The long awaited Closed Sales vs. Inventory graph and dataset for Northern NJ. This data is based on GSMLS Active Inventory and Closed Sales for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union and Warren counties.
(click to enlarge)
The seasonal pattern of sales and inventory are obvious here. Keep in mind that the scale for each series differs.
The data used to generate the above graph can be found in the attached spreadsheet: overlay.xls. Additional data and graphs will be provided as time permits. I’d like to both extend the dataset back until 2000 as well as break out each county individually.
(Update)
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Caveat Emptor!
grim
Interesting how your graph shows the end of the mania at around 8/05 like many of the other bubble bloggers called it.
Be careful about implying anything from that crossover point. But I agree, there was a dramatic shift in the market that began in the August/September timeframe. That shift became clear around October.
jb
From the AP:
Toll Bros. 4Q Profit Down on Soft Market
Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter profit slipped 44 percent due to writedowns of owned and optioned land and cancellations as the housing market continues to soften.
…
The most-recent quarter’s results were hurt by writedowns of $68.7 million, or 42 cents per share, versus writedowns of $1.4 million, or less than a penny per share, last year. Excluding writedowns, fourth-quarter earnings were $1.49 per share in 2006.
…
“This quarter’s results were negatively impacted by our higher than normal 585 cancellations. With these cancellations creating unintended specs, we could face increasing margin pressure as we seek to move these homes,” Chairman and Chief Executive Robert Toll said in a statement.
From Marketwatch:
Toll Brothers says next year’s profit may fall 62%
Toll Brothers, the luxury home builder, said next year fiscal year’s profit may fall 62% but also said it may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week, seem to be dancing on the bottom or slightly above.
As always, the homebuilders are not a proxy for the existing home sales market.
On the economic calendar for the day
A revised look at Q3 productivity – 8:30
Factory Orders – 10:00
ISM Services – 10:00
From Bloomberg:
HSBC Revenue Gains Slow as U.S., U.K. Bad Loans Rise
HSBC Holdings Plc, the world’s third- biggest bank by market value, said revenue growth slowed in the third quarter as bad loans rose in the U.S. and the U.K.
In the U.S., where the bank gets the biggest share of pretax profit, loan delinquencies and impairments increased from the first half of the year due to more bankruptcies and a weaker housing market, London-based HSBC said in a statement today. Trading revenue in the investment bank also declined.
…
“There is little in the statement that will calm fears of a slowdown,” said Colin Morton, who helps manage $1.8 billion, including HSBC stock, at Rensburg Sheppards Plc in Leeds, England. “People were looking for signs of a stabilization in bad debts, and things seem to be worsening.”
Anyone going to the NJAR convention this week?
Clot,
I would love to go.
OK, back to the charts!!! No comments here, no need to offend anybody.
The convention always falls on my son’s birthday, so rah rah sessions and free pens don’t fit in for me.
KL
Clot
You have great writing skills and a good way to get some counter points across.
Could you explain the name??
KL
By the way, what would those actives, on the charts, look like if all those listings did not expire/withdrawn???? Realtors tell me that these numbers are gigantic.
“Toll said on Nov. 7 that orders slid 58 percent in the fiscal fourth quarter as more than one-third of customer contracts were canceled.”
33% of orders cancelled in the quarter!!!
From Marketwatch:
U.S. Q3 unit labor costs revised lower to 2.3%
Inflationary pressures stemming from higher wages are not building as fast as previously thought, Labor Department data released Tuesday show. Unit labor costs – a key measure of inflationary pressures stemming from a tight labor market – were revised much lower in both the second and third quarters, the government said. Instead of rising at a 5.3% pace in the past year, unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector were revised to a much-tamer 2.9% annual pace. Productivity in the nonfarm business sector rose at a 0.2% annual pace in the third quarter, revised from no gain previously reported. Unit labor costs, meanwhile, were revised to a 2.3% annualized from 3.6% previously.
The pain of falling house prices/sales is definitely starting to be felt.
This house in Caldwell was bought in 2003 (mls #1601877) for $370,000 when the taxes were $5,159 and now the owners are trying to sell it for $479,900 (mls #2301064)with taxes of $7,698. It has been on the market for 139 days with an initial asking price of $529,900. I’m sure they can’t even believe that they might not make a profit on this house.
From Reuters/WSJ:
Late payments on subprime loans soar – WSJ
Late payments on subprime loans have surged, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site on Tuesday, and while economists don’t expect major harm, a continued rise could hurt investors in mortgage-backed securities.
Subprime mortgages are loans made to borrowers who are considered to be higher credit risks because of past payment problems, high debt relative to income, or other factors, it said.
…
Subprime mortgage originations climbed to $625 billion in 2005 from $120 billion in 2001, the WSJ said, citing Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.
Based on current performance, 2006 is on track to be one of the worst ever for subprime loans, according to UBS AG, it said. It cited the bank saying that roughly 80,000 subprime borrowers who took out mortgages packaged into securities this year are behind on their payments.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=amQqWx3Ew1pc&refer=news
Toll’s 4th-Quarter Earnings Drop 44% as Orders Tumble (Update3)
By Brian Louis
Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) — Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, said fiscal fourth-quarter profit slid 44 percent as orders tumbled and the company wrote down expenses for land….A total of 585 contracts were canceled in the fourth quarter.
“With these cancellations creating unintended specs, we could face increasing margin pressure as we seek to move these homes,” Robert Toll said in today’s statement.
Homebuilders are using sales incentives such as free televisions to lure buyers. Toll advertised no payments for up to six months on some houses in a community outside of Chicago in the Nov. 4 Chicago Tribune.
From a CALI article…………
Increasingly, Realtors are plying other trades in order to make ends meet. Ms. Berelson’s former coworker, Amber Frey, has returned to massage therapy after a brief stint as a Realtor. “Yep, it just didn’t work out, I mean like, nobody wants to pay the actual price of the houses, so I was like, OK, don’t buy it.” Another coworker of Ms. Frey’s, Brittany Largo, has returned to cocktail waitressing. “Hey, I have payments and insurance on the Lexus” she said. “Luckily, I live with my mom, so I am not wasting money on rent” she added.
Graphs for Morris, Union, and Essex have been added.
jb
Hey Rhymingrealtor (#11):
“Clotpoll” is an Elizabethan English term for a dolt. Just a little self-deprecation…
If you’re going to the convention, give me a shout. I’ll buy you a limoncello shot (unless you’re Booyah Bob or Unrealtor…then you’ll get Rohypnol and a 50-year old hooker on your shoulder).
Priceless John B., just priceless.
jb
Clot,
I wish I would have known, I’d have sent you a shirt to wear..
http://www.cafepress.com/nnjbubble.68233219
jb
LOL
Hahahhahhah! J.B. I was so taken aback(prejudiced, sad to say) by just their names, Amber and Brittany, that I couldn’t even post…then their other careers started to sink in. Been brain sick of Brittany news for years.
I started to ponder, once again, on the reasons why trailer parks often have “ESTATES” in the name.
That article HAS to be fiction.
Sorry didn’t see that you posted the Toll article….
Clot,
In the other thread you mentioned “when centralJ purchases his dream home..”
Will all realtors STOP talking about MY DREAMs?! When did you(RE guys – agents, brokers, inspectors, title companies) all start to care about somebody else’s dreams?
I think it’s time for you to think about your worst-nightmare. the bubble has burst, and hope you can tell that to your folks at the NAR meeting.
Thanks for the county breakdowns, Grim. Any idea why the spread is more dramatic in Morris County?
Anyone going to the NJAR convention this week?
READ MY LIPS YOU STARVING MANIPULATING SELF REGULATED THUGS: NO SPRING REBOUND: SPRING 2007 MASSACRE. LOOKING FORWARD TO YOU THUGS BETTING HUMBLED SOME MORE AFTER ABSUSING BUYERS FOR YEARS.
A bunch a sour puss realtors. No Commish will change one’s attitude really fast.
Anyone that buys a house anywhere near asking deserves the pummeling in losses.
Dummy buyers need to be thrown out on the streets when they go bankrupt.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
No commish checks does wonders for one’s attitude. And this group does not have your best interest in mind.
Starve baby starve! And you know what, not one sympathetic thought for you turds. It’s payback time for years of trashing buyers and taking advantage of those that relied on your BS opinions.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
IT’S PAYBACK TIME.
PLUNGING SALES = STARVING REALTORS ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RANKS HAVE SWEELED OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS. ALOT OF MOUTHS TO FEED WITH FEWER TRANSACTIONS.
MAKE’EM PAY BABY.
BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
How does one know when a house listing ends with a realtor?
When the contract ends how long does a seller have to wait until they can sell without paying the starving broker?
This info could help a few buyers avoid paying the enormous overpriced tour guide + the 25% off 2005 price.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
“I’ll buy you a limoncello shot (unless you’re Booyah Bob or Unrealtor…then you’ll get Rohypnol and a 50-year old hooker on your shoulder).”
I can feel the love. :)
I am not seriously considering buying now, but curious about this FSBO..
http://www.forsalebyowner.com/listing/6BDEA
6 shawn ct
North brunswick, NJ 08902
Would appreciate any help on finding out comparables, recent sales in this area. Do I have a chance if I lowball 20%?
“help a few buyers avoid paying the enormous overpriced tour guide“
Another classic – “overpriced tour guide” – outstanding.
Spoke with a grubber yesterday. The grubber was looking to downsize. Listen to this all the houses he is looking at are extremely overpriced, but their house is still worth 2005 prices cuz the neighbor down the road got it.
It is amazing the denial and greed imbedded. IT’S TIME TO BREAK THEIR FRIGGEN GREED AND ENTITLEMENT ATTITUDE.
” Do I have a chance if I lowball 20%? ”
you think these green eye greedy grubbers are just going to rollover without a fight.Be a friggen man and bid 25% off of 2005 peak prices. WHIO GIVES DAMN WHAT THEY WANT…IT’S NOT 2005 IT’S GOING INTO SPRING 2007 HOUSING MASSACRE.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
I thought “turd” was descriptive…. like the “read my lips” idea, but with a South Park attitude as opposed to Bush Sr.
It takes time to break the greedy attitudes imbedding in home sellers. They are breaking believe me. The few that still feel entitled to 2005 peak prices are GOING TO BE SHOCKED AT WHAT THEY WILL FINALLY TAKE.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
The following is not a joke, but written with true desire for information and informed opinions.
Nice development, good area. Possible seller finds out the neighboring homeowner has an interesting resume when helicopters hover and Mr. Nice with the imported Italian fountain ends up in new accommodations.
Does this reduce the value of homes, or increase it? Should it have a bearing on asking price?
Would Mr. Nice be in a more willing position to accept a lowball, or would a prospective buyer need to steer clear due to possible issues with the property?
To Paps re: the North Brunswick FSBO.
Comps:
10 Shawn – May 02 – 427
14 Shawn – April 02 – 420
11 Shawn – June 02 – 435
12 Shawn – March 03 – 450
9 Shawn – June 03 – 446.5
8 Shawn – Jan 05 – 505
18 Shawn – March 06 – 605
My take is that $610 is too much and that the 2003 sales are better comps, though, good luck convincing the sellers of that.
Also a little concerned about the flight from this neighborhood, seems like a lot of sales on the block and I didn’t even look at all of the homes on that street. I would inquire as to why.
All data from NJ Assoc. of County Tax Boards.
In typical mixed fashion, from the AP:
Productivity slows, factory orders drop
Growth in worker productivity slowed sharply in the summer while wages and benefits rose at a rate that was far below a previous estimate.
Productivity, the key ingredient to rising living standards, edged up at an 0.2 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter. That was better than the zero change that was first reported, but it was below analysts’ expectation for a slightly stronger 0.5 percent increase.
…
Separately, the Commerce Department reported that orders to U.S. factories plunged 4.7 percent in October, the third decline in the past three months, and the biggest drop in more than six years. The manufacturing sector is starting to experience the adverse impact from this year’s slowdown in the overall economy with auto sales and home construction suffering.
Orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, dropped 8.2 percent, a figure originally reported last week as an 8.3 percent decline. The weakness was led by a plunge in demand for commercial aircraft, but orders for a number of other products from autos to computers also fell. Demand for nondurable goods such as gasoline and food, edged down 0.3 percent.
A third report showed that the service sector of the economy, where most Americans work, grew at a quicker pace in November than in the previous month, shaking off some effects of the housing slump.
The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index of activity in service industries rose to 58.9 in November from 57.1 in October. That performance stood in contrast to the institute’s manufacturing gauge which dipped into recession territory last month.
Someone asked me to post this message, and I was happy to oblige. It is a long-shot, but I thought I’d give it a shot.
Is anyone here looking for a kitten/young cat? This person rescued an abandoned kitten a few months ago. It’s been neutered and has all shots. Apparently it is turning into a very fiesty cat with an incredible prey drive. The cat is afraid of nothing and will get along with dogs, etc. The person has mentioned that this cat would make an ideal barn/farm cat or mouser, but not for the ‘inexperienced’ cat owner. The kitten is black and white with unique markings.
Drop me an email at nnjbubble@gmail.com if interested.
jb
Thanks a lot, Seneca.
Seneca Says:
December 5th, 2006 at 10:59 am
BoooooooyaaaaaaaBob Approves this meesage.
Off-topic, I understand that there are 2 primary requirements to obtain a NJ RE License. (1) 75 hour pre-licensure course at a licensed school and (2) pass the exam. License must be applied for through a sponsoring real estate broker.
My questions:
(1) Are there any online courses that would satisfy the pre-licensure course requirement and (2) Assuming one passes the exam, how does one find a sponsoring real estate broker?
Any input is appreciated.
You need to take the course, pass the exam, get fingerprinted, and then get your license through a sponsoring broker.
You need to hang your shingle with a broker.
How do you find a sponsoring broker? Interview until you find one you like.
The trick, however, is to find a company that isn’t going to fee the heck out of you.
What do I mean? Desk fees, phone fees, advertising fees, E&O insurance fees, office fees, stationary fees, etc.
You could be deep into the red in very short order.
Those types of firms don’t particularly care about your aptitude or ability to sell. They are making money on you regardless of whether or not you sell anything.
Other firms are going to require you to do rookie jobs, like sitting around answering phones without getting paid a dime.
jb
Clot or KL could probably expand a bit on the fee and commission structures typically used.
jb
Seneca,
There are no pre-licensure course’s in NJ that you can take on line. And just for as a side note you can take the school test that allows you to go on to the state test after 60 hours. If you pass with a certain percentage, take your state test. As far as the broker , you need to determin your needs – are you interested in becoming a realtor, or do you just want the knowledge to purchase your own home. In that case you might want to go with a reffering agency to keeps your cost minimal.
If you have any questions I can answer for you feel free to email me at rhymingrealtor@yahoo.com
KL
Paps, Have you checked out the schools in north brunswick? They suck!
No wonder everyone’s fleeing.
Question for those who are very familiar with NJ towns (I’m still new to NJ).
I’ve been focusing on Maplewood, and have been told by my realtor that getting a “deal” in Maplewood is difficult as the market there is pretty tight, considering it’s a desirable town and there isn’t a huge excess of inventory.
She said that the deals are more likely to be had in West Orange and Bloomfield where there is an excess of inventory.
We’re talking starter homes in the $340-$370K range.
Does this sound true to your experiences and knowledge?
I’m about done with the pre-licensure course. To tell you the truth, I actually enjoyed taking it. The instructor has really been great.
I’m taking the course through the William Paterson CEDL school. I picked it because it was local and classes were on Saturday mornings. The cost was in-line with the rest, $399 not including the book. However, our class size is pretty small (7 of us), so it’s a pretty intimate dynamic.
I’ll be done with the course mid-January and I should have my license by early March.
No idea what I’m going to do with a license once I get it. I have no intentions of becoming a traditional agent (I really do have a career, honest), but perhaps I might handle lowball offers for friends and family in the upcoming year or two.
jb
Thanks jb and KL. Looking for the “right to access” the data I need to purchase my own home. Not interested in a career. So, I need class time, passed exams, sponsoring agencies and fees up the wazoo so I can access data that should be publically available. Does the MLS have the codes to launch nukes buried in there or am I missing something?
Any advice on where to find an application to be an affiliate member of the GSMLS?
all the essex co. chart shows is that there is more inventory out there right now (i.e., could be all the bubble bursting talk has made more people try to sell and cash out), but the sales seem to be basically in line w/ previous years (on a month to month basis).
“I’ve been focusing on Maplewood, and have been told by my realtor that getting a “deal” in Maplewood is difficult as the market there is pretty tight, considering it’s a desirable town and there isn’t a huge excess of inventory.”
Oh man. I really wish you could talk yourself out of Maplewood. I have a friend there, which is why I started to look there. Let me tell you, there is no “tight” inventory now. When I was looking in ’04, there were, total, 30 houses on the market. There were 140 this summer, about 85 now. It’s a TRENDY area, not desirable – “desireable” (in real estate terms meaning good town with good schools, low crime, etc.) is Millburn, Short Hills and that ilk. Maplewood has terrible schools, borders Newark (crime from the city spills in) and the “diversity” which it prides itself on has caused numerous issues at the high school level (anyone have links to the articles about that?).
They are also the high school that banned Christmas carols, and I just can’t deal with people that take life that seriously. I mean really – who cares? We don’t have better or more important things to do?
You would be better hedging your bets by buying a smaller house in a town that has some historical backing to its “desirability.” When I was looking their, my agent, a friend of the family, just kept saying “I really wish you would look in Livingston, or Millburn.”
BIA,
Essex County Sales:
2005 2006 % Change
353 289 -18.1%
279 283 1.4%
375 342 -8.8%
422 312 -26.1%
476 307 -35.5%
610 521 -14.6%
611 464 -24.1%
657 491 -25.3%
485 341 -29.7%
414 344 -16.9%
412 337 -18.2%
January through November
Seneca,
I’m not sure if GSMLS offers affiliate memberships.
http://forms.gsmls.com/Applications.htm
jb
“Essex County Sales:”
JB,
Thanks for that clarification.
The numbers are available in the spreadsheet that I posted above. I’m going to extend the dataset back to 2000 once I get some free time.
It really helps to understand the seasonal patterns that we typically see, especially with regards to inventory.
I’m sure that in the next two months, many real estate bulls will be pointing to the normal seasonal drop in inventory as evidence that the bottom has been reached.
jb
Grim, am I on the “moderator” list for criticizig unethical realtors, yet someone can freely label me a nazi for criticizing unethical realtors?
“We’re talking starter homes in the $340-$370K range.”
IN that range, look in Bridgewater. Better area, better schools, more value for your money, and great access to highways (287, 78).
What do you mean Un?
jb
I see now, you had comments in moderation. No, there isn’t any kind of moderation list that you are in. I really don’t have any kind of user-level controls turned on.
I’m not sure why those got tagged for moderation. There is a list of a few hundred keywords that will force a comment into moderation. That list I use is based on common blog spam.
The way the keyword match works is by finding any portion of that word within your comment, even if that word exists within another word.
jb
OK, just checking.
I think I’m priced out of Millburn and Livingston.
I don’t know anything about Bridgwater – is that Essex county? Easy access to the city?
Do you need rail or will bus do?
jb
Rail is better, to hoboken ideally.
lina:
i mentioned this to you previously…have you considered nutley? great commute, nice town, good schools, etc. nutley is in essex county and about 12 mi. to the city.
how much are you lookin to spend?
$370K is our max. That is limiting us SEVERLY.
I had mentioned a new listing in Maplewood on one of the other threads (2347222). My realtor had advised that it would sell fast, and likely at a bidding war.
I just got an email from her advising that there were 5 offers made on this house in less than one week, and it’s now in attorney’s review. Given that there were 5 offers, she feels strongly that it is selling for above asking.
This is my ongoing point about my not seeing any bubble bursting. At least not in Maplewood.
It’s amazing what you can learn when you actually read company’s PR on their financials.
Down at the bottom of Toll’s Q4 info they noted that they expected to sell between 6,300 and 7,300 homes (noted in Bloomberg story) at an average price of between $660K and $670K (not noted by Bloomberg [at least in update 6]).
In the third quarter their prediction was for more homes 7,000-8,000, but at a lower average price: $635K to $645K.
My question is, in a softening market, particularly in the Northeast, what makes them think they can raise prices now that they didn’t know three months ago? Or are they just trying to massage the revenue numbers?
Oh, and while I’m on Toll, lets take this bit of contradiction from the first graphs of the Bloomberg story:
Toll Brothers Inc. said the U.S. housing market may have reached bottom as the largest builder of luxury homes reported the biggest drop in quarterly profit in 16 years.
Net income in the three months ended Oct. 31 fell 44 percent … Fiscal 2007 earnings may drop as much as 62 percent,
My question here, if they expect profits to drop more next year why would they call this the bottom?
Does anyone have any clue on what is the fair price for this fairly nice colonial in Westfield (MLS ID:2336673). I am just looking at this stage but the asking price of $2.7M seems ridiculously high. Should an automatic 25% lowball (per BC Bob) get you in the ballpark or could it be even lower. Can anyone help with comps etc back from 2004 time frame etc. Thanks
“Toll Brothers Inc. said the U.S. housing market may have reached bottom as the largest builder of luxury homes reported the biggest drop in quarterly profit in 16 years.”
Lindsey,
In addition to this what about the $175 million in pretax charges for land related writedowns; $115m for the 4th quarter and $60m for 2007. Maybe that is what they are alluding to, they are finished/close to being finished puking out these land options. If the floor was in, why are they walking away from these??? After all, they’re not building land any more.
Jay Sam,
I don’t say an automatic 25% lowball. Mistaken identity.
Hey Mr. annoyed Bob Clone take those rosy colored glasses off. it may work with the few remaining dummies out there shopping with some phoney loan but around here people know the value of something.
So are you going to attend the cry fest in AC?
Send those friggen stooges a message from Boooooooooyaaaaaaa Bob:
NO SPRING REBOUND….NOTTTTHHH”’ING….SPRING 2007 HOUSING MASSACRE COMING TO A HOOD NEAR YOU.
KEEP HOPING AND HOPING….THE HOUSING MASSACRE IS IN PROGRESS. NOOOTTTHHH”’ING YOU OR YOUR BUDDIES CAN DO ABUT IT. NOONE LISTENS TO YUOUR PROAGANDA ANYMORE.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
“Should an automatic 25% lowball..”
25% off of what some delusional pimped up price????
Jay Sam read the NAME!
#69
Lina,
Have you looked at Cedar Grove or Little Falls? Cedar Grove has a few homes listed at $399,000 and Little Falls has quite a few priced under $400,000. Little Falls has a train station and Cedar Grove is right next door.
“In addition to this what about the $175 million in pretax charges for land related writedowns; $115m for the 4th quarter and $60m for 2007. Maybe that is what they are alluding to, they are finished/close to being finished puking out these land options. If the floor was in, why are they walking away from these??? After all, they’re not building land any more.”
ANOTHER REALTOR MYTH PROVEN WRONG….SELLING LAND OPTIONS THEY AIN’T MAKING ANYMORE LAND RIGHTO!
THE PARTY IS OVER REALTORS…WELCOME TO LEAN TIMES…HOPE YOU SAVED A FEW BUCKS, BUT I FORGOT REAL ESTATE IS THE BEST ASSET CLASS ON THIS EARTH….NOT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
Oh fyi….. Recently spoke with that wise wealthy person. He said the real panic in residential housing will begin this spring when the sellers realize the market is NOT improving but getting worse. “It takes time to break a habit.”
Watch for realtor “defection” from seller to buyer.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAA
Bob
Willow-
What are your reasonings for suggesting those areas? Just curious.
The Kid
jb –
The “Rules and Regulations of NEWMLS LLC d/b/a GSMLS” state under section 2.2 Requirements for Participation by Non-realtor individuals that all non-realtor individuals are bound by the Code of Ethics of NAR and NJAR, etc. Section 1.6 defines an affiliate participant as someone in a related specialty business to residential brokerages with respect to which the Service may elect to provide services.
So, lets say I am a RE attorney or have a home staging business or something else of a related nature, I believe I can apply to the GSMLS as an affiliate participant. I just can’t FIND the application for an affiliate participant. Thats what I need.
What can I say… I’m a joiner. I love to participate.
http://forms.gsmls.com/Rules/R&R_2004.pdf
read my lips:
Gluts of Inventory PILING up come January 1.
Been playing the same con-job scheme as in past years….pull off the bloated overpriced house in nov-dec and relist in jan – feb…NOT GOING TO WORK THIS YEAR GRUBBERS….NOOTTTTT”’ING BUT MISERY. BETTER BRING DOWN THE GREEDY EXPECTATIONS.
Watch as the grubbers scramble.
BOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
“$370K is our max. That is limiting us SEVERLY.”
Lina,
If it’s that tight, why buy now???
Have you tried giving them a call?
jb
Oh fyi….. Recently spoke with a dumb poor person. He said the real estate market is not bursting.
Mine seems just as reliable as Bob’s “wise wealthy person”…lol…what a joke…are we really supposed to listen to you at this point?
BOO YAA
jb – I did call and was advised that only (1)someone with a brokers license, (2)someone working as a realtor with a brokers agency or (3) someone who is an appraiser is allowed to access the service. No attorneys are allowed to use the service even if they are RE attorneys and close dozens of transactions a month.
After some back and forth I was given the name of a GSMLS attorney and his number and was advised to discuss with him why attorney’s are not allowed to access the data.
>>Willow-
What are your reasonings for suggesting those areas? Just curious.
The Kid
Denver Housing Foreclosures Worst On Record
DENVER — Denver’s 2006 real estate foreclosure rate is now officially the worst on record.
With one month left in the year, foreclosures have already eclipsed the record set during the 1988 oil industry collapse that sent Colorado’s economy into a tailspin.
Denver’s spiraling market should serve as a warning to the rest of the country, according to experts.
hahahhahahha
Touche Annoyed and starving!
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAA
Bob
Aack! I just wrote a long response to The Kid and it didn’t take. I’ll retype later.
“Gone are the days during what was a five-year period when homesellers could make a big profit by merely putting a house on the market. ‘The days of making exorbitant money on a house are done,’ Huebner said. ‘I think people are having to price their homes more appropriately,’ he said.”
Appropriately = at least 25% of of peak 2005 Zombie prices for houses NOT condoshacks
BRING IT ON.
2007 SRPING HOUSING MASSACRE COMING TO A HOOD NEAR YOU.
BABABABABA
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA
Bob
I think we can all agree everybody here wants a house. Given the “demand” for houses on this blog, how do you think that will affect prices, and does this mean that once prices “stabalize” you will all go into bidding wars with each other?
from housing blog
“Late payments on subprime loans have surged, The Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site on Tuesday, and while economists don’t expect major harm, a continued rise could hurt investors in mortgage-backed securities.”
“Based on current performance, 2006 is on track to be one of the worst ever for subprime loans, the report said. It cited the bank saying that roughly 80,000 subprime borrowers who took out mortgages packaged into securities this year are behind on their payments.”
“HSBC holdings Plc, the world’s third- biggest bank by market value, said third-quarter revenue growth slowed as bad loans rose in the U.S. and the U.K.”
‘People were looking for signs of a stabilization in bad debts, and things seem to be worsening.’”
“The main risks for earnings are ‘further weakness’ in U.S. housing, employment and consumption, the lender said today. A slowdown in mortgage lending will raise delinquencies as a percentage of all loans, HSBC said.”
“‘It’s not a case of pulling in our horns, but we are being cautious on loans,’ said CEO Mike Geoghegan. ‘We won’t go out’ with unprofitable loans, he added.”
“HSBC miscalculated some borrowers’ ability to repay mortgage loans in the U.S., Finance Director Douglas Flint said today. ‘The situation has worsened since we looked at the third- quarter numbers,’ Flint said. There was a ‘weakening trend’ in the fourth quarter, he said.”
Spin annoyed and starved
only a few dummies left to fool. Better take a course on ethics may help.
babababababa
Given the “demand”
What demand in your dream!
Keep the spin up STARVING REALTORS. IT AIN’T WORKING.
SUPPLY IS GOING TO SKYROCKET COME JAN 1. THE SCAMMERS TRYING PAST SCHEMES TO PULL AND RELIST NOONE BUYING IT GRUBBERS.
BLEED’EM DRY.
IT’S PAYBACK TIME FOR YEARS OF TRASHING BUYERS. THE “FEW’ BUYERS LEFT DEMAND LOWER PRICES 25% OFF OF 2005 PEAK PRICES AT LEAST.
Any dummy that pays anywhere near asking has paid for all their future appreciation or losses. Noone to blame but yourself.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAA
Bob
Grubbers Begging for bids. Oh i mean starving realtors.
Keep begging. You Know what has to be done.
PLUNGEEEE!
Booooooooooyaaaa
Bob
Is it not quite obvious that you come to the njrereport.com because you are feeling priced out of your desire to own a house? That is why I came here… Seems to be many others here who are in the same boat. We all want houses. I think once prices stabalize a bit, there will be a frenzy of potential homeowners fighting with each other with bidding wars as they did for the last 5 years thus driving up the prices again. Then it starts with the fear of being priced out.
It’s going to be fun listening to the RAH RAH RAH from the realtor clan after their cheerleading meet.
Spring 2007 Housing Massacre.
Maybe ethics will be promoted by 2008 not just lip service.
Bababbaa
youallwanthouses
Me? When the fun’s over and buying a house is what it should be (boring and principled)?
I’m just gonna walk slowly into the sunset.
http://www.wavsource.com/snds_2006-12-04_49260427847826/movie_stars/eastwood/good_bad_ugly.wav
youallwanthouses Says:
December 5th, 2006 at 2:41 pm
I think we can all agree everybody here wants a house. Given the “demand” for houses on this blog, how do you think that will affect prices, and does this mean that once prices “stabalize” you will all go into bidding wars with each other?
NO bidding war – once it will stabilize we will all put in lowballs with 45% off asking price, and walk away when turned down. Wonder how those home owners will feel than – get about 5-6 offers at 45% off asking price and everyone walked away once they tried to counter???
youallwanthouses Says:
December 5th, 2006 at 2:51 pm
Is it not quite obvious that you come to the njrereport.com because you are feeling priced out of your desire to own a house? That is why I came here… Seems to be many others here who are in the same boat. We all want houses. I think once prices stabalize a bit, there will be a frenzy of potential homeowners fighting with each other with bidding wars as they did for the last 5 years thus driving up the prices again. Then it starts with the fear of being priced out
By the way O have no fear of being priced ut – I am already priced out. I do not consider home at 370K a starter home…… My income is not 120K (unfortunatelly)…
And you will change your name to Iwanttosellmyhomesooobadly….
Given the “demand” for houses on this blog.
…you will all go into bidding wars with each other?
I dont know that lower prices on the way down in itself will cause bidding wars. I think bidding wars in the past few years were a bit of a psychological phenomenon. Fueled by low interest rates and a market frenzy everybody HAD to buy or be priced out FOREVER or so it seemed.
The buyer sentiment is certainly shifting to a bearish stance and we would have to see a shift in that sentiment back towards positive again before bidding wars ensue. Low interest rates aren’t doing it. A perceived healthy economy and unemployment isn’t doing it. I say perceived because depending on who you talk to they (economy and unemployment) aren’t so healthy. just because prices go down i dont think a new bidding war era would start. those days are gone. kinda like mullets.
“We all want houses. I think once prices stabalize a bit,”
I have a house and it doesn’t make anyone a genius or special.
The housing market is like any other market. It IS cyclical. It will come in and out of favor over time. Right now there is a glut of houses coming to the market. The few qualified buyers left should fight and pummel anyone in their way that is NOT getting them the best price.
IF YOU THINK NEWBIE THAT THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN AMERICAN HISTORY ALL ACCOMPLISHED BY AN UNPRECENDENTED EASING (GREESCAM PRINTING PRESS) OF CREDIT AND LENDING STANDARDS IS ANYWHERE NEAR AN END IS NOT WISE TO MARKETS OR PSYCHOLOGICAL MARKET INFLUENCES.
Bleed’em Dry…
Lifestyle and attitude change coming to a realtor near you.
BOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
“Is it not quite obvious that you come to the njrereport.com because you are feeling priced out of your desire to own a house?”
Quite obvious to who??? I liquidated because it was quite obvious to me that we were in the midst of the most over-priced, overbought market in RE in my lifetime.
“Lifestyle and attitude change coming to a Realtor near you.”
can you imagine Realtors taking clients around on tandem bicycles instead of luxury cars? At least they would be a fit bunch.
youallwanthouses,
Bidding wars occur in market manias, greed/fear on the way up. They don’t occur after busts. This market will be so damned spooked when the dust settles that the majority will be afraid to buy.
Spelunker,
I’ll take a ride in that luxury car only if it has a granite dashboard!!!
segments afraid to buy while others wait for a deeper bottom and yet more that just cant afford to upgrade anymore when the paper wealth is gone.
Can’t have this discussion with making some assumptions about the availability of credit in the future.
jb
“I’ll take a ride in that luxury car only if it has a granite dashboard!!!”
could you imagine!? pimp my ride.
Spelunker,
I have a friend who is a realtor that has a mullet. No lie.
jb – do you mean that if the credit availability is greater (loser lending terms and lower rates) you may see a heating up?
Now don’t get me wrong, I think almost everything out there is overpriced. But it still seems from the posts on this site that there is a very high demand to live in the NYC Metropolitan area. My concen is that this pent up demand will explode once prices become more reasonable creating another bubble. I don’t see anyone here saying they never want to buy a house. I think that we can all agree on that, right?
“I have a friend who is a realtor that has a mullet. No lie.”
i always manage to stick my foot in my mouth. its a good thing i have a big mouth.
“I dont know that lower prices on the way down in itself will cause bidding wars.”
The won’t. We put in an offer yesterday. Another offer was received at the same time, for the same price. The seller came back to both of us with a counter, and neither one of us would go up at all. We’re both waiting on the seller. We’ve never even met the other folks with the offer, but happy they aren’t going to get conned into a bidding war.
Also wanted to mention (in response to some other posts) that I think housing is emotional, and unlike other markets in this respect. I believe in the bubble and the downturn it will create, but we’re not talking about a trend or a whim here. There *is* a difference between, say, the dotcom boom, and the housing boom.
The house I just bought had multiple offers on it, we got the house at full price because we were the first contract in. That leads me to believe that if a house is priced right, there will be multiple offers.
youallwanthouses Says:
December 5th, 2006 at 2:51 pm
Is it not quite obvious that you come to the njrereport.com because you are feeling priced out of your desire to own a house? That is why I came here… Seems to be many others here who are in the same boat. We all want houses. I think once prices stabalize a bit, there will be a frenzy of potential homeowners fighting with each other with bidding wars as they did for the last 5 years thus driving up the prices again. Then it starts with the fear of being priced out.
This could be the silliest post I ever read.
Worthwhile read
The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. “It’s official. A record number of real estate foreclosures have been filed in the Denver area this year. In the first 11 months of 2006, public trustees in the seven-county metro area opened 17,782 foreclosures. That’s 3.85 percent higher than the record set in 1988, during the oil industry bust.”
“Experts say other parts of the country that recently had hot real estate markets need only look to Denver to see what’s in store for them.”
“A large percentage of filings are concentrated in the ‘foreclosure belts’ of Adams and Weld counties, north Aurora, and northeastern Denver neighborhoods such as Montbello and Green Valley Ranch.”
“Today’s foreclosure crisis is increasingly taking its toll on homeowners, especially with scams and fraud on the rise. ‘It’s like the wild, wild West out there,’ said Zach Urban, a housing counseling manager for (a) nonprofit.”
“Mark A. Murphy is trying to sell his house in Aurora before the lender takes it back. He has fallen four months behind on his mortgage after losing his job. When he bought his home two years ago, other comparable homes in his neighborhood were selling for $235,000, he said, about $50,000 more than he paid. The home is on the market for $205,000.”
“Ironically, Murphy bought his home out of foreclosure. ‘I believe this property has been in foreclosure four times,’ Murphy said.”
“Urban said he is seeing an increasing number of mortgage-fraud schemes. In some cases, people are offered more than the house is worth in exchange for a ‘gift’ donation. The phony buyer collects the gift and never makes a mortgage payment.”
“In other cases, homeowners who think they are refinancing their mortgage really are signing quitclaim deeds, so the person becomes a renter in their own home.”
“The biggest culprits in the rising mortgage tide are a flat housing market and overbuilding in certain areas, such as north Interstate 25, said Boulder lender Lou Barnes. ‘Our housing market went flat in early 2001, and since then, foreclosures have been rising in the foreclosure belts about 50 percent a year,’ Barnes said.”
“Despite what some think, foreclosures aren’t being driven 100 percent by financing, he said. He noted that the Veterans Administration has been providing zero-down loans for decades, and Federal Housing Administration-insured loans only require a 3 percent down payment.”
“But it’s never been easier to qualify for a loan, so many people who would have been unable to buy a home previously can now buy one, he said. Despite rising foreclosures, Barnes said there has been no move to tighten borrowing requirements because the federal government wants to encourage homeownership.”
“Previously hot markets such as the West Coast, Phoenix and Las Vegas now are softening. Said Barnes: ‘If the national lag in these ‘bubble zones’ is anything like the lag we saw after the technology crash,’ he predicts other cities will see an increase in the foreclosure rate similar to Denver’s.”
“‘I think (the metro area’s record foreclosures) are very significant for the rest of the country,’ he said.”
in response to “youallwanthouses” comment about bidding wars against posters here. I am speaking for myself, and I think most of the posters here would agree, that you already have a budget in your mind how much you would spend on your home. You might go to a higher limit of your budget if you really want the house. But if it bid up over your budget, I would go and find another house because there should be plenty on the market.
Second, I think every serious buyer should already gone through one (if not more) rent vs buy calculator and know their own cost of putting a roof over their head.
It might be true that buyer like me will not wait till the very bottom where it’s more economical to own than rent. To be honest, I don’t think it will reach that point unless there is a recession.
But my question is, at what percentage preimum would you start buying?
I would start buying when the monthly cost of owning is about 10% more than renting. I am sure Pat would disagree with me (from her post a long time ago)
youallwanthouses Says:
December 5th, 2006 at 3:22 pm
The house I just bought had multiple offers on it, we got the house at full price because we were the first contract in. That leads me to believe that if a house is priced right, there will be multiple offers.
Congratulations You are a bagholding fool!
http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3646161
10% might be right… but right now it means over 35% drop in price for my area….. (aftee you plug in taxes). Also 10% more – does it include let’s say 2% upkeep costs on the house/year???
Yep.
NNJeff, I personally wouldn’t pay 10% premiums plus maint./etc. for a house.
But I’m in a good rental, so maybe my perspective is off. I have no pain renting, so I have no desire to pay a premium to own.
I still think equilibrium is important in life…balance. I don’t want to own something that the guy next door is renting out for 10% less.
Renting should be at a premium to ownership, to compensate the owner for the increased risk. Risk/Reward.
Al,
I would include that 2% upkeep in the cost of owning.
I was wondering if other poster might want to voice on their premium to own.
you could put in negative percentage if you want (like Pat does). I think jB mention in one of his way earlier post he would put in slight premium. What would that be?
youallwanthouses – question for you, is the price you paid on your new home (congratulations by the way) at or below the 2005 comps and if below, by how much? If you paid over 2005 comps, by how much?
Your bagholder status is determined by your answers to the questions above.
No bidding war for a friend of mine either. He put in an asking price offer on a house that had been reduced 25% off its original list price.
Desperate seller was selling for $95K less than what he paid for it 18 months ago.
There were 4 other offers. He was told that two of the offers contained a home sale contingency, and the seller would not even consider those. The other two were the same as my friend’s, but he could close the soonest. He said his RE agent said there was huge interest in the house after the price reduction, but he told his agent up front that he would not enter a bidding war. He said the seller did not even counter, just wanted to sell quickly. I was surprised when he made it through attorney review.
Looks like no one else was willing to pay more than asking either.
OT: How long would you wait to hear on an offer? Our offer was submitted by noon yesterday and we haven’t heard anything since we said no to their counter. They never said they weren’t accepting or that they’re counter was best and final. What should we do? Hubby wants to withdraw offer if we don’t hear anything by tonight.
This one is for Booyyyaaa Bob. I particularly enjoyed the last paragraph of the article:
“By December 2007, the cheerleaders’ pom-poms will be bedraggled, and their rahs-rahs dispirited as the ugly specter of class warfare darkens their perpetually rosy view of leverage, debt and financial disparity. 30 million Americans, those in the top 10%, will be cushioned by their 2/3 share of the $50 trillion in total U.S. household assets; 150 million will have no assets, only debts, and the 120 million in between will be watching their share of the pie dwindle as housing values notch ever downward and unemployment notches ever upward.”
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjun06/disparity.html
(hope the link works)
“Desperate seller was selling for $95K less than what he paid for it 18 months ago.”
DG,
I guess that phanthom floor did not apply in this case!!
Pat,
I totally agree with you. If and when I buy, I wanted to buy when cost of renting is more than cost of owning. But at that break-even point, there would be investors/landlords trying to get into the market and compete with you. because over the long-haul (10+ year), real estate appreciate and it always good to have someone pay your mortgage.
I think that 10% premium is what the realtors called pride of ownership (or in my words: money well spent for minimal spousal disagreement) :)
OK.
How does a cash buyer fit into this whole premium thing mix?
I am back, been in hyatis for a while, been busy with christmas stuff. I have to let all my fellow Jerzians know that I may sell my self out and become a Penciltuckian.
I found a nice 3 bed 2.5 bath big rooms with a huge finshed basement townhouse over in Bethlehem PA. I am going to check it out on Sunday. I have had an interesting emailing back and fourth with the realtor. Since I am not to familiar with the prices out there, I asked about the housing boom out that way. I was advised by a realtor that from 2002-2004 in that area there was a 10% apprciation and there after 3-4% per year. That being said I checked public tax record and the lady bought it back in 2004 for 117,000.00.
So the fact is with her calculations it would be worth 130-140k right now. Funny enough they are asking almost 190k for the property. When I sent her my calculation according to her formula she than said well I always advise my cleints to check out what similar listings went for in the passed 6 months.
I am trying to figure out what good that will do me…It will just show me how many people overpaid for places. So once I check out this bad maama Jamma I mayu make an offer. But geez its digustingly cheap there.
2800 per year on property taxes .. 100.00 per month on maintence which cover snow, trash, and outside maintence. As much as I love living in NJ I think I will have to be a sellout and go border hopping. Except unlike most border hoppers I am going to be trying to find a job out that way, I dont wanna commute back to NJ everyday.
Even if I dont get the townhouse I may consider renting 3 bed 2 bath townhouse allows dogs 1700 square feet 1040 per month.
Later all
no housing panic in the stock market
housing stocks rocking.
xhb up strong today.
bottom is in
Homer,
“I am going to be trying to find a job out that way, I dont wanna commute back to NJ everyday.”
I would hope so after all the grief you gave to those that commute into “The City”.
Best of luck, Rich
pesche22,
Why are you constantly comparing Wall Street to the homeowner??? Wall Street slammed these stocks well over a year ago. The homeowner is just starting to get it. Tell the seller in post #127 that xhb was up today. What effect does this have on the I/O’s/flippers???
Homer,
Good Luck!! Remember if you decide to work in Jersey, the new tolls, that you suggested, will be in effect.
Pat,
does a cash offer or an approved-mortgage offer make a difference to the seller?
It seem like a contigent offer and a non-contigent offer make a difference to a seller (from earlier post today).
I think the realtors on board can shed some light on this
“Willow-
What are your reasonings for suggesting those areas? Just curious.
The Kid”
Both Cedar Grove and Little Falls are close to train stations that go to Hoboken yet you aren’t paying Montclair prices.
Cedar Grove has a single town school district which is small (they tried to consolidate with Verona but that didn’t fly). There are quite a few cape cod starter houses and it’s close enough to highways and Montclair State.
Little Falls is in Passaic County with lower taxes than Essex. They have Passaic Valley High School that serves Little Falls, Totowa and West Paterson. It has a main street with shops yet major supermarkets are quite close.
Willow-
Thanks. The Kid is still in the window shopping stage, and love to get as much feedback on towns with access into the city.
“Homer Simpson Says” #134
Please research the area before making any move to Bethlehem because of the school system. A family from my town in Essex County moved there two years ago and after putting their oldest daughter in the public middle school, they had to move her to private school. They just aren’t very good. If you are serious about moving to PA, the Salisbury school district is very good (I have relatives who live in that district). It is farther from the border than Bethlehem but would be worth it if you were to find a job there.
Check out http://www.lvarmls.com/ and search by school district. Salisbury covers a few towns like Allentown.
youallwanthouses Says:
Is it not quite obvious that you come to the njrereport.com because you are feeling priced out of your desire to own a house? That is why I came here…
youallwanthouses Says:
The house I just bought had multiple offers on it, we got the house at full price because we were the first contract in.
These seem oddly contradictory.
Willow,
I have been looking in Little Falls and a lot of the homes below 400 are in flood zone. Went to see one and realtor told me that the water only made it up half way up in the basement. Last weekend went to go see one in non flood area. They removeed the lower kitchen cabinets only brought new ones and stopped. No counters or sink.$399900.
pesche22
Some people felt the bottom was in on Lucent Tech in the beginning of 2004. Check out the chart… I could layer TOL on top of it for a nice match.
I am not saying Lucent is a direct comp to TOL (although would anyone really be surprised if one of the public builders was caught cooking the books). I just don’t think TOL is back at 40 by year-end.
xhb also includes :
Sherwin williams
lowes
home depot
mohawk
leggett & platt
I guess they are all going down the tubes
money is made when blood is in the street
and the same can hold true for anyone searching
for homeownership.
Read the charts and buy wisely.
and anyone who knew anything about lucent
knew it was overpriced and got out
a long time before it tanked.
no compare between telecom and housing.
wrong compare.
try a basic material play
Cedar Grove has an excellent, small school district. Low taxes, too, but higher prices. Hard to find anything below $400k. We liked a small fixer-upper for $389k. Not sure about Little Falls — it’s in a flood area and not every area in town is very nice.
In PA, Bethlehem is a city and has city problems, but I wouldn’t dismiss the area or the schools — they’ve done some surperb urban renewal there. The schools in Lehigh and Northampton counties are a good bet overall, though. Parkland School District (west side Allentown) is considered the best the in area. I think Allentown schools and Allentown proper are sore spots, though. High crime downtown, struggling schools, etc. Upper Saucon Township is on a development spree, but the schools there (Southern Lehigh) are very good too and the area is beautiful. PA is similar to NJ in that most suburban schools are very good. (My parents were born and raised there, and live there now.)
“does a cash offer or an approved-mortgage offer make a difference to the seller?”
It does if the seller has the choice. They want close to go as smoothly as possible.
“money is made when blood is in the street
and the same can hold true for anyone searching
for homeownership.”
Pesche,
When the retracement exceeds 2/3 of the down move, then get excited. Until then just a simple retracement, standard market action. We are not even close to blood on the local streets. Hell most homeowners still think that they deserve 2005 prices. The bleeding has not begun with the homeowner.
Just wanted to add to my post about Bethlehem… I’d never invest in a townhome there. There is too much construction there. You can still find new houses for $225k+ or so, why settle for a townhome in Bethlehem?
Also, if you’re a commuter, Bethlehem is about 90 minutes from Newark and 100 minutes from NYC on a weekend.
Lina, a very late response to the question in post #50:
It could be too far south, but you might consider Aberdeen (Matawan), Hazlet, Holmdel, and Middletown.
About an hour (to an hour/15 each way with a transfer in Secaucus.
#91, #95, #113, #116
Fairly obvious troll, but I’ll answer just the same:
Waiting out an obvious downturn in the market is just smart, whether you have a little or a lot.
If somebody wants to buy now, that’s fine, but hopefully they’ll make an informed decision, and buy with their eyes open with confidence in their risk assessment (and tolerance).
Does anyone here have experience purchasing a foreclosed property. I recently got my 101 on foreclosure from RealtyTrac (free trial).
Most of the houses I see in pre-foreclosure owe the bank a lot more than comps. For eg., in the neighborhood I’m interested in, I see the owners own the bank $696k, and comparative houses are selling for $560 to 600k!
I am not sure how foreclosures can ever be a good deal if they own the bank so much more?! Am I missing something?
What do the experts on this board think will happen next year with a ton of ARMs reset? – especially houses which owe a lot more to the bank (than comps)?
does a cash offer or an approved-mortgage offer make a difference to the seller?
no
It seem like a contigent offer and a non-contigent offer make a difference to a seller (from earlier post today).
yes
It is all cash at the closing table. A good mortage co can close in 30 days – btwn inspections, attorney reviews, title searches and surveys, cash does’nt close sooner.
And a contingincy… well your out there waiting now for a long time.
KL
close bold please
ust wanted to add to my post about Bethlehem… I’d never invest in a townhome there.
Thats why I have done my research. I know what to pay and how much similar townhouses have gone for over the past few years. Yes everyone likes to make money on place, my only concern is if I go to sell it in 5-10 years that I can get my money back.
I do plan on finding a job in PA I can’t stand long commutes. Yes its a commuter haven over that way, but I’d rather commute within the state. And have little to no commute. I know there are not jobs comming out of the wazoo over there but if I have to take a bit of a pay cut to avoid driving over an hour to get here than to me its worth it. And who knows maybe in 5-7 year NJ will become afforadable again…And maybe Pigs will fly.
On one other note, I was reading the article about 20% property tax reduction for people who make up 100k in NJ. They said that will take care of about 70% of the residents in NJ. So with most houses being over 300k that means we are relying on nearly 30% of the states population to buy these homes. And theres a 40% increase in 60days past due on mortages. Hmmmmm so why wont you people go get a fancy mortage and buy a 400,000.00 3 bed 1 bath cape cod that the taxes are 7500/year??? Come on you make 70k/year that should be 3/4 of your monthly salary to cover mortage and taxes. And with that 20% releif well hell you can go up to 500k now.
I figure if I go border hopping now maybe in 5-7 years prices in this state should be low enough where the 70% that make under 100k a year can actaully afford to buy a place here, and may I will come back…But it maybe to late, I may drive a tractor and have on overalls and a piece of hay and say how ya’ll doing….LOL yeah right
My thoughts on the coming spring…
Some optimists think that in the spring the market will behave like it has in the past where sales will increase and prices as well. While I think generally this to be true, look at the NNJ graph… Sales typically bottom out in Feb reflecting, end of year contracts that finally closed. Sales have yet to bottom out for this cycle, which in February should probably set a new recent low. Inventories also appear to bottom out around December, which is right around now. So as the spring rolls around, inventories should increase from this heightened slightly lower level and sales should increase from new lower levels.
Speculators are leaving the market and they contributed about 25% of 2004 & 2005 sales. The smart ones sold as quickly as possible. The not so smart ones are cutting slowly hoping to extract as much as they can, but are riding the wave down. After seeing that graph I think Booyah Bob is right, spring 2007 could be rather ugly. Inventory will be at higher highs and sales will be higher but from recent lows. My guess is since sales will not include many speculators and increased momentum of people holding back waiting for prices to decline will lead to more price drops. This is of course in my opinion.
I have been turned down again! but this one was different. We originally saw listed with one agency for 450,000 He liked but thought to high to bid on . Expires, comes back again for $405,000 We take a second look. This time the house is full of realtor cards ( its vacant ) and I believe it is going to go fast for close to new asking . He does’nt think so waits 5-6 days puts in a offer for 370,000 – Lost to higher offer.
While not the same client ( I have 2 active lowball clients) I have not been succesfull.
This is anecdotal, but I have’nt got any “number guys” to elaborate further on matts post regarding lowball relations to overall market.
I lost my anecdotal post about lower list prices coming in. Could it possibly have been flagged?
KL
Pesche22,
In some ways telecom does compare to homebuilding…
Back in the tech heyday telecoms were installing unlit “dark” fiber for demand that never materialized.
In the current homebuilding boom, homebuilders are building “unlit/dark” homes for buyers that never materialized.
Their has yet to be blood on the streets until some mortgage co’s and homebuilders go belly up.
“My concen is that this pent up demand will explode once prices become more reasonable creating another bubble. I don’t see anyone here saying they never want to buy a house. I think that we can all agree on that, right?”
I don’t think there is a pent up demand. Like Grim has pointed out, the bubble has borrowed buyers from the future. Also, with the way this job market is looking, doesn’t look too good either.
SAS
i.e..
bad job market = very….very bad housing market.
SAS
RE: Buyer pride-premium.
NNJeff asked how much buyers were willing to pay “extra” over comp. rental to buy. I asked NNJeff (or anyone)about a cash buyer, and if the cash buyer would have a different perspective about paying a premium to own, versus renting.
Seems like people answered from a seller’s view.
Anybody else have any thoughts? Let’s say you have 600k. Are you willing to lay it on the line, cash, to own a house? The exact house, same development, next door, is being rented out for ten percent less (than if you had put 20% down/30yr fixed.) Does it change your willingness to pay a ten percent premium, and if so, why?
HardPlace, also the financing must be considered in any telecom example. Outrageous financing to lay massive amounts of cable. Small, aggressive outfits high on the internet that had no business getting the funds they were given.
Not that the demand wasn’t there – it was the right investment at the wrong time, handled without the big pockets to weather what came next.
Lina,
The toll brothers forecast likely reflects a shift in product mix which can change the average price. It’s possible that the lower end homes they sell are seeing more pressure than the higher end price points thus pushing the average price up.
Just a thought.
Sorry Lina, I meant to respond to Lindsey’s post #71.
lina –
#55 summed it up nicely.
why not wait and accumulate a bit more to enable you to get into a better town and house?
drive through maplewood at night. — I lived in millburn for almost 10 years – I am familiar with the surrounding towns. Please be really cautious (esp if kids are involved) about choosing neighborhoods and schools.
as someone who’s still looking — you are better off waiting and spending wisely than buying and regretting.
Remember too: if you’ve bought and you despise the place/price/schools/commute/crime — you may not be able to sell it anytime soon.
Cedar Grove has an excellent, small school district. Low taxes, too, but higher prices. Hard to find anything below $400k. We liked a small fixer-upper for $389k
Anybody else seeing anything wrong with this statement??? Fixer Upper for 389K my a$$. Go to TE, CO, AZ, NM, even Northern CA, any place in west/midwest and 389K still nets you a freaking Mansion…..
Wasn’t the idea of getting that highly paid job in NY was to live better??? Guess what?! You are actually living worse that people who makes 1/4 of what you are making in ther states!!!!!
Ohh wait now you will be also donating to all people in NJ who owns a home and makes under 100K family (majority) and all renters who makes under 50K. Welcome to NJ!!!
…….
Look at the kind of junk you get for half the price in San Antonio:
http://www.drhorton.com/corp/GetPlanRendering.do?dv=C3&pr=43318&pl=1151745
If you can keep your cost down in NJ and save a large nest-egg, I think it would be a pretty easy transition to make, regardless of the pay cut you would take.
jb
“Anybody else have any thoughts? Let’s say you have 600k. Are you willing to lay it on the line, cash, to own a house?”
Not at this time.
Seneca Says:
question for you, is the price you paid on your new home (congratulations by the way) at or below the 2005 comps and if below, by how much? If you paid over 2005 comps, by how much?
Your bagholder status is determined by your answers to the questions above.
Similar style and condition house across the street sold for over $100k more last year. I have been following the market for a very long time, and I knew that this house was priced right from the get go..thus the multiple offers the 2nd day on the market. There are not many houses priced correctly in Bergen County, but the ones that are move quickly. Will the house be worth less within the next few years? Yes. It most likely will. But for the time being, it is priced correctly for this year and next year.
#119
Good point. Eveyone has a certain price they will pay and I would buy when I consider a price reasonable to my cost of renting. The preimum we pay will dependend on our income and real-estate out look.
I woudln’t recommend buying because you think you will get priced out. This is the kind of irrational thinking that gets you in financial trouble.
youallwanthouses:
Speak for yourself. You bought and that’s your choice. Nothing wrong with that, it’s your money and you can choose to spend it how you want.
Don’t expect every reader on this board to jump into a bidding war to re-inflate the bubble. Most of that crowd is on the kannect site.
lina:
I have notieced that the price correction is happening from the top. I have been watching the market in some towns in Union/Essex county. I noticed that many homes priced in the 1.2 million a year ago are now going into contract in the 950K range. Good homes in the 500K to 700K are going into contract. It will be months before you start to see corrections in the 300~500K price range.
So if you have to buy now, you must be willing to pay the current market price. The only option is to take a chance and hold of for another year.
You may want to expand your search outside Maplewood. The commute is good from maplewood/south orange, but the school system is not even in the top 75 schools according to the NJ monthly magazine. On top of that you pay crazy amount of property taxes.
youallwanthouses: Its not priced correctly for next year, prices will be even lower next year.
Even the more honset realtors out there will tell you, that they have absolutely no belief in the idea, that the Spring 07 market will be better, they expect the price declines to be much more severe, as the serious sellers finally realize that the market has indeed change.
Al, calm down. I didn’t say it was right. I just said that it was hard to find a house under $400k in Cedar Grove, and we liked one that we did find for $389k. We didn’t buy it — it was still overpriced.
Also, before you compare NJ to places in Texas, Northern California, AZ, NM, CO, etc. just because those other places are cheaper, you need to acknowledge there are some educational, cultural, wage, and often political benefits to living here for many. For example, I wouldn’t send my kids to public schools in AZ, the air and traffic are terrible, and the state is extremely conservative and religious. So what if I could afford a mansion there? I wouldn’t want to live there. So yes, NJ housing prices suck. Taxes suck. Cost of living sucks. But my family and career are here, and there are fewer places I’d rather live.
youallwanthouses – if you are buying in to a $450 house (vs. $550 a year ago) then I personally wouldn’t call you a bagholder. If the comp home went for $600k or more last year, you may still be holding the bag. Hopefully its the former. Its good that you acknowledge you might lose some value in the home over the next year or two, hopefully not too much.
Personally, I am not looking or waiting for the absolute bottom but I will only pay a fair price with historically normalized gains year over year for the seller. Where I am looking, all the interesting homes are still asking for a good 10-25% over 2005 peak prices. They have been asking for those prices since February when I started looking in earnest.
The only places selling are those in the $320-$399 range and they typically take 10% off asking.
Also, before you compare NJ to places in Texas, Northern California, AZ, NM, CO, etc. just because those other places are cheaper, you need to acknowledge there are some educational, cultural, wage, and often political benefits to living here for many.
Political – you mean all corrupt NJ polititians???
Ohh ya and the unions… I guess it is good for union members, but they need new people to come and work so the older will retire VERY comfortably and younger generation will pay for it???
Cultural??? in NJ??? you mean NJ is close to NY right???
Have you ever been to Denver, Phoenix, Austin, And Northern California??
those cities actually are cities. They have decent museums, operas, theaters, great schools!!! With Crime rate in NJ schools I can not believe they are considered one of the best in the country – may be if you are living in million dollar+ neighbourhood but “average” person can not!!!
Wages – well 20% higher wages are well off-set with Higher costs for everything…
But my family and career are here, and there are fewer places I’d rather live.
So I guess this is the true reason – besides if you like NY city very much.
New Paradigm: NJ is teh Place for New Jersians??? And people from the outside really have no benefits in moving here unless they are working on Wall Street???
Seneca said: The only places selling are those in the $320-$399 range and they typically take 10% off asking.
Yes! My house $359,000
last year, similar house across the street asking $480,000 (sold for $459,000)
I would say $359,000 for a house that does not need any work is a pretty good thing…especially in “Prestigious Bergen County”
youallwanthouses,
Congrats and all the best wishes on the new home.
Do you care to share the town you bought in?
Al,
Yes, political. I’m not moving to a red state.
Yes, cultural. Yes, NJ is close to NY.
I’ve lived in Phoenix (12 years), Oakland (4 years), Atlanta (not on your list, but same paradigm — 3 years). I’ve traveled extensively to both Texas and Colorado in business and for pleasure. The public schools are not good, not even close to basic NJ standards. The crime rate is much higher in Phoenix, Oakland, Atlanta, and many cities in Texas (though I’m not sure about Denver or NM, which you also mentioned).
Yes, wages. Yes, career. I’m in publishing. I’m unable to do that outside of the NY metro area(or maybe Boston).
I’m frustrated by the corruption, cost of housing, crime-ridden cities, taxes, etc., etc., etc., But living here isn’t without its benefits. And yes, when it comes down to it, my family is close by. These intangibles mean something. That’s all I’m trying to say.
youallwanthouses – that’s great news. it is people like you who will help the neighbors who want to sell realize they just can’t get those 2005 prices anymore. I hope what you will realize is that many of us who are looking to buy have not been fortunate enough to find reasonable sellers like you found. Once we do, we will also contribute to the decline in home prices in this area. I really don’t think you are going to see bidding wars on 99% of homes that sell over the next few years. There will certainly be some sellers who have a very low asking price in the hopes that the home gets bid up to something more. Still, my guess is that most of us who eventually buy in the next few years will do so after strenuous negotiations as we get sellers to drop their prices.
Best wishes to you in your new home.
regarding to post 182. … It does seems to me that you are admitting that NJ is either place for New Jersians with a lot of history here, or people who can get very good job in NY…
Unfortunatelly that is my impression as well…
As far as Religion/concervative people – you know I like peope in the west a lot better that NJ people… In average people in NJ are ruder, constantly irritated by traffic/crowds everwehere and being democratic/liberal for ome reason creates more corruption that in so called RED states….
One fo the problems with this blog is that people here routinelly talk about buying 600K+ homes, buying 400K starter homes and so on…. I guess I just do not belong here??? I see NJ from Poor (75K for Family of two) People perspective.
I know that if i want to buy a house it will be in 200k-300k neighbourhoods… Horrible crime rates right now, not so hot schools.
And 75K it is just about average household income in NJ… So if you are not “Rich” – making 150K+ or own a home which you have bought before 2000, you are forced into not so good areas with not so good schools, high crime rates, horrible traffic and you do not make enough money to enjoy NY city….
I am sorry but NJ does not have nice cities… NNJ – Central NJ is one big surburbian neighbourhood of NY. I do not see cultural advantages in shopping malls and plants/warehouses surrounding me.
I agree that NJ doesn’t have nice cities. I agree that folks in NJ aren’t always the most polite (or cultured or educated). There are tons of problems. What I’m saying is that no place is perfect, and if you have roots here, there are benefits to being here, just as there are benefits to being anywhere else.
My point — there are as many reasons to complain, about say Phoenix, as there are reasons to complain about NJ. Just because you can afford a bigger house there doesn’t mean everything.
My point — there are as many reasons to complain, about say Phoenix, as there are reasons to complain about NJ. Just because you can afford a bigger house there doesn’t mean everything.
rephrase you last sentence to Just because you CAN afford a house there and it will become a huge difference.
I simply can not afford ANY housing in NJ unless I am ready to live on 1@9 or in the area where I have a good chance of being shot.
I am not saying any other area is without it’s problem. al I am saying is that for my Family (with average NJ Income) it is impossible to live in NJ.
I don’t disagree with that statement. Housing is ridiculous and a struggle for those who make good incomes. I’m with you.
This blog is great!