Fri 11 Jul 2008
This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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July 11th, 2008 at 5:47 am
frist!
July 11th, 2008 at 5:49 am
Treasuries Fall on Speculation U.S. to Support Fannie, Freddie
By Gavin Finch and Wes Goodman
July 11 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasuries fell the most in three weeks on speculation the government will rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest buyers of home loans.
Two-year notes led the declines as stocks rallied after a person familiar with the matter said a takeover of one or both of the companies is among the options being considered by White House officials. The declines pared a weekly gain fueled by concern the mortgage lenders will need an infusion of capital to weather the worst housing slump since the Great Depression.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adALOBZYjQEo&refer=home
July 11th, 2008 at 5:53 am
July 11 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, agreed to sell its German consumer unit to France’s Credit Mutuel Group for 4.9 billion euros ($7.7 billion) in cash to shore up capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMeQUEFroXUg&refer=home
July 11th, 2008 at 6:21 am
Don’t Panic! (GSE Edition)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/84524-don-t-panic-gse-edition?source=headline1
“For loans prior to 2006, losses should be small. Also, Fannie and Freddie have been careful,”
LMAO
If I didn’t laugh I would throw up.
July 11th, 2008 at 6:38 am
From MarketWatch
U.S. weighs Fannie, Freddie takeover: report
Senior Bush administration officials are weighing a plan that would see the government take over one or both of the two largest U.S. mortgage finance firms — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — if a recent deluge of problems worsen, The New York Times reported Friday.
Citing unnamed people who have been briefed on the plan, the report said the plan would place the companies in a conservatorship, under which the shares of Fannie and Freddie would be worth little or nothing. Any losses on mortgages owned or guaranteed by the two government-sponsored enterprises would be paid by taxpayers.
A 1992 law would allow Fannie or Freddie be put into a conservatorship if their top regulator finds either one is “critically undercapitalized,” the Times said.
The companies have lost $11 billion in recent months. And shares of both mortgage buyers plunged for the third time in four days Thursday as fears about their viability rose.
[Emphasis added]
More at the link above
July 11th, 2008 at 7:20 am
GE earnings down by 6%. Should be a fun day, DJI futures down 100 pts already, 10000 here we come !
July 11th, 2008 at 7:22 am
NJ Business Outlook Dire
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080711/NEWS01/807110364/-1/newsfront2
July 11th, 2008 at 7:25 am
NJ Shore Gaming Revenues Slip 11% in June
http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080711/BUSINESS/807110348/-1/newsfront2
July 11th, 2008 at 7:29 am
I consider myself fairly aware, educated, and see myself as a citizen that generally cares about what is going on, as most others on this blog…but if you go to this site, you will be completely confused…(this cites what senators and reps are working on via the library of congress.)
I found one reference on some new housing bill to “strike 30 year mortgage and replace with 40 year.” Yeah that will work.
http://thomas.loc.gov/
July 11th, 2008 at 7:30 am
seems oil hitting all time high 145.98
July 11th, 2008 at 7:36 am
if any of you have time to scan the link in post 9, you will be shocked what these folks are spending their time on..I suppose after watching them in action on this financial stuff yesterday I should not be surprised. I think I’m moving into the anger phase, just unbelievable what these politicians do (or don’t do)
July 11th, 2008 at 7:40 am
#11 - I think I’m moving into the anger phase
If you get to the ‘armed insurrection’ phase let me know. I think that might be about the only viable solution at this point.
July 11th, 2008 at 7:45 am
you mofo’s are up early!
July 11th, 2008 at 7:46 am
toshiro_mifune …it will get ugly
July 11th, 2008 at 7:47 am
“Fannie and Freddie have been careful,”
The captain of the Titanic was also careful.
July 11th, 2008 at 7:52 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=5353921
Congressional Democrats are divided over important elements of the plan, including limits on loans the FHA may insure and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may buy. The Senate measure sets them at $625,000, while House leaders — including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., — want the cap as high as $730,000.
July 11th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Rich [5],
I said, a long time ago, this bailout, Resolution Bust Corp., would make the RTC look like a walk in the park.
It’s encouraging that our govt is currently working on contingencies for this potlitical, corrupt cesspool [GSE's]. Let’s make their like easier. Two options; traditional burial or creamation.
July 11th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac both fall 30% in pre-open trade
>>
You can almost dollar cost average these to ZERO!
July 11th, 2008 at 7:56 am
“strike 30 year mortgage and replace with 40 year.” Yeah that will work.”
Let’s hear it for 100 year mortgages. We are all turning Japanese.
1) Inflate
2) Deep recession, mini depression
3) Dead man walking
July 11th, 2008 at 7:57 am
got in line at the AT&T store in Bucks County at 540 am. there were 22 people in line for the iphone. they only have 30.
line stretched to about 70 and the poor AT&T folks had to come out and tell them there were no phones for them.
yes, im a dork.
(fortunately, i’ve had wireless the entire time sitting out here, and i brought a chair)
July 11th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Remember that green cabbage you carry is a federal reserve note, legal tender for all debts, public and private. It’s backed by full faith and credit. Good night!
July 11th, 2008 at 8:00 am
of note: first phone i’ve purchased in about 4 years. the phone im dumping i got free, and it’s blows; prior to that, my office gave me a phone (Treo - rocked).
naturally, the real estate topic came up early - probably 610 am.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:05 am
#15 BC
If you click on the link and read the guys credentials, just more proof that certifications and higher edumacation ain’t be worth two much.
The guy’s a CFA, FSA, senior investor analyst. Yet is still funneling the koolaid.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:06 am
Hunter (16)-
Maybe Pelosi should call over to Fannie & Freddie. I think they’re a little light in the wallet this week.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Can we charter a plane and send our fed, minus Fisher, and our Treasury? Where is Nurse Rached?
“July 11 (Bloomberg) — On a private island 20 minutes by helicopter from central London, a hovercraft sits on the lawn of a turreted Edwardian manor house as swallows swoop around.”
“The island isn’t a country hideaway. It’s the Causeway Retreat, a mental health and addiction center that charges as much as 10,000 pounds ($20,000) a week for treatment away from the prying eyes of colleagues and the media. There is a waiting list for the facility’s 15 rooms.”
“We get lots of CEOs of companies, traders, high-end business guys,” says Managing Director Brendan Quinn. “They want treatment, but they want it to be discreet.”
“I was terrified and thought I’d walked into `One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest,”’ said Naess, 40, who asked that the date of the episode not be revealed. “Then the penny dropped. It was the best place for me to be.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ayIvmRwa4t6E&refer=home
July 11th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Where’s pret?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Do Fannie/Freddie make it to Monday?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:10 am
“Where’s pret?”
Clot,
Filming for a sequel?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syPZZxxFCe0
July 11th, 2008 at 8:13 am
#27 - I don’t know…. This is awfully reminiscent of Bear. FNM in at $8.70 bid pre-open. Does a strong player come in and prop them up? Who’s left?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:14 am
“Who’s left?”
Tosh,
Gold.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:15 am
(29)-
Who’s left? You, me, our kids and our kids’ kids.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:16 am
Who says housing is only 4% of the economy?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Clot,
Email.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:17 am
I smell a Saturday Night Massacre brewing.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:20 am
Wow, bid has now dipped below $8 and falling.
#34 - Does Bergabe have the balls?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:21 am
perhaps i can propose a new game for when things get slow:
Name That Poster…..
we repost some of the great comments from RE101, Bi, Pre and everyone has to guess who wrote it without goggling.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:23 am
Clotpoll Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Where’s pret?
I’ve been thinking the same for weeks. Honestly, I want to hear his take, not run him up the flagpole…..
July 11th, 2008 at 8:24 am
kettle [36],
Where’s Richard?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:24 am
kettle1 Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 8:21 am
perhaps i can propose a new game for when things get slow:
Name That Poster…..
we repost some of the great comments from RE101, Bi, Pre and everyone has to guess who wrote it without goggling.
ket: too early for beer….
July 11th, 2008 at 8:25 am
“Honestly, I want to hear his take”
Chi,
Would rather hear Bergabe jawboning the dollar.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Clot 24..People are looking for leadership, and it is not there. I see it in the workforce as well, political correctness is now the current management model. That is why I love the Boone Pickens commercials..
July 11th, 2008 at 8:26 am
9 house
” found one reference on some new housing bill to “strike 30 year mortgage and replace with 40 year.” Yeah that will work”
I din’t realize reinvestor101 was in congress
July 11th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Bourbon?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:28 am
I found one reference on some new housing bill to “strike 30 year mortgage and replace with 40 year.” Yeah that will work.
Another example of politicians throwing the next generation of homeowners under the bus in an attempt to rescue current homeowners from their own excess.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:29 am
From AP via Yahoo
Foreclosure rescue to pass Senate; House next
Struggling homeowners who can’t afford their mortgages and banks facing big losses would get government help under a foreclosure rescue that has broad bipartisan support.
The plan is headed for Senate passage Friday, but faces a bumpy road, with the House planning a rewrite and the White House threatening a veto without major changes.
With the last procedural hurdles scaled Thursday, the package was on track for resounding approval in the Senate. It has drawn broad support in the Senate, reflecting widespread interest by lawmakers in both parties in sending election-year help to struggling homeowners facing tough economic times.
The centerpiece of the plan would let the Federal Housing Administration back up to $300 billion in new loans to give struggling homeowners more affordable, fixed-rate mortgages. It allows lenders who agree to take a substantial loss on the mortgages to reclaim at least some money and avoid a costly foreclosure.
More at the link above
July 11th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Today will be an early big sell off - three words - buy the exchanges - they work off volumne - but are dumped in with other FS stinkers.
I am still waiting for a livable house on the north shore of long island to fall under one million and one bedroom in NYC to fall under 500K. The good stuff has to crumble to get to the bottom. Who cares if subprime hell holes no one wants to live in crashes in price as that does not help the average person who wants to live in a good town, with a good school that is commutable to the city. Those teflon towns are going to get the spanking of a lifetime in the next 24 months.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Rich [45],
Dead man walking.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:37 am
26 clot
“Where’s pret?”
Beginning to think maybe he got laid off. He was in the RE business after all.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:39 am
NJP 42
the scary thing is RE101 does sound somewhat like a congressman i meet about a year ago
July 11th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Chi
“too early for beer….”
I’m afraid that will have to be recycled along with all the other ridiculous comments.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Do Fannie/Freddie make it to Monday?
I’d say we could see a weekend bailout, but the Fed doesn’t have the balance sheet to do it. This will take action by congress.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:41 am
patient (48)-
Probably right. He was a REIT guy, wasn’t he?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:41 am
“Those teflon towns are going to get the spanking of a lifetime in the next 24 months.”
John,
Without the mules, the horsemen are swimming naked.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Rent (51)-
Balance sheet? Who needs a balance sheet, when you have a high-speed printing press?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:43 am
“the Fed doesn’t have the balance sheet to do it”
Renting [51],
Strictly a taxpayer problem.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:45 am
“Probably right. He was a REIT guy, wasn’t he?”
Clot,
I thought he was a consultant for a retail firm. After all, he did report that the chaps were shopping, in England, over X-Mas.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:46 am
52 clot
I believe so. Not a lot of demand there. I’ve been spending a reasonable amount of time the last year working on sales of distressed REITs. We didn’t write in much protection for the rank and file.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:47 am
(Sean) 196 yesterday-Fed doesn’t want you to get a raise…
“In the past, the Fed has looked closely at core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices in order to see broader trends) to gauge whether higher energy prices are spilling over into a generalized inflation.”
Now, Crandall said, the Fed is going “beyond the core-price concept” to look directly at wages. If wages rise quickly, the Fed will act, even if it means pushing the economy over the cliff by raising interest rates high enough to kill inflation.”
(Quick! Everybody ask for a raise!)
“The Fed’s view could be political dynamite. Hard-pressed workers must sacrifice their living standards. But people haven’t really accepted the bad news yet: We are poorer because of the surge in food and energy prices, and no one - not Uncle Sam nor Uncle Ben - can change that.”
“The only way to deal with the oil price spike is for real incomes to go down,” Crandall said.
So they are ignoring the cost of living and worrying about wage inflation???? Huh….?
If this guy thinks we haven’t “accepted the bad news yet” he’s crazy.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:49 am
This is a bunch of bullspit. See what you’ve done?? See what all of you have done?? You terrorists wanted to see this happen so you did everything you possibly could to destroy the housing markets. This is bad, really bad and what are some of you doing? Clicking your heels and celebrating? That’s totally inappropriate and is so like how terrorists operate.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:50 am
(59) Oh ma gosh…there he is!
July 11th, 2008 at 8:52 am
#46 John:Those teflon towns are going to get the spanking of a lifetime in the next 24 months.
They are going to be getting that spanking over the next 12 months.
It is getting incredibly uglier every day.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:53 am
when has the cost of something stopped the government? and yes, while the FED is not a strictly governmental body (Evil private banking cartel), it is acting as one for all intents and purposes at the moment
July 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
#60 - He’s kind of like a retarded Candyman .
July 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Regarding a post from late last night about people taking their hosues off the market until next Spring when the market recovers.
They really do not mean that, do they? I mean are there truly talking heads and semi-comatose would be home sellers out there who believe that the markett will recover next Spring?
You know next Spring, like about 9 months from now.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:57 am
50.5 [59],
I’m not even sure that 50.5 is even appropriate at this time. I’ll check with our quant, I think you may have been downsized again.
If it’s so bad, fork up some dough and assist a bagholder.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:57 am
As far as this housing rescue bill, how exactly is this going to work, if at theh same time we are rescuing banks and homeowners Freedie & Fannie are on the way out?
July 11th, 2008 at 8:59 am
#50 njpatient: It is never too early for beer.
July 11th, 2008 at 8:59 am
3b, once they are spanked that will be it. I remember back in the day when my friends who got married young all bought houses in 1988-1990 and then their was a blow out sell out to around early 1993. They were all underwater till 1999 and their were not much buyers. All the people who went bankrupt were done by 1993 and the working joes who were underwater could not afford to sell at such a loss just stayed in their pos capes for another 7 years, no one was buying or selling except for divorces and estate sales. The big question is where is at that bottom? Unlike stocks real estate has a “junk in the trunk” wide bottom, so once we hit bottom us folks have 1-4 years to stroll in. Their will be no V shaped recover as the NAR would like us to think. Though in a perverse way that late 30s/early 40s women who is the schill for the NAR in all those commericals who tells me to buy buy buy is getting me all hot under the collar.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Tard (59)-
Three letters: SKF.
Suck it.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:01 am
“As far as this housing rescue bill, how exactly is this going to work”
3b,
An explosion in govt supply. What rate would you settle for, if you were bidding at the next treasury auction?
July 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
#56 BC Bob: I belive he said he worked fro Morgan Stanley in their real estate division.
I recall theat he was sent to Europe to scout out commercail acquistions.
But in all seriousness if he was laid off,then I do feel bad for him, because his personality type will not handle that well;not that anybody necessarily would.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
John (68)-
“Though in a perverse way that late 30s/early 40s women who is the schill for the NAR in all those commericals who tells me to buy buy buy is getting me all hot under the collar.”
Bring on dafunk.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:04 am
RE: I had no idea of the awesome power of this little blog, that it could sink the US housing market. Perhaps we could harness it for good, such as curing cancer and bringing world peace?
#59 RE said, “See what you’ve done?? See what all of you have done??”
July 11th, 2008 at 9:08 am
#61 3b,
I’m seeing price drops of 1 to 2% a month in the towns we’re looking at.
The race to the bottom seems to be picking up speed.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:09 am
3b [71],
I agree 100%. Never want to see anybody laid off.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:11 am
#75 BC Bob,
Not even Bergabe?
July 11th, 2008 at 9:13 am
I think a governemnt bail out is going to cause long term interest rates to go up. Higher rates in a normal world should decrease borrowing power. Less borrowing power = deflation.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:16 am
Clot,
I think you were too pessimistic with your comment last night about us huddling around a burning barrel. We can squat in a mcmansion instead.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:21 am
bairen [76],
That’s a tough one. There are conflicting signals.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:23 am
The McMansions will become boomer boarding houses as people rent out bedrooms. Might not be a bad idea. Older people shouldn’t live alone anyway and pooling resources will be a necessity as this all comes unglued.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:24 am
re 39
guess who wrote it without goggling.
Moe like withot gagging.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:24 am
bairen [77],
Rates will rise. Increasing supply dilutes the offering, hammers the dollar. Not to mention inflation. The only scenario in which rates will fall is kiss your #ss goodbye. At some point, foreign buyers will say adios.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Moe = more
tiny keyboard, big fingers
July 11th, 2008 at 9:27 am
How is the real estate doing on the Jersey shore? Anyone know or can direct me to a site that talks about it. Would love to pick up a little Cape at the end of the summer.
Thanks!
July 11th, 2008 at 9:29 am
#82 BC Bob,
Sorry,
Meant deflation of housing.
I really mistimed this. Thought this bust would happen in 04 and I would be over in Sydney watching the carnage from afar.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Who’s going to buy all those houses next spring? RE as an investment is dead. Take out the flippers and “evil” speculators (who have moved into commodities), take out the ignorant who were sold predatory loans (true comment from Philly.com - a guy thought he could turn his rent payment into a mortage payment and complained that no one told him about property taxes!) take out the uber-comsumers who HELOC’d themselves into the poor house, and all that’s left are people who actually need and can afford a house. Sounds like things are getting back to normal.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Does anyone know where I can get Australian beer in NJ? Like James Boag or James Squire. I can only find Fosters.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:38 am
#70 BC Bob: Inflation be damned.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:46 am
“Who’s going to buy all those houses next spring?”
DL,
Sell? Sell to whom? All, on a relative basis, the idiots have bought. The new pant up demand, vultures.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Fannie, Freddie: 45% and sinking fast
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/11/news/companies/fannie_freddie_shares/index.htm
“Immediately after the market open shares of Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) were both off more 45% from their already battered close on Thursday.”
I wish I had bought puts on them in real life. I did pick them to underperform on my fool virtual portfolio. There collapse should really boost my caps score. See, some good will come out of this 5 trillion dollar debacle.
July 11th, 2008 at 9:49 am
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Market analyst Jon Najarian at options research firm OptionMonster Inc. in a research note Friday morning said that, although he believes government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM:Fannie Mae FNM 8.05, -5.15, -39.0%) and Freddie Mac (FRE:Freddie Mac FRE 4.76, -3.24, -40.5%) will continue doing business, “their shares in my opinion are likely worthless.” He said crude-oil prices hitting another record and tough talk from Treasury Secretary Paulson on banks had set the table for a “monster” day in the markets Friday. “There is no reading between the lines necessary here,” Najarian wrote. “I think Freddie and Fannie equity may be toast, which means the government will simply take over both, as [it] can’t let $5 trillion in mortgages vaporize.”
July 11th, 2008 at 10:00 am
84—re: Jersey shore. I can only speak about 2 towns, Ocean Grove and Asbury, and the market would appear to be mostly dead right now. Neither the very expensive houses nor the houses that need tons of work are selling. And yet these owners are still turning down low-ball offers. I can’t imagine the situation is much different in other towns. If you wait until Sept/Oct, when shore sellers start getting really desperate about unloading before the winter, you might do well.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:04 am
BC,
It’s official, the pyramid scheme will be socialized. Lucky joe six pack. Oil and food through the roof eating into your wallet and now you get stuck paying for the millions Wall Street and the mortgage brokers walked away with over the past ten years.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:06 am
McCain advisor Phil Gramm says the US Recession Is “Mental” and America Is “Nation Of Whiners”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/10/mccain-adviser-americans_n_111857.html
Come on guys its all in your head and RE101 was right after all, enough with the terroristic doom and gloom!
July 11th, 2008 at 10:08 am
You terrorists wanted to see this happen so you did everything you possibly could to destroy the housing markets.
Should you ever decide to step out of your delusional fantasy world of “fighting terrorists” and engage in a serious discussion about the housing bubble and economic bubbles in general, you would find that the naysayers generally have very little impact on how a collapsing bubble unfolds.
In fact, history has shown that the naysayers generally contribute more to rising prices than they do the bubble’s collapse. Bubbles always last longer and prices go up further than most naysayers believe. As the early predictions of a collapse never materialize (the Economist in 2003, for example), the bears appear to be proven wrong again and again. This only serves to further embolden the bulls who take this evidence that “things really are different this time”.
By the time the bubble does actually burst, the bears have been dismissed by the speculative masses as “chicken littles” or having a case of sour grapes. After all, they didn’t have the financial acumen to recognize this brave new world where buying and selling houses from each other is the foundation of permanent economic prosperity
July 11th, 2008 at 10:09 am
parallels between conditions leading to the great depression of 1929 and 2009
http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761584403/great_depression_in_the_united_states.html
July 11th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Does anyone know where I can get Australian beer in NJ? Like James Boag or James Squire. I can only find Fosters
And not to disappoint, but most Fosters around here is actually brewed in Canada
July 11th, 2008 at 10:13 am
HEHE
if the current socialization of the housing losses doenst have people in the streets then i dont know what will except for perhaps mass starvation?!
On another note, i have talked to several people lately that have changed their minds on the current economic conditions, but their stance is still ” i dont want to know, because it is to depressing and to worrisome” !!!
July 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Bairen,
Your best bet might be a wine country or gary’s marketplace for these beers.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Grim,
Is this the defining day of saying you were right all along?
July 11th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Thanks danzud.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Only 10:20 AM. I think I need a NJRER GTG today at noon.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Bureaucrats and the Lying Lies They Tell
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Paulson-Bernanke-america-Fed-central-bank/index/a/17975
July 11th, 2008 at 10:26 am
[87] barien,
sorry, not imported. Heck, i would settle for VB or XXXX, but no aussie beers, and not that many aussie wines are imported.
Barien, you will appreciate this: In 1999, I went into a wine shop in Leura and nearly fainted at the sight of all those great aussie wines we couldn’t get here. They also had the complete series of Penfold’s Grange (under lock and key, obviously). Mmmmm. Grange.
Bought a ton of wine there, and still have one really great 1999 from a vineyard in Yarra Valley, which will be opened on 10/9/09.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:29 am
Kettle,
Sad thing is whether you own or rent the Federal Government has decided you are going to be bagholder. The only difference is the size of the bag.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:32 am
To Renting in NJ #94:
Hear, hear! I could not have said it better myself!
To the “little man” who is continuing his noble fight against the terrorist on this blog: Dude, lighten up. I do not condone the use of drugs, but in your case I will make the exception. I strongly urge you to self medicate to the point where you can at least form a coherent argument. Oh wait a minute; you have not made any arguments that I have seen in my months viewing this blog. In that case, put down the bong and have a beer. Trust me, you need to relax.
To the member of homeland security monitoring this blog: the preceding was only a joke and is should not be construed as anything actionable under law. But many a joke contains some kernel of truth!
July 11th, 2008 at 10:32 am
RE: Aussie beverages.
If you really want them, your local Gary’s can likely special-order them for you if they don’t have them in stock.
And Nom, when I worked at Gary’s in Madison, we had a full suite of high-end Penfolds in the back room, among the higher-end Burgundy, Bordeaux and Cali selections.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:33 am
morph,
On the contrary; he needs to pick up a bong and chill the f out.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:34 am
From the article i linked before:
The stock market crash announced the beginning of the Great Depression, but the deep economic problems of the 1920s had already converged a few months earlier to start the downward spiral. The credit of a large portion of the nation’s consumers had been exhausted, and they were spending much of their current income to pay for past, rather than new, purchases. Unsold inventories had begun to pile up in warehouses during the summer of 1929.
sound familiar?
July 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
bairen, Joe Canal’s.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:39 am
is a bong enough for 101? he might need some ketamine
July 11th, 2008 at 10:40 am
DJIA sub-11k by end of day?
July 11th, 2008 at 10:42 am
#103 nom
The aussies think it’s funny they dump Fosters and Yellow Tail on us. I never met one Aussie who would admit to drinking either one. I wonder if Newcastle Brown Ale from the UK is the same as the one in Australia. Wow yarra valley, I took a little day trip on the yarra river in Melbourne once.
I have a good VB story for you.
My first day in Sydney I walked into a pub called “Fortune of War” in The Rocks section of Sydney. It claims to be Sydney’s oldest pub.
The bartender was this hot blonde aussie gal. She gave me this big smile, walked over and I thought she said “Would you like a vd?”
Still suffering from the long flight from Jersey, “I’m thinking, wow, Aussies really are friendly. , I’m thinking She’s asking me if I want an STD. But I really didn’t want one, and my wife would have killed me.”
She repeats it and I must have looked even more confused. She then says “vd, the beer, mate. Its what you yanks luv” and points to the tap for Victoria Bitters (VB).
Was tthe first, but not the last time I had a wee bit of trouble understanding Australian English
July 11th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Re: Aussie beverages
Why don’t you brew your own? By the time the product reaches the shores of the good ol USA (See homeland security I am patriotic!), it has lost much of its freshness. Why not hook up with malt extract from a Aussie producer ( I believe Coopers is one such, but, I am not sure)and brew your own.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Thanks Sybarite and Pat. I’ll have to look into those.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Kettle1 - Re: Depression
When I lived in Oregon, we often skiied for several days each year at Timberline Lodge on Mt. Hood. Now there was a good use of federal funds (built in 1936 w/WPA funds.)
They used all of the unemployeed artisans, stone masons, wood carvers etc. ..hand made furniture and stair rails. The place was beautiful…
July 11th, 2008 at 10:53 am
kettle [108],
Our current credit/debt binge makes the roaring 20’s look like a dress rehearsal.
July 11th, 2008 at 10:56 am
So, what’s the New Deal MkII going to look like?
July 11th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Nice Summary of Bergabe:
Now let’s talk about what Ben and The Fed have done:
They have exchanged all but $25 billion of their short-term Treasuries - the most liquid securities that are easy to turn into cash by simply “running them off” as they mature - for paper of unknown quality and we are not permitted to know from whom they’ve taken it or what sort of actual credit quality it has. That amount of money, by the way, is about half of all the retained earnings that The Fed has managed to accumulate over the last 80 years.
They have pumped well over $200 billion in excess liquidity into the system since last summer, making dollars very plentiful. This is in direct contradiction to the claim of a “Strong Dollar Policy”; the way you make something desirable, and therefore expensive (strong) is to make it scarce. Ben has done the exact opposite, on purpose, and he is unrepentant in this regard.
They have taken steps that are arguably unlawful in that they explicitly overstepped the limits of “discounting a note”, which is where their authority supposedly begins and ends, with Bear Stearns in that they effectively purchased that $29 billion in assets and are now operating a separate LLC (with Blackrock as the manager.) The only paper that The Fed is supposed to explicitly purchase is United States Treasury paper. Go read The Federal Reserve Act.
He has granted a “no bid” contract using the excuse of “crisis”, and yet when asked in the hearing whether, now that the crisis was passed, he would send it out for bid and see if it was appropriately priced (and possibly replace Blackrock) he said “he’d think about it.”
Have willfully looked the other way while financial firms - essentially all of them - have lied repeatedly about their capital needs, losses and intentions.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2388420~title_The-Choice-Is-Your.html
July 11th, 2008 at 11:00 am
Love to see the turn out at million dollar + open houses this weekend, maybe if they serve food a few homeless people will come by. Won’t be long before the realtors will be getting up on those grante counters to service the would be buyers.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:01 am
RE: Aussie Beverages
Here is a good simple recipe for an Aussie Red
6 lbs. Extra Light DME or equivelant Pils Malt
1 lb. Crystal 60
1 lb. Belgian Aromatic
1/2 lb. CaraPils
1 oz Saaz @ 60; 1/2 @ 30; 1/2 @ 15; (3.5% AA)
Mash for 155 for 60 mins
WLP009 Australian Ale Yeast
July 11th, 2008 at 11:01 am
This is for the truly “underwater” borrower Ahoy, me subprime maties! Hilarious!
http://newyork.craigslist.org/jsy/sub/750726757.html
July 11th, 2008 at 11:01 am
this is like Rome without the cool parts. we are hosed.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:02 am
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/more-ask-sleepover-test-drive/story.aspx?guid=%7B9504C1CA%2D2AF9%2D4442%2DB5D7%2D4D3BBD0EBE92%7D
July 11th, 2008 at 11:02 am
BC 117,
yet people think we will some how escape a similar fate?????
July 11th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Sybarite:
If a ND2 (new deal 2) is enacted once the SHTF then it will be pretty much like the first one. The infrastructure of the USA is in very poor condition and needs to be overhauled. ND2 can put the population to work redeveloping it . And if the government is REALLY smart (hahah funny i know) then they will rebuild the infrastructure with a ND2 plan to focus on non-fossil fuels. Non-fossil fuels need a different infrastructure to be used efficiently . SO really in some ways a collapse could be a blessing in disguise
July 11th, 2008 at 11:09 am
so what would happen if no bailout? mortgages unavailable, house prices plunge 90%?
July 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
All this fixation with Australian wines, mostly the ones sold in US are crap. I had originally though that this was the case, although I have had some from smaller vineyards from specialty wine stores which are fairly good. That being said it is not something I would go out of my way to seek, for value South American wines beat the pants off of most places you can get fairly good Italian style wines from Chile and Argentina, Malbec, even Merlot the quality of wines has improved drastically(Although still a lot of cheap crap as well comes from Argentina), etc. Their are also some reasonable French wines that are fantastic. The problem with Australian wines is the shipping costs for the smaller producers is high and therefore the wine costs way more than it should. We simply do not import enough from Australia for the shipping of these product to be cheap period.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
123 skeptic.
If we really go into a depression lookout for the riots focused on kicking illegal aliens out. As at that point they are a threat to the average joe being able to acquire necessary resources (i.e food water shelter)because the illegals will be competition for theses very limited resources.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Kettle,
I agree; in addition to what you suggest, I would also like to see more public transport infrastructure.
I just don’t know where the money would come from. Even MORE national debt? How was the original new deal funded?
July 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am
kettle,
Yeah, it kind of s#cks when your debt load is approcx $9 Trillion, 55-60T when you add entitlement programs, and are forced to go to the market with unprecedented new supply.
What foreign country provides the best alternative, when you combine politics, stability, legal system, tax rates, health care, etc.. I’m ready to buy a ticket. Let the masters play in their owh s*it.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:19 am
BC Bob,
CH?
July 11th, 2008 at 11:20 am
#130 BC Bob
Singapore
July 11th, 2008 at 11:26 am
dude, this is a very serious situation, so give the scapegoating a rest for at least a day.
the sky is falling and you keep obsessing about the illegals.
HC
“kettle1 Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
123 skeptic.
If we really go into a depression lookout for the riots focused on kicking illegal aliens out. As at that point they are a threat to the average joe being able to acquire necessary resources (i.e food water shelter)because the illegals will be competition for theses very limited resources.”
July 11th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Singapore? Isn’t drug abuse punishable by death there?
July 11th, 2008 at 11:32 am
“The companies bought or guaranteed 81 percent of all mortgage securities created in the first quarter, almost double their share of a year earlier, according to Ofheo data.”
f- it. let them go down and real estate can be bought with cash like in the old days
July 11th, 2008 at 11:33 am
Dow below 11k
July 11th, 2008 at 11:39 am
bairen Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Does anyone know where I can get Australian beer in NJ? Like James Boag or James Squire. I can only find Fosters.
Dude…it really pains me to post this…but pick tab #5…
http://www.outbacksteakhouse.com/foodandmenus/drinkmenu.aspx
July 11th, 2008 at 11:43 am
#137 chicagofinance
Thanks. I’d go for the James Boag, then Coopers and avoid Toohey’s and fosters.
I wonder if I can order a James boag to go, and forget the food.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:50 am
The Fannie and Freddie doomsday scenario
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/09/news/companies/benner_fanniefreddie.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008071108
“The doomsday scenario could cost taxpayers more than $1 trillion, says the S&P report. The report went so far as to say that a government bailout of Fannie or Freddie could force the agency to lower its rating on the creditworthiness of the United States.”
How long before we see double digit rates on govies?
July 11th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Happy C
I don’t think kettle was suggesting that was a good thing. You’re going after the wrong guy.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Interesting NPR discussion claimed that illegals could be reason why the unemployment numbers are not as bad as they seem to be. Laid off illegals were never counted as employed anyway.
July 11th, 2008 at 11:59 am
sybarite
We dont have to pay (in a sense) we have the majority of the resources we need. The government supplies food shelter and health care in return for the work of the people. This could allow the US to rebuild its industrial base while providing for the people.
I am not nieve enough to think that it would be all puppy dogs and rainbows, but its a first run proposal.
The current level of corruption in the US government would probably kill any such plan thought due to graft in operation
July 11th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
#130 BC Bob
ivanscampground.com/
I recommend Ivan’s Stress Free Campground on Jost Van Dyke in the British Virgin Islands. Campsites are $20 a night. Bathrooms with fresh (cool)water showers included. Semi outdoor kitchen with stove and oven. There is an honor bar where you make your own drinks and keep your own tab. Soggy Dollar bar and restaurant down the beach serves up “Painkillers” if you don’t feel like making your own. Sing alongs just about every night with surpise guests- which have included Keith Richards, Jimmy Buffett and Kenny Chesney to name a few.
Hubby spent six weeks there after selling NJ house and business. I had to leave after 10 days- job related.
We’re contemplating spending all of next winter there.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
HC
I am not making any comments on the positive or negative aspects of illegal immigration ( not in this post at least)
I was simply pointing out that when a population comes under pressure for scarce recourses, that they will focus their anger on the perceived bad guy. Recent events and recent history show that illegal immigrants and immigrants in general are the first ones to bear the brunt of the anger.
i have not commented on the merits of such a reaction.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
oh, ok. didn’t know whether kettle was good or bad. i stick to Black Label myself.
HC
“njpatient Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Happy C
I don’t think kettle was suggesting that was a good thing. You’re going after the wrong guy.”
July 11th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
“Sing alongs just about every night with surpise guests- which have included Keith Richards, Jimmy Buffett and Kenny Chesney to name a few”
NJC [143],
If the Boss is scheduled to appear, let me know. I’m in.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
NJ coast 144,
i have been there an fully concur!!!
130 BC Bob,
find a country that has ample natural resources and is not heavily oil dependent (basically europe or the US). I would consider costa rica, beliezz or austraila.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
From todays WSJ: The Flaws in the FHA Housing Bill
“Lawmakers can say they’ve “done something” about the crisis. The only problem is the bill won’t work. Contractual and incentive problems in securitized mortgages will defeat the legislation’s attempt to provide a significant amount of relief.”
“For securitized loans, there is no “lender” who can write down the principal. Instead, management of the loan is contracted out to a servicer. Frequently, servicers are contractually forbidden from modifying loans or else significantly restricted in their ability to do so. This alone will prevent many mortgages from being eligible for FHA refinancing.”
“Even when servicers can modify loans, they have no incentive to do so for the FHA program. Servicers incur significant costs (up to $1,600) in modifying a loan. Moreover, servicers’ income is mainly based on the amount of principal outstanding in a securitization trust. When a loan leaves the pool because of a refinancing, the servicer ceases to receive revenue from it. Any equity appreciation in the property would be shared by the mortgage holder and the FHA, but not the servicer. In short, servicers have nothing to gain and everything to lose by engaging in the write-downs necessary for the FHA bill to work.”
“Another obstacle: Many homeowners have second mortgages, and many of these second mortgages are completely “underwater” — or out of money. The second mortgages are frequently held by different entities than the first mortgages. In order for the refinanced mortgage to be insured by FHA, the second mortgage holder would have to be bought out.Underwater second mortgagees (and many might be underwater even after a write-down on the first mortgage), have nothing to lose by holding out for a high payout and will block many refinancings. The FHA bill does not fix this problem.”
“Third, the FHA is not staffed to handle hundreds of thousands of refinancings, and neither are mortgage servicers (if they were willing to cooperate). It will take several months for the FHA program to hit full speed. In the meantime, foreclosures will continue, in the hundreds of thousands. The next Congress, in all likelihood, will have to revisit this problem — in 2009.”
“To the extent that lenders are willing and able to do the write-down necessary for the FHA refinancing, they will only do so for loans that they think are worth less than 85 cents on the dollar. Lenders will retain loans with a higher expected recovery rate. This means there is an adverse selection problem for the FHA refinancing. Lenders will only sell the FHA their worst lemons, so the FHA will be overpaying for bum loans.”
July 11th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
The biggest beneficiary of this bail out is really Friends of Dodd & Co not the struggling Home owner. The only loans that can get modified easily will be the ones still held with the banks and not the securitized ones.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
#142
“The government supplies food shelter and health care in return for the work of the people. This could allow the US to rebuild its industrial base while providing for the people.”
Might as well, since the government is about to repo a lot of shelters.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Hello all from the new office.
Going well with the transition, but busy. Only able to be here because most of the office is 4 days for the summer so it is pretty quiet.
I thought Pret worked for a Real Estate investment group. Was sent to the UK last year to look at commercial properties. Decided to go with Manchester from what I understood.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
O.K. whose been going long CAT, you depressing bunch of misanthropes.
Bulldoze Mcmansions. Hmmmppf.
Why that would be like….
WONDERFUL.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Don’t you dare get preachy with me. This whole crisis today can be attributed to a impolitic statement made by Bill Poole that Fannie & Freddie were already insolvent. A negative thought that has roiled the markets all day today.
The general celebratory mood here is almost like a victory celebration. That’s extremely shameful and sickening.
RentinginNJ Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 10:08 am
You terrorists wanted to see this happen so you did everything you possibly could to destroy the housing markets.
Should you ever decide to step out of your delusional fantasy world of “fighting terrorists” and engage in a serious discussion about the housing bubble and economic bubbles in general, you would find that the naysayers generally have very little impact on how a collapsing bubble unfolds.
In fact, history has shown that the naysayers generally contribute more to rising prices than they do the bubble’s collapse. Bubbles always last longer and prices go up further than most naysayers believe. As the early predictions of a collapse never materialize (the Economist in 2003, for example), the bears appear to be proven wrong again and again. This only serves to further embolden the bulls who take this evidence that “things really are different this time”.
By the time the bubble does actually burst, the bears have been dismissed by the speculative masses as “chicken littles” or having a case of sour grapes. After all, they didn’t have the financial acumen to recognize this brave new world where buying and selling houses from each other is the foundation of permanent economic prosperity
July 11th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
pat,
given how flimsy most mcmansions were built, a nice thermobaric bomb detonated over the center of the neighborhood would be much more effective! you could drop an entire development with 1 bomb
July 11th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
153,
Sigh, if only you were real Scarecrow.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Reuters
Paulson shoots down Fannie, Freddie bailout
I guess it’s a given now.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Are you speaking to me or would you like to? If you’d like to, you better learn some damn manners first. Don’t start anything you can’t finish.
morpheus Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 10:32 am
To Renting in NJ #94:
Hear, hear! I could not have said it better myself!
To the “little man” who is continuing his noble fight against the terrorist on this blog: Dude, lighten up. I do not condone the use of drugs, but in your case I will make the exception. I strongly urge you to self medicate to the point where you can at least form a coherent argument. Oh wait a minute; you have not made any arguments that I have seen in my months viewing this blog. In that case, put down the bong and have a beer. Trust me, you need to relax.
To the member of homeland security monitoring this blog: the preceding was only a joke and is should not be construed as anything actionable under law. But many a joke contains some kernel of truth
July 11th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Open letter to Re-investor 101:
Since you are obviously a smart individual, can you please explain how all the “negativity” on this board caused all the problems we are having in the Re market? Please explain how that caused the current implosion of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. After all, we are not the ones who took a bet that housing prices would continue to rise and we could always refinance our property later.
I must admit that I do find it ironic that one month after paying down the last of my student loan debt, there exists the probability that despite my excellent credit, there might not be any mortgage financing available for me.
Ah. Sweet irony
July 11th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Re 156:
Yeah right up there with his “strong dollar”
July 11th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
#153 - This whole crisis today can be attributed to a impolitic statement made by Bill Poole that Fannie & Freddie were already insolvent. A negative thought that has roiled the markets all day today.
So your problem isn’t that they are, in actuality, insolvent; just that someone would so indelicate as to mention it.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Let me tell you something, you’ve not earned the right to ask me one damn question until you exhibit some respect. I’m not taking any crap off some young fresh faced punk. Apologize to me first and then I’ll think about answering your question.
morpheus Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Open letter to Re-investor 101:
Since you are obviously a smart individual, can you please explain how all the “negativity” on this board caused all the problems we are having in the Re market? Please explain how that caused the current implosion of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. After all, we are not the ones who took a bet that housing prices would continue to rise and we could always refinance our property later.
I must admit that I do find it ironic that one month after paying down the last of my student loan debt, there exists the probability that despite my excellent credit, there might not be any mortgage financing available for me.
Ah. Sweet irony
July 11th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Poole needs to keep his damn thoughts to himself. He knew what he was doing to the markets.
toshiro_mifune Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
#153 - This whole crisis today can be attributed to a impolitic statement made by Bill Poole that Fannie & Freddie were already insolvent. A negative thought that has roiled the markets all day today.
So your problem isn’t that they are, in actuality, insolvent; just that someone would so indelicate as to mention it.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Talking heads “burning down the house” is the new Fannie Mae song.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
isnt the next step congress sweetening the pot enough for the loan servicers so that all parties involved will dump their garbage on the gov?
July 11th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
“This whole crisis today can be attributed to a impolitic statement made by Bill Poole that Fannie & Freddie were already insolvent.”
50.5,
The market had already determined this. Poole was simply icing on the cake. On the flip side, maybe a dagger in your heart. Depends on where one sits.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
10,990 is the current Dow average. I remember asking people on the board whether they thought I was nuts in thinking the Dow would end hit 11,000 before election day. Now I wonder if 10,500 or even 10,250 might be in sight. Just one shot across the bow of a ship in the Gulf may be enough to cause another oil price spike and, with it, a hammering of stock prices — except for Northrop, General Dynamics, Raytheon, and other defense contractors.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
re101,
you didnt answer the question. banking is essential built on trust. If the customers/stock holders of the bank do not trust its ability to service debts and depositors, then it deserves to fail.
Oh, and i am glad that you have gotten back into your troll groove1 welcome back
July 11th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
re: #139
Wow. “The report went so far as to say that a government bailout of Fannie or Freddie could force the agency to lower its rating on the creditworthiness of the United States”
That pretty much says it all.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Re-Investor 101:
Fresh faced punk? Thank you. I actually look good for a forty year old. Thank you for the compliment.
The only one who I believe is fresh faced is my little boy of 3.5 years.
Don’t start anything you can’t finish? Are you now making threats? Now that is funny!
So, most of us on this board, who lived within our means, and oh. . . .remembered the real estate market in the late 80’s and early 90’s and decided not to listen the BS that real estate agents and analysts were spewing are terrorists?
July 11th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Let’s take the Way-Back Machine to two years ago, 6/13/2006 to be exact.
Everyone expects a downward trend except Freddie (Hat tip x-underwriter)
U.S. mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said on Tuesday that rising interest rates would lead to a slowdown in the U.S housing market but added it did not expect the market to crash.
…
Syron said, however, that the U.S. housing market was unlikely to crash, despite fears of the effect of higher rates.
“We do not think that there will be a crash. We think that by and large, overall, nationally, there will be a material slowing of the rate of appreciation of housing prices, but not an absolute decline,” he said.
…
“There’s a lot of equity in these properties. We don’t think we’re very vulnerable from a credit position,” said Syron, although he added that 2006 was likely to be a “slower growing year” than 2005 in terms of Freddie Mac’s retained portfolio.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Here we go, Jim Cramer on CNBC saying “stay in stocks”
My Dad is 79 and just got his IRA statement, lost 7,000 in one quarter. Why he has so much in stocks is another question…my 401 lost about 200 bucks in the past 12 months….I temporarily moved to mostly cash, and will move back in later..but I am still dollar cost averaging in to some funds. What is wrong with moving to cash for the short term? If I left it the stock funds and lost 20%, i would have to gain back much more than that to be ahead. With cash, I can hold onto the 20% and buy back in on the downside..i think cash is king right now.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
167 shore guy..why can other countries be down 50% and not us? I believe we can go further, I think, if I am correct, 40% off the peak dow would give you 8,600. Could it be out of the realm of possibility?
July 11th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
but, but how can there be a recession if people are still camping out at night for a iphone.
/sarcasm_off
July 11th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
#163
“reinvestor101 Says:
July 11th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Poole needs to keep his damn thoughts to himself. He knew what he was doing to the markets.”
The truth hurts doesn’t it.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Poole was very outspoken about the systemic risk posed by Fannie and Freddie in the 05/06 period.
His statement, to me, seems nothing more than a big ol’ “I told you so”.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I posted this on the fool back on 3/1/08
http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/FRE/2025203/this-gse-had-to-restate-earnin.aspx
likestofocus (95.36) Submitted: 3/01/08 10:39 AM : Start Price: $24.62 FRE Score: 68.08
This GSE had to restate earning when times were good. it took years to unwind its curious accounting practices.
I wonder what’s going on behind the curtain as the housing bubble collapses? Possible future acronym for Freddie
Found out
Holding
Loans
Mortgagees
Can’t pay
LTF
July 11th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
#177 I picked it to underperform.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
#176 grim
I wish we had Poole instead of Bergabe ruining, I mean running the show..
July 11th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Or the classic:
“What are you gonna do, fire me?”
July 11th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Shore Guy, my call has been the the past yr or so that the Dow will fall below 10k probably in the 9,000 or so range if the recession is as bad as I think it is going to be so yes it is quite possible for markets to fall 30-40% off peak. I am kicking myself for not loading up on dxd at $47 per share in less than 3 months I would have gotten a 40% return.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
to Kettle1 at #168:
You are right, he did not answer the question.
I am sure I would have notice that, but the fresh-faced punk compliment demanded a response. I admit I can be little vain. Fresh faced=young, right?? This is almost like being carded at the liquor store where I tell the cashier that I love them for carding me.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
OMG, Rich, calm down. No, we are not having a morpheus versus Gary beauty contest.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
“The FDIC is in charge” was the verbal announcement ringing through the halls of IndyMac’s Pasadena offices. “Everyone show up for work on Monday.”
http://ml-implode.com/imploded/lender_IndyMacBancorp_2008-07-07.html
July 11th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
grown men waiting in line for a toy (iphone) during the middle of the workday is why I say bring on the Mexicans. they have got to be an improvement over this crap
July 11th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
reinvestor101 has lost his mind. It’s true there’s a bit too much schadenfreude here at times but to suggest that njrereport.com is somehow alligned with terrorists, or that this blog caused anything in the markets is delusional.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
173 No reason at all. Look what happened after 9-11.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Details, details, details. Besides, the arena is too important to close.
NEWARK, N.J. - The Prudential Center arena was closed Friday after city officials failed to receive proper documentation from the New Jersey Devils, the building’s owner, on improvements to be made to the smoke alarm system.
The decision to close the $380 million arena, which opened in October, was made around midnight by Neil Midtgard, the city’s construction official.
The Prudential Center has been operating under a temporary certificate of occupancy since opening in October 2007, which has been renewed at regular intervals.
According to Julien X. Neals, corporation counsel for Newark, the terms of the CO required the Devils to provide complete documentation on additional work scheduled to upgrade the smoke alarm system by midnight Thursday.
The Devils plan to add more smoke detectors to the building and upgrade a pressurization system in the stairwells that will more effectively ensure that smoke flows away from the stairs.
[Snip]
July 11th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Pat (183),
WHOA! No ones better loooking then Gary!
July 11th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
#154 rediaperwipe: the only thing shemaeful is you. And before you start with the toliet tissue stoty again,
let me just say, that at leat I use toliet tissue, as opposed to yourself.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I hate to admit it, but every time Gary spews, thanks to Rich, I now picture Jesus, with that cursing disorder John misspells.
July 11th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
50.5 is cracking under pressure.
50.5 - please call your therapist, I am getting concerned for your roommates in the homeless shelter.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
25.25 actually.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Per the earlier discussion:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25634971
Dow 9,500 and Waiting for Capitulation
Posted By:Allen Wastler
Topics:Stock Market
There’s a joke among news folks that two points make a trend. If it does, and of course it doesn’t, I heard an alarming one this morning: the Dow going down into the 9,500 zone.
It came from Ben Lichtenstein, president of TradersAudio.com, on “Squawk Box” this morning. I listen to it on my satellite radio as I drive in. He suggested if the Dow trips through 11,000 or lower, then 9,500 is a possibility too.
[Snip]
If this comes to pass before November, it is goodnight Irene to McCain and a boatload of Republicans will get swept out of the Senate. Then the real problems start.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
I concede that Gary is in all likelihood much better looking than me. With that settled, I hand him my tiara and scepter. Does that make him Mr. New Jersey Real Estate Report of 2008? I must have been asleep; I think I missed the talent competition and the swimsuit competition.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
#194 morpheus: gary’s interest are real estate of course. He enjoys long walks on the beach, and will strive for world peace.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Gary’s also a shoe-in for Mr. congeniality.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
# 80 It is already happening, for some people anyway. I have a friend who is now living in his basement ann is renting his bedrooms to assorted people. His business got hammered and he was overextended at the time. In order to keep the house this is what he had to do.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Are we officially in a Lewinski Market now?
July 11th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
grim Says:
Everyone expects a downward trend except Freddie (Hat tip x-underwriter)
Ahh, the good old days. That was when there was a legitimate debate as to what would happen to the housing market. Sorry reinvestor101, you lost your window of opportunity to have someone listen to you. Now you’re just the spokesperson for the desperate victims of the whole thing.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
knee pads on sale at walmart
July 11th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
#197 Shore - I think it will happen more and more. Huge house, kids gone, widow living alone having trouble with expenses. It will make sense for a lot of people. And boarding houses used to be fairly common and were respectable places for people to live. Let’s see, that was back in the thirties when the depression was in full force. Who was it who said history doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes?
July 11th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
I picture RE 101 in those new short pants with somes spats and suspenders to boot. But he is the king of free market capitalism so for that I give him some kudos and a big booo yaaaa.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
# 84/92 I am not even sure that this Autumn will be right. There are so many people, especially in OG (where ocean-view housing was dirt cheap even 15 years ago), bought homes at far below even recently-depressed values and have a mental block about losing the appreciated gain and who will not lose real dollars no matter how far prices drop (damn this is one run-on sentence) and are unwilling to lower prices to make sales; they will hang on and enjoy the proximity to the beach rather than sell. Others, who bought at the top, but who can afford to pay the mortgage, will not sell at realistic prices because they do not want to turn a paper loss into a realized loss. The folks who seem to be dropping prices are the banks that have taken-back properties and folks who have the wolf at the door and are looking to get away with something.
For many Shore residents, I don’t see them coming to grips with the need to drop prices until maybe May of next year. Why May? By then we should have several quarters of official recession, rental income may not be a sure bet for those counting on summer rentals to meet the mortgage, and the drag of continued high gas prices may reduce demand amongst commuters.
The sellers I have spoken with are still Panglossian in outlook, “Shore real estate is the best of all possible worlds.”
July 11th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
# 210 “knee pads on sale at walmart”
Is that what our “leaders” mean by jawboning our allies?
July 11th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
If Paulson announces that he is going overeseas to bring cigars to our allies, that’s it. I just hope he has the sense not to wear a blue dress, or at least to get it dry cleaned after the “jawboning” is done.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Gary is hot.
July 11th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
what is with this rally?
July 11th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
FRE up 5%?!
July 11th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Wachovia Sells Broadway Building in New York City at a Loss
A joint venture led by Wachovia Corp. agreed to sell a 21-story office building in midtown Manhattan’s garment district at a $41 million loss, people with knowledge of the decision said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=argZU2ttAB3E&refer=home
July 11th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
INSANE OPTIONS VOL JUST HAPPENED WATCH OUT
July 11th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
http://www.kpmginsiders.com/display_reuters2.asp?cs_id=222269
July 11th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Fed’s Bernanke Tells GSE Chief Freddie & Fannie Eligible for Federal Reserve’s Discount Window: Reuters
Here is the bailout!
July 11th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
You’ve got to be kidding. Can I go to the window?
July 11th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Yields on the 10yr up on bond sell-off.
July 11th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Freddie Mac chief Richard Syron that his company and Fannie Mae could take advantage of the emergency discount window, said a source familiar with a conversation between Bernanke and Freddie Mac chief Richard Syron.
Bernanke and Syron spoke by phone Thursday afternoon and in that call the central bank chief said he intended the discount window to be open to the two companies, said a source familiar with the phone conversation.
July 11th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
When that window opens, does it play the same song as the Mr. Softee truck?
July 11th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
BCBob #17:
I too want to be “creamated” - perhaps it is the new American death - people overextended on their loans suffocated in clouds of heavy cream or Haagen Dazs. No pain involved - which is what we all want.
(sounds like a taxpayer bailout to me)
July 11th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Pat,
I always thought the song would be the March of the Elephants.
Speaking of Mr. Softee, I had this idea a few years back to replace the annoying and oft-ignored car alarm siren with the Mr. Softee tune. This way, when someone tries to break in, the car will immediately be surrounded by children screaming, “ice cream and stop.”
July 11th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s…. oh, I’m sorry… I didn’t see you walk in! lol! :)
I love you all! :)
July 11th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Phew…market slowly realizing that the opening of the discount window means FNM/FRE are probably insolvent.
July 11th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
#217 Pat,
I think it plays Imagine with new words.
Imagine Fannie and Freddie were still solvent
Imagine all the people, living within their means
Nothing to heloc or charge for
Imagine there’s no granite or stainless too.
July 11th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Pat i believe that this is what you hear at the window
http://mama.indstate.edu/users/nizrael/midis/bigtop.mid
July 11th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
How about a new NAR campaign slogan?
“Buy it now, before all new mortgages vanish”
Heeeeeeee Heeeeeeeee
July 11th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
“Buy it now, before all new mortgages vanish”
Frank,
I would love it.
July 11th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
#222 frank
That’s beautiful.
July 11th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
the audicity of these politicians is just unbelievable. are we supposed to believe this type of thing is unrelated to the massive bailouts they are contemplating?
from the NYTimes:
*********
Toward the end of his news conference, Mr. Rangel suggested that it was absurd that he should be criticized, asking rhetorically whether he should place an ad in a newspaper asking, “Is there any place I can get this at a higher price because there’s some crazy reporter who thinks I have a good deal?”
After Mr. Rangel walked away, reporters followed him, and a Times reporter, Jeremy W. Peters, asked the congressman why he did not disclose his rent discounts on his financial disclosure reports. Mr. Rangel’s reply was testy: “Paying the legal rent is not a gift. Are you doing this deliberately, or are you just stupid?”
July 11th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
we call it balls
July 11th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
and rangel is in the same leauge as the rest of them
shake down artists.
where’s carla when we need her?
July 11th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Kettle, I’m picturing Bergabe in one of those white paper hats, handing out big popco