Welcome to another edition of Lowball!
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
To keep the list length reasonable, we’re going to use 20% as the minimum percentage off OLP to be considered a Lowball!
Caveat Emptor!
Bergen County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 241277 |
Wyckoff Twp. |
$1,200,000 |
$840,000 |
$772,000 |
35.7% |
$428,000 |
| 240289 |
East Rutherford Boro |
$630,000 |
$459,000 |
$435,000 |
31.0% |
$195,000 |
| 237865 |
Franklin Lakes Boro |
$2,950,000 |
$2,950,000 |
$2,112,500 |
28.4% |
$837,500 |
| 240653 |
Fair Lawn Boro |
$524,900 |
$424,000 |
$385,000 |
26.7% |
$139,900 |
| 235346 |
Lyndhurst Twp. |
$609,900 |
$489,000 |
$450,000 |
26.2% |
$159,900 |
| 242097 |
Garfield City |
$399,000 |
$349,000 |
$295,000 |
26.1% |
$104,000 |
| 241453 |
Wyckoff Twp. |
$1,250,000 |
$1,025,000 |
$965,000 |
22.8% |
$285,000 |
| 230922 |
Ramsey Boro |
$849,925 |
$669,925 |
$659,000 |
22.5% |
$190,925 |
| 243769 |
Franklin Lakes Boro |
$2,900,000 |
$2,900,000 |
$2,275,000 |
21.6% |
$625,000 |
Essex County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 240147 |
Newark City |
$159,900 |
$84,900 |
$83,000 |
48.1% |
$76,900 |
| 240172 |
Newark City |
$141,900 |
$84,900 |
$75,000 |
47.1% |
$66,900 |
| 241360 |
East Orange City |
$190,000 |
$131,500 |
$115,000 |
39.5% |
$75,000 |
| 241534 |
Livingston Twp. |
$750,000 |
$500,000 |
$500,000 |
33.3% |
$250,000 |
| 240451 |
Belleville Twp. |
$194,900 |
$172,500 |
$136,000 |
30.2% |
$58,900 |
| 243097 |
Millburn Twp. |
$1,050,000 |
$1,050,000 |
$740,000 |
29.5% |
$310,000 |
| 241921 |
North Caldwell Boro |
$570,000 |
$499,900 |
$405,000 |
28.9% |
$165,000 |
| 241309 |
Newark City |
$259,900 |
$209,900 |
$190,000 |
26.9% |
$69,900 |
| 237819 |
Bloomfield Twp. |
$339,900 |
$289,900 |
$252,000 |
25.9% |
$87,900 |
| 237719 |
Livingston Twp. |
$799,000 |
$639,000 |
$595,000 |
25.5% |
$204,000 |
| 243467 |
South Orange Village Twp. |
$1,259,000 |
$998,900 |
$950,000 |
24.5% |
$309,000 |
| 245075 |
Belleville Twp. |
$378,170 |
$378,170 |
$288,170 |
23.8% |
$90,000 |
| 244199 |
Newark City |
$149,900 |
$124,900 |
$117,000 |
21.9% |
$32,900 |
| 242822 |
Millburn Twp. |
$729,000 |
$609,000 |
$570,000 |
21.8% |
$159,000 |
| 239670 |
West Orange Twp. |
$459,000 |
$378,876 |
$360,000 |
21.6% |
$99,000 |
| 239608 |
Belleville Twp. |
$455,000 |
$369,000 |
$358,000 |
21.3% |
$97,000 |
| 241118 |
Fairfield Twp. |
$539,000 |
$475,000 |
$425,000 |
21.2% |
$114,000 |
| 244247 |
West Orange Twp. |
$379,000 |
$359,000 |
$300,000 |
20.8% |
$79,000 |
Morris County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 232870 |
Chatham Twp. |
$1,995,000 |
$1,495,000 |
$916,000 |
54.1% |
$1,079,000 |
| 241989 |
Harding Twp. |
$2,195,000 |
$1,600,000 |
$1,250,000 |
43.1% |
$945,000 |
| 237165 |
Butler Boro |
$399,900 |
$319,900 |
$270,000 |
32.5% |
$129,900 |
| 240684 |
Montville Twp. |
$1,225,000 |
$999,900 |
$860,000 |
29.8% |
$365,000 |
| 244038 |
Morris Twp. |
$939,000 |
$750,000 |
$660,000 |
29.7% |
$279,000 |
| 241269 |
Riverdale Boro |
$355,000 |
$290,000 |
$255,000 |
28.2% |
$100,000 |
| 242074 |
Lincoln Park Boro |
$349,900 |
$259,900 |
$255,000 |
27.1% |
$94,900 |
| 242169 |
Denville Twp. |
$310,000 |
$284,900 |
$230,000 |
25.8% |
$80,000 |
| 238321 |
Mendham Twp. |
$1,199,000 |
$949,000 |
$900,000 |
24.9% |
$299,000 |
| 232932 |
Randolph Twp. |
$550,000 |
$435,000 |
$415,000 |
24.5% |
$135,000 |
| 239620 |
Denville Twp. |
$429,999 |
$334,900 |
$325,000 |
24.4% |
$104,999 |
| 242631 |
Chester Boro |
$525,000 |
$450,000 |
$400,000 |
23.8% |
$125,000 |
| 236764 |
Dover Town |
$359,900 |
$299,900 |
$275,000 |
23.6% |
$84,900 |
| 241150 |
Netcong Boro |
$299,900 |
$225,000 |
$230,000 |
23.3% |
$69,900 |
| 242580 |
Lincoln Park Boro |
$405,000 |
$329,900 |
$315,000 |
22.2% |
$90,000 |
| 240309 |
Parsippany-Troy Hills Twp. |
$399,900 |
$337,500 |
$315,000 |
21.2% |
$84,900 |
| 239036 |
Mount Olive Twp. |
$459,000 |
$390,000 |
$365,000 |
20.5% |
$94,000 |
| 241513 |
Wharton Boro |
$249,900 |
$215,000 |
$198,940 |
20.4% |
$50,960 |
Passaic County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 236418 |
Wayne Twp. |
$169,900 |
$79,900 |
$55,000 |
67.6% |
$114,900 |
| 241630 |
Wayne Twp. |
$69,900 |
$69,900 |
$45,160 |
35.4% |
$24,740 |
| 241505 |
Haledon Boro |
$529,900 |
$449,900 |
$383,000 |
27.7% |
$146,900 |
| 241396 |
Pompton Lakes Boro |
$419,900 |
$345,000 |
$305,000 |
27.4% |
$114,900 |
| 241642 |
Passaic City |
$289,000 |
$229,900 |
$215,000 |
25.6% |
$74,000 |
| 240484 |
West Milford Twp. |
$135,000 |
$135,000 |
$103,000 |
23.7% |
$32,000 |
| 239170 |
Wayne Twp. |
$1,389,000 |
$1,199,900 |
$1,085,000 |
21.9% |
$304,000 |
| 243664 |
Wayne Twp. |
$924,900 |
$799,999 |
$725,000 |
21.6% |
$199,900 |
| 243473 |
Hawthorne Boro |
$489,000 |
$429,900 |
$385,000 |
21.3% |
$104,000 |
| 242706 |
Clifton City |
$389,900 |
$359,000 |
$310,000 |
20.5% |
$79,900 |
| 239972 |
Paterson City |
$439,900 |
$380,000 |
$350,000 |
20.4% |
$89,900 |
Somerset County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 2451946 |
Watchung Boro |
$975,000 |
$775,000 |
$620,000 |
36.4% |
$355,000 |
| 2392687 |
Peapack Gladstone Boro |
$499,000 |
$399,000 |
$340,000 |
31.9% |
$159,000 |
| 2416743 |
Hillsborough Twp. |
$374,900 |
$299,900 |
$277,500 |
26.0% |
$97,400 |
| 2433101 |
North Plainfield Boro |
$315,000 |
$279,000 |
$235,000 |
25.4% |
$80,000 |
| 2446635 |
Bound Brook Boro |
$310,000 |
$274,900 |
$235,000 |
24.2% |
$75,000 |
| 2403792 |
Bridgewater Twp. |
$560,000 |
$455,000 |
$427,000 |
23.8% |
$133,000 |
| 2396187 |
Watchung Boro |
$1,499,000 |
$1,499,000 |
$1,155,000 |
22.9% |
$344,000 |
| 2418420 |
Bound Brook Boro |
$339,900 |
$299,900 |
$265,000 |
22.0% |
$74,900 |
Sussex County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 2236725 |
Fredon Twp. |
$1,100,000 |
$890,000 |
$675,000 |
38.6% |
$425,000 |
| 2425734 |
Newton Town |
$334,900 |
$219,900 |
$219,000 |
34.6% |
$115,900 |
| 2418768 |
Hopatcong Boro |
$384,900 |
$269,900 |
$265,000 |
31.2% |
$119,900 |
| 2419901 |
Stillwater Twp. |
$299,999 |
$229,000 |
$219,900 |
26.7% |
$80,099 |
| 2306895 |
Andover Boro |
$319,000 |
$299,000 |
$236,000 |
26.0% |
$83,000 |
| 2323293 |
Hardyston Twp. |
$679,900 |
$549,000 |
$508,000 |
25.3% |
$171,900 |
| 2421170 |
Byram Twp. |
$354,900 |
$294,900 |
$265,920 |
25.1% |
$88,980 |
| 2423114 |
Byram Twp. |
$319,000 |
$263,000 |
$243,000 |
23.8% |
$76,000 |
| 2395268 |
Hopatcong Boro |
$399,997 |
$329,000 |
$305,000 |
23.7% |
$94,997 |
| 2408464 |
Vernon Twp. |
$265,000 |
$229,900 |
$205,000 |
22.6% |
$60,000 |
| 2370721 |
Hampton Twp. |
$319,900 |
$280,000 |
$250,000 |
21.9% |
$69,900 |
| 2415402 |
Hampton Twp. |
$274,900 |
$240,000 |
$215,000 |
21.8% |
$59,900 |
| 2409837 |
Frankford Twp. |
$239,000 |
$197,000 |
$187,500 |
21.5% |
$51,500 |
| 2411234 |
Vernon Twp. |
$275,000 |
$229,000 |
$217,000 |
21.1% |
$58,000 |
| 2451599 |
Lafayette Twp. |
$283,000 |
$274,000 |
$225,000 |
20.5% |
$58,000 |
Hunterdon County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 2367977 |
Hampton Boro |
$325,000 |
$245,000 |
$240,000 |
26.2% |
$85,000 |
| 2399454 |
Clinton Twp. |
$550,000 |
$479,900 |
$409,000 |
25.6% |
$141,000 |
| 2410043 |
Clinton Twp. |
$389,900 |
$304,900 |
$292,000 |
25.1% |
$97,900 |
| 2388301 |
Tewksbury Twp. |
$2,095,000 |
$1,699,950 |
$1,611,600 |
23.1% |
$483,400 |
| 2392418 |
Readington Twp. |
$924,000 |
$750,000 |
$715,000 |
22.6% |
$209,000 |
| 2443444 |
High Bridge Boro |
$242,000 |
$229,900 |
$190,000 |
21.5% |
$52,000 |
| 2428687 |
East Amwell Twp. |
$347,500 |
$309,900 |
$275,000 |
20.9% |
$72,500 |
| 2400049 |
Readington Twp. |
$575,000 |
$525,000 |
$460,000 |
20.0% |
$115,000 |
Warren County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 2414608 |
Phillipsburg Town |
$116,900 |
$69,900 |
$33,000 |
71.8% |
$83,900 |
| 2368439 |
Washington Twp. |
$301,900 |
$214,900 |
$195,000 |
35.4% |
$106,900 |
| 2430255 |
Belvidere Twp. |
$94,900 |
$79,900 |
$65,000 |
31.5% |
$29,900 |
| 2446890 |
Oxford Twp. |
$26,000 |
$22,000 |
$19,000 |
26.9% |
$7,000 |
| 2380755 |
Frelinghuysen Twp. |
$599,000 |
$479,000 |
$447,500 |
25.3% |
$151,500 |
| 2424875 |
Washington Twp. |
$249,000 |
$199,999 |
$192,000 |
22.9% |
$57,000 |
| 2431122 |
Blairstown Twp. |
$324,900 |
$289,900 |
$255,000 |
21.5% |
$69,900 |
| 2365615 |
Franklin Twp. |
$225,000 |
$225,000 |
$180,000 |
20.0% |
$45,000 |
Union County
| MLS |
Town |
OLP |
LP |
SP |
% off OLP |
$ off OLP |
| 2436996 |
Elizabeth City |
$499,999 |
$350,000 |
$300,000 |
40.0% |
$199,999 |
| 2452459 |
Springfield Twp. |
$499,999 |
$349,999 |
$321,000 |
35.8% |
$178,999 |
| 2419493 |
Union Twp. |
$468,850 |
$369,850 |
$340,000 |
27.5% |
$128,850 |
| 2409663 |
Plainfield City |
$232,000 |
$169,000 |
$169,000 |
27.2% |
$63,000 |
| 2434622 |
New Providence Boro |
$579,000 |
$500,000 |
$425,000 |
26.6% |
$154,000 |
| 2242383 |
Roselle Boro |
$324,900 |
$249,900 |
$240,000 |
26.1% |
$84,900 |
| 2318447 |
Elizabeth City |
$344,900 |
$279,900 |
$260,000 |
24.6% |
$84,900 |
| 2391449 |
Elizabeth City |
$440,000 |
$369,000 |
$338,000 |
23.2% |
$102,000 |
| 2412073 |
Cranford Twp. |
$485,000 |
$419,000 |
$375,000 |
22.7% |
$110,000 |
| 2439139 |
Elizabeth City |
$400,000 |
$400,000 |
$310,000 |
22.5% |
$90,000 |
| 2426297 |
Berkeley Heights Twp. |
$665,000 |
$549,000 |
$525,000 |
21.1% |
$140,000 |
| 2250306 |
Elizabeth City |
$415,000 |
$379,900 |
$330,000 |
20.5% |
$85,000 |
| 2444710 |
Rahway City |
$274,900 |
$249,900 |
$220,000 |
20.0% |
$54,900 |
Looks like I had a bug in my extract/reformat script, I cut off the last digit of the MLS number for some of these.
If you need the full number, just let me know.
Do you have any data from Mercer or Middlesex counties?
Good Morning Grim …and thank you!!!!
gw,
Sorry, but I don’t belong to the MLS systems that cover those areas.
Wow.
For Bergen, with the except of those two F Lakes houses, it seems that the sellers do the majority of the price cutting before they give in and sell. Seems to demonstrate that going in thinking you’re going to get 25% off the current list price is unrealistic. The sellers have to get there themselves.
Grim,
I don’t have access to MLS, could you provide addresses for the 2 Readington (Hunterdon) Properties.
(A long-time lurker, thinking about bolting from NJ)
Your site is a wonderful public service!
RD
#5 The sellers have to get there themselves.
Yes, potential buyers as in bidders have to help them get there.
#7 3b
I agree with you. The more reasonable bids that sellers receive, the quicker they may come to reality. Right now, people just aren’t even trying to make bids, people seem to be waiting for the prices to come down.
However, I still think 20% off bids have a very slim chance of being accepted. Sure, later, the numbers end up being 20% off from OLP to sale price, but the sellers did it themselves via LP.
I’ve made multiple bids in the past 2 years and every one of them precipitated a drop in the asking price besides one. That seller didn’t drop asking once for 6 months and then withdrew the listing. It was overpriced in Jan 07 and it will be way overpriced when they re-list in Jan 08.
I’ll post the XLS tables later.
Realize that I simply sort by the % off OLP field and skim the top portion off.
If I redo the calculation to give me a % off LP, the results are entirely different.
9 South Ryland Road - $460k
14 Heath - $715k
Grim -
Is there anyway to just post the addresses of the lowballs in your spreadsheet? Or are you prevented from doing so?
I’m sure it’s a lot of work to do it on an individual request basis. Would love to see the addresses for the Millburn & Chatham lowballs. Thanks in advance!
Interesting to note that these lowballs are taking place in the under $1mm homes category. Previously most lowballs were in the over $1mm home category as supply there was very large. Now this is filtering down to lower priced homes and ones that can qualify for conventional mortgages as well. Definitely a downward filtering price effect from my observation.
Thanks Much!
#8 AnN: I think , or at least for myself, waiting is a strategy , sort of like wait for them to become wounded, lower the price, still no sale, then I bid.
Whether it works or not, remains to be seen.
If the seller thinks they have the upper hand, they win, if they have to reduce their OLP, then they become weakend.
I will be bidding on a house late Jan, early Feb, I fully expect to be rebuffed, initally. B I ut have no doubt that as the year progresses, I will be successful.
I will keep all posted.
3b
I think sellers have to get there themselves personally, but every reasonable bid that is put in by buyers helps them get into reality. We put a 16% lowball in (roughly a 2004 comp) that was utterly rejected complete with insults thrown back at us. But I’m sure we chipped away for the next person who tries. As someone said on here, sellers see silence as affirmation.
I usually do not have a problem if the sellers do not lower their listing price. If the house has been on the market for a while, they will still be open to lower offers, and the higher price may keep away other potential bidders (as well as increase the likelihood of the house staying on the market even longer)
17 Eagle
Do you say that from personal experience? I’m not sure if you are an agent, or buyer…
I see a peak-or-higher price as a sign that you’re dealing with stubborn sellers that are not in reality, making it less likely that a buyer will get the house with a low offer (let’s say 10 to 15% off). Add in a high days on market, and I’m convinced of it.
Thanks grim.
#10, does that mean re-lists don’t make it into the lowball category, i.e. if they re-list at a lower price rather then doing a price reduction on the same listing #?
Also, just curious do you have an average DOM for lowballs above?
Anne - I think you are right, but we’re pretty bold and have bid $450 on a $650 list. Trust me when I say $450 is spot on -MLS ID# 2420721 in Sparta (Sussex Co). We knew our chances were slim, and didn’t get it, but we feel we did a bit of public service providing valuable seller feedback (current list is $599 or $2500/month rent). Ages ago (20+ years) my Aunt and Uncle bid $150k on a $200k listing. My Uncle almost sh1t himself when they accepted the offer. He put in lowball bids to shut my Aunt up who was house hunting without him.
Grim, ugly numbers. Could you post the addresses for the two Millburn Twp properties? Thx.
11 Bruce Circle - $740k
22 Canterbury - $570k
MLS ID# 2424370
I got lowball offer accepted:
Original price: 1129000
LP: 995000
accepted price: 910000.
Home inspection result: a lot of termite. I hesitate to continue.
I always check the property’s highest price(Around 2006 comp) and make 22% lowball offer. I haven’t suceeded yet. At the depression era the house price came down about 30% from the top and hit the bottom. Let see how much % will come down till the bottom.
Wow, what happened to 11 Bruce Circle?
This looks like a major lowball for Short Hills.
Thanks Grim!
Was the spreadsheet posted for the lowball? Did I miss it?
Sorry, changed the program I used to pull the data and I don’t have the spreadsheets readily available this time. If you let me know which county, I can recompile it for you.
I am glad that I am not a seller right now. I am looking to purchase late this year and will certainly not buy anything unless it costs me the same net amount or less to purchase over renting a place. I fully expect to see another 20 percent downfall in Southern California this year!
Grim,
I’d be interested in seeing the Essex & Morris data.
Much appreciated.
Grim,
If you get a chance I am looking for sales data in Union County, I’m looking mostly in Mountainside and Westfield. Thanks.
Ray
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