From CNBC:
U.S. home sales post 12th straight monthly decline; house price inflation cools
U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.
The report from the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday also showed the smallest increase in annual house prices since 2012, which should help to improve affordability. It will, however, be a while before the housing market turns the corner.
Mortgage rates have resumed their upward trend after robust retail sales and labor market data as well as strong monthly inflation readings raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate hiking campaign through summer.
Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, when the nation was grappling with the foreclosure crisis. That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.
Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest, but rose in the South and West. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising to a rate of 4.10 million units. Home resales, which account for the biggest share of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January.
First ha!
U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January…
Sell? Sell to whom?
“Buyers are beginning to have better negotiating power,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.
Lmao! Sure, Larry. I have this house in Passaic covered in shit brown stucco; you may be able to get it at a bargain price of 400K.
Listed at 169K three years ago, currently at 325K… just dropped by 20K. Here’s your bargain. Margaux and Spencer will enjoy the diverse school activities:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paterson/570-e-23rd-st-paterson-nj-07514–2088579310
This one has the chop shop already in place. How convenient:
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paterson/94-n-7th-ave-paterson-nj-07524–2606652734
Margaux and Spencer will enjoy the diverse school activities
They’ll have their choice of gang placements being so close to the fabulous boulevards of Carroll and Godwin Streets. Such an exclusive neighborhood, the locals need to take down the street signs to keep the riffraff away.
In further news, thank G0d O’Biden signed that $1 Trillion dollar infrastructure bill! Building back better for the American people!!
https://tinyurl.com/25879b5s
They’ll have their choice of gang placements being so close to the fabulous boulevards of Carroll and Godwin Streets.
“Mom, Dad, I’d like you to meet Jigsaw. He’s very ambitious, works nights and is so sweet when he takes his anger medication regularly.”
Fast: Buyers are fleeing as rates inch toward 7 percent again, so goes the headline. Rates less than 7 percent, and people can’t handle them. Of course that’s what happens when you inflate the real estate market with rates of 3 percent.
WFH vs. Office is not a switch that is going to be flipped, anyone expecting some sort of universal decision of one way or the other is going to be sorely disappointed. Rooting for these like sports teams is idiotic, whichever team you are on.
Even Amazon – remember, they pushed all of their contact center and back office employees home, permanently, these associates will not be returning to office, even under this new ‘mandate’. Realistically, a huge swath of Amazon was always in office, supply chain can’t be done anywhere else but the warehouses. The reality of this will be department by department decisions around the best approach, and even interdepartmentally there will be a lot of variation. Amazon is squarely in the middle of this, leveraging both approaches where necessary. There is no either/or decision for Amazon.
The future of work is *all options*, this cat is not going back in the bag. The most successful companies aren’t going to be the ones that pivot one way or the other (to much press and fanfare), they’ll be the companies that understand the pros and cons of each model, and leverage those to differentiate, control cost, attract talent, build resiliency, etc.
That neighborhood by 23rd street between 10th and 11th is a tough location. Been disputed turf since a large drug bust in that location a couple of years ago.
Feel like there are some old network and server guys sitting at a messy desk in the corner of a raised floor data center thinking to themselves, “One day this cloud fad will be over, people will finally come to their senses, and we’ll be the heroes again. Can’t wait to be the one that says, ‘I told you so.'” The glory days of the in-house corporate data center are still to come! “Benny, reach down into the floor and pull me up a Tab, won’t you, it’s almost lunch.”
re: WFH…
Monthly NYC Subway turnstile entry stats for Jan 2023 vs Jan 2019.
135,822,840 JANUARY 2019
53,798,017 JANUARY 2023
39.61% COMPARISON
PATH train
6,518,679 JANUARY 2019
3,727,028 JANUARY 2023
57.17% COMPARISON
Any questions?
Fun fact, the name “Tab” was suggested by an IBM 1401 minicomputer when programmed to generate 4 letter word combinations that were ideal for product naming (they shortened Tabb to Tab).
God, I hope I’m not the guy in the corner.
$2,500 and $3,200 a month to live in Paterson?!?!?
Feel like the last time I went into NYC, and grabbed an earlier PA bus out, there were tons of early-shift trades guys heading out (I mean, that’s always been the case for the 2-4 timeslots), but I wonder how any of that headcount percentage have no other option but to commute today. That 39% isn’t entirely discretionary/optional.
re: : ” in-house corporate data center”
They are still having their conferences.
https://datacenterworld.com/
However tracks on how to uses AI and ML to actively manage cloud resource idle time effectively and cut cloud costs are a big trend.
Old realtor,
I always envisioned the section of Paterson where Valley Road goes from Clifton into the city as a village/artsy type neighborhood – the area by the hospital. I passed by there recently and see that they cleared out a bunch of houses on Barclay Street/Marshall Street and are doing substantial construction. Years ago, I thought about trying to buy one of those two/three family houses in that neighborhood but I know zero about being a landlord. I’ll stick to passive investing.
LOL, nearly half a million to live in Paterson! Someone is smoking the shit they sell on those street corners or it’s a scam.
Grim, couldn’t have said it better myself…
“… higher level work than the corporate would have ever released from on-site can, in fact, be performed entirely well off-site away from any corporate building and oversight. It will differ by industry, among participants in an industry, and even by department/function within specific corporates. Some will get there, some won’t, some shouldn’t.”
Agree on the hospital area being prime for gentrification, as opposed to something like the Eastside Park neighborhoods (old mansions).
$2,500 and $3,200 a month to live in Paterson?!?!?
This is North Jersey, it’s warranted.
“Some will get there, some won’t, some shouldn’t.”
Yep, spot on.
Work with a very traditional big bank entity. They were stalwarts of brick and mortar.
They are shifting to hybrid, compressed schedules, and work from home now. Can’t hire and retain otherwise. They denied it, kicking and screaming. They run something like 80% turnover in any given year now, which while seems shocking, isn’t actually the worst I’ve seen. There are plenty of low pay employers in the US that face north of 100% associate attrition every year. That’s the price you pay for mandating in-center work for low-skill/wage employees. It’s hard to understand what tangible benefits in-person brings, when nearly all of your staff turns over in any given year. Career pathing? Mentorship? Huh? Where? There are plenty of companies seeing 10% of candidates quit their jobs before their first day.
Plenty of the FANG-Style companies outsource today, a few of them mandated RTO over the last year. Almost universally, half of associates would rather quit than return to an office (and actually did quit when the mandate was handed down). These were good pay positions for well known companies.
Close friends with an interesting labor economist/professor – he thinks the magic number for domestic US labor is $30 – that’s what it’s going to take to mandate in-person work with reasonable attrition. I’ll tell you, $18 bucks doesn’t even remotely get there today – and I’m not talking Northeast or California, I’m talking about $18 in Ohio, Georgia, Nevada, etc.
Eddie that photo encapsulates so much of what’s wrong in this country – by both Parties over time…really nice photo all the way around…the green background, the obvious industrial decay, the temporary chains high above a river, the flammable sign, and the ADM markings…
The Left is so guilty for their inexplicably ridiculous governing priorities…infrastructure is crumbling but every bathroom now can accommodate the very confused one half of one percent of the population that can’t figure out their gender by putting their head between their knees…
The Repubs, especially the Establishment, are equally if not moreso at fault for being cowards and not standing up to this foolishness out of some combination of fear (being called the latest -ist), complacency, or simply lack of principle and not giving a fuck because they personally are fine.
A pox on anyone’s house who associates me with either….
Grim,
Understand that the unemployment rate is at record lows. If we had a higher unemployment rate, WFH conversation would be much different. See what happen if it changes….
Questions? I assume turnstile entry connotes paid fare. How about total entries?
Juice Box says:
February 22, 2023 at 8:01 am
re: WFH…
Monthly NYC Subway turnstile entry stats for Jan 2023 vs Jan 2019.
135,822,840 JANUARY 2019
53,798,017 JANUARY 2023
39.61% COMPARISON
PATH train
6,518,679 JANUARY 2019
3,727,028 JANUARY 2023
57.17% COMPARISON
Any questions?
Those who jumped the turnstyle always jumped the turnstyle. I doubt those numbers count.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/three-teens-20-year-old-wounded-in-shooting-at-notorious-paterson-street-corner/ar-AA17teRk?ocid=a2hs
That is some corner.
It’s the Hollywood and Vine of gangland.
lw – 8:32:
Spot on. Sums it up perfectly.
If we had a higher unemployment rate, WFH conversation would be much different.
Not anymore it wouldn’t, we’re long past robber barons mandating work options for the only factory in town.
That is some corner.
That’s the kind of neighborhood where outsiders are pulled over by cops and questioned.
Grim: You are correct of course.
I was in Paterson this past October, at the Browstone, first time in years. I could not understand why it was so dark, while blocks with little to no lights, either they are not there, or if they are they are not working. I would think it would be well lit.
I cannot see a reason or location for gentrification in Paterson. First issue is lack of public transportation. The location around the only train station was targeted for major redevelopment, but it never gained any traction. Specifically Market street between the train station and Main street. If this location with mass transit, restaurants and retail cannot establish a foothold for upscale redevelopment, it just isn’t going to happen. Paterson’s future is similar to it’s past, a jumping off point for immigrant communities. This doesn’t mean there won’t be redevelopment or that the city cannot improve, it just means it is never going to be gentrification.
Yea, let’s see when they can’t easily get a job. We have to acknowledge that this current labor market is anomaly. Even if WFH becomes the norm, it will send worker’s compensation tanking at some point for the same level of work (econ 101.. increases the competition for the job significantly as the pool of workers available to each company increases dramatically). Workers are not going to win in the long-term…they will get f’ed one way or the other.
I will say it again. I would not want a company that is 100% wfh. As a teacher, I know you can’t trust most workers to be self driven and ambitious in a work setting. I would jump in the cold Atlantic ocean before I take my hard earned money to invest in a company where I don’t see my workers. Hell, you have no idea who these individuals really are, never mind what they are capable of. Talk about a high risk investment. Putting a lot of trust in some digital employee who very well will become a liability as opposed to an asset.
grim says:
February 22, 2023 at 8:57 am
If we had a higher unemployment rate, WFH conversation would be much different.
Not anymore it wouldn’t, we’re long past robber barons mandating work options for the only factory in town.
Bottom line, if it was only about cost….then you hire all remote workers. Cheap isn’t always better…AT the end of the day, like musk knows and these other tech giants are slowly acknowledging, you need in person workers if you want performance/results. No way around it.
The Great Pumpkin says:
February 22, 2023 at 9:12 am
Yea, let’s see when they can’t easily get a job. We have to acknowledge that this current labor market is anomaly. Even if WFH becomes the norm, it will send worker’s compensation tanking at some point for the same level of work (econ 101.. increases the competition for the job significantly as the pool of workers available to each company increases dramatically). Workers are not going to win in the long-term…they will get f’ed one way or the other.
I have two reasons to go to Paterson.
The Lowes (for the 3.5% tax).
Car stereo repairs.
It’s a great cash only joint that doesn’t even have a sign on it. It’s basically a two car garage and the vestibule between the owners home and business serves as the office. There is an ATM at the bodega cattycorner to the business which I’m fairly certain belongs to the stereo shop owner. About 5 installers (kids really) smoke weed sitting in resin chairs in front of the closed garage doors. You pull up, they open the garage doors and close them like it’s a chop shop as you roll in and you do your business with the owner’s wife in the vestibule. You’ll be in an out in 15 to 30 minutes. No appointments taken. They do some crazy high end work too. And no, this isn’t a JJ story. Though, it easily could be if they serviced you instead of the car.
“Almost universally, half of associates would rather quit than return to an office (and actually did quit when the mandate was handed down). These were good pay positions for well known companies.”
Grim without breaking any confidences what was ‘good pay’ for these positions? Were there bennies (health, 401)?
“I assume turnstile entry connotes paid fare. How about total entries?”
Don’t think the ‘unpaid’ entries capture Juice’s point, which is workers returning to work…most workers are jumping, and I’m assuming most jumpers aren’t doing so to get to their jobs faster….
Grim: My wife’s company is finally putting together a hybrid plan, after the old timer partners fought it up and down. The younger partners and associates ( rain maker’s) demanded it. These are 2 income people , kids etc It’s a new world in the work world.
Wow, Ed that might be your finest work. The various drum colors pop off the picture and the depth of the entry against the one yellow wall. If you put a sleeping addict in the shot, it may be hanging in a gallery. Title “Moving Fast.” Subtitle “Susan said so”
Old,
“Been disputed turf since a large drug bust in that location a couple of years ago.”
In America, we call this opportunity.
I don’t think you care to understand, at all, and it’s not even like you are speaking from any kind of position of authority on the matter.
I just launched my second team of pure flex-work associates in the US, for a major, major brand in gaming. Not only do they work from home, but they get the ability to define their own schedules. There are some rules and conditions they must adhere to, and the flex is a two-way street, when we need you, we expect you to put in additional hours. The bid for hours is competitive, and performance weighs into the order of selection in a big way. You want the ability to control your schedule down to the hour, put in the effort and you’ll get it.
The feedback from managers and employees alike has been fantastic. Performance has been fantastic.
We have employees that have opted to work two weeks straight, because they wanted that schedule. We have folks splitting their days in 2, and heck, folks splitting their days in 3. Covering weekends was always a problem, but now, people are gladly taking 2-3 hour blocks on the weekends in exchange for more free time during the week. I have a huge pool of team mates that are literally begging for the opportunity to work 3×12 shifts (we don’t allow over 10 right now) and have 4 days off a week – hell, they don’t even care about having it overlap with a weekend or having all those days be consecutive.
Nobody wants to go back, and they are willing to work hard and perform well to keep this amazing privilege. They love the brand, they love their jobs, they love the customers/gamers they support, and now they love this crazy flexibility they have.
The performance numbers are nothing short of magic at this point, I’ve shared this with high level execs across many industries, and they are literally begging for the play-by-play on how to get this to work effectively.
I can give employees the flexibility of Uber, with all the benefits of a full (or part time if they desire) job.
Grim,
Has anyone even counted the number of business people who are permanent home workers? My old boss, head of Global Tax, moved to SC but still working at old IB. Two friends in compliance, used to go to each others kids parties before covid, now both working perm in FL. I had not seen them in years and looked on intranet. Another former co-worker moved to Jacksonville from Darien and still working for former IB. Businesses approved this sh&t like mad during pandemic. Now, they want to tech nerds to come in 3 days a week mandatory. Pure BS. It is all so uneven now. Our office is ghost town most days even with mandate.
The hottest topic right now for brick-and-mortar employers is schedule compression, 4×10 and 3×12. This is the best you’ll get in terms of offering schedule flexibility to in-person employees.
3×10-12 with a shifting “weekends” is another really hot topic right now (sometimes called 3 on 3 off).
Out of the rest of my ZIP short…that was a trade. LOL
BRT – I replied to you in yesterday’s thread. The plane is still at least half empty.
Grim,
How come productivity numbers are the worse they have ever been?
Why are companies profits being lowered if these workers are so productive on this model?
Better yet, why are companies raising prices if WFH is so productive? Where is the money going if they have to lower profits and raise prices?
Legions of tech companies have now been trying to get rid of these workers. Why?
How come productivity numbers are the worse they have ever been?
Productivity is not an issue in the circles I operate in, in fact, productivity is at all time highs. Ability to hire and retain is by far the biggest issue.
“Hey Benny, get ready, here they come!”
Just like the call centers, they sent them off and now they are bringing them back. As expected, Cloud is not the dream many companies thought it would be.
Grim, as always very much appreciate the datapoints from the ground…
Any ability to frame the comp/bennies on the tech ‘associates’?
Ditto for the gamers, or even the role?
Seriously interested, and maybe my need for more info arises from my interpretation of the overly used job title of ‘associate’, it being applied to the barista and bank teller through the Ivy undergrad/Booth MBA at an IB….
I’m assuming the roles you’re talking about are on neither end of that spectrum. Anything framework you can apply appreciated, or I can hit you up privately.
Grim,
My NY team of 4 (3 hourly and one salary), is never going back. Heck, all of us were WFH except for one, prior to the pandemic. We moved our 1st shift guy home (Malverne, Long Island) at the Pandemic onset and no one has returned to the office yet, except for manufacturing roles. Our company let go of one of their two midtown office spaces too.
By eliminating my team’s annoying Long Island or NJ to midtown commute, I have drastically improved employee flexibility. We use Workday to manage our schedule as well as payroll. We have a shared scheduler. I’m not even involved in making sure we have proper coverage. Though I do approve timecards after the fact, so I can see how much flexing of schedule is occurring. This increased flexibility in scheduling that WFH created has significantly reduced our need to pay overtime. This can’t happen when relying on public transit. I can only imagine how much we are saving on the elimination of late-night car service rides home for those who missed their last train.
As for the one employee I didn’t think could be trusted to work from home (our old 1st shift liaison to the other departments in our office), he had no idea how much better his life would be without the commute. We now pay for his home high speed internet and smart phone and he has become the most flexible worker of all of mine. Yes, I had to speak with him twice about being immediately available when necessary. But he always gets his work done on time which is what really matters. So he’s no worse than the office worker that is always out on a bathroom or smoke break. He always pings me back within ten minutes. It’s not ideal, but it’s not the end of the world either. And he was kind of like this when he worked in the office too which is what concerned me initially about letting him WFH.
My BIL, who lives with us, works for the Federal Government. He works a 4-day week now with 1 day every 2 weeks in the office in Newark.
Lib,
Maybe in your situation it works. I just can’t see starting a business and relying on everyone to be professional and working their hardest at home. Let’s be serious….working hard is dead. You think people want WFH to work hard for the company? Let’s get real. People are lazier than ever…no coincidence that these people demand to WFH as opposed to coming into work. Unions couldn’t even provide this….let that sink in. Used to be a mafia insider joke…no show job. Now how many people have no show jobs.
Whatever, it is what it is. It’s not even worth worrying about. I just don’t want to hear people crying about our economy not producing the fruits of production that it once did when no one even wants to show up for work and bust their ass.
“Busts their ass”, like the guy who posts incessantly all day, every day.
Show me where productivity is falling off a cliff because employees are not doing any work.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2023/nonfarm-business-productivity-down-1-5-percent-from-fourth-quarter-2021-to-fourth-quarter-2022.htm
I see a massive spike in productivity and output coinciding with Covid and WFH, and a little give back on the tail end of it. In fact, I’d argue it’s not necessarily give back when output is still growing (but at a slower rate).
You are making an argument that productivity and output are both falling, they aren’t. More realistically, it’s that the additional hours needed to be invested to increase production output is not linear to the previous run rate. This is a phenomenon that’s expected in hyper-optimized operations. Scaling upwards simply requires more time and effort to be invested. Running lean and mean means total resource optimization. If you change the input parameters (eg. require more output), why are you shocked for productivity to fall to achieve it? Think about it. Need to hire more workers, need to train more workers, need more space, need to expand operations, need to upgrade machinery and equipment, etc. All of these things are a drag on productivity compared to a hyper-optimized steady-state business.
Did you get an MBA, or did you get to associate without it?
leftwing says:
February 22, 2023 at 9:55 am
Ivy undergrad/Booth MBA at an IB….
I’m in my mid-30s, make north of 250K a year (that’s not a brag, I know it’s not that much compared to DINK couples and high earners), have 500K+ cash for down payment, and I can’t buy a move in ready house in a desirable area with a good school system for my family of 4. If I’m not buying, who is? I’ll continue to rent a house for 3500/mo. An equivalent house would cost me double to buy. This market is totally fucked
No MBA…caught a major market downturn shortly after getting hired, survived, many did not and as it occurred before application cutoff dates many others self selected to grab an MBA at that point and left. Excellent career move for me, totally by chance/luck, markets rebounded quickly, anyone with any level of experience was gone and deals were flying in…I got moved up as fast as the workload I could handle by time and knowledge (often with a frightening lack of the latter for the work I was performing). When everything shook out I was ‘ahead’ or at the very least equal in terms of my peers who went for an MBA and came back to the firms…
My ‘technical’ skills are beyond reproach, in part because of the foundation laid down by that early career Malcolm Gladwell ‘10,000 hours’….I do regret not pursuing an MBA as I did not get the benefits of the off-piste and top of the pyramid networking opportunities…on the latter, maybe perhaps because I have that deficiency, I do wish I had pursued one…let’s face it, top ten business graduates populate every major C-Suite 20 plus years later…having those pathways is something I wish I had, would have made later career much easier…
In any case I was always particular to law…did the LSATs, applied and was accepted by a very good school I would attend…in hindsight good that didn’t happen, practice of the law is very different than the theory of the law…all else being equal if I were a trust fund kid probably would have enthusiastically and happily become a law professor somewhere…
TMI in answer to your question but wtf, I’m just sitting here on my hands watching flashing colored lights on a screen next to this one…
Hybrid is the future. I have had a flexible arrangement for the last 8 years sometimes going months without being in the office, strangely enough only a few years before COVID did I really need to be in person to deal with a customer. I do think people who work together do really need to know each other though otherwise things can spiral out on a team and you’ll get dysfunction and it is easier to build a team dynamic when people occasionally see each other.
Frankly most people working from home log more hours because they don’t have to commute. With hybrid the employees don’t need to come in every day and the company can reduce their footprint.
The same workers dicking around in the office are dicking around at home being in the office doesn’t magically make people work, the smartphone really has given the sloths something to in the office other than work. At the end of the day you pay people to do a job, it’s kind of binary either they do it or they don’t, if they don’t add value you try to get them to add value if they cannot reform you cut them lose, it’s no different in the office or out what do you produce and does it provide more value than you cost. I had a boss years ago that wanted us at our desks on the trading floor pretty much at all times not talking, etc he would constantly be watching all of his employees and it was the least productive team ever, he couldn’t retain the good developers and the team was miserable 10 hours staring at a screen coding yet productivity was terrible. Don’t focus on what the employee does, focus on what they can produce and part of being a good manager is maximizing what they can produce.
Jcer: Been saying that for some time, you can goof in the office as well as at home if you want to. Of course one would have had to work in an office to appreciate that.
Anyone have any experience with recovery from a fractured ankle? Son at school fractured his this weekend in multiple places and has surgery set for Friday. Hardest part is that he is 8hrs away. Wife is driving down Thursday and may bring him back afterwards, still need to talk to the dr. It ended his rugby season which he was extremely upset about, and spring break in SC.
Jcer,
I just don’t trust human beings. Never will. People that claim that WFH workers work more because of no commute are full of chit. They are simply the knuckleheads going above and beyond, and mistakenly think everyone else is.
If every worker actually produced, there would not be enough jobs. Most people get paid to not do much. The damn truth. They like WFH because they can use that time they don’t do anything at work to sleep and do work around the house while getting paid instead of faking it like they are actually doing something. Most people in white collar jobs do maybe 4 hrs a work a day…if that. It’s no different than the hourly plumber who milks the chit out of his job. Charge 4 hours for the job, but really only takes an hour.
Thing is. The longer someone is at a job, the faster they become at doing their job. Took a long time for that plumber to gain the knowledge to do it that quickly, you think he is going to work faster at an hourly rate? So what do you think happens with WFH? These people have become so proficient at getting the bare minimum done to keep the job. So they do their chit in a couple of hours and then go about their day….really getting paid full time for a part-time job. Imagine an hourly plumber was given a job or two for the day with the option to complete it quickly and go home, yet still get paid 8 hrs…..no business owner would sign up for that, yet all the corporations are doing exactly this with their WFH/hybrid workers. Have a full time job where you only work a couple hours a day, but get paid for 8. Must be nice.
“Anyone have any experience with recovery from a fractured ankle? Son at school fractured his this weekend in multiple places and has surgery set for Friday.”
Ouch. Not to that degree. Complex and weight bearing. Pins? Sorry to hear.
Best advice is aside from a quality surgeon get a PT that really works for him…not just knowledgeable, but one that he can relate to and will listen to, that will push him to the proper degree but not beyond, etc. All about the recovery.
JCer said, “Don’t focus on what the employee does, focus on what they can produce and part of being a good manager is maximizing what they can produce.”
This is very similar to the tenet I follow and always get my supervisors and direct reports to abide by. Judge me by work I perform for the company. Don’t judge me on how I perform the work for the company.
Sweet suffering Jesus!!
Trick,
Where do you live (what town)? I know an absolutely amazing PT guy who works wonders with kids. He works out of Professional Performance in Montclair (behind Blackawanna).
https://doctor.webmd.com/doctor/kevin-duffus-5f54c6df-f212-499a-ab59-65a0abb76acf-overview
On the periphery of HY for sure and I can’t recall how the tunnel traffic flows but still…seems this is a weekly occurrence….RxR, Brookfield, Vornado yielding Penn St…the beat goes on…
https://commercialobserver.com/2023/02/chetrit-hudson-yards-newmark-default-sale/
Housing buyer demand lowest in 28 years
“Housing buyer demand lowest in 28 years”
Gonna have to lower those prices to sell.
Left, they have to put a rod with pins, fractured the bottom of both the tibia and fibula.
Lib, we are out in Long Valley, but he is down at Virginia Tech. Not sure where the PT will be but thanks for the link.
Left wing libor plus 10%?
Why not put it on a credit card and move it every 6-12 months. Think of all the points they would have earned too
“OwnNothing ”
Hang in there. Housing moves in long, long, cycles. I can’t remember the last time Home Depot said their forward guidance is soft, but that’s what they just said. Sit tight, come to papa!
Own Nothing
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
Lib: Lower prices? Even here? But we are special!
It happens here too. Just takes a little longer. Year over year sales in Vegas dropped over 60%. Second worst in the country. “Come to Papa.”
Right, I speak the truth, but you don’t like hearing it. You think workers would willingly fight for WFH if they worked more under it? Get real.
That a worker willingly drops a commute to take on more work for same pay? Yea, right!! Rotflmao.
I shouldn’t even care, but the fact is, it’s going to hurt our country long-term. We are becoming such pussies. Afraid of work. No, sorry, I can’t do that, it will impact my work/life balance. This is the downfall of what made America great…..a work ethic. Peace, it’s gone with the wind.
3b says:
February 22, 2023 at 1:42 pm
Sweet suffering Jesus!!
You won’t see lower real estate prices unless you see a bat to the head of this labor market. Aka a bat to the head of WFH.
And don’t tell me prices already dropped….again, I don’t give a crap about “avg sale price” in a market with zero inventory and almost no sales.
As I mentioned on my trips to FL the building there is insane…pads going in for eight or more buildings, a couple up and leasing at ‘luxury’ rates but giving a month free, and all the pads in place around the development for ancillary businesses…usually the Publix complex is already in and operating, the little strip mall is poured, and the major gas station is between on status…pulled up the CRE listing for one…650+ apartments done, 225+ SFH in-process or done, with 5,000 total units…nearly 200k of commercial leasable space
With that number of final units and just 2 people per that’s the size of my old NJ town…greenfield, and they’re popping up in this format everywhere.
Rod w/pins?
Sounds like an ex fix. That’s gonna be on the outside.
I was in Morris Plains NJ today. Now that is an area that has changed so much in the last 10 years.
Phoenix, Arthur’s is still there.
Dr said something like this
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/A-screw-fixation-method-for-syndesmosis-injury-A-Preoperative-radiographs-and-B_fig3_350590014
The trouble for the bulls is that this argument failed miserably last year. Back then every sign of a stronger economy meant lower stock prices, because it meant the Fed would have to jack up rates even more, and the economy would still, eventually, be hit.
This is where the second explanation comes in: Stocks may be in a new regime. Rather than being supersensitive to bond yields, especially real yields, they’ve moved on. Recession is at a minimum further off than previously thought, so stronger economic data means more profits, not just a tighter Fed. That dampens the impact of higher bond yields. Inflation has also come down as supply chains returned to normal, despite decent growth. Sure, there will be days like Tuesday, when economic figures are so strong that higher bond yields, and lower stocks, are inevitable. But yields have a lot less far to rise in the next year than they did last year.
I’m naturally sympathetic to the idea that this is just the tail-end of a dead cat bounce, something that happens frequently in long-lasting bear markets. Maybe there’s more to investing in stocks than just watching the bond yield—but it is hard to believe that bond yields barely matter any more.
Lib: This is the Feds fault, kept the party going for years!
Tampa area narrowly avoided disaster with last hurricane. No one seems to give a sh&t about Fort Myers and destruction caused bc only 90K people. Tampa area is like 3m. My pops is going to move in next few years. It nearly killed him sandbagging his entire home only to remove it. He knows clock is ticking..the big one will come to Tampa and NY/NJ red hat mooks will be crying to get out of dangerous FL. Glad they saved on taxes, only to pay 8K year in insurance. Free-dumb
Playing 3 rounds of golf and some tennis over the long weekend in FL, having lunch and dinner alfresco near the beach in 70 degree weather, that was nice. It’s a luxury lifestyle not all can attain.
I don’t plan to be around during hurricane season. Eventually every house anywhere gets torn down, one way or another. Insurance is expensive for sure, especially at the more desired places near water. Every place you live will have trade-offs, except of course Wayne NJ which is perfect in every way, except for a temporary lack of ping pong facilities.
Ooo, my dad did external fixators when he was at Howmedica and Stryker. I still have bins full of QC reject parts and a bunch of carbon fiber rods – it’s like a nerdy erector set.
No need to move to Paterson. Soon you can live in someone’s renovated garage or shed in Montclair.
https://montclairlocal.news/after-five-and-a-half-years-montclair-council-grants-final-approval-for-adus/
Charlie Bilello – delinquencies in credit rose in 22 and are now above pre-pandemic level.
Wonder what things will look like in 60-90 days given how sentiment on rates flipped in less than 2 weeks.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1628474482925895682?cxt=HHwWhICwicG6wJktAAAA
Better throw up a seven day (at least) minimum rental period for these dwellings or these ADUs will turn you into an AirBnB hell…
It has been only in the last 10 years that I have tapped the network to beneficial financial effect because there are so many senior people out there now. Before it was just cool being able to hang out with mid-career people across so many verticals.
As a great example, I can just tell Intel is fuct from the inside, because the senior people I know over there……. I try to pick their brains, and it is just shocking the lack of self-knowledge about what happened. Speaks volumes. That said, some of the best opportunities can be in a bone pile.
leftwing says:
February 22, 2023 at 12:08 pm
No MBA…caught a major market downturn shortly after getting hired, survived, many did not and as it occurred before application cutoff dates many others self selected to grab an MBA at that point and left. Excellent career move for me, totally by chance/luck, markets rebounded quickly, anyone with any level of experience was gone and deals were flying in…I got moved up as fast as the workload I could handle by time and knowledge (often with a frightening lack of the latter for the work I was performing). When everything shook out I was ‘ahead’ or at the very least equal in terms of my peers who went for an MBA and came back to the firms…
My ‘technical’ skills are beyond reproach, in part because of the foundation laid down by that early career Malcolm Gladwell ‘10,000 hours’….I do regret not pursuing an MBA as I did not get the benefits of the off-piste and top of the pyramid networking opportunities…on the latter, maybe perhaps because I have that deficiency, I do wish I had pursued one…let’s face it, top ten business graduates populate every major C-Suite 20 plus years later…having those pathways is something I wish I had, would have made later career much easier…
In any case I was always particular to law…did the LSATs, applied and was accepted by a very good school I would attend…in hindsight good that didn’t happen, practice of the law is very different than the theory of the law…all else being equal if I were a trust fund kid probably would have enthusiastically and happily become a law professor somewhere…
TMI in answer to your question but wtf, I’m just sitting here on my hands watching flashing colored lights on a screen next to this one…
Nomad,
I hear that we have capitalism in America. Businesses loved free money, 0 % loans and crazy spending for 2021-2022. Oz kept artificial punch bowl out too long. We will now hear the crying that things can’t go down and Fed must do something. Powell has the first hard work of his career. Some QE will come but wink, it will not be QE – Operation Twisted Panties or something.
By,
we will see how corporations do as their weighted cost of capital continues to rise and they have to run their organizations with free money. Consumers also tapping their 401k too so spending has to get squeezed harder. Would be interesting to know if the 401k $ is being spent on housing healthcare food or discretionary junk.
without free money
I swear I can’t understand how people tap their 401k to remodel their shacks and sleep well with CC balances in excess of one month’s salary. FFS, have some self control people.
Hybrid working set to push US office vacancies to record by 2030
Cushman & Wakefield forecasts 1.1bn sq ft of empty space in fundamental shift for commercial property
https://www.ft.com/content/ad2bfd65-0dd8-42d5-925b-0a53a6d80cb6
When out to dinner with my cousin in Tampa. He is about to retire from Northrup after over 40 years, his only job. My Dad was youngest of 10 so much older cousins. Interesting to hear their stories. He told that me that two others are quitting at same time – one 65 and retiring and the other was younger maybe 45 who is cashing in his 401k to start some marina/charter fishing company.
trick,
Where I work they wouldn’t call that “pinning” it.
We call that plates and screws. I’m familiar with Stryker and Synthes systems.
If he was near here I would have recommended someone. Hopefully all goes well.
I went outside yesterday to get my seedlings inside as we started to get pelted by an ungodly amount of marble sized hail. Heard a crazy wind sound but no wind in sight. Had to drive my son to an appointment in Hamilton. We missed that tornado by about 4 minutes apparently. Saw the debris line across 295.
Forgot about Arthurs, was there in my twenties. I was over by the Shop Rite, I remember when they built it. On Hanover ave.
Now it looks like East Hanover.
“I was always particular to law…did the LSATs, applied and was accepted by a very good school”
My father after his second retirement enrolled himself in law school. He said that he had always been a bar room lawyer and never found a topic he didn’t have an opinion on. I must take after my mother.
He did a few years and came up a few credits short of graduating. His biggest complaint was the grind. Each course was 100 pages a week of dry reading and analysis.
Great Job, Christie Whitman the Dotard.
No one will ever trust the Government/EPA thanks to you. And by the way you sucked as a Governor as well.
‘They told us Ground Zero was safe too – it wasn’t’: Lawyer for 9/11 cancer victims tells East Palestine residents they are RIGHT to be afraid… and warns toxic train derailment could cause an ‘explosion’ of illnesses for years to come
Michael Barasch represents thousands whose cancer has been tied to 9/11 dust
Trick, that B photo is almost what I have in my leg. I don’t have the long screw going into the Tibula. For me, I tore up all the ligaments and tendons in my foot.
The bone repair is the easy part. The PT is for the ligaments, tendons and the atrophy that comes from the immobilization. For me, I tore up all the ligaments and tendons in my foot and uncovered an old knee injury.
Fun part is that I went to Kayal Ortho and he did the operation. If you live in North Jersey he’s the one on all the Billboards. Looking around his business and it is WOW. Multiple offices, Multiple specialties. Op done in a private facility he part owns. MRI, XRay, PT all in house. Same day consultation. It is impressive.
https://kayalortho.com/about
Just catching up on this holy day. Jesus Grim take it easy on your cousin who cannot handle this reality. I thought years of transit data would be eye opening, but your explanation that nearly anything goes might make him a bit crazy….
If 100% in person until retirement is not his thing, it’s not too late for him to pivot away from his role and get into ed-tech.