Bye Bye New Buyers

Posted on July 18, 2025 by grim

From Markets Insider:

The number of first-time homebuyers is plummeting. Why that’s bad news for the US economy.

Economists are always watching the housing market as a barometer for the health of the broader economy, and some see trouble ahead if first-time buyers can’t start climbing the real estate ladder.

The brutal US housing market has been particularly tough for younger people who typically make up a large portion of first-time buyers. Prices soared during the pandemic, and never came back down in most parts of the country. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are the highest they’ve been in over 20 years.

A chart from Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management, showed in June that the number of first-time home buyers has fallen from 50% in 2010 to just 24% in 2024.
…
The housing market is often seen as a bellwether for the economy. When it’s struggling, it can create ripple effects that negatively impact other areas.

“First-time buyers usually kick off the whole chain, and without them, it’s harder for current homeowners to move up or down,” Taylor Kovar, CEO of 11 Financial, told BI. 

“That means fewer listings, slower construction, and less money moving through industries tied to homeownership like appliances, insurance, remodeling—you name it.”

These factors could impact the broader economy in the near-term. As Kovac noted, “Housing has always been a major engine in the economy, so when a whole generation steps back, that’s going to create some drag.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 88 Comments

Flying off the shelf

Posted on July 17, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J. real estate 2025: Homes selling faster than most states

New Jersey homes sold in over a month, according to the latest Realtor.com data.

At a median of 37 days, New Jersey tied with Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan for fourth fastest-selling homes in the nation.

Rhode Island had the fastest selling homes in the nation, followed by Massachusetts and Connecticut, both tied for second place, followed by Maryland. 

Florida, Hawaii and Louisiana had the slowest-selling homes nationwide.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 106 Comments

Mortgage rates aren’t going down anytime soon

Posted on July 16, 2025 by grim

From the AP:

The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge

Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of everything from groceries and clothes to furniture and appliances. 

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month.

Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who as a candidate promised to immediately lower costs, but instead has engaged in a whipsawed frenzy of tariffs that have jolted businesses and consumers. Trump insists that the U.S. effectively has no inflation as he has attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into cutting short-term interest rates. 

Yet the new inflation numbers make it more likely that the central bank will leave rates where they are. Powell has said that he wants to gauge the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs before reducing borrowing costs. 

Excluding volatile food and energy, core inflation increased 2.9% in June from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in May. On a monthly basis, it picked up 0.2% from May to June. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.

The uptick in inflation was driven by a range of higher prices. The cost of gasoline rose 1% just from May to June, while grocery prices increased 0.3%. Appliance prices jumped for the third straight month. Toys, clothes, audio equipment, shoes, and sporting goods all got more expensive, and are all heavily imported.

“You are starting to see scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime filter in,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at asset management firm AllianceBernstein, who added that the cost of long-lasting goods rose last month, compared with a year ago, for the first time in about three years.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 96 Comments

Zandi warns on housing

Posted on July 15, 2025 by grim

From Forexlive:

Moody’s chief economist warns of deepening housing market slump as 7% mortgage rates bite

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi has escalated his warning on the U.S. housing market, shifting from a “yellow flare” to a “red flare” as conditions continue to deteriorate under the weight of high mortgage rates.

In a series of posts on social media platform Twitter, Zandi outlined how persistently elevated mortgage rates—hovering near 7%—are exerting significant pressure on housing demand, homebuilding activity, and price growth. He warns that without a meaningful drop in rates soon, the market is heading for a broader slump.

  • “Home sales, homebuilding, and even house prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates decline materially from their current near 7% soon,” Zandi wrote. “That, however, seems unlikely.”

Zandi noted that while overall home sales are already sharply depressed, homebuilders had been using mortgage rate buydowns to keep new home sales afloat. But with buydown costs becoming unsustainable, many builders are now backing away. A clear sign of their caution: delays in land purchases from land banks—a precursor to future construction activity. As a result, Zandi expects new home sales, housing starts, and completions to drop in the coming months.

Adding to the gloom, Zandi said that the resilience in house prices is also fading. 

  • “House price growth had held up well. But this, too, is changing,” he said, noting that prices have flattened and are likely to decline. Rising supply, coupled with affordability challenges and demographic shifts, is weakening the market’s foundations.
  • “Locked-in homeowners must move,” he added, referring to owners who secured low-rate mortgages during the pandemic
  • “They can only work around these needs for so long.”

Zandi concluded with a broader warning: the housing sector, once a stabilizer in the post-COVID recovery, is now turning into a “full-blown headwind” for the U.S. economy. It joins a growing list of concerns for the outlook into late 2025 and early 2026, raising fresh questions about the trajectory of growth and the Federal Reserve’s path forward.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 64 Comments

Shut up and pay up

Posted on July 13, 2025 by grim

From Fox Business:

New Jersey tops nation’s highest property tax list at $9,413 while southern states offer relief

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 89 Comments

Or will it just tumble down?

Posted on July 11, 2025 by grim

From ROINJ:

N.J. to have nation’s 5th-largest homeownership affordability gap by 2030

You don’t have to tell prospective homeowners how difficult it is to buy a house in New Jersey in 2025. The bad news is it’s going to get even harder by 2030, according to HireAHelper, an online marketplace where consumers can find, compare and book local moving companies. 

New Jersey is predicted to have the ninth-most expensive median house price in the country by 2030 of $844,849. Garden State residents will need the second-highest household income to afford it, according to HireAHelper. With annual property costs, including mortgage and taxes, expected to top $70,104, households will need to earn $210,313, a 94.61% jump from current income levels to keep up affordability. That’s predicted to be the fifth-largest homeownership gap in the nation.

New Jersey is joined by eastern states New York, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire in the top 10 states with yawning affordability gaps. The rest of the top 10 are western states California, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

By 2030, home prices are projected to outpace income growth in all 50 states, with a national median of $615,103. Eight out of 50 states will have to see their household income double in five years to make predicted house prices affordable.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 89 Comments

Cool or crazy?

Posted on July 9, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Is North Jersey’s rental market finally cooling down? How hot the market is so far in 2025

There’s no doubt about it: Finding an apartment, especially an affordable one, in North Jersey is a difficult feat. But believe it or not, it’s a feat that has eased up — if only slightly — during 2025.

In RentCafe’s recent Hottest Rental Markets report, it ranked the top 20 U.S. rental markets based on how competitive they were during the first quarter of 2025.

North Jersey, which has consistently been named among the nation’s top markets, didn’t rank in the report’s top five. In fact, for the first time in at least two years, it didn’t even make the report’s top 10.

Instead, North Jersey — with Bergen, Passaic, Morris, Essex, Sussex, Hudson and Union counties included in the report — was named as the nation’s 11th-most-competitive rental market during this time. That is compared with this time last year, when our region ranked third overall.

“Interestingly, North Jersey’s rental market has softened, as shown by a sharp year-over-year drop in its RCI score,” the report says.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 108 Comments

Last place to buy

Posted on July 7, 2025 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Detroit holding out as the last affordable housing markets

Priced out of your local housing market? It might be time to consider a move to the Midwest.

As home prices and mortgage rates remain high, just three US metropolitan areas — St. Louis, Detroit, and Pittsburgh — have homes for sale at prices that are, on average, comfortably affordable on a median income.

In all three cities, the median home was listed for under $300,000 as of May, putting a purchase in reach for households bringing in $70,000 to $80,000 a year, according to Realtor.com. Generally speaking, spending 30% of one’s income or less on housing is considered affordable.

Incomes haven’t kept up with home prices and interest rates, meaning the number of cities where most of the homes for sale meet the “30% rule” has shrunk.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 70 Comments

Sorry Sellers

Posted on July 6, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

NJ ‘mansion tax’ rates increase under new bill, now are paid by property sellers

Multimillion-dollar home sales in the Garden State will be subject to higher fees under the New Jersey mansion tax as part of a new bill that was passed in tandem with the state’s $58.78 million fiscal year 2026 budget.

The mansion tax, formally referred to as the “Assessment on Real Property Greater than $1 million” or “Additional Fees on Certain Transfers of Real Property Over $1 Million,” was originally signed into law in 2004 by then-Gov. Jim McGreevey.

The tax has historically charged homebuyers — unless negotiated to be paid by the seller — of properties worth $1 million or more a 1% supplemental realty transfer fee at the time of closing.

Taking effect on July 10, this new bill shifts the burden of the mansion tax, as well as the state’s controlling interest transfer tax for commercial properties, from property buyers to sellers.

It also maintains the original 1% fee for home sales worth $1 million to $2 million, but now also implements higher fees for increasingly expensive properties. This starts with a 2% fee for home sales worth $2 million to $2.5 million and increases by half a percentage point for every $500,000 more, topping out at 3.5% for property sales of more than $3.5 million.

Posted in General, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 25 Comments

Jobs Day!

Posted on July 3, 2025 by grim

From NBC:

U.S. job growth expected to have slowed in June as economy sends mixed signals

The U.S. economy continues to send mixed signals. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report job figures for June that may help clear up the picture.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast that 110,000 new payrolls were added in June. That would be the fewest since February, and it would be the fourth monthly decline in the past six months. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was expected to have climbed to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021.

Consumers and businesses are still grappling with the uncertaintycaused by President Donald Trump’s policies, something further reflected in volatile data. 

On one hand, the inflation rate has so far proven stable, while average earnings continue to grow at a healthy clip. Stocks have returned to all-time highs, and in testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described overall economic conditions as “solid.”

“Look at labor force participation, look at wages, look at job creation,” Powell said. “They’re all at healthy levels now. I would say you can see perhaps a very, very slow continued cooling but nothing that’s troubling at this time.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 131 Comments

Jersey benefits most from SALT cap increase

Posted on July 2, 2025 by grim

From Axios:

Some homeowners could see tax breaks if Trump’s bill passes

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 61 Comments

Zillow Fights Back

Posted on July 1, 2025 by grim

From Business Insider:

The Zillow Blacklist is officially here

Pretty much every potential homebuyer looks for houses on the internet, scouring listings for the right facade and envisioning their couch in glossy photos of empty living rooms. A lot of the time, that digital touring pays off: The National Association of Realtors recently found that about half of purchasers end up finding the winning property online. For many house hunters, the never-ending cyberquest for that dream home includes a stop (or many) at Zillow.

If you count yourself among the 221 million monthly visitors who scan Zillow or one of its affiliated portals, like Trulia, you probably won’t notice any change in your home-scrolling habit on June 30. But it’s an important date for the biggest name in home search. Behind the scenes, Zillow is using its vast machinery to fight a battle that could determine where you find your next house — and whether it even appears on Zillow at all.

Starting Monday, Zillow will be banning home listings that have been marketed publicly by a real estate agent — which includes everything from planting a for-sale sign in the front yard to posting on Facebook — without being shared in the local databases that feed home listings to the rest of the real estate industry, including Zillow and other search websites, within one business day. The move is part of a broader fight over “exclusive inventory” or “hidden homes” — basically, properties advertised in some places but not others. In an attempt to seize more control over their listings, agents at some real estate brokerages have been advertising homes in internal databases or posting them only on their own websites, out of reach of the search portals.

While the fight has been going on for a few years, things have recently turned especially ugly. Compass, the largest real estate brokerage in the US by sales volume, sued Zillow in federal court last week over the new blacklist, and industry execs have spent months trading barbs via social media, speeches, and email blasts that reached thousands of agents across the country.

The back-and-forth leaves homebuyers and sellers in a weird spot. I’ve spent months talking to people around the industry about the hidden listings issue, and I’m left with one big conclusion: If you decide to hire an agent (which most people do), you should go into that relationship with open eyes. The rules of the game are changing. Consumers need to make sure they know exactly what they’re getting from their agents and how much they’ll be paying for those services. Buyers’ agents should also be able to explain how they’ll navigate a shifting landscape in which some listings may become harder to find.

Big companies are squabbling because they need your clicks, your home listings, and, ultimately, the commission checks that flow from your deal. Whether you’re a buyer or seller, your business is especially valuable right now. It can be daunting, but the upheaval may be advantageous if you play your next home transaction correctly.

Posted in General | 73 Comments

Sorry Millionaires

Posted on June 30, 2025 by grim

From WHYY:

Why are New Jersey housing costs continuing to rise — and who should pay for affordable housing?

On Monday, the New Jersey Legislature is expected to give final approval to the state’s fiscal year 2026 spending plan. The $58.8 billion budget is more than 2.5% higher than last year’s spending plan.

Part of the proposal calls for an increase in the real estate transfer fee for homes that sell for more than $2 million. If approved, sellers will pay $20,000 on  properties that are sold for $2 million. That fee will increase 2.5% on homes that sell between $2.5 million and $3 million.

Peter Chen, senior policy analyst for New Jersey Policy Perspective, said this increase makes sense at a time when housing costs are pricing many people, particularly low- and moderate-income residents, out of the state, and a lot of the funding for affordable housing already comes from the realty transfer fee.

“So increasing those funds to ensure that more people can actually afford to live in New Jersey who aren’t in the top 15% of home sales in the state, that’s important for ensuring the state is affordable for all,” he said.
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Douglas Tomson, chief executive officer of New Jersey Realtors, said increasing the real estate transfer fee would be a serious mistake.

“A million-dollar home is a middle-class home in many parts of our state, so we’re talking average New Jerseyans that would be affected,” he said.

Tomson argued increasing the fee would hurt the state real estate market.

“It would definitely give a lot of buyers and sellers pause before they want to make an investment or before they get off the fence,” he said.

Grant Lucking, chief operating officer for the New Jersey Builders Association, agreed.

“It impacts the market and it’s just not something that lends to additional affordability in the state, which is something that the legislature has been working on,” he said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 76 Comments

What happened with the house listed for $1?

Posted on June 27, 2025 by grim

From the NY Post:

Listed for $1, this suburban NJ home received multiple $550K offers: ‘Thankfully, it worked out very well for us’

In for a buck, in for $550,000.

A Newark, New Jersey real estate broker raked in more than half a million dollars yesterday on a listing asking just $1. The colonial-style home, located in a quiet suburban enclave of the city, was on offer for a mere seven days.

Brendan DaSilva made headlines last week when he listed his own three-bed, two-bath investment property on the outskirts of Newark for that pocket-change sum. His plan, as reported by NJ.com, was to let the market decide on a fair price. 

“Thankfully, it worked out very well for us,” DaSilva told The Post, saying he received three $550,000 offers. 

DaSilva’s ambitious sales tactic was more than just a clever gimmick — the endeavor was an experiment in markets and marketing. 

Although he’s never seen a broker list a home for $1, DaSilva said, he’s seen plenty of homes under-priced for the sake of optics. 

“What winds up happening is you go, ‘Oh, my God, this house in New Jersey sold for $200,000 over ask,’” he said. “It’s make believe.” 

So, DaSilva leaned into the fantasy. 

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 230 Comments

Tick tick tick

Posted on June 26, 2025 by grim

From Mortgage News Daily:

Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.  If we don’t, they were down 0.4% from March.

FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)

  • April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0%
  • YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025

Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%).

The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April’s declines to some extent.

Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted)

  • YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March
  • MoM (raw): +0.6%
  • MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%

This marks the smallest annual national gain since mid‑2023—further evidence of continued deceleration.

Posted in General | 68 Comments