From ATTOM:
New Jersey And Illinois Have Highest Concentrations Of Housing Markets At Risk Of Declines
ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, today released a Special Housing Impact Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, foreclosures and other measures in the second quarter of 2023. The report shows that New Jersey and Illinois have the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with the biggest clusters in the New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia areas. The South, along with other parts of the Northeast, are generally less exposed to market woes.
The second-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that New Jersey and Illinois had 23 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential drop-offs. Those concentrations dwarfed other parts of the country amid a time of significant uncertainty when the U.S. housing market was rebounding from a period of flat or falling values.
The 50 counties at the top of the most vulnerable list included eight in and around New York City, six in the Chicago metropolitan area and three in or near Philadelphia. Another six were scattered through northern, central and southern California. A majority of the rest were in Indiana and along the East Coast.
…
Seventeen of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the second quarter of 2023 to housing market troubles (from among 574 counties with enough data to analyze) were in the metropolitan areas around Chicago, IL; New York, NY, and Philadelphia, PA.
The 50 most at-risk counties included two in New York City (Kings and Richmond counties, which cover Brooklyn and Staten Island), six in the New York City suburbs (Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey) and six in the Chicago metropolitan area (Cook, De Kalb, Kane, Kendall, and Will counties in Illinois, and Porter County in Indiana). The three in the Philadelphia, PA, metro area that were among the top 50 in the second quarter were Philadelphia County, PA, Gloucester County, NJ, and Camden County, NJ.
First
No way Bergen Co, or any area in north Jersey, we are special here. They obviously don’t know what they are talking about.
Let me know when the listings double and maybe I’ll reconsider this report. And if mortgage rates decline with substantial meat on the bone, you think prices are going to decline despite the number of listings? Have you ever tried pulling conch from a shell?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UqX32uvb3Qk&pp=ygUfIFdlIGFyZSBkaWZmZXJlbnQgaGVyZSBqaiBlcnNleQ%3D%3D
Fast: When rates go back to 3 percent, a 3 bed 1 bath house in Carlstadt will cost $1000,000.00, and adjust upwards from there for the more prestigious towns.
PPI increases 0.7 in August, largest increase in 14 months. Traders say Fed is done raising rates for 2023.
re: “Traders say Fed is done”
Not until we get a happy ending…
If the Fed backs off too soon, inflation comes back stronger. To get to the happy ending we have to raise even more and go even quicker otherwise No Joy!…
Newark airport. Lordy Lord
https://tinyurl.com/3wub2kx2
Juice: I agree, but the market is dismissive of that. Fed is done, and so next is cuts, and back to the races.
I say the FED needs to start dropping rates so I can walk away with seven digits.
Libturd, where are you? Are you still considering Vegas?
Phoenix,
That woman in that video is hot! I’m wondering if she’s single! :o
Phoenix
The internet is awesome.
Too bad we can’t sample the blood of these people who have meltdowns like this. Be interesting to see if they are severely deficient in certain nutrients like magnesium.
One is supposedly a malpractice lawyer, the other is a Nurse practitioner.
Not uneducated slobs. I don’t understand how educated white women manage to become like this in middle age. Yet I have seen hundreds of videos like this.
Otoh I just read a story about migrants crossing the Darien Pass with their kids, one of least hospitable places on earth. Watched a video about it once where 4 seasoned military vets attempted this and how horrible it was, but migrants do it with their children just to “hope” to come to America to pick your fruits or landscape for you, but white American women have meltdowns in airports having to wait a few minutes for a plane.
BTW some of those 20 year old Columbian migrant women didn’t look like those two overfed farm animals.
The 50 most at-risk counties included two in New York City (Kings and Richmond counties, which cover Brooklyn and Staten Island), six in the New York City suburbs (Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey)…
My family had a 2nd house in Ocean County and I bought my 1st house there. It’s okay to visit but to live in OC was taxing on the senses. Two years and two fender benders commuting up the Parkway every day was enough. That’s despite the lack of culture all around which I could almost tolerate… so I thought.
But why is OC on the list? You’re 80 miles from NYC and 70 miles from Philly. It’s in the middle of nowhere. Once you hit the Monmouth Cty line it’s like going from Dorothy’s farm to the merry old land of OZ. Monmouth Cty. is beautiful all around. Ocean Cty. is scrub pines and route 9 forever.
And you can forget Northern Toms River now which had a decent spattering of beautiful homes unless you converted to uber conservative Judaism… which there’s nothing wrong with that but it’s now become Lakewood South. I digress. Why is Ocean Cty. even considered being ‘at risk’? Are they talking about the beach towns only?
Happy Monmouth is not on this, as things have barely doubled here in the past 4 years
Quote from the migrant article:
Incredible. As long as we welcome them, they’ll come. As long as businesses hire and pay in cash to avoid paperwork and tax, they will come. As long as the GOP plays games, while pretending to not make billions from the influx of cheap labor for their mega farms, mega contractors and mega fast food donors, they will come. As long as the Democrats pander to the extremes and ignore the reality, they will come.
Make no mistake, these people are coming here for money and money alone.
Start enforcing the laws or continue to see the middle class decimated and the political class enriched.
If people understood who is paying who and where that cash (its all cash) goes, they’d be tossing out every incumbent in office and refusing to pay taxes. Its a two tiered system, one where those who snub the law, get free stuff while the people who follow it are taxed and beaten down.
I do love Monmouth….just hope it doesn’t get overdeveloped, but it will. NYC will continue to spread and spread because it is the most powerful economy in the world.
Good morning. Europe’s largest mall owner said last year that it planned to shed most of its U.S. portfolio by the end of 2023. Now, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield is saying … not so fast. The Paris-based company intends to hold some of its top-performing malls beyond that self-imposed deadline and is even investing more money into some of them. Kate King explains how this reflects the improving outlook for higher-end American malls.
Amazon.com has a new Manhattan office that will look a bit familiar to shoppers at Lord & Taylor. The fashion retailer’s former Fifth Avenue flagship store has been converted into an office building for about 2,000 Amazon employees. Konrad Putzier reports on the challenges Amazon faced in transforming a department store into modern workspace.
Even South Florida is not immune from a glut of supply in the multifamily market. The Miami metropolitan area has more units under construction as a share of inventory than any other major market in the country, Deborah Acosta reports. Most of that new supply is at the higher end, and it’s a big reason why rent prices for the area’s more expensive apartments were down in the second quarter.
Sorry you suckers bought in NJ. Fairfield County CT is truly the magical place. Not even a mention in ATTOM. 70-100% more for a house over last 3 years..no problem here. Up and away.
Bystander: Yes, and you have the added benefit, of having New England charm, and of course that means more prestige, and worth even more money.
No problem in nj….you see how much it ran up. Everyone on this blog should have listened to me the past 10 years when I was yelling to grab the free money and max out the loan into north jersey real estate. Could have killed it.
Phoenix
I suspect these meltdowns by affluent are a combination of being always coddled and nutrition deficiencies.
Needing a pack of smokes, hanging with a friend. What a distracted bunch.
Virginia toddler and dog die after being left in car for SIX HOURS in 100F temperatures by ‘caretaker’ Kristen Danielle Graham, who’d left them there before going to sleep after all-nighter with her friend
Graham, 40, has been charged with child neglect and animal cruelty
Gary,
Vegas is still in the plans. Probably end of next Summer. I’ve been watching the prices really closely out there. They actually seem to be taking a bit of a haircut already, but it’s only been a bang trim and most of it occurred earlier in the year. I am definitely seeing more incentives offered to buyers and quite frankly, there is a lot more space for future construction unlike here.
I am concerned about a housing correction, but I don’t think it will be too bad because of the scenarios that exist. Though, as a percentage, you would think my GR home would lose more value than a potential LV home I would be purchasing, but I am banking on the specialness of GR and it’s proximity to unicorns and Montclair.
So focusing on RE around here. Fed stops raising rates, I see housing unchanged. No one with a 3% mortgage is trading it in for a 7% mortgage. Fed cuts rates, the number of sales increase, but the pant up demand will limit the price drop from impacting the larger inventory availability. If inflation heats up and FED keeps raising rates, nothing changes with houses. There are almost no sales, but the few that do occur will continue to be at current inflated prices as there will always be bidding wars on low inventory regardless of mortgage rates. And the rich don’t need mortgages. I know, I don’t need one ever again.
In regards to LV real estate, I would bet a lot more buyers stretched into their overpriced homes than here. So I would expect their market to perform more poorly than here in the case of a housing correction.
Housing moves slowly. There is no doubt going to be a period of stock market euphoria once it becomes certain the FED is done with raising rates. It will be important to take a lot of profits when the so-called experts say this bull will have legs. In the long term (10-20 years) it will. In the shorter term (next 5 years) I expect there to buy a bit more volatility due to the market uncertainty and political instability.
Never go to this s hole usually, my kid asked me for a mac and cheese, I got it for her but was stunned at the price. Apparently I’m not the only one.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Panera/comments/16hydb3/why_is_a_small_mac_cheese_8_dollars/
If I were moving to LV I would buy the largest plot of land I could afford, a used excavator and dump truck.
I would then proceed to make the largest reservoir I could in order to store rainwater.
There are only two stocks down today from the 30 or so I track regularly.
Nates and Ginko.
In other news, first recall on my CX90. Time to test out some dealers service department. Will check out Lodi on Monday. Wayne’s has no appointment through October. I can’t wait to take advantage of my lifetime of free oil changes there.
I know they recently had a “flood” there. Most of that water is gone now.
For you Lib:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dral93gmVkM&t=5s
Yes, my shorts are paying.
Will short it down and then buy the chit out of it. Followed this stock long enough to know how it swings.
Libturd says:
September 14, 2023 at 12:55 pm
There are only two stocks down today from the 30 or so I track regularly.
Nates and Ginko.
Crude at 90…is this bullish? Should help hurt corporate earnings.
No taxes for us, pay up children. Oh, and buy our overpriced houses too. BTW, we get the best mortgage rates there are as well, and discounts at gyms, etc:
Proud to stand with the members of PBA local 600 in Woodbridge, Middlesex County today.
We’re gonna stop taxing first responder pensions, implement COLA so it’s fair to all retired LEOs, lower RE taxes by changing school funding and restructuring teacher pensions.
We are going to make our streets safe again by ending bail reform, empowering prosecutors and filling our prisons back to expected levels to reduce crime.
A message to Teachers from your local PBA:
FFFFFFFFFFFFFF UUUUUUUUUUUUUU
lower RE taxes by changing school funding and restructuring teacher pensions.
You are going to help the cops by attacking the teachers?
Why do teachers have to sacrifice for the cops? They out earned us their entire career! Glad you have 0 shot at winning! Lol
https://twitter.com/BillSpadea/status/1701777917397676135
Cops want teachers to quit so they have more degenerate youth to shoot at when they run from the PoPo over a bag of weed.
lmao…this was great.
I seriously would hate to be an officer. Simpsons nailed it with the cops. Lmao.
Phoenix says:
September 14, 2023 at 1:39 pm
Cops want teachers to quit so they have more degenerate youth to shoot at when they run from the PoPo over a bag of weed.
Gp
post the link. I like a good laugh.
but it’s only been a bang trim…
Listen, any bang trim… ahh… forget it. ;)
Phoenix,
Some of the critiques are true. The big one, that you have to take the engine out to do any work, is patently false. As for the mini-hybrid, how else were they going to get 28 MPG in a three row SUV with a straight 6 RWD turbo? So far, we are super happy. A nice thing with Mazda (being that they are so small), is that they are pretty good about taking in lemons, as their reliability has been top notch in the past two decades. If this car ends up being a POS, we’ll sue. I highly doubt it will. It feels like it is built like a tank. All new cars will have a lot of recalls btw.
Lib: Rich people never need mortgages, really rich people, but there are people out there now buying modest houses in typical middle class towns, and paying huge prices, most I would say need mortgages. It’s a big monthly payment for years and years. I don’t know how it continues.
3b,
The mortgage is on top of the $1,000 per month car payment.
Fast: Yes, and for some 2 car payments, and student loan payments start for some again in October. I just don’t understand it, but we are special here.
Disney in talks to sell ABC.
“Johnson & Johnson is getting rid of its script logo after more than 130 years”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/johnson-johnson-getting-rid-script-140010613.html
Why? Fucking why?
Ocean County is full of NNJ retirees that still want to stay in Jersey to be near family. The sticker price on places is lateral, but the property taxes a substantially lower. There are condos everywhere, and a good number of them are gated.
Also, the advent of work from home has created extra days on the weekend. So for the second home people, there is heavy GSP traffic on Thursday nights and Mondays.
Also, take a look around exit 89 and Rte 70. It has every damned thing you could possibly imagine in a chain store.
Fast Eddie says:
September 14, 2023 at 12:16 pm
But why is OC on the list? You’re 80 miles from NYC and 70 miles from Philly. It’s in the middle of nowhere. Once you hit the Monmouth Cty line it’s like going from Dorothy’s farm to the merry old land of OZ. Monmouth Cty. is beautiful all around. Ocean Cty. is scrub pines and route 9 forever.
Also, take a look around exit 89 and Rte 70. It has every damned thing you could possibly imagine in a chain store.
I’m well aware of it. That’s the extent of Ocean County’s culture… Jersey Mike’s, Wawa and Leisure Village East, West, North and South.
Ocean County also has Lakewood, and it’s spreading. Resistance is futile. Brick(tucky) and Jackson are slowly being overrun, north side of Toms River is done. Got bought out by the Brooklyn price.
So far southern Monmouth County hasn’t seen the influx, but I don’t know for how long. Hopefully I can time it so I can get my kids out of high school and get my Brooklyn price, four years.
Second homes along the shore in Pt. Pleasant Lavallette, Ortley etc have really gone up in price for the cant quite afford Bayhead and Mantaloking crowd since 2020. Others just flat moved down here from up North. Sold there crap shack full of Rheingolds and cabbage and bought something down here. Brick and Toms River around the bay for the second home boating crowd as well. Manasquan and Brielle as well, although they are Monmouth.
Brick traffic is terrible, Lakewood traffic is hell on earth.
“I would then proceed to make the largest reservoir I could in order to store rainwater.”
Check the laws re water rights first!
In some places out west, you do not have the right to harvest the rain that falls on your property- the rain actually belongs to whoever has water rights for the local waterway that the rainwater normally drains into.
Even something like a rain barrel connected to your down spout is illegal.
And a rather large hospital too.
The traffic used to build at 83 going south. Now it builds closer to mile 90. Then it all evaporates at 80.
Communism:
Even something like a rain barrel connected to your down spout is illegal.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
LIB
Some of the critiques are true. The big one, that you have to take the engine out to do any work, is patently false.
Well, not any work. But it reminds me of the Mazda/Ford Ranger with the v6 that you needed to pull the engine for a timing chain.
Hey, that chain may last 250K if the tensioners hold up.
I think it’s a good car, but that guy is a really good mechanic so I don’t tend to ignore him- he thinks its a good car, just expensive to repair down the road. Who knows if we will even be alive when that chain jumps a tooth?
Time to move over, boomer. Out to pasture with you and your logo, the kiddies are taking over:🤣🤣
Fast Eddie says:
September 14, 2023 at 3:38 pm
“Johnson & Johnson is getting rid of its script logo after more than 130 years”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/johnson-johnson-getting-rid-script-140010613.html
Why? Fucking why?
Those Lakewood Yeshivas opened in 1943 long before the goyim even built the Garden State Parkway and built up the beach towns. Heck Lakewood may even be the shaitel machers capitol of the world.
They don’t F around when it comes to this stuff.
https://www.tiktok.com/@refinery29/video/7124795487684807982?lang=en
3b says:
September 14, 2023 at 2:56 pm
Lib: Rich people never need mortgages, really rich people, but there are people out there now buying modest houses in typical middle class towns, and paying huge prices, most I would say need mortgages. It’s a big monthly payment for years and years. I don’t know how it continues.
Here is the answer:
https://youtu.be/RRh0QiXyZSk?t=18
Don’t watch this before you eat dinner, you have been warned. Oh no PoPo.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/16ikeum/deputy_taze_running_suspect_in_the_highway/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
What is the cheating/divorce rate? They may be on to something.
Juice Box says:
September 14, 2023 at 5:44 pm
Those Lakewood Yeshivas opened in 1943 long before the goyim even built the Garden State Parkway and built up the beach towns. Heck Lakewood may even be the shaitel machers capitol of the world.
They don’t F around when it comes to this stuff.
https://www.tiktok.com/@refinery29/video/7124795487684807982?lang=en
Mark Zuckerberg has a mortgage, rate of 1.05% with an ARM. From Silicon Valley Bank too. He can deduct some of the interest up to the conforming amount like $750,000.
Nobody turns down free money even the Billionaires. Just ask the Donald.
And Blame Congress for all of it….I could go on and on but none of this nonsense would be around if they could actually give two craps.. They never will there is simply too much money, power and fame when you join the Beltway bunch.
Phoenix – Can you dance? You need to be able to throwdown…..
https://www.tiktok.com/discover/jewish-dancing-meme?lang=en
I forgot to mention the women are in the other room……
Phoenix – 10 percent
But if you cannot earn and produce enough swimmers to have a bakers dozen they forget about it..
“Mark Zuckerberg has a mortgage, rate of 1.05% with an ARM. From Silicon Valley Bank too. He can deduct some of the interest up to the conforming amount like $750,000.
Nobody turns down free money even the Billionaires. Just ask the Donald.
And Blame Congress for all of it….I could go on and on but none of this nonsense would be around if they could actually give two craps.. They never will there is simply too much money, power and fame when you join the Beltway bunch.”
Don’t blame congress- they are just channeling the desires of their voters.
And what is the biggest voting block in the country? Homeowners.
You know, people with a house in the burbs and a couple of kids in the school system who bitch about their property taxes (which don’t even come close to paying for the services they use (schools)) and then fight like hell to stop any new housing in their towns.
Fab – Hope all is going well with the search!
I am officially as of today onto the next round, but I am still a bum. The next interview is a C-suite from SLC… I will be sure to mention how much I miss freshies at the Canyons Ninety Nine…No political talk for sure even though ole Mitt is retiring.
I am going to need prayers if you believe or not, as getting old is what it is…..we are all less desirable….
Trying to gain a beachhead in Colts Neck. Rabbi bought the mansion and acreage on Five Points just south of the high school. I think it is where the Kushner hedgemony stuff got started.
Hughesrep says:
September 14, 2023 at 4:39 pm
So far southern Monmouth County hasn’t seen the influx, but I don’t know for how long. Hopefully I can time it so I can get my kids out of high school and get my Brooklyn price, four years.
OC1 – fair enough
If you are going to light a torch and chase frankenstein you won’t find him as he does not live in the burbs.I am no Tom Morello just a guy from the suburbs, and always happy to chat.
Chi – Can you hit a golf ball a Metedeconk?
Lakewood group just bought the property my golf club sits on. They have a 10 year lease to operate as a club, but we will see. Property sits in part of the Pinelands Commission, but who knows.
For the right price, even Metedeconk is not immune. Although it would be a shame to lose that place, best practice facility around. Matthew Fitzpatrick joined this year over there.
F religious extremists.
The Bond Market Has Never Sounded Recession Alarms for This Long
10-year yield has been below 3-month rate for 212 trading days
The US bond market hasn’t flashed recession warnings so consistently for so long in at least six decades.
For 212 straight trading days, no matter what the indicators have said, the Treasury market has delivered what is widely understood as a starkly different message: The economy is veering toward a contraction, since 10-year yields have held below 3-month ones.
Such an inversion telegraphed the last eight recessions. And on Thursday, the market surpassed the 1980 record to hold that way for the longest consecutive daily stretch since Bloomberg’s records begin in 1962. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I haven’t seen a single person post a chart of the VIX in 4 months.
What are you implying??? Bwahahahaha.
Because the VIX is clearly being manipulated. Everyone and their mother worth their salt, has abandoned it.
We are only a few hundred ($SPX) away from ATH, which this time last year we all agreed, to a person, was the most absurd valuation in the history of markets (4800-ish). Yet here we are, yet again. But this time, with (relatively) high rates, employment declining, and a large swath of people running out of money, the consensus is we go higher, to ATH and beyond.
What a time to be alive.
Naah, not gonna dance like that, or be the mayor of this town either:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/16ijhw6/village_of_spring_valley_new_york_mayor_alan_simon/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Phoenix
I first thought that was a copy of The Office.