New Jersey Real Estate Report

From Marketplace:

Are we in a housing bubble? 

Pending homes sales continued falling in December, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Sales of existing homes that are under contract but haven’t closed dipped 0.3% from the previous month, the fourth monthly decline in a row.

When compared to the same month in the prior year, pending sales were still up more than 20% in December. But the month-to-month decline was a sign that high home prices — and tight supply — are starting to slow down sales.

According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index released this week, home prices were up 9.5% in November, and even higher in cities like Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego.

Such increases are reminiscent of the housing bubble in the mid-2000s, when a combination of low interest rates and loose lending standards fueled double-digit price appreciation.

Economists say today’s market is very different.

“I wouldn’t use the word ‘bubble,’ “ said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “Bubble implies that it’s speculation that’s driving home prices high, and it really is the fundamentals of the market.”

Demand is high, thanks partly to record-low interest rates, while the supply of homes for sale is at an all-time low.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was asked about a housing bubble at a news conference Wednesday. He called the recent price jumps “a passing phenomenon.”

“There’s a one-time thing happening with people who are spending all of their time in their house, and they’re thinking, either ‘I need a bigger house, or I need another house and a different house, or a second house’ in some cases,” Powell said.

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. teachers ‘next up to bat’ for COVID vaccine eligibility, Murphy says. He hasn’t said when.

New Jersey teachers are “next up to bat” to receive a vaccination for the coronavirus when eligibility expands, Gov. Phil Murphy said Wednesday. But how soon they’ll be able to get the shot remains unanswered.

Murphy, speaking during a morning CNN interview, said he understands the stress educators have to deal with while working during the pandemic. He has also advocated for as much in-person learning as possible, citing the benefit it has for students — particularly those who live in low-income households.

“When we add groups, I want to be able to add educators as fast as we can,” Murphy said.

“They’re in the on-deck circle,” he said. ”Educators are next up to bat.”

Currently, those eligible to receive the vaccine in New Jersey include health care workers, police, firefighters, long-term care residents, those over 65 years of age, those between 16 and 64 with certain health conditions and smokers. That’s more than 4 million people. The state has received 1.09 million doses from the federal government, according to the Centers for Disease Control tracker.

From ROI-NJ:

Is it time to reconsider regional reopening plan?

New Jersey Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Bracken said he had little hope when his organization approached Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration about a regional reopening plan last summer. His inclination proved correct.

“It was something that we, along with other organizations, presented to the administration,” he said. “They summarily dismissed it, saying, ‘One size fits all is the way we’re going.’”

Bracken said there’s reason to hope that’s no longer the case. He feels a bill (S3093/A4910) to create Red-Yellow-Green regional reopening zones around the state — one that passed through Senate (5-0) and Assembly (11-0) committees unanimously — has a chance.

“If you listen to the governor today, he’s starting to say that things are looking a little better,” Bracken said. “And we’ve got an economy that’s in the dump. So, I think this is one way to intelligently open the economy.”

The bill, which is sponsored by Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford), will certainly reach the Senate floor for a vote.

And, while passing the Senate — and the Assembly — is no guarantee of success (see the recent outdoor dining bill), there is one other thing that’s different in 2021: It’s an election year.

“That can only help,” Bracken said.

Christina Renna, the CEO of the Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey, certainly hopes. Her group also presented a regional reopening plan last summer, only to see it shot down.

The idea still makes sense to her.

“Encouraging a wider reopening of the state’s economy and caring about the health, safety and welfare of the state’s residents are not and should never be categorized as mutually exclusive,” she said. “A statewide, one-size-fits-all approach that refuses to consider the vast disparities in health metrics throughout different geographical areas of New Jersey has unnecessarily stalled portions of our economy. However, a geographic approach that collectively evaluates the health and demographic data in certain areas of the state is a reasonable method to decide where certain businesses can safely have higher occupancy rates and quicker reopenings.”

Renna, as the governor himself might say, appears to be following the data.

“This approach simply makes sense — and, if a geographic-based reopening plan has worked for many states in the nation, why can it not work in New Jersey?”

From NJ Insider:

NJDOL: State Unemployment Rate At 7.6%

Preliminary estimates produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that total nonfarm wage and salary employment in New Jersey decreased in December by 7,700 to reach a seasonally adjusted level of 3,890,000. Losses were recorded in both the private (-7,100) and public (-600) sectors of the state’s economy. 

The state’s unemployment rate fell by 2.6 percentage points to 7.6 percent in December, primarily due to New Jersey residents leaving the labor force rather than finding employment.  

The December data suggest that employment recovery from its pandemic-related April low point appears to have stalled in the 4th quarter of the year. New Jersey has regained a total of 479,400 jobs in the six months since April, or about 58 percent of jobs lost due to the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken in response to it. However, since September, total employment has contracted by 2,100 jobs. See the technical notes at the end of this release for information about the impact of the coronavirus on this month’s employment estimates. 

Based on more complete reporting from employers, previously released total nonfarm employment estimates for November were revised higher by 1,400 to show an over-the-month (October – November) increase of 8,500 jobs.  Preliminary estimates had indicated an over-the-month gain of 7,100 jobs. The state’s revised November unemployment rate was unchanged, remaining at 10.2 percent. 

In December, employment decreases were recorded in only four out of nine major private sectors. Sectors that recorded employment decreases include leisure and hospitality (-8,900), financial activities (-1,900), education and health services (-1,600) and information (-1,300). Sectors that recorded employment increases include construction (+3,100), professional and business services (+2,900), manufacturing (+300), trade, transportation, and utilities (+200), and other services (+200). The public sector recorded a decrease of 600 jobs over the month. 

From CNBC:

Yellen says U.S. must ‘act big’ on next coronavirus relief package

Janet Yellen, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee to run the Treasury Department, will tell the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday that the government must “act big” with its next coronavirus relief package.

Biden, who will be sworn into office on Wednesday, outlined a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal last week, saying bold investment was needed to jump-start the economy and accelerate the distribution of vaccines to bring the virus under control.

“Neither the president-elect, nor I, propose this relief package without an appreciation for the country’s debt burden. But right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big,” Yellen, a former Federal Reserve chair, said in a prepared opening statement for her hearing before the committee.

“I believe the benefits will far outweigh the costs, especially if we care about helping people who have been struggling for a very long time,” she said in the statement, which was obtained by Reuters.

The proposed aid package includes $415 billion to bolster the U.S. response to the virus and the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, some $1 trillion in direct relief to households, and roughly $440 billion for small businesses and communities particularly hard hit by the pandemic.

Many Americans would receive stimulus payments of $1,400, which would be on top of the $600 checks approved in a pandemic relief bill passed by Congress last month. Supplemental unemployment insurance would also increase to $400 a week from the current $300 a week, and it would be extended to September.

In her prepared testimony, Yellen also says the U.S. economy must be rebuilt “so that it creates more prosperity for more people and ensures that American workers can compete in an increasingly competitive global economy.”

From the Star Ledger:

N.J.’s vaccination rate is the worst in the Northeast. See how other states compare. 

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. unemployment exceeds 1.9 million filings since March. $300 payments hit bank accounts next week. 

More than 1.9 million unemployment claims have filed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in mid-March, and new claims are starting to climb again, the Department of Labor announced Thursday.

Nearly 21,000 new claims were filed for the week ending Jan. 2, an increase of 2.6% from the previous week’s 20,460 filings, the department said. Claims have been spiking since November, largely due to the holiday season and stormy weather, and have risen for five weeks straight, according to the Labor Department.

…

Nearly $20.7 billion have been distributed in benefits since mid-March, when the Department of Labor received a huge flood of unemployment claims as businesses were forced to close in response to the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The average claimant has received more than $14,000 in benefits.

From NJ Spotlight:

Murphy hails new tax break law as investment in state’s economy

Gov. Phil Murphy signed into law on Thursday a massive, $14 billion corporate tax-break bill that he said will help foster a stronger state economic recovery coming out of the coronavirus pandemic.

The new law’s enactment comes less than a month after the bill was introduced and put on a fast track by lawmakers following a deal reached with Murphy that resolved several longstanding economic-development policy disagreements.

The governor and several lawmakers who attended a morning bill-signing event in Hamilton, Mercer County, focused on ways they said the tax breaks established by their compromise could help generate new jobs in a state that has been ravaged by the ongoing COVID-19 health crisis.

“This is how we propel our economy moving forward to be a strong and resilient, post-COVID reality and future,” Murphy said.

The voluminous law updates economic-development tax-incentive programs that were allowed to expire more than a year ago as Murphy and fellow Democrats who control the Legislature were unable to reach an agreement to renew them.

The law also establishes several new programs to encourage things like historic preservation, brownfield remediation and the elimination of so-called food deserts in underserved communities. It also establishes tougher oversight provisions and labor protections and creates a new public-private venture-capital fund.

In all, the law would allow for up to $1.5 billion in tax breaks to be awarded annually over six years. The overall $9 billion allocation could be spread out  over seven years if the total value of awarded tax breaks doesn’t hit annual program caps in the first six years, according to the law. Another up to $2.5 billion in tax breaks could also be awarded for “transformative projects” over the six to seven years.

The law also sets aside $50 million in one-time funding for small-business assistance.

From Mansion Global:

U.S. Home Inventory Hits Historic Lows

Booming demand for U.S. homes drove the number of properties for sale to new lows in December, according to a report on Thursday. 

Nationwide, the number of homes for sale fell below 700,000 in December, the lowest in recent history, according to realtor.com. A flurry of demand that has vastly outpaced new listings to the market has steadily eroded U.S. housing inventory since the summer and caused home prices to surge. 

A housing shortage has been building for years, said Danielle Hale, realtor.com’s chief economist—especially at more affordable price points. 

But in December the combination of the holiday inventory slowdown and the pandemic buying trend caused it to dip to its lowest level in history,” Ms. Hale said in the report. She forecasted U.S. housing supply would remain low for at least a few more months as a winter surge in Covid-19 cases discourages sellers from entering the market. 

Buyers are facing an acute shortage of homes to choose from in cities like Austin, Texas; Denver; and Providence, Rhode Island. These and other areas like Dallas and Charlotte, North Carolina, had less than half the number of homes for sale as they did in December 2019. 

From the Hill:

Five metro areas with highest 2020 move outs located in NY, NJ: study

The five metro areas with the highest move outs in 2020 were located in New York and New Jersey, according to a study from moving company United Van Lines. 

The Nassau-Suffolk area in New York and the Bergen-Passaic area in New Jersey were the top two areas that experienced the greatest outbound migration, each seeing 81 percent outbound migration, according to the company’s 44th Annual National Migration Study. 

Trenton, N.J., saw 76 percent outbound, while New York City and Newark, N.J., both saw 72 percent outbound migration.

Areas that saw a high level of inbound moves were Wilmington, N.C., and Boise, Idaho, with 79 percent and 75 percent, respectively.

Overall, New Jersey topped the list of outbound locations, experiencing 70 percent in 2020. New York followed with 67 percent. Illinois, Connecticut and California were next on the list, with 67 percent, 63 percent and 59 percent, respectively. 

From the NY Post:

Alarming number of US health care workers are refusing COVID-19 vaccine

U.S. health care workers are first in line to receive the COVID-19 vaccine — but an alarming number across the country are refusing to do so. 

Earlier this week, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine disclosed that about 60 percent of the nursing home workers in his state have so far chosen not to get vaccinated. 

More than half of New York City’s EMS workers have shown skepticism, The Post reported last month. 

And now California and Texas are experiencing a high rate of health care worker refusals, according to reports.

An estimated 50 percent of frontline workers in Riverside County in the Golden State opted against the drug, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing public health officials. 

More than half of the hospital workers at California’s St. Elizabeth Community Hospital that were eligible to receive the vaccine did not, the newspaper. 

And in the Lone Star State, a doctor at Houston Memorial Medical Center told NPR earlier this month that half the nurses in the facility would not get the vaccine, citing political reasons. 

The excuse shared by the Texas nurses was echoed in a recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey that found 29 percent of health workers were “vaccine hesitant,” the Times reported. 

Happy New Year! Remember, the new normal is always better than the old normal.

From Bloomberg:

New Jersey Minimum Wage Increasing to $12/Hour, Faces Criticism

New Jersey’s minimum wage will rise to $12 per hour on Friday even as businesses are struggling to stay open and critics are saying the higher cost will make a pandemic recovery even tougher.

Governor Phil Murphy, though, is standing by the $1 increase, mandated by legislation he signed in 2019, as a positive for employees whose hours may have been cut amid other hardships since March, when New Jersey reported its first Covid-19 case.

“Good news: Beginning tomorrow, New Jersey’s minimum wage will rise to $12 an hour — a boost for our workers, their families and our economy,” Murphy, a first-term Democrat running for re-election in November, wrote in a tweet on Thursday.

New Jersey’s minimum wage will rise to $15 in 2024 from $8.85 in February 2019. Twenty-nine U.S. states have minimum pay above the $7.25 federal rate, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, a Washington-based lobbying group.

…

“A higher minimum wage is great except when your salary goes to zero when the business that you’re working for goes under,” Senator Declan O’Scanlon, a Republican from Little Silver, said by telephone.

The New Jersey Business and Industry Association and the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce were among those opposed to the lack of an emergency delay option. Amid the pandemic they argued that businesses were burdened by mandatory closings earlier this year, personal protective equipment costs and reduced hours and indoor occupancy caps.

From InsiderNJ:

New Jersey Employment Increases in November; Unemployment Rate Increases To 10.2% 

New Jersey private sector employers added to their payrolls in November for the seventh consecutive month while employment in the public sector moved lower. Estimates produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that total nonfarm wage and salary employment in New Jersey increased by 7,100 in November to reach a seasonally adjusted level of 3,896,300. The gains were recorded in the private sector (+9,700) of the state’s economy while employment in the public sector fell by 2,600.

New Jersey has now regained a total of 485,700 jobs in the six months since April, or about 58 percent of the jobs lost due to the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken in response to it. The state’s unemployment rate increased by 2.2 percentage points to 10.2 percent in November, mainly due to New Jersey residents re-entering the labor force seeking employment over the month. See the technical notes at the end of this release for information about the impact of the coronavirus on this month’s employment estimates.

Based on more complete reporting from employers, previously released total nonfarm employment estimates for October were revised higher by 2,300 to show an over-the-month (September – October) decrease of 2,900 jobs. Preliminary estimates had indicated an over-the-month loss of 5,200 jobs. The state’s October unemployment rate was revised lower to 8.0 percent.

In November, employment increases were recorded in six out of nine major private industry sectors. Sectors that recorded job gains include trade, transportation, and utilities (+14,300), education and health services (+2,900), financial activities (+2,100), information, (+900), manufacturing (+600), and professional and business services (+500). Sectors that recorded job losses include leisure and hospitality (-6,400), construction (-3,800), and other services (-1,400). The public sector recorded a decrease of 2,600 over the month, concentrated at the federal level (-2,700).

Way to go Punch and Judy – Doses Administered

Texas – 140k
California – 128k
Florida – 119k
New York – 113k
Illinois – 102k
…
New Jersey – 37k

Nearly a full year in mobility: