“We’re preparing for the worst-case scenario”

From CNN/Money:

For states, it’s ‘worst-case scenario’

States and municipalities are facing their worst budget crunches in decades – and it’s only going to get worse.

As the weakening economy undermines consumers and businesses alike, governments are facing a rare confluence of declines in personal and corporate income taxes, property taxes and sales taxes. This is forcing officials to raise taxes and fees, lay off workers and slash spending – cutting aid to hospitals, schools, Medicaid and more.

At the same time, as unemployment and inflation rise, demand for public services and the cost of delivering them is on the increase.

On top of all that, the credit crunch has made it virtually impossible for some governments to borrow to cover short-term financing needs, forcing states such as California to appeal to Washington for help.

Worst of all, most experts are predicting the fiscal squeeze will only deepen.

“It’s all just starting,” said Chris Hoene, director of the Center for Policy and Research at the National League of Cities. “It’s going to be at least three years of pretty tough sweating.”

Other states, however, have no choice. Michigan and Maryland enacted tax increases, while New Hampshire and New York are increasing cigarette taxes, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. New Jersey, meanwhile, is eliminating property tax rebates for households with incomes of more than $150,000 and is reducing property tax rebates for some other residents. A public utilities tax that was scheduled to end in 2010 will continue to 2013.

“We’re preparing for the worst-case scenario,” said Tom Vincz, spokesman for the New Jersey Office of the State Treasurer.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

471 Responses to “We’re preparing for the worst-case scenario”

  1. lostinny says:

    States That Can’t Pay for Themselves
    by Prashant Gopal
    Wednesday, October 8, 2008

    NY and NJ are on this list:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/105909/States-That-Can%27t-Pay-for-Themselves

  2. lostinny says:

    oh yeah, first and second!

  3. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Foreclosures Index Shows More Than 107,500 Homes Lost in September

    Foreclosures have left nearly three-quarters of a million people out of their homes nationwide so far this year–including more than 107,500 in September alone, according to ForeclosureS.com’s U.S. Foreclosures Index, the first look at September’s foreclosure numbers in the wake of the nation’s financial markets fiasco and congressional bailout.
    This year’s foreclosures mean that 10.3 of every 1,000 households has been foreclosed this year, according to ForeclosureS.com, a national leader in foreclosure and property information.
    ForeclosureS.com analysis shows the foreclosure tidal wave unabated.

    Foreclosures are up 6.6% from August to September, 25.8% from the second quarter to the third quarter, and 82.6% year-to-date compared with the same time a year ago. Foreclosures remain on track to surpass 1 million by year-end.

    Pre-foreclosures–which include notices of default and/or foreclosure auction prior to actual foreclosure–should end up a record 2 million, ForeclosureS.com reports.

  4. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    First Into Recession, California Shows Possible Future for U.S.

    Here’s the latest trend that started in California and is spreading to the rest of the country: recession.

    It’s all but certain the U.S. economy is in a recession, as falling home prices and Wall Street turmoil have put the brakes on consumer spending and stoked unemployment. But California got there first. Now, the state provides a template of how a broad U.S. downturn could look.

    With its export businesses, manufacturing sector, professional services and big retail employers, California looks like many other U.S. states, only more so. California’s $1.8 trillion economy — twice the size of India’s and accounting for about 15% of the U.S. gross domestic product — is powerful enough to have ripple effects nationally. It is home to Hollywood, five of 30 Major League Baseball franchises and the largest farming sector in the nation.

    California was also at the leading edge of the nation’s recent housing bubble, which is where its current problems started. Home prices in California rose higher and faster than in most of the U.S., and started weakening earlier, in 2005. Some mortgage-holders defaulted. Others struggle along under a mountain of debt. The problems spread to the state’s financial sector, which was heavily exposed to local real estate. As Californians cut their spending, job losses spread from the housing sector to retail stores and auto dealers. Now the state’s unemployment rate is 7.7%, among the highest in the nation.

  5. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    National City in talks with potential suitors: WSJ

    Regional bank National City Corp. is talking with several banks, including PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and Bank of Nova Scotia, about a possible sale, according to a report Thursday in The Wall Street Journal. Shares of Cleveland-based National City rose about 17% in premarket trading Thursday.

  6. kettle1 says:

    mike in waiting:

    interesting update. would only pay 250 for it now…..
    ——————————————-
    Nom,

    was kidding about the ranch, but would be a cool project if i had a spar million or so…….

    Actually, can we incorporate and then go to the FED for a no collateral loan and then purchase the property. promptly sell the property to ourselves for pennies and close down the corp?

  7. kettle1 says:

    just heard on the radio…..

    AIG gets another 37 billion?!?!?!?!?

    can we shut them down already plz!!!!

  8. Clotpoll says:

    Chanos on Squawk this AM, stating one of the things that should be investigated is whether banks are/were shorting themselves.

  9. CAIBC says:

    i wonder how the story will play out here in the NY/NJ/CT area with all the job loses in Manhattan. will we go into a deeper recession…..also, prices here havent fallen as much as in California so we cant put the whole blame on the housing market here. although prices may be changing drastically in the near future

  10. grim says:

    #8 – Cannibalism?

  11. cooper says:

    [6]Ket-
    Actually, can we incorporate and then go to the FED for a no collateral loan and then purchase the property. promptly sell the property to ourselves for pennies and close down the corp?

    a friend and I were just wondering the same thing yesterday… can we from an LLC or corp and buy props with out all the hub bub, bub. anyone know for sure?

  12. CAIBC says:

    7- kettle – also heard that AIG is planning another Spa Retreat coming up here pretty soon…..

  13. Clotpoll says:

    grim (10)-

    I think that qualifies as cannibalism, of a sort. ;)

  14. Clotpoll says:

    Grim- wonder what sort of traffic you’re getting, now that the word “cannibalism” pops up here 15-20 times a day.

    Maybe you should change the subtitle of the blog to “The Forbidden Meat”. Or, “The Meat that Dare Not Speak Its Name”.

  15. CAIBC says:

    Pending home sales index rises 7.4% in August: NAR

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/realtors-say-pending-home-sales-index/story.aspx?guid=41AEF5B8-D76A-4AEA-97AD-40E1510FA22E

    do the realtors on this blog actually believe this? is this true that home sales rose that much in the northeast region?

    something doesnt seem to add up here….credit crunch, prices havent dropped much in these areas, ‘pent up demand’?

    anyone make sense of this?

  16. Cindy says:

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/sox-bks-spx-hgx-indices-fed/index/a/19378

    This article from Minyanville “Debt Crisis vs. Liquidity Crisis” questions the way the bailout funds are being used – and so do I.

    (4) Grim

    We are indeed in a recession here in CA and folks are cutting back. They no longer want the debt that it appears the Fed/Gov would have them jump back into.

    “After two full decades of credit expansion, having finally reached the point where debt was abhorent, the new reality will be a more NORMALIZED credit market, not a return to the grossly abnormal market many of us view as typical.”

    “Think of it this way; it is not “normal” to be able to walk into virtually any retail store in the country and within 10 minutes be able to access $2,000 in credit by simply showing a driver’s license. It is not “normal” to buy a home with zero down money. This is not “normal” behavior. Adjusting to the new reality of normalcy will be a painful process.”

    “On the other hand, Federal Reserve officials, Federal Government officials, many Wall Street executives and salespeople, believe it is “necessary for our economic security” to return to that place of easy credit. I disagree with that. I believe American people disagree with that. And so the disagreement over the Bailout Bill, though pegged in the Mainstream Media as a war between battling economic classes, might really be a much deeper and more significant faceoff: a battle for the economic soul of this country.”

    I was pro-bailout because I depended on the government to make decisions that would help our country through times of economic crisis. I DO NOT SEE returning to the excessive use of credit as the way to cure what ails us.

    Many stores expanded here – they will probably need to close. The foreclosures are selling at 40% or more off of peak prices. People are saving and cutting back.

    This may not be what the government wants but it is what is actually happening.

  17. Clotpoll says:

    CAIBC (15)-

    Why worry about what Realtors believe? What Realtors believe should be your most reliable contraindicator. We have been reliably wrong- every 30 days- for the past three years. Nobody can beat that track record of consistency.

    Look at any US bust market. Sales volume is way up, because 50%+ of the homes that sell are REO, and the houses are selling at prices 50%+ under the peak.

    There is also every possibility that NAR’s NE numbers are either false or miscalculated. We have a track record of that, too.

    Trust yourself. Otherwise, you fall prey to lies, damned lies and statistics.

  18. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (16)-

    That’s the irony of this whole bailout madness: it’s a massive attempt to shore up banks’ trust in each other, so that they will lend to each other and then lend to individuals and businesses that are assumed to have the same thirst for borrowing that they had 3 years ago.

    They want to fire up the sausage grinder again…but there’s no meat to force through the choppers.

  19. CAIBC says:

    Clotpoll, Grim,

    so what are the statistics? home sales are home sales right? someone somewhere bought homes in the northeast…enough to get push the sales numbers up this much…

    Grim, would you be able to put up another edition of ‘Lowball’….the last one you have up certainly did not show anywhere close to 50% off and REOs…..

    Thanks,

    CAIBC

  20. HEHEHE says:

    So now that AIG employees are effectively government employees can they feel free to leave work at 4:30pm?

  21. Pat says:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/wallstreet/081008/sb122342462353813461_id.html?.v=1

    As Dire as the Times May Seem, History Isn’t About to Repeat Itself

  22. John says:

    If you look close at bail out bill they added that if one bank with that is actually profitable buys a bank that is taking huge write-offs versus no gains the acquiring bank can write off the bank losses in the year it purchases the bank. So for example SOV took a 700 million hit in Fannie and Freddie Stock but can’t write if off as it has no stock gains is bought by another bank that has 700 million in profit, the new rule allows the new bank to write off the 700 million loss versus its 700 million gain and wipes out its whole Federal and State tax obligation for 2008. So if company is at 40% tax rate buying SOV reduces your taxes by 280 million. Guess what if you buy SOV for 280 million you get it for free. That is why NCC is up for grabs.

  23. Clotpoll says:

    CAIBC (19)-

    Let’s assume the numbers are right. I can tell you, anecdotally, that August was a very good month for my office. Indeed, we have a good month about every 3-4 months.

    However, the intervening months are a bitch. Volume drops, and fall-throughs are common. Again, these are the conditions in my own little office…but I have good, experienced agents, so I’d think that larger offices with a more variable quality of agent see even bigger swings. From talking to some of my competitors, I believe that to be the case.

    Prices have fallen enough in my area over the past 5-6 months to lure some early, dumb money off the sidelines. The market- what market there is- is almost entirely first-time buyers, so there’s little first-hand experience of pain in the clientele to prevent them from pulling the purchase trigger.

    Personally, if I see a long (5 years-plus) time horizon for ownership, and some common sense, and a decent financial profile, I’ll work with a client looking to buy now. There are plenty of reduced properties that can be sold well and other properties that are much more open to low offers. I can also now put together a comprehesive list of pre-foreclosure/REO in just about any price range, so that’s a good route to take, too.

  24. grim says:

    http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/124790.php

    Good god, they’ve invented the lapsometer, the end really is near.

  25. TED spread at 413bp. Boy, de-valuing the dollar is really helping.

  26. Clotpoll says:

    John (24)-

    “Guess what if you buy SOV for 280 million you get it for free.”

    My take? That’s about what SOV, NCC and their ilk are really worth.

  27. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Libor Dollar Rate Jumps to Highest in Year; Credit Stays Frozen

    he cost of borrowing in dollars for three months in London soared to the highest level this year as coordinated interest-rate reductions worldwide failed to revive lending among banks for any longer than a day.

    The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three-month loans rose 23 basis points to 4.75 percent today, the British Bankers’ Association said. That’s the highest level since Dec. 28. The Libor-OIS spread, a measure of cash scarcity, widened to a record 350 basis points. The overnight rate fell 29 basis points to 5.09 percent. That’s still 359 basis points more than the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 1.5 percent.

  28. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Struggling Iceland takes control of third bank

    Iceland’s government took control of the country’s largest bank Thursday as it struggled to prevent an all-out collapse in its overweight banking system.

    The decision to take over Kaupthing means that all three of Iceland’s major banks are under the protective wing of the tiny Nordic nation’s Financial Supervisory Authority.

  29. CAIBC says:

    clotpoll, i am one of those first time buyers and havent pulled the trigger yet since i am still not convinced that the prices are where they should be…..

    thanks to this site, i havent pulled the trigger for at least two years now…just waiting…

    we work hard and make a decent living….but putting that in prespective of owning a home, i still think prices are way too high for a middle class family like mine (assuming i take a 30 year fixed rate with 20% down loan)

    so i continue to wait, my worry is that i will miss the boat and prices will soar again!

    CAIBC

  30. Cindy says:

    (18) Clot

    “They want to fire up the sausage grinder again…but there’s no meat to force through it.”

    Certainly they will figure it out soon. There are better uses for the money. Our unemployment rate (7.7%) will only go higher and last I heard 200,000 were do to run out of benefits soon. There were so many businesses tied to the mortgage/housing industry.

    What a mess if CA goes into bankruptcy. If only they had done the necessary cuts after the 83-day budget session.

  31. Cindy says:

    Clot – If you hear any disturbing news (Mike Morgan) RE: CalSTRS – let me know..
    Thanks

  32. hughesrep says:

    3b from yesteday:

    #339 hughes: Any particular reason you bought now? Based on your info, you were in the drivers seat. Why buy now?

    We haven’t bought yet. I was just making sure the boots were still watertight.

  33. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 8:03 am
    Maybe you should change the subtitle of the blog to “The Forbidden Meat”. Or, “The Meat that Dare Not Speak Its Name”.

    Investment Banker – the other white meat

  34. Sean says:

    Nom and Ket,

    Follow up to yesterday’s thread regarding a weekend retreat.

    Criteria

    1)Accessibility
    2)Proximity to recreation
    3)Easy access for a bug out
    4)Stands of useful timber
    5)Water
    6)Hunting
    7)Fishing
    8)Arable land

    My family has a place up on Windam Mountain.
    Property is still cheap there, and it borders Catskill park which is large about 300,000 acres. There are about 50k fulltime residents in the entire area, and it has a large deer population, gets over 40 inches of rain annually and has lots of streams, ponds etc to fish in.

    In the event of a bug out defending mountain passes is much easier than defending rolling hills like the Poconos, did you ever see the 80’s movie Red Dawn?

    If you head even further north Adirondack Park is over 6 million acres with about 120k residents in a dozen little towns,and worst case the roads are shut down you can still get there by sailboat by simply heading up the Hudson.

  35. BC Bob says:

    “Chanos on Squawk this AM, stating one of the things that should be investigated is whether banks are/were shorting themselves.”

    Clot,

    Why is an investigation required?

  36. DL says:

    New Jersey state motto: “NJ: the State that devours its own.” I wonder when residents will demand the law of gravity be applied to school boards? In one municipality we are considering the School Board essentially has a blank check. It claims 2/3rds of its budget is mandated and non-negotiable and raises taxes at the drop of a hat.

  37. John says:

    More to it, it is not about fundamentals. In SOV case for some insane reason deposits in a Savings band don’t count as deposits when a commerical bank buys it. So Citi, Chase, BAC, Wells who are already above the 10% of total deposit rule can buy SOV which has already taken its huge goodwill, CDO and auto loan write-offs take the deposits which re-capitalizes it and don’t need approval and gets a big tax write off. In NCC case if they are about to fail anyhow picking them up for three bucks a share taking the write off getting the deposits and more importantly saving the FDIC’s butt will grant you favors in the future Jaimie Dimon style.

    From a straight up businessman’s point of view none of this makes sense.

    Clotpoll Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 8:29 am
    John (24)-

    “Guess what if you buy SOV for 280 million you get it for free.”

    My take? That’s about what SOV, NCC and their ilk are really worth.

  38. still_looking says:

    I ran across this in the wee hours of the morning and was wondering just how stupid our representatives are?

    According to this article, you could forget getting ANYTHING back from our 700 billion dollar investment.

    True?

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/its-a-great-time-to-be-afraid.aspx

    It’s a great time to be afraid

    In some situations, fear is the appropriate response — and this is one of them. Why? The bailout plan is riddled with loopholes, and new crises are brewing for US cities, states and oil refiners.

    Loopholes in a ‘joke’ bailout
    Emilio knows all about the intersection of fear, lies and action. He worked as an energy trader for Enron back in the day, and lived to tell the tale. He now trades gasoline futures for a major refiner, and he chuckled at the spectacle of legislators appearing to believe they were stanching the credit crisis with their vote. “If you really read the bill, and understand how it will be interpreted, it’s the scariest thing you ever saw,” said the trader, who asked me not to use his real name. “These guys have no idea what they’re unleashing.”

    * Talk back: Is fear at the root of the financial crisis?

    Emilio knows, because he learned from the master manipulators at Enron. For an example, he said, check out Section 113 of the bailout bill, titled “Minimization of long-term costs and maximization of benefits for taxpayers.” This is the section that Congress haggled into the bill to ensure a payoff, via warrants, for citizens if mortgages purchased from banks are later sold for a profit. Yet Emilio says bank lobbyists snookered the government by sneaking in an exception under subsection 3a, “Conditions on purchase authority for warrants and debt instruments.” The clause, titled “Exceptions — De Minimis,” states that any debt instruments worth less than $100 million won’t trigger the payback provision.
    More from MSN Money
    Market crisis © Radius Images/Jupiterimages

    * Everything’s changed now — for the worse
    * Poof! There go Americans’ dreams
    * Are we headed for an epic bear market?
    * One L of a global banking crisis
    * Warning: Worldwide wipeout ahead

    Emilio says that banks will simply issue their debt in tranches of $99 million or less, and avoid allowing the government — and thus taxpayers — to get a piece of the banks’ profits. “It’s a joke,” he scoffed.

    Other traders who scanned the bill came to the same conclusion, through their own prisms, agreeing that the bill would provide only an illusion of action while failing to address the key problems facing the financial system: Too many houses will remain on the market; they were bought with too much leverage that is vaporizing in spurts; and those losses have left banks with too little capital from which they can lend.
    Sign up to receive Jon Markman’s weekly SuperModels newsletter.

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    Even worse, the traders pointed out, the government can make money on the loans only if it pays so little for them that they can be sold at a much higher price. And yet if the government doesn’t pay enough, then the banks won’t receive enough to make a difference in their balance sheets. So here’s how the taxpayers will be cheated, they said: Banks will take advantage of the suspension of mark-to-market accounting by stating that loans originally held at “par,” or the equivalent of the purchase price, and now valued by the market at 20 cents on the dollar, will really be worth 85 cents if held until the loan matures. The banks will then sell the loans to the government at a fake discount of 75 cents on the dollar.

    “The lobbyists made sure this bill was rammed through so that these rip-offs couldn’t be fixed in committee,” said another trader. “Everyone on the Street knows it solves nothing.

    sl

  39. still_looking says:

    sorry for the poor cut/paste… I left a lot of gristle in with the meat.

    sl

  40. still_looking says:

    grim, 26 HUH???

    sl

  41. grim says:

    Sales at Abercrombie down 14%?

    Good lord, it is a depression.

  42. grim says:

    sl,

    Doubt anyone but Clot would get that reference.

  43. still_looking says:

    grim 45, oh, ok.

    sl

  44. BC Bob says:

    “Too many houses will remain on the market; they were bought with too much leverage that is vaporizing in spurts; and those losses have left banks with too little capital from which they can lend.”

    sl [40],

    Exactly. Absolutely nobody is addressing the main culprit; the attached collateral continues to decay.

  45. #44 – BeBe sales were down %10. It’s madness I tell you, madness!

  46. grim says:

    Mixed bag on the jobless numbers.. From Marketwatch:

    U.S. weekly jobless claims fall 20,000 to 478,000

    U.S. 4-wk. avg. jobless claims rise 8,250 to 482,500

    U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 56,000 to 3.65 mln

    U.S. 4-wk. avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 3.56 mln

  47. cooper says:

    new robin hood?

    CHICAGO, Illinois (CNN) — Sheriff Thomas J. Dart said Wednesday he is suspending foreclosure evictions in Cook County, which had been on track to reach a record number of evictions, many because of mortgage foreclosures.
    He said many of the evictions involve renters who are paying their rent on time but are being thrown out because the landlord has fallen behind on mortgage payments.

    Mortgage companies are supposed to identify a building’s occupants before asking for an eviction, but sheriff’s deputies routinely find that the mortgage companies have not done so, he said.

    “These mortgage companies only see pieces of paper, not people, and don’t care who’s in the building,” Dart said. “They simply want their money and don’t care who gets hurt along the way.

    “On top of it all, they want taxpayers to fund their investigative work for them. We’re not going to do their jobs for them anymore. We’re just not going to evict innocent tenants. It stops today.”

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/08/chicago.evictions/index.html

  48. Cindy says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=special_report&sid=azJxD5tIXIeI

    Quite the history lesson from 12/07

    “Subprime securities market began as “Group of 5″ over Chinese.”

  49. grim says:

    new robin hood?

    While honorable in intent, I can’t help but wonder about the unintended consequences. Moves like this may just cause banks to be even more cautious in their lending, either by restricting loans or charging higher premiums to offset the effect. The more difficult it becomes for a bank to foreclose on a property, the more the loan begins to act and feel like an unsecured loan, with rates approaching.

  50. gary says:

    Does anyone know if Abercrombie sells meat?

  51. BC Bob says:

    “Luxury leaders Neiman Marcus Inc. and Saks Inc. said Wednesday that their sales declines moved into double digits last month, reminiscent of post-9/11 declines in 2001 and 2002. Both companies said they are bracing for weaker sales for the rest of the year.”

    “Its main rival, New York-based Saks, said its September same-store sales fell 10.9 percent, while analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 6.8 percent decline.”

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/100908dnbusneimansales.f18a1dd1.html

  52. cooper says:

    good, at least they’re making sure the sign is right… Wouldn’t want to mislead anybody.

    U.S. debt overpowers National Debt Clock

    As a short-term fix, the digital dollar sign on the billboard-style clock near Times Square has been switched to a figure — the “1” in $10 trillion.

    It’s marking the federal government’s current debt at about $10.2 trillion.

    The Durst Organization says it plans to update the sign next year by adding two digits.

    That will make it capable of tracking debt up to a quadrillion dollars.

    The late Manhattan real estate developer Seymour Durst put the sign up in 1989 to call attention to what was then a $2.7 trillion debt.

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/09/national.debt.clock.ap/index.html

  53. cooper says:

    52 Grim… agreed, when the law breaks the law chaos ensues.

  54. 3b says:

    #17 clot: I know it is a few months off, but any thoughts on what house prices will look like in our area come Spring 2009.

    If for some bizzare reason we do not start to see significant declines in prices going forward, especially with all that is unfolding, than for soem bizzare reason we never will.

  55. grim says:

    Ouch..

    From MarketWatch:

    Hope is that recovery will begin by end of 2009: IMF

  56. 3b says:

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2844692&id=999999

    gary: This one is for you, brand new to the market. Bring your check book. Don’t forget this is a blue ribbon train town.

  57. SG says:

    Bloomberg article,

    Easy Money Causes Bubble; Easy Money Cures Bust: Caroline Baum

    Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Haven’t we seen this movie before?

    Central bank runs easy monetary policy.

    Easy money inflates asset bubble.

    Central bank tightens monetary policy.

    Asset bubble bursts.

    Central bank runs easy monetary policy to offset effects of burst bubble.

    Easy money inflates bubble.

  58. 3b says:

    #18 clot: ANd I would think the only way they could lend to consumers again like they had, is to throw lending standards out the window;again.

    So we start the cycle over again, and have a collapse on the collapse??

  59. make money says:

    BC 54

    I haven’t bear the pharse “don’t underestimate the US consumer” in a while.

    Capitulation is coming.

    We need to get together with Booyaa Bob and pick up some toys on the cheap.

  60. 3b says:

    #31 CAIBC: I Canno see anyhting on the horizon that would make one belive that prices are going to soar again any time soon; as in years form now.

  61. SG says:

    Canada may face housing bust: Shiller

    The Canadian housing market could face a similar housing bust to the United States, particularly in more bubbly markets as Vancouver and Calgary, said Robert Shiller, the Yale University professor who predicted both the 1990s stock market boom and bust and the US housing slump.

  62. DINJ says:

    #60
    Reminds me of Homer Simpson’s
    “ah..alcohol, the cause of and answer to, all of life’s problems…”

  63. 3b says:

    #38 Next School Budget vote in 2009 should be interesting. Already the nead of the NJTU, is already talking about now more than ever because of these desperate economic times, we must pass the school budgets and increase spending.

  64. BC Bob says:

    “Hope is that recovery will begin by end of 2009: IMF”

    JB,

    Key word is hope. This may not be daddy’s recession, possibly granddaddy’s?

  65. BC Bob says:

    “We need to get together with Booyaa Bob and pick up some toys on the cheap.”

    make [62],

    Actually I’m thinking of making that trip to Iceland with you.

    Where is BOOYAAA? Dancing in the streets?

  66. DL says:

    And remember, higher spending on schools maintains property values. If you don’t pay your district superintendent $100k plus, the value of your house might drop. Glad we dodged that bullet.

  67. SG says:

    The political impact of California’s housing meltdown

    California’s housing market boomed almost more than any other state, but all that changed two years ago. The housing bust is now rippling across the state’s economy.

    No one really knows when the housing crisis will end, but the riskiest home loans dried up a year ago. He doesn’t see a bottom “until all of the foreclosures are washed out of the system”, and he estimates that it will take at least another year for that to happen. “Maybe 2010, we can see a bottom. Perhaps?”

  68. Cindy says:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/04/AR2008100400084.html?nav=hcmodule

    Front page of the Bee Business section today:
    “20 Tips to cut costs, save money.”

    My favorite: The latest thing in kitchens: less remodeling, more cooking.

  69. gary says:

    3b [59],

    With apologies to everyone reading this blog right now, I just gotta come out and say it: these sellers need to be b*tch slapped something fierce. They’re f*cking idiots, plain and simple. They’ve got to be living under a rock. In six months from now, the price will be at $579,000 and these f*cking mor*ns will be wondering why someone isn’t jumping on this “gem”.

  70. Hard Place says:

    kettle1,

    A couple days ago you said you may be able to get some info on districts with programs for special needs. I wasn’t able to get your email, can you just drop me a quick message to myjunk71 @ hotmail.com? That is my junk email address and than I’ll email you from my regular email. Much appreciated.

  71. DL says:

    Euro-gloating over the fall of capitalism and the U.S. economy was at a 52 week high until this week. Now that the banks are starting to line up for government re-capitalization, there is concern among the pass book savering class that cash is not safe and if it is, it won’t be worth anything. Bring back the Reichmark.

  72. Hard Place says:

    gary,

    not only the sellers, but the seller’s agents who agree that is a reasonable listing price. If the lint building up in their pockets isn’t a sign that they should lower asking prices.

  73. Sean says:

    re: # 71 Cindy – I disagree with a few of those points in that article

    “Discourage wild critters from homesteading in your attic”

    I welcome the homesteaders they will make for nice roasting around the holidays.

    and “Entertain at home”

    There is no way I want the neghbors coveting my stuff,the corner bar will just have to do.

  74. DL says:

    I suspect falling RE prices will keep sellers from listing and the only properties available will be foreclosures, short sales, and estate settlements.

  75. SG says:

    Asia’s revenge

    The links between the financial fragility in the US and previous emerging market crises mean that the current banking and economic traumas should not be seen as just the product of risky monetary policy, lax regulation and irresponsible finance, important though these were. They have roots in the way the global economy has worked in the era of financial deregulation. Any country that receives a huge and sustained inflow of foreign lending runs the risk of a subsequent financial crisis, because external and domestic financial fragility will grow. Precisely such a crisis is now happening to the US and a number of other high-income countries including the UK.

  76. Cindy says:

    Gary – If it is any consolation – it all began to unravel here rather quickly. Banks held onto the property for quite a while. It took some deep-cut sales numbers to establish some comps I guess. AND I truly do not believe the banks were staffed to handle this business.

    Remember – We flew up fast – and then fell fast. That last year, 2005 to 2006, by some estimates, increased by 25-30%… in one year. That is what fell away…now we are in a bit of a downward spiral. My hope is that we don’t overshoot and end up in 1998.

  77. 3b says:

    #72 gary: I was so shocked by that listing, that I have received permission from my better half to go to the open house on Sunday, and politely ask the realtor, how that asking price can possibly be justified in this current environemnt.

    They would not hav even gotten anywhere near this price at the peak.

  78. Cindy says:

    Anything I say regarding the CA R/E market is purely anecdotal. I am simply an observer – Clot and Grim probably know more about CA R/E than I do…

  79. make money says:

    Actually I’m thinking of making that trip to Iceland with you.

    I guess we thought alike yesterday. Up 140 at 3:00PM and down 200 at 4:00PM.

    340 points in 60 minutes.

    I only wish that he would have scheduled his speach at 2:30PM.

    as far as Iceland I think I’m gonna hold off, my wife really wants to go to Ireland and Spain. I said no problem.

    Long live the Shiny stuff.

  80. Veto says:

    CAIBC, in response to your post…
    “thanks to this site, i havent pulled the trigger for at least two years now… just waiting… my worry is that i will miss the boat and prices will soar again!”

    I’m in the same situation as you, also grateful for this site, we’re potential first time buyers and have refused to buy since 2004, still waiting on the sidelines. I am certainly not worried about prices rebounding again anytime soon but am worried about protecting our roughly 25% downpayment, and hoping our leaders eventually get this rescue package to at least stabilize this deep recession coming our way. Also worried about mortgage rates jumping into double digits.

  81. Essex says:

    you gotta pay to play veto

  82. Essex says:

    3b…it is supposed to be a nice weekend….can’t you think of anything better to do with your time?

  83. Victorian says:

    Veto (83)-
    “Also worried about mortgage rates jumping into double digits.”

    If this happens, RE prices will fall dramatically. With unemployment soaring and no wage increases in sight, this will absolutely kill the nominal prices. You can always re-finance later, but your principal will remain the same.

  84. Shore Guy says:

    I don’t know if this was posted yesterday or earlier. I am in between meetings:

    New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J.
    Least Affordable
    Rank: 1
    Median home price: $481,000
    Median household income: $63,000
    Share of homes affordable to median-income families: 11.4%

    http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/08/0829_affordable_metros/12.htm

  85. gary says:

    Shore Guy [87],

    F*cking pathetic and sickening. This makes my blood boil. Anybody who buys a house in our area… still… is outta their minds.

  86. Shore Guy says:

    “these sellers need to be b*tch slapped something fierce. They’re f*cking idiots, plain and simple”

    Gary,

    You need to learn how to come to the point and make your position clear. All this pu$$y footing around makes it hard to figure out where you stand on things ;-)

    Just kidding, obviously

  87. NJ kiwi says:

    The whole issue arising in chicago (#50) raises the issue for us- can a bank kick us out of our rental that is in preforeclosure when it/if it goes into foreclosure? It has been in preforeclosure since mid April, (we just found out the other day- not through the owners) and the owners have still made all repairs (new AC etc) so it could be possible that they are mediating with the trustee. Otherwise they are just being very nice to us and throwing money down the drain on these repairs. Makes no sense to me. However if it is still in this ‘lis’ stage, it seems to me that foreclosure is just around the corner and I would like somewhere to put the Christmas tree

  88. gary says:

    Shore Guy,

    Yes, I’m too subtle, I know! ;)

    The least affordable was the New York City-White Plains (N.Y.)-Wayne (N.J.) metro area, where only 11.4% of homes are affordable to median-income earners. (A decade ago, 66.4% of New York-area homes were affordable).

    Go ahead idiots, sign on the dotted line.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    As long as people keep stretching, and working themselves into an early grave, in order to afford RE in the area, it will take all the longer for prices to corect. Just like $10 beer at NFL games, if people keep buying, why not charge it?

  90. Shore Guy says:

    So, anyone here think the Dow will be at 8,9XX by the closing bell tomorrow?

  91. 3b says:

    #93 Shore: Are there that many of these people left? And if so will they still get approval for the loan, will they still have a job?

    It seems bizzare to me that we are on the verge of an economic collapse, and real estate somehow can remain unscathed.

    This was not the case during the last housing bust and recession. And we are in much more dire straits now than we were at that time.

  92. gary says:

    Shore Guy,

    You’re exactly right. And I’m shocked at the mentality of a lot of our friends. When it comes to the art of finance, I sit there with my mouth open and dare not say a word. Basically, their philosophy is “make a dollar, spend a dollar”.

    One couple is scheduled to close on a house in 2 weeks, which they over-paid for, have not yet received an offer on their current house, will carry two mortgages until they sell and then will refinance and pay more closing costs to put additional money into the new house. Go ahead, analyze that one. I shake my head in disbelief.

  93. 3b says:

    #85 Essex: It is near by, and it will only take a few minutes. Than I will enjoy the rest of my weekend.

    I am usually a very easy going person, but this to me was just so grossly over priced, that I will POLITELY ask why.

    Nothing wrong that I can see with calling the realtor out on it.

  94. NJGator says:

    Shore 94 – Stu does.

  95. John says:

    Does anyone like NYSE EuronextNYX (NYSE) at 27.60?

  96. Al says:

    It finally happen – NJ and area Around NYC is the most expensive area int eh country. I believe thouse data for CA do nto reflect real prices there now as they have fallen a lot in CA recently. but not in NJ. I chose to move here in 2006 because it seemed mroe affordable than CA back than. Now I am looking for job there as well.

    Read that paper – Even Newark region in in the 6 most expensive regions. I would argue that quality of life in CA for a person not working in NYC is a lot better that in Newark area.

  97. make money says:

    So, anyone here think the Dow will be at 8,9XX by the closing bell tomorrow?

    Shore,

    Markets will rally in the next couple of weeks and it wil lhave a huge one day rally of at least 5%.

    I strongly suggest sidelines and shiny stuff.

  98. Al says:

    And in Addition – houses in CA are all newe and bigger – not 1920-40 capes and colonials weher you can nto even fin furniture into the room – we have moved all our furniture from west when we moved here and we are having biggest trouble arranging it as it is way to big for rooms in NJ.

  99. NJGator says:

    Gary 95 – I still think our shore friends take the cake. Sold a POS cape in 2003 for over 100k in profit and bought a POS Split for 395k, but put less than 20% down. Have since refinanced 5 times. They currently have 2 loans – the first is 417k and and the second is for 35k. They are dead. The refi spigot is off and I am sure their credit cards will be cut soon too.

  100. Al says:

    One couple is scheduled to close on a house in 2 weeks, which they over-paid for, have not yet received an offer on their current house, will carry two mortgages until they sell and then will refinance and pay more closing costs to put additional money into the new house. Go ahead, analyze that one. I shake my head in disbelief.

    They will just take the refi money, and default on their old house. They got their new hosue already.

    You wonder what lender is thinking by giving them mortgage – ohh wait the lender on their new home is not the same as holder of their old mortgage.

  101. DuckVader says:

    Very good article by Gillian Tett from the FT:
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e27751fe-9563-11dd-aedd-000077b07658.html

    “The first is that the UK government has acknowledged something the Americans remain reluctant to admit: that when a banking crisis is this bad, it makes more sense to recapitalise banks by buying preference shares than by purchasing their duff assets. ”

    Why do Bernanke and Paulson focus on asset purchases and not recapitalization?

  102. NJGator says:

    Shore – Stu has changed his mind. He thinks we may actually see 8,9XX today.

  103. Does anyone know what’s up with Morgan?
    Is the Lehman dealio tomorrow going to kill them?

  104. Al says:

    White House may take stakes in banks

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27094961/

    I i thought I have I have immigrated from USSR…

    Flew in from Miami Beach BOAC
    Didn’t get to bed last night
    Oh, the way the paper bag was on my knee
    Man, I had a dreadful flight
    I’m back in the USSR
    You don’t know how lucky you are, boy
    Back in the USSR, yeah

    Been away so long I hardly knew the place
    Gee, it’s good to be back home
    Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case
    Honey disconnect the phone
    I’m back in the USSR
    You don’t know how lucky you are, boy
    Back in the US
    Back in the US
    Back in the USSR

    Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
    They leave the west behind
    And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
    They Georgia’s always on my my my my my my my my my mind
    Oh, come on
    Hu Hey Hu, hey, ah, yeah
    yeah, yeah, yeah
    I’m back in the USSR
    You don’t know how lucky you are, boys
    Back in the USSR

    Well the Ukraine girls really knock me out
    They leave the west behind
    And Moscow girls make me sing and shout
    They Georgia’s always on my my my my my my my my my mind

    Oh, show me round your snow peaked
    mountain way down south
    Take me to you daddy’s farm
    Let me hear you balalaika’s ringing out
    Come and keep your comrade warm
    I’m back in the USSR
    Hey, You don’t know how lucky you are, boy
    Back in the USSR
    Oh, let me tell you honey

    Gotta Love the Great Ones…

  105. Al says:

    except for Ukrainian/Russian girls… Man, do I feel ripped-off now….

  106. kettle1 says:

    NJ Kiwi,

    In NJ the bank cannot kick you out of the house until your lease is up. If you like the house you are in then go to the landlord and ask for a 2 year lease and sign immediately, superseding or amending the current lease. NJ law will force the bank to honor it.

    I am not an attorney. If you are not confident in this call a rental attorney and ask them it will probably cost you $100 for an hour. sounds like it would be worth it for your piece of mind.

    Also consider that they home owners may not be aware of the situation. I saw that with some people who live on my street (used to) they didnt know they were being foreclosed on until a notice got posted on their door. Guess they dont open their mail or answer the phone.

  107. kettle1 says:

    Well if we are going to become russian why dont we go all the way…..

    Russia is currently rolling advertising campaigns to try and increase the birth rate!!!! I.e The government is telling people to have more S3X. SOunds like a bailout party to me.

    russia’s population is currently entering terminal decline

  108. kettle1 says:

    Clot et al

    What is the best way to check if someone is in pre-foreclosure?

  109. Sean says:

    re #104 Duckvader – re: “Bernanke and Paulson focus on asset purchases and not recapitalization.”

    They are doing both, first buy up the bad assests then recapitalize.

    There was a story on Bloomberg yesterday and a blub today on how Pauslon and Blair have the power without Congressional approval to use “systemic risk” powers to protect depositors and unsecured creditors “as appropriate,” A temporary nationalization of much of the banking system is happening.

    Get ready for GOSBANK II. Госбанк, Государственный банк

  110. skep-tic says:

    dear limeys: new oasis album rocks– thanks. depeche mode fans can go sit in the corner and cry.

  111. Veto says:

    Victorian, In response to your post…
    “If mortgage rates jumpt to double digits, RE prices will fall dramatically and will absolutely kill the nominal prices”

    Its a good point and i keep telling myself that will happen. I guess the question is how much and how quickly prices actually come down after the costs of financing rises or avaibility of morgages decreases.

  112. Outofstater says:

    #35 Chi and Clot:

    “Investment banker – the other white meat.”

    Weasel – the other yellow meat.

  113. John says:

    New York Jets owner Woody Johnson says fans won’t pass up the chance to buy personal seat licenses for the team’s new stadium even as the global credit crisis threatens the economy.

    Why do I feel I guy whose first name is “Woody” and last name is “Johnson” is going to screw the season ticketholders?

  114. Tony Orlando says:

    Well said Great information, keep up the great work!

  115. John says:

    OK bond of the day a NJ Tax free Muni at 11%, even Mr. Chicago Finance is scratching his head at that tax free yield.

    645905-5T-3 NEW JERSEY ECONOMIC DEV AUTH REV TAXABLE-1ST MTG-GALLOWAY HLTH 10.000% 08/01/2013 94.578 / 94.578 96.750 / 96.750 10.86% / 10.86%

  116. Clotpoll says:

    CAIBC (31)-

    Stop worrying so much. RE trends are notoriously “sticky”. Remember the analogy of the time/effort it takes to turn a battleship.

    When the environment is better, you’ll have ample time to recognize it and act.

  117. chicagofinance says:

    gary Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 9:09 am
    Does anyone know if Abercrombie sells meat?

    I can see how some would say yes…..

  118. chicagofinance says:

    John Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 11:10 am
    OK bond of the day a NJ Tax free Muni at 11%, even Mr. Chicago Finance is scratching his head at that tax free yield.

    JJ: Who is the insurer?

  119. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (33)-

    Will do. However, to be safe, you might want to assume they use CALPERS’ investment models.

    Perhaps you can find CalSTRS current balance sheet and an abstract of their investment mix/performance somewhere.

  120. chicagofinance says:

    Clot: If it is a state sponsored Defined Benefit plan, don’t send her on a death march. She is going to be fine under any and all circumstances.

  121. make money says:

    http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/10/08/business/AS-India-Citigroup.php

    Tata picking up some toys from Citigroup for cheap. In my view Citi has enterered Clot’s Zombie zone of dead man walking.

  122. Clotpoll says:

    John (39)-

    A big part of the problem here is that the FDIC has turned into the equivalent of a very sophisticated pimp, albeit a pimp whose only aim is to broker liaisons between malnourished h0okers that he has not invested as much as a Happy Meal in…to predators who want to r@pe the hooker, cut out the vital organs and toss the rest into a dumpster.

  123. renter says:

    Gary,
    You are not alone! People always say “you are throwing your money away on rent.” I have tried to switch the subject but people have been pretty insistent on trying to persuade us we should buy. I said the following to someone the other day: “We can’t afford a home. I would rather be renting and putting $1000 a month in the bank then buy and be unable to sleep because I was living on the edge.” The conversation ended. I might just try that the next time someone lays into us over renting.

  124. Secondary Market says:

    #127
    i’m so full of defense ammunition at this point that when the topic comes up, my wife usually has to pinch me to stop my diatribe to the unsuspecting victim. i attack back and usually have the home owner seriously questioning their purchase.

  125. John says:

    Don’t even know rating, but that is an insane rate no matter whatand mind you that town has the huge mega marriot seaview resort so they have a tax base.

    chicagofinance Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 11:20 am
    John Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 11:10 am
    OK bond of the day a NJ Tax free Muni at 11%, even Mr. Chicago Finance is scratching his head at that tax free yield.

    JJ: Who is the insurer?

  126. Mitchell says:

    Corzine announce that the reduced employment and economy means NJ needs to raise taxes and tolls yet?

  127. kettle1 says:

    I bet you could get some sweet vacation deals in Iceland right now if you pay in 1/10th oz gold coins when you show up……

  128. kettle1 says:

    Grim,

    Shall we setup the next GTG for reychavik

  129. Barbara says:

    I always wanted to visit Greenland, do an ecotourism thing. I hear its melting away.

  130. chicagofinance says:

    John Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 11:33 am
    Don’t even know rating, but that is an insane rate no matter whatand mind you that town has the huge mega marriot seaview resort so they have a tax base.

    JJ: Even though it is a muni, it could be taxable….also, I would bet it is junk….

  131. kettle1 says:

    Appropriate location for Iceland GTG???

    http://en.hotelborg.is/ (Hotel Borg)

  132. Veto says:

    Some positive feedback on plan B…

    Treasury Finally Sees Light: A New-and-Improved Bailout Plan
    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/93027/Treasury-Finally-Sees-Light-A-New-and-Improved-Bailout-Plan?tickers=xlf,%5Edji,%5Egspc

  133. Essex says:

    96…OK — just looking out for your sanity…..;-)

  134. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (48)-

    Nothing beats a fat, 45 y/o laby in a BeBe top.

    Like trying to trap melted lard with chain link fencing.

  135. House Hunter says:

    always new there was an agenda on the part of PIMCO, now it is in print:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/27091604

  136. Clotpoll says:

    grim (52)-

    I’d say that the gbmint’s entry into the unsecured loan/bad cc debt/toxic car loan business is far more deleterious:

    “The more difficult it becomes for a bank to foreclose on a property, the more the loan begins to act and feel like an unsecured loan, with rates approaching.”

  137. DL says:

    Ref 130. No but he did announce that the State needed to increase public spending because of the decline in private economic activity. In other words, spend money he doesn’t have faster. ANd this from a former head of GS. Any wonder why Paulson is doing the things he does?

  138. Clotpoll says:

    3b (57)-

    Post-nuclear wasteland by then.

  139. NJkiwi says:

    Kettle, well you are correct, they don’t open their mail, so it is possible that they don’t know. As long as I can’t be kicked out, thats fine. It would seem that if this started in April, then the actual foreclosure is right around the corner? from what I have read it is about 8 months or so for the whole process.
    I found out the details from realtytrac.com. You can get a 7 day free membership to get info on all foreclosures. I did this then immediately canceled, but you still get the 7 day trial. Even without the trial you can see street names just not house number and loan, selling info etc. It even tells you the trustees name.

  140. Clotpoll says:

    DL (77)-

    Your scenario seems to be in the first stages of coming to pass.

    GSMLS inventories have steadily declined for over a week now. I had expected them to be building to the year’s high (just over 37K).

    Why is this happening? From my observation, sellers who’ve been trying to sell- and are solvent- are now coming off the market “for good”. That leaves a higher percentage of pre-FK, REO and otherwise distressed properties in the mix.

  141. BC Bob says:

    No link;

    REALITY CHECK, INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVE: If you had purchased $1000 of Delta Airlines stock one year ago, you would have $49 today. If you had purchased $1000 of AIG stock one year ago, you would have $33 today. If you had purchased $1000 of Lehman Brothers stock one year ago, you will have $0 today. However, if you had purchased $1000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling, you would have received $214 today at redemptions. Based on the above, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily & recycle. It is called the 401-KEG Plan.

  142. John says:

    Somehow I can picture Hank Paulson singing this song.

    Brother bought a coconut
    He bought it for a dime.
    His sister had another
    She paid it for a lime.

    She put the lime in the coconut
    And drank them both up.

    Called the doctor, woke him up, and said
    “Doctor, ain’t there nothing I can take”
    I say, “Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?”
    I say, “Doctor ain’t there nothing I can take”
    I say, “Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?”

    Now let me get this straight;
    You put the lime in the coconut
    You drank them both up
    You put the lime in the coconut,
    You drank them both up
    You put the lime in the coconut,
    called your doctor, woke him up, and said,

    “Doctor, ain’t there nothing I can take”
    I say, Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?”
    I say, Doctor, ain’t there nothin’ I can take”
    I say, Doctor, to relieve this belly ache?”

    You put the lime in the coconut, and drink them both down,
    You put the lime in the coconut, you’re such a silly woman!
    Put the lime in the coconut, and drink them both together,
    Put the lime in the coconut, and call me in the morning.”

  143. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (94)-

    Yes. Who the f- wants to be long going into this 3-day weekend? Monday’s holiday will just be an extra news cycle for CNBC to report more on the collapse of civilization.

  144. Clotpoll says:

    Duck (104)-

    Beacuse it means that their pals cannot rob us blind:

    “Why do Bernanke and Paulson focus on asset purchases and not recapitalization?”

  145. make money says:

    Pacific Investment Management Co, or Pimco, a unit of German insurer Allianz, oversees more than $812 billion in assets.

    FED is trusting the germans to manage our CP bailout vehicle.

    Why don’t I like this idea.

  146. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (111)-

    Check the lis pendens rolls at the county clerk’s office.

    Many counties post it online.

  147. Clotpoll says:

    Chi (124)-

    I think the phrase “fine under any circumstances” has been rendered obsolete.

    I view CA’s full faith and credit with a jaundiced eye at best. I used to live in CA, and that state cannot handle even the mildest of downturns. How they get through this is anyone’s guess.

    I’d think that knowing my pension fund’s positions- even if the news is good- is worth the death march, anyway.

  148. 3b says:

    #100 Al; Than to me that just tells me we are going to crash at least as hard as Califiornia. Simply not sustainable. If only 11% or so of people in the NYC metro area can afford the median priced house, than prices will have to decline dramatically.

  149. 3b says:

    #146 clot: sellers who’ve been trying to sell- and are solvent- are now coming off the market “for good

    They can come back in 10 or 15 years.

  150. max says:

    at what point do they just stop paying the mortgage? when your underwater.,,,
    at this rate ,, you could stay in the house for about 2 years,,

  151. Njkiwi says:

    Ah clot the fountain of information. I just went to the morris county website and sure enough there was the lis pendens for the house that we are renting, followed 2 months later by a discharge.

  152. Rich52 says:

    ‘Basically, their philosophy is “make a dollar, spend a dollar’

    Gary #95,

    Should be more like: “make a dollar, spend two”.

  153. Hard Place says:

    From my observation, sellers who’ve been trying to sell- and are solvent- are now coming off the market “for good”. That leaves a higher percentage of pre-FK, REO and otherwise distressed properties in the mix.

    Sellers on Fantasy Island, please de-list your homes.

  154. John says:

    http://events.sifma.org/2008/292/event.aspx?id=5248

    Hammering Hank at a conference in NY, NJ RE Report should send someone

  155. BB says:

    Anyone checked out the Morris County Sheriff’s Sale website this week? They have this new big green banner. Seems like they are starting to get overwhelmed. I was on the site last week or the week before & don’t remember seeing.

    http://www.mcsheriff.org/sales/

  156. kettle1 says:

    Clot

    Morris county records show that there is a “TAX” Tax Sales Certificate for unpaid water bills (dated sep 2007) on the house i rent.

    My understanding is that after a given period of time the holder of the “TAX” has the right to foreclose on the property. IS this correct? Are there any other implications?

    There are no transactions after this one in public records

  157. meter says:

    “so what are the statistics? home sales are home sales right?”

    Haven’t made my way through the whole thread yet so I apologize if someone already addressed this, but the statistic cited is for *pending* home sales. Just wait til some of those mortgage loans are denied or deals fall through for other reasons.

  158. Laughing all the way says:

    The whole issue arising in chicago (#50) raises the issue for us- can a bank kick us out of our rental that is in preforeclosure when it/if it goes into foreclosure? It has been in preforeclosure since mid April, (we just found out the other day- not through the owners) and the owners have still made all repairs (new AC etc) so it could be possible that they are mediating with the trustee. Otherwise they are just being very nice to us and throwing money down the drain on these repairs. Makes no sense to me. However if it is still in this ‘lis’ stage, it seems to me that foreclosure is just around the corner and I would like somewhere to put the Christmas tree

    damn, that is scary. we’re renting and a piece of mail came to our place for the owner and it was regarding an ARM reset. sort of freaked us out.

    is it out of bounds for us to ask the owner about this? how else could we deal with it? he lives less than 4 mins away and i can’t imagine that he is in trouble – but our rent is low for bucks county and it is a 3 bedroom townhouse.

  159. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (161)-

    In theory, yes. Practically speaking, probably not.

    Whoever ends up buying that house- or the lender, if they end up foreclosing- will have to pay the cert. in order to clear title.

    Even though it’s listed as a tax cert, it is a water cert.

  160. rhymingrealtor says:

    “The American Dream of homeownership should not be crushed under the weight of a Bad Mortgage”

    John McCain
    10/09/2008
    1:05PM

    The above is for anyone who did not get to hear it live, as I just did.

    KL

  161. rhymingrealtor says:

    “The American Dream of homeownership should not be crushed under the weight of a Bad Mortgage”

    John M*Ca*n
    10/09/2008
    1:05PM

    The above is for anyone who did not get to hear it live, as I just did.

    KL

  162. lostinny says:

    165
    Well then Papa John
    Why don’t you bring prices back to reality so those of us that haven’t spent more then we could afford, can jump on a good mortgage?
    Dolt.

  163. Olivia says:

    I’m looking at the PDF for Princeton’s “Trends in New Jersey Migration” report, and the destination rankings on Page 22 were rather surprising.

    Since everyone seems to be threatening to move to North Carolina, I thought it would have placed higher than No. 5.

    What shocked me was that New York came in third, behind Florida and Pennsylvania. My first thought was that unbelievably, there’s still a steady stream of NJ-bred young professionals following the script and moving to NYC after college (with their wealthy parents helping them out, of course).

    But given the statistic is for the STATE of NY, I’m curious as to how much of that group settled upstate. It seems people are more likely to move to a subdivision outside Charlotte than to, say, Utica.

  164. The American Dream of homeownership should not be crushed under the weight of a Bad Mortgage

    I’m glad party comrade M feels this way.

  165. lostinny says:

    167 Olivia
    I think there’s also a large group of retirees from NY (and other areas) that historically have headed to Florida.

  166. lostinny says:

    Tosh
    Have you checked sibor lately? These people are still dreaming.

  167. Shore Guy says:

    # 147

    John,

    As sad as it is to say, that song played a big part in my youth. I saw those lyrics and the memories came flooding back. I guess that officially makes me a codger.

  168. Shore Guy says:

    “Shall we setup the next GTG for reychavik”

    I used to know a woman in keflavik (I think that was the spelling). A real stunner.

  169. Clotpoll says:

    Does this make me a codger:

    “I am an antichrist
    I am an anarchist
    Dont know what I want but
    I know how to get it
    I wanna destroy the passer by cos i

    I wanna be anarchy !
    No dogs body

    Anarchy for the u.k its coming sometime and maybe
    I give a wrong time stop a trafic line
    Your future dream is a shopping scheme cos i

    I wanna be anarchy !
    In the city

    How many ways to get what you want
    I use the best I use the rest
    I use the enemy I use anarchy cos i

    I wanna be anarchy !
    The only way to be !”

  170. Clotpoll says:

    Maybe they should turn Iceland into a bordello.

  171. #170 – No I haven’t. I have noticed that they have a penchant for listing houses in late August for some reason.
    At this point the decline for SI is inevitable. They can pile as many fountains as they want on to the 20sq feet of front lawn they own but valuations are only going one way.
    I think it will probably take about a year before the fall-out from Lehman and the various mergers shows in unemployment. At that point SI is going to get screwed. Given how much debt I suspect the average person on SI to be carrying it may be brutal.
    On a lighter note, I will be moving off of the island at the end of this month. Yay me!

  172. kettle1 says:

    it seems like my landlord also had a “WAR” for 30K and a “UCC” back in 2001. They are currently proud owners of BofA and WAMU ARMs. multiple loans on each of their 3 rental properties and the family house.

  173. Hoodafa says:

    Clotpoll 148: You talking to me?

  174. kettle1 says:

    it seems like my landlord also had a “WAR” for 30K and a “UCC” back in 2001. They are currently proud owners of BofA and WAMU ARMs. multiple loans on each of their 3 rental properties and the family house.

    wonder how long before they go down?

  175. bklynhawk says:

    Clot, KL, Grim, et al Realtors-

    This might be too easy a target, but Keepin’ It Realtor pokes fun at realtors’ ads/signs. Good for a couple of laughs as the world swirls around and down the bowl…

    http://keepingitrealtor.blogspot.com/

  176. bklynhawk says:

    oops, hat tip to Gawker.com for this.

  177. Nicholas says:

    I thought of this joke that I saw way back and adapted it for todays markets, I hope you guys like it.

    Taking a look back over the last year, if you were to invest 1000$ into the stock market buying shares of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers or AIG you would have achieved the following results:

    Your thousand dollars today
    Fannie: 15.98$
    Freddie: 17.36$
    Lehman: 2.46$
    AIG: 38.88$

    If you would have taken that 1000$ and invested in cases of beer…say Pabst Blue Ribbon or Old Milwalkees Best… and DRANK all the beer and collected the empties and returned them for a deposit:

    Michigan (10c per empty)
    Beers-OMB (30pk 54c/can): 184.16$
    Beers-PBR (30pk 52c/can): 192.43$

    Others (5c per empty)
    Beers-OMB (30pk 54c/can): 92.08$
    Beers-PBR (30pk 52c/can): 96.22$

    As you can see taking the “high life” road resulted in better ROI’s then housing.

  178. Clotpoll says:

    hawk (179)-

    This is why all my agents are under threat of immediate termination if they start ad campaigns without running them by me first.

  179. DuckVader says:

    Apologies to everybody, for this off-topic story from NYT:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/garden/09small.html?ei=5070

    I totally want to avoid the “rent” vs. “buy” thing, or in the NJ is crap story. But is there really something so great about living in NY city? They are spending $4,000 a month on rent. OK, they get “charm.” I guess there’s something to be said for both sides. But 4K gets you a decent house short of Alpine.

  180. Barbara says:

    I just like how every ad names the agent like this. *Debra “Deb” Johnson* *Edward “Eddie” Haskill* *Mathew “Mat” Rosenbaum* Like we all aren’t really familiar with the short version of typical western names. Thanks guys, you rock.

  181. BC Bob says:

    Happy Anniversary, 1 year Bear.

  182. Hard Place says:

    Can’t believe it’s been a year since BS went down the drain.

  183. BC Bob says:

    HP [186],

    Meant 1 year bear market. BS, not to be confused with Bull Sheet, went down on March 16-17.

  184. lostinny says:

    175 Tosh
    I think it will take SI longer to admit feeling it because it seems to take longer then anywhere and anything to get here.
    I am jealous. I hope you move somewhere that is nothing like it is here. :)

  185. gary says:

    I may have nailed this one below verbatim. This ditty was said to my wife and I at an open house in North Caldwell a year ago. This is also the same rocket scientist who told us to take out a 2nd mortgage to buy another house but not to tell the bank what we’re really using it for:

    It’s contained to subprime only, sales have been strong and will continue – buyers on the sidelines are jumping in so if you’re going to make a bid, I’d do so soon as we expect multiple bids on this house.

  186. Essex says:

    182….oooo you seem so hard….

  187. skep-tic says:

    #48

    “BeBe sales were down %10. It’s madness I tell you, madness!”

    does skankiness go out of style in a depression? I would think the contrary

  188. make money says:

    I have the feeling that short covering and cashing in is whats creating support at these prices today.

    Freking Cox blamed shorts for this mess.

  189. Clotpoll says:

    make (192)-

    The shorts who are covering today will kick themselves tomorrow.

    This thing is going to black, fast.

  190. BC Bob says:

    “Freking Cox blamed shorts for this mess.”

    make,

    Not surprising. He is the master Buffoon. No need to say anything else pertaining to this fraud.

  191. make money says:

    Clot 193

    my point is that markets need balance hence both sides of the equation are necessary.

    I don’t have a problem in lowering one side of the equation until it reaches one ounce of Gold.

    feel me.

  192. make money says:

    I just booked at trip to down under so that I can visit my shiny stuff.

    I’m actually very excited.l It’s funny.

  193. Clotpoll says:

    No bid at any level. No support. No more excuses. No more ppt deus ex machina.

    Just complete distrust of counterparties, the gubmint, the system, the banks. The big lie of systemic fraud unveiled for all to see.

    Gubmint in the business of bad cc debt, upside-down car loans, check cashing bodegas, pawnshops. Now looking to hand criminal bankers blank checks. Don’t they know you should never walk around with blank checks?

    We are all in the zombie zone. This time, whole chapters of history books will be devoted to it. We are all Keynesians now? All Austrians? No, we are all dupes.

  194. Clotpoll says:

    make (195)-

    Word.

  195. Clotpoll says:

    Here’s a chart that shows what happens when people know the jig is up:

    http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ACORS

  196. Clotpoll says:

    How do you spell “stupor”?

    I spell it “MS”:

    http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ms

    And Crudlow is sounding the “all clear” at 9:30 this AM. Why is he not being fed to feral dogs?

  197. Clotpoll says:

    Slipped on a banana peel?:

    http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:FIG

    Margin call? Collateral call?

  198. BC Bob says:

    “No, we are all dupes.”

    Clot,

    Let the govt invest our $ into banks so the crooks can lend it back to us and charge interest. Yes, a world of dupes.

  199. Clotpoll says:

    Note the “up with people” attitude in the accompanying message boards:

    http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BX

    Also note the jaw-dropping volume. I guess the traders decided to skip the repent portion of today’s religious program.

    Of course, they can always stop by the river after 4:30 to toss in last year’s sins. The river is always open for business.

  200. Clotpoll says:

    John (205)-

    This is a better resemblance:

    http://tinyurl.com/4w86vk

    Unbelievable record, too.

  201. #188 – I think it will take SI longer to admit feeling it because it seems to take longer then anywhere and anything to get here.
    That does make sense, depreciation is stuck in traffic at the Outerbridge.
    I am jealous. I hope you move somewhere that is nothing like it is here. :)

    Just NJ, so like SI dialed down to 7.

  202. skep-tic says:

    well, we have a culture that has built up over 30 yrs that largely rewards risk taking and debt and punishes saving and prudent investing. People are not going to revert to a 1950 style mindset overnight and couldn’t even if they wanted to. Credit has replaced savings as most Americans cushion. Take away the credit cards and car loans and many people will go straight to welfare today. So in a way, proping up the banks and keeping credit flowing is a sort of welfare for the middle class.

  203. lostinny says:

    208 Tosh
    Must be stuck.
    Please don’t tell me you’re going right over the bridge.

  204. Clotpoll says:

    skep (209)-

    This is now your argument?

    Great, except the banks are failing anyway, and no relief will ever trickle to whatever passes for middle class these days.

  205. NJkiwi says:

    I have been reading the local county public records and found some interesting reading.
    The owners purchased the house that we are renting (House A) in 12/05 for $900,000 with a loan of $720,000. Owners refied 3 months later 03/06 with a $835,000 1yr ARM approx 1.25%, and had 4.5% added after one year etc to a max of 11.75%.

    In 9/06, (9 months after buying House A), they buy another house (House B) and move into it. About 2 miles down the road. Purchase price $1.59M, mortgage $1.277M, interest rate 1 year ARM 1.25% for 1 year with a max of 9.95%. Few months later take a HELOC for $157,000.

    They rented House A to others, then us, as they could not sell it. A year ago they were trying to get $1,000,000 for it.

    The owners had a lis pendens put on House A, our rental, in April this year and then a discharge 2 months later.

    Earlier this year a federal lien is put on House B for unpaid income taxes for $24,000. Three weeks ago House B has a lis pendens put on it .

    So they have two houses, with over $2,200,000 in mortgages (the purchases were made between 2-3 years ago so not much going into principal), one in preforclosure and with a federal lien. Their total skin in the game is about $230,000 for both houses.

    I am wondering when the lis pendens is going to go up on our rental house again, or when they are going to want to move in with us.

    This could be exhibit A at a ‘why we are in the mess we are in’ hearing.

  206. Clotpoll says:

    Getting ready to punch under 9,000.

  207. Olivia says:

    #183: Easy – because The City is a better living room than a space for sofas! Also, because suburban life will turn you into a culture-free zombie. Did you know kids born in the city emerge from the womb speaking fluent French?

    It’s so funny … People often defend paying high prices for Manhattan by saying they’ve got Broadway, but I think I catch shows more often than they do.

    As much as I still dream of living in Manhattan – after all, I’m educated, progressive-minded and culturally savvy – I’d be elbow-to-elbow with stupid people. At least bumper-to-bumper allows some distance.

    Honestly, NYT “trend” pieces make me stabby. I’m maid of honor for a wedding, and the bride, thankfully, hasn’t asked me to get breast implants.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/24/fashion/24skin.html?ref=fashion

  208. Secondary Market says:

    off topic. but where has njpatient been?

  209. #210 – Please don’t tell me you’re going right over the bridge.

    Well, it’s not right over the bridge. It’s right over the bridge and south for about 10 minutes.

    I’ve acquired a free house in the lovely rolling hills of up-and-coming Hazlet!

  210. Clotpoll says:

    (215)-

    A little tied up.

  211. BC Bob says:

    “Take away the credit cards and car loans and many people will go straight to welfare today.”

    skep,

    It does not matter what the dealers concoct next. Only those worthy of credit, will receive it. The banks will be hoarding cash, for years. It’s reparation mode. Why lend, they need it to become/remain solvent, afraid it won’t come back. In addition to this, fed is now paying interest on reserves. Just an ingenious move when you are trying to induce lending. Fractional reserve lending is kaput.

    Everybody form a line.

  212. gary says:

    Geezus… down 355 points.

  213. Clotpoll says:

    BC (218)-

    Form a line where? The bank, or the soup kitchen?

  214. lostinny says:

    216
    It’s a step up!

  215. lostinny says:

    217 Clot
    That was wrong. Well it might be right. But that’s not our business.

  216. skep-tic says:

    #214

    NYTimes is basically “Cribs” for people with liberal arts degrees. The lifestyle they portray is a caricature of overeducated, narcissistic layabout-ism.

  217. Secondary Market says:

    @233,
    okay so now i feel left out.

  218. kettle1 says:

    Secondary,

    Patient has taken a bit of a sabbatical for a while.

  219. BC Bob says:

    Clot [221],

    Skep’s welfare line. Apparently, Pavlov’s dog hasn’t received a wake up call.

  220. kettle1 says:

    Clot 221

    both actually. and you’ll be lucky to get anything in either line

  221. #222 – I got a sweetheart deal where I’m just covering the taxes on a 4 bedroom split-level. I’m using it as an opportunity to hoard a lot of cash with an eye to buying in Manhattan.

  222. HEHEHE says:

    The stock market keeps dropping. What’s going on? I though yesterday was capitulation, or was that the day before that, or the day before that:)

  223. HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Re Blackstone, any wonder why the Chinese haven’t gotten suckered into another deal with a financial company? ;)

  224. lostinny says:

    229 Tosh
    Sounds like a good deal. I have an eye on Manhattan too. But since I’d have to pay and arm and a leg, that’s just too much to give up.

  225. grim says:

    8 handle

    oof

  226. skep-tic says:

    I may be inarticulate here— banks are our infrastructure for allocating capital throughout society. They are what we have to do this and they are organized in a certain way. We can imagine different ways they might be organized or a different means altogether for allocating capital, but these other ways do not currently exist. Just as if we could imagine driving cars powered by hydrogen– doesn’t change the fact that we need gas today. So how do you deal with the fact that the platform that is currently in place is collapsing? Do you sit and preach about how it would be better if we had a different platform and focus your energy single-mindedly on the future, or do you try to shore-up the current platform as best as possible (e.g., drill for more oil) while simultaneously trying to establish the next step (e.g., research alternative fuels)? This is the issue I see at present.

  227. HEHEHE says:

    AIG employees, only one more hour until you can clock out for the day, and you executives can feel free to stop by my place for a free facial.

  228. Nicholas says:

    I took this excerpt from a document on what happens during a nuclear event, such as the housing bOOm. I always wondered why there was a blue glow over Prince Georges county in MD over the last year or two.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticality_accident

    Edited so as to increase understanding…

    “Instead, the blue glow of a criticality accident (AKA nuclear event) actually results from the spectral emission of the excited ionized “houses” (or excited “housing units”, mostly Single Family Homes and Townhomes) falling back to unexcited states, which happens to produce an abundance of blue light”

  229. Essex says:

    grim…put a 25 word limiter on the posts here….any more and they sound like rambling rants.

  230. r says:

    Re: NY Times article about families in small apartments.

    When writing a “trend” article for the Times, the following standards must be adhered too.

    1. Women will be referred to as Ms.
    2. Married couples last name must be hyphenated or,
    3. Husbands and wives can not have the same last name.
    4. Kids must have strange celebrity type names like Octavio or Appleseed.
    5. Someone must be wearing Emo glasses if pictures are used.

  231. HEHEHE says:

    Sh*t Dow broke 9000!!!

  232. HEHEHE says:

    Dealbreaker hearing rumors somebody’s liquidating $400B in positions.

  233. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [236]

    Actually, I always liked the muted glow of the Cerenkov Effect. Kinda soothing.

  234. HEHEHE says:

    Look’s like the Roubinator may be a few months off his Dow 6000 in 2009

  235. BC Bob says:

    “So how do you deal with the fact that the platform that is currently in place is collapsing?”

    Creative destruction, purge out the crap. Let Mr Market handle it. TAF, PDCF, TSLF, TARP, CFFF, BS, Fannie/Freddie, AIG etc… Stop the madness, nationalize everything, everybody receives a fat pension and clock out at 4:00. To the bistro.

  236. Nicholas says:

    blue light special

  237. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    8800 and dropping. Market now screaming downward, like a sub with a flooded torpedo room and no ballast control.

  238. BC Bob says:

    “Dealbreaker hearing rumors somebody’s liquidating $400B in positions’

    he,

    A Lehman contra party, cds?

  239. randy says:

    144 NJKiwi…

    Glad the board could reassure you that you won’t be kicked out in the event of your landlords forecloser. AGAIN.

    didn’t the board already go over this with you yesterday or the day before?? or am i over-tired and having deja vu??

  240. still_looking says:

    um…. did Klink get up and speak again?

    Market down almost 500

    sl

  241. -530 pts, fast too.

  242. quest says:

    dollarsavingsdirect went UP to 4% from 3.75% yesterday…what’s up with that???

  243. make money says:

    570

  244. Nicholas says:

    8684.64

  245. MS -%25, SOV -%22, KEY -%25, PRU -%21

    This is ugly.

  246. Nicholas says:

    Hasn’t been this low since 2003. If it drops below 7700 then we are looking at 1995 pricing.

  247. still_looking says:

    Depression? What depression?

    sl

  248. SG says:

    Today’s date 10 09 08

    Seems everything has to go down.

  249. Clotpoll says:

    Skep (234)-

    “I may be inarticulate here— banks are our infrastructure for allocating capital throughout society.”

    Here’s my candidate for the future tool of capital distribution:

    http://tinyurl.com/4ofrxv

  250. gary says:

    And why is the 10 yr. yield UP. Usually, when equities sell, everybody piles into bonds. It doesn’t appear to be the case.

  251. Clotpoll says:

    HE (231)-

    Wouldn’t be surprised if China was behind shorting BX into oblivion.

  252. still_looking says:

    -643

    triggers?

    sl

  253. BC Bob says:

    Close the stock market, take a bank holiday, it’s a crash, spread out over 4 days! Where’s George Bailey?

  254. Clotpoll says:

    sl (260)-

    Too late in the day.

  255. still_looking says:

    skf 181

  256. BC Bob says:

    Those damn shorts.

  257. kettle1 says:

    if there is a bank holiday before the elections then they must be desperate

    Inlaws were telling me not to worry about all of this banking mess at a family gtg last night. Their financial guy says hold the course with your portfolio and you will be just fine. Every market fluctuates. It just looks scary…. did i mention they are 2-5 years from retirement

    So lets all settle down, sell the gold and buy stocks. What is Bear and lehaman stock going for today? GM, AIG?

  258. make money says:

    Those damn shorts.

    I know right? The bastards covering at 3:50PM

  259. John says:

    Johnny Mack couldn’t get an injection at a Gay Pride Parade

  260. make money says:

    Every market fluctuates. It just looks scary…. did i mention they are 2-5 years from retirement

    They should be out of stocks and into annuities this close to retirement.

    I hope your kids take after Kettle side of the family.

  261. Clotpoll says:

    make (266)-

    Covering? Just re-loading for tomorrow.

  262. Rich52 says:

    S&P at 922, anyone tempted to buy yet?

  263. Clotpoll says:

    Rich (270)-

    I’d gladly borrow some from you. :)

  264. lostinny says:

    Closed under 9000.

  265. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [257] Clot,

    In my case, the tool of capital preservation.

    Said it before, I will say it again. The only metals to buy right now are brass, lead, and gun.

  266. kettle1 says:

    Dow breaks 8K by oct 31

  267. lostinny says:

    Happy Halloweenie!

  268. still_looking says:

    S&P at 913

  269. still_looking says:

    Time to clear the cash out of the bank accounts yet?

    sl

  270. Rich52 says:

    still_looking (278)

    I don’t have a mattress that big.

  271. d2b says:

    Good thing that we spent 700B.

    Shore- off topic $10 NFL beers. I’ve been completely turned off by the economics of Pro Sports these days. Overpriced tickets with crazy surcharges, parking lot gouging, and insane food pricing. While I can afford it, I don’t want to pay it anymore.

    I’ll continue to watch, but I think that I will shift my spending to college/minor league games. For me, it’s just not enjoyable to go knowing that they are bending you over.

  272. kettle1 says:

    THIS IS NOT A JOKE!!!!!

    AIG, Castigated for Resort Event, Plans Another One

    American International Group Inc., castigated by the Wite House, Congress and Brack Odama for hosting a $440,000 conference days after an $85 billion federal bailout, plans to hold another gathering for brokers next week. The event, at the Ritz-Carlton in California’s Half Moon Bay, aims to “motivate and educate” about 150 independent agents who sell AIG coverage to high-end clients, said spokesman Nicholas Ashooh.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVXfypExIZ9M&refer=home

  273. BC Bob says:

    sl [278],

    I have a mattress account.

  274. kettle1 says:

    Mentioned yet? Mission control, we have a problem.

    Iceland’s Krona Currency Trading Halted

    Trading in the Icelandic krona came to a halt after the government seized control of Kaupthing Bank hf, the nation’s biggest lender, as the financial crisis deepens. There haven’t been any so-called krona spot trades today, or transactions in which currency must be exchanged immediately, according to Stockholm-based Nordea Bank AB and TD Securities Ltd. in London.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aiz5QIq94nrw&refer=europe

  275. kettle1 says:

    Is there a hot lead and pitbull ETF (HLP) we can invest in?

  276. SS says:

    re: AIG – 281

    Have to spend money to make money.

  277. BC Bob says:

    “Shore- off topic $10 NFL beers. I’ve been completely turned off by the economics of Pro Sports these days.”

    d2b [280],

    My bil is a season ticker holder for the Giants, 4 tickets. His father had them from the 50’s, Yankee Stadium. If he desires to keep these 4 tickets, it will cost him a 40K license fee, psl’s, 10K a ticket. After you pay this, you buy your season tickets, along with the pre-season tilts. One hell of a deal?

  278. Sean says:

    Got to practice for my new push cart business.

    Get your Soylent Green here! I said Get your Soylent Green here!

  279. mikeymike says:

    sl [278]

    Over the past couple of months, I’ve been withdrawing steadily from my accounts. I now have about half of my savings in cash. I am now looking into buying physical metal with it. Any suggestions from those with experience?

    Mike

  280. BC Bob says:

    “Have to spend money to make money.’

    [285],

    On the flip side, you can just create another blackbox.

  281. Clotpoll says:

    mikey (288)-

    Pawnshops.

  282. chicagofinance says:

    Bost: what does capitulation look like?

  283. BC Bob says:

    Speaking of lines, not point spreads, who is stepping forward to bailout the bailout?

    Sell? Sell to whom?

  284. BC Bob says:

    Chi [291],

    It looks close to me, at least for the short term?

    Then again this is unprecendented. Have you ever seen this?

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=VIX

  285. HEHEHE says:

    BC,

    I think you are right re the Lehman CDS. The auction is tomorrow. Likely co’s doing CYA and raising cash today in anticipation of the auction.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/99230-epic-lehman-cds-auction-tomorrow-timeline

  286. 3b says:

    Tied up all afternoon, what happened??

  287. Confused In NJ says:

    291.mikeymike Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
    sl [278]

    Over the past couple of months, I’ve been withdrawing steadily from my accounts. I now have about half of my savings in cash. I am now looking into buying physical metal with it. Any suggestions from those with experience?

    Mike

    Interesting that my Fidelity Retirement Broker told me Tuesday he could get me Physical Gold, which they hold in their vault. There was a storage fee however. Was talking to him about CD’s, 10 yr Treasuries & TIPS when he mentioned some Clients Hold Gold.

  288. SS says:

    # 292

    Understood – but you can’t halt the “profitable” side of your business. It’s just how the insurance business works for high dollar accounts.

    This is first time since 9/11 that insurance companies are making money on premiums. Have you noticed your insurance premiums dropping? Auto for example? Notwithstanding tickets or accidents, etc…

  289. Confused In NJ says:

    If Ben would stop killing Savings Account Interest Rates, and Government would eliminate Tax on Interest, life would be good again, “I Like Ike”.

  290. randy says:

    they need to shut down the CDS market and move it to the CME where it can be regulated. just nullify the whole damn thing.

    regarding NFL PSL’s and the rest of that bullsheet. well, nothing will make me happier than to see the owners of these PUBLICLY FUNDED stadiums squirm in their seats… and watch the value of their franchise sink accordingly.

    does anybody really think those astronomical prices will continue … with a deflationary spiral crushing everything in sight?

  291. BC Bob says:

    he[297],

    It’s a total nightmare. Remember my comparison regarding the electrical box containing thousands of wires crossed, spliced and taped? Well the lights went out last week and the master electrician’s are studying the blueprint, picture the monkeys on careerbuilder. Tomorrow, Lehman show, could be the crescendo.

  292. randy says:

    also, i love the media stories about how “going to professional sporting events is the last thing people give up in a recession”…

    when the choice is between feeding your family or going to a Dodgers game… I don’t think there’s any way that full ballparks will continue.

  293. BC Bob says:

    Bull markets, climb the stairs to the top floor. Bear markets, tend to take the elevator down.

  294. Essex says:

    Maria Bartiroma is such a wh*re….god love her.

  295. mikeymike says:

    Confused [299],

    I don’t think I’d want to buy gold from a bank or hold it in a vault. I don’t want the gubmint to know that I have any and where I have it! Juuuust in case!

    Mike

  296. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
    Chi [291], It looks close to me, at least for the short term? Then again this is unprecendented. Have you ever seen this?

    Bost: No, but I am only 40. The owner of my firm is 67 has seen a heckuva lot of crap, and he is giving this ride its just due.

    I just wrote several paragraphs and deleted them. I have to be really careful here…sorry.

    I will say this….I can’t see how anyone wants to be short here…..or own shiny stuff either…..

  297. C Dawg says:

    Professional sports will do fine. Corporations will buy enough tickets to keep things going. Note how the new stadiums (Yankee and Giants) are beefing up big time on corporate boxes. The average face-painted, beer guzzling, tailback-attending fan is so last century.

  298. D Minus says:

    9/3/1929 DOW: 381.17 peak before The Depression
    9/3/1930 DOW: 237.45 (37.7% drop in one year)

    10/9/2007 DOW: 14164.53 New Peak
    10/9/2008 DOW: 8823.79? (37.7% drop in one year)

    http://generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.i.djia

  299. make money says:

    I will say this….I can’t see how anyone wants to be short here…..or own shiny stuff either…..

    I own a boat load of shiny stuff. My whole make money titanic is loaded with the shy stuff.

    to hell with disclaimers

  300. Sean says:

    re: #308 chicagofinance – Ask your 67 year old boss this, when was the last time that they saw the DJIA or SPX fell 40% in 12 months?

    I only know one person old enough to answer from real life experience and she is 96 years old.

    Go shiny stuff…

  301. John says:

    She sure is but I would love to go long into a three day weekend with her!!!!

    Maria Bartiroma is such a wh*re….god love her.

  302. ADA says:

    I’m trying to look on the bright side. If the market goes to zero that’ll be one heck of a buying opportunity.

  303. Confused In NJ says:

    David Vickers on Fox says, if Dow breaks 7200 support level, his projection is Dow 3000 – 4000 Range.

  304. John says:

    Sean, I was at EF Hutton on October 1987 and saw a 23% drop in one day. Even worst EF Hutton stock was our 401K match and we could invest in it. Black Monday happened during an employee black out period. My 50 year old boss had 100k in his 401K at 9:30am all in EF Hutton Stock, he was drinking coffee loaded with whiskey and smoked four packs that day while cursing and screaming. His 401K closed down 75% at 4pm. This aint nothing yet. I haven’t even spotted a single jumper yet.

  305. BC Bob says:

    Chi[308],

    The owner of your firm has been around much longer than me. Kudos to him. There are many that are giving the ride its just due. That said, I like my position.

    If you pulled out a chart Dow/Gold and tracked the spread over the last 28 years, you would ask yourself why doesn’t everyone own the metal? How can you justify criticizing an investment, or anti-investment, decision that has closed higher, each of the last 6 years, and is up 24% yoy. The spread has totally collapsed, in gold’s favor. You may not like it. That’s OK. The devil is in the details. Please, look at a chart. In 2000 the spread was close to 40-1, present day about 9.5-1. In other words it cost me 40 oz of gold to buy 1 Dow in 2000, today it costs 9.5 oz of gold to buy 1 Dow. Who’s the winner?

    Stocks? I may agree with you, at least in the short term.

  306. Al says:

    “We’re preparing for the worst-case scenario”

    Well I guess it is time for me to start preparing as well – back from work to fing markets “a bit” down…

    Semi-serious: Anyone can recommend decent hand-gun?? reliable, more or less accurate, and fairly cheap ammo? (If Dow will go to 3000-400 range – well, we will see riots in NJ again.)

  307. Al says:

    This time it will be teachers union and Police/goverment employee who just lost all of their pensions…

  308. Essex says:

    Al, you can only hope…..

  309. C Dawg says:

    Are pension defaults a distinct possibility now with so many boomers on the cusp of retirement?

  310. Al says:

    And there I was, predicting 11600 three month ago (or was it two month ago???).

    I got some cash out today, and thinking of withdrawing my down payment all together from CD’s as our credit union finally placed advertisement for ARMS

    They said at the last meeting in early august that they have too much cash and CD’s and bonds, which made their portfolio to conservative and – they are rolling out a new program and increasing their exposure to home loans to provide higher returns to credit union users…

    I juts can not believe the timing – this nice posters with ARMs and other home loans looked like a parody today – they just hung them out this morning.

    In general do you believe it is possible to go Russian Model – banking holiday for a year or two…

    (if you do not know in 1980th soviet goverment froze all savings and allowed people to withdraw savings 2 years later – when what before was equial to a car now would buy you a pair of jeans)…

  311. Al says:

    Bold off

  312. Shore Guy says:

    DOW
    8579.19 -678.91 -7.33%

    Do I hear 79XX anyone?

    Ahh, George Herbert Hoover Bush. Time for another call to the White House suggesting he shoud resign.

  313. skep-tic says:

    stopping at the grocery store on the way home to buy more nonperishables.

  314. jcer says:

    Randy, I agree. Years ago people did not give up going to sporting events but years ago tickets were not $400 per seat. Ticket prices are out of control, player salaries are crazy, etc. With the exception of hockey which is still somewhat reasonable in price. NJ devils are 2k per seat($50 per ticket) in the lower level, which for in the new arena I don’t think is that bad.

  315. Al says:

    Hey people – are we seriosly considering dooms day scenario – such as collapse of the economy???

    Just wondering how serious are you?

  316. Al says:

    Costco 50 lb bag of rice, dried milk, beans, salt, sugar, Tango powder…. What else was in the survival list besides Ammo??

  317. the crazy man in the corner says:

    8220 is my support line, and then after that its 6270 ..

    Although, I’m hoping my Class 3 FFL comes through soon so I can buy ammo wholesale!

  318. skep-tic says:

    I just think it makes sense to be prepared for a few weeks of turmoil. Having enough cash, food, gas on hand to get you through 2-3 weeks cannot hurt.

  319. S&P puts GM on credit watch negative.

  320. jcer says:

    Al the government has pretty much made it obvious they will not allow total collapse and will intervene to keep things healthy. I do not for see food shortages because the gov’t will provide loans if need be and will ensure the market is healthy for farm goods as they do not want a repeat of 1930. I think spending is down the tubes, asset values will deflate, unemployment will be up, and in general the economy will hurt, companies will go out of business, credit will be tight. What I do not for see is armageddon, the dollar collapsing etc. Think mild great depression.

  321. sas says:

    9/3/1929 DOW: 381.17 peak before The depression
    9/3/1930 DOW: 237.45 (37.7% drop in one year)

    10/9/2007 DOW: 14164.53 New Peak
    10/9/2008 DOW: 8823.79? (37.7% drop in one year)

    ..yikes!

  322. NJGator says:

    324 Shore – In Nov 2000, I said Shrub would be the worst president ever. Stu and most of my friends told me I was overreacting.

    FF 8 Years…Hate to say I told you so…

    How much more do we drop tomorrow before the 3 day weekend?

  323. Barbara says:

    329.
    Bosco

  324. Barbara says:

    I’m having a baby in March. I’m imagining delivering in a dimly lit hallway amongst the local crackheads and schitzos.
    Its probably just the hormones talking, yep.

  325. skep-tic says:

    #332

    “Al the government has pretty much made it obvious they will not allow total collapse and will intervene to keep things healthy.”

    jcer– I agree and I think we would go to a marshall law situation within a week or two of banks being shut down (if it came to that). What I am worried about mostly is the interval between collapse (if it comes) and heavy hand of gov’t asserting itself.

  326. Barbara says:

    Oh, add to the NJRR movie list, Brazil.

  327. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob Says:
    October 9th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
    Chi[308], How can you justify criticizing an investment, or anti-investment, decision that has closed higher, each of the last 6 years, and is up 24% yoy. The spread has totally collapsed, in gold’s favor. You may not like it. That’s OK. The devil is in the details. Please, look at a chart. In 2000 the spread was close to 40-1, present day about 9.5-1. In other words it cost me 40 oz of gold to buy 1 Dow in 2000, today it costs 9.5 oz of gold to buy 1 Dow. Who’s the winner?

    Bost: I am not going to argue with your facts. They draw an obvious conclusion with which I agree. I am saying that I would not suggest at 6PM on 10/9/08 to go searching for shiny stuff.

  328. sas says:

    some you blokes need to relax a little.

    Not every dollar is attached to Wall St and the DOW.

    SAS

  329. sas says:

    There is a big push these days that is gaining momentum, and that is to keep the money with the community or state, rather than funnel it to wall st.

    this is the wave of the future, and I don’t think we will ever see those highs again.

    accept it, plan on how to keep your money and with in your community.

    suggestion:
    have a pot luck once a week with a friend or neighbor.

    a very good way to save a little money and get to know your neighbor and spend time with friends.

    SAS

  330. sas says:

    “OPEC to hold emergency meeting Nov. 18 to discuss falling oil prices, economic crisis”

    that is going to be one interesting day.

    SAS

  331. Sean says:

    re: 316 – John jumpers makes for a good story either way, but jumpers are an urban myth.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2200633/

    I was in college at the time and I do remember October of 1987 well, my shares of Ben and Jerry’s Ice Cream took a hit, but I held on. This time I am not so confident.

  332. max says:

    is the toll increase still going on.

    should not be a problem for NJ,,, after all
    we have to pay the turnpike, and GSP, salaries and pensions,

    Corzine,, has our best in mind… what a guy

  333. HEHEHE says:

    BC,

    Good analogy. $400B and tomorrow they find out how much is on each plate. Yikes.

  334. Sean says:

    re: OPEC

    At the last meeting around $100 a barrel the Saudis walked away, they did not want to cut since they promised GWB and Cheney to keep supply up perhaps for the election.

    This time we are down another 15% a barrel and we will see a vote to cut production regardless of what King Saud thinks.

  335. sas says:

    derivatives pyrimind goes bye..bye…

    looks like the domino theory actually did come true, just 40 years later, and on Wall St, and not southeast asia.

    SAS

  336. sas says:

    every and any future proposed bailout will pass.

    the govt doesn’t want anything to go into bankrupcy court, and reveal the true (or should I say false) value of credit default derivatives in their portfolio, and who is behind this…by design.

    Like I said, keep your eyes on Citi.

    say goodbye to Citi…say goodbye my baby!
    (sung like that Billy Joel song):)

    SAS

  337. sas says:

    “Plunge Protection Team”
    http://tinyurl.com/yu9k9e

  338. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    You wee right, and I did not vote for him either time either.

  339. sas says:

    time for a little refresher blokes:
    “Resolution Trust Corporation”
    http://tinyurl.com/6zlskk

  340. BC Bob says:

    “I am saying that I would not suggest at 6PM on 10/9/08 to go searching for shiny stuff.”

    Chi,

    Now the line is drawn in the sand, market deflation versus world cb reinflating. IMO, the spread goes to approx 2-1. Some, much smarter than me say 1-1, possibly flip. I am locked in, protected with puts. I won’t allow years of gains to evaporate. That said, I hope the puts expire worthless.

    If I didn’t have a position and didn’t understand the dynamics of the trade, I would agree with you. To jump in because the world is coming to an end is ludicrous. There is a lot of risk at this level. Then again, every investment is risky in this environment.

  341. sas says:

    “States That Can’t Pay for Themselves”
    http://tinyurl.com/3hlt3s

  342. sas says:

    bring back the summer of 63 damn it!!

    SAS

  343. sas says:

    commercial paper issued by hedge funds and investment banks that are threatened with default…not some dumb sap who can’t pay is subslime loan…I mean subprime loan.

    let me rephrase my new song:
    eehh ahh emm

    “say goodbye to Summit & Ridgewood…say goodbye my baby”

    ye
    SAS

  344. NJkiwi says:

    250 Randy,
    yeah I heard that I couldn’t be booted out but then I saw what was going on in IL so I thought I would double check- goodness knows the rules around here are changing by the minute. But then after clot said to check public records I found a whoooole lot bigger mess for the owners of this house (see 215)

  345. Clotpoll says:

    BC (303)-

    The Lehman auction results could throw off quite the mushroom cloud.

  346. Clotpoll says:

    chi (308)-

    Fortunately, for those of us short stocks, long gold…we have a nice working margin of error now.

  347. the crazy man in the corner says:

    clot (359) –

    very much so – although, i wonder if i should start taking delivery of my gold contracts lol

  348. Clotpoll says:

    kiwi (357)-

    I spend more time looking at clerk filings than looking at listings.

    That’s how I know when Klink says everything depends on housing stabilizing and correcting, things are going from gray to black.

    Your landlord doesn’t even hold a candle to Casey Serin. And, there are tens of thousands of Casey Serins out there.

    It is a bottomless alligator pit.

  349. Clotpoll says:

    crazy (360)-

    Just wait until the paper gold market collapses and can’t deliver.

    Whoops! Did I just say that?

    Silly me.

  350. Clotpoll says:

    In a similar vein, how’s the gubmint’s gold leasing program going?

    Anybody inventory Ft. Knox lately?

  351. Clotpoll says:

    Everybody knows the gubmint wouldn’t lease gold.

    Everybody.

  352. Clotpoll says:

    That wasn’t Ameros we sent to China…

  353. Barbara says:

    stupid question
    Why is gold valuable?

  354. Clotpoll says:

    …in the classic, existential definition of “is”.

  355. victorian says:

    at what point in the DOW do we have a GTG?

  356. sas says:

    “Why is gold valuable?”

    stocks & bonds..liquid, but not an asset.
    (i.e DOW Jones meltdown, puff up in smoke)

    real estate.. an asset, but not liquid (ask any current RE seller, they can’t sell)

    Gold & Silver is both liquid and an asset.
    universally accepted as real money.

    SAS

  357. sas says:

    “Why is gold valuable?”

    thats from a monetary point of view.
    Gold and Silver have very unique properties that make them very good for industrail uses.

    SAS

  358. Barbara says:

    Sas,
    but what is its VALUE? We could trade rare butterflies too. Those are real and could be liquid if people got all gah gah for them. Gold is decorative, that’s it.
    I realize it has been historically sound, but I find it odd that we put such importance on something that is nothing more than decorative.

  359. Barbara says:

    371 Sas,
    I would think that that would make titanium a better choice

  360. Pat says:

    I think I missed the definition of Tango powder. Wasat? Is it critical?

    We went with basmati instead of long grain, as well.

  361. sas says:

    “we put such importance on something that is nothing more than decorative”

    -this where you have to do your own research.because your way off target.

    “but what is its VALUE?”
    -follows supply & demand laws. but the catch is..you can’t print gold, you have to dig it up and physically obtain it.

    “I would think that that would make titanium a better choice”

    titanium is great, true.
    but, go back to above comments :)

    SAS

  362. 3b says:

    #316 John: We as a country and a people were in much better shape in 1987, we are much weaker now.

  363. kettle1 says:

    barbara,

    gold is the choice of history because it is of limited supply, has some unique properties, is found attractive by all cultures and because it is relativly easy to work. easier then titanium. metals such as titanium and steel were widely worked with until the last 2-300 years.

    Its value comes from the combination of all of the properties. change anyone and you change the desirability of gold.

    gold is also ultimately a limited resource and cannot be created at will. this somewhat guarantees that it will hold value long term.

    another factor is “wealth density”. a relatively small amount of gold has a high value. its easier to carry 1 gold coin then the equivalent 1000lbs of wheat it would buy.

    consider that at the end of WWII when the germans were clearly going to lose, suppliers would only sell germany materials in exchange for gold bullion

  364. still_looking says:

    The ACORNS are falling on OH!

    sl

  365. sas says:

    you can use butterflys, but thats not universally accpet as means of exchange.

    I got out of a mexican jail once by giving the police my gold wedding ring. can you imagine what would of happened if I tried to get out by offering them butterflys?

    SAS

  366. Outofstater says:

    Barbara – This is how it was explained to me years ago: Gold is the one storehouse of value that has remained constant for centuries. During the Revolutionary War, one ounce of gold bought a good quality man’s suit. An ounce of gold has bought a good quality suit at nearly every point during our history. Gold is the one commodity that is universally recognized as having both instrinsic value and value as a medium of exchange and its value is largely impervious to inflation.

  367. sas says:

    man… mexican prison… that was a real peach of week.

    SAS

  368. Clotpoll says:

    Gold is also edible.

  369. sas says:

    and my wallet was stolen that night by some chica in the nightclub I wasn’t flirting with..

    man, I can’t believe I’ve lived this long.

    SAS

  370. Cindy says:

    I’m home for dinner then back to a PTA meeting at 6:00 –

    WTF happened!

    $400B – What – Who – CDS? – I have the news on but it is getting me nowhere…
    Someone – please fill me in?

    Obviously, they didn’t get the Chicago Mercantile “clearing house” idea set up in time!

  371. Clotpoll says:

    Just another crack in the collapse of Western civilization.

  372. Clotpoll says:

    We need to reserve an entire thread one day, and just let Cindy and sas post.

    Schoolmarm vs. mercenary.

  373. Pat says:

    sl, you a cat person? My completely indoor, healthy/shots, normally gentle cat bit me at 6:30 pm in the skin between thumb/forefinger. (My fault…I tried to wash her and her long hair in the tub after a poop crisis and I put her directly under the running water in a rush).

    It’s sore and a bit swollen. Any chance I need biaxin? Don’t have a doc yet; we moved and I’m procrastinating. Anyway, sorry for the busman’s holiday question, but we live in the middle of nowhere and the ferry stops running at 11. Do not respond if you feel it’s inappropriate.

  374. Pat says:

    Clot, somehow, I think it would be a draw.

    They’re both too polite.

  375. Cindy says:

    The fear – the lack of trust – the poorly run government – monetary issues, etc. feels like the 70’s – minus the gas lines. Sas might speak to that. I think we are the same “vintage.”

  376. Cindy says:

    I really do have to go to a PTA meeting in 32 minutes. Pleeease tell me what happened…..pretty please….

  377. Cindy says:

    Okay fine, I’ll just keep googeling my heart out until something pops up…

  378. BC Bob says:

    “Just another crack in the collapse of Western civilization.”

    Clot,

    Let’s backtrack. The carry trade will be the demise of western civilization. Approx 1.5 years ago? The concern is not Side A of the trade, the unkown variable is Side B. Well, Side B has entered the bldg. Side B is beginning to sing. The whole world has been one giant carry. It’s a bitch when markets reverse. Pull up that FX site and start firing.

    Speaking of carry, the yen is flying tonight, versus all crosses. Mrs Wantabe, if still breathing, is now seeking protection under TARP.

  379. Outofstater says:

    Cindy – As the day wore on today, it became increasingly clear that none of the actions of the world’s governments were doing anything to stop the train wreck. I think the final straws were 1. The commercial paper market didn’t suddenly melt when the Feds stepped in and 2. Iceland said it may go bankrupt. Iceland, for crying out loud?? The last folks hoping for a short term rally bailed and it went downhill fast in the last hour and closed at the lows. The Nikkei is down 11% in the first 38 minutes of trading. It ain’t looking good for tomorrow. I’ll believe we’ve hit a bottom when I hear the business reporters’ voices become a little higher and a little more shrill. That’s the sound of fear. That’s just my take of today’s events. Now go to the PTA meeting and stop off for a mojito on the way home – and bring one for me too – I could use it!

  380. Victorian says:

    Do they have a circuit breaker on the Nikkei??!!??
    Damn, when does CostCo close?

  381. John says:

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 4.5 percent to 8,742.48, set for the lowest since June 2003. Australian shares headed for their worst week since the 1987 stock market crash. South Korea’s Kospi index fell to its lowest since June 23, 2006, while a plunge in futures triggered a halt in program trading.

  382. yome says:

    Letting Lehman fail seen as last straw

    Reuters
    First Posted 07:37:00 10/10/2008

    WASHINGTON — As finance chiefs gather in Washington DC this weekend to work out what went wrong with the world economy, the refusal of the US Treasury to rescue investment bank Lehman Brothers is the event many blame as the straw that broke its back.

    “For the equilibrium of the world financial system, this was a genuine error,” French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday, one day before departing to attend the Group of Seven meeting in Washington.

    “When we let one go, the risk is that others at that moment don’t know who their counterparty is anymore and find themselves exposed. Once we let one domino fall, the rest risk collapsing,” Legarde said.

    US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson defended his decision and said there was no other choice.

    “I think that, looking back, we’ve taken the right moves,” he told a news conference on Wednesday. “There was no buyer for Lehman Brothers. There was no buyer, there was no whole to fill. And as I think we’ve said, repeatedly, we did not have the wind-down authorities that we needed for…non-banking financial institutions. So I’ll leave it at that.”

    Lehman filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15. By September 16, Libor rates that measure how much banks charge to lend to each other had more than doubled to 6.44 percent.

    Later that day a big money market mutual fund called the Reserve Primary Fund was forced to inform shareholders it had “broken the buck,” or seen its net asset value fall below $1 a share, after it wrote off $785 million invested in Lehman Brothers debt and commercial paper.

    This accelerated a stampede of clients demanding their money back from money market funds, forcing them in turn to sell assets like commercial paper, and by Friday the US Treasury had to start guaranteeing the $3.4 trillion in such funds.

    “The Lehman bankruptcy pushed AIG over the cliff,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FT Financial in New York, referring to the $85 billion lifeline thrown to the world’s largest insurer, America International Group by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 16.

    “It dramatically reduced the capitalization of European banks who had exposure at Lehman. It broke the money market funds, which caused the fight of retail capital out of the market,” said Low.

    An auction of credit default swaps backed by Lehman on Friday this week may further clarify losses.

    According to analysts at IF, a service of Thomson Reuters, this may involve contracts nominally worth as much as $400 billion and could be prompting banks to hoard cash, and further drive up Libor rates.

    International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard said that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had rolled the dice with Lehman.

    “It was a bet. It was lost. What happened as a result is all kinds of financial institutions realized that their claims were not as secure as they thought,” he told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

    “Whether without it [the fall of Lehman] we would have avoided where we are today, I do not know. Some other event might have triggered the same thing a week later.”

  383. Clotpoll says:

    pat (388)-

    Cat scratch fever.

  384. Clotpoll says:

    stater (394)-

    The bottom is in when Crudlow is snorting Tony Montana-size lines off his desk.

  385. still_looking says:

    Mrs. sl is off duty now.
    You didn’t know cats don’t like water?
    The Mrs. will be back on soon for an answer.

  386. stu says:

    4 words…

    I am now rich!

    Half my paper gains will be converted to real gains tomorrow. will start going long with my cash acting as a hedge against continued turmoil. I think 8 k is bottom and will play both black and red until the market finds solid ground.

    I am not greedy, just wise and patient.

    asian stocks are plummeting and our exchanges should drop 500 or so tomorrow. noone will hold over the weekend. world governments will make major collaborative move this weekend to at least temporarily halt market drops. hence my sell-off of half tomorrow and move partially long.

    thank you everyone for the help and I can’t wait to get home so I can contribute more reularly with a regular keyboard.

    time for dinner on my best (or most rewarding) vacation ever.

  387. Outofstater says:

    #398 Clot – You mean there is another reason for his behavior other than blow? Who knew?

  388. BC Bob says:

    Barbara,

    Regarding gold. Disclaimer, I’m buried in it. I may be biased.

    Paper money is debt, how does one pay off debt with debt? Paper money is a whore, no intrinsic value. We have devalued the dollar since the creation of the fed, dollar has lost 96% of its value since the creation of the fed. Debasemant destroys purchasing power. The architect’s despise gold since it uncovers unpleasant truths, it’s a barometer of confidence in the world’s financial system. Every paper currency in the history of mankind has failed. The dollar will be no exception.

    Gold has been a medium of exchange for over 2,000 years. It is nobody’s debt and is not subject to counter party risk. It does not lie, commit fraud and has never defaulted. It can’t be printed nor created out of thin air. It is the sheriff, the quintessential anti-investment.

  389. Pat says:

    Ack, sorry Mr. sl. Forget it.

  390. Clotpoll says:

    stu (401)-

    I am rich now, too.

    Unfortunately, I am also now scared to death. This thing is off the tracks @ 160 mph.

  391. Pat says:

    Clot, there’s nothing to do now but enjoy the wild ride down and choose battles wisely.

    All of our preparations will be tested.

  392. BC Bob says:

    [396],

    Hammerin played his hand and lost. Once he let Lehman go we broke the buck, turmoil ensued. Oh fcuk, Hank broke the buck. Hank was so focused on LEH’s CDS exposure he let this one slip by. Can’t blame him though, he’s trying to plug hundreds of holes in the dike.

  393. Outofstater says:

    #405 Pat – Like Preparation H?

  394. Pat says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTo2ZMsZ4nhY&refer=home

    Oh, man. I might sell the rest before ten. Or is his vomit already priced in?

  395. Clotpoll says:

    Pat (406)-

    Still all-in; short stocks, long gold. The weird thing about this sell-off is that the curbs haven’t been triggered once.

    I won’t start to cover until the curbs get triggered.

  396. Clotpoll says:

    BC (407)-

    Plus, Klink had a stiffy for seeing LEH croak.

  397. Pat says:

    With all that rice we’re stocking up, Prep H might not be a bad addition.

  398. Clotpoll says:

    Pat (409)-

    Bergabe opened his pie hole and started a massive selloff. Klink pretty much spit the bit yesterday, too.

    However, Shrub should win this contest…with margin to spare.

  399. BC Bob says:

    “Plus, Klink had a stiffy for seeing LEH croak.”

    Clot,

    Yes. However, Jamie Dimon had the real woody.

  400. Clotpoll says:

    FYI to all:

    NJ Patient lives. Received cryptic message from him, and it wasn’t asking for lawyers, guns and money. All is ok; he’s an unchained soul. He’s deep undercover, in the land of upside-down.

  401. still_looking says:

    Hi… Pat, I’m here… my husband hijacks my computer and can’t seem to think up his own handle.

    A cat bite is bad. You need a tetanus booster if you are not up to date.

    If you are not Penicillin allergic you should start Augmentin to cover those organisms associated with cats.

    You need to wash the site well and keep it elevated.

    If it is an extremely old or young cat you need to worry about loose tooth or broken tooth foreign bodies. (Less so in the area that you were bitten.)

    Email grim for my phone# if you want answers. You can call me whenever.

    Sorry if this seems curt… I am in such a bad mood right now…

    sl

    ps: note to husband: Don’t answer for me, please. Thank you.

  402. Clotpoll says:

    Nikkei recovering; only down 8.5%.

  403. kettle1 says:

    i hope they hold it together this weekend. I am swinging in the breeze a bit until early next week :(

  404. still_looking says:

    that was for Pat 388.

    I can’t post my email as it has my name in it.

    You can email or call Clot or Grim for my number or email.

    I don’t mind medical questions. I’m an ER doc, for chrissakes.

    Besides, I have a sense of obligation given all the information I’ve received from this site and the wonderful people here.

    You folks have rescued my chestnuts from the fire more than once.

    sl

  405. Pat says:

    thx sl, but he’s right, nobody should be asking you ??? like that, and I kinda sort knew I’d need to go. Just my luck moving where there’s not a doc around for miles. It’s getting hot now, and swollen like a plum and I can’t bend the fingers. I was hoping I could just soak it in a bucket of witch hazel..but it’s not working.

    I’m calling my old doc in PA to see if she’ll call in an RX for me down here. There’s a CVS that’s only 17 miles away.

  406. kettle1 says:

    pAT

    WHERE DO YOU LIVE?

  407. Victorian says:

    Does anyone else think that the election might be canceled?

  408. still_looking says:

    Pat, are you in pennsylvania?

    I have no problem answering medical questions that I can answer safely… I am not a fan of long distance diagnosis as it’s too incomplete.

    You should be on an antibiotic, though and get an updated tetanus booster [if last one was more than 5 yrs ago.]

    You might need an xray for the reasons I mentioned above.

    I repeat: I don’t mind helping out here — everyone else has been equally generous with their knowledge and area of expertise

    And my husband knows better than to answer for me….I would hope.

    sl

  409. Pat says:

    MD, not far from Point of Rocks, about a half an hour from Frederick, in a little town where the doc just moved to Bucks County, PA, for god’s sake…where I moved from.

  410. kettle1 says:

    Vic,
    A lot of the more “fringe” blogs are starting to call martial law being put in place before the election.

    While i could see that happening, i do not see the elections being canceled. Paulson is currently dictator of the US. I’m only half kidding. the TARP bill gave him the power to act without any public review, congressional or judicial and he who controls the money controls the nation.

    the election will go on, but i have money in a pool that we will see some sort of martial law/”police action” in the next 6 months. Probably in just a hand full of locations and not on a national scale.

    If nothing else look into what additional powers were given to the executive and taken from the people as part of Patriot Act 2 if you really want to have bad dreams.

  411. Victorian says:

    If anybody has not read Roubini’s latest, please do not read it if you want to sleep tonight.

    “When in markets that are clearly way oversold even the most radical policy actions don’t provide rallies or relief to market participants you know that you are one step away from a market crack and a systemic financial sector and corporate sector collapse. A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset collapses, margin calls, cascading falls in asset prices well below falling fundamentals and panic is now underway.”

  412. sas says:

    “I am rich now”

    when i was in the marines, the was a large outfit, from the top down, brining in drugs from vietnam, cambotia, Laos, Thailand.

    I said how silly is that…when you can do more with gold & silver, and that is just what what we did…right under their noses, the cambotias caught on to us…but not for long.

    Then the bullmarket came in the 70s, and we bought the DOW. Most of my men then got hookers, heroin, started a pornographic buisness, and me… I was a dumb sap and went off to Tuck.

    never said I was a saint.

    SAS

  413. Victorian says:

    Kettle –

    Here is a video about that fact. Congress was threatened with Martial law.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaG9d_4zij8

  414. sas says:

    “I am rich now”

    when i was in the marines, there was a large outfit, from the top down, brining in drugs from vietnam, cambotia, Laos, Thailand.

    I said how silly is that…when you can do more with gold & silver, and that is just what what we did…right under their noses, the cambotias caught on to us…but not for long.

    Then the bullmarket came in the 70s, and we bought the DOW. Most of my men then got hookers, heroin, started an adult film buisness,

    as for me… I was a dumb sap and went off to Tuck and bought my first home.

    never said I was a saint.

    SAS

  415. Everything's Hobroken says:

    K

    ‘metals such as titanium and steel were widely worked with until the last 2-300 years’

    You probably mean platinum. Titanium is rather hard to work.

  416. sas says:

    “never said I was a saint”

    well, I did one thing right.

    in 75, I went back to central DaNang and helped evacuate an orphan house, and fostered 1 child…the little rascal and I have been peas in a pod since.

    SAS

  417. NJGator says:

    Nom – Can Stu and I get into the compound? Amongst other things , we can offer up a free outdoor hot tub. Although Stu doesn’t think that may be the best use of the water supply under the circumstances.

  418. sas says:

    funny..now that little rascal has his own family, and they call me “gran-pops”.

    :)
    SAS

  419. kettle1 says:

    broken:

    meant

    metals such as titanium and steel WERE NOT widely worked with until the last 2-300 years. as they are very hard metals to work with and can require modern machining methods

  420. lehman really final straw? says:

    Am wondering if the event of Lehman failing was really the final straw, or if it was the quick policy reversal AFTER that failure, back to a posture of bailing-out, that has so thoroughly eroded confidence.

    In an environment in which credibility is so important (and so woefully lacking to begin with), and given the breadth of the impending disaster (as predicted by blogs like this and others for at least 18 months), it seems the Feds strongest, most authoritative stance would have been a defensive one, meaning a consistent posture after Lehman to allow the financial industry to work these problems out for themselves (understanding the economic turmoil this implies).

    Now, as a result of massive AND ineffective federal intervention, it seems we have both lost all credibility AND diluted any hopes of a strong defense as this contagion spreads.

    Big picture, it seems to me the Fed has allowed to contagion to infect the entire aparatus of the government with absolutely no upside.

    Its a classic and ugly dynamically unstable system, with a terrible pilot at the stick – instead of pushing the nose down to break the stall, he keeps pulling back and adding juice, delaying the inevitable and diminishing hopes of recovery.

    How will the bailouts play out – rampant inflation as the presses get printing? Finagling more currency from the Chinese? Really, once the future is completely mortgaged and the rates cut to zero, where else can they/we go?

  421. still_looking says:

    Maryland. Hmmm, I don’t know anything about that area.

    Be careful as some pharmacies might not honor an out of state prescription.

    Is there any local doc who can see you?

    Also… take Motrin [provided you are not allergic, on coumadin, have ulcers…etc] — if you are atleast 140 lbs, you can take even 800 mg as a single dose.

    It will reduce some of the inflammation and swelling.

    PLEASE keep it elevated [above the level of your heart] as much as you can — make a sling and keep the hand high up.

    It’s possible that most of this is inflammation rather than infection. Cat bites are notorious for that — dog bites aren’t even as bad.

    If you don’t have a fever you probably can safely wait til morning HOWEVER: If you feel worse, go immediately.

    If you have hardware [ie knee replacements, valve replacements, stents etc] or no spleen or are immune compromised in any way, pregnancy, on cortisone, medrol or prednisone, or other reasons, then GO NOW.

    Motrin and elevation will be your best friends….

    Do not soak it in hot water. Do not rub alcohol into it, do not prod poke or pick at the site.

    sl

  422. Victorian says:

    436 sl-
    I am never getting a cat :).

  423. kettle1 says:

    oopppsss i would do all 3 first….

  424. kettle1 says:

    Vic,

    SL may correct me, but i believe human bits are some of the worst human mouths are filthy from a bacteria standpoint.

    get rid of any humans in the house

  425. Pat says:

    You’re great. And correct on the interstate issue. What red tape.

    Hubby found the Motrin. In the a.m., I’ll call the Indian orthopedic guy down in Gaithersburg who was the only one who would see me right away when I fell down the steps in August. Maybe he can do an RX.

    Thanks again. You should receive an invite to the compound.

  426. Barbara says:

    Hey, sorry guys for being AFK. I appreciate all your responses about my gold question. I still think that it may be vulnerable despite its otherwise solid history because at the end of the day, technology will keep you alive, not gold. For example if we ever standardize fuel cells, powerful fuel cells and they are complex and made of rare or hard to work with materials, I think that in the dark days, people will take your fuel cells over gold.
    I just think it has its limitations in more extreme scenarios. Admittedly, the original question was thought up during one of my apocalyptic day dreams.
    But I digress…

  427. kettle1 says:

    vic 437:

    hey man, there is nothing thats says “i love you” like coming home to a severed mouse head left on the bed for you as a gift.

    the tail gets left at the site of the kill as a would be warning to any other trespassers :)

  428. kettle1 says:

    barbara

    with all due respect

    technology will keep you alive, not gold

    i disagree 100%. the more technologically advanced you are and the more your tech is integrated into society, the more vulnerable you are. In short and in general, the more complex the system the easier it is to cripple.

    Ask to explain at the next GTG

  429. kettle1 says:

    barbara,

    there are actually mathematical proofs of this. if thats your thing. its very high level math. beyond my level anyway

  430. Barbara says:

    Kettle,
    I’m talking about a generator.

  431. lisoosh says:

    The way things are going I would think a little weed would serve as a pretty good defacto currency.

  432. Clotpoll says:

    Nikkei down 10.5%.

    Hang Seng down close to 8%.

    Gonna be a long night. Up at 5. Tomorrow may be the big barf.

    This is a perfect weekend to test-drive some martial law. Scary thing is, I think most people will welcome it.

    Nite all.

  433. Clotpoll says:

    soosh (447)-

    Smoke ’em if you got ’em.

  434. stu says:

    will I have a country to come home to on saturday?

  435. NJGator says:

    from roubini…
    Thursday midnite update: A few hours after I had written this note the market crash that I warned about is underway in Asia: the Nikkei index in Japan is down 11% and all other Asian markets are sharply down. This reinforces the urgency of credible and rapid policy actions by the G7 financial officials who are meeting in a few hours in Washington and the need to also involve in such global policy coordination the systemically important emergent market economies.

  436. njrebear says:

    Someone tape Roubini’s mouth!

  437. Clotpoll says:

    The first order of business at the G7 meeting should be for these guys to gang up and kick Klink’s ass.

  438. Clotpoll says:

    Klink and Bergabe should be arrested and jailed.

  439. Cindy says:

    (396) yome

    Thanks for the article – Letting Lehman Fail… You saved me tons of time googleing….

  440. still_looking says:

    grim can you delete 446 (duplicate)

    and unmoderate 450?

    Thanks!

    sl

  441. Clotpoll says:

    Jim Rogers on UK Squawk overnight, calling Bernanke and Klink “morons” and suggesting the G7 go to a bar, have some beers and leave us alone.

    He is long yen & Swiss francs.

    Tried to find the video at CNBC and YouTube, but I can’t.

  442. still_looking says:

    Clot, 455

    Depression 2.0

    Buckle up — it’s gonna get hairier!!

    sl

  443. Sean says:

    sigh, bye bye JPM I hear…….. commence the run on the bank.

  444. Sean says:

    Opps! correct that prediction, I meant Morgan Stanley.

    Run on the bank folks….

  445. Cindy says:

    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

    Dr. Housing Bubble’s take on the losses so far..

  446. Confused In NJ says:

    Good description on Fox last night about the the True Cause of Financial Woe, “the Collapse of the Fiet system”. It’s irreversible.

  447. DL says:

    Loved watching the Money Honey on CNBC yesterday. She sounded like she was hyperventilating. Wonder what GE’s numbers will look like. Think she’s worried about her job?

  448. Clotpoll says:

    Overnight USD LIBOR sliced in half. Longer dated LIBOR rates up again.

    What’s up?

  449. still_looking says:

    maybe it’s time to return to the “gold standard” measurement of currency?

    sl

  450. Yikes says:

    can somebody take this thread, print it out, and bury it in a time capsule?

  451. Communist says:

    It is great that government can tax more, even if property owners can no longer afford property tax. goverment can confiscate property and sell it for a profit. Wee!

Comments are closed.