From Newsweek:
Florida Housing Market Faces ‘Nightmare Scenarios’ as Deals Collapse
Florida homebuyers are backed out of deals to purchase properties at a record rate, according to a new report from real estate brokerage Redfin, as prices continue rising and mortgage rates aren’t budging.
In June, nearly 56,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in the Sunshine State, the equivalent of roughly 14.9 percent of all homes that went under contract that month. It’s the highest percentage of any June on record.
“We’re seeing nightmare scenarios where deals are getting canceled at the last minute for the most minute reasons,” Rafael Corrales, a Redfin Premier agent in Miami, said in a press release. In the coastal city, around 2,500 home purchases were canceled in June—about 17.6 percent of all homes that went under contract.
“Buyers often back out during the inspection period because they find something they don’t like, but affordability is really the underlying issue,” Corrales explained. “I don’t want my buyers to be surprised by all of the expenses that come with owning a home in Florida, so I advise them to proactively research the hefty costs of insurance, property taxes and HOA fees, in addition to the cost of their mortgage payment.”
…
Orlando, Florida, was the city with the highest percentage of home-purchase agreements canceled in June out of the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas analyzed by Redfin, for a total of 900—about 20.8 percent of all homes that went under contract that month.
It was followed by Jacksonville, Florida (20.5 percent), Tampa, Florida (20.5 percent), Las Vegas (20.2 percent) and San Antonio, Texas (19.9 percent).
First
I had 2 buyers back out after the inspection when I sold my Dad’s old place in FL. People were losing confidence even last summer. Glad I sold last July.
Debt doesn’t matter.
https://www.fxhedgers.com/p/a-painful-but-inevitable-return-to
Florida boom bust is a cyclical tradition that cannot be denied. What’s funny is people elsewhere always insist this time is different.
Does anyone else read 3b’s comments about Harris and wonder how she graduated high school, college, law school, became a prosecutor, elected attorney general, elected US Senator and vice president while being too stupid to breathe? She must be the luckiest woman on earth. Clearly there is no other explanation for her success.
Old realtor says:
July 29, 2024 at 9:01 am
It was my understanding that she was sleeping with her married boss. Does that explain it better for you? Its not what you know but who you do.
Juice: good subject for an article.
Normally, a borrower pays a premium for keeping the lender’s money for a longer period of time. All else being equal, term increases yield on debt and associated securities. Not so today, because Yellen is actively engaging in yield curve control, similar to what she did during her time as Federal Reserve Chair.
The rationale here is two-fold: shorter-term debt allows the treasury to take advantage of rate cuts (soon?) and—more importantly—many private market rates are based off of rates on Treasuries, especially the 10-year and 30-year.
Juice Box says:
July 29, 2024 at 8:39 am
Debt doesn’t matter.
https://www.fxhedgers.com/p/a-painful-but-inevitable-return-to
When I was in graduate school, the fellowship head tried to get me to participate in a collaboration with a professor in the Engineering department. This woman had her name on 20 papers in the past year coming out of the department. In my first meeting, I was a little put off. By the 2nd meeting, I realized this woman doesn’t even have an understanding of basic chemistry of physics. I talked to a few of my fellow grad students in engineering and they told me to GTFO. She was the girlfriend of the department head. He slapped her name on every paper . I read her PhD thesis and it was written so eloquently and detailed (it was very good stuff), yet she spoke broken English as she was from Argentina. I asked about that as well. They said, yeah, she dated her research advisor at the time. She was given tenure on the basis of, “she’s both a woman and a minority, we can increase the chances of our grants getting approved”. On paper this woman has a resume that would qualify her to become Dean or VP at Rutgers. Once you talk to her, you realize you wouldn’t let her do your laundry.
At least joe had a medical excuse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mwXwNMK8ug
My understanding is VP Harris wanted to work with Europe when she took over the VP office, specifically Northern Europe….Instead Biden made her role dealing with Illegal immigration. This was in March of 2021 at the beginning of the Biden administration.
She was given a tough job by the president and obviously has now failed miserably. Democrats now claim that Harris never held such a job, or really any other. Not true Biden gave her an important role (over her reservations), and it was to slow the flow of the illegal immigrants, to convince the countries south of the US specifically Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala to prevent their citizens and other migrants from getting to our southern border, addressing the “root causes of migration” with diplomacy and money. She failed folks. There is lots of chat online and in the news about this so called “border czar” title. Does it really matter? No the damage has been done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Joyp26ClaJI
My point here is sleepy Joe said in 2020 he was a one term president and he was in fact prepping Kamala.. It’s all out there. Biden tried to reimage her as a strong US diplomat. He sent here to the ASEAN summit in 2023 in his place to build a coalition to counter China, and well she barely spoke during the conference. She did one European security conference for Biden after Ukraine was invaded. That was a bust too the war is still going and will be for years to come.
Prior to being VP she did not take up really any international issues as Senator. I am not sure whatever she has done in the international scene. Based upon her last few years of schedules she has gravitated towards domestic issues and many times far left causes.
This time around I would rather vote for Antony Blinken, but as sleepy Joe said himself after he chose her to be VP and really the next Democratic candidate for president. Biden said after he chose here to be VP “little black and brown girls who so often feel overlooked and undervalued in their communities.”
So you have your role model now. If she gets in lets hope she does not send your kids off to fight and die in a now a forever war in Europe or even worse defending an island only 100 miles of the coast of mainland China.
Old: in my first job out of college I became a manager of a group of recent college grads that were all 2-3 years younger than me. In that group was a woman who went to SUNY Albany. The company I worked for was very intent on retaining her for the simple reason that the department had no diversity. She considered me a confidant and I was fair and supportive, but she was mediocre at best. She eventually moved on to a second tier MBA program, coincident with me matriculating at Chicago. I was supposed that she managed to muddle through, but even before she set foot on campus she was being invited to corporate events from many of the well known top 50 corporates of the day.
She was in her own bubble, none the wiser. I didn’t mind, because she was so nice, but strikingly underqualified.
Fast forward to today. She and I still remain in distant contact. She last month was named Chief People Officer/Head of HR for a major financial services company.
I reserve judgment, but very thoughtfully place this data point in my tool kit.
You can take umbrage with the attitudes of people that don’t agree with you, but at bottom is a difference of opinion. The facts are there for all to see.
Old realtor says:
July 29, 2024 at 9:01 am
Does anyone else read 3b’s comments about Harris and wonder how she graduated high school, college, law school, became a prosecutor, elected attorney general, elected US Senator and vice president while being too stupid to breathe? She must be the luckiest woman on earth. Clearly there is no other explanation for her success.
Jim,
That’s the best you can do? She must have been a hell of a lay. An affair with the mayor while she was a prosecutor got her to the vice presidency? That is one influential mayor.
Old: You are blinded by your hatred of Trump, which is understandable to a point. However, your rational that because of her educational background and accomplishments, she is qualified to be President is naive. I know people with impeccable educational credentials and impressive resume, and they are not all that smart or bright, amazing how they got where they did. My criticism of Harris is based on her performance as Vice President, which has been pathetic. You on the other hand refuse to acknowledge that.
BRT, you extrapolate that one thing and link Harris to it, and potentially to many women? I suspect a bit of Dunning Kruger effect in play here. While you may be a good teacher, I think generalizing examples to a broad number of people is really silly.
There have been great women in various organizations at various levels. Personally, I am fortunate to work with smart and hard working men and women, and there is mutual respect (definitely more than what is showcased on this blog).
SomeOne: of course there are great women in the workforce. I think the key is observing incompetence or simply mediocrity in a position of authority, and trying to fathom how is it possible. There can be complex analysis, but if your preference is cliche rules of thumb, then how about Occam’s Razor?
I’m not generalizing anything. I assess people’s intelligence for a living. Sorry, I’ve seen her speak for about 4 years now, there is nothing of substance there. I have tremendous respect for dozens of women I worked with. I can give you a laundry list of incompetent men I’ve worked with as well. You know who hates these women the most, the competent ones that earn their way.
You need to start thinking for yourself instead of letting the computer think for you. These were your same pundits about a month ago.
https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1816924782581150171
Now all of the sudden, she’s amazing. GTFO.
You know, not every argument has to boil down to, “maybe you are just misogynistic”. Maybe I’ll have my wife type out her opinion on here? Would you be more open to that?
re: “An affair with the mayor while she was a prosecutor got her to the vice presidency?”
At least get it right, it was after all only 30 years ago when the Speaker of the California Assembly Willie Brown gave her two no show jobs. State Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board and later to the California Medical Assistance Commission. All at the tender age of 29!!! paying like $150,000 a year in 1994!!! She took a leave of absence from the prosecutors office at the time but went back six months later and kept the other two paychecks.
Here is an LA Times article from the time period.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1994-11-29-mn-2787-story.html
She is where she is because she is first and foremost a party loyalist. The daughter of a Marist professor, she got on the gravy train and now is Nancy Pelosi’s hand picked successor to Joe Biden.
re: “Dunning Kruger”
Nah..Peter’s principle in full effect..
I don’t want Trump either folks……We just get two bad picks again…..
Maga nominated Trump and Pelosi selected Kamala…..
Take your pick only 100 days to go…..
Strong woman. My company is filled with them. All qualified for the job. It’s a Minnesota thing and supposedly goes back to their Dutch heritage. Even in the Netherlands, Woman lead almost 30% of their corporations. Our current leader is super qualified. Quite frankly, I could care less who leads my company if they are qualified and they perform well. That’s really it in a nutshell. And those falling behind Kamala? You are clearly biased. She is not a good choice and far from the best choice. Worst of all, she is too far Left. Ask her how well the bail reform she has championed has gone in California?
Peter principle or pecker principle? What are the odds she was jailing people for drugs while she was using herself? I bet they could have made a season of The Wire (S.F. Edition) about Kamala in her early years.
Original post about real estate downcycle in FL –
I know a few people who had been speculating on mid tier properties in FL.
It started out with the rush of people seeking homes in FL for remote work, or COVID had accelerated their retirements with big exits. Private equity made a lot of owners of fairly small businesses offers making them multi-millionaires, and a good number were ready to move to the gulf coast of FL. That explains some of the influx into my town.
There’s also a lot of money being made by tradespeople, drawing people to just relocate out of the North and to work in FL.
I wonder how deep the bust will be this time, and when it will happen, and whether there will be investment opportunities worth the trouble.
Real estate, unlike stocks, always seems to take a lot longer to correct in price than people think.
Lots of homes now sitting for months that 3 years ago would have been selling to multiple bids over offer.
There is a nearly identical house that is up for sale across the street and one property west of ours, in Montclair. The only real difference is central air and an extra tiny, but full bathroom on their third floor. They are listing it for $899K I would guess it will fetch 1.2. We’ll see if the market turned here.
BRT: It is amazing to me that some Democrats here are as blind in their loyalty as the MAGA people are to Trump. We have had 3 years plus of Harris, it’s all out there and clear to anyone who is competent. Up until a few weeks ago, no one in the Democratic establishment gave any serious thought to Harris for President. Now, just like the MAGA supporters they all fall into lockstep and say she is an excellent candidate and experienced and competent to run the country. We are to forget all we have seen these last few years , if not we are racists and misogynists. You must follow the party line and narrative. The Dems are just as scary as the MAGA nuts.
The market isn’t turning anywhere in the sphere of NYC. Expand it to Boston, as a matter of fact. The I-95 corridor is still red hot. There’s little for sale and no one is trading their 3.2% mortgage for 6.2% mortgage. And by the time the mortgages drop towards the lower fours if ever, the prices of houses will be at the current level or higher. It’s just the way it is. 1st time buyers are screwed unless they’re backed by family money. Speaking of which, the poor folks are even poorer now than at any time in decades. The last three plus years have decimated their chances. If guys like us who have some means and a resume to support us are aghast at the prices of everything, imagine what the lower end of the blue class are feeling.
I sold more of my builders stock today. I’ve sold some earlier this year. I’ve now taken out all of my initial investment and some of my profit. Might sell one of them out completely. That one is based in the south and its ops in Texas are in Austin area also has above industry average leverage.
Old realtor says:
July 29, 2024 at 9:57 am
Jim,
That’s the best you can do? She must have been a hell of a lay. An affair with the mayor while she was a prosecutor got her to the vice presidency? That is one influential mayor.
WOW , She did the mayor and Willie Brown. Great information, I guess it pays to be a good lay. Thanks for the info!
Jim, maga is so f’ing done. Sleep well.
Fast: Houses may be selling, but there is no volume, so that it is not good. Houses sitting in my town with a 7 handle, and one recently dropped the price 50k. Not that a 50k drop means all that much. Still some tear downs and rebuilds here and there, all in that”classic black and white farmhouse style.
Our new stove got delivered today. They pull the old one out from the wall and discover there isn’t a shut off valve on the gas line. WTF. Even old apartments built in the 50s and 60s has shut off valves on their stove gas lines. Now the stove is in our front room and we are having a plumber come over to install a shut off valve on the line.
Kamala is the perfect candidate for the lefts age of willful stupidity. She says somthing vapid and they can nod and laugh.
Party leaders tell them no one knew Joe was in decline so your votes don’t count they just nod.
Talk about saying dumb shit…Trump is king. Trump is also a spoiled rich asshole that blew through daddy’s millions, because he’s a “D”student.
Find another angle to attack from that one is a loser.
Two cycles in a row your party leaders choose your candidate behind closed doors. They care not what you think. Baaa
And Trump replaced the RNC with family members to ensure your votes won’t count either.
Pretty sure he’ll win the primary. How about Kamala? Just keep playing their fool. millions like you.
And if Trump didn’t win, he’ll claim he did anyway.
He’s all yours.
Beer what else did they miss in the building code handbook?
Juice.
That’s what I’m wondering.
Cost me $365 to have one installed.
We had to have a plumber come out when we replaced the washer. Builder had used really cheap shut off valves that got frozen. We now have heavy duty ones. Our hvac guy said he doesn’t like our builder. Now I see why.
Residential gas line pressure is about half a psi.
Not that I would recommend this for a second, but you could stop the gas flow with your finger tip.
If someone wasn’t standing over watching, a plumber would have just raw dogged that without shutting off the main. Always risky with old houses, you risk blowing the regulator. 10 minute job turns into half a day with PSEG coming out.
3b, the information sources are filtered. There are legitimate people that had no idea Biden was senile because whatever sites they are on, algorithms prevented them from seeing it for 3 straight years. If they have seen any of Harris and convinced themselves she’s a good candidate, they are straight up lying to themselves, which is probably worse. The real tell is this, when Joe fumbled the debate, every single person was forced to admit he’s gone and done for. Not a single person on this board even mentioned Harris as a replacement.
Consumers bounced back big in the second quarter, spending rose on cars, electronics, furniture, recreation, and food. And yet , the Fed plans to cut rates in September. I say the Fed should raise rates, not cut.
BRT: I think those people must have been living under a rock not to know Biden was declining these past 3 years. But, to your point perhaps if all your information comes from MSNBC /CNN or the 3 networks that might be the case. I find it shocking people did not know, but as you note after the debate it could not be hidden anymore. I know too that people did question Biden’s competency but were told he was fine, or just gaffe prone; I guess a lot of people bought that line.
Reference Harris, I think the insinuation is that she started her career on her knees and worked her way up from there.
We have a short term rental in Kissimmee and are meeting with the realtor who sold it to us tomorrow. We‘re leaning towards selling it at this point. The whole short term rental market changed with the pandemic. Hopefully it works out as I don‘t have a great feeling about the upcoming direction of the US economy.
Chad: As for Harris I don’t care where she started her career, or what she did to get there. Her performance over the last 3 years shows she is in way over head and is not competent or qualified to be President. Throw in her arrogance,and it’s a bad mix. She may or may not have been a good prosecutor, I don’t care. But again, her performance as VP, or President in training has been dismal.
$15 bucks for the gas shut off tool from Lowes, its useful to have. Just leave it on top of your meter so you will always have it.
Just remember to run the burners on the stove to recharge the line and relight your water heater.
“we have to start with voter ID”
The problem with VoterID is that its unconstitutional. It is considered a Poll Tax. So unless you want to rewrite the 24th amendment or give everyone free IDs, it is a non starter.
The company that put in the plumbing for our house sucked. When we first moved in a toilet always clogged. Preschoolers should not be able to clog the toilet with a baby deuce. We had the builder come back to investigate. Turned out When the pipes were put in a chunk of pvc pip had been dropped down the toilet line.
There is chatter out there that Trump regrets picking Vance as VP, and could replace him. Schumer says if he does replace him, he will have to do it in the next 10 days. Trump campaign denies regrets and talk of replacing Vance.
3b
Don’t worry. Harris is like, you think your vp is bad, hold my beer. And she picks Pete the secretary of transportation instead of Kelley from Arizona.
$15 bucks for the gas shut off tool from Lowes, its useful to have. Just leave it on top of your meter so you will always have it.
Turning that valve off is easy, how you turn it back on can destroy an old regulator – one that was previously working just fine. The worst possible thing you can do it crack it open at full speed with burners open.
I wonder what Trump’s excuse will be. Nah, he won’t have one. MAGA can do no wrong. You can clearly see at the convention that Vance’s wife was not willing to kiss the ring. In her not so distant past, she worked for a progressive law firm.
Hold: If Kelly were smart he would turn it down, he has potential as a future Presidential candidate. Being associated with Harris is a negative.
Lib: The Democrats can do no wrong either. After Harris s number disastrous public engagements, they hide her. Now, her narrative has been rewritten, and she will be an excellent competent, skilled President. Don’t you dare disagree.
Fab
The delivery guys won’t touch it without a shutoff valve on the gas line. They told me they are not allowed to do anything if the appliance doesn’t have its own shut off valve.
3B,
Absolutely not. She was less visible than Pence was in the last two years of her term. This was intentional. But you can’t fault the DNC for trying at this point. It’s been the MAGA strategy since day one of Trump. Just completely ignore the snafus. Don’t even make excuses. Just act like they never happened. American’s are such pussies.
“She [Harris] must be the luckiest woman on earth. Clearly there is no other explanation for her success.”
No, much simpler than that…She was Willie Brown’s Belichek-esque cum bucket.
3b:
I agree that Harris has been an absolute disaster as VP. She is a terrible public speaker and politician. It amazes me how her past is now being erased and rewritten. I don’t think it will work however because we’ve seen it so many times the perception of Harris is fixed in the mind. I have no idea how this election will play out but I think it is best to get the popcorn out. I‘m expecting numerous October surprises, disinformation from the intelligence community, and perhaps another attempt on Trump‘s life.
HMB,
That is how it works and it’s the correct policy. Though plumbing your own gas lines is not that terribly difficult to learn how to do. Checking for leaks is easy as pie. Soapy water, look for bubbles. And if you are experienced, you can easily check for leaks with a lighter. NG needs oxygen to burn, so the flame will not go up the pipe even if there is a leak. Now, if you suck and the leak is huge, you might lose your eyebrows.
Chad: I agree all around. Get the popcorn indeed, will be an entertaining shit show!
Some chatter out there that if Harris chooses Shapiro, it may not go over well with the progressives in the Democratic Party. Why? Well Shapiro is Jewish, optics and all that.
Biggest tell on Harris’s prospects will who she can get to accept the VP slot…top candidates like Newsom took themselves out early so as not to be affiliated with a plane crash…Whitmer – another real, top candidate – just did a rally with Shapiro in PA though…..
She bags a Whitmer or Newsom that’s a good tell that those with the most at stake personally see a pretty good pathway for her now.
She gets a JV player – someone who would poll in the low single digits in a Dem 2028 primary – that’s the smartest and best informed people in the party with the most to lose telling you they’re tossing this game.
I’m not nearly as sanguine as Lib on her chances in November….she has the full backing of MSM. She could very well be elected.
Shit, some of the smartest people here were still telling me as recently as Joe’s SOTU address that it showed him to be ‘fine’ and the only issue was his ‘stutter’….
Hook, line, and sinker……
Lady Gaga engaged to Michael Polansky
Billion dollar power couple
I don’t think there’s much to be gained by turning the clock back 75 years.
Chad, that’s another sign, to Old Realtor’s question. If she’s so accomplished, why are they currently scrubbing everything about her on the internet?
Hold, gas is a different animal, but they tried to pull that shit on me with a fridge. They didn’t want to hook it up because the line was below the floor, not above it. They wanted to install it with a flex line instead of the proper way (against the manufacturers recommendation). I told them to just leave and got my installation fee back and a $100 credit. Did the line myself with a 5 minute tutorial from youtube. Installers are getting very very lazy.
Had a similar issue with my electric stove they wanted to put in. They wanted an electric box put in when I had a conduit with the lines running up into the island. Thankfully, I knew and electrician and he did it for me.
I had a dryer guy who didn’t want to install a gas dryer because the gas pipe was not attached to the ceiling close enough to the end of the pipe. I ran out to the garage, got a large cable strap and fixed it in 60 seconds, as I promised them it would take. They tried to say it wasn’t good enough, it had to be metal. I then asked them to try to move the pipe. They wouldn’t. I then hung my 300 pound frame from the pipe. They installed the dryer. I shouldn’t have, but I still tipped them.
Accomplished or not, she’s made a real splash in this campaign!
She’ll win NJ & CA … but PA, MI, VA, and AZ will put her over the top.
AZ Trump + 5
NV Trump + 10
WI Trump + 1
MI Trump + .5
PE Trump + 1
NC Trump + 9
GE Trump + .5
And these are honeymoon numbers. Now tell me, how is she going to build lasting momentum? She really is a terrible performer when not reading a script.
10:05 oh ye of little faith. Polling isn’t what it used to be.
You EVER get a phone call for a political poll?