Uh oh…

From NJ.com:

New listings of home sales spiked 72% in this N.J. county. Latest rankings by county.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

78 Responses to Uh oh…

  1. Hold my beer says:

    First

  2. Old realtor says:

    Amused by yesterday’s discussion of development in NJ. So many conservatives/libertarians arguing against development. I thought you guys were pro business and anti nanny state. You sounded like a bunch of NIMBY liberals.

  3. Very Stable Genius says:

    Maga’s finest

    Son ‘decapitates his father,’ 68, and brandishes his severed head during gruesome 14-minute long anti-Biden YouTube rant.
    Jan 31, 2024 at 6:58 AM EST

    Justin Mohn, who is from Levittown, Pennsylvania, was taken into custody on Tuesday after he posted about killing his father on YouTube. In the video, he blamed President Joe Biden and the federal government for a so-called “war” declared on American citizens.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    Old Realtor,

    There’s way too much construction going on. And it’s not just single family homes, it’s stacks of boxes on top of each other. Perhaps this is a Libertarian trait? Plowing acres of land and stuffing as many cardboard boxes as possible into every square foot doesn’t appeal to me.

  5. 3b says:

    Old: Speaking for myself, I just pointed out that much of Bergen Co is fully developed, and listed multiple towns where there is simply no land left to build single family houses. As for the apartment construction, I have no issues with that, simply pointing out that much of it is being done on sites that were commercial, and or busy streets. If there was no demand for commercial then the property owner has the right to build apartments. How many, how dense is another question. That said, these developments are going to increase traffic and congestion . I don’t know if you have seen the apartment construction on Kinderkamack in Emerson, but when occupied that will be a traffic nightmare. When you mention widening streets and installing more traffic lights, people go hysterical and say no , we will become just like NYC.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good morning, CFOs. United Parcel Service said it plans to shed about 12,000 jobs this year and mandated staff work from offices five days a week starting March 4, as the package-delivery giant seeks to boost productivity amid a protracted slowdown in business.

    The cuts are primarily targeted at management staff as well as contract workers, UPS executives said Tuesday, adding that those jobs aren’t likely to return even when parcel volumes rebound. The company has around 85,000 workers in management.

    UPS has about 495,000 employees worldwide, most of whom work in union roles in the U.S. and handle or transport packages. Union workers aren’t affected by the cuts announced Tuesday.

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    WFH slowly dying …

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I will always be against over development….IDGAF. Quality over quantity. NIMBY for the win!! Go overdevelop places that are already cities. Built it higher in paterson/newark/passaic.

  9. D-FENS says:

    It’s a perk…we setup full WFH desks and give $500 to new hires to buy WFH equipment. It’s the difference between getting a talented employee or losing them to a competing company now.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 31, 2024 at 9:07 am
    WFH slowly dying …

  10. D-FENS says:

    Chitt…I wouldn’t take a job that didn’t offer it. Seem dumb to drive to the office to get on a teams meeting and work with people around the globe when you can do it anywhere. I don’t need people to write code in an office building when they can do it from anywhere whenever they want.

  11. 3b says:

    DFens: My company just confirmed two weeks ago, that WFH is continuing, no plans to change it. One day a month in the office is all that is required. They let the leases expire on 3 regional offices, and will be closing other offices as the leases come up for renewal. As said here multiple times, hybrid is the way many companies have gone, 2 to 3 days in the office, the rest at home. There was an article in the WSJ yesterday that noted even trophy office buildings ( the ones with all the amenities) are starting to see rent decreases. If and when we have a recession there will be more office space dumped as well as people. WFH is not going away.

  12. Chicago says:

    Ten 396. ??!!!!

  13. grim says:

    Shorting every company that mandates RTO is probably a good strategy for 2024. Bonus points if they are dumb enough to make a video about it, and it’s so bad that it leaks.

  14. Phoenix says:

    Boomer beware:

    Very Stable Genius says:
    January 31, 2024 at 8:09 am
    Maga’s finest

    Son ‘decapitates his father,’ 68, and brandishes his severed head during gruesome 14-minute long anti-Biden YouTube rant.
    Jan 31, 2024 at 6:58 AM EST

  15. grim says:

    ADP at 107k

  16. BRT says:

    the roads in Bergen county can’t handle additional growth. You can try to fix it, but this is NJ. A 6 month project can get dragged out for 25 years. As for NIBMYism, it ain’t my backyard. I moved out long ago and vowed never to go back. On my last visit, I don’t even want to visit anymore. Be my guest, build yourself into hell. Just don’t come complaining afterwards.

  17. Juice Box says:

    I am in the office today, bumped into our new CEO as well getting breakfast.

    I have finished my call with Hyderabad and will probably have lunch here. I have a follow up call with a contractor in Austria. He is British but has relocated to the Arlberg and is busy getting freshies every day. By two PM our office will be a ghost town as everyone leaves early aka “coffee badging” except for a bunch of accounts receivable people who’s boss is a dinosaur.

    We have people on our team in the USA from all time zones as well as Europe and India.
    My boss is Mountain Time, and comes in every three months. When I leave here today I won’t be back in until Tuesday. We can and do survive without the office space. I haven’t found out yet when the lease is up but you can bet we won’t be expanding square footage for another floor of empty desks that is for sure.

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Writing is on the wall…don’t hate the messenger.

    “The Companies Calling Workers Back to the Office Five Days a Week
    UPS, Boeing and other employers insist on full-time attendance as some bosses lose patience with remote work”

    https://www.wsj.com/business/the-companies-calling-workers-back-to-the-office-five-days-a-week-bfd5f95a?mod=hp_lead_pos5

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Of course workers love to work from home….who wouldn’t. You basically get paid to do wtf you want. Dream on if you think this will continue at a high level.

    You know who WFH sucks for? Management and owners….guess who calls the shots? Only a matter of time…WFH was always born out of a goldilocks employment cycle that will never last long-term.

  20. Libturd says:

    My team, has been work from home since the start of Covid. Once per year, my team gets together in a Panera or similar to get lunch and shoot the shit. Very little work is discussed. We have twice weekly team meetings online during our busy season and once per month the remainder of the year. I meet with my superior, who lives in Ohio and is also a permanent WFH twice per month online. Most of these meetings last ten minutes. Occasionally fifteen.

    My point here, and Grim gets it, is that going to the office is a massive waste of potential time that could be spent working. Of course, that’s ignoring the additional massive costs the commuter must pay and the outrageous expense a desk in Manhattan costs to occupy.

    But listen to the inner city school teacher who believed pancakes in a can would change the world.

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know who doesn’t give a f/k….the people paying you.

    “My point here, and Grim gets it, is that going to the office is a massive waste of potential time that could be spent working. Of course, that’s ignoring the additional massive costs the commuter must pay and the outrageous expense a desk in Manhattan costs to occupy.”

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one wants to run a team of off-site employees….esp if the employees are majority new to the job. You people only see it through your own biased eyes…not through management/ownership. No one wants to pay someone top dollar to sit at home…it boils their blood. They feel like the worker is getting over on them. Understand this….it’s not about what is good for the worker and never will be.

  23. Phoenix says:

    GP,

    Teachers were WFH during Covid. I’m sure plenty liked it. Kids did suffer, however.

    But really you aren’t WFH because parents need to work, and since they pay taxes, they will demand what they want. Plus being at work is better for the children. Probably better for some of the mouthpieces spouting the benefits of WFH, which more than anything benefits them financially. Most don’t get reimbursed for travel to work, so that is an expense. Claiming a tax write off for part of the house is another benefit. If teachers could work from home I am sure plenty would love to sign up for it as long as the bennies and salary didn’t change.

    WFH is good for some jobs. There are some where you don’t need to be there. Or where your employees are outsourced to third world countries so they can profit more by using cheap labor or even children as workers. So like anything it has a place, just not for everything. It can save on fuel, traffic, the environment. But just like UPS, a place where there the Chief to Indian Ratio is approx. 1/5, you can occasionally lop off some Chief heads, but you still need the grunt aka slave labor to do the actual work.

    AI will probably, at some point, pick and choose what Chiefs are going to be knee capped in the future.

  24. Libturd says:

    Commercial space in New York costs about $75 per square foot. The plebes require about 100 each. Managers with offices about 200 each. Head honchos 400 each. An office of 200 (like mine used to be) costs nearly a million a month.

    https://www.curbed.com/article/nyc-office-real-estate-rechler-rxr-project-kodak.html

  25. Phoenix says:

    Libturd says:
    January 31, 2024 at 11:01 am
    Commercial space in New York costs about $75 per square foot. The plebes require about 100 each. Managers with offices about 200 each. Head honchos 400 each. An office of 200 (like mine used to be) costs nearly a million a month.

    Don’t you write that off anyway?

  26. Libturd says:

    People use the excuse of write offs too liberally. Sure, some is written off, but probably no more than a third at best. Probably less. Though, this is not my area of expertise. All I know is that a million per month can buy an awful lot of pancake batter, Bitcoin and time with a financial advisor. Heck, you could build an entire home out of tiger wood.

  27. 3b says:

    As per the WSJ article 82 percent of companies offer some form of WFH. I believe that says it all.

  28. Libturd says:

    10-Yr Bond
    3.9500

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You don’t get it by now? WFH is tied to the unemployment rate. Guess where massive layoffs are occurring….in the sweet wfh white collar fields. Hmmm…wonder why. If layoffs are happening at that level with this unemployment rate, it’s over for WFH whitecollar.

    3b says:
    January 31, 2024 at 11:12 am
    As per the WSJ article 82 percent of companies offer some form of WFH. I believe that says it all.

  30. OC1 says:

    “Amused by yesterday’s discussion of development in NJ. So many conservatives/libertarians arguing against development. I thought you guys were pro business and anti nanny state. You sounded like a bunch of NIMBY liberals.”

    Scratch a conservative, find a socialist!

  31. 3b says:

    OC1 : Once could easily say scratch a Democrat/ Progressive , and find a Conservative if their financial interests/ way of life is negatively impacted.

  32. 3b says:

    Lib: That was a sobering article you linked.

  33. leftwing says:

    “Ten 396. ??!!!!”…..”ADP at 107k”

    Fed day too ba-beeee!

    Out of half of my VIX overnight, little over 100%….going to let the rest ride until around 1:50p….if higher from here will likely hold through the presser as JPow seems to always fuck up a good written statement with spoken words…totally contrary to normalcy, Fed days, statements, and pressers usually subtract vol from the market.

    The statement and actions are set already based on how the Fed operates these days…that ADP – notorously not predictive and not a key Fed criterion – is making the ten and market expectations move is a false flag….whatever JPow has written down as of 8a this morning did not change at 8:16a this morning…

    Fun times.

  34. Phoenix says:

    Poor Mr Rechler.

    I’m sure he is going broke. Or just going to give his losing bet back to the bank where eejits like Obama will bail them out because they are “too big to fail.

    Privatize the gains, socialize the losses. His gamble becomes my tax bill

    Go suck a D.

    “So Rechler told the lender that he intended to give 61 Broadway back. This is where the real-estate industry’s distress could start to spread to the financial system.”

  35. Phoenix says:

    Don’t worry. Us W-2 wage slaves got it covered. I’m sure Pumpy won’t mind ponying up a few more bucks as well.

    Chicago says:
    January 31, 2024 at 11:53 am
    Move along. Nothing to see here.
    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1752705616873955376?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

  36. Phoenix says:

    Mabye the poor Mr Rechler can claim”

    Force Majeure. Worked for Donald Trump.

  37. Phoenix says:

    “I’m not consenting to a photo.” Cop says, you don’t have to. Hehe. Photo? Dude you are on TikTok, Reddit, and everywhere else. Except Disney property, where you will never step foot in again.

    Disney is supposed to be a happy place, where you follow the rules and not assault people. F around, Find out.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/1afhtzd/man_arrested_in_disney_land_in_front_of_his/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

  38. Libturd says:

    It’s kind of a mixed bag for me. Growing up in Central Jersey, we would drive out to Lynbrook to see my Grandmother and Uncle about every other month. I was always amazed about the density of housing among the Staten Island Expressway and the Belt Parkway and the resulting traffic. I recall my dad complaining to no end about how bad it was getting and this was in the late 70s. The entire trip was about forty five miles. Unfortunately, it would take a minimum of two hours and quite often three to make the trip each way. My mom would always remind us why we left the Island as we meandered through Brooklyn and Queens at about ten miles per hour.

    When we moved to East Brunswick, from Merrick, Long Island in 1975, it was a mix of retail (Route 18), single-family housing (developments) and there was a large amount of farmland still in operation. The northwestern portion of town was mostly undeveloped forest. By the time I left East Brunswick the farms, with their amazing farmstands were all turned into townhomes and condos. Not an inch of developable space remained. The school system was highly regarded, so the town became very popular for a lot of the new upper middle class. There was a huge influx of Indian an Asian families that valued education over all else too. In 13 years, the town filled up completely. Even the drive-in theatre was turned into condos. And the traffic on Route 18 became horrible. Fortunately for locals, there were plenty of alternatives to weave around the traditional hot spots. I recall, at one point, the traffic had gotten so bad that the town put in a series of cameras at all of the traffic signals on Route 18 and hired a full-time traffic controller who would manually adjust the lights. If you drive through East Brunswick on 18, you can clearly see the cameras on top of really tall telephone polls at each light.

    https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4636456,-74.404489,3a,37.5y,5.06h,99.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sVJKIXcfqgN6cHDAp0QCTBA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu

    So my only argument about for NIMBYism is the traffic. Personally, I don’t mind the larger population. It typically creates better restaurants and helps increase your property value as we run out of buildable space. And everyone deserves a chance to live wherever they want to. I’ll just keep escaping to where the traffic is less.

  39. Libturd says:

    3b, it’s a great read. I’m not so sure commercial office space is not in for their day of reckoning. I think the only that saves them is the lowering of the interest rates so all of that vacant space can be refinanced out to infinity.

  40. Libturd says:

    “whatever JPow has written down as of 8a this morning did not change at 8:16a this mornin”

    I thought the same exact thing after Google and Amazon spooked the market last night.

  41. Phoenix says:

    I guess he couldn’t satisfy her. Hehe.

    Newlywed Iowa teacher Cassidy Kraus, 24, admits to having sex with three students between the ages of 13 and 14 just months after her wedding and now faces 33 years behind bars

  42. Very Stable Genius says:

    “And everyone deserves a chance to live wherever they want to.”

    100% agreed. This is a free country. Rightwingers and Progressives want to live in liberal NY and NJ.

    Plenty of cheap space available in GOP controlled south, but nobody wants to live there.

  43. 3b says:

    Lib: With the exception of parts of northeast and northwest Bergen Co, most of Bergen Co is fully built out. Montvale was one of the last underdeveloped areas, with farms, and office parks mixed in near by. The farms are all gone now, condos and a mall with Wegmans and other stores. Some office parks sold and redeveloped as townhouses. The changes in the last decade in that town have been dramatic. The only development now is fill in areas on busy streets/ malls where they are building rental apartments. People can’t be accused of NIMBY, if there simply is little to no land available left to build on; specifically single family houses.

  44. 3b says:

    Lib : Even with lower interest rates it will be an issue, still have to be able to rent the space.

  45. OC1 says:

    I think we need some kind of “windfall profits” tax for houses.

    Allow some reasonable profit- maybe 1 or 2% above inflation. Any profit above that is taxed really high- like 80 or 90%.

    So if a town want’s to restrict new housing and keep their 1 acre lots it can. The homeowners can be as NIMBY as they want to preserve their quality of life.

    They just can’t reap huge financial gains from their NIMBYism.

  46. OC1 says:

    “With the exception of parts of northeast and northwest Bergen Co, most of Bergen Co is fully built out. ”

    You mean it is fully built out under the existing zoning rules.

  47. Phoenix says:

    Hey, I get it, she is really hot, but you can’t let a woman talk you into this. It’s amazing what some guys are willing to do for women.

    Oh, and in America, a woman that hot would be a “hot felon” and not spend a day in jail.

    Father Zhang Bo and his girlfriend Ye Chengchen were sentenced to death in 2021 over the fatal falls of the two children from the 15th floor of a residential tower in southwest China’s Chongqing, in a case that shocked the country.

    Zhang, who was the father of the two children, had begun an affair with Ye, who was initially unaware he was married and had children.

    She then urged Zhang to kill his two children, which she ‘regarded as obstacles’ to their getting married and a ‘burden on their future life together’, the Chongqing No. 5 Intermediate People’s Court said in a statement.

  48. 3b says:

    OC1: I suggest you take a drive through the multiple towns I mentioned yesterday, and tell me where you are going to put more single family houses, on standard 50x 100 lots.

  49. Phoenix says:

    3b says:
    January 31, 2024 at 1:50 pm
    OC1: I suggest you take a drive through the multiple towns I mentioned yesterday, and tell me where you are going to put more single family houses, on standard 50x 100 lots.

    Should be easy enough to figure out just by looking at a Google Map satellite image.

  50. 3b says:

    Phoenix: More effective if one would actually drive through the towns and see, better yet, get out of the car and actually walk through the town, go up and down blocks.

  51. OC1 says:

    “I suggest you take a drive through the multiple towns I mentioned yesterday, and tell me where you are going to put more single family houses, on standard 50x 100 lots.”

    How about row houses?

  52. OC1 says:

    How about an ADU in the back yard?

  53. OC1 says:

    Why do they have to be single family houses? Why not a multi with a rental unit on the top floor?

  54. Libturd says:

    The progressive solution, is to build ADUs or Accessory Dwelling Units on the current property. A lot of people are doing this in Montclair and I think they passed an ordinance encouraging it. In most cases, people build carriage houses above their garages. Unfortunately, it seems to do nothing to curtail the forever rising rents. People are desperate to live in certain places.

    As someone who travels a lot. There are so many cheaper places to live where you can get SO MUCH MORE. What I don’t really get is people’s desire to die where they were born. Heck, you should see the reaction when I tell people I want to move to the Las Vegas valley. You would think I was telling them I’m jumping off the George Washington Bridge.

    Now check this out.

    I just saw a very average 4 bedroom home in what most people consider the best area in the valley to live.

    https://www.vegasparadisehomes.com/property-search/detail/95/2554676/10345-hunters-meadow-ave-las-vegas-nv-89144/?listingid=11267136&searchid=3014690&alertid=158386961&sentfrom=listingalert&userid=4652426

    My current 3BR x 1.5B 2,200 sq. ft. home with flooding backyard will sell for approximately 1 million dollars. I still owe a little over 300K on it. So after the sale and commission, I can move into the Vegas home without a mortgage. My current taxes are 20K here, compared with $3,200 there, though there’s no $65/month HOA. Then again, I spend $90 a month on tolls here and there are none there. Last year, with some serious medical deductions, I still paid NJ 40K for the privilege of living and working here. In Las Vegas, there is no state income tax. Car registration? It costs less than half. Car insurance is cheaper too. And rust isn’t an issue since it rarely rains, neither is road salt since it doesn’t snow. Need home renovations done? They are 1/3rd to half what they cost to do here. By simply moving my family to where housing does not cost a premium due to lack of land and development, I easily save $50K per year. That’s a hell of a lot of scratch. For a lot more home, with a pool, an extra bedroom and 2 more full bathrooms. The community is safer too. And it’s gated, so no stolen cars nor need for a ring doorbell and that monthly bill. Great restaurants. You can drive from one end of the valley to the other in thirty minutes since there’s no traffic. Great shows. Amazing parks and not so great schools except in Summerlin and Green Valley where this house happens to be. You kind of have to be crazy to stay here, no?

  55. 3b says:

    OC1: The towns I mentioned yesterday, all have apartments already, and some I noted are building more. One I noted yesterday, the apartments ( 1 and 2 bedrooms) was completed late Fall of last year. My towns housing stock is 1/3 rental garden apartments, that were built after WW 2. So there are many towns who have apartments, and or are building more. Perhaps, it’s more the Franklin Lakes, Allendale, Wyckoff, Ramsey, Norwood, Northvale, and of course Alpine that need to build more.

  56. Fast Eddie says:

    There are so many cheaper places to live where you can get SO MUCH MORE.

    Not in the red states. VSG said people don’t want to live there because there’s no $4,000 suits or people with personal chefs! And where would people shop for their Peter Cardins?

  57. 3b says:

    OC1; No problem with ADU in backyard, for a family member.

  58. 3b says:

    Fast: Who is Peter Cardin?

  59. Hold my beer says:

    Libturd

    Check this one out. Very nice area. Good schools. Close to a huge lake. 20 minutes from where the Rangers and Cowboys play.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7051-Miramar-Grand-Prairie-TX-75054/83786170_zpid/

  60. Phoenix says:

    Is that the style for the area?

    Hold my beer says:
    January 31, 2024 at 3:26 pm
    Libturd

    Check this one out. Very nice area. Good schools. Close to a huge lake. 20 minutes from where the Rangers and Cowboys play.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7051-Miramar-Grand-Prairie-TX-75054/83786170_zpid/

  61. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    That’s the style for most Texas houses built in the last 15 or so years.

    Basements are also extremely rare in the area.

  62. Fast Eddie says:

    Fast: Who is Peter Cardin?

    It’s a slang name the Chardonnay crowd uses to describe a particular fashion brand near and dear to their hearts.

  63. Libturd says:

    And yes. BTW, seeing the Cowboys is hardly an enticement. :P I’ve been to Texas, it’s no wonder that it is growing exponentially. And I’m not just talking about the immigrants.

    50K a year!

  64. Libturd says:

    Where’s the swimming pool?

  65. Phoenix says:

    We have investigated ourselves and determined that we are innocent. Nothing to see here.

    The New Mexico Justice Department says it will not criminally prosecute three police officers who went to the wrong house when responding to a call last year and fatally shot the armed homeowner as he opened the door.

  66. OC1 says:

    Lib-

    If you move to Vegas, you’ll stop bitching about NJ taxes and traffic and start bitching about the summer heat, electric bills for air conditioning, and the tourists. ;)

  67. Libturd says:

    Nah. I’ve been going out there 2 to 4 times a year since I was 17 years old. I know the negatives like the back of my hand. Yes, energy will cost you more. Hence the swimming pool. I love the dry heat btw. Can’t stand humidity. The tourists are what keep my taxes paid. Plus, they keep to the strip.

  68. 3b says:

    Fast: Maybe you mean Pierre Cardin? If yes yes, you are certainly dating yourself!

  69. 3b says:

    Lib: Our Governor told you if taxes are an issue, then NJ is not for you. So time for you to go.

  70. Hold my beer says:

    Libturd

    That house is across the street from a 7,700 acre lake. No need for a pool. Just watch out for the bass boats

  71. LAX says:

    4:04 don’t forget the laaaaaadies

  72. Libturd says:

    Yes. The bitchez and hoes(sp.).

  73. LAX says:

    7:17 they are very tax friendly. Man I’m happy here.
    But retire in place? That was for Boomers.

    Besides a lot of people want to end up where their kids are.
    That probably drives NJ sales more than many places. Where are the kids?

  74. Boomer Remover says:

    Pumpkin you keep pushing this negative work from home narrative.

    I have been working from home since 8:15AM, it’s 7:59PM now. Yesterday I drove a nearly four hour conference call. I am helping my client to package and sell a high eight figure entertainment deal… from home… in my sweatpants.

    Dumb grin.

    My wife is in the other home office is helping develop digital learning solutions for a SaaS company. We are both working our asses off, and with this sale support we really are working more than usual.

    Your do nothing from home narrative is just that. We’re giving you example after example of functional wfh arrangements, and you choose to ignore them.

    My BIL in law is in a bulge bracket bank. He commutes three of five days and says that he is much more productive at home. He says he spends until eleven AM winding down from the morning commute, then puts in a few hours and badges out.

    Anecdotally, I understand that post covid showing up by 9AM sharp is now also not mandatory, many come in and “clock in” in around 10:30.

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