I, For One, Welcome Our New Mortgage Overlords

From the LA Times:

Fed slaps new rules on mortgage lenders

The Federal Reserve clamped down hard on mortgage lenders Monday, issuing rules designed to curb the sorts of risky and deceptive lending practices that helped trigger the subprime mortgage crisis.

The Fed’s action, although criticized by some for not going far enough, was widely seen as a crucial step in reasserting control over a financial market that had been allowed to run wild.

“There’s lots more to come,” said Thomas Lawler, a former Fed official who is now a housing market consultant. “The pendulum is clearly swinging toward more regulation and more government involvement.”

The central thrust of the new rules is to restore sound underwriting practices, such as requiring lenders to verify that borrowers actually have the income and assets to make their loan payments.

The regulations adopted Monday were significantly stiffer than draft proposals issued six months ago, reflecting regulators’ intensifying concern over the fallout from the free-for-all lending that helped create the bubble in home values and led to the mortgage meltdown.

In adopting the new rules on mortgage lending, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke traced the lenders’ woes back to their own practices.

“Although the high rate of delinquency has a number of causes, it seems clear that unfair or deceptive acts and practices by lenders resulted in the extension of many loans, particularly high-cost loans, that were inappropriate for or misled the borrower,” Bernanke said in a statement.

The new rules take effect Oct. 1 and will apply to all mortgage lenders, brokers, servicers and banks, not just those already regulated by the central bank.

“These rules are a step forward in returning common-sense business practices to the subprime lending market,” said Paul Leonard, director of the California office of the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonprofit advocacy group.

The Fed’s final version of the regulations were much more stringent than draft proposals issued late last year. The new rules include four measures aimed at targeting abuses in the subprime mortgage market, which has been largely unregulated because the loans are securitized and held by private investors.

Reinhart of the American Enterprise Institute said the rules also reflected an about-face from the relaxed attitude toward mortgage lending that prevailed under former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

“Alan Greenspan believed in the light hand of regulation. How he put that in place was in not moving at all, and that turns out not to be desirable,” Reinhart said. “So now the government is taking an active role.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

375 Responses to I, For One, Welcome Our New Mortgage Overlords

  1. RPatrick says:

    This benefits most of you with much higher incomes ( upper 25%) when you show up for the fire sale pre-approved.

    The blue collar people are screwed.

  2. grim says:

    IMHO, these regulations sharply minimize any possibility of a quick recovery over the next few years. Forcing lenders to verify assets and ensure repayment will pull a good number of potential buyers from the market.

  3. RPatrick says:

    2, True. But for most of the people who post here it seems that pulling buyers reduces demand. The JD’s, high earners, ect. here with 30-50K down payment are still going to get loans. Mortgages are still a very profitable product.

    The paranoid part of my mind thinks that is is yet another wealth consolidation tactic. Because holding property is the true form of making long term wealth.

    All the truly very comfortable people I know have large holdings of RE. In a year or two it may be time to start acquiring an RE position.

  4. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Mortgage Insurers Raise Bar
    Potential Home Buyers
    Face Stricter Standards,
    Higher Costs
    By AMY MERRICK
    July 15, 2008; Page A1

    Mortgage insurers have been dramatically tightening their standards throughout the U.S., further squeezing potential home buyers.

    Stung by growing defaults, lenders are offering borrowers fewer ways to avoid purchasing private mortgage insurance. Mortgage insurance, required for buyers who are unable to make a full down payment or who have insufficient credit histories, reimburses lenders in the event of a borrower default. But over the past few months, mortgage insurers have been declaring more and more of the U.S. a “declining market,” raising the requirements and making such insurance harder to obtain. The result: another hurdle for home buyers, and yet another wrenching change for the struggling housing market.

    While it’s difficult to gauge the severity of the impact, industry executives concede insurers’ tighter standards are affecting the market. At ShoreBank Corp., a community-development bank with branches in Chicago, Cleveland and other cities, the insurers’ tighter standards are “wreaking havoc,” says Michelle Collins, director of mortgage lending. For a popular conventional loan package, “easily 70% of the previous set of borrowers will not be able to buy,” she adds.

    The spreading restrictions are a symptom not only of the housing and credit crisis but of the mortgage-insurance industry’s own huge losses. The insurers face massive borrower defaults on loans that were approved when securing a mortgage was far easier.

    Michael Zimmerman, a spokesman for industry leader MGIC Investment Corp., says, “So far, we’re only losing the business that we no longer want to write. The long-term objective of anybody in the housing industry should not be just affordability but sustainability. I think for the last few years, the drive and the focus have been solely on affordability.”

  5. Laughing all the way says:

    Grim, you’ve been awful quiet lately … purchasing a new place, perhaps?

    Also, im curious as to your valued opinion on these two posts:

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/07/14/short-sale-salvation/#comment-200990

    Take a look at what has been happening in emerging markets recently. Then add up all of the economic bad news, $150 oil, $950 gold and enormous personal debt with diminishing wages, increasing job losses, declining sentiment and peoples housing wealth evaporating. Throw in local property tax increases and the commodity boom with it’s inherent impact on core and non-core inflation and you have one serious recipe for disaster. Market declines of only 20% may be just the tip of the iceberg.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/07/14/short-sale-salvation/#comment-200896

    The bubble years are considered to be from January 2002 to July 2006 when the national composite index hit its peak. From the peak the NY metro area has fallen -9.9%. If it falls another -35.4% it will hit the Jan 2002 (pre-boom) level. So I guess, if you account for what would have been historically a normal appreciation for housing I would consider another 20% drop in the NY metro area a fair point to dip you’r toes in the water. The wild card is the job losses happening in the NY metro area, I guess we can see a bigger drop in the next year. Me personally, I’ll take about 25% drop from the peak as a point to start making offers.

  6. Laughing all the way says:

    grim, in mod?

  7. grim says:

    So much for trying to catch a falling knife..

    Washington Mutual Drop Wipes Out Most of TPG Holding

    TPG Inc.’s plan to profit from Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. savings and loan, may be sinking with the housing market.

    The private-equity firm, led by David Bonderman, anchored a $7 billion cash injection into Washington Mutual in April by purchasing stock at a discount. The Seattle-based lender’s share price has since plummeted, wiping out two-thirds of the investment’s value.

    Washington Mutual tumbled to the lowest since 1991 yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, leading the drop in home lenders after IndyMac Bancorp Inc. was seized last week by U.S. regulators. Bonderman’s firm, which invested $2 billion in Washington Mutual for a 13 percent stake, has been stung by record foreclosures, particularly in California, home to half of the bank’s loans.

  8. njrebear says:

    Why bother about TPG when we have our own Pret and bi?

  9. RentinginNJ says:

    Better buy now before the new restrictions take effect in October!

    Otherwise you might never be able to buy!

    /sarcasm off

  10. Pat says:

    James, I hope you’re joking.

  11. thatBIGwindow says:

    #10: Couldn’t that be true?

  12. njrebear says:

    more like …

    Otherwise you might never want to buy!

  13. BC Bob says:

    How about 28% of gross income must cover piti and 36%, total monthly obligations. In addition to this, you must prove that you have available funds for closing and 6 months of emergency funds.

    Everything that dies someday comes back.

  14. BC Bob says:

    JB [7],

    ???

  15. BC Bob says:

    “Euro records aren’t typos”

    “Commentary: Dollar bulls had it wrong underestimating U.S. housing drop”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/marketwatch-first-take-euro-record/story.aspx?guid=%7BB278544A%2D16A9%2D4CD5%2D9A47%2D8E4967A098DC%7D&dist=hplatest

  16. sas says:

    Important enough from tailends of yesterday’s post.

    “Asphalt shortage delays CDOT projects”
    http://tinyurl.com/5fv3k8

  17. sas says:

    A post from Diane:

    I work in the transportation field. Have not heard of an asphalt shortage, but the prices are very high now, driving up the cost of construction.

    http://www.state.nj.us/transportation/business/trnsport/PriceIndex.shtm

  18. sas says:

    curious, if anyone else in th field can sound off on the asphalt shortage and prices, and how its effecting construction projexts??

    that would be a good topic of much interest.

    thanks,

    SAS

  19. sas says:

    “Why Fannie and Freddie Have Doomed Housing Prices, Regardless of Bailouts”
    http://tinyurl.com/5vs4b3

  20. Laughing all the way says:

    JB – Hope you’re kidding.
    Best of luck.

  21. thatBIGwindow says:

    Why would anyone joke about that?

  22. sas says:

    “Euro soars to $1.60 against U.S. dollar, a new record high”
    http://tinyurl.com/65gtxq

  23. HEHEHE says:

    Sas,

    I worked on a road maintenance crew in college filling potholes. Day started off with 30 minutes of poker. Ride to asphalt plant. Stop for breakfast. Get to apshalt plant. Play cards for 30 minutes while waiting in line. Get blacktop and fill pot holes for a couple hours. Long lunch. Back to asphalt plant. 30 minutes of poker. Fill potholes for an hour, dump rest in a ditch, find a secluded road around 3:00 pm and disappear. Play cards for another hour. Return to station. Clean up. Play cards for 30-40 minutes. Call it a day.

    This is where I learned my mantra for life “Work a little, take a little break, work a little, take a little break”.

  24. sas says:

    “Lehman CEO mulls ways to take bank private: report”
    http://tinyurl.com/6lyajp

    *there is spin in this article– SAS

    “The company has been the subject of false rumors in the past, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether investors have looked to profit by spreading rumors to push down the company’s shares.”

  25. BC Bob says:

    From Mish;

    “How Much Uninsured Deposits Are At Risk?”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  26. BC Bob says:

    The rout on the dollar continues. It’s the single most important issue and nobody seems to care. It’s actually quite sad. We allow these thieves to bury our purchasing power. How do you feel every day, knowing that you have to make more just to keep up with a depreciating, dying currency? Our standard of living is decaying and it’s a result of the dollar. Our fed/treasury/govt should be hung out to dry.

    The dollar represents the stock of your country. It’s your money, a medium of exchange of payments. While corp ex’s have brought our financial system to its knees, our policy makers have absolutely buried middle America. They have ruined lives. Until the stock of your country appreciates, you will just be spinning like mad hamsters.

  27. Frank says:

    grim, may not agree with me, but WSJ does.

    The $4 Billion Senator July 15, 2008; Page A18

    The federal takeover of IndyMac Bank over the weekend could cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. between $4 billion and $8 billion. But Senator Chuck Schumer, who helped to precipitate the collapse by publicizing a letter to the bank’s regulator last month, has no remorse.

    He was, he says, just doing his job in telling regulators that the bank “could face a collapse,” a prophecy that quickly proved to be self-fulfilling. “It’s what legislators are supposed to do,” the New York Democrat told the Journal. Depositors who spent Monday trying to recover some of their money might beg to differ.
    [Charles Schumer]

    The Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), whose job it actually was to regulate IndyMac, took a different view. “The immediate cause of the closing,” the OTS wrote in a press release, “was a deposit run that began and continued after the public release of a June 26 letter to the OTS and the FDIC from Senator Charles Schumer of New York.” The OTS added: “In the following 11 business days, depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from their accounts.”

    Mr. Schumer now argues that OTS was asleep at the switch, and that blaming him is like blaming “the fire on the guy who called 911.” In fact, it’s blaming the guy who poured on the gasoline. Very few banks, if any, would remain standing for long in the current tense financial environment after a Senator, in effect, told its depositors to run for the exits. In the 1930s, such tipsters were derided as rumormongers and often faced indictment for encouraging depositors to stampede banks.

    Only last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced an investigation into the role of rumor-peddlers in the run on Bear Stearns. We somehow doubt that Mr. Schumer will receive similar SEC scrutiny for his very similar role in bringing about a liquidity crisis at IndyMac. But he may be more deserving.

    Last week, Mr. Schumer’s Senate colleague Chris Dodd took the spotlight to insist that everything was fine, just fine, at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For how that turned out, see here. In its own way, Mr. Dodd’s declaration was as irresponsible as Mr. Schumer’s, given that its goal was to protect the companies from greater regulatory scrutiny of the kind long proposed by the Bush Administration.

    Of course, it is much easier to talk a bank out of existence, as Mr. Schumer has now done, than to talk Fannie and Freddie into solvency. And no one is pretending that IndyMac was untroubled before Mr. Schumer wrote his letter. The bank had suffered heavy losses in its mortgage portfolio and was openly seeking new private capital to shore up its balance sheet.

    But Mr. Schumer was not content merely to share his profound concern with regulators. He also leaked the June 26 letter to the press – which is more like shouting “fire” in a crowded bank than dialing 911.

  28. Clotpoll says:

    Ah, another day of tilling the garden of human misery.

    I have noticed lately, though, that every time I call a bank’s loss mit department, I get a ready, willing and cheerful person at the other end of the call.

    I think a lot of lenders are about to start approving short sales as fast as they can.

  29. sas says:

    “The rout on the dollar continues. It’s the single most important issue and nobody seems to care. It’s actually quite sad”

    hear…hear!!
    (rules of parliment)

    SAS

  30. sas says:

    Oil rises above $146 a barrel
    http://tinyurl.com/5cjxqk

    a weakening of the dollar helped to support commodity prices Tuesday. Many investors view oil and other commodities as hedges against inflation and a weakening dollar, and their prices tend to rise as the currency declines.

  31. CB in SJ says:

    Re: #2 Grim: This was how it was done in the days of yore. When I applied for my first mortgage in 1987 I had to provide the last 2 years of tax returns, several recent pay stubs, information about my cars (if you had really old cars it would reflect badly, I was told, because they were worried I’d go for a car loan after settlement). They did a net worth calculation and called my employer to verify employment. Since I was only putting 10% down, I had to get private mortgage insurance. Then waited for several weeks nervously hoping I’d get approved, with the mortgage processor calling every few days needing some additional documentation. This all seems so Draconian now, but was once considered SOP for getting a mortgage.

  32. John says:

    Some tibits from a citigroup analyst

    To become more constructive on the financial sectors, we would like to see the
    following indicators turn positive:
    􀀀 House prices stop falling and housing inventories decline;
    􀀀 The unemployment rate stops rising;
    􀀀 Nonperforming assets/bad loan charge-off ratios stabilize;
    􀀀 Credit card charge-off rates plateau;
    􀀀 Financials stop the endless rounds of equity raises (because they have
    enough capital, not because investors go on strike); and
    􀀀 For the brokers, issuance picks up significantly in the junk bond market and
    M&A volumes rise.
    Unfortunately, these indicators are heading in the wrong direction at present.
    Citigroup’s economists expect housing prices to fall 23% from peak to trough, which
    implies an additional 8% decline

  33. Clotpoll says:

    BC (28)-

    “The rout on the dollar continues. It’s the single most important issue and nobody seems to care.”

    Nobody understands, either. Why take the time to brush up on the simple math required to have some understanding of basic economics, when you need to score Pocono 500 tickets, take advantage of your 2-for-1 WalMart pork rind coupons and find some time to figure out how to activate the I-Phone you wasted a day waiting for?

  34. BC Bob says:

    CB {33],

    I went thru the same in 1985, They put a scope up your #ss. They made a big issue of one late payment my wife had when she was 18, a monthly membership fee at a gym, 45 days late. They made us twist and turn over that.

  35. grim says:

    Thanks for the support everybody..

    Turns out that trying to hold down two full-time jobs, a part-time MBA, and being a fanatical blogger might not be compatible with a relationship. But I’m not sure I know any other way to live, I’ve always had big goals and a need to push myself, just who I am. Can’t stop moving forward, so I’ll hold my head up and just keep moving. Am I selfish? Was I wrong? Did I change for the worse somewhere along the way? Was it even me at all? I suppose that it’s tough not to tear yourself apart at times like this.

    You know, I considered shutting the blog down a few days back. The “sabbatical” day was particularly rough.

    The amazing part of all of this is the support I’ve gotten from friends I haven’t seen in years (6, to be exact). Likewise, thanks to everyone here that has helped me out. That last-minute GTG a few weeks back was a big help for me.

    On a happier note, Saturday was a revelation for me, good things to come, I’m looking forward.

    Is it weird that I’m sharing this on a blog? Could be worse, could have written a front-page story about it.

  36. BC Bob says:

    John [34],

    That Citi analyst should have also included that he would like Gisele delivered to his front door tonight.

  37. John says:

    Hope I have time to watch all star game with all this fun going on. Companies set to report later this week include Citigroup Inc. (C), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), PNC Financial Services Inc. (PNC), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), State Street Corp. (STT), Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI), Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) and Zions, according to Thomson StreetEvents.

  38. BC Bob says:

    “That last-minute GTG a few weeks back was a big help for me.”

    JB,

    Let’s have another.

  39. njpatient says:

    7 grim

    Awfully sorry

  40. Sean says:

    Yup dollar is still tanking and Bergabe is testifying for the next two on the hill days about it.

    I have been writing our reps, hopefully one will grow a set of nuts.

    Ron Paul tried to rip into Kink and Bergabe last week but that lisping thespain from the bay state cut him off.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ritv_YrCJak

  41. grim says:

    Awfully sorry

    No, no, Good things, nothing down or pessimistic. Life has got a funny way of making things work out for the better.

    And it already has.

  42. Clotpoll says:

    grim (37)-

    “Could be worse, could have written a front-page story about it.”

    Then, you’d be Casey Serin. Which you are not.

    Hang in there. All of us here have your back. Please take time when you need it. There are plenty of us here who can fill the void with our own special brand of drivel.

    I- for one- would like to see much more commentary on beer and hot dog joints.

  43. BC Bob says:

    OUCH;

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. retail sales rose a disappointing 0.1% in June despite nearly $50 billion in stimulus checks for consumers, Commerce Department data released Tuesday revealed. Sales were boosted by higher prices for gasoline, food and other consumer goods. The figures are seasonally adjusted but are not adjusted for inflation. It was the weakest sales since February’s 0.2% decline. Sales in June were held back by the biggest drop in auto sales in more than two years. By contrast, sales at the malls and shopping centers were relatively healthy, stimulated by the tax rebate checks, Excluding the 3.3% drop in auto sales, sales rose 0.8%, the slowest in three months.

  44. John says:

    OMFG B4 the CC LEH used 2b QT, CB BNKRPT b4 2MORO, xoxo”

  45. HEHEHE says:

    Grim,

    Just went through one and it wasn’t easy but in the end you learn a lot about yourself. Go slow and take care of yourself first is my only advice.

    Ps. Be glad you don’t have a mcmansion/condo you overpaid for and had to dump in this lousy market.

  46. grim says:

    I- for one- would like to see much more commentary on beer

    Spent 6 hours at McSorleys on Sunday, 6 of us in total, I stopped counting after 140 dark.

  47. Clotpoll says:

    BC (45)-

    Isn’t payment on debt a “sale”? ;)

  48. AntiTrump says:

    Feel the Whoo hoo!™

    * To overdraft is human. To waive one is WaMulian. Open WaMu Free Checking™ online

  49. thatBIGwindow says:

    Good thing you didn’t buy a house Jim…

  50. Clotpoll says:

    Trump (50)-

    Smells like Northern Rock.

  51. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. producer prices gain 1.8% in June, energy prices surge

    Wholesale prices rose 1.8% in June, after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices gaining 6% and food prices rising 1.5%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the producer price index to rise 1.4%. In the past year, the PPI gained 9.2% — the largest change since June 1981, the government said. June’s core PPI — which excludes food and energy prices — rose 0.2%, while economists had expected a 0.3% rise. In the past year, core prices rose 3%.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    grim (48)-

    6 hours in that place might cause genetic damage.

  53. CB in SJ says:

    #36: Oh yes, I too had a late payment and I had to write an “explanation letter” for the underwriter on why this happened. They were very stern about such shenanigans. Boy, how the world has changed! By the way, I paid $77,000 for the house, a three bedroom single family home, from the builder in a new development here in South Jersey.

    Grim: I am very sorry; best of luck to you during these trying times.

  54. BC Bob says:

    I.O.U.S.A, coming to cinemas next month. Pete Peterson has now picked it up.

    http://www.agorafinancial.com/iousa.html

  55. Sean says:

    Grim, – I know lots of whores if you get lonely they all live in the 07030 zip code. The only issue with them besides the high mileage is the annoying pocket dogs they all carry.

  56. Cindy says:

    (28) BC Bob – You are my hero!

  57. BC Bob says:

    “Spent 6 hours at McSorleys on Sunday”

    A GTG location?

  58. Cindy says:

    (37) Grim –

    We are who we are…
    We love you…

  59. rhymingrealtor says:

    Jim,

    Sorry about your life upheaval,please keep in mind woman have a tendency to try to change the very characteristics we admired the most, for no other reason then they are inconvenient to us at the moment. Don’t beat yourself up.

    KL

  60. Clotpoll says:

    BC (60)-

    Most assuredly.

  61. BC Bob says:

    Sean [58],

    Lyndhurst?

  62. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [59],

    At some point there will be a panic out of the US dollar. It will make Bear/Freddie/Indy, etc.., seem like a dress rehearsal.

    All Disclaimers.

  63. grim says:

    I’ve never been much of a rebound-kind-of-guy. Besides, my boxer would tear apart those little rodents. She’s a rescue out of Irvington who was used to train pit-bulls to fight. Lets just say that she doesn’t put up with yap.

  64. 3b says:

    #36 BC Bob: We had to write an explanation for a 30 day late Macy’s bill. We were on our honeymoon, and just simply forgot about it.

  65. 3b says:

    #37 grim: Best of luck to you. I am truly sorry for your pain, but it will pass.

  66. thatBIGwindow says:

    Lyndhurst has great places to eat…

    Angelo’s, Mr Brunos, Lyndhurst Pastry Shop (Italian Ices), Mazur’s…

  67. Stu says:

    Grim (37):

    “Turns out that trying to hold down two full-time jobs, a part-time MBA, and being a fanatical blogger might not be compatible with a relationship. But I’m not sure I know any other way to live, I’ve always had big goals and a need to push myself, just who I am. Can’t stop moving forward, so I’ll hold my head up and just keep moving. Am I selfish? Was I wrong? Did I change for the worse somewhere along the way? Was it even me at all? I suppose that it’s tough not to tear yourself apart at times like this.”

    I have two things to say. First of all, if it was meant to be, then it was meant to be. Speaking from personal experiences, some time apart is the only true way you’ll know where your heart is. By acting on your feelings rather than suppressing them, you can turn what might have been years of guilt into years of bliss. This is no easy task, but it is the best path to follow.

    Secondly, a late great philosopher (and professional diver) once said, “You must always look out for #1, and avoid stepping in #2!”

    Hang in there buddy. You have more good friends than you know. And probably a few that you may have to end up pursuing restraining orders against. ;)

  68. Fiddy Cents on the $1.01x says:

    jb-

    Hang in there, you know you can call on us if’n you need anything. At the next GTG, your drinks 1 thru 5 are on me….provided you can verify your assets and income;-)

  69. thatBIGwindow says:

    #66: Aren’t you afraid the dog will snap one day and bite off a limb?

  70. Housing Purgatory says:

    Grim,
    Sorry to here that things aren’t working out for you.. It’s a rough process to go through. some rougher than others.. I myself had to go through 2 years of legal Hell. but it was worth it in the end. I’m a much happier person now. Now if only the economy would come out of this slump so I could finish paying for it.

    True Friends are always the best way to get through times that are tough and true friends will let you lean as hard as you want to until you can stand on your own.

    Good luck.
    I know you will have good things happen for you.

  71. grim says:

    re:dog

    I love Bergen County so much, I named my dog after a town.

    http://njrereport.com/images/alpine.jpg

  72. grim says:

    #66: Aren’t you afraid the dog will snap one day and bite off a limb?

    Nah, she is a lover. Best dog I’ve ever seen with kids. She really just thinks she is a person.

  73. thatBIGwindow says:

    Sounds prestigious

  74. Pat says:

    That is one sorry-ass looking dog.

  75. Cindy says:

    (62) rhyming – so true
    Our assets can kick us in the teeth and be our liabilities – two sides of the same coin.

    (65) BC Bob

    I am such an optimist. I just know there is someone over there who can get a grip on this mess…any day now…they just have to.

  76. Pat says:

    I think it’s the Boy-George makeup.

  77. Pat says:

    You know I love that dog, right?

  78. Stu says:

    BC Bob:

    Today could be a pretty ugly one. With the dollar hitting a record low against the Euro, oil probably reaching another record high, and sprinkle in some negative earnings reports such as GM cutting their dividend (they are so done), the only savior may be another Bergabe lie as he testifies on the Hill.

    Anyone see the FDIC chairs comments on the safety of U.S. banks. It wreaks of the optimism found in the pre-Great Depression quotes many of us have witnessed as pull out quotes on 1930’s time lines.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/fdic_banks.html

  79. Outofstater says:

    #44 Re: Drivel. Yeah, Mitchell and I can always talk about the South. (Ducking and covering now:)
    Seriously, things do have a way of turning out for the best.

  80. grim says:

    Sounds prestigious

    Snarky and insulting to the town, just the way I like it. The dog is a complete reject, left for dead. Newark PD brought her into the hospital bleeding, ear almost torn off, bite marks all over her head, neck and front legs. She had been crying on someones porch, no doubt after being dumped when it was clear she had little chance of survival. Not to mind the fact that white boxers are usually killed by the breeders, since pure whites in the line are looked upon negatively. Completely unpedigree and sorry looking. I’ve always been a fan of the underdog.

  81. kettle1 says:

    last minute GTG to see DARK NIGHT in IMAX this weekend?????

  82. thatBIGwindow says:

    poor dog :(

    people can really be disgusting. No regard for life at all.

  83. bairen says:

    ““Alan Greenspan believed in the light hand of regulation. How he put that in place was in not moving at all, and that turns out not to be desirable,” Reinhart said. “So now the government is taking an active role.”

    Even more evidence of what a fraud Greenspin is. He repeatedly set interest rates artificially low.

  84. bairen says:

    grim,

    Sorry to hear the news.

  85. grim says:

    people can really be disgusting. No regard for life at all.

    I think the term is “bait dog”, or at least that is how it was explained to me. They take timid dogs who won’t retaliate and use them to instill confidence in the other dog.

    So yes, incredibly brutal.

  86. NNJ says:

    thatBIGwindow, are you vegetarian?

    grim, sorry to hear about your situation.

  87. bairen says:

    #89 grim,

    That’s really disgusting. What is wrong with people?

  88. thatBIGwindow says:

    90: NNJ – to torture any animal (used for food or not) for personal enjoyment is disgusting.

  89. RayC says:

    Grim,

    Good to hear you are being so positive in tough times – and you do have a few hundred shoulders to lean/cry on if you want to.

    Ray

  90. NNJ says:

    92: You really should ‘meet your meat’, will give you new prespective on torture.

  91. make money says:

    Grim,

    Nice to hear that you remain positive through tough times. Best of luck.

    MM

  92. John says:

    Actually a lot of people who separate get back together so this may just be a bump in the road, don’t let it get ugly otherwise you may end up the bump in the road as she drives over you in an SUV.

  93. John says:

    down a 100 in the dow already and it is only 9:33

  94. Grim – Hope things work out the best for.

  95. bairen says:

    If the fed had put in these new regulations a few years ago, we wouldn’t be in as big a mess as we are now. Instead they let neg arms, no docs, and other toxic loans flood the marketplace.

    Now banks are taking hundreds of billions in charges, 401k plans are being crushed, and millions of people will lose their jobs because of the contraction of credit and collapse of the dollar.

    Thank you Alan Greenspan. Without you $4 gas and 500k pos capes wouldn’t have been possible.

    Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?

  96. John says:

    Citigroup
    Last [Tick] 14.65[ + ]
    Change -0.57
    % Change -3.75%

  97. skep-tic says:

    anyone catch Ackman on Squawk Box this morning? this hosts were like, “Wait, you’re saying Fannie Mae stock could go to zero?!”

  98. #99 Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?

    No.
    I’m adding a Mini-14 to that list, seriously.

  99. chicagofinance says:

    grim: a shot for medicinal purposes goes down in respect at 9:45AM

  100. Fed adding $9.5 bil in overnight repos.

  101. Victorian says:

    Grim –

    Wish you all the very best. The dog came back from almost the dead with the help of good people like you – that is good karma.

  102. skep-tic says:

    #25

    “I worked on a road maintenance crew in college filling potholes.”

    same here. you described it exactly. although sometimes we would drive to the beach and look at girls for a couple of hours as well.

  103. make money says:

    Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?

    I say we rent a warehouse together and make a project out of this. A serious insurance policy is needed at times like these.

    We could start an LLC and have grim and BC be managing partners. I hate partners but for some reason I trust both of them.

  104. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ho-Ho-Kus Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 19 LAKEWOOD AVE $472,000 9/18/2000

    Orig. List: $649,900 11/13/2006
    Last List: $487,000 3/26/2008
    SOLD: $457,500 7/11/2008

  105. Stu says:

    I don’t trust BC so much. He would put all our money in gold ;)

  106. grim, I’m sorry to hear about your trouble.
    There is more I would say, but not here.
    Best wishes to both of you.

  107. Al says:

    make money Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 9:47 am
    Am I crazy for thinking about stocking up on a few hundred pounds of flour, rice, powdered milk, canned and dried goods?

    I say we rent a warehouse together and make a project out of this. A serious insurance policy is needed at times like these.

    We could start an LLC and have grim and BC be managing partners. I hate partners but for some reason I trust both of them.

    I am in. We will need to hire Clot and John as an Armed Guards….

  108. njpatient says:

    “Best dog I’ve ever seen with kids.”

    The Little Patients thought so.

  109. skep-tic says:

    #37

    on the bright side, there are tons of hot chicks in Poland.

  110. Stu says:

    Yahoo Finance Headlines:

    * Euro Soars to Record High of $1.60 Against Dollar- AP
    * Analyst Warns on Wachovia Amid More Bank Worries- AP
    * GM to Cut Salaried Workers, Production, Dividend- AP
    * Retail sales Edge Up Slight 0.1 Percent in June- AP
    * Oil Rises Above $146 a Barrel- AP
    * Fannie-Freddie Lifeline Puts Taxpayers on the Hook- AP
    * Wholesale Prices Rise by Sharp 1.8 Percent in June- AP
    * J&J Profit Beats Forecast, But Drug Sales Dim- Reuters
    * FDIC Chair: Deposits in Nation’s Banks are Safe- AP

    And people call us Gloom and Doom?

  111. x-underwriter says:

    Grim,
    I don’t remember if you have kids or not. If not, it’s much easier. My brother is in a situation where whatever direction he takes, it will be an ugly road…staying with her in purgatory or living in the hills in Bedminster while she gets the big house and he pays for it all with visitation.
    All I can say is follow your heart. If doing all your things are more important to you than your marriage, then so be it. Just make sure you don’t do anything that you will regret down the road.

  112. NYtoNJ09 says:

    Can someone provide me the history of this property? MLS# 2814439

    Thanks in advance.

  113. Rich In NNJ says:

    Franklin Lakes FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 476 PULIS AVE $430,000 7/5/2005

    MLS#: 2829458 (Short sale)
    Orig. List: $619,900 9/4/2005 (Renovated!)
    Last List: $399,000 7/14/2008

  114. Stu says:

    Freddie, Fanny and Wachovia are in freefall. C is in the 114s.

  115. jam says:

    [43] Sounds like you didn’t get your first invoice for legal services.

  116. thatBIGwindow says:

    $399,000 for Franklin Lakes???? wow…

  117. make money says:

    Freddie, Fanny and Wachovia are in freefall. C is in the 114s.

    Did I mention that I love Jim Rogers for calling Hanks bluf.

    He said FU Hank, you of all people should know better, I’m short and staying short. What are you gonna do about it?

    apparently he can’t do jack.

  118. Dsmooth says:

    #96, I actually agree with John. I hope it works out for you Jim and besides its always ‘cheaper to keep her’

  119. jam says:

    I’m closing today after being homeless for 1 year.
    I figured when I sold at the top, anytime I bought after the market started droping would be great.
    Only time will tell.

  120. 3b says:

    #128 jam: figured when I sold at the top, anytime I bought after the market started droping would be great.

    ?????

  121. 3b says:

    #124 tbw $399,000 for Franklin Lakes???? wow…

    And you thought it could not happen. Oh Ye of little faith.

  122. 3b says:

    #118 Stu: don’t you know according to reinvestor, we are the casue of all of this?

  123. 3b says:

    #112 Rich: So they owned the hosue for 8 years,a nd did nto make a dime

    So much for real estate always goes up.

  124. thatBIGwindow says:

    3b: new ranch just came on the market in RE on Valley $439,000. Estate, Concrete backyard, but clean looking house.

    Townhouses on Kinderkamack still on the market.

  125. jam says:

    [129] I sold a 2 bedroom cape in a third/fourth tier town last summer for more than that Franklin Lakes home is going for now.

  126. Stu says:

    3b (131):

    Yeah. Bernanke had nothing on it.

  127. syncmaster says:

    grim,

    Good luck!

  128. Stu says:

    Dow down 200.

  129. Al says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aakESFNZea0c&refer=home

    Bernanke Sees Growth Risks, `Intensified’ Inflation Danger

    He cited higher energy prices, reduced access to credit and a further deepening in the housing recession as dangers to growth. At the same time, he said: “We must be particularly alert to any indications, such as an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations, that the inflationary impulses from commodity prices are becoming embedded” in setting wages and prices.

    Rate Decision

    The comments are Bernanke’s first on monetary policy and the economic outlook since the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 25 decision to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, pausing after seven cuts totaling 3.25 percentage points since September.

    Ecxonomists supposed to be educated and smart. Why don’t they see inflation as huge worry – NOTHING destroys acomony as surelly as high inflation.

    Why don’t we learn on other’s mistakes (or on our own in the past) – but again than there would be no Iraq war, So I guess I do ask for too much – as long ans Bankers and Pols are getting richer – $crew everybody else.

    As I stated couple of years ago – I think current situation is Deliberate and Well Planned effort towards destruction of middle class in USA.

  130. jam says:

    wow Citi at 14.38

  131. BC Bob says:

    Not to worry, the fed is steering the ship;

    “Inflation worries predominate at the Fed”

    “The potential for runaway price hikes is the top concern of Federal Reserve policymakers, according to testimony by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the accompanying report on the economic outlook of his colleagues on the central bank released Tuesday.”

    [Edit] Why do I picture Animal House, B#llsheeeeeet, B#llsheeeeet.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/inflation-worries-trump-other-concerns/story.aspx?guid=%7BCC4A7C42%2DB6F0%2D4A9E%2D98AF%2DEC3D72CF61F7%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&

  132. 3b says:

    #124 And you are buying 1 year later?

  133. HEHEHE says:

    Sean,

    Please give me your email address :))

  134. 3b says:

    #133 tbw: I Saw that, also anotehr one yesterday came on the market I belive it is on Howland or aroudn that area, for $392k, it is bank owned.

  135. bairen says:

    #140 BC Bob,

    Instead of jawboning, why doesn’t Bergabe raise rates 50 bips?

    The housing market is already toast. If having an arm reset 50 bips higher is going to bust a homeowner, they would most likely go bust anyway.

  136. 3b says:

    #133 And yes the town houses are still on the market, as well as the historical house.

  137. RentL0rd says:

    JB, Good luck with everything!

  138. NJCoast says:

    Skep-tic #130

    Ackerman was doing a reverse pump and dump. Nothing like kicking down a stock when you have a huge short position.

    Grim-

    Sorry for your personal troubles.
    It is far easier to fall in love than stay in love. I hope it all works out for the both of you.

  139. thatBIGwindow says:

    “lovely historical house” currently on the market but he managed to rent it out in the interim…I wonder how much per month in rent that is?

  140. skep-tic says:

    I think Fed doesn’t care about inflation because they know wages are not going higher and housing costs are going lower, so in their view, inflation is contained.

  141. skep-tic says:

    #147

    NJCoast– I’m sure Ackerman’s motives aren’t pure, but his proposal sounds a heck of a lot better than anything else I’ve heard re: the GSEs. If he can convince the gov’t to go this route, he deserves to make a lot of money off it in my view

  142. Al says:

    We need rates in 6-8 right now – economy is toast anyways, housing is toast as well… NO matter what market will price-in 6% energy inflation in June (thats 72% yearly!!!!!!!!!) and by New year mortgage rates will be at least 8-9%.

    Oil will hit 200$ this year. Back in winter I predicted 150$ this year – I am getting a lot more pessimistic.

    But look at the bright side – with all entitlements increasing by oficial CPI and treasuries at low rates we are very efffciently solving medicare/SS crisis and getting rid of national debt!!!

  143. Sean says:

    SKF like a rocket in the last 4 days of trading, where is Bi? We need him to recommend some other sectors? How about consumer discretionary Bi? What do you think Bi?

  144. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I see our Chimpanzee-in-Chief has a news conference coming up.

    He scares me when he starts talking about a “rough patch” (I think it means something different in Texas)

  145. Hobokenite says:

    The paranoid part of my mind thinks that is is yet another wealth consolidation tactic. Because holding property is the true form of making long term wealth.

    All the truly very comfortable people I know have large holdings of RE. In a year or two it may be time to start acquiring an RE position.

    I think you’ve been watching too many Carlton Sheets infomercials.

    Correlation does not imply causation.

    The people who own RE own it because they are “wealthy”. They are not wealthy because they own RE.

  146. BC Bob says:

    “The housing market is already toast. If having an arm reset 50 bips higher is going to bust a homeowner, they would most likely go bust anyway.”

    bairen,

    Despite what they want us to believe, the fed only cares about its member banks. They are trying to steepen the yield curve. This is the tonic that they are ordering. It’s helps turn idiot bankers into geniuses.

  147. Moodys downgrades FNM & FRE financial health, long term debt still AAA.
    DJUSHB at lifetime lows.

  148. Hard Place says:

    Grim,

    Sorry to hear about your troubles. Sounds like you have the proper perspective to work it out. Always a bit tough to focus when other things weigh on your mind. In the end talking honestly and being open and true to yourself will be the best guide for where you should end up.

    As for the talks about “bait dogs”, July 3rd was the anniversary our dog was stolen out of a backyard in Queens 3 years ago. He wasn’t the friendliest dog to everyone, but he loved us and us him. Cops told us every summer there are 30-40 dogs stolen out of people’s yards in the area. They said possibly used in the fighting ring. Not exactly what you want to hear about the dog you raised for 7 years. Glad to hear your pup ended up in a good situation. I hope the same for mine. We miss you old friend.

  149. Orion says:

    Grim: One door closes for another to open. Not saying it’s easy. The new opening might even be the old one, with new insights from both sides. Don’t be too eager to jump ship.
    Best of luck to you both.

  150. lostinny says:

    Grim
    You can always get a hold of me if you need to. If I can’t try to help someone whos helped me, what kind of person am I?
    BTW I am good for a gtg tonight or tomorrow night. Going away Thurs. to Deliverance land. I hope my friends aren’t taking us there to kill us. :)

  151. make money says:

    I’m gonna go out on a limb here and offer a suggestion. Albanian women!!!They tend to listen instead of just talk.

  152. grim says:

    Oh boy, this makes me feel confident..

    From MarketWatch:

    Bush: Banking system is basically sound

    Basically…

  153. skep-tic says:

    Dodd to Bernanke: “How can we spend more money that doesn’t exist?”

  154. RentinginNJ says:

    Bush: Banking system is basically sound

    Captain of the Titanic to Base: Ah, we are basically still afloat.

  155. 3b says:

    #148 tbw; And it has no windows on the back and sides;simply delightful.

  156. Nom Deplume says:

    [7] Ouch. sorry to hear it.

    I think we need a Grim Appreciation GTG next.

    {if it has been proposed, I apologize for the redundancy}

  157. Bernanke – Concerned less about solvency than ability to extend credit.

  158. Laurie says:

    RE #121 124 132 134…Pulis Ave in Franklin Lakes is the main drag and gets a ton of traffic. I will be some of that trafic as I drive by today and take a look…there are still a few small/modest houses in Franklin lakes..the one my (old)neighbor just bought is NOT one of them…they pd a cool 2.685 million for their new house…their old house across the street from me will quaintly be remembered as their starter house… it will sell for 1 million+

  159. NJl$rd says:

    Wait a sec. Is ‘Overlords’ below a typo or intentional copyright infringement? I here clarify again that any thing ‘lord’-related, i.e. landlord/slumlord/overlords etc. are copyright protected.

    Any violation in this blog of above copyright will be prosecuted to the full extend of the laws!!!

    > Title I, “For One, Welcome Our New Mortgage Overlords”

  160. AntiTrump says:

    JB,

    Sorry to hear about your situation.

    I think things always happen for the better and you pretty much have most of your life ahead of you to make the choices you want. This is something which most of us can only dream of !

    Come to think of it, you are probably the most eligible bachelor around, at least in the New York metro area ;-). You will always have our support.

    Good luck with your future plans.
    -AntiTrump.

  161. Nom Deplume says:

    [60] BC

    McSoreley’s GTG? I am so in. But is that a good place to get Grim good and wrecked???? I seem to recall their offerings were limited.

  162. Zack says:

    Deflation, here we come. Bernanke does not have a clue how to prevent that from happening. This is what happens when you pump too much money into system. Everybody becomes an Einsteen overnight by fliiping real estate. Sooner or later, the system breaks and we have a problem

  163. 3b says:

    #167 Laurie:it will sell for 1 million+

    it wills ell if the owners get the financing, or of course if they oay cash,a nd money is no objetc. I personally cannto see how any one can feel good about buing ahosue today, with allt hat is going on, unless, again, money is no object.

    As far as that house being on a busy street, that well may be, but it still is Franklin lakes, and a couple of years ago I bet it would have sold for 500+.

    Point is if prices are dropping in Franklin Lakes, they are dropping everywhere.

  164. DL says:

    Here in euro land we’ve seen costs nearly double in dollar terms. My monthly rent went from $1,200 to $2,000. Had dinner at an inexpensive (by euro standards) Italian resturant last night; two pizzas, two glasses of wine and two cups of coffee – $50! Whenever I hear the nimrods on CNBC yap about how this is good for exports I just tell myself that when the dollar goes to zero we can export everythign to everybody, right?

    Still, it’s only money.

  165. Nom Deplume says:

    [174] DL

    Problem is, we don’t manufacture and export anything the world wants except agriculture and coal.

  166. grim says:

    Problem is, we don’t manufacture and export anything the world wants except agriculture and coal.

    Turns out manufacturing dollars and shipping them overseas in returned containers wasn’t a fiscally prudent model.

  167. Laurie says:

    Ok Ok…yet another one of our neighbors (geez what is it about this neighborhood?)has their POS split for sale. Original price was $799..crazy just crazy…anyway thru price reductions it is finally where it needs to be @ $699….of course they lost the entire spring selling season. A house purchased in the next month or so won’t close till Oct or even later..so no one with kids wants to close after school starts and right when you are gearing up for the holidays…but these are really the nicest people and I feel badly for them.I wonder if it will finally move at $699…surrounding value is much higher, house 2 doors down went for $910 almost immediately

  168. bairen says:

    #174 DL

    Same thing happed to us when we lived in Australia. When we moved to Sydney it was 59 cents to the Aussie dollar, when we left last year it was about 88 cents to the Aussie dollar. Toss in 20% increase in prices over 3.5 years and our cost of living almost doubled.

    On the bright side it was good training for what’s coming to the US.

  169. skep-tic says:

    what if we just defaulted like Russia? clean slate

  170. RentinginNJ says:

    Oil way down ….almost $8

  171. twice shy says:

    Just heard Bernanke testify that “everything the Fed does is to protect the welfare of the average American.” With a straight face, no less.

  172. Rich In NNJ says:

    Laurie (167),

    Yes, Pulis is a busy thorofare.
    But that aside, someone in 2005 not only thought it was worth $430,000 but thought it would be worth $619,000 after dumping in more money and totally renovating the place. Now it’s listed for $399,000
    And here’s the kicker, it’s in the same location today as it was in 2005.

  173. Will V. says:

    Oil way down ….almost $8

    Now oil is down $9

  174. NJGator says:

    Note to Sellers of GSMLS#: 2548866 21 Hawthorne Place, Montclair. Ask price $469,900k

    Good luck to you. Friends of ours sold the identical townhouse next door to you for $415k after 2 price reductions several months ago.

    Keep dreaming. Hold out for your magic price. We look forward to having you as neighbors for a long time to come.

  175. scribe says:

    John, #46

    Translation, please?

    Who’s bankrupt?

  176. Rich In NNJ says:

    MarketWatch: CRUDE OIL SLIDES MORE THAN $9 TO TRADE BELOW $140 A BARREL

    Wow! Bi was right!

    Oh wait, I didn’t see the 1 before the 4.

  177. CB in SJ says:

    #176 Ricky-nu: That article was too stinkin’ funny; thanks for posting. Just one gem:

    “Demand for a new investment bubble began months ago, when the subprime mortgage bubble burst and left the business world without a suitable source of pretend income.”

  178. 3b says:

    Headline from the Wall St Journal

    Crude-oil prices plunged below $139 a barrel, helping turn around stocks after an early dive caused by lingering concern about the nation’s banks. OPEC said it sees signs of weakening demand for fuel in the months ahead.

    “Lingering concern about the nation’s banks.”

    Lingering? Lingering !!!!

  179. skep-tic says:

    “Lingering”

    as in, lingering outside a locked door, waiting for your money

  180. skep-tic says:

    At 10:05 a.m. (1405 GMT), the Canadian currency was at
    US$1.0002

  181. Theo says:

    re #185

    If I remember that house correctly it is also set way off of Pulis. In a normal town with normal lot sizes, it would have been the second or third house from the corner

  182. BC Bob says:

    “the Canadian currency was at US$1.0002′

    EH.

  183. bi says:

    39#, John, check out STT today, up 10% in a down market. i am loading up financials.

    Hope I have time to watch all star game with all this fun going on. Companies set to report later this week include Citigroup Inc. (C), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), PNC Financial Services Inc. (PNC), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), State Street Corp. (STT), Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI), Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) and Zions, according to Thomson StreetEvents.

  184. Stu says:

    bi:

    How did your last short term long the financials go?

  185. kettle1 says:

    OK, people dont rip me apart to badly, but please feel free to point out any stupidity on my part.

    I have been considering a “housing plan” and am interested in any feed back the board cares to share:

    First my premise is that in the next 2-4 years we are going to see an energy crisis that matches the 70’s as a best case scenario. At the same time the US economy is toast, due to the devaluing of the dollar, rising unemployment and what will be an unexpected linkage between energy food and banks, where all 3 take serious hits.

    I have access to a VA Loan and am considering building in the next 12 months. I have a preliminary construction estimate (From 2 prospective builders) of 200 – 250K, including a 15% over-run buffer. my target is to spend no more then 100K on the property. My target property is something more rural such as towards sparta. Location is flexible (with a preference towards southern sussex or someplace with reasonable access to 287) with the requirements being south facing and a lot size of at least .5 acres but a preference of 1+. My target for taxes is 6K or under.

    here are the numbers i ran (30 yrs @ 3 % & 6K taxes)
    principle $300,000 $350,000
    mortgage payment $1,264.81 $1,475.61
    PITI $2,064.81 $2,383.95
    Tax Adjusted Monthly housing expense Including Maint. $1,465.92 $1,685.24

    (housing cost would be approx 20% of income)

    my family currently has a net income between 150 – 200K w/ approx 20K in total debt (single digit total interest rate). i would be able to put 10% down by Dec. The plan would be to stay in the house for at least 5 – 7 years or longer unless life dictates otherwise.

    The house would be about 90% off-grid

    Perhaps i am being overly pessimistic, but i think that the next year may be the last window of opportunity for a while due to economic and social issues culminating

    so how about a sanity check.

  186. Jill says:

    Sorry to hear about this, grim. I thank the fates every day that I have a spouse who realizes that writing my blog is as necessary as breathing for me and he needs a fair amount of personal space too. Not everyone can do that. You (and she) will get through this, hopefully without too much bitterness on either side.

  187. kettle1 says:

    Last minute GTG to see the Dark Knight in Imax this weekend.

  188. randyj says:

    so much for light volume trading in the summer with everyone on vacation!! this stock market action today is ridiculous. anyone that thinks they can predict short-term directions of the market is lying to themselves. what the hell is the explanation for the huge dump in oil??

  189. Stu says:

    Kettle1,

    You are to the energy arena what Roubini is to the economy. You are both perma bears. I tend to be a bear as well (as you already know), but I am well aware of how noise can cloud your rational thought processes. If you are building this house to say, “I told you so,” well that is the wrong reason. If you can afford it as a hobby, then what the heck, do it. Personally, I feel that if what you are predicting becomes a reality, you are better off just buying a prebuilt home for pennies on the dollar and then upgrading it to be grid free. Lord knows, there will be a lot of starving contractors then.

    If I may be blunt, you are all wrapped up in this energy thing. You want to be a first adopter, but at what expense? We put up a windmill at my college to find out that with the amount of maintenance it required, no amount of wind would make it break even. Let everyone else figure it out and then install the windmill when it is being sold by Tyco.

    That’s my 2 cents.

    Of course if you do decide to build it and Armageddon hits, I would love to rent your guest room.

  190. BC Bob says:

    “what the hell is the explanation for the huge dump in oil??”

    Bi called a top at $68. It’s now resonating throughout world markets.

  191. kettle1 says:

    bairen 99

    i already have 3 months worth stocked

    oh sry about the dark knight double post

  192. bairen says:

    kettle1

    Do those figures include 40k or so for setting up solar? Also do they factor in the cost of clearing and grading the land? Are there fees for hooking up to the infrasructure?

    Do you ever watch planetgreen channel? Seems like their budgets go way over 15% cost overruns for remodels and building.

  193. John says:

    fannie mae just got authorized to do conforming mortgages on GMC SUVs in excess of 5,000 pounds

  194. kettle1 says:

    Stu,

    thanks for the input.

    I would build earth sheltered. Its something i have wanted to do for a while, since before i became an energy bull. That alone cuts a significant portion of energy consumption. heating is covered by solar thermal and there would be a small solar electric array to start that i would add to over time as cash allowed.
    The numbers i have run have a payback on the energy related tech being 6- 10 years depending on what happens in energy markets.
    my rent is currently 1800 a month, so when considering tax adjusted monthly costs, it seems to be a competitive idea.
    Once againi, while i am indeed the rubini of energy, it is much more then energy that has me concerned, from BC’s dollar to food supply chains (a topic i have only touched on a little bit here)

  195. Secondary Market says:

    #199

    Did you say 3% interest rate?

    “30 yrs @ 3 %”

  196. kettle1 says:

    # bairen Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 12:10 pm

    kettle1

    Do those figures include 40k or so for setting up solar? Also do they factor in the cost of clearing and grading the land? Are there fees for hooking up to the infrasructure?

    Do you ever watch planetgreen channel? Seems like their budgets go way over 15% cost overruns for remodels and building.

    My construction estimates to date include clearing the land as well as any earth works that may need to be done. The solar thermal will be paid for in cash and the solar electric will be financed.
    15% is my target as i have managed several pharma projects of higher complexity and been able to stay under budget. I have also build several contingency scenarios for cost analysis.

  197. make money says:

    #199

    Did you say 3% interest rate?

    “30 yrs @ 3 %”

    If you can raise capital at 3% take it immediately. It’s a no brainer. Inflation will wipe out your $1500 and your mortgage will cost a lot less then you think. (real cost).

  198. kettle1 says:

    Stu,

    you also hit on my core dilemma. if i am not overly pessimistic then i will benefit by acting in the near future. But if i am wrong, will my actions end up causing a substantial or significant negative impact?

    This i suppose is the core question that i am not sure how to answer.

    Grim. we are all here for you!

  199. kettle1 says:

    i have spoken to grim and to 2 other RE people who have all suggested that i could pull 3% at the moment with a VA loan. havent spoken to the banks yet though, so 3% ???? thats what the info i have tells me.

    Clott can you weigh in on the matter?

  200. Secondary Market says:

    3%, DO IT! That is amazing.

  201. rhymingrealtor says:

    VA & FHA offer 3% down, not rate

    KL

  202. make money says:

    VA & FHA offer 3% down, not rate

    BINGO. not that sounds resonable.

  203. John says:

    3% = 13%

    Home prices will fall 10% in next year so you paid 3% interest for the right to lose 10% which equals -13%

    Kinda like zero down financing on an SUV that falls 25% in value..

  204. John says:

    people need money and jobs to buy heating oil and fuel.

    The spigot has run dry. we will have a bunch of unemployed people in sweaters sitting at home come Jan with nowhere to go.

  205. bi says:

    todays’s oil action is prelude for gold in next few days. watch out.

  206. BC Bob says:

    “todays’s oil action is prelude for gold in next few days. watch out.”

    bi,

    What do you do if you are hedged, gold?

  207. bairen says:

    Mugabe runs out of Monopoly money

    http://tinyurl.com/687egv

    “Zimbabwe is about to run out of the paper to print money on.”

  208. bairen says:

    #210 kettle1

    Your project sounds interesting, but have you considered resale value? (I can’t believe I asked that)

    Seriously though, if you make your home so unique would anyone want to buy it? Going solar and building green is one thing, but earth sheltered might be too extreme for a lot of New Jerseyans.

  209. Stu says:

    Oil is at $139. The economy has fully recovered. Let’s all run out and by a Hummer.
    Yehaw!

  210. Stu says:

    My idea of green would be to put pine trees up on my north and west exposure. Maybe connect a house to my downspouts and prick a few holes in it to water the garden. A Prius isn’t even cost effective…now unless you plan to live in that cave forever, you’ll never be able to sell it and it will take a lifetime to recover your initial energy investment.

  211. HEHEHE says:

    “Stu Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
    Oil is at $139. The economy has fully recovered. Let’s all run out and by a Hummer.
    Yehaw!”

    Sean has numbers in 07030 you can call.

  212. Stu says:

    ha ha

  213. make money says:

    3% = 13%

    Home prices will fall 10% in next year so you paid 3% interest for the right to lose 10% which equals -13%

    Kinda like zero down financing on an SUV that falls 25% in value..

    John,

    You forgot to add the cost of rising commodities. Whicj will rise a heck more than 13%.

    You know you need materials to build.

  214. Stu says:

    Kettle1:

    Take that 3% loan, build your house out of gold and melt it down 2 years from now and pay off the loan early. Then build your econocave with the gains, plus the technology will be much better proven.

  215. make money says:

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, proposed limits on short selling of shares in Fannie Mae. A spokesman for the SEC didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment on Tuesday. Short selling is a way to bet against securities. Fannie and Freddie shares have slumped roughly 70% in the past month

  216. RayC says:

    I bought a lottery ticket and went to Starbucks today. I feel more connected than I have in months.

    But now my stimulus check is gone.

  217. Hobokenite says:

    I propose limits on buying long in any of the financials.

  218. make money says:

    Kettle1:

    Take that 3% loan, build your house out of gold and melt it down 2 years from now and pay off the loan early. Then build your econocave with the gains, plus the technology will be much better proven.

    You’re runniing the risk of the Feds confiscating your home.

    Kettle,

    Like I said if you can raise capital at 3% do it. You’re PITI si only 20% of income and you’ll be Energy crisis proof.

    What more do you want?

  219. make money says:

    Grim,

    Please moderate {232}

  220. John says:

    For some reason I keep picturing Bush, Paulson and Bernakee slurping on a big gulp and humming the tune in Juno while wearing matching dumpy sweatshirts instead of the suit wearing all night boardroom meetings the press makes us believe takes place on sundays nights after a bad week in the market.

  221. BC Bob says:

    “Please moderate {232}”

    I’m also in mod at 232.

  222. John says:

    Your a funny guy, we have several million empty homes and you think someone is going to get a loan to build one more.

    John,

    You forgot to add the cost of rising commodities. Whicj will rise a heck more than 13%.

    You know you need materials to build.

  223. ben says:

    bairen,

    no, you’re not crazy. I bought a bunch of rice and a bunch of flour a few months ago. The price doubled at the supermarket since then. I made out pretty well.

  224. John says:

    I heard of sarbox but will this be sorecox?

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, proposed limits on short selling of shares in Fannie Mae. A spokesman for the SEC didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment on Tuesday. Short selling is a way to bet against securities. Fannie and Freddie shares have slumped roughly 70% in the past month

  225. lostinny says:

    Faux News just reported that Israel uncovered a plot to kill former English Prime Minister Tony Blair. I didn’t hear why or who was plotting.

  226. skep-tic says:

    #229

    this is pretty humiliating. paulson/bernanke thought they could ride to the rescue of the GSEs but nobody is buying it. so now we hastily move one step closer to pure central planning.

  227. Bklynhawk says:

    Grim-
    Truly sorry to hear your news. As many people have said above, this might be the best for both of you, especially since you don’t have kids or own a home yet.

    If there’s anything you think I can help you with, please let me know.

    Best of luck. I’ll buy the first round or two if there’s a McSorley’s GTG.

  228. kettle1 says:

    thanks for the sanity check :)

  229. make money says:

    grim please unmoderate {245}

  230. Rich In NNJ says:

    Saddle Brook FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 86 PLATT AVE $700,000 10/10/2006

    MLS#: 2829465
    Orig. List: $825,000 5/1/2007
    Last List: $689,000 7/14/2008 (actually since 11/27/2007)

  231. BC Bob says:

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Oppenheimer & Co.’s Meredith Whitney, the analyst who correctly predicted Citigroup Inc. would reduce its dividend this year, said the earnings outlook for Wachovia Corp. has “dramatically diminished” and bank stocks will keep falling until asset prices “get real.”

    Wachovia fell as much as 13 percent in New York trading after Whitney said prospects for shareholders of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank are “bleak.” Mortgage assets are still priced too high on U.S. banks’ balance sheets, she said.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aAuesKViEFRI&refer=home

  232. kettle1 says:

    thanks for the sanity check!!! :)

  233. skep-tic says:

    from the NYTimes:

    *******
    Customers at two National City branches in the Cleveland area did not seem worried, despite the near panic in the stock market. They said they had heard about the bank’s drop in stock value from local radio and television news, but were not concerned enough to withdraw money from their accounts.

    “Why, there’s no run on the bank, is there?” said Bernie Bragg, 60, who lives in Fairview Park, a Cleveland suburb. “It’s no big deal to me. The government said it’s going to bail out Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This thing with National City is small potatoes compared to that.”
    ***********

    this guy has it backward!

  234. Sean says:

    Lol limiting on shorting Fannie and Freddie? Who wants to play a game where you can only cheer for one team?

    I will move over to currencies, so FU COX!

  235. Shore Guy says:

    Our government at work:

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/prosecutor-among-million-on-us-terror-watchlist/2008/07/15/1215887572345.html

    The Justice Department’s former top criminal prosecutor says the US government’s terror watch list likely has caused thousands of innocent Americans to be questioned, searched or otherwise hassled.

    Former Assistant Attorney General Jim Robinson would know: he is one of them.

    Robinson joined another mistaken-identity American and the American Civil Liberties Union today to urge fixing the list that’s supposed to identify suspected terrorists.

    “It’s a pain in the neck, and significantly interferes with my travel arrangements,” said Robinson, the head of the Justice Department’s criminal division during the Clinton administration. He believes his name matches that of someone who was put on the list in early 2005, and is routinely delayed while flying – despite having his own government top-secret security clearances renewed last year.

    “I suppose if I were convinced that America is a safer place because I get hassled at the airport, I might put up with it,” Robinson said. “But I doubt it.”

    [snip]

  236. Rich In NNJ says:

    Dumont FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 17 DERBY LN $479,000 5/4/2005

    MLS#: 2816212
    Orig. List: $495,000 4/21/2008
    Last List: $450,000 7/14/2008

  237. Rich In NNJ says:

    Dumont FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 59 COLONIAL PKWY $465,000 2/23/2005

    MLS#: 2814492
    Orig. List: $470,000 4/9/2008
    Last List: $455,000 7/15/2008

  238. eric says:

    @ #207

    you mean HELOCs?

  239. Mitchell says:

    Grim sorry to hear the news.
    Best of luck to you.

  240. thatBIGwindow says:

    Ah Dumont…not quite Bergenfield, not quite Tenafly…

  241. Rich In NNJ says:

    Englewood FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 256 LIBERTY RD $400,000 11/16/2005

    MLS#:
    Orig. List: $369,000 6/16/2008
    Last List: $290,000 7/15/2008

  242. Shore Guy says:

    # 182 “average American” or did he intend to say “average american millionaire,” or, perhaps, “average american CEO,” or “average american investment broker.”

  243. Shore Guy says:

    oops “?”

  244. thatBIGwindow says:

    Ah Englewood…not quite Teaneck, not quite Englewood Cliffs…

  245. 3b says:

    #258 tbw; Ah River Edge, not quite Ridgewood, not quite Saddle River.

  246. thatBIGwindow says:

    lol…not even quite Oradell..

  247. BC Bob says:

    Ah 2008, not quite 2005.

  248. NJ Kiwi says:

    #253 shore guy.
    there is a colleague here that I work with that has the same name as a known terrorist. Very benign name, close to Joe Blogs (does he?- sorry bad joke).
    Every single time he travels overseas he gets a white glove TSA experience with a colonoscopy followed by an abbreviated apology after they don’t find any polyps.

    Another colleague was in Berlin with me last trip and took along his son- who happened to be into WWII replica stuff. Bought back a ton of German helmets, jackets etc. Needless to say I was home opening Mr Sam Adams number 2 and he was still parading around the TSA office explaining to those morons what a replica was and grounding his son for 5 years.

  249. bairen says:

    Ah bursting bubble, not quite inflating bubble

  250. RentinginNJ says:

    Kettle,

    What does your cash flow look like for the PV system? Cap cost, energy savings, subsidies, credits, etc.

  251. Shore Guy says:

    266 And still the TSA Red Teams are able to get most “test bombs” and other weapons past the airport screeners. Airport security largely provides just an appearance of security, not real security.

    I know the DHS explosives people and they are good folks, work their @$$es off, etc. but they cannot prevent a smart and determined terrorist from succeeding; not yet anyway.

  252. Shore Guy says:

    # 177 Maybe that is the new energy policy, use dollars as insulation in the walls, and in the Franklin Stove to provide heat.

  253. Mitchell says:

    #82 Outofstater
    What I loved about NJ.
    The people (neighbors, friends, family), Going to the city.

    What I Hated.
    Taxes, Insurance, Tolls, Pay Beaches, Pay Parks, Forever road Construction, Parkway, Commuting, Snow, Road Rage, Mortgage, Constant Tax increases.

    I almost have to put Job into the hated NJ category. Might as well have been a prison camp instead of a job compared to now.

    But no matter what I say and what most people think about the south you wont realize how lousy and messed up a state NJ is until you don’t live there any more.

  254. Shore Guy says:

    # 31 “rules of parliment”

    Roberts Rules or the rules of Parliment laid out by Bootsie Collins and George Clinton — e.g., weat furs, platform shoes, oversized glasses, and always do it with funk?

  255. Shore Guy says:

    WTF????????? Medivac? The crash happend “located about a half-mile west of Community Medical Center.”

    Oy!

    http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080715/NEWS/80715047

    TOMS RIVER — A serious motor vehicle crash in the area of Route 37 and Lakehurst Road is
    causing traffic problems, police said.

    Drivers are advised to avoid the intersection of Lakehurst Road, Oak Ridge Parkway and Route 37, located about a half-mile west of Community Medical Center.

    The crash resulted in at least one overturned vehicle, with an injured person needing a medevac helicopter.

    Traffic problems caused by the crash are likely to be exacerbated due to ongoing road work which has closed eastbound traffic on Lakehurst Road for two weeks.

  256. Shore Guy says:

    medevac, even.

  257. thatBIGwindow says:

    The problem of road rage is easily solved:

    Slower traffic keep to the right

    Who cares if the person behind you wants to go faster than 50 mph. It isn’t your job to enforce the speed limit. Move over! Left lane is for passing, not cruising.

  258. kettle1 says:

    apparently there is a misconception about earth sheltered. you can build a cave but you can also build this… here is an example.

    http://maps.live.com/default.aspx?v=2&FORM=LMLTCP&cp=40.77371~-74.819349&style=h&lvl=19&tilt=-90&dir=0&alt=-1000&scene=16566785&phx=0&phy=0&phscl=1&encType=1

    go to “birds eye view” for a clear look. although this one may be outside my budget ;)

  259. 3b says:

    #264 tbw: lol…not even quite Oradell..

    You have been gone too long. During your absence, and in the midst of the housing bubble River Edge leap frogged over Oradell,and went right into the Ridgewood/Saddle River category.

    Alsa it is not 2005 any more, and as an errie quiet descends over River Edge now that the bubble is burst, we will go back to what we always were, a step above New Milford.

    We will of course be left with the legacy however, of the 3rd highest taxes in Bergen County, whereas we used to be one of the lowest.

  260. bairen says:

    #273 Shore guy

    maybe the victim had to go to Jersey Shore in Neptune. I think it’s the regional trauma center.

  261. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    Mrs. Shore and I looked at an occasional use place last year that was earth sheltered. It was beautiful. The south-facing windows overlooked the pond and the meadow and the woods beyond. We wanted something a bit larger, so passed on it, but it was very nice indeed.

  262. Shore Guy says:

    276,

    It looks nice, and less to paint than most homes.

  263. Shore Guy says:

    # 279

    So she never gave birth?

  264. Shore Guy says:

    Why the heck is the Dow up? Did anybody listen to George III’s press conference today? Did anybody listen to the testimony on the Hill today?

    As Fed Chair Pangloss would say: le meilleur des mondes possibles.

  265. bairen says:

    #279 reinvestorx

    “Now I get to play the field and the women just love me.”

    funniest line today

  266. Secondary Market says:

    279
    now i know reinvestor is not a real person. this has to be a rouse by someone having fun disguising themselves on a blog.

  267. Hard Place says:

    #279 reinvestorx

    “Now I get to play the field and the women just love me.”

    funniest line today

    And you thought he was just delusional on RE…

  268. John says:

    Grimm tell her that by 2012 everyone will be on John’s pro real estate blog and bubble blogs will have gone the way of the beeper and rotery phone.

  269. thatBIGwindow says:

    Secondary Market- I thought this has been quite obvious for some time now.

  270. kettle1 says:

    reinvestor,

    the women you are referring to will love each of their customers when they hand them them the cash!

    renting 268,

    i have the calculation on my home PC will post the numbers tonight

  271. NJ Kiwi says:

    bairen he just left out a period a question mark and an exclamation mark

    “Now I get to play the field. And the women? Just love me!”

  272. #284 – IMO There was never a point when re101 was serious. Think of him as a Colbert of real estate.
    Funny stuff sometimes, I do have to give credit where it’s due.

  273. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
    medevac

    Shore: …word used for when the Russian President gets the Lewinsky treatment…

  274. John says:

    Down to 19 primary dealers.

    BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
    Banc of America Securities LLC
    Barclays Capital Inc.
    Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc.*
    Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
    Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
    Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
    Daiwa Securities America Inc.
    Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
    Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC
    Goldman, Sachs & Co.
    Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
    HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
    J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.*
    Lehman Brothers Inc.
    Merrill Lynch Government Securities Inc.
    Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
    Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
    UBS Securities LLC.

  275. RentinginNJ says:

    Gold Grillz helping to pay bills:

    “People selling their gold grillz & teeth to pay bills”

    http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2008/07/15/glasser.grillz.bills.wptv

  276. 3b says:

    #280 retardinvestor: Now I get to play the field and the women just love me.

    BARF!!!!

  277. chicagofinance says:

    Erin Callan Joins Credit Suisse
    By Susanne Craig
    Word Count: 373 | Companies Featured in This Article: Lehman Brothers Holdings, Credit Suisse Group
    Erin Callan, demoted last month as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief financial officer, will join Credit Suisse Group as head of its investment bank’s global hedge-fund business, Credit Suisse said.

    Ms. Callan, 42 years old, starts Sept. 2 and also will be a Credit Suisse managing director. As part of the newly created position, based in New York, she will be the firm’s chief liaison with hedge funds.

    “We are very fortunate,” Paul Calello, chief …

  278. John says:

    If your ex-wife was a “heifer” and you are “playing the field” does that make you a farmer with a love of cows?

    “I could only put up with so much and had to let that heifer go. Now I get to play the field and the women just love me”.

  279. Shore Guy says:

    John,

    You say that with a tone that seems to indicate that you disapprove of love between farmers and adult cows.

  280. fg says:

    now i know reinvestor is not a real person. this has to be a rouse by someone having fun disguising themselves on a blog.

    seriously, are you just figuring this out now or are you kidding?

  281. NJ Kiwi says:

    297

    baaaaaa

  282. Shore Guy says:

    What was the movie with the sheep in garters and hose?

  283. Shore Guy says:

    And I don’t mean anyone’s home movies, it was a mainstream Hollywood picture, God help us.

  284. njrebear says:

    What is CRPC? Is it a big deal to get this certification?

    Thanks!

  285. Secondary Market says:

    @298
    embarrassingly, yes. i normally just skim the site and pick and choose posts to read. whenever i see reinvestors name i usually skip right over it. especially when trying to catch up the days thread where it’s 4pm and the posts are up to 400. at least i had sense to pass it over and get to the good stuff. but today his post was the last of the thread and it resounded when i read it, so the light bulb finally came on.

  286. Shore Guy says:

    Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor

  287. NJ Kiwi says:

    dunno shore but we are going down a very strange path here even if it is trying to give reinvestor some improved options for finding warmth this winter

  288. bairen says:

    #295 chifi

    OK. Now this is the funniest line today

    “We are very fortunate,” Paul Calello, chief …

  289. skep-tic says:

    from the WSJ

    SEC Curbs Shorting of GSE Stocks,
    Considers Limits for Wider Market
    By KARA SCANNELL
    July 15, 2008 2:12 p.m.

    WASHINGTON–The Securities and Exchange Commission announced an emergency action aimed at reducing short-selling aimed at Wall Street brokerage firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and will immediately begin considering new rules to extend new requirements to the rest of the market.

    SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said the SEC would institute an emergency order requiring any traders to pre-borrow stock before shorting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the embattled government-sponsored entities that own more than half the nation’s mortgages. It would also apply to the stocks of Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. The order is a near-term fix and will expire in 30 days.

  290. Stu says:

    “Whatever you do, DO NOT take advice from young fresh freshed punks like Stu.”

    I guess that makes me super fresh. Word.

  291. fg says:

    303
    well then I don’t blame you. sadly, a lot of the regulars still take the bait

  292. willwork4beer says:

    JB, Clotpoll was right. Everybody here has your back, bro. And Clot(44), if you like hotdogs and beer, you must love my OT posts. :)

  293. Stu says:

    I thought you can’t short stocks under $5 anyway. Why don’t they just wait another day for FRE/FNM to get there and stop wasting their time with more moral hazard.

  294. njrebear says:

    Thanks Shore Guy!

    Is it a recognized certification? Reason, last week i talked to a Financial Advisor who holds this certification.

  295. Sybarite101 X says:

    ww4b,

    Just got a call from gary’s; Palo santo was apparently a once-a-year limited release, and they couldn’t get any. :-(

    Did you know of any left anywhere???

  296. Stu says:

    Off to Vegas tomorrow morning ya’all. Keep up the fort while I’m gone. Grim, hang in there buddy.

  297. Sybarite101 X says:

    John,

    I know those guys.

  298. Sybarite101 X says:

    John,

    How did you find that pic anyway?

  299. Mike NJ says:

    Does Shaun mind if we change his reply to not going?

  300. willwork4beer says:

    314 Syb101X. I thought the Dogfish website said Palo Santo would be an “occasional release”. As far as availability in NJ, I already drank my three favorite stores out of the stuff. Got my niece to order me a case out in PA, that’s probably the way I will get it in the future, if at all. Sorry. :(

  301. HEHEHE says:

    Hahaha, man the SEC getting bent out of shape because people are shorting I-banks and banks when I-banks and banks have made all kinds of money over the years shorting stocks.

    Why don’t we just fire Bush, congress etc and have the Wall Street CEO’s, Fuld, Blankfein, Thain etc pick a time zone to rule over?

  302. NYtoNJ09 says:

    Any info on MLS# 2814439?

  303. sas says:

    say goodbye to WaMu…say goodbye my baby!
    (Billy Joel song)

    SAS

  304. scribe says:

    Yoo hoo, John, #46

    Please translate:

    OMFG B4 the CC LEH used 2b QT, CB BNKRPT b4 2MORO, xoxo”

    I can translate OMFG …LEH …BNKRPT b4 2MORO … and what’s with the xoxo ….hugs and kisses?

    Does CB stand for Citibank?

  305. Nom Deplume says:

    [282] shore,

    Your moliere is showing.

  306. John says:

    Sybarite101 X Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
    John,

    How did you find that pic anyway? I know Ryan Koentizer

    The XOXO if Erin giving her best GG imitation to her old friends at LEH before she hits CSFB,

  307. John says:

    Oh my God before the credit crunch lehman use to be a cutie but now it could be bankrupt before tommorrow. Kisses Hugs, Kiss Hugs Erin C.

  308. NNJ says:

    John, I thought you would have more hair.

  309. Sybarite101 X says:

    John,

    Small world. His brother is a friend of mine. Are you Ryan’s boss?

  310. njpatient says:

    177 grim

    “Problem is, we don’t manufacture and export anything the world wants except agriculture and coal.

    Turns out manufacturing dollars and shipping them overseas in returned containers wasn’t a fiscally prudent model.”

    ROFLMFAO

    Nom Deplume, I’d take the position that we export both agriculture and aggravating culture.

  311. njpatient says:

    199 kettle

    “I have access to a VA Loan and am considering building in the next 12 months. I have a preliminary construction estimate (From 2 prospective builders) of 200 – 250K, including a 15% over-run buffer.”

    Don’t want to build it yourself?

  312. njpatient says:

    202 randyj

    “anyone that thinks they can predict short-term directions of the market is lying to themselves.”

    Half right. Usually they’re lying to everyone else as well.

  313. John says:

    Nope but I used to be back in the day, I still have a lot of old T&E receipts for burgers, steaks and beers for his three main food groups to prove it.

    Sybarite101 X Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
    John,

    Small world. His brother is a friend of mine. Are you Ryan’s boss?

  314. njpatient says:

    253 Shore

    Trade freedom for safety?

    More like the USSR every day (including our economic policy).

  315. afe says:

    Bernanke said he believed that home building was likely to finally end its slide later this year or early next year, but that the decline in housing prices could continue longer than that, although he said he couldn’t predict when, or at what level, they will find a bottom.

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/15/news/economy/senate_banking/index.htm?cnn=yes

  316. Rich In NNJ says:

    Fort Lee FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 2469 HAMMETT AVE $359,000 3/2/2005

    MLS#: 2819178 (REO)
    Orig List: $339,900 5/8/2008
    Last List: $309,900 7/14/2008

  317. Rich In NNJ says:

    Oakland FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 124 MANITO AVE $540,000 7/23/2004

    MLS#: 2808379
    Orig List: $559,000 3/1/2008
    Last List: $524,000 7/15/2008

  318. BC Bob says:

    JB [338],

    Until approx 3 years ago, I never thought we would witness a bank run in the US. If we could escape this mess with just 30-40% off 2005, it would be a huge victory. Unfortunately, we are in for very rough times ahead. The sad part, many don’t have a clue what’s here/coming.

  319. sas says:

    “Nothin’ like a good ol’ fashioned bank run”

    I remember not too long ago when I said FDIC means nada, I caught alot of heat.

    Once againe, as time marches on.. you will see that your SAS is right again.

    ; )

    SAS

  320. sas says:

    say goodbye to WaMu…say goodbye my baby!
    (Billy Joel song)

  321. 3b says:

    Hey Rich this one (njmls2829678) is back on the market in River Edge. It has been in some stage of foreclosure for the better part of a year.

    You had been kind enough to let me know a few weeks back that it went UC, well I guess the buyers could not get the financing, because it is back on the market.

  322. chicagofinance says:

    njrebear Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
    Thanks Shore Guy!
    Is it a recognized certification? Reason, last week i talked to a Financial Advisor who holds this certification.

    Bear: Well then you talked to the wrong advisor…

  323. njpatient says:

    297 Shore

    “You say that with a tone that seems to indicate that you disapprove of love between farmers and adult cows.”

    Oh, the farmer and the cowman should be friends.
    One man likes to push a plough, the other likes to chase a cow,
    But that’s no reason why they can’t be friends.

  324. sas says:

    Citibank

    tick..tock…tick tock!

  325. scribe says:

    John,

    Thank you.

    Nice to know that CB isn’t Citibank.

    I can actually translate GG since I know what your favorite TV show is :)

  326. Orion says:

    From my POV:
    I know I’ve been reckless and greedy, why, I even hedged it 70:1 because I thought it was a sure bet, my best friends gave me lots of AAA’s, so I just thought everything was cool…C’mon, give me another check again, just don’t fill in the dollar amount. Not sure how much I’ll need, or even if I’ll ever need it. Just give it to me anyway so I know it’s there, ‘ya know, for emergencies. But I don’t expect an emergency. I promise not to overdraw. Even if I do though, you’ve got lots of aunts & uncles that can give you more. Actually, you can just take more from them, you really don’t have to ask, ‘ya know?

    Paulson’s testimony and request was totally infuriating and a disgrace to US citizens.

    A blank f’king check? Is he nuts? IMHO, this would create another major moral hazard! If everyone knows that sugar-daddy has a blank check to bail them out, it creates an incentive to take riskier bets with other people’s money. It’s simple as that.
    Un friggin’ believable!

  327. willwork4beer says:

    Syb101X I had a chance to check the website and it calls Palo Santo a limited release but goes on to say “released monthly beginning in March 2008”. I figured monthly meant once a month. Silly me… I have a contact I have been meaning to check. I’ll try to do that tomorrow and get back to you.

  328. jam says:

    [347] I don’t think Citi is going away. I won’t be surprised to see it drop another 33%.

  329. HEHEHE says:

    Over the course of last summer I read the following three books and I’ll be damned if nearly everything written in each has come or appears to be coming to fruition:

    American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21stCentury

    The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel

    Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

    Any suggestions for this summer? I was thinking of a primers on farming, canning vegetables and self-defense.

  330. Outofstater says:

    #300 Shore – Are you thinking of Woody Allen’s “Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Sex But Were Afraid To Ask”? One of the funniest scenes was Gene Wilder slugging down a bottle of Woolite like a Bowery bum.

  331. Orion says:

    hehehe (352)

    I read #2 also. The only thing the author didn’t anticipate was our current housing collapse. Everything else was spot on.

  332. skep-tic says:

    my question is whether there is any long term thinking at all going on within the Fed, SEC, FDIC, etc, or whether they are just making stuff up as they go along. It appears that Treasury came up with the half-baked plan to bail out the GSEs two weeks ago– is this the extent of the long term planning?

    I don’t see how Congress can vote on anything of this magnitude without detailed specifics as to what the Fed’s powers will be in certain situations and for how long. The Fed is already acting outside of its explicit authority and no one seems to care, probably because no one has spent any significant time thinking about anything beyond the immediate crisis. it should be obvious by now that these are not isolated events. the fact that we are talking about handing over a blank check to a couple of individuals to do whatever they want with no oversight is astounding– it’s like we’re suddenly in a dictatorship. Who is accountable and to what standard?

  333. chicagofinance says:

    LeeS: Maybe I am going to come across here as a f—face, but I think that grim will respect this comment. There are two sides to every story, and as a friend helping another in the coping stage, I am completely on the side of saying f— the b—-. However, ultimately, these discussions should never be forwarded on an absolute basis. You must learn from failure, and copping the attitude that “my woman” must be 100% behind me is f—ed. Also, assuming that every man reflexively needs his knobbed shined can be categorized the same.

    Just keepin’ it real…..

  334. BC Bob says:

    “Any suggestions for this summer? I was thinking of a primers on farming, canning vegetables and self-defense.

    he,

    The Demise of The Dollar, Addison Wiggin

  335. Sean says:

    re: naked shorts and failure to deliver. Here is a good presentation from Patrick Burne of Overstock on naked short selling.

    Cameo appearance from Cramer as well.

    http://www.deepcapturethemovie.com/

  336. njpatient says:

    The phrase “naked shorts” puts me in mind of the phrase “pant up”.

  337. Rich In NNJ says:

    3B (344),

    SOLD: 265 MONROE AVE $500,000 8/2/2005

    ACT 265 MONROE AVE $524,902 8/15/2006
    PCH 265 MONROE AVE $518,000 9/8/2006
    Relist
    ACT 265 MONROE AVE $484,500 10/13/2006
    PCH 265 MONROE AVE $479,900 12/1/2006
    ACT* 265 MONROE AVE $479,900 1/16/2007
    ARR 265 MONROE AVE $479,900 1/17/2007
    PCH 265 MONROE AVE $519,900 1/18/2007
    W-T 265 MONROE AVE $519,900 2/10/2007
    Relist
    ACT 265 MONROE AVE $499,900 1/2/2008
    ACT* 265 MONROE AVE $499,900 2/26/2008
    ARR 265 MONROE AVE $499,900 3/6/2008
    PCH 265 MONROE AVE $489,900 4/30/2008
    PCH 265 MONROE AVE $449,000 5/13/2008
    ACT* 265 MONROE AVE $449,000 5/27/2008
    U/C 265 MONROE AVE $449,000 6/18/2008
    EXP 265 MONROE AVE $449,000 6/30/2008
    Relist
    ACT 265 MONROE AVE $449,000 7/15/2008

  338. njpatient says:

    356 chifi

    Word

  339. All Hype says:

    Grim:

    Sorry to hear the news. I went thru a tought spell with an old girlfriend but after these many years it was the best thing that ever happened to me.

  340. njrebear says:

    Chifi,
    His card said “Financial Advisor” :(

  341. RentL0rd says:

    #352, how about:

    Our 50 States: A Family Adventure Across America by Lynn Chenney?

    I kid, I kid…

    Although a little self serving I learnt from and enjoyed “Crash Proof..” by Peter Schiff. I got hold of the book a year ago after BC Bob mentioned it.

  342. SG says:

    Grim – All the Best Wishes.

  343. NYtoNJ09 says:

    Grim – Wish you the best. It’s difficult I went through one about 5 years ago. And I am glad I made the decision. Take your time and make sure that is what you want to do. I would suggest spending some time apart and after that you will know.

  344. HEHEHE says:

    Thanks for the book suggestions.

    Skept-tic they are definately making it up as they go along and trying to drag out the plunge so it occurs in slow motion. All I can say is if the past year is any indication it is not working to well.

  345. Clotpoll says:

    Didn’t dig hard thru the past 200 posts (crazy day), but naked shorting is a blatantly illegal and manipulative practice that seems to have become commonplace, even among retail investors.

    I have acquaintances who have seemingly been able to pull this off at will ever since the shorting-on-downtick rules changed about a year ago. A couple of people I know do it a fair amount on pink sheet issues and sometimes manage to wreak havoc. I hate this, because it interferes with legitimate shorting activity (I can never borrow enough of the stuff I want to legitimately short) and introduces a predatory level of noise into what should be organized, level-field trading. I think if a broker offered me this kind of opportunity, I would decline it and report the firm to the SEC. FNM, FRE, LEH, etc can collapse under the weight of their own stupidity; market manipulation isn’t needed to help them to their final outcome.

    Several news reports I heard this afternoon seemed to imply that naked shorting is a legit activity that will now be curbed. Kudos to the media for once again getting it totally wrong.

  346. Mantalooker says:

    My first post here.
    Take a look at http://www.businessjive.com

    All about bank / hedge funds shorting with stock they do not even own… a form of counterfeiting… pretty informative…

    WOW… lot’s of shorts bringing them all down… now we see how it’s done… no uptick… no real stock… viva $$$$$

  347. sas says:

    my first wife, Sandra, didn’t even last a year.

    But, Sandra did give me a very special blessing…..my first child (daughter).

    SAS

  348. Everything's Hobroken says:

    Grim don’t you know it’s because you’re a dirty man?

    Dirty Man Blues

    I’m a dirty man, dirty man, dirty, dirty man.
    I’m a dirty man, dirty man, a dirty, dirty man.
    I sometimes leave the lid up, don’t always have a plan,
    didn’t shave this morning; I’m a dirty, dirty man.

    She said she couldn’t love me, since I’m acting like a jerk,
    I fail to see the obvious, spend to much time at work.
    I haven’t bought her flowers, left the light on in the can,
    don’t say a word for hours; I’m a dirty, dirty man.

    I’m totally disorganized, hopelessly inept,
    she can’t believe I don’t know where the ziploc bags are kept.
    I left the blinds closed yesterday; I’m not a coupon fan;
    I never buy the groceries; I’m a dirty, dirty man.

    I walk ahead; I walk too slow; she’s not having any fun;
    though it’s true that I do wait to finish ’til she’s done.
    I really do not want to hear about the project that she ran;
    I don’t take her to the movies; I’m a dirty, dirty man.

    I sometimes don’t shower until the afternoon,
    the last time that I really cleaned was months ago in June.
    I don’t fold laundry properly, I don’t handwash my pans,
    I leave clothes in the dryer; I’m a dirty, dirty man.

    I’m a dirty man, dirty man, dirty, dirty man.
    I’m a dirty man, dirty man, a dirty, dirty man.
    I living my life peacefully, I’m happy as I am,
    There really is no hope for me; I’m a dirty, dirty man.

    Copyright 2995, Raork Music, All Rights Reserved

  349. firestormik says:

    Grim,
    I’ve been there too. Not enjoyable experience for sure, but with no kids – no strings attached. Wish you all the best and you are the best!

  350. Everything's Hobroken says:

    Dirty Man
    Copyright is 2005 and used by permission.

  351. firestormik says:

    Regarding the girls. Look a little bit to the east from poland :)
    http://vulakh.fotki.com/2007/belarus/girls/
    My friend’s impression

  352. sas says:

    I had a-go once in Warsaw.

    sweet times in a historical, gritty city!

    SAS

  353. firestormik says:

    Unfortunately Warsaw was 90% destroyed in 1944

  354. Clotpoll says:

    fire (378)-

    Those photos are a tad bit disturbing…in a Norman Bates-kind of way.

  355. Richie says:

    5 times? That’s crazy, and probably really expensive after a while.

  356. Shore Guy says:

    # 352 “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy ”

    Does the author deal with the liklihood of the Wahibbist toppling the Saud dynasty? The NSC/intel folks I have had contact with seem to think that is on the horizon.

  357. Shore Guy says:

    # 349 Did you hear Bush today? He said there is a federal guarantee of Fannie and Freddy.

  358. Shore Guy says:

    # 336 NEVER! I would prefer a bit of danger to loss of liberty. The fools who look to trade liberty for safety don’t deserve to be heirs of Franklin.

  359. NJl$ord says:

    Grim, seriously would you consider something more financial stable job for the short-term though? My assumption is that financial factor play a big part in the decision process of most devoice – before and after. And yours may not be exception. Sorry kids it’s financial not the love playing here.

    Take my case, I went through dot com bust, telecom meltdown etc. And the moment I voluntously walked out that telecom building in in Dec. 2002 I swore I never do technology for a living. However my big dream did not last long with my wife’s tolerance. In a nutshell, a lot of nasty things happen and I degraded into a pig in no time.

    Well, I ended up to keep my marriage and my house. I’m still doing tech today, with RE in the sideline. Not that bad for a small slumlord afterall.

    # 37 grim Says:
    July 15th, 2008 at 8:31 am

    Thanks for the support everybody..

    Turns out that trying to hold down two full-time jobs, a part-time MBA, and being a fanatical blogger might not be compatible with a relationship.

  360. Diane says:

    kettle1 –
    Another consideration is permitting issues (DEP, stormwater, Highlands in Sussex)when buiding on a fresh land these days, plus adhering to twp codes, etc. for CO approval. Getting an unconventional site plan approved can take extra time, effort and money.

    Grim –
    Survived #3…

  361. njpatient says:

    Kids today

    Don’t know how to suicide squeeze

  362. Dennis Novak, MD says:

    Grim:
    I’ve been a satisfied reader for 2 years, though no posts…learning more than I knew. I’m a family doctor in Ocean County. Let me know if you need any help; I’d like to return the favor.
    Dennis

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