Fort Monmouth redevelopment

From Forbes:

NJ redevelopment plan to be shown

Sprawled across 1,100 acres, Fort Monmouth occupies a good chunk of New Jersey, but its high-tech mission constitutes an even larger contribution to the state’s economy.

But with the Army base scheduled to close in 2011, the focus is on civilian redevelopment of the base, which lies along one of the Jersey shore’s commercial corridors and also touches scenic waterways.

The preliminary redevelopment plan will be revealed in Eatontown Tuesday, ahead of a public meeting Wednesday at Monmouth Regional High School in Tinton Falls. The fort is part of those towns and Oceanport.

‘There is an emphasis on high-technology job retention through utilization of existing buildings that are wired for high-technology, but it will include elements for housing, retail, other commercial elements as well,’ said Jack Donnelly, a policy adviser for Gov. Jon S. Corzine who has been assisting the Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Planning Authority.

The preliminary plan was developed during dozens of public meetings the authority has held since being formed nearly two years ago.

The fort is important to the state, as its payroll for about 5,500 workers approaches $500 million and its overall economic impact is estimated at $2.5 billion annually by the state Commerce, Economic Growth & Tourism Commission. That includes money spent locally by workers and support jobs that involve about 22,000 people.

Nearly all the workers are civilians, and it is unclear how many will want to relocate to Maryland, where work has started on Fort Monmouth’s future home at the Aberdeen Proving Ground.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 1 Comment

Just how low will Benny go?

From Bloomberg:

Bernanke May Cut Benchmark Rate by Most Since Volcker

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be readying the deepest interest-rate cut in a generation as the central bank struggles to prevent a meltdown in financial markets and a recession.

Traders predict the Federal Open Market Committee, meeting today in Washington, will lower the overnight lending rate by a full percentage point or more, based on futures prices in Chicago. That would be the biggest reduction since 1984, when Paul Volcker led the central bank, and would bring the benchmark rate down to 2 percent.

The Fed took emergency steps over the weekend to stave off a financial panic, lowering its rate on direct loans to banks and becoming lender of last resort for Wall Street’s biggest dealers in government bonds.

“The Fed has moved very aggressively to deal with liquidity problems that are major,” said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now a senior adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington, who said today’s reduction may be as much as a full percentage point. “They need to be aggressive on the monetary policy side. This is the worst crisis we have faced in more than 50 years.”

The severity of the crisis was underscored by the Fed’s emergency action on the evening of March 16, the first weekend policy shift since 1979. A week ago, the debate among economists was whether the Fed would cut by 50 basis points or 75 basis points.

Now, a reduction of 1 percentage point is seen as a sure bet among futures traders and some anticipate a move of as much as 1.25 percentage points. Either would be the deepest since Volcker’s Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 10 percent from 11.75 percent in October 1984.

Recent economic data suggests the first recession since 2001 may have begun in December or January. Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the committee that officially declares when a recession has started, said last week that he believed a recession was under way and it could be the most severe since World War II.

“They are worried about the spillover effects of financial markets and what they can do to keep that from happening,” said Robert Eisenbeis, former research director at the Atlanta Fed who is now chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors Inc. in Vineland, New Jersey.

“Bernanke believes the economy is in a very serious situation right now,” said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. “The Fed is worried about a very severe credit contraction that can cause an even weaker economy.”

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 475 Comments

Otteau February Newsletter

From the Otteau Valuation Group:

WEAK SALES PACE CONTINUES IN FEBRUARY

February home sales turned in another weak performance erasing hopes of a housing market recovery any time soon. Following a disappointing January when contract-sales were off by 30%, February home sales were down by 21% compared to the same month last year. This leaves year-to-date contract-sales activity 25% below last year at this time, making it the worst start for home sales since the housing recession began in 2005.

Further evidence of market weakness can be found in Unsold Inventory levels which rose for the 2nd consecutive month to 65,000 standing homes on the market, excluding the pipeline of new construction homes not yet completed. All of this provides compelling evidence that falling home prices will continue for the time being. As a reference point there were fewer than 32,000 homes for sale back in 2005 when home prices were last appreciating, suggesting that unsold inventory will need to decline significantly before home prices start rising again. Our current projection is that home prices will not recover to 2005 peak levels until 2015 at the earliest.

Therefore, the advice to home sellers is to Right! Price before home prices decline further. This is because overpricing extends marketing time, leading to a lower selling price down the road.

Despite the ongoing market decline however, some brighter spots exist in the housing market. Housing demand continues to outperform the overall market in downtown redevelopment areas as well as in communities offering transit rail access. Look for this trend to intensify as transit rich communities offer tangible solutions to New Jersey’s housing affordability constraints, particularly as younger Generation-Y home buyers transition from renting to home ownership over the next 5 years.

Switching to the buyer’s perspective, the current housing market presents a unique opportunity by way of falling home prices AND low mortgage interest rates. Because the decline in home prices typically slows later in a correction cycle, the greater risk in timing the market is the potential for higher mortgage rates ahead. Thus 2008 will provide home buyers with the double bonus of lower mortgage rates and lower home prices. Also noteworthy are the increased Jumbo mortgage thresholds for loans in excess of $417,000, which are scheduled to expire at the end of this year. This, together with tax refunds later this year increase the likelihood of higher interest rates and borrowing costs in 2009. Therefore, we’re likely to look back 5 years from now and conclude that 2008 was the ‘sweet spot’ for home buying.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 62 Comments

“That’s got to tell you the economy is in a pretty precarious state.”

From the Wall Street Journal:

J.P. Morgan Buys Bear in Fire Sale, As Fed Widens Credit to Avert Crisis
Ailing Firm Sold For Just $2 a Share In U.S.-Backed Deal
By ROBIN SIDEL, DENNIS K. BERMAN, and KATE KELLY
March 17, 2008; Page A1

Pushed to the brink of collapse by the mortgage crisis, Bear Stearns Cos. agreed — after prodding by the federal government — to be sold to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. for the fire-sale price of $2 a share in stock, or about $236 million.

Bear Stearns had a stock-market value of about $3.5 billion as of Friday — and was worth $20 billion in January 2007. But the crisis of confidence that swept the firm and fueled a customer exodus in recent days left Bear Stearns with a horrible choice: sell the firm — at any price — to a big bank willing to assume its trading obligations or file for bankruptcy.

“At the end of the day, what Bear Stearns was looking at was either taking $2 a share or going bust,” said one person involved in the negotiations. “Those were the only options.”

The sale of Bear Stearns and Sunday night’s move by the Fed to offer loans to other securities dealers mark the latest historic turns in what has become the most pervasive financial crisis in a generation. The issue is no longer whether it will yield a recession — that seems almost certain — but whether the concerted efforts of Wall Street and Washington can head off a recession much deeper and more prolonged than the past two, relatively mild ones.

Bear Stearns’s sudden meltdown forced the federal government to come to grips with the potential collapse of a major Wall Street institution for the first time in a decade. In 1998, about a dozen firms, with encouragement from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, provided a $3.6 billion bailout of Long-Term Capital Management that kept the big hedge fund alive long enough to liquidate its positions. Bear Stearns famously refused to participate in that rescue.

From Bloomberg:

Fed Cuts Discount Rate, Expands Loans to Avert Crisis

The Federal Reserve, struggling to prevent a meltdown in financial markets, cut the rate on direct loans to banks and became lender of last resort to the biggest dealers in U.S. government bonds.

In its first weekend emergency action in almost three decades, the central bank lowered the so-called discount rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.25 percent. The Fed also will lend to the 20 firms that buy Treasury securities directly from it. In a further step, the Fed will provide up to $30 billion to JPMorgan Chase & Co. to help it finance the purchase of Bear Stearns Cos. after a run on Wall Street’s fifth-largest securities firm.

“It is a serious extension of putting the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in harm’s way,” said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Fed and now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “That’s got to tell you the economy is in a pretty precarious state.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble | 303 Comments

“But if we think home prices overshot on the way up, why can’t they overshoot on the way down too?”

From Fortune:

How bad is the mortgage crisis going to get?

Fortune: By year-end, 15 million Americans could have mortgages worth more than the value of their homes. What happens then?

Krugman: Actually, I think home prices will fall enough for us to produce about 20 million people with negative equity. That’s almost a quarter of U.S. homes. If home prices are rising, or if there’s positive equity, you can refinance or sell. But if you have negative equity, you can end up being foreclosed on, and then some people will just find it to their advantage to walk away. We’re probably heading for $6 trillion or $7 trillion in capital losses in housing. Some fraction of that will fall on owners of mortgages. I still think the estimates people are putting out there – $400 billion or $500 billion in losses – are too low. I think there’ll be $1 trillion of losses on mortgage-backed securities showing up somewhere.

How far do you think home prices will fall?

My preferred metric is the ratio of home prices to rental rates. By that measure, average home prices nationally got way too high. We’ll probably basically retrace all that. So that’s about a 25% decline in overall home prices. Only a fraction of that’s happened so far. Of course, it varies a lot. In places like Houston or Atlanta, where home prices have not risen much compared with underlying rents, the decline will be relatively small. In places like Miami or Los Angeles, you could be looking at 40% or 50% declines.

Is there a risk of a spiral too, where the more homes that are foreclosed on, the lower home prices go?

Not without limit. But if we think home prices overshot on the way up, why can’t they overshoot on the way down too? And to the extent that this all produces a recession, that’s also bad for housing demand. People at the Fed are talking about feedback loops. At the moment, most of what they’re concerned about is that falling home prices are leading to a credit crunch, which is actually driving up mortgage rates and making mortgages unavailable, which is causing home prices to fall even more. I’m not one of those people who thinks the Great Depression is coming back, but there’s lots of echoes.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 2 Comments

Lowball!

From the NY Times:

Lowball Offers on the Rise
By LISA PREVOST
Published: March 16, 2008

WHAT image does the term “lowballer” conjure up for you? A smirking bottom feeder in a bad suit? A fast-talking investor working the phone?

How about a couple of young newlyweds who have saved their wedding cash to put toward their first home?

James and Valentina Sbarra fit the last description, and they are relieved to be able to call themselves successful lowballers. Any nervousness they felt in making a stingy offer — lowballing is typically defined as offering less than 90 percent of a house’s asking price — fell away the minute they struck a deal on their two-bedroom raised ranch in Pawling, N.Y., in Dutchess County.

“We kind of took a gamble,” said Mr. Sbarra, a bank manager in Mount Kisco, N.Y. “But it worked out for us.”

Throughout the region, buyers of all stripes are feeling similarly empowered to bid low and keep their hopes high. The practice still fails more often than not, in that buyers are unlikely to get themselves a steal. But many sellers are swallowing hard and negotiating, because lowballing has become so common that, for better or worse, it’s part of the new norm in buying or selling a house.

The Sbarras gambled by offering $287,000 for their house, which was listed at a reasonable $329,000. In doing so, they risked angering the owner and ruining their prospects for negotiation.

“I think it’s worth $320, $325, and I gave them my opinion,” said Peter Bell, an owner of Balch Buyer’s Realty in Mamaroneck, N.Y., an agency that represents only buyers. “But they said, ‘We don’t want to go too high.’ So I said, ‘O.K., let me make the offer as strong as I can, and we’ll hope for the best.’ ”

Much to Mr. Bell’s delight, the owner responded with a counteroffer of $315,000, and the parties went back and forth until settling on a price of $300,000, the amount the Sbarras had set as their cutoff. The couple moved in last month.

“We would have been disappointed if it hadn’t worked out,” Mr. Sbarra said. “But it was a situation where we felt buyers had the upper hand.”

Tami Rapaport, a sales associate in the Tenafly, N.J., office of Coldwell Banker Residential, finds the same thing happening in Bergen County. “People are coming in with offers even 20 percent under,” she said. “People have no shame.”

To be sure, there is an aspect of lowballing that seeks to take advantage of other people’s desperation or misfortune. Some lowball bids are plain outlandish, never mind insulting.

Yet in a difficult real estate market like this one, advocates of the lowball approach say that, practiced respectfully and within the bounds of reason, it can also serve as a necessary reality check on overpriced properties. If some agents are reluctant to push stubborn sellers to lower their prices out of fear of losing the listing, a few disappointingly low offers will communicate the market’s message in the bluntest terms.

James Bednar has been tracking New Jersey lowballers on his blog, New Jersey Real Estate Report (available at njrereport.com) since mid-2006. Inspired by his own frustrations as a buyer, Mr. Bednar said he wanted to test the conventional wisdom that lowballing “was a waste of time — that it was futile to even attempt it.”

So, after obtaining a real estate license, which gives him access to multiple listing service data, he began periodically posting lists of sales with gaps of 10 percent or more between the original list price and the selling price.

At first, the conventional wisdom held up — only a tiny percentage of sales reflected accepted lowball offers. But as the market began to slide, the discounts deepened. His last “Lowball!” report, in January, used a 25 percent discount as the starting point, and he still turned up 55 sales in the previous month.

A real estate agent now himself, Mr. Bednar sees no shame in making a low offer on a property clearly priced well above the market. While even 5 percent below the asking price might be considered an unfair lowball on a reasonably priced home, on a property priced “horribly high,” he said, “20 percent might be just scratching the surface.”

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 263 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

Now Open, Part II!

Prior weekend thread closed due to comment overflow.

Posted in General | 159 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 429 Comments

“This is not the time to raise spending. We need to have cuts.”

From Bloomberg:

Corzine Says Revenue Drop May Force Steeper Cuts

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine said growing home foreclosures and unemployment are cutting into state tax revenue and he may have to make deeper spending cuts than the $2.7 billion he proposed last month.

Corzine, a first-term Democrat, declined to say how much revenue had fallen in recent months. Collections for December, the last month reported, were $53.1 million or 1.7 percent below projections, according to the state Treasury Department.

“It’s real and we’ve seen a dramatic change in revenue at the state level,” Corzine said today in Trenton during an address to mayors. “This is not the time to raise spending. We need to have cuts.”

The warning comes as the Legislature deliberates on Corzine’s proposed $33 billion spending plan for the year beginning July 1. His budget, which is $500 million less than the current year, would cut aid to hospitals and higher education and eliminate at least 3,000 government jobs. Lawmakers in the governor’s own party oppose his plan to trim $190 million in aid for the towns and cities.

Corzine said the cuts are needed to overcome years of overspending and borrowing in New Jersey that have created chronic budget deficits and a record $32 billion of debt.

“It’s not a pleasant project but it’s one that has to be done,” Corzine told the New Jersey State League of Municipalities. “The dollars aren’t there.”

Corzine, in an interview later today on CNBC, said the U.S. economy may go into a worse recession than many expect because of a decline in consumer spending and higher costs for energy and food. He said port shipments have dropped 15 percent, the state lost 9,000 jobs in January and sales tax collections are dropping.

The governor told mayors the economic impacts of higher prices for gasoline and health care are contributing to lower revenue. December income tax collections were 1.4 percent below targets, while casino tax revenue was off by 24 percent and motor fuels tax revenue was 33 percent under budget, according to treasury department figures.

New Jersey reported a 4.5 percent unemployment rate in January, up from 4.3 percent a year earlier, the state’s labor department said last month.

The percentage of mortgages in foreclosure in New Jersey nearly doubled in the fourth quarter of 2007 to 1.89 percent from 1 percent a year earlier, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

Senate Majority Leader Tom Kean, a Westfield Republican, said Corzine should immediately cease all non-essential spending and delay any planned borrowing until the governor and Legislature rework his budget proposal.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 64 Comments

Is it here yet?

From the Wall Street Journal:

Most Economists Say Recession Has Arrived as Outlook Darkens
By PHIL IZZO
March 13, 2008

The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey, a view that was reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month.

“The evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt,” said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co., who was among the 71% of 51 respondents to say that the economy is now in a recession.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales tumbled 0.6% in February; sales excluding volatile auto and parts decreased 0.2%. The decline reflected a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, as Americans grapple with high gasoline prices and the credit crunch, as well as drops in home values and other asset prices.

The survey, conducted March 7 through March 11, marked a precipitous shift to the negative from the previous survey conducted five weeks earlier. For example, the economists now expect nonfarm payrolls to grow by an average of only 9,000 jobs a month for the next 12 months — down from an expected 48,500 in the previous survey. Twenty economists now expect payrolls to shrink outright. And the average forecast for the unemployment rate was raised to 5.5% by December from 4.8% in the previous survey.

Much of the gloom stemmed from last Friday’s employment report, which showed a loss of 63,000 jobs in February, the second consecutive monthly decline. “My recession call comes from the employment data,” said Stephen Stanley of RBS Greenwich Capital. “It struck me as a recessionary number.”

Twenty-nine of 55 respondents said they expect the economy to contract in the current quarter and 25 expect it to do so in the second. The average of all the forecasts is for meager growth — just 0.1% at an annual rate in the current quarter and 0.4% in the second.

The economists also expressed growing concerns that a 2008 recession could be worse than both the 2001 and 1990-91 downturns. They put the odds of a deeper downturn at an average 48%, up from 39% in the previous survey. Mark Nielson of MacroEcon Global Advisors said that “we recognize the previous two recessions were mild and, if a recession does occur, it is likely to be slightly worse than the previous two.”

One thing is clear: The darkening economic outlook has made Ben Bernanke’s job less secure, especially with a new president about to enter the White House. The economists gave the Fed chairman just a 59% chance of being reappointed in 2010. “If a Democrat is elected he won’t be reappointed, and [presumptive Republican presidential nominee John] McCain may opt for another, too,” said David Resler of Nomura Securities. “The problems occurred on his watch,” added Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 30 Comments

Further to fall

From the Wall Street Journal:

Mind the Gap: Home-Price Downside
By SCOTT PATTERSON
March 13, 2008

The economic balance hangs in large part on how much further home prices will fall. A look at one important measure — the relationship between home prices and household income — suggests we might not even be halfway there.

Over the long run, home prices and income should march along the same path. As households earn more, they can afford to pay for more expensive homes.

But the two can get out of whack. During much of the 1990s, incomes grew faster than home prices. The landscape shifted around 2000. From the start of the decade through the mid-2006 peak, home prices nearly doubled, thanks in part to falling interest rates. Over the same period, income per household rose just 26%, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

In certain states, the disparity was extreme. Seven states, including California, Florida and Arizona, saw annualized growth in home prices outpace income growth by 10 percentage points from 2002 through 2006, according to housing expert Thomas Lawler.

The difference between income growth and home prices has started to narrow. Home prices were down 10% through the fourth quarter from their peak in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller national home-price index. But to bring prices in line with incomes, they will need to fall further. If incomes continue to grow in the next year as they have in the past decade — probably an optimistic assumption — it would take a 9% to 12% drop in home prices to bring the two measures in line with each other.

In states that saw bigger housing bubbles, the correction will be more severe, says Mr. Lawler.

It is also possible that home prices will overshoot on the downside, just as they did on the upside. Goldman Sachs economists say prices could fall another 15%. Merrill Lynch economists say they could drop another 20% to 30%. Both banks have been more bearish than others on the economy — and so far look correct to have been so pessimistic.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 380 Comments

February foreclosures up 60%

From CNN/Money:

Foreclosures up 60% in February

Foreclosure filings nationwide jumped 60% in February compared with the same month last year, but they decreased slightly versus January, according to a report released Thursday.

RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosure properties, said 223,651 homes got hit with foreclosure filings last month, which include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. 46,508 of those were lost to bank repossessions, which more than doubled over last year.

The report also indicated that foreclosure filings in February fell 4% compared with January, similar to a 6% decrease that occurred during the same time-span in 2007.

The monthly decrease is a “seasonal occurrence,” according to Rick Sharga, a RealtyTrac spokesman. Foreclosure rates spike in January when homeowners are saddled with extra debt from the holidays, then settle in February, he said.

The report suggests that efforts from government and consumer groups to combat the rising number of foreclosures have not had a significant impact, according to Jared Bernstein, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

“I don’t see evidence that any of the interventions we’ve been implementing are having any effect,” he said. The report “doesn’t show that measures have failed but it’s pretty clear that nothing we’ve undertaken is slowing foreclosures.”

Sharga pointed out that the most recent action by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into the credit markets could help the mortgage market, though he agreed with Bernstein that “the previously announced government initiatives haven’t had any effect.”

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | Comments Off on February foreclosures up 60%

Home equity loan losses soar

From the Wall Street Journal:

Latest Trouble Spot for Banks: Souring Home-Equity Loans
Losses May Hit Lenders That Skirted Subprime; Surprise Delinquents
By ROBIN SIDEL
March 12, 2008; Page C1

Here comes another headache for banks suffering from the mortgage downturn: Losses on home-equity loans are soaring, even at some lenders that avoided big blunders on subprime loans.

When times were good, banks raked in billions of dollars in profit from home-equity loans, which allow borrowers to tap the accumulated value in their property with either a loan for a specific amount or a line of credit. As long as home prices were rising, lenders had little to worry about.

But falling home values are leaving banks with little or nothing to collect on many home-equity loans in case of default. Some stretched borrowers are keeping up with their mortgage and credit cards — but not their home-equity loan.

The problems are already causing trouble for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., and are expected to hit other large banks when first-quarter earnings results are released next month. The pain is likely to deepen through the rest of 2008, sapping capital levels and resulting in tighter lending standards as banks try to reduce their risk.

“These losses are well beyond what we would have modeled…and continue to get worse,” said Charles Scharf, head of J.P. Morgan’s retail business.

Now, the steep decline in housing prices and weak economy are turning the home-equity business upside down. About 4.65% of fixed-rate home-equity loans were delinquent in the fourth quarter of 2007, up from 3.11% a year earlier, according to Equifax Inc. and Moody’s Economy.com.

“We will continue to see banks increasing reserves for their home-equity portfolios and tightening their home-equity policies, changing their credit standards in response to price declines,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Meanwhile, financial institutions are refusing to provide home-equity loans to homeowners whose residences are already weighed down by big mortgages in states like California and Florida where home values are falling fast.

“This product was meant to help people do construction on their house, [and] do debt consolidation — not to take out every last dollar of equity in their home to finance a different kind of lifestyle,” Mr. Scharf said. J.P. Morgan is “rolling our changes back to represent that kind of product.”

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | Comments Off on Home equity loan losses soar

“The debate is shifting from whether it is a downturn to how long and how deep it will be”

From Bloomberg:

Slowdown in U.S. Will Be Deeper, Recovery Weaker, Survey Shows

The economic slowdown in the U.S. will be deeper and the recovery weaker than previously forecast, according to a Bloomberg News monthly survey.

The world’s largest economy will grow at an annual rate of 0.3 percent from January through June, a half point less than projected in February, according to the median estimate of 62 economists polled from March 3 to March 10.

Rising fuel prices, shrinking payrolls and falling home values will weaken consumer spending and blunt the impact of tax rebates that start going out in May. The Federal Reserve, struggling to offset the credit crunch and housing contraction, will cut the benchmark interest rate by another percentage point and keep it at 2 percent through December, the survey predicts.

“We’re now more pessimistic about the pace of recovery into 2009,” said Richard Berner, co-head of global economics at Morgan Stanley in New York. “We now see the Fed pursuing a slightly more accommodative path for monetary policy than just a week ago.”

The odds of a recession over the next 12 months were pegged at 50 percent, the same as in the February survey, according to the median estimate of 42 economists that responded to the question.

“The debate is shifting from whether it is a downturn to how long and how deep it will be,” said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York. “We have a 55 percent probability of recession. Now it looks like it’s starting in the current quarter.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 274 Comments

What happened to the “Deal of the Century”?

From the Record:

Home builder reports $131M loss

Hovnanian Enterprises, the state’s largest homebuilder, reported Monday that it lost $131 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2008, more than double its $57 million loss in the same period a year ago.

It was the company’s sixth consecutive quarterly loss. Like other home builders, Hovnanian has been struggling with a deep downturn in demand for housing, following a boom in the first half of this decade.

“Market conditions remain challenging across many of our markets,” said Ara K. Hovnanian, president and chief executive officer. “We continue to focus on reducing our inventories, maximizing cash flow and shrinking our overhead.”

Hovnanian is the developer of a number of communities in North Jersey, including the Four Seasons at Great Notch community in West Paterson, town houses in Hawthorne and Montvale, and several luxury residential buildings along the Hudson River waterfront in Jersey City, West New York and North Bergen.

The company’s first quarter loss came to $2.07 a share, up from 91 cents a share in the year-ago period.

In its 2007 fiscal year, which ended Oct. 31, Hovnanian lost $637.8 million, or $10.11 a share. The largest part of that loss came in the fourth quarter, when the company lost $469.3 million.

Since mid-2006, the company has cut staff, discounted prices and dropped options to buy land.

“They make not make it through 2008,” said Vicki Bryan, a Friendswood, Texas-based senior high- yield analyst for New York-based Gimme Credit LLC. “The only way to generate cash is to sell inventory, and if you’ve cut your prices then you’ve cut the value of your collateral, which is your unsold homes.”

Ara Hovnanian told Bloomberg TV on Feb. 21 that the company had rolled prices back to the levels of 2002 and 2003.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development | 4 Comments