Who is better for housing?

Posted on November 5, 2024 by grim

From Mansion Global:

Housing Was a Factor for About 40% of Early Voters in the U.S. Presidential Election

For U.S. adults who voted in the presidential election by Nov. 1, about two in five said the housing market was a factor in their decision, according to a report from Redfin on Monday.

Of the 1,002 early voters surveyed, 38% said housing affordability affected their choice for president, while 40% said it was a factor in their local races. 

Kamala Harris voters were more likely to cite housing affordability as a concern than Donald Trump voters, with 43% of early Harris voters reporting that it impacted their decision, compared with 29% of Trump voters who said the same.

Homes in blue areas of the U.S. tend to be much more expensive than red areas, which is likely a reason why Harris voters were more concerned with the housing market than Trump voters, according to Redfin. 

Of the 14 issues Redfin surveyed early voters about, housing affordability ranked 12th, having more weight than only climate change (36% of voters said it was a factor) and access to gender affirming care (19%). 

The economy was the top concern among those who already voted, with 63% saying it impacted their choice for president. Inflation was No. 2 at 59%, followed by protecting democracy (56%). 

About one-third of the survey respondents believe mortgage rates will fall if Trump is elected, while 23% think they’ll drop if Harris is elected. Additionally, 32% think rates will increase under a Harris presidency, while 28% believe they’d rise if Trump wins. 

Posted in National Real Estate, Politics | 130 Comments

Make me move

Posted on November 4, 2024 by grim

From CNET:

Most Homebuyers Won’t Budge Until Mortgage Rates Drop to 4%, CNET Survey Finds

A recent CNET survey found that half of US adults say lower mortgage rates would make them realistically consider purchasing a house. If average mortgage rates were to fall to 4% or below, that rate could potentially unlock the housing market.

Except bargain mortgage rates aren’t likely in the near term. And experts say it would take a severe economic downturn for mortgage rates to reach the record lows we saw during the pandemic. 

After peaking above 8% in late 2023, average mortgage rates have been in the mid-6% range for a while. They could drop close to 6% by the end of the year, but that’s still not enough to draw buyers off the sidelines. A mere 4% of US adults would realistically consider purchasing a home or refinancing their mortgage at a 6% rate.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 52 Comments

NJ home prices up 552% in 40 years

Posted on November 2, 2024 by grim

From Axios:

Washington home prices rose more than 800% in 40 years

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 48 Comments

Wait and see

Posted on November 1, 2024 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Do presidential elections affect the housing market? Here’s what experts had to say

The time surrounding a presidential election is often said to see a slowdown in real estate activity in some markets. Though not by a significant margin, inventory levels and completed transactions may dip as buyers and sellers take a wait-and-see approach before making any real estate decisions, according to Nationwide Mortgage Bankers.

“I think a lot of years, you’ll see a bit of a slowdown during an election month. I think people are just kind of waiting to see what happens this year,” said Dutch Mendenhall, co-founder of RADD Companies. “It’s been a rough year for people in real estate up until about 60 days ago, and then 60 days ago it really started to change. And then 30 days ago, it really started to shift more, with interest rates shifting and changing.”

Bankrate analyst Jeff Ostrowski said the idea that there is less real estate activity during this time is something that is typically spoken about by real estate agents and loan officers. But he said there’s very little, if any, statistical evidence to demonstrate that it is a consistent trend in presidential election years.

In addition to inventory, things like mortgage rates and listing prices are also not typically affected during an election year, Ostrowski said. If home prices or interest rates shift, it is due to factors that have already been at play in our real estate markets.
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Both Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump have several proposed policies as part of their campaigns that relate to housing. And while these things will not have an immediate impact on our housing market, they could in the long term, based on which candidate is elected.

Harris’ plan calls for the construction of 3 million new housing units across the country over the next four years to increase housing supply; $25,000 in down payment assistance to as many as 4 million first-time buyers who have paid their rent on time; and stopping investors from buying and marking up housing, USA Today reported.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Politics | 89 Comments

Availability improving?

Posted on October 31, 2024 by grim

From the NAR:

October 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report

  • The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 29.2%, a twelfth straight month of growth, and is now highest since December 2019.
  • The total number of unsold homes, including homes that are under contract, increased by 22.5% compared with last year.
  • Home sellers increased their listing activity in October, with 4.9% more homes newly listed on the market compared with last year, but this was sharply down from last month as mortgage rates rose to two month highs. 
  • September’s increase in new listings is strongly correlated with a rise in pending listings across the largest U.S. markets in October, such as Seattle, Boston, and San Diego.
  • The median price of homes for sale this October was flat compared with last year, at $424,950, however, the median price per square foot grew by 2.1%, indicating that the inventory of smaller and more affordable homes continues to grow in share.
  • Homes spent 58 days on the market, the slowest October in five years. This is eight days more than last year and three more days than last month.
  • The share of listings with price cuts was unchanged from last year, with 18.6% of sellers cutting prices in the month of October.
  • Home prices in swing states mirror home prices in red states much more than blue states since the last election, tending to be about 30-40% less expensive than blue states on a per square foot basis but 10-20% more expensive than red states.
Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 78 Comments

Beetlejuice in NJ

Posted on October 30, 2024 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

How to book an Airbnb tour of this ghostly ‘Beetlejuice’ house in New Jersey

He’s the ghost with the most, babe, and now the site of his ghostly hauntings is open for the public to tour — if they dare — right here in New Jersey.

In the quaint town of Hillsborough lies a ghoulish replica of the famed Deetz residence from the award-winning 1988 film “Beetlejuice” and its high-acclaimed sequel that was released in September, “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.” Draped in a mourning veil for her beloved husband, Delia Deetz is opening up her home from the Afterlife for a limited time on Airbnb.

Ghost hunters, art enthusiasts and lifelong fans can submit a request to book the home on the platform for one of 10 three-hour visits for up to six guests each between Nov. 16 and 27. Requests will be accepted until Nov. 4 at 11:59 p.m. PT, or Nov. 5 at 2:59 a.m. ET. The price is not disclosed until you get an invitation to book.

“Now that my work is posthumously appreciating in value and recognition, it’s only fair that artistic souls be invited to my magnificent home,” Delia said. “So, come admire my life’s work and Create with a capital C in the first-ever art class from beyond the grave. Just watch out for that pesky trickster in the attic!”

Posted in Humor, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 41 Comments

$700k to live in Staten Island

Posted on October 29, 2024 by grim

From SI Live:

Median price of a Staten Island home hits $700,000, report says

Staten Island home prices are continuing to rise, according to the latest report from the Staten Island Board of Realtors (SIBOR) — and the median sales price of homes in the borough recently hit $700,000, a 3.7% jump from 2023.

“The continuing rise in prices shows an unfortunate lack of entry-level inventory; some policy changes are necessary to assist that end of the market,” said Sandy Krueger, CEO of SIBOR. “I wouldn’t expect much to happen until this year’s election season is over.”

Staten Island’s rising home prices are in line with the nationwide trend, with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reporting a median sales price of $416,700 as of last measure — a 3.1% increase from the same time last year and a new high for the month.

And price is not the only number that’s growing: When compared to September 2023, new listings on the Island increased 2.7% to 420, and pending sales were up 2.4% to 302. Inventory levels, however, fell 16.7% to 1,195 units.

The days on market statistic was also down 5.9% to 62 days, and sellers were encouraged as the “months supply of inventory” was down 19.5% to 3.9 months.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, NYC | 33 Comments

Posted on October 27, 2024 by grim

From the NY Post:

Homes for sale in short supply as there’s now 30 renters for every house on the market in US

The number of homes for sale for each renter household in the U.S. remains near record lows, highlighting the supply crunch that first-time buyers face in the current housing market.

Currently, there are about 30 renter households for each available home for sale, up from less than 10 in 2006, according to Freddie Mac’s latest market outlook report.

The supply shortage dates back to the Great Recession, which dealt a major blow to new home construction. Since then, construction has slowly increased, but failed to keep pace with demand, resulting in a shortage of at least 1.5 million homes.

“Therefore, not only do people seeking to buy their first home have to navigate an expensive market, but they also have to compete with more first-time buyers as supply continues to trail demand,” Freddie Mac economists wrote in the report.

Affordability also remains a key struggle for first-time buyers. The report found that between January 2000 and July 2024, cumulative entry-level prices grew 63% more than high-end home prices, meaning that start-home prices are growing faster than the rest of the market.

“Less affordable housing is acutely felt by those seeking to buy their first homes, especially those without substantial wealth at their disposal,” the report states.

In addition to supply and affordability challenges, high mortgage rates have made the current market one of the most punishing on record for first-time buyers.
…
Despite the barriers to homeownership, the survey found that the dream of owning a home is widespread, with 83% of Americans saying they would rather own a home than rent.

Across all demographics, at least two-thirds said they would rather own a home than rent, including those earning less than $30,000 a year (76%), those without children (77%), and Gen Z (79%).

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 55 Comments

Want cheaper houses? Build more of them.

Posted on October 25, 2024 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Homebuyers still price sensitive as mortgage rates climb: Economist

Mortgage rates rose for their fourth straight week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage now sitting at 6.54%. Existing home sales also fell to a 14-year low, the National Association of Realtors reporting a figure of 3.84 million for the month of September.

Market Domination welcomes Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale to talk about this week’s wave of housing and mortgage data.

“A lot of consumers were expecting mortgage rates to trend down for longer than they have. The economic strength that we’ve seen in… the most recent job market reading has caused a bit of a rebound in interest rates, including mortgage rates,” Hale explains to Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton. “And so consumers have been a bit caught off guard. And we haven’t seen the improvement yet. I think people were waiting for more and we just haven’t seen that yet.”

Hale anticipates mortgage rates to sit just above 6% this time next year. Currently, she is seeing “extraordinarily resilient” home prices as new homebuyers pull out of their housing market searches.

“And so that the fact that supply only just meets demand has kept prices relatively elevated. So I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of pricing relief unless we add a lot more construction,” Hale tells Yahoo Finance.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development | 66 Comments

What buyers?

Posted on October 24, 2024 by grim

From Reuters:

US existing home sales slide to 14-year low; prices stay elevated

U.S. existing home sales dropped to a 14-year low in September, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and house prices.

The second straight monthly decline in home resales reinforced economists’ views that the slump in residential investment, which includes homebuilding, deepened in the third quarter. The housing market has struggled to rebound after being knocked down by a resurgence in mortgage rates in the spring.

Though supply has improved, entry-level homes remain scarce in most regions of the country, keeping home prices at levels that are unaffordable for most first-time buyers.

“It will take more rate cuts and more options to bring buyers back,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Home sales fell 1.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million units, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would be unchanged at a rate of 3.86 million units.

Sales likely reflected contracts signed a month or two ago, when mortgage rates were quite high. Mortgage rates initially dropped after the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last month, but they have risen over the past three weeks as solid economic data, including retail sales and annual revisions to national accounts, forced traders to abandon expectations for another 50-basis-point rate cut next month.

The rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.44% last week compared to 6.08% at the end of September, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.

“We expect housing market activity to remain subdued well into 2025,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Tombs noted that the average interest rate on existing mortgages was about 4% compared to the current 6.5% rate for new mortgages.

“As a result, interest payments for most existing homeowners will jump if they move home, creating a huge incentive to stay put,” he said. “Only large Fed policy easing will meaningfully change this calculus.”

Home resales, which account for a large portion of U.S. housing sales, decreased 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in September. Sales fell 1.7% in the South, with some of the decline attributed to weakness in Florida following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene.

Sales in the state could remain depressed after it was slammed by Hurricane Milton weeks later.

The Northeast and Midwest also experienced a decrease in sales, but activity increased in the West.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 49 Comments

150,000 new housing units coming

Posted on October 23, 2024 by grim

From JD Supra:

New Jersey Releases Fourth Round Affordable Housing Calculations; Identifies Present and Future Need for 150,000 New Units Throughout State

The Department of Community Affairs (DCA) has released its “fourth round” affordable housing calculations for the coming decade, 2025 to 2035.

The DCA has identified the need for approximately 150,000 new low- and moderate-income housing units to accommodate both current and projected affordable housing needs throughout the state.

Property owners or developers interested in residential development should consider this the optimal time to evaluate whether the fourth round of affordable housing compliance can provide opportunities to obtain the necessary local entitlements.

The DCA’s calculations identify a current deficit of 65,410 low- and moderate-income units and project the need for an additional 84,410 low- and moderate-income units during the ten-year period comprising the fourth round. Because of the need to subsidize affordable housing units through the construction of market-rate housing, most of these units will need to be developed as “inclusionary units” of an overall mixed-income development wherein roughly 80-90% of the units will not be restricted as affordable housing units. After allowing for various bonus credits permissible under the law, if all remaining units identified by the DCA end up being developed, this would likely result in the development of hundreds of thousands of new dwelling units.

Under the affordable housing law, all New Jersey municipalities are now required to adopt a resolution determining present and prospective housing needs by no later than January 31, 2025. Municipalities must then publish a copy of this resolution on their website within 48 hours of adoption. Given the calculations performed by the DCA, deviating from those calculations could make a municipality susceptible to challenge. Challenges to a municipality’s determination must be filed to the newly created Dispute Resolution Program by February 28, 2025.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 55 Comments

Bring on the units

Posted on October 22, 2024 by grim

From Gothamist:

After years of delay, former Toys ‘R’ Us headquarters in NJ will be turned into housing

Seven years after Toys “R” Us declared bankruptcy, a deal to put a substantial amount of housing on the site of the company’s former New Jersey headquarters is finally moving forward.

Town officials in Wayne Township this week passed an ordinance to rezone the property for residential use. That clears the way for the developer who purchased it from Toys “R” Us in 2019 to redevelop a substantial chunk of the 191 acres of land into 1,360 apartments, more than 200 of which will be affordably priced for low- and middle-income people. The town has a duty to develop about 500 affordable homes under a state mandate, but Wayne officials have waged a protracted battle with the state over how to fulfill this obligation.

The news comes after five years of negotiation between Wayne and the new owner of the land, Point View Wayne Properties, which has been trying to develop the area for years. The real estate development company met resistance from the township officials over its plan to build residential units, and negotiations were only able to move forward after Point View threatened to sue over Wayne’s alleged “intransigent behavior.”

A Passaic County Supreme Court judge on Oct. 1 ordered the township to rezone the property within 30 days so that construction could move forward. Following the 5-2 vote on Tuesday night, Wayne Town Council President Jason DeStefano told Gothamist that adopting the rezoning was the “right thing to do.”
…
Wayne taking five years just to take the initial step of rezoning what’s been a mostly dormant corporate site since the Toys “R” Us bankruptcy shows how some New Jersey towns are scrambling over their state obligation to provide affordable housing.

New Jersey next summer will begin the fourth round of its state-mandated affordable housing development under the Mount Laurel Doctrine, a 40-year-old state Supreme Court decision that says more than 500 towns across the state must contribute their fair share of low-priced housing in a series of time periods known as “rounds.”

To prepare for the next round, which is scheduled to last 10 years, the state is providing towns this month with target numbers for how many affordable units it wants each municipality to develop. Towns like Wayne, one of the largest geographically in the state, could be asked to develop hundreds — or up to 1,000 — more affordable housing units over the next 10 years.

DeStefano confirmed to Gothamist that the hundreds of affordable homes earmarked for the former Toys “R” Us headquarters site would go toward satisfying units the town still owes for the prior Mount Laurel round.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 30 Comments

Just how many jobs do you need?

Posted on October 20, 2024 by grim

Great chart from Visual Capitalist:

Mapped: Home Price-to-Income Ratio of Large U.S. Cities

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 69 Comments

NJ ponzi scheme lawyer steals $1m

Posted on October 18, 2024 by grim

From NJ.com:

Disbarred N.J. lawyer admits stealing more than $1M from clients

A former New Jersey real estate attorney admitted on Tuesday to stealing $1.18 million from clients, the Monmouth County Prosecutor’s Office announced.

Steven Salami, 49, of Hazlet, pleaded guilty to second-degree financial facilitation of criminal activity before Superior Court Judge Christie Bevacqua, authorities said.

Salami, who was based in Hazlet in Monmouth County, took money from his clients for “various real estate transactions” and never did the work he was expected to do, authorities stated in a news release.

The funds, which he was supposed to hold in escrow for the deals, were never returned to his victims, resulting in missed closing dates and nullified real estate transactions, the prosecutor’s office said.

An investigation uncovered dozens of victims, leading to a 63-count indictment against Salami being returned by a Monmouth County Grand Jury in July 2021.
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During grand jury testimony, a Monmouth County detective presented evidence that Salami was using newer clients’ trust money to satisfy existing clients deals, essentially running a Ponzi scheme with his law practice.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 99 Comments

The Lock In – Illustrated

Posted on October 17, 2024 by grim

From Axios:

Low home turnover rate, charted

Only a small sliver of U.S. homes changed hands through August this year, according to Redfin.

Why it matters: This is one more stunning stat that shows just how stagnant the real estate market has been.

The big picture: High home prices, mortgage rates and lack of inventory have made homebuying near impossible. Conditions aren’t appealing to sellers, sitting on sub-6% mortgage rates, either.

Zoom out: U.S. metro areas are on track to permit fewer new housing units than last year, thanks to high borrowing costs, Axios’ Sami Sparber and Kavya Beheraj report.

What we’re watching: Those golden handcuffs may start to fall off if rates drop closer to 5%, experts predict.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 78 Comments