The 50y mortgage in one chart

Posted on November 17, 2025 by grim

From Sherwood, hat tip Ritholtz:

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, Risky Lending | 47 Comments

A little bit of fraud makes the market go round

Posted on November 15, 2025 by grim

From National Mortgage Professional:

As Home Prices Slip, Mortgage Fraud Risk Intensifies

As rates ease and overall mortgage applications have risen 8% from Q2 2025 to Q3 2025, Cotality took a deeper look at mortgage fraud risk instances nationwide in Q3 in its latest National Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index. The results … fraud is up year-over-year, with instances of undisclosed real estate fraud leading the way. 

Overall, Cotality found that mortgage fraud risk rose 8.2% year-over-year in Q3, however, it dropped by 2.7% from Q2 of 2025. The report found an estimated one in 118 mortgage applications had indications of fraud within them.

For their breakdown, Cotality examined six areas of mortgage fraud and found an increase in only one area — undisclosed real estate fraud. This category of fraud increased 9.1% year-over-year. Undisclosed real estate fraud includes undisclosed debt, possible occupancy misrepresentation, and/or derogatory credit events (foreclosure, NOD, short sale, etc.) being hidden from the lender.

The rise in undisclosed real estate fraud could be due to an increase in investors and more being forced to rent due to higher home prices and mortgage rates still exceeding the 6%-mark.  

“Undisclosed real estate was once again the fraud segment with the highest increase,” said Matt Seguin, senior principal with Cotality Fraud Solutions. “As the percentage of investors grows, more borrowers have multiple properties and mortgages. Oftentimes, those mortgages are being refinanced simultaneously, and they may be with different lenders. This could be why we’re seeing a continuing uptick in undisclosed real estate debt.”

Cotality’s system for warning about falling property values has seen a large increase in alerts, jumping 42% in the last quarter and 400% compared to a year ago. Cotality’s Home Price Index confirms prices are dropping across much of the U.S as inventory increases.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, Risky Lending | 88 Comments

No problems, nothing to see here

Posted on November 14, 2025 by grim

From Mortgage Orb:

Foreclosure Starts, REOs Continued to Rise in October

There were 25,129 foreclosure starts nationwide in October, an increase of 6% compared with September and up 20% compared with October 2024, according to ATTOM’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.

States that had the greatest number of foreclosure starts in October included Florida (4,136), Texas (3,080), California (2,685), Illinois (1,252) and New York (1,165).

Looking at all foreclosure filings – including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions – a total of 36,766 U.S. properties saw foreclosure actions, up 3% from last month ago and up 19% from a year ago.

“Foreclosure activity continued its steady upward trend in October, the eighth straight month of year-over-year increases,” says Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM, in the report. “Starts rose nearly 20 percent, while completed foreclosures were up 32 percent from last year.”

“Even with these increases, activity remains well below historic highs,” Barber says. “The current trend appears to reflect a gradual normalization in foreclosure volumes as market conditions adjust and some homeowners continue to navigate higher housing and borrowing costs.”

Nationwide, one in every 3,871 housing units had a foreclosure filing in October 2025. States with the worst foreclosure rates were Florida, South Carolina, Illinois, Delaware and Nevada.

Among the U.S. cities with populations of 1 million or more, Tampa, Fla., posted the highest foreclosure rate in October, at one in every 1,373 housing units. The increase reflects a temporary spike caused by the resumption of data collection in Hillsborough County, which added backlogged records and is expected to normalize in November.

Following Tampa were Jacksonville, Fla. (one in every 1,576 housing units); Orlando, Fla. (one in every 1,703); Riverside, Calif. (one in every 1,983); and Cleveland, Ohio (one in every 2,114).

Posted in Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 81 Comments

Ain’t the same market anymore

Posted on November 13, 2025 by grim

From USA Today:

It’s not a seller’s housing market anymore. Some sellers don’t agree.

After a stretch of several years in which the housing market has felt anything but normal, buyers, sellers and real estate agents are now adjusting to a frustrating new reality.

It’s not quite a buyer’s market, as most buyers would be quick to agree. But neither is it a seller’s market. The only problem is, most sellers haven’t gotten the memo.

“I think there’s a backlog of homeowners who saw their neighbors getting, you know, 5 or 10 or 20% over asking price, selling in a weekend, having 40 showings a day, and they want that for themselves, but we’re never going to see that again,” said Maura Neill, a real estate agent with RE/MAX Around Atlanta.

Unfortunately, many of those somewhat unrealistic sellers have no trouble finding agents who can’t – or won’t – break the bad news to them.

“I think that some of my colleagues are willing, whether through inexperience or fear, to overprice to get the listing with the hopes that either an offer will miraculously come or that the seller will see the light and do a big price reduction,” Neill said.

Real estate agents around the country describe similar patterns.

“I’ve described it as a standoff market where sellers still feel that it should be a seller’s market, and buyers feel that it should be a buyer’s market. In consequence, it’s nobody’s market,” said Joan Rogers, an associate principal broker with Windermere Realty Trust in Portland, Oregon. “We’re just all staring at each other over a barbed wire fence, and that accomplishes nothing.”

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 76 Comments

NYers can’t afford Mamdani’s City.

Posted on November 11, 2025 by grim

From Fox News:

New Yorkers hunt for homes outside the city as living costs soar

High taxes, surging rents and the overall increase in cost-of-living expenses are causing some New Yorkers to search for a new home outside the Big Apple.

But, they aren’t necessarily moving far away.

Economists at Realtor.com identified the top destinations that had the most interest among people living in all five boroughs – Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx and Staten Island. The data analysis covers the third quarter of 2025, from July through September, before Zohran Mamdani won the city’s mayoral election.

New York state, New Jersey and Pennsylvania were among the top states that had the most viewed listings on Realtor.com.

New York state, excluding the city, drew the most attention from New Yorkers, accounting for just more than 14% of out-of-city listing views. New Jersey followed closely at 12.9%, according to the data. Pennsylvania narrowly edged out Florida, making up 10.7% of views. Meanwhile, Florida listings accounted for 10.4%.

The data showed that the trends are driven in large part by affordability. Realtor.com senior analyst Hannah Jones told FOX Business that sky-high rents and home prices are driving many residents of the Big Apple to look beyond the city limits in their search for homeownership. 

“Recent home-shopping activity suggests that buyers are seeking more space and value for their money, while still wanting to remain within reach of the economic and cultural core that New York represents,” Jones said. 

Jones also said the growing prevalence of remote and hybrid work has also aided their search, allowing more New Yorkers to live farther from the city center without sacrificing job access. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Unrest | 133 Comments

Average home buyer age? 59

Posted on November 10, 2025 by grim

From NPR:

Many would-be buyers are frozen out of the housing market

First-time homebuyers are getting older. So much so, the National Association of Realtors had to scrap the photo it was planning to use on the cover of a new report. 

“The original cover had a very cute, young couple who was expecting, and I said, ‘That’s not going to work,'” says Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist for the Realtors’ association. “We’re not seeing young couples, unfortunately, so it didn’t match.” 

Instead, the Realtors went with photo showing a couple near retirement age — more representative of the average buyer’s age, 59, in today’s high-priced market. Among first-time buyers, the average age was 40 — an all-time high.

First-time buyers accounted for only about one in five homes sold during the 12 months ending in June. That’s a record low and half the share of first-time buyers a generation ago. 

“It shows some real problems in the housing market that need to be addressed,” Lautz says. “When we look at the lack of inventory for young adults to be able to purchase what ends up being their biggest financial asset and to bring them into the housing ladder, we have work to do.” 

Eve Burdick and husband Cael just celebrated their first wedding anniversary. They’re both 30 years old, and at the stage of life when they’d like to be shopping for their first home. But even though home prices in Minneapolis, where they live, are below the national average, everything they look at is far beyond their price range, or needs more fixing up than the couple could afford.

Posted in General | 99 Comments

Game Changer

Posted on November 9, 2025 by grim

From the Washington Examiner:

Trump administration ‘working on’ 50-year mortgage to boost housing affordability

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte announced on Saturday that his agency is actively working to introduce a 50-year mortgage term, a move that comes as President Donald Trump is grappling with the public’s concerns about affordability.

Trump recently blasted the issue of affordability as a “con job” after Republicans suffered widespread losses in the 2025 midyear elections because of Democrats’ messaging on it. Despite it stoking his ire, the president is reportedly planning to discuss the issue much more frequently, evident in his recent press conferenceannouncing discounted prices for obesity drugs.

Trump only seemed to continue his focus on the issue at the start of the weekend. On Saturday, he posted a graphic teasing a 50-year mortgage term. The image, titled “Great American Presidents,” has former President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Trump side by side and under the titles “30-Year Mortgage” and “50-Year Mortgage,” respectively.

Pulte later confirmed that the administration is “working on” a potential 50-year mortgage term to boost housing affordability, calling it a “complete game changer.”

Trump’s nod to Roosevelt lines up with his desire for an even longer mortgage term.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, Risky Lending | 35 Comments

No Bubble?

Posted on November 8, 2025 by grim

From MarketWatch:

Home prices are overinflated in many parts of the U.S. Are we in a housing bubble?

Many housing markets in the U.S. are way overvalued, but don’t mistake the current environment for a housing bubble, economists say.

Home prices are rising to new heights. In September, the median sales price of an existing home rose to $415,200, the highest figure for that month, according to the National Association of Realtors, since the group began tracking the data.

Yet home sales have largely remained depressed. High interest rates impede home buying and home construction, a persistent lock-in effect has resulted in homeowners clinging to their 3% mortgage rates instead of selling, and sellers would rather delist their home than drop their asking price.

Against this backdrop, is the housing market in a bubble? And if it is, when will the bubble pop? 

Housing bubbles happen when home prices shoot up due to high demand and speculation. When the bubble pops, demand falls sharply and supply increases, which then causes a big drop in prices. Homeowners see negative equity in their homes as they owe more on their mortgage than the actual value of their home. They may also potentially face foreclosure.

But don’t panic: There isn’t really a housing bubble, economists tell MarketWatch. 

“Do I think the party’s over? Yes,” Ken Johnson, a professor of finance and real estate at the University of Mississippi, told MarketWatch. “I just don’t think we’re going to have a crash.”

Housing is also hyperlocal, meaning that even though some markets may be overvalued, others may be seeing sharp price declines due to specific conditions such as a high number of listings. 

“It’s really hard with housing to make generalized statements,” Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp., told MarketWatch. “It wasn’t too long [ago] when the big discussion was about when housing was in a recession. Now it’s about if housing is in a bubble.” 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 51 Comments

It’s better here

Posted on November 7, 2025 by grim

From MPA:

Inventory surge cools US home prices, but Northeast markets stay strong: Cotality

Home prices across the United States continued to lose steam in September as inventory reached its highest level since 2019, according to new data from Cotality.

The firm’s Home Price Index showed national year-over-year price growth slowing to just 1.2%, down from 2.7% in September 2024 and well below the double-digit gains seen during the pandemic boom. 

The number of homes for sale jumped 15% year-over-year, marking the largest increase in six years and giving buyers more options, but also putting downward pressure on prices.

The national median home price stood at $395,000, while the income required to afford a median-priced home hit $90,100—underscoring the affordability challenge for many buyers.

“Much like the K-shaped trend seen in overall consumer spending—driven largely by higher income groups—lower-income potential homebuyers are facing challenges due to an uncertain job market, sluggish wage growth, and worsening financial conditions. This is leading to weaker demand for homes and downward pressure on prices,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality’s chief economist.

While the national picture points to cooling, the Northeast continues to stand out. Connecticut and New Jersey led the country in annual price growth, with both states posting gains in the high single digits.

“Major Northeastern metro areas such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia remain resilient thanks to sectors like finance, biotech, healthcare, and education. Strong and diversified local job markets continue to draw high-earning professionals and give them the income stability needed to purchase expensive homes,” Hepp said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 77 Comments

No Fresh Meat

Posted on November 6, 2025 by grim

From MSN:

America’s first-time homebuyers are disappearing. That’s bad news for real estate.

By the time she turned 40, Suzie Payne had resigned herself to the fact that she would never be able to buy a home.

While her friends spent their 30s checking off that prized milestone — often with help from their parents — Payne struggled to save money while raising a daughter on her own. Home prices in Portland, Oregon, where she lived, felt out of reach long before the pandemic hit. Then Payne lost her job. When mortgage rates plummeted in the summer of 2020, she was more worried about meeting her basic needs than spending her Saturdays staking out open houses.
…
Things have been headed in this direction for a few years now — older, deep-pocketed buyers are better equipped to handle the double whammy of higher borrowing rates and costlier homes. Gen Xers and baby boomers remain active in the real estate market, while the share of purchases by first-time buyers has dwindled. But never before has the divide appeared so stark. This delayed timeline could have lifelong consequences for today’s young people: years of missed wealth-building opportunities, fewer moves, even a reevaluation of what constitutes a “starter home.” Welcome to the age of the geriatric homebuyer.

The typical first-time homebuyer was just 29 when the NAR began tracking the median age in 1981. The metric edged slightly higher in the four decades that followed, never ticking past 33. Then, between mid-2021 and mid-2022, it spiked to 36. There was a bit of cope around the sudden jump. Maybe it was just elder millennials — long labeled as laggards since graduating into the Great Recession — finally catching up. But even that cohort felt squeezed. Mortgage rates had more than doubled, homes were more expensive, and new construction after the Great Recession had failed to keep pace with the surge of young buyers. I talked to one millennial back then who framed the scenario in bleak terms: “We’re royally screwed.”

Things have only gotten worse. First-time buyers accounted for a record-low 21% of home purchases last year, NAR data shows — roughly half of the historical average. The entry-level buyer has been effectively “removed from this housing market,” Jessica Lautz, the NAR’s deputy chief economist, tells me.

“We have a very large young-adult population who are really just seeing the door shut on them for homeownership,” Lautz says. “I think it speaks to the gridlock that we’ve seen in the housing market.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 153 Comments

Flip flop

Posted on November 5, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

Democrats flip 6 N.J. counties back to blue, cementing Sherrill’s sweep for governor

Six counties that voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 presidial election have flipped blue, early election results show, helping to cement Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s victory for governor of New Jersey. Five of those counties also backed Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the 2021 gubernatorial election. 

Gloucester, Cumberland, Atlantic, Morris, Passaic and Hunterdon are all backing Sherill as of 10 p.m. on Election Night, Associated Press vote results show. 

The Associated Press called the race for Sherrill, a Congresswoman from Morris County, around 9:30 p.m. on Election Night. She will be the second woman, and first Democrat woman, to lead New Jersey.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 133 Comments

Hollowing Out

Posted on November 4, 2025 by grim

From Fortune:

Both subprime and super prime loans are on the rise, signs of a K-shaped economy that is a ‘prescription for real trouble’

The share of consumers taking out the riskiest form of loans has reached its highest peak this decade, a sign of growing financial stress for many Americans.

The share of consumers taking on subprime loans accounted for 14.4% of borrowers in 2025’s third quarter, up from 13.9% from the same period in 2024 and the highest since 2019, according to a TransUnion report released Monday, which analyzes consumer credit data. About 25% of the U.S. population has a FICO credit score below 660, meaning they are subprime, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk, citing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The share of consumers in the subprime credit risk category fell during the pandemic as government stimulus helped many Americans pay down their debt. But as the subprime tier swells once more, it adds to signs that many are facing increased financial pressure: The percentage of subprime borrowers at least 60 days late on auto loan payments has reached 6.43%, double what it was in 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. Per property data firm ATTOM, August marked the sixth straight month of year-over-year rising home foreclosure filings.

But the struggles of many borrowers don’t tell the full story. TransUnion also reported a growing share of super prime borrowers—which increased from 37.1% in 2019’s third quarter to 40.9% in the same period this year. The credit market has also expanded, growing the number of super prime borrowers by 16 million since 2019. These borrowers have higher credit scores and are likely to get more favorable loan terms, such as lower loan interest rates and higher credit limits.

Additionally, consumer-level delinquencies declined seven basic points year over year to 2.37%, indicating strengthening consumer credit health, the report noted.

“We are seeing a divergence in consumer credit risk, with more individuals moving toward either end of the credit risk spectrum,” Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services for TransUnion, said in the report. “This shift suggests that while many consumers are navigating the current economic climate well, others may be facing financial strain.” 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 131 Comments

Dallas bank forecloses, skips step called “checking for dead people”

Posted on November 3, 2025 by grim

From WIFR:

New homeowner finds body in house shortly after buying property at auction, police say

Residents in one Texas community are expressing regret over not doing more to check on a neighbor who was found dead inside her home.

The Homes of Addison Place are a group of townhomes built in 1983.

A unit on Planters Row was sold at a Dallas County foreclosure auction on Tuesday.

Sixty-nine-year-old Pauline Williams was listed as the owner in default of her bank loan.

But police say that when the new owner who bought the house at the auction went to the property for the first time on Wednesday, they found the mailbox full, the side yard overgrown with weeds and Williams’ body in the living room just feet from the front door.

“Very regrettable that I and my neighbors didn’t check on her,” Gary McIntyre said.

McIntyre lives next to the home, while Austin Mathews lives down the street.

“Reminds me to check on my neighbors a little bit more frequently and just try to be friendly and hope that doesn’t happen to you one day,” Mathews said.

It’s not yet known how long Williams had been dead or how a foreclosure proceeded so quickly without someone trying to physically contact her or knock on the door before the home was sold at auction.

County officials have not provided any additional details and the loan companies involved have not responded to a request for comment.

The Dallas County Medical Examiner’s Office is continuing to determine how, and how long ago, the woman died.

“Just regrettable that we were not being good neighbors,” McIntyre added.

Posted in Foreclosures, National Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 52 Comments

Home Thieves

Posted on November 1, 2025 by grim

From nj.com:

Realty company to pay $2.8 million settlement over predatory homeowner agreements

A Florida-based company agreed to pay $2.8 million to settle allegations it preyed on more than 1,200 struggling New Jersey homeowners, forcing them into “unconscionable” financial agreements, officials with the state Attorney General’s Office said. 

The Attorney General’s Office filed a civil lawsuit in 2023 accusing the company of violating the state’s Consumer Fraud Protection Act by making unsolicited telemarketing calls to New Jersey homeowners with financial struggles during the Covid-19 pandemic without being registered as telemarketers and binding homeowners into predatory lending terms, officials said.

The company, MV Realty, offered the residents quick access to cash through so-called Homeowner Benefit Agreements between $500 and $5,000, officials said. 

MV Realty offered the money upfront under an agreement to serve as their future real estate agency, officials said. 

Homeowners were told by the company that the money was not a loan, and that there was “no obligation” to pay the money back to the company, officials said. 

The company failed to disclose that the program operated as a high-interest mortgage loan with a 40-year contract term, that a lien was placed on their home, and that the agreement was binding on the homeowner’s heirs, officials said. 

The company also failed to disclose early termination fees if the property was listed with another real estate agent, the title was transferred to a family member, heirs tried to sell the home or the homeowners tried to cancel the deal, officials said. 

Authorities said 140 people paid early termination fees between $575 and $42,000 to get out of the deals.

Posted in Mortgages, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending, Unrest | 27 Comments

Wouldn’t go that far..

Posted on October 31, 2025 by grim

From the Daily Mail:

Panic as home values plummet in half of the biggest US cities

Nearly half of America’s biggest cities are now seeing home prices fall — a sign that cracks are spreading through the once-booming housing market. 

Across the US, the cost of a single-family home rose just 1.5 percent in August compared with a year earlier, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index. 

That marks a slowdown from July’s 1.7 percent increase — and the weakest annual growth since 2023, when soaring mortgage rates and poor affordability briefly sent prices into reverse.  

Of the 20 major metros tracked by Case-Shiller, nine recorded outright price declines, while 13 rose more slowly than the national average. 

‘August’s data shows US home prices continuing to slow,’ Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told Realtor.com. 

‘For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.’ 

Florida and Texas were hit hardest. Tampa saw the steepest drop — down 3.3 percent year-on-year — and has now notched 10 straight months of falling prices.  

The city, along with others across Florida, is now officially a buyer’s markets. 
…
‘Regionally, markets in the Northeast and Midwest continue to perform relatively better, supported by tighter resale supply and steadier demand,’ said Smith. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 113 Comments