Starting to feel a little toppy

From CNBC:

Home prices continue to climb with ‘striking’ regional differences, says S&P Case-Shiller

Home prices in May rose for the fourth straight month on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, but regional differences are widening.

The gains come despite a sharp jump in mortgage interest rates during the month.

Prices nationally rose 0.7% month to month, seasonally adjusted. The index’s 10-city composite gained 1.1%, and the 20-city composite gained 1%.

Prices nationally were still down 0.5% compared with May 2022, but they are just 1% below their June 2022 peak.

The 10-city composite fell 1%, year over year, slightly less than the 1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-city composite dropped 1.7%, the same as the annual decline in April.

“Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director at the S&P DJI. “Granted, the last four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months.”

Lazzara, however, noted that “regional differences continue to be striking,” with cities in the so-called Rust Belt outperforming the rest of the nation. Prices in Chicago gained 4.6%; in Cleveland, 3.9%; and New York, 3.5% — making for the top performers. The Midwest took over the South’s reign as the strongest region.

“If this seems like an unusual occurrence to you, it seems that way to me too. It’s been five years to the month since a cold-weather city held the top spot (and that was Seattle, which isn’t all that cold),” added Lazzara.

Of the 20-city composite, 10 cities saw lower prices in the year ended May 2023 versus the year ended April 2023 and 10 saw higher prices.

Cities in the West, where prices had inflated the most, were the worst performers in May. Seattle, down 11.3%, and San Francisco, down 11%, were the worst.

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57 Responses to Starting to feel a little toppy

  1. Fastest Eddie says:

    For today, Wednesday, July 26, 2023, the current average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.28%, increasing 13 basis points over the last week.

    J Po going another 25 basis points today. Party on. My house is now in the seven digit price range. Highest and best by 5 PM. Tape your offer sheet to a bag of squirrel food along with a love letter outlining reasons why I should consider your offer.

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    $150,000 down, $5,200 per month in PITI will get you this luxurious expanse! Just think of the envy your friends and family will experience when you tell them you moved to Paramus!

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paramus/723-stevens-ct-paramus-nj-07652–1107785559

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    $800,000, up from $725,000, description says it needs TLC (Do I even have to translate?), short sale. But hey, nothing defines envy like an Allendale address!

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/allendale/1-e-elbrook-dr-allendale-nj-07401–2088562283

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    $629,000… 4bd, ONE BATH, four walls and a roof. The description says, “Blue Ribbon Schools!” $126,000 down, $4,300 per month in PITI. We’re bleeding wealth here.
    Hurry! This gem won’t last!

    https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/fair-lawn/37-17-jasper-rd-fair-lawn-nj-07410–2190032433

  5. Phoenix says:

    ExEx says:
    July 25, 2023 at 7:28 pm
    7:22 you seem tense.

    https://youtu.be/myjOxqav7OA?t=318

  6. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    That 800k house is a short sale too.

  7. leftwing says:

    “Said it before is a Genius in Florida relative to Florida Man/Woman. Outside of the cokehead sharknado sweaty waste land he’s out of his league.”

    Too many advisers. These politicians still don’t realize that a large swath of the populace is looking for an unvarnished, real person. Basis of how DJT squeaked in…Plus, the Catch-22 setup of the Parties that has candidates moving to the extremes to capture the nomination…

    “The Great Pumpkin says: July 25, 2023 at 8:07 pm: Since our data began in 2008, it has never cost less to protect against an S&P drawdown in the next 12 months.”

    leftwing says:
    July 20, 2023 at 5:11 pm
    Threw on some low cost, high return SPY shorts today, breakeven 1% down, 4:1 payout…

    Not bearish, some positions are just cheap while the shares are hitting some boundaries offering some serious asymmetric return potential…those two criteria combined usually produce near term good returns over an adequate data set.

  8. No One says:

    DeSantis is fading hard. He was liked because of his common sense rejection of big government. But then he’s been campaigning as a holy culture warrior. People in FL liked him because he got vaccines to the elderly first, kept restaurants, stores, and beaches open, and isn’t a big tax & spender. Sure, criticize some crazy woke professors, but I don’t think most people, or even most Republicans in FL are looking to ban abortion, go to war on Disney, or have textbooks directly written by the governor’s team.

    I know a few Republican insiders in Florida, and even 5 months ago they were becoming increasingly disappointed at how tone-deaf DeSantis was as he was preparing for his Presidential run. Even basic stuff like making direct phone calls asking for help from potential allies in the Republican party of Florida, he wouldn’t do it, while Trump was.

    While I agree with DeSantis that the left’s takeover of education is terrible, he should focus more on school choice than banning books. Let the LGBTQ+ enthusiasts start their own charter school with nonstop drag queen story hour, then wait a few years to do a sting operation on the child molesters that show up. There will be a lot more charter schools that just focus on academic excellence, the classics, and won’t waste resources on woke materials. Let a thousand flowers bloom. But DeSantis instead is becoming more perceived for taking away choice than expanding educational choice.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The US economy is in for rollercoaster inflation and could be headed for an ultra-rare ‘full employment recession,’ BlackRock, $BLK, has said.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I like thinking, Lefty. Nice cheap contrarian play that very well might happen.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Teledoc up 21%…unreal.

  12. Libturd says:

    NoOne,

    Back in March I wrote on DeSantis:

    “Though his pedigree should convince you that he’s intelligent and experienced, in his dealings in Florida, he is constantly cutting off his nose to spite his face. Examples of this include his anti-public health stance on vaccination mandates for cruisers during the pandemic and his complete mishandling of Disney, a company that represents nearly 2% of Florida’s GDP. Not to mention the local property taxes they pay and half a million people (yes that’s right) they employ. DeSantis might be principled, but his lack of common sense is downright scary.”

    It was only a matter of time.

    He pulled a Chris Christie. Did nearly everything right for the electorate until his presidential ambitions steered him to have to take positions that went against what the Florida electorate wanted. And again, continues to pick the wrong battles.

  13. Very Stable Genius says:

    Gary, DeSantis still your candidate?

  14. Bystander says:

    The truth is that Florida is more purple than red. Lots of old f*cks will vote R bc they think their taxes will remain low but Ron’s woke attack on Disney and teachers rings hollow to much of state. Also, kissing Dumpy’s fat Orange tuchus does nothing but legitimize his campaign. How can you catch up when you won’t call out the insanity of guy being front-runner? He is so fearful of the cult when you absolutely need to chop his knees off. You have to make primary about getting rid of the Orange goon then make next focus Biden. Christie gets that at least.

  15. 1987 Condo says:

    Florida will be getting much negative press going forward due to rising homeowner insurance costs, cancellations, rising property taxes, rising flood insurance and, perhaps mostly, the 2025 condo reserve law requirements.

  16. ExEx says:

    Florida has always “paid” in sunshine too.

  17. ExEx says:

    Jim, you go your way I’ll go mine I don’t wish you any harm. My BIL works at UPS too.
    Lifer! Is very close to retirement. I respect it. G-d bless the unions!

  18. No One says:

    I’d still vote for DeSantis over Trump, but it looks like it won’t matter. Return of the Mad King as nominee, unless health or prison bars make it impossible for Trump.

  19. BRT says:

    Rising homeowner insurance isn’t limited to Florida. My friend in Colorado said his doubled this past year.

  20. Hughesrep says:

    9:58

    Just perusing the news on a daily basis I’d be more afraid for the kids in churches and religious schools than at drag shows.

  21. Libturd says:

    No claims in the last five years and mine jumped up 50% without warning. Of course, I moved to NJM and it ended up dropping by 25% from what I paid the prior year. Again, there is no loyalty in insurance. It actually works against you.

    Any opinions on Wayne Mazda?

  22. Old realtor says:

    My buyer’s $761,000 offer was only good enough to be in the middle of the pack. Highest price ever paid for a 1.5 bath home in Westwood. Only 1450 GLA. Insanity!

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/39-James-St-Westwood-NJ-07675/38057298_zpid/

  23. Boomer Remover says:

    What a mania!

    UFB

  24. Boomer Remover says:

    Lib,
    I received a speeding ticket in Staten Island last year. I hold a NJ license and registration.

    My Geico premium hasn’t gone up. Is now a bad time to switch insurers?

    I priced w/o and w/ticket between the two and my savings evaporated when I priced w/ticket. Do you think they would find it if I opened a policy?

  25. Bystander says:

    So Old..this will go for 800k? Honestly, why did buyers not go higher? What is the profile of such a buyer? Age, occupations (dual income?), percentage down. Curious how this can keep going.

  26. Libturd says:

    Boomer,

    Nothing gained or lost by getting estimates. Often, tickets do not cross state lines, even when there is supposed to be reciprocity. I’ve had about five tickets in my life. Two for speeding and one for vehicular trespass. Should have been four for speeding, but I claimed I lost None impacted my insurance. The speeding tickets were in New York. The tickets I got in NJ besides the trespass, should have been for speeding, but I did the old trick where I claimed I could not find my insurance and registration card. They then gave me a ticket for missing credentials (no points) instead of speeding. If they came back and said I was getting a ticket for both, I would mysteriously reveal the credentials. It’s an old Captain Cheapo trick I learned from a Porsche owner who refused to slow down. Dud spent more time in driving school to reduce points than he actually drove too.

  27. No One says:

    I just discovered SBF was planning a quasi – Nompound on a grander scale.
    (What ever happened to Comrade Nom de Plume?)
    “According to new court filings, Bankman-Fried had chalked out how he would purchase the island nation of Nauru. Come the great fire or flood, he would move himself and his colleagues in the effective altruism movement into a bunker there, to wait out the apocalypse. …
    The ultimate strategy, according to the memo, was “to purchase the sovereign nation of Nauru in order to construct a ‘bunker / shelter’ that would be used for some event where 50%-99.99% of people die [to] ensure that most EAs (effective altruists) survive.” The memo also mentioned to plans to develop “sensible regulation around human genetic enhancement, and build a lab there,” noting that perhaps “there are other things it’s useful to do with a sovereign country, too.””

  28. Libturd says:

    That got screwed up sorry. Bottom line, it never hurts to switch. If it goes up, switch again.

  29. No One says:

    Libturd,
    You sure the missing credentials tactic still works? How long ago was it you got away with that?
    I thought at least in some places the police will have the registration tied to the license plate, and would have your license info associated with your name and address. And I don’t think you can get away with not providing this info to the police (“I forgot my name and address, officer”.)

    Both my wife and I got nabbed by two separate tricky police traps in April in FL, and both of us took online driver safety training from The Comedy Store to avoid the points. Their driving jokes aren’t that funny, btw.

  30. BRT says:

    Mitch McConnel now being put up in front of the podium like a corpse.

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1684266611379691532

    If he wasn’t an elected official, he’d be sitting in a nursing home drooling right now.

  31. Libturd says:

    NoOne both times were probably around ten years ago. Of course, I had my license. Just told them I couldn’t find the registration and insurance cards in the glove box. Of course, I knew exactly where they were. I have a little transparent pocket I keep them in in both cars.

  32. Libturd says:

    I think I’m gonna run for the Senate. I’ll just tell everyone I am 90 years old and I’m sure to get elected.

    That Mitch McConnel video was worse than many of the Biden videos.

    I’d love to see those two play ping pong. In Wayne.

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    My buyer’s $761,000 offer was only good enough to be in the middle of the pack.

    Train kept-a-rollin’ all night long.

  34. BRT says:

    Republicans, if they were smart, would start to demand en masse that Mitch resigns due to health/age issues because if that were successful, it would put more pressure on Biden, Pelosi, Feinstein, Fetterman and whoever else is braindead to leave as well.

  35. No One says:

    Mitch McConnell is one of the least charismatic Senate Minority Leaders in history. Living proof that being a Washington insider pays. But Repubs have voluntarily installed him as their spokesman. He’s like Joe Biden but even less interesting. I doubt McConnell has ever made an inspiring speech in his long political career. Biden at least inspired a few kids with his plagiarized speeches 30+ years ago.

  36. No One says:

    BRT,
    True, any Republican mocking Biden’s many signs of rapid deterioration who doesn’t similarly criticize McConnell being in power is a hypocrite.

  37. Juice Box says:

    Humm, seems Hunter Biden and his lawyer are going to be hitting the bong hard tonight. Not-guilty plea entered by Hunter Biden. Judge won’t accept or deny any deal just yet, but the one thing is the Judge won’t accept some kind of unlimited immunity against further charges and the defense was expecting full immunity not just limited to a set of tax, drug and firearm offenses but other federal offences which according the the FBI Director Christopher Wray’s recent congressional testimony are still under investigation.

  38. Phoenix says:

    No One says:
    July 26, 2023 at 2:14 pm
    Libturd,
    You sure the missing credentials tactic still works? How long ago was it you got away with that?

    Lib,
    Next time you want to avoid a ticket, just whip your boobs out.

    Or maybe not. Or maybe.

    Just don’t do it in view of the body camera.

  39. Juice Box says:

    So we had a Congressional hearing today about Aliens and UFOs and no real evidence other than hearsay testimony and two fighter jocks that said they saw something but have no real evidence to present either.

    What a letdown…I was hoping for at least once picture of a craft or ET that was not blurry..

  40. Phoenix says:

    Kevin Spacey not guilty.

    I wonder how much he will get back from his false accusers.

  41. Phoenix says:

    Juice,

    We have evidence of aliens.

    It’s called Congress.

    Oops, I thought you said dinosaurs.

  42. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,

    There is going to come a day where you are going to wish you put your house on the market, rented, and bought back in the upcoming crash.

  43. BRT says:

    Prior to getting the gold card, I learned how to get out of tickets. You signal, pull over safely, roll down all windows, dome light on (even if it’s light out), keys out of the ignition and on the dashboard, hands at 10 and 2. Then, you admit exactly what you did wrong. The police instruct their family members to do this.

  44. Fast Eddie says:

    There is going to come a day where you are going to wish you put your house on the market, rented, and bought back in the upcoming crash.

    Believe me, that thought occurred a few dozen times.

  45. Phoenix says:

    BRT,

    What is the gold card?

  46. BRT says:

    haha, Phoenix, wasn’t looking to set you off but here we go. The gold card is a “family member” card. It has your name imprinted on it permanently along with the statement “Property of the bearer”, so they police officer cannot confiscate it from you, unlike the white PBA cards that say “property of the PBA”. It’s the next level of get out of jail free cards. If a cop in NY/NJ pulls me over and sees it, they don’t even run my license of plate, they just send me on my way.

    I was given it by a cop who my father saved his premature son from death. So I’m not even a family member but I have it. That being said, I’ve been pulled over 3 times in the past 10 years.

  47. Phoenix says:

    BRT,
    I knew what it was.

    I guess it works better than Lib’s boobs.

  48. Jim says:

    ExEx says:
    July 26, 2023 at 11:37 am
    Jim, you go your way I’ll go mine I don’t wish you any harm. My BIL works at UPS too.
    Lifer! Is very close to retirement. I respect it. G-d bless the unions!

    I have no problem with that, remember you attacked me . Read about it when you are sober only because I think you get confused. I never throw the first punch, but I sure as hell will hit back hard. Why don’t you just have your wife proofread what you write, it would save a lot of grief.

  49. Jim says:

    BRT says:
    July 26, 2023 at 2:21 pm
    Mitch McConnel now being put up in front of the podium like a corpse.

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1684266611379691532

    That is scary , he needs to resign….looked like a stroke. Age limits are needed nobody over 70.

  50. Phoenix says:

    Jim,
    No such luck.

    Old goats run America, it’s fashionable to die at your career if you are in Congress or a Supreme Court Judge.

  51. Libturd says:

    What if I paint my boobs gold?

  52. BRT says:

    They gotta be stamped with property of the bearer

  53. Phoenix says:

    Libturd says:
    July 26, 2023 at 9:20 pm
    What if I paint my boobs gold?

    Let BRT feel them after you do, he will give you his PBA card.

    It’s a good deal. I’d suggest you take it.

  54. Boomer Remover says:

    Are Phoenix and I the only two dirty renters here waiting for the mania to die down?

  55. Libturd says:

    ChiFi is a lifetime renter if I recall correctly.

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