A global housing bubble bursting?

From Bloomberg:

U.K. House Prices Decline, Worst Streak Since 1995

U.K. house prices fell for a third month in November, the worst performance in more than a decade, and services growth slowed, increasing speculation the Bank of England will cut interest rates tomorrow.

The average cost of a home in Britain declined 1.1 percent to 194,895 pounds ($400,000) from a month earlier, a report by HBOS Plc showed today. Prices last fell for three months in a row in 1995. Services from banking to travel grew at the slowest pace in four years last month, according to an index by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply.

House prices rose 6.3 percent in the quarter through November from a year earlier, down a 2007 peak of 11.1 percent in March, HBOS said.

“It’s looking pretty grotty out there,” said Geoffrey Dicks, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. Today’s housing figures are “yet another indicator that the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble | 256 Comments

Remodel before selling?

From the Record:

Curb appeal can pay dividends

If you’re looking for improvements that can boost a home’s sale price, start with the outside.

That was the finding in a recent Remodeling magazine survey. Though most home improvements don’t pay for themselves at resale, the survey found that the projects with the greatest return on the dollar are those that improve a home’s curb appeal, such as new siding, decks and windows.

Overall these days, home sellers recover about 70 cents for every dollar they’ve spent for home improvements. That’s down from more than 80 cents in 2005. The survey’s authors say this is the result of higher costs for home remodeling and declining sale prices. But in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, home prices have not dropped as much as in other regions. As a result, sellers can recoup a higher percentage of their home improvement expenses, the study found.

Still, as a general rule, sellers don’t get back the full cost of improvements.

“In a market that’s flat to declining, which is the kind of market we’re in now with home prices, I’m counseling sellers not to dump tremendous amounts of money into their homes,” said Sal Poliandro, an agent with Re/Max Properties in Ridgewood. He cited one recent seller who had spent $200,000 on a pool and landscaping in Franklin Lakes. “He had a 45-foot waterfall,” Poliandro said. “It was very nice, but no one is going to pay extra for that.”

Renovation projects in the region generally cost more than they do nationally. For example, a metropolitan-area homeowner who replaces siding will pay $11,954 for a mid-priced job, but receive an additional $13,711 at resale. By contrast, a mid-priced siding replacement runs about $9,910 nationally but the homeowner will recoup only $8,245 at resale.

The least profitable projects, nationally and in the region, are a backup generator, sunroom addition and home office remodel.

One of the most popular jobs — a kitchen remodel — returns about 95 percent of its cost in the New York metropolitan area, the survey found, compared with about 80 percent nationwide.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 13 Comments

Pointing a finger at the street

From the WSJ:

Wall Street Firms Are Subpoenaed
New York Examines Treatment
Of Debt Tied to Risky Mortgages
By KARA SCANNELL
December 5, 2007; Page C2

New York state prosecutors have sent subpoenas to several Wall Street firms seeking information related to the packaging and selling of debt tied to high-risk mortgages, people familiar with the matter say, the latest legal woe to hit the stressed industry.

The subpoenas, sent by the office of New York state’s attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, are broadly written and request information from firms including Merrill Lynch & Co., Bear Stearns Cos. and Deutsche Bank AG, people familiar with the matter say.

The review, part of a broader investigation into the mortgage industry, is examining how adequately the investment banks reviewed the quality of mortgages before packaging them into products that were then sold to investors, these people say. The subpoenas also requested information about how the debt was pooled into securities, including the banks’ relationship with credit-rating firms.

A spokesman for Mr. Cuomo couldn’t be reached. A Merrill spokesman declined to comment on the subpoena, saying: “We always cooperate with regulators when asked to do so.” Bear Stearns and Deutsche Bank declined to comment.

The state-prosecutor inquiry is the latest twist in the fallout stemming from residential subprime mortgages. A rise in defaults and foreclosures, particularly among low-end borrowers, has whipsawed global stock and bond markets, led to the dismissal of two Wall Street chief executives, and resulted in losses by banks, hedge funds and securities firms. The Securities and Exchange Commission has opened about two-dozen investigations stemming from the collapse of residential subprime mortgages, a person with knowledge of the situation said. In addition, the role of credit-rating firms is being examined by federal and state regulators.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | Comments Off on Pointing a finger at the street

“People have to be responsible for their own actions”

From the WSJ:

Some Cry Foul Over Relief Plan For Borrowers
By SUDEEP REDDY, DOUGLAS BELKIN and JONATHAN KARP
December 4, 2007; Page D1

The Bush administration’s plan to give subprime borrowers a break on their mortgages is already catching flak from an unexpected source: other homeowners.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, at a housing conference yesterday, said he is “aggressively pursuing” an agreement with lenders and investor groups to freeze rates on subprime adjustable-rate mortgages at their original levels. The proposal, aimed at helping homeowners who would fall behind in their payments at higher rates, is designed to prevent a surge in foreclosures next year. About 1.5 million subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset to higher rates in 2008.

But as outlines of the plan become known, some homeowners are complaining that the effort isn’t fair to borrowers who didn’t overextend themselves. Others argue that the government shouldn’t be involved in perpetuating a housing bubble that needs to deflate. A key question: How far should you go to help borrowers who can’t pay their bills?

“People have to be responsible for their own actions,” says Harry Lancz, a small-business owner in Traverse City, Mich. He holds a pair of fixed-rate mortgages, one for his primary residence, which has been for sale for six months, and one for a second home in Louisiana. “What are you going to do when their credit cards get due and they can’t pay? Are you going to bail them out on that, too?”

Like many homeowners, Mr. Lancz, 57, is skeptical that the plan will actually lessen the impact of the housing crisis. “Unless you give them the money, this is just postponing the inevitable,” he says. “The more the government steps in, the more things get into a deeper quagmire.”

Even some subprime borrowers object to the plan. Justin Miller, a 27-year-old mortgage broker in Coral Springs, Fla., says he made a bad investment decision when he bought a $600,000 oceanfront home last December with two subprime loans. But he’s committed to making the $6,000 in monthly payments — and the higher payments once the rates go up.

“A lot of people are trying to point fingers and get themselves out of something they put themselves into,” he says. “I put myself in this position. I need to find a way to make it work.”

Mr. Miller says that the rate-freeze proposal reminds him of a television commercial: The announcer asks, “Do you owe back taxes?” A client responds, “I settled for half of what I owe.” Says Mr. Miller: “How’s that fair? Everything seems to be backward.”

The Paulson plan wouldn’t help subprime mortgage holders who can afford the higher payments. In addition, it won’t help those who can’t manage to make their payments even at current rates. Because of that, some consumer advocates say the plan doesn’t go far enough in helping troubled borrowers.

“This only deals with one of the easiest of the categories” of borrowers, says Mike Shea, executive director of Acorn Housing Corp., a national housing-counseling organization. “It will do nothing to help those people who are currently delinquent and facing foreclosure.” Mr. Shea praises Mr. Paulson for trying, but points out, for example, that some mortgage-loan servicers already are freezing rates for five to seven years, so a grace period shorter than that in the government’s proposal could be a step backward.

For many people, the crucial question is whether taxpayers will pick up the tab; Mr. Paulson said they won’t. Melissa Huelsman, a Seattle lawyer who represents homeowners facing foreclosure, says she is in favor of a relief plan as long as it doesn’t entail public funds. “I would support it if the lenders and Wall Street take the hit,” she says.

Posted in National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 245 Comments

North Jersey November Residential Sales

Preliminary November sales and inventory data for Northern New Jersey is in. Please note that this data is subject to revision.

The first graph plots the unadjusted sales data (closed sales) for the counties listed. Please note the lower bound of the graph, it is set to 1000, not to zero. I do this to emphasize the seasonal nature of the Northern NJ market.


(click to enlarge)

The second graph is another view at the sales data for the full year. Please note that this graph does cross at zero.


(click to enlarge)

The third graph displays only November sales, 2000 to 2007 YOY.


(click to enlarge)

The fourth graph displays an overlay of Sales and Inventory from 2003 to 2007.


(click to enlarge)

The last graph displays the year over year change in inventory on a monthly basis.


(click to enlarge)

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 251 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion Part II

Due to the fact that threads become difficult to follow past the 500 comment mark, I’ve opened a new weekend discussion thread for the day.

Enjoy!

Posted in General | 89 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

(Comments closed)

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 523 Comments

NJ subprime foreclosure rate above national average

From the Record:

N.J. subprime woes worse than nation’s

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York issued a report Friday that sheds light on the condition of subprime mortgages in New Jersey, and it’s not a pretty picture.

Nine percent of more than 63,000 securitized adjustable rate subprime loans in the state were in foreclosure in August, according to the first-of-its kind report to track the condition of loans given to non-prime borrowers in New York and New Jersey.

Being in foreclosure means that lenders had initiated steps to repossess the property.

Nine percent of 63,000 loans represents about 5,670 homes in foreclosure.

The Fed estimates that securitized subprime loans include about 75 percent of all subprime loans. Securitized means bundled together and resold to investors as mortgage-backed securities.

Payments on only 67 percent of the loans — which totaled $16.5 billion in outstanding balances — were up-to-date.

“More than 30 percent in arrears is a striking number,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, a publisher of financial information.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending | 3 Comments

Home Prices Do Fall

Was there ever any doubt that home prices could fall? Below you’ll find a sampling of listings that have either sold, or are currently for sale and have seen price reductions in the past week. Every case has either sold for less than the original purchase price, or is currently for sale and is asking less than the original purchase price.

Please keep in mind that these were not “cherry picked” or “data mined” transactions. These were all found simply looking at the daily hotsheet (GSMLS and NJMLS) over the past week.

Caveat Emptor!

Sales Transactions

39 Port Colden Road, Washington Twp (REO)
Purchased: 8/26/2005
Purchase Price: $235,000

MLS# 2375419
OLP: $209,000
LP: $169,000
Sold: 11/19/2007
Sale Price: $169,000 (28% loss)

313 Ohio Ave, Pohatcong NJ
Purchased: 8/3/2005
Purchase Price: $305,000

MLS# 2446277
OLP: $304,900
LP: $299,000
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $281,500 (8% loss)

1 South Locust Lake Road, Hope (REO)
Purchased: 12/17/2003
Purchase Price: $290,000

MLS# 2344781
OLP: $389,900
LP: $299,900
Sold: 11/27/2007
Sale Price: $245,000 (15% loss)

2 The Arbors, New Providence
Purchased: 10/2/2006
Purchase Price: $405,000

MLS# 2403527
OLP: $419,900
LP: $399,000
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $399,000 (1.5% loss)

820 Passaic Ave, Linden (short sale)
Purchased: 11/8/2006
Purchase Price: $337,000

MLS# 2427965
OLP: $278,975
LP: $258,957
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $259,000 (23% loss)

31 Tall Oaks, Vernon
Purchased: 7/6/2005
Purchase Price: $365,000

MLS# 2406099
OLP: $347,900
LP: $337,900
Sold: 11/27/2007
Sale Price: $309,900 (15% loss)

1 Parkside Terrace, West Paterson
Purchased: 6/16/2006
Purchase Price: $435,000

MLS# 2436182
OLP/LP: $399,000
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $382,500 (12% loss)

147 Cambridge Ct, Clifton NJ (Short sale? Error?)
Purchased: 4/12/2004
Purchase Price: $279,000

MLS# 2426580
OLP: $359,900
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $237,500 (4% loss)

1391 Pompton Ave, Cedar Grove (Short sale)
Purchased: 7/12/2006
Purchase Price: $350,000

MLS# 2436344
OLP/LP: $319,000
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $300,000 (14% loss)

15 Overlook Terrace, Bloomfield
Purchased: 9/16/2005
Purchase Price: $332,500

MLS# 2432976
OLP/LP: $334,900
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $320,000 (4% loss)

4-11 Lambert Road, Fair Lawn
Purchased: 6/6/2005
Purchase Price: $372,900

MLS# 2397650
OLP: $389,900
LP: $369,900
Sold: 11/29/2007
Sale Price: $330,000 (11% loss)

2185 Lemoine Ave, Fort Lee NJ
Purchased: 6/30/2005
Purchase Price: $335,000

Sale Date: 11/19/2007
Sale Price: $265,000 (21% Loss)

Currently for sale:

520 Floyd Street
Purchased: 9/26/2006
Purchase Price: $790,000

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2733003
Original List Price: $899,000
Current Asking Price: $749,000 (5% under purchase)

175 Parker Ave, Maplewood (REO, HSBC)
Purchased: 12/16/2004
Purchase Price: $490,000

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2445181
OLP: $476,500
Current asking: $441,900
(10% below 2004 purchase price)

14 Fernwood Road, Livingston
Purchased: 1/22/2007
Purchase Price: $995,000

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2430585
OLP: $995,000
Current asking: $899,000
(10% below purchase price)

306 21st Street, Irvington (REO)
Purchased: 4/14/2005
Purchase Price: $140,000

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2448943
Original List: $98,500
Current Asking: $79,900
(43% below purchase price)

792 Park Ave, River Edge
Purchased: 9/20/2006
Purchase Price: $405,000

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2438705
Original List: $422,000
Current Asking: $377,000
(7% below purchase price)

1091 Ash Drive, Mahwah (Short Sale?)
Purchased: 9/15/2006
Purchase Price: $367,500

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2439202
Original List Price: $369,000
Current asking: $334,000
(9% below purchase price)

53 Forest Road, Allendale NJ
Purchased: 8/27/2007
Purchase Price: $850,000

Current MLS# 2742039
Original List Price: $869,000
Current Asking Price: $819,000 (4% below purchase price)

520 Floyd Street, Waldwick NJ
Purchased: 12/22/2005
Purchase Price: $575,000

Current MLS# 2733003 11/17/2007
Original List Price: $599,000
Current Asking Price: $479,900 (16% under purchase)

86 Platt Ave, Saddle Brook NJ
Purchased: 10/2006
Purchase Price: $700,000

MLS# 2717166/2746969
OLP: $825,000
Cuurent asking price: $689,000 (1.6% under purchase)

290 Kinderkamack Road, River Edge NJ
Purchased: 8/2006
Purchase Price: $585,000

MLS# 2746946
OLP/LP: $575,000 (1.7% under purchase)

43 Walnut Ave, Bogota NJ
Purchased: 2/20/2005
Purchase Price: $423,000

MLS# 2741479
OLP: $379,900 ($494,900)
Current Asking: $362,000 (14% under purchase)

115 Elm Street, Fairview NJ
Purchased: 6/17/2005
Purchase Price: $410,000

MLS# 2740317
OLP: $449,000
Current asking price: $390,000 (5% under purchase)

15 Lee Street, Elmwood Park NJ
Purchased: 7/31/2006
Purchase Price: $390,000

Currently for sale, listed as:
MLS# 2713892
Original List Price: $447,000
Current Asking: $365,000 (6% under purchase)

144 Franklin Ave, Midland Park NJ (REO)
Purchased: 8/2/2005
Purchase Price: $630,000

Currently for sale, listed as:
MLS# 2734110
Original List Price: $539,900
Current Asking: $519,900 (17% under purchase price)

512 Highridge Ave, Cliffside Park NJ
Purchased: 1/30/2006
Purchase Price: $900,000

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2740898 (multiple relistings)
Original List Price: $1,120,000
Current Asking: $850,000 (6% under purchase)

55 Elm Street, Englewood Cliffs, NJ
Purchased: 10/28/2005
Purchase Price: $865,000

Currently active, listed as:
MLS# 2614876
Original List Price: $1,025,000
Current Asking: $849,000 (2% under purchase)

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 9 Comments

NJ business activity “fallen close to recession levels”

From the APP:

Outlook for 08 first half in N.J. not rosy

New Jersey’s business climate forecast remains chilly.

As they did a year ago, nearly half of the state’s businesses expect state economic conditions to weaken in the first six months of the coming year, while only 13 percent expect improvement, according to a report released Wednesday by the New Jersey Business and Industry Association. They are more optimistic about sales and profits for their own businesses.

However, the 1,300 businesses that responded to the annual survey expect the economic decline to be moderate, said Philip Kirschner, president of the NJBIA. Favorable business conditions peaked in 2005 and have declined rapidly since.

“Not only has business activity slowed since 2005,” Kirschner said, “but it has also fallen close to recession levels.”

The cost of running a business in the state was a main factor worrying respondents, with rising health care costs remaining the biggest problem.

“Health care costs are just astronomical,” said Philip Brilliant, chief operating officer of Brilliant Lewis Environmental Services and former president of the Ocean County Business Association.

Matthew Wright, president of Apgar Bros. Inc., a Bound Brook trucking company, said, “Insurance costs are more troubling than fuel costs because we can’t control them.”

Businesses expect slow job growth as well. Sixty-one percent expect employment to remain the same, and only a quarter expect to increase hiring.

The state’s growth in private-sector jobs is about half the national rate, according to the National Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Jim Kocsi, district director for the U.S. Small Business Administration, said businesses are “cautious” about expanding because of an up-and-down stock market and a struggling housing market.

“We are in this hold mode right now where people are saying, “Maybe I should just lay low for a while and see which way this is breaking,”‘ Kocsi said.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 380 Comments

October New Home Sales

From Bloomberg:

U.S. New-Home Sales Probably Fell in October as Slump Deepens

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. probably fell in October, deepening the real estate slump that threatens to stall economic growth, economists said before reports today.

Sales fell 2.6 percent to an annual pace of 750,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report may show the economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter, the most in four years.

The collapse in subprime lending and turmoil in financial markets are projected to extend the housing recession well into 2008. Some economists now forecast the world’s biggest economy will grow this quarter at less than a fifth the previous three months’ pace, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower rates.

“The expansion is slowing,” said Gary Bigg, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “Prospects for future home sales remain dim.”

The Commerce Department is scheduled to issue the home sales report in Washington at 10 a.m. The 71 estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 705,000 to 785,000. Purchases reached an 11-year low of 735,000 in August.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Development | Comments Off on October New Home Sales

U.S. Foreclosures up 94%

From CNN/Money:

October foreclosure filings surge

Foreclosure filings nearly doubled in October and more people could lose their homes in 2008, according to a report released Thursday.

In October, 224,451 foreclosure filings were reported nationwide, up 94 percent from October 2006 and up 2 percent from September, according to RealtyTrac.

In the month, 53,609 U.S. homeowners were forced out of homes repossessed by banks, up from 20,768 a year ago, the firm said. Through October, a total of 309,557 homes have been repossessed by banks leading to forced evictions.

“Some people are in over their heads, owing more than what they can sell their house for,” said RealtyTrac spokesman Daren Blomquist.

For the full year, RealtyTrac expects 2 million homes to have entered the foreclosure process – including bank repossessions, default notices and auction sale notices.

Foreclosures could hit homeowners even harder in the beginning of 2008, Blomquist said. Homeowners experiencing trouble in the fall may not see a foreclosure notice until the January or later, he said.

On top of that, adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset in greater numbers through 2008, sending homeowners’ monthly mortgage payments higher, possibly to unmanageable levels.

“The other side of the vise pressing on these people is that it’s harder to refinance because lenders’ standards are tighter,” Blomquist added.

From Reuters:

Home foreclosures soar 94 percent: RealtyTrac

Home foreclosure filings in October edged up 2 percent from September but at 224,451 were a whopping 94 percent higher than a year earlier, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

The figure, a sum of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions, was down from a 32-month peak in August however, RealtyTrac, an online market of foreclosure of properties, said in its monthly foreclosure market report.

RealtyTrac said the national foreclosure rate was one filing for every 555 U.S. households in October.

“Overall foreclosure activity continues to register at a high level compared to last year but it appears to have leveled off over the past two months after hitting a high for the year in August,” James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.

In September, home foreclosure filings fell 8 percent.

Default rates in the subprime segment of the U.S. mortgage market, which caters to borrowers with poor credit histories, have jumped this year as the housing industry slowed and prices fell in many regions, particularly areas that benefited the most during the housing market’s boom from 2000 to 2005.

“Default notices were down nearly 9 percent in October, indicating that some of the efforts on the part of homeowners, lenders and advocacy groups to find alternatives to foreclosure may be starting to have an impact. On the other hand, bank repossessions were up nearly 35 percent, evidence that more homeowners who enter foreclosure are losing their homes,” Saccacio said.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 1 Comment

October Existing Home Sales

From Bloomberg:

U.S. October Existing Home Sales Fall 1.2% to 4.97 Million Rate

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in October to the lowest level in at least eight years as loan restrictions and the prospect of further price declines deterred buyers.

Purchases dropped 1.2 percent, more than forecast, to an annual rate of 4.97 million, the fewest since record keeping began in 1999, from a 5.03 million September pace, the National Association of Realtors said in Washington. Sales were down 20.7 percent from October 2006 and the median home price declined by the most on record.

Defaults on subprime mortgages have prompted banks to tighten lending standards, while foreclosures add to a glut of unsold properties that’s putting pressure on home prices. Lower property values raise the risk that consumers will curtail spending, making businesses more cautious about investing and compounding a slowdown in economic growth, economists said.

“Credit conditions seem to be getting tighter again, the economy is likely to slow and falling prices may be causing people to wait before buying,” David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, said before the report. “There is plenty of downside left in this market.”

From MarketWatch:

Supply of homes on market at 22-year high
Existing-home sales fall 1.2% to 4.97 million pace in October

Sales of existing homes fell further in October even as more homes came on the market, driving the supply of homes to the highest level in 22 years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.

Sales dropped 1.2% to a 4.97 million seasonally adjusted annualized pace in October, the real estate advocacy group said. The sales pace is the lowest since 1999, when the group began tracking combined sales of single-family homes and condos.

Sales are down 20.7% in the past year and are down 31% from the peak of 7.21 million two years ago.
October sales were stronger than the 4.85 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
The inventory of unsold homes rose by 1.9% to 4.45 million, representing a 10.8 month supply, the highest since1999.

For single-family homes alone, the inventory of 10.5 months is the highest since July 1985.
The median sales price fell 5.1% in the past year to $207,800. That’s the largest year-over-year price decline ever recorded.

From CNBC:

Home Sales, Prices Fell Further In October

The pace of U.S. existing home sales in the United States fell 1.2 percent in October to
a record low 4.97 million-unit pace, the National Association of Realtors said, amid a nationwide credit crunch and a spike in failing home loans.

The median existing home price of $207,800 was a decline of 5.1 percent from a year ago, a record drop.

The sales pace was the lowest since the realty trade group began tracking both single-family and condo sales jointly in 1999.

From the National Association of Realtors:

Existing-Home Sales and Prices Overview (PDF)

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 310 Comments

How The Mighty Have Fallen

From the New York Times:

Bracing for Home Loan Losses, Wells Fargo to Take Big Charge

Wells Fargo & Company, the nation’s second-largest mortgage lender, after Countrywide Financial, said yesterday that it would take a $1.4 billion fourth-quarter charge for losses it anticipated in connection with home loans.

The bank said that it would continue to provide home equity financing directly to customers, but that it would not originate or acquire home equity loans through indirect channels. Wells Fargo will also not originate home equity loans through third parties when the combined loan-to-value ratio of the first and second mortgages is over 90 percent or where the second mortgage is not behind a Wells Fargo loan.

The bank is putting $11.9 billion into a special liquidating portfolio. The bank’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission said that the figure is 3 percent of its total loans outstanding, but that it represents the riskiest element of the $83.4 billion in its National Home Equity Group portfolio. The loans are generally clustered in areas of the country that are having the greatest decline in retail prices.

R. Scott Siefers, an analyst who follows Wells Fargo for Sandler O’Neill, said: “It is unfortunate certainly because Wells Fargo has had an aura of invincibility. Over the last few years, it has not gotten involved in a lot of the issues that have caused so much pain for the group. It is one of the largest mortgage lenders in the country so this is going to be painful for everybody.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | Comments Off on How The Mighty Have Fallen

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indicies

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Fell Record 4.5% in Third Quarter

Home prices in the U.S. fell in the third quarter by the most in at least two decades as the subprime lending crisis caused sales to slump.

Home values retreated 4.5 percent in the three months through September from the same period a year before, the most since records began in 1988, according to a report today by S&P/Case-Shiller. It followed a 3.3 percent drop in the second quarter.

Prices will probably keep sliding as foreclosures force more properties on to the market and sales weaken as mortgages become harder to get. The slump threatens to slow consumer spending as fewer homeowners will be able to afford vacations, new autos or home improvement projects.

“Many house shoppers are going to hold off until they feel that markets have stabilized, and this will tend to prolong the price declines,” Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Philadelphia, said before the report. “As house prices fall, consumers feel less wealthy and more restricted in their discretionary spending.”

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 4.9 percent in the 12 months ended September, the most since S&P/Case-Shiller began compiling the index in 2001. The decline followed a 4.3 percent drop in August.

Economists forecast the 20-city gauge would decrease 4.8 percent in the quarter, according to the median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

From MarketWatch:

Home prices falling at record pace in third quarter

U.S. home prices fell 4.5% in the year ending in the third quarter, according to the national Case-Shiller price index released by Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday. Prices fell 1.7% compared with the second quarter. It’s by far the largest price decline in the 20 years covered by the index. Prices had fallen 3.2% in the year ending in the second quarter. Prices fell in all 20 major cities in September compared with August, and were down 4.9% in the past year. Prices fell 5.5% year-over-year in the original 10-city index. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks multiple sales of the same homes, is considered by many observers to be the best gauge of national and metropolitan-area real-estate values.

From Standard and Poor’s:

The S&P/Case-Shiller® U.S. National Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline in the 3rd Quarter of 2007 (PDF)

Posted in National Real Estate | 254 Comments