Weekend Open Discussion

Weekend Topic: New York City vs. New Jersey

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

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399 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. BC Bob says:

    Oh my, say it ain’t so, Jim. Just dismiss it, Goldman’s just building a case for their [Goldman’s] next rate cut.

    “Goldman Sachs has abandoned its ultra-bullish view of the world economy, warning of a likely recession in Japan and mounting risks that US property slump could spread to parts of Europe.”

    “It is an abrupt change of tack for the bank known as the “cheer leader” of the global boom.” [Edit] Please give Larry Crudelow some credit for his goteam chant.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/28/cngold128.xml

  2. grim says:

    Personal income, spending, savings rate due out at 8:30.

  3. BC Bob says:

    From the same article;

    “Such a widespread housing boom has little precedent in modern history. In those markets where prices have run up the most, and rental yields have fallen dramatically, the risks of a housing correction are likely to have increased materially,” said the note, by Peter Berezin.

    “The wealth effect for housing is about twice as large as for equities, with consumption falling by about two cents in the short run for every $1 decline in home prices,” he said.

    He expects US house prices to drop 7pc in 2007 and another 7pc in 2008, as mortgage lenders shut off credit to chunks of the market. “The US is often a leading indicator for what happens in the rest of the world”.

  4. Mitchell says:

    Charlotte NC area still going strong. Pretty much suspect its that other areas are having trouble selling in order to get here.

    We see a house sales and then homes are rented out until the owners can sell their homes in wherever they are.

  5. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Is It Really a Bad Time To Buy a House?

    Is now a bad time to buy a house?

    CNBC’s Jim Cramer’s recent comments on the “Today Show” have reignited the debate over whether home prices have hit bottom or will continue falling.

    “Don’t you dare buy a home now, you will lose money,” Cramer declared on the NBC morning show.

    The comments sparked criticism from some members of the National Association of Realtors, who called his remarks “misleading, inaccurate, and inappropriate.”

    Eugenio Aleman, a senior economist for Wells Fargo, said he expects prices to continue falling because higher mortgage rates will discourage buyers.

    “It seems to have confused investors and individuals that home prices are going up always, but that is not the case,” Aleman said.

  6. grim says:

    Charlotte NC area still going strong. Pretty much suspect its that other areas are having trouble selling in order to get here.

    It’s always different here

  7. HEHEHE says:

    “misleading, inaccurate, and inappropriate.”

    Well the NAR would be experts on all three.

  8. Mitchell says:

    I love that. How can house prices remain high with interest rates going higher?

    If interest rates go up then people cant afford to buy as much house plain and simple. So interest rates go up and the house prices go down unless you in an undevalued area which doesnt exist in NJ any more.

    Realtors are salesman/saleswomen. There are good ones and shady deceptive ones.

    At least loan agencies look like they are starting to clean up their approve everyone act of go chap 11.

    Realtors wont care because thier commision is off the top maybe if it were over the course of the loan they would put the right person with the right house.

  9. CAIBC says:

    i know one of the criteria for actual price drops was the media putting all the bad news on their front pages…ok, we now have that with major news papers talking about the RE crisis…when do you think the sellers will start slashing prices?
    within the next few months or early next year?

  10. skep-tic says:

    re: Charlotte

    I have a friend down there from law school who is making the same money as me, but it is like he is making at least double due to the difference in the cost of living.

    He is renting a 1BR apartment in a doorman building downtown (not everyone lives in mcmansions down there). The place is walking distance to his office, has a pool, a garage and 2 gyms. His rent is $900 per month.

    Even in the suburbs there is more variety than some think. Yes, there are a lot of mcmansions (most of the area was built in the last 15 yrs), but there are some very classy older neighborhoods. For example, Myers Park is filled with beautiful prewar homes and is about a 15 minute drive to downtown (not on the highway).

    Obviously, there are advantages and disadvantages to every place there is. But people who portray Charlotte as some backwoods place filled with people with second rate jobs are not informed.

  11. bi says:

    when mortgage rate went up 0.16% yesterday, some folks here were so excited that they even think that more fed rate cut means higher mortgage rate. It is wrong. First, it costs only $40 more per month for an average mortage for 0.16%. Second, you don’t understand market dynamics if you just copy from your mba textbook or from articles from MSM talk head. The market dynamic is as follows: bond yield down, stock down, more bad news, forcing fed cut;
    sell on news casuing yield up, stock rally, mortgage demand up causing rate up… this is what was happening in last two months. I call it first cycle. now we are at the stage of second cycle: 10 year treasury going down to 4.0%; stock softening; force fed to cut second time. this cycle will continue to the end of the year to bring down 30 year mortage under 6%

  12. grim says:

    And that, my friends, is the Rube Goldberg school of Economics.

  13. Mitchell says:

    10. I think that depends on everyones financial position. I think 2-3 months out from when the payments on everyones mortgage rise upward and the overextenders get hit with the increases thier get rish quick plan didnt plan for.

    Sadly I hate to see anyone lose thier home its a very mental blow for the family. I fugure by X-mas or shortly after the numbers will start increasing quickly. Which is also right around the time of most layoffs.

  14. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Grim – since many here respect your opinion, care to take a whack at Cramer’s comments on the Today show?

  15. grim says:

    Grim – since many here respect your opinion, care to take a whack at Cramer’s comments on the Today show?

    You would do well to ignore him, regardless of the topic.

  16. BC Bob says:

    “Second, you don’t understand market dynamics if you just copy from your mba textbook”

    Bi [12],

    Can we go a Friday without market calls/dynamics from a guru like you? Poor JB has to ward off the SEC. Pretty soon you will be spewing that the US Dollar is strong because it’s backed by John Q.

  17. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Aug. consumer spending up 0.6%, most in two years
    U.S. Aug. core consumer price inflation up 0.1%
    U.S. core inflation up 1.8% in past year, lowest in 3 years
    U.S. Aug. incomes up 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected
    U.S. Aug. savings rate falls to 0.7% vs. 0.9%

  18. skep-tic says:

    further rate cuts may or may not be coming, but the damage to the economy is already done. there is a massive misallocation of resources that needs to be unwound. except for the central banks, nobody wants to lend more money into this sector. the central banks cannot singlehandedly turn the tide. it is only going to get better once people take their losses and move on. at that point, people will be able to make sensible investments again. right now it is like throwing money into a black hole because no one is admitting the extent of the damage.

  19. bi says:

    10#, price reduction is everywhere. in my area you can see many reduced 10% from OLP. but when i compared sale number with recent assessed tax number, i found they were very close.

  20. BC Bob says:

    Families will be getting together to eat the bird soon. Do you think the topic of convesation will be why I am quiting my full time job to be a RE flipper?

  21. Richie says:

    Let’s put it this way, the only people Cramer offended was the NAR.

    Were his comments really that bad? He states his opinion as does everyone else in this wonderful country.

    When has the NAR ever said that it’s a bad time to by a house?

    When has a cheerleader ever stopped cheering for her team?

    ’nuff said.

    …although, cheerleaders are MUCH more visually appealing then most NAR members.

  22. CAIBC says:

    10%??? bi, its going to take a lot more than that for these homes to be affordable to first time home buyers…is that all we are expecting 10% off these inflated OLPs??/ i sure hope not..

  23. gary says:

    Cramer: “The NAR is like Pravda.” Man, that’s beautiful.

  24. grim says:

    Anyone think I can get my hands on one of those Foxtons Mini Coopers cheap?

  25. Clotpoll says:

    BC (from #228 yesterday)-

    “Clot,

    Are you monitoring additional storm activity?

    “Foxtons, the one-time 800-pound gorilla of the 2 percent marketplace in the New York metropolitan area, said it may file for bankruptcy and close its business, explaining it “can’t stand in the way of a hurricane”

    Cat 5, eye stalled over NJ. Loads of agents have their own homes on the market. All I do now is talk to owners who need to sell short, which is good, since short sale/REO are the only do-able transactions right now. It’s also easier to haggle with a bank that’s facing a total loss than tell dopey Fred & Ethel that six feet of granite countertop in their kitchen that smells like a fart doesn’t justify a $50,000 premium to the market.

  26. gary says:

    grim,

    Probably not. A lot of realtors will be needing those cars to live in.

  27. twice shy says:

    Anyone think the demise of Foxton’s will cause average commission rates to creep back up from 5% to 6% in our area? I think they do deserve credit for bringing commissions to 5%. Now that they’re gone, I wonder if the former standard 6% will become the norm again.

  28. Mike NJ says:

    I am pro NC but I still think this downturn in RE will spread even to NC. Look at the latest chart I did for one of my friend’s houses down there. The dip started last month and seems to be fairly evident. This is a home in a beautiful community 30-45 minutes of our Charlotte. I still think NC will see nowhere near the depreciation that we will here in NJ but it will be tough to escape this RE mess.

    http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=1year&zpid=51465036

  29. gary says:

    Fred & Ethel: LOL!!!

  30. RentinginNJ says:

    Charlotte NC area still going strong. Pretty much suspect its that other areas are having trouble selling in order to get here.

    Charlotte is largely fueled by people relocating from the NY metro area. I’ve heard Realtors® (in local papers) there complaining that they are getting lots of lookers, but its getting harder to close deals as people from the NY metro area are having trouble selling their homes in order to move.

  31. grim says:

    Anyone think the demise of Foxton’s will cause average commission rates to creep back up from 5% to 6% in our area?

    Otteau touched on that in the Star Ledger piece below.

    Jeffery Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick real estate appraisal and research firm, said Foxtons will leave a lasting imprint on the real estate industry as a whole. When Foxtons ratcheted down commissions, “the rest of the full service companies needed to adjust their structure downward as well,” Otteau said.

    “Generally speaking, commissions don’t go back up,” he said. “Once consumers get the taste, they are unwilling to let go of it.”

  32. Clotpoll says:

    grim (13)-

    That’s an insult to Rube Goldberg.

  33. BC Bob says:

    Clot[26],

    “Fred, Ethel and a fart”

    Bernanke, Paulson and a dollar.

  34. Clotpoll says:

    2x (28)-

    Commission rates are dictated more by market conditions than the actions of any single company. Keep in mind that Foxtons- in its heyday- never had more than a 1% market share in NJ. Their listings were also concentrated in areas where sellers were much less financially-sophisticated, which further muted the effect of their practices. One of the biggest reasons they failed is that their business model- predicated upon offsetting low fees with volume- never took hold in affluent areas.

    Long story short, they ran out of idiots.

  35. Mitchell says:

    #11. Your right when we first looked and saw the prices we figured they were in bad neighborhoods or something or that all the neighbors would be hillbilly’s but as we all call it. Charlotte is South New York as most of the people are former New Yorkers.

    If NJ didnt get so messed up would still be living in the north but what are you gonna do NJ real estate craziness made things easy for us down here.

  36. BC Bob says:

    I should be at the Today show listening to THE BOSS.

  37. Clotpoll says:

    BC (34)-

    Greenspan, bathtub, dog track.

  38. John says:

    Housing is sinking!!!

    Saw a house today with “Burma Shave” type For Sale signs!!!!!!!!!

  39. scribe says:

    Clot,

    You said:

    All I do now is talk to owners who need to sell short ..

    How do people come to that conclusion? Is it a slow process where their houses have been on the market for a while and they haven’t been able to sell at an amount that would cover their mortgage, or is it an abrupt realization that they can’t possibly make the payments when their mortgages reset?

    Are the short sales getting shorter?

    Are you seeing more of them now?

  40. bi says:

    real estate is local. some small builders in central jersey even raised the price this summer. i know one in marlboro and one in monroe (stratford development) because you cannot find new development from princeton up to allendale.

  41. twice shy says:

    5% commission it is.

    Attention all bottom fishers, sharks, LODs:

    Aren’t you beginning to smell blood in the water? The calendar turns to October next week; we all should be alert for opportunity.

  42. Clotpoll says:

    grim (32)-

    Let the agent ranks thin a little more. When all we have left are the old-timers and survivors, commissions will be just fine.

    The thing about survivors and old-timers is, the longetivity comes from being able to negotiate. And, that includes being able to negotiate for our own income.

  43. John says:

    The thing I am missing is sinking house prices is great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    First time buyers get a big break
    Trade up buyers get a big break
    Old people who are selling lose but hey they bought those places for 40K and are either half dead of dead anyhow so what do they need the money for.

    Lets say I have a 600K house and I want to trade up to a $1,2 million home I have to pay double, and take on an extra 600K mortgage however if my house falls to 100K I only need to pay 200K for the mansion, that is GREAT, even better I hope my house falls to one dollar so I can get that mansion for two dollars.

    I can’t wait to see mcmansions with their power cut off and doors boarded up with dirty children thrown out on the front lawn with their furniture by the marshalls. That would be a great buying opporutunity and would teach those snot nosed self entitled bratty kids a lesson in fiscal responsiblity. A win win if you ask me.

  44. John says:

    Housing prices falling sounds good to me.
    First time buyers get a big break
    Trade up buyers get a big break
    Old people who are selling lose but hey they bought those places for 40K and are either half dead of dead anyhow so what do they need the money for.

    Lets say I have a 600K house and I want to trade up to a $1,2 million home I have to pay double, and take on an extra 600K mortgage however if my house falls to 100K I only need to pay 200K for the mansion, that is GREAT, even better I hope my house falls to one dollar so I can get that mansion for two dollars.

    I can’t wait to see mcmansions with their power cut off and doors boarded up with dirty children thrown out on the front lawn with their furniture by the marshalls. That would be a great buying opporutunity and would teach those snot nosed self entitled bratty kids a lesson in fiscal responsiblity. A win win if you ask me.

  45. John says:

    How can people in NC afford 500k homes when they can’t afford teeth?

  46. skep-tic says:

    clot– I’ve been noticing the agent/seller ads recently and they inevitably seem to be priced higher than comparable homes. I wonder if it’s a variation of the FSBO effect (i.e., thinking how much more they can make on the sale rather than how they can undercut the competition because they don’t need to hire a broker). I also wonder why these people would note that they are agents in their ads. Are buyers’ brokers more likely to show the house because of it? Because from my perspective it seems pretty irrelevant.

  47. BC Bob says:

    “The calendar turns to October next week; we all should be alert for opportunity.”

    2X [42],

    When the first h-b goes under I am getting my boots out of the closet. When the 2nd goes under, I’m tying my laces.

  48. Mitchell says:

    #29 & #31.
    Thats exactly right. In my Development there had to be 10 homes sold that they rented out because they were having trouble selling where they were. Again mostly NY like you and I said. So the slowness were seeing is mainly because they cant sell where they are to get here. In my development alone there are homes that go on the market and sell within weeks to a month. Some are overpriced and sitting but when properly priced they sell quick. Some are also northern buyers who bought but cant sell back up north so the house is going back on the market and is empty.

    In turn because demand is still high from all the people looking to move here because we are still so much cheaper than the north its causing the prices to increase still. Of course once school starts things usually slow. But spring we should still see increases because again were still so much cheaper than the north.

    Im sure we will hit a point where its no longer a deal worth moving to the south but we havent hit it yet.

    When NC is priced at $85-$105 per sq ft NEW and NJ is priced some $200-$250 sq ft for Older homes. There is such a gap that this wont change until the gap closes a bit more. Not to mention the taxes and car insurance and pay rates climbing to near NJ rates.

  49. SG says:

    Mitchell: I understand all the beautiful things you said about NC, but What is your intention on puting that on this board?

    There has been long discussion about other options, but many on this board have identified due to other reasons (family, social, restaurants, Jobs, NYC) etc… want to live in NJ area.

  50. Clotpoll says:

    scribe (40)-

    The realization usually hits when the Notice of Default comes in the mail. I went to see a lady last night who ignored her NOD in May, then called me on Monday, when a marshal taped a Sheriff Sale notice on her garage door. At that point, the veil of denial lifted.

    She will be short close to 100K- over two mortgages- when all is said and done. We’ll be shorting the first position about 44K, and a second loan at 56K will be a total stiff job (fees and closing costs included in both). BTW, this one will be at a juicy 8% total commish (4% out, to max incentivize the buy side).

    All I’ve dealt with since July are people who are underwater. My office is doing 5-6 short/REO deals a month.

  51. Mike NJ says:

    $250a sqft? I wish. More like $350-400 a sqft up here.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    skep (47)-

    Check the chapter in Freakonomics about RE agents. Tells you everything you need to know on this subject.

    I can assure you that there’s pretty much only one reason any RE agent is selling his house right now. And, it’s not a good one.

  53. chicagofinance says:

    Mitchell Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 8:54 am
    #11. Your right when we first looked and saw the prices we figured they were in bad neighborhoods or something or that all the neighbors would be hillbilly’s but as we all call it. Charlotte is South New York as most of the people are former New Yorkers.

    If NJ didn’t get so messed up would still be living in the north but what are you gonna do NJ real estate craziness made things easy for us down here.

    Mitch: NJ was West New York…..do you get it? The NC advantage is a relative cost advantge….THAT’S IT. Once the “arb” is eliminated, then people pack up and move. People moving from Denver to NC? Denver was the cheap alternative for CA people looking to bail. FL was a cheap alternative. I hate to sound cynical, but NC is the flavor du jour 2007.

    Think about it….it’s called adverse selection. Why do you have a culture of shallow vacuous idiots infesting SoCal? Because the allure of the damn place is weather, and the type of people willing to put a premium on weather to that degree tend to have (as an average across the group) a “different” set of personal values.

    If you are attracting people to NC becuase it is cheaper and convenient, it doesn’t take too long for those advantages to be eliminated. Be careful what you wish for! By 2012, the locusts descending on NC will either be gone, or will sound exactly like the manure brains complaining about NJ. Same shit…new address….

    Caveat emptor NC-style tough guy.

  54. twice shy says:

    BC Bob [48],

    “When the first h-b goes under I am getting my boots out of the closet. When the 2nd goes under, I’m tying my laces.”

    Kara has gone under. Does that count as #1?

    Blog points to the first LOD that spots the companion cover in MSM from the famous Time mag “Why We Love our Houses” that signalled the top. I think we may get this cover any month now. Title now could be anything from “Why We Hate Our Houses” to “Why Our Houses Are Burying Us Alive,” etc.

  55. Mitchell says:

    #50 Im a former Jersey boy, Sayreville, Toms River, Old Bridge, Neptune City, etc etc etc.

    I follow real estate in general because its where I made the money. I post here and there but occasionally something sets me off and I start rambling about moving here. I was just thinking Im done talking bout it and need to get back on track with regular real estate talk.

    We are looking for bottom to possibly buy a forclosure or house to renovate back in NJ but I think were a ways off before that happens. Otherwise you catch me in here complaining about how the gov on NJ and how out of touch he is and making a state of rich people is making the state fail. Its was government which I think annoyed me to the point where I saw they were going to ruin the state. So much corruption in NJ politics and resources that most of the state should be put in jail. From the parkway which was supposed to be paid off to why I still get an ez pass statement even though it was returned ages ago.

    Im going outside to breathe some fresh air and take a breather from forums.

    Later,
    Mitchell

  56. RentinginNJ says:

    Clot,

    Yesterday you mentioned that you get a higher commission on a short-sale. Is this negotiated with the bank or the seller? Does a short sale require more work on your end? It seems like dealing with a bank would be easier in some ways…as you said… than arguing with Fred and Ethel Granitcountertops about why their home is worth a fortune.

  57. BC Bob says:

    “All I’ve dealt with since July are people who are underwater. My office is doing 5-6 short/REO deals a month.”

    Clot,

    How can that be? After all, don’t you cover Somerset and Hunterdon Counties, the highest median incomes in the state [by county]?

  58. BC Bob says:

    “Kara has gone under. Does that count as #1?”

    2X,

    No. Public co.

  59. skep-tic says:

    chifi–

    so what is the common denominator of people in the NYC area?

    I understand there’s a lot of opportunity here and that’s a big draw. but there are plenty of people (most) in the area who just trudge through life like everywhere else. only here, they work much harder and have considerably less material comfort to show for it.

    when inertia ties you to a high priced, overcrowded, aggressive area, does this mean you are more or less vacuous than someone who lives somewhere else for the weather or for the “arb” opportunity?

  60. Richie says:

    Mitchell:

    Nice to see you here. I clicked on your link there and it brought me to one of your sites when I realized that you’re the same Mitchell I picked up a domain name from earlier this year.

    :)

    You’re references to IT/Exchange also gave it away yesterday…

    -Richie

  61. bi says:

    53#, clot,
    where do they go after selling? cave or NC?

    > I can assure you that there’s pretty much only one reason any RE agent is selling his house right now. And, it’s not a good one.

  62. x-underwriter says:

    John Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 9:04 am
    How can people in NC afford 500k homes when they can’t afford teeth?

    Maybe you should have spent more money polishing your brain than those shiny whites

  63. Kettle1 says:

    As has been pointed out on this board multiple times, a home purchase is not just about $$$. While price is indeed a primary factor you also have to consider “quality of life” and “stage of life” factors. Both of those are subjective and would be incredibly difficult if not impossible to quantize given that everyone individual makes a different assessment of these points based on their desires and life circumstances.

    case in point; my wife and i recently had our 1st child. before he came along we were much more interested in staying in the NY/NJ area due to NY access/culture/etc. Now that baby Kettle1 has come along our criteria have changed quit a bit. We are seriously looking at NC. The reasons we are looking is that like other people here have pointed out, that while we will take a pay cut, any pay cut is massively offset by the cost of living (bonus = i have family in the area). We would like our child/ Children (future) to go to private school primarily because we strongly disagree with the current public education philosophy. In NC even with the reduced salaries ( we have done some job hunting and gotten attractive #’s) we can easily afford a comfortable place to live a and private school for baby kettle and a future sibling while still being able to travel and save/invest. Realistically we cannot duplicate that quality of living in the NY/NJ area without both working 80hrs/wk and then whats the point when you have strangers raising your family.

    As of now we are going to give it another year or two before we decide. But i think that for young families in similar situations, the numbers often point to leaving the area. NC is not the only choice, there are other markets depending on your field of work.

  64. lisoosh says:

    Clot:
    “All I’ve dealt with since July are people who are underwater. My office is doing 5-6 short/REO deals a month.”

    Are these normally listed on the MLS? Are they going quickly? I have noticed some unusually priced properties starting to pop up and wondered if they are short sales.

    Renting:

    “Fred and Ethel Granitcountertops” LMAO.

  65. grim says:

    THAT’S IT. Once the “arb” is eliminated, then people pack up and move.

    How do we know that we (NY Metro) aren’t the arb that has been played out?

    Look back at NYC circa 1970. Heresy, I know.

  66. still_looking says:

    clot (#51)

    any with acreage?

    sl

  67. scribe says:

    Clot,

    Wow. And this is just getting started, too.

  68. Mitchell says:

    #61 LOL. Small world. Love your site both this one and the other. You should have a banner to your anticost.com site.

    InteriorLiving.com is my latest one. I have 3 more ideas I plan on doing in the next year.

    How are you? Seen Pezza? Tell him he is short and fat and has bicept like he is taking estrogen.

    I am looking at putting up an interesting site that would benfit your anti-cost site hopefully by x-mas. I will have to give you a buzz on that one soon. Grab my e-mail and I will hit you up sometime.

    One thing I always said back in NJ is if we ever got all the geeks we know to collaborate on something we would have something big.

  69. scribe says:

    Emigrantdirect dropped their online savings rate to 4.75% this morning from 5.05%.

    My other online savings account dropped 10 basis points, but is still over 5%.

  70. RentinginNJ says:

    Renting:
    “Fred and Ethel Granitcountertops” LMAO.

    And don’t forget about their even more unreasonable neighbors:

    Stan & Liz Appliances

  71. bi says:

    64#, Kettle1, interesting and reasonable post.
    by the way, can you elaborate what part of thecurrent public education philosophy you disagree? thanks

  72. Kettle1 says:

    #54 chicagofinance Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 9:19 am

    If you are attracting people to NC becuase it is cheaper and convenient, it doesn’t take too long for those advantages to be eliminated. Be careful what you wish for! By 2012, the locusts descending on NC will either be gone, or will sound exactly like the manure brains complaining about NJ. Same shit…new address….

    Caveat emptor NC-style tough guy.

    I claim no expertise here, But i would suggest that a significant portion of the population bounces (i.e from Cali to Denver to NC etc) are partially due to unsustainable development practices. There have been case studies that show that areas where both local and state GOV have practiced sustainable development,you don’t see wild swings in people movement into/out of the area. This is a very complex issue and thatere are indeed numerous other factors, but one of the big factors is that over the last twenty years towns and states have developed their local communities without regard for the future impacts. If the development over the last twenty years had been guided by what level of sewage/traffic/school/social services a locale can sustain then i strongly suspect that alot of NJ’s issues would not exist

  73. grim says:

    One thing I always said back in NJ is if we ever got all the geeks we know to collaborate on something we would have something big.

    I’ve got plenty of ideas on the back burner without the manpower to execute. Always up for a venture.

  74. Mitchell says:

    #64
    Ok last rant.

    Excellent schools where private school not necessary.
    CARY/APEX, NC
    MOOREVILLE, NC
    FORT MILL, SC
    HARRISBURG, NC

    Mooresville and Cary Apex have made the top schools in the nation list. I never checked on Fort Mill but assume it is. Thats were all the Microsoft guys live.

    NC as a whole school systems is lousy but certain areas are excellent and its worth the extra dollar to live there. Or like you state public school. We also have a few Gifted Schools held by lottery to get into.

    Quality of life has increased significantly for me living here. As you can see I cant brag enough about living here.

    Kids went through no transition period most probably because there were some 23+ kids on our street around the same age.

    Tons of stuff to do here you wont be bored and everyone you meet has the same story as you in your post.

    Send me an e-mail through here:
    http://interiorliving.com/contactus.php

    I will try to answer any questions you have about areas and stuff this way we dont clog up the NJ forum with NC stuff.

    Ok that was my last post about NC. Done!

  75. grim says:

    Got a great deal on a Dell at AntiCost a few weeks back. Sold my big Dell laptop (17″) and picked up a Dell 531 with a 24″ monitor. The laptop-as-desktop thing just wasn’t working for me. When I saw this deal, priced at a bit over $700, I had to bite (the monitor alone usually sells for over $550). Sold the laptop the next day and put that money towards the desktop.

    Working on a large monitor really is a joy.

  76. Mitchell says:

    #73
    Except my mortgage will be paid instead of still having 230K in finances and all my cashflow will go towards retirement instead of a mortgage company.

    Its not for everyone but the equity of my NJ home reversed my financial position rolling it into NC.

    I work to live now instead of live to work. I dont remember the last time I worked more than 45 hours in a week but I suspect it was when I lived in NJ.

  77. Richie says:

    I see Pezza everyday, I’ll be sure to give him your memo.

  78. qwerty says:

    Video: Cramer on the “Today Show”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=533257614

  79. bi says:

    75#, mitchell, it is interesting to read your post on NC. Can you post some links for local info?

    >Ok that was my last post about NC. Done!

  80. njpatient says:

    #13 grim
    Lmao

  81. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Housing bottom may not come until H2 2008: Fed’s Lockhart

    The bottom of the housing market may not be reached until the second half of 2008, or later, said Dennis Lockhart, the new president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank on Friday. The persistence of the housing downturn seems likely to cause some drag on consumer spending, Lockhart said. Lockhart said the balance of risks has shifted from higher inflation toward slower growth. “I believed, and still do, that the factor weighing most heavily on this change in the outlook has been the potential negative ramifications of the financial turmoil,” Lockhart said.

  82. Mitchell says:

    #74
    I like to go into ventures with little to nothing (mainly just personal time) this way the risk is small to nothing. I have one next year that is going to cost me some coin but its what I want to do that the wife can handle in her spare time.

    I can be reached here.
    http://interiorliving.com/contactus.php

  83. hoodafa says:

    FWIW, front page of USA Today today leads off with this story on the top half of the page: Housing Slide Yet To Hit Bottom

    Read it at:
    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-09-27-new-home-aug_N.htm?csp=34

  84. njpatient says:

    #27 gary
    Lmao
    (it’s Friday, and I’m more easily amused….)

  85. Imus says:

    I went to school down in NC. Nice place to visit, but NEVER would want to live there. Very different culture, northerners are never really accepted, far from family, isolation, etc. It’s a bummer if conditions in NJ are SO bad it would force one to relocate there, but I suppose that is a decision each person must make. Think I would prefer Vermont or the like. Cheers.

  86. John says:

    I don’t understand why anyone on this site is buying a home even in a short sale. The market has to collaspe before prices truly tank and saving the flippers and IO people through short sales is just prolonging the agony. Do not buy any house unless there is positive cash flow. You are only delaying the pain and preventing the bottom from occuring quickly. We need a buyers strike. Back in 1992 you cut prices and no-one came. Millionaires were renting in NYC and the Hamptons cause only a fool buys a house is what they thought, when we get that mindset that is the time to buy.

    By the way NC is going to get spanked, it is a fools market. Once home prices fall here why would anyone go there, the only drawing point is cheap houses. Back in 1992 to 1998 when homes were 180K to 300K I didn’t hear of anyone moving there. Now that homes are 600k to 900K NYers are moving left and right but that will be short lived. They will be underwater in their home in NY or they will be a first time buying getting a bargain here so why move the hell down there. Reminds me of Harlem, Newark and Shirley – when there prices get high you know the market is ripe for collaspe!!

  87. bi says:

    64#, one big factor of “quality of life” is school. The Lawrenceville School is a private school in my area. The tuition is about $35K a year. In NNJ/CNJ, the tax rate is not much different regardless of school systems. For the people who cannot afford or are not willing to pay for private schools, they will chase towns with good schools. that is why the market of premium towns will not collapse. In early 90’s, the housing price did not go down more than 3% from peak.

  88. bi says:

    88#, In early 90’s, the housing price did not go down more than 3% from peak in desirable towns such as millburn.

  89. RentinginNJ says:

    By the way NC is going to get spanked, it is a fools market. Once home prices fall here why would anyone go there, the only drawing point is cheap houses.

    I look at it this way; you can buy a beautiful home in NC for $275k. If the market goes down, so what? You are still living in a beautiful home that’s very affordable with reasonable taxes.

  90. pretorius says:

    Among people whose circumstances enable them to choose where they live, the common denominator in the New York City area is these people tend to be very rich or very smart.

    Take the richest 10% of the New York metro population and compare this group to their counterparts in North Carolina, and there is simply no comparison. It is the same with the smart people. Thousands of Ivy League graduates head to New York each year. The same cannot be said for anyplace in the South.

    Why do the richest and smartest people choose to live in New York and a few other places, such as San Francisco? Because today they prefer places with character – particularly dense, older neighborhoods having locally owned shops which you can walk to, along with transportation options besides the car. Bust most of all, they like to be around other very smart or very rich people, and the New York metro has plenty of both.

    On the other hand, North Carolina attracts people having mainstream American tastes. These ideals include large single family houses located in massive subdivisions, automobile dependency, and a preponderance of national chain retailers and restaurants. The growing cities of North Carolina fit this description, making them very attractive to the typical American middle manager or bureaucrat. It is not surprising that many people in these roles relocate to North Carolina from New York and New Jersey.

  91. Imus says:

    SO true Bi. Good point.

  92. pretorius says:

    #91 is a response to skeptic #60

  93. grim says:

    88#, In early 90’s, the housing price did not go down more than 3% from peak in desirable towns such as millburn.

    Do you have data to support this?

  94. Clotpoll says:

    BC (58)-

    Think again.

  95. Clotpoll says:

    Renting (57)-

    Negotiate with the bank on the commish? In a short sale, it’s really a matter of semantics. It’s the bank’s money…or lack thereof. I agree to the commish with the seller, though.

    The bank whines and cries when they see my vig, but I tell ’em to go ahead and foreclose if they don’t like it.

  96. Kettle1 says:

    John #87 and Imus # 86

    As i said in my previous post (#64); moving just for $$$ doesnt make sense, you have to consider the other factors like family and lifestyle. In my personal example we have also considered Vermont and new hampshire but Mrs Kettle1’s family is in NJ and mine is in NC/SC. So for us, NC would probably be the winner on the basis that we now have children and (for us at least) you don’t realize how big a factor having family nearby is until you have a kid or two.
    While $$ is the primary driver in real estate, people (including this board) seem to forget that $$$ is not the only factor. If i move to NC then i am not doing so just to maximize the value/return/sqft of my home. Also consider that for me (i am in Biotech)there is actually a better job market in NC then in NJ, and my personal opinion is that the days of big pharma in NJ are numbered. They may not completely leave but NJ is no longer a Pharma power house

  97. Richie says:

    6 homes foreclosed yesterday in morris county, the mortgage companies now own them.

    All 6 of them had mortgages taken out in 2005/2006.

    All of the mortgages were adjustable rate riders.

    Towns: Chester, Mendham, Parsippany, Mine Hill, Victory Gardens, Rockaway

  98. BC Bob says:

    Clot [95],

    Sarcasm

  99. JBJB says:

    “automobile dependency, and a preponderance of national chain retailers and restaurants.”

    Sounds like New Jersey to me.

  100. pretorius says:

    JBJB,

    Where do you think NJ ranks in a table of US states?

    I am guessing high 40s on both, if not 50. And Hudson County, where I live, is one of the least auto dependent places in the country and locally owned retailers and restaurants have retained an impressive market share.

  101. grim says:

    Every NJ vs. Elsewhere argument almost immediately turns into an NYC vs. Elsewhere argument. Don’t forget folks, we’re on the wrong side of the river. NJ <> NYC. Or are we trying to say we are great by association?

    Does putting up a Motel 6 is next door to a Four Seasons make it any nicer?

  102. Kettle1 says:

    #91 Pre,

    Actually the RTP (Raleigh) area has a huge number of world class PhD’s doing biotech and pharma research, so your statement may be a little to general. Outside of Boston and Cali, RTP is the biggest brightest Biotech center in the US currently you can argue that either Boston or RTP is the leader.

    With regard to lifestyle (maybe i took the post personally..???) there is definitely some truth to your statement however living in high density neighborhood/buildings is not inherently better then single family homes. That is another can of worms as there is a middle ground. NYC would be much more sustainable if the banned all motor vehicle traffic from midtown/downtown except for commercial /taxis at certain hours. While at the same time the current subdivision/commute model is a horribly inefficient method.

    Ultimatly, that issue comes down to sustainable development which i mentioned in my previous post. The complete lack of planned/reasonable/sustainable development in NJ is one of the big reason that NJ has a lot of its current issues. If NC does not plan well and the large rate of migration to NC continues they are certainly vulnerable to the same problem.

  103. Hard Place says:

    MLS # 2441756 is located on 116 Wellington Ave. They bought near the peak at $855k in 6/05. They are asking $899k. Any comments on what people think this will sell in the current market or next year?

    Millburn is one of the towns I would like to move, but I’m awaiting more reasonable prices. Though the house is nice I wouldn’t pay more than $725k currently. I’m not a RE bull, so that’s my pessimistic assessment.

  104. pretorius says:

    Kettle1,

    I acknowledge that RTP areas has a lot of high tech jobs.

    However, a ridiculously disporportionate of this country’s successful tech, finance, and media startups still occur in New York and San Francisco.

    Regarding sustainable development, the keys are density and public transportation. New Jersey, particulary the northeastern quarter of the state where most of the people live, ranks very highly on these metrics.

  105. grim says:

    MLS # 2441756 is located on 116 Wellington Ave. They bought near the peak at $855k in 6/05. They are asking $899k. Any comments on what people think this will sell in the current market or next year?

    Original list price on the Wellington property was $950,000.

    At $899k they are basically at breakeven. After taking away the 5% commission, they are looking at $855k.

    The initial price reductions might not have been painful, any additional ones certainly will be.

  106. Kettle1 says:

    #105

    I occasionally gamble, so i would say for >700K

  107. Kettle1 says:

    oh, a disclaimer…

    I am not in realestate, i am a 10yr old skipping school, so listen to me at your own risk, oh and my dad can beat up yours

  108. pretorius says:

    JB,

    Hudson County is an extension of New York City in every way, except for political boundary lines.

    Same thing with North Jersey suburbs – very similar to Westchester and Long Island.

    Talking about New York and New York metro is relevant because North Jersey, where most njrerport readers live, is as much a part of Manhattan’s orbit as the outer boroughs and suburbs that happen to be in New York State.

  109. Kettle1 says:

    # 106 Pre,

    Once again yu have some good points, but recently boston was ranked #1 for start ups with San fran as #2, FYI

    Density and public transport and indeed factors in sustainable development bu there are other options. It is possible in rural areas to develop sustainably, but you need heavy investment in renewable/ local energy sources ( i.e wind/solar/geothermal). This is a very interesting and complex issue and while fun to discuss, i wont clog up JB’s board with it. You have some good points Pre but there are many other facets and avenues of approach to sustainability that do not rely on density.

  110. pretorius says:

    Kettle1,

    Can you link the start up survey? Was it for tech only, or did it include finance and media?

  111. Hard Place says:

    At $899k they are basically at breakeven. After taking away the 5% commission, they are looking at $855k.

    That’s not including any renovations they may have done, because the listing alludes to some renovations (kitchen & bath). That’s probably at least another 25-50k, depending on quality of workmanship. I don’t want to bask in anyone’s pain, but that sucks for them.

    Sometimes I think it sucks to rent, but I feel lucky I’ve been able to convince my wife we have to suffer a little in a smaller space to preserve for our future. I’m risk averse by nature, that’s why I’m not fabulously wealthy. But I’m not dirt poor either.

    I wonder if they are selling because their mortgage is resetting or just because of change in situation?

  112. CAIBC says:

    hard place

    offer 700K..just make sure that you keep it to under 35% of your take home for the out of pocket payment…

    what do you have to loose? they will probably say no…probably come back with a counter offer and you counter that with 725K – best and final…

    IMO, since they bought at the bubble, will be tough to convince them..but you NEVER KNOW

    if you do get that price, you will make it onto JBs next lowball list!

  113. Mitchell says:

    #80 Very last NC post. I feel commited to having to reply to these again I dont mind chatting with anyone using this link to contact me.
    http://interiorliving.com/contactus.php

    YMCA’s are popular here go figure? Some have small water parks. Still golds and peak fitness have places here too.

    YMCA Mooresville
    http://www.ymcacharlotte.org/lowes/facilities/gallery.aspx

    Gem Mountain (Lot of these here)
    http://www.gemmountain.com/

    NC Skiing
    http://www.goskinc.com/

    For looking up schools
    http://www.greatschools.com

    Rock Quarry in Mooresville NC.
    http://carriganfarms.com/quarryphoto.htm

    About the lake around Charlotte
    http://www.crescent-resources.com/communit/charlott/lake_norman/lakenormanfacts.asp
    520 miles of shoreline (more than the coasts of both North and South Carolina)

    Whitewater rafting in Charlotte
    http://travel.msn.com/Guides/article.aspx?cp-documentid=347241

    6 Flags
    http://www3.paramountparks.com/carowinds/

    Nascar if your into that
    http://www.lowesmotorspeedway.com/

    Mapquest CHARLOTTE TO ORLANDO (Why Fly?)
    Total Est. Time: 8 hours, 0 minutes
    Total Est. Distance: 525.61 miles

    Forum on schools around charlotte
    http://www.city-data.com/forum/charlotte/33018-relocating-areas-best-school-system.html

    Charlotte the City is small

    A lot of us Expect the 2020 summer olympics will be in Charlotte.

    Wachovia may be attempting to get a pro baseball team since BOA has the Panthers stadium. Either wasy a Baseball field I think it coming to downtown charlotte.

    Ritchie remove this if you need to and force anyone to just contact me at the link. I dont want to spam up your site with this.

    I love NJ I just dont love the NJ Political parties and how they have messed up the economy of the state.

  114. njpatient says:

    “some small builders in central jersey even raised the price this summer. i know one in marlboro and one in monroe ”

    Thanks for the anecdotes about the guy you knew once who told you about the thing with the stuff.

    That’s helpful market information.

    I’m grateful.

  115. chicagofinance says:

    skep-tic Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 9:32 am
    chifi– so what is the common denominator of people in the NYC area? I understand there’s a lot of opportunity here and that’s a big draw. but there are plenty of people (most) in the area who just trudge through life like everywhere else. only here, they work much harder and have considerably less material comfort to show for it. when inertia ties you to a high priced, overcrowded, aggressive area, does this mean you are more or less vacuous than someone who lives somewhere else for the weather or for the “arb” opportunity?

    skep: I only have time for a brief response, so I will not reiterate a lot of the facts that have already been stated.

    NYC’s problem is that we have everyone indigenous to the area, then we ALSO have transplants that crowd-out everyone on the margin. For ease and time I will use kettle as an example (please no offense intended). Ostensibly he is from NC and his wife from NH, BUT THEY ARE HERE. Once the job opportunity is gone or the quality of life issues become too extreme, the calculus is easy.

    I have a different perspective than most. I am from this area. However, I went to post-graduate school in another city with aggressive career minded people who could choose to live anywhere. The upshot. Most everyone wanted to go to NYC, SF or remain in Chicago. It speaks volumes. I know a lot of people who “hate this place”, but they don’t care. I know others who would never live here, but will always own an apartment in the city, because you always need a toehold in NYC.

    To be clear, there are a good number of people who will lose their jobs in this area in the next 18 months. If they are not from this area, and if the job elimination is a permanent change in capacity of their particular industry, they will leave.

    If you do not recognize the impact on NYC of the baby boomers, the boomlet kids aged 15-30, and related economic activity, then you are refusing to appreciate long-term trends. NY Metro is in a serious upswing and much of what you see is CERTAINLY sustainable, but not forever.

    The only proof will be 5-10 years from now.

    I will bet on mean regression.

  116. Hard Place says:

    Can someone shed some light on the extreme differences in taxes even within certain towns solely due to the neighborhood? For example in Millburn, Glenwood/Hartshorn it seems like taxes are 30-40% more for similar size houses than in South Mountain/Wyoming and slightly less of a premium than Deerfield.

    Is it desirability of neighborhoods? I know Glenwood/Hartshorn is considered Short Hills w/ a different zip code, but it is still Millburn. The only difference I see is your kid goes to a different Elementary School and a zip code. Do my higher taxes give me other benefits?

  117. grim says:

    Hudson County is an extension of New York City in every way, except for political boundary lines.

    So what you are telling me is when the “very rich” and “very smart” come to live in New York City, what they really mean is they want to live on the wrong side of the river in Jersey?

  118. HEHEHE says:

    Only intelligent and wealthy people live in the NYC area.

  119. njpatient says:

    #66 grim
    “Look back at NYC circa 1970. Heresy, I know.”
    …and a point I was making last week. I don’t think it can be ignored.

  120. Hard Place says:

    CAIBC – I’m not planning on making any offers. Just trying to start a discussion. I’m on the sidelines until late next year. I may buy in 2009/2010.

    With the dearth of buyers and tightening mortgage standards, I’m guessing we’ll start seeing a lot more comp busters on the downside. The tightening of lending will be the accelerant on the downside, just like the loosening of lending was an accelerant on the upside. To me that’s the only logical path until the market finds an equilibrium.

  121. Mitchell says:

    Let me say this with the downturn of the housing value do you think NJ legislature will reduce the massive property tax increases they have done to everyone over the last couple of years? If you do send me some of that your smoking. The state capitalized on the housing boom by increasing your taxes. %#^&$#^% NJ Government.

    In SC they are going to be reducing peoples property taxes as if they were not low enough to begin with.

  122. JBJB says:

    “Where do you think NJ ranks in a table of US states?”

    I don’t know or really care. All I know is what I see. I can leave the Lincoln Tunnel and drive to Philly and never be less than 1 mile from a strip mall with dedicated parking lots containing a preponderance of national chain retailers and restaurants.

    I think you are indeed trying to associate Manhattan with Anywhere, NJ. I get it. There is no place in the US like Manhattan. But your diatribes about NJ being a panacea of urban development for wealthy, educated elites frolicking about on public transportation are a bit rediculous.

    Given the current and projected financial status of NJ, the fact that the only growing industry is the state government, and said state government is both corrupt and incompetent, any future hope for NJ does indeed revolve around being close to NYC, but NYC it is not. If NYC wasn’t nearby, NJ would be Detroit with better pizza.

  123. Mitchell says:

    TIP to anyone who does make the trek from NJ to NC. Make sure to get a pay stub from a NC company before registering your car in NC this will prevent them from imposing a tax on you when you register your vehicle in the state.

  124. pretorius says:

    Jersey captures its fair share. Check out Hoboken, Weehawken, waterfront JC – plenty of smart, high income youngsters moving to these neighborhoods, just as they are moving to Manhattan, Queens, and Brooklyn.

    Take Hoboken. The per capita income and educational attainment (>= Bachelors) of people living there in 2000 was more than double the national average. I am sure this gap has widened since the last census.

    The United States has high proportions of rich and smart people. So if a place like Hoboken has more than double the US average, it is fair to characterize that place as very rich and very smart.

    Plus people coming to the New York metro who prefer suburbs settle in Millburn, just as the settle in Scarsdale and Garden City.

  125. njpatient says:

    #94 grim
    “Do you have data to support this?”

    All signs point to NO.

  126. pretorius says:

    125 responds to 118

  127. New Home Owner says:

    New Home Sales in the Northeast rose 42.3 pct to 74,000 units.

    The worm has turned!

  128. njpatient says:

    “Hudson County is an extension of New York City in every way”

    I suppose, although the local opera company isn’t quite as good.

  129. njpatient says:

    “The only proof will be 5-10 years from now.

    I will bet on mean regression.”

    Yes to both, and we should all meet in a bar in 2017.

  130. pretorius says:

    JBJB,

    I actually believe that most parts of New Jersey, with the exception of Hudson County, peaked in the 1990s and have entered a period of long term decline, relative to other parts of the country.

    Notice the pharma industry. Companies can’t attract scientists to New Jersey anymore. That is why the state’s pharma companies are buying companies on the West Coast and building labs there and in a few other places, like Boston.

    The only place in New Jersey that is capturing a growing share of the nation’s smart people today seems to be the parts of Hudson County that are closest to Manhattan.

  131. njpatient says:

    Aaron – sorry I confused you with ADA yesterday.

  132. Aaron says:

    Take the richest 10% of the New York metro population and compare this group to their counterparts in North Carolina, and there is simply no comparison. It is the same with the smart people. Thousands of Ivy League graduates head to New York each year.

    That’s fine and good, but for working class people it’s hell. Not many of the ones I used to know benefited from the culture because they couldn’t afford to.
    That’s what malls are for.

  133. njpatient says:

    #120 grim
    “So what you are telling me is when the “very rich” and “very smart” come to live in New York City, what they really mean is they want to live on the wrong side of the river in Jersey?”
    LOL. I grew up in the city, and I wonder where pret did, because although NNJ folk may consider themselves to be in the same boat with the NYC folks, the NYC folks feel quite different, and in no uncertain terms. That’s why you’ll hear them ask questions like “what’s the difference between Jersey girls and garbage?”
    Pretorius, I take it you didn’t grow up in the city?

  134. pretorius says:

    “Pretorius, I take it you didn’t grow up in the city?”

    Didn’t grow up in New York or New Jersey, so I have an unbiased perspective on this area.

  135. grim says:

    Hudson will become the 6th Borough when the river runs dry and our legislature votes to sell it to NYC to pay off our debts.

    Even then New Yorkers will look down on Hudson.

  136. Justin says:

    “Take the richest 10% of the New York metro population and compare this group to their counterparts in North Carolina, and there is simply no comparison. It is the same with the smart people. Thousands of Ivy League graduates head to New York each year.”

    I don’t know the answer to this but what if you take the richest 10% of NYC and adjusted for cost of living in NYC; is the difference that great?

  137. Hard Place says:

    Interesting another 6/05 purchase @871k going on the market in Millburn.

    MLS – 2446996 25 Claremont Dr. for $910k.

    Almost the exact situation as the other one I posted. After a little more than two years they relist for sale after making renovations to the house. If I see some more cases like this I wonder if these are 2/28 ARM situations facing a reset?

  138. BC Bob says:

    Aaron [132]

    Can somebody, anybody, [hello out there] please step up and at least throw some s#it against the wall in support of our currency. Our ill conceived monetary policies and fiscal drunkenness are pummeling the dollar. Hank, you told the Chinese that Americans would increase their savings rate, hah,hah! Why do WS pioneers become clowns in DC? Well for such a rich nation, we do a fantastic job of importing the world’s savings. Can you at least step up and whisper that we believe that a strong dollar is in our best interest. At least try to ignite a dead cat bounce. You are robbing poor John Q blind. Poor John Q doesn’t even recognize it. If we import over $2 trillion in goods and the dollar is down 20%, John Q is paying $400 billion more, just in the damn currency conversion and now John is facing arm adjustments. Can’t that $ be better spent here? That does not even take into calculation, price increases, from foreign firms, to compensate them for their losses in currency exchange. It’s a total travesty and nobody says boo. We pay $80 for a barrel of crude. It costs $40 BP. Doesn’t anybody care. Watch out, the dollar folly will result in a much bigger crisis than an overbought, overpriced, depreciating roof with 4 walls.

  139. njpatient says:

    “Didn’t grow up in New York or New Jersey, so I have an unbiased perspective on this area.”

    Fair enough – but the NYC folk have a very biased perspective, and most of them think that NJ is an armpit. NNJ folks may think “we”, but the NYC folks think “us” and “them”, with “them” being the “bridge and tunnel crowd”.

  140. njpatient says:

    “Even then New Yorkers will look down on Hudson.”

    More succinct and to the point. Agreed.

  141. pretorius says:

    Njpatient, everybody outside NJ thinks it is an armpit. I am keenly aware of the state’s reputation among people living across the river.

  142. njpatient says:

    Sing it, BC!!

  143. Hard Place says:

    Another similar property 7/05 purchase @ $971k going on the market in Millburn after a little more than 2 years.

    MLS – 2444828 41 Haddonfield for $995k.

    From the looks of it, house looks fairly updated.

  144. Aaron says:

    Didn’t grow up in New York or New Jersey, so I have an unbiased perspective on this area.

    That’s the stupidest thing I have heard. It means you have an uninformed perspective.

    We used to go up every winter and window shop at all the things we couldn’t afford around Rockefeller center. That was our culture for the year.

  145. John says:

    Plus if you move to NC your children can learn the proper way to wear a white sheet and tie a noose, lost arts in NJ.

    Actually two of my two next door neighbors moved to NC last year, one filled vending machines and the other was a 45 year old retired cop. Both had the intelectual capacity of a tella tubby. The good news is the aveage IQ in my town and the towns they moved in NC both rose.

    I know you keep repeating that for the working class NC is a better deal. But that means that your children get to pick spouses from a lower gene pool and you may have idiot grandchildren, hardly worth saving a few bucks.

  146. grim says:

    Interesting another 6/05 purchase @871k going on the market in Millburn.

    MLS – 2446996 25 Claremont Dr. for $910k.

    This one is also a 5% commission deal, after commission. If it sells at asking the sellers lost money on the deal.

    Lose money on real estate? In Millburn? Inconceivable!

  147. John says:

    50 of the Largest Metro Areas with the Largest Forecasted Home Price Declines

    Metro Area/State Peak Bottom Price Decline
    Stockton, CA 06Q1 08Q4 -25.0
    Palm Bay-Mel-Titusville, FL 06Q1 08Q4 -24.9
    Sarasota-Brad-Venice, FL 06Q1 08Q3 -24.8
    Reno-Sparks, NV 06Q1 09Q1 -22.4
    Modesto, CA 06Q2 08Q3 -22.3
    Detroit-Liv-Dearborn, MI 05Q3 09Q1 -21.3
    Fresno, CA 06Q2 09Q1 -20.0
    Oxnard-Thou Oaks-Ventura, CA 06Q2 08Q3 -19.2
    Sacramento-Ard-Arc-Rosvll, CA 06Q1 08Q4 -19.1
    Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 06Q2 08Q4 -18.7
    Deltona-Daytona-Orm Bch, FL 06Q1 08Q3 -17.9
    Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 06Q2 08Q2 -17.8
    Hartford-E/W Hartford, CT 07Q1 08Q4 -17.6
    Cape Coral-Ft Myers, FL 06Q1 08Q4 -17.3
    Visalia-Porterville, CA 06Q2 08Q4 -16.1
    Riverside-S Bernardino-Ont, CA 07Q1 09Q2 -15.9
    Bethesda-Gaith-Frederick, MD 06Q2 08Q4 -15.9
    Lansing-E Lansing, MI 05Q3 09Q1 -15.7
    Bakersfield, CA 06Q2 09Q1 -15.6
    Warren-F Hills-Troy, MI 05Q4 09Q1 -15.4
    Newark-Union, NJ/PA 07Q1 08Q4 -15.4
    Vallejo-Fairfield, CA 06Q1 09Q2 -15.3
    Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 07Q1 09Q1 -15.1
    Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 06Q1 08Q4 -14.0
    Poughkeepsie-New-Midd, NY 06Q2 08Q3 -13.9
    Edison, NJ 06Q3 08Q4 -13.3
    Worcester, MA 05Q4 08Q3 -13.0
    Baltimore-Towson, MD 07Q2 09Q2 -12.8
    Peabody, MA 05Q4 08Q3 -12.5
    Nassau-Suffolk, NY 07Q2 09Q1 -12.3
    W Palm Bch-Boca-Boynton, FL 06Q1 08Q3 -12.2
    Tampa-St Peter-Clearwater, FL 06Q4 08Q3 -11.7
    Tucson, AZ 06Q2 08Q4 -11.7
    Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA 06Q2 09Q1 -11.6
    Washington, DC 07Q3 09Q4 -11.5
    Ft Lauderdale, FL 06Q1 08Q4 -11.5
    Flint, MI 06Q1 08Q2 -11.3
    Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 05Q3 07Q4 -11.3
    S Diego-Carlsbad-S Marcos, CA 06Q1 08Q4 -10.9
    L Angeles-L Bch-Glendale, CA 07Q3 09Q1 -10.6
    Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA 07Q3 08Q4 -10.3
    Portland-Biddeford, ME 06Q1 08Q3 -10.2
    Rockingham/Strafford Cty, NH 06Q1 08Q3 -10.2
    Miami-Miami Bch-Kendall, FL 07Q2 08Q4 -9.9
    Boston-Quincy, MA 05Q3 08Q4 -9.4
    Providence-N Bedford-Fall Riv, RI 06Q1 08Q3 -9.4
    New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 06Q2 07Q3 -9.4
    Wilmington, DE/MD/NJ 06Q3 08Q3 -9.2
    Cambridge-Newton-Fram, MA 05Q3 08Q3 -9.0
    Youngstown-War-Boardman, OH 05Q1 07Q4 -8.7

    Source: Moody’s Economy.com

  148. Kettle1 says:

    # 113 Pre,

    I believe it was for tech and biotech, i will see if i can find it.

  149. njpatient says:

    “We used to go up every winter and window shop at all the things we couldn’t afford around Rockefeller center. That was our culture for the year.”

    Aaron, we used to do the same, except we were coming all the way down from the UWS in the 80s, which, at that time, was a bad neighborhood.

  150. John says:

    GS expects the decline in residential investment to accelerate again. This is exactly what we’ve been discussing. Also note that GS expects housing starts to decline to 1.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), existing home sales to fall to 4.8 million SAAR, and New Home sales to 650K (SAAR).

  151. njpatient says:

    “Inconceivable!”

    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

    (aware of the sarcasm but couldn’t resist the quote)

  152. Kettle1 says:

    CHIFI # 118

    No offense taken. But actually my wife was born and raised in NJ and my father was an executive for ATT back in the day. For those who dont know what that means, it means i lived in every state east of the Mississippi at least once and sometimes twice :) I did my undergrad in NJ and found my wife while i was at it;)

  153. Kettle1 says:

    I feel dirty admitting this, but apparently i have a thing for “jersey girls”……

  154. grim says:

    njp,

    I’m still waiting for someone to proclaim that the NJ real estate market “is only mostly dead”.

  155. njpatient says:

    #150 John
    “Plus if you move to NC your children can learn the proper way to wear a white sheet and tie a noose, lost arts in NJ.”

    Not really – see here:
    http://www.adl.org/PresRele/Extremism_72/4973_72.htm
    to quote (this story is from February, 2007):
    “ADL has identified the following states as being notable for active or growing Klan chapters: … New Jersey”

  156. njpatient says:

    #159 grim

    You’re bluffing
    (he’s bluffing).

  157. njpatient says:

    …I should have added that NC did not make the ADL list

  158. gary says:

    Born and raised in Hudson County my whole life – the son of a tavern owner and fire fighter. If I don’t know a thing about “Jersey” moxie, then I don’t know who does. I find this whole discussion on NY/NJ/Hudson County very amusing.

  159. BC Bob says:

    “I feel dirty admitting this, but apparently i have a thing for “jersey girls”……”

    kettle,

    Jersey Shore?

  160. lostinny says:

    Have fun storming the castle!

  161. RentinginNJ says:

    I know you keep repeating that for the working class NC is a better deal. But that means that your children get to pick spouses from a lower gene pool

    2/3 of adults in Cary NC have a college education, putting it no. 1 in the U.S. for mid-size metro areas.

  162. gary says:

    RentinginNJ,

    But Forrest Gump had a college education, so I guess that figure doesn’t mean much. (I’m kidding you)

  163. BC Bob says:

    Gary [163],

    Margaret Hauge to Baldwin Ave to Bergen Co. I agree, it’s quite amusing. I would figure that the median income in NNJ is 250K? We are so NY? Hilarious. NY calls us the armpit.

  164. x-underwriter says:

    BC Bob Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
    “I feel dirty admitting this, but apparently i have a thing for “jersey girls”……”

    http://www.djais.com/

    Make sure to check out the Gallery.

    Ahh, the memories of days gone by

  165. gary says:

    BC Bob,

    I’m a Heights boy and our tavern was in Greeneville for 30+ years so I covered the whole city. Yup, Margaret Hague.. birth place of most of the free world.

  166. Mike NJ says:

    It took me years to get over my hatred of all things “Jersey” and move here. Living in Long Island really does that to you. It is only with age and perspective did I realize that the people that make fun of NJ need to look in the mirror. They were bashing NJ when in fact it was just as bad in LI. 8 years living in Manhattan between the two really straightened me out. One of the greatest websites out there….

    http://getoffourisland.com/what_happened.html

  167. njpatient says:

    “the people that make fun of NJ need to look in the mirror. They were bashing NJ when in fact it was just as bad in LI.”

    Too right – and the New Yorkers hate both.

  168. njpatient says:

    full disclosure on the “bashing” front – I grew up in NYC, my mother grew up on LI, and I moved to NJ. That about covers it.

  169. John says:

    Of course 2/3rds of people in NC have a college degree but it is from some Bob Jones like non-accrediated school where bible thumping girls get the MRS>

  170. RentinginNJ says:

    Ahh, the memories of days gone by

    Happy hour at Djais. Those were the good old days.
    Many years ago, I had a shore house within walking distance to Djais and Bar A.
    This past summer, I spent my days changing diapers and mixing formula.
    How times have changed.

  171. John says:

    Smart of your dad to marry a long island girl. jersey girls are GU.

    njpatient Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 12:53 pm
    full disclosure on the “bashing” front – I grew up in NYC, my mother grew up on LI, and I moved to NJ. That about covers it.

  172. Doyle says:

    Fair enough – but the NYC folk have a very biased perspective, and most of them think that NJ is an armpit. NNJ folks may think “we”, but the NYC folks think “us” and “them”, with “them” being the “bridge and tunnel crowd”.

    NJ Patient, the funny part about the B&T crowd statement is that I hear it constantly from young girls I work with who have lived in the city for 2 years… and they are from the Mid-West. I have worked in NYC for 8 years and grew up 8 miles from the Lincoln tunnel and both my parents grew up in NYC. Somehow to them they are experts on all things Manhattan and I am the tourist.

    It cracks me up.

  173. READ MY LIPS: Money for Nothing is over. Got it GOT IT! says:
  174. Hard Place says:

    njpatient/grim/lostinny,

    You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia, but only slightly less well-known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!

  175. lostinny says:

    I think I’ll be watching that movie later tonight.

  176. njpatient says:

    “they are from the Mid-West. I have worked in NYC for 8 years and grew up 8 miles from the Lincoln tunnel and both my parents grew up in NYC. Somehow to them they are experts on all things Manhattan and I am the tourist.”

    Cracks me up too, Doyle. They are why I was finally able to move out of the city. My mother (still on the UWS) calls them “resident tourists” (the folks who will be running screaming back to Kansas as soon as the Street stops expanding and the crime rate rises a tad). They can’t even remember as far back as 1990, when the murder rate was 500% what it is today.

  177. njpatient says:

    “I think I’ll be watching that movie later tonight.”

    I may do the same. Mrs. Patient and I can watch it with the sound off and never miss a line.

  178. BC Bob says:

    “Djais and Bar A.”

    Renting [175],

    LOL! Some fun times. I’ve graduated to Kelly’s [JC south], Neptune.

  179. READ MY LIPS: Money for Nothing is over. Got it GOT IT! says:

    Sleepless nights for many…Owning 2 -3 homes bought on spec and caught in a housing downdraft that will last for several years.

    Good luck with the taxes interest payments and upkeep. You have just entered the Twilght zone

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzlG28B-R8Y

    BOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHHA

    Bob

  180. Mitchell says:

    Were sitting in downtown charlotte not long ago and this trampy looking woman walked by with big hair and someone sitting down next to me said looks must be a Jersey girl. I couldnt stop laughing.

    NJ where every traffic light is a drag strip.

    NJ IROC – Italian _______ out Crusing.

    NJ Road Rage is all the Rage in NJ.

    NJ is New Yorks Landfill.

    NJ Better than the china wall and can be seen from space because it glows.

    Why are New Yorkers so depressed? Because the light at the end of the tunnel is New Jersey!

    New Jersey state bird is the third finger on everyone’s hand

    NJ State Motto: “Road Closed” and its been that way forever.

    NJ You think EZ pass improved the parkway because you never experienced free roads.

    NJ Route 22 is believed to have more potholes than there are stars in the galaxy. Some may be larger than those stars and there since the beginning of time.

    NJ You’re radioactive and proud of it.

    NJ You actually think the page 6 girl in the Trentonian is hot (YUCK)

    As for Intelligence of the state of NJ
    Didnt anyone learn about democrats in office after Florio?

    NC is south NYC even if you dont move here your job will.

  181. x-underwriter says:

    RentinginNJ Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 12:54 pm

    How times have changed.

    I don’t miss sleeping on the dirty living room floor. One night was in the bed of a pickup

  182. Mitchell says:

    #183 Im a former Birch Hill Night Club (Bouncer) and JJ Rockers Guy myself.

    I preferred Belmar over Seaside and Jenkinsons.

  183. Essex says:

    #169…..nice! interesting gene pools there for sure….some betta dan udders.

    For my money you can’t beat a Pennsylvania beauty (dats what I got)…..;-)

    But my daughter was born in NJ and she’s gonna be a heartbreaker.

  184. BC Bob says:

    [185],

    But the Soprano’s was filmed in Jersey. Now every wannabe is touring the sights.

  185. READ MY LIPS: Money for Nothing is over. Got it GOT IT! says:

    hehehehhehehe

    Look Reality. Face it head or chase prices lower on the way to the bottom.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bREASgPArLU&mode=related&search=

  186. BC Bob says:

    “One night was in the bed of a pickup”

    X[186],

    More interseting question, what did you wake up next to?

  187. x-underwriter says:

    BC Bob Says:
    More interseting question, what did you wake up next to?

    She came from Djais, if that helps

  188. Jill says:

    Re: NC…

    My sister is a realtor in the Triangle area and a resident of over 25 years duration. Any of you who think that NC is practicing “sustainable development” has better get a clue. My brother-in-law is on a local commission fighting developers every step of the way. It takes me 8-1/2 hours to get to Route 15-501 off of I-85 — and another hour and a half to two hours to get to where she lives out near Pittsboro. You think the traffic on Route 22 or Route 17 is bad at rush hour? Try 15-501 in Durham sometime.

    I don’t know about the Charlotte area, but I do know that in the Triangle area, there is a lot of resentment among long-time residents that people from NJ are coming there and bringing their “I want what I want and I want it NOW!” attitude with them.

    I’m not trying to talk anyone out of moving there, but the difference between NC and NJ is that NC just hasn’t gotten to the point where we are yet.

  189. Pat says:

    Sorry if this duplicates and if I’m getting a little off topic below.
    [I also plan to get the movie..good reminder]:

    My BIL went to a “free & clear” sale. He was planning to buy the abandoned, vacant lot next to their primary residence, mostly for the purpose of keeping up the street in the area of their home (you know, the old doo-doo issue). It’s a small lot – too narrow for anything livable under current code, and the taxes due were maybe a grand.

    At the sale, when he bid, two women in the back of the room outbid each of his bids. Eventually, he gave up and went home. He had a limit because he’d seen a note on the title about one unconfirmed notification to a third party lien. The notification was still unconfirmed as of five days prior to the auction, so he wasn’t taking any chances.

    A few days later, one of the woman (with her husband and daughter) started knocking on the neighborhood doors, and eventually the little family ended up on Sis’s porch. “Did they want the lot?”

    Apparently, their relative felt very bad about out-bidding my BIL. She had seen a picture of the property with a house on it, and thought she was getting a house when she bid on it. This person/relative had offered the lot to the little family, but they couldn’t afford it. There was nothing she could do with the lot.

    O.K., vultures. Anybody ever grab carrion without doing a flyover first?

  190. dreamtheaterr says:

    #143 BCBob,

    Mr. Joe Sixpack will never understand why his bread will one day be $6 a loaf.

    With USD and non-USD assets and liabilities, I have to keep my balance while having a foot in each boat. If they start drifting apart suddenly, oops…..

  191. Kettle1 says:

    Lets take a step back….

    We seem to be discussing how NY/NJ is better because the upper class ($$/brains) is disproportionately attracted to the area and seem to be saying forget/screw the middle/working class.

    Realisticlty you cannot do this without serious consequences. The healthiest markets are usually those that have a solid and sound middle/working class base. If anyone is suggesting that an area highly segregated by income/class is a healthy area then do a little research about cities in both the US and abroad that ended up with this. Sorry if this is disjointed, typed in hurry… got a meeting

  192. Doyle says:

    #181 NJ Patient,

    Perhaps I’ll invite a few of the “resident tourists” to join us as Smith’s in 2017. Seeing you get knifed in close proximity ought to do the trick.

  193. BC Bob says:

    “She came from Djais, if that helps”

    X,

    I already knew that!!

  194. BC Bob says:

    dream [195],

    To hell with the world’s dollar holders, we have to prop up the dollar debtors. Have another beer, oops that costs more now.

  195. make money says:

    To hell with the world’s dollar holders, we have to prop up the dollar debtors.

    BC,

    Or the foreign currency holders…LOL Thanks again.

  196. SG says:

    JB: Check your email.

  197. Kettle1 says:

    YAY meeting canceled! hour long meetings that could be wrapped up in 5 minutes at someones desk SUCK

  198. Kettle1 says:

    A point that we seem to keep touching on but not diving into is this…

    NJ as a state is in serious financial trouble. With real estate tanking and subsequent property tax challenges/decreases/shortfalls the situation is only going to get worse. If the NJ GOV continues on its path to financial ruin then there could be serious negative impacts that cause the drop in housing to drop further or for long or both. If NJ continues on its tax frenzy and if it cannot somehow right itself you may see an increased rate of businesses leaving the state. And yes i know that there is a sizable segment of ppl who work in NYC but they do not make up for the majority of the state.

  199. skep-tic says:

    The Ivy Leaguers come here for the jobs. As we all know though, most of the people who start out in these very competitive fields are gone within a couple of years. So most of these smart, ambitious people who move here are really a rotating cast of characters, with considerably fewer staying for the long term. And an increasingly small number move to the suburbs.

    I am not from the area originally. I am not wild about NYC, though I do see why some people are. On the other hand, there is nothing particularly unique about the NYC suburbs except how expensive they are. There is better public transportation here than some cities, I will give you that, but not appreciably better than that which serves the suburbs of Boston, D.C., Chicago or Philly.

    One thing people do not like about NYers (same with people from Boston), is that they think that anyone who doesn’t live where they live must be a moron. In this way, there is a very provincial mindset in these cities which is at odds with the degree to which they believe themselves to be worldly and sophisticated.

    The point is that are lots of major cities in the U.S. other than NYC that have major corporations, executives, doctors, scientists, etc. NYC does not have a lock on rich people or smart people. It is possible to be happy somewhere else without being a hick.

  200. BC Bob says:

    skeptic [204],

    Burn and churn.

  201. John says:

    Back in the day when I was in college and had no hampton house we would hit Neptunes, Ed’s Bay Pub, CPI and Bordy Barn where the real trash girls are and in Bordy Barn’s and Neptunes case they still are. NJ Shore always sucked as the cops have a pole up their ass about DWIs and won’t let anyone have any fun. Plus in NJ there are few beachfront houses. At the Hamptons way back you could drink on the beach and throw back 3-6, hit the deck at Neptunes for another 3-5, head to Boardy barn for the 5 for a dollar special, grab a nap and a shower in someones house and then hit Caseys for their two dollar drink special 10 to midnght, then hit a club for midnight to three thirty and then for last call hit either fisherman quarters of eds bay pub for last call, they stopped serving at 4am but would let you order a few ahead of time so you could stay till almost five am, then off to Hampton Diner for Breakfast from five am to sunrise and then back to beach till sleep it off till 11am and repeat process.

  202. John says:

    September 27, 2007
    In Praise of the Housing Bust
    By Steve Chapman

    Back in the 17th century in the Netherlands, there was a mass rage for, of all things, tulip bulbs. Prices got bid way up, and speculators jumped in to bid them up higher still. By the peak of the tulip fever, a single bulb was going for the equivalent of thousands of dollars. But eventually the market fizzled and prices plunged.

    If I had been one of the people who invested in flowers during the frenzy, I would have felt bad to lose my money. But I like to imagine I would also have taken great comfort in seeing the triumph of rationality — to find that there was indeed a connection between the real usefulness of tulip bulbs and the price they would fetch.

    Actually, I don’t have to imagine how I would feel, because I’ve been a participant in the closest modern equivalent. I’m a homeowner. Not only that, but I bought my current house in 2005, which now looks to have been pretty close to the top of the real estate boom. And I paid more than I really thought it was worth, in the firm expectation that someday, I could sell it at an even more ridiculous premium.

    With home prices dropping, that no longer appears to be a plausible forecast. When I sell, I may even take a loss. So I should be weeping. But somehow, I just can’t feel that bad. The boom in prices has long been disconnected from the actual utility of a single-family dwelling, and it’s satisfying to see reality assert itself for a change.

    Back in 2005, you could hardly hear a word about real estate without wondering who repealed the law of gravity. That year, the National Association of Realtors reported that in the previous 12 months, the median price of a home in Phoenix had risen 55 percent. In Orlando, the increase was 45 percent; in the Washington, D.C., area, 26 percent. Nationally, prices climbed nearly 15 percent.

    More amazing, this jump was not that far out of line with what had gone before. At the peak last year, home prices in this country were up 134 percent over the previous decade.

    They are not rising anymore. According to a report this week, they fell by 4.5 percent in July, the biggest decline since 1991. This will cause some disruption to the economy as a whole, and maybe even a recession. But in truth, the great majority of us will be better off in the long run if the housing bubble has finally burst.

    Most homeowners, after all, don’t face foreclosure even if their houses are suddenly worth less than before. Not until they sell will they take a hit. But even then, the pain should usually be mostly theoretical. That’s because while the house they are selling will command a lower price, the house they are buying will also cost less. The average person will come out even on the deal.

    It’s true that some people of modest means who have stretched to afford subprime mortgages will lose their homes. But other people, of equally modest means, will gain. Someone who couldn’t afford to buy at the height of the boom may find that a house is now within reach. Young people who were priced out of the market will be priced in.

    Falling home values will also mean downward pressure on rents. Just as cheaper cars, clothes and computers are a good thing, so is cheaper housing. For every loser, there is a winner.

    One group that will pay a price consists of older people who counted on selling their homes and using the accumulated equity to finance a comfortable retirement. But these are the fortunate souls who have profited most from the ceaseless escalation of real estate prices over the last 30 years. If they end up doing very well instead of amazingly well, we don’t really need to cue the violins.

    Of course, speculators who sunk money into second homes and investment properties, figuring they could flip them in a year or two for a handsome profit, will also get the short end of the stick. But that’s why it’s called speculation, not certainty. No one said they couldn’t buy Treasury bills.

    Like many events in a dynamic capitalist economy, the overdue cooling of an absurdly overheated housing market will inflict some pain. But that doesn’t make it a bad thing.

  203. thunderbolt says:

    I live 20 miles south of Charlotte and it’s a nice area. There is a lot of growth around, but it has slowed considerably. In my development of mostly brick houses, at least 15 houses are for sale. Several have been on the market for over a year. Prices start around $375k with the bigger, unsold houses asking $500k+. I lived in PA for about 40 years and vaca’d regularly at the Jersey shore. I flipped a couple of condos in ’05 before I moved south. I like both north and south. The weather is nicer down here. There are lots of NJ and PA license plates down here, so a lot of people are taking advantage of the weather and lower cost of living. I still have most of my teeth.

  204. dreamtheaterr says:

    No surprise

    “Commodities Head for Biggest Monthly Increase in 32 Years ” – Bloomberg

  205. HEHEHE says:

    Skep-tic,

    Thanks for making me feel bad, I though only smart and rich people lived in the NYC area.

  206. tom says:

    The day when China will start unloading those bonds is not far. I think they are now deciding whether to do it in 2007 or 2008 !!!

  207. stuw6 says:

    Wanna know what’s funny about all of those New Yorkers who make fun of New Jersey? They all end up moving out here when they start their family!

    Of course some times, they stop on Staten Island for a few years.

    As for the NC vs. NJ debate. I envision NC going through the same growing pains as Western Pennsylvania. I had a friend who 4 three years ago, bought a huge home in a nice town outside of Easton. They got double the home they could have afforded in NJ (they moved from Metuchen). They just told us that they are moving back. The schools are overloaded, the gangs have moved in and they can’t handle the Cracker Barrel anymore. They also said that there are so many inner city transplants that people aren’t neighborly. Take from it what you will.

  208. make money says:

    Notice the absurdly positive spin in this statement: ‘The week’s decline is smaller than the previous week’s drop of $48.1 billion, a sign that buyers are starting to return to the market.’ Since when does a decline mean that buyers are returning?

    “Furthermore,” Shedlock notes, “the Fed executed a whopping $38 billion in repos (short-term bank loans) today, agreeing to take $22 billion in mortgages as collateral. Traditionally, the Fed accepts only Treasuries as collateral. This is a sign of continued panic by the Fed to contain these mortgage-related problems.”

    Fed is accepting mortagges as collateral????

  209. BC Bob says:

    dream [209],

    Now we’re talking. Better than flipping RE in 2005.

  210. SG says:

    skep-tic: Good points. The other cities where I have found little snotty attitude is San Fransisco/Silicon Valley and San Diego.

    I think selection of City/Suburb has many factors into it. We tend to focus only on few aspects and everyone has different things which are important to them. Saying one city is best is absolutely impossible. This quote seems appropriate.

    “Who is rich? He that is content. Who is that? Nobody.” – Benjamin Franklin

  211. BC Bob says:

    “Fed is accepting mortagges as collateral????”

    Make,

    The window wasn’t big enough. The Goldman Fed has taken over Encap’s position in the Meadowland’s dumps. It’s now open to dump mortgages as well as “other related assets”. Maybe even tires and rims.

  212. EUR, GBP and JPY on a tear today. Especially the GBP. Is the street expecting another cut?

    Well, that’s mainly rhetorical, of course they are. I guess the question is can the Fed really afford to cut again?

  213. BuyNextYear says:

    JB —

    Any chance we can to see Lowball for essex county?

  214. make money says:

    “Fed is accepting mortagges as collateral????”

    Make,

    The window wasn’t big enough. The Goldman Fed has taken over Encap’s position in the Meadowland’s dumps. It’s now open to dump mortgages as well as “other related assets”. Maybe even tires and rims.

    This is goona be a good movie with a sad ending.

  215. Frank says:

    NJ agents have been busy this week adding 600 more listings to another record. How about they work on selling them, not just listing them? Inventory in Hoboken up 20% in the last 2 weeks. Wall St. layoffs starting to hit?

  216. BC Bob says:

    make [219],

    It was a comedy when I was witnessing bidding wars, for the right to get screwed by the municipalities/state of nj. Now, it’s turning into a tragedy. Unless of course, you are in “other related assets”

  217. make money says:

    How bad could things be if the stock market is close to a record high?

    Quite bad indeed, if you happen to calculate your net worth in U.S. dollars. The greenback has dropping as sharply as the stock market has been rallying.

    Blame Bernanke.

    Sooner or later – probably sooner – the dollar-holders of the world will realize that Bernanke will sacrifice the dollar to “save” the economy. They will realize that he will sacrifice dollar-lenders in order to save dollar-debtors. But no one likes being a patsy. The abused dollar-holders of the world will not suffer abuse indefinitely. Instead, they will seek the comfort and sanctuary of non-dollar alternatives like euros or Swiss francs or gold or bushels of wheat.

    INTERESTING STUFF!!!!!!!

  218. Essex says:

    I’ve lived in 6 states–albiet at different times in my life–I find the people here to be refreshingly down to earth. Mostly. I have affluent family in Darien, CT who downplay their wealth, but their mannerisms give them away. The people in my area are pretty cool. They aren’t really snobbish…they are seemingly middle or upper middle class…quite a challenge to maintain that status around here….in any other area, they be considered higher up on the food chain. Say what you will about this place, but it aint that bad.

  219. Mitchell says:

    Here in NC I know every neighbor on my block and a lot around the corner. Go to a house party at least once a month. Poker night about once a month so something every other weekend.

    When I live in NJ I knew 5 neighbors in the last 4 places I lived. Talked about having a poker night. Had a lan party every 3-5 months.

  220. Frank says:

    #224,
    You’re pushing NC so hard, it seems that you want all the dumb people from NJ moving down there and turning your nice NC into a dump like NJ. You better stop.

  221. dreamtheaterr says:

    It’s one wicked close for the dollar this week…..once the 1.4 handle against Euro was taken out, you can bet your pants it got quite a few nervous.

    You think the Chinese are unhappy now? Wait until they’re seriously unhappy…..

  222. Clotpoll says:

    Mitchell (185)-

    NJ state tree- vinyl siding.

  223. njpatient says:

    Now on CNN.com, a little sense:
    “Investors to Fed: Thanks for nothing
    2:27pm: The reckless are getting relief from Bernanke while the prudent are paying the price, argues Fortune’s Allan Sloan. (more)”

  224. njpatient says:

    193 jill
    “the difference between NC and NJ is that NC just hasn’t gotten to the point where we are yet.”
    and when they do, then there will be no point in going there

  225. Pat says:

    BC, what was the SE Sea reference in 17?
    WaadImiss?

  226. gerry says:

    so what are you doing here now?

  227. Maria says:

    Can anybody get me the latest sales for 3 bedroom condo’s in Paddington, Mahwah?
    Maybe the last 6 months.

    Thanks,

  228. njpatient says:

    #196 vodka
    Agree completely, provided that you were using “we” loosely (some of us in the convo don’t believe the premise).

  229. JBJB says:

    [223]

    I’ve lived in the West (So. Cal), Mid-West (Cleveland) ans Northeast as well as in Europe and I tend to agree. If you want to see snobby, spend some time in Newport Beach, CA or anywhere else in Orange County.

    It’s not that NJ is bad, its just that it could and should be so much better. I often compare NNJ to where my brother lives in the Boston suburbs (Needham), and it is so much better up there from a quality of life and a return on taxes standpoint. The towns are nice, clean, schools are great, the real estate taxes are high but not outrageous, and the local and state governements are competent for the most part and working in the public interest. When they do have major poltical issues the voters seem to be able to get rid of the scumbags and get things moving again the right direction. The state is friendly to new business and entrepeneurs, and in fact encourages innovative companies to open.

    In Jersey, it’s a vicious cycle of idiocy, corruption, and nonsense. Yet like trained sheep, the voters go right back to the polls and put the same people in office. I really don’t understand it, and it seems to be an affliction that only exist in NJ (and perhaps NY to some extent). Hell, even California has managed to turn it around.

    I simply fail to see where people are getting any decent return on the exorbanant taxes we pay in this state. The services are shitty, roads are congested and shitty, some schools seem to be OK, most are pathetic, the university system is average at best. NJT is a joke, people pay 250-350$/month to arrive late 4 out of 5 days a week and often sit in packed cars with no air conditioning or heat. Hey, but I get to wait around for an extra 15 min to have someone pump my gas.

    Now we have a Govenor who is supposed to be at least financially competent and what do we get? The same old shit of more bloated, ineffectual government and higher taxes, buisness hostility, class warfare, and unionism.

    I guess that is the key to re-election in NJ, but I have a hard time believing its tenable.

  230. John says:

    Raise your hand if you’re surprised that the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 in the third quarter was Countrywide Financial. Anyone? The poster child for the subprime mortgage mess slumped 48.1 percent as of Thursday’s close and was one of many mortgage and financial market stocks that had a hell of a time over the last three months.
    Year-to-date, the home-builder stocks have still had it worse. Pulte Homes was the only builder that made it into the bottom 10 S&P 500 stocks this quarter, but the bottom 10 in 2007 also include homebuilders Lennar, KB Home, Centex,and D.R. Horton.

  231. njpatient says:

    #197 Doyle
    “Seeing you get knifed in close proximity ought to do the trick.”

    Hee!

  232. RentinginNJ says:

    “the difference between NC and NJ is that NC just hasn’t gotten to the point where we are yet.”

    If you could roll the clock back 25 years, what advice would you give to a middle class family looking to buy a home in a “premium” Bergen County town (something possible for a middle income family years ago)?

    Would you say “don’t buy it, because one day the area will be overcrowd, overpriced, overtaxed and condos will be built on all of the open space?

    Probably not, because anyone who bought that long ago got a good deal; they “locked in” a premium town at a reasonable price and are close to everything. In fact, most probably couldn’t afford to buy their own house today. Today’s first time buyer either has to pay a fortune to live in that “premium” town or they move farther away and get the killer commute.

    So, to argue that NC will be like NJ one day, seems to argue to get in now while you can still get into the premium town (i.e. Cary etc), close to the job centers at a very reasonable price. Sure, taxes may get bad one day, but that will be offset by your very reasonable mortgage.

  233. grim says:

    Speaking of the shore, the dog and I are blogging from the beach on LBI.

  234. John says:

    I don’t even know the names of two out of four of my neighbors and I don’t want to. The thought of pushy neighbors inviting me to poker nights or tupperware house parties makes me want to PUKE. I want peace when I go home not a bunch of noisy neigbors asking why I did not go to the hill billy pot luck dinner at the VFW.

    Since most people in NJ are catholic or jewish the only way the neighbors down south want to hang with us anyhow is if we are on the end of a noose

    Mitchell Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
    Here in NC I know every neighbor on my block and a lot around the corner. Go to a house party at least once a month. Poker night about once a month so something every other weekend.

    When I live in NJ I knew 5 neighbors in the last 4 places I lived. Talked about having a poker night. Had a lan party every 3-5 months.

  235. John says:

    http://www.familywatchdog.us/ShowMap.asp?frm=0

    Boy is there a lot of sex offenders in Cary NC – hope you kids don’t end up someones little play thing.

  236. njpatient says:

    #203 Kettle1 Agree
    #204 Skeptic Agree
    #207 John ” I paid more than I really thought it was worth, in the firm expectation that someday, I could sell it at an even more ridiculous premium.” YEP.
    #213 Make$ “Fed is accepting mortagges as collateral????” We’re all doomed.

  237. RentinginNJ says:

    Boy is there a lot of sex offenders in Cary NC – hope you kids don’t end up someones little play thing.

    A search of Glen Rock NJ returns 50% more sex offenders than Cary.

  238. njpatient says:

    “Boy is there a lot of sex offenders in Cary NC – hope you kids don’t end up someones little play thing.”

    John, your link defaulted to the main search page, so I searched 10019 in NYC.

    Holy crap that’s a lot of child molesters!!!!!
    Why would any one live in NYC!!!

    (now I’ll go check Brigadoon).

  239. gary says:

    25 years back in Bergen County? How about 6 or 7 years. My brother bought a brand new 3500 square foot all brick Center Hall Colonial in NW Bergen County in late 2000 for (drum roll….) 695K. That’s right. Center Island granite, flat stone fire place in family room, crown moldings and chair rail throughtout, 4 bd./3bath on so on.

    And this is exactly what brought my vitriol to this forum. This is how much the masses were duped, brain-washed and pilfered. I have no sympathy for the industry that caused this disaster.

    Imagine that; a brand new CHC seven years ago for that price in NW Bergen. Oh, and he has a stream running at the edge of his backyard with a little platform his neighbor built for him so his kids can feed the fish and the ducks.

    Are you feeling nauseous yet?

  240. gerry says:

    john
    if you’re having second thoughts about moving to NC and love NJ so much, why don’t you stay? don’t let a blogger pressure you into moving.

  241. gary says:

    I feel a soapbox weekend coming on.

  242. njpatient says:

    wow – as opposed to Cranford, Scotch Plains, Garwood, Mountainside, Fanwood and Watchung, Brigadoon is a hot spot, an infestation, nay, a veritable CIRCUS of child molesters!
    (but remind me never to step foot in Plainfield…)

  243. John says:

    Actually the thought of getting to fly Hooters Air every time I visit NY is appealing – But since all the neighbors I really hate already moved down south it won’t help me much. Plus I told my wife they have to drag me out of my corner office feet first so I ain’t going nowhere till I eventually get the axe like we all do on Wall Street.

    That family watch dog site is great by the way, you should always use if before you buy a house as the house maybe cheap for a reason.

    everyone should enter their home zipcode for fun or not so fun if creepy people show up near by.

    http://www.familywatchdog.us/ShowMap.asp?frm=0

    gerry Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
    john
    if you’re having second thoughts about moving to NC and love NJ so much, why don’t you stay? don’t let a blogger pressure you into moving.

  244. Clotpoll says:

    grim (238)-

    Slacker.

  245. Hard Place says:

    John – that familywatchdog website is scary. Well at least you know where the crazy folk are.

  246. BC Bob says:

    “Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said Friday that every child born in the United States should get a $5,000 “baby bond” from the government to help pay for future costs of college or buying a home.”

    “The New York senator did not offer any estimate of the total cost of such a program or how she would pay for it. Approximately 4 million babies are born each year in the United States.”

    [Edit] How about 7 oz of gold?

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

  247. skep-tic says:

    #251

    translation: “Vote for me and I’ll give you $5000.”

  248. grim says:

    “The New York senator did not offer any estimate of the total cost of such a program or how she would pay for it. Approximately 4 million babies are born each year in the United States.”

    Please Lord, let her be kidding.

    Newsflash 2025, tuition [not] surprisingly jumps by more than $10,000 in a single year as the first “baby bonds” are cashed in to pay for college…

  249. grim says:

    Hat tip Calculated Risk,

    Netbank out of Georgia goes into receivership..

    http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/NetBank.html#Press%20Release

  250. Mitchell says:

    You know its funny you mention bergen county 25 years ago. My eyes opened up the first halloween here. Tons of kids having an incredible time trick or treating that it nearly brought a tear to my eye. It reminded me of Brick Town about 30 years go when I was a kid.

    LOL – NJ state tree- vinyl siding.

    NC isnt for everyone and Im sure it will reach NJ status in less than 30 years with all the northerners moving here so quickly but there are areas in NC that we are talking about moving to in a few years which havent taken off yet but are showing the early signs they are going to boom. If you can deal with a few years of trecking extra miles for the only grocery store but I bet in a few years it will have the usual Lowes, Super-Walmart, Super-Target, BestBuy, and restaraunt chains.

    I hate to say it but the housing boom didnt kill NJ but the taxes and additional expenses the state has imposed on the people for a crumbling infrastructure and the decreasing jobs and payrates are the demise. If the housing didnt price people out of market then the reduction of pay rates in the state is with the increased nickles and dimes you get pinched in every direction.

    I love FREE beaches and PARKS. What is a Belmar beach pass now?

  251. pretorius says:

    Details in this article match what I am witnessing. New York financial firms remain bullish about hiring, explaining why asking rents for New York office space are currently 38% higher than last year.

    http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=63236&v=8053101911

  252. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Defaults on Insured Mortgages Increase 30 Percent

    More American homeowners are missing mortgage payments, pushing defaults on privately insured home loans up 30 percent last month from year-earlier levels, according to a trade group.

    Borrowers more than 60 days behind rose to 58,441 in August, Washington-based Mortgage Insurance Companies of America said today on its Web site.

    The report bolsters data that show the worst U.S. housing slump in 16 years may be getting deeper. Foreclosures set a record in the second quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and last month lenders sent a record 108,716 notices of default, auction or repossession, RealtyTrac Inc. reported. Fannie Mae Chief Executive Officer Daniel Mudd said yesterday the weakness will last beyond 2008, increasing credit losses.

    “These defaults are a lagging indicator, so they’re probably going to get worse from here,” said Michael Darda, economist at Greenwich, Connecticut-based equity trading firm MKM Partners LP.

  253. njpatient says:

    “Newsflash 2025, tuition [not] surprisingly jumps by more than $10,000 in a single year as the first “baby bonds” are cashed in to pay for college…”

    Exactly right – college tuition has grown at a pace that makes the RE bubble look like a blip, due primarily to the twin policy conclusions that (a) everyone should go to college and (b) the gov’t should provide the “liquidity” for everyone to go to college.

  254. njpatient says:

    “translation: “Vote for me and I’ll give you $5000.””

    Wow – that’s almost 10 times Bush’s tax “rebate” was in ’01.

  255. HEHEHE says:

    Pre,

    Thanks for the article:

    “In addition, the industry cut more than 10,000 employees in the New York and New Jersey region in August, according to executive employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas”?

  256. zieba says:

    Hey, uh, not sure if anyone beat me to this but NetBank was just shut down….for good…ING takes over deposits.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070928/netbank_closure.html?.v=7

  257. njpatient says:

    “In addition, the industry cut more than 10,000 employees in the New York and New Jersey region in August, according to executive employment firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas”

    Wasn’t someone saying just the other day that there would be no layoffs in New York because there hadn’t been any layoffs in New York? I guess there will be layoffs in New York because there have been layoffs in New York.

  258. HEHEHE says:

    BC Bob,

    Equal Protection Law Suit- I want the present value of my 5K from 1970.

  259. njpatient says:

    to be fair to Hillary, it’s not that different from the republican social security privatization plan

  260. grim says:

    From the link above:

    NetBank Inc., an online bank with $2.5 billion in assets, was shut down by the government on Friday because of an unsustainable level of mortgage defaults.

    It was largest thrift to fail since the tail end of the savings and loan crisis more than 14 years ago. Federal regulators appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as a receiver for Alpharetta, Ga.-based NetBank.

    The last major thrift to be closed by regulators was Superior Bank of Hinsdale, Ill. It had total assets of $1.9 billion and was shut down in July 2001. Its failure has so far cost the FDIC’s insurance fund an estimated $273 million.

    In June 1993, when regulators shut down Western Federal Savings and Loan Association, which had total assets of $3.8 billion.

    NetBank had $109 million in deposit accounts that exceeded the FDIC limit. Those customers will become creditors in NetBank’s receivership, the FDIC said. The FDIC has a toll-free number for customers affected by the failure:1-888-256-6932.
    (Ouch… jb)

  261. BC Bob says:

    “What is a Belmar beach pass now?”

    An EZ-Pass tag pasted to your #ss.

  262. SS says:

    John #206

    Ah yes – the good ole days at the Barn! Too bad that place was only open one day a week. Always had a blast there until the Iroc driving meatheads moved in with their Mr. T starter set and began fighting with everyone who spilled a drop of bear on their Cavariccis.

    All the talk of Charlotte, NC – how about Wilmington or Jacksonville? What is the job /housing market like there?

  263. dreamtheaterr says:

    $5,000 “baby bond” from the government

    To all those lucky students who get to go on student exchanges overseas for a semester or two, enjoy them while you can.

  264. dreamtheaterr says:

    Pity the poor folks who started a Netbank savings account for a free iPod shuffle…..

  265. pretorius says:

    I knew when I posted the article that some folks would promptly get to work and fish up something that didn’t fit perfectly. Are either of you lawyers? Your behavior is a perfect match with the scummy ones, who excel at finding things to complain about but are useless at doing anything additive.

    I don’t know where that company gets its data from, but Moody’s Economy.com reported that the # of of office jobs increased in August in both New York City and Northern New Jersey. Would not surprise me if upstate NY is where the jobs are being cut.

  266. Mitchell says:

    #267 I can only speak of RTP and Charlotte.

    Wilmington or Jacksonville might be too far for anyone contacting me about those areas.

    Talk about college NC has a lot of incentives if your a resident and your kid goes to an NC college.

  267. Mitchell says:

    #270 Even if the jobs werent declining or layoffs increasing the pay rates on a lot of jobs in NY are declining.

    Because of the rediculous tax hikes in NJ over the last couple of years people cant afford the secondary taxes of working in NYC. I know a lot of people who wont go there even if they live close to the city.

  268. pretorius says:

    Mitchell,

    Comp in financial industry jobs has risen dramatically during the past few years. This year bonuses will be lower, but the general trend is toward higher comp.

  269. Mitchell says:

    Thats the same here.

    I have a friend on the trading floor here in Charlotte and as a desktop support person he will make over 250K. Its not a job for everyone because one mistake and you are banned forever from the company.

    Did you know that the majority of Wachovia’s income resides with 8 people on the trading floor? You can see why he has a 250K desktop position and one mistake Im sure could be more than what he makes.

  270. Essex says:

    Eggs….basket….One

  271. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Still playing catch-up on posts, but as for the NY-Hudson County extension, from my perspective, it’s pure rubbish.

    From the DC area. Moved to NJ (Hackensack) post college for a couple years. Was in NYC every weekend. Then moved into NYC. Did the reverse commute out to NJ. Was awful, so quit my job and took a job in the city.

    Have since moved to Brooklyn and gotten married.

    In my 7-8 years of experiences …

    – 20something women in NYC will not date anyone who lives in nj. It’s a stigma, but it exists. Nobody wants to commute out to NJ for a relationship.
    – u live in the city. so does your friend. then, your friend moves to hoboken. they might as well be on another planet. it will be a tilted relationship where they come to your place in NJ once for 25 trips into NYC. just how it is.

    I’m not slamming NJ or Hudson County. But to pretend it’s an extension of NYC is a joke.

    It’s basically a bedroom community. You move to Hoboken/Brooklyn/Queens for four reasons: 1) more room, 2) to buy a place, 3) you can’t afford to rent 4) you want to save money to eventually buy.

  272. lisoosh says:

    njpatient Says:
    September 28th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
    ” Brigadoon is a hot spot, an infestation, nay, a veritable CIRCUS of child molesters!”

    You are on a roll this afternoon, truly lyrical.

  273. BLB says:

    “Since most people in NJ are catholic or jewish the only way the neighbors down south want to hang with us anyhow is if we are on the end of a noose

    Well, if they picked up on your bigotry and attitude of superiority then maybe they’d be justified. If I mocked you for say, praying at statues at the House of Pedophiles, perhaps you’d feel the same way.

    Just saying.

  274. Clotpoll says:

    Settling in for another evening of Mets Death Watch…

  275. Don Mattingly says:

    I just took a look at rental for $1900. Four bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, huge kitchen, living room, huge family room. The bathrooms need updating but are fine as is for a rental. No deck or patio but the backyard is pretty big. It’s on a private street in a good neighborhood with a blue ribbon elementary school. I asked the realtor, what’s the catch? She said rents are coming down since no one is buying!

  276. SaneSmith says:

    More Jersey bashing in my inbox when I got home.

    CHUNKY PAM DIRRRTY JERZY COMEDY

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY4SF8xWKFo

  277. grim says:

    She is truly gifted

  278. skep-tic says:

    well, maybe the economy isn’t so bad after all given than I’m working on Fri night again

  279. njpatient says:

    “Your behavior is a perfect match with the scummy ones, who … are useless at doing anything additive.”

    Sounds more like a description of a flipper.

  280. Clotpoll says:

    …now slicing gently at my wrists with a butter knife.

  281. Clotpoll says:

    …praying Oliver Perez would hit me in the head with a slider.

  282. zieba says:

    Consumer confidence in the dumps along with perceived wealth effect from neg housing….

    The University of Michigan index was the second consumer confidence measure to be
    released this week. We saw the Conference Board’s version on Tuesday and it came
    in at 99.8, the lowest since April 2005 outside of Katrina, again well below consensus estimates of 104.3. But is key, as most economists raise their
    recession risks, is that both levels of consumer confidence are lower today than they were in March 2001 and July 1990. What both those months have in common is that
    they represent the onset of the prior two economic downturns. In March/01, the U of
    M index was 116.9 (83.4 now) and the Conference Board measure was 91.5 (99.8
    now); and in March/01, they were 88.1 and 101.7 respectively. If there is any
    message to this, it is to retain the underweight position in the consumer discretionary space that has worked so well this year (the sector has underperformed the S&P 500 by 1200 basis points year-to-date).

    Something is nagging at consumer confidence
    Moreover, the fact that confidence remained in a funk in September even with the
    better tone in the stock market and the Fed move may be a sign that the jobless
    claims, as we indicated yesterday, is only giving a partial glimpse as to what is
    happening in the labor market. Since there was something obviously nagging at
    consumer confidence in September, and seeing as it could hardly be the stock
    market or Fed policy, then it either boils down to lingering strains in the credit
    market, sustained deflation in real estate prices, and/or continued weakness in
    labor demand. Against that backdrop, we stick with our below-consensus
    nonfarm payroll estimate of +60,000 next Friday (consensus at +100,000).

    PS- I just saw that dirty jersey video…eyyyyy joey!…this’ [BLEEP]in great….

    PS2- I’ve uploaded 28 pages of gold propaganda for those with nothing to do this weekend…cheers!

    http://www.mediafire.com/?0nxoxijhbjt

  283. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    After reading 234, it’s tough to come up with any reason to live in NJ, other than, of course, proximity to NYC.

    So let’s say a recession hits in spring 2008. What are some of the first things to go? Vacations? Will this be like 9/11 – everyone sitting at home or taking trips inside the US?

    Right now, there’s no reason whatsoever to leave the US. Your money won’t get you anywhere in Europe.

  284. rhymingrealtor says:

    Okay for all interested parties, I think chunky Pam filmed the parts of the video where she was walking with the boom box in Harrison.
    Anyone else reconize the 2 families built by the same builder in the 70’s I think the name was green?

    KL

  285. pretorius says:

    Nice comeback njpatient.

    Flipping is a legitimate form of real estate investment which can add to one’s net worth.

    Condescending behavior – typified by people whose expertise is limited to criticism – adds nothing.

  286. AntiTrump says:

    #108 Grim.

    At $899k they are basically at breakeven. After taking away the 5% commission, they are looking at $855k.

    Maybe not if you consider the cost of carry on a $800K mortgage for two years and property taxes.

  287. PeaceNow says:

    20/20 is currently doing an hour on real estate. gee, maybe they’ll talk about NC…

  288. Everything's 'boken says:

    re 256
    ‘New York financial firms remain bullish about hiring’

    I work for a fairly large one and that is the opposite of my information.

  289. zieba says:

    “Well, um, we realized that what we comitted to six months ago is just not realistic…”

    hey moron…see comitted: “To bind or obligate, as by a pledge: They were committed to follow orders.”

    Not git’ to payin’ that mortgage fool!

    Burn baby, burn….

  290. sas says:

    Gold at $750.

    I’m still sticken to my prediction og $800 at years end.

    Oil at $100 sometime in 08.

    yes/no?

    SAS

  291. zieba says:

    RE: 293/256

    RE: comm real estate
    My firm is currently in contract on our commerical space in midtown, this year price was just too good to pass up, we’re packing up and heading to Englewood Cliffs if all closes well.

    RE: hiring on wall street
    I mentioned this recently, a friend was able to bullshit her way into a position at Bear paying 20% more than the same at ML, another at CIT was just hired….I wonder if the job cuts will be confined to fixed income and CDO trans….or if more broad based layoffs are in store…
    t

  292. Aaron says:

    As of the second quarter, the vacancy rate for Manhattan’s top tier office towers was 5.4%, the lowest since 2001, according to Cushman & Wakefield Inc.,

    That says it all, doesn’t it? 2001 was when the last bubble blew.

  293. zieba says:

    re:295

    and there’s a good chance you’ll get to load up. The $HUI needs to take a breather.

    http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/gold.png

  294. njpatient says:

    295 SAS
    I’ve been saying oil at $100 by July ’08 for about a year.
    This is not investment advice but merely my opinion.

  295. SG says:

    20/20 did a piece on Real Estate today evening. They had 2 cases where folks were not able to sell the house. People were crying that they are not getting deal their neighbour’s house.

  296. njpatient says:

    Pretorious
    “Flipping is a legitimate form of real estate investment which can add to one’s net worth.
    Condescending behavior – typified by people whose expertise is limited to criticism – adds nothing.”

    You called people “scummy” based on their career and now you cry about condescension??
    Flipping may sometimes add to the net worth of the flipper, but your claim wasn’t that lawyers don’t add to their own net worth, right? Your claim was that they don’t do anything additive.
    What do flippers do that’s additive?

  297. njpatient says:

    Sorry ’bout the Friday night office lights skep. There are still deals out there, and will be as long as the market stays afloat, even with all the PE stuff dried up (I had two all-nighters last week).

    Idiot mets……

  298. gary says:

    Started work at 8:00 AM, still working, hopefully will finish (praying) by 4:00 AM. EOM stuff.

  299. ithink_ithink says:

    Government shuts down NetBank
    Mortgage defaults cited as FDIC named receiver, ING takes over deposits

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21039715/

    WASHINGTON – NetBank Inc., an online bank with $2.5 billion in assets, was shut down by the government on Friday because of an excessive level of mortgage defaults.

    It was the largest savings and loan failure since the tail end of the industry’s crisis more than 14 years ago. Federal regulators appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as a receiver for Alpharetta, Ga.-based NetBank.

    Customers with less than $100,000 deposited with NetBank will be protected by FDIC insurance.

  300. Don Mattingly says:

    I’m starting to feel bad for the Mets. What the heck is going on with them?

  301. Richie says:

    It was the largest savings and loan failure since the tail end of the industry’s crisis more than 14 years ago. Federal regulators appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as a receiver for Alpharetta, Ga.-based NetBank.

    …wasn’t the first, won’t be the last…

  302. pretorius says:

    Njpatient,

    I should not have used the word scummy. I apologize.

    What do flippers add?

    1. Help condo developer sell his project before he begins construction. These fellas need people like me to put 10% down in order to get a loan to fund the building construction.

    2. Enable new construction buyers to purchase a place a month or two before they can occupy it. A lot of people want a new place but don’t want to wait 18 months or more, and that is where I come in.

    It is a high risk, high reward endeavour. My only regret is that I need to wait 10 years before flipping again around here. The only place in North America where condo flipping might work today is Alberta (booming) and Saskatchewan (about to boom) but it is hard to flip condos located thousands of miles away.

  303. njpatient says:

    10 years may be right – hopefully it won’t be long.

    Lawyers do additive things too, for the record. That high IRR RE PE deal that you emailed to JB awhile back? Lawyers made that happen.

  304. BC Bob says:

    “In March/01, the U of
    M index was 116.9 (83.4 now)”

    It may be skewed somewhat. They spoke to me.

  305. BC Bob says:

    “Flipping is a legitimate form of real estate investment which can add to one’s net worth.”

    It took me 20 years to learn to flip. I guess I didn’t get it back in the late 80’s/90’s. If only there was a school to teach me back then.

    OK. You are offered a free option with no margin money and open ended expiration, or at least until you can’t afford to pay even the teaser rate. The key is you set the expiration date. You have the right but not the obligation to take delivery. It’s a risk free transaction for the nothing down option buyer. Are you kidding me? I can’t get this deal from any house on the street. It’s not an investment, it’s a crap shot. If prices go up you flip to a greater fool. If prices stay flat or fall, you flip the keys back to the lender. What risk does the flipper have? Is there any other legitimate investment[equities,fixed income, commodity/financial futures] that isn’t inbred with risk, with a margin clerk breathing down your neck? What risk management principles does a flipper employ?

    Let’s see, say I’m long Oct S&P 1550 calls. If it doesn’t cost me anything, I would like to spread out of these and buy Feb, 2008. What a deal, why can’t I find a house that will work with me?

  306. SG says:

    It’s All About the Money
    Marlene Waldock
    9/17/2007

    The American dream is to own your own home. And, for more than 75 years, U.S. lenders have sought to make that dream a reality through a variety of mortgage programs. But in recent years, while the real estate market boomed, was the real intent of lenders to foster the American dream, or was it just plain greed?

    Over the years, the mortgage industry has experienced fluctuating interest rates and adjustments to loan terms that allowed lending institutions to provide billions of dollars for mortgages. But the less credit-worthy paid higher rates of interest to protect lenders than did other borrowers.

    Mortgaging property dates back to 1190 and the English common law that protected a creditor by giving him an interest in the debtor’s property. This “dead pledge”—from the Latin word “mort” for death and “gage” for pledge—was so named because the mortgage died either when the loan was repaid or failed to be repaid. In the Depression that followed the 1929 stock market crash, mortgage foreclosures were rampant.

    In 1934 the New Deal created the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to insure lenders against losses from mortgage defaults, establishing a 30-year fixed-rate loan program. The Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), known as Fannie Mae, was created in 1938 to purchase mortgages and issue bonds backed by them. The agency guarantees that the principal and interest on the mortgages will be repaid even if homeowners default.

    If actually owning a home is the desired end result, why is the payment schedule in favor of the lender? On a 30-year, 6 percent fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage, the borrower will pay $55,631.79 in interest and only $16,315 against the principal in the first 10 years, leaving an unpaid balance of $83,685.

    Why does the system not allow for a steady reduction of the principal? If on the same $100,000 mortgage a principal payment of $3,300 per year was applied and the annual interest was calculated on the unpaid balance, the total interest would be $49,110 for the same 10-year period and the unpaid principal would be reduced to $67,000.

    Under this schedule, the lender would collect $87,686 in interest over 30 years, or $28,000 less than the $115,000 that would be paid under the first schedule. The lender would make only 8.5 percent on its money instead of 11 to 12 percent. However, since today’s mortgages are held only about six years on average nationally, and four years in New Jersey, lenders can regularly sell the loans and use the proceeds to make new mortgages with heavily front-loaded interest.

    So why lend to people who clearly can’t afford to repay if the market for homes collapses? Borrowers who took out subprime mortgages were told that housing values would keep rising and homeowners could refinance their loans before scheduled high interest rates kicked in. But the housing market tanked instead and the homeowners who thought they were getting good deals now face foreclosures. In the beginning, subprime loans may have looked good, but sometimes the best-laid plans don’t work out. In the end, it was just about money.

  307. SG says:

    Will rate cuts avert a recession?

    26 Sep, 2007, 1500 hrs IST,Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, TNN

    I am somewhat surprised that the sensex as well as other stock markets the world over have taken off after the US Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate by 0.5%, to 5.5%. Other central banks are also expected to either cut interest rates or forbear from increases which had earlier been expected. Most central banks have opened their liquidity spigots after the subprime mortgages crisis.

    The markets think the Fed will cut interest rates further, maybe to 4% by the end of 2008. This monetary easing, they think, will save the world economy from the recession threatened by the housing bust. Corporate profits may slow, but will pick up again. Based on this optimism, the bulls are dominating the markets again.

    Yet some followers of the late Milton Friedman’s monetary economics may regard the reaction of markets as suspect, even crazy. Friedman would have said that the 0.5% cut was no more than a short-term ploy that would fool only the credulous. He held that the real economy could not be affected by monetary policy, save in the very short term.

    Monetary policy could lift prices, but could not lift entire economies, and could not solve real-economy problems like the excess housing overhang that today threatens a global recession. So, those who are basking today in the rise of the sensex to record heights may be in a fool’s paradise.

    The Fed’s interest cut has not fixed and cannot fix the real economy. This does not mean a recession is inevitable. But it does mean that, if a recession is averted, it will be for reasons other than the Fed’s monetary policy. What would Friedman have said about the current situation? He held that an injection of money into the economy would raise nominal GDP (which is real output plus inflation).

    In the first few months, most of the increase might be in real output, but prices would soon catch up, and then the entire increase in nominal GDP would be on account of inflation. Real GDP would not be affected at all. Real GDP would be determined in the long run not by money but other factors such as innovation, productivity, entrepreneurship and investment.

    Friedman’s most famous phrase summing up his philosophy was “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” This did more than suggest what monetary policy could achieve. It also suggested what monetary policy could not achieve. It could be translated as, “real-economy booms and busts are never and nowhere a monetary phenomenon.”

    Not all economists are fans of Friedman. I myself have grave doubts about the practical utility of some of his monetary economics. But most mainstream economists and central bankers are avid fans of Friedman. Ben Bernanke, head of the US Federal Reserve said in a 2003 conference in Dallas that “Friedman’s monetary framework has been so influential that in its broad outlines at least, it has nearly become identical with modern monetary theory.”

    And yet it seems that central banks the world over believe that monetary policy can, in fact, steer the real economy. Indeed, most Americans believe that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan was responsible in large measure for the sterling performance of US economy after the mid-1980s.

    Greenspan himself makes no such claims in his recent book. The Fed controls only short-term interest rates. Long-term rates are set by supply and demand in the market, and the Fed is helpless to fix them. Surely no monetary chief, Greenspan or otherwise, can control the fate of an economy by changing just one parameter, the short-term interest rate.

    Yet Greenspan has widely, and incorrectly, been credited with steering the US economy to prosperity. Greenspan himself gives the credit to the rise in US productivity, globalisation, and deregulation of markets (much as Friedman would have).

    In the last two years, short-term interest rates have risen above long-term ones in the US, inverting the yield curve. In earlier times, this would have indicated an imminent recession. But today Bernanke interprets it as a global savings glut (mainly in China, Japan and Opec countries) which has pushed down long-term interest rates everywhere.

    If indeed the global savings glut is so powerful as to overpower short-term interest movements, should the markets get carried away by a cut of 0.5% in short-term rates by the Fed? Marketmen can justify their euphoria by saying that central bankers have done more than just cut interest rates. They have ended the financial panic after the subprime mess by pledging to inject enough liquidity to soothe roiled financial markets.

    The Bank of England, which originally took a tough stand on imprudent borrowers, ended up by rescuing distressed mortgage lender Northern Rock. The British government said it would guarantee all deposits in all banks fully. In the US too, President Bush offered a rescue of distressed home borrowers who could not meet an increase in mortgage payments. This is not monetary policy. It is a fiscal guarantee backed by the full tax power of the government. It can certainly have real effects on the economy.

    Whether this is enough to wipe out the negative wealth effect of the housing bust remains to be seen. Economic textbooks often imply that consumption is linked just to income. But in real life people spend more if they think their wealth has increased (because of a housing or stock market boom). Financial liberalisation in the US has enabled people to freely borrow against their increased wealth to finance a consumption spree, which far exceeds their income.

    The housing bust now means that in the US, UK and other countries, the wealth effect may turn sharply negative, and induce people to spend much less. Whether that is an effect strong enough to cause a recession remains to be seen. Central banks have warded off a financial sector crisis. But monetary policy alone cannot ward off a recession. The business cycle, with its booms and busts, is alive and well.

  308. Orion says:

    FYI-

    Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 77.72, all-time record low.
    Support level is 80.

  309. BC Bob says:

    Orion,

    Will the fed open the window and accept dollars for euros, bp, cd, nzd, ad, grains, gold, uranium, etc…

    A 25 year trend line penetrated like a knife thru butter.

  310. John says:

    First of all Flipping is only good for the flipper who makes money. It does not add value to the economy and it saddles the couple who is stupid enought to purchase a house for an extra 200K mortgage cause of nice plants and paint which in turn they have to cut back on spending, saving for college and retirement etc. I sold a house that we did the tricks of the trade to get top dollar and come one now I got some extra coin in my pocket but rationalizing it is good for the economy is just stupid.

  311. thunderbolt says:

    c’mon man, next you’ll be saying day traders are worthless.

  312. John says:

    I am not saying traders are worthless. But if you bought lets say some internet crap stock in December 98 for 5 bucks a share sold it for 100 a share in March 2000 to some guy who lost his life savings you made money but it is hard to rationilze how it is good for the economy. I think that is different from the savy trader who bought undervalued Goldman Stock in August 2007 and sold it in October 2007 for a profit.

    Back in 1999 we were all selling tulips on wall street.

    The thing that people miss about the housing crash is that on a macro level no one lost money. If I overpaid 100K and took that money out of my bank account I just gave it to the seller so he had the extra 100K to spend on a new SUV etc. I can’t go back and have the govt. pay back the schmuck buyer who lost 100K cause I am doubling the money supply.

    FYI I sold my mothers house to a flipper in June 2004 who planed to do a major renovation and put it on the market for April 2005. He did a beautiful job and houses rose 20% in that period in that neighborhood. The schmuck paid $550K for house and did a 150K renovation and put it on the market for $790, $775, $750, $720 and then $699 by then he pulled it by Thanksgiving to wait till the Spring 2006 season. We had a big storm in the winter of 2006 the wrecked the roof and the guy had to do that on top of his new kitchen, bathrooms, finished basement, windows, paint and floors he already did. He is still holding that thing to this day. Unrented and Unsold. His daughter is living there instead of the dorm at NYU cause the house is next to the train. So he is at over three years of mortgage payments and taxes and is hoping for a turnaround. That was like his fourth or fifth house he flipped and I am sure the one we sold him was his last.

    The dope could have just done nothing to the house and sold it for 20% more a year later but he got greedy dumped tons of money in and lost his shirt.

  313. jamil says:

    About those NYC comments and how great it is. Yes, NYC has been a decent place in the last 10 years or so, but do you remember what it was like before? NY had a republican governor and 2 republican mayors and as a result, crime rates are way down, taxes are down, business is welcome and overall, the quality of life improved dramatically. Now we have a new governor whose priorities include handing out IDs to illegal immigrants and just wait for the next mayor, who will most likely be another left-wing Al Sharpton protégée promising to get rid of “guliani cops” (slogan from F. Ferrer’s election campaign in 2001). Once the taxes and crime rates go up again (as well as corruption and public union/mob control), the city will be s***hole again.

    Maybe NJ does not look so bad then anymore.

  314. njrebear says:

    Another scam put to rest.

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/09/fha-to-ban-daps.html

    FHA Down Payment Rule To Ban Seller Financing

    ” seller-financed down payment assistance has accounted for 30 to 50 percent of FHA purchase loans in recent years.”

  315. Frank says:

    Has anyone noticed the price reductions in Hoboken? 20+% Ouhhhhhhhhhh, it must hurt. I am glad I got out on time.

  316. x-underwriter says:

    John Says:
    September 29th, 2007 at 8:16 am

    First of all Flipping is only good for the flipper who makes money. It does not add value to the economy.

    I just wanted to make the comment that all those people who bought junk houses and fixed them up indeed added to the economy. Think about all those trips to Home Depot, the tile store, contractors, etc that they did in the process of fixing up the beater homes. A huge portion of the economy that makes its living off the housing industry will be hurting.

  317. dreamtheaterr says:

    #313, you mean major resistance for USD index at 80??

  318. John says:

    Maybe the economy of Mexico!!! My neighbor who was flipping just bought piece of crap houses and used a contractor number (without permission) to skip sales tax and then used his gardner friends and home depot parking lot help to do a quick shoddy fix with no permits and then off to a FSBO or a 3.5% realtor.

    Yes new home builders paying employees decent wages added to economy but the ten dollar a hour home deport parking lot mexican throwing up cheap paint did not.

    x-underwriter Says:
    September 29th, 2007 at 11:21 am
    John Says:
    September 29th, 2007 at 8:16 am

    First of all Flipping is only good for the flipper who makes money. It does not add value to the economy.

    I just wanted to make the comment that all those people who bought junk houses and fixed them up indeed added to the economy. Think about all those trips to Home Depot, the tile store, contractors, etc that they did in the process of fixing up the beater homes. A huge portion of the economy that makes its living off the housing industry will be hurting.

  319. John says:

    Actually even the new builders only added value if the owner is not in default already. So the new builders who sold to directly to people who did not default with no middle man flipper added to the economy. That would be a small crowd in Vegas.

  320. UnRealtor says:

    #304, holy smokes!

    Government shuts down NetBank
    Mortgage defaults cited as FDIC named receiver, ING takes over deposits

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21039715/

    WASHINGTON – NetBank Inc., an online bank with $2.5 billion in assets, was shut down by the government on Friday because of an excessive level of mortgage defaults.

    It was the largest savings and loan failure since the tail end of the industry’s crisis more than 14 years ago. Federal regulators appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as a receiver for Alpharetta, Ga.-based NetBank.

    Customers with less than $100,000 deposited with NetBank will be protected by FDIC insurance.

    Who’s next?

  321. UnRealtor says:

    Nothing like a flipper flopping story to brighten my day:

    FYI I sold my mothers house to a flipper in June 2004 who planed to do a major renovation and put it on the market for April 2005. He did a beautiful job and houses rose 20% in that period in that neighborhood. The schmuck paid $550K for house and did a 150K renovation and put it on the market for $790, $775, $750, $720 and then $699 by then he pulled it by Thanksgiving to wait till the Spring 2006 season. We had a big storm in the winter of 2006 the wrecked the roof and the guy had to do that on top of his new kitchen, bathrooms, finished basement, windows, paint and floors he already did. He is still holding that thing to this day. Unrented and Unsold.

  322. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Pret –

    What are your thoughts on
    A) mortgage rates rising
    b) jumbo rates about 7.25
    c) anyone who is trying to sell a house

  323. waters says:

    I’d be interested to get thoughts on this. Surprised to read the quote from Shiller.

    “What might this presage for Europe’s overpriced markets? Robert Shiller, a seasoned bubble-hunter at Yale University, has stressed the role of news reporting in influencing price expectations. If America’s slump deepens, it might trigger a reassessment in Europe’s property hotspots, particularly as tighter credit markets start to price out the more speculative investor.

    Asset markets are unpredictable. When house prices in London stalled during 2004-05, many pundits thought the spell had been broken. Then the upward trend mysteriously reappeared. As Mr Shiller noted recently: [b]“The London case study should caution any who feel that a substantial decline in home prices in the US is inevitable.”[/b] No one knows for sure how markets in Europe might respond to events in America. But one thing is certain: when it comes to asset bubbles, bigger is not better.”

    http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9804125

  324. READ MY LIPS: Money for Nothing is over. Got it GOT IT! says:

    It is really bad out there.

    If you have strong financials you OWN this market. Asking prices means nothing.

    Take at least 25% off of peak prices. At least. If you can’t get “at least this”…….wait.

    This housing situation is an avalanche in its infancy. Do not rush it. You get the best price and best house for your money. Value means something now. Past sales mean Nothing. Nothing. Comps? Ha!

    Bleed’em dry!
    Bababababababa

  325. READ MY LIPS: Money for Nothing is over. Got it GOT IT! says:

    Lots of sleepless night ahead for many homedebtors.
    Foreclosures are piling up.

    Today’s housing markets is much worse than 1993 market.
    I feel sorry for today’s buyers whom had to endure non-sense from realtors and homeowners. It is payback time baaaaaaaaaabeeeeeeeeee!

    hehehhehehe

  326. caibc says:

    i know many a realtors that have sold their own homes and moved into apartments in the 03,04, 05 timeframe….i just met another one the other day that moved a while ago into our apartment complex…she had stopped us in the hallway and asked if we were interested in buying….interesting right?

  327. Essex says:

    The ‘HOPE TEAM’….from COUNTRYWIDE…as in I hope I have a job next week.

  328. pretorius says:

    Waters,

    About a year ago, I thought there was a chance that the housing market in the New York metro would rebound promptly as happened in London. Some of the data was pointing in that direction.

    Obviously it did not happen. I think the biggest difference between London and New York metro is that political constraints on supply are a lot stricter in London.

    Look at the Jersey City waterfront. Demand for condos there remains strong. What has changed is that thousands of condos are on the market, putting downward pressure on prices.

  329. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Telling paragraph: “The national foreclosure wave, meanwhile, may soon become a tsunami. Some $120 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset at higher interest rates in the next three months. Subprime, adjustable-rate loans make up about $90 billion of that.”

    Countrywide pissed me off to no end on my flip a couple of years ago. I bought new construction out of state. Only put like 5% down, BUT did get a 30-year fixed (initially the intent was not to flip). After 6 months, having seen the house skyrocket in paper value, i called to try and get my PTI removed. They refused and were hardly even willing to listen to my case (based on comps, the house was ‘going up’ an avg of 10k-15k per month). I called back three months later. Same deal, except the people i was dealing with were even nastier.

    Worst part is that i never got my initial loan from countrywide. It was sold to them about a week after my buy. Naturally, the loan officer (who was a nice guy) told me that prices were rising and it’s easy to get PMI removed if that’s the case.

    Then i found this board, crapped my pants, and put my house on the market (Fall 06). It sat for two weeks without an offer. Then i really panicked, lowered the asking 30k, and it sold in two days.

    Now, i sit on the sidelines, 20% downpayment in hand, ready to pounce.

  330. d2b says:

    I’m waiting for prices to drop so that we can get a new shore house. I have a while to go before things become affordable down there. Will not buy anything for a few years because we rent a place year-round for peanuts.

    One other downside to the bubble. Shore neighborhoods that were quiet residential are now noisy. People that bought to flip can’t sell. Now they rent to anyone that will pay. The place two doors down is now trashed. A couple moved out after living there for 35 years and couldn’t sell. They rented it to tenants that destroyed it in 11 months.

  331. BC Bob says:

    “c’mon man, next you’ll be saying day traders are worthless.”

    I would never say that. They provided a means to inflate worthtless stocks[dot com] to enormous heights. Subsequently, the shorts had that much further to run. If it wasn’t for day traders who would have provided the liquidity. Too bad they got blown out. Also, gotta love the day traders in Japan. They also are
    presenting a gift on a silver platter. I wish everybody would quit their job and become a day trader in gold.

    Disclaimer: Except for Clot. He has sharp elbows and ice water in his veins.

  332. BC Bob says:

    Although I am not a Mutts fan, they showed the world something today. Gotta root for Willie.
    Go Mutts.

  333. BC Bob says:

    bi [338],

    No fed chairman should be a dolt.

  334. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says: September 29th, 2007 at 8:54 pm Gotta root for Willie.

    Gotta NOT root for Willie.

    As I review their roster and think about what to improve, something stands out STARKLY. The team has flaws, and upgrades are possible, but the changes are minor. As a result, there is only one answer…..and most of us that watch the games knew it in May, we knew it in October 2006, Cliff Floyd told us…..Willie Randolph. It is stereotypical, expected, and cliche to lay the blame at his feet, and utterly warranted.

  335. lostinny says:

    OT- Re: Yesterday’s Princess Bride quotes. I never did get to watch it last night. But I did get to see something called Idiocracy. Scary stuff. It’s like Jerry Springer’s rejects took over the country.

  336. BC Bob says:

    “People that bought to flip can’t sell.”

    d2b,

    But I thought that flippers were market crackerjacks?

  337. BC Bob says:

    Chi [341],

    Yet if they just get in, who knows? Many teams have played like crap, down the stretch, and went on to win it; Cardinals, Chisox [no relation to Chi]

    Going to the Hoboken fair tomorrow?

  338. Salty Steve says:

    339:

    Perhaps there’s a correlation between the Mets winning the world series and housing market peaks.. (maybe off by a year or two)

  339. RoadTripBoy says:

    And that, my friends, is the Rube Goldberg school of Economics.

    Those cartoons are hilarious. I wonder if this guy invented or influenced that old child’s game “Mouse Trap”?

  340. RoadTripBoy says:

    Clot and NJ Patient,

    You two were having a discussion/debate on another thread about overpaying for a property and I wanted to ask you both a question but I couldn’t post at the time so here goes:

    Isn’t there a difference between overpaying for a property and making a profit from the sale of it at a later date? I could envision a scenario where someone could buy at the peak of a market yet still sell at a profit later and another scenario where someone who bought at the bottom of the market could later sell at a loss. Aren’t overpaying and making a profit later two different things?

    Just trying to understand.

  341. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    September 29th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
    Chi [341], Yet if they just get in, who knows? Many teams have played like crap, down the stretch, and went on to win it; Cardinals, Chisox [no relation to Chi]
    Going to the Hoboken fair tomorrow?

    Bost: me no Hobo bobo……

  342. Clotpoll says:

    Tripper (347)-

    You’re exactly right. Which is why the whole “overpaid” issue is so difficult to slice-and-dice.

    The natural tendency is to also evaluate the quality of RE purchases using improper parameters, such as those used in asset classes that are marked-to-market.

    Finally, corny as it sounds, how do you measure quiet enjoyment and memories? Not to mention incredibly-favorable tax treatments on primary residences (even if you’re subject to AMT, there’s still tax benefit that flows from ownership).

    What I’m still adamant in asserting, however, is that losing some equity in a home purchase- due to the normal flucuations of the market- does not automatically mean that a homeowner has “overpaid”. That whole question can only be broached if- and when- an owner attempts to sell his home.

  343. Pat says:

    Two sisters. Each has a child age 10.

    Each sister inherits $100k.

    One sister buys a house in Jacksonville, FL for $279k in 2004. Puts 30% down.

    One sister buys a house in Jackson, NJ for $400k in 2006. Puts 20% down.

    Seven years later (let’s say 2013), which sister complains that she must to take out more loans for college because she overpaid on her house?

    Both earn $70k annually. Neither plans to sell their home for the next 30 years.

    Doesn’t overpaying also include assumptions of affordability relative to opportunity cost, alternate uses of funds AND house price changes?

  344. BC Bob says:

    “Finally, corny as it sounds, how do you measure quiet enjoyment and memories?”

    Clot,

    Are you campaigning for a new commercial? Baseball, apple pie and chevrolet? Put your hard hat back on and continue digging. You’re excused for that temporary brain cramp.

  345. MCN says:

    More in Morris face loss of their homes

    Foreclosures up slightly; subprime loans faulted

    The Morris County Sheriff’s Office says that 209 foreclosure actions were scheduled through the end of August, compared with 197 for the first eight months of 2006.

    “I recently got a call from one woman who is making $13,000 a year and her mortgage payment is $3,000 a month, but she thought she could continue living in her house,” said Zellman, whose organization provides education, counseling and assistance on housing matters. “Home ownership is great, but it isn’t for everyone.”

    Said Savio: “One mortgage representative we work closely with said we’re in the eye of the storm right now.”

    http://dailyrecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070930/BUSINESS/709300323/1003

  346. bi says:

    352#, there are about 40 municipalities in morris county and you can find 5 foreclosures in each town in last 8 month on average. we have to dig hard.

  347. njpatient says:

    #348 Chifi
    The Yanks won all of 89 games, and played horribly down the stretch in one of their recent championship seasons. Like Donnie Baseball said the other day, it’s about getting into the postseason dance. After that all bets are off. (See e.g. Royals, 1985; Twins, 1987).

    BC, I’ve gotta defend Clotpoll’s point on quiet enjoyment, despite other opinions on the specific point of “overpaying.” The quiet enjoyment is a big deal to me, and has a financial value for certain, though I couldn’t measure it. It’s somewhat similary to my irrational hatred of debt, even though my inner economist knows that debt can be a very good thing. I’ve been known to pay off debt that I hold at a low rate for the sole reason that I hate owing people money, even if I could have earned more on the money with which I paid off the debt had I instead invested it safely. I may have lost a few dollars, but what I gained in personal happiness had significant value to me.

  348. njpatient says:

    #347
    I would say “yes.”

  349. bi says:

    when you take your current job, do you think because it will help economy? unless you are doing hype and dump, which is illegal, it is the same for traders who were trading .com stocks 7 years ago or trading financial stocks 3 months ago. you are hired to make money for the firm and for yourself. the point is to make money no matter you are flipping houses or day trading stocks or lumber. the market will decide if you are helping economy – you are not helping economy when you are out.

    >I am not saying traders are worthless. But if you bought lets say some internet crap stock in December 98 for 5 bucks a share sold it for 100 a share in March 2000 to some guy who lost his life savings you made money but it is hard to rationilze how it is good for the economy. I think that is different from the savy trader who bought undervalued Goldman Stock in August 2007 and sold it in October 2007 for a profit.

  350. MCN says:

    352#, there are about 40 municipalities in morris county and you can find 5 foreclosures in each town in last 8 month on average. we have to dig hard.

    What? My only point was to contribute something I didn’t think was already read. It seems like the Star Ledger and Times are the predominant newspapers in the region.

  351. bi says:

    357#. sorry if it offended you. it was useful info though.

  352. chicagofinance says:

    OT Mets: Excerpt from a New York Magazine article from this week……

    [edit]
    The Closer

    As the Mets stumbled through the final weeks of the regular season, no one embodied their toughness and fragility more perfectly than Wagner. Statistically, he’s an all-time-great closer, piling up strikeouts and saves through twelve seasons; he signed with the Mets last year, after playing in Houston and Philadelphia, hungry for his first World Series ring. Yet Wagner’s blazing fastballs, which used to crack 100 mph regularly, defy genetic logic: He’s barely five-foot-ten, and he throws left-handed only because he broke his right arm—twice—as a child. Wagner can be overpowering, but often he’s a white-knuckle thrill ride through a pitch-black forest with your drunken friend at the wheel.

    Wagner wishes he could just mow everybody down with metronomic predictability. Yet that would be out of character with his roller-coaster life. Wagner’s mother was 16, his father 19, when he was born into abject poverty in the tiny southwest Virginia town of Tannersville. His parents split bitterly not long after, launching their boy on a terrible odyssey, from uncles to aunts to one set of grandparents then another and eleven schools in ten years. Many mornings, breakfast was a few crackers and peanut butter. Now that he’s making millions, he’s launched an educational foundation, Second Chance Learning, for kids back home.

    As a teenager, Wagner poured his rage into his pitching. Even when his fortunes finally improved, tragedy struck: His wife’s parents, who’d become surrogate parents to Wagner himself, were brutally murdered one night. “Things can change at any time,” he says. “There is no certainty in tomorrow.”

    That attitude helps Wagner maintain his sanity. “If I walk in after a save and this fan’s up there yelling, ‘We love you!’—yeah, you love me today. I blow a save, ‘We hate you!’ Well, you hate me today.” Wagner stoically accepts responsibility when he fails, but his sense of loyalty, and his frustration, leads him to punch back at critics of the worn-out bullpen. “We’ve been throwing four innings a night—for months!” he says. “Our pitching coach [Rick Peterson] has no experience talking to a bullpen. He can help you mechanically, but he can’t tell you the emotions. He has no idea what it feels like. And neither does Willie [Randolph]. They’re not a lot of help, put it that way.”

    The reeling team entered last weekend with three games to salvage its season. “If we get through this,” Wagner says, “regardless of how ugly it’s been, it’ll say something about the character of our team.” By now, you’ll know whether Wagner was a hero, a goat, or a merely a bystander in the final act of this historic meltdown. But as he sat in the dugout last week, speaking evenly in his lilting southern accent, Billy Wagner reminded me of those Confederate soldiers in Ken Burns’s Civil War documentary: honorable, defiant, and quite possibly doomed.

  353. mr potter says:

    BC Bob

    There are a lot of people who bought and flipped from 2002-2006 but you are right, there are quite a few people who are bought with intentions of flipping and CAN’T sell right now. Getting caught mid-flip is a bad bad bad situation.

  354. Bloodbath in Winter 2007 says:

    Bi: Either you read the following incorrectly, or I did:

    The Morris County Sheriff’s Office says that 209 foreclosure actions were scheduled through the end of August, compared with 197 for the first eight months of 2006.

    I read it as …
    Morris County Foreclosures
    Jan-July Total: 197
    August: 209

    If I read it correctly, that is nothing short of staggering.

  355. UnRealtor says:

    There are two houses down the street — same size, same number of bedrooms and baths.

    One owner bought in 2000, and has a mortgage of $3,000 a month, one bought in 2005 and has a mortgage for $6,000 a month.

    Their kids go to the same schools, the houses are equally as close to NY City, blah, blah,, blah.

    Only a realtor would have a difficult time determining which owner overpaid for their house.

    If they both sell in 20 years, they will both make a “profit,” but only one will have suffered a back-breaking mortgage for most of his adult life.

  356. Essex says:

    #349 “Finally, corny as it sounds, how do you measure quiet enjoyment and memories? ”
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Life is not simply about margins of numbers….some decisions/risks pay off in huge life experiences that enrich and enliven what is otherwise a rather dull existence. No, you cannot quantify every decision and if you do you might as well live in a bubble…devoid of any interesting experiences, spicy food, or naughty girlfriends.

  357. Essex says:

    P.S….the chick is the video posted above is gross….and in no way represents New Jersey as I know and love it….but is on par with the whole…I know New Jersey because I have driven on the Turnpike and smelled the meadowlands scenario…..IMHO

  358. Essex says:

    But, in fact, I can’t stop watching her. Someone shoot me.

  359. Pat says:

    Essex, thanks for the “I can’t stop watching her.”

    I also was trying to figure this thing out. The “Bette Midler conundrum?”

    I’ve never felt an particular attraction to females other than curiousity, and I also can’t stop watching her.

    Two bullets?

  360. Don Mattingly says:

    I am in Boston today. Took a walk around Fenway for the first time. Later on at Fanuel Hall I went into a sports photography store. One of the big, framed pictures they were selling was from earlier this year – a double play where they threw A-Rod out at second. ??!! Who would actually buy that?

  361. Fencesitter says:

    I’ve never been a big fan or admired James Kramer, recently I have to say, I give him credit and respect with his interview vs a member of the NAR. I admired the most when he said in the end, ” I will not hurt people by adviseing them to invest into real estate.” I’m scared to purchase my first home, thinking you can’t trust the raltor, he’s thinking about th commision ivolved and not for my interest.

  362. waters says:

    The Morris County Sheriff’s Office says that 209 foreclosure actions were scheduled through the end of August, compared with 197 for the first eight months of 2006.

    “I read it as …
    Morris County Foreclosures
    Jan-July Total: 197
    August: 209”

    It’s saying :
    Jan ’06 – Aug ’06 – 197
    Jan ’07 – Aug ’07 – 209

    In other words, not really a significant difference especially when considering how foreclosures have skyrocketed in other parts of the country.

  363. BC Bob says:

    “I am in Boston today.”

    Donnie Baseball,

    Go to the Top of the Hub, it may be a different name now. It’s the bar at the top of the Pru Bldg. Venture along Newbury St, maybe you’ll get lucky and get a cancellation at the Capital Grille.

  364. BC Bob says:

    “UBS 53.25, +0.14, +0.3%) is forecasting a third-quarter loss of swiss francs 600 million to swiss francs 700 million ($602 million) based on a writedown of swiss francs 3 billion to swiss francs 4 billion for fixed income assets.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ubs-expected-report-large-loss/story.aspx?guid=%7BB31DE2C5-B8BA-405F-BBD1-0766020FDB06%7D&dist=hplatest

  365. t c m says:

    #368-

    i lived in boston for several years. i knew there was a rivalry with the yankees, but they are obsessed with them – it’s really weird!

    i once went to a red sox game, against some other team (not the yankees) and there were all these people outside of fenway park with signs that said “yankees suck”. they weren’t even playing them! what kind of a loser hangs around outside a stadium with signs like that? it’s amazing, everywhere you went, they’d yell yankees suck. when i first moved there, my son, who was 6 years old at the time was wearing a yankees/”derek jeter” shirt. we were in the boston public garden, and this big beefy oaf came up to my son, and put his face in his face, and yelled “yankees suck!” at him, and then walked away. i was stunned – a gigantic grown man yelling at a first grader.

    they got more joy out of the yankees losses, than from a red sox win.

    i never really cared about the red sox, but now i hate them.

  366. Don Mattingly says:

    BC Bob – I just got back from Newbury Street. We had dinner at Tapeos, a Spanish restaurant. It was good!!! I’d love to head out to a bar right now but my co-workers are boring. Just as well, I need to get up early anyway.

  367. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    September 30th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
    “I am in Boston today.”
    Donnie Baseball,
    Go to the Top of the Hub, it may be a different name now. It’s the bar at the top of the Pru Bldg. Venture along Newbury St, maybe you’ll get lucky and get a cancellation at the Capital Grille.

    23: Better yet…..walk into any good corner bar in Southie in full NYY uniform, and say “JFK sucks and his brother Bobby was a fudge packer…”

  368. Don Mattingly says:

    tcm – fans yell “Yankees Suck” at Shea Stadium too, which I just don’t understand. Talk about an inferiority complex.

  369. chicagofinance says:

    waaaayyy OT & totally random:

    I am not a fan of the Beatles or George Harrison in particular, but I was reviewing something and came across the RNR HOF induction ceremony for Harrison (posthumously). They had Prince play the final solo…see it here, or if you want to just skip to the solo, it starts at minutes 3:30…..bloody chr—! I never really saw Hendrix in Prince, but absolutely there is a resemblance. I never saw it before….

    http://www.warnerreprise.com/asx/tompetty_ghigentlyweeps_300-v.asx

  370. chicagofinance says:

    Don Mattingly Says:
    September 30th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
    tcm – fans yell “Yankees Suck” at Shea Stadium too, which I just don’t understand. Talk about an inferiority complex.

    23: I understand it completely. You know that you are somewhere with like minded people, and you can blurt out what you think without having to listen to any retort (kind of like listening to WFAN when Mike and the Mad Dog are hosting).

    Seriously, there are level heading Yankees fans, but there are just too many close-minded idiots or people who buy into all the propaganda spewed by WCBS and al-Yank-zeera (The YES Network).

    Good luck in the next few weeks. You have a rough road to the WS, but I think you will take it to CLE. The ALCS will be a friggin’ brawl.

  371. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear….I think the working assumption with all non-Yankee fans is that “the Yankee fans started it (i.e. everyone except the Yankees suck)”

    I look at it as more defensive than OFFensive…

  372. Don Mattingly says:

    Thanks for the good wishes ChiFi!

    There many obnoxious Yankee fans out there who I am embarrassed to be associated with so I understand what you’re saying.

    I’m reading about the Mets in Daily News online. Some people are calling it the worst choke in history. Sorry, but that honor goes to the 2004 Yankees. I don’t think ANYONE will be able to top that.

    There’s a lot of talent on the Mets … Wright and Reyes haven’t hit their stride yet… wait ’til next year!

  373. Essex says:

    ChiFi…#378…yeah Prince is a genius on the guitar….I shred too….

  374. chicagofinance says:

    Don Mattingly Says:
    September 30th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
    Thanks for the good wishes ChiFi!

    There’s a lot of talent on the Mets … Wright and Reyes haven’t hit their stride yet… wait ’til next year!

    Wright has hit his stride. The NL MVPs are Rollins and Holliday. The next step down are Wright and Fielder. Wright has arrived.

    Reyes took a huge step backward this year. He was stellar until mid-May, but then his bat lost its sting. After August 1, he was almost completely incompetent as a hitter.

    Part of the reason that Randolph needs to be fired is that he never moved Reyes out of the leadoff or benched him. Gutless move for a spineless manager with no leadership skills. The kid need to get pissed off to play better, and Randolph never took away his cookies.

  375. dreamtheaterr says:

    While on the subject of guitars, I was upstate NY yesterday to see Jersey man Al Di Meola perform last night (with Stanley Clarke and Jean-Luc Ponty)…it was amazing stuff.

  376. UnRealtor says:

    No comes UBS — Lehman and Goldman won’t be far behind:

    September 30 2007: 8:27 PM EDT

    (CNNMoney) — UBS, the Swiss bank, is expected to announce Monday a third-quarter loss of 600 million to 700 million Swiss francs ($510 million to $600 million) from its fixed-income unit, according to a published report.

    Partly the fixed-income losses stem from continuing costs associated with writing off bad bets by its in-house hedge fund, Dillon Read Capital Management, in the subprime mortgage market, according to the Wall Street Journal. But other securities held by the fixed-income division contibuted to the loss too, it said.

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/30/news/companies/ubs/index.htm

  377. Clotpoll says:

    BC (351)-

    Not a brain cramp…and not a free ad for NAR. There’s a fundamental misread around these parts on what constitutes gain and loss on RE.

    We have a lot of folks here who know how to avoid loss. However, I don’t know about their ability to take advantage and win. I’m in agreement with all that we have a long way down to go in this market…but I still have the gnawing feeling that precious few have an endgame plan in mind. I hope I’m wrong.

  378. Clotpoll says:

    chifi (359)-

    ‘nuf said.

    Now, it’s time to gamble.

  379. Clotpoll says:

    Un (362)-

    You were gone from here for a while. Things were better without you. Perhaps you could go away again.

    For someone who spent a great deal of time accusing me of straw man arguing, you set up a whopper for yourself.

    However, I’m glad to see your sense of understanding about what’s best for people other than you remains intact.

    Perhaps you should start an advice column.

  380. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (378)-

    Martin Scorsese’s next film is about the life of George Harrison.

    BTW, the Purpleness hates comparisons with Hendrix. He always cites Carlos Santana as his main inspiration.

  381. pretorius says:

    Clotpoll, do you invest in residential real estate?

  382. Clotpoll says:

    ChiFi (384)-

    The scary thing is how often Wright and Reyes brain-cramped (at bat and in the field) down the stretch. In fact, the brain-cramping took over pretty much all of them. Just example after example of bad fundamental play. Failure to advance runners, failure to recognize situtation/score, failure to make the easy play, failure to manage games with the purpose of winning instead of “having the back” of players unworthy of trust.

    My son plays on a good Little League team, with a fine manager who understands the game completely. When my son (all of 9 y/o) started questioning the Mets’ play a couple of weeks ago, I knew it was curtains.

  383. Clotpoll says:

    The Yankees will win the World Series.

    They have addressed all thier deficiencies during the regular season, and I don’t see how any team (including the Sox) can beat them in a best of 5…or 7. The Yankees have jury-rigged a ’96-type team that just needs to get to the 7th with a lead…then turn it over to Vizcaino, Joba, Mariano, et al.

    Best (or, worst) of all, it seems as though the two people calling the shots are- finally- Torre and Cashman. Either through senility or mishap, the Steinbrenner family has no influence or effect at all upon the team.

  384. UnRealtor says:

    You were gone from here for a while. Things were better without you. Perhaps you could go away again.

    What a self-important jackass.

    Get back to name-dropping “famous” chefs, talking about overpriced imported beef, and how you wasted money on therapy.

    But if I had to go through life with a mug like yours, I’d probably be bitter too…

    http://www.chiphughes.com

  385. Clotpoll says:

    Un (396)-

    Evidently, I hit a nerve. It seems whenever I really get to somebody around here, they feel it necessary to “out” me by linking to my website or blog.

    I’ve spent 47 years working around my looks, so that’s a bridge I crossed a long time ago. Nice try.

    As far as “name dropping”? It ain’t name-dropping when you KNOW the people. I used to be in that line of work. I do, however, apologize for discussing meat here. I think it was a slow day when that conversation got started. To anyone else I’ve offended with meat talk…sorry.

    “Wasted money on therapy”? I’ve only had a little therapy in my life, and it was money well-spent. One of the biggest lessons I learned there was how to deal with people like you.

  386. John says:

    NetBank had $109 million in deposit accounts that exceeded the FDIC limit. Those customers will become creditors in NetBank’s receivership, the FDIC said.

    The FDIC has a toll-free number for customers affected by the failure:1-888-256-6932.

  387. John says:

    Actually I did, better long term potential keeping the rif raft in line than being one. Plus it is not how much you make but how sustainable the income is. For instance I would rather make 300K a year doing something that adds value to society where I can make that income for 20 years straight then make 600K chasing the next hot thing which will blow up in my fact eventually. By the way it is not an ethcial thing but people who justify their actions crack me up. When I take a pen home from work I am stealing it. I have no problem stealing the pen. But flippers and day traders like to say they are borrowing the pen. Why rationlize it. The whole concept of real estate is you underpay for the house you buy and then you sell it for more than its worth. Nothing wrong with that. But you can say when you paid three kids in an estate sale 40K less than the house is worth because they used Foxtons or did not properly prepare the house that you helped them. And neither when you find the mexican gardner with a no doc home who buys the house for 40K more than it is worth you helped them. You just helped youself.

    bi Says:
    September 30th, 2007 at 11:55 am
    when you take your current job, do you think because it will help economy?

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