From Calculated Risk:
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak
It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!
In the May Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10.5% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.9% above the bubble peak.
People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $442,000 today adjusted for inflation (47% increase). That is why the second graph below is important – this shows “real” prices.
Release the Epstein files
What’s the 10y go to if Trump appoints a new Fed chair?
Whoever Trump picks to replace Powell will be loyal and do Trump’s bidding. There won’t be much confidence in the independence of the Fed and could affect stability of the markets. We are entering uncharted territory.
Low confidence in the Fed and high inflation potential increases the long end of the curve significantly, and mortgage rates go up, not down. Lots of head scratching as talking heads say that the curve should be inverted, signaling recession, and the long end should be lower (along with mortgage rates).
Either way, dollar continues to tank.
Fed pays too much attention to current data announcements and neglects long-term consequences. Best example is the latest BLS monthly reports on jobs.
Juice Box,
There could be personality issues involved as well. I mean if Trump was pushing me that hard maybe I’d dig in my heels as well. Rate cuts last September were a bit too close to the election I think and was larger than necessary in any case. Looked very political.
Gas prices about 10c higher than last week.
Trump may get his rate cut in September.
3b,
Yes, September is looking more likely all the time.
Nice and civil today. Rentlord must be sleeping in.
Just like Bernake you mean? Seven years of ZIRP?
Fed is supposed to prevent inflation. Massive money printing to paper over their mistakes only creates inflation.
As I have been saying, what is a few trillion between friends? We will all be dead and buried before there is a balance sheet unwind. There is no longer any talk about it anymore.
Ten 420
Questions to ask are:
-Who is going to be the first USD Trillionaire?
-How soon after is the first USD Quadrillionaire?
Obviously not based on growth but in King Bankruptcypolluza mathematics. From one of the guest in Bloomberg this morning, her thought was the money is not in the underlying asset but in the currency trade based on massive USD devaluation.
BNDX + VXUS should help. Plus being nimble, having a “last plane out” financial structure and if lucky a passport of decent country should help. Because Americans seeking refuge or even a vacation extended or not in another country should not look for compassion after King MAGATurd’s sadistic behavior.
WSJ article says demand for restaurant space is “ sizzling “ in Manhattan. Young people spending all sorts of money on cocktails and dining experiences, including as much as $30.00 for signature drink cocktails. According to one person interviewed, if you can vent it you can rent it, this in reference to non restaurant space being converted to restaurants. In the same WSJ a few weeks ago, it was said, young people have no money, thru stay in their apartments or get together with friends in their apartments, drinking has declined among young people, and they are into crafts etc
Chad: Yes, certainly looks that way with the rate cut. Trump gets his cut, Powell has the cover to give it to him. I believe it’s a mistake.
It’s nice it’s civil. It’s like the “teacher” is out sick today, and we get a break. It’s his blog now.
PS. Keep an eye on Texas’s GOP mid decade gerrymandering move to kneecap any Dems wins in the House. California is threatening to do same with Democrats to cancel out effect in House.
King Bankruptcypolluza thinks he’s smarter than economist and money managers, that is why he’s 6x King of Bankruptcies. As reality occurs, he’s going to get desperate. A hint of that was last Friday’s firing. His ideological mentors like Putin and Orban had time to slowly raise the temperature in the pot so the liberty loving frogs would not notice. He does not have time like them and will make very aggressive and impulsive move to assert power. Stat planning your commute around the tanks/secret police check points.
Weather was perfect. Boomer decides to take his plane out for a spin. How much did this cost taxpayers?
Fighter jets were scrambled to President Donald Trump’s New Jersey golf course on Sunday when a rogue aircraft breached the temporary flight restriction zone.
The unidentified pilot flew into the airspace above the Trump National Golf Club Bedminster at around 2.50pm and was quickly escorted out of the area by North American Aerospace Defense Command jets, the agency announced.
It had to use flares to draw the pilot’s attention, but NORAD assured the public the flares ‘are employed with the highest regard for the safety of the intercepted aircraft and people on the ground.’
Perhaps as a sign of the feds independence, we should hire Jerome Powell as treasury secretary
About half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a “major” source of stress in their life right now, while 33% say it’s a “minor” source of stress, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
https://apnews.com/article/poll-cost-living-groceries-expense-stress-worry-cd183c59f034f6e87525675f3ca04864
The old bubbles may break, but fear not we are creating new buubles inside the old ones – so when the outer bubble bursts, the inner bubbles are still intact and growing (until it’s their time).
Buy now, pay later,
Infusing meme stock into real currency, etc
So, maybe the crash and burn we expect soon will be extended to a future potus.
Phoenix, I was driving down 206 4 or 5 years ago when that happened. I saw the fighter jet do a few barrel rolls and deploy the flares. It was awesome.
Don’t worry about them. They are not of the ” producer” class.
They need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps.
As long as you win, no one will care about the losers. The house goes into bankruptcy, the winner buys it at a good price, it’s recycled, resold, and life goes on.
It might make it into a history book, but if it only makes it into AI, history will be scrubbed forever.
About half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a “major” source of stress in their life right now,
We all like to be entertained.
Brt says:
August 4, 2025 at 9:28 am
Phoenix, I was driving down 206 4 or 5 years ago when that happened. I saw the fighter jet do a few barrel rolls and deploy the flares. It was awesome.
buubles – What happens to your s0cialist democrat dreams when reality shows up with a pin.
Nancy Mace running for Governor of SC.
Her campaign, she is going after Trannies.
what are there, like 3 trannies in the whole state?
What people focus on. Your house is on fire, your baby is in the bedroom, but hey, I left my Pepsi on the counter.
When a headline gets it right:
We Watched Kamala Harris On Colbert So You Don’t Have To. It Was A Trainwreck
I wasn’t watching that ever, but since she is a trainwreck, it sounds like a documentary.
Dark: Kamala Harris just wont go away. I think she still might have Presidential ambitions, you would think after the last election she would have done some self-reflection. Governor of California would have been a nice consolation price for her.
3b
She is arrogant and narcissistic.
Of course she isn’t going away. In her mind she is the Messiah.
No humility in that one.
You have to be delusional to fail upwards continually to the presidential nomination. My neighbor has done something similar. The guy is easily one of the dumbest people I know. He couldn’t figure out how to mow the lawn. Almost killed his wife having her clean the gutters. Burns pressure treated wood in his firepit on a daily basis. Has his kids roast smores over it. Was doing so every day during last year’s major drought when everyone was legally warned not to.
He was some high level J&J exec and now he’s a major executive for Wal-Mart.
3 of those 4 could be considered dumb, but one, depending on the situation, well, it depends.
10:22 – one of the biggest bubble right now – crypto, is a very MAGA fueled construct.
Clamp that anal hole and be ready.
Every good campaign has an enemy.
Recently, it seems success in politics is based on how good you are at manufacturing an enemy to declare war against.
Transvestites? If there are so few of them, that might actually be a great enemy, nobody to fight back.
Dark: Yep, she is arrogant and narcissistic, and an idiot. And there are people that say she would have absolutely made a great president. I have no problem with people hating Trump. There is so much to hate about him, but to say with a straight face that Kamala Harris would have made a great president boggles the mind.
3 days, 10 yards of wood chips, one wheel barrel at a time.
It’s the work ethic, something tragically missing by the entitlement muppets. If you want to build the world a home, you’re gonna need to get your hands dirty.
10 yards is brutal, that’s an enormous pile – pretty much the size of a midsize SUV, not the trunk, the whole thing. Guessing something like 125-150 wheelbarrow fills.
King Bankruptcypolluza thinks he’s smarter than economist and money managers, that is why he’s 6x King of Bankruptcies.
Now list all the hotels, resorts, media’, golf courses, restaurants, aviation and estates he owns.
Six bankruptcies vs. more than five hundred businesses. Those six bankruptcies (probably more) are part of the learning process. Fall, get it up, over and over. I don’t expect anyone who never had a business to understand. The thought process of the left never fails to rear it’s ugly head. Time again, democrats prove they have as much depth as a paper cut. Their motto is, “Give me what you got, I’m too lazy to try.”
10 yards is brutal, that’s an enormous pile…
It never ended… I thought it would never end. The pile looked the same, every trip. I felt like I was using a teaspoon to move the stuff. When the guy dumped the load, it just kept coming. I wanted wood chips but not the whole town. Nevertheless, it’s finally done.
Fast: That sounds like some toxic masculinity on your part.
Wood chips or mulch should be a yard an hour. Four wheel barrows to a yard, maybe its six.
I get five yards delivered every spring, done before lunch if I edge the day before.
I prefer bags of mulch… easier to hump around than filling and emptying wheelbarrows. Had Lowe’s deliver 2 pallets and humped the bags around..
I prefer a bag of mulch to our current POTUS
You idiots are shockingly stupid. Brain dead cunts
of the Highest Order. Shitbags even.
The peace was nice while it lasted.
3b,
Yes, toxic masculinity. The left don’t do this stuff, they go from their studio apartments to an activist rally and back. That’s about it.
Wood chips or mulch should be a yard an hour.
I had to haul it around 2/3 of an acre and then spread it. The hour turned into two. I’m not as masculiny toxic as I was at 25 years old. :)
Fast: Just that whole vibe you gave off with 3 days wheel barrows, and sweat, and lifting and all, just reeks of toxic masculinity and bravado, very threatening. Hopefully, after you were finished you went to your local Dunkin and got yourself a large Golden Hour Refresher.
asking for a friend
pros/cons for mulch or woodchips? perhaps a bit of chex/mix
Dedicated to Phx:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DMy5ZHgIhSG/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=embed_video_watch_again
Bad cop no donut:
https://www.nydailynews.com/2025/08/04/new-jersey-state-trooper-kills-ex-girlfriend-boyfriend-dead-suicide/
Ed: I think your commentary is a whitewashing of history. More accurately stated is that Trump is a bad administrator and operator of businesses. He is fiscally irresponsible, emotional, impulsive, has garish taste, and has no pragmatic sense.
His bankruptcies are acts of pure cynicism and loose business ethics. He learned graft from his father and was bankrolled from a young age. He intentionally walled off business liability, and took unneeded and foolhardy risks. Only the stupid lined up to offer this guy money, trying to trade off his name.
What he does have is longetivity, shamelessness, and a unique unflappable spirit. In a world where “attention” is a commodity to be traded, he has the ability to culivate it, use it, and profit from it.
The fact that he is his own brand, and cannot share with the rest of the Republican party, or frankly any party at all, is evidence of the idiosyncratic nature of his talent. The talent is real and built for this age. He could not survive in any other.
Appreciate it now, but he is going to be dead or severely diminished in very short order. Whatever happens to his health, it is going to be quick and dramatic.
Fast Eddie says:
August 4, 2025 at 1:30 pm
King Bankruptcypolluza thinks he’s smarter than economist and money managers, that is why he’s 6x King of Bankruptcies.
Now list all the hotels, resorts, media’, golf courses, restaurants, aviation and estates he owns.
Six bankruptcies vs. more than five hundred businesses. Those six bankruptcies (probably more) are part of the learning process. Fall, get it up, over and over. I don’t expect anyone who never had a business to understand. The thought process of the left never fails to rear it’s ugly head. Time again, democrats prove they have as much depth as a paper cut. Their motto is, “Give me what you got, I’m too lazy to try.”
ChiFi,
Thoughtful analysis. It’s a pleasure to read an independent and objective view. I appreciate it.
Chgo: Insightful and thoughtful analysis on Trump, and pretty much spot on. As you note he was made for this time. The qyuestion is what is it about this time that enabled Trump to become President not only once, but twice. After the chaos of his first administration he should not have been elected a second time, and yet he was.
What makes you say he is going to be dead or diminished in very short order.
FastL Chicago criticized Trump, shouldn’t you be screaming and calling him names? Never mind I forgot, that is the other side that does that if you criticize one of theirs.
Hitler had his own brand.
So did Stalin. Mussolini, Mao, Saddam Hussein, Idi Amin.
Nothing new.
Ceasar did too.
It’s almost like someone could write a cookbook on dictators.. and give it to someone to follow…hmm.. wait..
sweat, and lifting and all, just reeks of toxic masculinity and bravado, very…
Fast and 3b need to get a room.. or visit brokeback mountain.
Rent: Be quiet you old goat. I thought we were free of you today. There you go with the anti Gay jokes again. You should get some counseling to deal with all that anger. Even people your age can come out.
Chinese buyers, flush with cash, are swooping in on California homes
Data suggests that these homes are mostly viewed as investment opportunities
I love it when ChiFi puts that big brain of his to work here.
6:24 can attest to that one here in Burlingame.
Chinese money flows here and properties go at a huge
premium. All of the kids who are good at math live up here.
What could go wrong??
3b I see you’ve completed your subtle transformation to degenerate douchebag.
Congrats!
Chi
funny. hope she gets cracked tonight I don’t want a ticket
You sent the jobs to China, they saved their money, now they buy your land. When you bring the jobs back to America, you can work for the Chinese.
Now, according to new data, international buyers — many of whom don’t reside in the U.S. at all — are setting their sights on California’s already-limited housing stock and paying for it in cash.
Fifty-seven percent of buyers who purchased property in California were from Asia/Oceania, followed by Latin America at 18%, the report said.
“It was the top destination among Chinese buyers and the second top destination among Mexican, Indian, and U.K. buyers,”
Ex Lax: You are just the angry old goat from the other coast. Your angry nasty name calling and dick pictures are getting real old. Go make yourself useful and do something. You might want to consider therapy , new pot, whatever, but you and your schtick are just old and tiring.
Fifty-seven percent of buyers who purchased property in California were from Asia/Oceania,
Is that 57% of all buyers, or just foreign buyers???
100% of the people who bought on my block recently are from China, 4 straight homes…950k