From Seeking Alpha:
Mortgage Rates Re-Spike To 7% Range As It Sinks In That Fed Won’t Cut Rates ‘Anytime Soon,’ Mortgage Applications Plunge To 1995 Levels
Spring selling season was a dud. But what comes next may be worse, that’s what mortgage applications and investors tell us
The 7% mortgages are back. The average interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming balances jumped to 6.91%, the highest since November, according to the weekly measure by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday.
The daily measure by Mortgage News Daily already went over 7% a few days last week and earlier this week.
“Inflation is still running too high, and recent economic data is beginning to convince investors that the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates anytime soon,” is how the Mortgage Bankers Association explained what has been obvious to us here for months.
And so, with these kinds of mortgage rates, spring selling season – the time of the year when sales and prices nearly always rise from the dreary days of the winter – has turned into an amazing dud.
What comes next may get sloppy. Mortgage applications to purchase a home are a forward-looking indicator of where home sales as measured by closed deals are headed in a month or two. The 7% mortgages are indigestible at current home prices – something has to give, and it’s not going to be mortgage rates.
First
It’s not going to be home prices, not in NJ. 50% of offers are 100% cash. Rates can go to 10% and it wouldn’t matter. If anything, there would then be even less sellers and it would cause even more of an issue for buyers. Interest rates are temporary – Marry the house, date the rate. NJ real estate market is going to be f’d for buyers for a long time. Should’ve bought when rates were sub-four. Only way home prices are going down is if unemployment is at 20% and builders have an oversupply of entry level new construction. Neither of those are happening any time soon. The supply / demand ratio is so out of whack and we are on a runaway train. Cheers to those that are homeowners and have no intention of moving. :)
See Daveman0720 above. I was just about to say something similar as I’ve been saying for weeks now. To repeat, if you have four walls and a roof, list today, accept the final offer by tomorrow.
Morning. The cash buyers are the house developers pulling the rug on a starter 500K home for a millennial couple. They level it and build a 1.4m Magnolia dream home for the other millennial couple with rich boomer parents, who got all money from Fed wealth inflation scheme. Welcome to new America. Inherit or die.
Received monthly Apple statement with 4.15% deposit
A lot of that inherited/stolen wealth from the scheme is coming directly from New Yorkers. Let’s face it, Wall St. got most of that sweet 2008 money injection. Now that they are fleeing the city for NJ, they have the firepower.
Student loan payments about to finally resume? What a joke? The sad part is, the past three years was a golden opportunity to pay down major principle on the loan that I’m sure nearly everyone chose to pass on.
Post of the year on jersey real estate.
Rates only matter when supply outweighs demand. You can raise that chit to 20% and it won’t drop housing pricing…it will just totally freeze the market to the point there are almost no transactions. Barely any transactions at 7%. What more is raising rates going to do but send the economy into a depression.
FED is in a very tough predicament, and it’s all because of the demographic impact on the job market. Raising rates doesn’t have the same effect on unemployment as it once did due to the simple fact that the supply of workers is not what it used to be.
Daveman0720 says:
June 1, 2023 at 6:41 am
It’s not going to be home prices, not in NJ. 50% of offers are 100% cash. Rates can go to 10% and it wouldn’t matter. If anything, there would then be even less sellers and it would cause even more of an issue for buyers. Interest rates are temporary – Marry the house, date the rate. NJ real estate market is going to be f’d for buyers for a long time. Should’ve bought when rates were sub-four. Only way home prices are going down is if unemployment is at 20% and builders have an oversupply of entry level new construction. Neither of those are happening any time soon. The supply / demand ratio is so out of whack and we are on a runaway train. Cheers to those that are homeowners and have no intention of moving. :)
YOLO!!….and then they cry later!
BRT says:
June 1, 2023 at 8:57 am
Student loan payments about to finally resume? What a joke? The sad part is, the past three years was a golden opportunity to pay down major principle on the loan that I’m sure nearly everyone chose to pass on.
Like Bystander talks about with off shoring of coding…
Oh, what could go wrong here..
“Good morning, CIOs. Of all the opportunities created by generative AI, tech leaders say automating code development is one of the most compelling. Executives across the board at United Airlines, Johnson & Johnson, Visa, Cardinal Health and others say they are exploring how to use generative AI tools to increase developer productivity.
But accelerating the delivery of code isn’t always a good thing, IT leaders say. It could also result in growing levels of complexity, technical debt and confusion as tech leaders try to manage a ballooning pile of software, CIO Journal reports.
“People have talked about technical debt for a long time, and now we have a brand new credit card here that is going to allow us to accumulate technical debt in ways we were never able to do before,” said Armando Solar-Lezama, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. “I think there is a risk of accumulating lots of very shoddy code written by a machine.”
But even if the code is good, the sheer amount created could still be hard to manage, said Vivek Jetley, executive vice president and head of analytics at EXL, a data analytics and digital operations and solutions company. CIOs will need to work to control and govern that code and prioritize what to keep, what to junk and how to run the system.”
A Visual Breakdown of America’s Stagnating Number of Births
Births stayed flat in 2022, with numbers down among younger women
About 3.66 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2022, essentially unchanged from 2021 and 15% below the peak hit in 2007, according to new federal figures released Thursday.
The provisional total—3,661,220 births—is about 3,000 below 2021’s final count, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics. Final government data expected later this year could turn that small deficit positive.
The link.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-visual-breakdown-of-americas-stagnating-number-of-births-9a2e6e2d
Wonder how many people will be back into the workforce based on the student loan payments, as well as the new work requirements for SNAP.
Lawyers using AI isn’t off to a great start. Saw another article with a US judge demanding lawyers sing a pledge not to use AI because of stuff like this.
https://nypost.com/2023/05/30/steven-schwartz-admits-he-used-chatgpt-to-file-bogus-court-doc/
Pumps – Lol…
The professor speaks of “technical debt” which is literally shoddy code written by humans that keeps piling up on top of old legacy code that perhaps other now dead people wrote and then goes on the say “I think there is a risk of accumulating lots of very shoddy code written by a machine”.
Second quote is a consultant company. Every company in the software business is now chomping at the bit to come in and bill your company a gazillion dollars to take your private data and implement large language models. Give us your enterprise data warehouses, operational data stores, and data marts and POOF we will give you a working AI that thinks like a human and perform tasks on its own..
OK….sure where do I sign the contract…
beer – Lawyers are usually first to circle the wagons, pledges, rulings, oaths and then crime and punishment…
Funny story you cite a lazy lawyer wants to play more golf or tennis, asks CHATGTP to write his court filing meanwhile has no idea it does not have and will never have access to data from LexisNexis and Westlaw etc. Like those companies are going to give away their secret sauce for free?
They will be assimilated.
What’s current unemployment rate?
3%, 4%?
grim says:
June 1, 2023 at 9:18 am
Wonder how many people will be back into the workforce based on the student loan payments, as well as the new work requirements for SNAP.
Pumps- Most Americans plan to have children, and the average intended number of children is right around 2, it’s been that number 2 for many decades now, since the 1960s which coincides with the advent of the sexual revolution, before that period the average number was 4 children. If that had stayed the same over the last 60 years nobody would be complaining about birth rates, it would be the opposite.
What is missing today many times is a good job, a stable relationship, affordable housing so people put off having children and that is why the rate has continued to drop. I know plenty of people with only 1 child, but most people these days have 2. Of all of my cousins most had 2 kids. There is one that had 4 but they are living up in the country so perhaps it costs less there.
Pumps: Familiarize yourself with NU. Natural Unintelligence
Why would anyone pay down student debt when Dems keep on tantalizing people with vague promises of student debt forgiveness? If there was even a 20% chance that some debt I had would be forgiven, free of charge, I’d keep it just in case I came true. The kinds of student that take the most useless college courses and rack up the most debt are probably the ones who were really believing their debt forgiveness could really come true. Debt forgiveness plus racial “reparations” and they’d soon be able to move on up to a deee-lux apartment on the east side.
re: “What’s current unemployment rate?”
Does not matter as we are nowhere near full employment. The unemployed drop off the unemployment rate calculation if they have not looked for work in the past 4 weeks.
There are 58 million women and 41 million men of working age not in the labor force. These aren’t retired people. The government surveys say of those people only 5 million say they want a job.
To get to historical full employment perhaps 16 million of those folks need to start some form of work.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Markets in the red again across the board. Another day, month and year of zero returns. Build broke better.
Can’t catch a break with this administration. Everything they touch turns to dreck. The O’Biden reign will be known as the bits and pieces tenure.
How many distractions can you pull out of the bag until the muppets take notice?
The term is “champing at the bit” originally, though now the mistaken derivative, “chomping” has become even more commonly used and linguistic defeatists now find it acceptable in use.
Continuing with my public service announcement, other common mistakes these days:
“Begs the question” – no that’s a philosophical term describing circular reasoning – instead one should say “raises the question”.
“Poignant” – often used now when the correct term for what they mean is “pertinent” (emotionally evocative vs relevant)
Biden should whine and cry about the rate hikes and call Powell an enemy bigger than China. I heard that is a great playbook, per someone who looked like evil King of the Oompa Loompas. Must of been who Willy rescued them from..
“Why would anyone pay down student debt when Dems keep on tantalizing people with vague promises of student debt forgiveness”
I’m taking out my $5,500 at 7% or so in hopes of college debt forgiveness. The days of being rewarded for doing it right are long over. You only get rewarded for fucking up in this country. The more costly the error, the more help you will receive. Moral hazard went from avoidance to exploitable in 2007.
re: “linguistic defeatists”
For the last 600 years?
Chomping is in the dictionary and plenty of literature, so not first use or the last. It will be used long after you and I are dead. The year 1581 was the first know use of chomping…what did the old middle English speakers use for an intransitive verb before then? Just champing? Who switched it to chomping?
I know lets ask the AI…
“The word “chomping” is an alteration of the word “champ” which stems from an old Middle English word that has been around for at least 600 years and relates to the grinding of a horse’s teeth1. The first known use of “chomp” was in 1581. Is there anything else you would like to know?”
No author cited…Will have to spend some cycles looking up literature for the last 600 years? Nah.. Youse got my point? Lost in translation perhaps look up the word youse, as it was not coined by My Cousin Vinny..
Jeez, look at Target’s stock in free fall. Perhaps there are decent plays in the market. Who else is on a corporate suicide mission?
Why would anyone pay down student debt when Dems keep on tantalizing people with vague promises of student debt forgiveness?
Being the cynical person I am, I would imagine, they don’t actually want to do that. Just use it as a perpetual carrot to vote for them. In the meantime, if Republicans reclaim the presidency, it’s an opportunity missed.
BRT – re: “they don’t actually want to do that”
Probably correct as more democrats in the house just voted to restart student loan payments than republicans. I would expect the senate vote to be the same.
Nothing like a little Armageddon to bring the parties together to vote for something reasonable like not defaulting etc, salt in a little more sanity like paying your debts etc.
Yes I know PPP loan forgiveness yes you too should have committed fraud as well. Maybe next time.
Just use it as a perpetual carrot to vote for them.
It’s what dems do best; throw you a life preserver while the other end is tied to nothing.
Both parties make unrealistic promises. Repubs promised to get rid of Roe V Wade for 50 years, then just recently delivered, almost by accident, thanks to a president who has probably paid for a lot of abortions over the years.
Reparations will probably be the next thing dangling for decades.
And “the wall”
Anyway, a society generally gets the politicians and political system they deserve.
Juice Box says:
June 1, 2023 at 9:52
“Most Americans plan to have children, and the average intended number of children is right around 2, it’s been that number 2 for many decades.”
“Now what is missing today many times is a good job, a stable relationship, affordable housing so people put off having children and that is why the rate has continued to drop.”
Nope. All you need is for two people to hook up for 10 minutes. I know TONS of young women who, if the “right” guy would bury it deep, would have a kid before I finish typing this. But the “right” guys are scarce, or scared.
Then you end up with kids and unstable parenthood. Expect more of this. The pressure is on for women to have kids, as they have a time limit, and men to refuse to have them, as they are working on their careers.
Eddie,
Your post gets my vote for post of the day:
Fast Eddie says:
June 1, 2023 at 10:42 am
Just use it as a perpetual carrot to vote for them.
It’s what dems do best; throw you a life preserver while the other end is tied to nothing.
Jeez, look at Target’s stock in free fall. Perhaps there are decent plays in the market. Who else is on a corporate suicide mission?
It’s all fun and games to play “Cancel Culture” until you have to drive 10 miles to shop.
These stores/beer companies aren’t promoting anything, they are just trying to sell more products and turn a profit.
There is a Target not far from me that many who walk depend on, even those that fear the rainbow. Bet they will regret this when there is an empty building, laid off employees, and higher taxes.
Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.
Juice: Rhetorical question, but how are all these people not working surviving? Is it all welfare and SNAP? Do the numbers include married couples/ partner couples, where one chooses not to work, or does not have to?
Going to be a great election. A brain dead alzheimer patient, a porky Ex NJ passive aggressive road closer, A loudmouth pgrabber who’s criminality is suspect, and a droning whiny guy from Florida who is a mouse killer, and according to Trump, is absent a personality.
The game has ended before it even got started.
Lot’s and lot’s of unhappiness on this board today, reminds me of a herd of bleating sheep.
Baahhhhh:
Mother of girl, 12, who stabbed her brother, nine, to death in ‘demonic’ rage pens heartbreaking 800-word defense of her ‘happy, energetic, normal, god-fearing child’ – as she vows to stand by her
The girl stabbed her nine-year-old brother Zander to death on January 5
The election is off to a great start:
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1664038323273322496
HaHaHa, yeah Stone’s a real card:
The US Department of Justice has sued Roger Stone, saying the close ally of former president Donald Trump owes about $2m in unpaid federal income taxes, according to a court document.
The civil lawsuit, filed in federal court in Florida on Friday, alleged that Stone and his wife, Nydia, used a commercial entity to “shield their personal income from enforced collection and fund a lavish lifestyle despite owing nearly $2m in unpaid taxes, interest and penalties”.
Stone did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Roger StoneFILE – In this Nov. 12, 2019, file photo, Roger Stone leaves federal court in Washington. Facebook on Wednesday, July 8, 2020, said it has removed dozens of accounts linked to the hate group Proud Boys, to President Donald Trump’s longtime ally Roger Stone and to employees of Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, among others. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)
Roger Stone: five things to know about Trump’s controversial ally
Read more
Stone, 68, is a long-time Republican political operative, known for his high-end wardrobe, outspoken comments and tattoo on his back of former president Richard Nixon. The self-styled “dirty trickster” faced fresh scrutiny after the attack on the US Capitol for his links with far-right groups, though he was not part of the insurrection.
Isn’t it the military’s job to FOLLOW orders, not GIVE them?
Classified documents discussed by Trump on leaked audio reveal Mark Milley had plan to attack Iran: report
The document detailed a plan drafted by General Mark Milley to attack Iran.
In Meadows’ autobiography, it recalls the 2021 meeting at Trump’s Bedminster, New Jersey golf club, stating that Trump “recalls a four-page report typed up by (Trump’s former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) Mark Milley himself. It contained the general’s own plan to attack Iran, deploying massive numbers of troops, something he urged President Trump to do more than once during his presidency.”
Phoenix – re: “right” guys are scarce, or scared.
I know several men in Gex X including my brother who will never get married or have children, they are in the afraid category. Who really knows. Life can be a crap shoot, and the odds are almost always not in your favor. You should roll the dice anyway…
You did leave out batting for the other team. I know a few as well one was even voted the most eligible bachelor back on the old village at home in Ireland. Funny now thinking back on that one why he even decided to allow his name to be entered, as he prefers slender Asian men…..needless to say he lives here now, life in the village was not for him. Sold the family farm too….and way too early as well the land today is much more valuable as the population has increased by 25% since then.
11:07 Phoenix can we please stop with the ever constant reposts from The Daily Mail. It makes you MORE tedious than you might imagine. It’s a paper geared toward middle class UK housewives. Nuff Said.
11:19 I cannot imagine being “single” for life and denying myself the chance to marry and have a kid. You just have to find the right woman. Sure, it’s scary if you are marrying a child who depends upon you. But if you find a fully formed woman….that’s a game changer. I would think being “single” for life would be incredibly lonely.
I’m no fan of Stone, so no need for a documentary.
However, he hit the bullseye with that tweet.
This is what Twitter and TikTok are best at. Zingers.
This guy thinks he has a chance with all of those flying beach chair memes? He hates the public, so much that he kept flying over it in the NJ State helicopter.
The youth are still playing the game, just not getting married. One I know took some great pictures of her boyfriend, she got so angry when he dumped her and used her pictures to promote himself to the next girlfriend. She sees them on his profile and Insta, and it really burns her. That is what dating is now. What attracted her to him, his Van Cleef bracelet. And now her clock keeps on ticking like a Timex.
“I know several men in Gex X including my brother who will never get married or have children, they are in the afraid category. Who really knows. Life can be a crap shoot, and the odds are almost always not in your favor. You should roll the dice anyway…”
Idocracy was supposed to be humor flick, but my guess is that it’s turning out to be a documentary.
“Been saying that data is king for $DNA for years.”
Yup, I’m tapping out on DNA. This company has only been public for nine months. You did not even know it existed a year ago. You’re on full tilt. Spewing a word soup of buzzwords. Again, sincerely, good luck with whatever you call this…but please don’t call it investing because it’s not.
“AI powered diagnostics???? Hello Watson? That was a two decade effort, and it did not work well at all. Is way more than that, anyway. There is a company out there working to map each molecule in the human exhale to develop a non-invasive and rapid method to revolutionize healthcare, detect diseases at an early stage from a single breath test….”
Funny, I placed a round for a company in that space almost two decades ago. That part of their business didn’t take off – processing power not there yet – but other parts did. Sold to a major medtech about ten years ago for $300m or so. Positive return, but risk adjusted not the best.
Similar to the old saying that if you don’t know who the mark is at the poker table, it’s you….if one doesn’t know the competitors’ science around an investment – vertical and horizontal – and how these companies cycle their financings then investors in those companies are the mark…I avoided biotech for the most part because while I knew and could be profitable with the second component I did not know nor would I ever know the first component…meaning that no matter how much money comes your way ya gotta like the guy looking back at you in the mirror….
https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/shark-tank-star-barbara-corcoran-warns-bloodbath-coming-real-estate-sector
The Rs have a hard-on for the student borrowers yet never blinked an eye when we all paid for programs to write down mortgage balances or refi to lower rates even when “owners” were unqualified to do so. Is that not an agreement to pay debt? Why the hypocrisy? Oh, because younger people don’t vote R. Let’s not mention that while many got 1.85% to 3.5% rates, many private loan student lower borrowers were excluded, paying 5-7%. It is a bunch of bs by people who refuse to see how young consumers side gets robbed while corp/banking class get every bailout and break possible. As the Ds are awful as well. Let’s see how many politicians have their personal wealth tied up in student paying their balances. We can get off the moral high horse of debt obligation.
Who said red Ed? Hey that rhymes. Green like a machine.
Who said red Ed?
I made a phone call to stop the slide.
Let’s see if we can stay green for a change.
I could be wrong, but I remember a lot of people complaining. Wasn’t it mostly republicans complaining with democrats pushing Harp, Hamp, at al (granted an R wasn’t in the Whitehouse). Maybe I’m just remembering the people here that were rightfully complaining.
Bystander says:
June 1, 2023 at 12:01 pm
The Rs have a hard-on for the student borrowers yet never blinked an eye when we all paid for programs to write down mortgage balances or refi to lower rates even when “owners” were unqualified to do so. Is that not an agreement to pay debt? Why the hypocrisy?
Reparations – “You’ll get nothing and you’ll like it!!” Judge Smails
Joyce,
Did they fight to the Supreme Court? No. The only fight was whether it contained enough pilfering and bloat as usual. It passed by Rs just fine. I am also cynical enough to believe that Rs know basically how many Ds will vote for spending thereby decreasing their vote enough to make it seem like they are fiscally conservative party while allowing the bill to pass.
How much do you tip the guy who installs new dishwasher and hauls away the old one?
Depends what are the charging for the service? $1500$200 or more?
20% of that fee perhaps, $40 bucks tops.
Yup. $20 to $40.
Ooooops Joe falls …. that sumbitch is clumsy
ExEx says:
June 1, 2023 at 3:38 pm
Ooooops Joe falls …. that sumbitch is clumsy
The problem is Joe is old and suffers from dementia, just give him some chocolate chip ice cream and he will be fine. Falling is almost normal with 80+ year olds.
Real estate is fine. Ben Affleck and JLo just paid $61m for a 12br, 24bath house in Beverly Hills. They won’t have to smell each others’ poop from now on. Their love is filled with taco-flavored kisses.
youtube.com/watch?v=bQKDlNTEl6w
What are the odds that SNL will finally do a skit making fun of Joe B falling and talking like someone with dementia?
Only happens if the left have decided to swap horses.
Anyone remember how SNL in the 70s had Chevy Chase pretending to be Ford falling all over the place?
youtube.com/watch?v=RppUlt7KCPE&t=6s
(see 2:13)
We had our 6 month old Samsung dishwasher stop working this weekend with a PC code, service guy is coming out tomorrow. Do not have confidence this will be a long term appliance.
Trick : Did you check the filter? If it gets clogged, you have to clean it, and then run it empty for a couple of times before it resets itself. Check the filter often if you don’t. My old Sears Kenmare was the best, no problems for years. These new energy efficient ones take so long to run a cycle too.
Thanks. It was 1 guy so I tipped $20. We got our new LG dishwasher today.
Samsung is good for one thing. High Def LED TV sets.
Go to LG for most other appliances.
Seattle Amazon Employees Protest Returning To The Office Due To “Climate Change”
7:46 they got absolutely destroyed this year – chip losses that bled into the whole company. I’ve always thought they were knuckleheads personally.
4:49 SNL has been very “unfunny” at various intervals.
I wouldn’t look to them to lead the way much. Though that’s
a great set-up for a skit. Stumbling into a fat lady-bikers lap…?
5:12 Kenmore probably the most underrated appliances in the free world.
I remember when you protested returning to the office.
Filter is clean, this dishwasher is completely different from any I have had in the past. The bottom shots water from a straight bar instead of spinning. It is so quite you only hear it when its draining.
Washer and drier are LG, only repair I had to make was replacing the sensor on the dryer, easy fix
1st LCD tv i bought was a samsung, think I paid $2500 at the time and it died in 2 years, Replaced with a panasonic plasma that it still in my living room. Waiting for it to died so I can upgrade lol