Home ownership hits new lows

Posted on August 1, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

Homeownership drops to 1998 level

The U.S. homeownership rate in the second quarter dropped to its lowest level in 13 years, according to the Census Bureau, with analysts expecting even more drops ahead.

The homeownership rate fell to 65.9%, down one percentage point from a year ago. It’s the lowest level measured since the first quarter of 1998. Analysts at Capital Economics said this means the homeownership rate built during the housing boom has been “completely wiped out” by its bust.

“The poor economic climate, the double dip in house prices, the high number of foreclosures and tight credit conditions are all reasons why the homeownership rate will continue to fall,” analysts said.

The rate remained highest in the Midwest at 70%, followed by 68.2% in the South, 63% in the Northeast and 60.3% in the West. Since the second quarter of 2007, the homeownership rate in the West has dropped more than four full percentage points.

Homeownership for younger consumers has become even more sparse. According to the Census Bureau, the rate among Americans younger than 35 years old dropped to 37.5% from 39% one year ago. This, analysts said, is a sign credit has tightened for younger consumers. With unemployment elevated for this cohort, as well, the rate could continue to fall in coming quarters.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 163 Comments

Otteau: NJ June contracts show improvement

Posted on July 31, 2011 by grim

From the Otteau Group:

MarketNews – July 2011 Edition

Further evidence of stabilization in the housing market occurred in June as combined purchase contracts for resales and new construction increased by 12% from one year ago. This follows a 13% increase in May, reversing a trend of declining purchase activity over the preceding year. The market’s June performance essentially matched 2008 when the recession was still in its early stages. These recent improvements in the face of weak employment growth, high unemployment and restricted access to credit suggest that housing demand is stabilizing.

Posted in Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 98 Comments

Pending home sales rebound

Posted on July 29, 2011 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Pending Sales of Previously Owned Homes in the U.S. Increased 2.4% in June

The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in June as buyers tried to take advantage of lower prices and borrowing costs.

The 2.4 percent rise in the index of pending home resales followed an 8.2 percent May gain, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Economists forecast a 2 percent drop, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
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Estimates for pending home sales ranged from a drop of 5 percent to an increase of 8 percent, according to 39 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. Pending sales rose 17 percent from June 2010.

From the WSJ:

Behind the Numbers: Pending Home Sales Rise

This week’s reports on the housing market have been decidedly mixed.

On Tuesday, the government said new home sales were down 1% on a monthly basis in June. Also that day, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. cities was down 4.5% in May from a year earlier.

But today’s news was positive and unexpected: The National Association of Realtors’ seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes rose 2.4% on a monthly basis to a reading of 90.9 in June. Economists had forecast a 2% drop.
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Peter Newland, economist, Barclays Capital: “The gains in May and June largely offset the sharp 11.2% decline in April, which likely owed in part to adverse weather conditions in much of the country. Indeed, the level of the index, at 90.9 in June, is back broadly in line with the (first-quarter) average….This is an encouraging report with regard to the outlook for existing home sales, which tend to lag pending sales by a month or two.”
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Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist, High Frequency Economics: “The underlying trend in existing home sales is more or less flat, and it is hard to imagine any near-term change as long as applications for mortgages to finance house purchase(s) are flat, too. In this context, the gains in pending home sales in May and June are probably best considered as nothing more than a rebound after the very late Easter and severe weather depressed the index in April.”

From the NAR:

Pending Home Sales Rise in June

Pending home sales increased in June following a wide swing down in April and then up in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Activity increased in the West and South but declined in the Midwest and Northeast; all regions show strong double-digit gains from a year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 90.9 in June from 88.8 in May and is 19.8 percent above the 75.9 reading in June 2010, which was the low point immediately following expiration of the home buyer tax credit. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
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The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.4 percent to 68.9 in June but is 19.4 percent higher than June 2010. In the Midwest the index fell 3.7 percent to 79.7 in June but is 26.4 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 4.4 percent to an index of 99.2 and are 19.1 percent higher than June 2010. In the West the index rose 6.4 percent to 107.0 in June and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 237 Comments

July Beige Book

Posted on July 28, 2011 by grim

From the Fed:

July Beige Book – Second District–New York

Construction and Real Estate

Residential construction has remained depressed and housing markets across the District have remained sluggish since the last report, although there has been further improvement in the rental market. An authority on New Jersey’s housing industry reports that the resale market has remained weak, and that the level of optimism appears to have waned. Prices of existing homes have continued to drift down, largely reflecting a preponderance of “distressed” sales; otherwise, prices across northern New Jersey are generally flat. While the inventory of unsold new homes is fairly lean now, the inventory of available existing homes remains elevated–as high as 16 months of sales if units in foreclosure and other distressed properties are included. Buffalo-area Realtors also report some weakening in market conditions in May and June; while foot traffic has been fairly brisk, few people have made offers. More generally, sales activity across New York State has been steady to weaker. A major New York City appraisal firm reports that both sales and prices of co-ops, condos, and single-family homes remain flat overall–both in Manhattan and in the outer boroughs–with the high end of the market accounting for a larger share of sales than last year.

In contrast with the weakness in home purchase markets, rental markets have shown increasing strength. Manhattan’s apartment rental market has strengthened since the last report. Rents on new leases were reported to be up 6 percent in June from a year earlier in June. In addition, one contact notes that landlords have pulled back on concessions, which are now reportedly being offered on fewer than 5 percent of new leases, down from 60 percent in mid-2010. Separately, the Jersey shore summer rental market is reported to be fairly strong this year, though the sales market for rental units remains sluggish. More broadly, many New Jersey landlords are reported to be pushing through rent increases for the first time since the recession.

Commercial real estate markets have been steady to somewhat weaker since the last report. Office vacancy rates and rents were generally stable across the District during the second quarter: market conditions improved slightly in the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas and in Manhattan, but they weakened moderately in northern New Jersey and metropolitan Albany. However, industrial real estate markets weakened modestly across most of the District, with vacancy rates edging up and rents drifting down.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 181 Comments

Why didn’t the price of that great house fall?

Posted on July 27, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

CoreLogic: Nondistressed home prices stabilizing

Stabilizing nondistressed home prices, a declining shadow inventory and stronger foreclosure auctions should lead to lower distressed sales and less downward pressure on prices, according to CoreLogic.

The report notes that while mortgage performance is improving, it is not improving nearly as much as other consumer debt performance.

Despite, a bit of positive news in the report, CoreLogic notes that negative equity will remain a strong influence on the market for an extended period of time.

In May 2011, the “excluding distressed sales” home price index only dropped 0.4% from a year ago, compared to a decline of 7.4% for the all transactions HPI.

“Another very positive sign is that even while including distressed sales, the HPI increased between March and April — the first time in more than six months — and was up again between April and May. These increases represent the resumption of seasonality in home prices and are a positive sign for the market.”
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Price discounts on distressed sales remain high, however, a major impediment to price stabilization, but the good news is that new auction filings have been down significantly since October 2010.

Residential shadow inventory — the estimated number of pending supply of distressed properties — declined to 1.7 million units in April 2011, down from 1.9 million units a year ago and down nearly 20% from its peak.

“Given that the recent declines in auction filings and current shadow inventory levels are the drivers of future distressed sales, the level of distressed sales should, all things equal, begin to decline late in 2011 and into 2012,” the report said.
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“Going forward, negative equity will primarily decline by a combination of foreclosures, amortization and, to a lesser extent, price increases,” the report said. “While price declines have been a large driver of negative equity, price improvements will most likely not be the antidote anytime soon. …”While the worst is over, it means many of these borrowers will be upside down for an extended period of time, which will result in a long tail of mortgage distress.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 146 Comments

Case Shiller and New Home Sales

Posted on July 26, 2011 by grim

From Forbes:

Ahead of the Bell: New home sales

More people likely purchased new homes in June than the previous month, although sales are expected to remain below healthy levels.

Economists forecast that new-home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 323,000 in June, according to a survey by FactSet. The Commerce Department will release the report at 10 a.m. Tuesday.

In May, sales fell 2.1 percent to an annual rate of 319,000. That’s less than half the 700,000 homes per year that economists say is typical in healthy markets.

In a separate report Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller will release its home-price index for May. The index measures home prices in 20 of the largest U.S. metro areas. It sank in March to its lowest levels since 2002. It rebounded slightly in April because of a traditional influx of spring buying.

Housing remains the weakest part of the U.S. economy. Sales of new homes have fallen 18 percent in the two years since the recession ended. Last year was the worst for new-home sales on records dating back a half century.

High unemployment, larger down payment requirements and tougher lending standards are preventing many people from buying homes. And some potential buyers who can clear those hurdles are holding off, worried that home prices have yet to bottom out.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 221 Comments

Fannie Mae: Recovery begins in Q3

Posted on July 25, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

Fannie Mae sees light at the end of housing tunnel

Home sales in the second quarter of 2011 were bad, according to Fannie Mae. Home prices also remain volatile, moving with gains and losses, over the past two years.

However, according to a housing forecast report card released on Friday from the government-sponsored enterprise, 2012 is likely to be a different story.

Next year will likely see meaningful gains in both categories, especially in the multifamily space. Both home sales and house prices should begin to improve from the third quarter 2011, with faster growth in the final two quarters of 2012.
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“Clearly, the renewed slowdown in hiring underscores the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “The lack of sustained, robust job growth continues to push out into the future the time for the housing market to heal, which is crucial to a meaningful economic expansion.”

Fannie Mae also predicts mortgage rates on 30-year fixed to hit 5% in the second quarter of 2012 and keep rising from there. Liquidations, on the other hand will remain at low levels for the long term.

Demands for rentals should remain robust, according to Kim Betancourt, Fannie Mae director of multifamily economics and market research, in a separate research report.

“There is some concern that multifamily fundamentals may stagnate if job growth remains anemic, however, new rental supply will be limited, likely resulting in keeping current rent levels stable,” Betancourt wrote.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 145 Comments

Progress!

Posted on July 23, 2011 by grim

Some updates on my reno.

Foundation and drainage work is done, grading is complete. We no longer have any grass at all. Retaining walls are up and looking great.


Fancy blockwork steps


Wall out to the street (trees are now gone)


Other side of the driveway


Steve the tree guy from Montville taking care of the rest of the trees we weren’t brave enough to take down (26 or so in total at this point)


We have backyard now!


New windows (Full divided lights, sexy)


Modified window position and size in the kitchen to fit cabinetry and hood


Electrical work being done, we added 55 lighting fixtures


Main bath rough in electrical


Radiant heat in the main and master baths


Radiant heat in the kitchen


Sneak peak of the cabinetry waiting to be installed, silly amount of boxes, more than 45 feet of cabinetry, 12 foot island island


Sexy white inset cabinetry, exposed nickel hinges, seeded glass

Posted in Grim's House | 82 Comments

State unemployment ticks up in June, despite added jobs

Posted on July 22, 2011 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. unemployment rate grows in June

New Jersey added 1,700 jobs in June, but the unemployment rate inched up one-tenth to 9.5 percent as more people reported looking for work.

The Labor Department reports that the state added 6,400 private-sector jobs last month but public sector jobs declined by 4,700.

The state says leisure and hospitality industries added 5,200 jobs; education and health services added 1,800 jobs; and 1,000 construction jobs were added.

The manufacturing sector was hardest hit with a loss of 1,900 jobs; financial activities lost 900 jobs; and trade transportation and utilities lost 400 jobs.

From the APP:

NJ gained 1,700 jobs in June; unemployment climbs to 9.5%

New Jersey’s economy added 1,700 jobs in June, the state said Thursday in a report that shows the labor market recovering slowly but steadily from the devastating recession.

The job growth wasn’t strong enough to keep up with the number of residents looking for work; the state’s unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent from 9.4 percent in May.

“Right now, my daughter, son-in-law and grandson moved into my one-bedroom apartment,” said Veronica Gaddis, 50, of Lake Como, who herself has been out of work for two years. “I’m grateful for that because I know there are people who have nowhere to go. It’s a mess.”
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New Jersey is trying to dig itself out of the hole left by a recession that caused it to lose 265,000 jobs, or 6.5 percent of its employment. And without a strong manufacturing presence, it hasn’t taken been able to take advantage of a resurgence in the nation’s manufacturing sector.

The report in June, however, carried a hopeful sign. The state added 6,400 private-sector jobs last month. It added 28,100 private-sector jobs the first half of the year, preliminary estimates show. And that puts it on pace for its best performance since 2000, Rutgers economist James W. Hughes said.

“It’s destined to be the best job growth year in 11 years,” Hughes said.

Still, New Jersey at that pace wouldn’t recover its lost jobs until 2016. And there are obstacles to get there. For one, there remains a gap between the pre-recession skills that workers developed and the post-recession skills employers need, said Mark Vitner, an economist with Wells Fargo Securities.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 122 Comments

June Existing Home Sales Dissapoint

Posted on July 21, 2011 by grim

From the WSJ:

Home Resales Decline Again as Buyers Hesitate

Existing-home sales in June fell to a seven-month low, and the number of contract cancellations soared, signaling that buyers are rethinking home purchases amid national economic uncertainty.

Sales decreased 0.8% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. It was the third-straight monthly drop and puts this year’s pace behind last year’s 4.91 million homes sold, which had marked the weakest sales in 13 years.

The median sales price was $184,300, up 0.8% from $182,900 a year earlier.

“The housing market has been two steps forward, then two steps back,” said Chris Mayer, an economics professor at Columbia University. “This is a sign of the lack of progress in developing a mortgage market that can take us past the housing crisis.”

Sales were down 5.2% in the Northeast and 1.7% in the West, while other regions saw modest gains; sales were up 0.5% in the South and 1% in the Midwest. A separate report released Wednesday showed one bright spot for sales was Florida. Second-quarter home sales in Miami were up 13.5% from last year, and hit a five-year high, according to brokerage Douglas Elliman.

The overall decline in home sales “suggests that the recent deterioration in economic conditions has already hit the housing market,” according to Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at the Toronto-based Capital Economics.

From Bloomberg:

Existing-Home Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall 0.8% to a 4.77 Million Rate

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in June to a seven-month low as the industry struggled to overcome rising unemployment and foreclosures.

Purchases dropped 0.8 percent to a 4.77 million pace, data from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain to 4.9 million. Inventories increased, more contracts were canceled and 30 percent of transactions last month were of distressed dwellings, the figures showed.

Stricter lending rules, unemployment above 9 percent and delays in processing foreclosures mean it may take years to reduce the number of distressed properties on the market even as all-cash purchases have recently helped buoy demand. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the decline in confidence and lack of job growth that are impeding consumer spending are also keeping real estate “depressed.”

“The market continues bumping along the bottom, with every move ahead matched by a disappointing setback,” said Richard DeKaser, an economist at Parthenon Group in Boston. “As long as the risk of further price declines is appreciable, buyers and lenders alike are going to remain skittish. For there to be a meaningful rebound in sales, we’ll probably have to wait until 2012.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 194 Comments

Why does the American Dream need to include a deed?

Posted on July 20, 2011 by grim

From Pimco:

Are There Any Rungs Left on the Housing Ladder?

From HousingWire:

Homeownership no longer an aspirational goal: PIMCO

The idea of homeownership as an aspirational goal may no longer carry much weight as college graduates enter the work force saddled with high student loan debt and older Americans focus on retirement.

Rod Dubitsky, an analyst with PIMCO, said the overall question that looms large over the mortgage industry is: Who is going to buy housing in the next 10 years?

In a report titled, “Are There Any Rungs Left on the Housing Ladder?”, Dubitsky dives into demographic data, painting a bleak picture for home sellers who are largely dependent on two groups of buyers: veteran homeowners who now have less desire to buy homes as they focus on retirement, and young buyers who are getting paid less while carrying significant student debt.

In downturns, markets generally look to first-time homebuyers to pull the levers of demand, but Dubitsky says the housing economy should not be overconfident when focusing on this group.

Why the change? According to Dubitsky this demographic is struggling financially, pushing them on a lower rung of the housing ladder. While in the past, the young demographic functioned as the market’s first-time homebuyers, today they are more likely to be long-term renters based on their financial situations.
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Dubitsky said the ability of these borrowers to make their way into the housing market is contingent on whether they have the opportunity to save money. But the statistics on this point remain grim with the average student debt now equal to a 15% down payment on a median-priced home.

“We believe that some amount of the reduction in graduate earnings power and rise in debt is a longer-term phenomenon that could serve to limit college graduate home purchasing power for the foreseeable future,” the report concluded.

The younger demographic is not the only group falling down the ladder. While young buyers are now more likely to rent than own, older homeowners are less likely to upgrade into larger homes or invest in second properties. Many older workers are aware they have to contribute 10% more of their pay to their retirement savings, which means less disposable income.

“This could be manifested in permanently postponed home purchases, reduced tendencies to upsize, lower likelihood of buying a retirement home, more affordable post-retirement rental choices,” according to Dubitsky. “All of this suggests downsized housing choices — one home instead of two, rent rather than own, smaller place rather than large. These choices could serve to reduce the dollars committed to housing investment.”

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 145 Comments

And they’re off!

Posted on July 18, 2011 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Paramus bank the first to meet new court foreclosure filing standards

Hudson City Savings Bank is in compliance with the state court’s new mortgage foreclosure filing standards, according to a July 12 document that was made public yesterday.

The move means the bank is the first of more than two dozen of the country’s biggest mortgage lenders and servicers to satisfy the court’s exhaustive review of foreclosure processes, according to documents posted to the court’s website.

The decision comes nearly seven months after state Supreme Court Chief Justice Stuart Rabner issued a three-part initiative to investigate what he feared was rogue residential mortgage foreclosure filings, noting a staggering increase in caseloads and concerns the judges had inadvertently “rubber-stamped” files that had inadequate or inaccurate paperwork. Lenders and servicers were required to provide extensive documentation outlining how they handled foreclosure proceedings.

In his decision, retired Judge Walter Barisonek — serving as one of two special masters overseeing the cases — wrote that Hudson City Savings Bank has “sufficient policies and procedures in place to demonstrate affirmatively that there should not be irregularities in their handling of foreclosure proceedings in this state.”

The court’s actions have effectively halted foreclosure filings since December while lenders and servicers work with court-appointed special masters to review hundreds of pages of paperwork.

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 156 Comments

Wrist slapping delayed a few weeks

Posted on July 18, 2011 by grim

From the NY Post:

Mortgage megadeal is still weeks away

America’s biggest mortgage servicers are still weeks from reaching a potential multibillion-dollar deal with federal and state officials to settle the foreclosure fiasco, The Post has learned.

Key sticking points include the amount each bank will have shell out and whether the firms will be released from future lawsuits once a broad accord is struck, sources said. Banks could be hit with as much as $25 billion in fines.

Negotiators had hoped to reach an agreement in principle by last week or possibly this week.

But a source close to the talks between the five biggest US banks and 50 state attorneys general and federal regulators said discussions aren’t as far along as hoped and that an agreement might be reached in the next three to four weeks.

The settlement as it is now structured would form two types of funds — one national and funds for each of the states — that would settle most state and federal civil foreclosure claims against Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Ally Financial, formerly known as GMAC.

Last week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon voiced some frustration with the process and described the mortgage mess as an “unmitigated disaster” during a conference call with analysts to discuss second-quarter results. “We just really need to clean it up for the sake of everybody,” Dimon said. “And everybody is going to sue everybody else, and it’s going to go on for a long time.”

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Bubble | 126 Comments

Bubble sitters just as unrealistic

Posted on July 17, 2011 by grim

From MarketWatch:

Post-bubble buyers more likely to overprice home

People who bought their homes after the housing bubble burst are more likely to have an unrealistic view of their home’s worth than those who bought before the housing downturn, according to a report released by Zillow this week.

The analysis found that people currently selling their homes who bought in 2007 or later are overpricing them by 14%. In contrast, those who bought before 2002 are overpricing by 12% and those who bought between 2002 and 2006 are overpricing by 9%.

“Post-bubble buyers seem to believe they escaped the worst of the housing recession, as evidenced by how they price their homes today,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “But 2006 was just the beginning of the housing recession, and it is continuing in earnest to this day. That means that even people who bought after the bubble burst need to break out the pencil and paper and do serious research into what has happened in their market since they first bought their home, whether it was four years ago or six months ago.”

Of homeowners who said they intend to sell their home in the next four years, people who purchased their home after the bubble were also more likely than those who bought earlier to base their asking price on the price they originally paid for the home, according to Zillow.
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No one likes to admit their home has gone down in value — especially when it hasn’t been that long since you moved in. But if you need to sell that home after living in it for just a few years, take a deep breath and price it right, otherwise it could end up costing you even more.

“Overpricing homes causes them to stagnate on the market and keeps inventory from decreasing — not a desirable outcome for either the sellers or the market as a whole,” Humphries said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble | 104 Comments

“Homeowners need to price their homes right or they won’t sell”

Posted on July 15, 2011 by grim

From the Chicago Tribune:

Pricing a home to sell in today’s market

During the housing boom, many real estate agents found it extraordinarily tough, if not impossible, to come up with even ballpark asking prices for their listings.

“Values were increasing at a pace we had never seen in this area,” said John Duffy of Duffy Real Estate in the Philadelphia area.

For four-plus decades, real estate agents had been used to gradual price appreciation of 3 to 6 percent a year, “and then the boom came along, and we were seeing a much faster and higher appreciation, which made it very difficult to price properties,” Duffy said.

The results: Multiple bids, and prices exceeding what homeowners were asking.

Today’s market is very different. And, Realtors say, the way houses are priced has changed dramatically.

“Homeowners need to price their homes right or they won’t sell,” said Art Herling, Philadelphia-area vice president of Long & Foster real estate company. “Buyers are extremely savvy and cautious, and, as one builder said, ‘It’s hip to be conservative.'”

You must be able to “defend” the asking price, Duffy said. One way is to research similar homes that have sold in the past few months in a neighborhood or town. Also, compare the house with others on the market in the same area.

“It is important for the Realtor and homeowner to be totally honest with the comparison, and make sure you are comparing apples with apples,” Duffy said.

Active listings “will give the seller a bird’s-eye view of what the competition is doing, and what he or she is up against, as a comparative tool,” said John Badalamenti of Prudential Fox & Roach in Wayne, N.J.

Added Laurie R. Phillips of Prudential Fox & Roach in Philadelphia: “When a new buyer is out looking at homes, they will compare the prices of what they are seeing.”

Days on the market is another important factor to consider, Duffy said. If a similar property has been listed for a while, it’s a good indication the house is overpriced.
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Looking back at sales from a more robust market is irrelevant, said Joanne Davidow, vice president and office manager at Prudential Fox & Roach in Philadelphia.

“Sellers may be tempted to price a house with what they need, but it is important to price at a realistic range,” Davidow said.

Posted in Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 235 Comments