Welcome to prediction season!

From Business Insider:

4 predictions for the US housing market in 2025, according to Zillow

Here are four predictions Zillow has for next year’s market.

1. Rising home sales

Olsen said the housing market was slowly becoming “unstuck,” a trend that should continue as home prices rise at a “modest” pace.

The firm predicts that home prices will rise by 2.6% in 2025, while existing-home sales will notch 4.3 million, up from the 4 million sales it expects this year.

“While affordability challenges will remain, buyers should expect more homes on the market, meaning more time to consider their options and more leverage in negotiations,” Olsen said.

2. Choppy mortgage rates

Zillow predicted that mortgage rates would bounce throughout next year.

The firm pointed to recent changes in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which fell this year before climbing to nearly 7% as markets adjusted their expectations for borrowing costs amid sticky inflation and a robust economy.

“More swings like this are expected in 2025, with refinancing sprints occurring during the dips,” Olsen said.

3. A buyer’s market in the Southwest

Zillow’s data indicates most “buyer’s markets” in the US are in the Southeast. But it said buyers could find more opportunities in the Southwest next year as more inventory in the region becomes “unstuck” and attracts homebuyers.

“These buyer’s markets should have the greatest number of movers, while sellers will feel the heat of competition as buyers will have more homes to choose from,” Olsen said.

But Olsen added that falling mortgage rates could prevent buyers from moving west, as lower borrowing costs stimulate demand and give sellers the upper hand.

4. Smaller homes

Zillow predicted that small homes would continue to rise in popularity. The firm said the word “cozy” appeared in 35% more Zillow listings this year than last year, a sign that buyers could be more interested in downsizing to smaller and more affordable abodes.

“Home values of small condos are finally stabilizing after remote work left downtowns more empty, even while home value appreciation of larger properties — though much stronger — continues to soften,” Olsen said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

70 Responses to Welcome to prediction season!

  1. Chicago says:

    Frist

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Ah, housing predictions… love this! I need to ply myself with more coffee before my fingers can move effectively. One thing I do know, there are various furry creatures bandying about so if I sell one day, the contract will demand that the little bastards are properly fed. And no Chex Mix, that’s for the Gen Z chickens, clucking on my lawn. I thought about putting out a Dyna-Glo Deluxe, 175,000 BTU, forced air, kerosene heater for the clucking minions during winter but that’s really a big ask. Anyway, the creatures must be fed and any offer under seven digits will be ridiculed with no counter offer.

  3. 3b says:

    Fast: You could put out a bouncy house on your front, so the young people have a place to meet and stay warm, while enjoying the Chex mix. I mean after all it is the season of sharing and caring.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    3b: Good point… the community thing, bringing people together, joy and vibes and all that jazz. Though, who wants to clean up pulverized Chex Mix every day in the deep crevices of the bouncy house? But, it could be a selling feature, for sure… an open house sort of thing.

  5. Libturd says:

    Remember to put it in your pool so your deep green lawn does not get damaged.

  6. Chicago says:

    Wholesome

    UnitedHealthcare CEO fatally shot outside of Hilton hotel

  7. Phoenix says:

    Sounds like some street justice came round. His policies probably killed a few thousand.

    Karma is a bitch

    United Health CEO Brian Thompson was shot and killed outside Manhattan’s Hilton Hotel on Wednesday.

  8. Phoenix says:

    Just wait till his family gets the bill from Mt. Sinai and his insurance denies his claim saying he died “out of network”

  9. White Trash Eddie says:

    “While affordability challenges will remain, buyers should expect more homes on the market, meaning more time to consider their options and more leverage in negotiations,” Olsen said.

    There is no leverage in the NJ/NY/CT sphere. Buy what we offer for the price that we dictate or start looking up by the Erie Triangle.

  10. White Trash Eddie says:

    As for rates, ebb and flow will be within 100 basis points which really does nothing for more inventory. What you’re seeing now is what will be for the foreseeable future. Housing is an elite asset now… the same as what was owning a German import in the 70s, strictly for the “haves” crowd.

  11. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,

    Be careful heading to the mailbox this morning. Someone might suspect you are the CEO of Chex Mix.

  12. White Trash Eddie says:

    Here ya go! Move in ready at 129K. Rockin’ it, baby!

    https://www.trulia.com/home/1149-e-28th-st-erie-pa-16504-52569600

  13. White Trash Eddie says:

    315K, in the ‘burbs, peace and quiet, WFH, a 3bd/2bth place to call home:

    https://www.trulia.com/home/11282-firethorn-rd-wattsburg-pa-16442-9515600

  14. White Trash Eddie says:

    32K down, 1,200 per month in PITI. A score, baby! Look at that garage/workshop thing… I can see that Dyna-Glo 220,000 BTU heater firing away while you chisel some oak!

  15. 3b says:

    Fast: You can have the young ones chose a clean up team on a weekly basis. They can assign a leader, and split the work. This will make them feel empowered, and believe they are making a difference.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    We are the world,
    We are the children,
    We are the ones who make a brighter day,
    So let’s start giving.

    Ahh… empowerment and making a difference!

  17. Phoenix says:

    Un zen we flew away. Hehe.

    A Russian warship has fired at a German helicopter over the Baltic Sea- sparking new WW3 escalation fears, it has been reported.

    The crew of the Russian ship fired signal ammunition, the German Press Agency in Brussels has learned.

    According to the German newspaper Bild, the warning shots were fired at the NATO reconnaissance aircraft.

  18. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    Cult rituals are interesting to watch from a far.

  19. Chicago says:

    The shooter of the UnitedHealth employee was quoted as saying “from the river to the sea, my meds will be free”.

    The shooter is described as a diminutive Irishman, and was last seen Riverdancing toward Penn Station eating a potato and drinking Jameson’s. He boarded a NJ Transit train stopping at Fair Lawn.

  20. Fabius Maximus says:

    Double standards at work as always.

    https://bsky.app/profile/juddlegum.bsky.social/post/3lcihs7gt522u
    Judd Legum‪@juddlegum.bsky.social‬

    1. Media outlets have show little interest in an $18 million payment from Justin Sun, a Chinese national being prosecuted by the SEC for fraud, to President-elect Trump

    It wasn’t always this way

    Consider how the NYT covered the alleged influence of foreign cash on then-candidate Hillary Clinton

  21. Phoenix says:

    The police have 4 million possible suspects, everyone this guy screwed over, those he was going to rat on, and now the Hollywood Fire Department. Hehe.

    UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was accused of insider trading and fraud by the Department of Justice before he was assassinated on Wednesday in Manhattan.

    Thompson, 50, was shot dead in what NYPD officials believe was a targeted attack as he exited the Hilton hotel before an investor conference. His killer remains on the loose.

    Last year the DoJ launched a probe into whether the nation’s biggest insurer, led by Thompson, was unfairly restricting competitors and running a monopoly.

    Then in October, the City of Hollywood Firefighters’ Pension Fund in May initiated a complaint against the company against Thompson and other executives, accusing the CEO of failing to tell investors about the federal probe before he unloaded over 31 percent of his stock, taking in $15.1 million in proceeds.

    In legal documents, investigators said that Thompson and other company execs sold over $117 million worth of UnitedHealth common stock during the four-month period when insiders knew about the federal antitrust investigation but the public did not.

    The City of Hollywood Firefighters’ Pension Fund had filed a similar complaint in May against UnitedHealth, proposing a shareholder class action suit.

  22. Phoenix says:

    Hold my beer says:
    December 4, 2024 at 12:23 pm
    Phoenix

    Cult rituals are interesting to watch from a far.

    The irony in the song choice is what got me. Hehe.
    Maybe they are just a kinky group with walk in closets.

  23. Phoenix says:

    450 billion projected in 2025?

    Guess he had a talk with Trump so knew that the percentage of people he was going to fleece is now over 70 percent. Oh, and on the press report the police stated he was shot in the back. Isn’t that kinda what he does to his customers?

    “He was slated to speak at an investor meeting at the Hilton Hotel soon after the shooting. According to a release from United Healthcare on Tuesday, he would announce the company’s hugely profitable 2025 financial outlook, including expected revenues upwards of $450 billion.”

  24. Boomer Remover says:

    If this happens a few more times the personal security industry will get a big boost, and maybe top brass will think twice before making certain decisions?

  25. EX says:

    Prediction: I think that Trump and his team of sycophants will quickly tank the economy and the American people will suffer as a result. But it won’t be the upper earners, it’ll be the D students that voted for Trump. Hate and Xenophobia are never good platforms to run on and yet here we are. I give him 6 months until the Dow plummets, undesirable communities continue to empty out and smart people with options head toward the Coasts.

  26. Chicago says:

    Fuck you Jew

  27. EX says:

    1:48 and to you sir, a very good day!!

  28. EX says:

    1:19 If it’s open season on CEO’s maybe a few of them will finally earn their pay?

  29. SomeOne says:

    Chicago, you should be specific about your angle… Is it the Evangelical, second coming version (after they milked the zionist angle)? The German version? The Palestinian version? Generic anti-semitic version?

    The anti-zionist and anti-bibi crow tend to be way less abusive.

  30. SomeOne says:

    Chicago, of course, there is a libtard, self-deprecating version too…

  31. RentL0rd says:

    Media is currently scared of Trump. Just like in other countries run by thugs. Just look at India (Modi), Indonesia (Subianto) and Philippines (Marcos Jr, son of a dictator). Also a bunch in Latin America including El salvador and Bolivia.

    We are not exceptional after all. Thank you MAGA

  32. Phoenix says:

    just don’t mess with the CEO from Walmart. Guy gets me some great deals I like him.

  33. RentL0rd says:

    Ex, you are being very generous with 6 months.

    I don’t think even Trump gives himself 6 months… the only thing that will delay the timeline is the infighting and the inefficiency in execution of the biggest heist ever.

  34. Phoenix says:

    this Pegasus thing just keeps cropping up. i’d be OK with it if somebody would give me a Copy. Guess it could be useful.

    https://www.wired.com/story/iverify-spyware-detection-tool-nso-group-pegasus/

  35. TheUSAAfterOrangeTurd WillLookLikeFatEddiesHouseSewerLine says:

    Agree, with Ex 100%.

    OrangeTurd is a known quantity now and just like a happy ending place you pay upfront and your wish is fullfilled. More importantly the crowd that is around him will sell out to anyone paying the price. This will demoralize and note this demoralization is actually what you want if you are a top crook with any law enforcement below you, which in turn they themselves will sell out to highest bidder because if you are DEA, custom or border patrol and your boss is a known crook, might as well get make money for yourself out of the situation. OrangeTurd’s crooked crowd are not smart enough to do the crooking right, like the old NYPD pay off. The pay off went to the Captain running the precint and he paid down the respective underling and it went down till each patrolman got its beek wet.

    Finally, the situation in Brazil and Mexico is special in that both are run by 70’s style old fashioned leftist from the Yankee Go Home period, so they are going to react to him by ideologically driven economic, which means avoiding the dollar if they can.

    The previous Mexican president AMLO took out the 20% tariff for auto imports from China. China now dominates the Mexican market with ICE/EV cars. Plus both Brazil and Mexico and the rest of the countries down there are benefiting from the Chinese criminal gangs money laundering system. This system takes chinese citizens yuan and out of the country into dollars in the US by giving them the USD that they get from cartels that want to launder their USD into local currencies in their countries. They get the local currencies by selling imported chinese products at lowest clearing price to raise the local currency needed to pay the cartels their money. In short, they are subsidizing imported products into latin america.

    The United Health guy is what happens in Plutocracies/Oligarchies. Only way little guy us able to collect some pound of flesh is sporadic targeted violence.

  36. TheUSAAfterOrangeTurd WillLookLikeFatEddiesHouseSewerLine says:

    My biggest prediction with 40% by 12/31/2026 and 100% by 12/31/2028.

    — Will have an American Tianamen Square event. Mass casualty of civilians mowed down recklessly.

  37. Phoenix says:

    Mowed down by who? The US Government? Hehe

    TheUSAAfterOrangeTurd WillLookLikeFatEddiesHouseSewerLine says:
    December 4, 2024 at 2:57 pm
    My biggest prediction with 40% by 12/31/2026 and 100% by 12/31/2028.

    — Will have an American Tianamen Square event. Mass casualty of civilians mowed down recklessly.

  38. Phoenix says:

    You wouldn’t have gotten Trump had you not put Kamala on the ballot.

    Now that is a fact.

    Like F’n Gravity. Now go to the local vape shop and take a long toke.

  39. Phoenix says:

    Yeah, this will continue to slide. But don’t sell your old furniture on Facebook Marketplace without paying a tax you proletariat criminal.

    The Biden administration has doubled its estimate of how much money it can collect by cracking down on an arcane tax avoidance scheme.

    Months after saying it expects to collect at least $50 billion over the next decade by stopping large business partnerships from manipulating the taxable value of assets or depreciating the same assets repeatedly for tax deductions, the Treasury Department has quietly updated its forecast to more than $100 billion.

  40. Phoenix says:

    Bet United Healthcare doesn’t lower it’s flag to half staff when one of it’s secretaries dies.

  41. TraitorJoe says:

    Was there anything in this banana republic regime more fitting than Joe running off to Angola right after the pardon?

    He’s totally ignored and humiliated at the summit in South America a few weeks ago. Of course he was given the red carpet treatment over there. He’s their hero.

  42. 3b says:

    Ex: I don’t think it’s just the uneducated as you say, ( and I think that term turns a lot of people off). Trump won a few of the Uber wealthy Bergen Co towns including Alpine,Franklin Lakes, Park Ridge, and Ramsey. These are all very wealthy towns with very wealthy highly educated people. Additionally, in some of the other wealthy/ educated Bergen Co towns, Trump only lost by a small margin, and in others although he lost by 200 or more, he still did very well. Again, these are all wealthy/ highly educated, lawyers, doctors, Wall Streeters in these towns. Ironically, it was in the less educated and lower income towns where Harris won or did well. Harris only won Bergen Co as a whole by 3 percentage points.

  43. Juice box says:

    United Healthcare ceo, sound like a professional hit…

  44. RentL0rd says:

    I am not sure who brought up BOIR, but breaking news:

    BOI / FinCEN blocked by Texas court.

    As blue as I am, I like it. But I ‘m sure it will let some criminals get away without transparency.

  45. RentL0rd says:

    My accountant was charging $300 for filing it – when it is a simple form that can be filed online.

    Sorry accountants!

  46. chicagofinance says:

    A bit dirty methinks……

    In May, the City of Hollywood Firefighters’ Pension Fund initiated a complaint against Thompson and other executives, accusing the CEO of failing to tell investors about the federal probe before he unloaded over 31 percent of his stock, taking in $15.1 million in proceeds.

    In legal documents, the fund said Thompson and other company execs sold over $117 million worth of UnitedHealth common stock during the four-month period when insiders knew about the federal antitrust investigation but the public did not.

    The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, America’s largest state public pension fund, then joined that complaint in October and filed an amendment seeking a jury trial against the UnitedHealth execs including Thompson.

  47. Hold my beer says:

    Rentlord

    It takes about 5-6 minutes to fill out a BOIR.

  48. RentL0rd says:

    I know!

  49. RentL0rd says:

    Corporate Transparency Act
    Preliminarily Blocked Nationwide

    On December 3, 2024, the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) and its Implementing Regulations (Reporting Rule), which require non-exempt business entities to report beneficial owner information to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the U.S. Treasury Department, were preliminarily blocked nationwide by a Texas federal court.

    Judge Amos L. Mazzant of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas, Sherman Division, issued the injunction at the request of the plaintiffs in Texas Top Cop Shop Inc. v. Garland. The plaintiffs in this lawsuit seek to enjoin the government from enforcing the CTA and its Reporting Rule arguing, among other things, that they intrude upon States’ rights, exceed Congress’ authority to regulate interstate and foreign commerce, and are, therefore, unconstitutional.

    In a 79-page Memorandum Opinion and Order, Judge Mazzant ruled:

    The CTA is likely unconstitutional as outside of Congress’ power. Because the Reporting Rule implements the CTA, it is likely unconstitutional for the same reasons. . . [T]he Court GRANTS Plaintiff’s Motion for a Preliminary Injunction. Therefore, the CTA… is hereby enjoined. Enforcement of the Reporting Rule… is also hereby enjoined, and the compliance deadline is stayed… Neither may be enforced, and reporting companies need not comply with the CTA’s January 1, 2025, BOI reporting deadline pending further order of the Court.

    For now, based on this Memorandum Opinion and Order, BOIR filings with FinCEN under the CTA need not be made. Unfortunately, this may not be the end of this case, a permanent resolution of the constitutionality of the CTA and its Reporting Rule, or the last word on the requirement to make BOIR filings.

  50. RentL0rd says:

    An anonymous post on the UHC CEO murder


    I bought a company that had been owned by self-described ‘Russian mafia.’ They had used it as a front for money laundering and insurance fraud. I discovered all this after I bought it, of course. In the weeks following my purchase, we received hundreds of checks from UHC for Medicare services for patients that had never come to our optical stores. These services were purportedly provided by several cardiologists and dermatologists at a Pearle Vision store, which was absurd. The curious thing was, every one of those patients had been actual patients of those actual doctors, but they were all dead when the purported services were provided at this optical store.

    The USPS referred me to the OIG. The OIG referred me to UHC to investigate the fraud, and UHC bounced me between 12 different fraud units, all of which claimed that a different unit handled this type of fraud. In the end, nobody investigated anything and we continued to receive hundreds of checks for these fictional services to dead people. So, it makes me wonder if this hit had anything to do with the Russian mafia folks who apparently are allowed to defraud the US government and are aided and abetted by UHC policies and practices.

    Wow!

  51. EX says:

    3:41 fair enough. Republicans being republicans. Just never my trip.

  52. BRT says:

    I do feel bad for the United Health CEO, but not as much as I should. In this country, causing death with the stroke of a pen or the delete button a keyboard is not viewed as immoral because you only set the chain of events that led up to it in motion.

  53. Juice Box says:

    re: “An anonymous post” and the government “USPS referred me to the OIG. The OIG referred me to UHC to investigate the fraud, and UHC bounced me between 12 different fraud units”

    Sounds like a job for Elon and Vikek

  54. grim says:

    Go long corporate security…

    CEOs are about to spend billions on bodyguards, armored transport, PI and Intelligence Services, etc.

  55. Chicago says:

    Lord: doesn’t it feel like misinformation intended to discredit the system and sow paranoia? Just a thought.

  56. grim says:

    Doubtful it was the Russian mob.

    My money is on someone who was bankrupted by medical debt and UHC policy, probably in a way that impacted their family, kids, etc. Maybe they lost a loved one to a procedure that was denied. In a fair world, it would be easy to narrow down the list of suspects, but in this world, the pool of UHC policy holders that fit this criteria is probably massive.

  57. Hold my beer says:

    How does his death impact the DoJ lawsuit? If he died before the trial for insider trading even started is his estate liable for any damages?

  58. Boomer Remover says:

    The country’s reaction to this guy’s shooting is a canary in a coal mine moment.

    Each the rich! Except for me, I’m just a schmuck trying to make it.

  59. UnitedHealthIsAsNastyAsItGetsInCorporateAmerica says:

    Is not just an eat the rich, guillotine the billionaires/c suite crowd.

    It’s also that United Health is a rapacious, nasty company that has rigged everything in its favor, in an industry that barely exist outside a few countries and should not exist in this country and did not exist until 1984 as for profit entities.

    They got their hands into every little knook and cranny of the health system to put up a toll and extract every cent possible. Their big racquet was their subsidiary software company that dictated the payment per procedure for the whole industry doing the equivalent of what that Apartment Rental software company was doing by averaging out cost, but instead of increasing payment the software was rigged to the insurance companies favor by decreasing payments. So unless you were a big hospital system that negotiated something better with them you got screwed.

    Add to that Optum Pharmaceutical Benefit Managers – the black box of the pharma world. Plus Optum Physician Groups and Medical offices, they got into this after the ACA capped their profits from providing insurance in the ACA market.

    Their just a nasty, but very profitable company.

  60. Juice Box says:

    Grim – Shooter looks like a pro….

  61. RentL0rd says:

    7:42

    My friend’s daughter manages yachts for Russian oligarchs… in the US. I have heard a few stories.

    So, when someone says “Russian mob”, I take it at face value.

    I am with you about a disgruntled patient or family of the patient. But the murder is too professional for a distraught sick American.

    Cancer is a much worse way to die than a gunshot though.

  62. Juice Box says:

    Pffff – ask about the Ruskies down here. My cleaning lady quit working for one, after 2022 invasion and well confiscation of wealth that was occurring they went full paranoid with guns galore, expecting either Putin’s goons or the FBI to kick down the door with guns a blazing.

    The local polish carpenter and his Ukrainian helper won’t work for them either anymore so they say…..

  63. Juice Box says:

    I am just pointing out what sling blade Grim has forgotten which is the Sanctions…it’s hurts them here as well. You can bet anyone that fucks with their rackets gets a bullet….

  64. BRT says:

    Health insurance companies play dirty all around. At one point, Blue Cross Blue Shield stop paying my father’s practice because they changed their billing codes so the doctors were now using the “wrong codes”. Some caught on faster than others but when they owed you 100k, the game they played was, take us to court and we’ll cost you even more….so most doctors just took the loss.

  65. Boomer Remover says:

    1. Relative of patient who died as a direct result of denial of care.
    2. Relative of patient whose care took everything away from a family (financially).
    3. Hit ordered by wife who is doing the pool boy.

    Gotta be one of these.

  66. BRT says:

    There are 10,000 plus graduates from Rutgers alone who receive funding from various grants.

    But hey, who cares about educating the next generation, right?

    And it’s going great based on unemployment rates. Look at other countries.

    I know, I was one of them. Funded by the NIH. I could tell you that 50% of those on NIH grants probably should have failed out of grad school but instead were pushed through to make the grant appear successful. They weren’t educated at all. And yes, now they have PhDs and are free to screw up things wherever they work.

    At the time, Corzine cut $169 million in funding from Rutgers in his first year of office. I thought it was a death sentence to the University. Fast forward just a few years, I was wrong. You campuses are drowning in money, and they don’t need any more. They have a gigantic bloated bureaucracy of admin, but I’m wasting my time. You probably think they all do a great job. Even the Ivy League presidents that get caught plagiarizing.

  67. RentL0rd says:

    You talk as if getting a Ph. D is a walk in the park. And the long drawn academic life of a post doc working for pittance, then the struggle to get an offer, much less tenure ship.

    You know what I am saying.. No guy/ gal in his right mind would opt to go down the academic line for money. You know it.

    Nothing wrong with encouraging via funding.

    90% are immigrants who don’t qualify for most funding. But you know what I am saying.

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