From NJ.com:
This multi-family N.J. home had 35 offers and sold for $126K over asking
Home prices are getting out of reach, making multi-family homes a hot commodity.
So when a two family home in Garfiled hit the market, it had more than 20 showings a day, said Joe Charles of EXP Realty, the listing agent.
“It was non-stop,” he said.
Within days he had 35 offers. It was listed for $649,000 and ultimately sold for $$775,000.
“Multi-family homes have such a larger buyer pool,” Charles said.
…
Sales of two- to four-family houses in New Jersey increased 10% in 2023, according to the Otteau Group. At the same time, sales of single family homes declined 22%, according to New Jersey Realtors.
And multi-family homes are still experiencing a strong market in 2024.
A two-family home in Essex Fells closed for $222,000 above asking price in April.
Another in Clifton sold for $140,001 above asking price in March.
“Multi-family homes are just going to sell and sell well,” Charles said.
Within days he had 35 offers. It was listed for $649,000 and ultimately sold for $$775,000.
Have we even reached a plateau yet? Is the $million dollar cape in Fair Lawn with 80s style bathrooms about to emerge? Never mind Fair Lawn, let Clifton grab the title!
Sold for 130K ten years ago, currently asking 689K. All hail punken head!
https://www.trulia.com/home/1-grace-ave-clifton-nj-07011-39718087
Open House this Saturday, asking 489K. Gimme your offer and it better be above asking price or you’ll insult the seller:
https://www.trulia.com/home/28-stevens-rd-clifton-nj-07013-39725282
Broad Street, which is almost a service road off of the Parkway. The price was just raised by 25K. PITI is $4,700 per month with $135,000 down. Hurry, this charmer won’t last!!
https://www.trulia.com/home/1012-broad-st-clifton-nj-07013-39727624
Fast: When it turns ( and it will), do we have to bail them out like last time? Do we have to listen to the stories about my our dream turned into a night. The realtor told us we could afford a 750k house with 5 percent down. Just asking .
End of times? Subscription computer mouse coming?
“Logitech CEO Hanneke Faber recently discussed the possibility of one day selling a mouse that customers can use “forever.” The executive said such a mouse isn’t “necessarily super far away” and will rely on software updates, likely delivered through a subscription model.”
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/07/logitech-has-an-idea-for-a-forever-mouse-thatrequires-a-subscription/
Got my estimated tax bill. I just cracked $16,000… I feel soo prestigious!!! They tacked on another $100,000 to the value of my home this year… That is about $400,000 increase in just a few short years….
No appealing BTW several nearby shacks have closed over the million mark recently.
Juice
You should feel privileged to pay that much.
Garfield and 775k were 2 things I never thought would be in the same sentence.
The realtor told us we could afford a 750k house with 5 percent down.
Of all the things a house tour guide blabbed to me, the best was her suggestion that I take out a home equity loan to buy another house while lying to the bank what the loan was for.
That was beautiful. That women earned the Gold Medal for that performance!
Ten 401. Eek
Trumps presidency:
4 total years with inflation under 4%, – Just like every POTUS before him since Bush Sr.
Wars started during his time in office – Again, taking credit for something that has absolutely nothing to do with Trump.
Borders secure all immigration was legal immigration – First, that is not even close to true. The number of illegals getting into the US doubled under Biden. So I guess you could say Trump let in half the number of rapists, murderers and excons in than Biden did. And get this. Removals remained below the levels recorded during much of the Obama administration, including a three-year period between fiscal 2012 and 2014 when there were more than 400,000 per year.
economy strong – Even stronger under Biden
housing normal – Again, something Trump had nothing to do with it
Democrats impeached him twice because he was mean – Really. I thought he was impeached for asking the Ukrainian President to perform two investigations: one involving his potential opponent in the upcoming 2020 presidential election and a second into unsubstantiated allegations that entities within Ukraine had interfered in the 2016 presidential election. At the time of the call, the Office of Management and Budget had frozen $400 million in military aid to Ukraine at the direction of the President.2 The contents of the call initially came to light through an intelligence community whistleblower report. The second impeachment was for getting his supporters (which Trump liked to call Patriots) to disrupt the congressional certification of the 2020 presidential election as having been won by Joseph Biden.
tax cuts for all Americans – The end result was only modest tax cuts for most families, which pale in comparison to the law’s large net tax cuts for the wealthy.
That’s a heck of as list of accomplishments there. Here is some advice. Don’t listen to a word Trump says. It’s nearly ALL complete and utter bullshit.
Ten 399
Ten 398
I’m pretty sure a mouse can have zero software updates and we can achieve the same amount of progress over the next 100 years
I liked when mice had balls in them and you had to periodically pick the fuzz out of them.
Get fkd Logitech.
That rubber coating on mice picks up oils in a matter of months. And I like Logitech, but this is a trash idea and article. I upgrade mice to get a fresh mouse and retire the tired button switch hardware, not because I need the latest crappy Logi software for envisioned imaginary workflows.
Whew…. just escaped the culling at work, only North American jobs no EMEA so far.
BTW – Left or right I always vote with my wallet… I don’t think VP Harris gives two s*h*i*t*s about American workers. She ran on a platform in 2020 on lifting the per-country cap on employment based green cards if elected.
I expect more of the same this time around too.
Libturd says:
August 1, 2024 at 10:02 am
Trumps presidency:
4 total years with inflation under 4%, – Just like every POTUS before him since Bush Sr.
Your responses are ignorant, the facts are everything was so much better under Trump than Biden. You will never admit that even when it is in black and white. Keep believing the Democratic lies and Trump hate. The reality is the Democrats are much more dangerous than the Republicans. Your even OK with open borders and allowing anybody in to our country who kills, rapes or steals from our American citizens. Common sense much??
I liked when mice had balls in them and you had to periodically pick the fuzz out of them.
Any questions? lol.
Juice: Why the layoffs?
3b – If you cannot grow the top line, you cut jobs to increase the bottom line. We like somany software companies have these types of cuts annually.
Jim,
I point out fact after fact to refute your statement and you say I am ignorant. Okay?
And I am for processing all immigrants. Something neither party seems to want to do. This way you can vet them and weed out the few rapists and murderers. But I do believe in allowing those in seeking economic asylum because I know it ends up being a net positive. Especially in light of our falling birth rate and shortening life expectancy.
The travel softball scene is now out of control. It’s like all these teams hunting free agents and trying to form superteams. They took the crappy NBA free agent off season and applied it here.
Lib, I was for processing all immigrants, until the left decided to scale up and import them to the max the past 4 years. Here’s some compromise. Process anyone prior to 2020. Deport any illegals after 2020.
Lib – Cumon already, at least back up claims…Shortening life expectancy? People live on average five years more now than they did when you were a teenager and that age is only increasing.
Sure covid put a dimple dent in the chart, but the trend is up not down…
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy
I’m sick of them trying to apply the subscription model to everything.
Libturd says:
August 1, 2024 at 11:13 am
Jim,
I point out fact after fact to refute your statement and you say I am ignorant. Okay?
Your ignorant because you are not refuting the facts that the Trump years were/are much better than Biden’s mess of high prices , runaway real real estate prices and rampant illegal immigration , Biden invited all to America.
Yes Trump did cut taxes for all, wealthier people made out better because they make more…all common sense stuff. Why don’t you send your extra money to the government if your so upset about everybody getting tax breaks? Continue with your complaining when we become a third world nation…its happening right before our eyes.
Democrats cheering on the attempt of the assassination of Trump , is the epitome of how dangerous the party is. Why let the truth get in your way, just change everything to fit into your agenda.
It’s not satire anymore
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1818995650106884155
3b – The left even wants to cancel all data sharing agreements with the countries the immigrants are coming from. This would be the biometric data so they cannot claim with fake paperwork to be someone else to gain entry and the criminal record data, which can automatically deny them entry even with a valid political asylum claim.
Just try and cross the border into Canada with a criminal record…..I dare ya!!
It’s not satire anymore
Blink and you’ll miss it. The left loves turning their weirdness into reality.
I remember a number of years ago when Joey Buttafuoco did a charity/exhibition boxing match with this champion-level female boxer. He hit her so hard that he almost rearranged her brain. The woman, rightfully so, called him an ass as it was an exhibition. Point being, a man in a boxing ring with a woman is like tossing a kitten in a pen with a Pit bull. It’s all absurd. The world is utterly upside down.
I was on my desktop at work reviewing parking at Newark.
About 6 hours later I was on my phone at home and I was looking at Facebook and it gave me an add for Newark Parking. Not sure the method of profiling, but it is there.
Fuck the Zuck
The transgendered athlete issue is what happens when candidates swing too far to the left or right. Even I agree that for athletic events, you must compete in the body you were born in. But I also feel women should have the right to choose. But many no longer do. Again, the extremes become law when there is no center or compromise.
Jim, believe what you want. Biden did not cause inflation. Trump did. Just wait for ZIRP 2.
The transgendered athlete issue is what happens when candidates swing too far to the left
or right.Fixed it.
KRE, out, a little bit more than 3x overnight for 15 minutes work…I’m a not small part of the volume so far on two of those strikes expiring tomorrow….:)
Chi – re: “Not sure the method of profiling”. They don’t need a cookie anymore…
Device Fingerprinting… It pulls together a bunch of data your Safari or Chrome browser sends to their services to build a profile of you.
https://fingerprint.com/
The Brave browser has it built in but it’s not foolproof. Generally you need to use a privacy VPN and a secure anonymous browser mode in a virtual desktop.
Really not worth all the trouble unless you are trying to avoid big brother..
Good call Lefty.
I think the entire economy is turning south. Slowly. But relatively surely. And the Olympics have become completely unwatchable.
Lib, Even I agree that for athletic events, you must compete in the body you were born in.
What happens when a person does an F2M transition? Should that person compete on women’s team?
Lib, I could care less if some mediocre athlete ends up running girls track and places 5th. But this is literally a dude beating on a girl on a world stage. Michael Bisping said it best…it’s great you’ve found a way to live as your true self, but that comes with some sacrifice. One sacrifice you should have to make is the ability to beat a woman unconscious. This isn’t just a swing too far. They let go of the swing and flung over Mt. Everest.
What happens when a person does an F2M transition? Should that person compete on women’s team?
The use of testosterone and other anabolic steroids/hormones in athletic competition has traditionally been forbidden for decades.
Fast: When it turns ( and it will), do we have to bail them out like last time? Do we have to listen to the stories about my our dream turned into a night. The realtor told us we could afford a 750k house with 5 percent down. Just asking .
It was worse than that. We bailed out people who took on 2nd mortgages to blow money. And then when Santelli questioned it on live TV, the white house press secretary attacked him.
“Chicago says: Ten 398”
I assume you got the same memo I did this morning….Bad news is now bad news…..
Just as FYI – IOC cancelled genetic testing decades ago right around time of the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Then they had an alternative, if there is any question about gender they reserve the right to have a medical person inspect the athlete.
Then the rules were changed again gender is not defined by chromosomes, DNA or genitals but by now by hormone levels, specifically testosterone.
Now again the rules changed hormones levels specifically testosterone levels don’t matter.
Any “female” competitor does not have to have testosterones levels under 10 nanomoles/liter, does not have to have female anatomy, does not have to have XX chromosomes or really any other scientific or medical test at all.
Why bother having separate genders at all at this point?
BRT – great memory….I think he said something along the lines we should not have to pay for our neighbors mistakes aka socialized losses.
Still happening….Silicon Valley Bank comes to mind. Hardly systemic unless well you worked in Silicon Valley or your Wine business banked with them like the Govenor of California’s did.
It’s really simple…you’ve yet to see a single story of a woman coming into a men’s sport where there is a concern. At our high school, we have a girl on the football team playing slot receiver. She never actually plays in game. Consequently, everyone is super worried about her getting clobbered in even just practice.
Juice, the SVB grift was pathetic but nevertheless constantly justified by the same people who rail against “trickle down” and use the argument that the bailout actually does trickle down
lol, whoops
Don’t worry. I’ve done that about ten times over the years.
Agree, no one cares or will notice.
Damn, now I did it! Ugh.
I knew it the first time I met you!
Juice: That is all understood. I was just wondering if it was anything specific to your company, or wider issues with the economy.
BRT: I feel bad for the female Italian boxer. It’s a disgrace this nonsense is permitted, and encouraged. The radical left is out of control.
Leftwing,
I don’t think you are going to have to wait too long for Trump to say something to alienate huge numbers of people. Yesterday had to put a dent in any headway he had made with Black voters. And he’s only getting warmed up.
Last I checked $100 gets you $116 on Harris
The honeymoon is gonna fade (I hope), for my bet. Not for my life.
I’m heading out to Reno to take advantage of some offers and to get some R&R. I won’t be around much next week. Let’s see where we are in a week. I’m flying home on Thursday on Delta as long as CrowdStrike doesn’t prevent it.
Lib,
The odds started moving the minute Trump opened his mouth in the Black journalist interview.
That boxer was probably born with a vag, has probably had a tough life, grown a big clit and Adam’s apple but no boobs, from no fault of her own, but still stuck with the girl assignment her parents gave her, instead of trannying. I thought conservatives approved of that, at least let her win a few boxing matches in return for her struggles. Unless she’s been taking testosterone.
No one: It’s clear looking at the Algerian boxer that he is more male than female.
3B – We may never know, it would take a genetic test which aren’t allowed. This boxer may have a genetic condition, an SRD5A2 gene mutation causing a 5-alpha reductase deficiency which leads to issues in sexual organ formation before birth and later again during puberty. It’s rare but there is an outcropping of this mutation in Algeria where this boxer is from. It can also only happen to biological males with X and Y chromosomes.
Again tough life for the boxer. Reminds me of the runner from India a few years back, she now dresses as a man and is a bricklayer in her small village.
https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/8192977/failed-gender-test-forces-olympian-redefine-athletic-career-espn-magazine
Phoenix tribute.
NSFW
Dallas police case/car crash/ shooting. Full of profanity
https://youtu.be/yWKWJm_p0yU
3b – re: ” I was just wondering if it was anything specific to your company”…
Almost completely new management this year. Worse for them is they were hired when we were coming off a banner year in growth best quarter ever etc, and the run last few years in growth was impressive as well. Last few quarters however were flat. This new management team has to come up with something to grow sales besides raising prices. To develop a new software product takes time. This cost cutting is only going to buy them time. Software is a rough business in general…Everyone I work with has not really been here all that long, there are only a few long timers.
The cuts are deep but I do not know very many of them, as with WFH allot of them simply have not come to the office since I joined last year. I would say some were really Slacking Chatting it too much. Chat online is no way to network, show up to the Zoom at least when the C-Suite joins turn on the camera and speak up.
Our SVP was making his rounds around 3 PM for the last month or so. It was not to chit chat, it’s to see who isn’t in for the day and who swiped their badge and left early.
beer re: “Phoenix tribute?”
Did I miss the funeral?
Juice: Understand. Cuts/layoffs are a quick way to cut expenses. The people that were slacking off, should not have been doing that. It’s just plain stupid, and not showing up for a scheduled Zoom, or scheduled day in the office, is just again complete stupidity.
Juice: There should be genetic testing. If what you say is applicable to the Algerian boxer, then it’s shades of grey, genetic testing would ensure fairness.
Juice: Intel is laying off thousands, and suspending dividend payments in the 4 th quarter.
3B – FYI did not mention it earlier but my better half just celebrated 25 yrs along with their current CEO as well. Big todo in NYC they flew in the rest of quarter century + club etc. No spouses invited, so it was pizza and a movie that night with the kids for me which was perfect.
Txted a few friends tonight to tell them ahead of the news I survived the cuts today, so I must be doing something right. Got a thanks from our my leader in the C-Suite as well for talking down a few folks off the ledge including him…..lol. We are going to turn the ship hard with all kinds of new software. I plan on being onboard for the rest of the trip….
Costco gas now $2.95….. Drill baby drill.
Juice: Congratulations to you and your wife. 25 years is a very long time, especially these days. Congrats to you too for surviving the cuts. All the best to you going forward.
Questions/thoughts/observations…
– Is Carmella sharing a basement with SlowJoe, or is she running the campaign from her own?
– When did wife-beating become an Olympic sport? More proof that modern liberalism is a mental disorder.
– Anecdotal, but appears to have been a meaningful uptick in return-to-office; NYC sidewalks much more crowded (no doubt partly summer tourists), bus much more crowded, Turnpike traffic awful…
A lot of people leave early at 3:30. My friend said, they go “I’m going for coffee” and pull the disappearing act. I get caught in the traffic at 3:45.
BRT – don’t say Beetlejuice!
3B – forgot to mention PCE is not signaling a recession.
I” ll think more about it over the weekend, but we all know if the man behind the curtain cuts rates the party will go on.
If you listened to pumpkin all last decade, you could have seen this 10 years ahead of its time.
Used to love when people mocked nj as “special.” Damn f’ing right it is special. It’s right outside (basically clifton is a part of nyc at this stage) the greatest city in the world. How do you lose?
Went to go fix a toilet fill valve today at my rental ….made me realize i enjoy this chit. It’s a high paying side gig for a teacher at this point. It was basically a lottery ticket. Changed my life. Glad I positioned myself to take that big risk back in 99/00.
Hold my beer says:
August 1, 2024 at 8:40 am
Garfield and 775k were 2 things I never thought would be in the same sentence.
Long Nj based simply on nyc spillover.
Trigger material for all you wfhomers… :)
https://x.com/martymadrid/status/1818846521502073319?s=46
Sports in general is out of control…from kid level to pro’s.
BRT says:
August 1, 2024 at 11:45 am
The travel softball scene is now out of control. It’s like all these teams hunting free agents and trying to form superteams. They took the crappy NBA free agent off season and applied it here.
Socialist government welfare provides healthcare and free income to the over 65 crowd. That frees up time for old timers to bitch and moan about social issues. They don’t have to worry about money
Juice: No recession, but things are shifting. When the Fed cuts in September, the party continues as you say, do low rates loosen inventory and lower prices, or increase prices more like the end of 2021/2022.
What about inflation? Fed should be increasing rates further not lowering them.
chi, holy fuck….
always nice when the world’s benchmark fixed income security trades like a cathy wood shit biotech stock….
Socialist government welfare provides healthcare and free income to the over 65 crowd.
Vote Carmella! Keep the programs going! WOO HOO!
Very Stable: Yes, and just think you will be able to get it too, when you turn 65.
Some interesting context on the Boxing discussion.
https://x.com/RobertBohan/status/1819012599796707358
Juice, congrats on surviving the cull.
3b – re: “What about inflation?”
Fed believes longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored at 2 percent. Core PCE is almost there now 2.6%.
Fab- Already scrambling this morning as a build engineer was let go….we are supposed to be doing a major, major update in a few weeks for all of our customers. Not that the engineer cannot be replaced but you know how it goes with the tribe and their knowledge.
I was planning on taking a week off this month too.. F- That no need to give them a reason. PTO in November when it’s quiet…..
Think about the amount of money it takes to do that
leftwing says:
August 2, 2024 at 8:36 am
chi, holy fuck….
always nice when the world’s benchmark fixed income security trades like a cathy wood shit biotech stock….
For those too lazy to bother
Ten 385; touched 379
VIX is at highest level since last Fall’s equity trough
Buying VIX in the 11-13 range was a gift, but I (like pumps) prefer to post about it and talk about it instead of actually placing trades.
NNE is also going to go back up into the 20’s eventually.
Chevron is relocating to Texas, deserting California, its home state for more than 140 years, where the business climate has soured for oil companies.
Between the Sahm rule (a coincident indicator) and over a year of inverted yield curve (a leading indicator), lots of signals suggesting the US is in recession. The big question is whether the NBER would be willing to call a recession before the election, which would hurt Kamala/Joe politically.
Rising Unemployment Rate Triggers Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
By Nicholas Jasinski
The July jobs report showed a surprising weakening in the U.S. labor market, and likely will escalate worries about the health of the economy.
The rising unemployment rate narrowly triggered the so-called Sahm Rule recession indicator—just as investors’ concern about flagging growth hit a high point on Thursday. It posits that a recession has begun once the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds its low from the prior year by at least half a percentage point.
The unemployment rate hit 4.3% in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, while economists had been expecting it to hold steady from June’s rate of 4.1%. The July figure brings the average unemployment rate over the past three months to 4.13%, from the previous year’s low of 3.5% in July 2023.
The Sahm Rule has been triggered before every U.S. recession since the 1970s. Economist Claudia Sahm, the creator of the indicator, has noted, however, that this time could be different. The rising unemployment rate hasn’t come due to layoffs and negative monthly payrolls numbers, but thanks to a larger supply of workers even as hiring has continued.
Check out our national champion in the semiconductor space. Our future strategic protector.
That would be Intel for this of you playing the home edition of our game.
I was going to buy a new vehicle….Nope… I was going to take a week off Nope!
News cycle…….. At least I am not the only crazy one.
“Amazon’s Chief Financial Officer has claimed the ongoing turbulent news cycle, including major global events such as the US presidential election and the Paris Olympics, has been disrupting consumer spending patterns.
Brian Olsavsky confirmed earlier suspicions during a call with reporters, telling Axios “high-profile” news like last month’s attempted assassination see consumer attention become redirected.
Consequentially, when major news events occur, consumers are less likely to spend, affecting “probably most companies” that sell goods or services.”
https://www.techradar.com/pro/amazon-cfo-says-major-news-events-cause-big-disruption-in-consumer-spending
For you financial guys, tell me what the VIX and the “10” is telling you?
Chicago? Leftwing?
Chi – Here is a WallStreetbets YOLO kid trader that could have used your advice.
r/wallstreetbets
23 hr. ago
user/Sad_Nefariousness10
Chat
I bought $700k worth of Intel stock today
https://tinyurl.com/vfej49fb
VIX is the market pricing its view of stock volatility 30 days out based on the current prices of options expiring near that date.
Known as the ‘fear’ index as it normally spikes with larger market declines and lowers and settles in rising markets.
Makes sense if you think about it…clear blue skies provide a backdrop for positive markets and therefor little concern for surprises (volatility), so the price one would be willing to pay for an option on a share price 30 days out is muted….
conversely unsettled times – market multiple peaks, Presidential political surprises, indeterminate Fed and interest rate policy, indications of real economy slowdown – provide the backdrop for *potential* large market swings…as such in those (these) times the price of options on share prices 30 days out spike causing a spike in the VIX index.
chi, you own the 10….
“…lots of signals suggesting the US is in recession. The big question is whether the NBER would be willing to call a recession before the election, which would hurt Kamala/Joe politically.”
Not sure we are in a ‘recession’…in quotes because the judgement of one is very subjective…and recall even the oft quoted ‘two quarters of economic decline’ is not the measure, just usually a coincident event…unemployment levels and rates have just recently normalized to what they were the entire decade of the 90s….remember 2008-15 was a historical economic anomaly – not normalcy…
Re: NBER and timing they are more conservative than the Fed (if that is even possible) and older than Senators at the far end of the bell curve (if that is even possible).
Meaning, even if we are in ‘recession’ and they would call it as one, there is near zero chance of that happening prior to Election Day.
Again, like rate cut predictions, look at the people actually making these decisions and their backgrounds and history and ignore the ”market chatter” looking for headlines and clicks….
typo…2008 through 2023 – 15 years – was the anomaly….
lw,
Thanks for the insight. The beauty for novices like me, I sit back and watch my passive involvement slowly climb through the gyrations. Years ago, to give myself a direction, I read Schwab’s tutorials and guides, A Random Walk Down Wall Street and a few other books. It got me going and today I’m… financially comfortable. :)
Juice: That is just inflation trending down towards 2 percent, yearly increases, but prices are still quite high. We need some real deflation to correct. In the meantime Elizabeth Warren is giving Powell a good scolding on this morning’s unemployment number.
Check out the price history on this one; especially the 2004 and 2019 dates. Ouch! But any time I see an upscale house that’s empty, I think of somebody who bit off more than they can chew. Want my suggestion? Us guys here on this blog should chip in and buy something like this and turn it into our “frat” house. I’ll say no more! ;)
https://www.trulia.com/home/7-stevens-rd-bernardsville-nj-07924-39844092
“It got me going and today I’m… financially comfortable. :)”
Outstanding!!
Long term buy and hold outperforms 90%+ of short term or actively managed portfolios. Suitable for everybody.
I hope a few of you all listened to me when I told you all the market was likely at the top and the economy was turning over? They say market timing is a fool’s game. I’ve only been fooled once.
How about that jobs number this morning?
See the article in the Times on the CRE at 50th Street in Manhattan that sold for nearly 300 million in 2006 and went for 8 million on Wednesday?
Now the question becomes, will the FED wait until September?
Why am I skipping a line after each sentence?
Lib,
They say market timing is a fool’s game. I’ve only been fooled once.
You account for recurring taxes on LT/ST capital gains, or just consider worth all the transaction gains?
Thanks lib fir the heads up, I went 28 percent stocks as of July 25. I’m 15 years out from retirement so I have a 6 percent goal for the next year’s to hit my target. I’m happy to walk away this year and just collect interest.
Unemployment rate jumps to 4.3%, job gains total just 114,000 as labor slowdown deepens.
Coming around the 3rd turn into the stretch! Carmola is gaining! It’s neck and neck! She may take this one!! She’s surging!! She’s nudging ahead! Unbelievable!!
So… add financial volatility to outrageous prices of goods and services, multiple wars, warped s0cial ideology and every media outlet, news source, podcast, video, story line, blurb, headline and broadcast pulling for Camel-a and what a wildly entertaining four years it’ll be watching the leftist spin. Comedy at it’s best while the nation burns.
Long term buy and hold outperforms 90%+ of short term or actively managed portfolios.
Shh!! Don’t say it too loud!
Lib: Is the increase in jobless rate because of layoffs, I don’t think so, at least at this point. Its more likely because more people are entering the job market. They young 20 somethings are going to get screwed if we are in fact entering a recession, as there will be less jobs available.
So which is it at this point, the economy is doing well, but slowing down, or the economy is entering a recession. How does an impending recession impact the housing market (and 775k house prices in Garfield). As for the Fed cutting rates prior to the next meeting, I don’t see it. Its not the pandemic times of a few years ago.
As an incremental factor, job loss is the important next catalyst. Forced selling.
Nice Walking.
I am sitting happily at 50/50. Wish I pulled more out, but I’m in a pretty enviable position due to my absolutely stunning timing. I started getting out (mostly all large cap growth) at 18K on the Nasdaq with my last 30% pull at the tippy tippy top at 18.6K. Will start scaling back in SLOWLY at 15.8K and all back in by 13K which I hope we don’t hit. I expect the interest rate cuts to restart the insanity, though it might take a short while.
Someone,
Excellent question. First, I don’t time the market often. I’ve only done it in a significant manner (over 50% of my equity holdings) five times. The tech bubble, the financial crisis, the Covid drop, I messed up once post Covid as I thought the rally was topping off and it went up another 20%. And now. So many of my moves end up being long-term. None the less, I have very little in taxable accounts. Almost all of it is in retirement funds. Like 90%. So my biggest concern ends up being flagged for round-tripping or short-term trading by Fidelity in my 401K. Though, I use the target funds to get around it a bit.
My market timing is based on one thing. That stupid chart I post all of the time. It gets near the top line or bottom line on average, about once a decade. That’s when I do it. It’s really just another way of doing Buffet’s sell when the masses are buying and buy when the masses are selling. I don’t day trade BTW. That’s for suckers.
The Ten is the haven for the world. USD is the reserve currency. When there is uncertainty, people buy the Ten. Governments buy the Ten. Russians, Chinese, Iranians buy the Ten.
As wrongheaded as MMT is, it is moments such as today that give its supporters a warped sense of confidence.
To be clear, theoretically, the action in the Ten reflects a series of forward rates that build the shape of the yield curve. In practice, people are selling risk assets, spread product, other currencies and swapping them for the Ten.
Note, a 50 bps move in the Ten does not necessarily imply a 50 bps in 30yr fixed mortgages. Mortgages are spread product. They correlate significantly with the Ten, but the spread is a function of supply and demand in that market.
Nice VIX
Look at 2’s 10’s. Inversion almost disappeared!
Nice explanation. Best I’ve heard for it yet. I guess you went to class.
ChiFi,
Nice explanation on the ten.
“As for the Fed cutting rates prior to the next meeting, I don’t see it. Its not the pandemic times of a few years ago.”
An off meeting cut is highly unlikely absent some meaningful outside catalyst…
Lots of ‘chatter’ that given this morning the Fed ‘should’ have cut yesterday…I’d take a bit of the the other side and say they are not displeased with where they are exactly sitting right now…
Next event to watch, Jackson Hole. Not for action but frequently a source of upcoming policy tips…8/24
Rasmussen WTF!
The most right wing polling agency swings to Harris+5
https://x.com/joncoopertweets/status/1819392396255199437
left,
I don’t really see a fed cut either. Powell warned of pain. This is it. August is historically the worst market month. Especially within the last few decades. Looks like this one is likely to be no different.
Lib, sounds good. I see it more like rebalancing your portfolio (albeit a bit more extensively or frequently) and less like click-it *NOW* or miss-it timing :)
When I do any speculation, I get into my head so much: “Will it work”, “Did I do the wise/right thing”, and … Good on you for staying more sane.
Fab 11:44,
Early days…
Fabius,
She’ll be four years of entertainment. Let’s hope we have some semblance of a country left by 2028. Meanwhile, all we can do is make money off the madness. Trump should be happy and relieved. He can chill at his multiple properties and leave all the bullshit behind.
11:55 Trump will be busy. He’ll spend his time in court.
Speaking of inflation..
Jenkins Boardwalk in Point Pleasant….
Slice of Pizza $5.50
Whole Pizza $42.00
And it’s lousy pizza. Plan ahead, call one into Rosies and go get it.
Fabius Maximus says:
August 2, 2024 at 11:44 am
“The most right wing polling agency swings to Harris”
I’ll go with that wacky Dem (is there any other kind) James Carville on this one, agreeing that ‘she’s going to get slaughtered’. I’d say we’ll know by Nov, but the corrupt Dems may be ‘finding’ votes in Philly, Detroit and Atlanta until Jan.
Lib: follow Nick Timiraos in the WSJ. Powell leaks to him and road tests ideas to see how the markets react.
Here is a blurb from Timiraos this morning.
Assume Jay Powell is talking
A slowdown in job growth in July, coupled with a noticeable rise in the unemployment rate, is likely to end a debate over whether to cut interest rates in September—not that there was much doubt a cut was on the way.
Taking its place will be a debate over whether the Fed should cut rates by a quarter-percentage-point, as it did in 1995, 1998 and 2019, or whether a larger half-point cut is warranted, as it did ahead of recessions in 2001 and 2007.
Jenk’s and Martell’s pizza is an insult to New Jersey. I do like Joey Tomatoes plain slice though. Given the price though, I limit myself to a single slice now. You can call to Rosies, but they’ll ask you to jump through 3 hoops to establish a pick up time. Good pizza, but I don’t like their act of creating artificial scarcity and urgency.
I was thinking that the size of the initial cut was the only real question at this point.
Anyone buying stocks today? Amazon down 9%+
Was happy to close out half my Meta position at $495 yesterday (cb -$160).
All, need to buy a car for kid. Is Costco program worth it? It gives only a couple of dealerships in Northern NJ (a bit far from Central NJ place I am at).
Looking at Civic Hybrid or Corolla Hybrid. Anything better you found for your kids?
Opportunity time is coming.
Someone
I bought a Chevy bolt for my kid last year, 300 mile range summer, 2000 off list plus 7500 tax rebate. Car listed at 3400 with leather , heated cool seats and steering. Free l2 charger I stall at your home. Nice car I don’t plan on her driving it out of state, but it does the Paramus to point pleasant and back with no worries about range. Yeah the early models had the battery issue /fire. But they have since corrected
So, I see Trump is floundering.
Thanks much Walking.
If you are buying a new car, then Costco is the way to go. But that said, the dealership needs to be convenient to you. Also, you still need to go in there and haggle about things. Costco throws the hammer down, so your initial starting point for negotiation is as low as you are going to get, but again, don’t let your guard down. You still need to go guns blazing. If you are going to pay cash, then probably there is not much to do other than make sure that they don’t tack on expensive worthless/overpriced stuff.
On a used car, you probably get $500 discount, but otherwise you are completely on your own. Still, it is $500.
SomeOne says:
August 2, 2024 at 2:28 pm
All, need to buy a car for kid. Is Costco program worth it? It gives only a couple of dealerships in Northern NJ (a bit far from Central NJ place I am at).
Looking at Civic Hybrid or Corolla Hybrid. Anything better you found for your kids?
I think we have discussed this issue for the last few years. August feels like the new September/October. It is as if the computers are programmed to front run the sell off.
Libturd says:
August 2, 2024 at 11:49 am
left,
I don’t really see a fed cut either. Powell warned of pain. This is it. August is historically the worst market month. Especially within the last few decades. Looks like this one is likely to be no different.
So the concern that what was supposed to be a soft landing, may now be a recession, or hard landing. If that is the case, is it really surprising that we may in fact have a hard landing, as in recession?
I’m shocked. Fraud in sponsoring migrants. Who would have guessed?
Compromising wrong zip codes and storage units as their address. Why wasn’t someone at least using Google earth?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13703257/biden-administration-freezes-migrant-flight-program-flaw-application-process.html
Bob
I added a little to my Amazon at $167. Over the last 2 weeks ive sold every stock that wasn’t a core or possible core holding. Waiting to see if anything I have or am watching falls 20%+ or more before I buy more.
LAX says:
August 2, 2024 at 3:24 pm
“…floundering.”
Conjures up the awful image of you hoisting your shapeless, blubbery body out of bed in the morning (or afternoon, which I suppose is more likely for a dud).
4:51 is that like defrauding a cancer charity?
NEW YORK – New York Attorney General Letitia James today released the following statement after Donald J. Trump was forced to pay more than $2 million in court-ordered damages to eight different charities for illegally misusing charitable funds at the Trump Foundation for political purposes:
“Not only has the Trump Foundation shut down for its misconduct, but the president has been forced to pay $2 million for misusing charitable funds for his own political gain. Charities are not a means to an end, which is why these damages speak to the president’s abuse of power and represent a victory for not-for-profits that follow the law. Funds have finally gone where they deserve — to eight credible charities. My office will continue to fight for accountability because no one is above the law — not a businessman, not a candidate for office, and not even the president of the United States.”
5:26 you are so weird.
Breaking News:
Five days before Donald Trump became president in January 2017, a manager at a bank branch in Cairo received an unusual letter from an organization linked to the Egyptian intelligence service. It asked the bank to “kindly withdraw” nearly $10 million from the organization’s account — all in cash.
Inside the state-run National Bank of Egypt, employees were soon busy placing bundles of $100 bills into two large bags, according to records from the bank. Four men arrived and carried away the bags, which U.S. officials later described in sealed court filings as weighing a combined 200 pounds and containing what was then a sizable share of Egypt’s reserve of U.S. currency.
Federal investigators learned of the withdrawal, which has not been previously reported, early in 2019. The discovery intensified a secret criminal investigation that had begun two years earlier with classified U.S. intelligence indicating that Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi sought to give Trump $10 million to boost his 2016 presidential campaign, a Washington Post investigation has found.
LAX – Sounds like another Comey, McCabe, Peter Strzok special back during the days they were busy with Crossfire Hurrican and the fake up the Russian collusion story.
Which one went the the Washington Post with this baloney? I would say Comey he seems to have an ax to grind. Not welcome by the Republicans or the Democrats either.
Where was any of this in the Muller Report?
Thanks much Chifi. I agree… the dealers have a way of adding things so fast, the head spins.
And now:
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTN4bYwyA/
7:12
In the U.S., receiving funds from overseas is a federal crime. Federal investigators were trying to prove if any money actually moved from Egypt to Trump, and if that had anything to do with Trump’s decision to boost his campaign in its final days with $10 million of his own money.
But the investigation was halted by Trump’s Justice Department, which blocked FBI agents and prosecutors from accessing bank records that could provide the evidence. In the fall of 2019, Barr questioned whether there were sufficient grounds for the investigation to continue.
Barr directed the Trump-appointed U.S. attorney in D.C., Jessie Liu, to examine the intelligence herself, and instructed FBI Director Christopher Wray to provide “adult supervision” on FBI agents Barr said were “hell-bent” on pursuing Trump’s records. Whether Wray (also appointed by Trump) did anything in response isn’t known, but in June 2020, the prosecutor Barr chose to oversee the investigation, Michael Sherwin, closed it down, citing insufficient evidence.
Costco don’t cover all car brands. If you don’t want to deal with the dealer negotiations, try https://automatchconsulting.com/ They will search the dealers for cars that match your spec and will negotiate the best price. Mrs Fab used them when she was buying her truck. She walked out of a few dealerships when the mysterious $500 would show up on the final paperwork. She was quite happy to pay Tom that to remove having to deal with them and feel ripped off on the deal.
Also I buy my cars in New York. They have a max cap of $175 the dealership can charge for the paperwork. Also they are happy to sort out NJ Title work.
LAX – Zero evidence on how some supposed cash withdrawal from a bank in Egypt made it into Trump’s hands. Let me know where the “cash” went… Who laundered it? Let me guess it’s buried with Ivanka at Trump Bedminster.
If you look a the FEC data $10 MILLION was a blip on the radar for the 2016 election financing.
We already know now the Egyptians bought of Democratic Senator Menendez. Who is to say the money was not for Hillary’s Campaign? She spent way more money.
Hillary and her PACs raised and spent $975 Million while Trump spent only $533 million in 2016.
Nothing in the exhaustive Muller report on 2016 election interference. Where is the classified info that makes this supposed connection to Trump? Why didn’t Biden and his FBI go after it in 2021? FBI Director Wray is still there ya know, reporting to President Biden..
HMB,
WMT is one of my core holdings. May add to it since people may need to go down market during an economic downturn. Will likely add a bit more to Amazon and buy some bonds JJ style.
Three guys I worked with at a former company just got whacked this week. Mid 50’s senior level. Profits were rising but they just wanted to reduce high salary headcount.
The company is also significantly reducing (if not eliminating) its NYC footprint, office-wise.
Choppy times ahead.
Bob: My company just closed another 3 regional offices to get rid of real estate. I feel bad for your friends. They are in their 50 s and were making big bucks, it’s likely they won’t earn that type of money again. For all the talk about older employees and their institutional knowledge, at the end of the day, companies want these people gone.
10:29 lot’s of B.S. there.
In his first appearance in the Keystone State since the attempted assassination at a Butler rally several weeks ago, Trump kicked off the campaign event talking about the shooting and held a moment of silence for firefighter Corey Comperatore who was killed at the rally.
As the night went on, the once-enthusiastic crowd members started to leave the Harrisburg rally early as Trump often went off script during the speech that hit hard on topics impacting voters like fracking and the economy.
In typical Trump fashion, the GOP presidential candidate once again talked about Hannibal Lecter, deporting illegal immigrants and took every opportunity to remind the crowd of how terrible the Biden-Harris administration is.
Trump ended his speech: “We will make America great again!”
Maga will blame others for the consequences of a system they themselves imposed.
They should take comfort in Trickle Down, ain’t it?
3b says:
August 3, 2024 at 11:00 am
Bob: My company just closed another 3 regional offices to get rid of real estate. I feel bad for your friends. They are in their 50 s and were making big bucks, it’s likely they won’t earn that type of money again. For all the talk about older employees and their institutional knowledge, at the end of the day, companies want these people gone.
Dealerships aren’t obligated to take Costco prices.
You use Costco price as guidance to shop around till you find best price.
For last 4 yrs Maga has been hoping for a recession.
Their consensus was a hard landing in 2021. Or 2022. Or 2023
3b says:
August 2, 2024 at 4:46 pm
So the concern that what was supposed to be a soft landing, may now be a recession, or hard landing. If that is the case, is it really surprising that we may in fact have a hard landing, as in recession?
Ya gotta love when camela laid out this big grand plan to Netanyahu and he didn’t even look at her when saying “no”. It was a complete dismissal, as if she was a rented twot, total disregard… like a fly that was swatted away. Wait until the posse from Russia, China and Iran get a hold of her. They’re pushing that horse hard, burying statues upside down and reciting incantations in tongues, praying that she’s escorted to the throne. This chick brings inauthentic to a new level! Bolt the doors, lock and load.
2:11 you have zero understanding of world affairs.
LAX says:
August 3, 2024 at 2:44 pm
“you [Fast Ed] have zero understanding of world affairs.”
Talk about a lack of self-awareness…A jobless, burnt-out, cuck who’s completely dependent on his wife (aka Dem), telling a guy that’s worked hard and built financial security for himself and his family, that he doesn’t understand the world. What a maroon!
Just got my tax bill from Princeton, where I own a condo; the municipal newsletter that came with it is ironic, though not surprising, as the Fed prepares to lower rates and continues to lie about the progress it’s made on inflation. I forget, are tax increases included in the inflation rate? In any case, this is from one of NJ’s top-rated municipalities…
“Princeton remains one of only 6 of NJ’s 564 municipalities that earns the top-tier AAA rating from both Moody’s and S&P. The municipality is in excellent financial condition…Princeton residents’ tax rate increased by 5.9%…”
So Fed says it’s closing in on it’s 2% inflation target yet NJ’s healthiest towns are raising taxes at 3x that rate…
Guy who married the 50 year old cat lady spinster that is now running for president was banging his Nanny before his wife kicked him to the curb, story says got her pregnant too…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13706077/Kamala-Harris-husband-Doug-Emhoff-breaks-silence-Daily-Mail-revealed-cheated-wife-daughters-nanny.html
Is this the best the county can do?
Please god give us a viable third party candidate…..
Fast: Harris will be a disaster on the world stage. The Dem supporters on this blog have followed in lockstep with their superiors in the Democratic establishment and are totally behind Harris. They won’t even acknowledge in the slightest that Harris is not competent or qualified to be President based on her performance over the last 3 years. This has nothing to do with Trump. Your party is supposed to be the party of mature, educated informed adults.
To echo Juice, please god give us a viable 3rd party alternative.
Juice: If the story is true, hopefully the old codger is behaving himself now.
Juice: I read the article and he acknowledges that the story is true ( as you already know).
5:30 nonsense
LAX Harris has no understanding of world affairs. “ I haven t been to Europe either”.
4:02 newsflash: I got a job. Yeah, my High School mascot was indeed a Maroon.
Man, you are one sharp cookie. Too bad you are sooooo weird.
LAX: Again, put down the pipe or the joint. Harris is completely out of her league in world affairs, along with all the other areas she know nothing about.
5:36 keep flogging your narrative. Literally no one cares.
5:38 puff puff….fuck off
You guys are really letting the stupid hang all of the way out today.
Pathetic. Maybe it’s desperation? Maybe you are just cunts? Probably both.
Medicare for all, including illegal aliens. Any household making 29K and up will pay an additional 4% premium tax to pay for it. Cumola wants single payer medical, no more private insurance. Her words. And for all you suburban moms that can’t stand Trump, don’t get upset when your 16 year old daughter comes home and said she had to share a shower with some dude calling himself a chick. You voted for it. What’s that? You’ll shoot the guy if he touches her? No you won’t, Cumola wants gun confiscation. Equal equity for all, a level playing field at the expense of those who made it. Corporate tax rate goes from 21% to 39%. When that happens, the corps will can your ass. But don’t worry, you have national medical coverage. Why is it small companies, that make up 63% of the nations companies and entrepreneurial spirit is never encouraged by the progressive left? Why is someone else’s money always the solution only to never be used as intended, time and time again?
Republican strategist Karl Rove said former President Trump needs to regain control of the campaign narrative, because he is in a “subordinate role” compared to Vice President Harris.
Rove outlined what both Trump and Harris need to do to boost their campaigns in the coming weeks during an interview with Fox News’s Neil Cavuto on Saturday. He said the week following the Democratic National Convention will be “critical” for Harris and that she needs “frame herself” and how she is going to attack Trump ahead of the general election.
“I think the attitudes by Labor Day are going to be really important. So she needs to come blowing out of that convention in Chicago and showing big crowds and lots of enthusiasm,” Rove said of Harris.
He then pivoted to Trump.
“He has difficulties too. And he’s got [to] frame Harris. He’s got to find the right message to go after her because, as Lucas said, we’ve got 101 days as of today, then he’s got to get back in control of the dialogue,” he said Saturday.
“He is clearly in a subordinate role here. He feels uncomfortable with it, I suspect, and he likes being the guy who’s setting the tempo of the campaign. And that’s not happening,” he said.
5:47 more stupidity.
LAX: When you get angry, because you can’t refute anything being said about Harris, then you resort to child like name calling, the pot just adds to your aggressiveness. It’s not a good luck for a 50 something year old man. Hopefully, the new job will help.
Fast: Harris is apparently changing all of her positions now, including now being in favor of fracking. The media of course is going along with the charade, just like they did with all was fine with Biden.
6:39 WTF is your malfunction? Other than being a dumbass?
The really annoying thing about Conservatives is that they think they know what is right for everyone else.
They’re really hung up on other people’s lives. When in fact they can’t even get their own lives together. Constantly whining about other people’s shit is annoying and weird.
LAX: I suggest some anger management sessions along with giving up the weed. In the meantime I will pray for you.
3b – watch out Footloose might threaten you with the star of david knuckles..
No Fights tonight!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqHeZ1mXXOA
6:55 I’m going to put you on ignore now.
Juice: Nah, that would just be the weed talking. I love Lax, he just can’t bring himself to admit that Harris is not qualified, and the Democrats are full of shite too. He wants to, but he can’t, and it makes him angry. Hopefully, the nee job will give him focus.
LAX: That’s ok. I will still pray for you. Peace.
7:06 not mad, just don’t like the GOP default which is to lie. Tired of the MTG show in Georgia – sick of the MAGA drama. Nope. Vote Kamala .
LAX – Both parties have you where they want you.
Two things.
1) Take the money out of politics
2) Corporations are not people
Juice Box says:
August 3, 2024 at 5:13 pm
“Guy who married the 50 year old cat lady spinster…”
In honor of this guy that now wants to be First Cuck, I nominate Lacks for the ‘Doug Emhoffs Wife’ award, as the guy most likely to have a cheating spouse…
“2) Corporations are not people”
I assume we agree that same holds true for unions — and that public employee unions should be illegal.
agree ???
You can organize and hire lawyers and negotiate.
Now you simpleton go jump off a cliff.
I want money out of politics…
8:34 dumber than dirt,
Or a bag of hammers…..
Markets are pretty red out there. Here and around the world.
I love the smell of napalm in the morning.