From CNBC:
The housing market was already painful, ugly and anxious. Now the 8% mortgage rate is back
Today’s housing market is a toxic mix of high mortgage rates, high prices, tight supply and strangely strong pent-up demand — and it’s scaring off buyers and sellers alike.
Prices were already high, driven by supercharged demand during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. Now the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 8%, the highest in decades, making things even tougher. Mortgage demand is at its lowest point in nearly 30 years.
“I think it’s painful. I think it’s ugly,” Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, said on CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Thursday.
…
Would-be sellers, meanwhile, are trapped. They have little desire to trade the 3% rate they currently have for an 8% mortgage rate on a new purchase.
“I don’t think anybody in my community of mortgage originators would disagree that in many ways, this is worse than the great financial crisis in terms of volume and activity,” MND’s Graham said.
He’s also unsure when the market will see a decline in rates. “But we do hear a chorus of Fed speakers, especially last week, in a very notable way, saying that they are restrictive and that they can wait and see what happens with the policy filtering through to the economy,” he said.
…
Prices are a different story.
“Prices look to be flat from this point onwards at an 8% rate, despite the housing shortage,” added Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR.
Yun noted that metropolitan markets with faster job growth and relatively affordable prices, however, will see an upswing in sales. He points to Florida markets such as Tampa, Jacksonville and Orlando, as well as Houston, Texas, and Memphis, Tennessee.
Buyers today will likely get the best deals from homebuilders, especially the large production builders such as Lennar and D.R. Horton. The builders are helping with affordability by buying down interest rates for their customers. This is something they have not typically done in the past — at least not at this scale.
…
For those still wanting to upgrade to a bigger home or downsize to a smaller one, they are caught in a conundrum.
Prices are still rising due to the supply and demand imbalance, but sellers are being more flexible. So a buyer could purchase now at the higher rates and hope to get a break on the price, or they can wait until rates drop.
But when they do, there is likely going to be a flood of demand, resulting in bidding wars.
Where is Chi?
5.022
Pay up greedy grabbers. My first mortgage was 8 5/8 back in 2000.
Boomer is wanting a property tax break, even with his 2 percent mortgage on his second and third houses, his 7500 off the Tesla, his pension, his Medicare, and his Social Security check, all while jacking up the federal debt on the youth.
Kids, pony up for boomer. You will be paying their debt for the same amount of time that Plutonium-239 takes to decay.
Circa 1990, my adjustable went to 12.4% on said condo, Belleville somehow figured a way to tax it at $5,500 and as a recent out of stater, my car insurance on my one car in the infamous JUA was over $2,000.
My wife and I brought coffee “singles” (essentially coffee teabags that I calculated only cost 11 cents per) to work because we were not going to pay the 50 cents Pru charge in the cafeteria for coffee!
Boomers left the entire country full of nuclear waste too—huge amounts of of used nuclear fuel still stored onsite at 77 different reactor sites across 35 states. No plan to do anything about it, other than kick the can a few more generations.
Even that trans-bald klepto had the same idea as other countries bury it in stone somewhere deep. Finland just built an underground nuclear burial site, it will only house about 5% the amount of waste we have and will last for hundreds of thousands of years. Pick a rock made of granite, dig a deep hole and bury it already.
How much are these rate drops these articles talk about? Is it from 8 percent to 6 or 5 percent, or is it back to 3 percent or less? And how long to get there? Do we go from 8 to 3 percent in a year, or is it two years?
So a buyer could purchase now at the higher rates and hope to get a break on the price, or they can wait until rates drop.
But when they do, there is likely going to be a flood of demand, resulting in bidding wars.
A break on price? LOL. Not here. Go ahead, bid lower than the asking and watch the multiple bids blow by you like a Route 80 convoy of fully loaded Peterbilt 389s. And a flood of demand? You mean 20 bids in two days is not a flood of demand? I want a hand-written letter along with your offer sheet stating the reason you want to buy my house. If you mention things like close to train, walkable downtowns and that type of nonsense, it’ll get rejected. I want to read things like, you knew this home was the one when that fawn stared at you from the croft on the side of the house as the sun filtered through the breezy, leafy maples dotting the enclave in a brilliant haze of crimson and amber.
700K mortgage at 8% vs 2.5% is an insane difference – I cannot believe the amount of buyers….
I always thought I had a decent income, but now I really question that
House two hit the market this weekend, open house yesterday, 200+ attendees registered, 3 offers yesterday, best and final tonight.
3B – To get to 3 percent again the Fed would need to fire up QE again. Remember the Feds bonds purchases allow the banks to make money on the spread and accounted for at least 1% of the end-user savings in the mortgage rate.
The other question is – at what point do you ever see a decline again in north jersey? Inventory is forever low with people locked into low rates. The population is only increasing, jobs are forever concentrated in the city area (lol suburban office parks)… having a commutable distance with decent schools, decent safety is what everyone wants.
I used to think I would be insane to buy a house now, but if I can sell mine and upgrade it is not terrible… I imagine as you go a little further away / little higher price – there is a lot less competition and a strong cash offer will work. Extra 10 minutes of commute who cares…
Hoboken Cop and her kids make it big on Tick Tock. Gordon Ramsey was at their restaurant in Dumont to film an episode of Kitchen Nightmares.
https://www.nj.com/entertainment/2023/10/gordon-ramsay-blasts-nj-pizza-spot-on-kitchen-nightmares-tiktok-famous-family-still-hurting.html
BTW they opened next door to the more famous staple in that town known as Uncle Franks Pizza. That place has outlived all other Pizza joints for miles around in pizza delivery wars of Dumont, Bergenfield, Cresskill and New Milford etc.
1987,
I’ve resorted to saving sugar and ketchup packets. I’m already acting like a senior citizen.
Juice, when I lived in Bergenfield, I still went to Uncle Frank’s. Their slices were just better than the other places. It’s right next store to Denaro’s as well. Best subs in the area IMO.
re: ” insane to buy a house now”
When I was growing up a NYC doorman and his family of four children moved in two houses down. This was when mortgage rates were around 12%. He was glad he bought then as rates were near 18% a few years earlier. Like everyone, they refinanced when rates dropped again. That is the deal they have to sell themselves, down the road rates will drop and refinance. Getting out of an apartment in the Bronx, Brooklyn or Queens and living in the leafy burbs of NJ or Long Island is moving on up the American Dream.
It also helps to work as a doorman at a famous Hotel in Manhattan, as tips in cash I heard were more than $1000 a week back then. When his kids grew up he and his wife moved back to Yonkers. Better Irish culture as I was told. Lol!….just easier to walk to the bar than get pinched by the Suburban PoPo who have nothing better to do.
Juice: Those articles that talk about buying now and refinancing when rates drop are not discussing QE, and what it will take to get rates lower again. I would bet there are buyers out there now, and certainly realtors who are telling them that when rates drop to 3 percent again they can refinance.
3B – Talking financial advice from a realtor is like talking medical advice from a doorman!
Juice Ain’t no doormen with 4 kids buying a house in the suburbs today, and on one income. Same house today, two people working , and maybe one or two kids.
Apple GPT coming?
They finally are spending some money on AI.
Every time I use Siri I am extremely disappointed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-10-22/what-is-apple-doing-in-ai-revamping-siri-search-apple-music-and-other-apps-lo1ffr7p
I would bet there are buyers out there now, and certainly realtors who are telling them that when rates drop to 3 percent again they can refinance.
You read my mind. Along with making that extra room a third bedroom, knocking out that wall to expand a little, adding a sunroom and extending the dormers. It’s amazing how many house tour guides are architects as well.
Siri sucks.
It always wants to point you to a web page instead of just giving you the answer.
They aren’t talking to the husbands, they are talking to the wives. And if you want to stay married, you best buy her what she wants to keep her happy.
The whole goal is to get the wife excited.
Juice Box says:
October 23, 2023 at 9:19 am
3B – Talking financial advice from a realtor is like talking medical advice from a doorman!
Ain’t no doormen with 4 kids buying a house in the suburbs today, and on one income.
You have to deliver boxes now. Apparently, you can earn $170,000 doing it. And before anyone blows a gasket, I did it. I delivered for smaller services, loaded trucks, unloaded trucks, almost froze to death in winter, almost dropped from heat exhaustion in summer, did double shifts, overnights and weekends all while earning minimum wage.
Siri sucks.
It always wants to point you to a web page instead of just giving you the answer.
Apple is fat and lazy now. They’re living on hype. Complacency will fade to oblivion. The muppet cult that can’t live without them is driving their income. The Steve Jobs era is looooong gone. I said it repeatedly here; place any one of us in the CEO seat and have our EVPs report on each of their divisions. Offer no suggestions and ask for their ideas and plans going forward. That’s it. You could be as high as kite every day and simply let your minions toil over ways to keep Wall Street happy. What are we up to, iShit Phone version 183? Same as version 54. The current CEO has the charisma of a dweeb.
Open AI’s GPT is available on your iPhone, you don’t even have to type, you can just converse with it. I know because I use it to gin up crazy custom bedtime stories on the fly.
In America all kids are above average, and all working families upper middle class
Mike S says:
October 23, 2023 at 8:28 am
I always thought I had a decent income, but now I really question that
This from a guy who the other day was asking how to use Yahoo search…
Lol!
Fast Eddie says:
October 23, 2023 at 9:43 am
Siri sucks.
It always wants to point you to a web page instead of just giving you the answer.
Apple is fat and lazy now. They’re living on hype. Complacency will fade to oblivion. The muppet cult that can’t live without them is driving their income. The Steve Jobs era is looooong gone. I said it repeatedly here; place any one of us in the CEO seat and have our EVPs report on each of their divisions. Offer no suggestions and ask for their ideas and plans going forward. That’s it. You could be as high as kite every day and simply let your minions toil over ways to keep Wall Street happy. What are we up to, iShit Phone version 183? Same as version 54. The current CEO has the charisma of a dweeb.
This from a guy who the other day was asking how to use Yahoo search…
And this from a guy who I keep asking to find the post where I asked how to use a search and he won’t do it.
Lol!
Yeah, but he can suck the chrome off a trailer hitch and lay back with a beer.
Fast Eddie says:
October 23, 2023 at 9:43 am
What are we up to, iShit Phone version 183? Same as version 54. The current CEO has the charisma of a dweeb.
Starter position in TRIP, lib….
Musk is off high [expletive] brain during the investor Q and A. I wanted to listen it to myself, and it’s way worse than I thought. He is just stammering, stuttering, rambling about peripheral topics but never addressing thoughtful questions being asked of him. The circular logic coning out of his arse hole is jarring…
“FSD has astounding economics in a positive way
when you look at vehicles today they only get 10-12 hours of usage out of 168 hours, there’s parking and insurnace. there’s a lot of overhead.. so…………… i mean…… yeah…… itititis…. the economics of system are insanely positive given that all the cars were making we BELIEVE are capable of full autonomy, so if you’re able to increase the utility of that car by a factor of five…..used 50 hours per week, out of 168 total hours….. um…. you’ve increased the vale of that by five, but it still costs the same. Like you have something, we’re a hardware company with software margins….”
awkward silence……
I can’t, I simply can’t with this guy…. I don’t know how people invest Other Peoples Money into this stock and sleep at night.
Better than half way through Walter Isaacson’s new book on him, good read. Not sugar coated.
Expressing genuine surprise that payments are not dropping despite vehicle prices lowering. He’s stumbling, stuttering, and chuckling his way through explaining that the average monthly payments not changing despite a drop in price due to increased interest cost… to a room full of finance analysts with MBA’s.
“If you need to lose 15 pounds…i mean you could… you know…. chop your arm off….but then you’re sitting there with one arm and you’re still fat…. uhuhuhuhuhuhuh….”
Talk about not being able to read the room! Call after call… really smart articulate guys asking well designed questions… and they’re just met with that stupid voice just feeling his way around a dark room.
Note: MB apparently taking legal responsibility for crashes occurring while using their level III autonomous system. Interesting.
Subprime auto loan deficiencies at new high since 1994…
https://www.businessinsider.com/more-people-missing-car-payments-another-ominous-sign-for-economy-2023-10
In a funny(?) sign, when I went to google the data I inadvertently typed ‘subprime auto mortgage deficiency’. LOL, not really….
For Phoenix….
https://abcnews.go.com/US/maryland-circuit-court-judge-andrew-wilkinson-shot-killed/story?id=104166105
Left,
TRIP is a good company, but needs to figure out how to profit off of their content. Though the current price does look over done. If she goes <10, I might even jump in.
Boomer Re,
Musk's brilliance was knowing subsidies would allow him to bring the electric car to market. It was a no lose proposition (well at least no personal losses). I knew there was something horribly wrong with him when, first, he nearly got fired from the board at Tesla for things he said on stock message boards. Second, his performance on Saturday night live where he took that opportunity to promote Dogecoin. He seems to be a Trump in the making. More interested in notoriety and ego than anything else.
It’s not hard to take the Taleb-ian position on Musk.
There have been Musks before, and there were bound to be more Musks.
Historically, might have been oil, railroads, other diversified industries, etc etc. Musk is representative of the big risk taker. Most fail, for sure. Hell, Musk has publically stated that he’s made massive bets before, knowing full well if it didn’t play out, he’d be done for.
The guy has been doubling down for a long time, and maybe that strategy will continue to pay off … until it don’t.
Look at Twitter – was that part of some well orchestrated master plan, or was that just the next in the series of “let it ride” bets?
I think Musk’s twitter purchase was more in line with, he needs to leave a lasting legacy, so taking it from Dorsey and his crew was probably the best way to save freedom of information. Twitter’s reliability for truth/opinion was in a bad bad place during covid and the elections.
I’d hate to see the Russia/Ukraine or Israel/Gaza information suppression without Twitter in it’s current form right now.
As far as Tesla goes, I always maintained, it’s a creation of subsidies. That company wouldn’t exist without them. The product was never profitable on its own.
It’s hard for me to process grown men genuflecting to this jarkoff, but yet here we are.
I am getting a kick out of knowing that he is now completely toxic to his core user base… wealthy woke democrats.
Lib, understanding past performance is no indicator of future, good luck on an entry under $10….
Other than the last six months where she’s been between the mid-14s and 18 in its twelve years as a public company it’s only spent 17 days under $18.00…the lows were during COVID, briefly, at 14.45 (closing) and 13.73 (intraday). Seems to be respecting the mid-14s as support.
Reports earnings on 11/6, between now and then I may add some more as long as she respects that line…she blows it beforehand I’ll hold, wait and see; she blows it afterward I’ll play the three day rule and write a bunch of puts and then possibly add some more longs….
Before I go too deep need to figure out (and first determine if it is worth the time to figure out) the Liberty Tripadvisor relationship….
Why is the USD taking such a dump against the EUR today?
Maybe they have functioning government?
It’s hard for me to process grown men genuflecting to this jarkoff, but yet here we are.
Borack Obammy? Davin Newsom? Steven Colbert?
USD has been on a tear since July vs Euro. It’s overbought.
It is officially a pie recession. Our PTA just sent a scathing email that we did not order enough over-priced frozen Tgiving pies. Over 300 sold last year and now only 160 this year. I just paid them $60 for teacher gifts last week. F-off. I ain’t paying $30 for a crap pie. More anecdotes that people are struggling though.
Bystander: Bill Gross expects recession by year end. Just saying.
‘I Just Wasn’t in the Mood to Work.’ American Employees Reinvent the Sick Day
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/workplace/bosses-have-a-problem-people-are-actually-using-sick-days-d45b5f9a?st=50id2dv30qyslud&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Quality of worker is going to chit. Simple as that. Pandemic made people lazy, and a lot of them can’t overcome it. Crying about wfh….they just don’t want to work and get paid.
40 written offers received as of 5pm.
A couple of strong all cash offers.
Calling for best and finals.
Dufus does not get it as usual. Americans have and always will take the least amount of sick time compared to rest of civilized world. Sheet, I managed 3 resources in Europe and they take entire month of sick leave. Usually the story is some surgery folllowed by weeks of doctors orderd to rest at home. Always around holidays end of year. Also, 25% of women get no paid time off for having a baby. Get lost Blumpy. I never use my sick days but started to use entire 6 days. We work enough extra houts.
Grim,
Sounds like a good plan. Fed blows up Bitcoin. Bitcoin mints thousands of young, lucky, and dumb millenial millionaires. They use their proceeds to buy way overpriced housing. Housing collapses and they will be back to no equity for decades.
Grim – Any letters?
“40 written offers received as of 5pm. A couple of strong all cash offers. Calling for best and finals.”
and
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/theres-never-been-a-worse-time-to-buy-instead-of-rent-bd3e80d9?mod=wknd_pos1
Any questions?
Exponential graphs approaching escape velocity are my faves…..
By, I dunno if that’s continuing. Most teachers use maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of their sick days per year. But, the 22-23 year old Gen Z teachers burn through them all by January and they start getting docked pay. They all do and we are baffled. As young teachers, it wasn’t uncommon for us to just work through it and not take a single day off. You wise up as you get older and manage them.
They are upfront about the fact that they are partying it up. We have a sick day bank that we donate to for people who have surgeries or other major medical incidents. We had to explain to them that the “sick bank” wasn’t for them. It was pathetic.
40 written offers received as of 5pm.
My price tag just reached 7 digits.
8, Ed..you deserve it.
America is a criminal empire. I have no skin in this game. No fan of oligarchs either. But when a country attempts to steal a persons private wealth just because they are citizens of a country they don’t like it’s still theft.
“The Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit to seize a $300million superyacht belonging to a oligarch known as the ‘Russian Gatsby.’
Filed in federal court in New York, the civil forfeiture claim comes amid rising tensions between the US and Moscow, and a series of ramped-up sanctions against people close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The owner of the boat, 57-year-old energy mogul Suleiman Kerimov, fits that criteria, and is worth an estimated $14billion. He has close ties to the Kremlin.”