Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

Posted on January 5, 2008 by grim

Now Open, Part II!

Prior weekend thread closed due to comment overflow.

This entry was posted in General. Bookmark the permalink.

228 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:23 am

From the Star Ledger:

Meadowlands project facing foreclosure

The long-troubled project to build golf links and thousands of homes on Meadowlands landfills is now facing foreclosure.

Wachovia, which leads a group of banks backing the EnCap project, is demanding the 785-acre property be sold to pay off $149 million in loans and unpaid interest, according to court documents filed late last month.

Michael Cohen, special counsel at the Trump Organization, which took over operations at the site in November, said he was “very disappointed” Wachovia has taken up a court fight against EnCap, “after all the substantial work that we have performed.”

Trump is being paid $15 million over three years to lend his name and expertise to the $1 billion project.

The cleanup will continue in spite of the filing, which EnCap received on Thursday, Cohen said.

The potential legal battle could delay progress, but EnCap’s agreement with the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission guarantees the landfills will be cleaned up even if the land is foreclosed on or sold, according to Chris Gale, a spokesman for the commission.

“We expect some minimal time–certainly a few months–will be required to sort out the situation, but our efforts will be directed toward continued progress,” Gale said in a statement.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:24 am

From the Star Ledger:

Builder of Asbury luxury site sells to investment company

The developer of a luxury housing complex in Asbury Park has bailed out of the project and sold the unfinished building and surrounding property to a new investment firm.

Kushner Companies, owner of the Wesley Grove townhouse and condominium complex, sold the project to Washington D.C.-based Madison Marquette on Monday in a deal that still has to be approved by the city council.

The sale, for an undisclosed sum, comes just three weeks after Hoboken-based Metro Homes LLC stopped work on another upscale oceanfront complex in the city. The back-to-back announcements may be a signal the revitalization of Asbury Park’s long-ailing oceanfront could be veering off course and that the city needs to change its plans, one city official said.

Councilman James Keady said Kushner most likely backed out of the deal because poor sales of the units are cutting into the company’s profits.

“I think what’s happening now is that reality is catching up with the hype — the hype being from the developers’ side of things that you can get rich quick in Asbury Park, and from the real estate side that this bubble is going to last forever,” Keady said.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:28 am

From the Wall Street Journal:

Economists React: ‘Looking for a Bunker to Hide in’

The sharp jump in the unemployment rate — from 4.7% to 5.0% — may be the most alarming feature of this report. Single-month increases that large occur only rarely and most often near business cycle turning points. Indeed, the last time the unemployment rate rose 0.35 in a single month was September 2001. Tellingly, the jobless rate also jumped 0.3% in January of 2001, just before the business cycle peak in March 2001. –David Resler, Nomura Securities

The rise in the unemployment rate is very disturbing. Over the last year, the unemployment rate has risen 0.6% points from its low and since 1949 the unemployment rate has never risen by this magnitude without the economy being in recession (this period covers ten recessions). Other economic indicators such as jobless claims and ISM for December are more consistent with sharp slowdown than with recession, but we now put ourselves on recession watch. –Bear Stearns

This data shows an economy slowing sharply — the first quarter of 2008 is shaping up as a negative quarter for GDP growth — and the risk of recession is rising sharply. At least a [quarter percentage point] rate cut by the Fed on January 30 is a cast-iron certainty, and a [half percentage point] move is now a strong possibility. –Nigel Gault, Global Insight

December’s bleak jobs report represents the siren call that this business cycle is just about over. We’re about to tilt over to the other side of the economic curve and begin the downswing. The only real question now is whether the economy will contract for one or two quarters. One thing is fairly certain, though. The Federal Reserve rate is now compelled to cut rates by a [half percentage point] at their January 29-30th meeting — and they may even move earlier than that! –Bernard Baumohl, Economic Outlook Group
…
Nearly 70% of the manufacturing industries reduced their workforces. There weren’t a whole lot of job gains in the service sectors. Health care and education, as usual, were strong as well as professional services. On the other hand, retail, transportation, information and financial sectors cut back… Less than one week into the New Year and some may be looking for a bunker to hide in. –Naroff Economic Advisors
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:32 am

GRIM do agents get a count of homes listed per town off of GSMLS on their search site.I
was wondering if you could give me the # for Vernon.There are so many the system will
not post whole town have to do it in sections.My only other recourse is to count them by section & there are well over 350 by my est.
Stu says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:33 am

Greetings from India,

Bi states: “Technically, homebuilder index etf (XHB) is testing nov. low at $17. if we see strong rebound next few days, the bottom is here. otherwise, we may have long way to go.”

I’ve only one thing to say. Have you peaked at my SRS?

As for the ChiFi/Dreamweaver debate, I too do not use any financial advisement, and have performed remarkably well. I almost always beat the indexes and attribute my patience to my success. It also helps to not follow the herd. I agree with Dream’s argument that indexing tends to perform better than investing in your average mutual fund, but that has nothing to do with the fact that financial advisement for those that are not financially savvy is indeed a smart decision.

I am certainly not the most knowledgeable investor, but use simple strategies to perform well. Following all of the definitions given yesterday, I am solidly middle class. What separates me from my peer group is…

I own a 2-family home in a fantastic location. I drive a 1995 Civic. I use coupons. I don’t spoil my child. I do not adjust my lifestyle upward whenever I get an increase in my salary. I do not own a flat screen HD television. I have no debt besides a small car loan at .5% and my mortgage at 5.25%. Most importantly, my wife buys into these strategies.

In a nutshell, I turned 10K into 150K at the peak of the tech bubble. I was smart enough to get out when my nut dropped to 125K. This strategy is not that different than my plans to buy a 2nd home and rent out my 2 family once prices drop to a reasonable level.

It did not take a brain surgeon to determine that all things RE were overvalued, hence my decision to short RE.

Ultimately, I have serious tax issues to deal with between my equity investing, my rental property, paying AMT, saving for my child’s college, etc. These issues are beyond my current ability to calculate the most prudent decisions going forward. Therefore, I will seek financial advice to help me out.

The moral of the story is, mass generalizations usually become fodder for debate.

BTW, I mow my own lawn and blow my own snow ;)

Chances are, you probably figured that out already.

Good Morning Grim.
Confused In NJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:29 am

Tax Planning is an area where Professional Help can be very cost effective. It is difficult to keep abrest of the ever changing Local, State & Federal Tax changes. Although Tax Software can take the pain out of Tax Filing, it is post facto, versus Tax Planning which is pre facto. Something as simple as Cutting your own Lawn, blowing your own Snow, cleaning your own house, has three positive attributes, 1. Cost Savings for non skilled work, 2. sadly, Excercise, which the Fattening of America needs, and 3. sadly, Corzine Tax avoidance.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:32 am

mike,

379 as of this morning
HEHEHE says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:37 am

Kannekt Klowns are bad mouthing this website for not having ads from soon to be out of business real estate developers.
Cindy says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:44 am

Good Morning All,

Yes, it is 5AM in California..
Yes, I do get up about 4AM even on W/E. -at school by 7:00 M-F.

Grim, I am curious, Have you found your dream home yet? When do you all feel the bottom will hit in N.J? Calif.?

Cindy
Outofstater says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:46 am

#3 It’s nice to see that economists at last have a grasp of the fr–king obvious.
#5 Stu – Way to go! A voice of reason in the trashy wilderness of consumerism!
Outofstater says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:48 am

Cindy – Belated welcome to you and has the storm affected you at all?
Jayne - Grim's Lovely Wife says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:48 am

Mega Comp Killer in Watchung.

445 Johnston Drive

Purchased: 4/26/2006
Purchase Price: $915,000

MLS# 2468806
Short Sale
Currently Asking: $749,900
Stu says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:55 am

Thanks #10 Out of Stater.

If you think the average American is consumerist, you should see the way India is going.

It seems every inch of free space (of which there is not terribly a lot of here in Chennai) is dominated by ads and billboards hawking everything from overpriced cars to diamonds to fancy clothes. It’s shocking to see such promotions smack in the middle of the most deplorable conditions I have ever witnessed.

For what it’s worth, as bad as life here appears, the optimism shared by the entire community is unparalleled. Although hypocritical like so many other religious cultures, the battle between consumerism and tradition is evident everywhere one looks.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:58 am

HEHEHE,

I turn down advertising requests on a daily basis. Most advertisers are attracted because my site comes up in the first page results on a search for “New Jersey Real Estate” at Google (along side companies like Weichert, Realtor.com, Remax, and others).

I have no desire to monetize this site.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:59 am

Grim Thanks thats a high # for dead of winter.I have seen some new listings coming
on as I go thru GSMLS daily & know most of the houses for sale(more intune with housing stock than most of the agents in my area).It would seem sellers are trying to get out for spring early & or selling before they lose even more.The disparity in pricing between similiar homes is 15% & I ‘m
disregarding REO & short sales.By June -Aug.
it will surly be a 25-30% off peak on a majority off homes.I think that that is just the start & this will be a long protracted decline,due to are remote location.I may wait till JAN-FEB 09 & then
buy as wife is now on board.We shall see.
Cindy says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:00 am

Outofstater #11

Hi, The storms (supposedly 3 in a row – we are still waiting for #3) are dropping lots of snow on the Sierras above me – the ski resorts are ecstatic. Just needed rain and a bit of extra wind here locally – Clovis, CA.
Cindy
afe says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:06 am

new 29 out of 30 in Zagats. anyone ever eaten here?

restaurantnicholas.com

PGC wife-

I was just there this week, it was excellent. highly recommended.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:09 am

Cindy,

Yes ma’am, I have.

http://www.stickleyhomeforsale.com/

http://www.realtor.com/realestate/morris+plains+boro-nj-07950-1087896188/
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:24 am

As there are 30791 properties on GSMLS & 379 are in Vernon that is over 10% of entire
stock in my town.Wow I would say that inventory sale/pace in monthes is much higher than #s for the rest.I don’t have sales & the expertise to produce that #.But it must be well into 15 months supply.If anyone can supply sales & method I would like to try?
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:25 am

Grim thats some place, hope you get it!
rhymingrealtor says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:28 am

The fundraisers are a way to keep tuition down, but have people with extra money subsidize other families.

Pat,

That is not only a problem with catholic/private schools. Our fundraisers help to pay for enrichment programs and class trips. Our school policy has been ( I disagree ) all or none so they do not ask parents to pay toward class trips.Class trips can only be taken if they are paid in full by the PTA. So in the end the parents who participate subsidize the ones who don’t. Nobody understands how extremely tight money can be better than I, but if that is the case they could volunteer their time, they don’t, because they don’t have to.
KL
I am surprised than catholic schools allows non participation in fundraisers around here its either the tuition or the fundraiser money no way around it.
rhymingrealtor says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:39 am

Stu,

I agree with all of your points….. except, you really should get a flat screen TV. I don’t even watch TV, but my family are sports nuts, it is incredible and just walking by your are compelled/almost obligated to look for a at least a minute, a day does’nt go by that I am not amazed at the picture quality. We have had it since last years superbowl ( my son a Bears fan since he started being a fan) It was a good price then and they are getting priced better everyday. Try it Stu you’ll be amazed.

KL

Again I reiterate I am not a TV watcher, but d@am the HD picture is incredible.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:42 am

rhyming 21 My chilren go to public school & they still have tons of these silly things & we send in money for field trips (they are very cheap like 5 bucks).The money goes to PTA,I just hate the prize thing as I posted last night.By the way we have cupcakes,cookies on Bdays & holiday parties.Some teachers through the years have asked us to bring in healthy snack.I
comply but its a party so let them eat cake really.We eat well at home so going off the healthy food for a party is no big deal.PC bull if you ask me.
rhymingrealtor says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:44 am

Mike,

Yes there are 30791 properties for sale, keep in mind that is rentals, business , multifamily, commercial, 379 is only SFH in vernon, and the absorption rate you are looking for is currently 10.5 to 11 months supply.

KL
Willow says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:50 am

#95

I know I’m a little behind here but I wanted to comment on kids mowing lawns. My dad is not pleased with his lawn service so I suggested a 14 y.o. boy who I know mows lawns. Very responsible, etc. My dad doesn’t want to rely on a kid. What is that about? He doesn’t like his service because they charge a lot and sometimes don’t do what they bill for. A kid would probably be better than the service he has.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:51 am

24 KL So it is more than 10% of total SFH on GSMLS.Wow again.That rate just for Vernon
right.If so how would you say that compares with overall rate for GSMLS.
Ann says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:54 am

Essex 286 on previous thread

“I’m not sure what the issue is here? You say you lowballed and won….now are you looking for the seller to make $1500 in repairs? Or are they in a position to dump you in favor of the higher offer?”

Right. Our sellers WANT us to dump them because they got a much higher offer this week. Their only chance is that they tick us off by not doing this 1,500 of repairs. If they didn’t have another buying, I’m sure they would be doing the repairs.

As far as us, obviously, if we still want the house, we won’t be getting any repairs or credits from them. On the other hand, it’s also our last chance to exit the deal.

The other buyers had seen the house a while back, before us, but didn’t put an offer in, said they wanted to wait until the spring, for the “price to come down.” Then when they got word that we got it, they came back and had to put in a better offer than us.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:55 am

Willow tell dad to give it a chance & give a hard working kid a break, appeal to his work ethic which his gen. has & is rare in 14 year olds.It just might work.
Cindy says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:55 am

Wow Grim…All I can say is WoW!

Any chance of getting it? Have you tried yet? Anyone working on it with you?

What a dream home..
Cindy
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:06 am

Any chance of getting it? Have you tried yet? Anyone working on it with you?

Went under attorney review in December after the price was reduced from $1.175m. Very nice place, I’ve driven by on a number of occasions.

However, I’m a bit more partial to the Hapgoods located over in Mountain Lakes (I’m sure this means nothing to you). This house, while not out of place, isn’t located amongst similar homes. The Hapgoods in Mtn. Lakes are, and it makes for a more picturesque community, despite the horrible McMansions dotted around the neighborhood. My preference would be for an untouched Hapgood, unfortunately, too many of them have been defiled.

I cry when I walk though these homes and see that the original chestnut wainscoting and boxed beam ceilings have been replaced with sheet rock and MDF molding.

Oh, but that crown moulding is just so beautiful. Is that real polyurethane foam?

I work with myself, I’m a real estate agent.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:09 am

ANN still on the fence I see, do you really love it,if 6 monthes from now a house you would be happy in 30 50 k cheaper are you going to be kicking yourself for not getting out of deal.Is this price well within your means,you just love it,& the hell if I save money in 6 months GO for it,but don’t look back.Prices will come down & maybe you spend the same & get a dream home or a much smaller payment if thats what you think as you lie in bed then run.
Stu says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:10 am

Window A/C(s) Grim?

I’m surprised you would except this in your dream home! :P
Orion says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:11 am

From New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/realestate/06njzo.html?ref=realestate
Stu says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:13 am

Except = accept…sorry !
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:14 am

Another reason why I’d prefer to handle the renovations myself. Small duct high velocity systems have made central AC retrofits a painless endeavor.
afe says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:21 am

But Grim,

” a painless endeavor” just does not seem your style…
Frank says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:21 am

#12,
This house is worth 400K at most.
Ann says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:28 am

31 Mike

The “good” stuff is still selling, albeit not quite for peak price anymore.

This house is a good example. We got it for about a 2004 price, but had the timing been off, we would have lost it to these other folks.

The biggest issue is that I don’t think it’s going to be only a few months to see the more big price drops, so how long do we want to wait? We did get a good deal on this house, today, as evidenced by the fact someone else is willing to pay more for it!

Got to decide by Monday!
Cindy says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:29 am

Grim,
Had a circa 1910 Bungalow (sp.?) in Oregon – purchased for $18,500 in 1976. It had painted over stained glass (tulip design) built-in cupboards in the dining area that I had to have cleaned up…travesty.

Small 2 bedroom upstairs with a bath in between – you know, with the slanted ceilings. Had to completely redo wiring, insulate, tear off the roof etc. Added a 1/2 bath downstairs in the ample laundry room…lost that. Can’t look back..

Cindy
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:37 am

Ann Just because the other buyer doesn’t have a clue is not evidence.Anyone who over bids a deal in this market is not an informed buyer(I could use that as evidence).Yes it may take more time,I know the reasone you don’t want to wait.So go back to 31,but leave the other buyer out of your desission.Its about you as I posted in 31.
PGC says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:38 am

Todays question.

You are a realtor trying to sell your own house.
http://tinyurl.com/3258hx
The house is in the top of the price range in the town and only a small number of buyers would be shopping for a house at that price.

You office gets a lising for comparable house that is slightly cheaper. How do you market the other listing?

http://tinyurl.com/34ovw5
PGC says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:44 am

jb 41 in moderation.
verypatientwife says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:45 am

#40 – I agree with you regarding uniformed buyers. Just happened to us. House for sale in May 07 629K- in Sept reduced to $585, we offered $535 in Nov. – Seller came back 2 days before x-mas and countered $560. Seller said they had a “young couple” come in at $545. We went back as final $540 (outdated bathrooms I can live with but not an outdated kitchen). Young couple went up to the $560 price (seller is waiting to get mortgage committment from them). We have 20% down, qualified buyer and no need to sell our home. We walked and decided to see what else comes up in the spring. BTW, home selling in the same neighborhood for $565 listed with realtor.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:59 am

VPW 42 There is a sucker born every day as long as its not us.You did right.Lets see if they get a mortgage.I have one by me that I thouhgt I lost sold went of market
3-4 months guess what back on 20 k cheaper.I’m thinking about a lowball 30% below current price.Bank owned.
verypatientwife says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:07 am

#43 – why not try it. If you really like the house..why not try 30% off..you are not losing anything. If it’s bank owned, the banks want to offload it. Keep us posted. Good luck.
Orion says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:08 am

(18) Grim – That house is absolutely beautiful! The fireplace & architecture is stunning. They sure don’t build ’em anymore.
I’m not familiar with Hapgoods.
Cindy says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:14 am

(#45) – Not familiar with Hapgoods either but Grim – figure that Stickley could stand alone anywhere. I would have no idea if something were polyurethane…
Rich In NNJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:18 am

Jayne – Grim’s Lovely Wife

Oh noooooooooo! You’re a blogger!!

Well, more like a commenter.

But none the less, stop while you still have a life!!

I keed.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:20 am

To echo want does a hapgood look like.I searched when it was mentioned week or so ago got nothing can you post one or a link?
BC Bob says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:22 am

“Economists React: ‘Looking for a Bunker to Hide in’”

[3],

When I first found this site, I think late 2005, I stated that bunkers would be the “in” thing within a few years. Well, I have my bunker, now just trying to locate a silo.

2007 was the year of denial, now comes 2008, the year of the reaction. The lies, distortion, deceit and fraud were patched together by rubber bands and paper clips. Now the dam is about to burst; big banks suffering from insolvency, a housing market spiraling out of control, prime mortgages destined for mammoth losses, a tapped out consumer with their hand stuck in an empty cookie jar, a deriviative market in jitters pertaining to counter party risk and rising price infaltion. Stagflation of the mid 70’s? Hopefully, that is the extent of the predicament.

On the flip side, there is really no need to to worry. John Q should just go out and burn up those cc’s. Bush is now firmly entrenched and huddled with the PPT. Forget about helicopters, orders are being placed for Russian Antonov 225’s.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:25 am

VPF 45 It would be a cash offer so I might have a chance.Still really low I just might wait afew month for them to lower then it will not be so off the wall.Its a risk but there are so many in my town there will be another.
Willow says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:30 am

Re: cupcakes in school

We are in one of the districts that has banned the cupcakes. Luckily, my one still in elementary school has a summer birthday so we don’t have to deal with it. What’s happening now is that parents are sending in small goody bags for each child in their class. One parent sent in a pencil box with fancy pencils in it. How much money do you think she spent on that compared to cupcakes. She wanted to send in apples, but the school wouldn’t let her.

Re: Kids and materialism

My daughter actually mentioned last night that she wanted to get her eyebrows done. My husband and I both laughed at her. She is 13 and many of her friends get their eyebrows done. No way in hell would we pay for that.

Re: People spending beyond their means

We are planning to send our daughter to private high school next year. We are making cuts in our spending even though we live frugally already. A friend would love to send her daughter to the same high school but, unless her daughter gets an academic scholarship, she isn’t going. These people make 3 times what we do but they spend every sent that comes in. We have much more retirement money and savings than they do. I feel sorry for the daughter because she would do so well at this school.

Of course sending our daughter to private high school will expose her to more wealth than she will ever see at home. When she went for their freshman-for-a- day program, one girl asked her what kind of car her mom drove. My daughter got it and answered: “I don’t know, a red one.” Not all the kids are like this or from wealthy homes but she will have to deal with this.
3b says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:31 am

#15 mike: It has been my belief that ther would be an an early Spring market this year, people trying to rush for the exits so to speak.

In one of the small towns I follow, 4 new listings have come on th mearket since just this past Wednesday.
mark says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:33 am

Grim:

Perhaps you could help me out.
Can you tell me what happened to MLS:2445420 and mls:2439294
SG says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:37 am

Good morning all. Waiting at Airport lounge for 2 weeks in Saudi Arabia and India. Will try to gauge RE in India little bit, but seems very overprices for now.

OT: Does anyone know any GMAT prep software with lot of test exams? Planning to give GMAT in next 2 months and need more practice.
3b says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:37 am

#38 Ann:deal on this house, today, as evidenced by the fact someone else is willing to pay more for it!

Assuming they get financing of course. As far as the big price drops I really do think you are going to see them in the next few months, but ggod luck either way.
Confused In NJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:45 am

Problem with beautiful old houses is, you have to be “Norm the master carpenter, from the Yankee Workshop” on TV, to properly maintain them, in their period style. A lot of custom millwork is needed.
Willow says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:46 am

From Baristanet.com

Talkin’ Dollars And Sense With Governor Corzine

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Hey, Essex County taxpayers! Livingston is the first stop of Governor Corzine’s four-county town hall tour, and you’re invited. The topic under discussion will be “Financial Restructuring and Debt Reduction.” The meeting will last an hour and a half – not nearly long enough to present all your good ideas. But go ahead, give it your best shot.

When: Saturday, January 12, 2008 2:00 â€“ 3:30pm.
Where: Livingston High School Auditorium, 30 Robert Harp Drive Livingston, NJ 07039

To RSVP: call 609-777-2208 or email your RSVP to Essex.rsvp@gov.state.nj.us

Sign Language Interpreters and Assistive Listening Devices will be provided.
HEHEHE says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:48 am

Grim,

Yeah, i remember you mentioning that re the advertising. It’s probably some Toll Bros ee’s posting there hoping they can get you to change your mind.
Shore Guy says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:53 am

283 “4. Shore – I actually don’t go in for the buying toys for needy kids thing either for a very simple reason – it keeps the emphasis on STUFF and on non-essentials. I’ve tried to put the emphasis on essentials (food etc.) and volunteerism (visiting sick kids and the elderly). I think it is really good for kids to see with their own eyes that they are actually very lucky for having what they have. And also how much they can do to help someone just by their presence.”

I do not disagree at all. When I said buy things for poor children, I meant our kids knit scarves, buy books (mainly with their own money), and the like. We have managed to avoid the me, me, me, more, more, more syndrome. But, sometimnes, standing in a world of materialism, it feels like we are on a slowly-sinking island. For background, we live in a top notch town, and are at the upper end of the income and net worth scales. That said, we live in a home that is below the median price, and median size. We watch CRT TV, and do not have cable, because we do not want to make TV an important part of our lives. Where most of the kids at the school focus on how much they buy, ours focus on their savings and on the importance of living debt free and of saving for college. We are like dinosaurs.
HEHEHE says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:55 am

BC,

The PPT has a busy schedule next week:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aKeJB8ShWCVk&refer=news
kettle1 says:

January 5, 2008 at 12:13 pm

BC Bob,#50

Here are some silos for you, you might even get a deal in the current market

http://www.missilebases.com/
Ann says:

January 5, 2008 at 12:16 pm

56 3b

I agree. That’s why I am so annoyed at this. This other offer is costing US $1500 bucks and it could be an offer that’s worth total crap in the end. Meanwhile we are set to close in days.

The spiteful side of me almost wants to tell them that if they don’t do the repairs we are bailing on them. Then the sellers risk getting screwed by these buyers who only made the offer once we made an offer and who wanted to go shop around and wait for the prices to drop on this one.

Here’s my favorite realtor quote of the week as they are trying to get us to drop the request for repairs, “Sellers really only do repairs on new houses, you can’t expect them to do these repairs that are normal wear and tear.”

Followed by the totally condescending, “I know when it’s your first time and you’re young it’s hard to understand this stuff.”

Too bad we’re old and have done this before.
DINJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 12:26 pm

Can anyone help out with address info/history on
GSMLS 2462348?
Thanks in advance!!!
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

January 5, 2008 at 12:39 pm

Ann-

I’m not in the market for a house, but any realtor who mouths those words to me would get their walking papers immediately. The month of January is not the time to be condescending to any buyers.
d2b says:

January 5, 2008 at 12:49 pm

Here outside of Philly, we are still allowed to bring cupcakes to school. They even schedule days in June for summer birthdays to bring in snacks

Our PTA has only had one take home fundraiser in 3 years. Instead they have a pizza night, bingo night, ice cream social, and school carnival. Raising money through events is a much better solution. I don’t have to bug friends and family and it’s a social event for everyone.
New in NJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 12:51 pm

Grim,

What a beautiful example of craftsman architecture and construction! Best of luck with it.

While it was not a genuine Stickley, my first house was a 1919 craftsman style with a 10’ deep front porch that ran the whole width of the house, and Flemish bond brick walls. The runners were unglazed red bricks, and the headers were dark bluish-red glazed. It was in the old southwest section of Roanoke, Virginia. I bought it in 1979, from the estate of the original owner, for $18.5K. My PITI payment was $186 per month, which was a bit of a stretch for me at the time since that was nearly double what I had been paying for rent.

The only things that had ever been done to the house were a roof replacement (black asphalt shingle substituted for the original red clay tiles, sadly), a mild kitchen update in the 1950s, and gas/hot water baseboard heating to replace the original coal-fired boiler with radiators. When I bought the house it still had the original 15-amp electrical service and a total of 4 fused circuits. Cleaning was definitely a weekend thing in winter because lights + vacuum cleaner = blown fuse. I got that fixed right away. It turned out to be pretty easy because there was a 18” by 18” chute that went from the attic down to the basement, which made pulling the new wiring to the second floor a snap. And I got some insulation blown into the exterior walls and ceiling.

With the deep porch, generous overhangs and massive walls with insulation it was pretty easy to keep the house cool in summer by opening the windows at night and pulling the shades in the day. I later put a window A/C unit in the kitchen because it would heat up quite a bit at dinnertime.

It had lots of stained glass light fixtures, original yew interior trim, oak floors down and cedar up. It was just like steeping back in time.

I sold it for $42K in 1986. The neighborhood was too scary for a lot of people in 1979, but by the time I sold the neighborhood had started to ‘Georgetown’ enough that its appeal had broadened considerably. In percentage terms it turned out to be the best appreciation I ever got out of any of my houses. I would have stayed there but I took a job that required a move to North Carolina.

I fell in love with the fact that it was on an alley, with a separate, rear-loading garage in the same brick style. I have always hated the 20′ garage door to the street with a house attached to the rear. All of the subsequent houses that I bought had an alley and rear garage arrangement (but sometimes attached), even though the neighborhoods were new.

My 1919 craftsman was probably the finest house that I’ll ever have.
Ann says:

January 5, 2008 at 12:52 pm

65 Fiddy

I agree, this realtor team stinks. If this deal goes bust, they are gone for sure. And I’m sure they suspect that, hence the attempts to scare us into sticking with it.

Other great quote, “In the CLASSES they tell us that the deal is never really done, until it’s done.”
lisoosh says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:02 pm

Shore – wholeheartedly agree.

Willow – I just tell my kids that unless you are Bill Gates or Warren Buffet, there will always be somebody who has more/bigger/better so they might as well get used to it. On the flip side there is always someone with less too.

d2b – I like the idea of events much more.
I’d like it even more if they just used the millions they get more effectively.
lisoosh says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:04 pm

Ann – I think you are just going to have to go a bit Zen and tune the realtors and your feelings about them out.
At the end of the day –
Do you love the house?
Can you see yourself living there for a long long time?
Is the price you are getting it at a fair one, and one you can afford?

All the rest is just noise.
BC Bob says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:17 pm

hehe [61],

Yeah, they’ll be spinning like Linda Blair [Exorcist].

Why do I picture the 2008 version of The Reconstruction Finance Corp.. Maybe a new agency, Save The Housing Agency, sell housing bonds. We can even appoint a cabinet member. Goldman can be the underwriter, suck up fees and then blow out the market, taking the opposite side of the trade.

kettle [62],

It actually looks nice. However, just looking to store grain. I want to sit back and watch the revolution, not interested in partaking in the uprising. However, I may need some of Clot’s launchers to ward off any potential assailants.
scribe says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:32 pm

Ann,

What happens on Monday? Is that the deadline for making a decision one way or another?

If the railing on the stairs is loose enough to be a hazard … does the house have to go through an inspection with the town prior to the closing?

One of the houses in my family was sold to a builder as a knockdown. A couple of days before the closing, there was an inspection by the town. The ADT had been turned off, so one of my relatives had to go out to Home Depot and get a new smoke/carbon monoxide detector and install it, and do other things – cement up the drain on an old shower in the basement (now illegal).

Is it possible that the stairs/railing would have to be remedied before the closing?
njrebear says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:40 pm

Analysts at American Economic Association now see recession as a given

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economists-say-2008-year-forget/story.aspx?guid=%7BF1BD8B30%2DB628%2D4AA3%2D853E%2D1FDD8D54A33E%7D&dist=hplatest

“The recession is likely to be a serious one,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

He estimated losses in prime mortgages will be two to three times the $160-$200 billion hit seen in the subprime sector
Ann says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:48 pm

72 scribe

The railing apparently is to code according to the town as they have the CO. However, we had a carpenter out, and he agreed that while it was technically to code, it should be strengthened. There are some other more routine repairs too like broken window seals, etc.

70 lisoosh

I do love the house, I can see us living there forever, it is the perfect house for us in many ways, I want to get on with my life, get settled, get the kids in school, all of that. We also have corporate relo benefits involved in the purchase that run out in the summer.

We can afford the house comfortably, but it’s so painful to think that you could be buying and it’s going to drop in value the second you buy it. These sellers aren’t making things easy on us by refusing to do these repairs in an effort to get us to bail on the contract.

We were told they are feeling quite angry now that they accepted our offer that was 8% below their asking price (around 04 price), since they ended up getting a better one. I guess they are not feeling too Zen right now.

Really, in my opinion, if anyone is thinking of buying right now, you just have to buy for the lowest price you can and don’t read the news and blogs like this : ) because you’ll just be miserable.

Thanks for your advice. You are absolutely right. I’ll have to Zen it out.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:52 pm

DINJ,

53 Susquehanna

Purchased: 8/24/2004
Purchase Price: $340,000

$306,000 Financed ($272,000 First Lien, $34,000 HEL)

MLS# 2332510
OLP: $448,000
LP: $434,500
DOM: 179
Expired

MLS# 2397084
OLP: $431,250
LP: $431,250
DOM: 104
Expired

MLS# 2431996
OLP: $427,500
LP: $399,900
DOM: 105
Withdrawn

MLS# 2462348
OLP: $379,000
LP: $365,000
DOM: 50
Active
afe says:

January 5, 2008 at 1:52 pm

scribe (72)

Just curious, why are showers in the basement illegal? Just particular towns or is this state-wide?

afe
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 2:03 pm

Congrats go out to the listing agents, it takes a real expert to relist a home 4 times in an attempt to obscure the real history.

I’m sure they were just freshening the listing up.

https://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/09/21/relisting-revisited/

Relisting is widespread in some states. The New Jersey Star-Ledger newspaper reported in an August article that it gained access to MLS data that showed hundreds of examples of relisting practices in three New Jersey counties.

James Bednar, who publishes the Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble blog, said he and members of his audience believe that relisting for purposes of restarting a listing’s time on market is deceptive.

“I feel the practice walks the very thin line between marketing and fraudulent misrepresentation, especially if this information is not revealed to the buyer by their agent,” he said, and the misuse of relisting “obscures the time on market as well as any price reduction information” for New Jersey consumers.

“The fact that this issue is even being debated as potentially unethical and misrepresentation should be more than enough for the NAR to take a stance against it,” he said.
dreamtheaterr says:

January 5, 2008 at 2:06 pm

#5, Stu

Interesting perspective you share on India -thanks!

As prosperity grows, the disparity between the have and have-nots becomes even more apparent and in your face in developing countries, especially when you visit the rural areas.

Stay safe, especially with the food you eat :)
bergenbuyer says:

January 5, 2008 at 2:54 pm

Ann- I’m in a similar situation with repair issues, but my sellers don’t have another offer. I feel like walking and saying put it back on the market and continue to carry two houses.
Ann says:

January 5, 2008 at 3:00 pm

77 re relisting

I was just thinking about relisting today and how wrong it is. Although, on the other hand, DOM sort of doesn’t matter anymore. What does DOM tell us these days? Perhaps, that the sellers are desperate, but perhaps that they are just unreasonable, or stubborn, or not really “sellers.”

79 bergenbuyer

Your sellers don’t want to do repairs and they don’t have another buyer and they are carrying two houses? Wow. That’s bold. Or stupid.
bergenbuyer says:

January 5, 2008 at 3:09 pm

they’re willing to do some repairs, but are being stubborn.
chicagofinance says:

January 5, 2008 at 3:15 pm

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080105/ap_on_re_us/word_of_the_year
chicagofinance says:

January 5, 2008 at 3:25 pm

dreamtheaterr_whartonfinance Says:
January 4th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
For #239, Chifi, for heavens sake, I am not trying to pick a bone with you.
For #244, Those are the dates Morningstar started their portfolios. There was no hand picking of starting dates on the part of the author to data mine to prove any point.
For #260, Intellectual dishonesty? So that’s what all this boils down to, eh?
Peace to you…I’m signing out.

Mr. Know It All: You picked a bone with me, and you knew damn well when you did it.

Your article is flawed and I don’t care that it used readily available sources from a third party. You still referred to it as a method to support your argument.

My accusation is just, and you casual dismissal of it is insulting and tactless. You insult (and I would say don’t even understand) what I do every day as a vocation. I am not some dimestore jackass, yet you have the unmitigated gall to make a mess of no less that three different issues and blend them into one refutation of everything I am saying.

If it is not clear that you are blending a bunch of issues, then you are either a simpleton or just a tactless prick. I am going to bet on the latter.
BC Bob says:

January 5, 2008 at 3:25 pm

chi [82],

Soon to buried by the 2008 word of the year; Distressed.
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

January 5, 2008 at 3:37 pm

grim #75

So this house has spent roughly 440 days on the market under various listings, all the while tumbling in price from $448K to $365K…..and still no takers.

Now THAT’S marketing at it’s most deceptive!
njpatient says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:06 pm

#19 mike
I think you may have put the decimal in the wrong place.
Rich In NNJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:08 pm

So, back to that get together.

I’m thinking a Wednesday or Thursday night, hotel bar at or near the intersection of two highways?

Thoughts?

Rich
dreamtheaterr_whartonfinance says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:13 pm

intellectual dishonesty, tactless prick, fail to show intellectual curiosity, hypocrit

All this said within 24 hours….bravo Chifi.

Perhaps we should have debated the works of Depeche Mode or Dream Theater…perhaps you/your vocation would have felt less threatened.

I’m done with ever replying to you again.
DINJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:18 pm

Thanks Grim!!!!!
DINJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:28 pm

Curious, in regards to #75,
does the constant relisting tell you something other than the price was too high?
MCN says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:45 pm

SG – Good luck.
Mojo Jojo says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:48 pm

Hi…could someone pls pull a few addresses for me?

2432632
2427157
2391207

TIA
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 4:51 pm

2432632 – 43 Glen Alpin, Harding
2427157 – 391 Mt. Harmony, Bernardsville
2391207 – 32 Post Kunhardt, Bernardsville
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 5:03 pm

West Milford Comp Killer

1790 Clinton, West Milford NJ

Purchased: 7/29/2004
Purchase Price: $381,000

MLS# 2438799

Sold: 1/4/2008
Sale Price: $295,000

23% under 2004 price..
afe says:

January 5, 2008 at 5:04 pm

comp and bank account killer in brigadoon

MLS ID# 2443771
LP 2.795 m
bought 6/24/2005 for 2.9 m
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 5:10 pm

Glen Rock Comp Killer

89 Hillman Ave, Glen Rock NJ

Purchased: 2/17/2006
Purchase Price: $530,000

MLS# 2733312 – REO

Sold: 1/4/2008
Sale Price: $350,000

34% under 2006 price..
Frank says:

January 5, 2008 at 5:22 pm

Prices are dropping like a rock, check out this new house for 280K, wow!!!

http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07747&typ=7&sid=2dee8c3f1597408fb4f0135596a49d83&pg=7&lid=1091933638&lsn=70&srcnt=269#Detail
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 5:34 pm

afe,

I’ll add some detail if you don’t mind..

318 Hillside Ave, Westfield NJ

Purchased: 06/24/05
Purchase Price: $2,900,000

MLS# 2385693
OLP: $3,500,000
LP: $2,950,000
DOM: 182
Withdrawn

MLS# 2443771
OLP: $2,950,000
Current Asking: $2,795,000
DOM: 114
dreamtheaterr_whartonfinance says:

January 5, 2008 at 5:39 pm

#97, Frank wow indeed. Anyone have the address? It’s MLS ID# 20746253
mr potter says:

January 5, 2008 at 5:49 pm

Looks like an uptick in the percentages in the “Comp Killers”
gryffindor says:

January 5, 2008 at 6:19 pm

Willow,

I decided to get my eyebrows done last year for the first time, and I am closer to 30 than 13!

Frank,

I didn’t know that newer homes below $300K still existed in NJ. Maybe it’s the lack of a second bathroom affecting the price?

It’s reassuring to read on here that there are others who find all this materialism in kids and adults these days so mind numbing.
Sybarite says:

January 5, 2008 at 6:40 pm

Anyone familiar with the UBID process?

Specifically looking at 2458055, which had a $100k drop in LP. Is this ebay for homes?

Looks like decent cash flow, if the LP is realistic.
chicagofinance says:

January 5, 2008 at 6:45 pm

dreamtheaterr_whartonfinance Says:
January 5th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
…perhaps you/your vocation would have felt less threatened. I’m done with ever replying to you again.

interesting you use the word “threatened”….it illustrates your arrogance…
chicagofinance says:

January 5, 2008 at 6:52 pm

clot: how do you tolerate the LOD? You are one caustic MF’er, but you have the patience of a saint….
Pat PSU Proud: No loans says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:06 pm

CF, I’m the one with no interpersonal skills, dude. Get off of my cloud.
Pat PSU Proud: No loans says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:08 pm

Since you’re beaming sensitivity right now, I must be sure to emote.

;)
Pat PSU Proud: No loans says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:10 pm

And I will be the first to say that you made a real good call there, ON JOEPA, you big schmuck.

Never diss a really old Italian in a 35-year old polyester sweater.
Eagle says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:14 pm

Hello again to everyone- we are back on the house-hunting trail, in both NJ and Westchester. Everybody HAS to watch the new show on TLC on cable – “Please Buy My House” – which focuses on families that bought their new house before selling their old one, and are now stuck carrying two mortgage. Two of them are in Long Island – Smithtown and Baldwin Place.

Of course, this is followed by seven straight hours of episodes of “flip this house”, etc. Hopefully, the folly of current sellers becomes the primary topic of mainstream housing shows, rather than the illusion of “flipping”
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:18 pm

Nice Comp Killer in West Orange.

16 Schindler Terrace, West Orange NJ

Purchased: 8/12/2004
Purchase Price: $505,000

MLS# 2450601
REO – Countrywide
Asking Price: $484,900

Tough to be these guys:

MLS# 2429460 – 21 Schindler
Asking: $509,000

MLS# 2455755 – 17 Schindler
Asking: $518,900

MLS# 2434576 – 12 Schindler
Asking: $519,000
kettle1 says:

January 5, 2008 at 7:22 pm

Question for the crowd….

What is the price difference in building new as opposed to buying a “teardown” ( assuming relatively similar profiles), And are there tax/other savings to be had by buying a tear down and keeping as little of it intact as needed to satisfy “renovation” regulations.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:12 pm

PGC,

Drove past the property today.

Great price and a beautiful place, I hope you get it.
Pat PSU Proud: No loans says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:15 pm

I want to know. Because I (unlike all those perfect people out there) make comparisions between myself, and others.

How come, three years ago, this forklift operator knew what to do? Am I missing some question the reporter forgot?

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2004107938_ownership06.html?syndication=rss
Confused In NJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:36 pm

MLS# 2429460 – 21 Schindler
Asking: $509,000

Tax $13,525 & Maintenance $368/mo, $4,416ann, for total of $17,941 cost to live in an interior unit townhouse in West Orange. Tough hardly describes it.
bubblewatcher says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:53 pm

With the comps finally dropping, I will again predict we will start to see the downtun hit NYC (not the high end, but the low to middle). Wait until the spring jump in listings hits…
bi says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:56 pm

Musharraf: Bhutto is responsible for own death

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22517257/
bi says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:58 pm

Romney is likely to be nominated if wyoming is a good predictor.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WY
t c m says:

January 5, 2008 at 8:58 pm

bc –

there is a house for sale in short hills that has what seems to be a cement silo – or some kind of tower thing on the lawn.
ricky_nu says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:01 pm

funny thing, 33 maple road upper saddle river, nj

3.2mm olp, 2.15mm sell price, in upper snobby river nj, 32% discount from olp

seems to me that people seem to know that the fair price is 1997 prices plus inflation (same house would have been 1.6mm in 1997) , thus a fair trading price. I wish some of these other mooks asking 3.25mm for the same thing would get the message,.
kettle1 says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:01 pm

Bi,

If Ron Paul can continue to capitalize on the outcry arising in NH from the fox news debacle since the NH GOP has officially pulled support from the fox debate he may have a real shot at office
bi says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:02 pm

my prediction is it will be obama v.s. romney this year. but romney will win the election.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:04 pm

Anyone watching debate?
NJ patient YES I did its 1%.Just typing away.Still high # for 1 little town in the sticks.It would be nice to break down county & towns.Grim you have overalls to send me by email.I can break down & post for all.Back to debate.Catch you later.
grim says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:17 pm

From the Star Ledger:

Corzine to call for freeze on state spending

Gov. Jon Corzine will call for a freeze on state spending at current levels when he outlines his priorities for the new year in his annual State of the State address to the Legislature on Tuesday.

Corzine said today the freeze would lay the foundation for his plan to restructure state finances
— a plan that will also include raising highway tolls to pay down state debt.

“I could not feel more strongly about restructuring the state’s finances. It is my highest priority,” Corzine said in an interview with The Star-Ledger. “Since I believe that, a freeze on spending seems like a logical first step.”
afe says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:21 pm

Grim,

Thanks for the details. Looks like a prime example of “chasing the market down”. If it sells at asking and then one deducts a 6% transaction fee, they are looking at a 272k loss! Ouch!!

I mean I would feel bad for the guy but he had his OLP at 600k higher than his buying price, that’s a 20% premium…in this market…what was he thinking?

afe
PGC says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:30 pm

#111 grim
Thanks. It comes from a time when builders built great houses with great curb appeal.
Clotpoll says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:36 pm

Ann (38)-

If you walk on this deal, you are nuts.

And a world-class crazymaker.
WickedOrange says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:37 pm

What Created The Subprime Mess
If you have any background in finance or economics I think you will find this video very funny. Although its a spoof on what caused the subprime crisis nothing they say is incorrect.

http://break.com/index/how-we-got-into-the-subprime-mess.html
afe says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:44 pm

#97, Frank wow indeed. Anyone have the address? It’s MLS ID# 20746253

39 orchard
afe says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:45 pm

#97, Frank wow indeed. Anyone have the address? It’s MLS ID# 20746253

39 orchard, matawan (off google search)
Clotpoll says:

January 5, 2008 at 9:50 pm

Ann (74)-

“We can afford the house comfortably, but it’s so painful to think that you could be buying and it’s going to drop in value the second you buy it.”

OK, off come my gloves. Your agents must be idiots, because instead of looking out for themselves and feeding you lines that bad agents have used for the past 30 years, they need to slap you upside the head and talk some sense into you.

Your house IS going to drop in value…the nanosecond you close. You will also have prepaids and closing costs tacked onto that, to boot.

However, you just stated that this is a “forever” house. You’re not going to turn around and try to flip it in two weeks. Believe it or not, somewhere down the road (probably in well less than ten years), the collective American memory will core-dump and we’ll be off to the races again with spiraling prices, fog-a-mirror loans and all the hoopla that comes from the combustible mixture of hope and abject stupidity.

If your biggest sticking points are $1,500 and some vague feeling that you are not catching a total market bottom, you are both a market-timer, LOD and a sheeple.
bubblewatcher says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:04 pm

Ann,

Dont know you but I’ll chime in.

My analogy for real estate to live in (not purely as investment)is a roller coaster – goes up and goes down (usually up in the long term). You need to jump on at some point and ride it along with the rest of the market.

Like anything else, you can never time the bottom – and it sounds as if you have negotiated in some further drop. If this is the right time for you to buy, look at what you saved from a few years back, ride it down some more (assuming it continues down – who knows), and enjoy that you found the right house at a very good discount.

If this is for the long term – you need to allow at least some emotions into the decision or you’ll never buy.
Hobokenite says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:18 pm

This is too good to not post:

http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/rfs/529540816.html

“Given that residential real estate continues to appreciate in and around New York City, we would take deposit now to hold unit and lock-in purchase price. If you went directly through Maxwell Place (www.maxwellplace.com), you could not get a better deal. If interested, please respond to Rob at foreverrap@yahoo.com”
dreamtheaterr says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:23 pm

#128, thanks afe.
Essex says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:25 pm

I thought that in NJ there was a period of a couple of days….after an offer was put forward….where the homeowner could actually ACCEPT other offers….perfect in the situation the seller and ‘Anne’ is in today I would think.
Richie says:

January 5, 2008 at 10:46 pm

• 2,500 sqft Gym with Swimming Pool as well as Cable and High Speed Internet Connection included in Monthly Maintenance Fee ($740-$810)

Ouch. That’s a hefty monthly maintenance.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:01 pm

Essex 3 day attorney review period.
Salty Steve says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:33 pm

So here’s the thought, and perhaps this isn’t the best time to throw it out there, but I might as welll see if there’s anyone listening.

We bought in the fall of 2004 with a 5.75 fixed 30 yr loan. With slight overpayments, we’re moving the principal down about $500 a month. (original loan 281,000)

The question is are we keeping up with the drop in home prices.

I kind-of think we are… Also keep in mind we are going to be here for atleast another 5 years.
startingover inNJ says:

January 5, 2008 at 11:45 pm

I’m just back from vacation in Hawaii, where the foreclosure notices in the papers go on and on, including, to my great amusement, foreclosures of timeshares (if anyone is crazy enough to be in the market for one of those).
Richard says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:32 am

>>comp and bank account killer in brigadoon

um, most likely not the case. do you really think the person that owns that house is going to have their bank account broken by losing $100k + commission. that’s butt wipe money over there.
Richard says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:38 am

West Orange is one of the biggest ripoff towns in the NNJ area. Look at the townhouse complexes. Ridiculous taxes, maintenance fees and prices and for what? The luxury of living in a town with no train to NYC, deteriorating schools, the need to drive everywhere, the ghetto to your east and rapidly forming to the south. Take a pass.
Richard says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:39 am

>>With the comps finally dropping, I will again predict we will start to see the downtun hit NYC (not the high end, but the low to middle). Wait until the spring jump in listings hits…

don’t bet on it. prices are still ridiculous. a friend and his wife are looking for 2 bedrooms apartments in decent areas and the prices have hardly moved. NYC remains a very hot place to live and yes it might be different this time there.
Essex says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:53 am

Richard, You sir are a complete moron. There I said it.
poor renter says:

January 6, 2008 at 1:03 am

Anyone see the new condos going up across the street from the Park Ridge Train Station? Listed at 425K to 575K with $400 or so a month common charges…. well no need to rush out and buy one – they are now apartments. Cost to “own” was $3200 + a month to own… cost to rent $2K.

I really would hate to be the developer building the other condoshack going up across the street from this debacle.
Cindy says:

January 6, 2008 at 6:15 am

to WickedOrange#126..

Now that was funny…
“So they want the government to bail them out by rewarding greed and stupidity?”

Love the term – dodgy debt..
Cindy
grim says:

January 6, 2008 at 7:18 am

From the Courier News:

Foreclosure numbers rise across N.J.

Business is brisk these days at the Somerset County Sheriff’s Office.

Though increased business is almost always considered good news, the rise in activity at the sheriff’s office is a result of bad news — a rise in the number of property foreclosures.

On Tuesday, 20 properties will be auctioned in sheriff’s sales of properties in foreclosure proceedings, and more are planned for later this month.

Though he could not give exact numbers, Somerset Court Sheriff Frank Provenzano said the number of foreclosures increased by close to 500 in Somerset County from 2006 to 2007. In fact, business is so brisk that Provenzano plans on requesting extra money from the county freeholders to possibly hire more people to handle the increased number of foreclosures.
Pat PSU Proud: No loans says:

January 6, 2008 at 7:29 am

http://tinyurl.com/3asdsh

“If financial institutions continue cutting payrolls, much vacant space could come back on the market and drag down rents, even in Manhattan…

But there are still enough foreign investors interested in the Manhattan market, he said, “that Mr. Macklowe may not have to sell his core properties.”
Pat says:

January 6, 2008 at 7:32 am

A year ago, the ideas in this article met with jeers. Manhattan drop?

In a single year, perspective is completely turned. Adjustment is rapid.

Next Christmas, will the word of the year be foreclosure?
Bubbles says:

January 6, 2008 at 7:46 am

Grim , when will you fellows post “Lowball” stats again??

Thank you!!
grim says:

January 6, 2008 at 8:05 am

I’ll try to get one up this evening.
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 8:36 am

reech (138)-

“…that’s butt wipe money over there.”

Er, Reech…since 100K is “butt wipe”, could you please give me one unit of butt wipe?
grim says:

January 6, 2008 at 8:56 am

From the CN piece above..

For example, on Nov. 27 U.S. Bank Association, the parent company of U.S. Bank, the sixth largest commercial bank in the United States, bought a 0.56-acre property on Wingate Way in Green Brook at a sheriff’s sale for the minimum bid of $100.

U.S. Bank Association had a $982,225.81 mortgage on the property, which was bought in 1998 for $396,889 and was assessed in 2006 at $716,200 according to Gannett NJ figures.

To get clear title to the property, U.S. Bank Association must satisfy any liens on the property, plus back property taxes of $7,753.

On Nov. 7, Commerce Bank bought a one-acre property on Old York Road in Branchburg for $100. The single-family home was bought in 1995 for $235,000 and had a 2006 assessment of $513,700.

The defaulted loan from Commerce Bank was for $1,564,165.56.
grim says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:05 am

I decided to join the local Realtor(r) board and become a member of the NAR.

Good idea? Bad idea?

My justification:

It is damn near impossible to be in real estate without being a member of the NAR.

While I’ve tried to beat them, I can’t. Most every aspect of residential real estate requires membership.

Discuss.
grim says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:08 am

I look forward to the mandatory ethics training. Expect live-blogging from that event.
rhymingrealtor says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:10 am

Welcome to the Jan 1st bend over club.

KL
mark says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:12 am

grim,could you tell me what happened to these two

mls 2445420 and 2439294
Orion says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:18 am

Ann (74),

In my opinion, $1,500. shouldn’t be a deal breaker. If you stay in the house for 2 years, that comes out to $2.14 per day. That’s half a cup of Starbucks latte.

It seems you’re stuck on the principle of the thing. Let that go. You might be able to pick up that $1500. after inspection. If you like the house that much, go for it.
grim says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:18 am

2445420 – Went under contract on 12/10
2439294 – Went under contract on 11/8, should be closing on 1/11.

I’ve got a thing for Skyview, one of my favorite developments.

My wife and I looked at a number of units there. Did you get a chance to see the doublewide end-unit, number 72? Sold for $885k in June.
njrebear says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:20 am

At this point it is beyond NAR and therfore i don’t care. Please keep us updated on communication sent from the hive ship :)
mark says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:23 am

72 is still overpriced even with the discount
mark says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:23 am

whats the prices on those other two
spam spam bacon spam says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:29 am

As far as “joining”…

I see NJEA like that… actually, a lot of unions require mandatory membership if you wanna work “there”…

They don’t really give you a choice of joining or not.

I ask: What is the harm in joining the NAR? I mean, are there things that, by being a member, you are no longer able to do because of your membership? (out of pocket costs aside…)

You can pay your dues and still rip them a new one, no?
Orion says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:29 am

Grim (151),
Good idea. As long as it doesn’t skew your perspective. Your independent thinking is valuable to this blog.
Bubbles says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:32 am

Thank you Grim ..:)
scribe says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:38 am

afe,

re the basement shower:

This house was built in 1956, when the area was still largely woods and the first water and sewer lines had just been built. It had something to do with the way in which the water would drain.

The shower was never used. There was a shower head that was part of the overhead pipes and a drain in the floor, but the shower stall had never been built.

So it wasn’t clear if a newer drainage system would have been OK.
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:41 am

163 scribe, I think you’re right. There were old showers that just drained straight into the ground, not into the septic or public sewer. Those are illegal now. You can definitely have a basement shower, but it has to drain to wherever your waste goes.

I saw some showers on my househunt where the tiles were still there, but they were nonfunctional now.
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:57 am

129 Clotpoll

I was waiting for you to tell me off! Yes, the house might very well drop in value, both from the closing costs and just the value itself. Thankfully, we got all the closing costs on our sell and our buy paid by my husband’s employer (this is a relo). So that’s at least out of the picture. Thanks for reminding me how stupid America is and how we’ll be up again soon enough : )

130 bubblewatcher

I agree on the emotions.

133 Essex

We are way past attorney review, these sellers want us to drop out over the inspection contingency because they got another, much better offer recently, after attny review.

Orion 155

The 1,500 is inspection repairs they don’t want to do, in hopes that we’ll walk and they can take the other, much higher offer. You’re right though, good analogy on the Starbucks.

grim

You should definitely join the NAR just so you can liveblog the ethics training. I’m sure lots of people would love to read that!
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 9:59 am

166

Oh I forgot to write the best part.

Word on the street now is that the sellers are thinking about breaking our contract anyway because they don’t think we’ll sue and the other offer is so much better. We’ll see how that plays out tomorrow.
PGC's wife says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:13 am

#17 afe – thanks, babysitter + reservation and we’re there!

grim – I’ve been following the Stickley, my husband is thankful it’s out of our range even if I were to sell my soul back to engineering.

And thanks for the drive by – if it works out I’ll be pleased, but have to admit that the 34% under 2006 comp killers are eye opening. Making nice with the neighbors will be tough even though we’re only at 25%.

Ann – I agree with lisoosh #70, but have to add that $1,500 is nothing – can’t even be 1/2 a percent! So why are you thinking about it? Bend over and take it, move in, get kids in school and enjoy.

Cupcakes – My son’s pre-school welcomes cupcakes, but you have to bring in the box or recipe, because there are a few kids with allergies. I few of my friend’s kids have severe allergies, and it’s so sad to see a 3 year old that can’t eat cake with his friends. I always try to bring a special treat for him that’s just as unhealthy and fun, but without any allergens.

I don’t see why schools say ‘no cupcakes’ but still allow soda – WTF!! And the one that really gets me are schools that only allow store bought products. You trust Little Debbie, but you don’t trust me?

Fund Raisers – I’d rather just pay the money and opt out. With all the work that goes into some of these things they’re barely getting a min wage return on the volunteer’s time.
scribe says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:17 am

Ann,

I think all of what you’re going through is normal when you’re considering a very major purchase like a house. You have the jitters, like a nervous bride.

But, geez, don’t be a runaway bride over $1500 – not if you love the house and you can afford it.

It sounds to me like you’re worried the market value of the house will drop the minute you buy it, and you’re second-guessing yourself no end. But “market value” doesn’t matter, if you expect to be there for a very long time. For all you know, in ten years, we’ll have hyper-inflation, and with hindsight, it will look like a tremendous bargain.

If you live long enough, you know that you can’t possibly predict the future, especially when it comes to the economy. Too many freaky things happen over time.

I don’t think they can dump you all that easily, if you have a contract in place. I would guess that your attorney can do some serious saber-rattling about enjoining any other sale, with a threat to tie them up in court.

Think about all the positives you’ve cited about this house – and go for it.

Initially, I was skeptical about the risk of the stairs, but it sounds like it’s basically OK – just needs some reinforcement.

“Pre-owned” houses are rarely perfect. But it sounds like all of the major factors – price, good lot, house you love – are there.

Maybe we should all show up and walk you down the aisle? :)
PGC's wife says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:24 am

scribe:
“Pre-owned” houses are rarely perfect.

Had to giggle on this one. A friend bought a McMansoin a few years back and thought it would be problem free because it was new. It took her 3 months of back and forth with the developer to get heat in their breakfast nook – seemed that duct was overlooked. There were a few other minor things as well, and all sent her reeling because it was a ‘new’ house.
afe says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:38 am

um, most likely not the case. do you really think the person that owns that house is going to have their bank account broken by losing $100k + commission. that’s butt wipe money over there.

I thought that posting would bring Sir Reechard out of hiding. Um, I really don’t think this guy got to the point of buying a 3 million dollar house by giving away 100k notes every time he got his investments wrong. You have to admit, its got to hurt. He thought he was going to make 390k (-6% commission) when he listed at 3.5 million and now with a 6% commission he will be losing 300k.

That’s a 690k loss in his mind and that unfortunately is where this whole bubble started..in people’s minds. afe

afe
afe says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:43 am

scribe – thanks for the info.
Drew says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:46 am

Was planning on buying in spring of 2008.
I have decieded to wait this out longer, and have been looking for a place to put my down payment money for the time being. Countrywide Bank is offering 6 month cd’s at 5.50%. Does anyone know of any better rates out there or have any better sugestings as to where to put my money for the time being?
mikeinwaiting says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:59 am

Drew I would stay away from Country Wide try Hudson City very solid bank.I don’t know rate at this point.I wouldn’ worry about alittle lower rate safty has a value all its own.
mikeinwaiting says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:02 am

Drew I’m putting my money where my mouth is. My DP money is in cd there.5.35% 6 month,but that was then.
scribe says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:07 am

Drew,

Try bankrate.com for rate comparisons.

Also, almost all of the banks post their current CD rates online on their own Web sites.

Countrywide is precarious right now.

The much higher rate is because they’re on the ropes.
chicagofinance says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:08 am

Drew: regarding the CDs….winter 2008 is no time to be a hero….yeah FDIC insurance and all, but go with a name you haven’t heard being kicked around the gutter recently…at least for the next 6-9 months…
scribe says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:08 am

afe,

You’re welcome :)
Essex says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:08 am

Anne…this is pretty interesting…Perhaps the seller does know as you have shown your hand in essence by getting caught up in a $1500 repair..that you will not spend the resource to take them to court if they walk on your offer.
Hobokenite says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:12 am

Stumbled upon this on HBB.

http://www.observer.com/2008/williamsburg-2007

Apparently a Williamsburg brokerage is taking issue with the Corcoran Groups claim of rising prices.
chicagofinance says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:17 am

Ann Says:
January 5th, 2008 at 10:28 am
This house is a good example. We got it for about a 2004 price, but had the timing been off, we would have lost it to these other folks. We did get a good deal on this house, today, as evidenced by the fact someone else is willing to pay more for it!

Ann: Without offering a long-winded discussion of the market dynamics, you see that the market value of the house since your accepted offer has increased. Based on a January 2008 comp (i.e. the other offer) you have some appreciation “in the bag” to start your journey with this house. I think fate is giving you a nudge. If the shoe fits…….
Hobokenite says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:18 am

Also from the comments section on HBB:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3971#comments

“Comment by housegeek
2008-01-05 12:47:10

OK, so I just took my own advice and compared the brown harris stevens 4th Q data — with Zillow (which is not perfect, but does take into acct actual tax records)

according to brown harris, median prices for manhattan apts rose this way -also put in Brown harris’s numbers at time prior quarter reports were issued – because they differ from totals listed in the latest report):
(but earlier BH report said)
2006 4thQ – 725,000 760,000
2007 Q1 755,000 770,000
2007 Q2 795,000 840,000
2007 Q3 815,000 815,000
2007 Q4 828,000

But data taken from Zillow indicates median prices are actually higher but dropping (tho it doesn’t break down by quarters -and may be higher because it’ll include a few whole townhouses amid the city’s vast majority of apt sales, which brown harris only measures in its overall tally):

Median sales price – Past 12 monts: 876,000
Median sales price – Past 6 months: 875,000
Media sales price- past 3 months — 837,000
Median sales price, past 2 minths — 785,000

So, it looks like Brown Harris is revising median apt. sales figures in earlier reports, and gosh, it looks like median prices are going up. But Zillow’s measure of median sales shows prices dropping..makes me go hmmm….”

Personally I’m waiting to see the MillerSamuel.com 4th quarter report as they do an excellent job of breaking the market down into various segments.
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:18 am

grim (152)-

“I look forward to the mandatory ethics training. Expect live-blogging from that event.”

The “event” doesn’t last too long. You’ll have ample pauses in the action for your blogging, too.

Welcome to the dark side. Be sure to always opt out of the NAR PAC donation, which is optional. They always print an amount on your invoice, so you have to cross it out and change the total amount.
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:20 am

spam (160)-

Actually, there are some things you can’t do once you’re a NAR member.

Most of the prohibited behaviors are related to the Code of Ethics, which prohibit things that they deem unethical…but which are not illegal.
3b says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:21 am

#180 chgofinance: Ann: Without offering a long-winded discussion of the market dynamics, you see that the market value of the house since your accepted offer has increased. Based on a January 2008 comp (i.e. the other offer) you have some appreciation “in the bag” to start your journey with this house. I think fate is giving you a nudge. If the shoe fits…….

?????
HEHEHE says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:22 am

Hobokenite,

I find those comments to that article to be hilarious. I think the NAR must have a full staff of internet trolls ready to bad mouth any brokerage that shows a hint of honesty re current market conditions.
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:24 am

Ann (166)-

You should pre-empt any thought the seller has of breaching your contract. Let them know first thing that you will take legal action.

Consult your attorney.
3b says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:25 am

#166 Ann: how much better is the other offer? Do these people have financing lined up etc.?
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:28 am

3b (187)-

There’s about 0 chance of that info being divulged to Ann.
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:30 am

The question with Ann is: can she act when the right situation presents itself…or is she a LOD?

I’m signing out of this discussion now. The fact that she’d also lose relo benefits if she walks on this deal makes taking it such a no-brainer that I can’t believe how much bandwidth has been devoted to its discussion.
3b says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:30 am

#140 Richard:it might be different this time there.

No Richard, it is not different this time there (NYC), or anywhere it might take longer, but it is certainly not different; I gurantee it.
3b says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:32 am

#188 clot: I figured that, just thought that possibly she might have some idea, or is the other buyer perhaps just a phatom buyer?
BC Bob says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:36 am

Frank [97],

Do you know the 2005 comps?

Thanks.

Wicked,

Loved George Parr. Comedy or nightmare?
Drew says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:36 am

Thanks everyone for the feed back on cd’s. I think I will stay away from Counrtywide.
Hobokenite says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:39 am

HEHEHE,

I was thinking the same thing. I like how the first idiot managed to submit his comment twice.
Mojo Jojo says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:44 am

Drew,

I have my DP money parked at Zion’s Bank in a FDIC insured savings account that pays 5.16%. I could get a few ticks more elsewhere buy why worry.

If you have more than $100K that you want under FDIC, you can structure it according to FDIC rules. If you have kids, you should be able to cover $600K in deposits.

Grim, once again, thanks for the data. I’ll be looking forward to lowball.
Drew says:

January 6, 2008 at 11:59 am

Its nice to see so many parking DP and waiting this market out. When do guys think the time will be right to buy?
t c m says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:02 pm

re: anne’s situation –

don’t you think that the other people, who put in the higher offer, have a right to know that if their bid is accepted and the contract is broken, that their is a possibility of some kind of legal action?

even if not against them, isn’t there a possibility that it will tie the whole thing up?

why would they want to get involved in something like that? especially in this market?

shouldn’t their realtor advise them of this possibility?
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:47 pm

167 PGC’s wife

Yeah, we’re resigned to bending over and taking it : )

168 scribe

The realtor is getting her own sabre rattling for sure. The stairs turned out not to be a such a big deal thankfully. It will involve a repair including cutting through drywall though.

178 Essex

We haven’t really pushed back on the sellers regarding the repairs yet, this all just happened on Friday. We do know that they are hoping we back out though (well, via the realtors anyway).

180 chifi

It does make us feel good that the market value has already gone up, assuming these new buyers actually have the cash and financing.

186 Clotpoll, good advice. Will pre-empt tomorrow and talk to attny. What’s an LOD? Don’t want to become that! We don’t lose the relo benefits unless we don’t buy by Sept.

187 3b

The other offer is near full price, our offer is 8% below full price. A nice chunk of change. I don’t know anything else about it, except that the buyers saw the house before us, and wanted to wait for the spring for the big price drop and then when they heard we bought it, all of a sudden, wanted back in. I don’ think it’s a phantom buyer, because if the sellers came down this much on the original offer price, I think they would at least negotiate on these small repairs, not want to totally get us to walk.

197 t c m

The other buyers apparently know that it’s under contract, our contract was actually what spurred them into action, since they wanted to wait around for the spring for the price to drop on this house. I don’t know why they would want to get involved in this either. Or the sellers for that matter. I guess for this amount of money, it’s worth the risk of having a deal that is practically done flushed down the toilet for an unknown offer that hasn’t even been through attny review?
Frank says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:51 pm

NJ is getting close to Detroit prices of $1, homes sell for as low as $49,999.

http://www.realtor.com/realestate/newark-nj-07107-1092143120/
PGC says:

January 6, 2008 at 12:54 pm

189 – what’s LOD?
splokey says:

January 6, 2008 at 1:07 pm

Ann,
A similar situation happened to me about 14 years ago. I got a lawyer from a big law firm to write letters threatening legal action and demanding that the other buyers be informed. The other buyers did back out then, because they didn’t want to be involved in the legal battle or to have to wait till it was over, which potentially could have easily tied up the deal for a year or two regardless of who won.
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 1:17 pm

201 splokey

Good advice. Holy cow, good point. I didn’t realize these things could drag on like that. I’m starting to wonder if these other buyers really know just how far along this deal is…

OT, is anyone else excited for the new Wire season starting tonight? We just finished Season 4 last night on DVD, that was a good one.
BC Bob says:

January 6, 2008 at 1:23 pm

JB,

#203, what sent this into moderation?
Essex says:

January 6, 2008 at 1:37 pm

198…Anne saga…”I think they would at least negotiate on these small repairs, not want to totally get us to walk.”

Why would they negotiate, and why would you…again it is $1500….are things really that tight? Good lord woman. Get to the closing table if you want this place…if not…let it go.
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 1:58 pm

204 Essex

I was making a point that I do believe these new buyers are real, because if these sellers didn’t have the other buyers, they would be negotiating on these repairs.

And yes, there is an irrational part of me that wants to walk from this deal and tell them to go scratch and go have fun with their new, untested, un-attorney reviewed buyers.
Kelly says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:14 pm

Eagle #108 –

I saw the show last night – unbelieveable. I have been talking all morning to my husband about it – I am DVRing all of the episodes.

I really could not get over the Florida house couple – paying $10,000 a month for that??? It looked so unappealing. They were ready to take their kids college money??? That couple rally needs to know about Jingle Mail. If there was ever a perfect example of giving up and and letting the property getting foreclosed that was it. They also did not seem that aggresive about selling – lowering the price that little – just reduce the value by another $100,000 rahter than hold it for another year.

That LI couple seemed the most eager to sell – the huge drop and the son’s redecorating.

Such a realistic change from the flipping shows – which never really show what happens in the end. There is a website – Flipthislawsuit.com that shows that alot of the flipping results on the A&E show are BS.
scribe says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:36 pm

LOD = League or Legion of Dorks (I think).

I think it relates to sitting on the fence forever … but ask Clot.
Essex says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:37 pm

Ann…Gotcha…I don’t want to sound like I’m castigating you here. I’m not. I understand the pressures you might feel and perhaps towing the hard line is what it takes in this day and age. Hopefully the deal will work for you…if I was the seller, I would wonder if taking a bird in hand was worth two in the bush as the old saying goes.
Essex says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:38 pm

Funny!…Legion of Dorks….I feel like we are becoming a country of them…..or is that too cynical?
chicagofinance says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:39 pm

t c m Says:
January 6th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
re: anne’s situation –
don’t you think that the other people, who put in the higher offer, have a right to know that if their bid is accepted and the contract is broken, that their is a possibility of some kind of legal action?
why would they want to get involved in something like that? especially in this market?

tcm: obviously a million possible iterations here, but it does present a good possible indicator of some uniqueness inherent in this property, that would entice a potential buyer to make such a shot in the dark……

As for the other party looking to buy, if you need any evidence that, as much as there have been “enablers” in the real estate and mortgage industries during this decade, it all starts and ends with the public. The industry reflects the public that it serves.

When you play with pigs, you get dirty. When pigs play with pigs, you end up with a lot of mud and $hit. I think we need poster “gary” with one of his expletive laced diatribes.
scribe says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:40 pm

Ann, you said:

And yes, there is an irrational part of me that wants to walk from this deal and tell them to go scratch and go have fun with their new, untested, un-attorney reviewed buyers.

Perfectly normal reaction, especially in a highly emotional scenario like buying a house.

That’s why the parties to the deal need good, impartial third parties to negotiate and mediate. Sounds like your broker is a clunker. If you had a good broker, you’d be talking it out with him/her, and they would understand the jitters, given the current market environment.

But it’s not the broker, not the seller – it’s the house that matters.
Essex says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:42 pm

ChiFi….Nails it….again.
chicagofinance says:

January 6, 2008 at 2:45 pm

LOD = league of dorks…..a.k.a. penny wise and pound foolish, but enhanced with moral righteousness…..
BC Bob says:

January 6, 2008 at 3:08 pm

LOD?

I was stuck in moderation. See post # 203.
BC Bob says:

January 6, 2008 at 3:55 pm

Gary,

Will Tiki now shut up?
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 4:08 pm

209 Essex, no worries!

211 chifi, the property is sort of unique, the lot is really nice compared to others in the neighborhood.

212 scribe

I agree, broker is a bit of a clunker, although I am glad she is relaying this info to us.

Thanks for the LOD definition. I guess as long as you’re happy sitting on the fence, you should sit away.
3b says:

January 6, 2008 at 4:08 pm

#198 Ann It does make us feel good that the market value has already gone up, assuming these new buyers actually have the cash and financing.

I woult not necessarily think that the market value has gone up, just becasue they appear to be willing to over pay.

Thi market has to finish dropping, before we can talk about it going up.
Ann says:

January 6, 2008 at 4:16 pm

218 3b

Well, not sure what the strict economic definition of market value is, but assuming it means “price someone is willing to pay for house today.”

Then the value of this house is at least what we are willing to pay, and could possibly be what these other people are willing to pay, as long as they have the cash/financing.

What the market value will be tomorrow, who knows.
t c m says:

January 6, 2008 at 5:05 pm

re: anne’s sit.

“but it does present a good possible indicator of some uniqueness inherent in this property, that would entice a potential buyer to make such a shot in the dark……”

well, that must be some super duper house – if these “other buyers” are willing to get tied up in a messy legal process for who knows how long.
Pat says:

January 6, 2008 at 6:00 pm

I thought Clot’s problem with members of the League of Dorks was that we analyze minutia to death, enjoying the analysis more than the final action, more than John’s sales high, and – of utmost frustration for realtors – more than the American Dream.
gary says:

January 6, 2008 at 7:12 pm

BC Bob [216],

I don’t know if Tiki will shut up but I bet his brother sure as h*ll will.
mr potter says:

January 6, 2008 at 7:56 pm

Tiki who :)
Frank says:

January 6, 2008 at 8:10 pm

Citigroup May Begin Layoffs This Week

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119956984858970283.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:44 pm

PGC (200)-

League of Dorks. Potential buyers who will only buy a house if:

-they can humiliate the seller
-get the home at a sub-pre-foreclosure price
-a lunar and solar eclipse occur simultaneously
-the interest rate on their mortgage is under 1%
-the house they buy is as clean and defect-free as a surgical theatre
-no Realtors are involved in the sale
-the seller covers all the buyer’s closing costs and prepaids
-the digits of the street address add up to a number that is numerologically acceptable
-the front door points 187 degrees N/NE
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:48 pm

Pat (221)-

I don’t sell the American Dream. Never did. Most folks’ American Dreams are just the first act in an American Nightmare (guess I got too much Fitzgerald & Tennesee Williams at too-young an age).

A house is a roof with a box under it. What it is, is what the owner makes of it. Dicking around over minutiae prevents all concerned from getting on with life.

And, that is both pathetic and annoying.
Clotpoll says:

January 6, 2008 at 10:55 pm

Still my opinion that 60% of the regular posters here will never buy a house.

When this thing gets really ugly, how many here are gonna have the guts to pull the trigger when housing is in a virtual free fall?

Let the handwringing over job security, the direction of mortgage rates, unemployment numbers, the sell-off of NJ public assets, etc begin.

Everybody laughs at Buffett and marvels at how “easy” it is for him to swoop into a distress situation and play it to his advantage.

The only thing is, pulling such moves takes big onions and nerves of steel.
Ann says:

January 7, 2008 at 8:35 am

225 Clotpoll

So essentially, you are saying the LOD are people who will never buy a house, obviously. Not sure about all of your criteria, but I would but a whole lot of buyer uppers in the LOD. Except they have to get their close-to-peak price, with a long closing date so they can find something else, possibly a contingency, then they have to go find someone to shake down.

I wouldn’t consider myself in the “LOD,” but I am starting to think that if for some reason this house falls through for us and we do have to rent for a while (hopefully not), it’s best to just take a break from watching the market entirely.

I think you can just drive yourself silly watching houses week to week, waiting for prices to go down. A watched pot never boils. It’s probably healthier just to totally check out, settle in your rental for a year, come back at the end of the lease and see what has transpired.

Of course, easier said than done!

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Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

228 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

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