Tech’s outsized impact on real estate speculation

From Realtor.com:

Reassessing the ‘Amazon Effect’ on Home Prices in One U.S. Metro Area

Seattle-based Amazon’s announcement that it would be building a second headquarters in Northern Virginia boosted home prices and sales, albeit temporarily, according to a new report.

The finding is based on an analysis by Bright MLS, a real-estate database company. In “Five Years Later: Amazon’s Impact on the Local Housing Market,” Bright MLS analyzed closed sales and price trends and trends in for-sale listing descriptions in the greater Washington, D.C., region over an 18-month period.

The authors found that after Amazon announced that it was building its secondary headquarters, dubbed HQ2 during an exhaustive and high-stakes search process, in Arlington, Va., in November 2018, home prices rose faster and houses sold faster in Arlington than in neighboring areas.

“The announcement itself did prompt a spike in real-estate values,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, told MarketWatch. “But it was pretty short-lived.”

The Bright MLS report answers some of the questions that arose when Seattle-based Amazon first selected Arlington for its second corporate campus.

The news immediately stirred predictions that housing prices would shoot up as a result of the tech giant’s presence, especially because Amazon said it would ultimately create 25,000 jobs with an average salary of $150,000.

The report shows that Amazon had an effect on local real estate, but not necessarily a lasting one.

“Amazon HQ2 did have a transitory impact on the housing market and did give home prices a shot in the arm,” the report stated.

Amazon pushed back on the main findings of the report.

Prices of single-family homes rose by an average of 17% in the “National Landing” market—which comprises ZIP Codes 22202 in Arlington and 22305 in Alexandria—between the last quarter of 2018 when HQ2 was announced and the first quarter of 2020, Bright MLS found.

But home prices were only up by 10% nationwide over the same time period.

separate 2019 report by Realtor.com found that home prices had risen 17.3% in the six months after Amazon’s announcement. That was considerably higher than the increase in the national median list price during that time, which was 5.5%.

“Housing demand picked up in Arlington, Va., after the announcement of HQ2,” Hannah Jones, senior economic analyst at Realtor.com, told MarketWatch.

She noted that demand for midpriced homes, listed at between $300,000 and $750,000 in particular, increased, which meant that buyers were finding fewer affordable homes for sale in the immediate aftermath of the HQ2 announcement.

“Home sales picked up directly after the announcement,” Jones added, “but limited affordable inventory stifled sales growth. Sale prices climbed over the year following the announcement.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

43 Responses to Tech’s outsized impact on real estate speculation

  1. Chicago says:

    Frist

  2. Phoenix says:

    Teacher: Your assignment class, is to be a diplomat and try to come to an agreement with your opponent.

    I’m sure this went over well. At least Xi knows who his enemy is.

    During a press conference in the wake of a meeting designed to smooth frayed US-China relations, Biden was asked whether he stood by remarks in June in which he described Xi as a “dictator.”

    “Look, he is. He’s a dictator in the sense that he’s a guy who runs a country that is a communist country that’s based on a form of government totally different than ours,” Biden said.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    “And so,” she added, “while the announcement had a short-term impact, it certainly isn’t the reason [that] home prices are as expensive as they are in the county.”

    So, if you want a summary of all the speculation raised in the link above, here’s the conclusion. It bumped prices in the area temporarily and low inventory is the current reason for higher prices.

    As for our area within the gravitational pull of Gotham City, if the FED pauses or even drops rates a smidgen, the 30 yr. rate follows and you’ll need a wrist band to get into an open house. UNLESS, the fence sellers decide to jump into the mosh pit themselves and inventory spikes giving potential buyers a long-awaited advantage. Either way, current prices are at a baseline and certainly aren’t going to go down. Chubby Mary Muppet will get her price, regardless of the body odor aroma and wet dog smell.

  4. Very Stable Genius says:

    This is the key issue. Everything else a distraction.
    Involvement in Ukraine was a massive mistake

    Phoenix says:
    November 16, 2023 at 6:44 am
    Teacher: Your assignment class, is to be a diplomat and try to come to an agreement with your opponent.

    I’m sure this went over well. At least Xi knows who his enemy is.

    During a press conference in the wake of a meeting designed to smooth frayed US-China relations, Biden was asked whether he stood by remarks in June in which he described Xi as a “dictator.”

    “Look, he is. He’s a dictator in the sense that he’s a guy who runs a country that is a communist country that’s based on a form of government totally different than ours,” Biden said.

  5. grim says:

    30y has a 7 handle, people are jumping for joy.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Jobless claims up higher than expected.

  7. Hold my beer says:

    We went to Texas Roadhouse last night. Was a 35 minute wait to get seats. On a Wednesday. Was still a line out the door when we finished and the take out was getting an order every minute or 2.

  8. TraitorJoe says:

    Bama state dept orchestrated a coup. Bidens and the insiders went in and stole everything that wasn’t nailed down. Worked out great for them. Even got an impeachment hoax as a kicker.

  9. Libturd says:

    “Jobless claims up higher than expected.”

    The next dilemma for the financial markets. When does bad news stop being seen as good news?

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Was a 35 minute wait to get seats.

    Credit Card companies are dishing out applications like candy on Halloween. I receive two per week in the mail. Charge it and enjoy! Forget the 40K in debt with the 22% interest rate, enjoy life!! We all deserve it! And thank G0d for those stretch pants that look like jeans, no one will ever know how much weight we’ve gained.

  11. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    There was a guy eating there who was so big he couldn’t fit in a booth. He was sitting on a chair in the aisle at the end of the table. He was about as wide as the end of the table. That poor chair.

  12. Juice Box says:

    There was an immediate bump to real estate prices in Queens below 44th drive when Amazon announced they were even considering that location. Loads and loads of news stories about it back then. I bet many people lost money speculating on apartment flips they were attempting at the time.

  13. Very Stable Genius says:

    was he wearing a maga hat?

    Hold my beer says:
    November 16, 2023 at 9:24 am
    Fast

    There was a guy eating there who was so big he couldn’t fit in a booth. He was sitting on a chair in the aisle at the end of the table. He was about as wide as the end of the table. That poor chair.

  14. Phoenix says:

    HMB
    Boomers are dripping with grease and cash.

    They aren’t called the locust generation for no reason.

    Just read an article about a guy complaining about his diabetes and Ozempic.

    Jeez he was almost 80 and weighed over an eighth of a ton. Maybe too many trips to Texas Roadhouse?

  15. Libturd says:

    Was he doing the Jardiance Dance?

  16. Phoenix says:

    Surprise, surprise.
    Another that lies.
    So when we gonna prosecute?

    Tiger Woods’ ex-girlfriend Erica Herman has admitted she was never the victim of sexual abuse by the golfer as she dropped legal action against him.

  17. Phoenix says:

    I weigh an 8th ton.

    I eat like a famished pig.

    I want Ozempic @ 900 per month paid for by Medicare.

    I am Boomer, hear me roar, cause I am too big to ignore.

    Thanks kids, for paying into a system you will never see one thin dime in return.

  18. Phoenix says:

    Of course they had a gun, you can’t tow that kind of valuable load and not be able to protect yourself. Warren vs District of Columbia says the police have no duty to protect you. Haha.

    New Jersey State Police conducted a commercial vehicle inspection of a truck towing a trailer on Route 78 in Alpha on Monday, Nov. 13, Warren County Prosecutor James L. Pfeiffer said in a release alongside local officials.

    The inspection turned up 179 pounds of marijuana, as well as a loaded handgun and large capacity magazine, Pfeiffer said.

  19. leftwing says:

    “…and you’ll need a wrist band to get into an open house…”

    You are pure gold.

  20. leftwing says:

    “I am Boomer, hear me roar, cause I am too big to ignore. Thanks kids, for paying into a system you will never see one thin dime in return.”

    Hey, it was a bunch of weak willed, feeble minded liberals who indebted upcoming generations to the tune of trillions of dollars and created the currently fucked housing market for them in a vain attempt to fight natural selection in 2020 so that some fat-ass grandmas and grandpas who demonstrated little self control over seven decades could draw 32 months more of breath…

    Totally worth that trade-off, huh?

    Rather than just doing our normal best?

    Imagine the release of wealth and housing stock in the counterfactual….

    So worth shutting the country down /s

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    There was a guy eating there who was so big he couldn’t fit in a booth.

    Was he sweating gravy? Does he cover two time zones?

  22. Very Stable Genius says:

    70 yr old FDIC chairman harassing, discriminating, attacking, blocking, subjugating women for decades. Millions paid in settlements.

    And boomers maga comments in WSJ all supporting him.

  23. leftwing says:

    Guess some animals are more equal than others….

    “Notably, Berkshire omitted one or more holdings from its public portfolio update and requested the SEC treat them as confidential for now. Buffett and his team asked for and received the same discretion when they were building stakes in Chevron, Verizon, and Marsh & McLennan in 2020, as they feared disclosing the incomplete wagers would drive up the stocks’ prices and increase their cost bases.”

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-secret-stock-sales-gm-q3-portfolio-2023-11

  24. Phoenix says:

    VSG

    I love the picture with the desk nameplate where it says ” The Honorable” over his name.

    What makes him “honorable?” Please do tell?

    Should we call him “Lord?” Maybe that would be better.

  25. Phoenix says:

    Lw,
    In America, they are sir.

    That “all men are created equal” is probably the biggest gaslighting statement ever written in history.

  26. Phoenix says:

    ther way, current prices are at a baseline and certainly aren’t going to go down. Chubby Mary Muppet will get her price, regardless of the body odor aroma and wet dog smell.

    Last laugh is on her.

    She will outlive you by an average of 8 years. 10 if she is a librarian, teacher, or local town permit stamper.

    Must be all of those “dirty jobs” Mike Rowe told you to do you muppet.

  27. BRT says:

    Warren really leverages that innocent grandpa schtick

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    Maga Boomer… great name. It’s like a super hero or sumtin.

  29. BRT says:

    What is a maga boomer?

  30. No One says:

    I was talking to a guy who builds/repairs pools for a resurfacing job on my pool in FL. He immigrated from Equador, his wife was from Brazil. Real success story, I can tell he’s making money with his business, complained about how hard it is to find people willing to work. Everyone in the pool business has more jobs than they can take, limited by people. Back in 2010 he had a pile of savings by being thrifty in that housing boom, and then smartly bought 7 post-crash houses and fixed them up for renting. Sad story about how he tried to convince his stepson to go to work for him, create a career for himself, but the kid just wants to rent a room, get a part time menial job, and play video games and smoke pot. He kicked him out of the house after he turned 18, but the mom still facilitates his loser lifestyle. Also told a story of how embarrassed his 13 year old son is to be picked up/dropped off in his company’s pool work van instead of the other kids’ parents’ Lexus SUVs. Told his kids that he doesn’t have time for a fancy car of his own, he’s always working, and why not save that extra car money and invest for the future. My wife and I tried to cheer him up, that these kids will eventually listen/learn from him.

  31. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    The guy had head fat. When you have rolls on the back of your head that is impressive.

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    Beer,

    I believe they call it ass neck. The chicks love it!

  33. chicagofinance says:

    Interesting……. I get nothing in the mail anymore…. it stopped earlier this year. The only thing now is high interest deposit teasers, but even those have stopped recently.

    Fast Eddie says:
    November 16, 2023 at 9:02 am
    Was a 35 minute wait to get seats.

    Credit Card companies are dishing out applications like candy on Halloween. I receive two per week in the mail. Charge it and enjoy! Forget the 40K in debt with the 22% interest rate, enjoy life!! We all deserve it! And thank G0d for those stretch pants that look like jeans, no one will ever know how much weight we’ve gained.

  34. chicagofinance says:

    I remember Arthur’s in Hoboken 30 years ago. Table of 4. Probably 1200 lbs. Steak, potatoes, head of lettuce, liter of beer. Chain smoking. Each with redder checks than the other.

    Hold my beer says:
    November 16, 2023 at 9:24 am
    Fast

    There was a guy eating there who was so big he couldn’t fit in a booth. He was sitting on a chair in the aisle at the end of the table. He was about as wide as the end of the table. That poor chair.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    You ain’t fat…. you ain’t nothin’

    https://youtu.be/t2mU6USTBRE?si=_CUI-6ODiDZ5GWhB

  36. BRT says:

    No One,

    I’m a running joke at the school because my car doesn’t have paint on it. I had to actually jack up my car this morning at Quick Check because the undercard shield broke and was dragging. They all drive Lexuses and Beamers. I couldn’t care less about what they think. I paid $16k for the car brand new, and it has 275k miles on it and still going strong. Meanwhile, they are sitting around wondering why they can’t afford a home. It’s all relative. Dude owns 7 homes, they own a fancy car. I’d rather be the pool cleaner.

  37. Boomer Remover says:

    I remember Arthur’s. Those pickles were amazing. I remember finishing a GIANT ARSE plate of steak just swimming in grease. No social media or smart phones to speak of.

    Eddie, how many more years do I have to endure hearing my up to her [expletive] eyeballs, couldn’t rub a few thousand together SIL describe me as cheap or stingy? Asking for a friend.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    Boomer,

    Eddie, how many more years do I have to endure hearing my up to her [expletive] eyeballs, couldn’t rub a few thousand together SIL describe me as cheap or stingy? Asking for a friend.

    You need to double and triple down here. Look and act as homeless as possible. Whenever you know you’ll be in her presence, do the following: Wear 2nd hand thrift clothing teetering on rags and make sure they’re ill-fitting; cup o’ soups when hosting, no heat on in the winter, no A/C in the summer when at your place. Use Bard or ChatGPT, etc. to create a hard luck story where a can’t lose investment actually lost. Explain how it was the equivalent of the maiden voyage of the Titanic… an unsinkable situation that sunk and as a result, you’re trying to get back on your feet. Offer a bologna sandwich on Wonder bread and a squeeze of yellow mustard… non-spicy, of course.

    Get a 2nd hand charcoal-burning grill off of Craigslist, never been cleaned and invite her over. Let it be known that everyone can get either one hot dog or one hamburger. Potato salad will come from Aldi’s or Lidl and no-name chips in a plastic bowl for snacks. Perhaps some Bud Light in a cooler because they can’t give that shit away. Tap water as the non-alcohol option.

    Think, be creative, blow her mind, show some tears. Smear a touch of plum rouge under your eyes to look like you haven’t slept well lately. Lose 15 lbs. even if you don’t need to just for greater effect.

  39. BRT says:

    Have you seen Blinken’s face when Biden took questions about Xi being a dictator? This dude hates his job.

    https://twitter.com/jason_howerton/status/1725254297552933177

  40. 3b says:

    BRT: Well we are going to get some Panda s back! I am sure that alone in Biden’s mind made the meeting a success.

  41. leftwing says:

    LOL. Need the Biden team to negotiate the next major M&A deal.

    Pandas are fucking tops, ya know….

    And I thought the DJT crew were the clown car…it just keeps getting better.

  42. Juice Box says:

    Blinken has more air miles than Taylor Swift.

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