From Insider:
Elon Musk warns house prices are set to plunge – and says commercial real estate is in meltdown
Elon Musk is once again ringing the alarm on the US real-estate sector.
“Commercial real estate is melting down fast. Home values next,” the Tesla and SpaceX chief tweeted on Monday.
The tech billionaire made the comment in response to a tweet by the Craft Ventures founder David Sacks, who said that a big chunk of commercial real-estate debt was due to mature soon.
Musk has previously warned that cracks could appear in property markets following turmoil in the banking sector. For example, the clean-energy pioneer said commercial real estate was “by far the most serious looming issue,” and cautioned regional banks could experience a wave of defaults because of their huge exposure to the sector.
The debt-fueled industry has kept investors on edge in recent months, given that it faces a raft of headwinds. These include higher interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and work-from-home trends.
JPMorgan estimated that about $450 billion in commercial real-estate debt set to expire this year could default. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said commercial-property prices could tumble 40% from their peak in light of the sector’s troubles.
The US housing market is also dealing with similar problems, which likely explains Musk’s view that prices were set to topple. Morgan Stanley reported that home sales have bottomed as higher borrowing costs crippled demand with experts warning of a potential 15% to 20% plunge in prices.
Crash!
Hopefully he’ll be more accurate than he was with social media.
I mean, he is a deadbeat renter at this point, so perhaps there is something there.
It’s Office Commercial real estate, the rest of it warehouses, retail etc and seem to be doing OK.
Here is a reporter from Bloomberg talking about downtown LA office space. 30% vacancy and landlords walking away from buildings as well as foreclosures.
https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1662985168603299841
From NJ Business:
Is It Time to Buy, Sell or Hold?
While no one has a crystal ball, there are some indications as to where the commercial real estate marketplace may be headed in 2023 and beyond.
The sales of New Jersey’s commercial real estate office buildings have hit an all-time low. As we approach the three-year anniversary of the COVID-19 lock down, some sources believe that nearly half of office workers continue to balance working on and off site. Many have no intention of going back in-house to a five-day week, and with job opportunities being plentiful, employees are able to wield their power. Thus, employers look to reduce office space and rent, and while the future outcome is unclear, it is likely there will continue to be less demand for such space.
Warehouses and distribution centers, however, are in demand and there is a shortage of such space, as e-commerce continues to grow, even while some distributors such as Amazon and Walmart have scaled back somewhat. While this momentum has been fueled in part by the pandemic, consumers continue to want convenience, they have developed new buying habits, and this means smaller businesses have had to reassess and revise their old business models or be forced to close.
In addition to current economic issues, there is a glut of empty office buildings in New Jersey built as far back as the 1970s. “Overall sales are down, driven by higher interest rates, a wide lack of liquidity, and fewer lenders. Many buildings that have not been updated in decades were designed for a different laborforce so they are functionally obsolete,” comments Eugene Diaz, principal, Prism Capital Partners in Nutley. “Owners or buyers may consider upgrading in order to attract new tenants. However, that strategy may not be feasible due to cost, existing floor plate design, or – structurally – it may just be too difficult. The expense of renovation, adhering to environmental and sustainability regulations, and the uncertainty of return on investment, are likely to give investors pause,” Diaz says.
Zoning laws may also be an issue depending on the type of conversion that a municipality will permit, and investors may have to consider different options. In some communities, the trend to convert obsolete commercial properties into mixed-use, multi-family and retail use is growing, and has been a win-win solution for municipalities and its residents, such as Prism’s Edison Lofts in West Orange and Avenue & Green in Woodbridge.
“Municipalities are facing a great reckoning,” Diaz continues. “Office parks that were approved decades ago are now languishing, creating a detriment and an eyesore. With empty buildings, and more coming, and as corporate businesses right size – coupled with high vacancy rates and less rent money coming in – owners will look to appeal taxes and the tax burden will begin to shift on taxpayers. Thus, rezoning for alternate uses will be necessary in order to attract either current or new investors and to stimulate valorem tax growth.”
On the flip side, while the Garden State’s red-hot industrial market may be cooling down somewhat from 2022, demand continues to be strong, commanding low vacancy rates and high rents. Since COVID-19, the surge in online shopping has necessitated the growth of warehouse facilities for e-commerce leaders, regardless of the uptick in foot traffic to malls and in-person shopping.
“New Jersey is unique in its demand for warehouse facilities, due to its close proximity to the ports of Newark, Elizabeth and Bayonne,” comments Scott Perkins, SIOR, NAI James E. Hanson in Teterboro. “The accessibility to the transportation network of the New Jersey Turnpike, leading to interstate connections from north to south, have made it both attractive – and necessary for trucking deliveries.”
According to Perkins, industrial properties are also flourishing due to the close proximity to New York City, a place where commerce is dependent on deliveries from warehouses in New Jersey and beyond. There are limited industrial facilities both in Manhattan and the boroughs in which to store and distribute supplies, and it is critical that restaurants, grocery stores, hotels and retailers are able to receive deliveries regularly and on time, in order for business to flow.
The Fed’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report released a week ago cited CRE as a major Near-Term Risks to the Financial System in the next 18 months.
Small banks hold 67% of CRE loans (45% of their overall loan book).
Large banks hold 33% of CRE loans (12% of their overall loan book).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-may-financial-stability-report-near-term-risks.htm
“Office parks that were approved decades ago are now languishing, creating a detriment and an eyesore.
Not an issue; put some walls up, install cheap stoves, fridges and a toilet and presto, you have luxury apartments going for 3K per month for a 1bd/1bth unit. Get on the list, we may get back to you in a few years. Otherwise, scroll through some possible rentals in the Poconos or the Toms River area.
As for residential housing in the NY/NJ hub, anything with four walls and a roof will be sold in a matter of hours at or above asking. Nuclear fallout may create a pause; otherwise, we’re a housing steamroller in this neck of the woods.
It is being done at a cost of $400 to $500-per-square-foot rate per unit.
https://gothamist.com/news/the-countrys-biggest-office-to-apartment-conversion-is-underway-inside-the-old-daily-news-office
Juice,
It’s going to happen everywhere… office buildings converted to pods with way more revenue generated as residential rentals. An opportunity knocks! Can’t afford it? Move to Detroit.
And despite what anyone says, the Daily News building above looks like Hudson County jail. You can tell everyone you live in D-Block. But you need to get full neck tattoos first or they won’t approve you. We are all just prisoners here, of our own device!
Any questions? ;)
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/al-pacino-expecting-baby-no-025719488.html
Yes, I have been saying it has been in control of shorts for almost 2 years now. It’s finally changing. Shorts have been getting killed now. Understand that stocks are manipulated like crazy in the short-term. Charts, volume, and all the other bs drive these short-term traders. That’s why day trading is hard and buying/holding eliminates this noise in the long-run.
Telling you, they created stupid value for people willing to buy and hold long. Should have been buying it.
Bystander says:
May 30, 2023 at 10:40 pm
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (NYSE:DNA) has seen a significant surge in short interest during the month of May, according to reports. It was noted that as of May 15th, the total number of shares deemed as short interest reached a figure of 202,240,000 shares – marking a rise of 7.5% from April’s total of 188,130,000 shares. This activity suggests that a bearish attitude by investors is forming towards Ginkgo Bioworks. The real question is what could have led to this market sentiment and how it will impact the company’s progress.
The sale of the stock by Reshma P. Shetty has also caught the attention of analysts and investors alike trying to interpret the implications for Ginkgo Bioworks’ future financial prospects. Shetty sold 37,650 shares at $1.56 per share on May 24th; therefore receiving a transaction worth $58,734. Following this transaction Shetty still held 13,504,054 shares in the firm which are valued at approximately $21,066,324.
Yes, that’s including a purchase at 14. DCA is a beautiful thing. Esp when the stock gets slammed and you get to buy it up on the cheap.
BRT says:
May 30, 2023 at 10:51 pm
Well, my fear is coming to fruit. DNA bottomed and will likely never see those lows again. DNA looks like it is ready to blow up. Just saying. Glad I bought a ton in the 1.20s to bring my avg down to $1.90.
All those conviction buys when the sky was black and it was pouring…almost doubled my money in 2 months.
Is this counting the purchases above $10?
Go ahead….keep thinking you can not go to the office and it have no impact on your wallet. Savings from not commuting…. Nothing is free…everything has a cost. This will destroy our economy if they all abandon their properties which are all on loan….They will pass on the cost to you and I. Why would you think otherwise…
I pray they start to lower rates, and that people stop being ridiculous (because they can in a hot goldilocks labor market). Your boss wants you in the office because he knows the cost to the economy if he doesn’t get you there. The economy was built around this, you can’t just flip a switch and think it will be all gravy. WFH and this goldilocks labor market has become a major cancer to our economy.
“Commercial real estate is melting down fast. Home values next,” the Tesla and SpaceX chief tweeted on Monday.
The tech billionaire made the comment in response to a tweet by the Craft Ventures founder David Sacks, who said that a big chunk of commercial real-estate debt was due to mature soon.
Musk has previously warned that cracks could appear in property markets following turmoil in the banking sector. For example, the clean-energy pioneer said commercial real estate was “by far the most serious looming issue,” and cautioned regional banks could experience a wave of defaults because of their huge exposure to the sector.
Your boss wants you in the office because he knows the cost to the economy if he doesn’t get you there.
You should walk around all day wearing a helmet.
Any theories as to why rush hour traffic is as bad as ever, given that employees are clearly not working in the office in numbers that come close to pre-covid levels (as evidenced by the number of empty office buildings)? On my way into NYC at 7:00am traffic is always backed-up from the Lincoln Tunnel to turnpike 16E, and on the way home there’s always b-to-b traffic at 495, 16E, Rt78/Newark Airport, Rt287/Rt206, and often slowdowns at Rt78 merge in Summit. Same exact experience as pre-covid when office buildings were full — or is it possible office buildings were already emptying pre-covid and that’s why traffic patterns are largely the same?
Had to take 78 this am due to another turned over dump truck on 80. Turnpike was the worst I have seen it in a while. Think one rolled over on 287 too
Lincoln Tunnel Traffic levels of cars are back to pre-pandemic for a while now.
1,404,622 cars monthly in March 2023
1,481,852 cars monthly in March 2022
1,212,214 cars monthly in March 2021
813,745 cars monthly in March 2020
1,317,523 cars monthly in March 2019
MTA is coming back slowly. Subway ridership is around 65% of pre-pandemic levels. Other trains LIRR, Metro-North etc are somewhere around 70%.
Not seeing this in lot. My Metro North parking is still 60% capacity. I can still drive up to front at 9am and find a few open spots. Lot is completely bare further away from entrance Before pandemic, I had to park in few spots left furthest away by 8am. There was 6 no wait. Express GCT train crowded at 7:20 and after 9 when it becomes off peak. 4:30 to 5:30 return trains are crowded but otherwise fairly easy to get seat at other times
MTA has been putting out press releases, some days ridership hits pre-pandemic levels, I gather those Hybrid days when people do go into the office.
“Metro-North Railroad carried approximately 207,484 riders on Tuesday, marking the fourth time in the last six weekdays the railroad has surpassed 200,000 riders in a single day. Prior to hitting the 200,000-rider mark on May 9, the last time Metro-North carried at least 200,000 riders in a single day was March 6, 2020. ”
https://new.mta.info/press-release/mta-commuter-railroads-set-post-pandemic-ridership-records-same-day-second
Companies are slowly getting their workers back in. First step was to get them back into the office with hybrid….next step will be to force them 4 days a week.
Juice Box says:
May 31, 2023 at 10:30 am
MTA has been putting out press releases, some days ridership hits pre-pandemic levels, I gather those Hybrid days when people do go into the office.
“Metro-North Railroad carried approximately 207,484 riders on Tuesday, marking the fourth time in the last six weekdays the railroad has surpassed 200,000 riders in a single day. Prior to hitting the 200,000-rider mark on May 9, the last time Metro-North carried at least 200,000 riders in a single day was March 6, 2020. ”
https://new.mta.info/press-release/mta-commuter-railroads-set-post-pandemic-ridership-records-same-day-second
Truth hurts, doesn’t it? Fat f/ks like you don’t get to sit around at home all day in your dirty underwear getting paid top dollar…cry me a river.
PumpkinFace says:
May 31, 2023 at 9:37 am
Your boss wants you in the office because he knows the cost to the economy if he doesn’t get you there.
You should walk around all day wearing a helmet.
Bystander: 15 to 20 cars a day in my lot, depending on the day of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be the most. Mondays and Fridays, pretty much empty. It’s never going back to 4 or 5 days in the office for many large companies from what I can see, and from what friends and family tell me.
Even many who live in the city don’t want to do 5 days in the office.
9:42 . . .
My theory on traffic despite less commuting to the office is that a lot of employees changed jobs in the last 24 months. When they were job hunting, they were willing to tolerate much longer commutes than pre-pandemic, reasoning that it was just for 3 days a week. So, there’s more cars traveling all around the whole road system.
The other item, as noted by the MTA stats posted above (at 70% of pre-pandemic) is that some people are opting to drive. Again, if it’s a long commute and only 3 days a week, there are many commutes where driving is best. If a person had to do it five days, they might use public transit.
Our economy is not built on people commuting to an office.
Our economy is built on people engaging in trade freely, and much of the economy reflecting however people choose.
The lunch takeout spots in midtown see business down from pre-pandemic. The lunch takeout spots in suburban downtowns see business up from more days of people working from home. Even if the large office landlrods might need to have a workout on their debt, or declare bankruptcy, then American ethos is such taht the workers take their commuting savings and immeidately spend it anyway.
Crushed: I know some of the local pub/ restaurants in my area have definitely increased their week day evening business. People who would meet after work in the city, now appear to be meeting locally.
Vox article.
How some people get away with doing nothing at work
All hail the jobless employed.
In theory, Nate works 40 hours a week in the operations department at a major fintech company. In reality, Nate works one hour a day at most. He moseys over to his computer whenever he gets an alert on his phone that he’s got a task to complete. Otherwise, he spends most of the day doing, basically, whatever he feels — he sleeps in, he watches TV, he does household chores. His only real restriction is that he can’t stray too far from home in the event he is needed for something.
“I don’t have a problem with being asked to do work; it’s just I’m not really being asked,” he says. Maybe he could take more initiative and try to take on more, but he gets good performance reviews and raises as it is, so he figures, why bother? Plus, it’s not like he can waltz up to his boss to announce there’s no real business reason for his existence. “How do I initiate that conversation that’s, ‘Hey, I haven’t been doing much of anything this whole time, I need more to do’? You don’t really want to draw attention to it,” says Nate, which is a pseudonym. Vox granted him anonymity to speak for this story for obvious reasons, as we did all of the workers interviewed.
Strongly suspecting that a certain person isn’t doing much, or not nearly enough to fill up what is ostensibly an eight-hour day, seems to be a near-universal work experience. Many people have also, at some point in time, been that less-than-occupied worker. Sometimes, it’s intentional. Other times, like in Nate’s case, that’s just how the corporate cards have been dealt.
These jobless employed are a persistent presence in the working world, their existence a bug that’s become a feature. There’s a percentage of every job that’s bullshit, and in their case, that’s 90 percent, minimum.
https://apple.news/AZYa0QLmUQ-CWD_jTgs4xow
Nate doesn’t think his boss or anyone is really aware of the problem — his company laid off hundreds of workers earlier this year, and he made it through. He shows up at office social events once a month to put in face-time and is generally well-liked. He’s read stories about companies tracking remote workers to make sure they’re actually working but feels pretty confident his company isn’t. “If we did,” he says, “I don’t think I’d be employed.”
So for now, like many people, his jobless employment status continues. And he’s not alone.
Hanging out, 9 to 5
Reporting for this story, I spoke with multiple people who are essentially funemployed, or at least one meaning of it, who sit around at work all day with very little to do. What was most surprising was that many did not exactly love the situation and felt somewhat conflicted.
Take Charlie, a data scientist at a financial company. For his first few years at the firm, he was pretty busy, but after his last promotion about five years ago, his workload has dwindled. He’s not super motivated to change the situation, though he worries this will ultimately be detrimental to his career. “I feel like I’m falling behind,” he says. “I definitely want to move to a different company, and I’m hopeful that when I do that, my work and my mindset will change.”
The Thursday and Friday prior, he worked from home and “literally did not do a second of work.” The following week, on a day he was working from the office, he read two chapters of his novel and took a small nap. The day we spoke, he took the call — which was about how he wasn’t working — from his office. “Whenever I work from home, it’s easier to go work from my couch or lay down or do whatever, go on my PC a little bit. Even in my office here, and actually today there are a bunch of people for some reason, but it’s normally pretty empty. It’s not like I have the peer pressure of people working around me,” he says.
Charlie’s company cut workers this year, but he wasn’t really worried about it one way or the other. “I almost wish that I could get laid off and have a generous severance package,” he says. “That wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.”
One engineer told me he’s enjoying the freedom of having an incredibly light workload, but he knows it won’t go on forever. He also has to be intentional about keeping up his skill set so he doesn’t get too rusty. “I forget how to do stuff that I knew how to do,” he says. One government affairs representative says she completes the work for her eight-hour shift in two to three hours each day, which, again, is nice, but is also unsettling. “I get paid,” she says, “but I feel useless and like I could be doing more.”
Green believes it’s not uncommon for people in these jobless employment situations to have complicated feelings about it. They feel guilty, or they get bored, or they’re paranoid they’ll get caught. “They worry that at some point someone’s going to notice,” she says.
To be sure, not everyone feels bad. Tom, who works in sales, appears to be a bit of an expert in getting paid for work he’s not doing. His boss at his last job forgot to inform HR that he’d quit, so he collected a paycheck from the company for a while before anyone figured it out. Now, at his new job, the company doesn’t even know where he’s based — he’s in the United Kingdom, they think he’s in Kentucky — and there’s minimal oversight. “I’m able to slip through the cracks most of the time,” he says. If someone asks what he did over the weekend, he’ll say he went to the Kentucky Derby or something, because he doesn’t want anyone getting suspicious.
He works commission and, suffice it to say, rarely meets or exceeds sales targets. So when he’s looking for jobs, he adjusts accordingly. “I search for jobs with the highest and most generous base salary for obvious reasons,” he says. He’s not losing sleep over his ruse — he says his mental health is great. “I’ve tried at work before, and it just wasn’t worth it.”
From the outside, it can be a little hard to square how to feel about this. On the one hand, if someone’s getting a paycheck and doing very little, it’s sort of a good-for-them scenario. On the other hand, it can engender resentment, especially among their colleagues who aren’t so oblivious to what’s going on.
“These people are often kind of gadflies, they’re hanging around the coffee machine, they’re stopping by people’s desks, and they become the subject of urban legends a little bit,” says Joseph Fuller, a professor of management practice at Harvard Business School. “It’s a phenomenon that’s been widely witnessed, let’s put it that way.”
Pretty much everybody has at least one person at work where they look at them and think, “Seriously, what in the world does that guy even do? And how does no one notice???” It can be even more baffling when those people keep advancing, which they often do. Promoting the incompetent has been a thing for a long time.
Now you know why people fight for remote work. Save me the bs. What I have said all along.
I am so much more productive at home as opposed to the office. ROTFLMAO. Right, and I was born yesterday.
These people think they are in sales?
What’s the first thing a salesperson does when they wake up?
Has lunch.
This will pay for Phoenixs k pop tickets
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12144133/Watch-motorist-hits-ramp-speed-flies-120ft-crashes-car-front.html#article-12144133
3b,
Starting to see the Fed playbook more clearly and it is concerning as GenX with over 15 years left for retirement. March bailout showed one thing – the Fed will expand balance sheet and cover any failures. I am 100% certain that any commercial RE defaults will be backed by them as well. In essence, it nullifies the punishment of the rate hike so the rate hike only accomplishes destroying the labor market and rewarding retired boomers who move to their money to fixed income. The market will remain sideways as try to figure out if a Fed will allow a recession. The recession will be to kill inflation via higher unemployment and thereby forcing labor control back to business who will demand 5 day in office and lower salaries. It is sickening but it is becoming obvious who the Fed will punish – you, me and the working stiffs.
30% vacancy rates in major cities. There’s blood in the streets in the commercial real estate sector. The values of these vacant towers is crashing in real time.
The gubmint takes your tax dollars and then charges you for basic services.
Any questions??
“…milk toast” my new favorite Trumpism.
Tell me you’ve got an Ivy League education ….
F’in Eyeroll
50 pointer 3b? Oz Powell has to do it. His BS slight dribble of hikes is off the rails.
Job vacancies jumped to 10.1 million in April, the highest in three months, confounding economists’ expectations of a modest decline.
LMAO
Hughesrep says:
May 31, 2023 at 12:08 pm
These people think they are in sales?
What’s the first thing a salesperson does when they wake up?
Has lunch.
Bad situation….they have to break the labor market aka trash the economy. I don’t know what they are going to do if this labor market remains in goldilocks land.
Bystander says:
May 31, 2023 at 12:23 pm
50 pointer 3b? Oz Powell has to do it. His BS slight dribble of hikes is off the rails.
Job vacancies jumped to 10.1 million in April, the highest in three months, confounding economists’ expectations of a modest decline.
Voter fraud is real:
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRoBptu1/?t=1
CNN
—
The Texas House’s impeachment of state Attorney General Ken Paxton on Saturday was the latest in a string of legal woes that began shortly after the Republican was first elected in 2014.
Paxton is a conservative firebrand who has aligned himself with former President Donald Trump. From his perch as Texas’ top prosecutor, he has led legal battles against former President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program and more. He challenged the 2020 election’s results in federal court, and in recent months has targeted Texas hospitals for providing transition-related care for transgender minors.
Paxton, a former member of the Texas House and Senate, has denied any wrongdoing, and described his myriad of legal battles as politically motivated.
Link: https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/30/politics/ken-paxton-what-to-know-texas/index.html
Remind Nate’s middle manager boss that the fate of the world economy is at stake… because in your words, they all know and care so much.
The Great Pumpkin says:
May 31, 2023 at 11:48 am
Bystander: Fed won’t be pausing in June, that’s for sure. Whether they do 25 or 50, who knows. He should have continued with the 50bp increases. At the end of the day, the Fed kept rates too low for too long. Reckless monetary policy that ultimately ignited inflation (along with other factors), and led to massive asset price inflation. It will be the younger generations that pay for it as you noted.
Bystander: They can force everyone into the office, lay them off, and then continue to decrease office space as well
It’s just as reckless to raise it this fast and hard when it is having “zero impact” on a tight labor market where there are more people retiring then coming in to replace them. So, just crash the economy? What are we saying here?
Assets are going to always go up. The only way they don’t is if the economy is decreasing in size relative to population.
3b says:
May 31, 2023 at 1:43 pm
Bystander: Fed won’t be pausing in June, that’s for sure. Whether they do 25 or 50, who knows. He should have continued with the 50bp increases. At the end of the day, the Fed kept rates too low for too long. Reckless monetary policy that ultimately ignited inflation (along with other factors), and led to massive asset price inflation. It will be the younger generations that pay for it as you noted.
Do you expect stocks and housing to be priced like it’s 1999? Who in their right mind would buy housing or stocks if they lost value like that. The whole entire economy and investment scene is based on stability. They need to know that the prices for the most part always go up, or you change everything. You destroy stability and then you destroy the ability for the economy to grow. Without some type of stability and expectations, the economy will not function or grow.
A passive stock portfolio investment under the current administration has returned zero growth. If you have an active portfolio, you’re in negative territory.
Then let it all crash…just don’t cry when someone is at your door with a shotgun to your head telling you to give it up.
PumpkinFace says:
May 31, 2023 at 1:37 pm
Remind Nate’s middle manager boss that the fate of the world economy is at stake… because in your words, they all know and care so much.
HMB
If it were not for HIPAA so many stories. Not my area but this is how you destroy a new Subaru in 9 seconds.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/13v0ad8/drunk_chicks_talk_shit_beforefucking_up_their_car/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
1:58 maybe we need more corporate tax cuts so the big firms can buy back their own stocks and drive prices up again.
Bystander,
Your posts are on target.
Sadly.
Just got back from Biloxi and New Orleans late last night. ABC parking was great again btw.
Biloxi is doing really well and is definitely turning into a hipster enclave. New Orleans is mostly a crime infested city with some amazing restaurants. Where there used to be a lot of street performers are now lots of homeless. Absolutely beautiful airport at least. Took a pleasant riverboat jazz cruise and had breakfast at Brennan’s, which was absolutely amazing. Oysters and poboys at Acme’s among other nice meals. Did a ton of super humid, sweaty balled walking. The humidity down there was oppressive after about 2pm.
“Fed won’t be pausing in June, that’s for sure. Whether they do 25 or 50, who knows.”
Your smoking Ex’s finest if you think 50 is ever going to happen in June.
BRT, don’t try…remember, his greatest move was buying ARK at the top and riding it down 20%. Now, he’s still down 15% on DNA but somehow doubled his money. Every loss with him is somehow profitable. Red/green colorblindness is my bet. Heaven help us all if he one day makes actual real profits on his trades, he’ll be insufferable.
leftwing, BRT,
From a lot of your comments here, you seem like active traders and investors. Fast Eddie says your down. Is that true? Is he calling you a liar?
maybe we need more corporate tax cuts so the big firms can buy back their own stocks and drive prices up again.
Good idea! Either that or can somebody spit to give a bird a drink?
joyce,
Let me explain because I know reading is difficult sometimes. ;)
Active portfolio… as in, an active manager managing your portfolio. The fees are guaranteed, the returns are not, nor do they care. If you’re “passively” maintaining your own portfolio, you’re at zero growth and MAYBE in the plus column.
Phoenix
I think in breaking bad Walter white did that to a sports car then set it on fire.
Left; That’s why I said, who knows, but I think we can agree, certainly no pivot.
Reading is difficult sometimes, as is writing.
Reading is difficult sometimes, as is writing.
Thank you for your ‘comment’, it’s duly noted. ;)
I am due my friend with the hot sauce picks….get ready when DNA blows up. lol
Remember, I am a long-term investor. Why I started with real estate as the basis of my portfolio.
“BRT, don’t try…remember, his greatest move was buying ARK at the top and riding it down 20%. Now, he’s still down 15% on DNA but somehow doubled his money. Every loss with him is somehow profitable. Red/green colorblindness is my bet. Heaven help us all if he one day makes actual real profits on his trades, he’ll be insufferable”
3B,
Two fed liars, err officials said this…unreal. Market was down over 250 and now coming back
“we really should skip, not pause”
Oh they are not pausing rate hikes, they are just skipping them. What a bunch of morons. They need to see more data, yet it is available now. Inflation went up and job openings went up. Your hike a month ago has done nothing.
Did Eddie and joyce once go on a date that went very badly, but I never heard about it? Their bickering seems a little personal.
TBH, I completely burned myself out over the past 2 years trading. I typically don’t try that much but I recognized that passive investing wasn’t an option the past few years, so I went active. I haven’t been very active this year and I’m essentially flat. S&P is in a chop range. And, most of those gains were in the leaders exclusively. With rates at 5%, I’ve been content to not engage in markets.
Inflation went up and job openings went up.
Don’t forget house prices. The untethered skiff has drifted 40 miles from it’s quay and has a clear ocean ahead of it.
Did you and Bystander go out on a date once? Or maybe you figured out that Bystander was, rightly or wrongly, using a the word ‘greed’ yesterday as a shorthand. Similar to people blaming ‘wall street’. Sure, it can seen as a bit lazy but it’s also lazy to not remember the context given the comments people have made over time.
Lefty,
Even though I abandoned my ARK strategy and went into a more concentrated position with DNA (i have very high conviction with this model they are creating), this was my plan with Ark.
I understood we were close to the top of the cycle. Stock market was on fire, how much more could it go up? So, I understood that if I dollar cost avg into it (could have timed, but it’s too difficult to do) when it peaked and was falling, that I would eventually build a cheap position that will make money when the next bull cycle returns.
This is what I have done instead with DNA. A stock that was once over 15 dollars….I now have a 1.90 avg on it.
Long-term buying requires you to buy in bear markets…and sell in bull cycles. You have to buy in bad conditions that make you look like a fool as you are losing money instead of making it. Then patiently wait to cash in. Long-term investing is as simple as that, imho. This what I have learned….buy when it looks bad and sell when it looks good. Easier said than done obviously, most people don’t have the mindset to execute. (They simply can only buy in the bull and can only sell in the bear…that’s why they always lose)
If you don’t think I am going to make money on DNA, then you are saying DNA is dead. I don’t see it dying based on cash on hand and the fact that companies continue to make partnerships with Gingko. The final tell for me was companies “expanding” their partnership this year with Gingko on the back of the initial success. Do you expand a partnership with a company that is going to die? Do you expand a partnership with a company that doesn’t help your company? I know what I own. Could it fail, sure, but the upside path is there.
“With rates at 5%, I’ve been content to not engage in markets.”
My cash is all making 5% or slightly more.
My 401K and IRAs are at +7% year to date.
My gambling bankroll is up around 20 K on the year. I was lucky enough to hit four 5-digit jackpots so far this year.
95% of the return of the S&P500 had been due to 5 stocks. Be careful what everyone is considering a recovery. From my perch. Due to the flat market, the former gamblers that drove up the Crypto, SPACS and NFTs are now all loading what they have left into AI related names regardless of valuation. Just like Pumps.
I take the opposite approach. I look at those 5 stocks as the safety island. They will take the bat to the head in the next correction…not the other stocks. Other stocks have been beat to chit already and should be accumulated now. If they don’t die in this bear market, they will survive to grow much bigger.
“95% of the return of the S&P500 had been due to 5 stocks. Be careful what everyone is considering a recovery. “
LOL, joyce hooking the bait without any attempt at subtlety…
I’m up strongly…back to top end of ATH band where previously I had blown through but still good. The day I can’t beat SPX with an appreciable margin after tax I’m just slamming it in the SPY…not worth my time otherwise…and as I age up that margin of beat gets wider…
I’m pretty transparent here, don’t post nearly everything so as to not turn it into a stock blog but I’ve shown enough…for me biggest ‘success factor’ if that’s the term is identifying the market regime early and correctly….stretched, bottomed, bull, toppy, bear, chop if you want to go back to late 2018, successively through covid to present…once I have that view established I use options/premium to both leverage returns and minimize/define losses….
I’ve shared this mantra here since well before covid…directional, leveraged, asymmetric, defined risk trades…does wonders….without those attributes, ie. just trying to beat the market by picking straight up longs better? Not a chance. Lib would never sit down in front of slots without his playbook.
I did take a recent hit on PNC that alone cost me 1.5% or so of portfolio, that’s unusual. Oversized when it moved against me, didn’t leave myself room to maneuver if she really tanked, exited to preserve capital. Rookie mistake, still make those at my age. But unusual. Overall I rarely have even 2% days, so when the market is up the unusual 3% I’ll be up maybe 0.5%. But…most days in the year I’m up 0.25% to 0.50%, with the occasional blip like above. I like the steadiness. The guard rails.
Recent long example I don’t think I posted went into BAC when it hit around 27…bought shares, wrote some 29 calls against the shares, then wrote 4x the number of puts 15% below the share price. Bottom line, my cost basis is about 24.60 with spot at 27 and more exposure around 23. If the shares move to 29 everything unwinds and I make about 20% in a couple months. If the shares tank to 23 or below I’ll take delivery of 2x of the 4x puts written (giving me a new cost basis of 23.47 on 3x my original share holdings) and then reset the trade. I’ll roll the extra 2x puts down to, say 19 or 20, add another 3x or so at that level, write some calls on the now 3x share holding and wash, rinse, and repeat. I’ll do that all day long as it increases my exposure as the shares decline and I’m getting paid to do so. My ‘worst’ case scenario is the stock rips quickly through my covered calls and I make 20%.
Basically, I am supercharging DCAing and unlike regular DCA getting paid to do so while I take the basis down faster OR get paid if the stock just sits flat. It’s exactly how META was so good as the shares went from around 170 to 100 for me.
BAC wants to head to 18? Good by me. At that time I’ll have a boatload of shares not far off that basis. She’s not going to zero. Same thing on META. For every 15 point drop in share price I expand my holdings with basis not far off spot. Zuck meanwhile was losing tens of billions personally. I was pretty certain who would fold first there.
Like many option strategies you can only do it personally, there is not enough liquidity or depth in the option markets for institutions to effect. One of the few times where efficient market theory works in your favor lol.
Sorry, know you were looking for quick snark back :) but I haven’t been posting in a while. Decided to use some bytes instead.
When in doubt, double down:
Bud Light Announces New Initiative With LGBTQ+ Business Owners Despite Boycott, Loss of Sales.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/d692009f-837d-3135-8a72-7471b1343258/bud-light-announces-new.html
I have been buying DNA up cheap….they are not like me. I am not chasing anything on FOMO. DNA is a cheap AI play. Mark my words. Their entire model is based on AI.
“former gamblers that drove up the Crypto, SPACS and NFTs are now all loading what they have left into AI related names regardless of valuation. Just like Pumps.”
In other news Rosie O Grady s on 57th street to close. Had some memorable nights there over the years. It was there for over 40 years..
If you drink Bud Lite you like Water more than you like “Beer”.
It’s terrible. Once it ceased to become an American company I figure, who cares.
InBev can lose billions. Zero F’s given. Too many great local breweries to waste time on crap like Bud Lite.
Bystander: I just saw the skip comments. Skip pause is there really any difference? In yet other news Christie expected to announce Presidential run next week.
We did go out on a date Joyce. I let him pay due to the “greed’ of the restaurant. I had to pay the tax though, as No One refused on moral grounds.
3b,
Too bad on Rosie O’Gradys. Spent many post St Pat day parade at that place.
“If you don’t think I am going to make money on DNA, then you are saying DNA is dead.”
Incorrect. Those are just the two extremes. The middle ground is that it is dead money.
You were talking crazy shit like 100x, 200x. THAT will never happen with this company.
I’ve beaten to death there are four or five fundamental issues with this company that will inhibit any real move until resolved. These partnerships, especially the last one the Twidiot posted as *game changing*? It was with a company with about an $80m R&D spend. Even if DNA got 5% of that spend – a massive commitment on the customer’s part – that is only $4m….meaning DNA would need *one hundred* more of these to even meet the projections they threw out. There literally are not that many customers with that kind of spend….smh….And you realize these partnerships are nothing special, they are literally the ‘product’ that is ‘manufactured’ in these situations? Meaning every company has dozens and is always getting new ones, and don’t announce every one (unless they are trying to pump their stock….).
Could you see something like $3, sometime? Sure, but why hang around with your dick in your hand waiting for it? If you want spec there are better opportunities without the fundamental issues (ie, having a lower risk profile) that have similar prospects of getting you a 60% return over time…..
On the off chance Punkin is telling the truth, he’s down on DNA. Someone keep a record that he claims to have an average price of $1.90. It’s down to $1.58 today. I have significant doubts that Punkin knows how to calculate an average position price. Maybe Robinhood calculates it for him? I also doubt that he understands that buying more of a stock at a lower price doesn’t mean that he wasn’t a dummy to buy a stock at say $5 that then subsequently fell to $1.58. He probably hopes it convinces his wife that he’s got some sophisticated investment plan instead of just being a dummy gambling on a money-losing penny stock again like those darn pancakes in a can.
BREAKING OOOOPS
Federal prosecutors have obtained an audio recording of a summer 2021 meeting in which former President Donald Trump acknowledges he held onto a classified Pentagon document about a potential attack on Iran, multiple sources told CNN, undercutting his argument that he declassified everything.
The recording indicates Trump understood he retained classified material after leaving the White House, according to multiple sources familiar with the investigation. On the recording, Trump’s comments suggest he would like to share the information but he’s aware of limitations on his ability post-presidency to declassify records, two of the sources said.
20221115 trump web card image updated november 15
Notable legal clouds that continue to hang over Donald Trump in 2023
CNN has not listened to the recording, but multiple sources described it. One source said the relevant portion on the Iran document is about two minutes long, and another source said the discussion is a small part of a much longer meeting.
Special counsel Jack Smith, who is leading the Justice Department investigation into Trump, has focused on the meeting as part of the criminal investigation into Trump’s handling of national security secrets. Sources describe the recording as an “important” piece of evidence in a possible case against Trump, who has repeatedly asserted he could retain presidential records and “automatically” declassify documents.
Prosecutors have asked witnesses about the recording and the document before a federal grand jury. The episode has generated enough interest for investigators to have questioned Gen. Mark Milley, one of the highest-ranking Trump-era national security officials, about the incident.
The July 2021 meeting was held at Trump’s golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, with two people working on the autobiography of Trump’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows as well as aides employed by the former president, including communications specialist Margo Martin. The attendees, sources said, did not have security clearances that would allow them access to classified information. Meadows didn’t attend the meeting, sources said.
Meadows’ autobiography includes an account of what appears to be the same meeting, during which Trump “recalls a four-page report typed up by (Trump’s former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) Mark Milley himself. It contained the general’s own plan to attack Iran, deploying massive numbers of troops, something he urged President Trump to do more than once during his presidency.”
“It’s down to $1.58 today.”
It’s *up* to a whopping $1.58, from on a tear from 1.12 early this month…..:)
The tear from 1.12 to 1.70 was caused by two small stock purchases by insiders who have been selling the stock hand over foot since the stock went public. It was clearly a symbolic purchase. I’ve followed about ten or so stocks over the years that had similar promise but all eventually ended up bankrupt. General Magic comes to mind as an excellent example of a company with technology that was going t0 revolutionize the world. Had all the best scientists, programmers, etc. Eventually stock got down to DNA levels. Same bullshit tactics employed. The reverse split is coming. It always does. Right before the delisting notice. Stock never gets delisted. it just goes bankrupt. Meanwhile, all of the execs move on to their next prey with tens of millions in the bank for producing absolutely nothing. Those tens of millions especially in the final years, will come almost entirely from the likes of Pumps and other gamblers who can not accept a return that is double real estate. Greed kills. Remember Gizmondo, Chesapeake Energy and even Palm.
Bystander: Yeah, too bad on Rosie s it was a nice spot.
3b,
Can we all just vote the Fat man and end this 7 year saga? The SJWs will love his body acceptance and right gets former Trumptard.
The Fat Man is and always has been utterly repulsive.
Do these NJ politicians not understand the perception of the State nationally and their own freakishness and culpability within?
Bystander/ Left: Christie does not stand a chance, I don’t understand why he is even making the effort. Pence apparently announcing next week too. Getting crowded on the Republican side.
Commercial real estate in the cities will need to be crushed before we see material return to office.
Rents need to plummet, we need the house cleaned. There needs to be a more compelling reason to return, and that’s lower rents, more space, better space. Not only that, but residential rents as well.
There is far more wishful thinking and lip flapping going on about RTO than is actually happening.
RTO will happen when it’s cost effective to live in the cities again.
Leftwing,
Your age is showing.
NJ of today is the equivalent of Deniro and Al Pacino as recent and expectant fathers as octogenarian vs the craziness, lack of civility, overall dumbness and cheer stupidity of the rest of the country with red states in the lead of the aforementioned.
We might be old, ugly looking and worn out. But we still can get a stiffy and knock some one up.
I found this amusing and, a bit accurate.
https://www.tiktok.com/@robert240679/video/7232785943244197147
HMB,
Don’t remember. Possibly. But that was a movie and this is someone’s real car. I’d bet they even still have payments on it.
Hold my beer says:
May 31, 2023 at 2:42 pm
Phoenix
I think in breaking bad Walter white did that to a sports car then set it on fire.
Been saying that data is king for $DNA for years. This is a good summary as to why.
Nobody else has anything close and it’s next to impossible to catch up.
AI is the buzzword but it’s just a tool to realise the potential of the repository.
https://twitter.com/dagetz/status/1664043559836581892?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
This guy works in the industry and knows his chit. Telling you, you guys are underestimating DNA and the biotech “im finally here” moment.
And you see what it takes to bag a winner. Major balls and nerves of steel. I have major conviction. I feed off the noise. No individual made a killing on an investment that was picture perfect. They made it on companies people said were chit. Anyone remember the “scamazon” days. Those were fun. You have to invest in what you believe is right for you. I did my hw on DNA. I did my hw on ETH. Those are two investments that I believe have some major growth coming their way…esp DNA.
1/🧬Earlier this April, we got the chance to co-host the Network States x Synbio summit together with @Synbiobeta . Joining us was no other than @jrkelly, CEO of @ginkgo, presenting on how we can accelerate the engineering biology
Here were some of the key takeaways…
https://twitter.com/valley_dao/status/1663922788615217152?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
“Artificial intelligence (AI) is disrupting the biotech in multiple ways. It is revolutionizing drug discovery, enabling personalized medicine, optimizing biomanufacturing processes, advancing genomics, and transforming diagnostics. $AMRS $DNA
AI powered diagnostics are enhancing accuracy and enabling early detection of diseases.”
Awwww, Geeez.
Not again:
Pennsylvania school staff member is fired and arrested for having sex with a 16-year-old student and sending his 15-year-old friend nude pictures
Megan Carlisle, 37, a paraprofessional and in-school-suspension (ISS) monitor school monitor in the Elizabethtown Area School District in Lancaster County
She now faces charges of involuntary deviate sexual intercourse, institutional sexual assault,, statutory sexual assault among others
Northwest Regional Police believe that there are many more victims
AI powered diagnostics???? Hello Watson? That was a two decade effort, and it did not work well at all.
Is way more than that, anyway. There is a company out there working to map each molecule in the human exhale to develop a non-invasive and rapid method to revolutionize healthcare, detect diseases at an early stage from a single breath test. The idea here is to develop parts-per-trillion disease detection on a chip, integrated into smartphones.
No bloodwork, just blow onto your smartphone and the lasers will analyze your breath molecules for disease markers.
This is coming out of covid-19 detection research too, using ultra-sensitive broadband laser spectroscopy.
Phoenix – re: Not again
It’s not new, Van Halen was singing about it 40 years ago.
I think of all the education that I’ve missed
But then my homework was never quite like this
Ow! Got it bad, got it bad, got it bad
I’m hot for teacher
I’ve got it bad, so bad
I’m hot for teacher