From CEOs for Cities:
Driven to the Brink (PDF)
How the Gas Price Spike Popped the Housing Bubble and Devalued the Suburbs
The collapse of America’s housing bubble—and its reverberations in financial markets—has obscured a tectonic shift in housing demand. Although housing prices are in decline almost everywhere, price declines are generally far more severe in far-flung suburbs and in metropolitan areas with weak close-in neighborhoods. The reason for this shift is rooted in the dramatic increase in gas prices over the past five years. Housing in cities and neighborhoods that require lengthy commutes and provide few transportation alternatives to the private vehicle are falling in value more precipitously than in more central, compact and accessible places.
From the Wall Street Journal:
As Gas Prices Spike, Suburban Home Prices Fall
Rising gasoline prices have affected much of American life –- from the cars we drive to the vacations we take. A new study, however, indicates that increasing gas prices may have the strongest impact closer to home — the houses we choose to live in.
In a report entitled “Driven to the Brink: How the Gas Price Spike Popped the Housing Bubble and Devalued the Suburbs,” released this month by CEOs for Cities, economist Joe Cortright contends that while predatory lending and subprime mortgages had a hand in today’s housing crisis, higher gas prices played a major role –- and will have a much longer-lasting impact on U.S. consumers’ home-buying preferences.
“The rise in gas prices from less than $1.10 in early 2002 to more than $3 today has dealt a major blow to consumer purchasing power and weighs most heavily on those metropolitan areas and those suburbs where people have to drive the farthest,” Mr. Cortright notes in the report.
Higher gas prices negatively impact housing prices by sapping home buyers’ budgets and leaving less to spend on housing, and by making consumers less apt to bid more for homes in less centrally located suburbs, he explains.
The study notes that while initiatives by states and the federal government to ease the housing market’s woes will have some positive effect on the real-estate market in the months ahead, higher fuel costs will permanently impact the suburban landscape as more home buyers choose to reside in closer-in locations that offer shorter commutes and mass transit.
He point out that in metropolitan areas like Chicago, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Portland and Tampa, home prices have fallen more in farther-flung ZIP codes than in close-in neighborhoods. For instance, in Chicago, while housing prices have remained stable in close-in neighborhoods within three miles of the city’s central business district over the past 12 months, home prices have fallen 4% in “distant” neighborhoods 13 miles from the central business district. And in Los Angeles, while home prices have dropped 6% in close-in neighborhoods, they have decreased 10% in distant neighborhoods, according to the report.
From Bloomberg:
Libor Poised for Shake-Up as Credibility Is Doubted
The benchmark interest rate for $62 trillion of credit derivatives and mortgages for 6 million U.S. homeowners faces its biggest shakeup in a decade as lawmakers question if banks are understating borrowing costs.
For the first time since 1998, the British Bankers’ Association is considering changing the way it sets the London interbank offered rate, according to Chief Executive Officer Angela Knight, who is scheduled to appear before a parliamentary committee in London today. “We’ve put Libor under review,” Knight said in an interview. While she declined to discuss specifics, the BBA will announce changes May 30, she said.
The BBA, an unregulated London-based trade group, sets Libor by polling 16 banks each day on the rates they pay for loans in dollars, British pounds, euros and eight other currencies. The association is under pressure to show the rates are reliable following complaints by investors that financial institutions weren’t telling the truth after the collapse of subprime mortgages nine months ago contaminated credit markets and drove up borrowing costs.
While the BBA set the one-month dollar Libor rate at 2.72 percent on April 7, the Federal Reserve said banks paid 2.82 percent for secured loans later that day. Secured loans typically yield less than unsecured debt.
“The Libor numbers that banks reported to the BBA were a lie,” said Tim Bond, head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital in London. “They had been all the way along. The BBA has been trying to investigate them and that’s why banks have started to report the right numbers.”
From Bloomberg:
London Suffers Most Widespread House-Price Declines Since 1994
London’s property market had the most widespread price declines in at least 14 years last month as the slump in financial services deepened and banks curbed lending, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.
The number of residential property agents and surveyors saying prices fell in the capital exceeded those reporting gains by 94 percentage points in April, the lowest since records began in 1994, the group said today. The reading for the whole country fell to minus 95.1, the least since the series began in 1978.
The U.K. capital has “caught up with the rest of the country,” Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the London-based surveyors’ group, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “There has been a sea change, and it’s not wholly surprising given the impact of the financial-services industry.”
From MarketWatch:
Toll Brothers second-quarter home building revenues fall 30%
Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday second-quarter home-building revenues fell 30% to $817.9 million. “The just-completed spring selling season was quite weak,” Chairman and CEO Robert Toll said in a statement. Toll Brothers said it’s looking to use its $2.5 billion of available capital to make acquisitions that fit its criteria of “high-end communities at bargain prices,” but said it hasn’t seen any yet.
Maybe petroleum prices burst the Tulip Bubble also a few centuries ago in Holland ?
From the Record:
N.J. renters mostly safe from foreclosure
As a growing number of homeowners struggle with foreclosure, tenants might wonder what America’s real estate crisis means to them.
While nationwide, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, millions of homeowners and renters are in jeopardy of losing their homes, it’s a different story in New Jersey.
Sure, Garden State tenants could be served with a foreclosure notice just like a homeowner, but seldom do they have to pack their bags, said Connie Pascale, senior attorney at Legal Services of New Jersey (LSNJ).
In fact, he said, leaving good rental housing and the protection of the state’s Anti-Eviction Act is probably the last thing that tenants want to do.
“This is an issue well set in the law. The tenants have a right to stay,” Pascale said, describing New Jersey’s landlord/tenant laws as among the best in the nation and a victory for the 50,000-member New Jersey Tenants Organization.
“In terms of eviction, landlords can only evict for good cause,” Pascale advised — and foreclosure does not constitute good cause.
Decades ago, foreclosure could uproot both homeowner and tenant because it was seen as an exception to New Jersey’s Anti-Eviction Act of 1975.
Then in 1986, Pascale said, “The state Legislature made it clear they want to protect tenants.” Legislators put “successors in interest” — like mortgage companies — in the same shoes as landlords in having to protect tenants from foreclosure, he said.
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From Bloomberg:
Toll Brothers Revenue Drops as Housing Slump Persists
Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder, reported its eighth consecutive quarterly decline in revenue as demand for new homes tumbled.
Homebuilding revenue fell to $818 million in the fiscal second quarter from $1.17 billion a year earlier, the Horsham, Pennsylvania- based company said today in a statement. That beat the average estimate of $741 million from 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
New-home sales in the U.S. dropped in March to the lowest in almost 17 years as foreclosures reached a record and banks curtailed lending. Toll was also hurt by a slump in existing-home sales, which prevented some potential customers from trading up to new properties.
“The lack of demand right now is a huge challenge,” Dave Crossman, an analyst at Kirr Marbach & Co. in Columbus, Indiana, said before the results were issued. “They’re hunkering down, raising liquidity, biding their time until demand returns.”
…
The lower sales prices were partly due to fewer sales in more expensive markets such as California and Manhattan, Toll said.
Just voted grim. 9 to 1 lead right now.
Pianalto Says Inflation Is `Key Risk’ to Outlook (Update1)
By Anthony Massucci and Simon Kennedy
May 13 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said prices are rising faster than she’d like and inflation is a “key risk” to the economic outlook.
While interest-rate cuts since September are “compatible with a low and stable inflation rate,” prices are rising “somewhat faster than I would prefer,” Pianalto said in a speech in Paris today. “Inflation presents a key risk to my outlook.”
Can this article please explain why I’m seeing asking prices on train lines in Morris and Union with 15% and more yoy drops? Some of the houses are supposedly walking distance to the station with a sub 40 minute ride to Manhattan.
Also if someone can support a 600k mtg and live in Basking Ridge does it really matter to them if gas is $2.69 or $4.00? Even if they use 20 gallons a week it’s only another $25 a week. I doubt an extra $20 or $25 a week in gas prices is the reason I’m seeing 15% drops in houses and over 20% in townhouses in dear BR.
I think the real reason is lenders have taking away the punch bowl and are now require proof of income and a down payment.
That is so last century.
Anyone getting an “HTTP 500 Internal Server Error” when they try to post a comment?
“Gas Price Spike Popped the Housing Bubble and Devalued the Suburbs”
what a load of crap. Some sounds like they are just trying to pass blame.
SAS
Are people flocking to WalMart cause it cheap in order to save cash?
wouldn’t catch me in a Red China WalMart.
“Wal-Mart profit rises 6.9 pct, beats Street view”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080513/earns_wal_mart.html
SAS
-maybe those higher food prices isn’t such a bad thing afterall!
“U.S. obesity rates alarmingly high”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080512/hl_nm/us_obesity_dc;_ylt=ApWhM0KKnMtGxWZ5ty0hzQ6s0NUE
SAS
“Gas prices popped the home price bubble?”
No.
Gas prices may be a contributing factor to why housing prices outside of cities won’t be getting up off the mat anytime soon, but are not the reason the bubble burst.
“London’s property market had the most widespread price declines in at least 14 years last month as the slump in financial services deepened and banks curbed lending, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.”
Thank goodness NYC is immune, unlike London, because it is America’s financial capital, unlike London.
“Toll Brothers said it’s looking to use its $2.5 billion of available capital to make acquisitions that fit its criteria of “high-end communities at bargain prices,” but said it hasn’t seen any yet.”
BWAHAHAHAHAHA!
“Oil futures are now traded in the market, and in recent years, there have been massive influx of new money there. So, it is not only supply/demand, but speculative investors buying long-term oil futures (contracts). Classic definition of bubble.”
Jamil,
I didn’t distort anything that you said.
Do you think the physical market also realizes that crude is now traded in the market? If the speculators are driving the price to unrealistic/irrational prices why don’t hedgers stick it to them? Isn’t the market ultimately controlled by the commercials? Of course, I am assuming that hedgers understand that crude is now traded in the market?
Ron Bloomberg now batting.
Anyone getting an “HTTP 500 Internal Server Error” when they try to post a comment?
JB,
I get it all the time. Also, it is not saving my name and email address. I have to type this every time I post.
I am having a hard time believing that gas prices are to blame. I easily spend about 60 dollars a week in gas, up from 44 dollars 2 months ago. It sucks that I am paying an average 64 dollars a month but I don’t think it is a lot to cause home prices to pop. It figures that people like to blame others when they should blame themselves for greed and the ones that fueled the greed.
“Goldman Said Trying To Hush-Up Further Layoffs”
http://news.hereisthecity.com/news/business_news/7853.cntns
Damn, I was hoping it was just me.
Must be a problem with the upgrade I did last night.
“Kenneth C. Griffin, who runs one of the biggest and most successful hedge fund firms, has a blunt assessment: “We, as an industry, dropped the ball.”
“He is anxious about high-priced finance jobs moving abroad. And he is particularly galled with regulators in Washington who have overseen what he calls “the great depression on Wall Street.”
“Walk across any of the trading floors — they are full of 29-year-old kids,” he said. “The capital markets of America are controlled by a bunch of right-out-of-business-school young guys who haven’t really seen that much. You have a real lack of wisdom.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/business/13sorkin.html?_r=2&sq=hedge%20funds&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&scp=2&adxnnlx=1210680968-GQEQjtKzeRDqg3u+dlZB4Q
test
xyz
Bernanke speaking now on CNBC.
grim
have had error 500 and the reseting of user name and e-mail since i saw that new main page done up in blue yesterday
Still trying to fix this, if anyone is having problems posting, be sure to fill out all the fields (Name, Mail, Website).
NAR’s Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing
http://seekingalpha.com/article/76981-nar-s-lawrence-yun-continues-to-mislead-on-housing
#9 grim: I believe Ms. Pinalto should have a discussion with Mr. Evans.
If the oil prices are out of control because of market speculation… When is that bubble going to burst?
#17 njpatient: Maybe our sea of wealth is better than their sea of wealth.
“Home Prices: from the peak in 2006, home prices will decline to pre-1999 levels.”
hehe[30],
From your post.
I’ve stated that we are going back to 2001. We would retrace the preceding delusional gains. I hope I’m wrong.
#24 Bc Bob:You have a real lack of wisdom.”
That is because you got rif of a lot of us. Those that knew our business/products inside out, and those that lived through tough times, and knew how to be humble.
Then you looked around and said gee we are paying these old timers too much we can hire 2 or 3 for the price of one. 2 or 3 wet behind the ears vs. seasoned veterans.
2001 prices would be the best thing that could happen for any of the renters who didn’t or couldn’t buy in when the insanity was going on.
36 dough
2001 prices would be the best thing that could happen for any of the renters who didn’t or couldn’t buy in when the insanity was going on.
yes, but also consider what is going to happen to the tax burden! local and state government have gotten fat and happy on the tax revenue from the run up. do you think they are going to accept a20% cut in their revenue? they might have to fire some of their buddies and get rid of a few no-show jobs.
The question of whether the price of gasoline precipitated the pop of the housing bubble is clearly not answered with a simple yes or no. For the folks who are in the upper income ranges, for whom the difference of another $25 a month, or per day for that matter, commuting costs make no discernable difference in finances the increased cost of petrol will not put downward pressure on housing costs. That said, there are an awful lot of folks who moved to outlying suburbs in order to find cheaper housing because they just could not afford close-in housing prices. Inasmuch as it seems that many of these folks are living at the edge economically, even in an era of $ 1.50/gal gas, this spike in gas prices cannot help but reduce the desirability of the outer ‘burbs. It is one thing to make a 100-200 mile round trip commute when the cost of gas is more than offset by the reduction in housing costs. But, when fuel prices go up and one is faced with a hellish commute one no doubt begins to reconsider whether it is worth buying so far out. Less demand, lower prices.
A bright guy might form an LLP for building middle-class rental housing in some of the inner-ring ‘burbs, assuming the partnership could get the towns to allow high-rise developments.
37 Kettle:
I understand that. Maybe what happend in mission Vallejo will start to happen everywhere that the pigs have gotten too fat.
Grim,
After my post the name and mail boxes reset to blank and then I got a 404 error.
Anyone having problems posting:
Clear your cookies and log in again, should be resolved now.
36 dough
as someone said yesterday. If we go back to 99-01 prices, then we are likely to see property tax bills costing as much or more then many p eoples house note.
We should all be aware that if housing does go to 99-01 prices (and even if it stops short of that) a large percentage of the boomers retirement savings are wiped out (that wonderful investment vehicle called realestate). this is going to have huge consequences over the next decade as we will either have the choice of the letting our elderly wither away scraping by on alpo and friskies or have the government bolster SS/medicare/medicaid in order to make up the difference.
The boomers have a large enough population in numbers alone for force through a “senior” bailout package. say hello to another 10 trillion in borrowed money
This can’t be good –
“Survey: 1 in 10 boomers borrowing for everyday expenses”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080513/ap_on_bi_ge/economy_survey
NEW YORK – The economic downturn is hitting roughly one in 10 middle-aged and older Americans especially hard, compelling them to borrow money for everyday living expenses and to seek help from family, friends or charities, according to a survey released Tuesday by the AARP.
After my post the name and mail boxes reset to blank and then I got a 404 error.
Let me know if this is still happening.
shore,
gas prices are not the cause of the housing bubble burst. as you pointed out people shifted to the far out burbs in order to escape astronomical housing prices. The glut of cheap money hot of greenspans press is the cause. the housing bubble was essentially a giant ponzi scheme and like any ponzi scheme once you run out of idiots the pyramid collapses.
if people were still paying no more then 20% of their income for housing, then the average american would be able to absorb the higher gas prices without much distress.
Grim: See if you want to apply for this Google pilot program,
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1739429,00.html?imw=Y
# 45 Agreed.
Grim
“Clear your cookies” it sounds like a more urbane form of “toss your cookies.”
BC,
I thought 1999 was a bit much of a drop too but given most of the run-up really happened between 2001-2005 it probably isn’t that much of a difference.
43 gl
you may consider beefing up your portfolio with some of these companies ( any finance advice is tongue in cheek only)
The Meow Mix Company
American Nutrition, Inc.
Breeder’s Choice Pet Foods, Inc.
The Hartz Mountain Corporation
Old Mother Hubbard, Inc.
Hill’s Pet Nutrition, Inc.
United Pet Group, Inc.
The Iams Company
Land O’Lakes Purina Feed LLC
# 45
This is not unlike the situation with respect to people going bankrupt. So many say,it happened because of the medical bill, or the job loss, yadda yadda, when, in fact, it was the overspending BEFORE the medical bill or job loss that set the stage. The medical bill or job loss is just the last straw.
When one thinks about it, even if people in the outer ring ‘burbs had gas prices increase $400 a month, if that $400 pushes one over the edge, one had been dancing awfully close to it in the first place.
Boxes no longer clearing after a post.
Gas Prices? Another Silver Bullet cause/cure. Oh good. So if gas goes down to $1.99, all will be solved. Idiot.
Oh, I agree Kettle. There is a bunch of factors that are tied to the rediculous prices that are going to make a lot of people feel some fallout from this mess. Those are the same people that bet on the speculation and were on the positive site of the bet until the bubble started to deflate.
SSI is screwed regardless and there is going ot be a boomber bailout regardless. There aren’t enough of us (GenX GenY) to handle the load.
Increase the amount of teat sucking from Govt handouts and WE (those who don’t qualify for any of it or won’t take it) are in for the short end of the stick… again.
# 42 ” this is going to have huge consequences over the next decade as we will either have the choice of the letting our elderly wither away scraping by on alpo and friskies or have the government bolster SS/medicare/medicaid in order to make up the difference.”
Or most people will have to reassess what a retirement home and retirement living is. Instead of golf 3 times a week and living in a 1,200-3,000 sq. ft. open-floor-plan sfh someplace, and trips here and there, and a new car every 3 years, it may become living in a high-rise, in 800 sq. ft. apartment, using mass transit for most travel. Our current view of retirement living is largely a creation of the ’60s and ’70s and was only possible because of our unquestioned economic dominance after WWII. Times have changed and we are not the only dog on the block anymore. With changed circumstances may need to come changed expectations. No one should have to eat friskies or shiver in the night. That said, leaving a life of luxurious leisure for 40 years after leaving the workforce may not be an option except for the upper 3-5% of retirees.
Grim – re 65 Elston – did a quick look online in the Monmouth County tax database. I’m surprised the improvement portion of the assessment was so high, given the condition that you’re reporting. They may have denied ASI access for an inspection, and gotten penalized for that.
When I saw the owner of record though, I had to laugh. The wife is a big flower child, hippy dippy doula type and she and her husband were big proponents of home birthing, so perhaps the closet shower was intentional and some type of birthing room.
Their son also got arrested last year for trespassing while illegally skateboarding. Mom and Dad then went on a royal crusade to get tax strapped Montclair to build a skate park.
On topic of how far down the house prices will go (i.e. 99, 01, 03 etc…). Here are some important factors to consider.
1. Employment: It seems FSI is going to lead this. It would be great if someone can define a model for NJ area. Additionally NJ is loosing its grip on Big Pharma. Is any industry is looking at NJ?
2. Income: Anecdotally, I am seeing lot of high paying jobs are being replaced by low paying ones. That does not bear well for housing.
3. Demographics: Clearly on this topic Boomers are not going to retire in NJ due to higher property taxes. In fact even Exburbs don’t seem to be good choice as I see taxes there are much higher due to lack of Commercial taxes. Some would move to downtown areas, but I think majority can’t give up suburban life style easily for condo.
4. Supply of New Housing: The psychological impact of they are not making more land anymore, had to do lot with housing boom. The actual numbers are saying new housing has kept pace with population growth at least. But I think more important issue here is obligations towns have w.r.t. Mt. Laurel decisions mandated by COAH. With new number of 115000 affordable homes, you are looking at at least 300K to 400K new homes in next 10 to 15 years. A huge increase to say the least.
5. Inflation: I think most agree we are going into higher inflation mode due to Oil and commodity prices. I think Chinese imports will get expensive as time goes by, affective consumer spending.
With so many negatives, how do you define floor on home prices? To all finance wizards, is it possible to model all other parameters along with home prices and see co-relation?
Now I am wondering, is there any positive news that I am missing.
Gas prices popped the home price bubble?
Video killed the radio star.
# 43
From the article: “While the survey doesn’t show large numbers of people making radical changes — taking second jobs or moving to a smaller home — it did find that more than one-quarter of those surveyed are having trouble paying their mortgage or rent.
Compared with older people, a greater percentage of younger baby boomers, those 45 to 54, said they were cutting back on medications, prematurely withdrawing retirement funds and postponing paying bills.
“For the younger boomers, it’s been an especially rude wake-up call,” said Jim Dau, a spokesman for the AARP, a nonprofit that advocates Americans 50 and older.”
Cutting back on medication instead of moving to a less expensive home? WTF? Are people THAT concerned with image?
patient (17)-
“Thank goodness NYC is immune, unlike London, because it is America’s financial capital, unlike London.”
I thought London was the financial capital of the US. :)
51 shore
i agree with one important exception. You idea holds for people who make the median income or higher. put if you remember the chart i posted the other day, $4.50 gas is approx 40% of a families gross income if they are in the bottom 20% of family earners. ( 20% of american families make 25K/yr or less).
current gas prices can be crippling to these families
BC (19)-
I’m getting the feeling you may be talking to a wall there.
Grim – I was having a problem getting it to “refresh” and add new posts – cleared up now… Cindy
Ket (42) – Senior bailout package is troubling, but the junior bailout package, coupled with future energy prices will cause unimaginable pain, in many forms.
I agree with BC to some extent. ’99 prices are already here in some areas of NNJ and CNJ, if you adjust the prices for Inflation. I posted one such house (MLS 2504058) yesterday. If you adjust for inflation, prices are at least in 2000 territory.
# 57 “Some would move to downtown areas, but I think majority can’t give up suburban life style easily for condo.”
I have always been a bit wary about condos and their associations. The whole extragovernmental rulemaking authority leaves me cold.
Now, looking at what is happening in places like South Florida where many owners have not been keeping up with maint. fees (in some instances a large majority of the owners are failing to pay) the common costs are being put on the other folks and some of them are getting $25-50,000 supplemental assessments, on top of the regular maint./association fees, I can’t imagine EVER buying a condo. An apartment is fine, and a fee-simple townhouse strikes me as fine, but a condo? No way.
I have pondered whether the townhouse close to work, and the country house for weekends might not become a model for the future, at least for the middle-middle class and upper middle class and above, instead of the post-war ‘burbs we all know so well. In essence, the burbs are a combination of the two.
re 59
Who was it buying all the McMansions in the country?
It has been obvious for years that that was foolish.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. import prices up 1.8% in April as petroleum gains
Prices paid for imported goods rose 1.8% in April, the Labor Department reported Tuesday, as costs for petroleum and other products gained.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for an increase of 1.8%.
The price for imported petroleum rose 4.4%.
The price for non-petroleum products rose 1.1% for the second consecutive month — matching the largest one-month gain for the index since these prices were first published on a monthly basis beginning in December 1988.
The prices for non-fuel imports rose 1.0% — matching the prior month’s gain — the largest one-month increase since the index was first published in December 2001.
For the 12 months through April, prices for imports gained 15.4%. The rise in import prices for March was revised to 2.9% from a prior estimate of 2.8%.
There has been concern that rising import prices and the long upward trend in food and energy commodities are keeping pressure on core inflation.
# 61 “current gas prices can be crippling to these families”
Ket,
I do not disagree with you at all. If it appeared that I did, it was just my inartful statement of my position, which I will attribute to one-too-little cup of coffee this morning.
From Bloomberg:
Bank of America Sees Higher Losses on Home Equity
Bank of America Corp., the second- biggest U.S. bank, widened its forecast of home-equity loan losses beyond projections offered last month, adding to evidence that more consumers are falling behind on the debts.
The bank expects losses to top 2.5 percent of its $118 billion in loans linked to home values, Liam McGee, president of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company’s consumer and small business division, said at a conference in New York sponsored by UBS AG. The bank previously projected a loss rate of between 2 percent and 2.5 percent.
Bank of America, the nation’s largest credit-card issuer, is also seeing a “recent sharp increase” in spending on necessities by its credit-card customers. That has curbed retail, travel and entertainment purchases, McGee said. Economists and bankers have said the economy may be teetering near a recession as consumers struggle with job losses and gasoline prices topping $4 a gallon.
McGee said Bank of America expects the economy, measured by real gross domestic product, will shrink in the second quarter. The bank had $184 billion of credit card debt outstanding at the end of the first quarter and about a 20 percent market share.
# 67
How long will it be before many McMansions are subdivided into flats and the lawns are covered with rusting junk cars and tubs turned into flower gardens?
The current COAH requirements seem like a ‘forced” fix. what i mean is that given the number of affordable housing untis mandated and the additional construction that would accompnay the affordable housing we are going to create a bigger problem then we will fix.
We already have a glut of homes on the market and prices are falling or soon will be. So what happens when you build 140,000 units in a town at the same time that housing prices are going down and likely to stay there for5 – 10 years ( assuming we see similiar behavior to the early 90’s bubble).
who wants to bet that in 10 years a large % of this affordable housing will be slums. Not because of the income level of the people who the housing is intended for, but because there is currently a net exodus from NJ , taxes are only going up (an accelerating factor) and housing prices are going down.
This is a perfect storm waiting to happen. you have towns hurting for tax revenue due to the decrease in housing and you want to add a large # of units that will have a net effect of increasing the tax burden. this is how you kill a town
wag,
junior bailout?
#71 – How long did it take the upper class areas of Plainfield and Newark to go from regal mansions to run-down tenements?
Shore (38)-
The whole “blame the bubble pop on gasoline prices” argument is an interesting one, albeit a bit narrow and simplistic.
My personal “aha” moment was Katrina and the following weeks in 2005. Up until Katrina, our sales pace was normal (read: on fire), and we couldn’t keep a property on the market for more than 20-30 days, no matter what the price.
If I remember correctly, Katrina was followed immediately by gas prices going over $3 (a killer to the Labor Day weekend) and natural gas going to $14 (a real killer to someone trying to sell a house).
All that Fall, my buyers started thinking of their purchases not in terms of “how do I beat the other buyers who want this house” but “how do I afford this house, with $3 gasoline and a killer heating bill”. Gas prices didn’t necessarily kill the housing bubble, but they caused enough pause for some degree of sanity to enter the market. At the very least, they certainly reintroduced the concepts of value and affordability back into the purchase equation.
Ket (73) – Junior bailout, in the sense of all the current twenty somethings who have absolutely nothing saved nor, plan to save for the future.
shore 71,
most modern mcmansions are to poorly constructed to hold up for any period of time if they are being used as flats. that is another chicken that is yet to come home and roost. Half of the new developments are so poorly constructed that in 15 – 20 years a large percentage will be crumbling.
76 wag
welcome to Serfdom 2.0
Shore (66)-
You’d be surprised how many condo associations in NJ are skating along the edge of ruin.
There is a beautiful complex near me (on a golf course!) that nearly lost its preferred tax status with the IRS, due to years of failure to report and mismanagement. When the new ass’n was elected, the reserves were depleted (as HOA fees had been kept unrealistically low for years), and several capital projects had to be started immediately, as the whole place was beginning to fall apart.
Now, the complex has homes with an average value in the low 300’s, property taxes over $7,500/unit and monthly fees close to $500. It also has a striking number of older folks, living on fixed incomes.
Talk about disaster…
GAZUNDER
From:
http://www.firsthomebuyer.co.uk/th-master.php?file=gazunder.xml
# Make your initial offer for the property close to the asking price, so there will be little time wasted negotiating and the seller will feel confident with your offer.
# Surprise is part of the strategy, so don’t give any clues what you plan to do.
# Choose a reasonable discount to ask for – typically between 5% and 20%
# Request the discount within 24 hours before the exchange of contracts, the later the better. It is best to do this after the seller has already exchanged contracts on the next house he is buying, so if you can find out the date that happens then you will have the upper hand. Alternatively, gazundering 4 – 6 hours before the exchange gives the seller time to try and push down the price of the next house he is buying.
23 grim
I was having to type in my info each time as well, though that seems to be cured. I have been (and still am) unable to re-load comments on my bberry this morning – I get a “HTTP Error 404: Not Found” message.
From DealBreaker:
Layoff Watch 08: Round Two Of UBS Cuts
Another round of layoffs at UBS is underway today, according to a person familiar with the situation. The asset management and wealth management units are said to be on the chopping block. Investment banking is also expecting cuts.
Oddly enough, the municipal bond unit, which is reportedly set to be shuttered by UBS, has been asked to “hold on” as the bank attempts to see if there are any buyers for the business, according to our source.
UBS could not immediately be reached for comment on the job cuts.
33 3b
I like to think it’s because New York is filled with Americans and London is filled with filthy foreigners.
# 77
So it seems. Most of our friends and colleagues live in homes much grander than ours. That said, except for the folks who bought mansions built in the ’20s or earlier, or a few who built multi-million custom places on the water, I would not trade for any of them. The contractors seem to hire from any street corner, and the workmanship shows it — if one looks closely. But, folks get bowled over by superficial things that do not matter.
Our home will not wow very many people, it is a simple 3,300 ft. sq. CHC on less than an acre. Still, we own it outright, and, unlike many folks who are scrimping to make too-large payments, the furnishings (also paid for) are of high quality and will last a lifetime.
This focus on flash and image cannot pass fast enough for me. Quality has always been key, and I trust it will again come into fashion.
Drat. #85 moderated.
I have been (and still am) unable to re-load comments on my bberry this morning – I get a “HTTP Error 404: Not Found” message.
Are you using the built-in browser? I’m not having a problem on my BB8830. Any other BB users having issues?
Shore (84)-
“This focus on flash and image cannot pass fast enough for me.”
Shore, when has it ever been any different here? I’m 48, and I’ve never known it any other way.
Screw the boomers.
In the 60’s they wanted free love, in the 80’s they wanted free money, in the 00’s they want free retirement.
# 79 Yeesh. That is a great example of why the whole condo concept bothers me.
38 shore
Given that housing prices started collapsing long before there was an appreciable reduction in other types of consumer spending, I’m gonna have to disagree.
What the heck are you people talking about gas prices will cripple low income or lower middle income people. First of all it is the mcmansion crowd who bought a 5K sq ft oil heated house out in the sticks and leased two SUVS that require a dual income to support. Those fools paying to heat or cool a 5k square foot house and fed those SUVs on those long trips to everywhere will suffer. Plus energy prices have also driven up the electricity for that monster house.
In my neighborhood the lower income crowd lives in little capes, ranches, condos or apts. and drive plain old toyotas or taurus to their nearby crappy jobs. In the five boros and JC/Hoboken the people rent and don’t even pay for heat or own a car.
The overextended trade up house crowd with two incomes where both husband and wife drive to work are absolutely being killed by $4 gas.
People like me who take the train to work and never had time to trade up and is heating a small house even $6 dollar gas is not that big a deal. Maybe this summer I will buy more local grown fruits and veggies and skip the pineapples from Hawaii and wine from France. I can do just fine with a nice Pindar, NJ Milk and a nice NY cortland apple.
# 85
Is that Rome? France? The British Empire? Or some other empire whose citizens are failing to do the things necessary to maintain its status?
From NJBIZ:
Spiraling Costs Give Restaurants Indigestion
Soaring food prices are creating distress for restaurant owners across New Jersey who face a tough choice: hike menu prices and risk losing customers, or swallow the costs at the expense of profits.
For now at least, many say they’re absorbing the increases and hoping to hang on until the economy improves.
“My cost for rice alone has gone up 15 percent in recent months,” says Sneh Mehtani, the 60-year-old owner of nine eating and drinking establishments in New Jersey. She wants to raise her menu prices to cover the increased costs, but fears the impact on business at a time when fewer people are dining out.
“We usually serve [a total] of about 300 meals on a Saturday night, but recently we’re down to about 160 to 200,” says Mehtani, whose properties include the Moghul Indian restaurant in Morristown and Ming, a Chinese restaurant in Edison.
“With the economy in bad shape, people want to spend $5 on a meal, not $25, so this would be a bad time to increase our menu prices. But at some point I’ll have to.”
Rising costs and an apparent drop in customer traffic have driven one popular Morristown restaurant out of business, says Helene Elbaum, a property manager with Newmark Associates in Whippany.
“The Ora restaurant closed down in December, right before the holidays,” says Elbaum, who manages the property. Ora, which served continental cuisine, had received praise from The New York Times.
42 kettle
property taxes will be raised to wherever they need to be raised in order to produce X revenue in constant dollars. What percentage of property value that is is dependent on how far prices fall, but it doesn’t change the dollar amount that people will be paying for a given plot. For that reason, I don’t see any issue, from a tax perspective, with prices falling to 1999 levels.
43 gl
“Survey: 1 in 10 boomers borrowing for everyday expenses”
Blast. Does that mean we can’t blame only pretorius’s generation?
# 89 It sounds like a slogan for a tee shirt or a button.
Re: Our home will not wow very many people, it is a simple 3,300 ft. sq. CHC on less than an acre.
You basically just described a 3 million dollar home in Manhasset Long Island and you call it modest.
NJ patient 96,
i take offense to that!
What the heck is it with rice? It is just a bunch of carbs! Potatos did not go up in price so why the heck don’t they just eat potatos.
91
It was not my intent to posit a causal relationship. My observation is just that the increase in fuel prices will likely put additional downward pressure on the outer ‘burbs, with respect to lower income folks who commute a long distance.
51 shore
“even if people in the outer ring ‘burbs had gas prices increase $400 a month, if that $400 pushes one over the edge, one had been dancing awfully close to it in the first place.”
now THAT I agree with. And $400/month is likely significantly more than the actual marginal increase for most NJ commuters.
I agree with this article, although I will be purchasing a place in suburbia (Hillsborough). I made sure I was within reasonable commuting distance of several job centers and corridors when purchasing. I was looking at train towns like Metuchen (out of my price range) and up and coming places like New Brunswick (my aim is bad) and Rahway (priced as if the renovations were done, which is not a sure thing by any stretch – already condo projects are turning into rentals). Unfortunately NJT only benefits the NYC, Newark, or JC commuter and since that’s not me, I opted for suburbia – ironically I will be driving less than I would had I chosen Metuchen or Rahway. Luckily 90% of my errands can be done on 206 (provided I get an early start – ha!).
I think values will drop like a lead balloon and stay that way in far-flung exurbs where getting a quart of milk is a 6 mile odyssey and commuting to any job is a 50 mile one way schlep. I’m hoping close-in suburbs hold their value – we’ll still have to drive for 99% of daily living, but driving 12 miles vs. 60 miles to work is a major difference. As usual, the working class will suffer the most – a grocery store manager commuting from Toms River up to say, Bloomfield is looking at close to $600 a month in gasoline. If you’re rich, no biggie, but if you’re at $50k (and counting on overtime to get there) you’re hosed.
gator
“Their son also got arrested last year for trespassing while illegally skateboarding. Mom and Dad then went on a royal crusade to get tax strapped Montclair to build a skate park.”
BARF
Lower income folks in the NJ burbs tend to commute via carpool, train or bicycle. Out where I live, we don’t even have enough lower-income people to staff entry-level jobs. Many stores & fast food places minivan their employees from Newark, Union, etc.
Prices down to 1999 prices? Can we start with 2004 prices first? Please, give me a break. The majority of listings I receive that I deem worthy to live in are still near peak prices. I’m not even talking about granite and stainless.
Wake me up when there’s substantial price drops instead of the dream scenario everyone’s wishing for.
An example of the underlying problem is the woman below. Even if her rate were “just” 15%, paying $160 a month, and not putting any more purchases onher card (unlikely) it would take 63 months for her to pay off her debt on that one credit card.
With a slew of folks in her boat, where are the qualified borrowers going to come from to keep prices up, when the myth of ever-rising prices has at last been put to rest?
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/226/story/36507.html
Credit card nightmares prompt long-awaited crackdown
By Tony Pugh | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Friday, May 9, 2008
WASHINGTON — What prompted a slew of new federal proposals to combat abusive practices in the credit card industry depends on whom you talk to in Washington.
[snip]
And not a moment too soon for such folks as Kathi Parlier of Newnan, Ga., whose credit card interest rate jumped from about 7 percent to 32 percent in 2004 after a property foreclosure damaged her credit rating. Parlier, 42, said she’d never made a late payment on the card.
“I could deal with it going to 12 to 15 percent, but considering I was never late, they never should have gone up on it like that,” Parlier said. “They shouldn’t be able to do that.”
[snip]
That provision alone would have saved Parlier thousands of dollars. Her card balance was nearly $7,000 when the rate hike kicked in. The higher interest rate — now about 29 percent — means only a small portion of her payments go toward her debt.
“I paid $160 last month and $108 of that was finance charges, so I’ve only got $52 going to principal,” Parlier said. “I always pay a little more than the minimum, otherwise I would never get it paid off.”
95 patient,
let me make sure i understand your point…. your saying that while the tax % will increase the actual cost (i.e 10k/yr) will remain the same?
Perhaps in the more insulated towns that have stringer financial fundamentals, but i dont not think that will be the case for most.
Look at hunterdon county, you had tax revenue sjy rocket over the last 10 years in step with housing
SO you pay 12K/yr in taxes on your 800K mcmansion. But who is oing to be willing to pay that same 12K in taxes when that house is only worth 500-600K Also consider that the state of NJ is i decline and that most growth is in low wage areas. NJ has lost/ is losing the high paid worker base required to support such taxes. I also think that people will start to balk at the taxes when they see that the taxes are actually about the same cost as the PI on the house.
Add the potential tax burden increase due to COAH driven construction and you end up trying to squeeze blood from a stone
patient (104)-
I say, build skate parks…but ring them with sniper perches and allow target shooting.
59 Shore
“Cutting back on medication instead of moving to a less expensive home? WTF? Are people THAT concerned with image?”
I think this says as much about the medication as anything else. Folks are taking cocktails of antidepressants, ritalin and g*d knows what else that they don’t really need (obviously some folks do, but there’s been an insanity of overmedication ever since pharmaceuticals could be directly marketed on my teevee).
59 Shore
“Cutting back on medication instead of moving to a less expensive home? WTF? Are people THAT concerned with image?”
I think this says as much about the medication as anything else. Folks are taking c*cktails of antidepressants, ritalin and g*d knows what else that they don’t really need (obviously some folks do, but there’s been an insanity of overmedication ever since pharmaceuticals could be directly marketed on my teevee).
vodka (108)-
Precisely. All other questions become moot when you consider that the primary challenge is the long-term erosion of our tax base as people leave in ever-increasing numbers.
Reversing the trend of an eroding tax base is akin to turning an even bigger battleship than that of declining RE values. I cannot think of one instance in American history in which an area experiencing an eroding tax base actually reversed the trend. Look at Cleveland, Detroit, Philly, etc. These cities will never come back.
# 110 Just remember, as the TV commercial says, “If you experience an erection that lasts more than four hours, seek help immediatly.”
Grim,
Can you look at NJMLS Listing Number: 2819510 and tell me what is up? There are no pics, but I don’t get it, is this a joke? 6.5 MIL?
Typo?
From the AP:
Median home prices drop in many cities
Median home prices fell in two-thirds of the cities surveyed during the first three months of this year, a real estate trade group reported Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors said that median prices for existing single-family homes dropped in 100 of 149 metropolitan areas in the January-March period, while 48 metropolitan areas saw prices increase and one reported no change.
Nationally, the median home price — the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less — fell to $196,300 in the first quarter, down by 7.7 percent from the same period a year ago, when the median sales price was $212,600.
The steep price decline was the latest indication of the problems facing the housing market, which is in a prolonged slump that has dragged down sales and home prices.
# 111 “eroding tax base ”
Well, this is solved by incresing taxes, no?
shore 112
i thought that was a feature!
60 clot
“I thought London was the financial capital of the US. :)”
True. I forgot for a moment. So what is the London housing crash going to do the price of Manhattan housing? Weren’t they buying our property with all of their leftover money?
What are the odds that any of this goes to pay down existing debt?
“Buono said the state is expected to collect $600 million more than what was initially estimated for the fiscal year that ends June 30.”
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/NEWS/80513009
104 Patient – Well you know their son wasn’t at fault and it wasn’t their bad parenting either. He was just being persecuted for doing something he loved.
Sad to see (but not surprising) they ran their finances with the same amount of order and discipline that they were raising their kids.
Shore (112)-
Seems like the solution to that is to seek more women immediately.
From Bloomberg:
Home Prices Fall in Two-Thirds of U.S. Cities on Foreclosures
Housing prices fell in two-thirds of U.S. cities in the first three months of the year as a rise in foreclosures depressed property values and home sales tumbled 22 percent, the National Association of Realtors said.
The median price for a single-family home fell in 100 of 149 metropolitan areas studied by the Chicago-based real estate trade group. Home sales, including single-family houses and condominiums, dropped to 4.95 million at an annualized pace from 6.36 million a year ago, the group said in separate reports today.
Home prices are falling as foreclosed properties reduce the value of nearby real estate, said Lawrence Yun, the realtor group’s chief economist. U.S. foreclosure filings more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of foreclosure data, said in a study released April 29.
“Prices have fallen in neighborhoods with a wide prevalence of subprime loans, because more foreclosed properties are being sold at discounted prices,” Yun said in today’s report.
From CNN/Money:
Home prices continue sharp descent
Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982.
The median sales price fell to $196,300, down 4.8% compared with the last three months of 2007.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR, attributed much of the record decline to liquidity problems dragging down high-priced markets.
“These are highly unusual results because there were very few jumbo loan originations in the latest quarter,” he said. “So sales are much slower in high-cost areas.”
65 SG
“If you adjust for inflation, prices are at least in 2000 territory.”
That depends. Are you adusting for inflation, or are you adjusting for “Inflation”?
#42 Strawman.
But the people in small capes are now paying $350-$400 per month to fill the oil tank.
per the inflation calculator
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi
a $600K house in 1999 costs $760K in 2007 factoring in inflation.
#118 shore: I am curious as to just where this additional found revenue is coming from.
# 116 During Prohibition, one of the wineries down in South Jersey came up with a concoction that could pass the rules for alcohol content but when chilled to freezing would release the alcohol into the beverage. The packaging had a big warning on it to the effect of: Do NOT freeze, as this will cause alcohol to enter the drink.
I think the four-hour warning is meant to serve the same puropse.
#117 njpatient: I already told you our sea of wealth is better than theirs.
And anyhow that story is probably just anecedotal.
BC
you will appreciate the irony in this
from telegraph.uk.co
Crude ceased to be a friend of equities when it reached around $110 a barrel. At last week’s close of $126, it became an outright threat. The Bush rescue package – $800 in rebate cheques per household – has been rendered null and void by the latest spike. The average US home is now spending over 8pc of income on energy or fuel.
OPEC is playing with fire by refusing to pump more oil to offset rebel attacks in Nigeria. The cartel’s output drop of 350,000 barrels a day in April is a hostile act at this point.
But there again, why should Middle Eastern states help America as long as the White House keeps filling the US petroleum reserve to prepare for war with Iran? Bush is playing with fire, too.
#106 gary: Time for your yoga seesions and Enya CD’s.
grim, re: 121 & 122, any data for NJ ?
# 129
What is folks’ assessment of what happens to RE prices if, or as I suspect when, Bush launches an attack on Iran in mid November?
Mike,
Yes, but the NAR hasn’t yet updated the spreadsheets on their site.
3b [130],
I wouldn’t mind some yoga and maybe a hit of xanax… you can keep the Enya (whatever that is) CD’s, though.
But honestly, I’m just calling it as I see it.
87 grim
pulled out the battery
problem solved.
#105 clot:Out where I live, we don’t even have enough lower-income people to staff entry-level jobs.
You don’t have them, or the residents refuse to work at those jobs.
I am amaazed at the amount of resumes I see, from young college grads, who have never, ever, worked a single day in their life in any capacity.
Now they expect because they graduated from (fill in your latest buzzz college or university) that they should be paid big bucks
Again I am truly amazed young people 22, 23, 24 years old who have never, ever been employed.
Re 125, since when is inflation a god given right. Tell that to folks who bought internet stocks.
Most towns have three to five year committments on salaries, benefits, bond debt payments, rents, car leases etc. If home prices fall like a brick in 2009, lets say a 600K house becoms a 300K house the towns will have little choice but to double the tax rate on the house to get the same taxes. That plus many towns (including mine) experienced a mini baby boom during 2003 to 2007 when times were good)all those kids are hitting the schools starting next year at a time when fuel costs are way up and the new teachers will be getting the good multi year packages they got the taxpayers to sign off on in 2006/2007. Plus a RE downturn cuts sales tax projections which is a second source of revenues so that has to be made up somewhere. Finally, your towns pensions are guaranteed the low interest rates of today and the shaky stock market will hurt your pension projections and you will have to pony up more money in taxes to cover them.
You guys are smoking the wacky tobbacy in your peace pipes if you think RE taxes will fall in halp when your home values fall in half. Unless the garbage men, teachers and cops take a voluntary pay cut, HA HA>
Way back in the day coops that had high maint verus coops that had low maint we used a general rule of thumb that for every 100K a month extra in maint the buyer wanted 10K off the price of the coop. People will buy little capes with high taxes as people only care about monthly costs. So that couple that sells and moves down south we sell it at a loss to cover the taxes for the new guy and the town will still get the same amounts.
grim,
Please un-mod me.
Shore Guy #59: For many boomers who have been in their homes a long time, there is no such thing as a less expensive home. If your home is paid for and you have no mortgage, it’s going to be tough to find a less expensive place. It isn’t all about greedy boomers living in McMansions and stealing all our money yada yada fill in the rest of the standard anti-boomer cliches here.
# 136 “You guys are smoking the wacky tobbacy in your peace pipes if you think RE taxes will fall in halp when your home values fall in half. Unless the garbage men, teachers and cops take a voluntary pay cut, HA HA”
As I read this it got me wondering whether school districts and towns might not seek the cover of Chapter 9 in order to get out from under some of these previously-agreed-to expenses.
Question for all the landlords out there.
I have a friend who is currently 4.5 months into a one year lease. He’s having a problem with pests (roaches) that are not originating from his apartment but are coming in from somewhere. He has contacted the property manager and landlord but never gets a response. If this problem can not be rectified does he have the ability to terminate the lease early without losing his security deposit?
From MarketWatch:
No spring bounce for housing, Toll CEO says
The chief executive of Toll Brothers, the nation’s largest builder of luxury homes, on Tuesday said buyers didn’t materialize this spring as sales and prices continued to plunge in the company’s latest quarter.
…
“The just-completed spring selling season was quite weak in most markets as buyers remained on the sidelines,” said Robert Toll, chief executive, in a statement. He said buyers are afraid to buy a home, only to see it fall in value.
…
Toll’s early second-quarter numbers “brought further confirmation that this year’s spring selling season has again been a letdown,” wrote Deutsche Bank analysts in an investor note Tuesday.
#138 John: Towns will just simply readjust the tax rate up, and the assessed values down, so that they collect the same amount of money.
I find it ironic that in my town some of the biggest cheer leaders for uncontrolled school construction spending, are now howling mad about our out of control property taxes.
One has to ask what did you think would happen?
# 140 I am also a boomer. That said, I was pointing to the part of the article that said “more than one-quarter of those surveyed are having trouble paying their mortgage or rent.” In instances where people cannot make the mortgage or rent they must seriously consider moving to a less expensive house, town, or state. If one has a medical conditionthat requires medicine (say heart issue, diabetes, hypertension) and one decides, heck, I will cut back on these so I can make the mortgage payment, one’s priorities are, im my view, upside down. One’s home is important, but it is not THAT important.
John 138,
We are saying the same thing as you.
# 142 Even if he cannot terminate the lease, I suspect that he can hire an exterminator (and maybe take some additional action to remediate the situation) and use that as partial in-kind payment towards rent — if he puts the landlord on notice that he is going to do this and gives the landlord an opportunity to take care of it.
shore 141
declaring bankruptcy will only hurt a town further. who is going to buy a house that already carries ridiculous taxes in a town that just declared bankruptcy protection?
The bankruptcy alone would reduce home values int hat ton and exacerbate the situation
# 148 I do not know that you are incorrect. On the other hand, if they were able to repudiate certain obligations, lessening the need for increasing taxes……………….
#142,
He screwed. Can’t get out of lease. Shore’s comment above is valid as long as he gets access to his roach infested neighboors.
That’s a minor downside to renting.
Off topic but just too good to pass up. All I can say is oy. what a headline!
Drunk ‘Darth Vader’ punished for Jedi attack
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080513/od_afp/britaincourtoffbeatentertainmentfilmstarwars;_ylt=AnTP.wkmK7QcoyM61d8CGFhvaA8F
88 clot
“Shore, when has it ever been any different here? I’m 48, and I’ve never known it any other way.”
Same here. Was just watching the Pop-Up Video version of Wall Street, and apparently the watch that Gordon Gekko wears in the film sold out following the release of the film.
Even in the ’50s, it was the age of the conspicious perfect family and c*cktail.
It was probably different in the ’30s.
Doyle (114),
It was a typo that was corrected today
2401461
ACT 88 INSLEY AVE $599,900 1/16/2004
ACT* 88 INSLEY AVE $599,900 2/3/2004
U/C 88 INSLEY AVE $599,900 3/22/2004
SLD 88 INSLEY AVE $580,000 6/3/2004
2714277 Withdrawn
ACT 88 INSLEY AVE $750,000 4/11/2007
W-U 88 INSLEY AVE $750,000 5/24/2007
2819510
ACT 88 INSLEY AVE $659,900 5/12/2008
PCH* 88 INSLEY AVE $659,900 5/13/2008
#149 – I see where you’re going with that… However, since their biggest expense would probably be pensioned/retired employees would Ch. 9 allow them out from under those obligations?
Regionally, the median existing single-family home price in the
Northeast rose 3.2 percent to $280,000 in the first quarter from the same
period in 2007.
Let me chime in as one of those who would never buy a condo – for most of the reasons already thrown out there. Can’t imagine hocking myself like that.
SS 142,
as long as your friend documents that he has made multiple attempts to contact the landlord and have the problem corrected he can withhold a portion of the rent until the situation is resolved. i have had to do this before but follow the rules or you can get burned.
he may want to consult an attorney first as i no nothing about law
Q. When can a tenant withhold rents pending repairs by a landlord, or in the alternative, deduct the costs of such repairs from the rent?
A. A landlord warrants to the tenant that the leased property is habitable. This is known as the implied warrant of habitability. This warranty is not against all inconveniences or discomforts. A claimed defect must directly affect the tenant’s ability to occupy the demised (rented) premises. Transitory failures generally do not constitute a breach of this warranty. Courts have found that the breach must be so substantial as to amount to a constructive eviction. This means that the problem must be so bad that the tenant cannot continue to occupy the space and would have to leave unless the repairs were made. Recently, judges hearing habitability cases, (as they are known), have been leaning away from a strict interpretation of the case law and have been giving tenants credit in the form of rent abatements for claimed defects that ordinarily may be perceived as trivial.
continued……
http://www.njlawnet.com/njlawreview/landlordtenant101.html
#142,
Stop paying rent. That will get their attention! Also if your friend moves he should use the security deposit as the last month’s rent. If the LL wants to come after him (entirely possible) your friend will at least have no skin in the game at this point. Have your friend start sending certified letters to management and the LL documenting what he sees and asking for action. If/when the LL looks to recoup the rest of the rent through court action this documentation will be necessary to prove inaction on the part of the LL.
Even in a bankruptcy they would just kill the library, swiming, sports, park maint, street cleaning etc. to make life miserable to the people who live their while keeping cops, teacher salaries at their current high rates. You taxes would fall just a little and your home value would be wiped out.
As I read this it got me wondering whether school districts and towns might not seek the cover of Chapter 9 in order to get out from under some of these previously-agreed-to expenses.
There are two towns in California currently under Chapter 9 and there will be thousands to come in the next 4-5 years.
Kettle,
Housing is gonna crash regrdless but this will bring in additional pain I agree.
Inflation of food and energy and this dollar crisis will kill the pant up demand that bi is talking about. Assuming of course it’s real.
I can’t wait to join you in your bunker in Domenica.
“Maybe this summer I will buy more local grown fruits and veggies and skip the pineapples from Hawaii”
One of the many happy benefits of high oil prices. It’s not all bad.
101 shore
I misread you. That’s unquestionably right, and I think it’s an issue that will accelerate.
“But there again, why should Middle Eastern states help America as long as the White House keeps filling the US petroleum reserve to prepare for war with Iran? Bush is playing with fire, too.”
kettle,
Was the above from the article or did you add this?
Many are blasting Bush for adding to the SPR, at these levels. They are clamoring for releases.
NJ showed a gain??
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24596311
35 minutes ago
Home Prices: Glass Still Seems Half Empty
[snip]
The Realtors do the quarterly sales figures by state, and only 3 states showed positive figures in the first quarter of this year from a year ago: Alaska, Indiana and New Jersey.
[snip]
I’m still patiently waiting for the spreadsheets to be updated on the NAR site…
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-13-2008/0004812454&EDATE=
John 159
That is exactly why any town that goes down the chapter 9 road is likely to to be toast. Who will be willing to buy there after that? if you cant sell, then housing prices go down. it quite a nasty feedback loop
make money,
See you in dominica, the entry fee is reasonable, (guns food or alcohol) bring 1
Mahwah
SLD 122 SEMINARY DR $1,199,000 7/23/2001
2722100 Withdrawn 117 days
ACT 122 SEMINARY DR $1,899,999 6/1/2007
EXT 122 SEMINARY DR $1,899,999 8/28/2007
W-U 122 SEMINARY DR $1,899,999 9/25/2007
2739073 Withdrawn 24 days
ACT 122 SEMINARY DR $1,799,000 9/25/2007
W-U 122 SEMINARY DR $1,799,000 10/18/2007
2742495 Sold 207 days New broker/agent
ACT 122 SEMINARY DR $1,799,000 10/19/2007
PCH 122 SEMINARY DR $1,599,000 10/29/2007
PCH 122 SEMINARY DR $1,495,000 1/31/2008
EXT 122 SEMINARY DR $1,495,000 2/14/2008
EXT 122 SEMINARY DR $1,495,000 3/19/2008
PCH 122 SEMINARY DR $1,350,000 4/4/2008
ACT* 122 SEMINARY DR $1,350,000 4/18/2008
U/C 122 SEMINARY DR $1,350,000 4/21/2008
SLD 122 SEMINARY DR $1,250,000 5/12/2008
Dominica, What a great place. After Grenada, I think it is my favorite spot down inthe blue waters.
108 kettle
No – you misread me.
Property taxes will keep rising, but measuring them as a percentage of property value is misleading.
Say a given plot is currently taxed at $15K (whatever that is as a percentgage). I have no doubt that in 5 years that will be $20K (in today’s dollars). Whether the value of the underlying property rises or falls, the gov’t will set the percentage to get the amount of money it needs, thus arriving at $20K.
So my point is that a rise or fall in the value of the underlying property does not cause a change in the gross amount of tax that will be levied on that property. The gross amount will rise from level X to level Y (whatever amount the gov’t decides it needs) regardless of the value of the property.
109 clot
For THAT, I’d be willing to toss in a couple extra dollars in taxes…
thanks for all your feedback. I’ll pass on the info.
He did say the prop mgt has been trying to get rid of the little bastards but it’s not helping. What wold you say is a “reasonable” amount of time to give Mgt/LL to fix the problem?
119 Shore
“What are the odds that any of this goes to pay down existing debt?”
0
This has been another episode of “Simple Answers to Simple Questions.”
#169 Rich: Dare we say back just about at 2001 prices.
123 grim
per Yun – it’s a change in the mix!!! Doesn’t count!!!!! Do-over!!!!
# 174
Cynic. Oh, wait, no, just someone who has lived in NJ for awhile.
#153 Thanks Rich!
And, Thank God.
133 Shore
Don’t be ridiculous. It might be Syria instead.
133 Shore
Also, the election is in November, so invading then would be stupid. The invasion will be in October.
#173,
“Reasonable” is all relative. Think of it this way, what would it take to convince a judge in superior court that you gave a “reasonable” amount of time? That is the person who will be making the decision if/when the LL sues for the rest of the lease term $$.
3b Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 10:49 am
#118 shore: I am curious as to just where this additional found revenue is coming from.
3B: My guesses?
1. Withdrawals from 401(k) and IRAs.
2. Capital gains on sales of homes, stocks etc. for purposes of liquidity.
3. Large payments for severance.
Average/median sale price do nto matter. Biggest drops so far in NJ were in upscale – for me at least 600K+ segment. Houses dropping from 600K+ to 400K+ . That make some of thouse good buy. Hoever only more expensive upper level housing is moving and as a result overall averaghe price will raise – for example if:
2006 – 6 homes for 300K sold, 6 homes for 500K and 5 homes for 850K.
AVERAGE price = 532K, median = 500K.
2008
2 homes for 300K sold, 3 homes for 500K sold, and 4 homes for 700K sold.
AVERAGE price = 544K, median = 500K.
Here you go, sales declined, priced declined but average sale price rose by 12K!!!!
94: Not for nuthin’, but have you looked at the price of a pie from your local pizzeria?
My preferred slice palace, The Brick Oven (on the scenic Leonia Pal. Park border) twice has raised their prices in the past year–a total of 50% over the mid-2007 price. Still outstanding pizza, though. Just no longer a cheap treat for four.
No wonder the big chains are doing gangbusters business with their $15/3 pies deal. Too bad it’s manifestly awful pizza….
Regionally, the median existing single-family home price in the Northeast rose 3.2 percent to $280,000 in the first quarter from the same
period in 2007.
The Realtors do the quarterly sales figures by state, and only 3 states showed positive figures in the first quarter of this year from a year ago: Alaska, Indiana and New Jersey.
I know, things are going to get ugly, right?
137 3B
“I am amaazed at the amount of resumes I see, from young college grads, who have never, ever, worked a single day in their life in any capacity.”
Now this is true. I see the same on resumes of law school grads. Somehow they made it through undergrad at Swarthmore and law school at Harvard and never managed to do an honest day’s labor.
And the summer spent building houses in Kenya doesn’t count.
Note…..not repeatable…a head fake for the stupid bureaucrats….
138 john
All of that was kinda what I was saying, except I said it more lazily.
98: But it has a dock, where he can fish for compliments …
# 181
I understand – I was more or less looking to see if anyone had a similar experience with tenant/LL, and if any time frames were stated in judgment that constituted “reasonableness”.
# 180 I don’t think so. If there is an invasion or other action taken against Iran before the election, it all but guarantees a Democratic victory. If it happens after the election, regardless of who wins, it forces the next president to press forward with this Administration’s policies. I hope that I am wrong, but I know these people and they scare me.
140 jill
“standard anti-boomer cliches here.”
I think we’re pretty equal-opportunity in our generation-blaming here.
# 98 It is modest, actually. At least compared to our friends and associates. And, frankly, with respect to many other residents in our town. I have said before that we are in the upper reaches of income in our town (I believe top 1%, but live in a median-priced home). As we see it, the house is a place to entertain, sleep, rear the children, cook, etc, it is NOT our self image nor is it our self-worth. It is a structure used for accomplishing certain life activities and, with any luck, one which will not lose money over the long term.
SS 142
I’m not a tenant lawyer (although I am a tenant and a lawyer) – I’d go with kettle’s advice at 157 (i.e., document attempts to get landlord help (and let the landlord KNOW that you’re documenting those attempts)) and then you can withhold, but DO consult a lawyer (I mean a qualified one, unlike me (although call me if you have an issue with your stock options)).
Speaking of Iran. Is this the first shot?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24585635
Crude Jumps Above $126 As Iran Weighs Output Cut
By Reuters | 13 May 2008 | 11:40 AM ET Font size: The price of oil jumped above $126 a barrel in volatile trading Tuesday, within striking distance of record highs, as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said a proposal to reduce the country’s crude output was being reviewed by experts, the semi-official Fars News Agency reported on Tuesday.
[snip]
FYI:
Bergen County Q1 median price was flat compared to 2007 (2007 was down 6.2% from 2006).
Sales were down 32.4% and pending sales were down 32.9% compared to last year.
We’re not quite 1/2 way through Q2, median price is currently down 8.3% compared to last year (2007 was down 0.6% from 2006).
SS Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Question for all the landlords out there.
I have a friend who is currently 4.5 months into a one year lease. He’s having a problem with pests (roaches) that are not originating from his apartment but are coming in from somewhere. He has contacted the property manager and landlord but never gets a response. If this problem can not be rectified does he have the ability to terminate the lease early without losing his security deposit?
Certified letter stating that landlord is in violation of NJ rental law –
http://www.lsnjlaw.org/english/placeilive/irentmyhome/tenantsrights/index.cfm
chapter 6: e warranty of habitability
Landlords have a duty under New Jersey landlord-tenant law to maintain their rental property in a safe and decent condition. This duty applies to all leases, whether written or oral. The duty to keep rental units safe and decent is called the warranty of habitability. The warranty of habitability is based upon common sense: in return for paying rent to the landlord, the landlord must make sure that the housing is fit to be occupied by the tenant.
The warranty of habitability has been held to include keeping the basic elements of your housing unit in good condition. This includes taking care of physical elements, such as the roof, windows, walls, etc.; the systems that supply your heat, hot and cold water, and electricity and gas; appliances, such as the stove, refrigerator, and dishwasher; keeping apartments pest-free and common areas clean; and providing security against crime, such as locks on doors and windows to deter break-ins.
Ned to sand a CERTIFIED LETTER to manager stating the roach problem and that he is giving them “reasonable time” to respond. After that he willwithdraw rent and/or either pay for exterminator himself from that withdrawn rent or move-out as landlord is in clear violation of the law.
The key – you have to have papper trail!!!
Better yet have a lawyer sertify it – for 40$.
# 142 et. al
When it comes to documentation, sending the letters via registered mail will not only help you later on but it will send a strong message to the LL.
Again I am truly amazed young people 22, 23, 24 years old who have never, ever been employed.
I’m hiring these guys as first-time jobs.
As for the pizza comments: My father 1/2 owns a place. In the last year flour has gone up for 15 bucks a bag to over 80 bucks a bag. Cheese has tripled in price. Everything that is used for pizza making has gone through the roof.
In the 25+ years the place has been open, there has NEVER been a problem paying the bills… and now it is starting to get tight.
#185 gary: Do you necessarily believe that to be true?
To clarify my post in 199, I’m hiring “kids” of the age of 22, 23, 24 and 25 who have never had a real job. Their resumes are blank or they just have some bartending gig from college with zero real world experience.
I’m only 28 and it blows my mind. I’ve got 8+ years of professional experience and at least 4 years of crappy labor/waiter experience.
Shore 195
the answer is no. The main factor sin play are the devaluation of the dollar and supply/demand. these factor make it more sensible to keep some oil in the ground instead of maxing production
Saudi Arabia has made similar comments to Iran
On April 13, Reuters reported the following from Riyadh:
Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world’s top exporter for future generations…
“When there were some new finds, I told them, ‘no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it’,” King Abdullah said…
Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.
#210 That is why you will/are doing well, and the others will be crushed.
At least soem of yours have had the bar tending gig. I am talking about no job period. Nothing, not even in the summer. Any job no amtter how crappy is real world experience, and it teaches the value of a buck, not to emntion the the ability to arrive on time, and complete the required tasks.
#185 gary: See 196 (Rich)
# 189
No compliments needed here, Jamey. I couldn’t care less what anyone other than my wife thinks about our house, our cars, our clothing, etc.
191 shore
I was being sarcastic. I agree with you, and they scare me too. I remember telling my folks, in March of 2002, that the probability of an Iraq invasion was 100%. I found it absolutely shocking that the print and TV pundits either didn’t realize this or, worse, pretended not to.
195 shore
“Senate votes 97-1 to force President Bush to stop adding to Strategic Petroleum Reserve – Dow Jones reports. More soon.”
Re 193 you have a HUGE House. Do you know your have way exceeded your carbon footprint. I think if everyone on earth had a one acre house we would need something like 5 planet earths to hold them all. I myself would like a one acre 3,000 house myself. But that would require at least a 600K a year income to suport.
#182 chgo: If truen than that is a very neagative sign. Not how a state should be generating revenues. And you certainly would not be growing your economy.
#34 “Home Prices: from the peak in 2006, home prices will decline to pre-1999 levels.”
Does it not always go back to 1950’s prices ,inflation – adjusted?According to Schiller.Inflation got along way to go up.
CNBC and Bloomberg silence on AIG is defeaning.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23692590-36375,00.html
3b [200],
I’m getting listings daily that I view for about 5 seconds and close them because it might as well be 2005 and I can’t be bothered. That’s why I laugh when I see references to 2001 or 1999 prices. For the mid level homes that appear to be kept well and are in decent towns, the prices are still at least 20% too high. So yeah, I think it is true.
202 ket
I agree with all that, but I also have an ear open to the folks who contend that the Bush middle east policy is one of laying the groundwork for coming oil wars.
There’s my bit of apocalyptic theory for the day.
# 208
I will agree that we have a home that is bigger than many people have. My point is neither to point out how much we have nor to say we are suffering at all, as, clearly, we are not. The thing that amazes me, and has for some years now, is how many people there are, who are not doing as well as we are, who have spent more on cars, on houses, and gadgets than we have. Even given our relative comfort, and lack of any debt, we found prices out of control; how in the heck did some couple earning $150,000 a year or even less think that everything was ducky?
#214 Shore Guy:
“Even given our relative comfort, and lack of any debt, we found prices out of control; how in the heck did some couple earning $150,000 a year or even less think that everything was ducky?”
Ditto!
Most (if not all) of my peers drive fancier cars, wear fancier clothes, frown upon our coupon use and owe more on their houses than they originally purchased them for. They also all have 2 or 3 kids, to my 1 (and done). I ponder how they are all going to get out of these holes they have dug themselves into?
“Senate votes 97-1 to force President Bush to stop adding to Strategic Petroleum Reserve – Dow Jones reports. More soon.”
patient [207],
Kay Bailey Hutchison is leading the effort to stop adding to our SPR. Currently, we have approx 700 million barrels in reserve. With oil prices at record levels, it seems odd that we continue to add approx 70 thousand barrels daily. Are we market timers, speculating on increasing prices or is there some ulterior motive?
Stu (215) – By tugging at our walletts ans pocket books, of course.
Anybody here a duffer? I’d heard golf was on the downswing generally, but developments are still being planned. Is this a hidden area of growth in RE demand?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/06/iraq
216 BC
“Are we market timers, speculating on increasing prices or is there some ulterior motive?”
Which gets us back to Shore’s point…
#212 gary:So yeah, I think it is true.
Perhaps for now, but the trend is down.
Look at the information that Rich @196 posted for prestigious Bergen county.
Clot,
Any update from the mortgage world? Thanks.
Median sales price of existing single-family homes for metropolitan areas, annual change 1Q08 compared to 1Q07
Atlantic City +4.8%
Edison -0.6%
Newark-Union -3.4%
Trenton-Ewing +1.6%
New York-Wayne-White Plains -5.7% (New Jersey component of this metro area is small)
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington -0.7% (New Jersey component of this metro area is small)
http://www.realtor.org/ro/research/SFMetro051308.pdf
Thanks Pre
Condo & co-op prices flat or up slightly in all of these areas (no data for Atlantic City though)
http://www.realtor.org/ro/research/CDMetro051308.pdf
Grim’s blog mentioned in another NJ blog
http://www.jerseysmarts.com/2008/05/07/renting-vs-owning-a-home/
# 215 How will they get out? A governmentbailout, perhaps?
The same observations apply to the federal budget. We MUST get things in shape or we are all going to suffer a fate like the solvent folks in those condos where people stop paying the fees. Those of us who can pay will get hammered.
# 197 – Good advice (as well as everyone else). Thank you. I have passed this on.
From the Star Ledger:
State officials push to sock away $533M unexpected windfall
The state treasurer today acknowledged New Jersey has realized an unexpected financial windfall but said the state should sock away the extra cash instead of spending it all now to ease the pain of looming budget cuts.
“As the governor has said since February, we are at a turning point,”” state Treasurer David Rousseau told the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee. “”The time has come for us, together, to say:” no more.”
During an update on the state”s budget outlook, Rousseau said the Corzine administration expects $533 million more in revenue for the current budget year than it anticipated in February.
Most of the windfall comes from the income tax and corporate taxes. He said the administration wants to put that money in a fund that would mainly be used for debt reduction.
Rousseau emphasized the state continues to have serious budget problems despite the windfall, which was based on last year”s tax returns when the economy still was thriving.
That isn”t the case now, and Rousseau said he expects revenues in the budget year that begins July 1 to be $159 million lower than anticipated.
New Jersey continues to outperform other parts of the New York metro.
Single family homes:
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk -6.7%
New Haven-Milford -9.5%
Nassau-Suffolk -3.5%
Condos:
New Haven-Milford -8.7%
Nassau-Suffolk +0.6%
(non date for Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk)
When Janet is yellin’, you better be sellin’!
From MarketWatch:
Grim trio of house bubble, oil, credit bedevils U.S.: Yellen
House prices and home building to drop well into ’09: Yellen
Yellen doubts speculators behind commodity price rise
9th inning? Are they talking about opening day?
May 12 (Bloomberg) — U.S. and European banks and financial institutions have “enormous losses” from bad loans they haven’t yet recognized and may have a harder time wooing sovereign-fund rescuers, Carlyle Group Chairman David Rubenstein said.
“Based on information I see,” it will take at least a year before all losses are realized, and some financial institutions may fail, Rubenstein said at a breakfast meeting of the Institute for Education Public Policy Roundtable in Washington. He didn’t name any companies.”
“Rubenstein said sovereign wealth funds are becoming wary after losing $25 billion on their investments in struggling banks and securities firms worldwide.”
“The truth is, we’re in some kind of economic slowdown,” Rubenstein said. “I don’t think it’s going to be over for quite a while.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aozdYkg4RG3A
NJ components of the MSA/MSADs listed above
Atlantic City, NJ Metropolitan Statistical Area
Atlantic County
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ Metropolitan Division
Bergen County
Hudson County
Passaic County
Edison, NJ Metropolitan Division
Middlesex County
Monmouth County
Ocean County
Somerset County
Newark-Union, NJ-PA Metropolitan Division
Essex County
Hunterdon County
Morris County
Sussex County
Union County
“House prices and home building to drop well into ‘09: Yellen”
I’m hoping that soon, when I say I’m buying in winter of ’09/’10, folks will no longer look at me with a pitying expression at how lamely stupid I am. All the folks who have finally admitted that they were wrong about the bubble somehow are still confident that their RE instincts are sound.
“New York-Wayne-White Plains -5.7% (New Jersey component of this metro area is small)”
This includes Manhattan, no?
BC Bob
“9th inning? Are they talking about opening day?”
What would Ernie Banks say?
This includes Manhattan, no?
Yessir, as well as Westchester.
Njpatient,
Not really. It is for single family homes. Manhattan doesn’t have many of these.
The condo & co-op figure is a better way to assess Manhattan home prices. The condo & co-op figure for New York-Wayne-White Plains was +1.8%.
Some good old info on COAH
http://www.nhi.org/online/issues/134/mtlaurel.html
Re: Landlord Tenant Issues
Here’s a publication put out by the DCA on tenant’s rights:
http://www.lsnjlaw.org/english/placeilive/irentmyhome/tenantsrights/
The person who wants to withold rent should check chapter 6.
BTW why is a war with IRAN a bad thing?
#233 njpatient:somehow are still confident that their RE instincts are sound.
It is all they have left.
Does anyone have info on the RE market in Essex County? Specifically, I’m interested in Nutley, Bloomfield, and Belleville. From what I’m seeing, prices seem to be holding steady. I’m curious if this is reflected in the actual numbers.
“This includes Manhattan, no?
Yessir, as well as Westchester.”
Poor Wayne, being dragged down by such slummery.
105. Clotpoll Says:
Many stores & fast food places minivan their employees from Newark, Union, etc.
Hey! Us here in Elizabeth consider Union one of the nicer” towns.
184. Jamey Says:
94: Not for nuthin’, but have you looked at the price of a pie from your local pizzeria?
Yup! One day it was $10, then next was $13!
241 3b
yep – that seems to the the way with modern punditry: those who are horribly wrong about important issues don’t get sent to the woodshed; instead they get a permanent gig on the NYTimes op-ed page, or they get named financial adviser to a presidential candidate.
Failing upward has become a very American thing to do.
237 pre
“Not really. It is for single family homes. Manhattan doesn’t have many of these.”
good point, thanks. Do you know how a brownstone owned by a single family is categorized?
“Do you know how a brownstone owned by a single family is categorized?”
Yes. The NAR definition counts that as a single-family home.
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/13/84/
hat tip to Mr. Mortgage
“Yes. The NAR definition counts that as a single-family home.”
So some, though not many. That means the SFH number must be heavier on White Plains/Wayne, so more emphasis on NJ in the -5.7% number rather than less.
#246 njpatient: So true. Just look at Jimmy Cayne.
He presides over the melt down of Bear,and yet has entertained offers to join hedge funds and or various advisory positions.
240 john
because it would be incredibly expensive, very deadly, and useless.
Otherwise it would be fine.
250 3b
Nice weather we’re having.
War with Iran would be a bad thing for many reasons.
1 – Our military is badly stretched.
2 – Iran is ethnically homogenous. Both Iraq and Afghanistan are artifical entities offering plenty of opportunity to play one group off against the other. Even though Gen X and Y Iranians have no love for the theocracy, they will rally to defend their homeland and their people.
3 – Iran’s military can probably get in a few shots before melting into an insurgency. Losing a few fighter jets or a destroyer in the Gulf will look very bad on CNN.
I could continue, but then I’d worry about becoming too much like Kettle.
Well 99 cent gas would be sweet. All we need is a new law that all US debt owed to any oil producting middle eastern country is now worthless and that should take care of it. We should have attacked Iran after 9/11 and skipped broke Iraq and Afganistan. It we are going to war just to blame 9/11 on someone we might as well have picked a rich country.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90328243
Soros: Financial Crisis Stems from ‘Super-Bubble’
Njpatient,
“That means the SFH number must be heavier on White Plains/Wayne, so more emphasis on NJ in the -5.7% number rather than less.”
Only 17% of the population of New York-Wayne-White Plains metro area lives in New Jersey. Maybe New Jersey’s share of single family homes is slightly higher than that, say 20%, but the -5.7% is driven by what is happening in New York City and its northern suburbs. Rockland and Putnam are included in this area too.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/10/AR2008051000189.html
Let’s Make It Cool to Save
253, I agree however my thoughts were not really worried about the ethic homogenous background of Iran or their love of theocracy. I just thought it would be nice to kill them and get their oil. Plus we get to send them all off to be with their 40 virgins and a life of riches in the afterlife. Kind of a win/win.
#253 I would add, that the American people would not tolerate it. Not after the disaster of (Iraq and Afghanistan.
Of course if we did this we would need some company and we would of course ask the Brits to join us.
They of course would howl bloody murder (part of the reason Blair was done in was the Iraq fiasco).
And if you think the Iranians do not like Americans, they absolutely despise the English for historical reasons and all of that.
Are the boroughs of NY included? That will have a lof of SFH.
253 jmac
We’d also make Russia an instant full ally of Iran (to the extent that we haven’t already).
254 john
Who’s going to extract oil from a country torn by guerilla warfare? That hasn’t worked too well in Iraq, if you recall.
NNJ – yes.
New York-Wayne-White Plains is comprised of the following counties:
New York
Kings
Queens
Bronx
Richmond
Westchester
Putnam
Rockland
Hudson
Bergen
Passaic
Thanks pretorius, I had to look up Richmond (SI).
There is a S/L home in Bergen county that has 3/2 baths for $430, this home requires extensive work to get it up to the shape you would like (120k+ of upgrades (baths, kitchen, etc). The home next door sold for 289k in 1997. The homes are appoximately the same. Cant tell the condition of the $289 home but you can see that the $289k home has a deck and the $289 home doesnt seem to be in such great shape either. Is the a 430k price resonable? Opinions appreciated.
258
In the context of all of eternity, 40 virgins (or 72 or whatever it is) really doesn’t seem to be a sufficient quantity. I’m not sure they’ve really thought this through.
#253 Iraq and Afghanistan are artifical creations. Iran while being more ethnically homogenous, does have a sizeable Arab minority in the south of the country.
And of course the Kurds in the north. And strip away the Islam,and the Persians and Arabs despise each otehr, and of course they both despise the Kurds.
Most concepts of heaven and hell have not been thought through.
John – Plus we get to send them all off to be with their 40 virgins and a life of riches in the afterlife. Kind of a win/win.
Funniest thing I heard in a while…
Justified anihilation of a country.
pret
“but the -5.7% is driven by what is happening in New York City and its northern suburbs.”
We’ve already agreed fewer SFH in Manhattan, and the same would be true of the Bronx and Brooklyn and parts of Queens. So that leaves SI, parts of Queens, and the northern ‘burbs in addition to Jersey. I suppose that we could imagine ourselves to be talking about 10% drops in Westchester and SI, with the Jersey portion being just fine, but that’s not sustainable. Why live in Alpine when you could live in Scarsdale at half the price?
Listen to Presentation from
Kevin Walsh, Fair Share Housing Center
On the property tax issue. For most towns, the assessed value and the sale value are very different. In my BC town, the assessed value of recent sales (not that there were many) was around 60%. Towns like Glen Ridge will be interesting after the reval. I looked at a house with a $9K assessed value. The town tax multiplier was around 47 if I recall. I’m sure someone here can correct the figures.
So if house values fall in a lot of cases they will just fall back to the assessed value.
Jaw (221)-
Change in the mortgage world?
Is there a state of existence beyond completely seized up?
If so, I don’t want to experience it.
Although, the Countryfried office near me is getting shut down.
Now, there’s something to cheer about!
#269 njpatient: Anectodal of course. But I have been told by friends and family members that live in Dutchess, Orange, and, Putnam Counties, that prices there have dropped substanially, and are continuing to drop.
Why commute from all the way up there if prices closer in to the job areas are dropping.
Not to mention that the taxes in Putnam/Dutchess are quite ugly.
Njpatient,
We’ll never know the exact breakdown.
My guess is the exurban areas (Putnam, Rockland, northern Westchester, northern Passaic) did the worse. Central areas (Manhattan, Hoboken, northwest Brooklyn) were did better.
This conforms with one of the conclusions in the “Driven to the Brink” report that grim posted at the top of this page – “within metropolitan areas, it appears that markets on the suburban fringe are generally experiencing the greatest declines, and consumer demand remains relatively stronger for close-in properties.”
However, the guys who wrote that report do overstate the impact of gas prices.
Compared to most of NYC, LI & Westchester…I think NJ is still a bargain.
John,
what would our goal in invading/attacking Iran? In what manner have they offered a credible threat to the safety and integrity of the USA?
Grim – moderation at 278. I’m willing to bet Br1tney Spe*ars caused it.
275 pret
I agree with all of that.
#269 njpatient: As far as the Bronx. In teh old ethnic enclaves (Woodlawn, City Island, River Dale, Throggs Neck), you are now seeing for sale signs on houses, which never was the case before, as houses sold in most instances went under the table.
In the old areas that turned from blue collar white ethnic, to minority (my old neighborhood) there are foreclosure notices on many of the houses.
I was back there a couple of months back for a funeral, (some of the old timers stayed), and a few of us did a walking tour around the old neighborhood.Forclosure notices, boarded up homes. Very sad.
Njpatient,
We’ll never know the exact breakdown.
My guess is exurban areas (Putnam, Rockland, northern Westchester, northern Passaic) did worse. Central areas (Manhattan, Hoboken, northwest Brooklyn) were did better.
This matches one of the conclusions in the “Driven to the Brink” report that grim posted at the top of this page. The “within metropolitan areas, it appears that markets on the suburban fringe are generally experiencing the greatest declines, and consumer demand remains relatively stronger for close-in properties.”
However, the guys who wrote that report overstate the impact of gas prices. The separation between exurbs and central areas has more to do with land economics and commute times.
Land goes up in value. Buildings go down in value. That’s bad news for the guy who owns a McMansion built on cheap land far from the central city. It is good for the kid who stretched to buy a small condo in a successful city.
John do you realize that iran offered to assist us in afghanistan after 9/11 and did provide some covert aid when we invaded?
ok, done feeding the troll for the day!
Grim, could you delete #275?
It was a draft of post #281.
#275 pret:and consumer demand remains relatively stronger for close-in properties.”
And yet the term relative, is just that relative.
If the demand was that strong, then why all the inventory sitting in many of these close-in areas.
To get back to a normal supply demand balance, prices are going to have to continue to fall, even in the close-in areas.
283 pret
I now agree with all of 281 except to the extent that the last paragraph, which is otherwise correct, may be intended to imply that the successful city is immune to the effects of an RE bubble, which isn’t correct.
Re: Who’s going to extract oil from a country torn by guerilla warfare? That hasn’t worked too well in Iraq, if you recall.
Neutron Bomb, will kill all the people and leave buildings and oil unharmed. However, radioactive clouds will blow around for awhile so anything within 500 hundred miles of their may suffer collatral damage, not that is really that much their anyhow to save. US Workers can then extract oil via pipelines running across desert. Pakistan might get mad as us to so might as well chuck a bomb there way too. But don’t worry our friends in Israel once we give them a cut of the oil profits will nominate old George Bush for the nobel peace prize.
#285 NJpatient: And aside from all of this we still have the latest real estate report from Mr. Otteau for our beloved NJ, in which he says that prices are falling wnd will continue to fall.
Bob T’s past 5 quarterly report cards.
https://live.lehman.com/public/RDS/3C6C0F7D-0D56-4FBB-A799-9AB717FAC2BF/17609.html
John (286)-
Wow. In one single post, you managed to be:
1. Megalomaniacal
2. Anti-Persian
3. Anti-Semitic
4. Anti-Arabic
5. Sociopathic
Of course, none of the radiation from your neutron bomb would ever get blown this way…
NNJ – NJ is a relative value compared to places in LI & Westchester. Some of my friends look at NJ as a goiter of a state. I look at it and see more sensible housing prices relative to the commute. Anyone care to throw out a relative value comparison?
I would say Roslyn is on par with Millburn. A 750k house in Millburn is probably close to $900k in Roslyn and taxes are 30% more as well.
OFF TOPIC QUESTION
if an oil tank is ‘decommisioned’ does that mean there is no risk of future contamination? i.e if I soil testing is done post decommisioning?
Thanks
290. Correct.
LI prices and taxes are usually higher than NJ. Westchester prices are much higher. And finally if you live in NYC, you get to pay upto 4% city income tax. Relatively, NJ is a bargain.
BC, Chifi, 3b,
Iran holds about 500 billion in US dollar reserves. is that enough to cause serious damage to the US dollar index if they dumped all their dollars at once?
john,
you might want to read alittle on how a real neutronbomb works before suggesting we use it. it doesnt work like you think it does.
#292 NNJ: Perhaps. But not the bargain it used to be. As far as prices at least Westchester to Bergen, I believe they are comprable.
I resent the Anti-Semitic comment, afterall the neutron bomb was invented by Samuel Cohen. In fact the decommissioning on the bomb was in fact Anti-Semitic.
Plus Jack Welch is a big fan of it, the former CEO of General Electric, was nicknamed Neutron Jack for his management style, which wipes out his employees (out of the company) while leaving the company structure intact.
During his 1977 lecture at the University of Colorado at Boulder, Hunter S. Thompson was asked his opinion of the neutron bomb. He responded that it’s an ideal representation of capitalism at the time — a bomb that destroys tissue but not property.
Additionally, the proof the bomb works can be seen in The Simpsons episode “Treehouse of Horror VIII”, France uses a 6-megaton neutron bomb to wipe out Springfield, leaving the town intact but its residents turned to charred skeletons in their places.
i think john is actually dick cheney
#294 kettle is that enough to cause serious damage to the US dollar index if they dumped all their dollars at once?
I would say so, and Mr. Ahaminjead (not sure of the spelling, appears to be just unhinged enough to do that. Although it could be a lot of empty rhetoric as well.
Away from all that the problem is Americans do not understand that part of the world, and probably never will.
Just look at how quickly the British and French went packing from that area of the world.
Even McCain did not know the difference between Shite and Sunni. I am by no means saying we should agree with them, or coddle them. But we should at least understand them.
John,
The 50’s and 60’s era of “love thy bomb” are long over. If we are ever going to eradicate an entire nation we best do it the old fashioned way, by hand. We would face much less of a political backlash this way anyway. Nuking a place is so post WWII. Kind of like that big Sable in the driveway, a ode to ages past.
The whole reason we are getting pasted in Iraq is precisely because we did not kill everyone (Vikings, Mongol hordes, etc) as we made it through villages on our way to Baghdad. This is also what sets us apart from them.
Do you want to be a fat and rich murderer of women and children or slightly beat up idealist? I’ll take the latter thank you.
3b – NNJ as a bargain…
There still is no defense for the state’s and local gov’t misuse of our tax dollars. In LI and Westchester I’m surprised there are no taxpayer revolts. The taxes they pay relative to what they get back is insane. I have a friend who is Nassau County police and he’s getting a six figure income before OT. He put in his time in NYC as a cop and swithced over to Nassau after five or six years. He also did the Jones Beach patrol during the summer. Tough job… “Excuse miss, you may want to add a little more sunscreen. Want some help with that?”
kettle [293],
If any country unloaded $500B at once, it would have adverse affects. The dollar would get hammered, treasury rates would react accordingly and there would be spillover into the stock market. I would imagine if anybody was dumping, it would be over a period of time.
“For instance, on November 7, 2007, a report, that was later repudiated, asserted that Chinese officials were considering shifting some of China’s foreign currency reserves, reportedly worth $1.4 trillion, in dollars and in such dollar-denominated assets as Treasury securities, out of dollar-denominated securities. Acting on the report, investors sold securities and the dollar. As a result, the broad Dow Jones industrial average plunged 360 points in one day and the dollar sank against other major currencies. In response to the fall in the exchange value of the dollar, indexes of equities markets in Europe and Japan also fell.”
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL34319.pdf
effects.
If NYers were to look past their bias against NJ, they will realize how badly they are getting shafted.
Ridgewood
SLD 47 JOHN ST $795,000 6/30/2006
2819679
ACT 47 JOHN ST $769,000 5/13/2008
Not sold, Active
Iran holds about 500 billion in US dollar reserves. is that enough to cause serious damage to the US dollar index if they dumped all their dollars at once?
That’s a start. Who will follow? We have plenty of enemies. In addition, some central banks could panic and start dumping to get the most value in return. When that happens will Asia fund our two billion a day deficit?
Actually, my plan includes any currency held in overseas accounts will be deemed legally worthless.
I agree that New Jersey is a better deal than New York. That’s why I live here.
I save a couple hundred a month on a mortgage payment, maybe a hundred a month on real estate tax, and pay a couple thousand less in closing costs. But I don’t expect the price of my place to grow faster than a a comparable place in New York. The New Jersey discount that existed when I bought my place will still be there when I sell it.
Clot,
My question was prompted by the 10 yr yield at 3.91%. Just wanted to see how the mortgage industry was reacting to this news. But I hadn’t realized that the markets had already completely seized up. Thanks.
#303 NNJ: We are getting shafted just as badly in NJ.
307, yes the Jersey discount might always stay. However, we have access to the same NYC compensation thus a higher disposable income.
309, yes, but not as badly as NYers.
Ok I give up, lets not invade Iran, but don’t blame me if you go visit your grandchildren one day and they are wearing their diapers on their heads.
My neighbor who just retired as a Nassau County cop had such a cushy job. He worked three 12 hour shifts a week with six weeks vacation and 12+ vacation days and made over a 100K a year. He worked less than 150 days a year. Even crazier since he put his uniform on at home the union claimed he was at work the moment he pulled out of his driveway and was at work til the moment he pulled into his driveway. He retired at 43 with a 60K pension for life with free medical. He worked the day shift three days a week. Left work at 7am and got home at 7pm.
#3, do not ask for who the bell tolls…
#300 Hardplace: Oh I agree, the police salaries are just insane. But the same thing exists as well in NJ.
The police chief in Rutherford, with a force of 20 officers makes more than the police commissioner of NYC.
However, any time there is any rumblings about police salaries, they and their families mount massive letter writing campaigns in defense of those salaries.
And one of my favorites which I see time and time again, is how would you like it if you had to work on Christmas.
And again for once I would like to see the police and their families admit that in the suburbs of NJ (as well as NY), they have a sweet deal.
The problem is they will not, and they demand more and more.
Ah, good ol’ Brigadoon.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/100000-condos-made-from-discarded.html
$100K condo project made our of Shipping Containers.
After they bring us goods and we have nothing to give them back besides IOU’s they don’t want the containers so we take them and solve our affordable housing issues.
Who got better then us. Free goods and free homes. I love this country.
FYI, NJ is more expensive than long island in the higher income tax brackets. Your top income tax rates are higher than NY. Plus car insurance is higher and homes appreciate less.
And again, get over the fact that you’re going to see price drops comparable to 1999 or 2000, it ain’t happening. You’ll see a little more weakness moving into the latter part of this year followed by a year or two of flat prices and that’s it. The bottom line is if you want a decent house, not a house where you feel like your compromising, then keep saving and increase your income. I’m convinced that’s the only way it’s going to happen.
It s*cks that we live in one of probably two areas in the country where prices and taxes are insane but that’s the way it is. For me personally, I thought last year is when we were gonna make a move. I was wrong. I’m still another year away… so be it. Stop the nonsense and get used to it. If you saved this long, another year of saving along with a year of stagnant prices can’t hurt but please, don’t think you’re gettting that house that was listed at 700K for 450K.
NJ Tax rates are higher only if you make more than $500k. (but NJ has less deductions). Comparable housing cost more on LI and property tax are higher. (as compared between Roslyn & Millburn earlier).
gefilta…#291 if a homeowner had a oil tank decommissioned weather in his cellar ,outside or in the ground ,if you are buying you should tell the seller he must pull the tank if he says no you should away from the contract . No insurance co would touch the home
State of Housing in Exburbs.
Spart NJ MLS 2495388 Asking $319,410
Taxes: $7,771
Almost 8K taxes for 300K house. Unbelievable.
317, you are probably right. But, prices and taxes are insane partly because incomes are insane. People who sell their place in NJ, buy home for cash down south, find themselves priced out of this market and unable to move back.
#313 -3b
Haha, I LOL’ed at the part about having to work on Christmas. People really play this card?!?
Plenty of workers get “stuck” with working on Christmas or other holidays and don’t get paid 6-figure salaries for it… Gas station attendants, grocery clerks, nurses, newspaper reporters and editors…
If you don’t like it, you get a different job, not whine about how you “deserve” better pay.
(I worked in one of the aforementioned jobs for years – every night, every weekend, every holiday. 6 figures?! LOL)
The truth of the matter is that if you have to work on Christmas, and that’s how you make ends meet, your family understands. You suck it up and celebrate on a different day. Or, again, change jobs.
Why is taxes of 8K on a 300K house high? A young family with two kids in the school district will use close to 40K in services each year.
#322 MovinB People really play this card?!?
Every time.
# 323 Indeed. $8,000 did not strike me as high. The real question may be whether $8,000 is high for a house of certain features, but that goes to the price of housing itself, which most of us agree is out of control in Jersey.
#323 A young family with two kids in the school district will use close to 40K in services each year.
So are you advocating that they should pay 40K a year in taxes?
John Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Why is taxes of 8K on a 300K house high? A young family with two kids in the school district will use close to 40K in services each year.
A young couple of two working adults will also pay over 15K/year state taxes, 7% sales tax, federal tax and real etstate tax.
In NJ 8000/year is not a lot…
When I tell htis to people outsedi of NJ they are SHOCKED.
John you are jealous – get couple of kids so you can use a system as well.
your kids will pay for your medicare and SS. And for good life you are having now (at some point US national debt will have to be paid – either by paying it off or defaulting I guess.)
Time for a BlackBerry friendly new thread, perhaps?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajW2LgcbYw2o&refer=worldwide
housing prices tumble in 2?3 of US cities
My house is a POS cape on a 50 X 100 lot with taxes of $8200 per year. They go up approximately 7% per year. They will NOT go down anywhere in NJ regardless of what house prices do.
329 Tumble, you say that like it is a BAD thing. Tumbling is a form of gymnastics. Gymnastics is a form of exercise. So, housing in those towns isnt “suffering” it is out exercising.
#317 gary: Prices fell before dramatically, they will and are falling again;there is no reason why they will not.
The fundamentals did not support the huge increase in prices, and I think it is as simpel as that.
And just as they went up too high, they will probably over shoot on the way down.
Just because many sellers still need to learn that lesson does not mean it is not true.
And if as you say this is just the way it is, then why are we seeing so much inventory,w here is the demand?
If people were resigend to having to pay these prices, then there would not be these dramtaic falls in sales.
I am not concerned about the one that sells, I am mucg more concerend about the 10 that are not selling. That is the indicator of the market for me.
#327, are they also shocked when they hear income levels in NJ area?
We’re budgeting $8k/year for a house in Haughtyville, BC, sometime in the next year or two. $8k seems about average for our price range, especially for a decent school system.
Coming from CA, with property taxes at less than half that amount, it’s actually NOT shocking. NJ public schools are comparatively way better, so we’re getting what we pay for if we decide to have little MovinBs. And bonus is that we get more house for our money in NJ.
See, even NJ is a bargain compared to some places.
Al I have two kids in the school district at 15K a kid and I pay a little over 8k in taxes. I am taking 30K out and putting 8K in so who am I to complain about property taxes. The real issue is my kids are no longer tax deductions and I can’t write off my RE taxes or my State income taxes. AMT is a lot bigger concern then the stupid 8k in RE taxes.
Right now SS is not a big deal to me. It is a big deal to dual income couples as both pay in and only one gets to collect.
We will all be in AMT soon as it is not indexed. Inflation is heating up and AMT is not adjusted for inflation.
When RE does hit me I would like to trade up houses and paying 20K a year in taxes is insane and even more insane is doing it when it is not tax deductable. That young couple paying 8K is actually only paying 5K as they can write it off on their taxes. Those upper saddle river houses with 25K in taxes that ain’t even tax deductable as you need an AMT sized income to pay the taxes. income
#317 gary: One final thought. As far as prices I believe they will fall back to 01 levels.
bad news from BoA,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQTRWXbtmidA&refer=home
Anybody have a URL for a simple explanation of AMT (other than wikipedia)? thanks…
I assume Heritage or Cato have good ones, as may Brookings.
#310 NNJ: Except we cannot always be the step chilld for NYC looking for NYC to create jobs for our residents.
NJ is not creating enough well paying jobs to support our population.
Are you advoacting that all NJ people who work should work in NYC? Because NYC also has people from Westchester, Rockland, Long Island, Putnam and Dutchess who work in NYC.
NJ has to do better than the typical realtor spiel that we are close to NYC.
#333 NNJ: Here is a bit of a shocker for you. 70% of households in prestigious Bergen County make under 100k a year.
Why is taxes of 8K on a 300K house high? A young family with two kids in the school district will use close to 40K in services each year.
I do not buy the 10k-20k number used for each student. Here is why,
Average class size: 20 kids
Assuming 15K per student expenses should be: $300K
Now average teacher salary: $60K
With benefits: $80K
Transportation cost: $30K (driver does many schools per day)
Misc cost per class per year: $40K ($2K per student)
Total: $150K max
Cost per student: $7.5K max
Most other costs like administration etc… are spread over much larger number of kids, so individual components should be very less.
Also the folks who have kids are doing service to folks who don’t have kids, as these kids will be paying for retirement of other folks as well.
$8K tax for $300K house is in sane, any which way you measure it.
3b. When comparing NJ and LI, ignoring NYC is stupid. ASAIK, NJ has better jobs than LI. And when selling a house in NNJ not mentioning proximity to NYC is stupid too.
New Jersey median household income rank = 1
New Jersey median household income growth rank = 1
http://tinyurl.com/yoarrz
New Jersey millionaire households rank = 1
http://tinyurl.com/6hd7dg
New Jersey median home price rank in 2006 = 5
http://tinyurl.com/5acxxd
New Jersey households earn the highest incomes in the country. The state is saturated with millionaire households. So it makes sense that home prices are high in New Jersey. People in this state can afford to pay them.
271 PGC – the state releases data on Chapter 123 common level ranges for each town each year. The average ratio is the average assessment to sale price ratio for the current tax year. There is also data for upper and lower levels that is relevant to property tax appeals.
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/chap123/chapter123statewide.pdf
The Glen Ridge reval is interesting because the assessments are almost all below market. Do not expect to purchase a home in GR for the assessed price. I think the town deliberately lowballed the assessments to discourage property tax appeals. Most of our friends in the south end of town are assessed easily 100k below the market value of their home.
grim, in mod
John: Here are some numbers on education expenses. They are from 1996 article, you can apply inflation to see current numbers.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/briefs/bp-025.html
#344 NJGator: Most of our friends in the south end of town are assessed easily 100k below the market value of their home.
Or perhaps they are assessed where they should be for the market in 2008.
movinB Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Anybody have a URL for a simple explanation of AMT (other than wikipedia)? thanks…
IRS Tool
http://apps.irs.gov/app/amt2007/index.jsp?ck
#343 That is not my point. My point is the jobs base in NJ is continuing to erode,rapidly with the loss of big pharma and telecoms and now Wall St back office jobs, to mention just 3 categories.
If we are marketing our state simply as being close to NYC, then that is stupid.
NJ may have better jobs than LI, but LI is at least the last time I checked part of the state of NY.
If all we as a state have left is our proximity to NYC then we have a problem.
#348 chifi – thanks much… trying to figure out how/if this affects us
347 3B – One family that we know in this neighborhood came in assessed at $450k and just sold for $560k. Another got assessed at $390k – about 100k below their 2004 sales price and they made improvements after purchasing.
While it would be nice, unfortunately we have not fallen that far yet.
Also, go here and look at appendix A
It helps to understand from a top down perspective so you don’t get lost in the numbers.
http://www.ombwatch.org/budget/amtbackgrounder.pdf
It helps if you try to divorce yourself from the current (regular) tax system and just focus on the AMT calc. If you start there, it makes illustrates just how easy the AMT is. Appendix A in this link really drives the differences home…
3b 350,
I disagree. NJ incomes are country’s highest. And they’re growing the fastest. At least that’s what this data indicates.
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/income06/statemhi2.html
I’m not saying everything is great here. But the job market here isn’t horrible either.
SG first of all heating and maint cost, insurance, debt payments and special ed, reading teachers hall montiors, library sports, electricity, vehicles, books, building maint etc. are not in your budget. Plus 60K teachers, heck my sisters district on LI one third of the teachers make over 100K.
BIG AMT ISSUE….don’t be scared by the small exemption amount listed for 2008 and beyond. Assume that late this year there will be an AMT “fix”, so assume an exemption equal to the 2007 amount, but there is a good shot it will be higher…..they patch the thing every year and only for the current year….
# 341 Ahh, but you forget what one of King John’s minions said recently — something to the effect that the people in the state who earn $100,000 or less are a net drag on the state and do not matter.
Does anyone have a URL to his statement?
#353
“It helps if you try to divorce yourself from the current (regular) tax system and just focus on the AMT calc. If you start there, it makes illustrates just how easy the AMT is. ”
Chifi,
The AMT comes down to the following two line tax form:
1) How much did you make last year?
2) Send it in!
Shore Guy Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Chifi,
The AMT comes down to the following two line tax form:
1) How much did you make last year?
1a) Do you live in a state/local area with taxes (i.e. Blue State)?
2) Send it in!
2a) Distribute money to Red States
pretorious,
That data is 2 years old.
Chifi,
As I was growing up the cry was, “Better dead than red.”
gary #330: My POS cape is on a 75 x 100 lot and my taxes are about 8000 — and going up by $300-$500/year. 12 years ago when we moved in they were $4300. My town is a victim of one-party rule; the same people have run unopposed for decades. We are just lucky that recently their plan to shovel $2MM into the pockets of one of their landscaping cronies for artificial turf on the ball fields in town was met with enough outcry that suddenly the little dears were able to play on fields that were reseeded for $20K.
Good point, chifi. This state has a huge federal tax liability.
Don’t know why this isn’t a bigger political issue here. But would be hard to eliminate this liability entirely in a low-poverty state with minimal farm and military presence.
Hobokenite, can you produce better data?
#353 pret: I stated for Bergen Co, that 70$ of hosueholds in the county made 100K or less a year iw as not quoting numbers for the entire state.
I too was surprised by that number, (thought that it was low) but that was from a US Census report in 2006.
Jill,
How on earth can people expect the kids to play on grass fields? That is so retro.
SG you forgot that this is Jersey/LI/Westchester where each 20 students gets an administrator, usually someone with political connections who makes a 150k per annum. Ideally property taxes should be somewhere from 1%-2% of a homes value, so on that 300k home $4000-6000 in property taxes is reasonable. Places in Essex are really crazy, the tax situation there is criminal because most of the county does not contribute. Places like West Orange and Montclair have taxes like 20k on an 800k home.
Scenario of Gary at 317 is the most likely outcome unless we see a huge increase in unemployment. During high unemployment, most people, including renters are afraid to buy.
Pretorious,
No, but I’m not the one claiming that incomes are growing the fastest of any state in NJ. What you are really showing is that they were doing so 2 years ago.
#367 NNJ: Is it? Then how do youe explain one of the worst April selling seasons in years?
How do you explain the huge inventory that for the most part is sitting?
What are all the renters out there doing now? If unemployment in you estimation has not spiked, then why are the renters are afraid to buy?
Like I said earlier, I am not concerned about the 1 house that sells, but rather the 10 that are sitting.
jcer – Essex County taxes.
Surprised many consider any of these towns in Essex considering the tax burden.
#366 jcer: Do not forget the out of control school spending on construction and remodeling, approved by the residents, because the local BOE’s told they had to or their property values would go down.
And forget 8k in my Bergen Co town they are starting in many instances at 10k.
3b – As a prospective NJ resident, that gives me little faith in the taxpayers around me to see through the spin and make an educated decision.
I have two theories to share here:
1. I don’t think anyone in the white-collar world is actually working hard, save for a few. The name of the game now is to put 5-10 years into a place and collect a severance package. Why overwork yourself for your 3% raise when you can surf the web, post to blogs, and still get your 3%? If your job gets teleported to India, take your package and move on to your next gig.
2. Inflation is done with housing but it will work its way into just about everything else. My local A&P keeps baby formula behind the customer service desk now, no doubt because a lot of it walked. I paid $4 for a loaf of bread last night. A midweek run would usually cost around $15. Now minor trips hit the $25 range. We’ll all be rubbing elbows with the desperate at the grocery stores and gas stations soon, and I’m afraid those places will become flash points for discontent.
Some continue to look in their rear view mirrors. Forget about 2006 income data. Look at trends.
“The bottom line is that 2007 may turn out to be “one and done” for the Northeast’s resurgence in relative employment performance, as the foundations of its recent economic fortune dissipate. Fasten your economic seatbelts, because the road ahead will see challenges rivaling the after effects of the bursting of the
high-technology bubble in the early part of this decade and the collapse of the housing bubble in the early 1990s.”
http://policy.rutgers.edu/reports/rrr/rrrapr08.pdf
F-Bomb at 11
http://www.nypost.com/video/?vxSiteId=0db7b365-a288-4708-857b-8bdb545cbd0f&vxChannel=NY%20Post&vxClipId=1458_286348&vxBitrate=300
BC Bob,
The latest figures leaking out of Trenton show that income tax collections are coming in dramatically higher than expectations.
Maybe New Jersey tax cheats suddenly began paying taxes this year. A more probable explanation for Trenton’s surprisingly large tax haul would be New Jersey workers continue to bring in a lot of $$$$$.
I generally agree with those Rutgers guys. But they need to revisit their gloomy 2008 predictions. Trenton wouldn’t be raking it in like this if employment and incomes were contracting in New Jersey.
Hi guys I sold my house in Florida after nearly 17 months on the market!!!! I purchased it for 549,000 in 2005….2 months after purchase the market dropped like a bomb. I would have stayed and tried to hang on, but got a divorce..ouch. I ended up selling the house for 450,000 dollars. I received 1 offer in the 17 months!!!!!I lost 100,000 dollars on the deal but actually feel lucky. Take a peek at what’s going on down here and I think you’ll find it similar to the Jersey situation. P.S. The house was waterfront with 160 feet of seawall!!!! I thought I stole it for 549,000 back in the day…We are in big trouble here in Florida and no end in sight. I won’t buy again until I move out of this country.
I have a theory on the gas prices…It seems the gas has had an alarming increase in price just about the time the housing market crashed. Is it possible (even remotely) that by increasing the gas prices, the government is going to use the excess to bail out the banks??? Kind of an indirect tax without telling the American people??? just curious
NJ had a lot less flippers compared to FL, NV or CA. If things were really bad in NJ then prices would have dropped like a rock but they have not.
Or, maybe lots of people filed their income taxes (including state) early so they would get their stimulus checks faster.
pretorius Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
BC Bob,
The latest figures leaking out of Trenton show that income tax collections are coming in dramatically higher than expectations.
Maybe New Jersey tax cheats suddenly began paying taxes this year. A more probable explanation for Trenton’s surprisingly large tax haul would be New Jersey workers continue to bring in a lot of $$$$$.
pret: did you see my earlier post….I am only making an educated guess…do you have any data regarding 401(k)/IRA withdrawals and capital gains?
Chifi, you make interesting points. No I don’t have any data on that stuff. State budget people should issue a report soon. Maybe it will contain some tidbits about the source of the windfall.
NJ lawmakers to hear gloomy revenue forecast
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/03/lawmakers_to_hear_gloomy_reven.html
relieved 377
congrats i suppose, on escaping while you could.
regarding gas prices…. the short answer is a 99% certainty NO. to simplify a complex issue, gas prices are determined by the refineries and how much it cists them to buy crude oil. the only way the government directly influecnes the price is by taxing the gas. the gas tax is not a percentage , but a fixed value. so if the goverment wants more money from gas then they need people to buy more gas not less. The current high gas prices encourage people to buy LESS ga not more. so the governen is actually bringing less revenue from gas sales.
Remember, people cashing out of their homes to move out of state may be hit with capital gains.
Yes, a married couple gets to exclude up to $500K of capital gain on the sale of a principal residence, but if you were carrying forward your tax basis (i.e. pre-1997 rules), you must use your ORIGINAL basis, not the purchase price of your current home.
In this scenario, it is pretty easy to find people who have lived in NJ for 20 years with $600K+ homes that have a tax basis under $100K. Bingo….pay Corzine…
I think one should look at the crack spreads before arriving at some govt ploy.
BC Bob Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
I think one should look at the crack spreads before arriving at some govt ploy.
Bost: what do hookers in Newark have to do with any of this discussion?
chi fi has a good point
FYI a crack spread is the proportion of a barrel of crude oil that gets distilled/cracked to oil derivitives such as gas/diesel/kerosene/asphalt etc.
crack refers to catalytic cracking, a chemical process of breaking down crue oil into other components such as gas.
Chifi, does anyone track the crack spread in newark? how about elizabeth, i am there right now, i could make a quick crack spread stop.
Gary, I kept thinking of you as I read this:
http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1210659330.php
I don’t know why.
Hobokenite,
The article you posted described the gloomy outlook that is now being revised because it was too pessimistic.
Chifi,
Here’s the report.
Appears that New Jersey workers and businesses are doing a lot better than expected.
The expectation for realty transfer fees has been revised downward, so I don’t think the good news is related to home sales. Sales tax revenues have also been revised down.
Looks like this economic slowdown is hitting the consumer sector hardest, while the corporate sector is still doing okay.
http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/legislativepub/budget%202009/Testimony/LBFO_remarks051308.pdf
before BC or Chifi call me out for being way over simplified,
crack spread is more accuratly known as the profit margin that a refinery can make by extracting other products from oil
Chifi, on a $500k home sale gain, NJ rakes off capital gains tax in addition to the realty transfer tax?
“Bost: what do hookers in Newark have to do with any of this discussion?”
Because they are the only segment of the market immune to the credit crunch.
Pretorious,
Actually, it’s mostly referring to the next fiscal year, which starts July 1.
OT,
Vatican says it’s OK to believe in Aliens
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24598508/
BC bob i disagree.
the lovely ladies of newark could probably tell you about a coming economic slow down before most economists. what is the first thing that gets cut back when people start to feel economic pressure?
If I recall correctly, realty transfer tax is only on properties over $1 million. NY State and NYC does not have this limit.
Incorrect my friend.
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/lpt/rtffaqs.htm
You are thinking of the mansion tax (paid by the buyer).
#393 pret:while the corporate sector is still doing okay.
For Now.
is corporate doing ok? a lot of companies have instituted hiring freezes and have tightened down on the checkbook from what i have seen, but my view may be limited and non-representative?
pre,
are their metrics for how corporate is doing?
I think NYC has a million $ mansion tax
as well
grim/richnj: Can one of you guys tell me if 672 Center Ave in River Edge closed.
I know it went under contract on or around April 1. When I drove by tonight the for sale sign was still there. However, the under contract sign was gone. Thanks as always.
Do NJ residents pay realty transfer tax or is it only for NJ non-residents? I think NYS has 0.75% transfer tax, and NYC adds some more.
#382 NNJ but they have not.
But they are, and they will continue to going forward. And meanwhile the economy in the state continues to decline.
#406 NNJ Yes they do. I paid it.
“are their metrics for how corporate is doing?”
2 useful ones to look at during a slowdown are layoff announcements and cash on balance sheets.
Despite lots of apocolyptic headlines about “Wall Street” layoffs, the number of people getting fired is nowhere close to the level experienced in 2001 & 2002. Meanwhile, US companies have more than $1 trillion stashed in the bank.
#379 pret:employment and incomes were contracting in New Jersey.
But yet incomes and jobs are contrating in NJ, which makes that so called windfall suspect.
grim or someone else,
can you post the chart showing how long the 90’s bubble to to come down and bottom out, there seems to be a lot of impatient souls on the board lately.
gentlemen (and ladies), kick back and have a drink (maybe a large one, this is going to take a few years). enjoy the show that is modern america, you couldnt write this stuff for a soap opera.
if you want to know the future study the past, and the past tells us how this will pan out
3b 410,
did NJ get some of the bear stearns accountants to do thier books???
#409 pret: And yet we have lost the 5th largest Wall St firm (bear), and Citi continues to hemorage employees, along wit many others. Not to mention all the job offers that have been pulled.
And many long time Wall St veterans and observers predict the lay offs will be greater than 01.
You of course know my opinion on that so I will not revisit that topic.
I will note howver, that it is way too early for you to call all clear on Wall St jobs.
And this credit crisis is and will inflict far more harm than the bust of the internet bubble.
Copied shamelessly from CR:
“david_in_ct writes:
The most (to me anyway) piece of the retail sales data was the .4% decline in outlays for gasoline in April vs March. Given that pump prices were up about 6% over the March average this would confirm the idea that gasoline consumption in the US is collapsing. Yet we will undoubtedly hear more silly stories about ‘extremely tight’ oil markets as the energy bubble continues to inflate. When reality catches up to the oil markets its going to get very interesting.”
#375 hardplace: I wish I could tell you it was different, but it is not.
414 hobokenite
i will gladly admit that i could be 100% wrong about oil, but go to the EIA website and ull up global and indivual country oil production/supply numbers. the rate of new fields and new prodcution (whether from old fields or new ones) does not match the rate of consuption growth).
your scenario is a real possibility but it doesnt look like we are headed that way yet, chinese and indian growth are sucking up any excess capacity due to america conservation and/or demand destruction
380…no we have a mean IQ up here that is far higher than you Floridiots.
309 pret
I was going to ask just that question, and you answered it already.
“grim Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Ah, good ol’ Brigadoon.”
She’s lovely this time of year, with the azaleas in bloom….
Ah, good ol’ office.
You went back to NYC?
kettle1,
I have no problem with the peak oil theory in general, I just have a hard time believing that it was suddenly discovered, or that Chindia consumption suddenly spiked, on August 17, 2007.
3b (405),
Still under contract. Estimated close date is 5/16
420+ comments on a Tuesday.
Crazy
365 pret
“Good point, chifi. This state has a huge federal tax liability.
Don’t know why this isn’t a bigger political issue here.”
It’s a huge political issue to me, and something you hear me posting about a lot. When Mitchell comes on here and starts telling me how Mississippi or wherever is governed so much better, it’s in part because they’re spending my tax dollars on their roads.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has to deal with a Federal tax deficit (i.e., the amount by which Californians’ federal taxes exceed federal spending on CA) that is far in excess of the amount of CA’s budget shortfall.
422 hoboken
Of course not. We began to get uncomfortably near peak oil back in early ’04, IMO.
“You went back to NYC?”
Yes. I am too far away for you to hear my weeping.
From the Milwaulkee Journal Sentinel:
Sprewell’s home foreclosed
A River Hills home belonging to former NBA star Latrell Sprewell was foreclosed on today when he failed to show up in court to contest the action brought by a bank that held his mortgage.
The holder of the mortgage, RBS Citizens Bank, told Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge David Hansher that Sprewell owes $320,284. According to River Hills records, the house is assessed at $610,000 and has an estimated fair market value of $667,980. Spreewell bought the house in 1994 for $405,000.
Sprewell, 37, a Milwaukee native and Washington High School graduate, has had other financial difficulties lately.
In January, his 70-foot yacht, “Milwaukee’s Best,” was sold at auction by the U.S. Marshals Service. The yacht, said to be worth $1.5 million went for $856,000, after Sprewell failed to make the $10,322 monthly payments.
379 pret
“Trenton wouldn’t be raking it in like this if employment and incomes were contracting in New Jersey.”
tax collection is as to ’07.
All the layoffs occuring since the turn of the year aren’t reflected, of course.
Speaking of gas prices, has anyone else noticed a huge increase in the number of people driving stupidly slow?
From CNN/Money:
FBI: Beware of mortgage fraud
FBI officials Tuesday disclosed complaints of mortgage fraud are piling up at record levels this year, and appear certain to shatter last year’s record.
Financial institutions received 33,359 “suspicious activity reports” through the first six months of the current fiscal year, which ended April 30, compared with 46,717 for the entire previous year, the FBI said.
“We could be headed for 70,000 for this year,” said FBI spokesman Stephen Kodak, who acknowledged the increased complaints to be among the reasons FBI Director Robert Mueller predicted last month the mortgage fraud problem will get worse this year.
The new volume of formal complaints buttresses Mueller’s public warning that “as housing prices continue to fall, more financial misdeeds will no doubt come to light.”
…
Those hot-spot states, in order, were: Florida, Georgia, Michigan, California, Illinois, Ohio, Texas, New York, Colorado, and Minnesota.
The report also identified 10 “other states significantly affected by mortgage fraud”: Arizona, Maryland, Utah, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, New Jersey and Connecticut.
Yes. I am too far away for you to hear my weeping.
You didn’t cry alone, I just got home from taking a corporate finance exam.
409 pret
“Despite lots of apocolyptic headlines about “Wall Street” layoffs, the number of people getting fired is nowhere close to the level experienced in 2001 & 2002. Meanwhile, US companies have more than $1 trillion stashed in the bank.”
You’re usually careful about numbers. Where did you find these?
#423 Thanks as always Rich.
“just got home from taking a corporate finance exam.”
Sorry.
G*d forbid you ever have to take a securities law exam.
njpatient,
I’m referring to the huge run up in prices that started once the fed started cutting rates. I believe oil prices (as well as other commodities) reflect a significant amount of speculation (i.e. a bubble).
Of course, as kettle1 says, I could be 100% wrong.
414 hobo
That post seems to suffer from the misimpression that the US is the main driver of gas consumption increases. Not so.
In fact, it seems to assume that the US is the only country consuming oil at all.
G*d forbid you ever have to take a securities law exam.
I’m still planning on slumming it, part-time, at Rutgers Newark or SHU.
436 hobo
I know – I’m pointing out that the huge runup dates back a number of years before ’07.
I disagree about the bubble.
conf call over – work calls
“Despite lots of apocolyptic headlines about “Wall Street” layoffs, the number of people getting fired is nowhere close to the level experienced in 2001 & 2002.”
Pret,
Better fine tune your blackbox. Nowhere close? Supporting data?
“March 24 (Bloomberg) — Wall Street banks hit by mortgage losses and writedowns have cut more than 34,000 jobs in the past nine months, the most since the dot-com boom fizzled in 2001.”
“Citigroup Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Morgan Stanley are among the firms that have disclosed headcount reductions so far. After the Internet bubble burst, 39,800 jobs were eliminated during the same period; the number climbed to 90,000 in the next two years, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets”
“This crisis is much worse than 2001 and we don’t know how long it’s going to last,” said Jo Bennett, a partner at executive search firm Battalia Winston International in New York. Job cuts “could be more than 100,000 in a few years.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aTARUhP3w5xE
Hobokenite
peak oil was first posited and modeled by hubbert M king in the 70s. the quick and dirt of it is that every oil field will experience its own “peak curve” the US peaked in the 70’s. now major fields like cantarell in mexico and ghawar in saudi aradia are hitting the top of their “peak curves” indonesia peaked out in the 90’s.
the weak dollar has exacerbated the oil issue, but it has existed for 30 yrs but we have been able to ignore it because of the 2 super giant oil fields (ghawar and cantarell)
Gas prices…be damned. I rode my bicycle to work today….a Titanium Serotta…..was hitting 30 mph on the flats out of sheer terror. But it was a great ride.
Nj patient,
if you want to be amused, look at how shell is trying to buy up all the water rights along the colorado so that they can use the water for oil shale extraction. you should find that very interesting, as due to the way the legalities of water rights are setup you could end up with aheck of a fight, both legal and otherwise on your hands. i.e water rights have seniority based on age of claim, oldest claim gets water first. so shell may be buying water rights yet not get even a fraction of what they want
Oh, by the way, the #’s above, #442, do not include the 9k cuts at Citi and 4k at Merrill, both recently announced. Add the expected 8-10k coming from Bear and you add 21-23k to the above.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080418/bs_nm/citigroup_results_dc_6
I’ll post the Merrill link ahead.
446 Cont’d;
Merrill job cuts;
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-24569460.htm
was hitting 30 mph on the flats out of sheer terror
280 will do that to you
445 ket
” water rights have seniority based on age of claim, oldest claim gets water first.”
yes – though these laws date way back, and Shell will lobby for new legislation once they’ve got the contractual rights.
Note to hobokenite (speaking of Shell) – Shell’s CEO says peak oil will hit in 2015, so it may just be the case that we’re seeing that getting priced into oil prospectively.
When placing a bid on a home – is it better to use your own realtor or the listing agent?
I’m beginning to think that if you plan to lowball – you’re better off using the listing agent as they will be getting both sides of the commission check and will therefore be more likely to fight for your offer.
Any thoughts?
#446 BC Bob,
I remember the hatchet man roaming the trading floors and back offices in 01/02. Basically the worst performers were cut. I think this time around will be worse. I know of several firms that have eliminated or gone to skeleton crews for fixed income, and I think there are a lot more write offs to come over the next year.
# njp
I wonder if someone in the US will fund the Quebec secessionist movement. If Quebec becomes independent I’ve read a lot of Western Canada would want to join the US. That would put a big dent in our need to import oil since Canada’s tar sand reserves rival the Saudi’s.
Oh Gary
Don’t worry. Have a drink on me. :)
#452
I’m not advocating that, just wondering why I haven’t heard much about Quebec going independent. I thought it was a big story a few years ago.
Kettle1, 72
Instead of killing a town, the town could reinvent itself. Much like during the boom, a town government would condemn entire blocks of low income housing and demolish it to make way for luxury condos, exurb towns can condemn McMansion Farms, bulldoze them, and build low income housing. Now you have less housing stock that no one wanted anyway, and have satisfied the COAH requirement and actually have people living there, paying taxes.
Oh, right. Nobody wants those filthy low income people in their town, and would rather have empty McMansions.
Don’t worry. Have a drink on me. :)
Isn’t it time for another one of these?
#322ish- State of Housing in Exburbs.
Sparta NJ MLS 2495388 Asking $319,410
Taxes: $7,771
Almost 8K taxes for 300K house. Unbelievable
I don’t know how you found that one, but it’s been empty for *at least* a year – sign on the door & everything. It’s also a really busy road which I drive on every day coming & going. However, the sign went up “Bank Owned” in the last week or so & the grass was even cut on Friday. It should be a steal at that price, but I doubt it & those taxes are fairly normal for a house that size in Sparta. I pay nearly that AND lake dues (which I consider worth it).
continued from 457- here’s the real estate agency’s website:
http://www.americanrealtyservicesgroup.com/ for the above. They have quite a coverage area!
#456
Grim – YES it is indeed.
njpatient (437/438),
The US accounts for 25% of global demand. A ~6% decline in US demand would seem to be fairly significant.
456
Yes it is Grim!
Grim (456),
Make that three, yes!
460 hobo
“The US accounts for 25% of global demand. A ~6% decline in US demand would seem to be fairly significant.”
This is true, but at 1.5% of global demand, it doesn’t necessarily do much to stem the massive increase in demand coming out of China, India, much of developing southeast Asia and Russia.
448….just passed under that…..but I hear ya.
So you think global demand (ex US) increased by 2% or more in 1 month just to maintain steady demand?
barain 452
100 barrels of saudi crude is not equal to 100 barrels of oil derived from tar sands. the eroei on saudi crude is in the ball park of 15:! the alberta tar sands is about 8:1
so you would need about 200 barrels of oil from the alberta tar sands to equal 100 barrels of oil from saudi.
bruiser 455
i support COAH, but am trying to point out potential pit falls
Just lovely. What is the draw here?
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-10/12106533697840.xml&coll=1
Man admits desecrating corpse of 92-year-old
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
BY RUSSELL BEN-ALI
Star-Ledger Staff
A lab technician accused of sexually abusing the corpse of a 92-year-old woman inside a Teaneck hospital morgue pleaded guilty yesterday to desecration of human remains.
Anthony Merino, 25, of Manhattan faces up to seven years in prison when he is sentenced for the second-degree crime on July 11. But under a complicated plea agreement negotiated between his attorney, Savyon Grant, and the Bergen County Prosecutor’s Office, Merino could file a motion to have his sentence reconsidered and be placed on five years’ probation after serving 11 months, 15 days in prison. The prosecutor’s office agreed not to oppose the motion, if filed.
hobokenite
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/gifs/Fig5.gif
for anyone with questions about oil/energy and the supply/demand debate
http://gailtheactuary.wordpress.com/2007/07/16/what-is-peak-oil/
kettle1,
doesn’t look like 2%/month growth to me.
Wow, 470 comments on a tuesday night, wish I had the time to read them. Good night Irene..
LK
ooopa
thats
KL
Really good night!
pretorius Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Chifi, on a $500k home sale gain, NJ rakes off capital gains tax in addition to the realty transfer tax?
pret: yes…the RTT is a completely separate item. Think of a cap gain on a primary residence like buying and selling a stock, WITH 2 MAJOR DIFFERENCES….you have the $250K/$500K cap gain exclusion, and if you lose money, a primary residence is considered personal property, so the loss is not deductible for taxes.
pret: you completely nailed my a%% with your NJ revenue data…I relent….let me try to make up more excuses…..inflation? Is it possible that items such as cost of fuel, commodities, and food has kicked up revenue in the state…am I grasping at straws?
check that…I looked at your link….you are correct…corporations paid more taxes….no way around it….I wish we had a breakdown by industry
please shoot me
njpatient Says:
May 13th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
please shoot me
My guess….Vietnamese girl who was sniping at the platoon out of the building in the next to last scene of Full Metal Jacket
nah – just really miserable S-1 disclosure.
I quit.
I’m going home.
Great
Detour through Hobroken. Or maybe it’s JC. They’re both hideous, so who knows which.
Can I have that drink now?
D #457-
I can see why taxes are so high in Sparta. The municipal bldg is a palace. Just had to drive by there the other day. Also, from the amount of police cruisers, it looks like the police force is about as big as NYC’s.
JM
BH 482 Yes, like they have a lot of crime. Spend all there time on rte 15 giving folks tickets.
Ahh, I understand it now. The current ratings measures weren’t flawed, they measured what they intended to measure. However, they didn’t measure what we thought they measured, for that we need a new measure.
In other news, MBIA and Ambac were upgraded by Moody’s on Wednesday to Triple-A Smiley Face, and Triple-A Gold Star, respectively.
Moody’s to unveil new ratings measures -FT
Credit ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service will on Wednesday unveil two new measures to help investors understand the risks in structured finance products, the Financial Times said.
Michel Madelain, the new chief operating officer of Moody’s, told the newspaper that the new indexes would show how rapidly a security could lose a top-notch rating if the economic climate changed.
347 NJGator
Here is a good example of the Glen Ridge assessed
Bought in 2005 for $399K assessed at $67K
http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?&district=0708&block=10&lot=27&qual=
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