From the NY Post:
Here’s where rents are rising the fastest in the New York area
New Yorkers may feel like the rent hikes never end, but it turns out that Newark, New Jersey residents are at the biggest disadvantage.
Just a quick train ride from Lower Manhattan, Newark had the fastest-growing rent in the New York Metropolitan area in February, according to a recent New York Metro Area Report by the online rental marketplace Zumper. Median rents for one-bedrooms in the New Jersey transportation hub grew 16.7% year-over-year.
A significant year-over-year decrease in rental prices earned Bayonne, New Jersey a spot at the bottom of the list. The small city is just across the bay from Newark and only a stone’s throw from Staten Island, but median rent in Bayonne plummeted in February by 15.6% year-over-year.
A one-bedroom in Bayonne, as of last month, will run you about $1,890.
While Newark and Bayonne are currently poles apart in annual rent growth, both cities were recently identified as the top two most affordable locations to buy a home near Manhattan.
Upstate Kingston clocked in as the cheapest city in the metropolitan area for renters, with a median price of $1,500 for a one-bed — though Kingston is not located off a commuter rail line. The former state capital is closely followed by Bridgeport, Connecticut — which is — at $1,650 per month and Paterson, New Jersey at $1,730 per month.
But the metropolitan area’s most expensive places to rent endure, unlikely to budge — NYC topped the median rent list at $4,330 for a one-bedroom, succeeded by New Jersey hotspots Hoboken, at $3,510, and Jersey City, at $3,050.
According to Zumper, you’re better off renting outside of those three cities. The median one-bedroom rent across the entire New York metropolitan area was just $2,486 in February.
1
Turns out Putin was never interested in a ceasefire. Some leaks saying that Putin’s demands have remained entirely unchanged. US went to Russia to talk. Putin puts on camo and goes to Kursk, sends a cruise missile to the port. Nice snub. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has Russian media giddy and laughing at us every single night. Would imagine our power to negotiate anything right now with Russia is effectively zero. At this point I think Putin believes he has completely won, and not just against Ukraine.
Suspect this is why US completely backtracked on the Ukraine intelligence shutdown minutes after Ukraine said they would ceasefire.
Putin cosplaying in combat gear? Last time he was spotted in a military uniform was 20 years ago. News says the Ukrainian effort in Kursk Russia has failed most of the land has been taken back, so Putin the war time ” dear leader” is winning and in Russian media is busy projecting him as the winner.
US Envoy just landed in Moscow this morning… Talks to begin today….Who is the say the talks are already over?
I am pretty sure the Russian Oligarchs and Putin himself want all of their stuff back by now. The Summer is coming and without their superyachts like the 460-foot Scheherazade they cannot sail the Mediterranean in style. Putin’s yacht BTW is still being maintained by the Italians they know the war will end and they want their yacht business to continue it has been decimated by the loss of all the Russian orders for new yachts and maintenance etc. Again the Europeans are holding hundreds of billions of Russian assets including cash…All the while collecting taxes and fees on those assets. If the Europeans really had an interest in making sure Ukraine came out the victory here they would go the extra mile and scrap and sell the assets including the hundreds of billions the Belgians are holding. Instead they are hedging for Ukraine’s capitulation.
EU and it’s Parliament is worse than the politics here in the US House.. It would be illegal to take the Russian assets they say for years now. France says they might send boots on the ground, they might extend their nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Nice tough talk, but actually take the Russian money and fund the war? Nope.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/12/european-parliament-mulls-seizure-of-russian-assets-to-help-ukraine
UPDATED!
THU, MAR 13 2025
7:35 AM EDT
Stock futures slip as markets remain on edge ahead of another key inflation report:
Live updates
Lisa Kailai Han
Pia Singh
should German Gary be allowed take spot 1?
It’s 11 am there
6:50 and 7:26,
Putin can do what he wants. He owns America.
“Give me your smog, your toxic waste,
Your belching plants of oil and paste,
Send forth your sludge, your acid rain,
Your poisoned streams, your tar-streaked plains.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/epa-rollback-environmental-regulations-zeldin-rcna196112
I told y’all Putin wasn’t gonna back down. It’s not like you can trust any deal Trump makes.
America had a chance to make a deal with Russia years ago. It didn’t.
Keep playing until the nukes fly. Every day a bit closer.
Well, at least then I will be put out of my misery.
BREAKING NEWS!
Trump threatens to put 200% tariff on French champagne and other EU spirits
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 13 2025
8:19 AM EDT
This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.
Very Stable Genius,
I‘ve been up many hours already doing productive stuff. Scheduled a metal construction company to replace a metal garden gate and build a terrace roof. Putting money into the German economy to keep it going. We change to summer time on 30 March. BTW, there is a huge labor shortage here. I need to get a few projects finished this year while there are still enough qualified workers around! If the Bundeswehr builds up I have no idea how the military will expand and Germany will also have enough manpower for the civilian sector.
Once the pollutants are out – it is impossible to get rid of them. Just see what’s happening in Delhi or Shanghai.
Trump threatens to put 200% tariff on French champagne and other EU spirits
Well great, now how are we supposed to celebrate this?
Grim’s hooch?
grim says:
March 13, 2025 at 8:32 am
Trump threatens to put 200% tariff on French champagne and other EU spirits
Well great, now how are we supposed to celebrate this?
On the bright side though, we’re not all dead yet. So there’s that. Had a few really nice days this week. Weekend will be warm (albeit wet). It’s been great getting outside in the afternoons.
French Champaign? So Dom Pérignon goes from $250 a bottle to $750? Why is Trump trying to hurt Rich People and Jay-Z?
Because Trump’s Champale is the best Champagne ever, why would you drink anything else?
More likely he picked it because that’s probably the most French thing he could think of in the heat of the moment. If he put a tariff on French cars we’d all celebrate, but nobody really buys them anyway.
It’s reciprocal for the 50% tax on American whiskeys in the EU
If they drop their tariff, we drop ours. It sounds Like a free trade position to me.
It’s been 24 hrs.
Is the Russia/Ukraine war over yet?
OrangeFaceUltaBeautyMakeupGuy whatcha doin’?
Go grab Putin by his pussy and make it happen like you said you would.
Hehe.
Why do you guys believe any crap that comes out of this administration?
Markets will continue their collapse as Trump stupidity continues.
We are already seeing some of the idiocy that I said would occur as Trump gets more and more desperate.
Still waiting on the Greenland and Canada acquisition as well as the Israeli and Ukraine peace deals to actually occur. Add to the Trump Show lie list, no income taxes on up to 150K in income. Government is going to buy Teslas though and the Musk Rat promises to double production as sales continue abysmally. Also, Trump declares attacks on Tesla dealerships acts of domestic terrorism as he pardons police killers.
The shitshow continues. On the bright side, keep collecting dry powder. Trump’s going to provide you with one of the greatest investible moments in our lifetimes. The moment midterms occur and the indiscriminate lunacy and lies stop, you can rest assured the market will jump 50 to 100% within a year. The trouble is, will we survive as a country until then.
WSJ article (link below) about the modest reversal of DEI policies at UF, where Libturd’s kid goes.
Fewer nonsense race-baiting classes to graduate is a good thing. Can’t believe they have 60k students at that school now. And I think the Santa Fe College nearby also has 12k.
The article sounds like it was mostly written via interviews with fearful leftists upset about losing their previously privileged positions of power in universities. The WSJ journalists are more left than the editorial board, and it shows in their angle for this article.
It would take two generations to regrow from the rot that humanities/ethnic studies has become, for there are hardly any rational teachers to teach the next wave of teachers that aren’t pervaded by cultural Marxism. It’s not enough for Trump/DeSantis to ban DEI, humanities education has to actually rediscover reason, reality, individualism, liberty as values to be cherished, rather than relics to hate alongside America. Trump is not about intellectual rebirth, for sure.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/florida-college-university-dei-trump-desantis-867789bb?mod=hp_lead_pos7
Fries will be next
New for sale sign on the corner house. Homeowners moved in 2 1/2 years ago paid $777k listing is now $999K. Some improvements siding, windows etc. House looks move in ready haven’t seen the family in a few weeks, no cars in driveway and their son is a classmate of my kid. The grandfather passed away recently and had a nice waterfront spread a few towns away. I think they inherited the house and have already moved in and have changed schools etc. Not having a mortgage is like winning the lottery. They will probably upgrade the boat they were left in the will too.
Libturd,
I’ve basically just hit my target for retirement assets, where a 3.5% annual withdrawal rate coupled with reasonable investment returns over the long term should be sustainable. The problem is that especially in US equities, long term real expected returns stink, at only about 2% real, and markets could fall or stagnate over the next 5 to 10 years, surprising people the same way that housing markets surprised mortgage markets and housing investors back in 2008. The biggest risk in early retirement is that markets tank in your early years, forcing you to withdraw funds to spend before markets have a chance to rebound. A rerun of the 1970s when stocks went nowhere, bonds fell, and inflation (costs of living) rose.
So I’m sitting on about 70% cash (ST treasury money market fund), 15% bonds, 15% equities at the moment. Breaking all the rules. Have been thinking of starting to deploy into non-US equities that have been producing minimal real returns over the past 10 years, but which offer maybe 4% to 5% real prospective returns due to lower valuation. But those could easily fall alongside a US stock market rout, even if to a lesser degree.
TIPS offering over 1.5% real returns are an ok safe haven, perhaps, won’t get rich, but are one of the few instruments that directly hedge against CPI rises. But needs to go into a tax-deferred account.
25%+ market drop and I’d start deploying into a more normal asset allocation.
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2023/03/10/the-basics-of-fire/
No one, bold move. How did you make those decisions? Who advised you – if I may ask?
Have you figured out your life expectancy without Medicare? I know plenty of old folks that would not be around without it.
NoOne,
Read a great article on the impact of a market crash on your retirement timing. You are correct, a crash or even stagnant market does make a huge difference to the quality of your retirement pretty much due to the impact on compounding caused by the lack of early interest growth. Now if you were me, you wouldn’t fret and would just work another couple of years to make up the difference. The other option I’d take is to take slighty greater risks, which you are already considering. Truth be told, the Trump effect, like Covid, the fiscal crisis and the tech bubble will appear as just another bump in the long-term upward trajectory of our markets. I would even posit that Trump’s government shrinking should yield some positivity eventually. Really hoping these on and off tariffs are temporary deal fodder and not permanent actions. If the latter, the Trump dip will be much greater, but sooner the Dems get back into office as the tariffs will completely fuck the lower and middle income voters, the one’s MAGA fooled to get into power.
Really, if I were you, I would push another two years and practice your own brand of personal austerity until the market at least returns to historical midlines 16,75o on the Nasdaq.
BTW, I too noticed the impossible value of European stocks. They’ve been losing for like 15 years straight compared to our domestic markets. The problem here though, is that it may be systemic. Socialist governments + lazier workforce = less GDP and/or worse bottom lines. Though, happier workers with better work/quality of life mix results.
When you figure it out, let me know what you plan to do. I’m kinda in the same boat.
Lib – re: “believe any crap”
Beep Beep Beep Beep Bop……..
The truth always lies somewhere in between.
1) We have a Ukraine ceasefire on the table and an envoy in Moscow now meeting to work out a deal. I hope at best they can get a least a ceasefire going, and more importantly a dialog. We are now in year four of this war. I need not remind everyone here how many trillions of dollars and tens of thousands of lives lost and those injured over the last 24 years on nonstop war in the Middle East.
2) The Tariff rollercoaster. Americans need a ride on this Roller Coaster to learn how fair trade works. The EU for example. They have refused for decades to enact a dedicated free trade agreement with the US. They outright ban US goods and add tariffs to all US made products heavily. Canada..Go up NY State and ask the dairy farmers there about free trade as tankers loaded with Canadian Milk barrel down the NY Thruway and flood our markets. Mexico is at least fair with our US Mexico trade agreement. They will be fine. China….they are now protesting too we are too hard on them for calling out the precursor chemicals making it to the drug labs? China will end it as it’s really a tiny portion of their exports. The ding in the economy will be a full percentage point quickly if we stop buying their goods.
Yes he is an Orange Man + Yes he is Bad = Orange man Bad!!!
Beep Beep Bop…..that’s all folks.
RentLord,
I advise myself, I’ve been a global investment analyst and institutional portfolio manager for over 30 years, have a couple of finance degrees, the CFA, and access to systems like HOLT to give me some inputs about long term real expected returns.
No professional personal advisor would ever recommend such radical market timing.
And it’s a mugs game from year to year. But every time in past decades that valuations have been this rich in the US, was followed by at least 7 years of compounded poor subsequent returns. Some people use the “Cyclically Adjusted PE” to give similar signals. And in past decades since the early 80s they had the more beneficial backdrop of constantly falling long term interest rates. That’s probably over given that rising debt/gdp is starting to reach a limit of what the government is easily able to borrow to finance consumption.
Vanguard gives a not so dissimilar bleak 10 year return outlook for US stocks, about 4% nominal returns with about 2% inflation equals about 2% real. Lots of people jeer at this saying this forecast has repeatedly “cried wolf” but eventually the wolf actually appears.
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
Timothy Morris, 56, of Bayville (Ocean County), who served as NJDOC’s Range Master, is accused of illegally ordering excess ammunition and selling it on the secondary market, Attorney General Matthew J. Platkin announced.
Morris allegedly pocketed more than $475,000 through this scheme while attempting to conceal his financial transactions, prosecutors said.
Morris, who has held his Range Master position since 2008, was responsible for ordering and maintaining all ammunition used at four NJDOC gun ranges, including:
Annandale (Hunterdon County)
Browns Mills (Burlington County)
Maurice River (Cumberland County)
Sea Girt (Monmouth County)
He also oversaw ammunition at the Special Operations Group Headquarters in Trenton, authorities said.
Since at least January 2019, Morris allegedly ordered excess ammunition and sold it for cash and check payments made directly to himself from a gun supply store, officials said.
Morris also allegedly structured bank transactions to avoid triggering federal reporting requirements for deposits over $10,000, prosecutors said.
Authorities claim he cashed multiple checks in small increments to evade detection and avoid suspicious activity reports at financial institutions.
Attorney General Platkin condemned the alleged scheme, calling it a betrayal of taxpayers and public trust.
“As the allegations in this case show, corruption is an expensive drain on public resources and victimizes taxpayers,” Platkin said. “The defendant allegedly abused his law enforcement position to steal from the public, and he tried to conceal it with financial transactions designed to fly under the radar.”
NoOne,
I’m not buying the frequently repeated pessimistic long-term predictions. Maybe two years of pain before we are back to the races. Tech continues to develop at breakneck pace and there will be a lot of winners in the AI and automation sectors to drive continued market gains. Throw in Trump’s austerity measures, which no one in modern economic history has a clue as to how this will impact market performance, but noise aside, you would think it would be positive.
Had no clue you were a Wall Street suit. I love arguing with analysts. They are so frequently driven by the flavor of the month, which is not surprising as they have to prognosticate on something. But most of it’s noise. Since I work at a printer, I am able to print long banners off of our roll-fed presses. I once sent an analyst a twenty yard banner that had nothing on it but a historical chart of the three major indexes. He was arguing with me that the Nasdaq would not reach the peaks it hit during the tech bubble in our lifetimes. I argued we’d probably be there in five years, but definitely in ten. He hung that dumb banner up on a wall on his office floor, at least long enough, to send me a picture of it too. I told him to hold on to it for when I was proven correct. He didn’t last there long enough to see it through. It did take 15 years, so we were both proven wrong.
Nonetheless, ignore the noise.
Lib,
Yes, a lot of European stocks are cheap for a reason. And the rare “growth stocks” tend to get nearly as expensive as their US peers, due to scarcity.
Yes, I’m still working for the reasons you cite, and I’m still able to put away some more savings while I do, even with my comp declining. But at the same time, as I find my work getting increasingly intolerable, I am increasingly emotionally and financially ready to say that if I can’t do my work the way that I want to, then I’ll just retire. I’m not sure if my company’s managerial class even realizes that they need me much more than I need them at this point, or they are just hoping that I don’t realize it myself.
I’ve seen many family members die in their 60s and 70s, and see people who die soon after they retire. Beyond a certain level of assets and income, I’m trading my time for stuff like a bigger inheritance for my daughter. If I enjoyed my work like I did 10 or 15 years ago, I wouldn’t think about it as much. But the bloat of mid-level managers has made everything worse about work.
The only thing good to come outta Bayville was my first college sweatheart and Al Leiter. Not sure which of the two played a more prominent role in my life.
Holy crap does that last paragraph ring true.
My group of poker friends from college used to number around fifteen. We are all early to mid fifties. On guy died of a surprise aneurysm. A second guy croaked from Covid, he had treatable cancer, but the Covid got him when his counts were down. A third, the healthiest guy you would ever meet can’t walk without a cane. So that’s one in five. All of them were healthy as oxes, all played adult sports into their forties like me. Que sera sera baby. So I too, don’t want to die after a life of living cheaply. But at least I got the D to make sure he’s taken care of. If I heard Gator Jr. squandered my hard earned wealth, I’d haunt his ass from the grave. Luckily, he’s somehow cheaper than me. Fucker get’s the kid’s meal at Chipotle and saves $10 while his friends grossly overeat and overpay.
Book a few trips. I’m going on a cruise with Gator Jr. next week for his Spring break. He earned it. Still high honors headed into his likely Senior year. Depends on if he can get the necessary classes or not.
You’ll figure it all out.
In other news, I’m glad my wine fridge is full.
Libturd,
From Nov 1968 it took the S&P500 until 1982 to hit bottom and until 1993 to get back above the previous high. From August 2000 it took until 2009 to hit bottom and a new high wasn’t set until 2015. I’m not even going to mention the 1929 dynamics, the last time a global trade war erupted.
Here’s a good log chart.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
Remember that 1982 through 2021 was a period of ever-trending downward interest rates that supported both the economy and stock valuations.
Lib re: ” I’m going on a cruise with Gator Jr. next week for his Spring break”
Spring Break with Parents…talk about Helicoptering!!!! I see a few family members doing the same with their kids. One relative took her daughter and boyfriend to Cancun. Her husband came along too. Post on FB says “Is it Senior Spring Break? Or Mom’s?”
??? When I was his age we packed up the car and drove to Ft Lauderdale…250,000 kids in Ft. Lauderdale and no parents for a 1000 miles.
Here is my highlight reel filmed in VHS.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8o4eqf
Lib, I know with D you’ve had to change some of your earlier plans and I respect you for that. And it made your thrift that much more prescient and helpful.
Spending my last many winters working from a town of wealthy retirees has given me some additional perspective about inevitabilities of health and lifespan, and enjoying it while you can. The happiest people I know are those who retired while they still have the health to travel the world, to play golf and tennis before they physically decline too far to do it well anymore. In the last few years I’ve suffered a few more injuries, likely because I’m sitting in front of a monitor 40+hrs/week. After 50, I can feel the aging kick in faster.
There are no escalators to the top of Japanese shrines or European castles, or the Grand Canyon. If you can’t walk, and climb a cobblestone path, you’re SOL, regardless of how much money you’ve saved. And if you’re dead, nothing.
New handle day…..LAX becomes…,NorCal….
re: “If you can’t walk, and climb a cobblestone path”
My good friend’s elderly mom is now cruising the world doing just that, pretty much most of the year. She started cruising when she hit 80 years old. This was after getting the titanium hips and knees etc paid for by Medicaid.
Better get it done now before DOGE starts messing around with the benefits.
I am not kidding…800,000 knee replacements are performed in the United States each year, and a significant portion of these patients are covered by Medicare and another 450,000 hip replacements…
I’d like to say to each his own.
I know a couple in the 90s. The guy is in hospice… The woman is in her 90s as well. But she tries to show up for community events and contributes as much effort as she can for service.
They don’t need to do jack… but they still do and want to leave little legacies here and there. I heard their relationships with their kids who are my age is so-so. Mostly in my opinion, the kids’ faults.
To some people Life is not just about just their own lives, it is past their death. There is a satisfaction in giving and having a full life.
congrats and good luck NorCal, I prefer colder better myself
Wow… pardons for sale?
Changpeng Zhao might sell a stake in Binance to the “Trump Family”.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-family-has-held-deal-talks-with-binance-following-crypto-exchanges-guilty-plea-05b029fa
10:45
>> Nonetheless, ignore the noise.
Look at S&P – dropping like a rock, with no end in sight.
Watching this train wreck is so painful.
I just realized I will be in Tampa for my Spring Break at the end of the month arrive on the 31stt. Attending a work event. Not sure if there will be keg stands and wet t-shirt contests…I will have to take a look around.
https://www.tampabay.com/life-culture/entertainment/2024/03/04/spring-break-tampa-bay-theme-park-kids/
NorCal,
What part of NorCal you moving to?
No One,
I got an email yesterday from the wife of a good friend of mine. They moved to Spokane from Philly a few years ago. He retired in December and his wife told me he has very aggressive lung cancer that has spread throughout his body. She is looking at hospice care now to help take care of him. You just never know how quickly things can change.
UPDATED!
THU, MAR 13 2025
12:37 PM EDT
Dow drops 400 points, S&P 500 nears correction territory as Trump threatens more tariffs:
Live updates
Lisa Kailai Han
Pia Singh
NoOne,
Some free data on dividend stocks They never badger you with emails after you download Naturally they would like to sell you one of their services but don’t spam you
When equities tank, and they will, it could be a decade plus of them trading sideways so depending on your planned cash needs and the inevitable surprises…
https://www.suredividend.com/members-excel-sheet-downloads/
UPDATED
THU, MAR 13 2025
12:53 PM EDT
Stocks tumble on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 into a 10% correction:
Live updates
Lisa Kailai Han
Pia Singh
Juice,
I am far from helicoptering. Got the cruise for free (from Resorts World Catskills). Lost a total of $500 over two trips. Perks I have taken advantage of since then have included three free rooms, two bottles of Rum, $200 in free play, $300 in resort credit (meals), a $100 gift card, a round of golf on their Monster course for Gator Jr. and me, but was for up to four golfers, everything included except tips. Oh, and this Virgin Voyages cruise, verandah room with a hammock on the balcony. Free drinks in the casino too. By far, the best $500 I ever lost. I look forward to more free golfing in the Spring too. It’s really an amazing course.
Well Gator couldn’t go due to a work thing, so I invited the son in her place. Since then, there are no work things since she was riffed so she could have gone, but too late.
My son is Captain Cheapo Jr. He would have worked the break if I didn’t drag him along. I went five years of college without doing the Spring Break thing. I worked, since I had to pay for my own college (room and board too). Was always quite jealous of everyone else doing the oil wrestling, wet t-shirt tour. Now, they are all jealous of me. Work ethic is a good thing. Helicoptering my ass juice. I am the anti-helicopter. Just partying with the kid for a change, who is mature beyond his years and well deserving.
Need a comma between ass and juice. Ha!
Wow. Didn’t think the Nasdaq would get this low, this quick.
NoOne, don’t count out the FED lowering interest rates again.
Only down 600 today?
Tangles take on the CR resolution is a great read. It’s free, so I am copying it here.
At first blush, this CR seems like yet another spending punt from Republicans.
The bill is actually much worse, ceding the power of the purse to the executive branch.
I don’t think Senate Democrats should vote to pass it, but I think they’ll be too worried about shutting down the government to stop it.
When I first saw the news that Republicans were going to push through a CR, my immediate instinct was why wouldn’t Democrats vote for this?
After all, a continuing resolution — almost by definition — mostly continues the spending from a previous appropriations bill. That means Democrats would ensure the Trump administration starts by largely extending Biden’s budget, and doing so with help from Republicans.
That’s one legitimate lens through which to look at the House’s spending bill. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), the lone Republican to break ranks in the House and one of the few truly principled spending hawks left in the chamber, has been hammering this exact point.
Massie’s viewpoint has been historically correct. Trump and the GOP are claiming they want to balance the budget, yet they are doing the same thing Republicans have been doing for years now: passing short-term spending deals because they can’t agree as a caucus on the path forward to balancing the budget. It’s a cop out, one they have repeatedly promised not to take — and a promise they’ve repeatedly broken.
And, with this CR, they’re breaking it again. The House’s stopgap bill actually increases spending by $10 billion from 2024, and is projected to reduce the deficit by just $8 billion (or, 0.02% of the current national debt) over the course of the next 10 years. The larger spending bill House Republicans tried to push a few weeks ago would increase the debt and deficit by trillions of dollars. The latest effort from congressional Republicans appears to be an attempt to offload their fiscal responsibility to DOGE, which simply does not have the constitutional power to fix our spending problems.
That’s not a tinfoil hat theory, either; Republicans said it themselves. “I think for a lot of people back home, they’re wondering, why isn’t this just the same thing that Congress always does?” Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) told The New York Times. “This is how the president has asked us to fight now, so that they can do what they’re doing with DOGE.”
It is still mindboggling to me that this is how the administration is planning to usher in an era of responsible government spending. Consider these numbers from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which show exactly where each $100 you pay in federal taxes actually goes:
$24 to health insurance programs
$21 to Social Security
$13 to defense
$13 to servicing our debt
$8 to benefits for veterans and federal retirees
$7 to economic security programs
$5 to education
$2 to transportation
$1 to natural resources and agriculture
$1 to science and medical research
$1 to law enforcement
$1 to international programs
Since the beginning of the Trump administration, DOGE’s efforts have focused almost exclusively on areas that add up to roughly two dollars and change — and, in many cases, they haven’t actually addressed perpetual spending but simply laid off workers. As we’ve said over and over and over, the only way to actually address our spiraling debt problem is to reform Social Security, Medicare, and defense spending in a lasting way. Republicans say they want to do that but can never agree on a plan, while Democrats mostly propose modest reforms.
So, should Democrats just vote for this bill to lock in the bulk of their spending priorities and highlight how little Republicans are actually doing to find a long-term solution? Actually, I’m not so sure.
David Dayen (under “What the left is saying”) makes the case better than I could, and his argument rests on two pillars: 1) This bill cuts funding that most Democrats and progressives support. 2) This bill effectively hands the power of the purse over from Congress to the president, and it will further erode the balance of power between the different branches of government.
The second argument is much more salient to me. Trump wants to allow Congress to appropriate funding he never intends to spend, then use that money as a slush fund for whatever he wants, all while allowing the unelected, anonymous, and dishonest bureaucracy that is DOGE to run roughshod through the federal government — cutting all manner of important, bipartisan, and valuable programs without offering any sensible explanations for their decisions (or their mistakes). And, again, he’s doing all that while not actually balancing the budget, the North Star that is supposedly guiding all these decisions.
To put it differently: I don’t just think Trump’s plan is bad in the immediate term, I think it will do lasting damage to our government by becoming a blueprint for how a president can wrest control of spending from the legislative branch. Ed Kilgore rightly described this as “institutional suicide” by the party controlling the legislative branch. Along the way, the president wants to add billions in spending to the bloated and wasteful military, undo funding for tax enforcement, and cut a $23 billion appropriation to a fund that includes care for veterans exposed to burn pits and other carcinogenic chemicals. Trump promised a balanced budget and a booming economy, and so far I can’t see the path to either based on his actual actions.
Once again, I’m left looking at two parties and wondering what the heck has gone wrong. On one side, Republicans (despite what they’re saying) are now backing another CR that would raise the debt and deficit, but this time they’re also endorsing a reduction of their own spending power. Remember, only a year ago these same Republicans ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) for pushing through a CR, and that was when they didn’t even control the Senate or White House.
On the other side, we have the feckless Democrats, who I believe will roll over and fold for fear of facing a government shutdown. Insider reporting indicates Senate Dems are scared of what Trump and Musk will do during a shutdown (i.e. which programs they’ll target for furloughs), but if they balk at a shutdown, they’ll be ceding that kind of power to Republicans for at least the next two years — DOGE will get free reign, and Republicans can pass an omnibus bill without any Democratic support. Then, the courts will be the only place where Democrats have much of a chance of slowing this administration down until 2026. So, yes, I think Democrats should stand up and save Republicans from signing away their own power — but I sincerely doubt they will.
Now every Republican in the House (except one principled Kentuckian) is ceding their stated values out of fealty to Trump, every Republican in the Senate (except one principled Kentuckian) is set to do the same, and Senate Democrats appear ready to toss aside their only bit of power and fade to obscurity because they’re afraid of losing a messaging war over a government shutdown. The result, for the rest of us, is that we’re left hoping DOGE — which can’t even accurately itemize its purported savings — will somehow keep the government functioning while also finding trillions of dollars of savings.
I gotta say, I’m not feeling hopeful about that.
Juice Box says:
March 13, 2025 at 11:09 am
“Spring Break with Parents…talk about Helicoptering!!!!”
I wouldn’t helicopter a son, but seeing the UPitt girl disappear in the DR last week (after her ‘friends’ lost track of her) reminded me that if I had a daughter there’s no chance that I’d let her spring break outside the US without me — even if I had to glue on a mustache and hide behind bushes to keep track of things. Can’t imagine the thought of a drunk daughter on a beach in the DR, alone with some local guy at 4:00am.
Jews for Hamas took over Trump tower.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/protesters-take-trump-tower-nyc-demand-release-mahmoud-khalil-rcna196265
In other news, a judge ordered the White House to ‘immediately’ offer fired federal workers their jobs back.
THIS is MAGA.
“Jews for Hamas took over Trump tower.”
I’m not sure who I like less. Jews for Hamas or Jews for Jesus?
12:18 TBD my friend. Looking at lots of very expensive little houses …. hahahha
11:56 Thanks! I am looking forward to the experience. We’ll also be in my daughter’s backyard and see her more often. * years here and I feel like we’ve seen about everything we need to and this last round of fires really made me wonder about the viability of life here. I like SF and think the new mayor will clean the place up. Cautiously optimistic!
1:59 good lord….ooops must start using the new handle now…..derrrrr
Bottom line, where we are now is stagnating quickly. Lot’s of retirees and limited opportunities for my spouse. This move will put us in the middle of BioTech. She’s very excited! I’m happy she’s happy. On to the next adventure. There’s no one I’d rather travel with than her…
U.S. District Judge William Alsup sasaid the administration attempted to circumvent federal laws on reducing the workforce by attributing the firings to “performance” when that was not in fact the case. The judge called the move “a gimmick.”
Government workers and performance, efficiency, leadership all oxymorons in the Government world.
“…Government workers and performance, efficiency, leadership all oxymorons in the Government world…” That statement isn’t accurate. It just paints a huge workforce with a very broad brush.
Give me just one example of Federal Government efficiency.
Putin statements coming out now. He is in “favor” of some kind of “ceased hostilities” with various conditions, did not call it a cease fire. Media has positive and negative reporting on that.
US Envoy Steve Witkoff is meeting with Putin (or a body double) tonight in Moscow. Hopefully no Polonium Tea will be served.
Juice,
I’ll give you four examples of achievement vs problem that needed solutions that to achieve it efficiency required were unknown.
1-Operation Warp Speed.
2-Manhattan Project
3-Apollo XI
4-Destruction of USA by Manchurian POTUS aka King Krasnodar the OrangeTurd.
NorCal,
Happy wife, happy life. Hope she finds good opportunities, hope you find a place you enjoy. Don’t let the NorCal locals expand your drug consumption horizons too far or start luring you into polygamy, as I hear is their tendency. Boy Girl Girl at most, steer clear of BBG.
Too bad Senator Fetterman does not represent us here in NJ..Our Senator Booker is now standing behind Schumer on the Podium while he spreads fear for really no reason.
Fetterman today..
“Shut the government down, plunge the country into chaos, risk a recession or Exchange cloture for a 30 day CR that 100% fails,” Fetterman wrote. “The House GOP CR will then pass the Senate because it only needs 51 votes. Total theater is neither honest with constituents nor a winning argument.”
3:09 Sound advice!
It is certainly partially true. Which is why indiscriminate firings is a stupid strategy to create efficiency and savings.
indiscriminate firings?
So government workers aren’t “at will” like the rest of us? More of a reason to tear it all down. Unless they were fired for discrimination or retaliation there should be no additional job protections that the rest of us don’t enjoy. I am not talking about the Union workers either they have contracts. The rest don’t.
So lemme get this straight. Huge companies, in this case Tesla, are getting huge government subsidies, making massive profits, and paying zero taxes. These are the real parasites….
Elon Musk’s company avoided almost all federal income tax on nearly $11 billion of U.S. income over three years
Tesla, the most valuable automaker in the world valued at over $1 trillion, did not pay any federal income tax last year.
Tesla’s annual financial report, released this morning, shows the company enjoyed $2.3 billion of U.S. income in 2024 on which it reports precisely zero current federal income tax. Over the past three years, the Elon Musk-led company reports $10.8 billion of U.S. income on which its current federal tax was just $48 million. That comes to a three-year federal tax rate of just 0.4 percent – more than 50 times less than the statutory corporate tax rate of 21 percent.
NorCal – If you don’t like the tax laws write your Congress Critter, chances are they voted for them. And Please stop with the talking points coming out of 430 South Capitol Street in Washington and use your brain.
Loss carry-forwards…….Tesla was unprofitable for the majority of its 20 year history.
You as an individual tax payer get them too however it’s capped at $3,000.
Lib, one could say, you just went through 4 continuous decades of indiscriminate hiring & expansion. That wasn’t a good strategy either.