From CNBC:
September home sales drop to the lowest level since the foreclosure crisis
Sales of previously owned homes dropped 2% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 15.4% lower compared with September 2022.
This is the slowest sales pace since October 2010, during the Great Recession, when the market was in the midst of a foreclosure crisis. As a comparison, just two years ago, when mortgage rates hovered around 3%, home sales were running at a 6.6 million pace. The average rate on the 30-year fixed today is right around 8%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
“As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.”
There were 1.13 million homes for sale at the end of September, down more than 8% from a year ago. Inventory is now at a 3.4-month supply, which is slightly better than last year, but only because sales have dropped so much. Supply is based on the current sales pace.
Adding to higher mortgage rates, the median price of a home sold in September was $394,300, up 2.8% year over year. Roughly 26% of home sold above list price, due to the lack of supply which is resulting in bidding wars.
First-time buyers made up just 27% of sales. Historically, they make up about 40%.
First
The young generations got screwed. Reckless Fed policy over a decade.
Gundlach “Buy a T-Bill” and chill.
The yield on the one-year Treasury bill stood at 5.47% on Oct. 19
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-t-bill-chill-bond-163409486.html
“The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.”
Softening inflation… another term for killing you more slowly. And there’s oodles and oodles of jobs in the $15/hour range, I’m not sure what Larry’s talking about. I’ll conclude by saying that if prices are your problem, then NJ is not your state.
3b, this is true. At the same time, a lot of them screwed themselves even further by insisting to play the victim instead of working harder to get ahead.
“As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.”
I call bullshit.
Consumers keep shopping and traveling and that translated to American Express
AXP
-1.26%
announcing its sixth consecutive quarter of record revenue Friday.
…announcing its sixth consecutive quarter of record revenue Friday.
Are we at $2 trillion in credit card debt, yet?
There is still a group of people fighting for houses in premium towns under 1 million $ in North Jersey. Demand still outstripping supply. Had clients beaten out in 2 highest and best situations this past week. Homes were in Hillsdale and River Vale in the $700 to $800,000 ask range.
BRT: True to a point, but working hard is not going to change the environment that was stacked against them.
You don’t have to worry about debt or money when you are dead.
Fast Eddie says:
October 20, 2023 at 9:16 am
…announcing its sixth consecutive quarter of record revenue Friday.
Are we at $2 trillion in credit card debt, yet?
It is becoming more and more apparent that the muppets who are in charge of America are starting to lose control of it.
Just in the last 24 hours the world has heated up quite a bit. (not including global warming should you believe.)
Go have your Pumpkin Spice Latte. It’s the season.
“The young generations got screwed. Reckless Fed policy over a decade.”
Fucked everyone to a degree, and don’t forget the fiscal fiascoes as well.
“This is the slowest sales pace since October 2010, during the Great Recession…”
And the ten year is at its highest since 2007, the eve of the GFC….
Remind me where does that median home price of $394k lie on the spectrum? Oh, that’s right, near ATH…makes perfect sense. /s
Old Realtor,
Mortgage rates be damned. There’s no reason to believe anything is going to change any time soon. People want “that” house and it’s like anything else when it comes to someone bidding against you. How dare they!! I am not going to lose!! Remember the toilet paper rage during Covid? Create a frenzy, let it unfold.
Lurker here re hi-fi discussion from yesterday…
As a semi-pro musician I ditched my vintage hi-fi stuff in favor of super-compact but high-quality pro-sound amps & speakers that would also deliver full-range playback with reasonable fidelity. But it broke my heart to sell my NAD amp and B&W speakers acquired in college and enjoyed their sweet sounds for over 30 years. Still have the Technics turntable which hasn’t been run in a decade but someday I’ll try and fire it up to dub the handful of out-of-print vinyl I have.
With guitar gear, I ditched my tube amps years ago b/c I generally found them to be much too big ‘n heavy one-trick-ponies with inconsistent sound in performance settings. My experience was that not all tube amps sound great, many are just meh compared to better quality SS analog and recent modelers. Even Fender’s latest Tone Master series (which are SS versions of classic tube amps eg Princeton, Twin etc) are acknowledged to deliver as-good-as-tubes sound combined with way more useful features such as attenuation, direct outs and more.
You don’t have to worry about debt or money when you are dead.
My grandfather, once he got his terminal cancer diagnosis, went on a huge credit card binge on his way out.
Grim fan (another one),
I have a Mesa Boogie 50 dual rectifier tube head with twin 12 inch celestion speakers. I haven’t fired it up in a long time. It’s around 25 years old. Oddly, I practice a lot on two acoustic guitars and treat them as electric guitars. When I finally switch to the electric every few months, my accuracy is just on the mark. Anyway, what’s your take on the older Mesa Boogie amps? I will admit, musical tech equipment is something I don’t follow a keen eye on. I’m more focused on advancing skill and knowledge.
My tube amp is from 1967 (Univox U45B) , original tubes still working somehow. Great sound on it. I remember everyone just wanted the old Vox AC30s for their tube amp.
She doesn’t have anything you want to steal….well, nothing you can touch.
ExLax is dead. Long live LAX for obvious reasons!
10:38 my Matchless’s (39w tube amp) clean channel is very Vox’y it’s sublime.
Correction 30w….
I’ve had a half dozen Mesas. Love them all except the original Mark 1 head that squealed with unrelentless feedback at even modest volumes.
Mesa gets clack for using printed circuit boards vs the old style point-to-point turret boards. I find their stuff to be fine!
My older bro has been with Tech 21 NYC for 20+ years he knows a thing or two about these things.
He is recapping my Harmon Kardon HK250.
Working on building out a Nelson Pass style solid state phono stage and preamp as well.
Got some really damn nice chassis from China that are spitting image clones, really nice metalwork. Gone are the days of shitty stamped hammond boxes.
Lots of money around I guess, Net Worth way up:
What was the median net worth?
In 2023, $192,084 was the median household net worth in the United States. This is up from $121,411 in 2020.
What was the average net worth?
The average household net worth in 2023 was $1,059,470. It was $746,821 in 2020. See the inflation adjustment, below.
https://dqydj.com/net-worth-percentiles/
Lol, that average net worth is completely misleading.
Reminds me of the “there is no such thing as a median home” comments from years back.
Agree on the “average”, but median has some value.
Link gives you percentiles for all net worth, which may provide some more meaningful data
10:59 you mentioned him. Very very cool. They’ve been making innovative stuff for years.
I know a guy who did this as well. Not a bad move.
BRT says:
October 20, 2023 at 10:36 am
You don’t have to worry about debt or money when you are dead.
My grandfather, once he got his terminal cancer diagnosis, went on a huge credit card binge on his way out.
For those of you old enough to remember:
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/bergen/paramus/2021/09/29/alexanders-mural-return-valley-hospital-paramus-nj/5904094001/
Whoops looks like I am no longer on the bread line. Got my offer letter. Starts in a few weeks. The best part is I got a promotion before I even started, and no janitorial work is involved. I will be reporting directly to the C-Suite. Fun times failing upwards!!
Anyone diagnosed with a terminal disease should buy a Harmon Kardon HK250 while on a credit card binge.
My buddy also a middle aged tech guy like me just got a new job and sent me a screenshot of the company swag they gave him. Coffee Mug, Pens, and kitchen knives with the company logo. He said they are the best kitchen knives he has ever owned. Who gives knives as company swag? This is not a housewares company either.
Juice,
Congrats on your new job.
Have my mothers wake today and service tomorrow, all the greatest hits will be played including finish it off with Danny Boy. Seemed like a competition between my brothers who could pick the biggest tear jerker. My cousin who was trained in classical music will be singing, I do not know how she does it. Even sang for her mothers funeral who passed in her 50’s.
Re: Mesa Boogie 50 dual rectifiers… Matchless… Univox tube amps
My opinions are in the context of working as a single guitarist in a four-piece ‘classic’ cover band, where versatility is paramount. Given the broad repertoire I’ve tried to build out my live gear with the priority of delivering the most powerful neutral clean tone in the lightest weight rig possible. This way I can cover Dead/Garcia and Ozzy in the same show if need be; in the latter case by switching on the dirt/Marshall effect which is authentic enough for cover-band work.
In a side-by-side comparison it would be easy to identify the tonal superiority of Mesa or Matchless against what I’m using, which is SansAmp character pedals (or clones, apologies to Grim’s bro) with an older Boss multi-effects unit – no modelers in use here yet. But the problem with most ‘guitar amps’, besides the physical bulk is they bring distinct tonal characteristics which are hard to dial-out when something else is needed, so none really have the versatility I require. Fender amps are pretty much a standard-bearer in this regard, but even here I simulate that particular tone to avoid lugging a ‘guitar amp’.
That said, the Mesa stuff is legendary as production amps go (esp top-of-line Dual Rectifier beasts) and I’ve never played through one that sounded less than glorious, regardless of point wiring or PCBs construction. I’d imagine a Matchless would bring the same joy.
Though I believe Randall Smith is still onboard at Gibson, I wonder if the future of Mesa products will eventually resemble Apple stuff absent Jobs guidance.
Speaking of bleeding wealth. My new neighbor who closed in August and paid over a million for the house has completed a lot of updates. Two new HVAC systems, and new laminate on all three levels of the home. They moved walls and columns and replaced a lot of built-in cabinets and shelving. Completely re-landscaped. Full paint job inside also sprayed the wood grain cabinets white. The countertops will be replaced in the spring. He also redid his garage with one of those fancy garage storage systems and fancy sealed floors. All new furniture too, they only moved clothes and houseware etc. There has not been a day without allot of work happening, almost like one of those flipper shows on HGTV except they will be living there. I would say he is in at least another $150,000 so far in updates. So all in about 1.3 million. We do not live on Millionaire Row.
Trick – Sorry for your loss. When my dad passed my cousin who is a great singer flew in from Ireland and sang my Dad’s favorite Irish song he used to sing at parties and even weddings. The song is called Boolavogue about the Irish Rebellion of 1798. It was a very touching service, and every time I hear that song which is rare I think of that day and all the times my Dad sang that song at family gatherings. It is a nice commemoration of you Mom. All the best…
Trick: regrets
Juice: your neighbor’s story is pretty hard to believe
It’s a nice quiet leafy area (other than a train horn or two), but fuck that.
Trick My condolences on your loss.
Juice: I know that song well. At Boolavogue as the sun was setting o’er the bright……
Congrats Juice. Was wondering.
Juice: Congrats on the job! Do you have to schlep into the city?
Randall Smith is a real icon. Fender just launched their modeling Amp which is getting kudos from PJ’s guitarist among others.
Before that the Kemper was the standard for touring musicians. It’s a varied and interesting world.
A lot of metal guitarists and jazz players like the response of a solid state amp.
Chi – Maybe bitcoin early (his kid is in tech) or COVID-19 inheritance? I have no clue how he is paying for it, he never goes to work, business is auto body shop.
BREAKING NEWS!
LIVE
Updated
Oct. 20, 2023, 12:34 p.m. ET5 minutes ago
5 minutes ago
House Speaker Election
Jordan Fails in Third Vote for Speakership as House Remains Paralyzed
Representative Jim Jordan was unable once again to win over opponents who have denied him this week. The ideological and personal divisions in the G.O.P. show no signs of abating.
Tremendous confrontation of very radicalized groups
3B – We both cannot be in the city as I mentioned my better half is in finance and the hammer has dropped there with being in the office. Two days in only for me which will work with me being Mr. Mom for the last 15 years anyway, and the office is close too. Work-Life Balance is the way. I have always had the flexibility to WFH whenever needed, many years before Covid, as some here won’t understand it’s Technology our jobs and team members are across many time zones, so we need flexibility to work off hours and remote. There are times it may be at night or very early morning. It is the only way the work actually gets done.
Lol are you now realizing why remote work is dangerous for companies? You have no idea who is working for you. It’s insane.
Good morning, CIOs. Here’s a cautionary tale on remote work. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is asking companies to “take additional proactive steps with remote IT workers,” based on investigations into a network of North Korean IT workers who contracted themselves out for remote work using false identities.
The Justice Department this week said it seized 17 website domains designed to appear as U.S.-based IT services. Workers hired through these online fronts were actually North Koreans working for China and Russia-based technology companies. Earnings were directed towards North Korea’s weapons programs. The Justice Department last year warned of the potential of contractors to use access to their employer networks “to enable the DPRK’s malicious cyber intrusions.”
The FBI this week also released due diligence measures companies can take to avoid accidentally hiring North Korean IT workers. “Without due diligence, companies risk losing money or being compromised by insider threats they unknowingly invited inside their systems,”said Special Agent in Charge Jay Greenberg of the FBI St. Louis Division.
Juice: 2 days is doable. Understand on the different time zones and teams, and why the traditional 9 to 5 in the office 5 days a week is a thing of the past for many. All the best to you in the new job.
Pumps – Sounds like there were good and cheap workers who were gaming the system. How did the money move? Wire transfers? No mention. There is nothing new about it other than using someone’s internet connection here in the USA to relay to China.
“The workers discovered in the investigation were mostly based in China, and they masked their computers’ location, officials said. Greenberg said most of the time the workers did complete the IT work for which they were hired.”
“Greenberg said IT workers also paid people to use their home Wi-Fi connections, which made it appear they were in the U.S.”
Trick,
Sorry. We are all aging.
Gary, I used to love that mural. When I was growing up in the 70s, I would read the Guiness book of records (the paperback of course) from cover to cover. That was the largest public mural in the world at the time. There were smaller murals all around the Alexander’s in Valley Stream out on the Island too, which is now a multiplex.
Speaking of cool old stuff from Jersey. Do you guys remember by the old Breyers Ice Cream sign just north of exit 14 on the Turnpike? There was a three screen drive-in there. One of the screens faced the turnpike/Pulaski Skyway. I shit you not, I was once stuck in a two-hour plus standstill traffic delay after a nudie seen caused a major pile-up on both highways. There was no escaping. We were there so long, the same steamy scene came up again. I think it was the Paul Newman/Melinda Dillon scene from Slapshot.
On blowing out your credit card debt when near death. Absofuckinglutely. Corruption and America are perfect together. I learned my lesson the hard way in the fiscal/housing crisis. Moral hazard is something you aim for, not avoid. My credit card availability is approaching 400K. Maybe buy a Lamborghini Aventador and drive it into the Washington Monument or something. I’ll come up with something. Only a sucker puts 20% down and plays by the rules.
Juice/3b,
I am in the same situation. My team of five needs the flexibility to work when the work comes in, 24/7. Either that, or they have to triple all of our salaries since we would all be on call 24/7 (which we technically are). Nah, better to have us exhausted and paid double time. Pump’s knows all.
Libturd: And that’s only going to continue.
Lib: People are still doing 5 percent down even with the limited inventory, and they are being approved, although I some are not. With mortgage rates at 8 percent, I think there will be less of those, even with 20 percent down, you will have deals that won’t get done.
When I was growing up in the 70s, I would read the Guiness book of records…
I used to read The World Almanac. It was over 1,000 pages thick.
Trick – condolences…
Trick
Sorry for your loss.
“I have no clue how he is paying for it, he never goes to work, business is auto body shop.”
LOL, answer is embedded in the question? Pretty sure it’s all cash on both sides…
“Tremendous confrontation of very radicalized groups…”
At least the Rs are trying to break the stranglehold the atherosclerotic, senile, dying-in-their-seats fossils have on this country’s fiscal well being.
Main point for a couple of these younger holdouts seems to be no more omnibus bills pre-negotiated among three senior Members presented to the other 432 Members an hour before a vote with the implicit ‘no input’ just take the shit sandwich and eat it…
Fighting for that change is a bad thing?
You liberals are literally fucking sheep.
Woof, woof move over there…baaaaaa
Why is the Left’s comfort zone selecting and electing someone to tell them what to do? You seem to have a pathological need for ‘stability’. Sad, given the history of that Party….
Judgements like that are meaningless
LAX et al… That new Fender modeler is priced as much as a Kemper or Fractal, not surprising for their foray but can’t imagine it’ll move many units, or needles. So much cheap music tech in the market plus oceans of gear on Craigslist so I’m guessing they’ll soon be a ‘lite’ version at less than half the current price. Still there’s lots of stiff competition in that space which doesn’t even include software emulations… definitely a deflationary market.
Regarding amplifier emulation hardware in general I’ve found the SansAmp gear is still good bang/$ and has perhaps the longest track record and reputation in that space. If I ever go back to a conventional amp I might look to pick up the Trademark 60 which is a really underrated combo. I recently sold an original model SansAmp (not the Classic) for way more than I paid decades ago so I guess the market agrees with me.
Disclaimer: Just a satisfied owner, not affiliated with Tech 21 or Grim’s family
Trick
Sorry for your loss, losing a parent is hard.
Juice, congrats…..Trick, condolences on your loss….
“I used to read The World Almanac. It was over 1,000 pages thick.”
I used to ‘read’ the dictionary…yeah, the actual dictionary lol.
TD America now has a CD that is paying 5.957%.
Hard to beat and it pays a monthly interest payment. It is a 5 year callable CD ( at full value) United Fidelity Bank (IN). These CDs can also be re-sold at anytime and just like a bond if rates fall this becomes more valuable $$$.
trick,
Very sorry to hear. My 79 yo mother just flew back to Dublin yesterday and always a worry. My favorite version. Hope you find peace
https://youtu.be/oSKM0YiU8LU?feature=shared
The most fascinating confrontation among radicals currently is on the left. Progressive left who largely downplayed the anti semitism being cultivated within the party have been drawn into the fray. No moderates remain when it comes to Israel.
You have Fetterman the slob vs the squad. It’s going to be an awkward holiday past at the DNC
Somewhat tangential to the supply demand issue.
I’ve been looking into building methods that differ from traditional stick built construction. There’s a fair amount of prefab construction happening in areas that are prone to climate events, and for some reason a good chunk of western Europe, probably due to lumber supply issues? It is not uncommon for a homebuyer to pick a design from a portfolio offered by an architectural firm and start building a modern space that checks the occupants boxes (h**ps://projektyzwizja.pl/30,polecane-projekty-domow).
I was just reading about Integrated Concrete Forms (ICF) (h**ps://newhousebuilder.com/insulated-concrete-forms/) which are one of the many modular premade exterior wall elements which can be used. ICF are light and hollow styrofoam blocks that snap together like lego blocks into which concrete is poured which forms the structure. Steel beam framing is also used albeit sparingly. The results area impressive:
h**ps://youtu.be/XKUuRPiQiDs?si=AfMPUHk6qGTzRz-f&t=245
The house you see here in the YT video is quoted to cost 450K USD/ ~4.3PLN = ~$100K USD in a “developer state” so poured,plumbed and wired, land costs and prep is separate…You are left to furnish/design/equip your own… seeing as how this is not in the US that doesn’t comparatively speak to anything. I don’t know how much a comparable stick frame would cost, but the difference in what is possible (in terms of design of final product) is pretty big. Also, that ICF page I linked has examples and pictures of ICF built homes in the US which were the only ones left standing after major US hurricanes.
Stupid question of the day: Is the reason we don’t see design like this (generally in the US outside of NNJ) is because stylistic tastes differ, zoning restrictions do not allow them, or the lack of wholesales to supply finishing parts?
I show you evidence over and over again of why it does not work for companies and why they don’t want to offer it anymore….yet, your personal bias, refuses to look at it negatively because you only care about yourself.
Libturd says:
October 20, 2023 at 1:40 pm
Juice/3b,
I am in the same situation. My team of five needs the flexibility to work when the work comes in, 24/7. Either that, or they have to triple all of our salaries since we would all be on call 24/7 (which we technically are). Nah, better to have us exhausted and paid double time. Pump’s knows all.
Pumps,
Let me know the next time you are called into the office on Sunday, or in July or August. Enjoy your convention in AC.
You only know what you know. You are government worker and all that matters is that you punch a clock on time. Tenure has you so protected that you could stupp the lunch lady and you would still get your annual increase. I respect that you supposedly teach in the ghetto. I always wanted to do that. I went to college to teach. Then I realized how far behind educators were when compared to what was going on in the real world. Still teaching script? Mandarin?
We both have different viewpoints based on our experiences. This is not selfishness you dolt.
And enjoy your holiday.
Boomer Remover,
It’s not offered here because what’s best for the people is never considered. How to profit the most off the people is all that matters. Politicians and contractors alike.
Schtupp the lunch lady. Lost my German.
I used to read 29-volume of the Encyclopedia cover to cover
leftwing says:
October 20, 2023 at 2:17 pm
“I used to read The World Almanac. It was over 1,000 pages thick.”
I used to ‘read’ the dictionary…yeah, the actual dictionary lol.
Lib: And don’t forget cancelled vacations, sometimes a day before they started.
Lib,
As of a right now, every company is against it. I will leave it at that.
Those low cost construction methods come with trade-offs. I’ve heard of them for decades in places like Mexico where you have a builder who just wants to pump out low cost, undifferentiated homes out of a cookie-cutter kit. The cost comes down the most when they are all lined up and completed all together.
Here’s a video that looks like the kind of thing that is cheap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx906ExPFCs
Who knows if such homes would meet US codes, or would suit homebuyer tastes here. I’m guessing not. And I’m guessing that if you make fancy homes this way, it’s no longer cost effective. Like 3D printed homes that sounded cool but in practice look like crap.
Why doesn’t the government use it for subsidized housing. where customer tastes don’t matter? Probably the same reason NJ govt pays top dollar for shit roads that take forever to complete. What’s in it for the corrupt politicians and bureaucrats?
What you don’t understand is that hybrid is the new normal. I always said that until management got the upper hand in hiring, one or two days in the office would be the norm. I know of noone who is back 5 days a week. Noone. Even my BIL who is a government worker like you is only in one day per week.
Be careful about speaking in generalizations. It’s the first sign of a lack of intelligence in people.
🤣🤣🤣
Libturd says:
October 20, 2023 at 3:01 pm
Pumps,
Let me know the next time you are called into the office on Sunday, or in July or August. Enjoy your convention in AC.
You only know what you know. You are government worker and all that matters is that you punch a clock on time. Tenure has you so protected that you could stupp the lunch lady and you would still get your annual increase. I respect that you supposedly teach in the ghetto. I always wanted to do that. I went to college to teach. Then I realized how far behind educators were when compared to what was going on in the real world. Still teaching script? Mandarin?
We both have different viewpoints based on our experiences. This is not selfishness you dolt.
Trick,
Sorry man.
Re insulated concrete forms…
I’m not a construction pro but having been an enthusiastic subscriber to the ‘Fine Homebuilding’ publication for a while and taking some of their ideas to my local building official…
My take is that if such construction alternatives, regardless of perceived superiority are not in the mainstream of local governance, then the cost PSF to get the project off the ground often becomes uncompetitive with conventional building as a result of complications with permitting and labor.
Teachers had to go back after Covid. They liked teaching from home. Parents won the battle.
“What you don’t understand is that hybrid is the new normal. I always said that until management got the upper hand in hiring, one or two days in the office would be the norm. I know of noone who is back 5 days a week.
Oh… and lending.
No One,
It’s more like this. When one side makes something cheaper, there is always a thief that will take advantage of the difference.
If the govt gives a 1000 dollar rebate on a furnace, an installer jacks up his price by 1000 dollars.
You buy a manufactured home at half price, the guy with the crane jacks up his price, and it comes out the same as stick built.
Lib: I don’t know anyone in any kind of the big companies who are in 5 days a week in the office. I do know some smaller north Jersey law firms who require 5 days a week, because the old timers don’t like hybrid/ WFH. Although one of them ironically does hybrid at times because he is a partner, so he can. They have lost a few candidates they wanted to hire , because of no hybrid.
Phoenix: The US is in decline, we had a good run. We will end up like Britain or France, faded days of past glory.
3b, I think it’s worse than that. Britain simply lost it’s reserve currency status and became a normal country. The US is on the fast track to major bankruptcy, and it’s been building for a good 30 years. There’s no way out mathematically. All while we’ve let our entire infrastructure crumble before our eyes. But on top of it, we’ve steadily marched towards corporate rule, lawlessness, and the importation of massive amounts of people from countries that boast a murder rate north of 150. It’s a recipe for disaster. In the end, we’ll be like Brazil. High GDP, high crime.
Teachers had to go back after Covid. They liked teaching from home. Parents won the battle.
There was no battle in NJ. The schools that wanted to stay shut down did so without a fight. I was one of maybe 5 people in town who spoke at board meetings to try to get my town to go back to in person. The board laughed in my face. The NJ schools all decided to open in unison about a week after Biden took office.
The average person in their 20s has seen:
-the first successful ouster vote of a Speaker ever
-3 of the 4 presidential impeachments
-2 of the 4 popular vote-electoral college splits
-the first-ever presidential indictments
-a coup attempt
3b says:
October 20, 2023 at 4:03 pm
Phoenix: The US is in decline, we had a good run. We will end up like Britain or France, faded days of past glory
Anyone realize that for much of this year, Californians EV buyers were getting $7,500 tax credits from the IRS and $7,500 from a California EV subsidy program. Tesla was letting government pay $15,000 toward the cost of most of each car! (And by government I of course mean taxpayers.) I think the California subsidy money ran out sometime in August, and Tesla started cutting pricing. With Tesla having taxpayers pay from 10% to 20% of the cost of every car they sell, it’s no wonder their profits were recently high, but in their last quarter they made less than a 10% automotive EBIT margin so without the subsidies they’d still be losing money it looks like.
Now that governments have to start paying higher interest payments on their debts, and as the volume of EVs increase, I wonder how long they can continue to borrow money to fund such generous subsidies to EVs.
But apparently next year the federal government gets even more generous, paying for your car right at the point of sale, up to $7500. Don’t even need to wait for your tax credit. But I won’t qualify to receive this subsidy, only to pay for other people’s cars, due to my annual income.
BRT: You are probably right,
BRT,
The fiscal challenges are real, but bankruptcy isn’t the destination for the US, thanks to borrowing in its own fiat currency. Interest rates may well squeeze spending, and/or inflation/devaluation becomes a problem. But most other fiat currency blocks have similar debt problems, so I don’t see what the dollar majorly devalues against, other than perhaps the Swiss franc and gold.
There’s definitely lots of debt in the world, after more than a decade of nearly free interest, and it’s going to be very painful as the interest cost of debt goes up.
MMT was a fantasy, more difficult choices are coming. The US government could have probably financed and paid for carbon free nuke reactors during the 10 years that borrowing was nearly free. Instead we got a bunch of subsidized consumption, a few overpriced road projects to politically connected construction companies. Some vaccines of mixed utility in return for getting bossed around about everything. School funding that went into woke administrative programs.
IMO, you’ll see all the other western nation’s currencies implode. If you look at Canada, it’s already a reality for them. When I say bankruptcy, I essentially mean, the death of the dollar via devaluation. We are getting closer every year and with a government hellbent on getting involved in 2 wars, maybe 3 if we can poke China enough, it’s going to be the end.
“In the end, we’ll be like Brazil.”
Minus their hot women.
“But apparently next year the federal government gets even more generous, paying for your car right at the point of sale, up to $7500. Don’t even need to wait for your tax credit. But I won’t qualify to receive this subsidy, only to pay for other people’s cars, due to my annual income.”
I won’t either. No place to plug one in. I get to support the wealthy homeowners, and retired greatest and boomers.
$100 billion dollars is enough money to put roughly 757,000 students through American colleges for 4 years.
With the average cost of an American football franchise at $1 billion, you could own every team in the NFL and have enough left over to buy all teams in the MLB, the NHL, and the English Premier League.
In many areas, a new elementary or primary school might cost between $10 million to $30 million. With 100 billion dollars, you could potentially build or buy around 3,000 to 10,000 elementary schools.
With a GDP of $90 billion dollars, you could practically own Costa Rica.
Global Debt is around $230 Trillion. All of us will be dead before it’s paid off.
BRT – I consider you to be on this side of distribution ————————————>
No way no how war again in Asia. The folks that simulate this kind of stuff know that the island is simply too close to the mainland.
You are old enough to know about MAD and have watched War Games, there is no war game where we win Taiwan.
Put this on real speakers…… the fact that this didn’t get an grammy is criminal….
https://youtu.be/reqSkWE4crg?si=8tu2OgEtmyxrXI6x&t=271
Chi – BTW fuck Colts Neck. Our boys crushed them hard, and it’s not the first time.
I am sorry Chi I forgot to add the middle finger. So do tell us about your expanse? No pride in your earnings? We all know dirty renters etc and you pulled the trigger.
Start complaining about the taxes already and be real.
This I know. We can’t even handle the 3rd world countries we invade. Doesn’t mean our politicians aren’t arrogant enough to try. And the incompetence in the military grows at all levels.
BRT – Perhaps 50 empires have ruled the world over time immemorial, we have plenty of might. Be worried like the rest of the world when you don’t. They all envy us.
Remember what we spend on our military. Could you imagine what our bond yields would need to be if we didn’t?
It makes no sense why there is an endless demand for sub- par, nasty, depressing, dated housing… when there are so many well off people WHO ARE [EXPLETIVE] LITERALLY SWIMMING IN CASH. Disagree? Fine. Not you, not I, but keep going up that socioeconomic chain and you get high corpo low FANG folks bidding and absolutely blowing their nut on dated, nasty homes and then spend even more remodeling old floor plans.
People laughed and pointed when I hosted my cousins from Europe. I chatted about construction and cost, the guy who was over took out his phone and started showing me pictures. My BIL’s GF happened to pass by when we were looking at pictures of his house being built….she leaned in and said oh, what’s that? Is that going to be a garage door? She pointed at a large opening in a walled space. He was confused for a bit and then with a deapan delivery said, no that’s the window in my home office, we were waiting to have the 10′ widnow pane have it put in. This guy is a regular IT peon with low six figure salary, he is not the global SVP for a corpo.
I won’t even go into the energy recuperation tech that keeps his (admittedly crazy for their earnings) utility bill low.
You know what my energy recuperation tech is? The autumnal ritual of draping [EXPLETIVE] plastic shrink wrap over drafty windows and sealing with a hair dryer.
The wealthy American consumer (let’s call it top 10%? HHI) is discriminating in so many areas, and spends to stand out… why the [EXPLETIVE] are these people pulling up in a $80K car to a nasty dated stick built shack with an outdated floor plan, tiny windows… but a big ass TV and a wolf/viking range…. while the dehumidifer runs 24/7 in the basement… How were people duped into thinking this is fine? And don’t give me that sht about coastal areas… OH, NC, it’s more or less all the same, just old arse housing stock…
The home I linked to is $120K to get to developer state, and another $150K to finish to the level you see in the video. I don’t care how much you spent on your kitchen reno…. Have you seen how this basic home was finished? WHY THE [EXPLETIVE] ARE PEOPLE BEING ASKED TO PAY $450K for a home depot special new build in the middle of a Texas prairie?
If you’re a tired schlub whose house is your single asset after toiling away for 40 years, that’s fine. But there are people with seven figure portfolios calling these relatively large but humble abodes home!
I’ve seen wealth, buddy knocked down $800K and built $4MM from a NNJ lux builder…. that looks nice…sure, though arguably not any better spec’d and designed than the homes I linked to…but there’s a lot of folks below that treshold with money, a lot of it, and they keep pumping it into these sad s-h0les.
The boy raised by wolves, 1889.
Dina Sanichar, a six-year-old feral child, lived in the Bulandshahr region of India.
Sanichar lived with a pack of wolves mimicking their ways and partaking in their day-to-day life.
This remarkable case is a great example of how important environmental factors are to human behavior and how adaptable we are to almost any situation.
The extraordinary story of Sanichar captivated the imagination of Rudyard Kipling, who drew inspiration from it for his work, “The Jungle Book.”
Subsequently, Disney transformed this book into their acclaimed movie.
7:29 last show of the US Tour in Dec.
Tickets in hand.
Dec 17th Crypto.com arena.
NHMD…lmao. Up 42% today. Lmfao. Let’s go!! Get me my money back! Goonies never say die!!
The confidence with which the Fed talks about rates staying higher for longer will destroy the world and their credibility.
They overtightened.
They have no fucking idea what they’ve done.
You know what I can’t wait for?! To buy the f’ing dip in real estate…targeting Monmouth county next cycle.
Pumps like many of us it will be feet first, make sure you flip it quick.
pancakes in a can taught me all about taking profits. Valuable lessons from that stock that totally made me a better investor…and with luck, might get my money back and some.