From the Real Deal:
Jersey boys: Valley Bank emerges as lifeline for NYC real estate
For a few weeks in March, it seemed like 2008 all over again.
The tech industry’s go-to lender, Silicon Valley Bank, was seized. Depositors rushed to pull money out of Signature Bank, one of New York’s top multifamily lenders. First Republic, a major commercial real estate lender on the West Coast, was teetering on the brink.
New York City landlords were panicking. Another bank failure seemed imminent, and the survivors were bailing on real estate. The industry braced for a capital markets freeze like the one 15 years ago, which left stalled projects and developers scrambling for rescue financing.
Ira Robbins, though, seems unfazed. In late March, the 48-year old head of Valley Bank, a New Jersey-based lender with $57 billion in assets and overwhelming exposure to commercial real estate, sat in his immaculate office at One Penn Plaza with its panoramic views of the city and dished on the bank’s next moves.
Robbins had just made a bid to acquire Silicon Valley Bank’s assets from regulators. He said that in the past two weeks alone, it had opened more accounts than in an average quarter. Amid the broader retreat, this was his bank’s time to shine.
“As a regional bank CEO, I couldn’t be happier,” he said in an interview with The Real Deal.
Valley Bank has emerged as a key real estate lender at a time when other banks want nothing to do with the sector. It has carved out a niche lending to midsize landlords, including under-the-radar Hasidic dealmakers like Cheskie Weisz, but has also provided loans to more institutional players like Slate Property Group.
The bank was New York City’s 12th-largest real estate lender as of last summer, according to an analysis by TRD, issuing nearly $850 million across over 350 loans between July 2021 and July 2022. That placed it just behind Blackstone and just ahead of Signature Bank and Madison Realty Capital.
The bank has ramped up since then, funding a $145 million construction loan to Torkian Group for an Upper East Side apartment complex and a $135 million loan to jump-start Cheskel Schwimmer’s highly anticipated rental project near the Brooklyn Navy Yard in Vinegar Hill. It is also in talks to provide a much bigger construction loan in Brooklyn in coming weeks, according to a source familiar with the matter.
first
Second
Picking up daughter in Newark this morning, out the door in minutes. Retired life means I should be able to sleep until 8???LOL
The life of a BMW. Things are so arrogant they try to kill each other.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtbcqXYfaoY
EXHIBIT 276
Tucker Carlson January 7, 2021 — 04:18:04 PM UTC
A couple of weeks ago, I was watching video of people fighting on the street in Washington. A group of Trump guys surrounded an Antifa kid and started pounding the living shit out of him. It was three against one, at least. Jumping a guy like that is dishonorable obviously. It’s not how white men fight. Yet suddenly I found myself rooting for the mob against the man, hoping they’d hit him harder, kill him. I really wanted them to hurt the kid. I could taste it.
May 10th is National Shrimp Day.
I suggest you celebrate DNA’s fall to under $1 at 4pm that day with side of Louisiana’s best.
Unstable Genius looking to score cheap points again. He said the word’s “white men” so cancel him..
Here is the entire txt from the NY Times. Carlson shows empathy for the Antifa victim in this text. I would say that is a human response, he is not some KKK monster like the left portray him to be. Regardless this is about money. What does FOX news owe him in his contract? Fired with cause Nothing….Expect more txt messages.
Tucker Carlson January 7, 2021 — 04:18:04 PM UTC
A couple of weeks ago, I was watching video of people fighting on the street in Washington. A group of Trump guys surrounded an Antifa kid and started pounding the living shit out of him. It was three against one, at least. Jumping a guy like that is dishonorable obviously. It’s not how white men fight. Yet suddenly I found myself rooting for the mob against the man, hoping they’d hit him harder, kill him. I really wanted them to hurt the kid. I could taste it. Then somewhere deep in my brain, an alarm went off: this isn’t good for me. I’m becoming something I don’t want to be. The Antifa creep is a human being. Much as I despise what he says and does, much as I’m sure I’d hate him personally if I knew him, I shouldn’t gloat over his suffering. I should be bothered by it. I should remember that somewhere somebody probably loves this kid, and would be crushed if he was killed. If I don’t care about those things, if I reduce people to their politics, how am I better than he is?
Most of the comments in the NY Times. (You have to be a subscriber to write one), say that this was not the txt that got him fired and if anything it is tame compared to many of his on-air comments.
They go on to say they just don’t believe this is what got him fired, and to keep looking for more as this is just not enough red meat for the cancel mob.
By the way, the sources? This was a redacted message, as well it was not evidence or part of Dominion’s lawsuit. Those people who released it (probably Fox employees) spoke on the condition of anonymity because they did not want to be identified discussing a message that is protected by a court order as doing so it’s contempt. I hope the NY Times pays well for these tips, as well it will get expensive to lawyer up when the lawsuits arrive.
Lib- I predicted pink sheets a few weeks ago. NYSE Rules. If a stock’s share price drops below $1.00 and remains below that level for 30 days, the exchange may notify the company that it is not in compliance with listing requirements and is at risk of being delisted.
That notification alone from the exchange will cause a sell off and keep it below $1.
Will that shut up Pumpkin? Nah it took him nearly a decade to shut up about pancakes in a can.
ARKK now back at the bottom of the range it’s held since Sept. Told you pumps. Buy at 35 short at 40 has worked since then. Until it breaks that 40 range, it’s the same thing play.
Lib,
Watch this video of Buffett giving advice…this is what I am doing with DNA. Can’t listen to the noise or worry about the price. I believe in the company, therefore it’s a good opportunity to buy in my opinion.
https://twitter.com/herodividend/status/1653469786909622292?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
Stock up on Potassium iodide. This is not covered by CNN or MSNBC, or FOX news.
“Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Vladimir Putin in a double drone strike on the Kremlin overnight.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12041917/Kremlin-says-Ukraine-attempted-ASSASSINATION-Putin.html
Def on point.
I just look at it as a time for bad macro….aka bear market…aka the time you should be building positions in stocks you like.
BRT says:
May 3, 2023 at 8:55 am
ARKK now back at the bottom of the range it’s held since Sept. Told you pumps. Buy at 35 short at 40 has worked since then. Until it breaks that 40 range, it’s the same thing play.
Yeah, really bad editing by VSG there, intentionally omitting the very next lines which was the point – disavowing that base instinct – of the lead-in he posted. Liberals are liars. Here, everywhere. Hard to be more selectively slanted than the NYT but he accomplished it.
VLY….exited half of my remaining half of my shorts yesterday. I had buffered my position with some options (ie, wrote to enhance returns) that I may have to manage, a little red on those. Figured let some vol drain out of the market with JPow today and just put some time between FRC and panic selling and review then. Who knows, by that time I may be a major long shareholder lol.
OK, getting there….
“That’s why they went to zirp in the first place….drowning in debt with slowing population growth…”
Few things in life are guaranteed, but I can actually guarantee you that when the Fed discussed prior increases and discusses today future rate direction population growth will not be on the table as a deciding factor….ZIRP, never before tested, was implemented for one reason…stability of the entire financial system in the wake of the GFC fiasco.
Right now, the Fed has one primary concern which is assuring that inflation is extinguished even if it means putting the economy in recession.
Bigger picture, the Fed wants to operate in an FFR bandwidth. Pick the range, say five percentage points top to bottom. They want to cut from the top of the range to stimulate; raise from the bottom to tighten.
Problem is, the actual bands matter. 0% to 5% doesn’t work, at the low end of the range – free money – investment gets distorted as we’ve seen and have been discussing. Capital is misallocated to useless one way bets. Equally, 15% as a top end doesn’t work either.
Recall how maniacal the Fed was in 2017-18 to try to get to 2.5% FFR from zero despite no inflation and just modest GDP growth? Recall the Chairs’ rationale? They wanted to create ‘room’ to be able to cut when the economy would eventually slow. We had weeks of discussion *here* of how insane it was to raise rates in a meandering economy, with the likely outcome of recession, so they could in turn cut rates when the recession they provoked occurred…[wtf smh]
Powell is fixated on stomping out inflation and establishing the ‘lower band’ of the rate ranges at a more normal level, decently above zero.
Meaning, again, if anyone’s investment thesis depends on returning to ZIRP both history and the Fed prospectively are telling you loudly it won’t happen. My investment theses specifically include not picking fights I can’t win with people bigger than I am….
“Think of it like this with volatile high growth risky stocks during their early stages: was the price real at the top bull market bubble cycle? Now apply the same mindset at the bottom of the bear market cycle: is the price real or even matter? Few understand this…”
Correction, few understand your statement is one of the biggest fallacies in the market…there is no data nor proofs that demonstrate that stocks that ‘fall’ will ‘come back’, or vice versa….the NASDAQ took 17 years to recoup its Feb 2000 high and that was an *index*….meaning that failed companies were dropped and new successful companies added (GOOG in 2004, META in 2012, etc)…run returns solely for the basket of stocks that comprised the NASDAQ in Feb 2000 instead and see that return to date, it may still be negative. Twenty three years later.
Even better, in my trading group is someone with a standard comment when the conversation veers this way…he posts a copy of his account statement from 2006 showing an investment of about $400k in Citi. Share price around $470. He still has the shares….in the 40s now, he is down over 90% for the last 14 years. In Citi. And $470 wasn’t even its top….
He holds it as a reminder and, well, at this point it doesn’t matter. But my point is the same….if you bought Citi at $470 it’s still down 90% seventeen years later. Citi. Listen closely please…there is nothing inherent in share price directional extremes that says a life sciences supply company issued at $10, that went to $13, and now resides at a buck will be anything other than a couple bucks in ten or fifteen more years…
And lastly, after arguing strongly against the idea that a busted stock’s share price will ‘come back in the next market up cycle’ keep this in mind….when the ‘cycle’ turns – as it eventually will – and the markets re-open there is a *massive* backlog of deals to be done for *new* companies. Like planes queued in two lines stacked out over the PA border waiting for a landing slot at EWR on a hot August night after East Coast thunderstorms.
What’s the point? When markets re-open no one goes dumpster diving for the broken companies of the past…will they benefit, of course, markets in total will rise. But the entire emphasis will be on what’s coming down the pipeline, not what has been. Even with no capital markets background you can appreciate this point…think like a fund manager or RIA and you are the client….when markets are moving and IPOs are flying again do you think your clients will be beating you up asking why they aren’t in the latest new stocks that issued and popped? Or are your clients going to be beating you up because they missed a 50% move in ROKU or TDOC?
And. lastly, because this post is too long already….pro tip coming out of the above. When the IPO market re-opens the first issues are the ones you want to own long term. The best companies nearly always get out first for a variety of reasons and valuations at the front end of a market cycle are usually reasonable. The companies you specifically do not want to own are the ones that come out deeper into the market run…they are the JV team, at best, and they are being priced in a market where valuations are by then full or inflated…meaning you are paying a premium for worse companies. And to come full QED that latter point describes a good portion of CW’s portfolio and is yet another data point in how an unsophisticated, inexperienced manager can wreck you without chance of recovery.
Just so everyone knows false flag or not Russia will retaliate. That Kremlin building hit by the drone is the Russian version of the White House, it is know as the Senate Building it houses the The Presidential Residence, The Offices of the President and their Security council etc. That was a hit on leadership staged or not.
If you look the videos on twitter there are grandstands in the video, that is a setup for Russia’s largest military parade next week. May Day celebrating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. All of their leadership will be in attendance.
For reference the drone was quite large, size of a Cessna. It might be a shown to be a NPP Ukrjet UJ-22 in the media in the coming days.
Panic in Russian leadership for sure, expect the worst.
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23kremlin&src=typed_query&f=top
Tucker was taken down for going off script. Remember when the left spoke “truth to power”? Of course that was the pre tds days. Note they prefer deplatforming and censorship and fake news.
AMD chip sales down 64%.
That’s how these things escalate. It’s usually not deliberate. Rogue actor, provocateur etc. is all it takes to pull in more sides. Were flirting with nuclear disaster and there is a great denial.
Were flirting with nuclear disaster and there is a great denial.
What does Sleepy Joe care? He already has one foot in the grave, the other is on a banana peel.
Iranians seized another tanker of oil.
I guess people are getting tired of “American law” and how it justifies theft.
I experienced it, so I know how they feel.
Those with money in America have drained so much out of the extremities that the fingers have turned black and are falling off. Arms are purple tinged with veins full of clots.
Guess they didn’t realize that when you kill off the extremes eventually the core dies as well. Looks like some amputations in the future.
Ruh Roh Raggy:
Ex Barclays boss Jes Staley is accused of abusing girls during a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s US Virgin Island retreat after the pedophile financier told him to ‘do what he wanted’, lawsuit claims
JPMorgan Chase Bank was alleged to have facilitated sex trafficking by Epstein
Bank has sued its former head of private banking to make liable for any penalties
Staley alleged to have abused victims while at Epstein’s island, document claims
“Private payrolls increased by 296,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Data for March was revised lower to show 142,000 jobs added instead of 145,000 as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 148,000.”
Fed should just go big with 50bps hike. The construction in non-stop. Every run down building in my town is being torn down and in some form of construction. Until structures are half-built, cranes stopped like 2009 then liquidity has not been sufficiently removed. Constructions jobs are too strong and creating to inflation pressures.
You load 16 tons, what do you get?
Another day older and deeper in debt
St. Peter, don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
I owe my soul to the company store
re: “Valley Bank”
Grim – Looking at that article I did some digging on the dealmaker mentioned. Litany of complaints on social media from their renters, seems those online complaints would scare away any would be tenant for sure, especially high end renters. Construction financing mentioned on social media includes many many banks too adding up to hundreds of millions of loans with them also buying already finished newly constructed buildings in Brooklyn neighborhoods and then listing them as rentals for huge rents too.
Here is a project they closed on in 2016. There is supposed to be a big development here, 90-unit, 12-story residential rental building. This google Pic is from a year ago and well NADA is going on. I am no expert here, but 7 years have gone by it was supposed to be completed pre-covid, so really no excuses, that loan they took was huge too.
https://tinyurl.com/2axfnucf
There are other examples too. I have a feeling if I were to spend an afternoon driving around Brooklyn and Queens looking at the lots they purchased and the construction loans associated etc there may not be a whole lot of new construction going on.
Here is another one a flip they bought in 2018. 78 million in financing. Pic from a year ago, commercial space not rented at all, plenty of units available for rent too. This is across from a Trader Joes, they bought it already built in 2018. They did not build this and it still in 2023 and really looks unrented.
https://tinyurl.com/2c47x92p
Hey I am no expert on Brooklyn rentals, but if the space it not rented, that makes it kind of tough to make the loan payments unless well I dunno perhaps some kind of games are being played. There are too many LLC mentioned on these deals and too many banks involved and other investors to follow it down the rabbit hole.
Here is another strange one, commercial space.
Picture below on Google is from July and well it looks unrented.
38 million dollar loan for four commercial units of 52,000 sq ft.
5 Year term loan in taken out 3 years ago with a 3.06% Rate
How are they making the payments if there is no rent coming in?
https://tinyurl.com/y9bcyaff
Two good local real estate sources…Commercial Observer (CRE) and New York Magazine’s Curbed (anecdata).
Read something on substantial warehousing of rentals in NYC somewhere recently, can’t remember if it was one of the above or NYT, etc. Written from prospective tenants’ POV (getting screwed) seemed to make sense from the landlord/bank POV.
If anyone wants to dig further.
Sorry for the sketchy recall and no links, busy.
Bystander: Fed should do 50bp, but they won’t, meanwhile the madness continues.
Taylor Swift is
t e d i o u s .
Lefty,
Really good post.
Now you know why most people are best off just investing in passive index funds that mimic the market. Investing can be very challenging. My nerves are def being tested with DNA…. what a test of my conviction.
I really like the IPO strategy you mentioned. Never thought about that strategy, but based on what I saw in the past…dead on.
Left – it’s called Pray and Delay, in the loan covenants the landlords cannot lower the rents ever, or they will need to bring cash to the table that is why the spaces go unrented. Landlord can take the unrented losses the payments due and tack it on to the end of the mortgage.
Louis Rossman has been covering NYC retail on his YouTube channel for years.
Here is a good one from two years ago, explaining how these commercial loans work, also his latest videos of empty retail space for insane rents are a real eye opener too.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NdfmMB1E_qk
JB TY
These regional bank CEOs just need to STFU.
Nothing to be gained highlighting sketchy local developers for VLY, as shown by the diligence here….and now PNC just comes out and ‘reiterates’ how strong and liquid it is….WTF, how many years in the executive suite?
Reassurances do not assure, they concern. If every night your spouse comes home and ‘reassures’ you s/he is not cheating do you feel good or concerned?
JFHC who is advising these people.
Mitch McConnel has that dementia stare now. He looks like a vegetable.
Ought to be a maximum age for high Federal office. 70 or so. Plus term limits.
I’ll say it again, when your parents are this old, you confiscate their keys. You don’t elect them to public office. Nancy, Mitch, Joe, Dianne….We gotta get them out.
We also need to monitor the bank accounts and rising fortunes of elected officials.
Another vote of confidence..sure you are not.
Vornado Realty Trust is looking to sell office buildings at depressed prices in an effort to raise cash and prop up its faltering stock price. “We are not a distressed seller,” Chief Executive Steven Roth insisted on a conference call Tuesday that he attended remotely. “We are not a weak seller.”
BRT says:
May 3, 2023 at 12:23 pm
I’ll say it again, when your parents are this old, you confiscate their keys. You don’t elect them to public office. Nancy, Mitch, Joe, Dianne….We gotta get them out.
Term limits on all elected federal jobs, with age limits of 70 or 75. The sooner the better, they are only interested in making themselves wealthier. Shame on them, at the expense of the taxpayers.
It’s jarring how much the entertainment landscape has changed since the last writers strike: In 2007, Netflix was still primarily a DVD-by-mail business, Amazon Studios and Apple hadn’t yet crossed over from Silicon Valley to Hollywood, and streaming as we know it didn’t exist. Now there’s more content being produced than ever, with the streamers and legacy players like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery spending well into the billions each year.
Once again, a strike is happening during a period of widespread economic uncertainty spurred by inflation, concerns of a recession, and mass layoffs in media and entertainment. But this time around, there’s a twist: the ascension of generative artificial intelligence. If half the internet can be tricked by an AI-created Drake and The Weeknd collab, could that same tech write scripts and enable studios to create more content for less money
do·tard
an old person, especially one who has become physically weak or whose mental faculties have declined
Ex,
Hard to imagine the role of human beings in the economy of tomorrow. Chit is changing fast…and honestly, it’s scary. We are the horse in 1900. The need for human labor in the economy is slowly being replaced…it really is. I can’t even imagine the world of tomorrow, but I know one thing, a lot of companies are going to die. There is massive change coming to human society…
I know that “if” employers can replace you with a machine or a bot they will.
The future belongs to the highly skilled and those with specific training.
Even with those attributes for some it will be a crap shoot. I am constantly amazed at the array of truly crap companies out there trying to survive. I’d rather run a food truck.
I know that liars invested in latest buzzword technology will always claim right on cusp of Terminator 2. ..except when you work in a rich bank’s tech group and realize they can’t even handle missing data or column change to file without whole world collapsing and having to review logs manually. AI..sure
We also need to monitor the bank accounts and rising fortunes of elected officials.
As if that is going to do anything or make any changes….
Mitch McConnel has that dementia stare now. He looks like a vegetable.
Spitting image of my ex father in law with the wonky Bells palsy face.
Where is my work VR headset, in-home 3D printer and self driving car? All supposed to be here by now. No one selling that stuff anymore… DDD, I say..DDD
+0.25
now what will happen?
Nurses deserve a big raise:
Atlanta gunman kills one and injures three others in hospital shooting – as sources claim one of the victims was his MOTHER: Cops frantically hunt ‘mobile and moving’ shooter
Chgo: Let’s see Powells commentary.
These cycles always happen, but this one specifically for SF is brutal. Like what do you do for fun if this keeps up?
“The politicians of San Francisco finally decided to normalize trade relations with the United States. But there remains an urgent need for them to ensure public safety before normal commercial relations disappear entirely from the City by the Bay.
The major retailers fleeing the city’s downtown have been so numerous that last weekend the San Francisco Chronicle felt compelled to publish a map so readers could keep track of the exodus. Roland Li and Adriana Rezal also reported new additions to the list of retail refugees:
Also closing are Nordstrom, Nordstrom Rack and a neighboring Saks Off 5th store, adding to the retail exodus seen with global brands like Uniqlo, Gap and H&M.
Annie Gaus and Kevin Truong note the significance in the San Francisco Standard:
The closure of Nordstrom at Westfield San Francisco Centre in Downtown, a major department store that anchors the city’s shopping district, has real estate insiders and locals wondering what the future holds for the beleaguered mall.”
Agreed…
ExEx says:
May 3, 2023 at 1:48 pm
I know that “if” employers can replace you with a machine or a bot they will.
The future belongs to the highly skilled and those with specific training.
Even with those attributes for some it will be a crap shoot. I am constantly amazed at the array of truly crap companies out there trying to survive. I’d rather run a food truck.
I don’t know….it’s changing fast to the point it is making my head hurt thinking about it. Really think we are upon a period of massive change. We will see.
Bystander says:
May 3, 2023 at 1:54 pm
I know that liars invested in latest buzzword technology will always claim right on cusp of Terminator 2. ..except when you work in a rich bank’s tech group and realize they can’t even handle missing data or column change to file without whole world collapsing and having to review logs manually. AI..sure
Looks like writers are afraid of AI as well, it’s part of the reason they went on strike.
The work stoppage comes amid intense economic and technological upheaval in Hollywood, which is grappling with the increasing dominance of streaming services, the decline of traditional broadcast viewership and even the rise of artificial intelligence, which has stoked anxiety about the future of creative professions.
Ex: I would agree, but add I am not so sure even the highly skilled,( however that might be defined in the future) will remain untouched.
Here is why they are striking, they have created a gig economy for the writers. Short term work smaller teams etc called a “mini room”.
https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/writers-guild-contract-negotiation-mini-room-1235568173/
Grim, you know these guys?
https://www.adirondackbarrelcooperage.com/
Also, I’ve used this group below and referred some friends here who have also used them. Not sure if that’s up your alley….
“Wow, we are just so excited about the response to our Lost Lantern Single Distillery Series so far! Both Desert Dessert and Mega Mesquite sold out on our website in under 48 hours… but there are still ways to get all three releases, depending where you are.”
https://www.lostlanternwhiskey.com/lost-lantern-single-distillery-series/
Yes, they are one of our suppliers.
Beautiful stuff.
“The [writers] work stoppage comes amid…the rise of artificial intelligence, which has stoked anxiety about the future of creative professions.”
If the output of these ‘creative’ professionals weren’t so absolutely insufferably banal AI would not be an issue…..
In fact due to the high cost of residuals most commercials and many films that you see now are either filmed in So Africa, Canada, or Australia. True story. Firms cannot afford to film in the US anymore.
The shifting landscape has alarmed creatives who have already seen their residuals dwindle over the years.
Residuals were once a cornerstone of an actor’s or writer’s livelihood, with large checks consistently rolling in as series were syndicated and appeared as reruns. Now, creatives say, their residual income has plummeted as streamers have grown. As part of union-negotiated contracts, streamers still pay residuals, but those back-end payments are hardly the size that casts and crews receive from TV channels.
Per the Writers Guild of America West’s contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, a single rerun of an hourlong prime-time broadcast show on ABC would currently net its writer $24,558. But if that show were on Netflix, the writer would earn — at most — $20,018 in domestic residuals for the episode. And if the show were on a smaller streamer like HBO Max, that annual payment would max out at $13,346. Each additional year a show is on a streamer, the residuals decrease. That, of course, assumes the show remains part of the library.
The decline of residuals is an issue that industry insiders say could come to a head as the WGA’s contract expires in May, followed shortly by the expiration of the directors’ and actors’ guild contracts, which are both due to lapse June 30. In addition to seeking better residual rates, writers want higher minimum pay rates and better financial security in an industry that is far more likely to order a 10-episode season than the 22-episode season that was standard when broadcasters dominated the medium. The last writers’ strike, a 100-day work stoppage that ended in 2008, cost the California economy an estimated $2 billion.
“In case y’all are wondering why a WGA strike may be impending, my first residual check for the broadcast show I wrote on was $12,000. I just got my first residual check for my streaming show… $4,” screenwriter Kyra Jones tweeted.
https://fortune.com/2023/04/07/hollywood-economy-struggles-residual-checks-streaming-profit-cutbacks-writers-strike/
Source:
Jeez, getting scary out there in the USA. Pretty crazy..
ExEx says:
May 3, 2023 at 2:54 pm
In fact due to the high cost of residuals most commercials and many films that you see now are either filmed in So Africa, Canada, or Australia. True story. Firms cannot afford to film in the US anymore.
My prediction is that the market will do exactly what it has done for last 4 Fed meetings.
-Cry and whine that Fed should not raise rates as we are (cough..bs) inflation neutral
– Accept that .25 needed after data proves them wrong
-Convulse for a bit. Maybe below 33K Down, under 11K on NASDAQ
-Market moves back up as the Fed MUST reduce rates four times by Q1 2024..or else. We mean it
-Rally on.
Looks as if Powell said something….. nothing dramatic, but enough to make things a bit soggy….
Gundlach up on CNBC when JPow stops. Usually entertaining.
chi, I should just close everything out before he starts talking and then put it back on in a day or two…guy always turns me Red of Fed days…not the decision, but his Q&A…I could put a diametrically opposed pairs trade on – ie, virtually guaranteed to net to zero after moves – and he would find a way to bang me lol. On both sides.
Above, as shown by GDP growth, M2 money supply as well as CPI (consumer prices) YoY change, these all were at extremely elevated levels at the beginning of this tightening cycle.
The elevated levels and extremely hot conditions we were in WAS OUR BASELINE at the beginning of this tightening cycle which historically doesn’t happen. Usually tightening cycles happen LONG BEFORE conditions get this hot. Actually, I don’t believe there has ever been a period in history the Fed let it get this bad before beginning their tightening cycle.
To control this over heated economy, the Federal Reserve needed to effectively tighten credit conditions and “choke” the economy to prevent further hyper inflation. There is no better way to see the level of this “choking” better than the 10 year and 3 month yield curve inversion.
What isn’t very well known by many market commentators is exactly why the yield curve (inverts/steepens) at different times and exactly what this means.
Recall credit growth is economic growth. In this context, the 10 year yield can be considered a more “neutral” long term rate which bond investors believe is necessary for longer term, stable, economic growth. The short end of the yield curve (2 year yield and lower) is controlled by the Federal Reserve. That means the short end of the yield curve needs to be lower than the long end (10 year) for economic growth. The opposite is also true. The short end is usually higher when credit conditions are too tight which effectively chokes the economy from credit growth, which ultimately leads to economic growth.
To simplify and explain the thesis that rate cuts will be bullish: Our economy is coming down from overheated conditions and in some ways, we are still over heated as indicated by some areas of the CPI and PCE particularly in the labor market and housing (still). This is likely a result of printing 40% of all money in circulation over a 2 year period. This rapid expansion of credit has taken years to work through the system and still is even today.
When the Fed begins to ease credit conditions (assuming the banking system holds together, which it will, SVB response proved that to us) we are going to move toward a more neutral level and eventually transition to an expansionary level. This is all in an effort to control inflation, which is still elevated. Over time, this will continue to moderate with “below trend” economic growth. Once trend is met, credit conditions will ease, which will lead toward a resumption in 2%-ish economic growth.
Stocks will continue to rally as inflation falls and credit conditions ease. Like I mentioned in another post, 2H of this year and 2024 is likely to be a very good period for stocks as we look toward the economic recovery phase of the market cycle.
We are in accumulation phase, entering into mark-up.
Re writer’s union.
Some woke hack hollywood writer is pissed that her shitty writing doesn’t make her rich. Here’s one sob story from the article:
For Riva, the developments were crushing. Over 10 episodes, the critically lauded series followed a plus-sized 12-year-old named Cucu as she and her Dominican family adapt to life in 1980s Miami.
Who knew that a show about a fat young WOC wouldn’t fly? Sounds like a show created to meet Hollywood diversity quotas, which “critics” always love morethan audiences.
The questioning towards Powel is hilarious.
“So when can we stop raising? Maybe by June?”
“Would it be ok for the Fed to accept 3% inflation for an extended time?”
So desperate for lower rates.
“sufficiently restrictive policy to return to our 2% inflation target” should’ve been today’s drinking game.
Medical care is so bad in this Country I’m surprised we haven’t seen more hospital shootings.
No one,
So much entertainment content out there from tic toc to all the streaming series out there…too bad the majority of it is horrible. Give me back the 90s with limited content, but good stories. Saturated with mostly garbage.
I have seen most series too…i hit the 10 second fwd through most shoes these days and let it play on the predictable key moments. Saves a lot of time.
F’ing truth right here…it has been a slow bleed of losing professionalism. Everything is half a$$ these days in all professions. It’s wild to witness, esp when you valued and looked up to these professionals growing up. Wtf is happening.
Do your job with some pride. Try to be good at what you do. Is that too much to ask?
ExEx says:
May 3, 2023 at 4:50 pm
Medical care is so bad in this Country I’m surprised we haven’t seen more hospital shootings.
PACW off 50% in after hours trading….
Thanks, Jay….
His pressers remind me of a Devils team from six years or so ago….their power play was so horrific that rather than take the advantage of an extra man on the ice you just wanted to look at the officials and tell them you decline the penalty, you’ll play even strength rather than with the man advantage….
Can the Fed just cancel every fucking remaining press conference from here through year end?
Every time you’re on the ice Jay something bad happens…
Markets and portfolios would be appreciative….
To quote Gomer Pyle: Surprise,Surprise,Surprise.
Congresswoman Lois Frankel sold up to $15,000 stock in First Republic in March before it tanked by 80% – then bought JP Morgan Chase stock
I miss the 90s tv entertainment mold. I enjoyed the limited content. It was a way to share an experience with most others as everyone watched the same limited content. Everyone understood jokes about a show in a social setting. It was an easy conversation starter.
Now it’s the “me” era. You don’t get to talk and joke about shows anymore. Everyone watches their unique me entertainment mold. People are losing their real life social connections and replacing them with digital ones that make “me” the center of my universe. Pretty sad.
I am just getting older…slowly losing touch.
Do your job with some pride. Try to be good at what you do. Is that too much to ask?
Maybe if hospital workers got the same healthcare benefits and pensions as teachers did they might care…..
Late night comedy shows shut without writers.
Replace the Front men with AI actors and give the money to the writers- obviously it’s their writing that makes the shows funny.
Lefty,
Lol you are the man! You really mastered it at this point in life. Stay sharp and in that zone. I don’t like to trade, but chit, wish I followed you on some of these trades.
Phoenix: She said her FA takes care of that, she was not aware etc something to that effect.
Another FED meeting. Another FED interest rate hike.
Ho hum. Bystander, you’re prediction better not be right. If we get through next quarter without the bust, I fear you could be spot on. For sure it is the precedent. Something’s got to give.
Like pulling a pitbull off a yorkie.
BRT says:
May 3, 2023 at 12:23 pm
I’ll say it again, when your parents are this old, you confiscate their keys. You don’t elect them to public office. Nancy, Mitch, Joe, Dianne….We gotta get them out.
Yea, that’s why I shared that earlier. Could this time be different and bottom is already in? I wouldn’t doubt it. This unemployment rate is not normal…
Libturd says:
May 3, 2023 at 5:51 pm
Ho hum. Bystander, you’re prediction better not be right. If we get through next quarter without the bust, I fear you could be spot on. For sure it is the precedent. Something’s got to give.
“7 mega caps make up 80% of the market. The vast majority of the market has crashed significantly. We dont need the market to crash as much as a rotation. Money just needs to move out of the “safe havens” its hiding in and move back to risk assets. A small fraction of the market is in a massive bubble while a vast part of the market is in a bear market.”
Def think you have to buy the beaten down risk assets that you like now. Going to have some big winners. Praying DNA is one of them.
“I’ve been through so many cycles over the last 30 years I’m just not fazed by massive shocks to the economy. Risk assets have been trashed. Take advantage of it”
Found Phoenix
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CrxzLzEN_Vf/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
Lost another house. 57 offers, was in the top 5. Offered 31% over asking waived appraisal and inspection. 35% down and still didn’t get it. Wah wah lol
Dave,
Should have listened to pumps years ago on this blog. Could have avoided this all.
Just remember: Your boss hates it when you invest 20% of your paycheck every month
“Maybe if hospital workers got the same healthcare benefits”
Funny thing is that I do a lot of Volunteer work. I have to process a lot of paperwork including medical histories. I came across one person who worked in the medical field and their forms said and I paraphrase, “Don’t take me to where I work as I’m not covered, Take me to XYZ instead.”
Fabs,
Yup, truth. Many of those we work with don’t take our insurance. But they will take the Cadillac Teacher/Cop insurance.
In other news, a bit old, but damn, this is funny.
In a cash-strapped Chicago suburb, as the COVID-19 pandemic raged, a public school food services director engaged in a slow-motion heist of some $1.5 million worth of chicken wings, authorities said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/chicago-area-school-official-stole-11000-cases-chicken-wings-prosecuto-rcna68798
Vera Liddell, 66, a former employee at Harvey School District 152, faces charges of financial crimes and theft exceeding $1 million.
Authorities allege that from July 2020 through February 2022, Liddell is accused of placing hundreds of unauthorized orders for food that never made it to schoolchildren, including 11,000 cases of chicken wings, according to the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office.
Pumps,
You should have taken your own advise, leveraged yourself to the hilt, and bought every piece of property you could have gotten a mortgage on.
Did you?
I don’t know if you want to hear this answer…wife.
Phoenix says:
May 3, 2023 at 11:01 pm
Pumps,
You should have taken your own advise, leveraged yourself to the hilt, and bought every piece of property you could have gotten a mortgage on.
Did you?
I did as much as i could…but lemmings. Picture hitting sirius at the bottom. The real estate market at the bottom. Now enter “wife” into the equation and watch it all evaporate.
My oh my, how much has this marriage cost me.