Hike or Stay?

From the NYT:

Fed Creeps Toward Next Phase in Its Fight Against Inflation

Federal Reserve officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Wednesday, buying themselves more time to assess whether borrowing costs are high enough to weigh down the economy and wrestle inflation under control.

But investors are likely to focus less on what policymakers do on Wednesday — and more on what they say about the future. Wall Street will closely watch whether Fed policymakers still expect to make another interest rate increase before the end of the year or whether they are edging closer to the next phase in their fight against rapid inflation.

Central bankers have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in 22 years. By making it more expensive to borrow to buy a house or expand a business, they are trying to slow demand across the economy, making it harder for companies to charge more without losing customers and slowing price increases.

Officials predicted in their last quarterly economic forecast — released in June — that they were likely to make one more rate increase before the end of 2023. They have kept that possibility alive throughout the summer even as inflation has begun to fade meaningfully. But key policymakers have sounded less intent on making another move in recent weeks.

The Fed’s chair, Jerome H. Powell, had suggested in June that further adjustment was “likely.” More recently, including during a closely watched speech in August, he said policymakers could nudge rates up “if appropriate.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

119 Responses to Hike or Stay?

  1. dentss@yahoo.com says:

    First

  2. Juice Box says:

    Hike!

    Core CPI is 4.3%. We ain’t there yet.

  3. Juice Box says:

    Inflation isn’t dead or 2%. Remember it was said inflation was transitory and was caused by supply chain issues. Now we are seeing the opposite. Slowed price growth is coming from increased supply. This means it is not decreased demand.

    So does the Fed need to continue to raise rates to create a big drop in demand caused by higher unemployment? Hard to say. Consumers are running out of savings and credit now and so demand should soften quite a bit if you no longer are going to just charge it. A bad Christmas season may just be enough to do it, as we already know housing is dead for now.

  4. Juice Box says:

    All hail the AI overlords…The end of the financial advisor is nigh.

    Morgan Stanley has officially kicked off the generative AI era on Wall Street.

    The bank plans to announce Monday that the assistant it created with OpenAI’s latest generative AI software is “fully live” for all financial advisors and their support staff, according to a memo obtained by CNBC.

    “Financial advisors will always be the center of Morgan Stanley wealth management’s universe,” Morgan Stanley co-President Andy Saperstein said in the memo. “We also believe that generative AI will revolutionize client interactions, bring new efficiencies to advisor practices, and ultimately help free up time to do what you do best: serve your clients.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/18/morgan-stanley-chatgpt-financial-advisors.html

  5. Juice Box says:

    Stellantis aka Chrysler getting out of Dodge?

    Closing their world headquarters in Detroit and shutting 18 other facilities?

    “The 18 potential closures were part of a Thursday night proposal by Stellantis to the union, which began to launch targeted strikes against the Detroit automakers after contracts expired later at 11:59 p.m.”

    Again WFH for the 17,000 white collar employees and switching to an Amazon distribution model for parts etc.

  6. grim says:

    Sorry, why is any of that part of the negotiation with the union?

  7. Phoenix says:

    As the workers lose their jobs, the rich lose their minds:

    New England Patriots season ticket holder, 53, is ‘beaten to death in the stands at Gillette Stadium by Miami Dolphins fans’ – as cops launch investigation

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    …as we already know housing is dead for now.

    Not here. Lines forming hours before an open house, two house tour guides needed to keep things orderly… best and final by EOD. The asking price in negligible, the parties will up the ante and refuse to get outbid. If it’s more than a week on the market, then there’s something structural flawed, it’s certainly not because of the price.

  9. Phoenix says:

    My favorite is still the NJ politician who wants to get rid of the teachers union and give the money to the police union.

    Hi Lar E Us.

  10. Phoenix says:

    Well, in her defense, dead children are bad for business. And childcare doesn’t pay enough to live in Saddle River.

    Hey, had the kid not snorted the stuff, she may have been able to buy a house next to Fast Eddie:

    NYC day care owner ‘called two drug operation accomplices including her husband before finally calling 911’ to report one-year-old who later died from exposure to fentanyl in the closet
    Grei Mendez De Ventura allegedly called two accomplices before phoning 911
    Police sources slammed her for delaying urgent care for Nicholas Feliz Dominici
    Before dialing 911 Ventura called her husband, her husband’s cousin and a friend

  11. Juice Box says:

    Grim – It’s in the contract….”Stellantis is required to include potential closures or sales of any location where a UAW member works, a company source said”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/18/uaw-strike-stellantis-could-close-18-facilities-under-deal.html#:~:text=The%2018%20potential%20closures%20were,the%20UAW%20reconvened%20Monday%20morning.

  12. Phoenix says:

    Anyone got her number? I’m not a Democrat.

    Lauren Boebert on Monday said she would not be going on another date with the man she was filmed fondling during a performance of Beetlejuice last week, after it emerged he was a Democrat

  13. Phoenix says:

    I hope every one of the laid off UAW workers has at least two guns.

  14. Phoenix says:

    Nice car. These guys have great taste:

    Shocking moment two carjackers speed off in Connecticut man’s Aston Martin after following him home and violently beating him in his garage
    Footage shows the victim trying to fight off the pair at his home in Westport, CT
    The two thugs overpower him, snatch the keys from his hands and force him out
    The attackers then jump into the car and later race off, leaving him with injuries

  15. Phoenix says:

    Does Bobby Axelrod approve?

    Morgan Stanley kicks off generative AI era on Wall Street with assistant for financial advisors

  16. Phoenix says:

    LW,
    A slight modification to an excellent comment from you.

    ‘Patriotism’ is chimeric construct in a corrupt system. Process that, and walk

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    …even as inflation has begun to fade meaningfully.

    Inflation is fading meaningfully… hmmm.

    Translation: You’re bleeding to death more slowly now because you have a mere pint or two left in your system.

  18. crushednjmillenial says:

    Serious question . . . why don’t the Big 3 automakers outsource the plants to Mexico and other parts of Latin America?

  19. crushednjmillenial says:

    9,400 migrants enter US in single day. In May, there was a record-setting week of 10k+ per day.

  20. BRT says:

    One for you. Howard on Boebert.

    I’m not going to defend it, but the fact that Howard thinks he has some moral compass here is laughable.

  21. Phoenix says:

    Howard wasn’t a hypocrite. Howard was a sex fiend.

    Boebert is a hypocrite. Family values, religion, marriage, all of that crap. Just admit you are a pig and not a liar. How hard is it to tell the truth? #believeallwomen my azz.

    BRT says:
    September 19, 2023 at 8:43 am
    One for you. Howard on Boebert.

    I’m not going to defend it, but the fact that Howard thinks he has some moral compass here is laughable.

  22. Old realtor says:

    I showed this house in July. GLA 1508 located on a main road. Last sold in 8/18 for $599,000. Listed 7/31/23 for $699,000. Closed 9/18/23 for $950,000.

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/72-Rock-Rd_Glen-Rock_NJ_07452_M69881-34583

  23. Chicago says:

    Ten 435

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    Old Realtor,

    Insane. Just insane.

  25. Juice Box says:

    Is the UAW going to unionize robots?

    The problem for UAW isn’t TESLA but the idea of the electric car, and well modernizing the manufacturing of the parts themselves. Much fewer parts and well less factories are needed for a Tesla because of advances in manufacturing.

    TESLA has the most productive factory in the USA. 8,550 cars a week out of Fremont CA. Way more than any of the other companies. The reason being? Use of Robots and large presses to die cast the aluminum parts into much larger pieces have cut down even the use of hundreds of robots!

    They are even trying to stamp the entire underbody in one piece now. Something that was previously 400 parts. They have it down to about 1/2 the underbody now. Giga Press program made by Idra out of Italy. One press can make 1,000 castings per day, fully automated. These parts used to take 2 months previously to make.

  26. 3b says:

    Old: This is insanity. How is the Fall market shaping up ? You had mentioned at one point your belief that we were at the blow off stage, is that still your belief?

  27. Old realtor says:

    The prices being paid at sheriff sales are now greater than or equal to my as is valuation of the properties. Most of these properties are occupied and my value is always predicated on the property being vacant. Irrational exuberance!

  28. Grim says:

    Home Depot in Passaic is insane these days.

    Hundreds of day laborers, multiple hundreds. It’s so bad they brought in Portapotties to accommodate them. You will be swarmed by them. You can’t walk through the store without them tagging along with you trying to help.

  29. Grim says:

    Another big shift is Tesla’s continuous product improvement process. They are constantly making minor updates, changes. Unlike other auto companies that focus on big annual releases, Tesla just makes the same car. Sure, some have updates and refreshes, but looking at the Model 3 – there were far more in-cycle updates than annual.

    Brilliant in that it detaches the manufacturing from any kind of forced annual change. They get far more “mileage” out of a model than most other manufacturers.

    They’ve nearly succeeded in making model year irrelevant. Other companies get punished when they don’t announce big model year changes.

  30. Old realtor says:

    Last week I went to the Bergen sale to bid on this property.
    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/167-Bergenline-Ave-Westwood-NJ-07675/38057573_zpid/

    House is in fair condition, occupied by former owner, 2 houses removed from an industrial section on the east side of town. My as is value $440,000. Sold at sheriff sale for $484,000 including back taxes.

  31. Phoenix says:

    Musk needs to make a GigaHouse.

    One press makes the foundation, floors, roof and walls.

  32. Phoenix says:

    But are they sexy enough to make a Bimmer driver moist?

    Grim says:
    September 19, 2023 at 9:13 am
    Another big shift is Tesla’s continuous product improvement process. They are constantly making minor updates, changes. Unlike other auto companies that focus on big annual releases, Tesla just makes the same car. Sure, some have updates and refreshes, but looking at the Model 3 – there were far more in-cycle updates than annual.

    Brilliant in that it detaches the manufacturing from any kind of forced annual change. They get far more “mileage” out of a model than most other manufacturers.

    They’ve nearly succeeded in making model year irrelevant. Other companies get punished when they don’t announce big model year changes.

  33. Old realtor says:

    As to my opinion of the market…it cannot be sustainable for home values or rentals. Unfortunately I have no predictions on when or how it ends. There have been signs of being at the top of the market but I am not confident of anything at the moment.

  34. Phoenix says:

    Pay a few of them to block security while you walk out the door with thousands of dollars of stolen power tools.

    Grim says:
    September 19, 2023 at 9:09 am
    Home Depot in Passaic is insane these days.

    Hundreds of day laborers, multiple hundreds. It’s so bad they brought in Portapotties to accommodate them. You will be swarmed by them. You can’t walk through the store without them tagging along with you trying to help.

  35. Juice Box says:

    re: day laborers

    My new neighbor closed last month on the 17th. Since then he has installed all new laminate floors on all three levels, modified walls and columns, painted, and refinished the cabinets, and lots of other interior work. He has also done lots of landscaping and just planted two dozen new evergreens. I would say 90% of the labor was just that day laborers. When we had those very hot days early in Sept they were all sleeping in the dirt under the trees to avoid the heat as they waited for the next load of landscaping supplies or whatever to arrive.

    You won’t find Americans working like that. Even the movers were mostly day laborers.

  36. 3b says:

    Old: Thanks. It boggles the mind. We

  37. Bystander says:

    “The same thing – as an addition (not prefab) about 7 years ago, was quoted by a local contractor for $50K!

    In fact, we got the entire kitchen redone with granite and top-line cabinets + a basement remodel for $50K about 12 years ago.

    I am curious if this will ever go down. The pricing is not sustainable”

    DD,

    I saw this from yesterday. Not surprised. I know numerous people who are trying to remodel. My buddy was going to start construction early summer on addition but said architect has not been available for months plus two contractor quotes came back “at a joke level”. I doubt he will do it. 6 houses down, they have had temporary plywood structure for new electric but nothing started in 2 months. My neighbor across street was talking big sh%t about two car garage addition, new kitchen. He said start in August and move out in Sept when things get going in full…but not a thing yet. Reality sets in when you get a quotes. Who is taking these high quotes? Flippers..plain and simple. There is one place moving quickly and it is a flipper up street. In one week, demoed home and dug out for new foundation. This place will be framed completely by Oct. Prices will remain high until Fed destroys housing. I think they know it is a huge problem. I think they raise rates.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    From my late teens to late 20s, I did hellish jobs in hellish conditions. Not comparing, just saying it seems true that the young Americans today just won’t do it.

  39. Phoenix says:

    Is he a registered Republican?

    Juice Box says:
    September 19, 2023 at 9:21 am
    re: day laborers

    My new neighbor closed last month on the 17th. Since then he has installed all new laminate floors on all three levels, modified walls and columns, painted, and refinished the cabinets, and lots of other interior work. He has also done lots of landscaping and just planted two dozen new evergreens. I would say 90% of the labor was just that day laborers. When we had those very hot days early in Sept they were all sleeping in the dirt under the trees to avoid the heat as they waited for the next load of landscaping supplies or whatever to arrive.

    You won’t find Americans working like that. Even the movers were mostly day laborers.

  40. Fast Eddie says:

    Old Realtor,

    Appreciate the front line info, keep it coming.

  41. Phoenix says:

    Why should they? To pay into bankrupt Social Security? To work towards a pension ( what is that?) To pad grandpa’s retirement by giving him 970k for a house that cost 550k three years ago?

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 19, 2023 at 9:28 am
    Juice,

    From my late teens to late 20s, I did hellish jobs in hellish conditions. Not comparing, just saying it seems true that the young Americans today just won’t do it.

  42. Phoenix says:

    Old Realtor,

    Nothing abnormal, it’s just capitalism. Hope you are making your 3%, or more.

  43. Phoenix says:

    Home Depot flash sale. 30 percent off day workers.

    An additional ten percent if you are former military.

  44. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix -re: Republican or Dem???..Living in NJ what difference does it make? In NJ Hillary beat Trump by 500,000 votes in 2016, and Biden had an even wider margin in 2020.

    Anyway new neighbor owns an autobody business. Not sure where the money is coming from perhaps two inheritances or he bought Bitcoin in 2009. No idea really, and I won’t be asking anytime ever.

  45. Phoenix says:

    Juice,

    Matter? Technically right, they are both liars, but Repubs say they hate illegals and use them, and the Dems say they love illegals and use them.

    One group is hypocrites and capitalists, the other are just liars and capitalists.

  46. Phoenix says:

    I hope Musk doesn’t charge for X.

    I like the site.

  47. Old realtor says:

    Phoenix, wish I was making 3% on lots of transactions but that isn’t what I do. At one time I was one of the top REO agents in North Jersey. REO is no longer a profit center for agents. The entire business model has changed. My other business was purchasing houses at sheriff sales and reselling them. Due to market conditions the level of risk involved is too high for my taste. Even though I am still bidding at sales and going through the motions, I feel like I have been forced into retirement.

  48. Phoenix says:

    The police have no duty to protect—– children– nope, rather prosecute them instead- female cop no less, you would think she would care:

    https://tinyurl.com/c57fc4nx

  49. Fast Eddie says:

    The U.S. National Debt has just surpassed $33 trillion.

    Any questions?

  50. ExEx says:

    The national debt on Jan. 19, 2017, the day before Donald Trump was inaugurated president, was $19,944,429,217,107.

    On Jan. 19, 2021, the day before Joe Biden was inaugurated, the debt was: $27,752,835,868,445 — about $7.8 trillion higher.

  51. 3b says:

    Fast: Just keep charging it!!

  52. Phoenix says:

    Mr Biden, can we send another trillion to Ukraine? I like to count in even numbers, and the oligarchs there are starving.

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 19, 2023 at 10:05 am
    The U.S. National Debt has just surpassed $33 trillion.

    Any questions?

  53. Phoenix says:

    Even Musk’s rockets can’t climb as high and fast as the debt Biden racks up.

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    Increase my credit card limit now! Thank G0d we have the Inflated Abduction Act or the debt would be like… $83 trillion!

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    If Covid occurred during the Vegetable’s current administration, can you imagine how much higher the debt would be now?

  56. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,

    Stop crying. You will be dead soon enough, and just like your parents, will never pay back one cent of the debt.

    It’s all good. Have another whiskey.

  57. Juice Box says:

    Biden at UN now speaking. He says we need to keep AI from governing us. Last I checked we cannot elect an AI to office.

  58. Phoenix says:

    As Seinfeld would say, “That’s a shame.”

    Last I checked we cannot elect an AI to office.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yields ripping, Vix at 13

    Dollar soaring, Vix at 13

    Oil skyrocketing, Vix at 13

    Taiwan encircled, Vix at 13

    Republicans shut down the Government, Vix at 13

    Zombie apocalypse, Vix at 13

  60. Chicago says:

    61 comments by 11AM
    If the date was 9/19/2013, the below post would be clot.

    Phoenix says:
    September 19, 2023 at 9:35 am
    Home Depot flash sale. 30 percent off day workers.

    An additional ten percent if you are former military.

  61. Chicago says:

    I love the smell of Raid Defender Flight Insect in the morning. … It smells like victory.

  62. Very Stable Genius says:

    The Road From Mitt Romney to MAGA

    “ So Mitt Romney is retiring from the Senate. This is bad news. As excerpts from a forthcoming biography reveal, Romney is cleareyed about what has happened to his party and, if what he says is true, is a profile in courage compared with colleagues who share his horror but are unwilling to say anything.

    For the basic story of the Republican Party, going back to the 1970s, is this: Advocates of right-wing economic policies, which redistributed income from workers to the wealthy, sought to sell their agenda by exploiting social intolerance and animosity. They had considerable success with this strategy. But eventually the extremists they thought they were using ended up ruling the party.

    For a generation after World War II (which Donald Trump recently said Joe Biden might lead us into) we were still a nation shaped by the legacy of the New Deal. Under Dwight Eisenhower the top marginal tax rate on the highest-income Americans was 91 percent and roughly a third of American workers were unionized.“

  63. Fast Eddie says:

    … sought to sell their agenda by exploiting social intolerance and animosity…

    The democrats certainly own that mantle today. Divide and inflame should be the democrats motto. It’s the roadmap for their version of corporate profits. But instead of stockholders, they have stick holders. Instead of reinvestment, they have redistribution. Instead of research, they have besmirch. Instead of increased earnings, they have increased taxes and instead of resurgence they have insurgence.

  64. leftwing says:

    “Vix at 13…Vix at 13…Vix at 13”

    Dumbfuck.

    It’s 14.70ish.

    And I just harvested some more profit here.

    JFC, you don’t even look at the market anymore huh, just puke up the twidiots?

  65. leftwing says:

    “‘Patriotism’ is chimeric construct in a corrupt system. Process that, and walk.”

    Been preaching this for a couple years now. Red and Blue America,

    “I showed this house in July. GLA 1508 located on a main road. Last sold in 8/18 for $599,000. Listed 7/31/23 for $699,000. Closed 9/18/23 for $950,000.”

    It does have a pre-existing $130k sunporch though, huh? :)

  66. BRT says:

    Well, in her defense, dead children are bad for business. And childcare doesn’t pay enough to live in Saddle River.

    I know a woman in her 70s, no college, started a daycare in the building she worked in NYC in the early 90s. Kept getting asked by the firms to set them up elsewhere. She owns her own Apt in the upper east side and 5 florida condos outright.

  67. BRT says:

    Howard is an insane hypocrite on many issues where his 90s self would be disgusted with who he is today.

  68. BRT says:

    Let’s see what QQQ does here, it’s at a trendline dating back to the start of the year.

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It was making a point, you angry fk.

    Have I not done a good job of calling chit on this blog. I called the top on this blog for the current bear market rally back in first week of august. I pulled the 401k in first week of 2022. Yet, you treat me like chit for providing good insight. Am I perfect, no, but I am pretty damn good at reading the market. Called the housing market on here 10 years out for god’s sake….You go and do that before you chit all over me…because you can’t and you didn’t last decade.

    leftwing says:
    September 19, 2023 at 11:36 am
    “Vix at 13…Vix at 13…Vix at 13”

    Dumbfuck.

    It’s 14.70ish.

    And I just harvested some more profit here.

    JFC, you don’t even look at the market anymore huh, just puke up the twidiots?

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Something is brewing, and I can’t trust the market right now. That’s my position. Lib, disagrees. See what happens.

  71. leftwing says:

    Remind of your point here, is it the same as the last two days of posting? That you have no idea what the VIX is?

    Regarding 10 year housing calls, yes, I did make a ‘call’. I noted during your drivel then that ‘forecasting’ something to move up during a timeframe in which it historically moves up 95% of the time is pointless and of zero value.

    And on your ‘brilliant’ sell in 1Q22 you do recall that was after literally everyone on this forum was screaming at you to get out yet for four months you defended top-ticking that ARKK garbage. Then turned your losses, obstinance, and pathological need to be correct into fairy dust ‘profits’ because you didn’t lose more than what you had.

    Please don’t ever operate heavy machinery.

  72. leftwing says:

    And not angry…I just don’t suffer fools gladly.

  73. 3b says:

    Amazon will higher 250k workers this holiday season, a 67 percent increase over last year. Keep on charging!

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No, no, no…you don’t get to do that. I called the exact timeframe 10 years out. I described that supply would be overwhelmed. You don’t get to take a big chit on my amazing call. No, you don’t. You have never ever made a call like that in your life, and most haven’t. I was persistent and never backed down the entire time people were laughing at me. Let that sink in before you take the position below.

    “Regarding 10 year housing calls, yes, I did make a ‘call’. I noted during your drivel then that ‘forecasting’ something to move up during a timeframe in which it historically moves up 95% of the time is pointless and of zero value.”

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Oh, my bad, I was supposed to assume that the Fed would go on a rampage raising rates. Go tell the bond market they should have known better after they got chewed up and spit out.

    “And on your ‘brilliant’ sell in 1Q22 you do recall that was after literally everyone on this forum was screaming at you to get out yet for four months you defended top-ticking that ARKK garbage. Then turned your losses, obstinance, and pathological need to be correct into fairy dust ‘profits’ because you didn’t lose more than what you had.”

  76. Juice Box says:

    Howard says he is cured of his toxic past ways as has had lots of psychotherapy. Yet there aren’t too many 70-year-old men walking around with jet-black hair and a perm/wig or whatever that is. He is the consummate narcissist as always about him, how the NBA players ignore him and how he was upset recently at his own daughter’s wedding because her husband kissed her passionately. I have not listened in years as he lost his shine which was making people laugh.

  77. BRT says:

    Oh, my bad, I was supposed to assume that the Fed would go on a rampage raising rates.

    The fed literally said they were going to raise rates the way they did. You and the rest of the market were hoping it was a bluff.

  78. BRT says:

    When Howard was commenting on Rogan, it was sad on a number of levels.

    First off, Howard fought the FCC and government officials for years to say what he wants. But moreover, Howard used to religiously play other programs complaining about him but referring him to as “the shock jock radio host”, never by name, because they were always afraid to give him publicity. Well, when he had Neil “keep on rocking in a free world” Young on talking about the issue, he wouldn’t refer to Rogan by name. Just kept saying Spotify. And it was clear, Young was prepped to not say his name either. I mean, I stopped listening to Stern shortly after the Sirius move, mostly, once Artie left, but my gosh…he’s literally become everything he hated.

  79. Juice Box says:

    3B – Amazon

    Pre-pandemic they were around 800,000 employees. Now they are about double that 1.5 million but that is down a bit from peak. They have huge churn, keep in mind they do not offer the hourly employees wage increases after three years and there is no upward mobility for them. Turnover rate is 150% mostly the warehouse workers.

    If and when they can have robots do all those warehouse jobs then those folks will be gone too.

  80. leftwing says:

    Dumbfuck….your precious housing ‘call’ was inevitable….THAT is why people were laughing at you…even at the depth of the housing decline in 2Q2012 values were ABOVE what they were ten years prior…..how soon you forget….you were nicknamed ‘Annie’ then, remember? For predicting the sun will come up tomorrow. Wow, you’re a genius. Predicting something that always happens. Do you have a paid newsletter I can sign up to?

    And on the Fed, JFC, just stop burying yourself here….Powell came out in Nov/Dec 21 and signaled he was RAISING rates. The only dolts that didn’t get that long duration assets are negatively impacted by rising rates were you and your demented grandma hero. And you spiraled down together. Where did you buy into that piece of shit, $150? And then torture this forum for months with your (theoretical or actual, to this day no one knows) DCA?

  81. Juice Box says:

    BRT – Funny thing is if he really believed in the vaccine he would not have been hiding in his house for two solid years at his compound in Southampton. Tabloid media made a big deal about him leaving his house 11 months ago when he finally went and ventured into NYC for dinner. He apparently also made anyone coming into his house during lockdown get covid tests and I kid you not wear hazmat suits. He must have be a real winner to live with and work for during covid, even his dog probably had to get a covid shot and wear a mask.

  82. Juice Box says:

    left – why bother? I can imagine he eats alone in the faculty lounge…

    Speaking of eating..I am headed into NYC Friday for a nice steak dinner with some good friends. Dare I risk driving in on a Friday around 4 PM or should I not risk the traffic and take the train? UN has stuff going on but Biden will be gone tomorrow.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Then why was I getting so much chit from you people on this blog? Why? Why did I have to defend myself and question my intelligence? This is a crazy position to take below. It really is. Yea, everyone knew housing would blow up in 2020….right.

    leftwing says:
    September 19, 2023 at 2:08 pm
    Dumbfuck….your precious housing ‘call’ was inevitable….THAT is why people were laughing at you…even at the depth of the housing decline in 2Q2012 values were ABOVE what they were ten years prior

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    BRT,

    It is what it is. No one saw these hikes coming. They knew hikes would come, but not this fast or hard….facts.

  85. leftwing says:

    Slow day Juice. No opinion on Howard. Shed near term stuff in portfolio, everyone waiting on Fed tomorrow. May screw around with CART here at these levels for a quick intra-day bump…36 handle not bad…

  86. leftwing says:

    In. Short leash. Out at 36.63/36.53.

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you were a chill individual, you wouldn’t defend Lefty attacking me for making an amazing call.

    Also, his position is bs when it comes to the VIX. Sure, it’s normal that it has been hanging around 13 through all this turmoil. Move along, nothing to see here.

    Juice Box says:
    September 19, 2023 at 2:17 pm
    left – why bother? I can imagine he eats alone in the faculty lounge…

  88. Juice Box says:

    I am not chill, I am ice cold. I have defended you many times but there is a line between sanity and madness one should not cross. Madness in this case is to disagree with the way a financial benchmark like an index is calculated.

    So let’s play a game. How would one actually manipulate S&P 500 Index calls and puts? Do you think the man behind the curtain is doing it? Who else has deep enough pockets?

    Do you see a pattern here? These are the largest traded options SPX call and puts, millions a day.

    https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/options?expiration=2023-09-19-w

    Again to be clear if you think it’s all rigged then don’t play the game as you will only continue to question your own sanity for doing so and some of us may even call you out on it.

  89. BRT says:

    It is what it is. No one saw these hikes coming. They knew hikes would come, but not this fast or hard….facts.

    When you proposed buying ARK at the tippy top of its chart, we all told you it was a bad idea as interest rates would rise hurting the entire portfolio. We saw it. You weren’t blindsided. You had your fingers in your ear and you were tuning us out.

  90. 3b says:

    Juice: It is a big increase in hiring for Amazon from last holiday season. I guess they are expecting a good season.

  91. BRT says:

    Howard was always a germaphobe. But, it becomes a problem when it ruins the persons life. With him, it obviously has. But the only people he should be mad at are himself and the people who brainwashed him into believing he’s at risk.

  92. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    Banks are handing out credit cards like pamphlets on a NYC street corner. You can never have too much credit to exploit. Six digits can take you pretty far. Let it ride!!

  93. Juice Box says:

    3b – They are hiring so many because too many have quit or well fired. I never see the same driver twice.

  94. 3b says:

    Fast: Get approved in as little as one minute! Don’t deny yourself!

  95. 3b says:

    Juice: That makes sense.

  96. Libturd says:

    I’ve been listening to Howard Stern religiously since I was in 3rd grade. I even recall the bus drivers used to listen to him on our ride home from elementary school when he was doing the afternoon drive shift at WNBC. It’s funny. I distinctly remember him constantly repeating the call letters WNBC, WNBC, WNNNNNNNNBC and then missing the post on the the then super popular Floyd release, the Wall.

    To be honest with you all, at the risk of sounding like less of a man, I absolutely hated most of the K-Rock years. Too much stripper bullshit and too much ego. Where Stern always shined was in his “bits.” It’s where he started with the King Schmaltz Flour Hour at BC and his love of theater and variety shows always showed through his tough-guy persona. Heck, the news with Robin was probably the highlight of the show for me for most of his FM years. Not only did it present an honest look at the insanity that is the world today, but what was even crazier was knowing that a very large swath of the American populace got their news from there as well. Most likely, it was their only news source. They still cover topical events, but I liked the news hour much better.

    It’s interesting. Growing up my dad loved Imus. I couldn’t stand him. Not because I aligned with Howard, but more I just felt he was awfully boring and not that terribly funny at all. But my dad really loved him. He, of course, couldn’t stand Howard. Perhaps, just listening to anyone for a long time makes it more likely that you will like them?

    Getting back to the satellite Howard. He is definitely a pussified version of his old self. A lot of people hate that. I, on the other hand, feel he has actually matured. Much of the crap I hated, the attacking of other DJs, the strippers, his massive ego, he has quit. His interviews now are absolutely wonderful and dare I say, he may be the best interviewer ever. His research of the guest is just incredible and the amount of homework he puts into is obvious. So much so that most guests are taken by surprise due to it. Where the show has taken a turn for the worse is in his political rants. The Trump impersonator is amazing and funny, but not really political. It’s those opinionated rants where he is alienating a lot of listeners. The one wonk Flab Max posted last night is a perfect example. Boebert is a known entity. Like the loudmouth AOC, voters either hate these fakes or love them. The fact Boebert acted like a complete moron is hardly newsworthy. Nor would it be newsworthy if AOC called for the beheading of Nancy Pelosi. It’s really enough to just briefly mention what occurred and move on. Let MSNBC, CNN, ESPN, the morning shows, the night shows and every podcast focus on it. Howard adds nothing to it. Now Tan Mom running for Senate. That’s a Howard story. At this point in his career, Howard is on the air about ten hours a week. He is no longer a shock jock. He is at best, another nighttime talk-show host and at worst, Maury Povich. I’m cool with that. IMO, the show is much more cerebral than it ever has been. I suppose, I’ve simply matured with him.

  97. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    On the germaphobe front, it’s incredibly frustrating. He is very intelligent and well read. His inability to get past COVID is simply embarrassing. Dude has to be worth a billion dollars and he is afraid to leave his apartment.

    Even worse, he is the cheapest person alive. Really. His only real extravagance is a urinal in his bathroom. Sure he is a few homes and a multi floor residence in Manhattan, but come on now. He should have yachts and private jets. Nearly everyone who works on his show is grossly underpaid and always has been. He still has mostly interns doing the vast majority of the work. And he complains of the value of Sirius stock like there is no tomorrow. Besides Robin and the Producer Gary, I doubt a single person is even making 6 figures on the show. And Howard doesn’t allow the underlings to do anything on their own to raise money that could somehow be connected to the show. He is so so so cheap. Like his germophobia his cheapness is a mental illness.

  98. ExEx says:

    Howard is as appealing as a fart in an elevator.

    BaBa booooey

  99. ExEx says:

    A cozy place:

    https://nypost.com/2023/09/19/nyc-area-houseboat-lists-for-
    Currently anchored at a marina close to the sandy shores of Rockaway Beach in Queens, the James Franco is just an hour’s drive away from Manhattan.

    It’s the best of both worlds: the tranquility of waterfront living with the convenience of city life within reach.

    Step aboard this vessel, and you’ll be greeted by an eclectic interior that’s nothing short of nautical nirvana.

  100. BRT says:

    I listened to Howard for the interviews and the news in the late 90s early 2000s. The stripper stuff was just stupid and I’d turn on other music stations whenever he did that. I thought his Sept 11 broadcast was legendary. Artie and Gilbert were my favorites. There were times I needed to pull over because I was laughing too much.

  101. Libturd says:

    That still happens to me on occasion and yes Gilbert was brilliant. Even the joke that got him canned from the AFLAC gig was hilarious. Artie too, but what a drug addicted mess he became. He made such a fool of himself when he got drunk during one of the on-air parties.

    Not for nothing, it made driving in traffic so much less irritating.

  102. Very Stable Genius says:

    Back in the day nobody made me laugh. But I’d turn k rock early monday mornings and within a few minutes couldn’t stop laughing. Surprised he got divorced, but he’s a workaholic

  103. Very Stable Genius says:

    Wasn’t Jackie making $300k when he left

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What I am saying is that a few hands move the market. When they want to pull the rug out, they do. When they want to drive it up, they do. For whatever reason, they have been holding volatility down in the market….maybe to suck in whatever bulls they could, and get a little higher price on the exit, I don’t know…but this chit is manipulated right now. Low volume says so. You just had a record amount of green days in a row in the middle of the summer. Perfectly normal. Not manipulated at all. Of course. Dumb me.

    Juice Box says:
    September 19, 2023 at 2:57 pm
    I am not chill, I am ice cold. I have defended you many times but there is a line between sanity and madness one should not cross. Madness in this case is to disagree with the way a financial benchmark like an index is calculated.

    So let’s play a game. How would one actually manipulate S&P 500 Index calls and puts? Do you think the man behind the curtain is doing it? Who else has deep enough pockets?

    Do you see a pattern here? These are the largest traded options SPX call and puts, millions a day.

    https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/options?expiration=2023-09-19-w

    Again to be clear if you think it’s all rigged then don’t play the game as you will only continue to question your own sanity for doing so and some of us may even call you out on it.

  105. 3b says:

    It’s been a while since we have had over 100 comments.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I have said I was wrong, took the L, and owned it. Learned a lot about liquidity because of it, and today i am a better investor because of it. That’s how you take an L and win.

    BRT says:
    September 19, 2023 at 3:04 pm
    It is what it is. No one saw these hikes coming. They knew hikes would come, but not this fast or hard….facts.

    When you proposed buying ARK at the tippy top of its chart, we all told you it was a bad idea as interest rates would rise hurting the entire portfolio. We saw it. You weren’t blindsided. You had your fingers in your ear and you were tuning us out.

  107. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    You’re a speculator, not an investor.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice,

    As to why play a rigged game, why not? When you go to a casino, you know it’s rigged against you, but that doesn’t mean you don’t try and find an edge? No?

    Aka just because the market is rigged, doesn’t mean you can’t win. It’s not like it’s impossible to overcome, but there is a reason why the majority lose in the stock market. It’s one f’ed up corrupt game.

    Not everyone can win, and they act like passive index funding means everyone can win….yes, as long as there is growth in population and economy. It’s a f’ing ponzi scheme just like every investment. Future generations abandon index investing, then the generations before them become massive bag holders. No one to drive up the price. And you wonder why they push passive index funds/401ks down your throat…they need you to contribute and always hold.

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you play the stock market and don’t realize they know your hand (ken citadel anyone), then stay the f away.

  110. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    Watch Mohnish Pabrai, Charlie Munger, and Warren buffet.

    Read years worth of letters to shareholders for Berkshire Hathaway, Markel Group, Boston Omaha, and Nelnet. You will learn a lot.

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t care what I am, as long as i make money. I am no fool like you guys portray me, I make money.

    I am so early to the game in this. Big money going to made in this sector. WSJ finally waking up to it.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/synthetic-biology-moves-from-the-lab-to-the-marketplace-3f409a87?st=5zcvsqptn0pdekf&reflink=article_copyURL_share

    Hold my beer says:
    September 19, 2023 at 5:45 pm
    Pumps

    You’re a speculator, not an investor.

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hold,

    Buffett always pushing index and diversification to the lemmings…but what did he do? Why doesn’t he follow his own f’ing advice and dissolve Berkshire and put it all in index funds. Fk him.

  113. BRT says:

    Yes. It was pathetic how he collected 100 million on that initial Sirius deal and continued to pay everyone trash. I remember when he loathed Stuttering John for getting paid from Leno after he left. Never understood how he expected them to stay forever. They were relegated to working nights and weekends at club appearances to get by.

  114. Hold my beer says:

    Pumps

    Buffet knows accounting and reads 10ks. That probably puts him ahead of 90% of analysts. I’m convinced most people who write about stocks just look at the rations and have zero understanding of what the numbers actually mean. Buffer knows the masses won’t read 10ks and will buy when prices go up and sell when stocks go down. That’s why he recommends index funds for most people. He also thinks the majority of hedge funds will underperform the index. He thinks volatility is your friend. He’s also returned 15.9% a year since May 1985 while the s & p has done a little over 11%.

    Munger thinks you only need 3 stocks to be diversified if you know how to invest and have the right temperament.

    Pabrai thinks you can be wrong 30-40% of the time with your buys and still beat the market.

    Have you read the 10k for DNA or some of the 10ks for CWs largest picks? If not you are speculating. You also need to read the 10ks of the competition to see how those businesses compare.

  115. Libturd says:

    “but there is a reason why the majority lose in the stock market. ”

    Another patently false statement.

Comments are closed.