That don’t sound good

Posted on March 15, 2026 by grim

From the Bergen Record:

Home sellers dropped prices in this North Jersey county. Here’s why

When a home sits on the market too long — whether because it’s priced too high or there’s something just not quite right about it — a seller can hope to draw buyers in by reducing the price.

Happens all the time.

But why did did it happen so significantly recently in one North Jersey county?

In Passaic County in February, there were 338 active listings — and 48 of them had a reduced price, according to Realtor.com.

While it may sound like a small — and it is, relatively speaking — this is a 71.43% month-over-month increase and a 50% year-over-year increase in price reductions. This is compared to the other five North Jersey counties, which all saw much lower increases, or even decreases, in price reductions.

Essex and Hudson counties had a 15.63% and 20.45% month-over-month increase, while Morris and Sussex counties had 16.67% and 15% decreases. Bergen County had a 12.96% month-over-month decrease.

Blame the winter weather — and a change in the market that isn’t being fully realized by sellers.

“I think a lot of it has to do with the brutal cold we’ve experienced over the last few months, but I think the market still has a lot to do with it too,” said John Pordon, a Realtor with Century 21 Gold Properties Realty in Totowa.

While it is still predominantly a seller’s market in North Jersey, with high buyer demand and low inventory, he said he believes many sellers have unrealistic expectations for what their home is worth.

Sellers are stuck in the mindset of peak 2020 to 2022, he said, when homes would get many offers over asking price within days of being listed. But buyers are now skipping houses that they don’t think are worth the money.

“Sellers are saying that if they can’t get the number they want, they’re not selling because most of them don’t need to sell. There’s no urgency,” Pordon said. “The homes that are not priced accurately will not sell. And you’re going to see price reductions if the seller is motivated to sell now.”
…
“Some sellers are still saying, ‘I don’t want to give the house away,’ not fully understanding that you’re not giving anything away. Buyers are going to pay what they see they see the house’s value is,” Kraft said.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Price Reduced | 12 Comments

Northeast strongest in February

Posted on March 13, 2026 by grim

From National Mortgage Professional:

Clear Capital Report Signals Cooling Housing Market In February

Home price appreciation slipped into negative territory in February, as affordability pressures and uneven regional performance weighed on housing markets. The latest Home Data Index (HDI) report from Clear Capital found national home prices declined 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, though prices were still up 1.7% year-over-year. This suggests the housing market continues to stabilize after several years of rapid pandemic-era growth.

Regional performance varied widely. The Northeast posted the strongest results, with home prices flat on a quarterly basis but up 4.9% annually. The Midwest followed, with prices down 0.8% quarterly but up 4% year-over-year. The South and West both recorded quarterly declines and weaker annual gains.

Among major metro areas, the report showed a mixed landscape. Of the 15 largest metropolitan statistical areas analyzed, 10 recorded positive quarterly growth while five posted declines.
…
Several Northeastern metros led the nation in price growth. The strongest regional metro was Providence, where home prices increased 1.8% quarter-over-quarter and 5.1% annually.

Hartford also ranked among the top performers, with prices rising 1.1% quarterly and 6.2% annually.

In New York City, prices increased 0.4% quarter-over-quarter and 5.1% annually, while Philadelphia posted similar quarterly gains of 0.4% and annual growth of 4.1%.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 184 Comments

A conservative budget?

Posted on March 12, 2026 by grim

From Politico:

Mikie Sherrill puts fiscal restraint at center of her first budget for New Jersey

Gov. Mikie Sherrill entered office promising a more affordable New Jersey. Her first major test of that is here.

The Democratic governor on Tuesday unveiled a $60.7 billion state spending plan — which includes $2 billion in cuts and is $980 million more than the state’s current budget. Among the largest reductions is $500 million from New Jersey’s property tax relief program for seniors — a move that could challenge her campaign pledges of affordability.

The spending plan comes as Democrats across the country are focusing on an affordability message headed into the midterms — hoping it will secure majorities in Congress and down-ballot victories in Statehouses. And it comes as polling shows voters don’t trust President Donald Trump’s handling of pocketbook issues.

But promises of affordability are quickly running into the reality of choppy economic waters and rising costs of running the government. Sherrill said her cuts are needed to prevent New Jersey’s financial decline — recently, she warned that the state is projected to spend $3 billion more than it received in revenues. That gap is now expected to be $1.7 billion for the upcoming fiscal year under Sherrill’s plan.

“It’s time to close the deficit the right way, structurally, so we’re not just plugging new holes every year,” Sherrill said in her first budget address. “It’s a simple lesson we learn as kids: You can’t spend more than you earn.”

The high-profile speech also previewed the legislative agenda for the new governor. She promised to address rent-setting algorithms and a will usher through a “historic” reform bill on pharmaceutical middlemen known as pharmacy benefits managers (former Gov. Phil Murphy also made PBM reform a focus during his second term in office).

Sherrill’s push to cut funding for the senior property tax relief program, known as Stay NJ, could become an early political battle with the Democratically-controlled Legislature. Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, a Democrat, is the largest supporter of the tax program, which provides a maximum of $6,500 in property tax relief for seniors making up to $500,000 in the state. It was expected to cost the state about $1.2 billion a year.

Sherrill’s plan includes $700 million for Stay NJ, and would reduce the eligibility threshold to $250,000 and reduce the maximum benefit to $4,000 across the board.

And while lawmakers traditionally include last-minute add-ons to the state budget — amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars in special line item spending — Sherrill vowed to end that practice. She called out legislative leaders who sat behind her and Murphy — albeit not by name — for approving billions in new tax credits and new spending items last year.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 161 Comments

Business Friendly?

Posted on March 10, 2026 by grim

From NJBIZ:

Business leaders praise Sherrill for early outreach efforts

It has been a busy start for Gov. Mikie Sherrill.

Since taking office in January as New Jersey’s 57th governor, Sherrill has been assembling her administration while rolling out policy initiatives, responding to immediate challenges, and making a sustained effort to recalibrate the relationship between Trenton and the state’s business community.

On her first day in office, she kept a central campaign promise – declaring a state of emergency on utilities and signing two energy-focused executive orders right on the inauguration stage. The move was an early signal of her administration’s pace and priorities — particularly concerning affordability.

Another set of executive actions aimed at regulatory reform quickly followed the energy orders, which business leaders immediately applauded.

Sherrill established the Office of the COO and created a centralized permitting office intended to streamline approvals and reduce bureaucratic overlap. She also paused certain rules and regulations for a 90-day review, launching what she described as an effort to ensure that state government is operating efficiently and predictably.

“We thank Gov. Sherrill and her administration for moving so quickly on both EOs to drive efficiencies and reduce permitting delays and costs, as promised,” said New Jersey Business & Industry Association President and CEO Michele Siekerka Jan. 21 about EO Nos. 4 and 5. “Both initiatives send a strong message that help is on the way for businesses, their customers and residents of the state. These are very positive developments that we look forward to helping with and seeing the results of.”
…
Sherrill expressed her commitment to working with the business — stressing that her administration hears the concerns.

“I’m really excited to get this going – because I want our government to work better for you,” said Sherrill. “And the other thing that I’m so excited to see, our legislators here today. Because I think there is a sense – and I’ve even shared that sense – that Trenton doesn’t like business. And I think, in some cases, that’s not quite true.

“But what is true is maybe Trenton doesn’t always have the engagement with business that we need – to make sure that we’re understanding the benefits that you bring so many: the jobs, the opportunities, and how, if you are a public servant, that getting small businesses up and running as quickly as possible is really serving the public quite well.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 221 Comments

Are the kids alright?

Posted on March 9, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

The Shore summer job is back — but will Jersey kids show up?

Something happened this week that made me smile. Wawa announced it’s hiring hundreds of workers for the summer of 2026 at more than 35 Jersey Shore locations. And honestly, it hit me in a few ways at once.

First, the practical part — there are real opportunities right now with a great company for hard-working South Jerseyans who are ready to make a move. But the other thing it did was remind me that summer is not as far away as it feels. The snow has melted. The daffodils are cracking through. The motorcycles are back weaving between lanes. And hiring is happening all up and down all 141 miles of Jersey Shore coastline.

It’s not just Wawa. State parks are looking to fill more than 800 seasonal positions — lifeguards, naturalists, maintenance staff, visitor services — with starting pay around $16.50 an hour and paid training provided. Boardwalk amusement parks like Casino Pier and Morey’s Piers are hiring kids as young as 14. And from there, the list goes on — boardwalk food stands, pizza joints, fudge shops, novelty stores, ice cream windows, sundry shops. Every single one of them needs people. The Shore machine runs on summer workers, and the engine is warming up right now.

Here’s the part that doesn’t get talked about enough. Over the past few decades it’s become harder and harder to fill Shore positions with local young people. The gap has been filled — quietly and significantly — by international college students here on J-1 visas, arriving from Europe and beyond to work the summer season. It became a system that worked. And now that system is suddenly uncertain, with federal cuts threatening the State Department programs that support it. Shore business owners are genuinely worried. One operations director put it plainly — the volume of jobs in such a short window simply can’t be filled by local workers alone. At least not the way things have been going.

But here’s what I’d say to any Jersey kid or young adult who’s on the fence: the opportunity has always been there. It’s there right now. And I hope they see it — not just for the money, but for everything else that comes with it. The skills you take home from a Shore summer have a way of staying with you for the rest of your life. The memories do too.

The Shore is hiring. Go get it.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Shore Real Estate | 86 Comments

Play it again, Sam

Posted on March 8, 2026 by grim

From the Mortgage Point

Relisted Homes Hit Highest January Level Since 2016 

Nearly 45,000 U.S. homes that were delisted in 2025 were relisted for sale in January 2026, the highest January figure dating back to 2016.

That figure is a record 3.6% of homes that were on the market in January, a new report from real estate brokerage Redfin revealed.

Home delistings rose last year because it was, and remains, a buyer’s market, Redfin said.

The brokerage noted that buyers retreated because of high housing costs and economic uncertainty, which meant sellers far outnumbered buyers. That gave negotiating power to buyers who were in the market, with some of them scoring homes that had lingered on the market for far less than the asking price, Redfin said.

Not all sellers were willing to negotiate, however.

Redfin noted that many chose to delist and try again later instead of cutting their price—especially if moving wasn’t urgent and/or they needed to get a certain price to break even after buying the home at the peak of the pandemic market.

Delistings hit a record high of 112,788 in December.
…
More than a third (36.1%) of homes relisted in January were listed for less than their original list price (the price they first listed at last time), Redfin noted.

That’s the highest January share in records dating back to 2016, Redfin said.

“If you delisted your home last year after cutting the price from $550,000 to $525,000, don’t try to relist it now at $550,000,” said W.J. Eulberg, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Milwaukee. “Buyers are savvy. They know how long your home has been on the market, how many times it has been delisted and relisted, and your original asking price.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 54 Comments

Highest in the nation!

Posted on March 7, 2026 by grim

From the Courier Post:

NJ is nearly the highest-taxed state in the nation, study finds

New Jersey is the second-least tax-friendly state in the U.S., according to a ConsumerAffairs report.

The state was found to have one of the biggest tax burdens. Only Hawaii had a higher tax burden than New Jersey.

“What really stands out about New Jersey is that it’s not just one tax that’s high — residents are feeling it across the board, whether it’s income taxes, property taxes or the taxes built into everyday purchases,” said Dayna Edens, media relations manager at ConsumerAffairs, an advocacy group that conducts reviews and studies.

One of the biggest tax burdens comes through the state’s property taxes. New Jersey homeowners face the highest property tax burdens in the country, with average property taxes equal to 9% of income.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 90 Comments

February Market in NNJ

Posted on March 6, 2026 by grim

From the Record:

How North Jersey’s real estate market performed in February 2026

The real estate market in February remained relatively consistent with trends we’ve seen in recent months, with housing inventory recovery stalling — despite the number of active listings continuing to increase — and home prices remaining relatively stable. But mortgage rates did reach a three-year low, a sign that market conditions could be improving for buyers.

February marked the 28th straight month of inventory growth nationwide with a 7.9% year-over-year increase in active listings. The rate of this growth has slowed for nine consecutive months and inventory remains 16.8% below pre-pandemic levels, said Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report.

The number of new listings also increased 2.4% year-over-year and 10% month-over-month, which Realtor.com said is in line with typical seasonal patterns. Listings typically spent about 70 days on the market, or four days longer than last year, marking the 23rd straight month of homes taking longer to sell on a year-over-year basis.

The national median listing price was $403,450, down 2.1% from last year, and 15.5% of listings had price reductions in February.

In New Jersey, there were 13,201 active listings in February, up 11.39% from the previous year, but down 2.93% from January 2026. And of those active listings, 6,476 were newly listed in February, Realtor.com market data showed.

The Garden State had a median listing price of $529,000, down 2.93% from the previous year and up 2.02% from January 2026. There were 2,210 price reductions during that time —8.76% more than the previous year and 19.59% more than January 2026 — and listings stayed on the market for about 45 days, Realtor.com said.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 119 Comments

Jersey Forecast

Posted on March 5, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J. real estate values are shifting. Search your ZIP code for the spring forecast.

Home values across the Garden State are expected to increase by spring, according to Zillow’s latest real estate forecast.

That’s the good news.

The bad news?

An analysis of over 500 ZIP codes in the state showed that most will see home values increase by less than 2.5% by April. 

Somers Point, in Atlantic County, will see the biggest leap in home values at 2.2%.

Meanwhile, home values in 28 ZIP codes are expected to decrease by spring. ZIP codes, 07114 and 08321 — in Newark and Fortescue, part of Downe Township in Cumberland County — will see the most significant decreases at 1.1%.

But the market is shifting — in a good way.

In New Jersey, the drop in mortgage rates will be “a good moment for both [sellers and buyers] in the spring,” said Michael DePalma, a broker and manager at DePalma Realty in Millville. 

“The stuff that’s been sitting will sell, and buyers are going to have their mortgage rates going down,” he added.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 129 Comments

It’s different here

Posted on March 4, 2026 by grim

From the Realtors:

The 5 Strongest States Leading the ‘Two-Speed’ Housing Market

Across the country, prices rose a modest 0.7%. But parts of the Northeast are bucking the broader slowdown.

Cotality reports that New Jersey and Connecticut remain hot—and recorded the highest annual appreciation in the country, both above 5%. 

“This growth is fueled by steady demand around metro areas like Newark and Camden and a shift toward more affordable pockets in smaller markets where supply constraints persist,” says Boesel.

“Newark is insane—it’s like mythic proportions,” says Brendan Da Silva, a Newark real estate agent with Keller Williams. “It’s a hot area—Lionsgate is building a movie studio here. It’s a very competitive market, with lots of bidding wars. I put a Newark house up on the market for $750,000 last week, got seven offers, and the highest was $850,000. It’s not stopping.”

Home prices in New Jersey are up 5.6% year over year, with a median listing price of $519,999.

Home prices in Connecticut are up 5.26% year over year, with a median listing price of $480,000.

“In lower Fairfield County, especially Greenwich and Stamford, the market is still extremely competitive,” Greenwich real estate agent Susan Isaak, of Coldwell Banker, tells Realtor.com. “Inventory remains the biggest driver. In most price points, particularly under $2 million, there isn’t enough supply to meet demand. When a home is priced accurately, we’re still seeing multiple offers, often all cash without contingencies.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 110 Comments

What if Gateway doesn’t happen?

Posted on March 3, 2026 by grim

From NJ Spotlight News:

Op-Ed: Messing with Gateway endangers the post-pandemic boom

As companies call employees back to the office, workers are responding with surging attendance. But just as this post-pandemic comeback gains momentum, federal funding uncertainty for Amtrak’s Gateway Program threatens to undercut the very infrastructure that makes this recovery — and future growth — possible.

Under court order, the U.S. Department of Transportation restored federal funds tied up since October by President Donald Trump’s administration. The rail project’s stability, though, is far from certain.

Gateway, a $16 billion initiative to modernize 10 miles of the Northeast Corridor rail route from Newark to Manhattan, hangs in the balance. A legal tug of war over the last several weeks threatens the long-term vitality of the Tri-State region’s economic collaboration.

If work halts permanently, as the president has threatened, the consequences will ripple far beyond train schedules or passenger safety. Any interference puts the region’s mixed-use commercial real estate industry in the crosshairs, because many transformational, transit-centric developments are tied to Gateway improvements. Further, the private and public construction markets are interconnected – so potentially, the chopping block awaits not only infrastructure and construction jobs, but also the future homes, offices and hospitality assets that our members develop in the region.

Gateway has benefits for both sides of the Hudson River. It will jolt the cleanup and redevelopment of countless underused properties. These investments will stimulate well-positioned commercial real estate projects, creating jobs and generating significant fiscal contributions to local, state and national economies.

In New Jersey, the commercial real estate industry logged 24.7 million square feet in industrial leasing activity, with the fourth quarter of 2025 logging just shy of 5 million square feet. Much of this activity is within the logistics sector, whose workers will benefit greatly from Gateway’s improved service.

Residential permits have surged in recent years, with North Jersey leading in new homes production. Manhattan office leasing increased by more than 25 percent in the fourth quarter, and leasing volume in 2025 hit a six-year high.

Financial and technology firms scooped up office space across Manhattan and Brooklyn, with mega deals signaling increased demand in high-quality spaces that lure employees back to the office. The commercial real estate industry rebound was driven largely by private sector job growth, which increased by 2% in New York City, compared to less than 1% across the country.

All of this progress, however, relies on infrastructure that is well past its time — specifically, the Hudson’s North River tunnels, which are more than a century old and sustained significant damage from Hurricane Sandy in 2012. That link, used by Amtrak and NJ Transit, carries around 450 trains daily, moving hundreds of thousands of residents, employees and visitors. It operates far beyond what it was designed to handle, and is the source of breakdowns and delays that can cripple the route from Boston to Washington, D.C.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 105 Comments

Buyers Walking

Posted on March 2, 2026 by grim

From Redfin:

Nearly 1 in 7 Home Sales Are Falling Through, a Record For This Time of Year

Nearly 40,000 home-sale agreements nationwide were canceled in January, equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 13.1% a year earlier, and the highest January share in records dating back to 2017.

This is based on a Redfin analysis of MLS pending-sales data. The data is seasonal; typically, there’s a higher share of cancellations at the end of the year and a lower share in the spring. That’s why we compare this January to past Januarys. Please note: Homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract that same month. This data is subject to revision. 

Sales are falling through at a higher rate than in the past largely because it’s a buyer’s market, with hundreds of thousands more U.S. home sellers than buyers. That gives buyers negotiating power; they may back out during the inspection period if they see a home they like better or an inspection issue arises. 

Another major reason buyers are backing out of deals is financial uncertainty. While housing costs have come down from their peak, they are still near historic highs. Some would-be buyers are canceling purchases because they’re getting jittery about buying a house when they’re anxious about things like layoffs, tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

“More buyers are backing out,” said Alin Glogovicean, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles, where 16.7% of home purchase agreements were cancelled in January, up from 15% a year earlier. “They’re second-guessing the wisdom of making a huge purchase when there’s a fear in the back of their mind about the state of the economy and the uncertainty of their finances. That’s particularly true when they’re first-time buyers who don’t have equity from a previous home sale, and they’re using most or all of their savings on a down payment.”

In San Antonio, more than one in five (21.2%) home-purchase agreements were canceled in January, the highest share of the 47 major U.S. metros Redfin analyzed. It’s followed by Atlanta (18.5%) and Cleveland (17.9%). Riverside, CA (17.5%) and Orlando, FL (17.3%) round out the top five. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 105 Comments

Will AI destroy the housing market?

Posted on March 1, 2026 by grim

From Benzinga:

AI Boom May Be Creating Hidden Risks In Housing Market

Artificial intelligence is driving massive productivity gains — but it may also be creating hidden risks in one of the most important pillars of the financial system: housing.

Mortgage markets rely on a simple assumption — borrowers will remain employed and continue earning stable incomes. AI-driven job disruption could challenge that foundation.

In their recent note, Citrini Research warns that the rapid displacement of white-collar workers is forcing markets to confront an uncomfortable question: “Are prime mortgages money good?”

Unlike previous housing crises driven by speculative lending or interest rate shocks, this potential risk stems from structural changes in employment itself.

White-collar workers account for a disproportionate share of economic activity. According to the report, the top 10% of earners account for more than half of all consumer spending, making their financial stability critical to housing markets.

As AI replaces higher-paying jobs, many displaced workers are forced into lower-paying roles, reducing their ability to sustain prior spending levels. Even borrowers who remain current on mortgage payments may cut discretionary spending to compensate for income uncertainty.

This creates a delayed but potentially powerful effect on housing demand and home prices.

The broader concern is structural. Mortgage underwriting models assume income stability over decades. AI disruption challenges that assumption.

As Citrini Research explains, many borrowers “borrowed against a future they can no longer afford to believe in.”

If AI continues to reshape labor markets, housing could become one of the most important transmission channels between technological disruption and financial stability.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 79 Comments

Overflow will save us all

Posted on February 27, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

NJ real estate market predicted to heat up. Here’s why

If you live here in NJ, this probably won’t surprise you at all.

A new real estate forecast says the housing markets most likely to heat up in 2026 include the outskirts of New York City.

That list specifically calls out Northern New Jersey right alongside Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Fairfield County, Connecticut.

In other words, once again, Jersey is the overflow valve for a lot of people.

The prediction is pretty simple. More companies are pulling people back into the office, at least part-time. So the “work from anywhere” dream is fading for a lot of folks. That means people still want space and sanity, but they also need to be close enough to commute. Enter New Jersey.

…And it’s not just about work.

A lot of New Yorkers are leaving the city because they’re exhausted by the politics, the quality-of-life issues, and yes, what some are calling the Mamdani factor. Whether it’s crime, schools, taxes, or just feeling like the city isn’t what it used to be, people are voting with their feet. And many of them are landing right here.

If you already own here, that probably means higher values. If you’re trying to buy, buckle up. More competition is coming, especially in commuter-friendly towns.

New Jersey keeps ending up in these “hot market” lists, not because we’re trendy, but because we’re practical. We sit right next to one of the biggest cities in the world, and we offer things that the city can’t like space and stability, and (even though we’re the most densely populated state), the breathing room.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Unrest | 221 Comments

Chi’s New Thread

Posted on February 26, 2026 by grim

As requested.

From the NYT:

The Housing Market Is Tilting Back Toward Buyers

Rukmini Callimachi, who covers real estate, polled five housing economists to report this story.

On the windswept coast of North Carolina, Ron Hertrich has spent months trying — and failing — to sell his parents’ 40-year-old beach house. He scrubbed off the old paint and repainted the walls a warm “shiitake beige.” He replaced the furniture, including a glass-top dining table with rattan legs, with something more modern.

When that didn’t work, he offered a $10,000 cash “incentive” that a prospective buyer could use as they pleased.

Despite all this, the condo — which sits 100 yards from the water line — has become a monument to the shifting tides of the real estate market. After just two showings in two months, his real estate agent advised him to take new pictures in an effort to relaunch the listing this spring.

The same thing happened hundreds of miles away in Atlanta, where Aimée Berry, 56, put her furniture in storage and lived in a perpetual state of readiness, only for a total of six people to come see her one-bedroom condo in six months.

“It was depressing,” she said, explaining that she too was advised to take her home off the market.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 63 Comments