Time to cash in

Posted on January 11, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

New Jersey Airbnb hosts charging $17K for weekend stays during the World Cup Final this summer

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final approaches, a small cluster of Airbnb listings near MetLife Stadium in New Jersey is testing how much fans will pay to stay close to the action.

Seven short-term rentals within a five- to 20-minute walk of the stadium — located in East Rutherford — are currently listed between $13,000 and nearly $17,000 for three nights over the July 17 to 20 championship weekend. The properties range from apartments to single-family homes — and are largely marketed toward group stays, emphasizing walkability, parking and sleeping capacity rather than luxury finishes.

The pricing stands out even within a region accustomed to major event surges, reflecting the scale of demand expected for the World Cup Final, which will cap a monthlong tournament hosted in cities across North America.

The most expensive Airbnb listings identified near the stadium share a similar profile: multi-bedroom layouts, free parking and accommodations designed for friends and families traveling together.

One two-bedroom, one-bath apartment listed for a cool $14,533 advertises sleeping for up to six guests, a game room and two parking spaces. Should six soccer fans want to cram into this perch, it would cost some $2,400 apiece for the stay.

Another two-bedroom apartment, priced at $13,797, highlights Manhattan skyline views, a balcony overlooking MetLife Stadium and the American Dream complex, plus transit access into New York City.

At the upper end of the range, a one-bedroom, one-bath home listed for $16,074 includes a queen bed, a pull-out sofa and a fully equipped kitchen — while a larger house listed for $14,590 features multiple queen beds and a private home theater. A three-bedroom apartment asking a high $16,125 emphasizes sleeping capacity, laundry, parking and proximity to nearby attractions.

The listings are positioned less as luxury accommodations and more as logistical conveniences for fans seeking to remain near the stadium throughout the weekend.

Posted in Gold Coast, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 129 Comments

Will it?

Posted on January 9, 2026 by grim

From CBS News:

Trump says he wants government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds in a push to bring down mortgage rates

President Trump said on social media Thursday that he is directing the federal government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, a move he argued would help reduce mortgage rates at a time when Americans are worried about home prices.

Mr. Trump and the White House have been trying to show they are responding to voter concerns about affordability ahead of midterm elections in November. Home prices have generally risen faster than incomes because of a persistent construction shortfall, making it harder for renters to buy their first home and for existing owners to upgrade to a new property — a challenge that dates back to Mr. Trump’s first term and the recovery from the housing market collapse that triggered the global financial crisis in 2008.

Mr. Trump last month said he planned to unveil housing reforms — and on Wednesday, he announced that he wants to block institutional investors from buying houses.

The president said Thursday that the two mortgage giants under government conservatorship, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have $200 billion in cash that will be used to make the mortgage bond purchases.

“This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” he posted on Truth Social.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Politics | 218 Comments

Private equity out of housing?

Posted on January 8, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

Trump says U.S. to ban large investors from buying homes

President Donald Trump said the U.S. should bar large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that corporate ownership has helped push housing further out of reach for everyday Americans.

“For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday.

“It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,” he added.

Private equity giants, real estate investment trusts and other large institutional investors have amassed sizable portfolios of single-family rental homes over the past decade. Many have argued that these investments have reduced housing supply for would-be homeowners and helped drive up prices. 

Invitation Homes, which is the largest renter of single-family homes in the country, tumbled 6%. Shares of Blackstone, an investing firm that owns and rents single-family homes, dropped more than 5%. Private equity firm Apollo Global Management also declined over 5%.
…
Blackstone was the largest private-equity owner of apartments in the U.S. with more than 230,000 units, according to data from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project released last year. Blackstone in recent years has spent billions acquiring real estate companies such as Tricon Residential, American Campus Communities and AIR Communities.

Trump did not provide details on how such a ban would be implemented. Trump said he plans to outline additional housing and affordability proposals during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in two weeks.

Senator Tim Scott, head of the committee overseeing housing in the Senate, said while he embraced Trump’s push for affordability, the better way to go forward would be his bipartisan “ROAD to Housing” bill.

“2026 must be the year we get housing affordability right for working families. I welcome President Trump’s desire to look for ways to create more homeowners, especially first-time homeowners,” Scott said in a statement to CNBC’s Emily Wilkins. “My focus is on advancing meaningful solutions that expand housing supply and lower costs — including building on our unanimously passed ROAD to Housing Act — because that’s how we make the American Dream more attainable.”

Posted in Crisis, National Real Estate, New Development, Politics | 223 Comments

Back to Work

Posted on January 7, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

Manhattan office leasing in the fourth quarter was the strongest in 6 years

Office leasing in Manhattan surged substantially higher in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by continued return-to-office and increased tech hiring, especially for artificial intelligence.

Leasing increased by more than 25% from the third quarter to 11.87 million square feet, according to Colliers. Demand was 16% higher year over year, close to 52% above the five-year quarterly average and 43.5% above the 10-year average.

It was the island’s strongest single quarter of leasing since the fourth quarter of 2019, Colliers found. For all of 2025, leasing volume was the highest since 2019 and just 2.4% below 2019′s pre-pandemic total. 

“Manhattan’s strong performance in 2025 was not out of the blue, but was instead the continuation of a recovery that we began to feel in 2024,” said Frank Wallach, executive managing director for New York research and business development at Colliers.

“Demand in 2025 was a continuation of that trend, though greatly accelerated by factors such as tenant flight to quality to attract and retain talent, return-to-office trend implementation, sizeable expansions by major tenants – such as Amazon, NYU and BlackRock – and the emerging AI industry leasing space throughout Manhattan,” he said.

Wallach also noted an uptick in demand from various industries, including finance, tech, legal, education, medical nonprofit and government. 

The supply of available office space is still much higher, up nearly 37%, than it was at the start of the pandemic in March 2020, but much lower than the post-pandemic peak in February 2024, according to Colliers. As demand rises, the oversupply is slowly being absorbed, and Manhattan now has the tightest supply since November 2020.

Tighter supply is helping to finally boost rents. Manhattan’s average asking rent was 1.5% higher in Q4 than the previous quarter and, at $76 per square foot, was Manhattan’s highest average since October 2020, Colliers found. For the highest level, so-called Class A product, which is newer construction, the average asking rent increased 1.6% to $83 per square foot, Colliers said. 

Class B office product is older but tends to be in good locations. It is now seeing landlords invest in upgrades and renovations as demand increases. That helped rents in Q4 grow 1.1% to a record high of $68.61 per square foot, according to Colliers. 

There continues to be a flight to quality, with 69% of all leased space in four- and five-star buildings, up from 66% in 2024, according to a separate report from CoStar. It found that every one of the 15 largest office leases signed during the year took place in four- or five-star properties. For example, Deloitte’s 800,000-square-foot commitment at 70 Hudson Yards, a premiere Manhattan office building, was the largest lease of the year.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate, New Development, NYC | 159 Comments

Now you can speculate on real estate without owning anything…

Posted on January 6, 2026 by grim

From Polymarket:

Polymarket and Parcl Announce Partnership to Launch Real Estate Prediction Markets Powered by Parcl Indices

Parcl, the real-time housing data and onchain real estate platform, and Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, today announced a partnership to bring Parcl’s daily housing price indices to a new suite of real estate prediction markets on Polymarket.

The partnership will introduce housing-focused markets that settle against Parcl’s published price indices, giving traders and analysts an objective, data-driven reference point for forecasting where home prices are headed. Polymarket will list and operate the markets; Parcl will provide independent index data and settlement reference values designed for transparent verification.

Housing is the largest asset class in the world, but it’s still hard to express a clean view on price direction without taking on property-level complexity, leverage, or long timelines. By combining Parcl’s daily indices with Polymarket’s event-market structure, the partnership offers a simpler way to trade housing outcomes, with clear settlement rules and public, auditable resolution data.

“Prediction markets are gaining substantial momentum and represent a paradigm shift in how views are expressed, and truth is identified,” said Trevor Bacon, CEO of Parcl. “Parcl is the source of truth for real-estate pricing, and we believe real estate should be a major category within the prediction-market ecosystem. Polymarket is a pioneer in the space, and we’re excited to partner with them.”

“Prediction markets work best when the data is clear, and the outcome can be verified without debate,” said Matthew Modabber, CMO of Polymarket. “Parcl’s daily housing indices give us a strong foundation to launch housing markets that settle transparently and consistently. Real estate should be a first-class category in prediction markets, and this partnership is how we get there.”
…
Initial markets will focus on major U.S. housing markets. Market templates will include questions tied to index movement across defined periods, such as whether a city’s home price index finishes up or down over a month, quarter, or year, as well as threshold-style outcomes that settle against published index values.

To improve transparency for traders, each market will reference a dedicated Parcl resolution page showing the final settlement value, historical index context, and the methodology used to calculate the index. This gives participants a single, consistent source of truth for verifying outcomes.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 54 Comments

The future of residential real estate in the Northeast?

Posted on January 5, 2026 by grim

Fr0m Money Canada:

This couple built a $500K ADU in their parents’ backyard to beat $1.8M home prices — but there are trade-offs. Is there a better way?

Unattainable home ownership due to increasingly exorbitant home prices is something that many North Americans are affected by, no matter how diligent they are with their finances.

Take Aislyn and Ali Benjamin, who were priced out of their dream neighbourhood in California, and instead of chasing listings and feeling a sense of discontent, the Benjamins built a US$500,000 (C$700,000) Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) in the backyard of Ali’s parents’ property.

“This was the best decision we ever made,” Ali, 35, said to Business Insider (1). “It allowed us to save so much money and live where we wanted.”

Home prices in Canada aren’t fairing any better, particularly in metropolitan areas. In Toronto — where the average home sale price was about $1.059 million in September 2025, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (2) — even small detached homes have become out of reach for most families.

Before moving, the Benjamins paid US$3,065 (C$4,300) a month for a two-bedroom apartment. Their new 1,200-square-foot ADU — complete with three bedrooms, a private sauna and a small gym — now costs about US$2,880 (C$4,000) a month, including utilities on a 15-year mortgage. That’s a modest saving of around US$185 (C$300) a month, but their payments now go toward equity, not rent.

They also benefit from lower power bills, thanks to their parents’ rooftop solar panels, and they split utilities. With no condo or HOA fees — something that can easily add hundreds per month in newer Toronto buildings — their overall expenses are significantly lower.

Then there are the hidden savings: Ali’s parents can offer help with their dog negating the need for boarding fees, as well as future childcare savings once they have children. Here in Canada, even with the federal 10-a-day childcare plan (3), Toronto daycare costs can still range from $400 to $500 per month as of 2021 (4).

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 102 Comments

Time to buy Florida?

Posted on January 4, 2026 by grim

From the Daily Mail:

Condo crash deepens as cities see prices plunge nearly 20% – the worst slide since the Great Financial Crisis

Florida‘s condo slump is now the worst since the Great Financial Crisis — and the numbers are getting hard to ignore.

Across the state, condo values are down 9.9 percent over the past 12 months of 2025, according to new data shared by housing analyst Nick Gerli — the steepest one-year drop since 2009.

But that figure masks far steeper losses in parts of the state, where values have plunged well into double digits in just the last year.

On the gulf side of the state, Punta Gorda has been hit hardest, with condo prices down 18.6 percent year-over-year. 

Cape Coral is not far behind at 14.2 percent, followed by Tampa and parts of Sarasota which recorded price drops of between 12 and 18 percent year-over-year, Gerli said. 

In South Florida, Broward County is down 11.9 percent, Palm Beach 11.4 percent and Miami-Dade 7.2 percent — meaning the drops have spread beyond smaller Gulf Coast markets where the problem was contained.

The scale of the declines is alarming. Double-digit price drops in a single year are rare outside of full-blown housing crashes.

Gerli said that on average, Florida condo values are down 13 percent from their peak. 

Florida houses roughly a fifth of all US condos, and was long considered a hotspot for retirees, first-time buyers, and foreign investors. Pandemic buyers flocked to the area to work remotely, but that trend went bust this year.

The drop in condo prices comes as inventory has surged, with condos flooding the market and buyers bombarded with options.

Many condo owners are selling due to skyrocketing homeowner association fees and high insurance premiums, if they can even get insurance at all.

The problem grew even worse over the summer, when the Sunshine State’s residents who flocked there for affordable condos found themselves suddenly stuck with old properties worth virtually nothing they are desperate to escape. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 54 Comments

The guy who built the (new) Jersey City?

Posted on January 2, 2026 by grim

From Real Estate NJ:

Looking back: Fulop, outgoing Jersey City mayor, reflects on policies behind historic development boom, affordability push

By his own admission, Steve Fulop was skeptical of the development community when he joined the Jersey City Council in 2005.

His view today, as he winds down his third term as mayor, is indisputably different.

“In 2013, I started to think more about the fact that a healthy city is a growing city,” Fulop said, alluding to his first year as mayor, after having built relationships on the council, in the private sector and elsewhere as part of a “good, on-the-ground education” on how cities grow.

“We wanted to be recognized as a world class city with arts, culture and nightlife — and development was key to that.”

The shift was pivotal for a municipality that, since Fulop took office, has become even more firmly entrenched as the epicenter of commercial real estate investment in New Jersey, most notably in the multifamily space. Developers in Jersey City have completed more than 45,000 units of market-rate and affordable housing in the last 10 years, according to the mayor’s office, while the city has tens of thousands of additional units under construction or approved for future projects.

Fulop, who leaves office on Jan. 14, has famously leveraged that demand to expand development beyond the city’s downtown and waterfront neighborhoods. He’s also taken major steps to boost access to affordable housing, as his team notes, while spearheading high-profile, public-sector investments that supported major social, cultural and quality-of-life initiatives.

The decisions weren’t universally popular. Fulop knows that well, but his conviction is as strong as ever that Jersey City is better off after 12 years of pro-growth policies.

“I realized that even those loud voices on social media don’t reflect the larger community,” he said, especially after winning three mayor elections. “If you were to look at the Facebook crowd during those campaigns, you’d think I was going to lose by huge numbers.

“And I say that because you’ve got to keep perspective that it’s a complicated city, a big city, and most people appreciate growth.”

He also acknowledged that the city, like the rest of the region, still faces a significant housing shortage. That continues to put pressure on rents, he said, especially given the lack of development in New York City over the past decade. It also speaks to the top campaign issue for Councilman James Solomon, who will succeed Fulop as mayor after winning a runoff election against former Gov. Jim McGreevey.

“I feel like we’ve done a lot, and I feel like you could always do more,” said Fulop, who did not seek a fourth term as mayor amid an unsuccessful run for governor. “I think there’s definitely an affordability crisis throughout New Jersey — there’s no question about that. There’s an affordability crisis in this entire region. And it’s not only about housing. Wages haven’t been increased at the same rate as costs. That’s at the core of the problem.”

Posted in Gold Coast, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 169 Comments

Predictions 2026!

Posted on December 31, 2025 by grim

Break out your crystal ball and let’s hear ’em!

Recession / Economic

Real Estate

Stocks/Securities

Commodities

Inflation

Mortgage Rates

Geopolitics

Whatever

Bragging rights to anyone who nailed it for 2025: Click Here

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 56 Comments

Pending home sales tick up

Posted on December 30, 2025 by grim

From Marketplace:

Pending home sales are on the rise, which could be good news for the new year

There’s a spark of good news for the housing market as 2025 draws to a close: Pending home sales shot up by more than 3% in November, after rising nearly 2.5% the month before. The National Association of Realtors reports those numbers, which count signed contracts that are expected to close over the next four to six weeks.

Existing home sales have also been trending higher for the past three months, and the growth of home prices has been moderating — just 1.2% year-over-year in November.

So, affordability is improving, there’s a little bit more inventory available for sale, mortgage rates have trended lower over the year. For a change, the housing news is not all gloom and doom.

“A slight surge in pending home sales — it is a promising sign, the best increase on a seasonal basis since 2023,” said Guy Cecala at Inside Mortgage Finance.

Especially because the market since then looked like a “housing market stuck in the mud,” said Cecala.

Homes and mortgages haven’t seemed affordable for most would-be homebuyers for a while, said Edward Pinto at the American Enterprise Institute. He points out, since 2019, “House prices went up something like 30 or 40%, and wage growth was something like 11%. And so, we ended up with housing becoming much less affordable,” he said.

But by the end of this year, “House-price appreciation, adjusting for consumer prices, [was] actually down 0.5% to 1%,” Pinto said.

Plus, he expects more homes to come onto the market, putting the brakes on future home-price increases. 

There’s another central figure in the affordability equation: mortgage rates. The 30-year-fixed rate peaked near 8% two years ago. Since mid-October, it’s been hovering around 6.2%, said Cecala.

“Mortgage rates are moving in the right direction, even if a lot slower than any of us anticipated,” he said.

Cecala is expecting two to three more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026, which he thinks will bring mortgage rates down further. 

“I think we need to get under 6% before we see any meaningful increase in home-buying activity,” he said.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 66 Comments

Winners and Losers

Posted on December 28, 2025 by grim

From the Washington Post:

Bankruptcies soar as companies grapple with inflation, tariffs

Corporate bankruptcies surged in 2025, rivaling levels not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession, as import-dependent businesses absorbed the highest tariffs in decades. 

At least 717 companies filed for bankruptcy through November, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That’s roughly 14 percent more than the same 11 months of 2024, and the highest tally since 2010.

Companies cited inflation and interest rates among the factors contributing to their financial challenges, as well as Trump administration trade policies that have disrupted supply chains and pushed up costs. 

But in a shift from previous years, the rise in filings is most apparent among industrials — companies tied to manufacturing, construction and transportation. The sector has been hit hard by President Donald Trump’s ever-fluid tariff policies — which he’s long insisted would revive American manufacturing. The manufacturing sector lost more than 70,000 jobs in the one-year period ending in November, federal data shows. 

Consumer-oriented businesses with “discretionary” products or services, such as fashion or home furnishings, represented the second-largest group. This contingent usually tops the list and includes many retailers, and its retrenchment is a signal that inflation-weary consumers are prioritizing essentials.

The S&P data reflects both Chapter 11 and Chapter 7 filings. In the former, also known as a reorganization, the business goes through a court-administered process to restructure its debts while it continues to operate. Under Chapter 7, the company closes down, and its assets are sold off. 

Economists and business experts say the trade wars have pressured import-heavy businesses, which are reluctant to raise prices by too much for fear of alienating consumers. The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
…
Among the total was a surge of “mega bankruptcies,” or filings by companies with more than $1 billion in assets, during the first half of 2025. According to the economic consultancy Cornerstone Research, there were 17 such bankruptcies from January through June, the highest half-year number since the covid-19 outbreak in 2020. Consumer discretionary businesses, including retailers At Home and Forever 21, accounted for several of those filings. 

Posted in Crisis, Economics | 67 Comments

Who is going to blink first?

Posted on December 26, 2025 by grim

From Redfin:

The U.S. Housing Market Has 37% More Sellers Than Buyers—More Than Double Last Year’s Gap

There were an estimated 37.2% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in November (or 529,770 more, in numerical terms)—the largest gap in records dating back to 2013 aside from this summer. That’s up from 35.6% a month earlier and 17% a year earlier. The gap has been hovering above 35% since April.

We define a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market. By this definition, it has been a buyer’s market since May 2024. 

When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers typically hold the negotiating power because they have a lot of options to choose from. That’s why a market with a lot more sellers than buyers is considered a buyer’s market. Of course, it’s only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy—many Americans have been priced out of the housing market as affordability has eroded.

“A modest improvement in housing affordability could bring some homebuyers off the sidelines in 2026, which could narrow the gap between homebuyers and sellers,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “But the housing market is likely to remain in buyer’s market territory for the foreseeable future, with sellers cutting prices or offering concessions to lure buyers.”
…
The number of homebuyers in the U.S. housing market dropped 2.5% month over month in November to an estimated 1.43 million. That’s the biggest monthly decline since April 2025 and the lowest level on record aside from April 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic brought the housing market to a halt. The number of buyers fell 9.4% year over year.

Sellers have also been retreating, but not as quickly. The number of sellers in the market fell 1.4% month over month to an estimated 1.95 million—the largest decline since June 2023 and the lowest level since February. The number of sellers rose 6.2% year over year.

Buyers are backing off due to high housing costs and economic uncertainty. Sellers, many of whom are buyers themselves, are backing off in response to lackluster demand for their homes. Some sellers are delisting after watching their homes sit on the market for months with zero bites from buyers, while others are choosing not to list at all after seeing their neighbor’s house sell for under the asking price.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 75 Comments

Uncertainty about ’26

Posted on December 24, 2025 by grim

From Resiclub:

Zillow updates its home price forecast across over 400 housing markets

Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will rise +2.0% between November 2025 and November 2026. 

Heading into 2025, Zillow’s 12-month forecast for U.S. home prices was +2.6%. However, many housing markets across the country softened faster than expected, prompting Zillow to issue several downward revisions. By April 2025, Zillow had cut its 12-month national home price outlook to -1.7%.

In the second half of this year, Zillow began upgrading its forecast. In August, it revised its 12-month outlook to +0.4%. In September, the forecast increased to +1.2%, and in October Zillow upgraded its 12-month national home price forecast to +1.9%. In November, Zillow slightly downgraded its 12-month outlook to +1.5%. This month, however, Zillow revised its 12-month outlook for U.S. home price growth back up, just a tad, to +2.0%.

While Zillow’s national home price forecast is no longer negative—it isn’t exactly bullish either. They’re calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 90 Comments

Money to spare

Posted on December 23, 2025 by grim

From MPA:

Luxury home prices soften as sales speeds split across US

National luxury listing prices edged down again in November even as some of the country’s priciest enclaves saw homes sell faster, underscoring how local forces have continued to outweigh any single national narrative for high-end borrowers and their brokers.

Realtor.com’s latest Luxury Housing Report showed the 90th‑percentile “entry‑level luxury” threshold slipping to $1,199,977 in November, down 2.3% year over year, while the 99th‑percentile ultraluxury bar ticked up modestly to $5,490,492.

Nationally, million‑dollar listings made up 12.8% of inventory and the median luxury home spent 78 days on market, flat from a year earlier, even as individual metros diverged sharply.

“Luxury home dynamics are increasingly driven by local factors rather than national trends,” Antony Smith, senior economist at Realtor.com, said.

“Some high-cost metros are experiencing brisk demand and fast turnover, while others face slower sales even at elevated price points. Understanding these local dynamics is key for both buyers and sellers in today’s luxury market.”

San Jose–Sunnyvale–Santa Clara, Calif., led the country with top‑tier homes selling in a median of 56 days, while Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario, Calif., and the Washington, D.C., metro all saw median selling times under two months for the top 10% of listings.

By contrast, Bend, Ore., recorded a 146‑day median for luxury listings, the slowest in the nation, with Heber, Utah, and Kahului–Wailuku, Hawaii, also among the laggards despite eye‑watering thresholds starting above $3.6 million.

Naples–Marco Island, Fla., stood out as a split story for borrowers and brokers. The market’s luxury threshold sat near $3.50 million, slightly lower than a year earlier, but high‑end homes sold 23.5% faster as inventory remained plentiful and post‑hurricane rebuilding after Hurricane Milton reshaped demand in one of Florida’s most closely watched coastal markets.

Broader luxury trends have remained uneven. A recent Redfin analysis found US luxury home prices rose about 5% in the third quarter of 2025, roughly twice the pace of non‑luxury homes, as cash‑heavy buyers used high‑end real estate as a safe place to park their money amid economic uncertainty. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 70 Comments

Time to go back home

Posted on December 22, 2025 by grim

From the Daily Mail:

The great work-from-home dream is over as America’s hottest pandemic housing market is now one of its biggest losers

    As pandemic lockdowns sent Americans fleeing for warm-weather locales where they could take Zoom meetings in shorts and flip-flops, Florida emerged as one of the hottest destinations for the remote-work crowd.

    Now, these employees have been called back to the office in droves — forcing them to abandon their sun-drenched homes while property values tank.

    Florida dominated a year-end list of metro areas nationwide that saw the steepest year-over-year median home value losses — and experts predict it’s only going to get worse. 

    The Sunshine State claimed six out of 10 spots on Realtor.com’s report, which found the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area to be the hardest hit.

    The Gulf Coast metro saw its median home price drop 8.6 percent over last year, or a whopping $36,423, to a median listing price of $478,800.

    ‘During the pandemic, many of these areas saw home prices shoot way up because there was so much demand and so many people were able to work remotely,’ Sarasota real estate agent and Ron Myers, owner of Ron Buys Florida Homes, told the Daily Mail.

    ‘A big part of the problem in this area is people from New York and up North have to move back for work and there hasn’t been an increase in value in their homes since the pandemic, in fact there’s been a drop,’ he added. 
    …
    ‘Many people moved here during the pandemic and have to go back to the office, and that’s out of Florida,’ Katrina Allison, a local real estate broker in Cape Coral, told the Daily Mail. ‘In the meantime, their houses have lost value.’
    …
    Spaniak explained that many people who bought homes for remote work ended up with a property that’s now a burden, as insurance and property taxes have increased while housing prices plummeted. 

    ‘Sellers need to figure out if they’ll take a lower a price because the market is not going back up anytime soon,’ she said, predicting that things are going to hit rock bottom in the new year. 

    ‘It’s only going to get worse,’ Spaniak continued. 

    Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 38 Comments