Jersey benefits most from SALT cap increase

Posted on July 2, 2025 by grim

From Axios:

Some homeowners could see tax breaks if Trump’s bill passes

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 47 Comments

Zillow Fights Back

Posted on July 1, 2025 by grim

From Business Insider:

The Zillow Blacklist is officially here

Pretty much every potential homebuyer looks for houses on the internet, scouring listings for the right facade and envisioning their couch in glossy photos of empty living rooms. A lot of the time, that digital touring pays off: The National Association of Realtors recently found that about half of purchasers end up finding the winning property online. For many house hunters, the never-ending cyberquest for that dream home includes a stop (or many) at Zillow.

If you count yourself among the 221 million monthly visitors who scan Zillow or one of its affiliated portals, like Trulia, you probably won’t notice any change in your home-scrolling habit on June 30. But it’s an important date for the biggest name in home search. Behind the scenes, Zillow is using its vast machinery to fight a battle that could determine where you find your next house — and whether it even appears on Zillow at all.

Starting Monday, Zillow will be banning home listings that have been marketed publicly by a real estate agent — which includes everything from planting a for-sale sign in the front yard to posting on Facebook — without being shared in the local databases that feed home listings to the rest of the real estate industry, including Zillow and other search websites, within one business day. The move is part of a broader fight over “exclusive inventory” or “hidden homes” — basically, properties advertised in some places but not others. In an attempt to seize more control over their listings, agents at some real estate brokerages have been advertising homes in internal databases or posting them only on their own websites, out of reach of the search portals.

While the fight has been going on for a few years, things have recently turned especially ugly. Compass, the largest real estate brokerage in the US by sales volume, sued Zillow in federal court last week over the new blacklist, and industry execs have spent months trading barbs via social media, speeches, and email blasts that reached thousands of agents across the country.

The back-and-forth leaves homebuyers and sellers in a weird spot. I’ve spent months talking to people around the industry about the hidden listings issue, and I’m left with one big conclusion: If you decide to hire an agent (which most people do), you should go into that relationship with open eyes. The rules of the game are changing. Consumers need to make sure they know exactly what they’re getting from their agents and how much they’ll be paying for those services. Buyers’ agents should also be able to explain how they’ll navigate a shifting landscape in which some listings may become harder to find.

Big companies are squabbling because they need your clicks, your home listings, and, ultimately, the commission checks that flow from your deal. Whether you’re a buyer or seller, your business is especially valuable right now. It can be daunting, but the upheaval may be advantageous if you play your next home transaction correctly.

Posted in General | 73 Comments

Sorry Millionaires

Posted on June 30, 2025 by grim

From WHYY:

Why are New Jersey housing costs continuing to rise — and who should pay for affordable housing?

On Monday, the New Jersey Legislature is expected to give final approval to the state’s fiscal year 2026 spending plan. The $58.8 billion budget is more than 2.5% higher than last year’s spending plan.

Part of the proposal calls for an increase in the real estate transfer fee for homes that sell for more than $2 million. If approved, sellers will pay $20,000 on  properties that are sold for $2 million. That fee will increase 2.5% on homes that sell between $2.5 million and $3 million.

Peter Chen, senior policy analyst for New Jersey Policy Perspective, said this increase makes sense at a time when housing costs are pricing many people, particularly low- and moderate-income residents, out of the state, and a lot of the funding for affordable housing already comes from the realty transfer fee.

“So increasing those funds to ensure that more people can actually afford to live in New Jersey who aren’t in the top 15% of home sales in the state, that’s important for ensuring the state is affordable for all,” he said.
…
Douglas Tomson, chief executive officer of New Jersey Realtors, said increasing the real estate transfer fee would be a serious mistake.

“A million-dollar home is a middle-class home in many parts of our state, so we’re talking average New Jerseyans that would be affected,” he said.

Tomson argued increasing the fee would hurt the state real estate market.

“It would definitely give a lot of buyers and sellers pause before they want to make an investment or before they get off the fence,” he said.

Grant Lucking, chief operating officer for the New Jersey Builders Association, agreed.

“It impacts the market and it’s just not something that lends to additional affordability in the state, which is something that the legislature has been working on,” he said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 76 Comments

What happened with the house listed for $1?

Posted on June 27, 2025 by grim

From the NY Post:

Listed for $1, this suburban NJ home received multiple $550K offers: ‘Thankfully, it worked out very well for us’

In for a buck, in for $550,000.

A Newark, New Jersey real estate broker raked in more than half a million dollars yesterday on a listing asking just $1. The colonial-style home, located in a quiet suburban enclave of the city, was on offer for a mere seven days.

Brendan DaSilva made headlines last week when he listed his own three-bed, two-bath investment property on the outskirts of Newark for that pocket-change sum. His plan, as reported by NJ.com, was to let the market decide on a fair price. 

“Thankfully, it worked out very well for us,” DaSilva told The Post, saying he received three $550,000 offers. 

DaSilva’s ambitious sales tactic was more than just a clever gimmick — the endeavor was an experiment in markets and marketing. 

Although he’s never seen a broker list a home for $1, DaSilva said, he’s seen plenty of homes under-priced for the sake of optics. 

“What winds up happening is you go, ‘Oh, my God, this house in New Jersey sold for $200,000 over ask,’” he said. “It’s make believe.” 

So, DaSilva leaned into the fantasy. 

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 230 Comments

Tick tick tick

Posted on June 26, 2025 by grim

From Mortgage News Daily:

Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.  If we don’t, they were down 0.4% from March.

FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)

  • April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0%
  • YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025

Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%).

The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April’s declines to some extent.

Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted)

  • YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March
  • MoM (raw): +0.6%
  • MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%

This marks the smallest annual national gain since mid‑2023—further evidence of continued deceleration.

Posted in General | 68 Comments

Strongest market in the country?

Posted on June 24, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J.’s new home listings drop while these states see them skyrocket

Fewer homes hit New Jersey’s housing market last month compared to the same time last year, according to the latest figures from Realtor.com.

A total of 9,508 homes were listed statewide in May, making for a decrease of less than 1% compared to the same time last year.

However, most of the nation saw the percentage of newly listed homes increase.

North Carolina and Wyoming saw the largest increase in newly listed homes at over 18% and 17%, respectively.

According to a recent Redfin report, nationwide new listings hit an almost three-year high.

“My advice to homeowners: If you’re planning to sell in the next year or two, do it now because we don’t know what’s going to happen with home values or the larger economy,” Hazel Shakur, a Redfin agent based in Maryland, said in the report. “Buyers should know that because of the uncertainty in the air, they may be able to get a home for under asking price or get concessions from the seller.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 108 Comments

Zillow revises down annual home price forecast

Posted on June 23, 2025 by grim

From Fast Company:

Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets

Heading into the year, Zillow economists forecasted that U.S. home prices ​​were likely to rise 2.6% in 2025.

However, this year, the housing market—in particular in the Sun Belt—was softer than expected and Zillow has made several downgrades to its forecast for national home prices.

This week, newly released data from Zillow shows that U.S. home prices have decelerated to a year-over-year increase of just 0.4%. Zillow economists now expect U.S. home prices to decline by 0.7% between May 2025 and May 2026.

With inventory up nearly 20% over the previous year, buyers had more options in May than at any time since July 2020. Despite higher sales, sellers still outnumber buyers,” wrote Zillow economists. “This gives buyers more time to decide and more power in negotiations. Zillow’s market heat index shows a balanced market nationwide, one that’s a lot more buyer-friendly than in recent years. Competition among buyers declined to the lowest level seen in May in Zillow records, reaching back through 2018.”

Not only do Zillow economists predict soft national home price growth this year, but they’re also predicting that the housing market will only see 4.1 million U.S. existing home sales in 2025. That would mark the third-straight year of suppressed existing home sales. For comparison, in pre-pandemic 2019, there were 5.3 million existing home sales in the U.S.

Zillow economists added: “Home values have fallen in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas over the past year, and sellers cut prices on almost 26% of listings nationwide—another May high in Zillow records. Homes that sell typically do so in 17 days, about four more than last year and only two days fewer than pre-pandemic averages.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 55 Comments

Get real…

Posted on June 22, 2025 by grim

From the NY Post:

This New Jersey home, worth more than $500K, is on the market for just $1

Got a buck?

A New Jersey Realtor has listed a Newark house for $1, calling the move a social experiment intended to evaluate the current state of the housing market.

Broker Brendan DaSilva said he bought the colonial-style home on Reynolds Place for $300,000, and then invested $100,000 into renovating it.

Prior to that, records show the home, which is situated on a dead-end street, was sold in 1974 for $36,500.

The three-bedroom, 1½-bathroom residence was first built in 1945 on a 4,791-square-foot lot on Newark’s border with South Orange. Seton Hall University is just down the block.

DaSilva believes the house is worth at least $525,000. The new owners should expect to pay at least $6,564 in property taxes.

But the $1 listing is no joke. 

Bids can start at that price, and DaSilva told NJ.com that “whoever comes up with highest bid is the offer we’ll go forward with.”

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 42 Comments

I’ll die before I sell you my home

Posted on June 21, 2025 by grim

From the Hill:

1 in 3 baby boomers say they’ll never sell home: Redfin

About a third of baby boomers who own their homes don’t expect to ever part with them, according to a new poll.

The survey, which was conducted by Ipsos last month for nationwide real estate company Redfin, found that another 30 percent of the post-World War II generation said they might sell at some point — just not within the next decade.

Comparatively, about a quarter of homeowners who are part of Gen X — loosely defined as people born between 1965 and 1980 — say they will never sell their homes. About 20 percent of Millennials and the Gen Z cohort who own homes said they will never sell.

According to Redfin, the tendency among older Americans to stay in the homes they own is putting additional stress on the housing market and making it more difficult for younger people to find affordable places to buy that are fit to raise families. Nearly 90 percent of the boomer-owned dwellings are single-family homes.

“While inventory is improving, supply is tight for young house hunters looking for family homes, especially in suburban areas where homes priced like starter homes, yet large enough for families, are scarce,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in an analysis of the poll’s findings. “With baby boomers opting to age in place rather than sell, it’s challenging for younger buyers to find affordable options that fit their lifestyle.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 30 Comments

Can’t afford to live there either…

Posted on June 20, 2025 by grim

From News12:

Report: Home prices hit record high in Suffolk; Nassau market slows slightly

The average price for a house in Nassau last month was $810,000 and the average price of a single-family home is up to $690,000 in Suffolk.

According to by OneKey MLS, the median price of a single-family home in Suffolk in May was $690,000, up 6.2% from last year.

The average price for a house in Nassau last month was $810,000. The number is still up from this time last year, but not a record high.

Nassau’s all-time high was $835,000. That number was hit last August.

Huntington-based realtor Nick Orlando says it’s now common to see someone go at least $100,000 over asking price.

“That’s what’s really keeping prices up, are these few buyers that are just really trying to be as competitive as possible,” he said.

Part of the reason why prices of homes in Suffolk are more expensive now, according to realtors, is that prices in Nassau are even higher, causing people to house hunt further east and creating more demand.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 55 Comments

We’re all millionaires now

Posted on June 19, 2025 by grim

From Mansion Global:

Rising Home Prices Are Creating More ‘Everyday Millionaires’

More than 1,000 Americans a day became millionaires last year, according to a report from UBS released on Wednesday. 

The number of worldwide millionaires, measured in U.S. dollars, rose 1.2% last year, with the U.S. adding more than 379,000 new millionaires. Globally, more than 684,000 people became millionaires last year. 

This rise in wealth—which is up 4.6% globally, following 2023’s bump of 4.2%—is in part because of an increase in the “everyday millionaire,” which UBS defines as someone with investible assets between $1 million and $5 million. At the end of last year, there were 52 million everyday millionaires, more than quadruple the amount that existed in 2000. This demographic accounts for about $107 trillion in wealth—nearly as much as those with more than $5 million in assets, who have a total wealth of $119 trillion. 

The growth of real estate values is playing the largest factor in the rise of everyday millionaires, UBS found. Exchange rates are also a major component of everyday millionaires’ wealth, and the sudden devaluation of another currency against the U.S. dollar could quickly diminish the number of everyday millionaires overseas, according to UBS. 

North American adults, who saw their wealth increase by more than 11%, were the wealthiest on average last year at $593,347, followed by Oceania ($496,696) and Western Europe ($287,688). By country, however, Switzerland was No. 1 in average wealth per adult at $687,166. The U.S. was second with an average wealth of $620,654, followed by Hong Kong at $601,195.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 65 Comments

Buyers giving up?

Posted on June 18, 2025 by grim

From MarketWatch:

Bye-bye bidding wars: Housing market becomes more buyer-friendly as more sellers slash prices

Home sellers this spring have been frustrated by a slower-than-normal housing market. That could set up a summer of deals for buyers.

Housing inventory is nearing prepandemic levels, with the number of homes for sale exceeding 1 million, the highest level since winter 2019. The share of homes for sale with a price cut has increased for the last five months in a row, Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel told MarketWatch. 

That means house hunters this year could end up seeing the “most buyer-friendly summer” in three years, Krimmel said.

Across the U.S., many areas are seeing a profound shift as homes increasingly languish on the market. The typical home for sale remained on the market for 38 days this May, six days longer than in May 2024, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin.

More sellers are offering discounts to buyers. Even as competition intensifies, buyer activity has dropped, said Jeremy Applebaum, an Overland Park, Kan.-based real-estate agent with Applebaum KC Homes for the Real Brokerage. He’s writing fewer offers, he told MarketWatch, and homes are sitting on the market longer. 

Real-estate agents on the seller side are telling their clients to face the uncomfortable truth: They might have to slash their asking price even deeper if they want to sell their home anytime soon. 

“Sellers still have expectations that some people call unrealistic. I call it aspirational pricing,” Jeanne Frederick, a Las Vegas-based global luxury-property specialist at Coldwell Banker, told MarketWatch.

Heather Cook, a Charlotte-based real-estate agent with the Curated Group for the Real Brokerage, agreed. “There’s an extreme disconnect between seller mentality versus reality,” she said. “Buyers are absolutely unwilling to overpay for homes, especially ones sitting on the market for over 30 days, which is not uncommon right now.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 87 Comments

April rebound?

Posted on June 16, 2025 by grim

From Kiplinger:

Kiplinger Housing Outlook: Monthly Home Price Growth Falls for First Time Since 2023

Home prices continue to push higher, but at a slower pace. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures the price of existing homes across the nation, rose 3.4% in March from a year earlier, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. On a month-over-month, seasonally adjusted basis, home prices fell 0.3%. While low house affordability continues to weigh on demand, a limited supply of homes for sale is supporting continued price growth. New York reported the strongest gains over the year, followed by Chicago and Cleveland. Homes prices in Tampa fell 2.2% over the year, the weakest return in the 20 cities covered by the index.

The rebound in housing starts in April is likely to be short-lived. Total housing starts rose 1.6%, to 1.36 million annualized units, in April. The gain was the result of a jump in multifamily construction, which was more than enough to offset a slip in single-family starts. Regionally, total starts rose in the Northeast, Midwest and West and fell the South. Single-family starts dropped 2.1%, while multifamily starts, which are very volatile on a monthly basis, rose 10.7% during the month. Single-family permits fell 5.1%, while multifamily permits decreased 3.7%. The decline in building permits indicates that demand remains volatile amid trade policy and overall financial uncertainty. As mortgage rates remain elevated, builders have stepped up their use of mortgage rate buy-downs and other incentives to soften the impact of higher rates. That said, builders are also becoming more cautious on account of rising uncertainty due to the impact of tariffs on the industry.

New home sales rose sharply in April, up 10.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 743,000 units. The new home market continues to benefit from a tight supply of existing homes for sale and builder incentives that help make new homes more affordable for buyers. The median price of a new home now stands at $407,200, higher than a month ago but 2% lower than a year ago. While the new-home market has been less sensitive to changes in mortgage rates thanks to the incentives offered by builders, rates staying above 6% will likely continue to discourage some buyers in the months ahead. The inventory of new homes has risen 8.6% over the past 12 months. At the current sales pace, that inventory would last 8.1 months.

Existing home sales fell despite a temporary drop in mortgage rates. Sales of previously owned homes slipped 0.5%, to 4.0 million annualized units, in April. Existing home sales continue to run at a slow pace as buyers contend with elevated financing costs, high home prices and limited inventory. Mortgage applications, which lead sales by a month or two, rose in May, which leaves them just shy of where they were in January and very low by historical standards. The total inventory of existing homes on the market rose 9% from a year ago. This translates to 4.4 months of supply at the current sales pace, up from 4 months in March.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 226 Comments

Your kids can’t afford to be here

Posted on June 15, 2025 by grim

From the NY Post:

Here’s how much owning a home in 2030 will cost based on stagnant US salaries

The national median home price is projected to climb to $615,103 by decade’s end, while income gains lag behind — leaving households across the country priced out of homeownership unless their earnings rise dramatically.

Nowhere is the affordability crunch more severe than in Montana, where home prices are forecast to hit roughly $932,584.

To keep up, the average household income would need to jump by an eye-popping 144%, reaching nearly $191,000.

Once considered a haven of affordable living, the state’s housing market has spiraled upward amid a pandemic-fueled influx of remote workers.

California, long a poster child for housing sticker shock, isn’t far behind. The Golden State is projected to see its median home price climb to more than $1.23 million, requiring households to bring in more than $250,000 annually — nearly a 140% increase in average salary — to afford a typical property.

While California boasts some of the country’s highest wages, they haven’t kept pace with the runaway market, the report notes.

New York, to no one’s surprise, is also poised for a pricing crunch.

By 2030, the median home is expected to cost more than $780,000, while the income needed to buy it will need to surge past $179,000 — a 103% leap. Much of that growth is concentrated in dense metro areas like New York City, where demand continues to outstrip supply.

Rhode Island and New Jersey round out the top five states with the biggest affordability gaps. 
…
And in New Jersey, residents will need to earn more than $210,000 annually to manage projected housing costs nearing $845,000. That would make it the second-most expensive state in terms of income required to afford a home, behind California.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 25 Comments

Jersey gets risky

Posted on June 13, 2025 by grim

From ATTOM:

CALIFORNIA AND NEW JERSEY LOCALES TOP COUNTIES FACING GREATEST HOUSING MARKET HEADWINDS

ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the first quarter of 2025. The report shows that California and New Jersey had high concentrations of counties considered most at-risk.

The data shows that 23 of the 50 most at-risk markets were in California (14) and New Jersey (9). Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment rates.

In a sign of the robust post-pandemic housing market, the number of foreclosures and proportion of homes with seriously underwater mortgages—meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property was at least 25 percent more than the property’s estimated market value—remained low throughout much of the country during the first quarter of the year. But that stability, combined with several years of aggressive buying, has contributed to escalating prices that make it increasingly hard to purchase a new home in some markets.

In 109 of the counties ATTOM analyzed, a typical resident would have to spend more than half of their annual income to cover the down payment, mortgage, and other initial expenses for a median-priced home.

“This report highlights a number of market forces that anyone with an interest in their local housing market should keep an eye on,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Affordability is an obvious concern, but as the data shows, there’s a complex interplay between price, wages, mortgage health, and foreclosure rates that can give even greater insight into where property values are likely to go in the future.”

“There’s no unequivocal metric that can tell you where it’s safe to buy and where it’s risky,” he added. “But taken together these data points show how different parts of the country are performing.”
…
The three most at-risk counties in ATTOM’s analysis—Butte, Humboldt, and Shasta counties—cover regions of Northern California that, in addition to contending with challenging market forces, have been ravaged by wildfires in recent years. Rounding out the top five most at-risk counties were New Jersey’s Atlantic and Cumberland counties along the state’s southern coast.

In previous years, counties surrounding New York City, NY have scored among the riskiest in the nation. But that wasn’t the case in the first quarter of 2025. No New York counties landed among the 50 riskiest markets, and although nine New Jersey counties did, they were largely in the central and southern part of the state.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 127 Comments