From HousingWire:
Fannie Mae’s chief economist: ‘We don’t expect spreads to come down anytime soon’
When mortgage rates blew past the 7% level earlier this year, the securitization market “froze up temporarily,” according to Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at the government-sponsored enterprise Fannie Mae.
“Investors who would buy a mortgage-backed security [MBS], which is backed by mortgages that have a 7% coupon, believe that when the Fed eases interest rates, the people with those 7% mortgages will refi,” Duncan said on Friday during the AIME Fuse 2023, the Association of Independent Mortgage Experts’ conference held in Las Vegas.
Duncan added: “So what you also almost immediately saw was buydowns of interest rates. The market responded within two weeks. The market set the problem and responded with a solution to keep consumers in the game.”
Until it happened again. Duncan said that now the rates have shot up to the 7.5% to 8% range, the same thing is true.
“The question is: Is there a way to encourage investors to continue to buy mortgage-backed securities, which is a major funding mechanism for home purchases and refinancings, with the knowledge that it’s likely that when the Fed gets inflation back, interest rates going to fall, those mortgages will refinance and those mortgage-backed securities will disappear?” Duncan added.
One caveat: “If you’re saying even more extended buydowns, [even] for those [lenders] who have had strong profit margins, the profits at some point are going to be exhausted.”
With fewer buyers in the MBS market, the average coupon yield on 30-year agency MBS was at around 6.4% at the end of September, The Wall Street Journal reported. That was a 1.8 percentage point premium to the 10-year Treasury yield versus a 21st-century average of around one point.
When you add mortgage originators’ profits, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.49% as of Oct. 5th, up 28 basis points from 7.31% in the previous week. At HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, rates were 7.6% on Friday.
According to Duncan, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is still the single biggest holder of MBSs worldwide, with about 21%. Banks and credit unions together own about 29% as a group.
“But the Fed no longer wants to hold them, so they are not buying; they are actually letting them run off,” Duncan said.
“People ask me what the difference is between athletes today and 40 years ago — today everybody wants to talk about their rights and privileges, and 40 years ago we talked about our obligations and responsibilities.” ~ Lou Holtz
40 years ago, the ND coaching gig was considered zenith level and a final career stop. Now, the ND leaves under the cover of night to take 100m from cheating, scandalous, low academic institutions from SEC. In other words, shut up Lou. Boomer coaches have no ethics or “responsibilities” anymore. Don’t expect youth to have it. They see the game and much smarter now.
oh, and first.
Jan 7th 2009. Fed Holdings of MBS.. Exactly Zero… Five months later over 1 Trillion.
Now an entire Generation has since been born and it’s 14 years, 9 months and the Fed is still holding. 2.5 Trillion of MBS…… unwinding it slowly as to not crash the markets. If nobody is selling or refinancing then it will take another 15 years to get it down to zero.
Fed money printed electronically to steal from the younger Generations to keep asset prices higher than the last bubble the older generations created. Thanks Dr. Bernake….Frankenstein’s monster is still alive.
Juice: Yes, that sums it up nicely.
As much as everyone hates the terrorists they should not be shutting down food supplies. It is the UN that feeds the people in Gaza not the state of Israel, they just control the borders land, sea, and air.
There is no fighting right now, the terrorists have retreated and got their hostages which they will trade when Israel empties it’s jails again as has been done in the past.
I think our President should make this point clear, Israel is highly dependent on agricultural and food imports as well as our military assistance they should not be committing additional war crimes by starving the 750,000 people they locked into that cage after they captured it from Egypt during the six day war in 1967.
….not so sure there is no fighting now..or in near future…
Juice. You lost me at the end of 8:18. You can’t view 50 years through the prism of October 2023. I was there in 1990. Things were quite different. Everything you see is because it has to be that way. The only thing that I think is wrongheaded are West Bank settlements. That is asking for trouble.
House a few doors down listed a week ago, 1 open house and it’s off the market.
Flight to quality – Temporary reprieve for mortgage rates?
Chicago – “has to be that way”.
If you founded Acme Widget company when you were there 1990 with a manufacturing plant in Gaza and made the most successful Widget with incredible worldwide demand you would have never been allowed to export it from Gaza. This is true for most products, very little can be made, grown and exported from that little cage on the Mediterranean, the list of exports is short and everything is inspected in a very slow process that spoils food and demand wanes to nothing. Hence their dependence on handouts from the UN.
Very little of anything can be imported too, you know because it has to be that way.
It is a war crime to starve people out. We are talking about food, nothing more or less. It is wrong and should be called out by our leaders at the very least.
Juice: It wasn’t always a cage.
House a few doors down listed a week ago, 1 open house and it’s off the market.
The week on the market is strictly advertising to prepare everyone for their bids. The open house is to give the buyers a dining room table, kitchen table, coffee table, desk or any hard surface to sit at in order to submit their bid. Each buyer is eyeing the other from one room to the next wondering if their bid is in the running. By mid-morning of the next day, you’ll be notified to up your bid as 12 others are bid higher. When asking for the highest bid, you’ll be told to keep bidding and they’ll let you know. Ultimately, the hovel in under contract by 5:00 PM that day. You won’t be the “winner” and you’ll be aghast when you finally learn the hammer price. This is how the process works in the S0cialist Republic of the Great Commune of New Jersey.
Chi – The first intifada began in 1987. The signing of the Oslo Accords which ended it with Clinton, Rabin and Arafat was 1993. Perhaps your trip there was uneventful, as in no gunfire and explosions? Yes we are a long way from those days of any kind of a chance for lasting peace.
It all going to end badly, unsustainable populations with little water and not enough locally grown food. No different really than many of their neighbors like Egypt and Jordan, neither of which could survive without the handouts.
“Allowing these funds to be transferred from restricted Iranian accounts held in the (Republic of Korea) to accounts in Qatar for humanitarian trade is necessary to facilitate the release of these U.S. citizens,” the document said.
White House spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement late on Monday that Blinken, on Sept. 8, had undertaken “a procedural step in an ongoing process to ensure Iranian funds can move from one restricted account to another and remain restricted to humanitarian trade.”
I’m selling a bridge cheap, anyone want to buy it?
Ed – The weapons used over the last few days were smuggled in long before this money was released by South Korea to pay for the oil they purchased on the cheap from Iran.
It is really a cheap political trick. Is Biden to blame for these terrorist attacks? No timelines don’t match up, but let’s use it anyway, cheap points. Now we are steaming in the USS Gerald Ford with Carrier Strike Group 12. You can bet those boys know how to deliver peace and freedom.
Juice,
Ed could rationalize blaming Biden for his bought of diarrhea this morning.
Biden is a tart, but isn’t responsible for everything.
Walgreens pharmacists staging a walkout in-part due to customer bullying!
Seems the aging Boomers are bulling them too much. I have seen it first hand in my pharmacy. Boomer makes a face when there is a line, boomer gets angry when the prescription isn’t ready, boomer gets mad when they find out Medicare part D does not cover ED Meds! Haha…
I’m talking about the statement that the money is restricted to humanitarian trade. Sure it is. And Iran said they’ll use the money as they see fit. As if they had to tell us. But let’s be honest… this attack occurred shortly after this money was released. C’mon.
Juice,
At least I’m not the only one who sees the arrogance of boomers. They voted things for themselves, then voted the same things away from the youth.
Easy to see if you want to, easy to deny it if you put blinders on.
Greed is good.
I’m talking about the statement that the money is restricted to humanitarian trade. Sure it is. And Iran said they’ll use the money as they see fit. As if they had to tell us. But let’s be honest… this attack occurred shortly after this money was released. C’mon.
This attack took months, possibly years to prepare. Money was just released.
“If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.”
Gaza was controlled by Egypt from 1959 to 67. It was never made part of Egypt and the occupants never offered citizenship. Occupants of Gaza were not permitted to seek employment in Egypt. In 1979 when Israel returned the Sinai to Egypt, Egypt was offered Gaza as well. Egypt refused.
For many years residents of Gaza were permitted to work in Israel and movement between Gaza and Israel had only limited restrictions.
“People ask me what the difference is…today everybody wants to talk about their rights and privileges, and 40 years ago we talked about our obligations and responsibilities.”
“What they want is a masters degree, get paid based on it, then have their “work/life balance.” Many just do the minimum needed to get by.”
To my original point…who are the smart ones?
Ed – Big Picture… DOJ and Yellen say they are now going after those folks evading the Oil sanctions.
China is the top buyer now 1.5 million barrels a day from Iran. To escape sanctions it’s rebranded as crude from other countries. There is a Pakistani-Canadian Oil Billionaire middleman about to be renditioned. It’s his ships and his fake paperwork making it happen. We have already gone after the Greek shipping companies.
If that does not work then it may be another blockade Strait of Hormuz etc and every ship inspected.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-tensions-suez-rajan-seizure-a9a4bf6b6616a8502c4eb052bcfef5aa
“…the Fed is still holding. 2.5 Trillion of MBS…… unwinding it slowly as to not crash the markets. If nobody is selling or refinancing then it will take another 15 years to get it down to zero.”
Someone will have to check FRED charts or such but IIRC they had no intention of selling MBSs and the idea was to just let those unwind naturally, which will now of course take even longer with no refis and rates where they are….
“Fed money printed electronically to steal from the younger Generations to keep asset prices higher than the last bubble the older generations created. Thanks Dr. Bernake.”
Seems quaint to recall the ‘helicopter Ben’ debate and getting shouted down by the usual chorus of the ‘just do something’ circus clowns…
LW,
Just wait till you get one that is operating on you, or one of your loved ones, doing the “minimum.”
You might find them to be “smart,” but there are some things money can’t buy- and some screw ups that cannot be undone.
I’m sure you would like a pilot who does the minimum unlike a guy like Sully.
One step closer to WW3
Juice Box says:
October 9, 2023 at 11:11 am
Ed – Big Picture… DOJ and Yellen say they are now going after those folks evading the Oil sanctions.
China is the top buyer now 1.5 million barrels a day from Iran. To escape sanctions it’s rebranded as crude from other countries. There is a Pakistani-Canadian Oil Billionaire middleman about to be renditioned. It’s his ships and his fake paperwork making it happen. We have already gone after the Greek shipping companies.
If that does not work then it may be another blockade Strait of Hormuz etc and every ship inspected.
Phoenix, gave up on that along time ago….around the era of affirmative action and selecting the ‘best and brightest’ based on identity and not capabilities.
Do what you need to protect you and yours…starting with the knowledge in the point you make…
This attack took months, possibly years to prepare. Money was just released.
You’re still missing my point.
LW,
Hard to argue with that logic…
FE,
The middle east is not my broadest area of knowledge. So yeah, I may have missed your point. You can clarify if you so choose.
Left — quaint but really it isn’t that far out……2012 was QE3..long after the debacle of Lehman Bros and Subprime.
Again Frankenstein is alive and well. Fire will not kill him and neither will high interest rates.
Not enough home buying was the reason for QE3 back in 2012, but that was not really the truth. Fed buying pushes up the prices of the bonds and drives down the yields but during that time there is money to be made by the banks in primary/secondary spread.
The only way to lower mortgage rates that keep going up. Buy more bonds, and the GSE MBS is 90% of the market as we know banks will never gain keep the actual mortgages on their balance sheets.
Some scrawny junior executive at a bank will have the same idea again it’s called Lending to make money. They will figure out a way to do it again. It’s only a matter of time for some kind of legislation or man behind the curtain parlor tricks.
Phoenix,
My point is that the $6,000,000,000 will not go towards humanitarian aid. It will go towards nefarious activity.
I heard they haven’t actually released the funds yet.
But at this point Biden would be a fool to do so.
VIX seems awfully calm.
Going to make another call here.
Starting to see some real cracks behind the covers – feeling more and more like recession is imminent.
So now the Neville Biden presidency will be remembered not just for the start of war in Europe, but for the start of war in the middle east as well. Only the most devout Dem stooges like Unstable would consider this a coincidence, but that won’t stop him and the others from ignoring the reality of a world in chaos and hysterically wailing that the 24 election is about stopping the supreme court’s ‘assault’ on women’s bodies — or some other such nonsense.
Juice Box says:
October 9, 2023 at 10:08 am
“Is Biden to blame for these terrorist attacks? No timelines don’t match up, but let’s use it anyway, cheap points.”
Again, you need to be either a committed stooge (which I know you’re not), or willfully obtuse to not see Joe’s feckless fingerprints all over the start of war number two. It’s literally like saying the Dem mayors of Chicago aren’t responsible for the runaway crime there because they didn’t physically attack anyone. Joe is specifically responsible because his energy policies ceded oil pricing power to OPEC+, causing him to ignore Iran’s sanctions violations in the hope that their massive oil sales would keep a lid on gasoline prices. Instead, and as any reasonable person could have predicted, their massive oil sales simply funded more trouble-making. So just as his energy policies funded Putin’s war — by filling his war chest due to super high oil prices — so they did with Iran as well, via their sale of ‘illicit’ oil. Additionally, it is almost certain that some of the military equipment that Joe abandoned during his Afghan retreat, was used during training, or in the actual Hamas assault.
Hard to describe, no single data point, but dozens of smaller, very curious scenarios, the pace of which seems to be accelerating.
2:43 . . .
Here’s my two recession data points:
(1) I see way less single-family home renovations activity (like framing additions or new construction). About a year ago, it was everywhere in my eyes
(2) at my job, i heard from minths from my boss that they barely got applicants for the 2-3 open positions on my team. Lately, they’ve been getting applicants.
On the other hand, with employment being robust, I’m not saying anything needs to be imminent.
2:42 hey stupid did you suffer a recent head injury?
Don’t read much? Or are just dishonest.
This slaughter is Netanyahu’s failure dumbass.
Corrupt and ineffectual just like his pal Trump.
10:53 absolutely. Good point.
WSJ
Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut
Updated Oct. 8, 2023 at 7:32 pm ET
DUBAI—Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.
Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.
Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.
U.S. officials say they haven’t seen evidence of Tehran’s involvement. In an interview with CNN that aired Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship.”
“We don’t have any information at this time to corroborate this account,” said a U.S. official of the meetings.
A European official and an adviser to the Syrian government, however, gave the same account of Iran’s involvement in the lead-up to the attack as the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members.
Asked about the meetings, Mahmoud Mirdawi, a senior Hamas official, said the group planned the attacks on its own. “This is a Palestinian and Hamas decision,” he said.
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Hamas militants breached Israeli checkpoint locations along the border with Gaza, neutralizing Israeli forces, and allowing Hamas to spread into nearby towns. Photo illustration: Annie Zhao
A spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the Islamic Republic stood in support of Gaza’s actions but didn’t direct them.
“The decisions made by the Palestinian resistance are fiercely autonomous and unwaveringly aligned with the legitimate interests of the Palestinian people,” the spokesman said. “We are not involved in Palestine’s response, as it is taken solely by Palestine itself.”
A direct Iranian role would take Tehran’s long-running conflict with Israel out of the shadows, raising the risk of broader conflict in the Middle East. Senior Israeli security officials have pledged to strike at Iran’s leadership if Tehran is found responsible for killing Israelis.
The IRGC’s broader plan is to create a multi-front threat that can strangle Israel from all sides—Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in the north and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, according to the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members and an Iranian official.
At least 700 Israelis are confirmed dead, and Saturday’s assault has punctured the country’s aura of invincibility and left Israelis questioning how their vaunted security forces could let this happen.
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Israel-Hamas War Escalates; Iran Said to Have Helped Plot Attack
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Israel has blamed Iran, saying it is behind the attacks, if indirectly. “We know that there were meetings in Syria and in Lebanon with other leaders of the terror armies that surround Israel so obviously it’s easy to understand that they tried to coordinate. The proxies of Iran in our region, they tried to be coordinated as much as possible with Iran,” Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, said Sunday.
Hamas has publicly acknowledged receiving support from Iran. And on Sunday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi talked to Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh.
Iran has been setting aside other regional conflicts, such as its open feud with Saudi Arabia in Yemen, to devote the IRGC’s foreign resources toward coordinating, financing and arming militias antagonistic to Israel, including Hamas and Hezbollah, the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members said.
The U.S. and Israel have designated Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations.
“We are now free to focus on the Zionist entity,” the Iranian official said. “They are now very isolated.”
The strike was intended to hit Israel while it appeared distracted by internal political divisions over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. It was also aimed at disrupting accelerating U.S.-brokered talks to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel that Iran saw as threatening, the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members said.
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Leading the effort to wrangle Iran’s foreign proxies under a unified command has been Ismail Qaani, the leader of the IRGC’s international military arm. PHOTO: SALAMPIX/ZUMA PRESS
Building on peace deals with Egypt and Jordan, expanding Israeli ties with Gulf Arab states could create a chain of American allies linking three key choke points of global trade—the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab Al Mandeb connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea, said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
“That’s very bad news for Iran,” Ibish said. “If they could do this, the strategic map changes dramatically to Iran’s detriment.”
Leading the effort to wrangle Iran’s foreign proxies under a unified command has been Ismail Qaani, the leader of the IRGC’s international military arm, the Quds Force.
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Qaani launched coordination among several militias surrounding Israel in April during a meeting in Lebanon, The Wall Street Journal has reported, where Hamas began working more closely with other groups such as Hezbollah for the first time.
Around that time, Palestinian groups staged a rare set of limited strikes on Israel from Lebanon and Gaza, under the direction of Iran, said the Iranian official. “It was a roaring success,” the official said.
Iran has long backed Hamas but, as a Sunni Muslim group, it had been an outsider among Tehran’s Shia proxies until recent months, when cooperation among the groups accelerated.
Representatives of these groups have met with Quds Force leaders at least biweekly in Lebanon since August to discuss this weekend’s attack on Israel and what happens next, they said. Qaani has attended some of those meetings along with Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader al-Nakhalah, and Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’s military chief, the militant-group members said.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian attended at least two of the meetings, they said.
“An attack of such scope could only have happened after months of planning and would not have happened without coordination with Iran,” said Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at the University of London. “Hamas, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, does not single-handedly make decisions to engage in war without prior explicit agreement from Iran.”
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The Palestinian and Lebanese militias’ ability to coordinate with Iran will be tested in the coming days as Israel’s response comes into focus.
Egypt, which is trying to mediate in the conflict, has warned Israeli officials that a ground invasion into Gaza would trigger a military response from Hezbollah, opening up a second battlefront, people familiar with the matter said. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire briefly on Sunday.
Hamas has called on Palestinians in the West Bank and Palestinian citizens of Israel to take up arms and join the fight. There have been limited clashes in the West Bank, but no reports of clashes between Arabs and Jews inside Israel, as happened in May 2021 when Israel and Gaza last engaged in extended combat.
The Iranian official said that if Iran were attacked, it would respond with missile strikes on Israel from Lebanon, Yemen and Iran, and send Iranian fighters into Israel from Syria to attack cities in the north and east of Israel.
Iran’s backing of a coordinated group of Arab militias is ominous for Israel. In previous conflicts, the Soviet Union was the ultimate patron of Israel’s Arab enemies and was always able to pressure them to reach some type of accommodation or recognize a red line, said Bernard Hudson, a former counterterrorism chief for the Central Intelligence Agency.
“The Soviets never considered Israel a permanent foe,” he said. “Iran’s leadership clearly does.”
Grim – Recession. Some other anecdotes.
– Lead Times on equipment are shrinking quickly (partly due to increased manufacturing capacity but vendor also indicate more cancellations freeing up the que).
– Cost of money, shifting capital budgets, and price escalations from contractors are killing projects the moment final bids come in. At the very least, requiring significant value engineering to reconcile.
– Increased layoff activity in competitors.
It feels very much like a recession is coming. Weird feeling after 12+ years of growth.
https://nypost.com/2023/10/09/suspended-iran-special-envoy-rob-malley-under-scrutiny-for-hamas-remarks-following-israel-terror-attack/
Only in America
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12610551/Joe-Biden-brother-Frank-naked-selfie-GuysWithiPhones.html
Fear-mongering a recession? Who do you think you are Michel Burry?
Scion Asset Management 13F From June 90% + all in Doom!
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Our Senator Booker was in Israel for the Abraham Accords summit in Tel Aviv where he was scheduled to speak tomorrow. He has chosen to hightail it out of there instead and doesn’t sound very committed to solving the Foreign Relations in the area.
Blasted by the good Rabbi Shmuley on X today.
https://twitter.com/RabbiShmuley/status/1711205377612636383
Maybe Jewish guys aren’t his type
crushed,
I mentioned several friends planning big work. 3 of them have stopped plans. I think the absurdity of contractor pricing killed it. There was a guy down street who was planning 2nd story on cottage but now demo-ing the house and building bigger from scratch. More money in it as I bet they sell it. Demo sign went up last week. The house two doors down had open house that was packed, even with ridiculous price of 1,5m. House would have been 1m 3 years ago. Lots of nice cars on our street checking it out. The dichotomy bw have/have nots has never been wider. You don’t want to be person putting 300k on addition (would have been 175k a few years ago) when rest of house is old. I think the coming bust will crush your investment
NOT THE THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE WE ARE LOOKING FOR
RFK Jr. has just announced an independent run for president
First
Just perfect for the day. SFW:
https://youtu.be/6l6vqPUM_FE?t=4
Grim,
Been on the same page since August. I don’t know when, but something is breaking sooner or later. Writing is on the wall.
Bobby Kennedy Jr. was on FOX this morning. Once again, the guy sounds logical and a voice of reason. He says we need to get corporate money away from both parties, among other things. The thought of seeing a Kennedy as president harkens back to the halcyon days of traditional America.
If consumer spending decreases then GDP will shrink and the economy will fall into a recession. 68% Of GDP folks is consumer spending.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE
Spending is still growing as we go from Cost-Push to Demand-Pull inflation.
Fed is doing it’s best to reduce the money supply. They are losing $100 Billion a year in the overnight markets to keep money from being lent out.
Money supply is shrinking.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
Have the odds of recession increased yes, sure, maybe are the answers you will find from economists but it’s not imminent, it’s still out there on the horizon.
9:27 everything sounds reasonable when you know nothing, I suppose.
Getting money out of politics is now a non-starter. PACs can now accept unlimited contributions from individuals, unions, and corporations as long as they don’t give directly to a candidate. It’s been 13 years since the courts created “super PACs” and now the cost of the presidential election is nearly 4 Billion dollars with the two parties spending about 2 Billion each give or take on the last election.
Even so, it’s still two sides of the same coin. Another party is a better option. Europe has had waves of new parties form over the decades. They have not been stuck in this duopolistic system like the USA for too long. Power corrupts…we need to break it up and distribute the power so the elected representatives actually have to work together, instead of spending most of their time ripping each other to pieces.
Kennedy is offering a common sense approach and a unifying message. He’s not angry and belligerent or absurd. Telling Americans climate change and white supremacy is the biggest threat to our country along with men having babies is insulting to the Production class. His demeanor harkens back to a once strong America. The vegetable and cackling fool are indictors of a nation currently off the rails. We need a president that speaks her/his mind and follows through on ideas that made this country great.
“The thought of seeing a Kennedy as president harkens back to the halcyon days of traditional America.”
JFC man. What drugs are you on?
Sorry to channel my inner Phoenix but go throw some Sinatra on, pull up some Leave It To Beaver, scream at the clouds outside that shit is not the same, and then take a dirt nap saving this generation some entitlement spending and freeing up some housing inventory.
leftwing,
I’m looking for my Sinatra LPs but can’t find them. I’ll have to settle for “The Best of Burt Bacharach” for now to go with my Asti Spumante. Geezus, where’s my pipe! I need to pack some Dunhill and take a few puffs!
“Francis Albert Sinatra & Antonio Carlos Jobim”
This is the way Ed. The best Sinatra album recorded.
Great day in the market for me…out of my VIX and CRWD; my BAC, MS, and RSP from last week or so are flying…only dark lining to a silver cloud is I had some real exposure on a situation where I was good for maybe 4% or so drop but rolled down and out 3/4 of the position as I didn’t want overnight risk to a bunch of camel humping religious zealots…both the old and new position are printing on that one, but the old one much more so….it’s still a 3%+ day for me so far….
Bystander,
I saw Sinatra live at PNC in Holmdel. At 78 years old, the dude still had the pipes. And believe it or not, half the crowd were young lovers. When Sinatra sang ‘Summer Wind’, guys had their arms around their girlfriends and were singing to them. My kid (A Gen Z’er… alas!!) often listens to Sinatra.
Ed- Were you even alive? The 1960s was one of the most tumultuous and divisive decades in entire world history. Cuban Missile Crisis in 62, Kennedy assassinated in 63 then USA really went nuts. False Flag Gulf of Tonkin in 64, and then the decade-long Vietnam War. Civil Rights movement, counter-culture, Hippies, Weather Underground terrorists and Nixon!!
Halcyon my ass.
…then USA really went nuts
Yeah, we were crazy back then!! We had dudes using slide rulers to put men on the moon! WTF were we thinking?! Tales have been told of men and women even using properly-marked bathrooms!
Ed – We might have men on the moon again this decade, and maybe even a brave soul or two on a one-way trip to Mars. Let’s skip the assassinations and any chance of a world-ending nuclear exchange this time. I could do without the hairy hippie women too.
Liberal chicks are crazy. And shaved now.
Gotta watch out for the piercings though….unfortunate accidents can happen.
Started exiting last of my SPY…trade from long ago I ‘boxed’, ie. locked in the returns…only 2% left to realize now with about three months left….8% annualized, and effectively locked so long as she stays above 285, so figured I’d free up some buying power rather than squeeze the last juice.
Back to pretty heavy cash, let’s make some glass bowls in the desert so I can get in substantially down from here.
Gotta watch out for the piercings though….unfortunate accidents can happen.
Details, please.
They do grow up fast these days. Kid on my son’s soccer team had an eyebrow piercing, these are mostly high school freshmen. Game a few weeks back the Ref would not let him play. Coach asked the parents if anyone could remove it. Guess who volunteered? Got it out lickey split…couple of twists and some hand sanitizer and the kid was ready to go. He scored two goals in that game. Great winger who can run through several defenders to take the shot.
Belly button was the #1 piercing for women when I was young, then a nose ring and/or nose stud followed by the tongue and the other more sensitive areas. I had a friend who did the tongue thing. I could and would never do anything like that. I don’t even have a tattoo just never felt the need to do it, as I always had attention more than enough. My dance moves were my expression…
Gotta love this stock market. Drop the 10 year by a little, and it moons! Lmao
The Fed is f/ed, they have to have a hard landing or they will never get rid of inflation.
M&A pipeline for AI running a bit dry?
VR company (bluetooth wearable ring for gaming) rebrands as AI and AMD buys them.
AMD will acquire Nod.AI
“AMD
announced Tuesday it will acquire Nod.AI, an open-source AI software startup, in order to expand the chipmaker’s AI software operations.
Nod.AI, or Nod Labs, builds open-source technologies “for future AI systems,” according to the startup, and it mainly specializes in reinforcement learning, a type of system that “learns” via trial and error.”
BTW their last investor was SBF. Alameda Research…
10:08 anti vaxing and conspiracy theories only unify wackos.
Ex,
Don’t forget he will ban abortion..a real D. He and Tulsi can run as DINO ticket. That is what red hat m ooks want- votes siphoned to help the big Orange 🤡.
Goldman recruiter reaches out and says great fit for compliance product engineering. I ask if any WFH and there is none. 5 days onsite. I decline. Good luck GS. Either Solomon is right and Grim is wrong or vice versa. Time will tell. The lines are drawn now. Shockingly the range was broad and bottom was a joke. Are they going to pay up too for onsite. NYC wage transparency is a joke. How does 125k to 250k help?
My guess is there are a lot of old school libs who are alienated by the new radical authoritarian left. Things like medical choice, censorship, free speech, fair trade, peace that were bedrocks of the hippie movement.
They held their nose and pushed the button for Biden but would choose an alternative if it exists.
“In the last 24 hours:
– Mortgage rates hit +8.09%
– Credit card interest rate hits record high
– Car loan interest rate hits highest since 2001
– Oil prices jump highest in 6 months
– China planning +$137 billion stimulus
– War continues on in Israel
But guess what?
Stocks are up today.
Incredibly resilient market!”
I am not being mean, so don’t take it that way. I am being serious.
They do not want to pay people to work at home, even if they can do the job at home. Workers will never understand why, but bosses do. Would you want to start a company where you pay people and don’t even know who they are? You want to pay 200k to someone to sit at home? Most bosses and business owners are hard workers, they simply will never understand letting working get paid and sitting home. Musk mocks it for a reason. He was the first to step up the plate and call out WFH for what it is….a joke. No, you don’t get to sit home and get paid. Sorry. I don’t care if you get the job done or not, when you are getting paid, you are on company time, not your “quality of life” time. Start a business if you want to work from home.
Bystander says:
October 10, 2023 at 1:54 pm
Goldman recruiter reaches out and says great fit for compliance product engineering. I ask if any WFH and there is none. 5 days onsite. I decline. Good luck GS. Either Solomon is right and Grim is wrong or vice versa. Time will tell. The lines are drawn now. Shockingly the range was broad and bottom was a joke. Are they going to pay up too for onsite. NYC wage transparency is a joke. How does 125k to 250k help?
If I was doing interviews…the minute someone asks for WFH…I move on. Yes, it might be hard to replace in the short-term, due to people still not realizing the dream is over, but in time it will become normal to expect to have to go to work again.
Pumps – You just don’t understand software development, so give it a rest already. You won’t be doing interviews in software development anytime if ever.
These teams today are completely distributed all over the world and have been for a long time. As mentioned by Bystander the Goldman job. They have been offshore for 20 years now, and built a new campus there a few years ago.
These Goldman Sachs Developers in Bengaluru, India are already headed home for the day as people here on the East Coast are starting their work day. Right now in Bengaluru it’s 12:29 AM Tomorrow.
There is little time to work with them directly during the day and don’t get me started on the baloney that goes on with their ethnographic social classification of workers. Governor of California just vetoed a Bill to outlaw it, says it was not needed lol, head in the sand for his donors for sure.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/09/us/california-caste-discrimination-bill-veto/index.html
– Mortgage rates hit +8.09%
– Credit card interest rate hits record high
– Car loan interest rate hits highest since 2001
– Oil prices jump highest in 6 months
– China planning +$137 billion stimulus
Just wait until The Inflation Abduction Act kicks in!!
IMF today soft landing dead ahead, all thanks to the man behind the curtain.
“The IMF indicated that it was likely that central banks could achieve a soft landing, taming inflation while avoiding a recession. The report highlighted the U.S., saying that “projections are increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario, bringing inflation down without a major downturn in activity, especially in the United States” thanks to modest unemployment.”
“The IMF raised its growth estimates for the U.S. to a 2.1% change in 2023 and a 1.5% change in 2024, an improvement from WEO reports released earlier in the year. The estimate increases were credited to “stronger business investment in the second quarter and resilient consumption growth, a reflection of a still-tight labor market.”
The man behind the curtain has only engineered a soft landing once before in 1994-1995 with interest rate increases. I would say part of that on the tail end was due to the boom created by Dot Com that started in 1995.
20% of the workforce was remote before the pandemic if I remember correctly. These were a lot of the good software and IT guys that work better alone, or sales that travel. They are not your avg worker for most companies. The avg worker is going to have to come to work.
Don’t hate the messenger. I was beating this drum back in 2021 when no one wanted to hear it, but I always knew what the truth was.
Juice Box says:
October 10, 2023 at 3:03 pm
Pumps – You just don’t understand software development, so give it a rest already. You won’t be doing interviews in software development anytime if ever.
Lmao…just like they said housing and the economy was fine in 2006/2007. Good luck with that now with the amount of deficit spending needed to keep this economy going in the face of much higher borrowing costs….f’ed!!
Juice Box says:
October 10, 2023 at 3:17 pm
IMF today soft landing dead ahead, all thanks to the man behind the curtain.
“The IMF indicated that it was likely that central banks could achieve a soft landing, taming inflation while avoiding a recession. The report highlighted the U.S., saying that “projections are increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario, bringing inflation down without a major downturn in activity, especially in the United States” thanks to modest unemployment.”
I saw a study suggesting that an increase in the use of the expression “soft landing” in media is a good predictor of future recessions.
3:18 you lost me there mate. Stay in your lane and keep teaching those kids who can’t read so good.
2:21 Biden should step aside, but he won’t.
If Trump doesn’t run they’ll push him to the side.
Because of both Parties, probably time to start brushing up on States’ regulations and requirements for putting candidates on the ballot.
I’d make some odds that this election may very well come down to in which States a certain candidate may or may no be able to be balloted.
Which with the latitude given the Electoral College – notwithstanding liberal shrieks of ‘fake electors’ in 2020 – will make for a very interesting 2024.
You don’t know sh$t dhingus. You think it is easy to fill tech positions for price that banks want to pay. Right now, tons of Indians are all over US. When there is no choice, need someone other you tell them must move to area at some point. That some point never happens and now you need them as hiring is a disaster . You have disparate rules all over place and assuredly GS does as well. You will never get it. This is ball flexing nonsense and they will pay price via tech talent drain. GS still thinks it is special when it is a garbage ‘has been’ now through near shoring and offshoring of all MO, BO and IT roles. Lots of ex GS would not even recognize place anymore
Bystander: Goldman was never the same after they went public. They claimed they still had the ethos and value of those partner days, but simply not true, and not even possible.
Election law was once a boring and limited practice. Now it is a cash cow.
leftwing says:
October 10, 2023 at 3:54 pm
If Trump doesn’t run they’ll push him to the side.
Because of both Parties, probably time to start brushing up on States’ regulations and requirements for putting candidates on the ballot.
I’d make some odds that this election may very well come down to in which States a certain candidate may or may no be able to be balloted.
Which with the latitude given the Electoral College – notwithstanding liberal shrieks of ‘fake electors’ in 2020 – will make for a very interesting 2024.
Schumer in China today. Did he really think that Xi would take sides over the oil producers? China gets oil from Iran and the other OPEC members every day, millions of barrels, you think they give a rats ass?
Why is Biden allowing this off-script crap. This Congressional Member Delegation (CODEL) was for Trade only.
Next you know old Chucky will be committing our children to defending an island that is only 100 miles off the mainland China.
Fuck the Boomers!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KpkUp8U7EE
If Biden steps aside, than it’s Harris. The Dems have boxed themselves in.
Nah, they’re not that stupid.
Bench is not that deep, but Newsom at least. Whitmer, Warnock? Hell, Buttigieg even?
Texan and old line New England freshmen on Harvard campus…
Texan: Pardon me, can you tell me where the library is at?
NE’er: Dear sir, here at Hah-vahd we do not end our sentences in prepositions.
Texan: Fine, can you tell me where the library is at, asshole?
Pumpkin-nip….
“Last month, the data startup Cribl posted a job opening…with an incredibly coveted — and increasingly rare — perk in today’s job market: It was 100% remote…By the end of the process, more than 1,700 candidates had lined up for the job. The hiring manager at Cribl eventually interviewed three applicants before extending an offer to a lucky winner in Ohio. How lucky? The chance of getting picked was 0.06% — 60 times worse than the odds of getting into Harvard…”
https://www.businessinsider.com/remote-wfh-jobs-application-odds-tech-market-rto-2023-9
“They have been offshore for 20 years now” The rest they sent to Utah. Great skiing, no alcohol.
My old job just got posted from a different department. The political bun fight is still going on. I’ll fire in an application and see if it gets any traction.
Left: What do they do about Harris? She won’t go quietly.
They all go quietly eventually. The Party controls who gets primaried, who gets elected, who gets appointed, who stays.
How much have you heard from the Squad recently?
Sit down, shut up, or you’re DOA. Kamala’s not old…young enough at least to not want to be put in the position like some divorced late unemployable 40-something banging a slob like Willie Brown to have a roof over her head. Leaving gracefully sure beats asking for a name to write on a cup while preparing a Trenta.
Bernie – with a following, a shot, and not even an actual D – folded early. As did what, three other candidates the night before Super Tuesday to cement Joe?
The Party feels the need to ditch Biden-Harris, they’ll be ditched.
No alcohol? Fab. I have skied everywhere in Utah. You might have to up your game old man and get around before your knees and hips give out.
BTW – GS self-reporting is 60% right now with their time management system. The tech folks are allowed to do their standups at home aka WFH and report later wherever aka coffee badging. Yes Wall Street are trying to save ass because earnings could be abysmal.
BTW – Next gig for me? Was just told to hang tight by C-Suite. I went scorched earth on another one of their panel interviews last week. A PITA like me is needed and desired and I won’t settle for less. Older and bolder folks in IT. I did steal a line from Grim on AI. It’s anyone’s game. My Hope is I get real creds on AI doing this at a small shop, my bandwidth will be unlimited aka unrestrained and if we get it done it could be legendary.
BTW – Bystander friend of mine from your shop will be off to Italy for a cooking class. So not all is lost.