From, uh, does it matter?
Tips To Win a Bidding War
In a seller’s market, when demand is high and inventory is low, buyers often have to go above and beyond to make sure their offer stands out from the competition. That, unfortunately, is increasingly becoming the case as of late. According to a Redfin survey in January, over 56% of buyers are facing bidding wars in their offers. And over two-thirds of offers written by Redfin agents in March faced multiple offers, according a separate survey released in April.
While there’s no science behind winning a bidding war on a house, there are things that you can do to increase your chances. Here’s what you can do as a buyer in a seller’s market.
- Work with an experienced real estate agent
- Be prepared and fully pre-approved
- Explore a fully underwritten pre-approval
- Raise your offer
- Understand your options around contingencies
- Button up your dates
- DON’T write a personal letter
- Finally, know when to say no
First
second
Or you could just wait for the excess inventory to hit the market as 2 million baby boomers are croaking every year now.
There is even a death clock… 5,560 Deaths Today.
https://incendar.com/baby_boomer_deathclock.php
Buyers with good credit will soon start paying higher mortgage rates. it’s only fair
News story today they tried to drone strike Putin outside Moscow on Sunday with 37 pounds of USA made C-4 explosives strapped to what looks like a toy Cessna type plane. If you are going to attempt to do that be prepared for massive retaliation, possibly even nuclear.
Dents
How much longer before that gets applied to other loans like cars and credit cards. You pay off your credit card every month? Well then you can afford a $25 a month fee for that card to lower the rate for others.
Buyers with good credit will soon start paying higher mortgage rates. it’s only fair
No different from uninsured motorist fees that car insurance companies charge.
They’ve realized they can’t get any money out of the deadbeats suing them. So someone’s got to pay?
Great article about the current NJ real estate market.
https://fortune.com/2023/04/25/new-jersey-housing-market-get-red-hot-again-real-estate/
Here is the whole thing..
Everyone’s fighting over crumbs’: New Jersey housing markets slip right back into the Pandemic Housing Boom
Elijah Hughes, a New Jersey–based real estate agent, is getting ready to put an offer down on a single-family, two-bedroom house in Clifton, N.J., for his client. But he’s not expecting it’ll win the bidding war, despite the offer being around $51,000 over asking. “It’s not even updated [and] needs a new kitchen,” Hughes told Fortune, adding later that the seller still “had 200 people at his open house.”
Hughes works primarily in Essex, Passaic, and Union counties, and occasionally in Hudson and Bergen counties, which are just outside of New York City. Each of those five counties experienced an increase in their average home value over the past year. Essex county’s average home value is up 5.1% over the last year, Passaic county’s is up 5%, Union county’s is up 3.8%, Hudson county’s is up 2.6%, and Bergen county’s is up 3.3% per Zillow. And, New Jersey’s average home value is up 5.9% over the past year. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s average home value is down 11.8% over the same period.
It’s clear that the housing market correction, mostly fueled by last year’s mortgage rate shock and currently losing steam, is milder in the East and sharper out West. But New Jersey housing markets, in particular, are getting surprisingly hot again.
“Overall where we’ve been a bit of an anomaly compared to the rest of the country is that our inventory remained very, very tight,” Stacy Esser, founder of SEG Realty, told Fortune. “Even when interest rates climbed…our inventory still remained very, very tight.”
As of last month, the share of homes for sale in New Jersey was down 19.2% year over year, and the number of newly listed homes was down 31.4% over the same period, according to Redfin, with only two months of supply. “At the end of the day, supply and demand is really going to move everything that happens in New Jersey,” Hughes said. “We have very real demand but very low supply.” And the bidding wars that became all too real at the height of the Pandemic Housing Boom seem to be in full effect in New Jersey, amid an uptick in demand.
Esser represented a seller with a house on the market during the summer of last year, listed for around $2.2 million. The seller accepted an offer for the asking price, but the deal didn’t end up closing and the seller chose to wait until spring. Fast-forward to this month, and after putting the house on the market again, it’s going to sell for around $2.5 million, Esser said. “We’re literally talking the difference [between] August and April,” Esser said, because demand has jumped back up but inventory hasn’t changed. Her agents have been saying that “it feels exactly like COVID,” with lines out the door during showings, multiple bids, and the listing price being the starting price. “Rates have taken a backseat,” Esser said, referring to something one of her agents tells her.
Neighborhoods within an hour’s commuting distance (if not shorter) to Manhattan are in particular seeing a lot of upward price action.
“This little northeast spot of New Jersey with access to the city has become like a sixth borough of New York,” Hughes said, adding later that other commuter markets within the state feed into Philadelphia. Esser put it simply: “Jersey offers you options,” and commuters from New York and Philly know that. Even South Jersey is seeing price increases as people move down south because the entry price point is lower, Hughes said.
But as mentioned above, demand has changed, as buyers have largely accepted 6% mortgage rates. “They’ve wrapped their heads around it,” Hughes said. “They’re not comparing it to the 3.5% that was out there before.” Still, those who have locked in those low rates, as Fortune has previously reported, are holding onto their homes. Esser called it a game of tug-of-war that “literally went nowhere,” leading to a standstill. That lock-in effect constraints supply, which, as we know, is already tight in New Jersey. “Everyone’s fighting over crumbs,” Hughes said.
“The last quarter of 2022 was tough for everybody…it just hurt people’s affordability so much,” Hughes said. However, demand wasn’t nonexistent; it was just on the sidelines. Now that rates have dropped slightly and tend to fluctuate around 6%, some of those sidelined buyers are back in. “That little bit of relief is enough for some people,” Hughes said.
“I don’t know why the market just unilaterally decided that 7% was too high, but between 5% and 6% was okay,” Esser said. “But that’s what happened.”
But again, supply is an issue, so if rates were to come crashing down, Hughes said, “it would be an absolute disaster; New Jersey would be an absolute disaster.” Still, New Jersey’s surprisingly hot market is not reflective of its sales, but rather its home sale prices, which Hughes said are “absolutely insane.” A single-family house in Montclair, a township in New Jersey, down the street from Hughes’ office, was listed for close to $1.1 million. The home sold for $1.73 million, he told Fortune. “The volume of sales may not be there in this year’s spring market, but you see that demand reflected in where the sale prices are ending up,” Hughes said. And in a market like New Jersey’s, sellers are not offering concessions like rate buydowns, which Hughes said are “almost like suicide out here.”
The sellers’ control of New Jersey’s market “f*cking sucks” for buyers, as Esser put it—noting that’s not the most professional way of putting it—because they’ve had to come to terms with the realization that the market isn’t going to become flushed with inventory, and those who’ve been sidelined are realizing that they’re just going to have to pay more. That’ll likely continue to drive home prices up, keeping the market hot, and “unfortunately that just means less affordable homes,” Esser said.
The credit rating policy if laughable. I mean, what was the point of a rating again? Maybe we can do the same for corporate debt?
I haven’t paid much attention to housing just because, I don’t care, I have nothing to gain from it. But the reality is, I’m trapped in my house. I got in at a great price in 2011 and refi’ed at the bottom of interest rates. Moving anywhere else in NJ would cost me insane amounts of money. I have a feeling a lot of people have landlocked themselves with these low rates for at least the next 10 years. I guess it puts a stranglehold on inventory. And yes, we keep getting NYC refugees looking to swoop in and buy anything to get out of the city.
Just free money.. what was meant to be “Temporary” has ballooned into $2.275 trillion. YES TRILLION in overnight free interest at 4.8% Yes ZERO risk money, it really does exist…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
Story..
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ny-fed-limits-types-firms-that-can-access-its-reverse-repo-facility-2023-04-25/
GDP in at 1.1
The naval ships in San Diego are god damned impressive.
3 carriers in town, a ton of destroyers, including some very fancy guided missile stealth destroyers.
Okay, lefty….how about this. Ballie is one the best investors in disruptive high growth companies. The fact that Ballie and ARK teams, two of the best disruptive investing teams love DNA, says all I need to know. That fact that 90% of the stock is held by institutions is a powerful thing. They know more than you and I. They obviously see something here. Read this.
“Cast your mind back to being told you couldn’t see friends or family because of Covid, or to a time your travel plans were disrupted because a plane was cancelled at the last minute.
Such situations upset us because our brains are wired to cope with slow, predictable change. It’s no wonder we’re so disturbed by sudden circumstances beyond our control.
That’s how Kirsty Gibson, joint manager of both the Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust and American Fund, explains the anxiety about prospects for growth investors in these turbulent times. We humans prefer structure and, ultimately, control.
Gibson is aware of the how uncomfortable market volatility can be for many investors. But she nevertheless believes that unpredictability is something we must learn to accept – or even embrace.
“The past year has been a very uncomfortable time to be a growth investor but it’s also a very exciting time to be one.”
“We’ve had a lot of questions about bubbles and overheating and growth-versus-value, questions that are well-founded. But these questions reflect the idea of the human need to believe that change should be incremental and that we’re heading to a period of stasis, where all that change is bedded down and we can begin to relax into a new normality. But what if we are just at the tip of the iceberg of change?”
Imaginative leaps
For Gibson and colleagues, the job of an investor seeking companies capable of outsize returns in turbulent times is to stop hoping for steady incremental growth. Nor should they draw over-simple analogies from what happened with previous disruptive businesses.
Instead, she advocates “opening your mind to the possibility of what a business can become and what it can achieve, which is often very different to what it is doing today.”
Making that imaginative leap requires us to work against another hard-wired human instinct: the tendency to structure the world around us according to familiar patterns that help us feel more in control.
“We need to break out of that and think about things in a completely different way. While we have to accept we can’t predict the future, that doesn’t mean we can’t hypothesise about it.”
For Gibson and her team, framing the ‘what if…?’ questions should be central to a growth investor’s job. Another is finding the businesses that can exploit new the realities of a rapidly changing world.
“The key characteristic to look for in a great growth business is adaptability: the ability of a management team to alter their path to navigate different situations.”
That, she argues, often comes down to leadership qualities.
“Most companies where you have a really strong founder leader are much more capable of adapting. One example is Ginkgo Bioworks, led by Jason Kelly. When we first invested in Ginkgo it was a private company aiming to put the tools of biology into human hands and was focused on the flavour and fragrance industries.”
“Now six or seven years later, the now-listed company is active in agriculture and pharmaceuticals, monitoring for pathogens such as Covid. The management team has adapted and the business has evolved as the opportunity set has grown.””
https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/ic-article/2022-q4-embracing-the-unpredictable-10016323/
leftwing says:
April 26, 2023 at 8:47 pm
The below is supposed to be an investment case for DNA. Read it. Like don’t just scan it and go ‘yeah’, read it with discerning eye.
It was written by a 19 year old. At best. With a few grand of net worth, on a good day.
C’mon man….
“DNA has a formidable team of young talented Ivy league caliber scientists, they are maturing , they have a very clear sense of direction compared to prior years , it is just a matter of time before Ginkgo erupts as a disruptor…”
Esp focus on this….
“Most companies where you have a really strong founder leader are much more capable of adapting. One example is Ginkgo Bioworks, led by Jason Kelly. When we first invested in Ginkgo it was a private company aiming to put the tools of biology into human hands and was focused on the flavour and fragrance industries.”
“Now six or seven years later, the now-listed company is active in agriculture and pharmaceuticals, monitoring for pathogens such as Covid. The management team has adapted and the business has evolved as the opportunity set has grown.”
Staying ready for change
Amazon is a better-known example Gibson uses to illustrate the difficulty of envisaging future breakthroughs. Its origins as an online bookstore gave few clues that it would eventually earn such a large part of its revenue from Amazon Web Services (AWS), a cloud computing platform. But the organisation’s culture enabled it to keep pace with the sudden shifts that cloud technology enabled, a capability based on the experiences and attitudes of its founders.
That culture encouraged Gibson and colleagues to build a strong conviction in the company’s ability to defy the usual step-by-step path to development and take bold, transformative decisions as the opportunity arose.”
Now imagine if this black swan event never came that causes supply chains to get slammed and cause inflation. Imagine this housing market with much lower rates. This was pumpkin’s roaring 20s 2.0 call driven by real estate….it would have been dead on. Look how strong it is still with high rates. Remarkable call.
“Tips To Win a Bidding War
In a seller’s market, when demand is high and inventory is low, buyers often have to go above and beyond to make sure their offer stands out from the competition. That, unfortunately, is increasingly becoming the case as of late. According to a Redfin survey in January, over 56% of buyers are facing bidding wars in their offers. And over two-thirds of offers written by Redfin agents in March faced multiple offers, according a separate survey released in April.
While there’s no science behind winning a bidding war on a house, there are things that you can do to increase your chances. Here’s what you can do as a buyer in a seller’s market.”
Exactly what I said would happen. I gave you the years almost a decade out. I said millennial bloc will overwhelm supply….and here we are. What’s scary is the future of real estate pricing after this decade….demographics do not favor the long-term if population growth comes to a crawl. North jersey should be immune to this, but not the rest of the country, but too difficult to draw conclusions.
““We have very real demand but very low supply.” And the bidding wars that became all too real at the height of the Pandemic Housing Boom seem to be in full effect in New Jersey, amid an uptick in demand.”
9. Learn to s*ck a c*ock
I love these articles..
It’s all about the flow of funds and the trend is not Cathy’s friend.
ARKs AUM is now below 7 Billion. 6.629B exactly about 1/5th of where it was only 2 years ago and they lost nearly 2 Billion in the last month.
I would expect them to fold funds soon enough their management fees are expensive, people will continue to shift away…
I mean, the bright side is they aren’t recommending feeding the squirrels yet.
“The key characteristic to look for in a great growth business is adaptability: the ability of a management team to alter their path to navigate different situations.”
Says the absolutely dumbest fund manager Wall Street has ever witnessed while being on top of the world and then relegated to the landfill for not doing exactly what she is praising Gingko for.
Wood’s a much better marketer than she is a performer.
Disruptor, sheesh. What the fuck is a “disruptor?” It’s a buzzword. Like “Cold-Filtered,” or “Monetization!” KW has turned a business buzzword into a sector for fools.
Here is an example of an incredibly dangerous DeSantis.
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/evolution-of-florida-vaccine-analysis?
He fired the accomplished Florida Surgeon General to be replaced with a quack who ignored the basic principles of science and trumped the findings of a non-scientific, non-peer reviewed study which dismissed the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines. It sure sounded good when DeSantis was the Anti-Covid protection Governor. But it was completely manufactured bullshit, to fit his position.
And the right blows a fuse with every mention of Fauci?
ARK’s only saving grace is that it has become a trading vehichle for non-profitable tech. It was a fantastic proxy for shorting and it’s a good proxy for playing bounces as well. That’s why you see inflows during certain periods. But overall, inflows match outflows which tells you, no one is actually interested in holding it long term.
It’s out. Looks like Norway played a big part as well.
Thank you whistleblowers.
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
NAR reports pending homes sales down -5.2% from last month and Northeast down 8.1% from last month.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-decreased-5-2-in-march
grim says:
April 27, 2023 at 9:12 am
The naval ships in San Diego are god damned impressive.
3 carriers in town, a ton of destroyers, including some very fancy guided missile stealth destroyers.
Or 4 commercial planes that took out the World Trade Center buildings.
America may have the watch, but their enemies have the time.
Ruh roh, Raggy.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seizes US-bound oil tanker ‘Advantage Sweet’ in international waters in Gulf of Oman
Oh my META, lol…took half off because at 90 -> 240, why not.
VLY shorts likewise took almost half off…not sure how far down these go, if they’ll even break into the 7s, especially with the Fed presumably pausing in May…also the call is at 11:00a which is usually a positive intraday event as management can explain away shitty results.
Through my ATH band pretty solidly into new territory I expect will hold.
Need ideas. Longs or shorts.
Why exactly do you call something a disruptor when it hasn’t ever disrupted anything?
Generally, the obvious “disruptors” don’t ever do any real “disrupting”.
10:51 Jerry Springer…?
Jerry Spring was a disruptor. A disruptor of common sense. Though, he did bring the term “babymomma,” into the vernacular.
This wasn’t ark team. This was Ballie…
Libturd says:
April 27, 2023 at 9:52 am
“The key characteristic to look for in a great growth business is adaptability: the ability of a management team to alter their path to navigate different situations.”
Says the absolutely dumbest fund manager Wall Street has ever witnessed while being on top of the world and then relegated to the landfill for not doing exactly what she is praising Gingko for.
Wood’s a much better marketer than she is a performer.
Disruptor, sheesh. What the fuck is a “disruptor?” It’s a buzzword. Like “Cold-Filtered,” or “Monetization!” KW has turned a business buzzword into a sector for fools.
And they are damn good at what they do.
These guys don’t f/k around, lib.
https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/ic-article/2022-q4-embracing-the-unpredictable-10016323/
ExEx,
Springer, Povich, Morton and others were funny at the start. But you could say that they raised shamelessness to high art and lowered the societal bar that we are seeing today in societal apathy, stability, selfishness and lack of overall health.
Take out Povich, Murdoch, the remaining Koch brother, Trump, Mitchell, and other boomer sell outs. All of them are in the grim reapers really short list and I think we might have hit bottom.
The bar will now be raised. Even South Park picked up on that a few years ago,
https://youtu.be/8PJGeF2J7tc
Ballie Gifford is one of the few houses willing to mirror KW with their own disruptive mutual funds. Are you surprised that they would back her, at least verbally?
You are such a sucker.
Now this is a laugh. The irony.
https://youtu.be/ATY0KhMSOfY
What is a disruptor? A company that comes out and changes the way things are done. They take out old economies and create new ones. DNA is disrupting how things are manufactured. Manufacturing is ripe for massive disruption due to huge gains in biology and AI. Synthetic biomanufacturing is a game changer in the evolution of the human species.
“Buyers with good credit will soon start paying higher mortgage rates. it’s only fair…”
DD, you’ve been around long enough to know when liberals use the word ‘fair’ if you reside in the tax bracket that already pays disproportionately more taxes than the rest of the population you better run, because the liberal idea of ‘fairness’ is taking more of your hard earned money and distributing it to those who are neither hard working nor earners…
“How much longer before that gets applied to other loans like cars and credit cards.”
Already in health insurance in every market…the only way Obamacare worked was forcing the healthy young to carry insurance they didn’t need to cover the costs of insurance for all…also, buddy of mine at a major corporate tells me his company is even worse, if a professional and a secretary have the exact same plan the exec will pay more for that identical coverage given he earns more….
So was 3-D printing. Know anyone living in a 3-D house?
If everyone thought like you, we would still be riding around in horse and buggies. Glad some people have the balls to take their money and change the world.
Just remember when you used to laugh at FAANG stocks. Now you buy them.
Libturd says:
April 27, 2023 at 11:28 am
Ballie Gifford is one of the few houses willing to mirror KW with their own disruptive mutual funds. Are you surprised that they would back her, at least verbally?
You are such a sucker.
You will always get punished for being successful….like Rand pointed out, resentment is a biatch. If you are successful, the resentment crowd will always have their hand out. Comes with the territory.
“How much longer before that gets applied to other loans like cars and credit cards.”
Already in health insurance in every market…the only way Obamacare worked was forcing the healthy young to carry insurance they didn’t need to cover the costs of insurance for all…also, buddy of mine at a major corporate tells me his company is even worse, if a professional and a secretary have the exact same plan the exec will pay more for that identical coverage given he earns more….
11:05 a trail blazer!!
11:34 correction: you’ll always get punished for losing other people’s
Money.
What is a disruptor? A company that comes out and changes the way things are done. They take out old economies and create new ones. DNA is disrupting how things are manufactured. Manufacturing is ripe for massive disruption due to huge gains in biology and AI. Synthetic biomanufacturing is a game changer in the evolution of the human species.
You are confusing disruptive technologies with disruptive companies.
Just because a company purports to leverage a disruptive technology, doesn’t make them a disruptor. In fact, you should probably question that as a red flag, especially if they did not invent the technology, and hold IP/patent rights on the specific technology (and not adjacent patents).
Tell me how DNA is not a disruptive company.
“The fact that Ballie and ARK teams, two of the best disruptive investing teams love DNA, says all I need to know.”
First, I don’t have the time today to fully entertain your ADHD on this topic so I’ll keep it brief….
Ballie, hard to navigate their site, but where I suppose they house their growth companies is in their US equity growth fund which since inception has under performed the Russell 1000 Growth Index (their self identified benchmark) by three percentage points annually (c. 12% v 15%). That is a huge underperformance gap to begin with, and even worse that it is relative to an index.
Also, as Lib says, don’t be a sucker….Ballie identifies, and you post, that they are in DNA since it was private. They are talking their book. No different than your real estate telling you to ‘buy now or be priced out forever’.
Regarding ARKK being the best among growth investors, LOL. She is among the worst, few managers have lost more people more money. Ever. Plus she is an incompetent neophyte investing in incompetent neophyte management teams while acting as a siren song to attract incompetent neophyte newbie investors to her funds. Her latest greatest hit of incompetence? She is dumping SHOP and another stock as she discovers – after quarter end – that her funds don’t meet quarterly regulatory requirements for her to invest other people’s money because of portfolio concentration….if she were a GC her construction projects would fall down, or be red tagged by the municipality. Or she’d fully landscape the lot before construction begins and tell you how ‘disruptive’ it was to do so as trucks and backhoes rumble up the new yard….
Regarding DNA specifically, one last time…they may be a game changer, they may not be, only time will tell….but one thing we know is valuation and results matter, and are intertwined…
Their results are telling you right now they are not the game changing company envisioned as they miss their own near term revenue forecast by a massive 100%…regarding valuation, even with their prior rosy business plans they were wildly overvalued, now with the cuts…..
Again, you (and CW) would do well to learn one of the first things taught regarding investment which is a company and the company’s stock are two very different things….valuation matters.
Why did big time institutions (they own 90% of the company) invest at $10? Was it overvalued….sure, does this mean it will never get there? They ran into a terrible macro environment right now. What company hasn’t been beat to chit in bio sector due to high rates? What high growth hasn’t been beat to chit due the massive increase in rates in a short period of time? Hell, how many banks will survive that unexpected change of environment with high rates?
DNA is run by the most gifted minds on the planet when it comes to synthetic bio manufacturing. Current price doesn’t matter to me that it dropped 90% because price of the company stock is currently a “popularity contest” and not based on value. Did the price matter when it was overinflated at $15 dollars? This is early stage, and price is always driven by “popularity contest” and macro environment (specifically rates). When we are in an environment of lowering rates as opposed to rising, this thing will fly. The lemmings will all be piling in. Trick is to get in before the lemmings do…that means buying blood in the street. Have to buy when most don’t want to. This is how real money is made.
-478m total revenue in 2022 (52% growth over 2021).
-59 new Cell Programs added in 2022 (90% growth over 2021)
Understand the more data they get, the more they plug into AI….aka the more powerful it becomes. They have a enormous lead on their competition to the point that I don’t see how any can catch up.
What is the terrible macro environment for synthbio? What would a positive macro environment for synthbio look like?
Understand in a high rising rate environment, stocks with no profit get destroyed. That creates a buying opportunity if you believe this will become a great company in the future. I believe DNA fits this mold. So, I will hold my nose and buy/hold. Cathie has been buying the chit out of it. Must mean something, but hey, bash her instead of being open minded and questioning why she is buying so much now.
“VLY shorts likewise took almost half off…also the call is at 11:00a which is usually a positive intraday event as management can explain away shitty results.”
Stock up 5% since the call began an hour or so ago…anyone follow me long?
:)
One in which rates are dropping will be the first sign of this environment. Rates will be dropping, signaling an end to the bear market and a coming bull market. By the time rates are dropping (likely when recession hits), it will likely be too late to get the best prices in a stock like DNA. They will be rising while safe stocks that are profitable with very little growth will be taking it on the chin for the final bottom.
Libturd says:
April 27, 2023 at 12:19 pm
What is the terrible macro environment for synthbio? What would a positive macro environment for synthbio look like?
“Springer, Povich, Morton”
All funny until you work near the Stamford forum where shows are made, go out for lunch and place is packed with adult Americans from across country, who took vacations to see the shows. Lines around the block to get in. That is f-in sad.
“Why did big time institutions…invest [in DNA] at $10?”
You do understand how SPACs work, right? They got units, meaning shares plus warrants. The warrants separate and they sell out. Likely netted 10% overnight on just the warrants, then dump the shares at par. I’ll check and see where I exited the warrants.
“Was it overvalued….sure, does this mean it will never get there [back to $10]?
You will have great grandchildren before this thing sees $10 again.
“478m total revenue in 2022 (52% growth over 2021).”
Ignore the COVID revenue, even the company tells you to do so. The underlying foundry revenue only grew 20% and they now forecast something like $175m for 2023 which was previously around $350m.
Growth companies that don’t grow – and are cash flow negative – overwhelmingly do not end well. That revenue miss is pretty epic, and 20% growth is downright tepid.
“Cathie has been buying the chit out of it. Must mean something, but hey, bash her instead of being open minded and questioning why she is buying so much now.”
I, along with others here like BRT, very much follow CW, question her buys, and then make A LOT of money doing the opposite, ie. shorting her buys. Quite appreciate her views and what they mean.
The biotech sector is witnessing the headwinds from the banking crisis, layoffs, and the Inflation Reduction Act. So, fundamentally weak biotech stocks Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) and Novavax (NVAX) might be best avoided. Read on.
The biotech industry thrived during the pandemic. However, despite robust demand, the industry is currently pressured by macroeconomic headwinds and layoffs. Hence, let’s take a look at biotech stocks Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA) and Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) and discuss why it’s best to steer clear of these stocks.
More than 7,000 individuals lost their jobs in biotech companies in 2022. Moreover, the sector reported 1,449 layoffs in January 2023 alone. There were 174 in the same month a year ago. So far this year, 19 biotech companies have announced job cuts.
According to data provided by Biogen Inc. (BIIB) Chairman and former Cowen & Co. Vice Chairman Stelios Papadopoulos, biotech raised $1.57 billion in IPOs last year, a decrease of more than 90% from $16.50 billion in 2021.
Looks like a bad BARD AI result….or typical CW level of analysis….
“entrepreneur” magazine left-ismo
Are they adding programs? Do you understand how fast this can change? Are they not growing? You are so focused on the profit, and not the growing business model. Answer this simple question? Is their platform much strong now than 3 years ago? Did they bring down costs significantly? Are they growing partnerships? All of this is meaningless?
Also, thanks to covid, they have now become the leading bio company when it comes to bio security detection. That’s what Ballie was talking about with this company….can they move and adjust like amazon did (book store to cloud provider)to take advantage of opportunities?
Lefty, you continue to focus on fundamentals and profit when that is meaningless at this stage. What fundamentals matter right now….the ability to grow into something truly special. That is there and that’s all that matters to me. Some of the smartest people on the planet aren’t putting their lifework into a failure. These people will be successful…I am willing to put my money on them. What they have achieved already is simply amazing. What they will do in the future will be downright epic.
“Ignore the COVID revenue, even the company tells you to do so. The underlying foundry revenue only grew 20% and they now forecast something like $175m for 2023 which was previously around $350m.
Growth companies that don’t grow – and are cash flow negative – overwhelmingly do not end well. That revenue miss is pretty epic, and 20% growth is downright tepid.”
Isn’t this the environment that provides life changing opportunities? Yes, you can lose your shirt, but you can also absolutely kill it.
When they are telling you to not buy…it’s a beautiful signal. It’s screaming opportunity if the company works out. All the lemmings will read it and not want to buy giving you access to undervalued shares.
I have conviction that what these MIT kids developed is going to be special. They are hitting their 40s now aka their prime. I am going to ride them to the promise land.
ExEx says:
April 27, 2023 at 12:41 pm
The biotech sector is witnessing the headwinds from the banking crisis, layoffs, and the Inflation Reduction Act. So, fundamentally weak biotech stocks Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings (DNA) and Novavax (NVAX) might be best avoided. Read on.
The biotech industry thrived during the pandemic. However, despite robust demand, the industry is currently pressured by macroeconomic headwinds and layoffs. Hence, let’s take a look at biotech stocks Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA) and Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) and discuss why it’s best to steer clear of these stocks.
Yeah, millions dead. $16T in economic damage. Trampling all over the constitution and violating the Nuremberg laws, while profiting. Destroying public trust in science and vaccine programs. The people who have a problem with Fauci are irrational. Let’s all just move on.
But why would FL need to doctor vaccine data. I don’t get it.
Tell me how DNA is not a disruptive company.
What have they actually disrupted? What industries have they dislocated, what companies have been disintermediated? Where are they wholesale taking market share from traditional players in their space? How many competitors have they put out of business?
27% revenue growth in their actual business (not the covid testing nonsense)? How much of that was due to the acquisitions they made, vs actual organic growth of their main product line?
How is their product at all disruptive when it generated $144 million in 2022, and they are only projecting $175 million in revenue in 2023?
That’s fucking 21% year over year growth versus the 27% they did in the previous year.
THAT’S SHRINKING.
WITH ACQUISITIONS (AKA BUYING REVENUE).
Where’s the fucking disruption?
I’d imagine 100% growth, 200% growth, 300% growth year on year, and I’d consider what they were doing as being DISRUPTIVE TO THEIR INDUSTRY.
Stupid executives in the biotech and pharma industries just doesn’t understand the value of their product?
“I am going to ride them to the promise land.”
You already have. They promise. You swallow it up. But they don’t deliver.
Macro environment? No?
They are still growing in a terrible f/ing environment for small high growth companies in bio sector.
Why not focus instead on how far they have come? They are billion market cap company from nothing. They hold 1.3b in cash. AI is growing at a rapid pace and this company relies significantly on AI. Look at the big picture.
grim says:
April 27, 2023 at 1:22 pm
How is their product at all disruptive when it generated $144 million in 2022, and they are only projecting $175 million in revenue in 2023?
That’s fucking 21% year over year growth versus the 27% they did in the previous year.
THAT’S SHRINKING.
WITH ACQUISITIONS (AKA BUYING REVENUE).
Where’s the fucking disruption?
Grim, are their partnerships not growing significantly? Look at the big picture or piss all over it. Up to you. This company is special, and I am surprised you can’t see it. I expect it from lib as he has always bashed any up and coming company. He bashed tesla, faangs, and crypto all last decade on this blog. He is cheap…cheap people will never ever invest in risk. They will only invest in low risk sure shots with growing profit. They never make a ton of money, but they never lose. He will be investing in DNA next decade.
Understand that I am trying to take a small percentage of my net worth and trying to make real money.
You will never make real money at a time you can use it and appreciate it, unless you take risks. Otherwise, your kids will enjoy your money if you go the safe route…you will never get to enjoy it. If that’s what you want, more power to you. I have one life to live, I am trying to make money to enjoy life…not die with it.
I have one kid….She is set no matter what. DNA can go to zero, and she will still be set when I die. She will be set when I am alive in my 60s. I will have a pension, social security, and passive income from investments. Can just give her the income from my rental and she will be fine, or just sell the property straight up. Look at the big picture. I am in position to take risks with a portion of my net worth. So, I will. Why wouldn’t I?
Phoenix,
If you need to talk to an empathetic redhead, try this.
https://twitter.com/frantzfries/status/1651316031762071553
Pumps, I think you’d be wise to leverage the investment expertise on this board.
Ex,
I respect them all. That’s why I reply. I know they are smart and good at what they do. That doesn’t mean that I abandon my conviction. I abandoned my conviction in the past due to noise like this, and it cost me dearly. I am not making that mistake ever again.
Some of the best investments are the ones that are the hardest to make. A “good investment” never looks like a “great” investment when you are making it…understand this. If it looks good, everyone already piled into it and time to sell is coming as they overinflate it (your bubbles).
You have to take advantage of these bad macro environments when it comes to investing. This is the load up zone. They don’t come often. When they do, you have to take advantage to get ahead.
You guys all obsess over bubbles….how dumb people are to be buying at the top. Well, why don’t you obsess with the opposite conditions….when a bubble happens on the sell side. When they oversell to the point that it doesn’t even make sense…have to be dump not to buy.
DNA is real or they wouldn’t have 1.3 billion cash on hand. They have some of the smartest minds in the game working on this company’s mission. Why bash? Take a risk.
Blumpy smart..wait for next Fed lickuidity cycel..derr.
Joe the Banana,
To answer your question. DeSantis numbers were the real numbers that the fake science people were trying to hide.
In fact this is factual proof below. I just got my weekly MMWR email in my Warlock, Demons & Witches folder. You might have problems understanding it because us real truth believers only can count to 10, you know the number of toes. Some of us only count to 6 or 8, because diabetes took some away.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7217a3.htm?s_cid=mm7217a3_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM104037&ACSTrackingLabel=This%20Week%20in%20MMWR%20-%20Vol.%2072%2C%20April%2028%2C%202023&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM104037
As of right now, Ballie Gifford owns 18% of this company. What do they know that we don’t? Don’t tell me that they are suckers or don’t understand investing.
Ark owns 12% followed by Vanguard group at 7.5%.
When they were yelling and screaming that Facebook is dead…blah blah blah. What should we all have been doing? Meta dead now?
Huge market day and DNA is about to hit it’s all time low. My Vertex Pharma continues to hit record highs and still looks undervalued.
Someone that gets it.
“For as much as I love the beaten down cheap areas of this market like #biotech and some areas of #tech, I still see some areas that are massive bubbles. I can’t believe this bull market is officially over until even the last bastion of bubbles pop. I looked at some companies in the #AI and #cloud and #cybersecurity space. Even after the selloff, these companies trade at 30% to 100% above any realistic values. Even $MSFT trades at 40x earnings. I don’t see how we get a new bull market when only half the market is cheap. It is definitely a stock pickers market for long term buyers. I am going start doing my value vs bubble threads again. I started doing them back in 2021. That way I can call out what might be worth buying and what might want to be avoided.”
How many layoffs at meta? Gutting your company will look good for a quarter.
[EXPLETIVE]… I scrolled past so many biotech posts that my index finger cramped. At one point, I glanced at my address bar to see if I was in the right place.
People are starting to wake up.
“$DNA 👀been just getting worked hard
1.9B mkt cap with 1.32B in $ with some really sophisticated investors
Ballie is one of the most successful investors in disruptive new tech
Time to put on watch list for 3 day signal or hold nose and buy under 1$
Getting juicy for big bounce”
Drop the mic….DNA baby. The “iOS of Synthetic Biology” is music to my ears.
“The iOS Of Synthetic Biology is here. And Thanks to this incubator, the apps are rolling in”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johncumbers/2023/04/26/the-ios-of-synthetic-biology-is-here-and-thanks-to-this-incubator-the-apps-are-rolling-in/
“As of right now, Ballie Gifford owns 18% of this company…Ark owns 12%…What do they know that we don’t? Don’t tell me that they are suckers or don’t understand investing.”
They very well understand investing, knowing that with a combined 30% of the company they have absolutely zero chance of realizing any liquidity until and unless they get a ton of new investors involved….as such discount anything they say as a result….entirely self interested.
Cathie has a whole sh1t ton of tiny companies where she owns over 10%. DNA is just one of many. After she was boosted up by Hwang, the inflows came in like a broken dam and she thought she could make her own magic in a bunch of small unknown names. She ended up pumping those up as well with her buy buy buy strategy and they all reverted to the mean. Now she owns them and you may see some real fireworks if outflows happen and she has to liquidate those positions. She spent the better part of the past two years selling large caps to try to avoid this. All it takes is a move from this sideways market that has lasted a year to make that happen. It’s really a question of how long can Microsoft, Google, Facebook, and Amazon keep the rest of the market above water.
For what it’s worth on indicators, I have 17/18 year old high school students that have switched from Draftkings to betting on the market. I watched kids buy Tesla a few weeks ago about 10 minutes prior to a 5% drop from 191 now sitting at 160. Another kid today was pimping biotech small caps. I’d say the end is near.
It’s a nightmare for a fund group to own 18% of a company. Even the old Janus Funds of 25 years ago weren’t that reckless. But that’s how BG has become. They brag about it in their advertising, calling it “actual investing” implying everyone else isn’t.