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“Grim futures”
Headline on Marketwatch
second
From Bloomberg:
Lehman Failure May Spark Record Payout for Credit Swap Sellers
The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may force sellers of credit-default swaps including Pacific Investment Management Co. to make the biggest- ever payout in the $55 trillion market.
An auction to be held today will determine the size of the payments buyers of default protection can claim after New York- based Lehman filed for the largest bankruptcy with $618 billion in debt. Lehman’s $128 billion of bonds were trading yesterday at an average of 13 cents on the dollar, indicating credit swap sellers may have to pay 87 cents on the dollar.
“That’s a big hit,” said Byron Douglass, a strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California. He follows the market for collateralized debt obligations that sold protection on Lehman debt. The payment compares with a typical bond recovery of about 40 cents on the dollar and a payout closer to 60 cents, Douglass said.
Didn’t sleep well last night. Starting thinking about exit strategies … should the s*it really hit the fan.
Don’t have gold yet, but that’s on the list for this weekend, along with the essentials and two weapons.
I know that’s “fringe” and doom and gloom … but what’s going on is scary as heck.
We’ve got our go-bags ready, and directions to the safe house (a country house), where a relative and a few of their friends have an arsenal.
dont know about wireless internet, though …
Yikes- you forgot one thing…..dairy queen blizzards. You must, must stock up on them. Other than that, sounds like a plan
stan – not a fan of those, actually.
Fox is talking about Ben cutting rates again after 3:30 P.M. Maybe they’ll create a new Law forcing All Americans to put all available Cash in the Market.
Clot –
Jim Rogers Video on Bloomberg. Says buy Gold, Agriculture.
From the WSJ:
U.S. Weighs Backing Bank Debt
Removing Deposit Insurance Limits Also on the Table
The U.S. is weighing two dramatic steps to repair ailing financial markets: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits.
If the two moves come to fruition they would mark the government’s most extensive intervention yet in the financial system, as officials ponder increasingly far-reaching measures to stem the sprawling crisis.
…
The move to back all U.S. bank deposits, which is only in the discussion stage, would be aimed at preventing a further exodus of cash from financial institutions, including small and regional banks, some of which are buckling under the strain of nervous customers. In recent weeks, customers have pulled money out of some healthy community banks under the assumption that the government will only insure all the depositors of larger banks in the event of a failure.
To remove the ceiling on deposit insurance, multiple government agencies would first need to agree that there was a “systemic risk” to the economy, thereby invoking a rarely used legal power. Amid repeated efforts by the federal government to prop up ailing institutions, some bank regulators say the move is justified.
“The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may force sellers of credit-default swaps including Pacific Investment Management Co. to make the biggest- ever payout in the $55 trillion market.”
Bleed them dry. If you want to write ins, collect premium, you must pay the piper after the storm hits. Hey, collecting premiun is money in the bank, only as long as the market cooperates.
vic [8],
That Jim Roger’s guy is one smart whip. Speaking of ag, Clot, have you found me my silo?
From Yahoo Finance:
European markets plunge again; Nikkei plummets
European stock markets slumped in early trading Friday following massive sell-offs on Wall Street and Asia as lending rates between banks continue to rise despite this week’s efforts by central banks to break the logjam in credit markets.
At mid-morning London time, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 233.84, or 5.4 percent, at 4,079.96, having fallen below the 4,000 mark earlier for the first time in five years. Germany’s DAX was 383.70, or 7.9 percent, at 4,503.30, and France’s CAC-40 was 209.67, or 6.1 percent lower at 3,233.03.
…
Few places escaped the deepening gloom. In Australia, where the S&P/ASX200 plummeted a record 8.3 percent, market watchers were calling it “Black Friday.” Key indices in Hong Kong, Singapore, the Philippines and India were all down about 8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi closed down 4.1 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index posted a more moderate decline of 2.8 percent.
What a beautiful morn on the Hudson.
BC-
What is your outlook on the dollar? Rogers seems to think that the reason for the rise in the dollar is due to massive unwinding of short positions.
“kettle1 Says:
October 9th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Vic,
SL may correct me, but i believe human bits are some of the worst human mouths are filthy from a bacteria standpoint.
get rid of any humans in the house”
kettle,
When Rodman was “doing” Kabbalah with Madonna, nobody, in the NBA, wanted to guard him. Karl Malone said he would need a full body condom to bang bodies with him.
5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling
http://seekingalpha.com/article/99359-5-reasons-stocks-will-keep-falling
BC – Assuming we don’t veer into martial law in the next two months … isn’t the move to buy a house in the spring of 09 simply to do something with all the cash you have saved … just in case the dollar tanks by late 09/10?
I’d be pissed if all that cash we saved all of a sudden became worthless.
ANOTHER REASON YOU DO NOT WANT ONE PARTY RULE IN DC:
Congress mulls major 401(k) changes
With respect to the 401(k), it appears to be a plan that is not really well-devised for the changes in the market,” Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., said.
“We’ve invested $80 billion into subsidizing this activity,” he said, referring to tax breaks allowed for 401(k) contributions and savings.
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008810079894
How long does the gun purchase process take in NJ? The legal one, not the talk to people in the projects one.
vic[14],
Massive, massive unwinding of hedgies, repatriation, rush to t-bills. In addition to this, many European banks have swap lines with their cb’s, swapping garbage, fleeing to US t-bills. In a deflationary environment, the dollar cross will gain on most currencies. One exception, the yen; the carry trade that fueled this insanity. Mrs Wantabe has been laid to rest, joining the Beardstown Ladies.
“isn’t the move to buy a house in the spring of 09 simply to do something with all the cash you have saved … just in case the dollar tanks by late 09/10?”
Yikes[17],
If your scenario is correct, I’d rather be in gold. The gold/re spread will skyrocket, based on your theme. That said, 30-50% off peak RE may be enough to induce me.
New guy here. I would like to move from Hunterdon to Bucks. No financial distress, I own my house (paid cash for it), it’s just time for a move. Am I crazy to try listing it now? Do buyers have any confidence left or credit available?
Anyone have sale data, tips, or hints for Kingwood/Alexandria townships in Hunterdon?
Thanks
Cindy Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 7:00 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZkUTVSfXcnE&refer=home
A little Roubini in the morning..
C: He’s set for the rest of his career. He can just do the lecture circuit. Maybe he will get his own show on the Food Network. Cooking the Books with Nouriel……
How long does the gun purchase process take in NJ? The legal one, not the talk to people in the projects one.
I believe it took me 7 months to get a permit.
This still feels like the 70’s
“Carter” headed to the White House…
Volcker as an adviser during an eventual inflationary period…
Trouble with Iran/Iraq…
Deja Vu
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/03/18/just-how-low-will-benny-go/#comment-167379
# grim Says:
March 18th, 2008 at 10:03 am
The handgun permitting process took 7 months.
Yes, you read that right, 7 months.
Anyone who thinks you can get a handgun in a month is out of their mind.
That includes 3 visits to the local police station, two character witnesses, background and psychological check, 3 sets of fingerprints, and a NICS check (FBI) when I actually purchased the gun.
Yikes Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 7:19 am
I know that’s “fringe” and doom and gloom … but what’s going on is scary as heck.
Yikes: Do you have mental health benefits?
Despite the fact that the law says something about the limit being 60 or 90 days.
I hear it helps if you have close friends in the local PD.
Yikes: Do you have mental health benefits?
My biggest worry this morning is whether or not I should have a very-tasty-second-slice of this banana nut loaf.
To-
19. HeHeHe
Not sure about the legal process for a gun…What you need are a few that don’t have a paper trail…NJ would be the same as New Orleans after Katrina…The law went around taking registered weapons from the law abiding citizens…Better to ask for forgiveness than permission in this case…Stock up now…In the case of a National Emergency The People’s Republic of New Jersey won’t be a pretty place.
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2243
This should scareyou, btw I am off to a CEO meeting on Wall Street in a few minutes, questions anyone.
Tarp seems to be working like a charm on mortgage rates
https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates
Look….I’ve been canvassing information all over the place. I know all of you do as well. From my perspective, the major posters here are decidedly more negative than is constructive. Without diving into semantics about what is the best investment and which strategy will work, simply, if you had an approach for your investing that you put in place during this year, there is no good reason to change that approach right now. In fact, under such duress in the markets, I have evidence of substantial disconnects between economic value and stock prices.
Basically 60 days in NJ to get your permit. Main time is Feds checking your finger prints and background. At 9/11 took me 90 days to get my first Ruger.
Jersey Jim,
C’mon, you know that is reckless advice. I’m tempted to delete your comment, but your email address was just too interesting.
Sorry, I’ll watch any future comments.
Frank [32],
Enlightening. It hasn’t been a rate issue for the past couple of years. It’s insolvency.
“I have evidence of substantial disconnects between economic value and stock prices.”
Chi,
You may be right. However, the margin clerk could give a hoot regarding disconnects.
Grim (29) “Tasty banana nut loaf”
You the chef?…or…Is there a lady preparing these tasty delights???
JJ,
Nah, don’t worry about it. Don’t hold back, few here do.
I am taking mty money out of the market. Do i want to keep it in bank ??? I may buy some properly priced real estate.
You the chef?…or…Is there a lady preparing these tasty delights???
Came from a factory in China, the three main ingredients are paperboard, melamine, and lead. :)
I am taking mty money out of the market.
Not to butt into your financial decisions, but don’t you think it might be a little late to be selling?
(43) Grim.. LOL
Any idea of how long a process for shotgun/rifle permit?
I the NJ handgun permits were a pain.
#32 – %9 5/8 for a 30yr Jumbo. That’ll help things along nicely.
Any idea of how long a process for shotgun/rifle permit?
What you are looking for is a firearms purchaser permit (or Firearms ID card). Generally, a much quicker process.
I know you all think I’m crazy but I’m flat out ecstatic about my 403b dollar-cost-averaging with Meredith Whitney…Remember, I have so little money to invest that it will not affect my overall financial situation. I will be depending on a pension – for better or worse.
#32 – %9 5/8 for a 30yr Jumbo. That’ll help things along nicely.
Tosh, realize that the conforming loan limit (aka Jumbo) is no longer $417k in New Jersey, but $729,750 for most of our area.
Frankly, I don’t think a 9 handle attached to a $700k loan is terribly out of line, given the situation.
Likewise, the ability to borrow at amounts approaching $700,000 at 6.25%? That just doesn’t scream credit crisis and a seizure of the mortgage market to me.
#47 – Good, I’m much more comfortable with a shotgun. There isn’t a human on the planet who doesn’t know what the sound of a pump shotty being racked means.
Pfizer had a conf call this morning. Massive – MASSIVE layoffs coming. Higher-ups wont give any specific #’s, but everyone is fearing for the worst.
Mostly district managers are in trouble, but everyone panicking.
#47 – Good, I’m much more comfortable with a shotgun. There isn’t a human on the planet who doesn’t know what the sound of a pump shotty being racked means.
Springfield M1A or a 5D MkII?
The New Age of Frugality
Americans’ charge-it culture is getting an overdue reality check. But will the new discipline stick?
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_42/b4104054847273.htm
On a shady lane in New Hope, Pa., a quiet revolution in American culture may be taking shape. Here, a family of four lives in a white, colonial-style house in a manner that once would have been considered All-American but more recently has been seen as just plain weird: They’re frugal.
John-
Re:CEO Questions-
FInd out where their After Party is….I hear they throw a hell of a bash.
So much for capping property taxes..
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. gets 39 town requests to exceed property-tax cap
aps aimed at curbing property taxes are not keeping the rates down for everyone in New Jersey.
So far in 2008, 39 towns have asked the state’s Local Finance Board to increase taxes beyond the state’s 4 percent limit.
The board approved all but one request, although some towns received smaller waivers than they asked for.
Town officials said the cap, adopted last year, came at a bad time. Pension, energy and health care costs have been rising as state aid to most towns has been falling.
The cap waivers have added $25 million to tax bills in the towns where they have been granted.
#49 – See, here’s where things get somewhat confusing. I’ve seen a few other people, and people who aren’t idiots, make the claim that even though FNM was given an exception to purchase loans over $417k their rate standard pricing still holds. That is, anything over $417k still qualifies as a jumbo and is priced as one FNM can just buy it now.
Since I’m not in the mortgage biz anymore I’m not sure, and the FNM site isn’t too much of a help. Does anybody know for sure.
#52 – M1A, the exact gun I’ve been thinking about. Maybe an M14 though.
vic (8)-
Rogers was much funnier on UK Squawk. He called Bergabe and Klink “morons” and urged the G7 to “go to a bar, have some beers, and leave us alone”.
I’d say he got today’s party started the right way.
John Gutfreund on CNBC. Looks embalmed.
vic (8)-
MOS, POT might be trading at just over book when the dust settles.
TED is at 448bp today. I suppose it’ll go down a bit after the Lehman cds issues are resolved,! but even a 100bp movement down leaves it very high.
Seeing that Halloween is right around the corner, does anyone know what kind of sales houses/properties with 666 in the address are doing? Or better yet, how have they sold even when the market was good? Just curious as i think it would be interesting. Come to think of it, is there any loop hole that can be used so a house/property CAN’T be numbered something like 666?
BC (10)-
Time for Bill Gross to feel the pain. It’s all fun and games…until somebody puts an eye out.
Playtime turns tragic.
PIMCO paying out .87/USD. It’s a good thing.
The smarter and less Rambo course of action is to buy insurance and get yourself a plan of escape for you and your family.
From the Record:
Bergen takes unusual role of lender to schools
When municipal borrowing ground virtually to a halt last month, a pair of Bergen County school districts turned to an unlikely lender — Bergen County itself.
The county lent a total of $11.5 million to the Bergen County Technical Schools and the Bergen County Special Services District, which share offices in Paramus. The county extended the loans on Sept. 26 after both districts failed to find a single bidder for short-term notes to fund operations through Dec. 10, officials said.
It’s a novel arrangement, one that could become more common as long as the turmoil in the credit market persists, said Ed McManimon, the Newark municipal finance attorney who suggested the deal.
The school districts were able to borrow money — $6.5 million for the technical schools district and $5 million for the special services district — at a time when the market for municipal bonds and notes is at a virtual standstill, McManimon said. Bergen County, which made the loan from its $24 million surplus, will recoup 3.24 percent interest when the notes mature in December, McManimon said.
“It’s a good thing, in my view, because they can help each other while the market is drying up,” McManimon said. “They have the flexibility to find solutions, as opposed to groping around at the last minute to avoid default.”
BC (11)-
“Clot, have you found me my silo?”
Yeah. But it’s got a nuclear missile in it.
PIMCO paying out .87/USD. It’s a good thing.
Providing insurance or plain ol’ gambling?
Ok, enough Mad Max talk for today.
#64 – Where’s the fun in that? I’ve already bought a hockey mask and some B&D gear in anticipation!
I am seriosly considering getting a gun for a while now… Not due to current crisis but in general (For some reason it is scares my wife???)…
More Interesting question – What are the approximate costs for getting NJ Gun permit??
If it is anything like “Applying for citizenship” (several thousands so far and I had is the easiest possible way with minimum paperwork and hustle. I can even think of people who are getting a lawyer…) Just regular forms filing fee’s and fingerprinting fee’s adding up to over 3K…
P.S. People, once again, – don’t you think you are overreacting a bit with emergency bags packed and safe-houses ready?? Lived through collapse of one country I can say it is not too bad… you will be ok in your house…
And we’ve got the quote of the day!
Lived through collapse of one country I can say it is not too bad…
Grim (42)
Came from a factory in China, the three main ingredients are paperboard, melamine, and lead. :)
Well the good news if you get sick, you can work with Weitz & Luxenberg out of Manhattan who now have Erin Brockovich as their frontwoman. Not the hooker version, the real version.
#55 grim: So they print this article, but they did not think that perhaps readers might like to know which 39 towns requested the increase.
Actually thinking of picking up an M14 for me as .223 is relatively cheap and easy to find. I am applying for my FFL almost easier to get than a NJ firearms ID card, but you will still need the Firearms ID to purchase in state.
Pfizer is the Lehman of the pharma world they have been trying to raise capital as they have made a bunch of bad investments on partnerships and acquisitions, including one of my former employers. They were forced to sell off their consumer healthcare unit to J&J as they needed the cash, that didn’t work so they had to go to plan B. They were highly leveraged a few years ago and threw money around like you would not believe. I wonder how some of the former folks I was forced to work with over there are doing, guess I’ll make a call.
well boy howdy, tenant downstairs just informed me of some obvious and fresh screw driver marks on our common front door jam. And right after I read here with all of your gun talk.
Again and again, this board is ahead of the curve ;P
An answer to a question I had the other day, that others may also be wondering about today:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27113937
“When Do Market Circuit Breakers Kick In
As harrowing as the U.S. stock market’s plunges have been in recent days, they still haven’t been enough to trigger the “circuit breaker” mechanisms that result in an automatic timeout in trading.
The Big Board implemented the automatic halts after the stock market crashed in the late 1980s to force traders to take a break from frenzied selling. But even amid the massive losses seen in the market this week, the thresholds have yet to be breached, unlike in many other nations which have temporarily suspended trading multiple times.
On Friday, the stock exchange in Vienna was suspended until midday after stocks tumbled 10 percent at the opening bell, and in Russia representatives of the MICEX and RTS exchanges said they suspended regular trading until further notice under orders from financial regulators.
Indonesian authorities suspended trading indefinitely on the Jakarta Stock Exchange after they had halted trading Wednesday after the index plunged more than 10 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average would have to fall 1,100 points in a day to trigger the first halt. Based on Thursday’s Dow close of 8,579, the threshold number to cause the market to stop on Friday would be 7,479. If that point is reached before 2 p.m., the market will shut down for an hour. If the threshold is breached between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m., the halt will last 30 minutes. No trading stops would take place if the plunge occurs after 2:30 p.m.
If the index were to fall 2,200 points before 1 p.m., the market would close for two hours. If such a decline took place between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m., there would be a one-hour pause. The market would close for the day if stocks sank to that level after 2 p.m.
In the event of a 3,350-point decline, the market would close for the day, regardless of the time.
The thresholds are computed at the beginning of each quarter to establish a specific point value for the quarter. The 1,100-point drop represented a 10 percent decline at that time; the 2,200 level, a 20 percent drop and the 3,350 level is a 30 percent drop.
The rules would halt trading on the major securities and futures exchanges in a coordinated cross-market halt if the circuit breaker is enacted. “
anyone like GM this morning?
If all my time playing Call of Duty 4 taught me anything is that in a time of need I require a P90, a Marksman with an ACOG and the same group of 13 year olds who kick my butt on-line every night.
Firing Bernanke and Paulson on the spot today would give the markets some lift.
Ok, everyone now put you hands up in the air and scream Wheeee!!!!!!
Seriously – it might get bad economically, and crime might go up (it always does during bad times) but to prepare for Civil was scenario – well it is a bit far fetched, don’t you think?
Lets discuss housing – all over the worl goverments printing money. Will we see Global hyper-inflation???
When will it overcome deflation and when are you going to buy a house?
Currently I am considering some stocks buying as I believe there are some stocks priced well below their real value – panic is settling. but it is so hard to rid with cash… So far it outperformed my mutual funds by close to 24% in the last year.
56 tosh
the M1A is just the commercial version of the M14. minimal difference between the two in most aspects.
Civil was = should be = Civil War
Am I reading that ticker right?
down down 1125 already?
8100? we could hit 7000’s by 10 am????
Whew, good lord, Yahoo was showing 919 points down on the DOW just a second ago.
Circutbreaker by 10:00 AM?
John (31)-
Question: do they have enough Vaseline to go around?
down 1200
we’re in the 7000s
http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582
Black Friday is coming a couple of weeks early this year…
Dow with a 7
down 1369 f’ing points!!!!!!
81.
any particular stocks you are looking at? People tend to spend on entertainment during hard times. I wonder if the talkies will be racking good numbers in the near future.
Are those numbers right?
chi (33)-
“From my perspective, the major posters here are decidedly more negative than is constructive.”
From my perspective, we have been just negative enough to also be correct.
78 Escape,
Yoou arent kidding,
The US military actively looks for recruits with video gaming experience to train in operating the newer automated combat systems. Those who havent grown up with video games are never as effective as a remote pilot of similar compared to those that have.
The funny thing is that they have found that soldiers who have a lot of video gaming experience can be better remote pilots then an air force pilot who has flown for years……
Applying for firearm permits in New Jersey
http://www.njguns.com/permit.htm
general cost is $45-$64
Chi (33)-
“I have evidence of substantial disconnects between economic value and stock prices.”
That evidence will be of great value on the back side of the most epic collapse in Wall St history. My buy list is burgeoning with all kinds of juicy stuff. I can’t wait to buy again.
96.
To be fair, I did bring up possible cannibalism in the near future a few days ago. Perhaps I’m over reacting.
33. Point taken.
I will not give an investment advice in this site :)
Besides I am confident that my investment advice will be crap.
I am not even a finance professional.
My general strategy:
When I look at the particula stocks I analyze what excactly the product of the company and can people live without this particular product or not. After that I look at earnings for tha last 10years and long term sustainability of the company.
If I find a company significantly underpriced (compare to earnings (lets say shares are multiple of 8 of earnings ) I will buy it.
I haven’t bought anything yet, and starting to invest into stocks might mean postponing home purchace for indefinite time, as only cash I have is for house downpayment, and while house prices are falling I am still making money.
But this current stocks collapse is just too tempting.
Subprime is contained… carry on.
Numbers don’t jive between marketwatch and yahoo, someone is messing with the feeds.
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/indu
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI
Numbers don’t jive between marketwatch and yahoo, someone is messing with the feeds.
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/indu
Things aren’t looking good for the home team. This is a major, major correction. You could always say, “Well, at least oil is down,” but of course it looks like we’ll all be out of jobs/money to buy any gas in the near future.
dow back up 400 (8200). King henry at work?
(105) Kettle1 – but Bush is about to speak…..
yeah, the numbers look weird, but google finance says at 938 the dow touched 7957.
dow back up 400 (8200). King henry at work?
At this point all numbers are suspect, something is clearly not working properly.
Cindy Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 9:47 am
(105) Kettle1 – but Bush is about to speak…..
I think he should just come out and be quiet for 30 minutes…. Markets will skyrocket. If he says anything – all bets are off.
And Kettle – thanks for the post #98.
REgarding 1200 pts drop – it might be some technical glitch based on how the indeces are calculated at the trades opening:
scared people all selling at the same time – last night 1000’s of places put in “sell order”.
Went in effect this morning with the opening.
Anyways I am off till this afternoon. It will be an “interesting” Friday.
NYT headline:
Global Markets Dive in Relentless Selloff
DO you think Joe Sixpack knows what’s going on yet?
Suzie sixpack definitely knows – they cut into Regis (and interview with Russell Crowe!!) to the stock market’s opening for at least 4 mins
Yahoo at one point said over 1000 down and now says 900 down, even though their chart shows max of 400 down someone is messing with the feeds, like they added 500 points to it.
Marketwatch says 8568 Open and low of 7,882 with current number at 8319 only 259 down.
Someone is up to Hanky Panky on yahoo.
cindy
Oh crap, here we go……..
Jim,
Oil is the least of yuor worries for at least the next year. oil will continue to go down even though OPEC is going to have an emergency meeting to cut output in November. Demand is crashing and the strengthening dollar are both acting to push oil down.
CNBC guy: “Right now, the market is cash starved.”
this makes me not want to shell out 4600k today to buy a used car.
maybe i should just spend it all on gold?
#18
WTF? is congress really considering eliminating the tax deferred status of 401ks? anyone know anything more about this?
NYSE’s own chart seems accurate.
http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/lcddata.html?ticker=NYA
yahoo ticker is down. I will be forced to watch CNBC. Bastards.
I bought calls for the weekend. Crazy? Probably.
I think the commodities are getting hammered and the financials are up. I think this might be the next stage of the hedge fund clean up. Those funds in trouble are selling the silver, those with cash are shopping like Carrie Bradshaw in Barneys.
Kettle,
Agreed, but oil at $40-60 is likely to be the greatest buying opportunity in the history of buying opportunities in oil and oil service stocks. Off course just the personal opinion of a madman here, not a professional.
never ever trust yahoo financial data!!!
121
I’m no day trader so I just look at it for entertainment purposes.
New guy here. I would like to move from Hunterdon to Bucks. No financial distress, I own my house (paid cash for it), it’s just time for a move. Am I crazy to try listing it now? Do buyers have any confidence left or credit available?
Anyone have sale data, tips, or hints for Kingwood/Alexandria townships in Hunterdon?
Thanks
I’m in Bucks. it’s radical out here. And much easier to get a gun! All you need is a PA license. Permit only needed to carry.
7000 dow, hogwash you better hurry up before the sale ends:
COLDWELL BANKER’S 10 DAY HOME SALE EVENT!
312 N. Riverside Drive, Shark River Hills, NJ
You are invited! This home has been reduced by 5% to $427,407. Act now! The sale ends October 19th and the price will go back up. I will be hosting a Public Open House
Sunday, Oct. 12, 2008 from 12pm to 3pm.
I would enjoy meeting you and introducing you to this lovely 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home. Other features include: cozy den, attached direct entry garage, partially finished basement, living room, dining room and eat-in kitchen. Hardwood floors, full appliance package, private backyard, walking distance to the Shark River, close to major roads and Jersey Shore Medical Center make this home and location perfect! If this home is not what you are looking for, please don’t hesitate to contact me. I have access to every home on the market, regardless of the company it is listed with, I’d be happy to provide you with an overview of the home buying process, and additional information about all available properties.
124.
OMG.
Where the heck is Shark River Hills?
Skep,
The article made no mention of specifics. There was some babble about one given the option of buying gubmint bonds. Brilliant, if they propose taking away the tax benefits of the 401k. Gubmint wants to take away any and all incentives to that will actually help a few people save.
And we are green!!!!
HEHE
oil service companies are going to get rocked. They operate off of a high level of credit. If the credit markets are dried up then they cannot function as their operations are capital intensive. The big boys such as Shell and ExxonMobile have plenty of cash and it looks like there could be some contraction in the oil servicing field between companies going out of business and the big boys either buying others or securing long term exclusive contracts with them in exchange for funding operations.
Another unexpected bit is that a fair amount of legacy oil infrastructure in the gulf of mexico was damaged during the last 2 hurricanes. This is equipment that was still being used to extract oil but was very old and uneconomical to replace. Now that it has been damaged or destroyed you will see that production semi-permanently lost. Even increasing oil prices may not help as we are starting to see a receding horizon effect as cost of production is going up noticeably.
Egads! The chart of the Dow looks like a bloody EKG display.
I’ve never even heard of Shark River Hills, NJ!
kettle1,
There was a great scifi book series by Orson Scott Card, called Enders Game, that had a similar premise. It was about children in the future trained to play video games, thinking they were just games, but in fact were ultimately piloting machines of war. Great series.
And we are red.
Vic,
I wonder what paulson and the PPT had to promise and to who, to pull that off?
ChiFi –
We aren’t changing anything about our market habits. we’re young, so we kept it in, just shifted things around (heavy gold, bought SKF)
but instead of 1000 a month into the market, we’ll do just 500 for a few months. canned goods and ammo are expensive, you know.
“Where the heck is Shark River Hills?”
Grim,
If you look at a map, it is north of 138, east of 18, it fronts the part of the Shark River that bulges out like a littl bay (just west of Belmar), and it is south of 66.
weeeeeeee
http://tinyurl.com/3sryph
SKF briefly hit 205 and is now negaitve.
here’s the gem in shark river hills:
http://coldwellbanker.com/servlet/SearchProperty?action=quickSearch&newSearch=true
#49
“Tosh, realize that the conforming loan limit (aka Jumbo) is no longer $417k in New Jersey, but $729,750 for most of our area.
Frankly, I don’t think a 9 handle attached to a $700k loan is terribly out of line, given the situation.
Likewise, the ability to borrow at amounts approaching $700,000 at 6.25%? That just doesn’t scream credit crisis and a seizure of the mortgage market to me.”
************
I am still confused on how the higher conforming limits are operating in practice. Are loans at 6.25% still getting done at $729k? Is FHA doing these types of loans at conforming rates with 3% down? If so, I would agree that real estate finance is still incredible loose. I am seeing secured corporate bank loans going at credit card type rates (as a means of comparison)
Pat, How is your hand this morning??
My last post got moderated somehow….
Maybe Grim can unmod #450 from yesterday’s thread??? :-)
sl
Kettle,
Not the one’s I have targeted. I am only looking at those with 2.0+ current ratios. The vultures, not the carrion.
Hard Place,
Have read it many times. agree its a great series
Why is Princeton real estate so much more than even neighboring towns with excellent school systems (many even argue better) such as Skillman and South Brunswick? Is it just the ‘prestige’ factor?
It just seems odd because much of the housing stock is very old and small.
Bush speaking. Prepare for market slide.
I bought calls for the weekend. Crazy? Probably.
I believe that between today and monday the Dow will rally over 1,000 points.
I’m really crazy.possible.
[144]
Yes. Even those in surrounding communities not part of the boro, like Plainsboro, use a “Princeton” address. It is very bankable.
With this rapid decline in the markets, even good companies are being ravaged. I’m typically invested in only value type stocks with little debt and relatively stable businesses. Wish I had sold some of these companies so I could buy them back now at a 30% discount. Thought I could hide w/ some gold company investments, but those have been ravaged as well. Certainly some amount of fear in this market, that’s why Buffet has been out buying. He loves this type of environment. His investment in GE & Constellation Energy is astute.
Will someone shoot that crow in the background of Bushie’s chat? Or is it a raven?
[146] Make
Just my 0.02 but I think that there are a lot of people that will sell into any sign of strength and this is what is keeping the market from getting off the mat (in part, not the whole cause obviously).
[149]
Is it saying “nevermore”?
everyone cashed out of skf at 200, it seems like.
War of the Worlds-talk:
– a glock 40 is only 545
– a S&W revolver with the crimson trace (that cool red dot that helps accuracy) is a cool $470.
so 2 handguns, plus bullets and other bells and whistles … looking at like $1200-1500
Interesting the biggest wall street c-level short term worry is GM. Turns out their is a huge amount of CDS paper on GM and several market makers and smaller BDs have got fat writing CDS on GM for the last ten year. All the way back to the Russian Crisis. GM has never failed and all those contracts expired worthless and it has been a very very very high risk way to make a lot of money. Well GM CDS is through the roof and the BDs and Market Makers sitting with the CDS they wrote can’t sell them unless it is at a major major loss so they have no choice but to stop writing GM CDS and cross their fingers and pray that GM can last long enough for enough of them to expire so they won’t go bankrupt. However, if GM was to go bankrupt today several BDs and market makers would instantly go bankrupt as they can’t pay out to cover the losses and a chain reaction would occur as all the BDs who are sitting on huge paper gains on their GM CDS that would offset their huge losses on GM bonds will now also face either a huge unexpected loss or bankrupty. Of course a GM bankruptcy would push Ford over the edge within a month and then the creditors and bondholders would sieze assets such as cars in inventory and do massive bankruptcy sales of Caddies, Lincolns, Chevy, Saturns, Mercurys, Saabs, GMCs etc. Which in turn if you are a BMW, Mercedes, Toyota or Nissan dealer lookout below. Who the heck are buying those cars when creditors are selling brand new corvettes and Caddies for 15K. It is the chain reaction to end all chain reactions.
make [146],
I just think the G-7 have their #sses pinned to the wall. If they don’t give way the ranch this weekend, it’s light out. I don’t want to bet against a caged animal. I’m with them this weekend. If I’m wrong, it’s only premium.
Why would you want 2 handguns??? Doesn’t make sense – to have to rtools which do the same job. Buy one handgun and one medium caliber Hunting rifle (Enough stopping power for dear hunting) :)
Princeton and surrounding communities.
I was thinking about taking a gander at these areas, since I may move deeper into the den of NJ. NJ Transit lists train commute about 55-60 minutes to NY Penn Station from Princeton Junction. Is that realistic? I hear the NE Corridor line can be problematic.
Anyone know if there are express buses from these areas as well? and the commute times?
john/153-
jpm big stake in gm.
Bush speaks. Market now down over 200. Have you been instilled with confidence?
151 Nom
Let’s hope.
#82 – Ket – The primary difference for me was box magazine vs. stripper clip. I’d rather have a magazine.
Hey, I was on CNBC in the background @ around 10!
John,
GM CDS,
When I was at a larger bank we had a lot of GM loan exposure. A lot of that was offset by buying GM CDS as well. Let’s hope some of these banks had risk monitoring in place so they could see their net credit exposures to GM. The ones that have poor risk controls will certainly be in trouble.
That’s why Treasury opened up their purse to GM & Ford. They didn’t want to open pandora’s box should a bk occur.
[155] Al,
I disagree, it does make sense.
First, it doesn’t hurt to have different tools for different jobs (tho I would not agree with Yikes choices as they are different tools for the same job).
Second, it doesn’t hurt to have backup. Besides, you may need to arm someone else in a pinch.
Third, hand iron is going to get very scarce, very quickly, and I am even thinking of getting new nines (though I would sell my makarov because it takes unusual caliber).
Fourth, there won’t be a spike in rifle/shotgun sales, and these will continue to be available after the November Revolution (tho high cap mags and black versions won’t be–get those now).
Good time to buy hand iron and high cap mags. Hold off on longs unless you want black, which will be banned.
Al (155)
I hope the link works. But this is all you need.
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/imgs/p90.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/detail.asp%3Fsmallarms_id%3D84&h=250&w=300&sz=6&hl=en&start=8&usg=__e6wPIQDZ6YMuZHNxVbQizVLfwD0=&tbnid=S3praE7CX8owGM:&tbnh=97&tbnw=116&prev=/images%3Fq%3DP90%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den
Shark River Hills is realtor-speak for Neptune Township.
Talk about lipstick on a pig!
im glad to see so many people in here are so happy with this crash. i guess you all finally got your dream come true correct
—War Games—
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAcEzhQ7oqA
Kept me awake at nights in my youth. This movie came out and had a substantial effect on my view of technology.
I knew it. Bush speaks, market goes back into the tank.
I take no credit. Y’all have noted this phenomenon before.
Maybe we should have and market a Piehole Indicator, and an Ultrashort PieHole Fund, with shorts and puts timed for press conferences.
OK. Who believes that the Dow will close above 79XX today? If it does, and stays below 8k, my guy M is toast.
RayC, 149
OMIGOD.. I just told my husband, “Hear that bird?? It’s the turkey vulture about to start on the carrion!”
Didn’t think anyone else would notice it!!
sl
#139,
Link for Shark River home no good.
“I hear the NE Corridor line can be problematic.”
It can be AND there is the issue of changing trains in Long Branch.
must…not…feed….the….troll…..
sl
Yikes,
the S&W revolver may be less reliable then the glock. I would go for the Glock model 22 myself. 2 of them for the reason that Nom stated above.
A 1911 wouldn’t hurt either.
I wonder what the new national anthem will be?
kettle1 – Ender’s Game,
Apparently they have a movie in the works. If done right, would be excellent. I couldn’t put the book down. Of course I love scifi, so i’ve got a bit of geek in me.
Problem is banks bought CDS from counterparties like Lehman, Morgan Stanley, GS, Merrill etc. who at the time was high rock solid investment grade companies to protect GM bonds. Now they are like a guy who bought 30 year whole life from AIG last year.
GM can’t be allowed to go bankrupt in the next 12 months. The CME is trying to get the CDS market up and running and get it fully regulated by SEC, CFTC and NY State Insurance Department. They can get people to stop writing new CDS as since it will be officially insurance product your can write policies without having marketable securties held in collateral that the NYS Insurance Regulators can validate. All they can do now is get it regulated and get people with limited cash to stop writing CDS. But for that to work GM and Ford have to stay afloat to at least 2010.
Hard Place Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 10:42 am
John,
GM CDS,
When I was at a larger bank we had a lot of GM loan exposure. A lot of that was offset by buying GM CDS as well. Let’s hope some of these banks had risk monitoring in place so they could see their net credit exposures to GM. The ones that have poor risk controls will certainly be in trouble.
That’s why Treasury opened up their purse to GM & Ford. They didn’t want to open pandora’s box should a bk occur.
# anarchy1 Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 10:46 am
im glad to see so many people in here are so happy with this crash. i guess you all finally got your dream come true correct
Oh sweet irony :)
Comrade Nom,
national anthem….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLi_m656tQQ
HardPlace,
Sent you some updates……
The комиссар (commissar) is back in town:
Radical Measures May Be In The Wings
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27114651
10 Oct 2008 | 10:36 AM ET Text Size As the financial crisis threatens to spiral out of control, it’s more likely Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will take extraordinary steps through the extensive authority granted to him under emergency rescue legislation, say analysts.
With the legislation’s main mechanism—an auction system to purchase bad mortgage-based securities—still weeks away from implementation, Paulson may have to inject capital into any number of financial institutions—even non-depository ones like investment banks, insurers and hedge funds.
“I don’t wish to spread alarm on the line people but the big issue confronting the market is I’m afraid the health and sustainability of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs,” Hugh Hendry, Partner and CIO at Eclectica, told CNBC. “It is unimaginable that they can be allowed to go, I suspect that they will nationalized at some point today or over the weekend,” he add.
Some say the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008’s vague language gives Paulson almost unlimited power to intervene.
“He’s free to just strike deals, to do special deals,” says Lawrence White, a former White House economist and savings and loan regulator, who adds Congress was aware of the powers being given to Paulson and thus pressed hard for an oversight board.
snip
Who’s the black private dick
That’s a sex machine to all the chicks?
Name the song, songwriter and cause of death? Figured a little trivia will give us some relief from the bloodbath, kinda like telling jokes in a foxhole.
[170]
I practically lived on NE corridor trains over the past few years. I don’t know that there are any more delays there than on the Raritan line, and NE corridor trains do go to NYC. Of course, when that corridor fails, it fails spectacularly.
I am aware that there are also late night issues getting back to Princeton Junction station, so your schedule is a big factor. Parking is also a problem I am told.
On the plus side, if you are in the boro, you can ride the dinky, tho I don’t know how often it runs.
(Full disc—I was riding Amtrak all the time, not NJT)
[180]
Shaft. I think it was Issac Hayes. Can’t remember cause of death.
Here ya go (From the WH front page). An opportunity to pepper the WH with questions they dare not answer:
“Ask the White House
Discuss the Economy
Join Keith Hennessey, Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council, today at 1:00 PM to discuss the economy. Submit a Question”
http://www.whitehouse.gov/ask/question.html
180 Death by Thetans?
The government will not allow GM to fail/go bankrupt. Can you imagine the backlash if the gov’t allowed GM to fail? I can’t think of a better representation of “Main Street” than General Motors. The gov’t “bailed out” Wall Street. They will bail out “Main Street” if they have to.
To Yikes, 152.
You are on the right track here. In your case it would be best to get two weapons in the same caliber and from the same family of weapons systems. For example, two Sig-Sauers or two Glocks. That way you can become familiar with them and they will have a similiar feel of the trigger pull, magazine removal, etc.
By having the same caliber you only need to stockpile one type of bullet. Again, good just in case one weapon breaks, etc. You mention the Glock and that is an accurate, reliable weapon. You could get a full size and a compact from Glock that would function in a similiar manner.
To Anarchy1, 165.
I’m not happy with this fall but it looks like we are all along for the ride. Not much can be done on our part right now. This is an overall confidence issue in the market by the general public.
#182 – It was Isaac Hayes. I believe he had cancer.
Come on John. At least pick something hard.
#111
“Tosh, realize that the conforming loan limit (aka Jumbo) is no longer $417k in New Jersey, but $729,750 for most of our area.
Frankly, I don’t think a 9 handle attached to a $700k loan is terribly out of line, given the situation.
Likewise, the ability to borrow at amounts approaching $700,000 at 6.25%? That just doesn’t scream credit crisis and a seizure of the mortgage market to me.”
**********
saving cash to pick up Kelly at the foreclosure sale
#111
“DO you think Joe Sixpack knows what’s going on yet?
Suzie sixpack definitely knows – they cut into Regis (and interview with Russell Crowe!!) to the stock market’s opening for at least 4 mins”
*********
saving cash to pick up Kelly at the foreclosure sale
MS drop to sub-$10.
“The government will not allow GM to fail/go bankrupt. Can you imagine the backlash if the gov’t allowed GM to fail? ”
What was the statement the former GM Chairman made, I think it was in the 1950s, something like: “What is good for GM is good for the nation. As goes GM, so goes the nation.”
so is BRK.A a bargain at 108K?
sl
SKep 189,
There is a difference between knowing what happened and understanding its significance (or lack there of)
Suzie and Joe generally do not understand the significance even though they do seem to feel that something is amiss. Heck the government is still saying we are not in a recession, “but may enter one in the spring”
“What was the statement the former GM Chairman made, I think it was in the 1950s”
shore,
Kind of ironic. We are back to the 50’s, GM’s stock price.
More trivia,
Tinkers to Evers to Chance, is the most famous 6-4-3 (shortstop, 2nd base, 1st base) double play combo in baseball history. Who played 3rd base?
Suzie sixpack definitely knows – they cut into Regis (and interview with Russell Crowe!!) to the stock market’s opening for at least 4 mins”
Well, Suzie Sixpack and Jane Main Street are in some ways more important than their husbands Joe. Suzie and Jane are the ones who typically do the shopping for food, clothing, etc. They are also the ones who can tell Joe, “No way you are spending bucks on a snow mobile, boat, huge TV.”
kettle [193],
Getting thirsty?
John,
Counterparty risk is the x-factor in this credit crisis. A regulated clearing counterparty would solve some of the OTC derivative issues. Just like w/ LTCM, the tails of derivative exposures are certainly fatter than are being evaluated by most risk depts. Most banks and b/d’s are only using 2 or 3 std. deviations to measure there risk. I couldn’t guess how many std deviations we are seeing in this current scenario and across all markets. Massive deleveraging.
Last week someone here mentioned Emigrant’s new online savings bank, DollarSavingsDirect. Was 3.75% a couple of days ago, but went up to 4.00% after the fed cut 50 bps. I know the rate can change anytime as with most money markets, but it doesn’t seem too bad right now.
Al Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Why would you want 2 handguns??? Doesn’t make sense – to have to rtools which do the same job. Buy one handgun and one medium caliber Hunting rifle (Enough stopping power for dear hunting) :)
one for me, one for the wife. this hunting rifle sounds interesting, though.
Anyone discussing NJ RE today? I already have a weapons cache and you can find tons of info on firearms all over the internet, but not a lot of credible RE info. BTW:Arm everyone who is capable in your household and get the proper training first (pre purchase).
Back to RE: I still have my questions on post #22 and I would also like to find out how to locate a good sellers agent, someone who will work hard for me in this buyers market.
Thanks.
Steinfeldt?
How is stock market different from Chain Marketing… I mean Amway kind of stuff…
“Steinfeldt?’
shore,
Google?
To roll-over the CD or not to roll-over the CD. Most people say roll it over which tells me to liquidate as soon as I can.
Comrade Nom,
So Amtrak is the way to go out of Princeton? Just checked the schedule. So the only option is Trenton to NYC? What % do you think is ontime?
Harry Steinfeldt! very good shore, I knew this because there was an old sports trivia book entitled “Who is Harry Steinfeldt”?
I am not saying GM can’t go bankrupt. I am saying it needs to be kept afloat long enought to let CDSs undwind and more banks and BDs to delverage in an orderly manner. If GM goes under and it drags numerous other banks and broker dealers under along with Chrysler and Ford you will be adding one million people to the unemployment line by Christmas. All GM really needs is for the US to get them the 25 Billion loan a little quicker and for the US Govt to do something like a 24 month period where car loans on Big 3 American Cars are tax deductable (If Chrysler gets rid of Benz Share) and a $1,000 tax credit. Toyota has had their business propped up for years by the Japanese Govt giving free medical to their workers and Japan artificially manipulating their currency. For the folks over 70 who remember GM, Ford and Chrysler providing the trucks, jeeps and tanks from WWII the thought of Japan and Germany our two former enemies controlling that is scary. I guess we could sieze the Camry factory down South and attack with a hybrid camry.
Shore Guy Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 11:04 am
“The government will not allow GM to fail/go bankrupt. Can you imagine the backlash if the gov’t allowed GM to fail? ”
What was the statement the former GM Chairman made, I think it was in the 1950s, something like: “What is good for GM is good for the nation. As goes GM, so goes the nation.”
Shore 170 – There are no transfers in Long Branch on the NE Corridor. That’s for the southern end of the NJ Coast Line.
Still a long haul though from Princeton Junction to NYC. My SIL refused to do it more than twice a week when she had to go downtown for Dow Jones. She said her door to door was 2 hrs.
I think Joe and Suzie Sixpack are aware of what is happening. There have been rolling bank runs at Indymac, WaMu and Wachovia already. Retail spending is way off. Regular people have already seen their HELOCs cut and credit cards. Their hours at work are getting reduced and threats of layoffs are everywhere, even within super-safe areas like state gov’t and academia. The Sixpacks may not know what LIBOR is, but they are seeing the effects and I think the level of fear is growing rapidly.
BC
“Thirsty”
?????????????????
—————————————
I see that the politicians have firm understandinf of the issue at hand
“Consumers have cut back sharply on spending, in what will be the first quarterly decline in 17 years when the government tally is in for the third quarter.”
“To offset this shrinkage, the Democratic leadership in Congress is “seriously considering” a large fiscal stimulus proposal, which would send a significant amount of money to states and cities. “We have to prop up consumption,” Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview.”
(sarcasm off)
#187 Tosh – Okay, what television character threw a costume party and told everyone to come as their favorite 14th century Italian philosopher?
On the RE front, the two major issues are financing and employment. Still unclear to me to what extent and the means by which RE financing remains so loose. Would be curious to hear the professionals in the industry comment on current downpayment requirements in particular, since this is the major stumbling block for fist time buyers. The other stumbling block it seems to me is fear of layoffs, esp in the tri-state area. Houses need to overshoot on the downside I think to give people a sense of urgency to buy even if they think their employment is not 100% secure
Skeptic 210
I agree more or less. The difference is that they do not see issue such as the danger to the US dollar or any other number of issues we debate
American car manufacturers,
Problem is even if the govt supported and incentivized buy American, GM & Ford production is now out of synch w/ the market. Nobody wants to buy that inventory of SUV’s. They were too arrogant pushing higher margin low efficiency vehicles. It’s like the problem w/ subprime mortgage paper. Little buyers so they can’t clear inventory. They need gas prices to stay low to clear the inventory. Of course, that is if consumer sentiment is not already too anti-SUV.
Still a long haul though from Princeton Junction to NYC. My SIL refused to do it more than twice a week when she had to go downtown for Dow Jones. She said her door to door was 2 hrs.
I’m in midtown so it’s ride from house + train ride + 10 min subway ride + 3 min walk. I could live with a 1 hour train ride for affordability reasons.
Gator,
As usual, I stand corrected. I was indeed thinking Jersey Coast Line. For three seasons, that transfer is not bad. In winter, or rain, even, it su-cks.
Dollar collapse is an interesting debate, but I do not think there is any meaningful way to prepare for this since the effects would be so severe. So practically, I do not think it really matters whether the average man on the street is aware of this possibility
Yikes (200) –
I would say that you probably want at least one sidearm, a close range defender weapon (preferably shotgun), and a long range weapon in case you need to move around.
better to be safe than sorry.
although, i’m probably not one to talk, multiple HK USPs and a franchi .. always good to have around.
Has anyone seen Paulson’s new thought of having the government invest in banks now?? Hoping to free up liquidity, but If I were to invest in something that I personally insure (FDIC insures bank deposits), then, when things go bad, I could just bail out and cash in my insurance policy. This is what happened with all of the “short sellers” on the mortgages. They bought garbage mortgages, insured them, and prayed for catastrophic failure. They got it all right, and then the major insurer, AIG, went belly up. It just seems like a huge conflict of interest….What do you think?
http://www.jokingright.blogspot.com
You can get a Ruger Carbine and Pistol using same caliber ammo. In my case .44 mag.
Hey, I was on CNBC in the background @ around 10!
And you don’t at all feel dirty?
so I went and got about $100 worth of canned goods last night. made me feel that we can deal with a period of a few weeks without a functioning economy. Beyond this, I can’t really see what can be done that would have any real value. If things collapse beyond that level I think it would be a total free for all no amount of planning would help.
Until our politicians understand the problem with this statement there will be no real solution.
“We have to prop up consumption,” Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview.”
I can’t stop looking at financial information.
Its worse then a car wreck on the side of the road that you slow down to watch.
I haven’t done anything productive all morning.
#221 – And you don’t at all feel dirty?
No more than usual.
Can’t wait to see Bush on TV, next to the fireplace, blanket across his lap, telling us that all is good and to just keep spending.
Good god, please, just keep spending. Go out and do your patriotic duty… Shop!
Now that MS is toast and only GS left. What does that mean?
There are people that believe “everything happens for a reason”
I have extra food and water. I can’t imagine having a gun in the house because it would make me uncomfortable. ( I think people should have a right to legally own guns.) I could have a “go bag.” but I have no place to go.
I did, however, ask my husband if he would consider becoming Amish. They are prepared!!
“We have to prop up consumption,” Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass.,”
Total buffoon.
Where did leverage, debt and consumption get us? Try building up savings, eliminate our current account defecit and become the world’s largest creditor again. This is the only means to a sustainable recovery. You can’t bury debt with more debt.
Barney, shadow banking is kaput. Get used to it.
Where did leverage, debt and consumption get us? Try building up savings, eliminate our current account defecit and become the world’s largest creditor again. This is the only means to a sustainable recovery. You can’t bury debt with more debt.
Barney, shadow banking is kaput. Get used to it.
AMEN!
What is so unreal about all this is that the financial experts on CNBC keep asking traders what needs to happen to restore confidence back in the market so investors become buyers again. They’re ignoring the fact that consumers are tapped out and even if business like GM could borrow, who would they sell their junk to? A huge segment of the American public will be either paying off or walking away from debt that has no underlying asset that it will be decades before they see daylight again. There are so many porblems upon problems layered like a five story sh*t wedding cake that government intervention is almost a joke. We either let the cards fall where they may or turn into a Soviet demand economy. And remember, buy on the dips!
If the rate of descent doesn’t slow here pretty soon we are looking at 7400 to end the day.
what do we have to hit to trigger a circuit breaker?
I paid off the remainder of my non-home loans last month. I know several other people who did the same thing going back to July of this year.
I think there is a massive deleveraging going on in consumerville that the bankers and politicians are ignoring.
“Hmm the banks are having a liquidity crisis? Let me help by giving this money back that I borrowed”
That mentality is probably killing the banks more then you know because returning the money doesn’t help the banks because an equal amount of deposits somewhere are dissapearing. In addition the expected revenue stream from the interest on those loans is dissapearing.
We are seeing a collapse of faith in financial institutions. Sooner or later, we will see a massive wave of inflation and a similar collapse of faith in paper currencies. Then, gold, the ultimate currency, will have its day in the sun.
At present, gold is being pushed and pulled in two directions. First, the threat of recession, and even of depression, is exerting major downward pressure. But, at the same time, the fear of a financial meltdown is pushing it up. As a result, Gold is essentially hovering, but is showing a slight upward trend.
It is likely that the massive actions taken this week by the Fed, Treasury, and central banks the world over will lessen today’s panic. At the same time, as recession deepens there will be increasing demands for cash. In common with most commodities, gold may experience temporary erosion of price; at worst down to $600 an ounce.
However, inflation and a progressive erosion of faith in paper money will push gold into a relatively new, but historic role as the ultimate money. This has not happened in sophisticated economies since the 1930’s. When it finally occurs, look for an explosion in the price.
Conservative investors should maintain a core holding of hard currency treasury bonds and gold. In addition, they should accumulate further gold holdings on major recession-induced price dips and await, with some sense of comfort, the ultimate collapse of paper currencies.
e-mail from EuroPac
Come to think of it,
good, on-time paying people paying off thier loans only leaves the banks holding crap-tastic loans with no deposits.
Subprime is contained!
Soft landing!
“what do we have to hit to trigger a circuit breaker?”
Delve into Bi’s blackbox.
came across this recently. Interesting
http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2007/12/kondratieff-winter.html
Kondratieff Winter
The Kondratieff Cycle is a theory based on Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev’s study of nineteenth century price behavior. Nikolai was convinced that his studies of economic, social, and cultural life proved that a long-term order of economic behavior existed and could be used for the purpose of anticipating future economic developments.
Kondratiev observed certain characteristics about the growth and contraction phases of the long wave and among them, he detailed the number of years that the economy expanded and contracted during each part of the half-century long cycle.
The fifty to sixty year cycles go through four distinct phases: beneficial inflation (spring), stagflation (summer), beneficial deflation (autumn), and deflation (winter). Since, the last Kondratieff cycle ended around 1949, we have seen beneficial inflation 1949-1966, stagflation 1966-1982, beneficial deflation 1982-2000 and according to Kondratieff theory, we should now be in the (winter) deflation cycle which leads to a depression.
The head of Iceland’s central bank has been ordered by his doctor to get some bed rest. Apparently he’s on the verge of a nervous breakdown. Seems one UK village sent millions of taxpayer pounds to Icelandic banks on the advice of a financial adviser who thought it would be a good idea to diversify. It’s started a row between Gordon Brown and Iceland’s Prime Minister. Gordon wants his money back and Iceland won’t return it.
Make,
You remind me of those commercials where that woman gets up and says “Have you ever considered investing in G O L D?” as she stands in front of a pile of shiny stuff.
She trys to make the gold all sexxy and stuff while the camera goes to a soft lense that overexposes light making the gold sparkle.
What recession? hotel rooms in Atlantic City next Saturday night are SOLD OUT in some places and $350+ in every casino.
This new high-end hotel on the boardwalk called Chelsea Hotel is $459 on Saturday night. doesn’t even have a casino!!!
me? i’ll pass and stay at the $99 chain hotels just outside of town. even with the dollar soon to be relieved of it’s duties, i can’t bring myself to splurge. it’s not in my blood!!!!
#233 – ket – what do we have to hit to trigger a circuit breaker?
7712-ish.
I know we’ve discussed it before, but other than a pawn shop, what is a good place to buy physical gold?
my family has plenty (relative had a jewelry business for at least 25 years), but they are several states away.
silly to ask, but is $5,000 cash going to buy me a sufficient amount of gold?
What recession? hotel rooms in Atlantic City next Saturday night are SOLD OUT in some places and $350+ in every casino.
Find this hard to believe. Was at Borgata last weekend. They had plenty of $10 blackjack tables on a saturday night, which was rare. table jockeys were saying that business had slowed considerably.
they are giving away free rooms, though.
Is BOA still paying $31 for Merrill:)
I’m thinking about picking up some shares of Countrywide Financial. What do you all think?
Nick,
I sit where I stand. However, If O brings in Volcker, I’ll join BC Bob in waving the US flag down Broadway.
Capish.
If you think that part of this free fall happening now is the market reacting to O, barney, pelosi and Dodd fixing the consumption problem by taxing everyone who has money and giving it to the people who don’t you’re sadly mistaken.
“Crisis in confidence” is really related to our gov’t and it’s currency.
silly to ask, but is $5,000 cash going to buy me a sufficient amount of gold?
5 ounces!
easy answers to silly questions
make, yikes,
But buy in 1/10 oz coins…..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/meltdown_bush
Bush said he understood how Americans could be concerned about their economic future. “That anxiety can feed anxiety and that can make it hard to see all that’s being done to solve the problem,” he said.
Or perhaps people can see what’s being done to “solve the problem” and that is creating the anxiety . . .
BC Bob,
ETA is 5:30pm sharp
BC,
“CNBC has some preliminary news, prior to the official word at 2pm. According to Erin Burnett, “Indications are that people who sold protection on Lehman Brothers going bankrupt may lose 91.25%…[and] will get less than a dime on the dollar.” Mark Haines adds: “sounds like bad news.””
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/10/about-those-lehman-brothers-cr.php
I’m thinking about picking up some shares of Countrywide Financial. What do you all think?
Brave. Short BofA while your at it.
its just a matter of time for Atlantic City.
has not caught up to them yet.
most of the people are morons who pay
450 per night for those dumps. except to
harrahs and borgata .
they are fighting a losing battle ,, wait till the numbers come out.
some of the gambling stocks may go to zero.
kett – good idea.
Where besides a pawn shop?
John (154)-
So a bunch of crappy cars can bring down the world financial system?
Great.
plume (168)-
“Maybe we should have and market a Piehole Indicator, and an Ultrashort PieHole Fund, with shorts and puts timed for press conferences.”
Consider this post my application to be the fund manager.
224.
I was watching CNBC at about that time and the dolt reporter was so obviously pushing herself into the trading floor crowd even though the camera was back just far enough for the viewer to see that there was plenty of room to her right, lol. Had to get “the shot.” Twinkie.
plume (175)-
“I wonder what the new national anthem will be?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl6NfQyNLto
We’ll be seeing a lot more of this.
TRENTON — A new property tax cap aimed at protecting New Jersey property owners from ballooning municipal property taxes hasn’t stopped towns from requesting — and getting — waivers from a state board to exceed the limits.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20081010/NEWS01/810100357/-1/newsfront2
From Bloomberg:
Capital One Ends Financing of N.Y., N.J. Car Dealers
Capital One Financial Corp., the lender that raised $200 million last month to cover future losses, will end financing of auto dealers’ inventories in New Jersey and New York by the end of this month, a spokesman said.
Capital One will keep financing dealers in Louisiana and Texas, where it also has banking offices, said spokesman Steven Thorpe in an interview. “It was a very difficult decision for us to make, but after weighing various factors we believe it was the right decision,” he said. McLean, Virginia-based Capital One notified in August about 20 dealers who will be affected.
The decision will put pressure on new-car dealerships with the National Automobile Dealers Association already expecting as many as 600 to close or combine with other dealers this year. That would be almost 40 percent higher than last year, according to Paul Taylor, an economist at NADA.
“It’s a defining moment when Capital One gives up the ghost,” said Sheldon Sandler, chief executive officer of Bel Air Partners in Skillman, New Jersey, which advises the automotive retail industry. “Banks are seeing the bottom fall out of the dealership business and they don’t want to be caught sitting there owning a bunch of Chevys, instead of getting cash.”
It looks like the state of MD is putting plans in place for unpaid vacation time for state employees.
They are calling it a “furlough” but in reality is is a “mini-layoff”.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/10/ap5535936.html
“Some of the larger budget cuts on the list, including six-day furloughs for state employees, which would save $48 million, won’t be acted on at Wednesday’s Board of Public Works meeting, but could be considered later after discussions with labor officials.
O’Malley said he didn’t know when furloughs could kick in but that the sooner they’re done, the longer period of time the state can stretch out the days, so that all six would not have to be used in one month.
“So, the sooner we do it – the more that we’re able to spread that pain,” O’Malley said.”
Lehman CDS settlement looking brutal, prelim auction results set a CDS value of 9.75 cents on the dollar.
TED goes to 462bp.
252…just think you can bargain with the grocer and shave off a bit of the nugget for a dozen eggs.
I am beginning to wonder about some of the mouth breathers on this site.
“Capital One Ends Financing of N.Y., N.J. Car Dealers”
What’s,(What’s not) in your wallet?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1alQx-Mgq1s&feature=related
142 sl, just saw your post. It’s ugly, but thanks to your prompting, actually, I have a new doc and I’m pumped up on augmentin and tetanus shot. Nothing like finding docs on google maps and then picking the first one who can take you within one hour.
This guy is great. Filled waiting room, no walk-ins, but he keeps several morning spots for emergency stuff. I’m proud of my hand – it was interesting enough that he went and got his new intern student to look at it. ;)
BC,
I jumped into the used car market much too early, doh! Should have held out a bit.
Oh, and all of his assistants and techs were talking the stock market. No TV there, but they were doing minute-by-minute.
Pisani reporting SEC may institute individual stock circuit breakers.
They’re still making me get in line at BMW for a Clubman. Damnit, these things never go my way.
Well I haven’t signed any papers yet. I’ll probably hold out.
speaking of gold, any of you prospectors buying up this and that on ebay? I wonder if the getting is cheap or if that’s already been tapped.
whts up with Gold? Crashing right now, forced unwinding to meet margin calls?
so is that Lehman brothers auction info baked in to the #s now or will the final report be a hammer?
kneel before zod.
I think the banter here would be more on topic if there was some way to day trade houses..
John – where can one find brand new ‘Vettes for $15k?
Sounds like a fun way to spend my SKF profits.
wort week ever – I lost half of my net worth and still have my wife!
worst week ever – I lost half of my net worth and still have my wife!
[208] hard
Amtrak hardly ever stops in Princeton (and may not anymore) but it uses the same corridor so you get a sense of performance issues. Amtrak performance on the corridor degrades as the day goes on, so it is better to get out earlier (if you are taking Amtrak)
NJT seems to run well on the corridor b/c they use a different track and don’t get hung up elsewhere.
For regular commuting from that area, you are limited to NJT due to access and cost. Amtrak is prohibitely expensive for monthlies (Amtrak doesn’t like monthlies and is trying to squeeze them out). Percentage is probably good, at least to Newark. I only hear of Amtrak trains running into delays regularly, and NJT has separate tracks. Once you get past Newark, it is different and in the Penn-NWK stretch is where NJT seems to get bogged down frequently.
277
If I grow my goatee back, and slick my hair, I look like Zod.
278….horse………..dead…………
283…I am actually growing mine as we speak…hair growth is the only recreational activity that I can afford to do these days.
When GM goes under, of course if that happens your neighbors would be in front of your houses with torches when you pull up in your new Vette.
Nurburgringer Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
John – where can one find brand new ‘Vettes for $15k?
Sounds like a fun way to spend my SKF profits.
Why is NCC in free fall today and even more interesting SOV is going up? Did the buyer of NCC smell the poop and move on to the next troubled bank?
#248 Yikes:What recession? hotel rooms in Atlantic City next Saturday night are SOLD OUT in some places and $350+ in every casino.
And you can bet that most of those who booked rooms are the least able to afford it.
This is who i am voting for in Nov
http://www.zod2008.com/
wow.. the flight to risk-aversion strategies is unbelievable..
EUR/USD at 1.3396 and still falling like a brick.
Pat [crap, I forgot what number]
Great! Remember — keep elevated as much as humanly possible… uh. well. except when typing! :)
sl
50% of the US population do not own stocks. Of the other 50% about half are properly diversified. I guess that 75% would rather lose their money in AC.
Things are so bad I may pay off my mortgage!
Barb (273)-
“They’re still making me get in line at BMW for a Clubman.”
Buy that car, you should be clubbed over the head.
vic (275)-
Cascading margin calls.
grim (278)-
May I direct you to the CME…
7000, here we come
sl
Intervention, bailing, propping, press conferences, short term band aids, manipulation, coordinated stroke jobs, etc.., never work. The world has been drunk since Nasquack, now the piper wants his due.
The market is forward looking, anticipatory. What is Mr Market trying to tell us, regarding the economy, going forward?
How do you spell “toast”:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:MS
Send lawyers, guns and money…
sl (296) –
probably more like 6000 ;)
Things are so bad I may pay off my mortgage!
I’ve said it before, debt service might very well be the next bubble.
Anybody see this re Goldman?
Goldman’s outlook revised to negative by Moody’s
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081010/goldman_sachs_ratings.html
Back under 8K, I think when the Lehman announcement comes, we could head for an ugly close. I can’t see anyone holding positions over the weekend.
I’m not paying down debt until they shoot at least another trillion-buck bazooka shell over and above what’s been promised already.
“50% of the US population do not own stocks.”
John,
Much worse than that, 70% are home “owners”. At least with the stock market, you have a sheriff, margin clerk. In addition to this, you have to put up capital to roll the dice, stocks. Leverage in RE, over the past few years? You can’t get that anywhere on the street.
It’s gonna be a long walk home.
Oblivion is nigh.
BC (305)-
Can’t walk home at all when you’ve been blasted into outer space.
“How do you spell “toast”:”
Clot,
EP screams “trademark infringement.”
SRS rocketing higher…on low volume.
Weird.
Lehman Aftershocks
Posted by Equity Private, Oct 10, 2008, 1:21pm
It looks like $5 billion of Lehman bonds priced at around $0.0975 in the fire sale auction today. That is somewhat dire for anyone who wrote credit default swaps for Lehman and now has to cover the difference, or $0.9025 on the dollar. The Street Sweety had it essentially right earlier (I know, hard to believe).
The price isn’t official until 2pm, but it is hard to imagine it will change all that much between now and then.
Bloomberg is quoting someone who thinks this means about $270 billion in payouts from CDS writers is now due. Obviously, that’s going to require some asset dumping to raise cash. Possibly, that will sink a few firms in the weeks to come.
Ouch.
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/10/lehman-aftershocks.php
Just had a homeowner call me to ask what the problem is with MBS, when 90% of the folks out there are paying their mortgage.
This is a 45 y/o “professional”. I just explained the concept of leverage to him, and I guarantee he couldn’t explain it back to me right now if his life depended on it.
He did, however, tell me that he’s not going to give his house away.
I told him that it’s ok. At this pace, his lender will take it away.
“$0.0975”
Why do I have flashbacks regarding dot com?
CiFI,
Albani here. You said something yesterday about not wanting to be short anymore.
“$0.0975″
Not to worry Hank will pick up the rest and make everyone whole. After all he’s got two bazookas now.
He’s smarter now and will not speak until after the market closes.
Hearing the results were closer to 8 than 10
The stocks to best hold value so far that were in my portfolio….. Water stocks
$.08625
Cover up folks.
U.S. Exchanges Said to Seek Targeted Prohibition on Short Sales
By Edgar Ortega and Jesse Westbrook
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stock exchanges may seek to impose a temporary ban on short sales for individual stocks that plunge as regulators seek to rein in short-selling.
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market may file their proposal with the Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as today, said three people who have seen a draft of the rule. Under the plan, a stock that closes down more than 20 percent would be protected from short sellers for the following three days, the people said.
NYSE Euronext Chief Executive Officer Duncan Niederauer and Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld have met with SEC officials in the past month to discuss the proposal. A final rule might change as regulators weigh other alternatives. The so-called circuit breaker against betting a stock will decline would add to rules the SEC imposed since September to restrict speculators who may have exacerbated the plunge in stock prices.
“I can appreciate the regulators trying to support the markets,” said Ron Geffner, a former SEC lawyer who now represents hedge funds at the New York-based law firm Sadis & Goldberg LLP. “I am surprised after several iterations with little to no benefit that they continue to go back to the same dry well. It’s hard to play a game when the rules change week to week. This is just another reason for people to stay on the sidelines.”
John Nester, a spokesman for the SEC, declined to comment. Bethany Sherman, a spokeswoman for Nasdaq, and Scott Peterson, a spokesman for NYSE Regulation, declined to comment.
Under the proposal, the targeted rule would be in effect through Dec. 31, the people said. Market makers and some option traders would be exempt from the ban under the proposal, the people said.
Uh…the clubman…is not a BMW.
Sorry.
“I’ve been drunk, but never two nights in a row.”
T. Boone Pickens
sean (317)-
Here we go again. NYSE and the SEC feeding the cancer.
I’m covering toward the end today. No more playing a game that changes every week.
so rediculous, how can they continually change the rules of the game and expect people to play??
Sometimes I wish they had a circuit breaker on home prices when they were on their way UP!
“Oh, sorry sir, your home has exceeded the maximum allowed limit for sale in this county. You can’t sell your home for 3 months now”
I don’t get it. I take a loss on my mutual funds, a loss on my stocks, a loss in my 401k (paper) and still can’t afford a home in Franklin Park, North Brunswick, or Piscataway. Who are you guys bidding 500+ on homes that are clearly not worth it?
Rough week in the financial markets. I just went to my pricing source for my local real estate market (GSMLS). Whew, at least real estate prices aren’t falling.
/sarcasm off.
Clotpoll Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
How do you spell “toast”:
MBS-CDS is how how you spell toast.
AG, 2002
“As the market for credit default swaps expands and deepens, the collective knowledge held by market participants is exactly reflected in the prices of these derivative instruments. They offer significant supplementary information about credit risk to a bank’s loan officer, for example, who heretofore had to rely mainly on in-house credit analysis. To be sure, loan officers have always looked to the market prices of the stocks and bonds of a potential borrower for guidance, but none directly answered the key question for any prospective loan: What is the probable net loss in a given time frame? Credit default swaps, of course, do just that and presumably in the process embody all relevant market prices of the financial instruments issued by potential borrowers.”
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Speeches/2002/20021119/default.htm
Clot [320],
If you ring the register, they can’t take it back.
on the plus side, gay marriage is now legal in CT, so we can now offer an additional way for rich gays to lose half their stuff besides investing in hedge funds.
Ukraine’s “liquid currency” is
HomeMade Vodka
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45daYdaMmCQ&feature=user
[299]
I may have to organize a “lawyers, guns, and money” road trip.
[289]
Told you, Kettle, there is a place for you in my administration. How’s Secretary of Defense sound? Or you you prefer Energy.
Heck, in the Zod/NJGator administration, I will merge these agencies as it will become necessary to use the DoD to procure Eng.
Kneel before President Zod
Clot – Flat On A Failure and this is the 3rd flat in a few months.
CND (329) –
You mean we don’t use the DoD to secure Energy already? ;)
it’s 3 pm. downtime?
crazy man,
hit the nail on the head. that is not a politically loaded statement as well. ;)
I hadn’t used Zillow in a while and with a little downtime, I plugged in some addresses and i think we are showing 2003 prices according to zillow.
Zillow is the closest thing we have to a real time pricing system.
Zillow –
Now I remember why I don’t use zillow that often. Algorithm needs work. Just plugged in another address. Looks like lack of comps probably throws off Zestimate. Zestimate shows $815k. House listed over 1 year and now ask is $675k.
In this environment, they would be lucky to get a mid 500 offer.
Who said the consumer is dead?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aiARTIbaqREQ&refer=us
Comrade Zod 329
Your humble servant kettle enthusiastically accepts the position in pursuit of global domination in your honor.
We shall crush those who stand in the way and use their cold lifeless corpse as a stepping stone to ever greater heights
Here come the weekend warriors. Shouldn’t they be on a beach, Fri afternoon, in the Caribbean?
Here come the weekend warriors. Shouldn’t they be on a beach, Fri afternoon, in the Caribbean?
BC,
PPT is back in action. Printing has been cracked up a notch.
Rev it up, they are going full tilt;
FNM 0.98, -0.03, -3.1%) said Friday it will stop collecting the principal and interest payments on loans from institutions servicing its mortgage-backed securities in a bid to free up additional liquidity for these institutions. The move comes in line with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s new policy which effectively safeguards these principal and interest payments.
make,
I heard cargo planes were landing in the Caribbean, full of printing presses. They have rounded up all the natives, 24/7.
Albani: My opnion is that no trading should be done in this environment. You shouldn’t be short and you should own shiny stuff. If you want to take the 21 hour view, OK I was 1 for 2. Gold got thrashed. That is irrelevant. At any point in time, the government may step in and nuke your a%%. Don’t mess around here. Are we going flat? You see…..
you should NOT own shiny stuff
And we are green!!!!
Well done Shorties!
BC, #340
I saw that, but what does it mean?
Who are the “institutions” – major banks?
“Gold got thrashed.”
Chi,
Please don’t get me going. Gold finished the week higher. How did the spread perform?
BC Bob Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
“Gold got thrashed.”Chi,Please don’t get me going. Gold finished the week higher. How did the spread perform?
Bost: stop taking me out of context….read the comments…
I am observing a weird thing. Gold is going down, but the calls are going up.
BC – What do you make of this? Looks like GLD will make a major move up.
scribe [345],
The institutions that it guarantees, the whole spectrum. Have to find more info.
Does this mean that all mortgage holders can also suspend payments? One step further, can renters also suspend payments? Give everybody a holiday.
Re#346 – BC Bob It’s always good to have an opposing opinion. So far chicagofinance has failed to convince me and others that the gold play is not a good one in this market.
I almost miss 50/50 and who can forget that infamous $40 oil call from bi.
Vic: Implied vol is up….
vic,
Keep your eye on the options. Also, there has been a major disconnect between the physical market and the futures, paper.
Sean Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Re#346 – BC Bob It’s always good to have an opposing opinion. So far chicagofinance has failed to convince me and others that the gold play is not a good one in this market.
Sean: I don’t care what you do…and I am not trying to convince anyone else of anything….have fun……….
Victorian Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
I am observing a weird thing. Gold is going down, but the calls are going up.
BC – What do you make of this? Looks like GLD will make a major move up.
Vic: If you see this result and draw that conclusion, you may not fully understand the risk profile of what you are viewing…..
I’m getting a headache… up, down, up down… ugh.
sl
“Bost: stop taking me out of context….read the comments…”
Chi,
I read; “you should not own the shiny stuff”. I own it. Disclaimer, I’m hedged.
Also, I am going home long calls, stocks. Wasted permium?
Chi Fi,
Don’t get your feelings hurt here. I agree with you not to short these waters but I will not sell my physical stuff until at least 2012.
I am having fun.
that’s premium.
Also, I am going home long calls, stocks. Wasted permium?
Not at all. There is a fed ppt nuclear bomb coming and they’re trying to name it G7!
Vic: simplified example, but note that the call is a derived from underlying price and vol…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes#The_Equation
Covered and out. Time to search for physical gold. Let the hacks and the ppt fight over crumbs.
The whole shooting match is dead man walking now. Will be for years.
I’m not coming back til PG, MCD, JNJ, KO appear to be a theft-like prices.
The wait list to get a parking spot at Princeton Junction is several years long, or so I hear.
If you are looking to live along the NE Corridor, you may want to look at somewhere within a few minutes of the Hamilton Station. There is currently a wait list of a few months, but daily parking is readily available. Lawrenceville is a decent town nearby.
make money Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Chi Fi, Don’t get your feelings hurt here. I agree with you not to short these waters but I will not sell my physical stuff until at least 2012. I am having fun.
albani: I have to watch my son from 7-9PM solo. I so much want to drink an entire bottle of Laphroaig, but I have to wait 5 hours. I am going to die.
PPT are you down with ME!!!
(364)-
Behold, a master of the universe…crying for the deus ex machina.
Chi(354) –
“Vic: If you see this result and draw that conclusion, you may not fully understand the risk profile of what you are viewing….”
Absolutely, I cannot make sense of it. I have a very very small position in GLD. I know that you do not make calls over here, and I understand it.
What are the factors which influence this sort of activity? This is completely out of curiosity, I do not intend to act on this. At this point, this market is too crazy to make any sane decisions. This is more like predicting what tools will Paulson use and their effectiveness.
Oops. chifi. just saw your reply, thanks!
Who’s down with ppt?
Who’s down with ppt?
Everybody!
Why is it that the ppt seems to be telegraphing their actions these days? Hmm!
MLS 2588570
Interesting pricing strategy…
Clot (361)-
“Covered and out.”
– Same here. It was fun while it lasted. Great learning experience. Now, I have to learn how to go long :).
BC – I am long for the weekend too, albeit – very small positions.
With this market one minute I feel ready to capitulate and the next minute I want to fornicate!
Is MS burned beyond recognition?
GM stuck plummits today as Capital One Ends Financing of N.J. Car Dealers. Sales of White Caddies and Black Esclades are expected to crash.
# John Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
With this market one minute I feel ready to capitulate and the next minute I want to fornicate!
John, just become a submissive and save yourself the mood swings.
vic,
I just have calls and call spreads. Not looking for marriage, just a fling.
ding ding ding, mutual fund redemptions and we are down again.
Sales of White Caddies and Black Esclades are expected to crash.
You mean they haven’t already?
If the market is up on Monday, I guarantee Bi shows up and tells us he got long today.
Impressive short covering rally.
Market Crisis of 2008
On 06 October 2008, the working group issued a statement indicating that it was taking multiple actions available to it in order to attempt to stabilize the financial system, although purchase of stock shares was not part of the statement.[12] The government may wind up owning shares in the firms it has provided loans to, as they will receive warrants as collateral for these loans.
On the morning of 10 October, 2008, the Dow lost nearly 700 points. This was in contrast to most of the week, during which the market had rallied early only to face a massive sell-off near the closing bell. At 3:00 EST, the market hovered around 8,100, about 500 points off. An abrupt rally occurred without explanation, and the Dow went as high as 8,742.71 before going back into the red. Many experts attributed this abrupt and brief rally to the manipulations of the Working Group.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_12631
I love Wiki!
Chifi,
I just want to say that I distinctly remember your call of 18-24 months ago, where you said the sh*t would not hit the fan until after the 2008 Olympics. Masterful call I must say.
ran out of money at 3:45PM. That was a heck of a rally from 3:00Pm to 3:45PM.
Hank,
Come on baby. Next time print more.
From BP;
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/bank_jamaica.JPG
All I can say is WTF??!!
Man, Putin has the best photo-ops:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jRcfo4IoePVZaViv12nHsKnGP73AD93NJGTG0
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1071392/Macho-Putin-releases-Lets-learn-judo-Vladimir-DVD.html
BC Bob,
Central Bank of Jamaica says “No problem, man.” and passes the PPT a spliff.
hp [385],
Their cb or ppt;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gynPB6QrEDY
Right out of the pages of the NY Times!!!
And look at the date..!!!
September 30, 1999
Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending
In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.
The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets — including the New York metropolitan region — will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.
[Rest of article here.]
Origins: In any crisis, one of the most common reactions is to ponder the question, “How did we get into this mess?” People begin to search for explanations about who was responsible for bringing about the current state of
affairs, who had the ability to head it off (but failed to act or was thwarted), and who foresaw the looming danger (but declined to speak up or was ignored). With the United States currently in the throes of an economic crisis, of which one symptom was the September 2008 government takeover of the foundering Federal National Mortgage Association (commonly known as Fannie Mae), a nine-year-old warning about the home mortgage underwriter’s being vulnerable to economic problems that could require government rescue was bound to pique public interest.
On 30 September 1999, the New York Times published an article entitled “Fannie Mae Eases Credit to Aid Mortgage Lending” by Steven A. Holmes. The complete text of the article is available online, but in a nutshell the Times reported that Fannie Mae was easing its credit requirements for home mortgage loans in response to increasing pressure from a variety of groups:
* Clinton administration officials who wanted Fannie Mae “to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people” (particularly minority groups).
* Stockholders who wanted Fannie Mae “to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.”
* Banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies (from whom Fannie Mae purchases loans) who wanted the company to facilitate “more loans to subprime borrowers.”
In light of recent events, what caught the attention of most readers was a couple of paragraphs in the middle of the article cautioning about the possible consequences of Fannie Mae’s loosening its credit requirements:
In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s.
“From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,” said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.”
Another New York Times article that has attained a significant amount retrospective interest is an 11 September 2003 article entitled “New Agency Proposed to Oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae” by Stephen Labaton, which reported on the efforts of the Bush administration to create a new regulatory agency to assume oversight of those mortgage lenders:
The Bush administration today recommended the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago.
Under the plan, disclosed at a Congressional hearing today, a new agency would be created within the Treasury Department to assume supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that are the two largest players in the mortgage lending industry.
The new agency would have the authority, which now rests with Congress, to set one of the two capital-reserve requirements for the companies. It would exercise authority over any new lines of business. And it would determine whether the two are adequately managing the risks of their ballooning portfolios.
The plan is an acknowledgment by the administration that oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — which together have issued more than $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt — is broken. A report by outside investigators in July concluded that Freddie Mac manipulated its accounting to mislead investors, and critics have said Fannie Mae does not adequately hedge against rising interest rates.
Of especial interest to current readers were the following paragraphs about Congressional resistance to the Bush administration’s regulatory proposal:
Significant details must still be worked out before Congress can approve a bill. Among the groups denouncing the proposal today were the National Association of Home Builders and Congressional Democrats who fear that tighter regulation of the companies could sharply reduce their commitment to financing low-income and affordable housing.
“These two entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — are not facing any kind of financial crisis,” said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. “The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.”
Last updated: 2 October 2008
The URL for this page is http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/easescredit.asp
Urban Legends Reference Pages © 1995-2008 by snopes.com.
This material may not be reproduced without permission.
snopes and the snopes.com logo are registered service marks of snopes.com.
Sources Sources:
Holmes, Steven A. “Fannie Mae Eases Credit to Aid Mortgage Lending.”
The New York Times. 30 September 1999.
Labaton, Stephen. “New Agency Proposed to Oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.”
The New York Times. 11 September 2003.
After a long week, this is how you unwind….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQcNiD0Z3MU&feature=related
Chi,
I owe you a bottle of your fav.
now throw your hands in the air and act like you just don’t care
Capital One Ends Financing of N.Y., N.J. Car Dealers
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajhnxeIudX14&refer=home
In preparation for the coming depression, Stu is watching bad movies in black & white before naptime. Rocky Balboa, anyone?
392…husband and wife blog team….fascinating.
Is there blood on the streets yet?
394/Vinodh
Yes
hahaha.. i love how there are so many more ads for cash4gold now.
so sad.
so it looks like we closed right below the 200 day MA.. there goes that support!
when are we starting a war so we can get everyone off this financial mess? ;)
oh, and i forgot, i just made my popcorn for the announcement for the G7 at 1800..
sucks that the fx market has just closed .. can’t even scalp away!
We are all Bears now since attitudes change first and then price follows, we are now well beyond capitulation and little will change regardless of government intervention in the free markets.
I do expect a turnaround as soon as attitudes change. The only way the markets will start going up requires quite a catharsis, a real cleansing that only a change in leadership can provide.
The upcoming election can provide such a catharsis, saying goodbye to GWB, Klink, Bergabe for example would make the past worries fade eventually and hope will reappear.
It would be good for the USA if folks like Krammer and other talking heads who lead the media arm of this mess leave too. Perhaps a few more level headed “reporters” who spent zero time in the boiler room, and
a few more men and women who report less on hype and more on the fundamentals will help
rebuild trust in the markets which is a necessary ingredient for any kind recovery. Confidence or trust has to be earned and none of the talking heads or elected or selected officials exude any kind of confidence right now.
What a week!
I’m packing up and getting out town for a while. Although planned ahead of time, my departure for Amsterdam could not have been better planned. I’ll have time to sit back over an ale, inhale and really do some deep thinking about the state of my portfolio, the rise of the USD against my foreign currency holdings and drink plenty between thoughts.
I heard this on NPR earlier today: “will NYC reinvent itself after wallstreet?” yet I can’t help to think Paulson has an ace up his sleeve and will redistribute the goods to gang green.
If this is what it took for me NOT to have to see GEd having baby momma rolling around in a C class or three series…. then so be it.
Comrade zieba out. Nom, I’m leaving you in charge of the bunker plans.
399….those ladies worked hard on their backs for those rides…..enjoy your trip….and the fall foliage.
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — Meridian Bank, of Eldred, Illinois, was closed by regulators today, the 15th to fail this year, as amid tightening credit and a deepening housing slump.
Meridian, with $39.1 million in assets and $36.9 million in deposits as of Sept. 25, was shut by the Illinois Department of Financial Professional Regulation, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named receiver. National Bank, of Hillsboro, Illinois, is acquiring the deposits of Meridian. Four of the failed bank’s branches will reopen tomorrow and one will reopen Oct. 14 as branches of National Bank, the FDIC said.
I am no longer scared, I feel the trend has changed. Joe Sixpack and Suzie homemaker are out of the market. Selling at the bottom will really help them get their house underwater.
And yet amid all this turmoilthe sweet colonial across the sreet went under contract at asking price in 2 weeks…it was 990k so not a starter house. Who would be buying that today??
94, barbara:
the talkies are too expensive. (and for us, require walking through some not exactly safe in the dark in hard times areas). i’d bet on netflix, if i were betting. (my disclaimers: um… ex english major. not currently a netflix stock owner, though i am a subscriber.)
ender’s game: loved the first book… felt the series (and the author’s later works in general) faltered a bit. as far as sci fi goes, Bujold is my number one favorite author. (terry pratchett is my number one regardless of genre.)
guns: bah. i have a bow and arrow and know how to use it. ;)… (er, kick him in the knees while he’s doubled over laughing)
re: real estate… friend told me, last month, only 20,000 mortgages were approved in all of uk. did anyone else hear similar?
ask grim for my email about the ny to princeton trip. I do it twice a day, there is a lot of misinformation posted here, but what you need to know is that it sucks. Don’t do it.
I live up by Columbia U and take the 1 to the 2/3 to ny penn then njt to pjunc to princeton and have a 10 min walk. It’s 2 hrs each way. NJT shares the entire NEC portion with Amtrak, who owns the rails. There is a constant pissing match between the two. The trains are crowded and I even go the opposite drection. Parking is a 2-3 yr wait at pjunc, hardly any parking near princeton. The dinky is ridiculously run wth its own sched which often leaves you stuck waiting 20-30 min to go 4 miles. Monthly ticket will cost you $366.
I reiterate, unless you have a compelling reason, don’t consider doing it. Id be more than happy to discuss offline, but i’m just walking home- left my office at 5:50pm and I see 8:02 on my phone.
239, nicholas- back when we had a second mortgage (we were young! we needed the equity!…) we paid it off early. with our visa card. we were so annoyed with the mortgage holder, we figured we’d rather give our credit union the interest than another penny to the bank. knowing that they were expecting that interest for another 20 years just made it all the more sweet. …wonder if they’re still in business. (the primary note holder, btw, was washington mutual. they were probably annoyed we paid it off early, too. hee.)
haven’t watched the video yet, but the comments are riveting reading:
the coming collapse of the middle class, a lecture by Elizabeth Warren
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/04/the-coming-coll.html
(er, did someone else post this yet? sorry if you did)
sweet irony here is how many you complained about price and this and that and houses have dropped and they can drop 50% more and no one here ca still get a mortgage!!!!! NOW THATS COMEDY!!!
“sweet irony here is how many you complained about price and this and that and houses have dropped and they can drop 50% more and no one here ca still get a mortgage!!!!! NOW THATS COMEDY!!!”
[409],
Actually hope rates go up to 10%, blow the doors off the hinges. Those are are long and wrong will be underwater and won’t be able to refinance. Those with cash will swoop it up. Comedy? Happy hour pricing.
One other thought, courtesy of rentingnnj, you can always refinance your mortgage, you can’t refinance your purchase price. Yes, the asset gets obliterated but the debt remains. Comedy? More like a tragedy.
someone with access to njpatient– next time you send him a homing pigeon, please let him know he’s missed. thanks!
“sweet irony here is how many you complained about price and this and that and houses have dropped and they can drop 50% more and no one here ca still get a mortgage!!!!! NOW THATS COMEDY!!!”
You mean it’s going back to the way it used to be? Cool.
You don’t understand this whole bubble/financial crisis thing at all, do you?
Sounds like they are all clueless?
“Text of G-7 plan of action”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/text-g7-plan-action/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA17FACB%2DA411%2D4971%2D91FD%2DC9811C0534DC%7D
As soon as we can? Our bankers are reviewing our no doc loan app. Just wait until they demand payment in some other form of currency/hard asset. You may not want to belive it. It’s coming.
“Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy equity “as soon as we can” in banks and other financial institutions to restore market stability and revive economic growth.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=am3ynGj3_6SI&refer=home
(413) BC “Restore the flow of credit..” Huh? – this state is shut down. Nobody wants to buy anything…on credit?..you’ve got to be joking.
Weren’t they supposed to figure out the Libor problem? Any chance?
(408) alia
Thank you for posting the Elizabeth Warren piece. I watched the entire 45 minutes. She is so credible and I enjoy her presentation style. It’s like you know something is wrong but you can’t sort out why…she does.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread
According this Wiki – the TED spread reached its high today 10-10
(I had never even heard of a “TED spread” until reading about it here…)
S/B – According to this Wiki – the TED spread reached its high today 10-10-08.
Hey, Gator. I just saw a headline and thought of you. It said something to the effect of: Palin guilty of abusing power.
Hah! Now try to tell me she isn’t qualified to be veep.
Gm & Chrysler talking merger, vow to make a vortex of suck unlike any seen before.
Today’s market summary, from former ultra-bull, Louis Navellier:
“However, capitulation days usually have a concrete reason for their rebounds. And today’s turnaround was built more on hope than reason.
The hope is that the G7, IMF, and World Bank meetings this weekend in Washington will yield a globally-coordinated effort to unfreeze the credit markets.
Investors are praying that world leaders will join together and guarantee all short-term debt of banks and many other financial institutions, inject fresh capital in such companies by purchasing equity stakes, guarantee all bank deposits (no matter how large), purchase their distressed assets, and continue cutting interest rates.
Obviously, that’s asking for a lot. Nonetheless, if we don’t get something close to that the stock market will likely go back to panicking.
Whatever happens, it’s important to point out that many stocks have been driven down to ridiculous levels. For example, Oprah Winfrey is now worth more than General Motors, which is worth less than it was in 1950. In fact, GM is now a small capitalization stock and trades at substantially less than its cash value. As such, we would not be surprised if a corporate raider, like a Kirk Kerkorian, stepped in and bought the entire company.
Meanwhile, many good corporate bonds are now yielding around 15%, and some cash-rich companies are now paying 8% dividends. As such, we think the panic selling is grossly overdone.
However, we’re in a deflationary environment, which can be very dangerous, since even if you have money to spend, you could hold off on your purchases, thinking that prices are going lower.”
First time home buyer. Almost made an offer recently.
We checked a house in Lyndhurst back in August. But the asking price was a little bit too high. So, I didn’t even bother to make an offer because I thought the seller would not lower the price too much. Last weekend, I drove by the house and saw ‘price reduced’ sign. We then plan to put an offer if the new asking price is right. But I was told that the house is under contract.
Shall I feel unlucky for not making an offer earlier or feel lucky cause the house price will keep droping?
Cindy (415)-
What Klink is signaling…is that he and his lackeys are out of ideas. Tapped out. Tilt. Game over.
After looking at the first stuff to come out of the Convention of World Brainiacs, my thought is that the ass-kicking will resume at the bell Tuesday AM.
tosh (420)-
Another real-life example of Beavis and Butthead, rolled into one.
can any one say elliot wave???? we will see an upward trend before the BIG drop….
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SO6vN6nDEmI/AAAAAAAADfE/WVr8OT4Ulqw/s1600-h/%24SPX-weekly.png
BC BOB:
Was a pleasure , thanks
cli,
VERY lucky
call of the day…
GM and Chrysler. One of them will no longer exist as of Dec 31 2008
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLA50874220081010?sp=true
Italy’s Prime Minister said on Friday there was talk of suspending markets but later played down the idea that this was a serious policy suggestion. Asked what European Union leaders might discuss if they meet in Paris this Sunday, Silvio Berlusconi told a news conference: “There is talk of suspending markets for the time needed to rewrite (international finance) rules.”
my guess us that roubinin is looking at the elliot wave pattern. an uptick in the market for a few weeks then we fall off of a cliff
419 Shore – Ha. I am trying to figure out how I am going to abuse my power in the Nom/Gator administration. But I will enjoy inciting crowds to riot and getting them to call Paulson et al terrorists at campaign rallies.
BTW – I think I’ve decided that the most egregious Palin tale has gotta be the billing rape victims for the cost of their rape kit exam. It was a real tough call with all there was to choose from, but I’m definitely sticking with that one.
Back to reality in the morning. Sigh. The trip has been a good one. Today I turned $2,000 into $16,000 in 7 hands at the blackjack table. Unfortunately it was funny money in a tournament, but I was the talk of the casino, doubling down on 15 and pulling a 5 in the final hand. Sarah Palin may be a hockey mom, but I know my cards and booze.
Here is a real estate question now that the doom and gloom from Friday is past us. I’m under contract to buy a house in South Jersey. We should have closed a few weeks ago but when the survey was done it was discovered that a neighbor has a deck that is encroaching on the property I want to buy. The survey lawyer came up with a License Agreement as a fairly quick fix, in that the neighbor would acknowledge they are encroaching on the property and would carry insurance if anyone would be hurt on my section and I wouldn’t be liable.
So far there is no movement. The seller of the property I want to buy has threatened to sue if the neighbors don’t hand over a notorized and signed License Agreement or remove the encroached deck. Does anyone have an idea how to move this along so I can close on the property?
Go tear down the deck in the middle of the night?
To:
Hobokenite, 432:
The thought has crossed my mind but I think they would know who to look for :)
#165 # Fiddy Cents on the Dollar Says:
October 10th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Shark River Hills is realtor-speak for Neptune Township.
Talk about lipstick on a pig!
Just like “Elberon” is part of Long Branch.
406 Cirus:
Wow they really call it that? I saw the name for the connection in A Beautiful Mind
Have you ever run into Dr. Nash on the train?
CNBC’s Dennis Neale says the market is just flat out wrong. I guess he knows something the market doesn’t. Silly market.
Leaving for Bucharest and Sofia on Monday, two of the poorest countries in the EU. Wonder what their take is on the fall of capitalism. See you Thursday. Betting on a Dow 7000.
RPatrick 435
If you are referring to “dinky”, yes, they really call it that.
Locals sometimes call it “the dink”.
beer,
any good comp killers this week? I need my fix.
Bairen,
Working on them, my friend. Be out in a few minutes.
GM, Chrysler said to hold merger talks
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/11/news/companies/bc.apfn.gm.chrysler.merger.ap/index.htm?cnn=yes
looking forward to it beer.
Grim (and Bairen),
This week’s report from the Hinterlands…
Hunterdon County Comp Killers
GSMLS recorded 18 sales in Hunterdon County this week. Only two made this list.
MLS#: 2506167
44 FITZER RD
Kingwood Twp
SLD: 09/30/04 $420,000
OLP: 04/08/08 $469,500
SLD: 10/10/08 $405,000
DOM: 143
MLS#: 2522540
31 Messenger
Raritan Twp
SLD: 08/31/04 $729,255
OLP: 05/30/08 $854,000
SLD: 10/06/08 $720,000
DOM: 109
Next up: Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers
DL (436)-
They’re stlll playing soccer with Ceaucescu’s head.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/161199/page/1
Newsweek – “The Monster That Ate Wallstreet.” Matthew Phillips
I have so had it with these Credit Default Swaps. As far as I’m concerned – they are illegal and should be deemed “null and void.”
Sorry – they never should have existed – so “poof” – gone….
They:
aren’t regulated
aren’t traded on any exchange
aren’t subject to securities laws
aren’t transparent
It is like me buying fire insurance on your house because I happen to know you are a pyromanic…
Not MY house mind you – YOUR house…What is to keep me from working toward my better interests and providing you with matches…
I don’t see how this is legal…the chances for hanky panky are so huge it is sickening..
Grim,
Hinterlands report, part two…
Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers
GSMLS recorded 42 new listings this week. Only two made this list.
MLS#: 2587364
83 LA COSTA DR
Clinton Twp
SLD: 09/22/03 $364,900
SLD: 05/10/05 $410,000
OLP: 10/07/08 $359,900 (under ’03 price)
DOM: 4
MLS#: 2588911
161 Locktown Sergeantsville
Delaware Twp
SLD: 05/10/07 $1,700,000
OLP: 10/07/08 $1,650,000
DOM: 4
This one is listed as a “fixer upper” for over a mil and a half. Flip side: 45 acres.
Eh
The bobblehead is speaking. Hasn’t he learned that when he speaks he makes it worse? No I guess someone with a learning disability wouldn’t pick that up quickly. It’s a good thing it’s Saturday.
(446) Lost
What in the world is this man thinking…Didn’t his mamma teach him “If you don’t have anything good to say – don’t say anything at all.”
447 CIndy
I think he forgot that during his frat days.
If we need capital in banks – Why don’t they pay 7% -8% on CDs? There must be a lot of money sitting on the sidelines now…
Couldn’t the government help out in this way? Then the folks who were prudent would actually be rewarded…
Comp Killer traffic was slow this week.
But I did notice some new construction price drops…
1 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2490759
OLP: 02/18/08 $599,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2587511
OLP: 10/07/08 $559,900
DOM: 4
2 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2491088
OLP: 02/18/08 $599,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2573542
OLP: 09/03/08 $599,900
Withdrawn DOM: 34
MLS#: 2588028
OLP: 10/07/08 $559,900
DOM: 4
3 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2490715
OLP: 02/18/08 $689,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2587521
OLP: 10/07/08 $589,900
DOM: 4
4 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2491144
OLP: 02/18/08 $639,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2573540
OLP: 09/03/08 $639,900
Withdrawn DOM: 34
MLS#: 2588024
OLP: 10/07/08 $559,900
DOM: 4
5 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2490728
OLP: 02/18/08 $639,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2587530
OLP: 10/07/08 $559,900
DOM: 4
6 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2491204
OLP: 02/18/08 $739,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2573541
OLP: 09/03/08 $739,900
Withdrawn DOM: 34
MLS#: 2588024
OLP: 10/07/08 $639,900
DOM: 4
7 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2490710
OLP: 02/18/08 $739,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2587538
OLP: 10/07/08 $639,900
DOM: 4
9 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2490702
OLP: 02/18/08 $829,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2587544
OLP: 10/07/08 $729,900
DOM: 4
10 JURGENSEN RD
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2491186
OLP: 02/18/08 $829,900
Expired DOM: 194
MLS#: 2573533
OLP: 09/03/08 $829,900
Withdrawn DOM: 34
MLS#: 2588003
OLP: 10/07/08 $589,900
DOM: 4
And the model home that is already standing (and still vacant):
517 Rosemont-Ringoes Road
Delaware Twp
MLS#: 2340075
OLP: 11/09/06 $689,900
Expired DOM: 212
MLS#: 2493561
OLP: 02/29/08 $639,900
Expired DOM: 182
MLS#: 2587551
OLP: 10/07/08 $569,000
Cindy (444)-
It’s pari-mutuel wagering.
Too bad that casinos and racetracks can manage it better that Wall St.
beer (445)-
Every unit that sells in the section of Beaver Brook where 83 La Costa is will become a comp killer.
Their owners just don’t know it yet.
Locktown-Sergeantsville Rd is a flip gone bad.
Son of the listing agent.
alia – Terry Pratchett in addition to the Nigerian Dwarf goats! Now I know I need to make it to a GTG.
Hard Place/Cirrus –
I live 15 minutes northeast of Princeton and I second his description of the commute. It is always underestimated. I found the fastest way door to door was actually with the bus and that still takes an hour and a half.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122368180323324909.html
“Rescue Plan Comes Around to Academics” WSJ – Justin LaHart
“The economists came from different schools of thought and varying political stripes but all agreed that recapitalizing banks was a key initiative.”
That sounds better to me than trying to buy toxic loans that no one knows the value of…
Why don’t the just cover the difference in interest (5%) from the 2% banks pay on CDs to the 7% or 8% they could be paying people who saved, were prudent, and deserve a break….
Gifts for Skittish Buyers
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/realestate/12cov.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=realestate&pagewanted=print
__________________________________________
IF there was any doubt that real estate in New York City had finally shifted from the high-flying seller’s market of recent years into a buyer’s market, consider the strategies that some developers of new condominiums have recently adopted: Seller financing for up to 90 percent of the purchase price with rates as low as 4.875 percent; payment of mortgage points to reduce the interest rate for buyers; payment of transfer taxes, lawyers’ fees, and up to six months in common charges; free parking or a free storage unit.
Brokers agree that price reductions have become almost commonplace in some developments and even in resales in established co-ops. The market slowed over the summer, convincing many sellers that they had been asking too much for their apartments.
Then, the upheaval on Wall Street helped make buyers even bolder. Some are placing lowball bids on three, four or even five properties, just to see where they can get the best deal.
These tactics are not new, of course, but until recently they had fallen out of use within the city because the market was so strong that properties sold quickly, bidding wars were more the norm and buyers who hesitated were likely to lose out.
“People try a lot of different things in markets that are a little challenging,” said Andrew Gerringer, the managing director for Prudential Douglas Elliman’s development marketing group. “Developers who are not negotiable today are not thinking along the right lines.”
Developers always start with the free Granite counter top first. This usually brings in the first set of suckers who think they are getting a deal, only to find that even with the granite counter top the house is now worth 20% less.
#459 Yeah, and granite is ugly too. Especially the tan stuff – it looks like throw-up.
Forget who it was but someone called this one yesterday.
ATLANTIC CITY — Gaming revenues for September plummeted a record 15.1 percent to $356 million compared to the same month a year ago, the state Casino Control Commission said Friday.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20081011/NEWS01/810110370/-1/newsfront2
(458) DL
As Clot pointed out @451
“It’s all pari-mutuel betting”
Who needs Vegas? Atlantic City?
We’re all gamblers now…
No need to pay for a plane ticket to Vegas – I just watch TV and read NJRE.
Cindy (455)-
Recapitalize banks? Fine. If it’s on my dime, I want preferred shares w/ a giant coupon.
Warrants? Promises of some vague payoff, sometime in the future?
Then, they can stick it.
The taxpayer deserves Buffett-like terms, if not better.
Residents of ‘sinking’ condo say they’ll be homeless. The condo Middle Island apartment building say they’ll be out on the street next week because their building is sinking and their condo board can’t afford to keep them in hotels any longer.
In a related note Toll Brothers plans on buying the development in bankruptcy and renaming the building Atlantis, all zero down applicants with low FICO scores are welcome.
CDS is not pari-mutuel as their are buyes and sellers that are brought together. In other words they has to be a buyer for a seller and a seller for a buyer. CDS is more like insurance products with an active secondary market.
In pari-mutuel trades the concept of buyers and sellers do not exist. For instance in a race everyone 100% can bet on the same horse
and if that horse won you would just get back the price you paid on your bet. However, in a two horse reace if 99% of people bet on one horse and 99% lost the 1% who bet on the winning horse would clean up. However, if it was a three horse race and 99% bet on horse A and 1% bet on horse B and no one bet on Horse C and horse C won OTB keeps whole pot. October 11th, 2008 at 9:48 am
(458) DL
As Clot pointed out @451
“It’s all pari-mutuel betting”
Who needs Vegas? Atlantic City?
We’re all gamblers now…
The banks are doing that. JPM, BAC, Wells, M&T, Citi are offering senior corp bonds at 10%. The FDIC CDs are basically govt insured cash that should trade closer to the risk free govt rate than to the riskier bank corporate bonds.
Cindy Says:
October 11th, 2008 at 8:39 am
If we need capital in banks – Why don’t they pay 7% -8% on CDs? There must be a lot of money sitting on the sidelines now…
Couldn’t the government help out in this way? Then the folks who were prudent would actually be rewarded…
FYI my friend who lives beyone her means makes over 250K and is single but has no cash and has no debt other than her mortgage and car lease tried to refinance her 5% jumbo today before her 3/27 flips early next year. The friday quote she got from two banks for a house in Bergan County was 11%, she only put down 5% so she is underwater.
(464) John
John, say someone was just burned by a Lehman bond…but could only earn a bit in treasuries. I don’t think they would be attracted to a bond of any sort in this environment but they might trust their local bank or CU with their money if they had it in their name – in a high-paying CD.
Chrysler GM makes lots of sense. GM could fire every non union white collar worker at Chrysler right away. Plus govt has plans on back burner to give tax breaks to american car companies and since Chrysler has seedy hedge fund owners and has a minority German interest it is not really the type of company the US GOVT writes checks too. GM could pay for it by getting rid of sickly GMAC. Now if GM getst he 25 billion to retool on a timely basis and we can keep gas low for at least another year it would work out great. Trouble is Wall Street likes one ‘IF” anytime a turnaround plan is dependent on multiple ifs they usually go bankrupt before plan is implemented.
The survivior banks like Chase are not going to be allowed to go down. Plus they have a two billion dollar balance sheet. Investing is all about opportunity versus reward the opportunity to get 10% plus on a company with a low chance of going under is worth it at least for part of your money. Right now if you are conservative and dont need money in next 12 months I see people doing T-bills, and then some Triple AAA munis and Triple AAA investment grades going out less than five years. However, you can’t go 100% t-bills for too long as they are taxable and below the rate of inflation.
Cindy Says:
October 11th, 2008 at 10:23 am
(464) John
John, say someone was just burned by a Lehman bond…but could only earn a bit in treasuries. I don’t think they would be attracted to a bond of any sort in this environment but they might trust their local bank or CU with their money if they had it in their name – in a high-paying CD.
The German government’s bailout package for the financial sector will total EUR300 billion to EUR400 billion, combining state guarantees and the option to get a direct stake in banks, the online version of Handelsblatt newspaper reports Saturday citing experts in the ruling grand coalition parties.
In a separate report, Der Spiegel weekly magazine reports that Germany plans to implement a multi-billion euro rescue package for the ailing financial sector in a fast-track legislative process.
Awarding guarantees and injecting liquidity are among the measures being considered by the government, as well as a recapitalization of banks of between EUR50 billion to EUR100 billion in return for a stake in financial institutions, Der Spiegel said in an advanced released report Saturday, citing unnamed government officials. Handelsblatt also says the direct recapitalization of the institutions might amount to this sum.
I’m thinking about trust issues John. The folks are seriously spooked.
They don’t want to touch an investment vehicle with the word “bond” on it just now with a ten-foot pole.
You could tell them about Chase’s balance sheet until you were blue in the face but at the end of the day they want to see their own name on a CD.
Still thinking about a gun but the permit process is unreal in NYC. I think maybe a bat and a cast iron frying pan might be the way to go.
#442 beer,
Thanks for the updates. Wonder how soon before we see prices at 2001-2 levels on a regular basis.
John – Another bank question. There appear to be only a few really big banks that probably hold most of the money in the US – right? But there are community banks and CUs, too. Shouldn’t people have the opportunity to CHOOSE who they put their money with? By telling me that you can earn 10% – but you MUST deal only with these large outfits who “won’t be allowed to fail”… How fair is that? No, accross the board – if they backed up the low interest rates that CDs now pay so all institutions could offer a high-rate CD – money could flow back into the system – fairly.
Look – now I AM writing like you – No paragraphs…Geez
444- cindy there’s a lot of misinformation about cds because few people understand them. cds are to bonds very roughly what puts and calls are to stocks. As in ability to make bets on credit without actually owning the bonds. they are a zero sum game in that where one party wins the other loses. large banks that have hundreds of billions of this stuff are largely matched in that their books are not onesided unless they choose to make large concentrated bets using cds. but this is more typical of hedge funds. also note that of bear, lehman, fan, fred, aig etc only aig’s problems had some to do with cds. but only because they insured bonds backed by bad mortgages. so the problem is with the underlying not cds itself. leh going bk should have a few blow ups related to cds but i have only seen limited reports on some insurance copmanies losses. bondholder losses (pimcos and others) are much larger.
the biggest problem with cds is that they are not transparent can can be abused by pushing an illiquid market higher(bad in cds) on small vollume. that will spook stockholders etc feeding a cycle that is tough to break.
#467 – John – GM/Chrysler makes no sense other than a desperation move. GM, as it is, has too many poorly performing brands that need to be killed off. The acquisition of even more will not help their situation.
These are two companies that offer no real integration possibilities. Other than some mini-vans what does Chrysler have that GM doesn’t already offer? Chrysler has some cross-platform development with Mitsubishi, but GM already has Opel/Vauxhall/Holden for that.
These are two drowning entities each hoping to use the other as a life-preserver.
GM’s debt liabilities are only a part of their problem. The company has been mismanaged for years and their products are extremely week. The only thing that has kept them lurching along is cheap credit and the culture that has fostered, without it they are gone.
Don’t even get me started on Chrysler.
And back to real estate. After all that has happened this past week, I would have thought that I might see some significant price reductions in asking prices in my town.
Well not one. And nothing moving either, even all the listings at 399k
All the listings just sitting and rotting on the market.
The government has missed their chance to bail out “Main Street”.
Main Street Bank of Northville, Michigan, with $98 million in assets and $86 million in deposits, was turned over to the FDIC yesterday. Monroe Bank & Trust of Monroe, Michigan, bought the deposits and today will open its two offices near Detroit as branches.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqNGxkgoO5Hc
476 3b
Same here. I see no reductions. These people think they’re untouchable.
476 and 478
Maybe they are untouchable… Maybe we are the ones who need ‘capitulation’. I am losing heart. I smelled bubble in 2004-05 and found this blog soon after when researching the issue.
I have seen some interesting listings and have come close, but been reluctant to make any offers. The offers would be low-balls and most assuredly rejected.
#476
“denile ain’t just a river in Egypt”
Where’s that from? (not a trivia question since I do no know the answer.
To
479. pricedOut
Go ahead and make some offers. You never know what will happen. I was able to get a large price reduction for the house I’m buying.
http://www.quotedb.com/quotes/1372
jersey jim….could you give us some details?
Chi,
How do you like HON. I sold March, 09, 30 puts at $4.90. Figure worse that can happen is I get called and own HON around $25. This would be a 60% discount off its high and approx 17% below close on Fri. I don’t mind putting HON away, long term, at 25. Realizing that you can’t comment entirely, your disclaimer thoughts?
By the way, can we bury disclaimer? Maybe JB can change the name to the New Jersey Disclaimer Report?
(408)
Interesting lecture. I guess blaming overconsumption and materialism for the destruction of the middle class is a fallacy.
It appears the true culprit of the middle class decline are nearly all government sponsored – GSEs, sallie mae, and taxes.
3b/lost,
Most listings are pie in the sky. They have a better chance of seeing Santa sliding down the chim. It’s either find a bigger fool, take it off the market and get comfortable for at least 10 years or jingle mail. On the flip side, I see short sales growing in exponential proportions.
The stock market turns over more than 100% each year. Unfortunately, RE turns over at approx 10%. It’s a slow moving tanker. However, the tanker is picking up speed.
Plenty of blame to go around.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/09/business/09greenspan.php?page=1
486 BC
I’m well aware. My particular problem is we are eyeing (more then other areas) a certain gated community where many units are for sale but there are minimal if any price reductions. Some listings have been active over a year. It’s considered an exclusive area in a not so exclusive neighborhood. There are now several “luxury” buildings being built nearby but most units are not selling. I believe these sellers, where we’re looking, keep their prices high believing the new buildings will bring added value and higher comps. I hope in time, we will get our price. But its incredibly frustrating sitting around and watching grass grow.
TO:
483. CAIBC
I was able to get the price down $95,000 off the original asking price. This is a house in South Jersey. I notice a lot of people here are from North Jersey. Still, the lot is almost a full acre and the house is nice.
(474) guest13
“The biggest problem with cds is that they are not transparent and can be abused by pushing an illiquid market higher (bad in cds) on small volume. That will spook stockholders etc. feeding a cycle that is tough to break.”
I don’t get it. – I’m sorry… I don’t mean to be dense…I just figured if the CDs are FDIC insured (aren’t they?) it would add capital to banks with out risk to the depositor. So they aren’t transparent…??? How about increasing the rate on a regular savings account?
Nouriel Roubini: “The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system… and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.
At this point the risk of an imminent stock market crash – like the one-day collapse of 20% plus in US stock prices in 1987 – cannot be ruled out as the financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any counterparty is sharply rising and the investors have totally lost faith in the ability of policy authorities to control this meltdown….
When… even the most radical policy actions don’t provide rallies or relief to market participants, you know that you are one step away from a market crack and a systemic financial sector and corporate sector collapse. A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset collapses, margin calls, cascading falls in asset prices well below falling fundamentals and panic is now underway.” (Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor)
Tosh,
In answer to your question, “Other than some mini-vans what does Chrysler have that GM doesn’t already offer,” I believe the answer might be the design department. Chrysler has been far better at putting cars ont the market that have a “wow factor.,” whereas GM’s cars have been awful looking.
They would also get to reduce expenses by having one proving grounds, and eliminating nameplates. Jeep is still a killer product, and should be for some years. The folks who own Chrysler now (named for the two-headed dog that guards the enterance to hades, as I understand it) gets a chance to buy a huge stake in GM for a song. Does anyone here thing the new social-ist governemnt in this nation would allow GM to fold? It is a masterful move, IF they do serious nameplate cullling AND move quickly to alternative-fule vehicles and leaving the trucks to GMC, for commercial purposes.
“Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — Federal regulators directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start purchasing $40 billion a month of underperforming mortgage bonds as the Bush administration expands its options to buy troubled financial assets and resuscitate the U.S. economy, according to three people briefed about the plan.”
“Fannie and Freddie began notifying bond traders last week that each company needs to buy $20 billion a month in mostly subprime, Alt-A and non-performing prime mortgage securities, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are confidential. The purchases would be separate from the U.S. Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDjJYMSphyM0&refer=home
#480 And Northville, Michigan is a very nice Brigadoon-type town.
GM-Chrysler: Like lashing the Titanic to the Andrea Doria.
Cindy—I think you and guest13 are confusing acronyms. You’re talking about Certificates of Deposit; guest is talking about Credit Default Swaps.
“Wall Street Bailout May Hammer Tenants
Tenant advocates fear one casualty could be a swath of New York’s affordable housing stock”
http://tinyurl.com/4y9v6z
http://www.metcouncil.net/publications/oct08.pdf
#486 BC Bpb: I know, just amazed that there is still so much denial.As I have often said in the past, during the decline in the early 90’s I seem to remember prices declining a lot faster,and things were not nearly as bad as now.
I believe it could be a refletion of just how desperate sellers are now vs. than. They have to hold on to these fantasty prices, it is all they have.
But I will wait, if I do not get a deal, I ain’t buying, but in the end I have no doubt I will get a deal.
Guy named Joe Ficalora from Community Bancorp. is on BTV now. Lends on cash flow only. No issues.
He’s talking about what it’s like to be a gem right now bobbing in the same tank with a bunch of sinking tankers.
Expects increased earnings with no need to conserve capital. They’re down 20% (pretty good, actually).
When is the bargain on these guys? I’m thinking if my original 1999 estimate is on track, then at 30% discount, these niche little guys are bargains.
Everybody’s asking when investors are going to stand up and say the pledge of allegiance. I’m still sitting, but I’m getting greedy.
(496) Thank you Peace. I thought I was going crazy for a minute there….
Stu, Lil Gator and I are on the plane. Enjoy your Saturday all!
DL Says:
October 11th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Forget who it was but someone called this one yesterday.
ATLANTIC CITY — Gaming revenues for September plummeted a record 15.1 percent to $356 million compared to the same month a year ago, the state Casino Control Commission said Friday.
i will take partial credit for this one. it was slow recently at borgata.
Happy flying Gator Family.
Outofstater, or Thelma to Louise.
#507 Pretty good, Shore, pretty good.
wild day in college football:
– No. 1 loses despite their QB throwing 5 TDs
– Unbeaten Vandy loses
– Michigan lost to TOLEDO in Michigan
It does feel good to be able to veg on the couch all day, not a worry in the world.
Well, i am worried where we’re ordering dinner from tonight, but that’s all.
Clot,
Are you a contributor to I-Tulip?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPHUtFxaJ8M
Yikes,
Oklahoma got hosed and I am saying that as somebody who hates Oklahoma!
economic terroism going on..in this ocountry..and in your face!
“Naturally, the common people don’t want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. …voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”
-Nazi Hermann Göring
Hehe
What happened to OU?
220#, skep, now it seems a mean reversion for euro:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=eurusd%3Dx#chart8:symbol=eurusd=x;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Bi – nice to have you back! I need a laugh … what are ging to be some of your picks this week?
OU didn’t get hosed … that defense is a joke. OU QB threw 5 TDs but the D didnt help him at all. COlt McCoy played a damn good game for texas
Schiller made an interesting point on Fox, no one has lost any money, on houses or the market. Money only exists when you sell the house or investment. Before that, it is just theoretical flucuating paper valuations. So people who’s $1M 401K’s have been reduced to $1K 401K’s can take solace in the fact that they lost no money. Unfortunatel, most people don’t understand that.
HI ALL!!!
I’ve been surfin’ lately at politcal blgs to keep up, but still had time to put in two offers. Both went belly up as they were “low” compared to asking price.
Sadly, one was 4x the buy price in 2002, one was 3x the buy price in 2001. Yes, 4x and 3x the BUY prices…
Still not good enough for either seller. Mr 2001 wants about 6x the price he paid in 2001 and Mr 2002 wants 7x the price he paid in 2002…these are not typos. Sadly, Mr 2001 did a lot of work to the place, it’s move in ready. Mr 2002 actually degraded his property… his property looks like a junkyard….whereas it was clean when he bought it.
This is commercial, but there’s STILL a disconnect out there…
(sigh.)
“people who’s $1M 401K’s have been reduced to $1K 401K’s can take solace in the fact that they lost no money.”
Yes and no. Mrs. Shore and I have put substantial amounts of money into retirement accounts this past year. Before doing so, the cash had a certain value. Now it is worth aq whole lot less. Had we put the money into CDs, or even a bank account, we would still have the cash value, minus inflation. We, in fact, have lost real money.
“Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World’s Markets”
http://tinyurl.com/4n3x43
378#, bob, i am already long in financials and S&P. no more gold.
>If the market is up on Monday, I guarantee Bi shows up and tells us he got long today.
#519 Dear Silvio – Suck it up! The markets stay open because the markets have to stay open because the markets are the only thing that bring any kind of SENSE and ORDER to this mess. Jeez, haven’t you learned ANYTHING???
Sorry guys, on my second glass.
#492 – Shore – One of the primary reasons MB acquired Chrysler during the 90’s was for access to their design studios. We’d both agree the studio is cool but is this enough to justify a merger? Why not just wait for Chrysler to go belly up and hire away the talent? It’s the talent that actually makes the studio worthwhile.
Jeep is a great brand name mired down by indifferent products that are duplicated in every single marque GM owns.
Both GM and Chrysler have too much head-to-head competition for any sort of merger to be worthwhile. The cost savings they might realize in terms of facilities would be very short term and largely offset by the costs associated with shutting down varying redundant plants. I just don’t see this as realistic.
I don’t even want to think about what the dealer network would be like.
Concerning claims of terrorism –
Saw on another board the claim that Huckabee was on Fox (believable) claiming that he had it on good authority that the recent swings in the Market are as a result of financial terrorism on behalf of shady foreign “forces”.
Sad thing is, plenty are ready to jump on the idea. With some blame attached to media ‘doom and gloom”.
Sigh.
Welcome back spam.
First OU had a couple mystery personal foul calls made against them. Then they pick off a pass in the end zone and the refs claimed that it wasn’t an interception. Lousy call. I’ll be the first to agree their defense stunk, but the refs were as bad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPnpSpXY9Ac
Huckabee with his conspiracy ideas
Huckabee on the need for less regulation, not more –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-euFOTAKrqs&feature=related
And this guy was in the running for the GOP nom at one point.
INF warns about potential global financial meltdown
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081011/bs_nm/us_financial3
Since the IMF makes Kramer look clairvoyant, should I be concerned or relieved by this article?
lisoosh, SAS
you will continue to see such claims and see them more often. Its a classic issue. as the people beginning to feel the pain the government must find a scape goat for the American peoples ire to be focused on.
be on the alert for false flag terrorism.
Google: government sponsered terrorism
SAS
also, if the pension funds collapse.
be afraid… be very afraid.
SAS
if pension funds collapse, that will be the straw that breaks the camels backs.
Do I think its going to happen? No.
but right now, things are a little unpredictable. never say never.
not my Johnny!!
ha ha
SAS
On the bright side I cleaned the gutters and only fell off the ladder once. I also scraped and repainted a wrought iron railing and only got cut once. I’m going to celebrate with a tetanus booster. It’s been almost 5 years so I think I’m do.
Gator family on the ground in time to catch most of Florida – LSU at The Swwamp.
Regarding 401ks, conventional wisdom says to never borrow against it unless there is no other option. I’ve seen many people max out their loans over the past few years for buying a home, car, etc. These people benefit from this weeks market decline because they had less money in the market. Is it time to consider 401k loans as a way to reduce risk and exposure to the markets? This may benefit people who have few ‘safe & stable’ 401k investment options.
I think it’s interesting that Government is considering eliminating Capital Gains Tax, but refuses to Address Tax on Interest.
#532 Confused in NJ
The leaders in government and their main donors own stocks or stakes in private companies. The masses have bank accounts.
BC Bob Says:
October 11th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
I sold March, 09, 30 puts at $4.90. Figure worse that can happen is I get called and own HON around $25. Realizing that you can’t comment entirely, your disclaimer thoughts?
Bost: I won’t comment on the company, but that is fine. I will comment on the approach which is a shrewd way to pick the hedgies pockets with their “long with a put” trades in this environment. Pocketing premiums with these vols is very nice. The only other comment is that you are working with a platform that ensure superior trade execution. When you are doing sophisticated trading, the premium platforms pay for themselves in dislocated markets.
Anyone else considering this approach besides Bost should go grab a drink with the Wile E. Coyote of Doom instead.
512#, yikes,
three interesting things happened in friday’s trading: 1) four remaining major banks (C, JPM, BAC and WFC) staying up even when dow was down over 500 pts. 2) gold sold off before market rally; 3) even defensive stocks in food, healthcare and utility are down from 8 to 12% before 3:00 pm. what these signals told me? panic selling to a capitulation point.
while it has been a tough week playing bullish strategy, personally i am still above the water so far.
since most people’s retirement plans are heavily invested in stock market,
there is nothing cheerful when looking at S&P down 20% in a week.
Bc Bob,
Thanks for your tip on the shinny stuff the other day.
Let’s not overreact on the gold sell-off, people.
SKF touched $200 and there was a massive selloff. Gold had a huge selloff Friday after it hit what, 930?
537#, there is nothing fancy about gold. it is best for panic hedging. if the equity market would sink another 20% as the IMF guy warned, it would rock to over 1100 again. but if stock market is recovering next week as i am hoping, gold can easily go back to test 735 again.
Watching the Gators blow out LSU and catching up on a week plus backlog of emails.
While checking out my auto listings from the GSMLS, I notice that they are using a new map utility and this one conveniently does not display railroad tracks. Awfully convenient.
October 12, 2008
IMF warns that markets could collapse by another 20%
David Smith and Dominic Rushe in Washington
The world is on the brink of financial meltdown, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last night. His bleak warning came as finance ministers tried to calm the frenzy in markets that saw share prices crash by more than 20% last week.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4926584.ece
Great *CRASH PROOF* video by PETER SCHIFF – the meltdown !!!
re: pass this on let everyone see this video
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_G/threadview?m=tm&bn=8089&tid=186288&mid=186288&tof=7&rt=2&frt=1&off=1
He forewarned everyone years before the Market Crash!!!!
Look what happen now ? Our 401K, mutual funds and stocks tumbled down the drain !
Thanks Peter for the warning.
Tosh,
I do not disagree with you. And, the dealers would get killed. I suspect that GM is kooking for an easy way to 1) keep ahead of Toyota awhile longer and 2) to get some more cash. They have, what, a year to go until they are toast cash wise?
This just in —> NNJ real estate values to drop an additional 30% over the next 24-36 months…and now we return to our regularly scheduled programming….
which ones of your prescient lot put your money where you mouth is? if you did and shorted you’d be a gazillionare now.
I bought quite a few gold coins a few years ago for just such an emergency as the one we are going through. However, if the price goes above $1,000 again I’m going to sell half of it. The way things are going it should go through the roof.
BTW, I’m predicting a Giants win this week!
RE, I was thinking about you last night when I read this:
“This fellow Anderson and his ilk have minds that are lower than the regurgitated filth of vultures…”
You might read through some of the published notes. Some good stuff.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27136155/
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
Worth the time – Paul Volcker talks to Charlie Rose – video – about have way down the thread..30 minutes or so…The man is reassuring – he sees the good that can come out of the upheaval with the 5 investment banks gone…
and the need for adapting the regulations to the times.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10102008/watch.html
George Soros and his ideas -video
#547 re101
“If he wins this damn election and has a majority of liberals with that hussy Nancy P. in charge, if will be time for me to leave this damn country.”
I hear New Zealand is nice this time of year and not too hard to move to if you are under 45 and have qualified job skills.
off italics
Lady,
Are you comparing me to Jack Anderson? You couldn’t deliver a blow lower than that to insult me. I am no Jack Anderson.
One insult deserves another and you remind me of Nancy Pelosi. Now there, go put that in your cud and chew it.
Pat Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 7:18 am
RE, I was thinking about you last night when I read this:
“This fellow Anderson and his ilk have minds that are lower than the regurgitated filth of vultures…”
You might read through some of the published notes. Some good stuff.
How dare you post anything from this liberal radical? All he wants to do is smoke dope and rail against our government. He has absolutely no standing to say anything about anything.
Cindy Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:00 am
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10102008/watch.html
George Soros and his ideas -video
reinvestor101
Why should you care if Omama wins? He’s only going to raise taxes on those making over 250k a year. It’s pretty clear you won’t be impacted. Me on the other hand….
Guess what? I’m not going to look to you for any advice. You support O and I can’t stand you.
bairen Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:07 am
#547 re101
I hear New Zealand is nice this time of year and not too hard to move to if you are under 45 and have qualified job skills
You just don’t get it do you? ANY TAX INCREASE RIGHT NOW WILL DESTROY US AND IT’S THE WRONG THING TO DO. If you combine this with the fact that he does not want to drill and that he pals around with terrorists like Ayers and Wright makes me REALLY UPSET. HOW IN THE HELL DO WE FIND OURSELVES IN THIS POSITION?
heavy hitter Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:21 am
reinvestor101
Why should you care if Omama wins? He’s only going to raise taxes on those making over 250k a year. It’s pretty clear you won’t be impacted. Me on the other hand….
#562″ margincall101
HOW IN THE HELL DO WE FIND OURSELVES IN THIS POSITION?
Because you don’t have to take an IQ or any competency test to vote in this country, so millions of bozos like you get to vote.
Re @ 559
Just listen to BOTH videos – Soros AND Volcker…
Excellent overviews and opinions…
-This is the end of an era –
We were consuming 61/2% more than we were producing – that has come to an end.
-The current economic disaster is self-generated. It was generated by the market itself, by getting cocky, using leverage too much, too much credit, and it got excessive.”
-Unfortunately, the authorities are behind the curve. They are reacting to the crisis as problems emerge.
Both advocate recapitalizing banks.
John (468)-
In the mechanics, you are completely correct. In that respect, I used a bad analogy.
However, in the attitude of the “investors”, it is pari-mutuel all the way. A big horse race of a proposition…albeit one in which many companies that wrote the “insurance” thought they’d never, ever have to pay up. Money for nothing, as it were.
lost (476)-
Don’t underestimate the power of a good Taser.
I just listened to this damn fool Soros and he has the nerve to compare Marxism and market capitalism as failed ideologies. It’s this sort of crap that should be censored and not allowed to be expressed anywhere. I’ve always seen Soros as a self absorbed little twit who has tried to pass himself off as an intellectual.
As to you Heavy Hitter, please go to your nearest bridge and jump off of it. Thanks in advance for your compliance with this request.
Clot 565
DH already has one.
I just read the following at money.msn.com
Have a hearty laugh!
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Insurance giant American International Group , on the receiving end of a multi-billion dollar bailout from the Federal Reserve, was trying hard on Saturday to look on the bright side of life.
“Credit markets do not function. Why not, because the word credit comes from credibility,” AIG Vice Chairman Jacob Frenkel told a group of top global bankers at a lively luncheon where he took a philosophical view of the upheaval in financial markets.
“The left side of the balance sheet has nothing right and the right side of the balance sheet has nothing left. But they are equal to each other. So accounting-wise we are fine,” he told the Institute of International Finance.
AIG, crippled by losses on bad mortgage bets, was bailed out by the Fed with an $85 billion cash lifeline last month. Three days ago, the Fed expanded its assistance in a manner that could bring the total aid up to around $120 billion.
“Transparency is ‘what you see is what you get’ — and what you don’t see gets you,” Frenkel said.
tosh (480)-
GM (and Chrysler) represent the absolute worst of American manufacturing and management. They make crappy products that nobody wants to buy, while simultaneously running their operations like Dunder-Mifflin. They also play host to a whole panoply of parasites and leeches, such as labor unions and parts/component companies.
The result of this is that GM and Chrysler ceased being car companies about 20 years ago. They are actually giant HMOs and administrators of a sort of giant Soviet on acid.
GM and Chrysler- instead of merging- should be forced to shut down and sell whatever assets they have to Toyota. Perhaps any of their workers- the 10% or so who actually possess a brain and the desire to work- can be absorbed by Toyota as well. Perhaps once this occurs, 50% of the current population of Michigan can be forced to move to Texas, New Mexico and Arizona…and half the housing stock in Michigan can be condemned and bulldozed.
My dad worked for GM (not in Detroit) from the end of WWII into the late 70’s. He had the chance to work under DeLorean (during the development of the Trans-Am) and other terrific people.
However, my dad also up and quit in 1979…and told me then that the company was finished. I still remember him telling me the company didn’t give a damn about the quality of the cars they put on the road.
Too bad it took them 29 years to wind it down.
We are definitely in a recession, CNN is reporting that $300 designer jeans are now selling for $100. Talk about deflation!
lost (493)-
Every day sellers like this hold out, the worse they are making it in the end.
Be patient. The battleship is turning. Maybe right now is a time for a lot of LODs to attend to even more important matters. The putrefecation of RE will continue apace. All those houses will still be there a few weeks or a few months hence…and be there at even better prices and terms.
you all have to see this!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o&feature=related
peter schiff again!
inflated home values – the culprits?…appraisers!!! how can one group completely bring down the US and world economy in just 5 years! WOW!
Speaking of putrefecation…think I’ll jump back into SRS Monday AM. It got pounded in the last hour on Friday.
Can’t like the prospect of the mtg outfits, REITs, etc in that pile of dung. In about three weeks, they’re gonna realize Christmas has been cancelled.
BC (499)-
There’s your first gubmint admission that the “problem” might be a teensy bit more that the 700 bn we just pissed down a hole.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/99502-the-party-is-over-the-crisis-we-borrowed-spent-our-way-into?source=email#comment_form
Peter Schiff – today – Seeking Alpha
3b (505)-
The ultimate deflationary mindset:
“But I will wait, if I do not get a deal, I ain’t buying, but in the end I have no doubt I will get a deal.”
I’ve been reading this blog since the beginning of the year when I started house hunting. I’m in my upper 20’s and stiLl living at home with the parents as I save up cash and wait out the market. I have a 100k to drop down as a down payment and I would love to move out of my parents house soon. I know there are biased opinions on this site, but does anyone think buying a house in this current market could be a good thing if one gets the “right” price?
cindy et all,
way too much truth to what peter is saying in that article….
given the current trend of college tuition rates, i always wondered how we would pay for our two little ones to go to college….estimated costs when we they get there were like 300K or something!
the amount of money i was saving for them werent going to cut it! didnt think of college tuition like home prices!!! hopefully that too will come down!
“does anyone think buying a house in this current market could be a good thing if one gets the “right” price?”
If one gets the house at a price that reflects where prices will be in a year or two, sure, it can be a good time to buy. Mrs. Shore and I are looking for an additional place, and had planned to buy this autumn or inthe spring; howerver, now we find ourselves holding back. One thing that concerns us is the prospect for skyrocketing property tax rates. Unless the towns, counties, and the State get their acts together and cut, cut, cut, they will need to make up reduced income tax revenue someplace.
BC (513)-
ROFLMAO. So funny, because the analogy is idiotic, yet fitting.
This is also my reaction every time I see Barney Frank. He should be taking tickets at a peep show somewhere…yet he’s one of the most powerful people in Congress.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/11/AR2008101102064.html?hpid=topnews
Incumbents Are Attacked for Rescue Plan
In Campaigns, Bipartisan Effort Is Criticized by Opponents From Both Sides
spammy (520)-
The new commercial lender mantra is that the foreclosure wave won’t hit that sector, due to its “superior” underwriting quality.
Let’s see what happens when that collateral gets stressed by 75-100% vacancy rates. Most commercial RE in our area that was bought post-2003 was financed based upon utopian assumptions.
Who are these fools fooling?
Both GM and Chrysler have shown all electric powered vehiles in the past month. I think getting those two vehicles to market in 2010 is the last hope for the US automotive industry.
Maybe now they will do things the correct way:
White House Overhauling Rescue Plan
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/business/12imf.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
snip
Two weeks after persuading Congress to let it spend $700 billion to buy distressed securities tied to mortgages, the Bush administration has put that idea aside in favor of a new approach that would have the government inject capital directly into the nation’s banks —
snip
bi (523)-
As always, thanks for the contrarian indicator.
“He should be taking tickets at a peep show somewhere…”
Clot,
Have you never seen the legislative process up close in DC? (sarcastic)
tosh (525)-
Look at it this way: the merger might go well, since the corporate cultures of GM and X-ler are so similar.
I liked your “giant vortex of suck” analogy.
Also from the times piece noted above (which shows why congress should have held hearings on that Thurs-Monday, after Paulson dropped the plan intheir lap):
“As recently as Sept. 23, senior officials had publicly derided proposals by Democrats to have the government take ownership stakes in banks.
The Treasury Department’s surprising turnaround on the issue of buying stock in banks, which has now become its primary focus, has raised questions about whether the administration squandered valuable time in trying to sell Congress on a plan that officials had failed to think through in advance.”
soosh (526)-
This, from a man who thinks dinosaurs are a hoax.
“I liked your “giant vortex of suck” analogy.”
I hear Clinton, Bill that is, heard about that comment and immediately booked transit to Det.
Clot,
A hoax, or that they existed, like, 400 years ago, lol.
soosh (529)-
Put a mustache on him, and note the similarity to Der Fuhrer.
Really…try it.
CAIBC Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 9:10 am
peter schiff again!
inflated home values – the culprits?…appraisers!!! how can one group completely bring down the US and world economy in just 5 years! WOW!
CAIBC: Be really careful here…..no one is 100% right….don’t put anyone on a pedestal; you will be let down……
gal (550)-
Me. And a lot of other people here besides me.
However, I have never been so scared in my adult life. We are on the brink of oblivion. Making scratch in the markets has never been such cold comfort.
lifer (583)-
GM and X-ler will come to market with electric cars…just as oil has retreated to $11 a barrel.
Stu/Gator – Great Napa wines @ last night’s dinner party: Donum 2005 Carneros Pinot – Edna Valley, Robert Stemmler -2004 – Russian River Pinot, Tolosa Edna Valley , Rombauer -1997 Napa Zin, Hawkeye Mountain-2004-Russian River, Frank Family – 2000 Rutherford -Napa Valley. Westbrook Wine Farm – Peterson family – Lodi -Cab. No – I didn’t try them all – The Rombauer held up…Donum my favorite – but only because the pinots were before dinner – I couldn’t keep up. Did you stop in at any Edna Valley wineries?
re: #584 – Too many rules and congressional oversight in the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) bailout, never mind the limits on executive pay and golden parachutes.
Congress approved 300 Billion for Subprime in July and 800 Billion two weeks ago to buy up CDOs. None of it has been spent yet, not a single homeowner has been rescued, all eyes on on the banks now.
This latest move to buy equity in failing banks is only another shot of adrenaline straight to the heart of the cancer patient.
Wrong diagnosis and wrong treatment.
Paulson and Bernake say they have the power to nationalize the banks without congressional approval. That lisping fool Barney Frank will be on ABC “This week” at 10 am this morning, let’s see him bend over for Paulson and Bernake again.
FYI folks, physical gold coins are trading at a premium that put the price around 1,100 oz, in other words you will be paying about 1,100 for a once ounce liberty dollar if you can find one anywhere.
We are headed for a long bank holiday, markets over correct and the “crisis in confidence” as it should be called is only growing.
#569 Clot – I agree with you about GM and Chrysler. And throw Ford on the heap too. The sad thing is, the people who live in the nice suburbs around Detroit and work for the car companies honest to God don’t see it! Even the thirty-something engineers don’t see it. They believe what they are told at work – that they will be just fine, this is a temporary blip. Detroit has been thru this before and will get thru this just fine. They have NO PLANS to change careers or move somewhere else. Every move they do make, like buying houses, just lashes them ever tighter to the mast. I don’t get it. I really don’t. The Detroit suburbs will become like Detroit itself – a wasteland. It gives me chills, it really does.
Good Sunday Morning America. A few minutes ago Sarah P. threw the Puck out for the Flyers game in Philly. The crowd boo and hiss lasted for about two minutes. Darn I love that town.
Reinvestor: “Let me tell you something, I will not live in a country where Omama, Nancy P and Barney form a damn liberal trifecta against loyal Americans. I will leave this damn country and won’t buy another piece of real estate here ever.”
God save me, he and I agree…
sl
“The left side of the balance sheet has nothing right and the right side of the balance sheet has nothing left. But they are equal to each other. So accounting-wise we are fine,” he told the Institute of International Finance.
[568],
Just classic.
And people “like” BO more than M. So much for electing the guy one wants as a neighbor.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/opinion/11herbert.html?em=&pagewanted=print
October 11, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
The Mask Slips
By BOB HERBERT
The lesson for Americans suffused with anxiety and dread over the crackup of the financial markets is that the way you vote matters, that there are real-world consequences when you go into a voting booth and cast that ballot.
For the nitwits who vote for the man or woman they’d most like to have over for dinner, or hang out at a barbecue with, I suggest you take a look at how well your 401(k) is doing, or how easy it will be to meet the mortgage this month, or whether the college fund you’ve been trying to build for your kids is as robust as you’d like it to be.
Voters in the George W. Bush era gave the Republican Party nearly complete control of the federal government. Now the financial markets are in turmoil, top government and corporate leaders are on the verge of panic and scholars are dusting off treatises that analyzed the causes of the Great Depression.
Mr. Bush was never viewed as a policy or intellectual heavyweight. But he seemed like a nicer guy to a lot of voters than Al Gore.
snip
“which ones of your prescient lot put your money where you mouth is?”
sister, I always do. for better or for worse.
:)
SAS
Note Seneca’s comment below
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/opinion/12dowd.html?em
Op-Ed Columnist
Are We Rome? Tu Betchus!
By MAUREEN DOWD
Published: October 11, 2008
With modernity crumbling, our thoughts turn to antiquity.
The decline and fall of the American Empire echoes the experience of the Romans, who also tumbled into the trap of becoming overleveraged empire hussies.
As our sand-castle economy washes away under the tide of bad gambles and debts, this most self-indulgent society lurches toward stoicism (even bankrupt Iceland gives us the cold shoulder and turns to a solvent superpower). It’s going to require more than giving up constant infusions of stocks, Starbucks and Botox.
As Seneca, the Roman Stoic who advised treating the body “somewhat strictly,” wrote in a letter: “Avoid whatever is approved of by the mob, and things that are the gift of chance. Whenever circumstance brings some welcome thing your way, stop in suspicion and alarm …They are snares. … we think these things are ours when in fact it is we who are caught. That track leads to precipices; life on that giddy level ends in a fall.”
snip
598 Sean
The game was last night. It was nice to see people openly communicate their feelings. :)
My brother was telling me last night that it would be a good thing to have one party rule in this country because things could get done. I asked him how much he had to drink. Things will get done, really bad things that aren’t thought out but sound nice.
OT
For any of you who contemplated going to see Killing Joke and didn’t, you missed some show. They are playing tonight and if there are tickets, you should go.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/dtcc-claims-lehman-credit-default-swap.html
From Naked Capitalism –
“DTCC Claims Lehman CDS Worries Overblown Net Payment Only $6B”
final numbers due 10/21
Anyone feeling squeezed?
http://www.app.com/article/20081012/SPECIAL/81010074&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
• 14,600 private-sector jobs were lost during the first eight months of this year.
• The unemployment rate increased from 4.2 percent in January to 5.9 percent in August. That is still below the national rate of 6.1 percent.
• New Jersey is still a very rich place. If the state were to become its own country, it would rank as the highest-income nation on Earth, followed by Luxembourg.
• New Jersey incomes are 33 percent higher than the rest of the nation, but home ownership costs are 52 percent higher.
• 377,000 moved out of New Jersey than moved into New Jersey from other parts of the nation. This does not count foreign immigration.
• The cost of living in New Jersey is about one-third higher than the rest of the United States.
• One of the fastest growing population segments is the “low-income working families.” That group is up 16 percent since 2000, and represents one in five households.
• Approximately $2 billion a year in tax revenue is lost by New Jersey under an interstate agreement with New York. New Jersey residents who work in the Empire State pay New York state taxes.
from above (Emphasis added).
bloody html tags
http://www.app.com/assets/pdf/B31198281010.PDF
N.J. PAIN Index
In Monmouth and Ocean counties, 753 foreclosed properties were sold at sheriff’s sales so far this year. Last year, 327 foreclosed properties were sold. That’s an increase of 130 percent.
Also from a sidebar above.
601 – Shore.
You have got to be kidding if you are equating Dubya with O.
In all seriousness, why would you vote for McCane?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/nations-across-globe-rolling-out-emergency/story.aspx?guid=%7B1E9EBC0E%2DE19D%2D48A6%2DA66B%2DF4C6CB8D0E6C%7D&dist=hplatest
Market Watch: 10:43AM 10/12/08
“World rolling out emergency financial moves”
Germany, France, Australia, the U.K., Arab Nations…
“which ones of your prescient lot put your money where you mouth is?”
Obviously you didn’t.
“Good Sunday Morning America. A few minutes ago Sarah P. threw the Puck out for the Flyers game in Philly. The crowd boo and hiss lasted for about two minutes. Darn I love that town.”
Sean,
That’s encouraging for SP. Santa got booed for approx 5 minutes, at the old Vet.
“In all seriousness, why would you vote for McCane?”
One thing that scares the bejeepers out oif me is the idea of Bo as president and the Dems in charge of both the House and the Senate. No matter what, the Dems will control both houses of congress in January, and may control the senate by a clotsuer-proof majority.
This will allow any boneheaded plan to fly through the congress without reasoned debate and careful consideration. Look at how congress caved to bu-sh and paulson. There will be even less reasoned debate with BO in office.
At least with M, there would need to be some give and take — which makes for better policy.
“You have got to be kidding if you are equating Dubya with O.”
I don’t think anyone here can believe that I like or respect George Herbert Hoover Bush in the least. That said, eventhough he was a poor executive in every position he ever held, he has far more executive experience than O. I just wish more people who support O would point to policy reasons, rather than a “good feeling,” for so doing.
Interesting:
http://www.app.com/article/20081012/NEWS/810120371&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
Michael Moreno had a decision to make — fast. There were only hours to go before his home was to be sold at a sheriff’s auction.
The 47-year-old Little Egg Harbor resident could lose the house — a three-bedroom, two-story Colonial that he had built in 2002 — and face homelessness with his wife and four children.
Or, he could sign a contract — without retaining a lawyer — to sell the home to buyer Robert Heath Jr. Heath’s Marlboro-based company, MGT Group, would offer to sell the home back to Moreno at a later date.
The choice seemed simple, then.
But now, Moreno says he was stripped of nearly $70,000 in equity in the February 2006 deal, and he faces eviction from the house he thought he saved. He also is one of two former homeowners suing Heath and related companies in an attempt to undo deals they claim are fraudulent.
Their attorney, Kevin Carlin of Hamilton, said the documents on the deals list transactions that never happened, a violation of federal law.
Carlin also said there are more than 40 similar real estate transactions involving Heath in the state. In the lawsuit, Carlin argues “the pattern” of activity should qualify as racketeering.
Heath’s attorney, Joseph F. Ottino Jr. of Brick, said the agreements were simply legal private con-tracts between two parties. Moreno was being evicted, Ottino said, because he is not paying rent to live in the house, as Heath had agreed.
Heath may have made money on the deals, but there’s nothing wrong with that, Ottino said.
“That’s the nature of the business,” Ottino said. “You put out money, a capital investment, and you get a return based upon the risk.”
snip
Question for the board –
I am sure that bulk of the conversation at work is revolving around 401(k)’s right now. At my work place, it is mostly people saying – “don’t look at your 401(k)’s.”. But, I have not heard people downright panicking. Have you?
I have had just one friend e-mailing me about taking a loss and moving to cash and wait for a better entry point.
Mainstream media is still talking about how better it is to weather this storm and not miss the climb up.
All these anecdotes make me feel like the bottom is not in by a mile. The blood is not in the streets as yet.
What do you guys feel?
“Towns in danger from the financial crisis”
http://realestate.msn.com/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=10857148&imageindex=4
“That said, even though he was a poor executive in every position he ever held, he has far more executive experience than O”.
– So, a man who has shown no signs of improving in spite of the chance to learn from failures is better than a man who has little experience but has shown that he has chosen to surround himself with good advisors (Volcker, for example)?
McCane, with all the experience in the world, chose VPILF as his running mate. Phil Gramm (Lord of DeRegulation) was his economic advisor prior to pissing everybody off with his “nation of whiners” comment. In the last debate, he wanted Meg Whitman of eBay to be his treasury secretary. Carly Fiorina, who was fired from HP, is one of his advisors.
McCane has no executive experience, and the way he has managed his campaign shows that he is too unstable to lead this country. Come on, implying that O is a terrorist and inciting hatefulness and frenzy in the crowd is about as disgusting and vile that a campaign can get. We have sections in the crowd yelling “Kill Him”, and we get no response from McCane until lately.
This is not how a man of honor should behave. I have completely lost respect for the man since the last week.
“We have sections in the crowd yelling Kill Him”
At the outset, let me make clear that a year ago I concluded that the person I wanted for president was Biden.
My preference for M over O is not due to great love for M’s policies; however, weighing the policies of the two, I am more in sync with M.
Had Hillary Ckinton been the Dem nominee, I would have voted for her above M.
As for your comment that, “We have sections in the crowd yelling ‘Kill Him,'” this strikes me as hyperbolic — no offense intended. Who has not been at a football game where such things were yelled? Whose mother has not said to them, “If you do that, I will kill you”? I do not accept that those statements were a call for assassination.
(621) Victorian
I know I am viewed as an unrealistic Pollyanna – and that’s okay. My posts today are very encouraging to me. We are faultering and “behind the curve” but finally moving in a direction with other nations to take us through this crisis. The crap has hit the fan and folks now know just how bad things are. The unemployment issues are only beginning, but hopefully – that can be eventually addressed as well. (Too late – like everything else – but addressed.)
No one here is panicing – everyone jokes about working longer – if that is what it will take to make up for our excesses of the past 20 years. Frugality is now in style in California.
Yes, there is no bottom until the market stops dropping..so who knows. But, I am encouraged that the mess is out in the open.
This from a poorly-paid, pension-at-risk, living -next- to -a foreclosed -house, resident of the bankrupt state…. California.
Cindy
I don’t know if I’ve asked this of you before. I know you’ve said previously you will rely on your pension. I’m just curious if CA or your district had some kind of 403b? If so, did many choose to enroll in it?
(626) Lost – I will (?) receive a small check – Ore.PERS – small check CALSTRS – to make one reasonable pension. Both are defined benefits plans.
Yes, I do a monthly deposit to a Templeton 403b and an Oppenheimer 403b (they tell you which ones you can use) so monthly dollar cost averaging. Additionally, last year, I began making monthly deposits to a Roth IRA – when I accumulate $2,500 – I put it in a CD.
Many enroll in the 403b plans – folks are looking at their statements but – from what I can tell – going the course. I work for a very conservative outfit – conservative people. Many probably made those decisions long ago, adjusted what they needed to and are basically sticking with those decisions…One comment from Friday, “If you didn’t lose it in the market – you’d be losing it to taxes.”
Lost – Are you to receive a pension? Can you enroll in a 403b? What are YOU seeing?
I did move a Vanguard Target 2005 (Thought that would be conservative) into the MM portion available in the account, earlier in September.
My thought was – With some MM, plus some CDs – I was balanced with my approach.
#576 clot: True: But it is how I am going to approach this situation.
As BC Bob ahs said falling prices in real estate is like turning around a super tanker,and I understand that.
However, after all that has happened, the super tanker should have a gaping ripped hole in its side at this point.
Cindy 627
Yes I am supposed to receive a pension. However, I don’t believe it will exist when the time comes for retirement. And that time is over 20 years away for me.
We do have a 403b that I do pay into. We do not have a choice of who manages it. It is managed by the TRS (Teacher’s Retirement System). We do have a choice of now 6 funds to allocate to. Up until a few months ago, there were 3 choices.
I recently switched the way I had the money distributed. I invest conservatively and I’m sure many would say I didn’t need to be any more conservative. But given the time I have before retirement, I can move my money around with minimal loss- I hope.
I will be honest, I try to keep money talk to a minimum at work. Most people I talk to are clueless. And I get very annoyed when people who don’t know what they’re talking about try to tell me what to do with my money. And don’t get me started on how many clueless people tried to tell me that I *needed* to buy a house over the last 5 years. I would say “Thanks so much for telling me what to do with my money”. Now when I see them, I’m sorry, I gloat for being right.
Yes, the world was one huge carry trade. The carry is kaput. Ask Mrs Wantabe.
I’m off to hear some pigs squeal.
“Millions of households have been operating just like hedge funds for a long time,” said Brent Wilson, analyst with Reochronicle.com, a Web site tracking foreclosed homes, describing how ever-increasing debt financed the doubling or tripling of house prices in many areas that have now deflated.
“They borrowed ever-increasing amounts of money to finance an asset whose price depends on borrowing ever-increasing amounts of money. The financial profile of hedge funds and millions of households is almost identical,” he said. Now, “the financial sector is on its knees, since they financed the speculation.”
“But the problem was not confined to real estate, he said. “The fact is that the whole economy to some extent has been operating like a hedge fund for a long time – households, corporations, state governments, Wall Street, cities” – all leveraging assets like real estate to finance a spending binge, he said.”
http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/oct/12/global-creditors-end-us-spending-spree/
Ref 620. Ive heard two kinds of reactions. The first is from the people who think this is a normal downturn and if you can afford it, buy, if not, wait it out. I actually know someone who bought a house in 2006 near Tampa and thinks in a few years, everything will be all right. The other reaction is from people who are close to retirement and have seen their 401k halve. Their plan is to keep on working because they don’t have the time horizon to wait for the up turn that will restore their wealth.
Guess the board calmed down over the weekend. As the market was crumbling like Tom Brady’s knee, the end of last week was equal parts comedy and terrifying in these waters.
nothing like a 3-day weekend to curb the gun and gold talk.
we’re off to an open house here in bucks county. we’ll buying in 6 months when our rental lease expires, but it doesn’t hurt to see what’s out there.
looks like everybody is getting in on this financial crisis!!!
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081012151913.899p7n58&show_article=1&lst=1
BC Bob 616
I remember the Vet Stadium fans booing one of Phillies kids for striking out in a father-son exhibition. The kid was maybe 4 years old…
Vic – My work constituency is wealthy Wall Streeters and retirees. Co-workers have basic 403b’s.
The Wall Streeters are worried (of course, some of them were Lehman and lost jobs) but not yet in a frenzy. The retirees are beginning to feel a prickle of fear but most of them think this will pass.
Younger co-workers are in their mid twenties. They don’t seem to care, except for the worry that they will have to work harder this year – most of them are pretty spoiled and don’t know what a real recession looks like. They are still getting their nails done.
My boss is concerned. He gave me a lecture about missing the bottom in the housing market a month ago. Now he wanted to know a bit more about what I am doing with my money (I reorganized our 401k’s to very conservative positions to ride out the market drop). He didn’t want to move away from stocks because he was afraid to miss a rebound – which he thinks is coming. He also has real estate investments. He is concerned, thinks he will have to work a bit longer, but not in a panic.
Actually, if the CDS markets was done pari-mutuel style we have no problem, maybe we should start one!!
In regards to 401Ks people overreact. If one put in 200K with a 50% match they would have 300K and if done over 20 years it would have doubled to 600K. However, they only put in 200K before tax and if they were in the 40% tax bracket they only really put in 120K. So their 600K 401k losing 50% to 300K aint that big a deal. Plus if you took that 120K into income over the years it would be gone on some home improvements, cars and vacations.
Clotpoll Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:38 am
John (468)-
In the mechanics, you are completely correct. In that respect, I used a bad analogy.
However, in the attitude of the “investors”, it is pari-mutuel all the way. A big horse race of a proposition…albeit one in which many companies that wrote the “insurance” thought they’d never, ever have to pay up. Money for nothing, as it were.
BTW I think that was bottom at 3pm on Friday. Everyone I talked to who still has money on sidelines wants to buy this week if it stablizes. They are not entering buy orders at open on Monday but if it stablizes and starts to slowly move up they are all jumping in.
“As for your comment that, “We have sections in the crowd yelling ‘Kill Him,’” this strikes me as hyperbolic — no offense intended. Who has not been at a football game where such things were yelled? ”
No offense taken, I always enjoy civil disagreements.
My point was – it is common in football games, but there has never been such an instance in a political environment in the U.S. (Please correct me if I am wrong). There is a vast difference between who wins a football game vs who wins the right to govern the country. How many football players have been assassinated vs political leaders? zero??
I was born in a country, which has seen 2 prime ministers assassinated and have seen the effects of a mob whipped into a frenzy.
Last Friday U.S. banking giants. JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM) led the group with a 14% jump, with Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) checking in with gains of 9.1% and 6.3%, respectively. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), which emerged as the winner for Wachovia Corp. (WB) after Citigroup took itself out of the running, rose 3.9% while Wachovia surged 43%. General Electric Co. (GE), which hit a fresh 11-year low in early trading after reporting its third-quarter results that met lowered expectations, rallied to the close and finished up 13%. It ended the week flat.
Also seeing big gains were real estate-related firms. Services provider CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. (CBG) surged 28%; it’s still down 32% for the past month.
Other financial sectors that have seen heavy sell-offs over the past week include regional banks and insurance firms exposed to the debt and stock markets. Investors are worried regional banks won’t be able to handle the financial crisis as well as their larger counterparts – especially given that the large banks, for the most part, are struggling with it.
But most regional banks rose Friday, with Regions Financial Corp. (RF) leading the way with a 20% rally. However, embattled National City Corp. (NCC), which spent the morning slightly up, turned lower as the day went on and finished down 7%. Thursday, The Wall Street Journal said the bank has put itself on the block.
AT THE DEPTHS OF THE 1973-74 BEAR MARKET — the worst of the post-war period — when the Dow Jones industrial average was approaching its low of 577, Warren Buffett told Forbes magazine that he felt like “an oversexed guy in a whorehouse. This is the time to start investing.”
John-
Japan has still not found the bottom, 20 years in. We are in a secular bear market now and will see bear market rallies. I do believe (hope) that we have seen a short term bottom as all technicals point to that conclusion, and did take some long positions on Friday.
“secular bear market” ???????????
Victorian,
India, or Pakistan, perchance?
A secular market trend is a long-term trend that usually lasts 5 to 25 years (but whose distribution is more or less bell shaped around 17 years, in the stock market), and consists of sequential ‘primary’ trends. In a secular bull market the ‘primary’ bear markets have in the past almost always been shorter and less punishing than the ‘primary’ bull markets were rewarding. Each bear market has rarely (if ever) wiped out the real (inflation adjusted) gains of the previous bull markets, and the succeeding bull markets have usually made up for the real losses of any previous bear markets. This is one of the reasons why a secular market trend may be said to encompass the primary trends within it. In a secular bear market, the ‘primary’ bull markets are sometimes shorter than the ‘primary’ bear markets and rarely compensate for the real losses of the ‘primary’ bear markets occurring during this extended cycle.
For example, in the 1966 – 82 secular bear market in stocks, there was hardly any nominal loss. But in real terms the loss was devastating. (In the past most ‘housing recessions’ were of a slow nature, thereby allowing inflation to keep housing prices steady.) Another example of a secular bear market was seen in gold during the period between January 1980 to June 1999. During this period the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g),[7] and became part of the Great Commodities Depression. The S&P 500 experienced a secular bull market over a similar time period (~1982 – 2000).[8]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trends
“Who is Henry Paulson?”
http://tinyurl.com/4e5vw3
“Two More Banks Closed by Regulators”
http://tinyurl.com/3hs5a6
Shore –
India. Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were assassinated. However, race was not the reason.
“Financial crisis: Countries at risk of bankruptcy from Pakistan to Baltics
A string of countries face the risk of “going bust” as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world’s most dangerous spots”
http://tinyurl.com/49jrnj
John, you’re nuts if you think that was the bottom on Friday. absolutely out of your mind. I enjoy some of your rants, and sometimes I even miss your humor. Perhaps that is what this is.
Does someone want to remind John about the Alt-A foreclosures that will be hitting in early 09?
John, did you notice that the 700 bazillion dollar bailout was so poorly crafted that they’re ALREADY RE-WORKING IT? These people have no idea what they are doing. it is a three stooges act.
“Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were assassinated”
Yes, indeed.
Open House recap:
It was a new listing, 4/2.5 with no basement, but an additional sun room, which doubled as a family room/basement, as it was big enough for a ping-pong/pool table combo and a huge flat screen.
Backyard is up against preserved land, which we like (but the lot is only .25 an acre). The kitchen needed a massive upgrade, and the entire first level just didn’t excite us.
The master bathroom was a complete joke. Didn’t even have a door – it was like a cheap vanity. Well, there was a door to the toilet and shower, which were practically on top of each other.
They’re the initial owners, and have lived there for 25 years. They’re asking 425k, and i can’t imagine they’ll get that. If i had any interest in the house – i don’t – i might offer 325k or 350k.
Agent seemed nice … until she thought that Bucks County was “insulated” and mentioned the proximity to NYC and Philly. I countered with, ‘we have an agent sending us foreclosure listings each week, and I’m actually surprised there haven’t been more.’
We were the first to show up (gotta watch NFL games) and three other couples were in there in the first 30 minutes.
From a BBC e-mail alert:
“Heads of 15 European states agree on a joint financial rescue plan guaranteeing inter-bank loans, French President Nicolas Sarkozy says. “
About 10 days ago, I sent a memo to some of the top Mc-Ca-in people and told them that the campaign was “going down in flames” and urged them to make some tax cuts that would truely benefit the middle class. Amongst others, I urged that they propose exempting from tax the first $20,000 in interest, dividand, and capital gains. There was more but, this is the most important proposal.
A few minutes ago, I sheard that M is about to announce a major change in taxes. Let’s see if they took anything from the memo.
653 Shore
I’m curious to see if they’ve listened to your reasoning.
Lost,
I hold out little hope but we will see. My point to them was that the current tax law punishes low and middle income savers. One puts a few dollars into the bank, one gets less-than-inflationary interest rates and then pays taxes on the small interest return. By doing so, and taxing the first dollar of dividands, and small capital gains, it discourages savings, which hurts banks balance sheets AND makes it less likely that people will have bucks in reserve for bad times. It also encourages the practice of spend, spend, spend, which only encourages over spending and taking on too much debt.
“It also encourages the practice of spend, spend, spend, which only encourages over spending and taking on too much debt.”
– Barney Frank and other idiots are still talking about boosting consumption. We are now like heroin addicts looking for another fix. Until these people understand the problem, they wont be able to fix it. Liquidity is not the issue, solvency is. The plain truth is let capitalism work – the money will flow to the strong and the weak will die.
Actually savings is worse for the the rich. Someone making 40K may pay zero percent on cap gains on stock, bonds and RE and only pays 15% on interest income plus they can buy AMT tax free munis that pay higher yields. The poor folk have more reasons to save.
My point to them was that the current tax law punishes low and middle income savers. One puts a few dollars into the bank, one gets less-than-inflationary interest rates and then pays taxes on the small interest return. By doing so, and taxing the first dollar of dividands, and small capital gains, it discourages savings, which hurts banks balance sheets AND makes it less likely that people will have bucks in reserve for bad times. It also encourages the practice of spend, spend, spend, which only encourages over spending and taking on too much debt.
I propose a 5K tax credit for those who open a five year cd at a money center bank and a 5K tax credit for people who buy an american car that gets over 30mpg. Lets make savers, spenders and tree huggers happy all at once while saving the economy.
I am a bull as my taxable account is all bonds and I only care in that account that govt is working hard to keep banks and such from going bankrupt. I am a bull in my 401K stock account as I have 20 years to retirement and I rather buy low for the next 20 years and sell high the 20 years of retirement than the other way around.
Puerto Rico bonds due in July 2038, paying tax-exempt interest for U.S. taxpayers, fell as low as 81.5 cents on the dollar today to yield 7.58 percent. That’s more than 22 cents lower in price and more than 200 basis points higher in yield than when they were first sold a month ago.
655 Shore
I agree completely. And I also agree with Victorian in 656. We are like junkies looking for a fix. Withdrawal is not pretty, not matter what the fix. The problem here is the powers that be don’t want us to get clean because they never looked at this spending lunacy as a bonus. They counted on it as one would count on their regular income. The people in government who should have been prepared, weren’t. And they wonder why citizens have no confidence in their government.
So – how do we think Gen Y will handle a major recession?
Re: living in Bucks and Princeton area
Princeton mailing address or zip 08540 is huge area, but be very careful where you select within the zip. Very different. To answer the question, Princeton prices higher b/c of being in boro. S. Bruns and Plainsboro do not equate. Living in boro has lots of conveniences and community that you do not get with the other towns on the east side of Route One. Be sure to check out differences in Lawrenceville schools vs. Princeton and/or S. Brunswick and/or W. Windsor/Plainsboro. Big difference.
Bucks has many pros that many over look. Easier to commute from Trenton to NYC from lower bucks towns than it is from Princeton in some regard. But make no mistake, commute is 1.75 hrs+ door to door. I refused to do it more than 1x per week and I worked in mid-town.
Shore Guy,
Dude, you are not only scary, but dangerous. Pls, turn ON the lights up above your neck. Racism is not an option.
For the sake of my children, I hope, I really hope nobody hears you. I’m afraid of the future of our country with people like you.
You are dead wrong, but God bless you.
HC
653#, shore, M needs to do two things at the same time: 1) more specific on economic policies; 2) keep attacking O’s association with Wright and Ayers and etc. Don’t be a nice guy in last 24 days.
About 10 days ago, I sent a memo to some of the top Mc-Ca-in people and told them that the campaign was “going down in flames” and urged them to make some tax cuts that would truely benefit the middle class. Amongst others, I urged that they propose exempting from tax the first $20,000 in interest, dividand, and capital gains. There was more but, this is the most important proposal.
A few minutes ago, I sheard that M is about to announce a major change in taxes. Let’s see if they took anything from the memo.
662 Lisoosh
Very badly. But since mommy and daddy will shelter them from reality, they may not need to handle it all. Its a non-issue.
“Happy Camper Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Shore Guy,
Dude, you are not only scary, but dangerous. Pls, turn ON the lights up above your neck. Racism is not an option”
And how does racism apply to me, may I ask?
The Federal Reserve said Sunday it approved the takeover of Wachovia and its banking subsidiaries by Wells Fargo of San Francisco.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27151514
re: #662 a Billy Joel song comes to mind.
So you got everything, ah, but nothing’s cool
They just found your father in the swimming pool
And you guess you won’t be going back to school
Anymore.
So you play your albums, and you smoke your pot
and you meet your girlfriend in the parking lot
Oh but still you’re aching for the things you haven’t got
What went wrong?
And if you can’t understand why your world is so dead,
why you’ve got to keep in style and feed your head
Well you’re 21 and still your mother makes your bed,
And that’s too long
Sean,
Some other Billy Joel lyrics that could go along with the bozos who have mucked-up things so badly, seemingly whilst lacking a clue is: So you had to be a big shot did you?
Hoboken condos are still selling above asking prices. Where is the recession? where’s the gloom and doom?
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=3a55c485-c33a-4d57-9769-876117920376&Report=Yes
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=06c633d8-277c-4db8-95da-368c3de03fd3&Report=Yes
As applies to our current economic mess, via Robert Johnson:
“It’s the last fair deal goin’ down, last fair deal goin’ down
It’s the last fair deal goin’ down, good lord”
And, just for Hank Paulson:
“Me and the Devil
was walkin’ side by side
Me and the Devil, ooh
was walkin’ side by side”
Hoboken condos have appreciated 100% since 2005. The housing boom lives on!!
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=9b27abb3-1d6b-4111-b16e-13271a4ae8af&Report=Yes
Asian markets open soon, no? It will be interesting to see what happens here if Asia and europe go down the next two days. For folks over here it may be a queasy feeling the next 36 hours.
Frank,
535 sq.ft., umm, umm, umm, that’s room to spread out.
Sean (598)-
Hell, they booed Santa Claus.
CLot,
Of course they did. He didn’t bring Cheez Whiz for the cheese steaks.
interesting guy on tv said 50% of retail sales come from top 10% of income. So giving tax rebates to the bottom 90% paid for by the top 10% is a zero sum game.
Happy camper-
you dont sound so happy.
Frank,
what was that listing supposed to show?
that guy bought it for 320 in 2006, he’s asking 345. Point?
“interesting guy on tv said 50% of retail sales come from top 10% of income.”
And, what percentage of taxes come from those of us in the upper 5-10%? I seem to recall it is something on the order of 75%. If someone has the figures, please post them.
I would like to see a stimulus package focused on those who are debt free. Since we have managed our finances well already, it makes sense to entrust us with some serious cash to invest for the betterment of the nation perhaps in multi-family rental units. It would probably cost less to direct $500,000 to those of us who have done the right things for years than to throw good money after bad in other plans.
Oh, Happy Camper, I accept that you may not like that idea.
vic (622)-
They are both clowns. Both are completely bought and paid for, and the contest between the two is a sheeple show, staged only for the purpose of obfusc@ting the daylight robbery of our Treasury.
3b (628)-
I wasn’t disparaging your choice. To me, it is the obvious play, if the #1 item on your list is getting the most house at the best price.
“that guy bought it for 320 in 2006, he’s asking 345. Point?”
Stan,
Frank does not have a point. He’s clueless.
Baristanet links to NJREREPORT!
Let’s Make A Deal!
Friday, October 10, 2008
On the market for a new home? This may be your lucky week. From NJrereport.com
One of the largest U.S. real estate brokerages on Monday said it is asking its sellers to cut listing prices by as much as 10 percent to kick-start U.S. home sales in a market plagued by a two-year price slump and near-record unsold supply.
Coldwell Banker Real Estate said some 25,000 sellers listing homes with its brokers will cut prices during its first national, 10-day sales event starting on Friday that aims to lure potential buyers off the sidelines of the worst housing market since the Great Depression.
Randy Lipkin at Coldwell Banker’s Caldwell office told us the response from homeowners trying to move their properties has been phenomenal. “There are 39 homes listed in our office with the sale price cut, 738 throughout New Jersey.”
However none of the Coldwell listings in Montclair or Glen Ridge have reduced their prices. The reason, said a realtor who asked not to be named: homes in those towns have been moving and properties are well priced.
http://www.baristanet.com/2008/10/selling_your_house_drop_the_pr.php
yikes (632)-
Hey, I’ll be locked and loaded overnight, watching Asia. Got my hands on a little physical over the weekend, and now my mind is right to focus once again on the decline of Western civilization and how best to fade the next sucker rally.
The big wave of endless selling has not hit yet. The curbs have not once kicked in. Therefore, there will be more pain.
I want to buy, but I’m going short yet again.
673#, shore, for now futures market points at least 4% higher open tomorrow but it could change in seconds.
I like shore’s idea. Give every American with no debt and five solid years of dependable personal finance history (regardless of race, education, etc.) a couple of the RTC2 properties. Re-privatize this stuff as soon as possible.
Each person with no debt who provides documentation of 7 years of on-time utility payments, docs paying off a car loan, etc., receives up to five properties to manage for a maximum of fifteen years. At the end of the period or sale date, if earlier, the properties are sold, with the proceeds split between Uncle and the person (tax free).
Anyone who shares an address with a parental taxpayer is ineligible.
Gator (685)-
Almost all the Clodwell Boner listings in my area reduced less than 5% for the “sale”.
Yawn. Not worth one ounce of gas to visit this stale, overpriced crap.
Move on, nothing to see here.
Pat (688)-
You have a better chance of seeing medical marijuana being given away by the gubmint on streetcorners.
The gubmint- O and Mc- have a price on your head…and on the head of every member of the rapidly-shrinking middle class. They are going to take every penny we have and use it to declare themselves fiat leaders for life.
Then tell us we’re better off for it.
Sadly, most of us zombies will nod our heads and agree.
Clot 689 – Sorry posted quickly and didn’t add any sarcastic comments. I loved the quote from our local Montclair-Glen Ridge realtor that our listings weren’t reduced because our properties have been moving and are priced well. I call BS. There are tons of listings here that have been sitting for months.
Also, Baristanet is our local self important place blog. It’s mainly a place for local gossip and mostly worthless drivel.
My husband and daughter went to Chuckie Cheese’s today, while I went to Ross.
It was, once again, impossible to buy a lousy tote bag because of the crowds. All Spanish speaking, cash sales.
The roads down here in MD were filled again. You’d think somebody just lowered the price of gas.
She just walked up to me and showed me what she picked out with her tickets.
A Shell Game.
Frank,
Have you strolled through Hoboken lately? Today I noticed that in front of all the realtors they have those boards showing what’s “available”. Normally they would always list stuff for sale on weekends. Now they are just listing stuff for rent.
Also, a total of 3 condos went under contract last week. At that rate, there is currently 2 years of inventory.
Clot, I’m not looking for blood in the streets. I want to tell John to suck his bonds like a Charm Pop.
I’m twitching to buy this week.
yay! Cowboys lose!
ShoreGuy—#617
You said: “One thing that scares the bejeepers out oif me is the idea of Bo as president and the Dems in charge of both the House and the Senate. No matter what, the Dems will control both houses of congress in January, and may control the senate by a clotsuer-proof majority.
“This will allow any boneheaded plan to fly through the congress without reasoned debate and careful consideration. Look at how congress caved to bu-sh and paulson. There will be even less reasoned debate with BO in office.
“At least with M, there would need to be some give and take — which makes for better policy.”
And then, in a later post, you say that you told M his campaign was going down in flames (which it is). Good grief, it’s not like he hasn’t done it before. If he can’t run a decent campaign—or even make an intelligent choice about a running-mate— why do you have such faith in his ability to be chief executive?
S&P futures up 4%.
Clot – Looks like you are going to get your wish.
some clown in hoboken is asking 25k more than he bought for two years ago and that means his place has gone up in value?
frank, where’d you learn math, man?
Elmer Fudd?
Victorian Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 11:06 am
Question for the board – I am sure that bulk of the conversation at work is revolving around 401(k)’s right now. At my work place, it is mostly people saying – “don’t look at your 401(k)’s.”. But, I have not heard people downright panicking. Have you?
What do you guys feel?
Vic: I get to talk to a big stratefied swath of people. The amount of panic is directly related to whether their employers have laid anyone off, and also when those layoffs came, was fat cut, or bone and muscle.
For those of the %ucking rich variety and are not working. If the money was self-made, then they tend to be relatively level-headed. If they inherited the money, then they are scared, because these people have no idea how to make money in the first place.
“what was that listing supposed to show?”
I sold one of those condos for 200K in 2005.
200K to 360K that’s a nice appreciation in 3 years. Housing boom live on.
Frank-you are an idiot no condo in hoboken sold for 200k in 2005. if you sold it for 200k, you are even more of an idiot. May God have mercy on your soul, and get off the dial up, your mom needs to make a call.
3pm last friday was 2008 bottom, face it.
“I sold one of those condos for 200K in 2005.”
Frank,
Did you receive any votes for the sale of the century? 200K, 2005, in Hoboken? What did you sell, a taxi medallion?
John, my gut agrees with you. Maybe it was the papaya chutney.
But I’m goin wabbit huntin.
Shore,
we ain’t gona debate your support for the status quo. The status quo got us into this mess and they won’t get us out of it.
You claim that a democrat president is not good because he would have a democrat congress.
It has been evident, beyond a human being reasonable doubt, that the current administration has not been good and has brought us to the brink.
What other argument then, besides racism, you get on to attack an O administration? He has not even won and you are already attacking him.
Dude, stand up. Rome is burning and simpleton, oh, I don’t like O, ain’t gonna do no good to nobody.
HC
Gator (691)-
If everything’s selling so well, why the need to play into the marketing of the big “sale” at all?
Your local Clubfoot Bunco could’ve had their own marketing week, devoted to keeping the asking prices of their listings at their old levels.
Pat (694)-
At least wait out one pop. The first rally is, for sure, of the sucker variety.
The new low will have to be tested and retested like a virgin head cheerleader.
John (702)-
“3pm last friday was 2008 bottom, face it.”
Yeah, right. And we know that won’t be tested at all. Sheesh.
Stick to bonds and bean-counting.
Clot,
Like I told my MIL, the market is gonna be testing more new bottoms than Richard Simmons at a Halloween night 0rgy.
sl
sl (709)-
Let the metaphor war begin!
Nikkei down 10%. Mrs. Watanabe is choking on her breakfast sushi.
Here’s John’s theory, I think.
Speed is ramped. Rules out. Don’t chart in the devils triangle. He’s saying that the pop will last until December.
This could happen. Retail will prolly show up in Oct.
Just for shits and giggles, hubby and I went to the open house down the road. 5 BR 5 1/2 bath otherwise SMALL, granite countertop, Viking stove, etc etc etc
All for……$1.995M. Open house 1-4. We showed up at 3:55 pm.
We were the #2 on the sign in sheet….
I wanted to sign in as, Mr&Mrs.Nottabagholder….. but I wanted to be kind…
The two REs there looked hapless.
sl
Clot, Nikkei is closed today.That was beautiful Friday.
I need to come down off my chutney high.
vic (714)-
Can’t a guy dream?
I didn’t know you could put hash in chutney.
Oh? Once the mixture starts to get that nice glaze, turn down the heat and add whatever you want.
Singapore open slightly up.
Add to cream cheese, for a wonderful spread.
(718)-
Sounds like a recipe for homemade plastique.
This stuff would work. The roof of my mouth is gone. Burnt off.
I’ve been trying to dull the pain of an infected hand.
Man, that cat got you good.
If that was my cat, I’d shoot it.
“Gold runs out in German rush”
http://tinyurl.com/3wgjr4
“3pm last friday was 2008 bottom, face it.”
Bottom pickers? Well,Fannie/Freddie was also a bottom, as was Bear. In addition to this, Bergabe’s .75 panic cut, rogue trader, was another botttom. Come to think of it, every bear market rally seems to constitute a bottom. Today’s bottom pickers, tomorrow’s sellers? Historically, bottom pickers have zero conviction. However, they do provide a service, allowing bears to sell at much higher prices.
Patriots not looking good. SD ahead.
HC
Stan,
It took 300 showings and 6 months to sell my place in 2005 for 200K. Now they are selling in weeks for 370K. The RE market is still on fire regardless of what BC Bob and Clotpoll says.
sas (725)-
Think last week was nuts? Wait ’til the paper gold market fails. Who can deliver in this environment?
Damn good idea to be holding the physical.
“. If he cant run a decent campaignor even make an intelligent choice about a running-mate why do you have such faith in his ability to be chief executive?”
I don’t. What I have, after looking at BO’s proposals, is a belief that he would be worse. This is hold my nose time, and vote for the lesser of the bad choices. That these two is what our system offers us is a discrace.
“Global auto market may “collapse” in 2009: J.D.Power”
http://tinyurl.com/4yuw5t
“Damn good idea to be holding the physical”
yup. I’ve always thought people wanted to have metals in their hot little hands.
a firearm would be a good idea too. after proper safety training & if children get a instant access pistol safe.
SAS
i think I’m going to yack!!
“The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It”
http://tinyurl.com/yrxrsh
Shore (730)-
I’m done voting. It is a disgrace, and I won’t be complicit in accepting the daylight robbery of my country. Choose between a card-carrying Soci@list or an addled old man who will say or do anything? Pass on that.
I’ll vote with lead, if and when the time comes.
sas (731)-
When the global car market collapses, does that mean Cuba will be declared a superpower?
“What other argument then, besides racism, you get on to attack an O administration? He has not even won and you are already attacking him”
Happy Camper,
First off, I have attacked nobody. I did not attack O, and I did not attack you. I do not attack people in the physical world and I do not attack people in the cyber world.
Now, for one to assert that another person cannot disagree with O’s policy positions, or express concern with O’s lack of executive experience, strikes this citizen as a less-than-sophisticated bit of analysis/thinking. I mean no offense but to link disagreement with O’s positions as racism is weak reasoning at best.
Sure their are racists who disagree with O. But, that does not make every person who disagrees with him racist.
Unlike, I suspect, many of his acolytes, I have actually looked at the ramifications of many of his policies and I do not like what I see. He has not fleshed-out many of them and wants people to trust in the change he proposes to bring. Just remember, this is the same line bush used in 2000 — I did not buy it then and I don’t buy it now.
Support him if you will. Send him money if you want. If he wins, I hope he is a success. That said, I dearly hope he does not win and I am doing what I can to ensure he loses.
Omama & songbird McStain…
2 heads of same snake. Put in place by the corporate & financial elite to do their bidding and make you think you have a choice.
Don’t forget the snakes in Congress.
SAS
“Clotpoll Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Shore (730)-
I’m done voting”
Make up your mind. Then, you are gonna go around the world, bombing and killing people around the world them telling them how great Democracy is.
So, is voting a great thing or it is isn’t?
“They hate us for our freedom” …W said.
Shore would tell you how awful is having other than W as president.
HC
and for you Omama lovers out there,
ask yourself, symbol vs. substance?
“change”
lol.
where are the windup dolls??
SAS
Shore,
unfortunately I have to agree. Your comments are not racist.
You maybe misguided, but not racist. I have no basis on which to accuse you of it.
HC
736—Shore:
Okay. You’ve made your stance about this election abundantly clear. Therefore, you’ll have no need to repeat it between now and election day. Just sayin’.
HC,
No offense intended but, I cannot make out a cogent statement in that last post to which I could possibly answer.
You seem to have mistaken someone elses views for mine. So be it. It really does not matter. Like I said, if you want to support O, go for it. Just don’t be so simple minded to believe that every person who opposes BO is a racist.
Camper (738)-
Lost you on that one. I did, however, note your attempt to set up another silly straw man argument vs Shore.
Peace,
I simply responded to pointed assertions by others.
Just received this in my inbox from a realtor:
We’re all in this together.
In these uncertain times, I’d like to share my thoughts and address concerns you may have about our local real estate market. I’ve included links to interesting articles that you may find helpful and of course I’m available if you’d like to discuss your own personal needs confidentially.
1. Foreclosures, and Pre-Foreclosures: There have been laws put in place to help people who need to sell with upside down mortgages. Three recent Real Estate laws that every homeowner, buyer or seller should be aware of
2. Life Goes On….. Our towns are the first really beautiful towns with excellent public schools off of the direct train line into NYC, and Manhattanites who don’t want to pay for private school, want a yard and some more space will still move out to the suburbs. We don’t have an endless supply of inventory like other parts of the country, so even in tough times, there is still a demand for great houses in great locations (as long as they are priced competitively). Buying a home is a long term investment.
3. If you’re currently renting, can put 20% or more down, have stellar credit, and a steady job, you’re golden.
4. Move-Up Buyers are in a great position because if the market has dropped 10% in a given town, then the loss you’re taking on the sell side will be less than what you’re saving on the buy side.
5. Sell First. This way, if you’re counting on a certain amount of equity from your current home, you won’t have any surprises. For a long term investment, it may even make sense to rent out your current house and hold onto it as an investment. We can discuss your options.
6. Current Home Owners with ARM mortgages: You may want to call your mortgage company to discuss fixed rate options.
7. I’m happy to send the pdfs for the following articles: “Taking The Mystery Out Of Credit”, Top 10 Do’s and “Don’ts During The Loan Process”, and “How Good Credit Transfers Into Lower Scores” Unfortunately this primitive blast email system doesn’t allow attachments.
sas (737)-
Exactly. The most elaborate sheeple show ever concocted.
Gator,
Just remember, “It is always a great time to buy.”
Gator (745)-
Got a virus you can send that agent?
Hang Seng slightly positive.
Anyone hear of any school districts, boros, towns, or counties making moves to reduce their budget?
re: Shore, Cot, Sas, et all,
but, aren’t we all against 3rd parties?
HC
“Hang Seng slightly positive”
Has it been following our pattern of going off a cliff at the end of the day?
Anyone who feels the bottom is in – Please look at this chart.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SPKbc9n6TxI/AAAAAAAAF-Y/xbxrr4m7u_I/s1600-h/InfDji200_0810.png
HC,
I would never presume to say what you or are for or against. I for one would like a brighr leader, who is competent with respect to economics, foreign relations, and is a budget hawk, regardless of party.
“Theyre stlll playing soccer with Ceaucescus head”
Clot,
Isn’t there an Afghan game like that? Except it is on horseback.
750 Shore – But what about the children? ; )
Phil Gramm is McCane’s lead economic adviser. Gramm spearheaded the efforts to remove regulation from derivatives trading. That alone is reason enough for me to support the O man. Quite honestly, I think they are both pretty weak. Actually, I can’t think of a single individual in either party who is decent.
@754 Shore,
Do not wish to enter into a battle. Yes, you are correct. A bright leader…..when was the last time we had one?
I worry about my children and that is why I worry about this presidential election. I really do not want a moron as a prez, I really don’t.
HC
$10,266,382,646,543.62
Nice public debt figure. &nd this is before spending the $700,000,000,000 bailout.
Nice work folks.
# John Says:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
3pm last friday was 2008 bottom, face it.
Jim Cramer has spoken! I see you’ve tweaked it. I predict it’ll touch 7500 by 2.1.09
HC,
Clinton was sharp as a tack. Unfortunately, he had a zipper problem that got in his way. TR was smart as was Wilson. FDR was politically astute. Nixon was smart as heck but such a damaged personality. Carter was also smart but not astute with respect to politics; I hated him as president, and eagerly voted against him, but would love to have him as a neighbor or senator.
Stu,
Graham is, I agree, a putz.
oops, gramm, even
I think Graham invented the cracker as well as the telephone.
Stu,
Don’t use the word cracker. Someone might take offense.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27121535/
Mr. O’bama will cause numerous problems for this country beyond what we already have. People were saying 20 years ago that we would become the India of the West. I believe we are now there. In fact, India may be in better shape than we are at this point. We had a good run while it lasted. Would the last to leave please turn out the lights?