Fri 24 Oct 2008
Anecdote for history buffs.
Today marks the 79th anniversary of the official start of the Crash of ‘29. Black Thursday, which took place on October 24th, 1929, was the first phase of the three phases which defined the Great Crash.
Strap in, it is going to be a wild ride. Dow and S&P futures are currently trading “limit down”, the maximum daily amount permitted. The Nikkei fell over 800 points last night (nearly 10 percent), European stocks fell more than 7% and the Russians have halted trading until Tuesday.
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did greenie have a moment of clarity when he admitted he was a tad wrong?
Perhaps there should be term limits on Fed Board members since their actions or inactions can have very strong consequences.
Too bad most of congress were greenie’s groupies when he was in charge for 20 years. Now the crisis has hit they are trying to look good kicking him when we’re down and he’s out.
Congress, 5 years or more late, as usual.
Panic is back. DJIA futures down 550
Futures trading limit down. Asian markets destroyed overnight. Bloodbath in Europe at the open. Today may be the day.
Gartman of Squawk, calling current situation “madness”. Also giving props to Roubini for nailing the call.
Gotta think some hedgies will just close the door and walk away for good today. The forced selling is going to be insane.
Stu,
Today will be our kill shot. I’ve been waiting for this a long, long time.
When we get a camera shot of Cramer, covered in flop sweat, proclaiming all is lost…that’s the time to cover.
What will the PPT do, pre-open? 50 bps cut? Giant money bomb? Both?
Some sort of skulduggery is gonna happen. We’ve been here before.
Then again, what purpose do hedge funds really serve? They are completely unnecessary.
At the back end of this, the people in the US who remain rich will be way too smart to be sucked into the scam.
Your daily dose of investment advice stupidity. THe market may have already priced in some of the bad news but its a drop in the bucket compared to what’s coming.
“If you watch Fast Money regularly you know that on October 13th Oppenheimer chief market strategist told the traders the market had bottomed. Now he’s telling us “Just as it was right to be cautious and careful for months now it’s time to take the other side. Here’s the adage that I would apply. Force yourself to sell extreme strength and force yourself to buy extreme weakness.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27340231
Next Year’s Paycheck Looks Safe — if Your Job Survives
by Sarah E. Needleman
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Workers worried that the nation’s economic turmoil will mean they’ll receive a slim merit increase in 2009 — or none at all — might be able to breathe a sigh of relief. A study to be released Thursday by consulting firm Mercer LLC shows that employers don’t expect to make major changes to next year’s salary budgets, which were mapped out in April.
But on the flip side, employers plan to trim their work forces, cut back on hiring and reduce bonus payouts, if they haven’t yet done so. “They’re focusing on the survivors,” says Steve Gross, a global practice leader at Mercer.
Earlier this month, the New York firm looked at 2009 salary-budget projections for 190 midsize and large U.S. firms with a total of 2.8 million employees and average annual revenue of $5 billion. The majority — 58% — said they haven’t changed their budget projections from April; 24% said they have, but plan to reduce their budgets by only one-half of a percentage point. Surprisingly, 18% said they expect to increase their budgets from the spring by one-tenth of a percentage point.
Overall, employers said they expect to boost salaries for all workers in 2009 by an average of 3.6%, Mercer says. This is down slightly from the 3.7% average increase employers said they expected to give workers in a larger survey Mercer conducted in April. Respondents in that study included 1,039 midsize and large U.S. firms with a total of more than 12 million employees and average annual revenue of $5.9 billion.
Mercer’s latest findings are similar to those in new studies also to be released Thursday from Hewitt Associates Inc., in Lincolnshire, Ill., and Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc., in Arlington, Va. Both firms say the majority of employers they surveyed earlier this month reported no changes to their 2009 salary-budget projections, and show salaries rising on average by 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively. When Hewitt and Watson conducted similar studies in the spring, both of which included larger respondent pools, salaries were expected to increase slightly more, by 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively.
But while merit increases may hold steady in 2009, workers are likely to feel the brunt of the sour economy in other ways. Mercer’s study shows that 37% of employers are planning or contemplating staff reductions and that 30% already have made cuts.
Mercer’s Mr. Gross says layoffs make sense for firms that don’t have enough work to go around and don’t expect business to return to normal for at least another 12 months. Reducing payrolls would likely outweigh the costs of training replacement workers after that much time has passed, he says.
Bonus pay is expected to be reduced. Employers plan to give out smaller year-end bonuses tied to company performance in 2009, Mercer reports. These payouts are expected to decline 20% or more across all employee groups, compared with this year. Executives are projected to fare the worst, by receiving bonuses of 35%, down from the 40% or more they received in 2008, Mercer says.
Mercer’s study also shows that employers are cutting back on their recruiting activity. Thirty-two percent of employers said they plan to fill fewer vacancies, and 31% said they’ve already curtailed hiring or are considering doing so.
According to Watson Wyatt’s study, employers are responding to the economic downturn by increasing communication on benefits and pay, implementing travel restrictions and freezing hiring all together.
Still, companies say they are sweetening the pay pot for their top talent. Mercer’s survey shows that 28% of employers have added or are planning to add variable performance-based pay programs, or are making changes to existing ones. Companies may reward high performers with benefits such as restricted stock grants, spot cash payments and flexible-scheduling options.
These kinds of incentives are critical for retaining star performers in an economic slump, says Ken Abosch, North American compensation practice leader at Hewitt. “Now may be a time where you have to disadvantage the masses in order to take care of your best talent,” he says. “If you don’t, somebody else will.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/106012/Next-Years-Paycheck-Looks-Safe-if-Your-Job-Survives
Jobless Wall Street banker considers himself lucky.
“America doesn’t care that people with two years of work experience are no longer making $150K/yr.,” read one e-mail. Another called the 25-year-old from Minnesota an “immature little punk” and a “clueless snot.”
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/N/NY_WALL_STREET_LUCKY_LOSER_NJOL-?SITE=NJCAM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
21 listings in Summit below 500k, 12 of them below 400k. All are 3 bdrs
There’s also a bank owned foreclosure in New Providence for 475k.
Prices falling in mighty Summit?
I thought capes and ranches were going for the mid to high 200’s in Summit back in 2000. Will it be deja vu all over again in Spring 09 or 2010?
GM- apologies, I’m sure someone posted this but ouch
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax3ZRmJRccyo&refer=home
Local forecaster saw the coming crisis.
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/33206639.html
The irony was he was working for Wachovia and they laid him off.
(7) Clot
Won’t it take several days for the hedge funds to “mass sell.” Fri. - Mon. Tues.?
Cindy (14)-
With the breakers in, maybe. If today is bad enough, I can see the markets not opening on Monday. That’s part of Roubini’s call, and I’m backing him until he gets something wrong. Hasn’t happened yet.
I can also see a force majeure scenario developing. This is gonna be 1929-style ugly.
John and MJ … ready to call TODAY a new stock market “bottoming out?’
I can’t imagine that this has to do with Greenspan’s words, huh?
This is NOT Roubini’s slow unwind scenario…
Is there any such thing as a “well-run” hedge fund? Will any be left standing?
“Futures trading limit down.”
Clot;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8kolxD_dyQ&feature=related
My mom called me a few minutes ago panicking about the market futures. When 62yr old, soon to be grandmas are as upset as I just heard things are very serious.
Yes Market disconnect that we all discussed is happening today. Personally, I will be going long shortly. If markets close early (that Roubini is always right), will my 401K changes take place prior to the market reopening on Monday or Tuesday?
Also Russian markets are closed through Tuesday.
Vix could break 100.
“Is there any such thing as a “well-run” hedge fund? Will any be left standing?”
Cindy,
King of the Kings; Paulson, that’s John not Hammerin Hank.
Hank concocts slop, John sells the other side.
Yen = 91.81
Oil = 63.74
There will be at least 500 hedge funds will be out of business by the end of the day.
The unwind continues….
Today is the 79th anniversary of Black Thursday, the official start of the great crash of ‘29.
“Today is the 79th anniversary of Black Thursday”
Today becomes Circutbreaker Friday?
It’s going to be ugly out there the next few days but let’s keep an eye on our family, friends and neighbors. Remember the news last night about the hedge fund manager committing suicide in late Sept. He was clinically depressed and at risk, but still, let’s watch everyone else’s backs and try to offer a little perspective.
BC (18)-
More like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1ZV4Mx7tw8
“John and MJ … ready to call TODAY a new stock market “bottoming out?”
Yikes [16],
Anybody that attempts to call a bottom, in any market, is whistling dixie. There are always bottoms; bear stearns, rogue trader, fannie/freddie, bailout {Sorry, rescue package}, capital injections, coordinated rate cuts, etc. The more pertinent question, is it THE bottom. I guarantee, when we hit it, there will be no press conferences, no manipulation, no releases. One day, just like RE, the market will say that’s enough and the healing process will begin. Only the market can hunt and unearth true price discovery.
One other item regarding bottoms; bottom pickers have zero conviction. It’s a shot, a hope, a wing and a prayer. Once there is a knock [BANG] on the front door, they flee quick, out the back door.
By the way, we have been limit down, S&P futures, since 2:55 AM. What a lovely gap on the charts.
[25],
Amen.
Ted spread and libor, just another scapegoat. Akin to subprime.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120036645057290423.html
(21) BC
From 1/15/08 Re: John Paulson of Paulson & Co.
“He decided to launch a hedge fund solely to bet against risky mortgages.”
“I’ve never been involved in a trade that had such unlimited upside with a very limited downside.”
Cindy [30],
He’s the King.
Cindy,
First place up for grabs tonight; WAC Football.
From MarketWatch:
S&P 500 futures contract triggers circuit breaker
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s circuit-breaker rules went into effect Friday as plunging S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures contracts reached pre-specified limits.
The CME limits the S&P 500 futures to a drop of a 60 points and the Nasdaq 100 futures to a drop of 85 points during electronic action.
They can still be traded electronically, only they can’t trade below those levels. Those contracts can fall more once the pits open at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
“The International Monetary Fund is hurrying to approve by early November a package that would let certain emerging market economies exchange local currencies for U.S. dollars to ease short-term credit strains, officials familiar with the plans said on Thursday.”
“The officials denied market speculation that the IMF was preparing a $1 trillion (620.5 billion pound) bailout facility for emerging markets, saying no such figure had been discussed.”
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20081024/tbs-uk-imf-credit-4210405_1.html
From Bloomberg:
Paulson Is Said to Plan Buying Stakes in Regional U.S. Banks
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is preparing to take stakes in a number of regional U.S. banks as he seeks to halt the freeze of credit to businesses and households, according to a person briefed on the matter.
The Treasury may announce the plans as soon as today, the person, who was briefed by bankers and Treasury officials, said on condition of anonymity. The purchases would be the second round in a $250 billion program to inject capital into financial companies, after an initial $125 billion was allocated to nine of the largest banks.
Regional lenders, already suffering from the housing slump, are now getting hit by rising loan delinquencies as the economic downturn deepens, with unemployment at a five-year high. The 19- member Standard & Poor’s 500 Banks Index has lost half its value in the past year.
“They can still be traded electronically, only they can’t trade below those levels.”
They, S&P futures, haven’t budged since 2:55 AM, local time.
They, S&P futures, haven’t budged since 2:55 AM, local time.
Would that imply they are trying to seek a level lower than the current limits?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uqWWyDdubg&feature=related
youtube?
Got it…
It’s a heartless challenge - you pick your path and then you pray…
They say rulers make bad lovers - you better put your kingdom up for sale.
Well did she make you cry
Make you break down
Shatter your illusions of love?
Well it’s over now
Do you know how
To pick up the pieces and go home…
(32) BC - The WAC is whacked..not even watching
Gartman said it best re picking the bottom the other day on Fast Money, “I don’t pick bottoms I follow trends. If things start moving up for a couple weeks I’ll come out of cash”
Odds on a surprise Fed or Treasury move before market open?
If the sheeple did not want to look at their 401K’s until now, they better unplug their monitors and put a padlock on their mailboxes EOD.
BTW, i think I had posted the figures before, If you had dollar cost averaged from 2000 until now, you would still be in the RED.
The wisest strategy I have heard till now is follow the business cycle and keep rotating through the asset classes.
JB [37],
Yes.
The options market would give a good indication. However, you won’t get a good feel until that market opens. A guess, another 25-30 handles, S&P, lower.
Disclaimer- No Blackbox, gut feel based on last night’s action.
From MarketWatch:
British, euro-zone recessions likely under way
It’s not yet official, but economists say data on the British and euro-zone economies released Friday show that potentially deep recessions are probably already under way — news that comes as little surprise amid unrelenting financial turmoil and months of increasingly gloomy statistics.
Britain’s Office for National Statistics said third-quarter gross domestic product shrank 0.5% compared to the second quarter, marking the first quarterly GDP drop since 1992 and exceeding forecasts for a 0.2% decline. On an annual basis, GDP was up 0.3%, compared to expectations for a 0.5% rise.
“We have been calling for a recession in [the second half] for a long time, but today’s very disappointing GDP reading definitely shows that the recession might be more deep and prolonged than we are currently penciling in,” said Chiara Corsa, economist with UniCredit MIB.
Meanwhile, purchasing managers indexes for the euro zone, closely watched gauges of activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, pointed to a decline in third-quarter euro-zone GDP, economists said.
Shore - Are you still coming to midtown? I hope I didn’t post my recs too late for you.
Bear market for stocks? There’s a bull market somewhere;
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=XX:1841628
Is it a good time to buy, yet? LOL!
“Is it a good time to buy, yet? LOL!”
Gary,
Is it happy hour already?
The bottom I called is still holding, I bet we are down one thousand today and will come back in afternoon and close down somewhere between 300 and 500. They won’t close the markets early and PPT is not in the house today. DTCC Wamu and Lehman CDS pay-outs are causing massive selling in a down market. You can’t fix that by throwing money out of a helicopter. I don’t own any common stocks or mutual funds outside my 401K so I don’t mind the drops as it is funny money to me. Game on Baby, Gold at 600, oil at 50, Dow at 7K lets do the dance.
“John and MJ … ready to call TODAY a new stock market “bottoming out?”
Privately held Chrysler said on Thursday it is slashing 1,825 jobs after losing $1 billion in the first half of the year.
Goldman Sachs [GS 108.58 --- UNCH (0) ] plans to cut 10 percent of its staff, or almost 3,300 jobs after laying off hundreds of support staff and junior bankers in June.
Money manager Janus Capital [JNS 8.61 --- UNCH (0) ] said it would cut 9 percent of its staff a day after rival AllianceBernstein said it would make unprecedented job cuts.
Xerox [XRX 7.71 --- UNCH (0) ] announced job cuts of 5 percent, or 3,000 positions, due to a “tough business environment.”
Mining equipment maker Terex [TEX 14.40 --- UNCH (0) ] said it would lay off hundreds of workers and suspend its share buyback program to preserve cash.
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide [HOT 19.69 --- UNCH (0) ] said it plans to cut an unspecified number of jobs to offset slowing travel demand.
United Parcel Service [UPS 48.13 --- UNCH (0) ] sees layoffs in 2009 as customers need less shipping due to cutbacks on holiday gift purchases.
Computer systems vendor Agilysys [AGYS 5.09 --- UNCH (0) ] cut three senior management positions and is consolidating headquarters in Ohio.
Merck [MRK 28.85 --- UNCH (0) ] announced plans on Wednesday to cut 12 percent of its workforce, citing a need to change its business model in order to survive.
Fidelity National Financial [FNF 8.44 --- UNCH (0) ], which controls one of the largest U.S. title insurers, announced 1,000 job cuts, office closings, a 10 percent pay cut and a 50 percent dividend cut
Biotechnology company Maxygen [MAXY 3.59 --- UNCH (0) ] plans to cut nearly 30 percent of its workforce and explore strategic options due to the current financial environment
Popular Inc. [BPOP 6.26 --- UNCH (0) ], parent of Banco Popular, is cutting 600 positions and more than a quarter of its branches in the United States.
General Motors [GM 6.10 --- UNCH (0) ], which previously said it would reduce salaried employment costs by 20 percnet, reportedly plans more layoffs than expected in its salaried and contract workforce. GM also said it is reducing some employee benefits, including 401 k contributions and other programs.
Down a thousand is a pretty bold call.
Made a 10% below asking offer on a house, which seemed quite reasonable considering the comps. Seller agent claims they already got two offers at asking. Looks like the recession has not arrived. I give up. Actually i`m quite releaved. At least I won`t be stuck with the house in case my job is `made efficient.
“The bottom I called is still holding”
John,
Only true idiots call bottoms. Maybe you can land a spot on CNBC.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 100 percent chance policy makers will lower their target for overnight bank loans, now 1.5 percent, by a half-percentage point, up from 38 percent odds a week ago. The rest of the bets are for a three- quarter point reduction.
BC Bob,
I feel like Jimmy Braddock today… a Hudson County native… down and out… who fights his way to the top… once again. You know it, the kids from Hudson County will eat dirt to survive. Pound for pound, as tough as they come.
OT;
‘Fart gas’ link to blood pressure.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7686911.stm
i shouldn’t be excited for 930, but i kind of am. i guess in the stages of grieving, i’m probably at the acceptance stage.
we all know this has and will be a debacle of epic proportions … and we’re powerless to stop it.
BC Bob I am all in on bonds in my regular trading account, I love to call bottoms but unlike you when I see a bottom I don’t get excited!
The price of the November fed funds futures contract rose to 99.08, indicating a more than 100% chance that the U.S. central bank will cut its target rate by a half of a percentage point to 1% by its next meeting, scheduled for Oct. 28 - 29. December futures show a 99% chance of a further cut in that month, taking the funds rate to 0.75%, which would be the lowest on record.
Clot:
My little double short is up to 190. It’s a shame I sold some at 135, 155 and 175, but I’m not greedy. As in gambling, I’m more about reducing the downside than gambling for massive upside. I still have 1/3rd left though and I look forward to locking in a double bagger on it.
If there is one thing that is becoming clearer and clearer to me, it is that government intervention probably caused the great depression to be extended and worse than natural market forces would have done. Same thing appears to be happening now. I think the psychology of the market is what governments are not paying any attention to. Anytime Paulson, Bergabe or W speak of current conditions, the message to the public is one of ‘holy cr*p’. Unless we have a true leader who spells out what the honest causes were and what we (the people) need to sacrifice to turn the ship around, we will continue to see the market decline.
I stated what the vicious cycle was yesterday morning and no amount of funding banks is going to get them to lend. We need to fund people to so they will buy stuff, not lose their homes and put a stop to the cycle. Our infrastructure is collapsing, real unemployment is probably around 10%, yet we are funding the banks. Give a few middle and lower income people jobs and watch them buy sh*t. This is how it works. Stop F’in encouraging borrowing to buy. People are finally realizing this as they are defaulting on their homes, cars and loans, yet all our buffoons in charge are not privy to this understanding!!! I am really beginning to think that the entire federal government’s strategy is to allow the wealthy to escape unscathed. Executive pay skyrocketed the last few years and everyone noticed but didn’t do a damn thing about it. Their companies and the millions of white and blue collars will pay the price through the loss of jobs or decline in wages (if they are lucky) as Joe the CEO walks away with more money in his offshore bank account than he would need in a thousand lifetimes. People need to wake the f*ck up. And now, back to watching myself get richer by the minute :P
Grim, my diatribe at 60 is in mod!
“The scale of the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet is stunning. The Fed is currently provided at least $950b in dollar liquidity to the US financial system through various term facilities and its direct lending, and another $450b of dollar liquidity to European central banks — liquidity that is then lent to European financial institutions that are facing a shortage of dollars. Let there be no doubt that this is a systemic crisis.”
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/10/16/foreign-central-banks-seek-safety-the-fed-by-contrast/
From MarketWatch:
Freddie:Sept single-family delinquency rate rises to 122 bps
John,
Bean counters calling bottoms in markets? Just sayin.
hey, as a buyer on the sidelines flush with cash, i’m actually eager to see us get as close to the bottom as possible.
the sooner, the better. most people probably have relatives who are going through s*it with their homes, and nobody wants to see them suffer (even if they made bad decisions).
in my mind, i’m thinking housing values won’t start an upward trend for at least 5 years. and by ‘upward trend’ i don’t mean skyrocketing, but probably closer to leveling off than anything.
BC you have not worked at Goldman since they had Dex Machines, Rotary phones, Wangs and Quotrons on the floor and you spent the day reading your greenbar reports shooting off your dot matrix printer while wiping xerox powder and carbon copy ink off your sleeves.
BC Bob Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 8:46 am
John,
Bean counters calling bottoms in markets? Just sayin.
Stu (60)-
Welcome to the club:
“I am really beginning to think that the entire federal government’s strategy is to allow the wealthy to escape unscathed.”
67 moderated.
BC (64)-
There’s a reason he’s a bean counter.
“There’s a reason he’s a bean counter.”
Does it have anything to do with lowering blood pressure?
Stu (70)-
Seems like there’s a lot of excitement in his personal life.
Briefing.com:
General Electric (GE) plans to use the Fed’s commercial paper lending facility. The Wall Street Journal indicated AIG (AIG) has tapped the Fed for additional funds. According to the article, as of this last Wednesday AIG has borrowed $90.3 billion, which exceeds the original $85 billion rescue plan.
John [66],
LMAO.
citi is 12 bucks a share
38…”they say wrestlers make bad lovers….saving themselves for the ring”.
-Nacho Libre
Today is 75th Anniversary of Black Thursday & Bernanke intends to go to Zero with the FFR. Oh well, at least I won’t need to include Interest Income in the Tax Return.
“citi is 12 bucks a share”
Do I buy a case of Beck’s or 2 shares of C?
Watching the Oversight hearings last night, I was trying to place John Snow..then it me Jack Torrance + 30 years.
Morning Market Recap: Equity Futures Selling Halts, U.S. Dollar Remains Bullish
Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures tumbled 500 points, 60, and 100 points respectively, triggering their limit-down levels. Until the stock market opens at 9:30 a.m. EDT, these indexes are not allowed to move any lower, however they can trade higher. The move follows sharp downturns in Asian and European stock indexes in the overnight.
Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are now down 550 points to 8224, the S&P 500 is down 60 points to 855 and the Nasdaq is down 85 points to 1169.
#53 dbtko: Do nto fall for they have anotehr offer nonsense. Just laugh at the realtor. It is amazing thye still want to ply these games after all that has occurred.
Wait until the Spring, there will be tons of houses for sale at deep,deep discounts.
Pnc buying NatCity
BC Bob Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 8:40 am
OT;
‘Fart gas’ link to blood pressure.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7686911.stm
*************************************
I just read that and my other half stated that this is going to be part of our new employee health care plan in 2009… Since he already exhausts enough to fill our (very large) shop, he can tell our employees he’s lowering their blood pressure…
great. everytime he farts the world goes dark and we lose half an hour as it is…
#66 John:Yeah but you never worked at GS.
Cool, I had an NCC bond. Back in the day of me going wild buying sick bank bonds in hopes of me cashing out only to get thrown under the iluiquid bus after wamu and lehman.
PNC to Acquire National City
Merger will create fifth largest U.S. banking deposit franchise PNC to further strengthen capital position
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/pnc-acquire-national-city/story.aspx?guid=%7B1DA8AB04-2FA9-4927-8C3D-3CF344B61F50%7D&dist=hppr
dbko:
Made a 10% below asking offer on a house, which seemed quite reasonable considering the comps. Seller agent claims they already got two offers at asking.
Just counter with “That’s okay, I’ve got offers on two other houses and one is a foreclosure, so let me know if your seller is serious about selling.”
Three random thoughts.
1. For everyone flush with cash (I’m one of them) waiting for a bottom; when it comes, it will stay there.
2. A good investment strategy now would be to start drinking heavily.
3. When this is over, I want my free house.
GS was a sweatshop, never wanted to work there, in fact when I was consulting they were always bugging me to go there. Either as an employee or a consultant I worked at Chase, Citi, Bank of Tokyo, Mizuho, Merrill, Smithbarney, HSBC, KBW, Schwab, ITG, US Trust, Fidelity, Brown Brothers, DTCC and a whole lot of others I can’t remember. I have also consulted at BDs and banks in England, Canada, Bermuda, Japan.
Open Your Wallets
“And while other states have more red tape to cut through before higher employer contributions can be implemented, as losses mount, it’s not unreasonable to expect California to be the first of many to pass these costs on to their members.
So why should anyone — at least anyone who isn’t depending on a state pension to fund their golf and tennis in Palm Springs — care?
States aren’t exactly flush with cash these days, as debt costs rise and tax receipts fall. In order for pension funds to cover payouts in years to come, they need more money. Short of a sharp reversal or a sustained recovery in equity markets, that money needs to come from somewhere: Higher taxes could be in everyone’s future. ”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-ms-savings-california-401k-Retirement/index/a/19670
Corzine and the rest of the Trenton Clowns will be knocking on your door in the not too distant future.
No wonder the CNBC eye candy has been having hot flashes. They may be worried about their jobs.
“General Electric, the parent company of CNBC, plans to test the Federal Reserve’s Commercial Paper Funding Facility when it opens on Monday, October 27th.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27351344
six minutes into the day and we’re flirting with 7999 … will we reach 6999?
Did anyone else see Corzine’s appearance on the Daily Show last night? Pretty lame.
#88 John: I worked at GS, when it was a partnership, and it was no sweatshop.
All emplyees were well taken care of, from the mail room clerks all the way up.
It always is amazing to me how so many who never worked there, claim to know so much about it.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/analyst/080702.asp
So is THIS capitulation?
(92) gator:
Lame is a compliment. Corzine had no personality and reminds me of those college freshman who would stay up all night in the dorm lounge playing Supremacy. The only thing entertaining about them was pondering how they got that way in the first place.
I dont’ mind when candidates appear on these talk/comedy shows; they’re trying to reach a set of eyes. But why does Corzine need to pop up at the Daily Show and CBNC and who knows where else? Doesn’t he have a day job? Two million comedians out of work and this guy is trying to be funny.
#71 clot: Can we expect the reality of all that has happened over the last few months, to finally, really, and truly start being reflected in house asking prices come Spring of 2009?
Here’s the link to the Corzine segment if you’d like to see for yourself.
Governor Jon Corzine believes the financial system will straighten out if we fix the housing and job markets first.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=189152&title=Jon-Corzine
Corzine tried to be funny, but ended up being offensive to his host. Stewart asked him if he follows the popularity polls on himself. Corzine then asked Stewart if he followed the TV ratings?
About the only insiteful thing Corzine said was that when he lead GS he was unpopular but well paid. Now as gov of NJ he was still unpopular and not well paid.
Dude really is a geek to the extreme. He has no shot at the presidency.
Ref 98: Hey Corzine, how about fixing NJ first?
hmmmmm med size cup of Dunkin Donuts coffee or a share of Ford.
…darn it! waited too long — make that a small size…
sl
I want to see perp walks. Can you here me
Mukaskey and Cuomo!
September Existing Home Sales due out any minute now
It wasn’t just the securitization - it was the LYING about the securitized product…its value and worth -
How can people NOT be guilty - How could we all not be protected by some agency?
You almost expect bankers to lie and cheat - but the government is supposed to be watching out for US…
Upside surprise and end the day green?
re: #96, #99 Corzine may be auditioning for the job of Secretary of the Treasury.
IF it were up to me I would make him ambassador to Albania.
September EHS up!
re: # 105 Grim - The current round of Hedgie unwind should be over soon.
Up big
Sean 106 - Sure that’s what he wants as his next step. But he does also want to be President one day. Never gonna happen. Michael Dukakis had more personality.
I realize that’s shallow and doesn’t even touch the myriad of diasterous policy reasons that would disqualify him. But game, set and match - he doesn’t have a chance.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. Sept. existing-home sales up 5.5% to 5.18 million pace
U.S. existing-home sales up 1.4% in past year
U.S. Sept. existing home sales highest in 13 months
First year-on-year increase in home sales in nearly 3 years
U.S. existing-home prices down 9.0% in past year
Happy days are here again!
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-report-existing-home-sales-jump/story.aspx?guid=%7B2F48DC97%2D24A5%2D4727%2D91ED%2D43D5223C9ED2%7D&dist=hplatest
Northeast had the worst volume showing in September with sales down 1.2% month over month and 7.7% year over year (SAAR).
Prices in the Northeast down 5.4% year over year.
#114 grim: Well I guess we will need to see some significant price declines in the northeast to get those numbers up.
Grim,
CNBC said most of the gains were in Cal. 10% price drops and close to 40% of sales were foreclosures/short sales.
Guess you were in the tribe
3b Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 9:42 am
#88 John: I worked at GS, when it was a partnership, and it was no sweatshop.
All emplyees were well taken care of, from the mail room clerks all the way up.
It always is amazing to me how so many who never worked there, claim to know so much about it.
Quick FYI - for those who were talking about the circuit breakers on futures (limit down) you also know that they have them on the way up and they hit those limit up prices many earlier times this year, especially on commodities.
“U.S. Sept. existing-home sales up 5.5% to 5.18 million pace”
Where’s the recession? People are still buying homes like it’s 2005.
Frank,
See 116 moron. Guess what’s coming to NJ/NYC
From the AP:
September existing home sales up 5.5 percent
A real estate trade group says sales of existing homes rose by the largest amount in more than five years in September. The data is a possible glimmer of hope that the housing slump could be starting to bottom out.
The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales of existing homes rose by 5.5 percent in September compared to August, the best showing since a 5.6 percent increase in July 2003, during the five-year housing boom.
Even with the gain in sales, prices kept falling. The median sales price has dropped to $191,600, down by 9 percent from a year ago.
“CNBC said most of the gains were in Cal. 10% price drops and close to 40% of sales were foreclosures/short sales.”
Vultures.
#60
“I am really beginning to think that the entire federal government’s strategy is to allow the wealthy to escape unscathed.”
Stu– this doesn’t make much sense. the wealthy are getting hit, it is just that they have a bigger cushion so they can afford to lose more. about half of the country has zero in assets and lives paycheck to paycheck; everything they have is due completely to debt. they are now defaulting, getting workouts, loan forgiveness (with no taxes on this), checks in the mail from the gov’t, with more to come shortly. for those among this group who lose their jobs, this is truly a disaster. but for the rest, they have really lost nothing and may even be gaining. I just do not see how what is playing out today is an example of the rich getting away with something
From Bloomberg:
U.S. Home Resales Unexpectedly Jump 5.5% as Foreclosures Drive Down Prices
Home resales in the U.S. rose more than forecast in September, aided by foreclosure-driven declines in prices that made properties more affordable.
Purchases of existing homes jumped 5.5 percent last month to a 5.18 million annual pace, the highest level in a year, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 9 percent.
The boost to sales from lower prices may be short lived as banks withhold financing on mounting concern that record foreclosures will hurt profits and depress values even more. The collapse in lending signals the housing recession will extend well into a fourth year.
“Buyers are having trouble getting financing,” Terrin Griffiths, an economist at the California Credit Union League in Rancho Cucamonga, California, said before the report. “The economy is showing increasing signs of weakness and the housing market continues to struggle.”
Resales were forecast to rise to a 4.95 million annual rate from a 4.91 million pace in August, according to the median estimate of 66 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 4.7 million to 5.11 million.
Sales rose 1.4 percent compared with a year earlier, the first year-over-year increase since November 2005. Resales totaled 5.65 million in 2007.
Today’s figures compare with the 4.86 million level reached in June, the lowest in a decade and 33 percent down from the record reached in September 2005.
The New York Times real estate section has an interesting article called ‘Standing Firm in the Hamptons’. One guy bought a house this past February, renovated it, and then listed it for in July for $1,950,000. They call him a seller but the reality is he is a flipper. I guess he thought he’d make a quick buck and then the market starting falling apart.
“Buyers are having trouble getting financing,”
With an estimated 5,180,000 existing home sales transactions taking place this year, I have a hard time believing that buyers are having trouble getting financing.
123 in mod
Grim (125)-
It is all the foreigners with their Yens.
Wonder why the Treasury isn’t upset about speculative positions in real estate.
Speculative long in Oil = Bad
Speculative long in Homes = Good
Speculative short in Oil = Good
Speculative short in Homes = Bad
Regarding the impact of the EHS numbers.
The problem was volume, but that is old news. Who cares if volume is up, but on substantially lower prices. The new problem is prices.
[60] Stu,
Huh? Izzat a cross the board statement?
By democratic definitions, I am “wealthy” and I am getting creamed.
And, somehow, inexplicably, I missed out on my bailout. Mrs. Deplume is gonna be pissed.
#117 John: If by tribe you mean Jewish, no.
Another GS myth. They did not. just higher Jewish people.
#107
“September EHS up!”
foreclosures and short sales.
#119 Frank: Sales DOWN,and prices DOWN in the northeast.
Perhaps you should read the entire article before posting. Now go back to sleep.
Citadel gone poof?
I have been waiting for home prices to go down in NY/NJ for 10 years now. When? Show me? I am a cash buyer. Let’s go. Don’t tell me it’s down 10%, that’s old news.
Frank Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I have been waiting for home prices to go down in NY/NJ for 10 years now. When? Show me? I am a cash buyer. Let’s go. Don’t tell me it’s down 10%, that’s old news.
Frank - I am sorry but If you were wating in 1998 and had cash - you are an IDIOT.
I would be interested to see how the financing compared YoY for these existing home sale numbers. If it follows Cali, sales up YoY, but percentage of jumbo financings way down. I would guess that percentage of FHA financed purchases was up massively. If I am right, what this means for our area is that is your asking price is in jumbo territory, there are very few buyers. Even if you are within conforming limits, you will soon be competing with a wave of short sales and foreclosures, so it would be best to do a big price cut now to get out in front of this.
These numbers up great for realtors. Hopefully they will start to realize that big price cuts are necessary and positive for the market
10 years ago? You should have been buying 10 years ago? North Jersey homes were dirt cheap in ‘98.
Give me a break Frank. If you were in a position to buy 10 years ago, but didn’t, you are a dope. The market made perfect sense in ‘98, by every fundamental and metric you could have chosen.
HEHEHE moron,
I guess moron like you can’t analyze the news, people have cash and are getting mortgages and they are buying homes big time.
Frank -
Don’t you have some shopping to do at the mall? Hurry before all the big screen TVs get sold out and there is a bidding war on them.
another implication of much greater share of purchases being financed by FHA is much more stringent appraisals (someone in the business please correct me if I am wrong here). This also increases downward pressure on prices
Nom,
“Huh? Izzat a cross the board statement?”
I’m not sure what you are asking me?
grim,
I bought in 1999 in Hoboken, by 2001 I was trying to sell because prices were crazy already. Now they are at super crazy levels but people are still buying. In NJ homes are selling for 2 to 3 times of rents, but people don’t care.
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dollar: China paper
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE49N1XX20081024
102/Sean-
It’s coming. Just heard an interesting tid bit from a relative of someone in gov’t working on the investigations. Many arrests forthcoming.
From MarketWatch:
J.P. Morgan forecasts deeper recession in U.S., Europe
J.P. Morgan Chase’s economics team on Friday said it cut its outlook for the U.S. and Western Europe to reflect a deeper recession. “Weak data, striking declines in October surveys and poor financial performance,” prompted the investment bank to lower the average pace of growth for the two regions by a full percentage point for the third and fourth quarters. Economists led by Bruce Kasman lowered their views on the fourth-quarter U.S. growth rate to -4% from -2%. They still expect the Fed to cut its benchmark lending rate by a half percentage point next week and a quarter point in December. For Britain, J.P. Morgan anticipates the economy will contract 2.75% for the next two quarters, down from a -2% drop previously forecast. For Europe, the bank sees growth shrinking 1.5%, worse than a 0.5% drop previously.
Frank - Give it up already. How’s your foundation?
“Don’t you have some shopping…”
My wife shops at the mall, I shop on NYSE.
John, there are two distinct possibilities, either he has drank the kool-aid Goldman really is the most fantastic lier I have ever seen. Their employees actually believe what they are told, at my firm I believe nothing they say because typically they are at least bending the truth. Goldman people believe actually believe when their firm says we are well capitalized, we were never at risk, we pay and treat our employees well, etc. Many of my friends left the firm I work at when we started writing down and went to GS and the first person who went regrets it. He made the same salary and bonus that I did and was working 80 hour weeks, I was working 40-50 hour weeks and thus my effective salary was twice what his was. From people I know at GS they have been working weekends, their bonus and raise will be very weak this year and the firm isn’t exactly great to them ie. no vacation days for the weekend days they worked. John I agree that they really use and abuse their employees, back when it was a partnership though the firm was different from what I have heard from anyone who was involved.
skep-tic Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 10:39 am
another implication of much greater share of purchases being financed by FHA is much more stringent appraisals (someone in the business please correct me if I am wrong here). This also increases downward pressure on prices
All FHA is asking is a somewhat decent Credit scores (I think they would give you a loan with 580+ righht now - I don’t know if 580 can even be considered decent) and 3% down.
There is nto credit crunch - I believe people do nto want to get Neg-arms and as ANY bubble once base of the market - people who are buying houses for living in them not as investment stop buying due to being priced out - it is collapsing.
Look at CA - oprices dropped and all of the sudden you have 40% YoY increase in sales.
And Yes Frank is an ofiicial Village (ok, well, NJ) Idiot for not buying in 1998.
This thing called ‘working’ at GS. What exactly are the people doing on weekends? I’m just curious…that’s all.
Great Stuff!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a5PEgwA8j68M&refer=home
“If you haven’t figured it out by now, America has hired the wrong Paulson. There are two of them, Hank and John. Hank turned Goldman Sachs from an investment bank into a busload of tourists going to a casino, with borrowed money. “
#144 frank: For the love of God give it a rest. Come to my blue ribbon Bergen co train town, tons of inventory for sale, for months;all rotting away on the market.
And many of them listed for under 400K
The Citadel et al stuff is kinda weird and nobody is really sure what’s going on. Because of the lockup periods, there is a chance they’ll be able to skate through this mess between now and the end of the year. The word we’re getting is that things could be very rocky Oct 31/ Nov 1 for redemption activity, but the TRUE storm is going to come Dec 31 for places with quarterly notice. (They had to notify in September to make the cutoff, which, a lot of people probably did.)
A few items that I think have been lost in the midst of all this financial crisis- I can print up a business card tomorrow and with a few million bucks, “start a hedge fund.” That happened and many of those people probably lost money and may be “closing,” but to say that they’re anything more than a hobby is an overstatement.
I think we must be nearing a bottom because nobody here is talking about the future, they’re all talking about the present ;)
For the last few years, most people on here were predicting what would take place and quite accurately might I add. That’s awesome, here we are, now what?? Let’s look out another 1,3,5 years- what’s the insight? You’re all too smart to find yourselves living in caves.
Market ends green today.
Disclaimer: I’m an optimist.
#150 jcer:back when it was a partnership though the firm was different from what I have heard from anyone who was involved.
I worked there for many years when it was a partnership, and it really was a wonderful place to work.
And many fo the partners were bitterly opposed to going public.
Thain and Thornton did their coup, ousted Corzine, and the rest is history.
GS is big into face time. Even if you run run out of work at 5pm, internet surfing, bill paying etc. is important stuff to get you to seven pm. Diversity at GS is also a pain. The last few years they have hired lots of women and other ethnic groups who are safe in this round of lay-offs due to PC , the stupid old WASP working 80 hours a week will be out the door in a few weeks while the new comers get to stay.
“I have been waiting for home prices to go down in NY/NJ for 10 years now.”
Frank,
Not me. I was bullish 1998-2004.
From MarketWatch/WSJ:
Chrysler to cut 25% of white-collar jobs in November: WSJ
#151
Al– understood that FHA is still relatively loose in terms of borrower credit profile, but from what I have read they are being more strict in terms of appraisals. so even if you can get a loan as a less than stellar borrower, you may not be able to borrow enough to meet the asking prices which are still too high
John,
When my ex-worked at GS that was her biggest complaint. Half the people could be out of that place at 7 but they feel they need to hang around until 9-9:30 at the minumum to put on a show. Only plus was the free dinner and limo ride home.
Make that town car ride home
#158 John: If you were in trading and sales, everybody was out the door at 5:00 PM, the hours were 7:30 to 5, no lunch.
There simply was no reason to stay later, as trading/sales ceased at 5:00 PM.
Stu, people at GS are very secretive about what they do and lets face it, it is almost a cult. Most of the people I know are Software Developers, Project Managers, Business Analysts, DBA’s and System Admins.
“I bought in 1999 in Hoboken, by 2001 I was trying to sell because prices were crazy already.”
Frank,
What a bunch of BS. Jan, 2001, FFR-6.00-5.50%.
3b is right, go back to sleep.
#165 jcer: True it has become cult like now (although the luster is gone in my opinion after this financial debacle). Turns out they were not all that different from the other IB’s.
I bought is 1999 in Hoboken, new construction, 30 yr mortgage, 8.25%, 250K, 50K down. Sold and bought in 2003 place was 420K, 5 yr arm, 4.25 rate, 70K down.
Frank’s a complete fraud.
Basically from what I can tell the GS of today is a hollow shell of lies, deception, and out and out theft. HEHEHE yeah out by 7pm but they start work at 7am that is a 12 hour work day. I don’t get the face time thing, but GS is big into it and those who were doing workday less than 10 hours think they are on the block to get cut.
he [168],
He’s not a fraud, simply an imbecile. He says it himself, he was bearish Hoboken RE in 2001.
Russia will need more vodka.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/3248672/Russian-default-risk-tops-Iceland-as-crisis-deepens-financial-crisis.html
3b, the model they created for ibank growth was toxic and caused the downfall of investment banking in the US. Before what I like to call the new “Goldman Model” firms were more cautious leverage was not as high, they were more facilitators than large hedge funds with advisory services. Of course there was always risk and leverage being used, the firms were outlaying large sums of capital, but the large proprietary trading and derivatives business was not something that was happening. 3b the thing is that the people who work there still buy into it. I have asked the people who are working there why the lower level employees have not revolted yet. The pay is not good enough to justify working in the conditions they work in.
#172 jcer: I have asked the people who are working there why the lower level employees have not revolted yet
Where are they going to go????
Back when I worked at GS, they were incredibly cautious, and ironically were never known as an innovator, but a follower, who did it better.
jcer,
Yeah, she was on some quant team supporting G-sam. She said everyone got in at 7-7:30 even though all they did was bs and not do anything for the first hour. It’s more or less you need to be there a certain hours of the day to not look bad as opposed to getting work done. She said half the crap they did got scrapped anyway. Especially when she moved over to their internet group.
Amen BC, bearish RE in 2001.
market might actually master a huge rally and end up 500 points up at the end of the day… This would be nice…. Ohh ho am I kidding - I do not care.
“And many of them listed for under 400K”
400K is crazy for any home in NJ I don’t care where it’s. You can rent them for 1/3 of the sale price. That’s exactly my point, prices are still crazy but people keep buying.
Bull market lives on.
By the way - we are wayyyyyy off the bottom:
Fromt the bloomberg paper on housing sales:
“In terms of sales, I think we have bottomed out,” Yun said in a press conference. “The first step to housing-market stabilization is rising home sales. Hopefully, this trend can continue.”
You have to know by now - when Yun says it is the bottom - it is about to get a lot worse.
Cirrus,
Long slow recovery as borrow and spend culture changes into save and spend culture. Equity investing will no longer be a 7% a year guarantee. Maybe for a year or two we’ll see an accelerated return (V like) but then a long flat line. The 70’s will be back in vogue. I have already begun going back long. If DJIA closes nearer to 8K, I will increase my long positions in my 401K from 30% to 50%. Don’t want to be in bonds when interest rates are increasing. Still not long in my taxable/IRA stuff. Mostly MM funds now and some very profitable shorts in paper gains. Cash to invested ratio is 5 to 1 as I have been selling my shorts into this panic.
Housing prediction of 30% top to bottom still intact. Cali has shown buying since it’s a completely different culture. I lived out there for a while. When I was there in 99-2000, more people rented than owned in Los Angeles. Everyone wanted to be an owner, but no one could afford it. Much, much worse ratio of income to mortgage out there. Seemed like a lot of wealthy people were profiting handsomely off of mass appreciation of their cr*p shacks. These same owners (who have cash in hand) are at it again. Have been waiting for this opportunity since the 80s. California is a renters market like no other. It’s very culturally different from here where most homes are owned and lived in by the owners. When the vultures show up in Essex county, then we may be a bit closer to the bottom.
Everyone around here seems to lack patience. I can’t stress enough how much time is your friend in the realm of investing. The more time you give it, the more likely you will come out ahead. It took me almost 8 years to realize this. Gambling is the opposite. The more time you spend the greater the likelihood that you will lose. Most posters here have the attention span of a 1-year old. Frank for example. One month does not make a trend.
Al,
Do I need to post the link again?
Tracking Realtor Spin:
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/04/09/tracking-realtor-spin/
Classic disconnect. Just called our landlord and asked if we could go month to month when our lease runs out in April. She said of course but they would be putting it on the market at a price to sell fast. $950,000. The listed it at 990,000 2 years ago. Guess we won’t have to move out fast.
The Daily Municipal Comment October 24, 2008 by Michael E. Lane
The rally continues in the municipal market. Yields fell yesterday across the curve, and the market is opening strongly again today as Treasuries rally in face of weaker equities. For the week that ended yesterday, the Bond Buyer’s 20-Bond G.O. Index fell 69 basis points, to 5.32% from last week’s 6.01%. Next week promises a fuller scale resumption of the new issue calendar than we have seen the past month, when most issues were targeted for retail clients. The cheapness of municipals versus Treasuries has brought institutional buyers back into the market and their participation will be essential for sustaining the market’s gains.
Grim,
“http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/04/09/tracking-realtor-spin/”
Someone needs to make one of those charts for BI’s calls.
Disclaimer,
I am a high school janitor and have no idea what i am talking about……
If we assume that the US is facing a financial situation somewhat similar to the japanse economy in 1990, and you feel that elliot wave theory has some validity, them i would not be surprised to see the downward pattern settle in the range of dow 6250 - 5750 or S&P 350 - 450.
This is merely my way of entertaining myself, paper gambling if you will.
Euro is tanking against the dollar - yeah. I can trade up to grand crus again. But why is the dollar tanking against the yen?
[177] Frank, there are many homes in NJ worth over 400K. The problem is that everyone started thinking their tiny cape’s were worth over 400K and buyers “agreed”.
Elliot Wave theory is crap. Anyone can find patterns in things. Kettle1, do you believe in astrology as well? I really hope you see it as entertainment and nothing else.
Also, can anyone tell me why Essex is quoting Nacho Libre? I made the Gator let me rent it a while back instead of a ‘real’ movie and am still reminded of it with regularity. Admittedly, when Nacho jumps from the top ropes about 40 yards, it was pretty funny. The rest of the film leaves one questioning who invested in this script?
Beach condos auction
2 Main Street, Bradley Beach, NJ 07720
13 condos/2 commercial or retail store fronts
Previous asking $599,000
Minimum asking $175,000
Saw these 6 months ago. Nice units.
Max Spann is holding the auction.
“The federal government may start guaranteeing home mortgages to persuade lenders to ease the monthly financial burden on struggling homeowners, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila C. Bair said yesterday.”
“In the month of August, over 9,800 homes entered foreclosure every day,” Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) said. “If this statistic was that there were over 9,800 Wall Street executives that lost their jobs every day in August, we would have ended this a long time ago.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102301517.html?hpid=topnews
Orion [188],
Do you know when the auction is?
3b, it almost doesn’t matter if everyone stopped caring, they cannot motivate the people with fear. Where I work once the promise of good bonus disappeared we are all not motivated, if they asked us to come in on the weekend we would demand something for it because we know year end is going to suck royally and largely the firm has understood that and is trying to keep those who know what is going on. Right now for lower salaried people at the Wall Street firms the company needs them more than the people need the firm. I am not saying everyone should quit their job or anything but now that GS is not the Wunderkid it was before the employees need to set a new expectation but most of them are reluctant to speak up.
BC,
http://www.maxspann.com/auc-Bradley-Beach-111608.html
#177 Frank Perhaps you should read my post again, I said they are all sitting, as in not selling.
And these very same POS Capes were selling fro 500K and more in 2006, now at listed prices of under 400K, they are all sitting.
BC Bob (190),
Sunday, Nov. 16th, 2008, 1 PM, at Sheraton Hotel in Eatontown
Property previews: Oct. 26 & Nov. 2nd
“But why is the dollar tanking against the yen?”
Yen represents the global tolerance for risk. In addition to this, Mrs Wantanbe is still unwinding.
Kettle for a high school janitor you seem highly educated in chemistry and the oil industry?
BC BOB: from your linked article…
“Sen. Charles. E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) also said that the Treasury was giving the banks too much without requiring enough in return. “We’re feeding them a little too much dessert and not feeding them enough vegetables,” he said.”
I hope if some loony does try to take down the chosen one, that Schumer somehow takes the bullet instead.
#191 jcer; Understood, but as I said they are reluctant to speak up, because they have no where to go.
At the end of the day most of them still need their job.
jcer (196):
“Kettle for a high school janitor you seem highly educated in chemistry and the oil industry?”
Kettle must learned his oil theory from servicing the school’s boilers. His chemistry knowledge was gained from figuring out how to clean puke out of carpeting and how to remove bubble gum from desk bottoms.
re: Condo auction
When I attended the Belmar auction, highest price sold for $400K.
Others sold $325-$350K
Nothing went for $175K (stated minimum bids).
Note that in addition to purchase price, there is a 10% buyer’s premium on top of that.
Orion, JB,
Thanks.
Best line from the Bradley Beach Auction advert…
“You deserve to live in a resort!”
Stu (179)-
“I can’t stress enough how much time is your friend in the realm of investing. The more time you give it, the more likely you will come out ahead”
- Tru dat!! Learning it the hard way. If I had just stuck to the positions I had at the beginning of the year, would have come out much higher than I am.
But, am not complaining. Still ahead in the game (beginners luck?) but after a lot of weaving in and out. Thanks for the advice.
#202 … and an electric bugaboo
“… and an electric bugaboo”
I’m glad someone thought that was clever.
3B 193
The decision to buy for someone who doesn’t expect any appreciation for a decade is very different from someone jumping in to any home so they won’t be “closed out of the market forever.” There is no fire under those of us sitting on the sidelines, quite the opposite.
Vicki Bryan, senior high-yield analyst at bond research firm Gimme Credit. “Global financial market mayhem and grim economic and housing market data painted the prospect that housing markets may not recover for years. Actually, the housing market will be hard-pressed to recover over the next couple of years even if the economy is stable,” the analyst wrote in a client note Friday. “Lending standards for mortgages continue to tighten and mortgage foreclosures are at record levels,” Bryan added.
#206 renter; So true. For me if I don’t get a good deal, I don’t buy. (But I have no doubt I will get a good deal).
The lvel of denial and hostility out there to falling prices though is still amazing.
Jcer,
Stu nailed it. Bumming around the local high school has unique learning opportunities.
Stu,
I find it interesting but thats the limit. I dont try to trade with it. It really is just entertainment for me. I think that what eliott wave and astrology have in common is human behavior. They both depend on human behavior as a basis.
Now if you will excuse me i have a cafeteria to mop…..
3b, I don’t understand it but I guess my situation is different in that I made it clear to my firm that if I wasn’t treated well , I could leave and while I was looking to leave I would not be supporting my production system and no one else knows how to keep it running(Undocumented, the original architect was my boss until he quit) and sure enough we had a batch failure and the users freaked out. Could someone come in and learn the system, yes but they would have to be smart and it is likely a higher up would get in a heap of trouble in the ensuing months that it would take to learn the system.
Honestly I think they respect me more for my Hutzpah and understand that I get projects done for that reason, I am aggressive and go at my job the same way I go after pay and work conditions. I have little fear of losing my job and I would think other young childless employees too would not fear losing their jobs.
What does this really mean? Anyone?
WASHINGTON, Oct 24, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ — Fannie Mae (FNM: will redeem the principal amounts indicated for the following securities issues on the redemption dates indicated below at a redemption price equal to 100 percent of the principal amount redeemed, plus accrued interest thereon to the date of redemption:
Principal Security Interest Maturity Date CUSIP Redemption Date
Amount Type Rate
$485,000,000 MTN 4.467% March 5, 2010 3136F8WG6 November 5, 2008
$250,000,000 MTN 4.750% November 5, 2010 31398AJK9 November 5, 2008
Can’t wait to roll up my sleeves and build a national park or a dam! Had a dream last night that I was one of those “high scalers” that did the rockwork high above the Hoover Dam. Muscled and chiseled (think awards trophy or an art deco atlas shrugged), with a harem of WWII pin-up girls to wipe my brow while I worked.
WPA here we come!
Grim,
I never felt better since I left the world of monthly quotas, TPS reports, and corporate B.S……we will be better nation….poorer….but better.
3B
We are still trying to get out of NJ. We will give up in the summer of
2010. I would leave today but there were vows made……
People do not want to believe because their house represented a tremendous windfall. Every homeowner became an investment genius. How do you give that up?
anyone still selling gold coins? grim? i’m interested.
grim at work
http://static.flickr.com/81/247862271_81899067fe.jpg
Somebody want to pass the news on to pret?
“NEW YORK—Traders and investment bankers might have more to worry about than dwindling bonus pools this year as mass firings on Wall Street are set to hit a record.”
“The fallout from this year’s global credit crisis has claimed jobs on all corners of Wall Street, from hedge fund managers to floor traders and beyond. More than 110,000 have lost their jobs so far this year, and some industry experts forecast it could come close to 200,000 before the year is over.”
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/10/23/wall_street_layoffs_could_surge_past_200000/
grim at work II
http://www.megoville.com/images/hulk/Hulk-HooverDam-True.jpg
grim working the iron….
http://ebayimages.goantiques.com/dbimages/GTW2292/GTW2292maor_sc4.jpg
Kettle @184_No I just wanna know how one becomes
a janitor because Andrew here, is
very interested in pursuing a
career in the custodial arts…
CARL
Oh, really? You guys think I’m
just some untouchable peasant? Peon?
Huh? Maybe so, but following
a broom around after sh*heads like
you for the past eight years I’ve
learned a couple of things…I look
through your letters, I look through
your lockers…I listen to your
conversations, you don’t know that
but I do…I am the eyes and ears of
this institution my friends. By the
way, that clock’s twenty minutes
fast!
#217 BC Bob:Somebody want to pass the news on to pret?
And Frank.
#2124 renter:How do you give that up?
You do, simple as that. If you want to sell but cannot at your 05 fantasty price, than take it off and see you in 10+ years or more.
If you need to sell,than accept it and move on.
so how long before some bank borrows from TARP to buy CIT?
3 hours in, and the markets are holding up quite well. the 3-4 pm range will be scary as heck …
BC,
The game is accelerating quickly, i guess russia isnt going to buy up all the icelandic banks after all…
Russian default risk tops Iceland as crisis deepens
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/3248672/Russian-default-risk-tops-Iceland-as-crisis-deepens-financial-crisis.html
Russia’s financial crisis is escalating with lightning speed as foreigners pull funds from the country and the debt markets start to price a serious risk of sovereign default.
Russian companies must roll over $47bn of foreign loans over the next two months, and a further $150bn or so next year, a task that has become close to impossible as investors flee Eastern Europe.
Actually I sold my Moms house in June 2004 for $550 and an identical house on same side of street five houses away just went on market for $505K. We originally put house on market Fall 2003 before we pulled it around Thanksgiving and by Thanksgiving the highest offer was only 500K. At 505K that house is prices at early spring 2003 or late 2002 prices. Also that is just an asking price so I am sure it won’t go for more than 480K which is early 2002 pricing for that block. The axe is falling
jcer,
kettle1 @ work
http://networksolutionsservices.com/images/janitor.jpg
Orion Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
What does this really mean? Anyone?
WASHINGTON, Oct 24, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ — Fannie Mae (FNM: will redeem the principal amounts indicated for the following securities issues on the redemption dates indicated below at a redemption price equal to 100 percent of the principal amount redeemed, plus accrued interest thereon to the date of redemption:
Principal Security Interest Maturity Date CUSIP Redemption Date
Amount Type Rate
$485,000,000 MTN 4.467% March 5, 2010 3136F8WG6 November 5, 2008
$250,000,000 MTN 4.750% November 5, 2010 31398AJK9 November 5, 2008
Orion: I don’t know exactly, I would have to look it up, but I am not at my desk.
MY GUESS? They have a call provision, and they are exercising it. With the U.S. Gov’t backing, they can issue 18 month and 2 year paper at cheaper prices, or else just re-issue new paper with smaller handles.
SAS,
your friends at work or a scape goat for terminal production????
Mexican Senate Passes Bills to Reform Oil Industry
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=arnkqjZ56KZ4&refer=energy
Mexico’s Senate agreed to allow state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos to hire private companies to explore and drill for oil, casting its vote as riot police dealt with protesters blocking streets outside.
re: why the yen is a risk aversion strategy.
The yen has a very low interest rate so when times are good and people are looking to take some risks they will borrow yen and buy other assets that they expect to get a higher yield with such as other currencies that earn a higher interest rates, stocks, etc. When things go bad however such as what happened in the subprime market traders unwind those positions and buy back the yen that they sold causing the yen to rally. They unwind their positions either because they become more risk averse or because they are forced to because of losses and the resulting margin calls.
disclaimer: im a crazy man, who sits in a corner.
my question is..
as more and more people start to pull money out of places, where does this money go? i mean seriously, pulling a billion out of russia, for example, where would one even put that kind of asset value? its not like we’re paying any sort of interest these days, and our default risk is getting to be just as high!
but, i guess since we haven’t defaulted on our sovereign debt anytime recently, we are safe??
crack, man. crack.
I feel your pain crazy man. I am a crazy guy with a broom….
http://www.gabrielwetzstein.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/janitor.jpg
Stu @ 11:49 am
Advocating the murder of Senator Schumer is beyond the pale.
Hopefully such posts will be deleted…
Qwerty,
lighten up Francis.
Qwerty,
And can see that you are a fond supporter of the Patriot Act!
I got a couple of quotes for you guys out of the paper today, USA Today, that are just classic:
“She [Deramous] and her husband relocated to Stockton [California] from the Bay Area in 2000, buying a 2,400-square-foot home for $176,000. As home values soared, so did their spirits. They house appraised for $500,000 in 2006. They refinanced, took money out for a new car, vacations and other expenses. Now, they owe more than $300,000, and the house “is probably worth $176,000 again,” Deramous says. “It was foolish of us,” she says. “My parents never took money out.” Deramous hopes their lendier will lower their payments. It already has agreed to keep their interest rate at 7% vs the 9% it could go to.”
“Manuel Leighton, 63, stands behind the white picket fence he built around his yard. He and his first wife bought the home in 1998. The next year, his wife of 36 years died at home of breast cancer. Leighton remarried. Near the peak of the market, the house was appraised for $465,000. He and his wife refinanced three time in almost six years, each time taking out cash to pay for a pool that never got built. Now, Leighton laments the loss of his better judgement and that he owes $390,000 on a house worth far less. A house next door recently sold at auction for $365,000, he says. “That hurts me, I’m going to call the lender and see if they’ll redo my loan. If they can’t, I may end up walking.”
Ok, I read these stories and threw up a little in my mouth. I have been against cram-downs on mortgage principle because I believed that it would destroy housing and it certainly disincentivises me from buying if my neighbor’s mortgage gets a hair-cut and mine doesn’t.
A day or so ago my outlook began to change. What difference is it if the bank forcloses and then resells the home for 30% less or if they just write the principle down by 30%? As long as they fully document the write down in property records possibly and the owners credit score takes an appropriate hit.
Then I read these stories and it hardend my heart once again. These pieces of c r a p need to pay for their stupidity, take their houses and make them eat dog food.
They need to Reopen Alcatraz as a Prison exclusively for Crimes of Economic Treason. Ex Senator Gramm, Congressman Frank, Senator Schumer, Senator Dodd, and ex Fed Chief Greenspan can be the first group to serve the mandatory Life Sentence.
woopse, make that house next door to Leighton worth $265,000.
#237 Nicholas: have been against cram-downs on mortgage principle because I believed that it would destroy housing and it certainly disincentivises me from buying if my neighbor’s mortgage gets a hair-cut and mine doesn’t.
That is what I have been screaming about for the past couple of months. Adjusting rates is one thing, but kncoking off a chunk of the mtg!!!
That will destory housing, and it will factor in when I bid on a house, as in I will bid even less as an insurance premium. It will the realtors job to explain this to the would be seller.
Advocating someone’s murder, even if you disagree with them, is not humorous, and likely illegal.
As to your Patriot Act non sequitur, do note The Messiah supports it:
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=109&session=2&vote=00029
#237
“A day or so ago my outlook began to change. What difference is it if the bank forcloses and then resells the home for 30% less or if they just write the principle down by 30%? As long as they fully document the write down in property records possibly and the owners credit score takes an appropriate hit.”
Nicholas– I agree. Bankruptcy is very flexible and can be tailored to address individual circumstances. This is much better than an across the board reduction in principal for debtors in general, as has been proposed by some including the head of the FDIC. creditors could be given something like warrants to capture the upside as well (should that ever come into play)
Oil Futures 64.47 for December delivery.
#239
3b– I do not understand why reduction of mortgage principal in bankruptcy would reduce your bid any more than widespread foreclosures.
After reading those two stories it just makes no sense why someone could support principle reduction.
I can give some counter examples that would make sense.
A builder/lender sells houses in community where he is making $200,000 profit per SFH home. Sale slow and Builder/lender then starts to sell exact same homes in the community for $200,000 less just wrecking your investement. An owner says “hey, you overcharged me BIG TIME for this POS and I want some of my money back.”
A forced cram-down in this case would be appropirate but it would have to be levied against the builder/lender and not a mortgage company generically.
Charleston News 4: (for what it’s worth)
Commercial Real-Estate Suffering, More Empty Shopping Centers
“http://www.bearmarketinvestments.com/commercial-real-estate-4″
“Commercial real estate experts predict it will get worse before it gets better in 2009.”
Lawsuit would be the best way to handle that type of situation though.
And Qwerty…
Shoot me! (or arrest me for saying shoot me)
Nicholas:
Can the banks mail the keys back?
I think a bankruptcy judge could just be given recent comps for similar houses in the neighborhood and say to the creditor, you are only likely to get 70% of your claim if you were to liquidate today; the debtor can afford to make payments if you reduce principal by 30%, so that looks like a fair outcome.
qwerty,
really, relax man.
Saying ” i hope you get mugged and shot,choking to death in a pool of your own blood” may be tasteless but is far from illegal.
Note: said tasteless comment is directed at no one.
couple that with an understanding that the creditor would get any upside if the market turns around and would have the ability to foreclose if debtor fails to make scheduled payments under the plan
Washington Post has seemingly confirmed reports indicating that Treasury Secretary Paulson will begin initiating government stakes in regional banks. It stated that the Treasury plans to announce as early as this afternoon that as many as 22 regional banks have accepted capital injections from the government. Washington Post indicated that Capital One (COF 35.12, -0.59) and PNC Financial (PNC 58.55, +1.67) are on the list. So, too, are Regions Financial (RBF 9.48, -0.31) and KeyCorp (KEY 10.22, +0.15), according to the article.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/oct242008.html
great article on the current USD strength and the “disintegration” of the USEconomy from the rest of the world. this isn’t recession or depression… it’s disintegration. destruction of vital structures.
Skep,
Yes a bankrupcy judge could look at recent comps but the issue here is that the person blew the money frivolously on crap when they were supposed to build a pool with it.
No pool was built so the couple does jail time or has their wages garnished to repay the portion of the debt left unserviced.
I’m back in the camp now that wants these morons and thier children to be punished for reckless spending.
grim Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Cant wait to roll up my sleeves and build a national park or a dam! Had a dream last night that I was one of those high scalers that did the rockwork high above the Hoover Dam. Muscled and chiseled (think awards trophy or an art deco atlas shrugged), with a harem of WWII pin-up girls to wipe my brow while I worked.
WPA here we come!
Man I am jealous Some people have nice dreamns. I had a dream that My son was crying, than I woke up and he was….
Chrysler now is looking to slash an additional 25% of its white-collar workforce through voluntary retirements and salaried employee buyouts starting in November, while involuntary layoffs will be implemented by the end of December.
The company said the job cuts could reach 5,000 people.
Randy (253),
That article was damn scary. Thank you!
skep,
I’d support taxpayer-funded principal reductions if they contained any of these features.
1) Shared upside appreciation, taxpayers get an equity stake in the property.
2) Deed-restrictions on the property that limit upside appreciation and require the sale of the property to a qualified buyer under an “affordable housing” program.
3) Lien on the property equal to the principal reduction amount , to be payable upon sale (with interest) should there be sufficient funds to do so.
The key in either of these cases is to eliminate the ability of the current owner to show significant financial gains in the future.
Yes, I understand this medicine is tough to swallow.
PNC is going to use the “hot beef injection” from Paulson to buy Natinal City?
Grim,
What about requireing that the principle reduction be done by a competent third party?
Cough…Judge…Cough…Bankrupcy…Cough
The key in either of these cases is to eliminate the ability of the current owner to show significant financial gains in the future.
Yes, I understand this medicine is tough to swallow.
You know what most will say - If I can’t get a piece of future appreciation - why should I keep on paying…??? The whole Idea is to get something for free.
#254
“Yes a bankrupcy judge could look at recent comps but the issue here is that the person blew the money frivolously on crap when they were supposed to build a pool with it.
No pool was built so the couple does jail time or has their wages garnished to repay the portion of the debt left unserviced.
I’m back in the camp now that wants these morons and thier children to be punished for reckless spending.”
Nicholas– if the person was insolvent when he/she spent the money, the bankruptcy judge might be able to claw it back. but more fundamentally, the lender took a risk when it leant money to this person– does it really matter what the debtor used the money for?
Bankruptcy is about recognizing that there is not enough money to pay everything that is owed and putting a plan in place to maximize value of the estate for all concerned.
If this person becomes homeless (even temporarily), he/she could easily lose their job. I am not saying the mortgage lender should be forced to take more of a loss than it would if it foreclosed, but if it could simply take the same loss and the person gets to stay in the house, this seems to me to be better for everyone, including the other creditors who the debtor will be better able to pay since his life won’t be as screwed up overall
I think I mentioned a day or two ago that this “principle stake” in these companies should also prohibit them from making campaign contributions.
Why are we not thinking about conflict of interest here?
What about requireing that the principle reduction be done by a competent third party?
Assuming it isn’t the government that holds the note? The market would take care of itself.
You know what most will say - If I can’t get a piece of future appreciation - why should I keep on paying…??? The whole Idea is to get something for free.
Is this about keeping people in homes or about government-funded gambling?
#262 skeptic:but if it could simply take the same loss and the person gets to stay in the house, this seems to me to be better for everyone…………..
Except the people who played by the rules get nothing.Lets just reward bad behavior.
#256 Stu:And it will be much more if GM takes over. Which,leads me to believe these announced layoffs are in anticipation of the deal going through.
It is a bloodbath at my firm. 200 people let go today plus 100 yesterday. Am still hanging in there, maybe this will be my last fully employed weekend for a while :).
#258
“1) Shared upside appreciation, taxpayers get an equity stake in the property.
2) Deed-restrictions on the property that limit upside appreciation and require the sale of the property to a qualified buyer under an “affordable housing” program.
3) Lien on the property equal to the principal reduction amount , to be payable upon sale (with interest) should there be sufficient funds to do so.”
Grim– not sure I understand (2). Is this a way of creating subsidized housing for subsequent owners?
(1) makes sense to me, but with (3), I think you would have to be flexible in case the plan failed and the house needed to be sold. Having a lien on the property in the amount of the deficiency might prevent resale.
Assuming it isn’t the government that holds the note? The market would take care of itself.
Haven’t I heard before that the market would take care of itself? I’m not convinced that some self-serving a-hole and an incompetent finance industry are going to work this one out, even if it is in their own best interest to do so. I say treat it as a bankrupcy if it exceeds a threshold of thier income, i.e. you are insolvent.
From Reuters:
U.S. Treasury mulls insurer aid program-sources
The U.S. Treasury Department is closely studying how it could give relief to bond and mortgage insurance companies under a $700 billion financial services rescue package, two sources familiar with the deliberations said on Friday.
The Troubled Asset Relief Program established by Congress early this month has been seen mainly as a way to recapitalize banks and take bad assets off their books to help support creaking credit markets.
Last week, the Treasury tried to squash rumors the government was preparing to give monoline insurance companies a capital injection, but senior officials are considering how the Treasury might be able to aid state-regulated insurance companies, the sources said.
Skep-tic:
perhaps the borrower should have to work for the lender for free? Like washing dishes when you can’t pay for the check.
Scarcasm off.
What is scarcasm? Sorry ’bout that one. My grammar usually blows, but I’m usually careful about my spelling.
Stu (272) -
Or become his butler!!!
#266
“Except the people who played by the rules get nothing.Lets just reward bad behavior.”
unfortunately, the people who play by the rules have already been screwed and will be screwed either way. I am not advocating the bankruptcy thing as a giveaway to deadbeats. I really think it could reduce collateral damage brought about by foreclosures, at least some
Victorian (273):
“Or become his butler!!!”
Now you’re talking!
Grim– not sure I understand (2). Is this a way of creating subsidized housing for subsequent owners?
In a way, yes, but realize that the current owner stands to gain the most.
Instead of the current owner being able to profit from the windfall he or she received, that benefit would “ride with the land”, and pass on to the next qualified buyer. Resale limitations would prevent the property from being transferred or sold in the open market.
This would be a way to create “affordable housing” without building new properties.
The U.S. Treasury is taking a close look at opening its doors to insurers, automakers and subsidiaries of foreign banks or companies, according to two sources familiar with the deliberations.
Can I take a zero down zero interest loan out on a corvette soon and ask for a cram down on the principal repayment?
#272
Stu– maybe the judge could sentence the debtor to be the lienholder’s butler.
The U.S. Treasury is taking a close look at opening its doors to insurers, automakers and subsidiaries of foreign banks or companies, according to two sources familiar with the deliberations.
I hear they Treasury has got a line on a string of Dennys in Northern Florida.
“Stu– maybe the judge could sentence the debtor to be the lienholder’s butler.”
I like, I like!
Skep-tic (274):
“I really think it could reduce collateral damage brought about by foreclosures, at least some”
Didn’t we already go through this argument with you with Tarp and Bear and Lehman and AIG? :P
“Instead of the current owner being able to profit from the windfall he or she received, that benefit would “ride with the land”, and pass on to the next qualified buyer.”
that is very interesting. if this would be part of the deal, then I think the benefit should go to people who are in public service professions.
#281
“Didn’t we already go through this argument with you with Tarp and Bear and Lehman and AIG? :P”
It’s a variation of the same argument, I agree.
Im interested in making some trades (shorts and puts) anyone can recommend a company to go with?
Resale and income limitations are commonplace in affordable housing programs. This wouldn’t be much different.
I’m an absolute novice, so I might need to be babysat :)
“Im interested in making some trades (shorts and puts) anyone can recommend a company to go with?”
TD Ameristu…
“How can I help you Mr. Nicholas?”
#243 skeptic:I do not understand why reduction of mortgage principal in bankruptcy would reduce your bid any more than widespread foreclosures.
It will simply be another reason to bid lower, even if widespread foreclosures in the town where I buy are not a problem.
In fact I would add that reducing mtg principal may reduce wide spread mtg forclosure.
However, reducing mtg principal hurts me when I purchase, and so I need to bid even lower; my insurance premium.
I had an Ameritrade account a while back, didn’t seem to fit my needs, I lack proper investment instruction. I need an investment friend to teach me the ropes.
My parents went through bankrupcy three times when I was growing up, although it made me fiscally responsible, it did nothing to further my understanding of trading and markets.
I am just saying that a judge could only reduce principal to the level that the creditor would likely get in a foreclosure sale. it would have to be based on comps. if the creditor could come out ahead by foreclosing (i.e., if the debtor could not make payments even at the reduced level), then I think they should be allowed to foreclose.
If you are saying having this option available in bankruptcy would raise mortgage rates, then I agree. That would be a direct cost to the market and it would make sense to discount your bid in light of that.
Instead of the current owner being able to profit from the windfall he or she received, that benefit would “ride with the land”, and pass on to the next qualified buyer. Resale limitations would prevent the property from being transferred or sold in the open market.
This would be a way to create “affordable housing” without building new properties.
Who decides who will be the next buyer?? - I see already tons of possibility of seeing to your buddies/family members/gatting some cash “under the table”.
There are a lot of danger fo property not being eligible to be sold on the open market.
I do not understand why don’t just have a FK. Let market sort it all out.
Personally I would just let all FK happen - now the “owner” does nto have to pay any taxes on forgiven debt on the mnortagge - it is a get out of jail free card.
Anything else will onyl work if you give them money.
Can i Short/put COMEX as a whole?
“Im interested in making some trades (shorts and puts) anyone can recommend a company to go with?”
How about the king of shorts, Goldman. However, don’t attempt to short them. They’ll be a bounty for your head.
Who decides who will be the next buyer??
The same way buyers of “affordable homes” are selected today, qualified applicants put their name into a pool and are selected at random. The owner doesn’t get to decide who the home goes to after they leave, nor can they transfer it to friends or family.
Well I was specifically looking at shorting the tech industry, specifically companies with high P/E ratios.
I have a feeling that these companies are going to get hit big time by the recession. I know I work in the industry and shorting in what I do seems contrarian but I just don’t see why these companies are going to come out unscathed.
Mircosoft just released their earnings and were above expectations but they are downgrading expectations for next quarter. I think this recession is going to hit them hard.
Sooooo… I need a way to find out which tech stocks have high price to earnings ratios and place some bets that these guys stock is going down. I need an investment friend.
#291 skeptic: I am just saying that a judge could only reduce principal to the level that the creditor would likely get in a foreclosure sale.
But you really don’t know what the creditor might get until it actually goes to foreclosure. And what palyers woudl we have involved in this, realtors, appraisers etc.? Why should I pay x amount, for a house knowing that the guy acorss thr street in the same house could declare bankruptcy,and get a big chunk knockedd off his mtg,potentially wiping out my down pymt, but creating a nice affordable new and improved mtg for him?
Why don’t we just put a red bow on the package too?
I think I got modded for using the work M-soft Grim.
Sorry if this one was posted already, but thought it was interesting-
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/10/23/mortgages/
ANDREW CAPLIN: In most parts of the country, house prices are plummeting. Families are defaulting on their mortgages and being kicked out of their homes. That’s bad news for them, but also for us, because bonds issued on the backs of those mortgages are being bought by the government as part of the Wall Street bailout. The more borrowers who default, the less those bonds — our bonds — are worth. Future taxpayers — our children — are being condemned to a subprime future.
But there is a way out of this mess. Meet SAM. SAM is a shared appreciation mortgage, where the lender and the borrower essentially become stakeholders in the house, and where both profit when a home increases in value. SAM can reduce defaults and loan losses and give us taxpayers a fighting chance of coming out on top.
Here’s how: Imagine a family that took out a $200,000 mortgage but can only afford payments on a loan only three-quarters that size. The hole they’re in gets deeper when the value of the house falls. Rather than repossess the house the lender can opt to refinance the mortgage with a $150,000 SAM. That way, the lender gets something in exchange for the write-down: a significant share of any future appreciation in the house. So, if five years later, the house is sold into a recovered market for $200,000, the lender would get an appropriate share of that profit.
If we allowed SAM in this country, taxpayers would get a share of the appreciation in any houses that got written down. This would reduce the odds of the homeowner defaulting and increase the value of those bonds that you and I now own.
Tragically, as useful as SAMs could be to our economy, we can’t use them. The IRS imposed a block on SAMs nearly 40 years ago. But that block could be lifted with the stroke of the Treasury secretary’s pen. Henry Paulson should pick that pen up and save our children from a subprime future.
word rather.
#294 - Draconian, I know.
Why moderate for M-soft?
Nicholas,
I was kidding about Ameritrade. They blow, but they are cheap. I negotiated my trades (what few I have) down to $7, even though I don’t really qualify for the discount based on volume. Problem with Ameritrade is that I can never get online during market panics. Sure I can call in and use their automated system, but that is crap. I could only imagine what it would be like to try to enter a conditional trade through a touch tone phone. On the positive side, twice when I received bad trade prices, they made good once I proved it to them.
Seriously though, before you fart around with options, I would spend about a year practicing on a demo site. No one should learn to invest with real money. It is a huge mistake! Stay on the training sites until you can beat the indexes. Otherwise just invest regularly in a passive portfolio of low-cost ETFs.
Crude Oil brok 64$ a barrel. $63.76 for December delivery.
“Can i Short/put COMEX as a whole?”
Kettle,
The NYMEX, energies/metals was bought out by the CME. You can short/buy puts on the CME. Remember, you’ll be shorting the whole exchange.
I don’t mind gambling with *some* of my money.
3b– not saying you don’t have a point, but your argument can be used against bankruptcy generally. why pay full price for anything when someone can just buy that thing with credit and then declare bankruptcy and get the debt wiped out?
I am imagining a process where the lender could be free to submit evidence that it could get X value for the property in foreclosure. These guys are doing tons of foreclosures and will be for years. these properties are not so unique that it is impossible to get a decent idea of what they would go for at auction. again, if they can get more going this route, they should be free to do so. but if the losses will be the same either way, it seems to me that avoiding foreclosure is better for everyone that has an interest in the estate.
Green!
:)
i see DUG is up 8.5%..
might be time to get out before the market close rally
Bounce is due to the FEDs indicating that they are going to drop rates into the negative now?
hey grim -
up for drinks? i need some after this week.
That magic 3pm rally/dive is still in effect, apparently.
When do the equity markets close?
312 (nicholas) -
not late enough. ;)
#306 skeptic; Bankruptcy for CC/Auto debt is one thing, a house IMO is a totally different matter.
When do the equity markets close?
Might be a little early for you to be dabbling in options.
Yahoo Finance shows me Oil Futures but they run 30 mins late. Do they close at 4pm like the stock exchange?
I agree Grim but I’m a very fast learner. I just have yet to apply myself in that area. Thats why I’m looking for someone to brain drain, Vulcan style.
Nicholas (316) -
I don’t know where you’re trading, but trading on CME Globex - light sweet crude is open until 1715 ET
CLZ08.NYM Crude Oil Dec 08 64.12 2:42pm ET
Looks like I’m looking at the New York Mercantile Exchange
3pm I thought.
Nicholas…Gambling might give you a better return.
What time does the NYSE close?
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_time_does_the_NYSE_close
For many market centers, including the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange, and the Nasdaq Stock Market, regular trading sessions run from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Thanks for the advice Stu.
I would still like to be informed. I’m only watching oil futures because it seems to be a good indicator of what the general feel is for the next three months. I don’t intend to trade in it.
Production is being cut by OPEC but prices are still falling indicates that speculators are leaving the energy markets, warmer winter season, and recession are hitting.
Nicholas -
Also realize that the because Oil is traded in USD, the fall of the EUR/GBP will also lower the forward going prices of Crude in general.
Nic,
tele: 866.314.4483
code: 34833597
time: 3:30
Yes, I saw that too.
I’m would like to see some data that showed what percentage of the decrease in price is due to recession vs. rising dollar vs. speculation.
I would put bets on civil unrest in oil producing countries as demand drops and it throws their governments into cutbacks or insolvency.
#314 3b– you bring up an interesting point. I was thinking about this yesterday: maybe the entire method we have for financing housing is just out of date / unrealistic for today’s economy.
Yes, it is currently treated as if it is fundamentally different from other types of consumer finance such as credit cards, but is it really?
Look at what has just transpired– people used the equity in their homes as if it was a credit card in a widespread manner. Additionally, few people stay in houses for even 10 yrs, much less 30. Many homeowners seem to have little intention to EVER pay off their mortgage, just like they perpetually lease cars and never pay off their credit cards.
Maybe the 30 yr mortgage is just not a realistic method of financing homeownership anymore. People have no job security, move around a ton and have totally diff’t personal finance habits than they did when this product became the standard.
Grim,
Conference call?
Well, IIRC -
most of the OPEC countries need the oil prices to be above 50USD in order to balance their budgets (unlike our favourite hater, hugo chavez, who needs to be closer to 90USD) so, i’d imagine at some point they will do whatever they can to stem the tide..
Also, with things going the way they are, one wonders if that can be stopped at all?
Skep-tic:
The 30-year loan is fine as is. Banks need to require the 20% down payment and borrowers need to bring accurate credit profiling data to the closing. Put 40% down, get a better rate.
The exotic cr*p is what killed it.
Stu, Skep -
Perhaps the one fact is more something in the following thought pattern:
Some people just don’t have the capacity to ever take on the responsibility of owning a home (or any large credit instrument)
So I open my brokerage statement first time this week as I was away and I am up this week. Big muni bond rally and bank bond rally as rates are headed down. It felt so 2007 to see an up week I almost wet myself.
#327 skpetic; So what would you replace it with?
Maybe the 30 yr mortgage is just not a realistic method of financing homeownership anymore. People have no job security, move around a ton and have totally diff’t personal finance habits than they did when this product became the standard.
I agree 30 years mtg is soo otdated when average family moving every 7 years.
However there is very good, hundreds of years old, alternative to buying a house and paying off mortgage….
It is called …..
RENTING!!!!
outdated even
#330 Stu: In an environment where they are discussing reducing mtg amounts, I would think a prospective buyer should put the least amount of money down as possible.
Crazy, Nick,
The situation is worse then $50. The cost of new production averages close to $100. Oil can be sold for 50, 60, 30 becuase there is a significant amount of legacy infrastructure that is used in oil production and processing. The catch is that any damage to existing infrastructure can mean permanent reduction in output as it is not cost effective to replace the old infrastructure ( highly simplified).
Last i read russia needs oil sin the area of 70-80 just to cover current and promised expenditures.
The middle east is getting rocked due to inflation caused by being pegged to the US dollar. There has been a push for years to drop the peg but there has been some strong arming in order to maintain the peg. The peg is very much in our favor.
Notice the article i linked earlier today. russia is close to defaulting because of the reduced oil revenues as well as reduced commodities sin general since russia depends on natural resource extraction for a significant portion of its revenue.
The cut in production will probably have only a limited effect. Demand in india and China is about to fall through the floor. Once that happens oil demand will drop off more then standard cuts can counteract in the short term.
#333
“So what would you replace it with?”
I don’t know. maybe something shorter that people might actually be more inclined to pay off (like a 10 yr mortgage or even 7 yrs), or at least make it unlikely that market cycles would put people underwater. of course, this would drastically reduce homeownership and probably prices as well. but this might not be a bad thing.
skep,
A 7 or a 10, fixed? Good luck to John Q, making those payments.
The product is readily available. Just go with a 15 and prepay. I’ll have another shot, please.
Nick,
The effect of the dollar index vs supply&demand on oil prices seems to wax and wane. Both have effects . But consider that demand is driven by economic prosperity and economic prosperity was being based on the prosperity of the US dollar ( to some degree). The effects sem to be interlinked from what i have been looking at. I could be wrong these are just my opinions.
here are some charts
dollar index vs spot price
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SOplHD85ZEI/AAAAAAAAAqI/LWbBcD6iwGY/s1600-h/Dollar+Index+Update.bmp
spot vs supply/demand
http://bp1.blogger.com/_lsF4HSdqo04/SDgZlytc-mI/AAAAAAAAAVU/jASQKC35hqE/s1600-h/IEA+crude+supply+demand+price+rev2.JPG
OK, you are right that a 7 or 10 year mortgage is not realistic w/r/t current prices. Maybe a more realistic alternative would be something like what they have in the UK— long term leases.
#338 skeptic: Never happen in my opinion, or outright destruction of the housing mkt, at least in this area.
7 to 10 year loan, with 10K in property taxes????
I called a 300-500 down day with no exchanges going down and my prior called bottom holding before the market opened Mr. BC Bob, only a fool cals a bottom but I am a lucky fool.
Not only are there a lot of NJ plates in Charlotte lately but there are a lot of Florida Plates here lately and it doesn’t appear to be the seniors.
There is a bull market somewhere.
”
Not Randy Scheunemann, Mr. McC’s chief foreign policy adviser; not Nicolle Wallace, his senior communications staffer. It was Amy Strozzi, Gov. Sarah Palin’s traveling makeup artist, according to a new filing with the Federal Election Commission on Thursday night.
Ms. Strozzi, who was nominated for an Emmy award for her makeup work on the television show “So You Think You Can Dance?”, was paid $22,800 for the first two weeks of October alone, according to the records”
hey if we are being wild and crazy and talking about the ultimate destruction of the housing market for a generation, then maybe the old paradigm just doesn’t make sense anymore. do people by and large really act like they want to be tied down to a particular house for 30 yrs? maybe having the majority of americans own houses is not really in their best interest anymore
3b [343],
The world can’t even afford teaser rates, pay option’s, neg amort, etc.. A 7-10 fixed? Picture a prison crew, working on Rt 17, chain linked.
….not talking about Satin Dolls.
“maybe having the majority of americans own houses is not really in their best interest anymore”
skep,
You may be right. That option is available today, rent.
Grim,
Called that number and got nothing. I’m not sure what you intended.
Try email.
skep-tic Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
hey if we are being wild and crazy and talking about the ultimate destruction of the housing market for a generation, then maybe the old paradigm just doesn’t make sense anymore. do people by and large really act like they want to be tied down to a particular house for 30 yrs? maybe having the majority of americans own houses is not really in their best interest anymore
See some of the posts last year - we had this discussion - wheither or not home owning even make sense in current US economy.
I think Grim even put one of these posts into a headline.
I think good alternative to buying a single family residence would be buying stocks or REIT as a hedge agaist raising rents.
The only problem - is that REIT-gains and dividents are taxable while capital gains on primary residence are not (at least 1st 500K).
So this coutry Tax-code right now is encoraging buying a home.
OT;
Same prescription as taken on game, coach, days?
“Isiah Thomas Taken to Hospital for Overdose, WABC-TV Reports”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=a_Ioc51oiG.k&refer=home
Kettle,
Here are some of my thoughts to what your saying,
The catch is that any damage to existing infrastructure can mean permanent reduction in output as it is not cost effective to replace the old infrastructure ( highly simplified).
I called my trusty old sears repair man to come repair my washing machine, he told me it would cost 900$ to repair that piece-o-crap and that I should just buy a new one. Turns out 250$ and 6 hours of sweating fixed it up just fine.
I’m less inclined to believe that it will cost as much as the repair men say it will since for so long there has been a disconnect with hard, honest working people. They think that if the part doesn’t cost 5c and can’t be fixed in 30 minutes it is not worth fixing.
I laugh when they say that new production can’t be brought online for less then 100$ per barrel. Recession will teach them differently.
Clot (228) Thanks. That makes sense.
“Shore - Are you still coming to midtown? I hope I didnt post my recs too late for you.”
Sorry Gator, I missed seeing them. I will go back and look. We went to the Hotel Pierre. I used to love the Plaza, sniff.
Just a random thought - is it possible that the Saudis are scared out of their minds at the declining demand for their one and only product? They have no economy except for oil. Last I heard, the unemployment rate among their young men was 25%. Hmm…lots of young men with nothing to do, reduced income…hatred for the West. Sounds like a recipe for civil unrest AND more attacks on us. Nice. But hey, I’ve never been there so what do I know?
Because I did not loose my shirt today, I’m celebrating with this (even though I didn’t get stimulated by the 1st stimulus package):
http://www.ubergizmo.com/photos/2006/6/lg-mw-71py10.jpg
What is wrong with the destruction of home values. If I can get waterfront Southampton mansion or a midtown pied a tier for $5,000 bucks each it sounds like a great thing.
Nick,
that phone # from grim was a # for the Citadel conference call at 3:30
Oil….
Nick, i gossly simplified the issue. There are several factors from the lack of preventive maintenance over the last several decades to the EROEI of the oil itself.
As an example. There are a huge number of rigs in the GOM (gulf of mexico) that are 20 years old. The flow rate of oil out of these wells is so low that it doesnt justify the replacemt of the rig as they would never see a return in the investment.
In other areas, producers are using horizontal drilling to maintain production rates. Horizontal drilling can cost 2-3X what traditional vertical drilling does and that is an annual cost, not a 1 time fixed cost. for example a regular vertical rig can cost 600K/yr to run while a horizontal rig can run 1-2 million per year.
In other cases the grade of oil is dropping. The light sweet crude has been taken out of the easiest deposits and now they are extraction lower grades of oil which are worth less per until then the top grade light sweet crude.
another fatcor… if there are only 2 repair men and 50 people want them to work, they can demand a much higher wage. skills associated with oil infrastructure maintenance are in high demand and low supply.
once again this is very abbreviated but you get the idea.
Only in cases where the DJIA drops by at least 2,200 points after 2:00 p.m. will the market close for the rest of the day. And if the plunge is 3,350 points or more, the market closes no matter how late in the trading day it is.
From the FDIC:
Stearns Bank, National Association Acquires the Insured Deposits of Alpha Bank & Trust, Alpharetta, GA
Alpha Bank and Trust, Alpharetta, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Stearns Bank, National Association, St. Cloud, Minnesota, to assume the insured deposits of Alpha Bank & Trust.
The two branches of Alpha Bank & Trust will open on Monday, October 27, 2008 as Stearns Bank, N.A. Depositors of the failed bank will automatically become depositors of Stearns Bank, N.A. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship to retain their deposit insurance coverage.
BREAKING NEWS FROM THE WSJ:
The Star-Ledger newspaper in New Jersey said about 40% of its newsroom staff will depart in a buyout wave, among the steepest cuts in the continued downsizing of the newspaper industry.
Passaic, be proud:
From Forbes:
Northeast posts only September sales decline in US
Sales in the three metro areas of New York all showed price declines between 5 percent and 6 percent. New York metro sales fell 9 percent, while prices dipped to $422,000, according to the AP-Re/Max report. Sales volume in Hartford, Conn. was off 15 percent, and median sales price fell to $225,000.
Sales in Passaic, N.J., tumbled the most of all Northeast cities, falling 25 percent. Prices dipped more than 5 percent to $350,000.
JB [361],
Hope Sam is OK.
anyone think that there is something to E. Howard Hunt’s deathbed confession?
SAS
kettle -
whilst i do agree that from an infrastructure POV that alot of the current available pumping/supply side is a bit predicated on the sustainment of the current infrastructure and that if it were to blow (or otherwise be decimated) that there would be a dropoff - don’t you think that the scarcity of oil in general would at some point allow for the infrastructure refresh?
and, on the grade of oil being extracted matter - understandably that the current crude that is being extracted is shifting towards mostly on the heavy oil (due to the discoveries in venezuela, canada, etc) - both actual orinoco extra-heavy, along with tar sands, etc .. one would assume that with the current availability of oil (and the moving scarcity of light sweet) that at some point, the oil pricing has to be moved up due to the availability of processable oil in general, no?
i mean, once we “run out” of light sweet, one can no longer price oil at the lower levels, and must move up - just due to the general development/processing cost - i mean, would they just suddenly stop using oil??
Star Ledger cuts.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122488259271667855.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
You’re new here, Stu does that all the time and he’s threatened me several times. He needs to get detained for questioning about that and a number of other statements that he’s made here.
Qwerty Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Advocating someone’s murder, even if you disagree with them, is not humorous, and likely illegal.
I’m starting to think along the lines of that Frank bloke.
My outfit is very busy. we have too much work to do, well into 09. I am going to even have to hire up another team.
The sky isn’t falling. ALthough, it hurts when it hails golf size hail, and your out laying necked.
SAS
lol, don’t get it ot your head Frank.
I am just giving you a slight pat on the back.
RE is still coming down.
and I have been saying from day 1, and many of you blokes on this board laughed at me, or said “sas, your such a fool”.
but, hark…
Its only a matter of time, before people’s loans get called.
SAS
ok, off to get some tacos.
SAS
You’re a cruel and cold hearted person. Your fellow Americans, as described here, were trying to support their country but they got undermined by a bunch of terrorists who decided to upend the real estate markets because they wanted to get a home on the cheap. It’s these individuals who you need to be hard hearted with. They were the ones who created this problem and disrupted a good situation.
It will be a cold day in hell the day I sell my house to anyone here.
Nicholas Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
I got a couple of quotes for you guys out of the paper today, USA Today, that are just classic:
“She [Deramous] and her husband relocated to Stockton [California] from the Bay Area in 2000, buying a 2,400-square-foot home for $176,000. As home values soared, so did their spirits. They house appraised for $500,000 in 2006. They refinanced, took money out for a new car, vacations and other expenses. Now, they owe more than $300,000, and the house “is probably worth $176,000 again,” Deramous says. “It was foolish of us,” she says…. “..Then I read these stories and it hardend my heart once again. These pieces of c r a p need to pay for their stupidity, take their houses and make them eat dog food.
Crazy man
“don’t you think that the scarcity of oil in general would at some point allow for the infrastructure refresh?”
yes, but the long term effect is to make marginal oil deposits financially unattractive, as the cost of upgrades and replacement will push the operational costs higher, meaning that oil producers need a higher support price.
Tell you what. There’s one good thing about this crisis and that’s the unintended targets. I’m so glad to see those commies in Russia struggling. That’s what they get for jumping bad in Georgia. I also love that the fact that those leftist terrorist regimes that form OPEC are scurrying around now. Serves all of them right.
50.5,
Glad to see you back. I was starting to get worried.
When my ex-worked at GS that was her biggest complaint. Half the people could be out of that place at 7 but they feel they need to hang around until 9-9:30 at the minumum to put on a show. Only plus was the free dinner and limo ride home.
This is a NY thing. At the magazine i worked at, 3 nights a week it was a nightmare. Even if you had something that could have been solved over email or the phone, they wanted you in there until the bitter end. The free food and towncar ride home were a major plus … but it annoyed me to no end.
You have enough time on your hands to … start planning your own business …
Had the day off, stopped by Linens N Things this afternoon to check out the liquidation. What a crock; about 90% of the store is only marked down 10%; it’s the equivalent of the RE sellers still listing their homes at 2005-2006 prices. I guess they think since they are the first chain to have to liquidate they have some bargaining room :)
Charles Millard of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp testified before Congress today and said the PBGC has a $14 billion shortfall. This is the gov’t agency that pays the pensions of employees of companies that go bankrupt. Oh well, just print more money and pass it out. Except that at some point WE pass out.
to 377, HEHEHE
Don’t worry, their prices will come down soon enough. Be patient.
#369 sas:I’m starting to think along the lines of that Frank bloke.
You shouldn’t.This thing is picking up more and more speed everyday.
Rome was not built or should I say destroyed in a day.
#374 re-mtg-modifiaction: also love that the fact that those leftist terrorist regimes that form OPEC are scurrying around now. Serves all of them right.
Yeah you are right, and that includes our own terrorist leftist regime.
Comp Killer in blue Ribbon Town (they never go down in price, right?)
7 Cobblestone Lane, Upper Saddle River
Sold in 2002 for $1.685mm
Asking: $1.549mm
Cheap house, and a mere $30k in taxes!
kettle -
i dont disagree there either, at some point those operational costs must make it into market pricing.
im just curious to know whether or not oil production firms have their own hedge funds which prop up oil pricing - as much as im sure some of the FS firms during this crisis had “third party” alternative investment vehicles which were shorting themselves ;)
Orion Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Clot (228) Thanks. That makes sense.
Clot is so omnipotent here that he even gets thanks for my posts. WTF? Jedi mind tricks?
kettle1 Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Nick, that phone # from grim was a # for the Citadel conference call at 3:30
Oil….
In other areas, producers are using horizontal drilling to maintain production rates. Horizontal drilling can cost 2-3X what traditional vertical drilling does and that is an annual cost, not a 1 time fixed cost.
WHERE IS JOHN WHEN YOU NEED HIM?
385 LOL!!
I came to a sad realization—-The United States….we ARE the bad guys.
Nicholas Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Well I was specifically looking at shorting the tech industry, specifically companies with high P/E ratios.
I have a feeling that these companies are going to get hit big time by the recession. I know I work in the industry and shorting in what I do seems contrarian but I just don’t see why these companies are going to come out unscathed.
Sooooo… I need a way to find out which tech stocks have high price to earnings ratios and place some bets that these guys stock is going down. I need an investment friend.
NICK: I’LL BE YOUR BIGGEST FRIEND EVER….RIGHT NOW IN THIS POST. YOUR INVESTMENT THESIS IS ABOUT 12 MONTHS TOO LATE. YOU WILL BE FRIED ALIVE. SAVE YOUR MONEY.
IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, I WOULD ONLY BE WRITING AND POCKETING PREMIUMS. ULTIMATELY, I WOULD BE SELLING SHORT STRADDLES IN A CONSERVATIVE FASHION (yes and oxymoron) WITH OUT OF THE MONEY STRIKES ON BOTH SIDES.
grim unmod….
chifi 384,
what did i say that was incorrect?
http://www.timberlinelodge.com/index.php
(212) Grim
WPA projects - Do you ski?
I heard the “We Buy Homes for Cash” investors and RE investment clubs are loving this site. They all direct distressed sellers to this blog for there advantage. I wonder what the real purpose of this blog is?
“Rome was not built or should I say destroyed in a day”
yup, I know bloke. I think I was a little skippy when I said I was in somewhat in agreement w/ that Frank chap.
I do think things are going to get alot worse before better.
But, tis true my working outfit is busy. I come with a headache, eyes hurt, and a sore throat from yelling at the top of my lungs to get my point across.
hehe..some habits die hard:)
SAS
People like you need to be horse whipped. What the hell did you go there in the first damn place if you weren’t planning on buying something? You’re just like some lowdown vulture slinking around trying to grab a meal after the someone else did the damn hunting except in your case, you prefer to sneak up on some damn roadkill.
HEHEHE Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Had the day off, stopped by Linens N Things this afternoon to check out the liquidation. What a crock; about 90% of the store is only marked down 10%; it’s the equivalent of the RE sellers still listing their homes at 2005-2006 prices. I guess they think since they are the first chain to have to liquidate they have some bargaining room :)
“I’m so glad to see those commies in Russia struggling”
easy bloke. alot of good people in Russia.
what cold war is dead, or should I say, there never really was one. It was a total hyped hoax. and I should know, cause I helped it along selling hardware… too much dismay.
Does’t matter if Russians, americans, or some guy in cave with a beard wearing a night sheet. We all get screwed by the man!
SAS
“I came to a sad realization—-The United States….we ARE the bad guys”
sort of, our govt has been taken over by major crime syndicates, and corporations that will screw your mother and pass her around.
We, the people, are somewhat to blame because we became fat, stupid, and lazy.
Its time we change!
Bottom up change.
not the slinging cain change that puppet omama is saying.
SAS
“I came to a sad realization—-The United States….we ARE the bad guys”
best I don’t tell you some of the things I saw while in service. Especially down in Chilie. man alive!
SAS
“Naomi Wolf ’s End of America is a vivid, urgent, mandatory wake-up call that addresses momentous issues of tyranny, democracy, and survival”
HC
cindy
Calpers mulls raising rates if it posts loss
SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The largest U.S. public pension fund may need to tap California’s public employers for more money if it does not reverse its steep investment losses of recent months, a fund spokesman said on Thursday.
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, best known as Calpers, has seen its assets decline by more than 20 percent, or around $50 billion, from the beginning of this fiscal year through Oct. 10 to stand at $190 billion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2348472220081023
“Especially down in Chilie.”
So, what happened in Chile? Chicago U was so happy that Milton Friedman’s theories were applied down there and thousands of civilians were murdered.
In fact, the U is still debating what to name its economics dept.
HC
(396) Kettle - Thanks - I’m CalSTRS
…They are supposedly in better shape. It is a defined benefits program.
keep your eyes on the pension funds newsfront.
also, pension funds managers are also known to be involved in dirty tricks.
i,e TIAA-CREF.
TIAA-CREF made huge money, by shorting NY, and long Chicago.
but hey, what do I know..
SAS
“Milton Friedman’s theories were applied down”
applied, ha ha, yeah right.
more like, applied with a Colt 45 down your throat. and I ain’t talking the Colt that the brothers up in Harlem swill while they roll the dice.
SAS
This country did a bad wrong to Chilie.
ok, enough about that.
SAS
SAS,
whats up with the IMF bailing everyone out? nations anyway? I keep reading vague descriptions of contingencies that these loans come with such as
“The loan’s terms have not yet been finalised, but are likely to include restrictions on Iceland’s monetary ”
whats the real catch?
the guys on here who are buying physical gold, can i ask where from?
not really down with buying from a pawn shop.
yes, that kitco piece has me itching to get some now rather than later
buying up assests while money still has value.
SAS
SAS
but will the IMF really be able to enforce its claim is we see a fall of the west and rise of the east as some have suggested
yikes,
depends on the amount you want. i have found a few local guys just by getting a list of local coin dealers and calling around.
dont expect to get spot price though gold seems to be going for 800 - 1000 / ounce if you can find it
interesting new trend????
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/23/pf/college/student_loan_fugitives/index.htm
Student loan fugitives
When faced with unaffordable monthly payments and relentless creditors, some see leaving the country as their only way out.
NEW YORK (CNN) — Carl, a Florida native now living overseas, is afraid to move back to the United States. That’s because he can’t afford to pay his student loans.
Carl (who doesn’t want his last name used) stopped making his $450 monthly payments after his family incurred some unexpected medical expenses, and his $55,000 private loans went into default. That’s when the phone calls from debt collectors started, and Carl decided not to come back.
“It was made clear that if I ever came home, I’m screwed,” says Carl.
Chris left the country to help pay his debt, not to avoid it. But when that didn’t work out, he saw his foreign address as the only way to escape.
Chris (who doesn’t want his last name used) graduated with about $160,000 in student loan debt with a master’s degree in music.
“At the time I thought I could handle it. I thought the most I’d be paying was $600 a month,” he says.
But his payments were $2,400 a month. So Chris started looking for jobs overseas. He thought he’d be able to earn more and pay off his loans. But it didn’t turn out that way. His salary was even less than what he was making back home. He realized there was no way he could make his payments, so he changed his address.
“They think I’m living somewhere in Arizona,” he says. His last payment was a year and a half ago.
“will the IMF really be able to enforce its claim is we see a fall of the west and rise of the east as some have suggested”
I do not know. Things have to unravel a little more. But, I am still on the fence with the east.
I know China has been on the rise, and I have been there several times (putting off going again), the development, attitudes, and advancement is incredible.
But, some locals in China tell me there is a China RE bubble too, because people were getting loans for 60x salary.
we will see.
but, I do know, the first day you see or hear of troops (foreign or domestic) employed to “protect assets”… you high tail your ass to an unknown place.
doubt it will ever happen, but just some of sas’s words of wisdom.
SAS
I got some silver from Don McAlvany about 6 years ago. He was a straight shooter.
SAS
oh yeah, talked to a lady today, claims that she stopped paying her mortgage 4 years ago! and she is damn proud of it.
not once has a sheriff paid her a visit.
SAS
You know, Sas, I’ve been watching you for some time here with deep suspicions about your damn loyalties and you’ve just confirmed my suspicions with your embrace of these damn commies. Also, you’ve made some other statements that smack of a “hate America first” philosophy. Let me tell you something, this damn country is a force for good in this damn world so don’t try to suggest that we’ve done anything wrong. I won’t allow it.
sas Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
“I’m so glad to see those commies in Russia struggling”
easy bloke. alot of good people in Russia.
what cold war is dead, or should I say, there never really was one. It was a total hyped hoax. and I should know, cause I helped it along selling hardware… too much dismay.
Does’t matter if Russians, americans, or some guy in cave with a beard wearing a night sheet. We all get screwed by the man!
SAS
SAS,
From some of the data i have dug through, i think that in the short term china may fare better then the west, but could be in more trouble with systemic issues. i.e water supply, environmental degradation, male overpopulation…..
“you’ve made some other statements that smack of a “hate America first” philosophy. Let me tell you something, this damn country is a force for good in this damn world so don’t try to suggest that we’ve done anything wrong. I won’t allow it”
you know RE investor, you have spunk, which I like. I will give you that.
When I was in Moscow, your right, there were those damn commies!
however, there were also “those damn commies”, that were drafted because they were poor people, enrolled in a military they didn’t want to be in, and believed americans were decent people and just wanted to be home with family or their girlfriends.
To paint everyone with broad strokes leads to breakdown of diplomacy, wars, and civil unrest.
SAS
kettle1,
I believe we are on the same page.
I agree with what you say about China.
After my new grankid is born in March, my wife & I are seriously talking about adopting a child from China.
yup, I know, I will be working till I circle the drain. I am well aware of that.
:)
SAS
and for you blokes out there that don’t think we have a draft in this country…you best think again.
Its an economical draft.
any brother from the inner city, or white bread from BFE, Kansas will test for that.
SAS
kettle - i dont mind paying 800-1000. i have some leftover from the SKF victory dance (cashed out) and im just looking for a reliable online outfit where you guys have ordered from.
WHAT!!?? You spoke with them!!??
You’re way worst than I thought. A damn Marxist-Leninist sympathizer. Let me tell you something, those damn commies ain’t like us and you can’t discuss nothing with them. Why in the hell weren’t you taking care of what you were supposed to be taking care of over there? Your damn job didn’t entail you getting cozy with the damn enemy.
You need to be detained.
sas Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
“you’ve made some other statements that smack of a “hate America first” philosophy. Let me tell you something, this damn country is a force for good in this damn world so don’t try to suggest that we’ve done anything wrong. I won’t allow it”
you know RE investor, you have spunk, which I like. I will give you that.
When I was in Moscow, your right, there were those damn commies!
however, there were also “those damn commies”, that were drafted because they were poor people, enrolled in a military they didn’t want to be in, and believed americans were decent people and just wanted to be home with family or their girlfriends.
To paint everyone with broad strokes leads to breakdown of diplomacy, wars, and civil unrest.
SAS
[210] jcer,
“I don’t understand it but I guess my situation is different in that I made it clear to my firm that if I wasn’t treated well , I could leave and while I was looking to leave I would not be supporting my production system and no one else knows how to keep it running(Undocumented, the original architect was my boss until he quit)”
shame on you. you write poor unmaintainable code to keep your job. if i were your boss i’d train up a newbie and fire your ass. this is the problem with some people in IT. they all think they’re hot shit on wall street but they’re just back office.
yikes,
i havent bought online, only face to face in a physical store
ha ha.ok..ok
will the real “reinvestor101″ please stand up?
didn’t just fall off the turnip truck bloke.
SAS
SAS
i like the sound of your world, where do i apply ;)
langley, georgia, dc????
“i like the sound of your world, where do i apply”
careful now, reinvestor101 might call for you to be detained.
SAS
SAS,
he already has. to late…..
well, I’ve been on the puter for sometime now. I best give me my dog, Indiana Bones, a walk before bed.
Indiana Bones is a German wired hair pointer, got from a shelter in Wyoming.
She was abused as a pup. had spots of hair pulled out, with a broken rear leg.
but rest assured, wyo is a small place, wasn’t too hard to find whom abused my dog as a pup.
Indiana Bones and I paid a nice little visit that night.
Night blokes,
SAS
Grim 362 - Re the Star Ledger buyout - it was a pretty generous offer. I believe it was a full year’s pay plus other benefits. Star Ledger is a union shop.
The offer at the Staten Island Advance, another Newhouse paper, was not so generous. Advance employees were offered 2 weeks for every year of service. There are no unionized employees at the Advance. Newhouse promised the employees that they would never layoff staff for economic or technology reasons if the employees rejected the unions. I believe this buyout is their first in history.
Gator pronounces the Press Your Luck slots the SRS of the casinos. Tripled my money in 5 minutes. Too bad I was only playing nickels :)
Big bucks. No Whammies.
A little video music for a Fall Weekend…
http://hoboken411.com/archives/14507
BC Bob - Here’s parking info for the Montclair Wellmont compliments of Baristanet. Most of the parking is NOT close.
http://www.baristanet.com/2008/10/wellmont_where_ya_gonna_park.php#more
I was able to make settlement on my house yesterday. The encroachment issue was solved when the neighbors finally signed a License Agreement to have insurance on the small part of my property they are encroaching on and that they won’t rebuilt once the deck needs replacement. That seemed like the best solution.
I was able to make settlement on my house yesterday. The encroachment issue was solved when the neighbors finally signed a License Agreement to have insurance on the small part of my property they are encroaching on and that they won’t rebuilt once the deck needs replacement. That seemed like the best solution.
#407 kettle1,
160k in debt for a master’s in music? WTF? What are the odds someone with a masters in music can make a good living in that field?
looks like more evidence of the education bubble.
#412 kettle1,
Here’s a nonviolent, centuries old solution for male overpopulation.
http://us.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/24/polygamy.investigation/index.html
The banks are having their way with Americans. They are the true terrorists.
In point of fact, the dirty little secret of the banking industry is that it has no intention of using the money to make new loans. But this executive was the first insider who’s been indiscreet enough to say it within earshot of a journalist.
(He didn’t mean to, of course, but I obtained the call-in number and listened to a recording.)
“Twenty-five billion dollars is obviously going to help the folks who are struggling more than Chase,” he began. “What we do think it will help us do is perhaps be a little bit more active on the acquisition side or opportunistic side for some banks who are still struggling. And I would not assume that we are done on the acquisition side just because of the Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns mergers. I think there are going to be some great opportunities for us to grow in this environment, and I think we have an opportunity to use that $25 billion in that way and obviously depending on whether recession turns into depression or what happens in the future, you know, we have that as a backstop.”
barien,
polygamy is fine. the issue is that males between the age of 18-30 tend to be restless, agressice, and risk toleranet unless they have a female they risk losing
barien,
polygamy is fine. the issue is that males between the age of 18-30 tend to be restless, aggressive, and risk tolerant unless they have a female they risk losing. This tends towards civil unrest. polygamy doesnt fully solve the problem but may buy time. consider that ultimately you are dealing with the innate desire to reproduce the drive to win a mate. not drives/instincts easily surpressed
If Americans put off purchases until they have saved for them, the products can still be produced - consumed, you just have to wait. We need to take out the “immediate gratification” model - the reliance on credit for purchases.
Many already live this way. It is nothing new. What will be new is getting the millions on board who haved never viewed their household budgets in this way.
So there would be a “gap” between the present and the time when “saved” funds could be used by consumers. By some measures, retailers are already reducing future inventories in anticipation of a spending gap.
It isn’t the death of consumption or production - It is really just the idea of consumption “now” vs. consumption “later.”
Instead of harping on inflating a credit bubble, and rescuing banks - TARP funds could be used to get us to that place. The American public would have to see the positive, productive outlook for our country as well. Maybe we could export something the emerging markets need.
Somehow, we need to get the banking industry to a place - where they can be trusted - who will stand/ who will fall. American workers can save - consume less for now. Make it attractive to save and the populace would give banks the capital infusion they need.
Focus - I feel we have our focus on the wrong issues. We cannot return to the “I want it all and I want it now” mentality. It is time to buckle down and save - produce extra - consume less.
I was around when JFK was president. I had to “duck and cover” practice during the Bay of Pigs and I still remember being sent home from school (JH) when he was assasinated.
If only we were of the mind - the collective spirit - he was able to evoke with….
“Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” I’m telling you, we can change - Americans can adapt. We are really good at it.
Gator,
I missed your recomendations the other day but need to be back in the area of the library early in the week so may take advantage of them then.
“It isn’t the death of consumption or production ”
With any luck, it will be the death of consuming things one cannot afford in the first place.
“claims that she stopped paying her mortgage 4 years ago! and she is damn proud of it. not once has a sheriff paid her a visit.”
Same here, but, in our case, we stopped paying because it was paid in full.
Wonder if someone at Marcal has got incriminating pictures of Jon.
Marcal Paper Mills to receive $209,600 training grant
Marcal Paper Mills will receive a $209,600 training grant from the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
Governor Corzine toured the company’s plant today and praised Marcal for keeping about 900 jobs in the Garden State.
“During these hard economic times, it is crucial that we work in partnership with companies like Marcal to build the strongest and most productive workforce possible to keep New Jersey businesses competitive,” Corzine said.
To Cindy, 438:
Please…
If Kennedy hadn’t been killed he would have gone down as a failure as a President. Please remember that he got us into Vietnam and almost got us into a nuclear war because of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Of course the Bay of Pigs made us lose face world wide at the height of the Cold War. All the Kennedy mystic is just marketing that took place after his death.
————————————
If only we were of the mind - the collective spirit - he was able to evoke with….
“Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” I’m telling you, we can change - Americans can adapt. We are really good at it.
BC Bob #77
Go for the beer. Beer will always have value…
BC Bob Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 9:05 am
“citi is 12 bucks a share”
Do I buy a case of Beck’s or 2 shares of C?
Grim,
This week’s report from the hinterlands…
Hunterdon County Comp Killers
GSMLS recorded just 11 sales in Hunterdon County this week. Only one made this list, but its a doozy. Doubleheader - Comp Killer and Lowball all wrapped up into one:
MLS#: 2455545
105 OLD FARM ROAD
Holland Twp
SLD: 11/16/04 $570,000
OLP: 10/22/07 $665,000
SLD: 10/22/08 $475,000
DOM: 340
Cindy (438)-
‘If only we were of the mind - the collective spirit - he was able to evoke with….
“Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” I’m telling you, we can change - Americans can adapt. We are really good at it.’
Too bad this will only come when 80% of the population is wearing potato sacks and singing Woody Guthrie songs around trash barrel fires.
Before we get to this place, you can also count on the fact that we will- either by vote or revolt- attempt to give ourselves the ultimate in bread and circuses.
FYI to all hinterland folks:
The Hunterdon County Sheriff’s Office finally entered the 21st century and put Sheriff’s sales online. Here’s the link:
http://www.co.hunterdon.nj.us/sheriff/sales.htm
Cindy (438)-
In the 1930’s, there was no “Entertainment Tonight” or “Extra”, feeding the life of bling to the sheeple 24/7.
Living large is just another point on most Americans’ list of entitlements. Take it away, and things are going to become very dangerous.
I watched LA burn post-Rodney King. Hell, I watched the looting and talked to several looters. They weren’t doing it over their sense of injustice about the verdict. They just wanted to get a bunch of stuff.
beer (447)-
A milestone in human accomplishment has been reached.
(443) Jersey
Actually, it was Eisenhauer who entered Viet Nam - yes Kennedy increased the troops but thought better of it and was to withdraw 1,000 troops (NSAM #263) but Johnson changed that order when he became president.
At any rate - sure he made all sorts of mistakes - I know… I was doing “duck and cover” exercises all through junior high…. that isn’t what I am referring to here. I was very impressionable at the time (10 - 14) he was on the political scene and believe me - there was a belief that with this man as our leader, we could do anything.
My point is that Americans crave leadership…and they know how to adapt.
Clotpoll
Amen, brother.
(448) Clot - All of the bling is so “yesterday.” Frugal is in.
We have seen some crap - huh. American survives - that’s my point. We are still here…
Cindy (450)-
Weimar Germany craved leadership, too.
(453) Clot - Hyperinflation worries? How long do you think?
Deflation - then a hop to hyperinflation?…How does that work? What derails it?
beer (451)-
What does that say about the future anticipated rate of foreclosure in our highest-median-family-income county?
They’re not just doing this for sh*its and giggles…
Cindy (454)-
My (453) was a reference to Adolf.
I think at some point a year or so from now, the hyperinflation being induced by Bergabe and Klink will be evident in a few sectors of the economy.
However, it appears that deflation/deleveraging has already squelched its effects…and will continue to do so.
We’ve jumped straight into the biggest deflationary credit crisis in 75 years, and no amount of hyperinflation can stanch it. The numbers- and effects- of the deflation are too much to overcome, because the whole planet is so deep into it in a completely correlated way.
The real pain will start when everybody realizes that no amount of inflation can produce even the illusion of economic growth.
Then the trash barrel fires will begin.
Cindy- 450:
I think it is more like they are like sheep ready to follow whoever comes along. I hope you are able to pull out of your 1960s flashback and come back to reality.
————————————
My point is that Americans crave leadership…and they know how to adapt.
Unbelievable. Isiah tossed his daughter under the bus on the OD thing yesterday. Said it was her, not him. Guess he mistook her for Jamaal Crawford in the ambulance.
Buddy of mine said all this must’ve happened when Isiah got his copy of last year’s Knicks season video.
Anybody who watches that many Knicks games should never need Lunesta.
Clotpoll 455
Agreed. The train is coming and woe to those who can’t get off the tracks…
(458) Jersey
Part of my “60’s flashback” is related to a time when you saved money before spending it. Credit was used sparingly. You trusted banks. All good memories, no?
Grim,
Hinterlands report part 2…
Hunterdon County FUTURE Comp Killers
GSMLS recorded 38 new actives in Hunterdon County this week. Three made this list:
MLS#: 2594445
10 MANNING CT
High Bridge Boro
SLD: 09/24/04 $425,000
OLP: 10/24/08 $399,900
DOM: 1
MLS#: 2593466
66 KENTWORTH CT
Raritan Twp
SLD: 05/09/05 $381,000
OLP: 10/21/08 $359,900
DOM: 4
MLS#: 2592842
@ LISA LN
Union Twp
SLD: 05/03/06 $530,000
OLP: 10/21/08 $475,000
That should be 2 Lisa Lane in Union.
(456) Clot “We’ve jumped straight into the biggest deflationary crisis in 75 years..”
And I don’t think encouraging folks to use credit is the best way to change the cycle…
It is time to exchange meatloaf recipes and deal with it…
But none of our leaders are currently sending that message…
That is all I was referring back to. A time when a leader had the power to level with Americans and make a difference.
Is it just me or was yesterday’s action in the markets very strange? We were limit down for hours, then the usual flopping around to close only 300plus down. I know the Dow is a sideshow but it’s like someone or something is stopping the deluge. It just didn’t seem normal to me but maybe I just need to get out more and pay less attention to this stuff.
Obviously, money isn’t my prime motivator in life. I teach - I make pennies. But believe it or not - I went into teaching because I truly thought I could make the world a better place to live.
I know you all laugh at me and my idealistic point of view. But every day I help one child or another - that is worth all of the money in the world to me.
It is very stressful work. You are so personally invested that your heart is broken every day…and some days lifted.
So as I send children out to face the world - am I to tell them - all hope is lost….may as well just pack it in..no need to learn to read…go home to your video games. Or…can I at least tell them that they have not failed if they are still trying.
My questions are focused on “How can we solve the problem?” In reality - with the world as it is - What needs to be done now?
# skep-tic Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
“the debtor can afford to make payments if you reduce principal by 30%, so that looks like a fair outcome.”
Wait a sec - did I just see you use the word “fair”? Weren’t you railing against Ogilvy and his use of the word?
Skep - you do realise don’t you that what you are advocating is pure s0cialism?
“To each according to his needs, from each according to his ability.”
Sorry. That would actually be c0mmunism. For the good of the whole and all that.
Grim - 467 in mod. NO idea why.
Well now I’m nothing more than a crying mess. I do seek out this venue - on purpose - to see the other side of the coin…to know what the worst case scenarios look like - and when you tell me..I can’t handle it.
426 NJGator - The Ledger drivers are union, but the newsroom is not. Apparently, the buyouts were based on a provision in the employee handbook - I’m surprised they even honored it.
The buyout package is sweet - but what will happen to those who are looking for a new job and don’t want to uproot their families? The Record has been running a very tight ship for the past couple of years.
# Outofstater Says:
October 24th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
“Last I heard, the unemployment rate among their young men was 25%. Hmm…lots of young men with nothing to do, reduced income…hatred for the West. Sounds like a recipe for civil unrest AND more attacks on us. Nice. But hey, I’ve never been there so what do I know?”
Saudi Arabia uses a lot of cheap imported labour. If their spoiled “princes” were sent to get their hands dirty their country would be a much healthier place.
I would keep my eye on Egypt though. Lots of bored, well educated and well-off youth who can’t find suitable jobs and as a result, can’t marry. Getting angry and nothing to do and living in what is essentially a dictatorship.
407 - $160,000 for a masters in music? Guy deserves to be chased down for stupidity.
Perhaps, once we see this in NJ, it wil be a sign that it is time to invest in NJ RE.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/us/25garage.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin
MANTECA, Calif. — As the classified ads put it, everything must go. Socks. Christmas ornaments. Microwave ovens. Three-year-old Marita Duarte’s tricycle was sold by her mother, Beatriz, to a stranger for $3 even as her daughter was riding it.
On Mission Ridge Drive and other avenues, lanes and ways in this formerly booming community, even birthday celebrations must go. “It was no money, no birthday,” said Ms. Duarte, who lost her job as a floral designer two months ago. The family commemorated Marita’s third birthday without presents last week, the occasion marked by a small cake with Cinderella on the vanilla frosting. They will move into a rental apartment next month.
An eternity ago, people in this city in northern San Joaquin County braved four-hour round-trip commutes to the San Francisco Bay Area for a toehold on the dream. Today, Manteca’s lawns and driveways are storefronts of the new garage-sale economy — the telltale yellow signs plastered in the rear windows of parked cars Friday through Sunday directing traffic to yet another sale, yet another family.
“You can get great deals,” said Sharrell Johnson, 32, who was scouting for toys in the Indian summer heat last Friday amid boxes of tools and DVDs and forests of little skirts and shirts dangling from plastic hangers on suspended rope. “Sad to say, you’re finding really good things. Because everybody’s losing their homes.”
The garage-sale economy is flourishing here and in many other regions of the country, so much so that some cities have begun cracking down. With more residents trying to increase their income, the city of Weymouth, Mass., limited yard sales to just three a year per address. Detective Sgt. Richard Fuller said it was now common to see 15 cars parked in front of a house.
Richmond, Ind., has had such an onslaught of garage sale signs posted in the right of way that the city has placed stickers on prominent light poles warning of violations and fines.
But it is a Sisyphean task: Manteca’s ordinance, restricting residents to two sales a year, is widely ignored.
The sales are part of the once-underground “thrift economy,” as a team of Brigham Young University sociologists have called it, which includes thrift stores, pawn shops and so-called recessionistas name-brand shopping at Goodwill.
[snip]
I have had some contact with the management at the Ledger over the past number of years and I am not at all surprised the paper is in trouble.
“I make pennies. But believe it or not - I went into teaching because I truly thought I could make the world a better place to live.
”
Cindy,
It is a wonderful motivation, and I am not knocking it. Still, as Bill Gates and Warren Buffett have shown, one can do a whole lot of good by making a boatload of money and using it for good.
“My point is that Americans crave leadership”
The danger is not is looking for leadership, it is looking for a “leader” who promises leadership without pain.
To add to the cheery mood over here in the morning, here is a video of our homeboy - Roubini
(Apologies if it is a repost). This is a long video and at the end, he ends with a prospect of a world war to reduce the overcapacity in the system. He may be chilling negative, but he makes sense (at least to me).
mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcYqArJFMJgA.asf
471. lisoosh Says:
October 25th, 2008 at 10:12 am
407 - $160,000 for a masters in music? Guy deserves to be chased down for stupidity.
—————————————-
Hopefully for that price the university threw-in a guitar or a set of bagpipes or something. Maybe it was one of those degrees that took four years instead of usual two years to get. Perhaps he was a slow learner. With luck he’ll recoup his ‘investment’ by the time he retires.
“Wonder if someone at Marcal has got incriminating pictures of Jon.”
Carla working there now?
@401
“applied, ha ha, yeah right.
more like, applied with a Colt 45 down your throat. and I ain’t talking the Colt that the brothers up in Harlem swill while they roll the dice.
SAS”
…and then people wonder why most decent people around the world hates reagan, W, et al.
SAS, you should write a book about your experiences.
HC
(475) Shore - My point precisely - any real leader WOULD be explaining the pain involved and telling the truth about what everyone needs to do - together as a nation - to get out of the mess.
Cindy -
I am curious as to what your experiences are vis-a-vis the parents of these kids. Do they inculcate the same sense of responsibility in their kids at home as you teach them in school?
cindy 466
We certainly DO NOT look down on you!!!!! as you said before, its the ability to each express our opinions in a constructive manner that makes our discussion so valuable ( if to none but one another)
The work you do is critical to a sound and progressive society and i doubt anyone on this blog looks down on you for it.
That said, “fixing” the world as it is is not always the best answer.
There is a time and a place to fix an existing structure but also a time to replace it. ultimately that difference is irrelevant. There are forces in motion that guarantee that substantial changes are going to take place. Our choice lies in whether we embrace the opportunity to rebuild old encumbered structures or to desperately grasp and the past.
I would love to have an indepth discussion on that point with you. get my e-mail address from grim and we can chat about it in detail if you like.
Cindy - I like your idealism. And as the parent of small children, thank goodness for people like you willing to take them on daily. More power too you.
And idealism takes many forms. The “mark to market” crowd are idealists, the apocalyptic crowd are idealist. Everybody has an ideal that they aspire too, just some are more forgiving than others.
Jersey Jim - very ungentlemanly of you.
“The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar’s dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People’s Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said. …”
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSPEK466920081024
lisoosh 470.
egypt is a tinder box. There are the factors you mentioned, and then there are the food imports. Eqypt is highly dependent on foos imports and even minor disruptions such as the rice shortage in early 08 can cause sudden and extensive shortages.
lissosh,
“And idealism takes many forms. The “mark to market” crowd are idealists, the apocalyptic crowd are idealist. Everybody has an ideal that they aspire too, just some are more forgiving than others.”
so which am i? i am in both camps?
http://www.cusd.com/
Victorian (481)
“Do they inculcate the same sense of responsibility in their kids at home as you teach in class.”
Yes…once they figure out we really do follow a lot of rules…homework, dress code, etc.
Very high expectations.
I am lucky enough to work for a very conservative school district that has a strong parent base.
Since I work in the primary grades, the duty often falls on us to “educate” the parents about their responsibilities. (We really do mean that your homework folder is due.) We have responsibility slips that need to be signed whenever kids mess up, etc.
But times have changed. The families are breaking down. There are jobs issues here. That is what breaks your heart. Also, many new families - that don’t necessarily value education as much as the district promotes.
I have found that once the parents see you have their child’s best interest in mind - they get on board.
(lisoosh) (483)
“Jersey Jim - very ungentlemanly of you” - No - It wasn’t Jersey -
It’s okay Jersey - I can usually take it…I must have just needed a good cry -yaknow..
Anyone on here looking at homes in Middlesex County? In particular, the Sayreville/Old Bridge area? I have been looking at homes in that area since January and it seems that the few people that are putting homes on the market think it’s still 2005 or 2006. :(
Kettle (482)
I am sure we could have a wonderful conversation on the rebuilding of America. We have touched here before on our differing philosophical views.
My view is now in question. I’m one to wait to see…I now need more information. My ideas aren’t working out so well….
cindy
email me here at i will reply with my real email address
d52yanqwoef4ioq@temporaryinbox.com
490 Cindy
Your post makes me feel ashamed that I’m questioning the validity of my own job. I hope I can find your strength.
ket-
I know how bad Egypt is. This interesting thing is how little attention it gets. The assumption is that because Mub. says the right things everything is A-okay. I would put it at the front of the list for trouble.
As for camps - I don’t really view you as in a camp so much as I wanted to pointed out that the root of “idealism’ is having an ideal. The term has become associated with a happy-go-lucky, kumbaya singing, naive mindset that is used as an insult and yet ANY world view that has an ideal as it’s goal is idealistic.
Kind of like how “intellectual” has become debased - it is now an insult to actually think about things.
More of the dumbing down of the US.
Kettle - That didn’t work so well - They started asking me questions about “pop servers” and stuff - as you know I am a computer “loser.”
Just get my email from Grim….
I do not know how much time I have for in-depth conversations. I can usually only communicate during the AMs.
#480 Cindy: Most Americans do not want to hear about pain. As far as your teaching, please continue with your wonderful work.
There have been some truly wonderful teachers that my children have had over the years, and you sound like you are of the same mind.
Teachers who truly belive they can make a difference and have the passion to teach are IMO short supply. I salute you and all of them.
#489 jeff: Be patient, they will soon find out it is not 2005/06, but rather 2000/01.
Trulia.com has a great RE tool. You can zoom in with there map on an area. It can focus on a 1 block to 20 block radius.It will show you current listings and current resales up to a month ago. It shows the old resale listings w/pics.
I actually agree that people are hungry for leaders. Whether that makes them sheeple or whether or not we should just accept that as part of human nature is another issue.
Unfortunately, many of those with the potential to be good leaders seem to fear being straightforward about the pain necessary to reach a goal.
That leaves the door wide open for scaremongering and fundementalism, the door of bad leaders. Because as we all know, nature abhors a vacuum.
grim/richnj: When one of you guys get a chance, can you please give me the status on njmls #2810263.
(492) Lost - What! Never question anything on my account.
At 490 I alluding to the idea that you don’t “throw the baby out with the bathwater” re: my support of the bailout…a differing view from Kettle.
But when I hear stories of dividends being paid by banks, bonuses still on the books, etc. - I am now questioning how the funds are being used.
I don’t know what the answer is but I see now that I need more information. The securitization component has skewed any previous model… plus globalization. I have watched markets - of all sorts - come and go - up and down before. This is different…
The “idealist” in me believes there are people smart enough to see us through challenging times.
500 Cindy
I’m not questioning because of you. I’m questioning on my own. I’m saying that your strength to continue to believe in what you do, day after day for so long, makes me ashamed that I question what I do.
(495) 3b
Thank you - and thank you from all of the teachers your children have ever had.
cindy
regarding inflation/deflation.
we are in a deflationary phase and will most likely see a rapid switch to inflation followed shortly by hyperinflation.
the switch is likely to come when the various carry trades are done unwinding and the government saturates the bond market.
The US dollar is going up as everyone has to buy dollars to payoff debts they hold. the same thing is going on with the yen.
When that unwinding starts to wrap up the value of the dollar will start to fall as right now is propped up by a combination of the carry trade and of have a legacy as a “safe haven”.
As the dollar strats to drop the government will end up saturating the bond market and will have a hard time finding investors in order to finance their borrowing.
At that point they will fire up the printing presses in overdrive and you will see a brief period of inflation followed by a rapid onset on hyper inflation.
My best uneducated (highschool janitor) guess is that we wont see the deflationary period end until 2010. there is to much unwinding to be done and we are not even beginning to feel the pain that deflation is capable of inflicting.
If the government continues to pull out all the stops in combating deflation they may end up extending the deflationary period until 2011
cindy 500
“The “idealist” in me believes there are people smart enough to see us through challenging times.”
There are. unfortunately they are not the ones in power and are not the ones that the average joe will choose until after the fact. The people what their bread and circus and will put in power who ever promises to continue it.
Humans as individuals have many great qualities but the problem in my view is that our society has become glutenous and corrupt. People are more concerned with “dancing with the stars” and what movie star is pregnant then the crumbling family structure or a host of other issues.
The society has become a group of consumer zombies. the trick is how do you wake them up and get them to act like intelligent thinking individuals.
The founding fathers had something of the same issue. It took 2 main steps. one step is you need a core group of idealists/intellectuals to formulate what is needed and then you need the general population to become unhappy enough with the status quo that they no longer desire it.
This is a pattern seen throughout history. And rome mastered the art of bread and circus because the knew that if the prevented one of the 2 pieces from falling in places they could maintain the empire. Hence the preeminence of the gladiatorial games and the handing out of bread. The intellectuals may have been unhappy and ready to step up, but the citizens of rome had a full belly and the entertainment of mortal combat.
To follow the rome theme, what brought them down in the end was not internal, but external. While there was significant inner turmoil the bread and circus kept the populous distracted. The end came from barbarian hordes. They saw how fragmented and selfish the empire hand become and knew that they would not face a united roman. That was when they struck and began carving off sections of the empire.
They did not fall in a day but that was the general process.
#407 kettle1, Doesn’t GreenSpan have a Masters in Music?
More CDS chickens coming home to roost. We should just cook these chickens already.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102401715.html?hpid=topnews
Anecdata -
Husbands car dealership employer sold a grand total of 6 cars last month, and that was good. One of their competitors closed.
They’d been lowering staff by attrition. The people who left have been calling continually asking to return as the locations they went to are either closing or dying a slow death.
It’s tough out there. The pain hasn’t even begun to kick in.
ket - studies show that other primates practice celebrity worship.
Chimps have been shown to forgoe their favorite snacks just for the opportunity to gaze apon their chimpy leaders.
It would be nice to think that evolutionary developments in higher thinking could trump that habit, but the fact that we are hardwired for it is an important one to consider.
I would postulate that during the evolution of humankind, the society and societal glue became very important in terms of survival (after all, with the development of language we are the ultimate social animal). Societies function more effectively with leaders and followers.
It is what it is. Best to recognize it and work with it rather than rail against 100’s of thousands of years of successful evolution.
kettle1 Says:
October 25th, 2008 at 11:54 am
cindy regarding inflation/deflation.
we are in a deflationary phase and will most likely see a rapid switch to inflation followed shortly by hyperinflation.
the switch is likely to come when the various carry trades are done unwinding and the government saturates the bond market.
The US dollar is going up as everyone has to buy dollars to payoff debts they hold. the same thing is going on with the yen.
When that unwinding starts to wrap up the value of the dollar will start to fall as right now is propped up by a combination of the carry trade and of have a legacy as a “safe haven”.
As the dollar strats to drop the government will end up saturating the bond market and will have a hard time finding investors in order to finance their borrowing.
At that point they will fire up the printing presses in overdrive and you will see a brief period of inflation followed by a rapid onset on hyper inflation.
My best uneducated (highschool janitor) guess is that we wont see the deflationary period end until 2010. there is to much unwinding to be done and we are not even beginning to feel the pain that deflation is capable of inflicting.
If the government continues to pull out all the stops in combating deflation they may end up extending the deflationary period until 2011
ket: your authoritative tone is strikingly bi-esque….
“any real leader WOULD be explaining the pain involved and telling the truth about what everyone needs to do - together as a nation - to get out of the mess”
People seem to have come to believe that life: is fair, should be easy, can be risk free and painless. We allow politicians who lei about the true state of things to savage the ones who tell the truth and we reject the truth tellers and elect those who pomise cost-free sunshine and roses.
A proposal for a post-election lame-duck session piece of legislation: declare all CDSs void.
Is your blood pressure high from all of this credit crisis, deflation, inflation and election talk?
Cure is to let’s a nice stinky one rip…..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20081023/sc_livescience/thestinkinfartscontrolsbloodpressure
Any thoughts on this ballot question?
http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/2008results/08generalelection/08-pq1-state-appropriations.pdf
Re: Newark Star Ledger
Interesting Anecdote….back in the 40’s the newspaper would give away buildable lots in Beachwood, Ocean county. For a full year’s subscription, you would get a deed for a 100 x 100 parcel. Of course, back then Beachwood was the Wilderness.
But now, those same lots (with 50 year old small ranches on them) are being bought for $200K. The bungalows are torn down by local builders who put up a new Colonial.
Family fortunes were made by those North Jersey subscribers.
shore, but how many people can make as much as money as what wb and bg make?
>Cindy,
It is a wonderful motivation, and I am not knocking it. Still, as Bill Gates and Warren Buffett have shown, one can do a whole lot of good by making a boatload of money and using it for good.
Chifi,
Nothing i say on this blog should be considered authoritative… I think thats clear to anyone who hangs out here.
i am also not self centered enough to preclude the idea that i am 100% wrong.
and hey, it looks like Bi’s $40 oil could be right…. ;)
60#, stu, sounds like a genious.my impression was you lighted up one half of your srs at $70’s before taking cruise.
> My little double short is up to 190. It’s a shame I sold some at 135, 155 and 175, but I’m not greedy. As in gambling, I’m more about reducing the downside than gambling for massive upside. I still have 1/3rd left though and I look forward to locking in a double bagger on it.
lisoosh…
Can I ask what make you hubby’s dealership sells?
Dayton closed down last year.
Malouf is for Sale.
Just saw an ad showing Edison Infiniti (or is it Lexus?) (not Ray Catena) is for sale.
where is “make money” these days? still subscribing PM’s $5000 gold dream. by the way, i hope gold moving up.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=gld#chart8:symbol=gld;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Shore - if you’re looking for something more high end than I posted, let me know or get my email from Grim.
The expense account lunch is a hallowed tradition where I work :)
Gator,
I love a good meal.
bi 519,
shorting gold? longer then 6 months out?
522, kettle1, acctually i am shorting gold but long something else hoping gold move up.
this week, stu and a few others laughed at my XHB pick made last year. actually, if you still remember what i said, i was long XHB but short lenders. considering higer volatility, XHB is at par with general market even at $12.32 friday’s close.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XHB#chart4:symbol=xhb;range=1y;compare=spy+xlf;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
“522, kettle1, acctually i am shorting gold but long something else hoping gold move up.”
HUH? Anybody, interpretation?
Gator,
Thanks for the Wellmont info.
# spam spam bacon spam Says:
October 25th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
“lisoosh…
Can I ask what make you hubby’s dealership sells?
Dayton closed down last year.
Malouf is for Sale.
Just saw an ad showing Edison Infiniti (or is it Lexus?) (not Ray Catena) is for sale.”
One of the many Volvo dealerships around (any more would be too much information) - generally pretty loyal customers and the only profit maker belonging to Ford, but dead right now as they certainly aren’t cheap.
Montclair Volvo just closed as they couldn’t keep up with expenses.
Didn’t know about Edison. Edisons Saab dealership was built but never opened up. Which Dayton closed? There are a bunch - Toyota being the biggest I believe (and not to be stereotypical but the majority of Indians around here drive Toyotas so I don’t know how much they can be suffering. I know that Malouf seems to have closed their Cadillac dealership, but the GMC one, Lincoln /Chrysler one and the big Ford one still seem open. He made out HUGE when the state payed him off for moving away from the 130/1 junction so his overhead should be lower than most. Cheap with his workers too.
Cars are in a bad way for obvious reasons. The word in my neck of the woods (Somerset/Brunswicks) which is mostly working/lower middle class is that things are getting worse. Everybody is worried - and these are generally regular working stiffs, mostly professional but not rarified Bergen County/Wall Street types.
The rarified Wall Street types I WORK with though are also worried, but more optimistic. Maybe because they have more to lose so hope is stronger.
well i have been out looking at an suv
you would never know the auto industry had any problems by the dealerships i’ve spoken to,
the prices still seem high and salespeople,
arrorgant, and not very knowledgable when is comes to the financing end of things.
the process has a way to go, and i dont believe the industry gets it.
kettle [503],
From BP;
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/10/23/adjusted_monetary_base_annual_rate.png
BC (525)-
My guess? Texas hedge, about to go horribly wrong:
“522, kettle1, acctually i am shorting gold but long something else hoping gold move up.”
“HUH? Anybody, interpretation?”
From anther site - enjoy.
“I work as a counselor who deals with people who are going into foreclosure. Let me just say that my empathy, sympathy or whatever has run dry. I am so sick and tired of dealing with broke, irresponsible homeowners who got in over their heads and now want the banks to lower the debt that they owe. Give me a break. If you knew you couldn’t afford a $500K house on a $10 per hour job, then you should have not signed for an interest only or negative amortization loan. The American entitlement mentality has gotten ridiculous. I have people calling me who can barely rub two pennies together and they were investing in multiple properties trying to flip them. Now shame on the banks too for being greedy idiots in the first place and giving out no documentation loans. Now everybody has to pay the piper. Freddie Mac, for example, is scrambling and is giving out mass loan modifications–without income verification!! Isn’t that what created the problem in the first place? I personally feel that there should be no bail out. Let the prices drop back down to reality and those that should never have been in a home in the first place, go rent an apartment, get your credit straight and save some money.
I think it’s a joke that I have to go home with a headache because people don’t want to take responsibility for their own stupid decisions. People, wake up! Get out of debt. Save some money. Get your lives in order. Work hard and stop trying to get rich quick. And if by chance you legitimately can’t pay your mortgage because you lost a job, then sometimes in life, things don’t always go as planned, cut your losses and move on. Just don’t expect your mortgage company to let you live in the house for free.”
525#, 530#, im amazing you two cannot figure it out what will move up much bigger if gold moves up. among many others, obvious one will be gold mining stocks.
bi (532)-
Yeah, but at least I didn’t marry my margin clerk.
531 Lisoosh
Someone’s burnt out.
Anyone off building a Sukka today?
seems it is a fire sale in california. but it is normal decline in our area. considering recent meltdown in stocks and commodities, i am still considering buying a home (not speculatively) is the best investment you can have.
“Regionally, existing-home sales in the West jumped 16.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.25 million in September, and are 34.4 percent higher than September 2007. The median price in the West was $253,600, down 18.5 percent from a year ago.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales increased 4.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in September, but are 2.5 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $152,500, which is 7.9 percent lower than September 2007.
Existing-home sales in the South rose 2.2 percent in September to a pace of 1.90 million but remain 7.8 percent below September 2007. The median price in the South was $167,200, down 4.1 percent from a year ago.
In the Northeast, existing-home sales slipped 1.2 percent to an annual pace of 840,000 in September, and are 7.7 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $246,800, down 5.4 percent from September 2007.”
http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=september+existing+home+sale&fr=yfp-t-501&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8
bi [532],
Actually, I just need to utilize a binary decoder.
[452] SAS
I hope what went around, came around. A little Hammurabic Code, perhaps?
#536 ?
Succot ended in the middle of the week.
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
Well Clotpoll - Mike Morgan pretty much says - Game over - you won.
540#, mark his words and check back next sunday. i wish all these big talk heads can publish their own brokerage accounts. by the way, i don’t pay any attention to them unless they put their own money to play. at this junction, i prefer what everybody’s warren said: when people have fear i am greed; when people are greed i have fear.
“I will have updated closing trade numbers on Sunday. If things deteriorate over the weekend, we could see a 2000-3000 point drop this week. I believe 10-15% is already baked into this cake. And yes . . . on my ship we get our cake, and get to eat it too. But not yet. Sit tight, be quiet, and go for a walk on the beach . . . because the sun rises in about 20 minutes and I will be on the beach for a long walk today.”
Thnx, ’soosh.
Dayton closed ALL except Toyota.
Malouf’s is the Cadillac brand.
I don’t get by Edison much, when I go thru, it’s on 287. So I don’t see what goes on there anymore.
I’m seeing “hot potato” with properties here in Somerset Cty. Barker Bus still hasn’t closed on their new property (5MM) the closing has been sch’d every friday since about April… :( His prop now on Rt 22 is supposed to become a Nissan dealer. Fat chance on that. It’s owned by Kemper Rlty. Kemper has some bags they’re holding around the area - under contract but no close.
Just found out Brown’s Mack is toast. (P-Burg/Warren Cty) But that may get taken over by corporate… instead of closing… to keep the area served. He just spent 9MM 3 years ago for the beautiful bldg…
Auto is feeling baaaaaaaaaad.
The Jeep dlr keeps *&^%$ calling my house to buy; our Jeep is only 3 yrs old… (except dh did flip it over 3 weeks ago, so it’s (ahem) looking kinda “worn in”…)
And here I am still needing a building; I have hope, though :)
spam - considering the deterioration of commercial RE, I would imagine that you will be in prime position within a year, if you can hold out that long.
Seen any good value mini-farms in your area recently?
“SAS, you should write a book about your experiences”
its in the works.
I have a writer & lawyer whom were more than willing to help.
Just need to work on PR.
and also, get motivated. I sometimes don’t want to reveal myself too much.
SAS
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/9444BD1D-ADC1-4C2E-9237-F21240AB0DC5
Ken Rosen - RE - More gloom and doom on the horizon.
cindy:
*hug* my family are all teachers, engineers or ministers. we are all builders, hopers and miracle workers. :*)
re: polyandry and china
won’t work (imho), for cultural reasons. in india, they have a deeply entrenched mythos that includes the pandava brothers– 5 (heroic) men all married to the same (holy/heroic) woman. the precedent legitimizes the practice even if it’s not “normal” to modern sensibilities. in china, you *have* to have a son to perform the right funeral rituals, or you become a vengeful ghost inflicting curses on any family that’s left and you don’t get to go to heaven (where all the good stuff is). they could *not* cope with a child casually talking about his “fathers”…
of course, times change. i am not a school janitor, but i *did* work at a diaper service when i was a teenger. (yuck!)
…and sas…
if i ever end up in a dark alley, i want you behind me! :)
Cindy (540)-
Indeed, it is game over. I think Friday was just a dress rehearsal for what could be the blood-letting of the century that might come as early as Monday or Tuesday. Friday’s session seemed to have the PPT sitting there with a bid up under anything that was vulnerable.
My real fear is that the PPT is forcing pensions, mutual funds, etc to put money at risk that isn’t meant to be.
When the big sell-off comes, it’s going to be cataclysmic. It will take a Biblical generation to build back the wealth that’s going to be destroyed.
Hang in there. People like you will have everything to do with how well we pull out of this mess.
bi (541)-
Contact me offline, thru Grim, and I’ll walk you through my last 30 trading sessions, trade by trade.
bi (541)-
Mike Morgan calls his shots, too. He was way out in front, shorting HB’s, banks, insurance, etc. His track record speaks for itself.
(547) Clot
So the lantana is going, going, gone.
#536 bi:
I expect real fire sales in our area to start next spring, after another bulk of banking layoffs around the bonus cycle.
Actually, it’s a win-win: if the job stays you get a bonus and buy a house for cheap.
If the job is gone, it’s bye-bye to overpriced NY/NJ. What’s a down payment here can buy a nice beach house elsewhere for cash with spare money left to sit out the recession.
Kettle1, your view is very Austrian. You may find the below site agrees with you.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north-arch.html
Peter Schiff’s analysis and predictions are extremely accurate, up to the falling of house of cards. But he missed the deflation phase after the bubble bust. Both he and Gary North predict eventual hyperinflation.
lisoosh,
Details, details.
Cindy (550)-
Poof.
kettle: m dreams won’t let me post. :(… here’s a link to a blog with a video on peak everything… http://www.sustainablehabitats.org/
I have an idea for a compound!
http://weburbanist.com/2007/11/02/suburban-abandonments-missile-silos-for-exploration-visitation-and-even-for-sale/
On CNBC poll at,
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27346130
Do you blame Alan Greenspan for the current financial crisis because he lowered interest rates so dramatically?
67% Yes
33% No
The number 1 weakness in the larger system we all live in is the JIT supply chain (Just In Time). Since there are no real stock piles of common supplies (i.e food medicine etc)any disruption is likely to cause shortages. an example of this is the rice shortage last spring.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-in-time_manufacturing
any disruption in the chain whether due to fuel shortages or lack of credit or a natural disaster will result in rapidly spreading shortages of a similar or greater magnitude the link that was disrupted.
The speed with which the disruption is transmitted through the system is as fast as the slowest disrupted link.
As an example, shipping has been disrupted due to lack of available credit. It has dropped 80%. shipping products around the world takes weeks. We are going to see various types of shortages due to the shipping issue but it will take weeks at a minimum to appear.
The danger is that you do not always know the fastest or slowest link in the chain so that even if you are aware of a disruption you may not know when the shortage will hit and what form it may take.
In other words, as we see increasing volatility and disruption in the marketplace expect to see a corresponding increase in supply chain disruptions down the line. The will not however, directly correlate to the order or pace at which the origination disruption does.
“as postulated by a high school janitor”
Lost, Nom
At this point the most sensible time for a compound purchase will be after deflation is in full effect and people are being crushed by debt, there for forcing property to be liquidated at relatively low prices since cash will be of significantly higher value.
Lost, there are 1 or 2 silos for sale in the Adirondacks….. the rest are in the midwest.
Probably more effective to just build an eartsheltered structure from scratch if thats really what you want.
In this scenario cash will be king
waiting 552,
I am definitely in the Austrian economic camp, but i also see value in some of the basic Keynesian policies. My issue, is that Keynesian policies have been twisted to maximize profit at all costs, it has been bastardized. austrian economics is very clear on the end results of such actions. Its not pretty
559 Kettle
There is a website that sells these silos but its down. I remember them being 30 million. I thought some might be in Ohio? I think at 1.5 this is a steal.
Crushed grapes and yeast, perfect together.
Clot (554)
“Poof” - The lantana reference was to the plants in my front yard…
remember, I said once - if everything went south - I may need to dig up my yard and put in veggies.
So, no poof. This will involve manual labor.
just ordered some more storable foods.
and my helper, Juanita, and I will be canning some jams tomorrow.
SAS
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=456069
Volvo Truck demand in Europe down 99.7%!?! in Q308 vs Q307.
Umm… I really dont have words for this. Cliff diving with out a parachute?
Global orders for Trucks are down 55%.
Stolen from CR.
How much are you paying Juanita? Would she like to move to the country in Md?
alia - I posted this once long ago, but this time this is for you..
http://www.simondale.net/house/
(567) Lisoosh - Too cute!
nothing like a heaping load of truth from Clot. that’s what this country needs more of.
Clot - Q - so regarding that link earlier this weekend about the dollar having a good run now, but bad news is on the horizon …
if you’re flush with cash, isn’t the smart move - for a variety of reasons - to buy before next summer? if you’re sitting on 275k and the US dollar gets blown away, you are f*cked. but if you put down 200 of that on a house and buy … i dont know, it seems like the smart move.
or maybe im just justifying what we are 99% sure we’re going to do anyway when our lease is up. always good to hear a pro’s thoughts, of course.
Cindy,
From your Mike Morgan post.
“The exit door is barely open at this point”
[Edit] Beware, they will always lay down the red carpet and let you in. Just make sure you depart before last call. Otherwise, you will be trapped.
“We call this . . . Game Over”
[Edit] Game has been over for the last 2 years. 99% are late to the dinner table.
“The poor slobs with 401Ks will be stuck holding the slimy stink left behind from the big boys.”
[Edit] The lower class are slaves, the middles class is regulated, the super rich write the rules.
One other note, frame your dollars, they are toast. We will default by 2009/2010.
Where’s the recession I ask? People are buying homes like tomorrow is our last day.
“JOHN P. LYNCH, an auctioneer and broker with Amity Auction Realty, stood at the front of a crowd packed into a ballroom at the Marriott Hotel and Conference Center on Oct. 12, extolling the virtues of “a virtually brand new” five-bedroom house on Warner Avenue in Hempstead. A photo of the home was projected on a screen, as if Mr. Lynch were auctioning off a Picasso.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/realestate/26lizo.html?ref=business
I visited few stores today, all of them packed, good luck trying to find parking or a register line with less then 5 people on it. Is this what you call a recession?
Frank - Are you unemployed? All you seem to do is hang out at the mall.
“Do you blame Alan Greenspan for the current financial crisis because he lowered interest rates so dramatically?”
AG is shocked, actually disbelief, his words, that the masters didn’t regulate/risk manage their own slop. I get it, akin to the Chicago police during prohibition. They must have been stupified that bootlegging took place under their watch?
Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown
The crisis in Hungary recalls the heady days of the UK’s expulsion from the ERM.
“Where’s the recession I ask? People are buying homes like tomorrow is our last day.”
Frank,
Suggestion, first lean over. Now try to pull your head out of your #ss. If, big if, successful, hose down your glasses. Then, bend over and kiss your #ss goodbye.
U.S. Dollar Currency Collapse Within 30 Days
Because of scarcity, physical gold is selling at an enormous premium to gold spot price (which is set by COMEX). How big a premium? Well, on eBay 2008 gold buffalo are trading between 300 to 400 over spot price. That is a 50% premium. The enormous premiums being paid in the physical market means that a large number of December gold contract holders are likely to request delivery. A volume, whether it causes defaults or not, is likely to change the marketplace perception of gold and cause a rush of into a physical gold plagued by shortages. Gold will skyrocket over 2000 in a matter of days.
I am not the only person who believes COMEX gold futures are on the verge of collapse. I urge you to watch this video (skip to 11 minute mark) and read the extract below to see what others are saying about paper gold.
BC Bob,
Why do you have be an as& hole when posting on this blog? Can you have a normal discussion? Are you a typical NJ jerk-0ff that can’t comment without calling someone an as% or other names?
“Are you unemployed?” I wish I was, not that lucky.
I went to the mall today for the first time in awhile. Wife had a small gathering of women and i had to scram. Decided to go into Macy’s and pick up two cashmere sweaters. checked the prices.
walked to the gap (which was empty) and they didn’t have any. then went to banana repulic (also empty) and they had a silk/cashmere blend which was weak.
went back to macy’s, and while looking through my wallet, stumbled upon a macy’s gift card. just my luck - it had enough money on it to cover the 2 sweaters - which were marked down from 150-100.
all of this only took about 35 mins because the mall was so damn empty. got a aunt annie’s pretzel on the way out. love those things.
Hope you can dance and sing for you dinner folks.
Subject: markets down
Markets down more than 70%: Vietnam (-70.5%), Peru (-73.2%), Ireland (-73.4%), Russia (-73.9%), Iceland (-88.7%).
Markets down between 60% and 70%: Hong Kong (-60.1%), Poland (-62.6%), China (-69.8%).
Markets down between 50% and 60%: South Korea (-54.5%), Italy (-55.2%), Egypt (-56.9%), Brazil (-57.2%), Japan (-58.1%), Singapore (-58.2%), Turkey (-58.5%), India (-58.3%).
Markets down between 40% and 50%: Great Britain (-42.3%), Australia (-43.3%), U.S.-S&P 500 (-44.0%), Spain (-46.4%), Germany (-47.0%), Mexico (-48.3%).
Hoboken market is still on fire.
Market Statistics for 2008 Through September for Hoboken Condo Sales with Year over Year Comparisons
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pBISMjuVKyc5N-0b7HIj_PQ&output=html&gid=0&single=true&range=a1:j34
Look at the crazy prices people are still paying for Hoboken 1 Bedroom apartments. With all the Wall St. layoffs you think they would stop.
http://hudson.fnismls.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=e8027a81-635a-4e9e-b929-561af6fceae7&Report=Yes
Cindy (563)-
Is lantana like kudzu? The wiki on it makes me think it might be in the same family.
If so, you should hit it with 24-D-T and hope it works. If not, it will keep coming back, like Jason in “Halloween”.
Veggies in the yard are nothing new. Everybody’s Depression garden became a victory garden after WWII started. There’s even a Victory Garden Twp in Morris Co.
Too bad Morris Co doesn’t also have a Kickback Twp…
(579)-
Frank won’t be unemployed until he manages to wipe out another 10,000 or so little old ladies.
The authorities won’t let you drink & drive for a minute anymore. However, you can piss away somebody else’s wealth with impunity.
Frank, #582
How does this show the Hoboken market is still on fire? # of units sold is down 23% 08/07.
Frank (579)-
To what level of forced selling is your hedge fund?
Have you guys sold all your gold yet?
SG: 577
If Comex Gold paper is worthless and physical Gold is getting a 50% premium how do we exploit this? Buy GLD?
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/front_page/20081025_AIG_s_fall_a_threat_to_transit_agencies.html
Senators seek help before NJ Transit, SEPTA and others could be affected by payments now due lenders.
SG 577:
I checked ebay and the majority of Gold is selling for a 15-25% premium not a 50% premium. There are a few sales at the 40% mark but they seem to be for rare gold bars.
At larger volumes of Gold 10OZ or more the premium is much less. Perhaps gold as with anything else is simply cheaper when purchased in bulk?
Frank,
Come to think of it, I’m just a typical NJ a#shole that sold in 9/05, after owning several properties for 20 years. Actually, I was astonished that a bigger a#sshole paid an enormous amount for a roof attached to 4 walls.
You bought in 05′, let’s analyze that.
SG [577],
Open interest for the small spec, is back to 02′ levels. The robber barons, JPM, have anniliated them. The bullion banks are now long, in conjuction with the commercials. It’s the best bargain on the board.
Frank,
One other thought, you are the only one on this blog that I refer to as an a#shole. You are in rarified territory.
“Look at the crazy prices people are still paying for Hoboken 1 Bedroom apartments.”
Yet, Jesse Livermore sold in 2001. Yes, rarified territory.
Shore - Not sure how far you want to stray from Bryant Park, but here are some other places I am fond of.
Artisanal - A must if you love great cheese and wine (and who doesn’t?) On 32nd and Park.
Avra Estiatorio - Outstanding Greek Seafood near Grand Central - 48th and Lex
Tao E 58th - Stunningly beautiful dining room with a 16-foot Buddha, which floats above a reflecting pool filled with Japanese carp. Excellent pan-asian food, sushi and cocktails. Very trendy.
Shore - I have more recs, but they keep getting me thrown into moderation. Artisanal, Avra Estiatorio and Tao.
BI:
I didn’t lighten up before the cruise, although the thought did cross my mind. At this point, I am down to a position that is 73% less than what I held slightly before the financial short ban. At that point I unloaded about 1/4th of my position. The funny thing is, in the past two weeks, every time I sell off a chunk, the remainder grows in value to equal the amount I had prior to the sell off. I’m not sure how long this will last, but I do have a sell in place at 210. At this point I’m playing with the banks money. In other news, I moved half of my bond positions in my 401Ks into a mix of international 15%, small-cap 15% and large cap growth 20% at the close on Friday. Got out around DJIA 14K and got back in at DJIA 8.3K. I have won already. As much as I fear that there could still be a market dislocation day, I think the upside is greater than the downside. If Dow goes back below 7.5K, I’ll add another 25% to my longs. Otherwise, I think it’s trading range 7.5 to 10.5 for no less than the next 6 months on the DOW.
Frank:
I was in AC this morning as Gator had a day in the spa paid for completely in comps. Went down to AC with $30. HET empire offered me about $130 worth of cash. Gator and I had a fantastic meal at MIA. The oysters were top notch as well as the salmon with a side of clams and sausage. I also had a fantastic beer. Thelonius Monk. Not only was it delicious but the >9% alcohol content gave me a nice buzz. Ended up coming home with $850 in the wallet. Was chasing a $4600 dollar royal progressive but some dude three seats over nailed it. I was not disappointed. Overall, the non-smoking casino thing is pretty awesome, although it felt strange. I’m used to my gambling environment smelling like an old ashtray. Casino’s were emptier than I had ever before witnessed them both around 8am and by the time I left at 1:30pm today. I checked out Showboat, Harrah’s and Bally’s as well as a dead Ceasar’s last night. I don’t know where Frank is getting his anecdotal info, but my view is the complete opposite. Additionally, at least half the billboards on the AC Expressway are blank. This is the first time I ever remember seeing that. The casino, even though empty, was still short of help. It took over an hour to get a jammed bill acceptor serviced and for the first time in my life I had a cage supervisor actually cash one of my tickets at the window. Usually they never leave the back room.
retard:
I have never threatened anyone so stop your incessant lying. If I recall correctly, you were the one bragging about your height and weight prior to a GTG that you sheepishly avoided after saying that you would attend. I value your words about as highly as the deposits my son drops into his potty.
Everyone Else:
I have the financial prowess of Chia Pet and a lot less hair than one. No advice was meant by stating my positions except to provide fodder for future conversation with BI.
Lil Gator….why, oh why won’t you go to bed? YAWN.
Daimler to suspend production for 1 month due to falling demand starting in December.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jDfpcomyzL8PcROO-OqcQs53jhkw
#571 Frank,
If you read the article you would see only 1 house out of the 34 being auctioned sold.
Not exactly flying out the door like in 2004.
Also all the houses being auctioned had already gone through government foreclosure.
There could go one of my backup plans
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/migration-could-be-cut/2008/10/26/1224955827271.html
Gator,
i feel your pain. baby kettle thinks 4am is play time…..