From the MPA:
Mortgage rates see immediate relief after positive economic data
Mortgage rates fell this week, following positive economic data that suggests the Federal Reserve may ease up on interest rates later this year.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows a slight decrease in both 30-year and 15-year fixed rates. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.89% for the week ending July 11, down from 6.95% the previous week.
The 15-year FRM also saw a decrease, averaging 6.17%, down from 6.25% last week and 6.30% a year ago.
“Following June’s jobs report, which showed a cooling labor market, the 10-year Treasury yield decreased this week, and mortgage rates followed suit,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in the PMMS report.
Khater also pointed to a boost in housing inventory, including properties with price reductions, as a positive sign for potential buyers.
“Companies are slowing down their pace of hiring, which is the result that the Federal Reserve is looking for. Mortgage rates fell on the prospect of one or two Fed rate cuts this year,” added NerdWallet mortgage expert Holden Lewis.
While mortgage rates are down, affordability remains a concern. Rising shelter inflation, a key component tracked by the Fed, continues to put upward pressure on housing costs.
However, First American chief economist Mark Fleming is optimistic about a potential shift in Fed policy based on recent inflation data.
“The June CPI data is music to the Fed’s ears,” said Fleming, adding that a decline in shelter inflation, combined with other positive signs, increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, possibly followed by another by year-end.
This could be good news for homebuyers, as anticipation of lower rates is already influencing the market.
Despite the potential for lower rates, a recent Fannie Mae survey revealed a cautious outlook among homebuyers. A larger share of respondents believe both home prices and mortgage rates will rise in the coming year – up from 31% to 33%.
“If mortgage rates decline through the end of the year, as we currently forecast, we do think home sales activity will pick up, but progress on that front is likely to be slow due to the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand,” Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan said in a statement.
First
First
I’m the true Frist!
This might’ve been one of lowest inventories seasons I can remember.
No for sale signs anywhere. Prices significantly up.
Long term, real estate is a great investment
So a skinny math dweeb from rural Pennsylvania who had a gun obsession (was wearing a demolition ranch youtube t-shirt) tried to take out Trump and killed a spectator. Was a registered Republican but also donated to Biden in 2021 when he was only 17 years old.
Lots of trolling and conspiracy theory’s online now. Lets see how they spin this one.
Be verrry verrrry quiet I’m hunting fascists.
Jim,
My call was late, but it’s happening. Deflation is the real battle….esp with china trying to offload deflation to the rest of the world forcing the fed to lower rates to combat it.
“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a -0.1% month-over-month change, contrary to the expected +0.1% month-over-month increase. Yearly headline inflation has now fallen to 3% and is likely to decrease further due to a lag in rent and auto insurance prices. We now have deflation. Hooray!?
On the day of the June CPI announcement on July 11, there was approximately a 1% sell-off in the S&P 500, a 1.5% sell-off in the NASDAQ, and over a 3% sell-off in the leading big tech names.
In contrast, the Russell 2000 index, which consists of small-cap companies, saw a significant 5% rise. Most real estate stocks also experienced a notable increase as money rotated into lagging sectors and companies.”
Although, now I don’t expect to see a major drop in real estate in nj…maybe small correction or sideways in nj and then picks up 2025/2026 ….still way too much demand by millennials. So, not really sure you see deflation in housing. 2030s is when housing might deflate as supply of buyers starts to get more in line or outpaced by sellers.
Check it out, Jim. Deflation…
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/07/12/heres-the-deflation-breakdown-for-june-2024-in-one-chart.html
And remember…jim…..the fed will lower the rates to combat the deflation (like they did in 2020/21 to make my deflation call wrong) This cycle is still in play.
This might be on pt….2000 housing market all over again? Rotation from stocks to real estate?
Using Two Timelines To Become A Better Investor
Now use my two timelines process and think about investing. Here’s the example from above:
1) Investors have done well investing in stocks since 2022, especially big tech investors. The July 11 rotation out of big tech and into small caps and real estate means investors are hunting for laggards. We saw a similar move into real estate from internet stocks in 2000.
2) Public equities move quickly; physical real estate does not. Investors also want to preserve stock market gains. Therefore, hold onto your real estate now or buy before the rotation of capital pushes up prices further. By this time next year, the Fed Funds rate and mortgage rates could be down by 1%, thereby driving even more demand for real estate.
Of course, you or I could be wrong in our two-timeline thinking. But at least it forces us to try and continuously forecast the future. If a significant variable changes, we also change our forecasts.
I could see money bleeding out of magnificent 7 ai bubble into small cap stocks and real estate.
I’m grateful to hear that Vice President Trump is okay.
The guy dodged a bullet like Neo in the Matrix, he is invincible. God has anointed him, he has divine right. Pack it up dems, Trump won yesterday.
Grim: That picture of Trump with blood on his face and fist in the air with the American flag in the background is amazing, you could not get a better photo opportunity than that. I would not be surprised if the Trump team posts that side by side with a Biden photo from the debate where he looks lost.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 14, 2024 at 11:09 am
And remember…jim…..the fed will lower the rates to combat the deflation (like they did in 2020/21 to make my deflation call wrong) This cycle is still in play.
You fckin idiot, you predicted deflation two years ago, and it still has not happened. Are you that stupid????Anybody can make a prediction but it is not good for 100 years, you stated it already began over 2 years ago. Your a teacher????? God help us. We know your a Troll, but you look like a FOOL.
I still think he’s gonna lose. Fist pumping theatrics and allz.
At the Republican National Convention, the GOP plans to dig its heels into election fraud.
Nevada GOP Chairman Michael McDonald, who participated in a scheme to send fake electors to Washington D.C. to subvert the will of Nevada voters, will present Donald Trump with his nomination at the convention in Milwaukee next week.
McDonald, whose home was raided by the FBI in 2022, was charged in 2023 with tampering with and submitting falsified official documents, though a judge dismissed the case and ordered prosecutors to re-file in a different venue last month.
McDonald has chaired the Nevada Republican Party since 2012, and has repeatedly called the results of the 2020 election into question. His role at the convention stunned social media users, including one Biden campaign official.
“WOW. Donald Trump is going to be presented the nomination by the architect of NV’s scheme to steal the election — the same lies that inspired a mob to attack the United States Capitol to overthrow an election,” campaign spokesperson Ammar Moussa said in a post to X.
In this era of mass connectivity, how many people globally are aware of what happened yesterday in PA (less than 24 hours ago)? 5B? 6B?
Is it a higher portion of the 8B people who are alive out there?
Interesting how the Left is starting to plant the seeds of how to spin it…Dems pulled down all of Joe’s election ads…out of ‘respect’ you know….yeah, right, lol…for the last two years they have incessantly called the guy who just dodged assassination an ‘existential threat’….Not a good color to be wearing right now….
CBS is screaming for balance, unity, and de-escalation in the same regard…fucking joke…they (MSM) and their cohorts have again spent the last years fanning the flames of FUD and chucking log after larger log on that fire…
Now they backpedaling so hard they are going to have a cardiac event…would be funny if it weren’t so sad coming right on the heels of their embarrassing cover ups of Joe’s condition and the 180 degree position reversal they felt necessary to perform there…is there any shred of credibility whatsoever still remaining in MSM among the Left faithful?
Meanwhile, the Left in Congress (and their MSM cohorts) have already thrown the Secret Service under the bus, seems they are positioning this whole event as a ‘massive security failure’…ie, playing for the counterfactual…”we the Left don’t have any culpability here, if the Secret Service had only done their jobs correctly all of our incendiary language wouldn’t have mattered!”…the governing persons of your Party are essentially using the argument of a five year old, “he hit me first”….yeah, that’s going to play well in flyover undecided country…
Some real LOL moments as they try to make their points…The CBS correspondent on the scene (the male one) had some priceless quotes about all the danger he faced (it’s always all about them right?) emphasizing that “the attendees were packed in here shoulder to shoulder” and that DJT may need to stop doing these “large open air events” (yup, let’s shut him down for ‘security’ of course) except that the “mass scale of the crowds he draws” often requires outdoor venues…
[sound of a stereo needle being dragged across a record]….wait guys, for the last seven years those attendance and support numbers were all lies, right? Right?
How the Liberals on here lacking even a modicum of shame feel the ability to comment on this event is beyond me….except I guess as I’ve maintained on here all along for the better part of two decades that the depths of arrogance attached to Left knows no bounds…
Enjoy your Sunday guys.
There’s a lotta shit beyond you retard.
Listening to Trump incite violence, dismiss school shootings, and mock violence against democrats and other “vermin” in his words, color me shocked that Democrats aren’t clutching their pearls. You reap what you sow.
Furthermore because of Trump’s vast history of cheating and lying there are a whole lot of people who don’t even believe this carnival was real.
Left: CNN basically saying it’s Trump s own fault, what did he expect. Of course they won’t acknowledge they certainly have not helped the situation. It’s all been Trump is a threat to Democracy, so perhaps someone acted on that. It’s going to be interesting going forward to say the least.
Is Vince McMahon still on his payroll?
England-Spain is going to be decided on penalties
Not sure if it was an iPhone. National Security Letterperhaps to Tim Cook?
“We are working to get access to the phone,”
WFH jobs drying up
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2024/05/27/less-high-paying-work-from-home-jobs/73838325007/?tbref=hp
Grim,
I believe you are speaking tongue in cheek, but this:
God has anointed him, he has divine right.
If that were the case, God’s decisions on Uvalde and Charleston Church shootings are interesting.
Spain takes it home, and all of Europe is happy.
Left: CNN basically saying it’s Trump s own fault, what did he expect.
Do you have a link to this? I don’t don’t see anything like that on the CNN site.