From Reuters:
US existing home sales slide to 14-year low; prices stay elevated
U.S. existing home sales dropped to a 14-year low in September, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and house prices.
The second straight monthly decline in home resales reinforced economists’ views that the slump in residential investment, which includes homebuilding, deepened in the third quarter. The housing market has struggled to rebound after being knocked down by a resurgence in mortgage rates in the spring.
Though supply has improved, entry-level homes remain scarce in most regions of the country, keeping home prices at levels that are unaffordable for most first-time buyers.
“It will take more rate cuts and more options to bring buyers back,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Home sales fell 1.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million units, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would be unchanged at a rate of 3.86 million units.
Sales likely reflected contracts signed a month or two ago, when mortgage rates were quite high. Mortgage rates initially dropped after the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last month, but they have risen over the past three weeks as solid economic data, including retail sales and annual revisions to national accounts, forced traders to abandon expectations for another 50-basis-point rate cut next month.
The rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.44% last week compared to 6.08% at the end of September, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
“We expect housing market activity to remain subdued well into 2025,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Tombs noted that the average interest rate on existing mortgages was about 4% compared to the current 6.5% rate for new mortgages.
“As a result, interest payments for most existing homeowners will jump if they move home, creating a huge incentive to stay put,” he said. “Only large Fed policy easing will meaningfully change this calculus.”
Home resales, which account for a large portion of U.S. housing sales, decreased 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in September. Sales fell 1.7% in the South, with some of the decline attributed to weakness in Florida following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene.
Sales in the state could remain depressed after it was slammed by Hurricane Milton weeks later.
The Northeast and Midwest also experienced a decrease in sales, but activity increased in the West.
re: “lowest level since October 2010?”
Overton window shifted.
The buyers are now waiting for the government to change policies and hand out free money $25,000 deposits and lower the interest rates.
Juice: And $2,500 gift certificates to Raymour & Flanagan.
Good to see the governor has it all figured out here.
https://njbiz.com/murphy-to-lead-nj-economic-mission-across-the-pond/?utm_term=Murphy%20to%20lead%20NJ%20economic%20mission%20%27across%20the%20pond%27&utm_campaign=Murphy%20to%20lead%20NJ%20economic%20mission%20null2018across%20the%20pondnull2019&utm_content=Editorial&utm_source=Act-On+Software&utm_medium=NJBIZ&ActOnUniqueID=NJBIZ177675
Maybe he’s dentist shopping.
It will take more rate cuts…
Rates drop, more buyers bid, prices rise even more, rage intensifies.
Perhaps I need to put out some Silk City Bourbon with the Chex Mix packages for the disgruntled youngsters. Though Silk City beverages are top notch, don’t want to hand out the good stuff. Maybe some Smirnoff will suffice.
Inventory is too low and prices are too high. The 40 year mortgage is the next fix for the US housing market.
He’s just looking to be around people with worse teeth.
Paid vacations. He has been to India, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Germany, Ireland, and Israel on these “Trade Missions”.
The 40 year mortgage is the next fix for the US housing market.
Why stop there? A 50-year mortgage anyone?
I think a 40 year car loan is in the works as well
I posted in this regard yesterday.
How can someone in that position make such an ignorant statement?
Drop in rates is a market move; rates cuts are monetary policy.
Monetary policy doesn’t control mortgage rates.
“It will take more rate cuts and more options to bring buyers back,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Hehe
BRT says:
October 24, 2024 at 10:11 am
He’s just looking to be around people with worse teeth.
AI says you can reduce your monthly payment $522.08 per month..That is enough for the second car payment as you will need two cars instead of the 1 you now have living in an apartment.
Here are the results using an online mortgage calculator: $400,000 Borrowed at 7.33%
30-year mortgage: Monthly payment: $2,816.28
40-year mortgage: Monthly payment: $2,294.20
ThThe monthly payment difference is $2,816.28 – $2,294.20 = $522.08.
Of course you would end up paying $275,304 more for the house by taking on 10 more years of payments, and would not really start paying down the principal for a long time. If you sold well you won’t be getting much out since they payments for first 15 years are mostly interest.
Juice,
Why I stress when talking to young people the value of a larger downpayment.
“If you sold well you won’t be getting much out since they payments for first 15 years are mostly interest.”
re: larger downpayment
They will have to get creative or we will see prices drop otherwise. What was it last time about 20% over four or five years?
40 year mortgages
Government down payment assistance of $25,000 or more.
Heck lets bring back pick a payment..
They will have to get creative or we will see prices drop otherwise.
Or we need the Chinese to bring us Covid 2.0 with a ten fold death rate for boomers.
I hope some of you purchased SOFI when I mentioned it back in January when it closed at 7.75.
Earnings are on Monday, but it hit $11.30 earlier today. Still 17% of float is short for some ungodly reason. If earnings are good, could be a double on Tuesday. Even if you sold today, ROI would be near 50% at a time when the Nasdaq, went up 17%. If you did buy, I would sell from a quarter to a half of it off tomorrow at the close just in case there is a surprise.
Libturd says:
January 23, 2024 at 9:45 am
Brown and Brown had fantastic earnings Lefty. Another beautiful safe pick and still quite undervalued IMO.
SOFI reports on the 29th.
good luck in the election American:
” We’ve been conditioned to think that only politicians can solve our problems. But at some point maybe we will all wake up and recognize that it was the politicians that created our problems”.
Young people ain’t having kids, no need for houses. Although, lots of old people in Bergen Co, at some point they will sell. Interestingly enough there are more houses in my town on the market now, then there were in the Spring/ Summer.
Claims numbers look good this morning. Perhaps, the Fed did not need that fat rate cut in September.
Government down payment assistance of $25,000 or more.
I shudder when I read this… along with tuition forgiveness and any other tax-extortion/debt-laden ‘solution’.
Fast: I don’t think they will ever get that 25k item passed. Give 25k prices increase by 25k. Who was the simpleton that came up with this idea?
3b,
That ‘proposal’ brings ponzi scheme tactics to a new level. Do the people receiving these gifts realize they’re taking on water faster than they can bail? Sure, taxing large corporations will cover it. (Insert eye roll here)
3b says:
October 24, 2024 at 11:23 am
Young people ain’t having kids, no need for houses.
Young people would have kids if boomer died and they could buy houses to live in.
Having children requires hope.
Boomers destroy hope. That’s why they are called the locust generation.
That 25k goes right into Boomer’s house when he/she sells it. It doesn’t help the buyer, it helps the seller.
Fast Eddie says:
October 24, 2024 at 11:28 am
Government down payment assistance of $25,000 or more.
I shudder when I read this… along with tuition forgiveness and any other tax-extortion/debt-laden ‘solution’.
Mortgage rates climbed for the fourth consecutive week, hitting the highest levels since August and adding a fresh chill to the housing market as it enters a seasonal slow period.
The average 30-year fixed interest rate crept up to 6.54% in the week through Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac data. Last week, it averaged 6.44%.
The beat goes on.
Young people ain’t having kids…
Carb heavy, glass-touching, soy consuming lifestyles reduce sex drives.
3B – Cozy for the childless is still expensive…
you ought-a know by now
who needs a house out in Hackensack?
is that all you get for your money?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/277-Howland-Ave-River-Edge-NJ-07661/38017440_zpid/
Tax accessor had their inspector come by just now. We do annual reassessments here, usually up in value from my experience.
As I gave him the house tour I asked him how much off the taxes if I knock down a bedroom….He laughed and said maybe $40,000 off the valuation. Hardly worth the effort to demolish it….
Real Estate is only relevant in Blue, Liberal, Democratic cities
Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, all Maga rightwing GOP controlled states have no demand. Nobody wants to live there. Only exception is maybe Miami.
“As a result, interest payments for most existing homeowners will jump if they move home, creating a huge incentive to stay put,” he said. “Only large Fed policy easing will meaningfully change this calculus.”
I saw Kamala on the CNN “town hall” briefly last night. Surprisingly the contradictions of her immigration rhetoric were being pointed out by Anderson Cooper, and Kamala wasn’t handling it well, retreating into her bizarre laughter and memorized talking points, seemingly panicking over it not being a love-fest.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13994979/Entitled-Anderson-Cooper-SLAMMED-infuriating-Kamala-Harris-Town-Hall.html
Then I heard a short bit of Donald Trump speaking about illegal immigrants in the same kind of way that Hitler talked about Jews, as if they were the key source of America’s problems (they aren’t).
I really can’t stand either candidate, each in their own way.
Chicago, Old Realtor, Fast Eddie;
What if what takes out the present residential real estate financing process is simply the dissappearance of Fannie/Freddie.
Bare with me. Fannie/Freddie failed during the financial crisis and the US Govt took ownership. Many alternatives were floated in Bloomberg, WSJ, Barrons, etc. The top ones were to make it a hybrid of European Covered Bonds with Canadian less than 5 yrs fixed/ balance ARM mortgages, with both products issued only by regulated banks.
Never say never, but Fannie/Freddie are not likely to fail now.
But you could have events like a MAGA Trifecta that will vote out of existence Fannie/Freddie along with Dept of Education, ACA, Fed Reserve independence. Others are Harris with an intransigent MAGA House/Senate or any other variation where the operations of the US Government’s sanity and safety is called to account by the financial markets – aka bond vigilantes.
Regardless of how, if the foundation of Fannie/Freddie go away, the 30 yrs mortgage goes away and residential real estate enters a new world.
We wouldn’t have had these housing problems if Obama had not granted immunity to all of the banking and appraising company a-holes.
He sucked so much banking cocc its a wonder he could even breathe.
That was the moment I realized I would never vote for another Democrat. Only reason I voted for that diccck head was because the other dolt didn’t think I deserved Medicare after taking care of old goats for 30 years. Suddenly the Repuke decided I wasn’t worthy of the same healthcare I had delivered with accuracy and pride.
F all of them.
Juice Howland Ave is a double yellow line, main drag feeds into Paramus going north, and KInderkamack Rd going south.
Hahah…what kind of nonsense is that.
30 yr will never go away.
Maga is about infringing on women’s reproductive rights via the Supreme Court and keeping Maga supporters dumber by eliminating Sec of Edu.
Fiscal Sanity is no where part of the maga agenda. Banksters will never allow it
It’s going to be utter insanity for the next few weeks. I’m tuning out.
Pointtoponder
Won’t happen. Wall Street makes money off of mortgage back securities
And if Fannie and Freddie went away so what. Australia has 30 year mortgages. Some are variable and change month to month, most are fixed for 1-5 years, like our ARMs.
Australia doesn’t have much of a secondary market to securities and trade mortgage securities, yet they keep setting record housing prices.
LAX: I am refraining from commenting on the election/ politics. I agree it could be crazy the next few weeks whichever way it goes. We will be in Europe over Election Day, so won’t have the onslaught of news etc.
The worst part of it is how misinformation gets more and more obvious, yet the media is so hungry to hook it’s claws into anything at this time.
Worst of all, it’s not like anyone is changing their minds at this point anyway.
The key for both shitty candidates the rest of the way will be to get out the vote. And by get out the vote, I don’t mean enter the Musk million dollar vote for Trump incentive. It’s been a super strange election season!
Maga is about infringing on women’s reproductive rights.
Well maybe if some of these female teachers thought they might get pregnant by their underage students this would stop happening.
Birth control gives you sexual freedom. To f little Johnny, your 6th grade student.
Great article on cheerleaders in the NYT paper yesterday.
Not what you are thinking you perverts.
It’s about how children and families were azz raped financially by your friendly hedge funds. How it is all a monopoly.
Oh, and it was when some of the rich rogue entities of this became perverted that the cracks and lawsuits began.
Money makes people into degenerates. P.Diddy, Epstein, Weinstein.
Place is like a sewer with one turd after another in the pipeline.
If Trump wins, I expect all democrat males to report to the nearest conversion station for Storm Trooper shirt and trouser measurements and to fill out forms for identification papers. You’ll then be notified as to where your housing district will be located as well as your employment level number.
Elon Musk made $36,000,000,000 today.
One day!
oh, I’m sure that all of this gets destroyed. Just like when you turn in your antique gun is a buyback. must be fun to watch them all sit and divvy this stuff up between each other.
Operation Take Back is a semi-annual event coordinated nationally by the United States Department of Justice, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in which law enforcement agencies at the state, county, and municipal level work collectively to host Operation Take Back across the nation.
The goal of Operation Take Back is to encourage the public to anonymously turn over unused, unwanted, or expired prescription medicine for proper disposal. All collected expired or unwanted prescription drugs will be properly destroyed them in safe and non-hazardous manner.
But what did he lose in the 6 months prior? Maybe he should up what he is paying people to vote for MAGA?
Tapestry is almost at 50 in after hours as FTC Judge says, no deal!
And now you know why it was a no brainer!
And capri is down about half.
Yup. I’ll sell tomorrow.
Most Violent States:
https://youtube.com/shorts/FM0b6rEUcZI?si=L8Knm6GdFp0VFnbF