So much for spring?

Posted on January 25, 2026 by grim

From Newsweek:

US housing market gets three bleak signs in first month of 2026

After a year marked by elevated mortgage rates, multifaceted affordability issues and resultingly weak buyer demand, the opening weeks of 2026 have already offered several concerning signals regarding the health of the U.S. housing market.

Experts who spoke with Newsweek say they are cautiously optimistic that conditions could improve compared to 2025, but believe fragility will remain the watchword as broader economic issues continue to weigh on the sector.

According to a report released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the number of homes going under contract unexpectedly plummeted in December—the pending home sales index falling by 9.3 percent compared to a forecast drop of just 0.3 percent.

Some analysts even anticipated a slight gain last month, but the drop to a five-month low marks the steepest slide since April 2020 at the outset of the Covid pandemic. Pending sales declined in all four regions—South, Midwest, Northeast and West—month-over-month, and were down 3 percent nationwide on an annual basis.

“The housing sector is not out of the woods yet,” wrote NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun. “After several months of encouraging signs in pending contracts and closed sales, the December new contract figures have dampened the short-term outlook.”
…
A new analysis from the real estate brokerage Redfin has revealed that there were over 600,000 more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in December, a 47 percent disparity, which marks an all-time high in records going back to 2013.

The gap increased 7.1 percent from November, and was largest in Austin, Texas, as well as in several Florida metros. While providing more leverage to buyers, as Redfin notes, this creates serious difficulty for those now competing to sell their properties to an increasingly shallow pool of prospective homeowners.

Redfin also revealed that the total number of buyers fell 5.9 percent in December to around 1.3 million—the steepest drop since early 2023 and reaching the lowest level since 2013.
…
Many experts have diagnosed the issues with America’s housing market as largely inventory-linked. Despite weak buyer demand and a surplus of sellers, years of sluggish construction and homeowners “locking in” at lower rates have kept prices elevated and pushed supply at least as low demand across much of the U.S.

And recent data reveals that housing inventory growth has slowed dramatically from the summer. According to HousingWire, inventory growth sank to 10 percent on an annual basis in December, down from 33 percent in mid-2025.

“More supply means less price growth and better affordability,” wrote Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, which also found that inventory declined in the opening days of 2026.

“The inventory recovery has slowed meaningfully,” Jones told Newsweek, pointing to data from Realtor.com showing a similar slowdown in growth to just 9.5 percent year over year—the weakest annual gain in nearly two years.

“Limited inventory continues to constrain buyer choice and transaction volume, even as demand remains uneven,” she said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 277 Comments

Not many in the Northeast either

Posted on January 24, 2026 by grim

From FastCompany:

106 housing markets are seeing falling home prices—and not a single one is in the Midwest

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 141 Comments

So much for stabilization

Posted on January 23, 2026 by grim

From Wolf Street:

Pending Home Sales Plunge across the US. Midwest Sees Worst Sales on Record, Northeast 2nd Worst

Pending home sales, which track the number of contracts signed in December, plunged by 9.3% seasonally adjusted from November, to the lowest level for any December on record in the data by the National Association of Realtors, which goes back to 2010. Compared to December 2010, during the Housing Bust, pending sales were down by 21.5%.

The market is now well into its fourth year of the collapse in transactions, and there has simply been no improvement.

Pending home sales compared to the Decembers in prior years (historic data via YCharts):

  • 2024: -3.0% (year-over-year)
  • 2023: -8.1%
  • 2022: -5.9%
  • 2021: -38.2%
  • 2020: -43.2%
  • 2019: -30.6%.
    …
    In the Northeast, pending sales plunged by 11.0% month-to-month, to the second-worst level of sales on record.
  • Compared to the Decembers of prior years:
  • 2024: -3.6% (year-over-year)
  • 2023: -3.5%
  • 2022: -6.0%
  • 2021: -36.5%
  • 2020: -44.5%
  • 2019: -33.9%.
Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 117 Comments

At least it was an honest day’s work…

Posted on January 22, 2026 by grim

From Jersey Digs:

Here’s What’s Next for Newark’s Anheuser-Busch Brewery

The iconic Budweiser eagle taking flight from its perch next to the Turnpike earlier this month is the definitive end of an era in Newark. For more than 75 years, the 87-acre Anheuser-Busch Brewery, with its 15-ton eagle, sat at the nexus of Newark Liberty International Airport, I-95, I-78, and U.S. 1-9, at the heart of the busiest corridors in the country, embodying the cultural and economic heritage of Newark in the 20th Century.

National brands in the beverage industry, including Ballantine, Pabst, Krueger, and Hensler, were among the more than 25 breweries that called the city home in the early 1900s.

When Anheuser-Busch opened its 3.2 million-square-foot facility, it arrived as the beverage industry reached its peak in the city, employing thousands of blue-collar residents from Essex, Hudson and Bergen counties. The brewery opened in 1951 and was the second-largest Anheuser-Busch facility in the country outside of the company’s main brewery in St. Louis, Missouri.

The facility employed more than 500 workers by the time it closed in late 2025. It was the last survivor of its kind in Newark, and the sale of its building and massive campus will give way to data centers and additional light manufacturing space. Multiple sources reported that Goodman Group, an Australia-based global asset management firm with an $86 billion global portfolio of real estate for industrial and data center use, intends to repurpose the brewery to better serve the needs of the modern economy.

Goodman Group invests on behalf of institutional investors, including Canadian pension plans and Australian superfunds. In the Garden State, it is known as the firm that recently purchased the New York Daily News printing plant next to Liberty State Park in Jersey City – a property that it intends to turn into data center space – but the firm also has a substantial industrial footprint in the Meadowlands and in the New York City area.
…
Like the Ballantine brewery in the Ironbound, or the Pabst brewery in Newark’s West Ward, and the former Edison Rail warehouse downtown, the Anheuser-Busch facility represented a moment of economic prosperity in the city’s 360-year-old history. While the data centers may bring a windfall in tax revenue to the city, the repurposing of the facility reflects a visual transition from manufactured goods at the heart of Newark to the digital economy and financial services.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 110 Comments

Who wins, who loses?

Posted on January 20, 2026 by grim

From Business Standard:

Trump heads to Davos to pitch how he’ll make housing more affordable

President Donald Trump plans to use a key address Wednesday to try to convince Americans he can make housing more affordable, but he’s picked a strange backdrop for the speech: a Swiss mountain town where ski chalets for vacations cost a cool $4.4 million.

On the anniversary of his inauguration, Trump is flying to the World Economic Forum in Davos an annual gathering of the global elite where he may see many of the billionaires he has surrounded himself with during his first year back in the White House.

Trump had campaigned on lowering the cost of living, painting himself as a populist while serving fries at a McDonald’s drive-thru. But in office, his public schedules suggest he’s traded the Golden Arches for a gilded age, devoting more time to cavorting with the wealthy than talking directly to his working-class base.

At the end of the day, it’s the investors and billionaires at Davos who have his attention, not the families struggling to afford their bills, said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal think tank.

Trump’s attention in his first year back has been less on pocketbook issues and more fixed on foreign policy with conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and Venezuela. He is now bent on acquiring Greenland to the chagrin of European allies a headline likely to dominate his time in Davos, overshadowing his housing ideas.

Trump noted the Europeans’ resistance, telling reporters Monday night, “Let’s put it this way: It’s going to be a very interesting Davos.

The White House has tried to shift Trump’s focus to affordability issues, a response to warning signs in the polls in a year where control of Congress is at stake in midterm elections.

About six in 10 U.S. adults now say that Trump has hurt the cost of living, according to the latest survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. It’s an issue even among Republicans, who have said Trump’s work on the economy hasn’t lived up to their expectations. Only 16 per cent say Trump has helped a lot on making things more affordable, down from 49 per cent in April 2024, when an AP-NORC poll asked Americans the same question about his first term.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Development, Politics | 244 Comments

Prices Up, Inventory Down

Posted on January 19, 2026 by grim

From InsiderNJ:

New Jersey Realtors Releases Year-End Housing Data

New Jersey’s housing market closed out 2025 with housing prices and buyer demand holding steady, underscoring the resilience of the New Jersey market, according to year-end housing data released by New Jersey Realtors this week.

The median sales price across all property types rose 5.4% to $525,000, with 86,440 closed sales statewide in 2025. The average number of days on market increased 8.3% to 39 days, while the percent of list price received saw a modest 0.7% decline to 101.5%, reflecting a still-competitive environment.

The single-family market posted the strongest gains in median sales price in 2025, rising 6.4% year-over-year to $585,000. Inventory remained limited, with just 8,978 single-family homes for sale statewide in December, a 7.3% decline compared to last year.

Adult communities also experienced notable price growth, with the median sales price increasing 5.7%, or $20,000, to $370,000 for the year. This segment led the market in new inventory, recording nearly an 8% increase in new listings compared to 2024. The number of homes for sale rose 14.4% in December in adult communities, as well.

The townhouse and condominium market saw more modest appreciation, as the median sales price rose 2.9% year-over-year to $422,000.

Across all property types, pending and closed sales remained relatively steady, moving only a few percentage points in either direction and signaling a market that maintained similar overall activity levels to the prior year.

Competition and limited supply continued to define New Jersey’s housing market, setting it apart from national trends. Homes sold at or above list price on average, with single-family properties receiving 102.2% of list price and spending just over 37 days on the market, well below pre-pandemic norms. Inventory remained tight, with a two-month supply of homes statewide, reinforcing seller confidence and supporting continued price stability.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 43 Comments

Endgame?

Posted on January 17, 2026 by grim

From New Jersey Digest:

Jersey City Is No Longer a Stepping Stone to NYC: Realtors Say Buyers Are Staying Put

For years, Jersey City played a familiar role in the New York real estate ecosystem. It was the place people landed when Manhattan rents became unbearable—a temporary solution, a compromise, a few PATH stops away from where they actually wanted to be.

That framing no longer holds.

According to local realtors and market data, Jersey City has shifted from a stopgap into something more permanent. Buyers and renters aren’t just passing through on their way back to New York. Increasingly, they’re staying.

“Jersey City is definitely an endgame for most residents,” said Leilani Chin, Broker-Associate at Corcoran Sawyer Smith. “Once you get used to the amount of space and ‘little luxuries’ like in-unit washer/dryer, dishwasher, outdoor space and sometimes parking, it’s hard to give that up to live in NYC and pay even more.”

Space remains the clearest divider. At comparable price points, Jersey City apartments often offer 30 to 50 percent more square footage than similar units in Manhattan. That difference shows up in real ways: dining areas that aren’t multipurpose, home offices that don’t double as bedrooms, closets that actually store things, and appliances Manhattan renters still treat as upgrades.

For families, the gap widens further. Three-bedroom apartments that routinely cost $7,000 to $10,000 a month in Manhattan often land between $3,500 and $5,000 in Jersey City. The savings are substantial, but so is the tradeoff in livability.

Remote and hybrid work has only accelerated that calculation. With many professionals commuting into Manhattan two or three days a week instead of five, the PATH ride feels less like a burden and more like a manageable routine. Being close enough for work, but far enough to gain space, has become the sweet spot.

Posted in Demographics, Gold Coast, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 73 Comments

Tick Tick Tick

Posted on January 16, 2026 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

U.S., N.J. foreclosure activity increased in 2025

ATTOM, a curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, said Jan. 15 foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 367,460 U.S. properties in 2025, up 14% from 2024 and an increase of 3% from 2023. 

New Jersey was one of the top 10 states with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025 and had the highest foreclosure rate of any state in December 2025. Atlantic City was among the 225 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025.

The properties with foreclosure filings in 2025 represented 0.26% of all U.S. housing units, up from 0.23% in 2024. ATTOM said even though foreclosure activity has risen, it is significantly below pre-pandemic levels and far below peaks seen during the last housing crisis.

“Foreclosure activity increased in 2025, reflecting a continued normalization of the housing market following several years of historically low levels,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While filings, starts, and repossessions all rose compared to 2024, foreclosure activity remains well below pre-pandemic norms and a fraction of what we saw during the last housing crisis. The data suggests that today’s uptick is being driven more by market recalibration than widespread homeowner distress, with strong equity positions and more disciplined lending continuing to limit risk.”
…
States with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025 were Florida (one in every 230 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Delaware (one in every 240 housing units); South Carolina (one in every 242 housing units); Illinois (one in every 248 housing units); and Nevada (one in every 248 housing units).

Rounding out the top 10 states with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025, were New Jersey (one in every 273 housing units); Indiana (one in every 302 housing units); Ohio (one in every 307 housing units); Texas (one in every 319 housing units); and Maryland (one in every 326 housing units).

Among 225 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the worst foreclosure rates in 2025 were Lakeland, Fla. (one in every 145 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Columbia, S.C. (one in every 165 housing units); Cleveland (one in every 187 housing units); Cape Coral, Fla. (one in every 189 housing units); and Atlantic City (one in every 192 housing units).

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 79 Comments

Digging ditches never looked better

Posted on January 15, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

College debt crushing NJ families? Skilled trades are the lifeline

For decades, American parents were told that sending their kids to a four-year college was non-negotiable. Baby Boomers and Gen Xers were convinced that higher education was the only path to success.

Suburban culture reinforced this notion: if your child didn’t go to college, something must be “wrong” with your family.

Millennials and Gen Z inherited this expectation, often pressured to enroll in college without fully considering the cost, career outcomes, or alternatives.

Today, I question whether a traditional four-year degree is truly worth it. While a degree can offer higher lifetime earnings, greater economic stability, and access to broader career paths, these benefits are far from guaranteed.

Recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that the median return on investment for a bachelor’s degree is about 12.5%, and graduates often enjoy a “wage premium” over high-school-only workers.

For majors in high-demand fields like engineering, computer science, or math, the ROI can be substantial.

Beyond dollars, college provides knowledge, networks, and credentials that can open doors in professions requiring critical thinking or formal education.

Yet for many, college is increasingly a gamble.

Tuition, fees, and room and board can saddle students with decades of debt. Opportunity costs—the wages foregone while studying—add to the financial burden.

Not all degrees pay off: majors in some liberal arts, humanities, or oversaturated fields can leave graduates struggling to find employment that justifies the cost.

Many students graduate only to take jobs that don’t require a degree at all, delaying financial independence, homeownership, and family formation.

Some studies show it can take years—even decades—for a degree to “break even,” if it ever does.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 130 Comments

The new guard

Posted on January 14, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Gov. Murphy bids farewell after 8 tumultuous years. N.J. is ‘stronger and fairer.’ 

Gov. Phil Murphy gave a celebratory goodbye speech to New Jersey on Tuesday, painting his administration as one that brought big changes despite tumult — and lived up to his sweeping campaign slogan from eight years ago.

“Together, we have built a New Jersey that is stronger and fairer than ever before,” the 68-year-old Democrat said in his final State of the State address, recalling his longtime pledge to make his adopted home state both those things.

“We were who we said we’d be — and we did what we said we’d do.”

Speaking to an audience of officials and dignitaries at the Statehouse in Trenton a week before he’s set to leave office, Murphy touted what he sees as the major moments of his two terms as the Garden State’s 56th governor. 

That included managing the uncertainty of COVID-19 and installing progressive policies that pushed the state decidedly leftward — while still reshaping the state’s economy, he argued.

Murphy also said his administration pushed back against Republican President Donald Trump’s “attack” on democracy and immigration.

And he thanked Jerseyans for “joining me in this journey to ensure we leave our children a state that is better than we found it.”

Term-limited Murphy delivered the roughly hour-and-a-half, 7,300-word speech as he prepares to hand the state’s torch to Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill, a fellow Democrat who will take office next Tuesday after easily winninglast year’s election to succeed him. It will mark the first time since 1961 that one party has held the governor’s office in New Jersey for three straight terms.

Democrats also strengthened their grip on Trenton’s lawmaking body. Hours before Murphy’s speech, the state Assembly class of the 222nd New Jersey Legislature was sworn in — including 12 new members, all Democrats, five of whom who ousted Republican incumbents.

The party now has a 24-seat advantage in the lower chamber, on top of its control of the state Senate. It’s Democrats’ biggest Assembly majority since 1974, when Watergate upended Republicans.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 133 Comments

Don’t bother, you can’t afford it

Posted on January 13, 2026 by grim

From National Mortgage Professional:

Home Prices Continue To Outpace Wages, Keeping Affordability Under Pressure

ATTOM’s Q4 Home Affordability Report paints a picture of persistent strain for prospective homebuyers across the U.S., even as modest improvements emerged late in the year. The Irvine, California-based analytics firm found that in 99% of the 594 counties analyzed, median-priced single-family homes and condos remained less affordable than historical norms, continuing a multi-quarter trend of affordability challenges. 

While the national median home price held near a record high of approximately $365,185, typical wage growth continued to lag behind, constraining buying power for many households. Over the past five years, home prices rose about 54%, compared with a 29% increase in typical wages, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data used in the report. 

Despite these pressures, indicators in Q4 pointed to slight relief. In 86% of counties, homes were more affordable than in Q3 of 2025, a shift attributed in part to modestly lower mortgage rates. Average interest on a 30-year fixed mortgage (FRM) fell from roughly 6.34% in early October to about 6.15% by year-end.

“Many Americans were priced out of buying a home in 2025, and affordability remains worse than historic norms in most markets,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “Still, modest, quarter-over-quarter affordability improvements in many markets at the end of the year offered some encouragement. Over the past five years, home price growth has nearly doubled wage growth, meaning home buying power in 2026 will depend not only on whether prices level off or decline, but also on mortgage rates and broader economic conditions.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble | 82 Comments

Time to cash in

Posted on January 11, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

New Jersey Airbnb hosts charging $17K for weekend stays during the World Cup Final this summer

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final approaches, a small cluster of Airbnb listings near MetLife Stadium in New Jersey is testing how much fans will pay to stay close to the action.

Seven short-term rentals within a five- to 20-minute walk of the stadium — located in East Rutherford — are currently listed between $13,000 and nearly $17,000 for three nights over the July 17 to 20 championship weekend. The properties range from apartments to single-family homes — and are largely marketed toward group stays, emphasizing walkability, parking and sleeping capacity rather than luxury finishes.

The pricing stands out even within a region accustomed to major event surges, reflecting the scale of demand expected for the World Cup Final, which will cap a monthlong tournament hosted in cities across North America.

The most expensive Airbnb listings identified near the stadium share a similar profile: multi-bedroom layouts, free parking and accommodations designed for friends and families traveling together.

One two-bedroom, one-bath apartment listed for a cool $14,533 advertises sleeping for up to six guests, a game room and two parking spaces. Should six soccer fans want to cram into this perch, it would cost some $2,400 apiece for the stay.

Another two-bedroom apartment, priced at $13,797, highlights Manhattan skyline views, a balcony overlooking MetLife Stadium and the American Dream complex, plus transit access into New York City.

At the upper end of the range, a one-bedroom, one-bath home listed for $16,074 includes a queen bed, a pull-out sofa and a fully equipped kitchen — while a larger house listed for $14,590 features multiple queen beds and a private home theater. A three-bedroom apartment asking a high $16,125 emphasizes sleeping capacity, laundry, parking and proximity to nearby attractions.

The listings are positioned less as luxury accommodations and more as logistical conveniences for fans seeking to remain near the stadium throughout the weekend.

Posted in Gold Coast, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 133 Comments

Will it?

Posted on January 9, 2026 by grim

From CBS News:

Trump says he wants government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds in a push to bring down mortgage rates

President Trump said on social media Thursday that he is directing the federal government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, a move he argued would help reduce mortgage rates at a time when Americans are worried about home prices.

Mr. Trump and the White House have been trying to show they are responding to voter concerns about affordability ahead of midterm elections in November. Home prices have generally risen faster than incomes because of a persistent construction shortfall, making it harder for renters to buy their first home and for existing owners to upgrade to a new property — a challenge that dates back to Mr. Trump’s first term and the recovery from the housing market collapse that triggered the global financial crisis in 2008.

Mr. Trump last month said he planned to unveil housing reforms — and on Wednesday, he announced that he wants to block institutional investors from buying houses.

The president said Thursday that the two mortgage giants under government conservatorship, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have $200 billion in cash that will be used to make the mortgage bond purchases.

“This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” he posted on Truth Social.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Politics | 218 Comments

Private equity out of housing?

Posted on January 8, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

Trump says U.S. to ban large investors from buying homes

President Donald Trump said the U.S. should bar large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans.

“For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday.

“It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,” he added.

Private equity giants, real estate investment trusts and other large institutional investors have amassed sizable portfolios of single-family rental homes over the past decade. Many have argued that these investments have reduced housing supply for would-be homeowners and helped drive up prices. 

Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%.
…
Blackstone was the largest private-equity owner of apartments in the U.S. with more than 230,000 units, according to data from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project released last year. Blackstone in recent years has spent billions acquiring real estate companies such as Tricon Residential, American Campus Communities and AIR Communities.

Trump did not provide details on how such a ban would be implemented. Trump said he plans to outline additional housing and affordability proposals during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in two weeks.

Senator Tim Scott, head of the committee overseeing housing in the Senate, said while he embraced Trump’s push for affordability, the better way to go forward would be his bipartisan “ROAD to Housing” bill.

“2026 must be the year we get housing affordability right for working families. I welcome President Trump’s desire to look for ways to create more homeowners, especially first-time homeowners,” Scott said in a statement to CNBC’s Emily Wilkins. “My focus is on advancing meaningful solutions that expand housing supply and lower costs — including building on our unanimously passed ROAD to Housing Act — because that’s how we make the American Dream more attainable.”

Posted in Crisis, National Real Estate, New Development, Politics | 223 Comments

Back to Work

Posted on January 7, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

Manhattan office leasing in the fourth quarter was the strongest in 6 years

Office leasing in Manhattan surged substantially higher in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by continued return-to-office and increased tech hiring, especially for artificial intelligence.

Leasing increased by more than 25% from the third quarter to 11.87 million square feet, according to Colliers. Demand was 16% higher year over year, close to 52% above the five-year quarterly average and 43.5% above the 10-year average.

It was the island’s strongest single quarter of leasing since the fourth quarter of 2019, Colliers found. For all of 2025, leasing volume was the highest since 2019 and just 2.4% below 2019′s pre-pandemic total. 

“Manhattan’s strong performance in 2025 was not out of the blue, but was instead the continuation of a recovery that we began to feel in 2024,” said Frank Wallach, executive managing director for New York research and business development at Colliers.

“Demand in 2025 was a continuation of that trend, though greatly accelerated by factors such as tenant flight to quality to attract and retain talent, return-to-office trend implementation, sizeable expansions by major tenants – such as Amazon, NYU and BlackRock – and the emerging AI industry leasing space throughout Manhattan,” he said.

Wallach also noted an uptick in demand from various industries, including finance, tech, legal, education, medical nonprofit and government. 

The supply of available office space is still much higher, up nearly 37%, than it was at the start of the pandemic in March 2020, but much lower than the post-pandemic peak in February 2024, according to Colliers. As demand rises, the oversupply is slowly being absorbed, and Manhattan now has the tightest supply since November 2020.

Tighter supply is helping to finally boost rents. Manhattan’s average asking rent was 1.5% higher in Q4 than the previous quarter and, at $76 per square foot, was Manhattan’s highest average since October 2020, Colliers found. For the highest level, so-called Class A product, which is newer construction, the average asking rent increased 1.6% to $83 per square foot, Colliers said. 

Class B office product is older but tends to be in good locations. It is now seeing landlords invest in upgrades and renovations as demand increases. That helped rents in Q4 grow 1.1% to a record high of $68.61 per square foot, according to Colliers. 

There continues to be a flight to quality, with 69% of all leased space in four- and five-star buildings, up from 66% in 2024, according to a separate report from CoStar. It found that every one of the 15 largest office leases signed during the year took place in four- or five-star properties. For example, Deloitte’s 800,000-square-foot commitment at 70 Hudson Yards, a premiere Manhattan office building, was the largest lease of the year.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate, New Development, NYC | 159 Comments