Hat tip to RentingInNJ for providing the chart and compling the quotes. Kudos!
1. “There’s no question there is a strong demand for housing from a growing population.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
2. “For the foreseeable future, the demand for homes will continue to outstrip supply” – Al Mansell, NAR President
3. “We’ve been expecting sales to remain at historically high levels, but this performance underscores the value of housing as an investment and the importance of homeownership in fulfilling the American dream.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
4. “We are returning to more balanced markets between home buyers and sellers… We feel confident that housing is landing softly as rates continue to rise.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
5. “This is part of the market adjustment we’ve been discussing, with a soft landing in sight for the housing sector. The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level. Overall fundamentals remain solid…” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
6. “Higher interest rates are slowing home sales, but we see this as another sign of a soft landing for the housing sector which remains at historically high levels.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
“After five years of booming sales, we are now experiencing normal market conditions across most of the country… most owners can expect steadier gains in home values for the foreseeable future.” – Thomas M. Stevens, NAR President
7. “Over the last three months home sales have held in a narrow range, easing to a level that is near our annual projection, which tells us the market is stabilizing” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
8. “Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but it’ll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
9. Existing-home sales stabilized at a sustainable pace in August – NAR
10. “…the worst is behind us as far as a market correction — this is likely the trough for sales. When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
11. “It looks like we’re moving beyond the low for the housing cycle last fall, and buyers are responding to historically low interest rates and competitive pricing by home sellers. In addition, a tightening inventory of homes on the market is supporting prices.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
12. “Fundamentals have improved in the housing market and buyers see a window now with historically-low mortgage interest rates and competitive pricing by sellers,” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
13. “We also may be seeing some losses as a result of the subprime fallout. However, this is masking improved fundamentals in the housing market, with lower mortgage interest rates and motivated sellers.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
14. “Buyers who’ve been on the sidelines may want to take a closer look at current conditions in their area – if they wait for sales to rise, their choices and negotiating position won’t be as good as they are now.” – Pat V. Combs, NAR President
15. “The rise in sales and prices in the Northeast region on a fairly consistent basis in recent months is promising because this was the first region that underwent sales and price weakness after the boom. Now, it appears that it will be the first region to climb back, indicating that other regions could follow a similar path.” – Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
16. “The unusual disruptions in the mortgage market, including a significant rise in jumbo loan rates, resulted in a fairly high number of postponed or cancelled sales…Once we get through these disruptions, we’ll get a better sense of where the actual market is in late fall as conditions begin to normalize,” – Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
17. “Existing-Home Sales Rise in November, Market Likely Stabilizing” – NAR
18. “Home sales remain weak despite improved affordability conditions in many parts of the country, but we could get a quick boost to the market if loan limits are raised in combination with the bold cut in the Fed funds rate,” – Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
19. Existing-Home Sales to Stablize Before Upturn in Second Half of 2008 – NAR
20 – IT IS ALWAYS A BUYERS AND A SELLERS MARKET!
Now grim, you’re getting on the “gary” level!! Excellent!! Exposed!! F*ck them!
Brilliant – I am thinking of making a T-Shirt and wear it while meeting realtors and looking for houses.
I can’t help but read number 3 without being reminded of Irving Fisher’s permanently high plateau quote.
“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” – Irving Fisher, October 17th, 1929
The Crash of ’29 began on Black Thursday, a week later.
#2 gary: The baove posted information is N/A to River Edge;we are special.
You left off the last two words from every quote! For example:
1. “There’s no question there is a strong demand for housing from a growing population in Manhattan.” – David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist
2. “For the foreseeable future, the demand for homes will continue to outstrip supply in Manhattan.” – Al Mansell, NAR President
… and so on and so forth.
#6 And in Bergen co towns close to Manhattan, that are train towns and Blue Ribbon.
Rent – Beyond Brilliant. Absolutely no chance for cognitive dissonance on the part of the NAR after seeing that. Very nicely done.
Now grim, you’re getting on the “gary” level!! Excellent!!
Don’t thank me, thank Renting, he put it together. I just posted it up.
3b …and in Rahway which is on a train line and is the “next Hoboken”! Woo-hoo!
And this boys and girls is why you have to love the realtors of special Bergen Co.
Spring has sprung and it’s a great time to buy in the Pascack Valley and Bergen County area.
Buyers beware – don’t wait until the market returns to a Seller’s market. (????? are mine)
Buyers who are waiting for the return to a Seller’s Market may be surprised to find they missed the boat.(????? are mine)
Sellers take note! If the Inventory is high, expect to compete by positioning to sell. Tech-saavy agents continue to have the edge in this age of the Internet. Studies still show that most Buyers begin their search online. For Selling Tips, talk to the ‘HammersTeam” on how to make your home stand out. Clean and uncluttered is still the best strategy to take but in today’s market, you’ll need more.
Remember; when it comes to chosing a Realtor, “Trust the Team that’s on your side”!
Lisa and Robert Hammerstein.
It makes me want to smile and vomit at the same time.
Bravo!
Renting, Grim-
This is great. I will definitely point to this in the RE bubble blogs. One small quible, the Y-axis title mentions millions and the numbers seem to be for 10,000’s? Or, am I just reading something wrong.
JM
Scale is wrong, snipped it off until I can get a corrected version.
I just got a voicemail today from an agent I must’ve talked too about 4 years ago. “I was going through my records and was wondering if you are still interested….”
Can anyone provide address and history for NJMLS# 2813459? Thanks.
Mike
Renting great job!
Brilliant. I love it Rent you’re the man.
Definitively T-Shirt material.
mike,
34 Tulane, not really much history. Listed on GSMLS as well as NJMLS. 6 days on market.
Tax records have the last purchase at $198,000 in 1997.
Make, that all going to fit on a T-shirt.Don’t want the text to small.I’m buying.
Renting,
That NAR chart is brilliant!
Thanks JB! Looks like a nice house from the pics. Might have to go see it some time this week.
Mike
At least pimps wear cool clothes, I doubt these clowns are very fashion forward.
That is just fantastic! Go Renting!
BTW, I know a great t-shirt company that can do these if anyone is serious about it.
Who would’ve thought that evidence exposed to this magnitude can be so devious. It has such a Machiavellian flavor.
Renting
three cheers – that’s a riot!
275 Ann (previous thread)
“Pretty much all neighborhoods, whatever their age, were “developments” at some point with “cookie cutter designs.””
Boston?
Anywhere near Boston?
Philly?
Anywhere near Philly
New Orleans?
Savannah?
Anywhere where the streets were carved out by cows some time ago, or by walls (see, e.g., Manhattan) etc.?
Nah. Definitely not “pretty much all.”
6 Seneca
Don’t forget the areas “near Manhattan” (defined as Hoboken, Weehawken and parts of JC).
Patient
Please stop bringing up New Orleans. The envy just grows.
“I can’t help but read number 3 without being reminded of Irving Fisher’s permanently high plateau quote.”
Grim, I can’t read number 2 without thinking of that wonderful book by Kevin A. Hassett and James Glassman: “Dow 36,000”, published a few months before the dotcom bubble burst.
NAR Chief Economist
Oxymoron of the year
Great job Renting. Simple and brilliant – wish I’d thought of it – glad you did.
“Please stop bringing up New Orleans. The envy just grows.”
Lost – just remember that when New Orleans was originally built, it was just a “development” with “cookie cutter designs.” The French Quarter and Garden District were filled with McMaisons.
That’ll help you feel better
32 bairen
I don’t understand this “oxy” thing you’re referring to, but the rest of it I definitely agree with.
34
Um, no. It’s not. I wish it was. When do you leave?
Grim can you email me re: your puppy?
#35 njpatieny
Words that get combined but contradict each other
Like
Military Intelligence
Pretty Ugly
Here’s a huge list of them
http://www.oxymoronlist.com/
We’re hitting the road a week from Saturday.
38 bairen
I pulled your leg and it came off in my hand.
34
You come off like a real ass sometimes.
So many fond memories of New Orleans. Chicory cofee at Cafe Du Monde, sitting in the center courtyard at Pat O’Briens enjoying many a hurricane, the best crab cakes the world has to offer, Jazz. Enjoy Patient, enjoy…
what is the best way to find prices for recently sold homes?
i am not looking for an individual listing, i would like to evaluate a neighborhood.
rent
kudos on the chart!
This chart is a crowning achievement. Thanks!
From the Star Ledger:
New Jersey job prospects grim in 2008
Job prospects are likely to remain grim in New Jersey for much of the year, state Labor Commissioner David Socolow told lawmakers at his department’s annual budget review this afternoon.
Figures due out next week will show the state has lost about 10,000 jobs through March, he said. And out-of-work New Jerseyans are finding it harder to land a new job after being laid off, Socolow told members of the Senate Budget and Appriopriations Committee in Trenton today.
“We may see flat or down job numbers for a considerable period of 2008,” he said. “Workers are hurting in our market.”
Sen. Kevin O’Toole (R-Essex) complained the state’s recent job growth has been concentrated in government work, and said he is counting on the Labor Commissioner to devise strategies for boosting private employment.
“What are we doing to create private sector employment?” O’Toole asked.
47 grim
Admit it: you like to go to Google News and search for “grim”.
41
Thanks.
Just received an email back from a realtor. Here are the main points:
– the market is heating up again
– Buyers have been sitting on the sidelines and waiting
– In some towns it is happy days are here again
http://www.fiscalpolicy.org/PullingApartInNewYork_April2008.pdf
great brand new study about wages in NYC
50 gary
The realtor was probably referring to “certain towns”?
Thanks, John:
“Between the late 1980s and the mid 2000s, only the top fifth of New York families increased its share of total income.”
njpatient,
I really don’t know. What I do know is that I’m not budging and I’d rather f*cking croak in my current house than pay for somebody elses lifestyle. If other people want to fall for that line of sh*t, then God bless ’em.
We need to do another GTG.
Oh Patient! Maybe I haven’t scared you away.
54 gary
Indeed we do.
And I was referring to bi’s infamous “certain towns” in which prices will increase 10% (is that 2008 over 2007?).
Bear Stearns on Small Business sentiment:
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/nfib0308.pdf
“BOTTOM LINE: This report has a strong stagflationary feel to it. Small business optimism has plunged to
levels not seen since the recession in 1980, while the balance of firms both raising prices and planning to raise
prices increased significantly at the end of the first quarter.”
Nope.
Sorry. I probably should have warned you.
Look….the Europeans are going to save the Hoboken market as well….
http://hobokenrealestatenews.com/2008/04/08/europeans-want-to-know-what-is-the-hoboken-market-is-doing/
Sorry about the scale on the chart. I will send a new version tomorrow. Good catch.
60 Hobo
They also appear to have written that url
very nice
Not to worry everyone. I’m sure the Europeans will get around to rescuing your towns from the evils of declining home prices soon as well.
I expect half of the NYC MSA will soon be owned by absentee Europeans just looking for places to invest.
Example, I think we’ve all seen towns where 90% of the houses are the same exact split or cape. Isn’t that cookie cutter? Not exactly architectural brilliance.
I could never get over the amount of NJ housing stock that came from the Sears Catalog …. :*)
http://www.searsarchives.com/homes/1933-1940.htm
Brilliant! Just bloody brilliant -Rent.
I am posting this in my office tomorrow…
it should really make a lot of the realtors pissed off! (I’m an analyst in a commercial appraisal firm – we share the building with a the realtor company! Whoo Hoo.
I really drives me crazy when these dolts walk around all day smiling and pretending like everything is great. It’s funny, when I ask them about economics or historical real estate data they look at me like I have three heads!
Almost everyday, I print out a few mls listings with incorrect and false info and ALWAYS point it out…much to their displeasure! Thanks again renting.
That’s it. I’m done. I’ve had enough. I’m going home.
Rent – Bery, bery nice. T-shirt material.
We should make a similar chart for Bernanke/Paulson speak.
I like the
The Collingwood (Model No. P3280); ($1,329 to $1,960)
Rent, that would make a great T-shirt I would make the graph on one landscape 8 x 11 and the phrases on 1 8 x 11 portrait, but don’t forget to use t-shirt transfer option on your printer, you don’t want those words to be reversed. Although they pretty much have to be.
KL
Beautifulwork ren.
I would love to see a chart with Greenspanisms.
A “bottom calling” chart might be nice too.
PGC
I was still looking at those sears homes when I saw the link for history, here are some interesting blurbs picked from the time-line
1911
First mortgage loan issued (typically 5–15 years at 6% interest)
1913
Mortgages transferred to credit committee
Mortgages later discontinued
1916
Mortgages revived
1917–21
No-money-down financing offered
1933
Mortgage financing discontinued
1934
Annual Report announced the Modern Homes department was discontinued
All mortgage accounts were liquidated ($11 million)
Interesting
KL
73 KL
1917–21
No-money-down financing offered
Doesn’t that look familiar?
I could never get over the amount of NJ housing stock that came from the Sears Catalog …. :*)
Too bad so little of it is of the 20’s era Craftsman style.
KL,
Only two important dates there:
1917–21 (Roaring Twenties)
No-money-down financing offered
1933 (Great Depression)
Mortgage financing discontinued
#52 njpatient???
Glad everyone likes the chart
Sorry for the discrepancy on the scale. I will send a new chart to JB tomorrow. Note: this won’t change the chart. I just mislabeled the units of sales as “millions” should have been “tens of thousands”
Thanks for the catch BklynHawk
do you guys want to have a protest in New York or DC’s Fed Reserve office against further cutting interest rate? My dollar is worth less day by day. US economy is like an addict and we shoud not feed it more drugs by cutting rate more. Instead, Fed should put the economy in rehab and stand strong. There is no need to panic. Housing bust is natural and neccessary . There is no need to protect the artificially inflated housing prices at the expense of tax payers. Let it fall to where it belongs to.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v_qFhHcHMKvU.asf
Moelis Says Wall Street Banks May Cut 35% of Jobs
Thanks Renting – just what I wanted to see. It unbelievable the press publishes NAR comments without adding a disclosure like “NAR Chief Economist, who has made inaccurate predictions for 2 years, now predicts…”
You know, renting, it’s always nice to have perspective on these types of graphs.
Maybe you could overlay with inventory or SIV losses and put in some of Roubini’s comments over the last two years. Let me know if you need any help translating into Roubinese.
Who is going to do the ‘bi’ graph?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=699625931&play=1
I needed some shock economics after renting’s NAR quotes.
He still thinks inflation is going to subside.
3b
“#52 njpatient???”
Yes???
Renting,
Great chart; Great work!
From the WSJ:
Housing Bust Offers Insights
April 10, 2008
The great American experiment with homeownership for all and mortgages for everyone is over.
Millions of homeowners will lose their houses. The government is scurrying to minimize the damage to the nation’s economy and banking system. Wall Street is picking shards out of its hide. Politicians are beseeching experts for ways to prevent a recurrence. Academics are straining to find the right historical analogy and tally the losses. And the press is looking for people to blame.
In this cacophony, it’s hard to hear a couple of important questions, let alone the answers: What have we learned about providing affordable housing to low-income Americans? And can the current “oversupply” of housing be used as subsidized shelter for those who need it?
…
And there’s something unsettling about proposals pending in Congress to offer new tax breaks for people who buy houses, an attempt to boost demand at a time of falling home prices. Federal tax breaks for homeowners — primarily the tax deduction for mortgage interest — already amount to nearly four times the sum spent on low-income housing assistance. And those tax breaks are skewed toward the affluent; the higher one’s income, the higher one’s tax bracket, the more the deduction is worth.
During the experiment with universal homeownership, a time of sharply rising home prices, the federal government pared rental subsidies for the poor. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal advocacy group, estimates that Washington cut the number of tenant “Housing Choice,” or Section 8, vouchers by 150,000 over the past two years even as traditional public-housing units were being closed.
“The nation has been losing affordable housing stock for almost three decades,” the late Edward Gramlich, a former Federal Reserve governor, warned in a 2007 book. Falling home prices offer a partial solution: They make houses more affordable. Proposals to buy empty, foreclosed homes — perhaps using taxpayer money — and rent them until the housing market stabilizes have promise.
Today’s crisis is prompting a rethinking about financial regulation; it should also prompt a rethinking of housing policy. If it does, solutions to old problems — a shortage of affordable housing — shouldn’t be crowded out by the need to solve new ones.
From the WSJ:
Habit-Forming:
Borrowers Keep
Piling On Debt
As Lenders’ Tighter Standards
Cut Off Some Avenues, People
Tap Credit Cards, Equity Lines
By JANE J. KIM
April 10, 2008
The credit crunch has made it harder for Americans to indulge in their love affair with debt. So what are they doing?
Borrowing more.
While tighter lending standards have cut off all but the most credit-worthy borrowers from auto loans and home loans, many people are turning to credit cards and tapping more of their home-equity lines of credit to dig themselves in deeper. And lenders, once eager to lend to those with even spotty credit records, are trying to rein in borrowing by cutting consumers’ available credit lines.
Average balances on credit cards and home-equity lines of credit are growing rapidly, rising 9.5% and 8.1%, respectively, in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to new data from Equifax Inc. and Moody’s Economy.com.
Borrowing is climbing quickest in the regions where house prices plunged most sharply, making it tougher for people to extract money in cash-out refinancings. (In a cash-out refinancing, a homeowner pays off a mortgage by taking out a loan that is larger than the original mortgage and then pocketing the difference.) Credit-card balances rose nearly 15% during the first quarter from a year earlier in California and Florida and more than 20% in Nevada — all states caught up in the housing bust, according to Equifax and Economy.com.
The rise in borrowing shows just how addicted the U.S. consumer has become to credit. Even as borrowers are cut off in one area, they promptly look for new sources. Workers have increasingly been raiding their 401(k) plans to take out loans over the past year, according to plan administrators and nonprofit groups.
…
From the Record:
Linens ‘n Things expected to file bankruptcy
Struggling Clifton-based housewares retailer Linens ‘n Things is expected to file for bankruptcy within days, according to industry analysts and observers.
Concerns about the company’s cash flow and strained relationships with vendors caused Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating agency, to lower three of Linens’ credit ratings Wednesday afternoon.
“Given that their credit profile is deteriorating, we’re also worried about the vendor relationships and their liquidity position,” said Tiffany Co, director of Fitch Ratings.
From Reuters:
Lehman liquidates three floundering funds: filing
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc has liquidated three floundering investment funds that lost value and ended up taking $1 billion of assets onto its balance sheet, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The bank blamed the liquidation on “market disruptions that occurred in the second half of the 2007 fiscal year and further deterioration in the 2008 quarter,” according to the quarterly filing on Wednesday.
From Bloomberg:
Soros Says Credit Crisis Will Worsen Before Improving
Billionaire George Soros said the seizure in global credit markets caused by the subprime collapse will get worse before it gets better.
Lack of oversight is partly responsible for problems in the financial markets, Soros told reporters on a teleconference today. He said regulators and the U.S. administration “failed to perform their job” in a crisis that began in the U.S. housing market and which the International Monetary Fund estimates will cost global financial institutions almost $1 trillion.
“This is a man-made crisis and it’s made by this false belief that markets correct their own excesses,” Soros, 77, said. “It will take much longer for the full effect of the decline in the housing market to be felt.”
From the Lower Hudson Journal News:
Rockland housing prices decline
Home prices in Rockland slipped a bit during the first three months of the year, data released yesterday showed.
The median price for a single-family home in Rockland fell 5.2 percent during the first three months of the year to $455,000 compared with $480,000 in the same period a year ago, according to figures from the Greater Hudson Valley Multiple Listing Service.
That may come as some relief to local homeowners girding for the double-digit percentage drops seen elsewhere in the country, such as in some municipalities in Southern California.
But the slower decrease in home prices may also be an indicator of stubborn sellers unwilling to accept prices lower than those at the market’s peak nearly three years ago, said Ann Garti, chief executive at Greater Hudson Valley MLS.
Calling the figures “disappointing,” Garti said, “There’s been a significant change in the number of units sold.”
During the first three months of the year, 216 single-family homes changed hands in Rockland County, more than a third fewer than last year when 329 units found new owners.
If homeowners had been more realistic in pricing, Garti said, more homes might have been sold.
The smaller number of sales was reflected in the growing inventory of homes up for sale, which rose nearly 8 percent to 1,343 in the quarter, up from 1,247 in 2007.
At the current pace, it would take about a year and a half to sell all of the single-family homes currently for sale in Rockland County, according to calculations by The Journal News.
92 Grim-
That’s such a staged picture.
BOE cuts by 25bps
From the WSJ:
Inflation, Spanning Globe,
Is Set to Reach Decade High
By ANDREW BATSON
April 10, 2008; Page A1
Inflation is back.
After several years of relative stability, a wave of rising prices is washing over the world economy.
It comes at a most inconvenient time. The Federal Reserve is sharply cutting U.S interest rates — the opposite of the usual response to rising inflation — to prevent the housing bust and credit crisis from causing a deep, prolonged recession. That’s making the global response to inflation more complicated.
Consumer prices in the U.S., Europe and other rich countries are projected to rise 2.6% this year, the highest inflation rate since 1995, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday. In the U.S., consumer prices in February were 4% above year-ago levels. The 15 countries that share the euro currently see inflation of 3.5%, a decade high and well above the European Central Bank’s preferred range. Even Japan, long plagued by flat or falling prices, is seeing modest inflation.
Rising prices for food, energy and other raw materials account for much of the pickup in inflation rates. High food and energy costs hit developing countries — where consumers spend a larger share of income on those necessities — particularly hard. In recent weeks, protests over rising costs have shaken countries from Vietnam, where prices are up 19.4% from last year, to Egypt.
On Wednesday, the World Bank estimated global food prices have risen 83% over the past three years, threatening recent strides in poverty reduction. The IMF forecast consumer prices in emerging and developing countries will rise 7.4% this year, the most inflation since 2001 though still well below the double-digit levels of the recent past.
Moonachie Comp Killer!
8 Jackson Place
Purchased: 8/11/2004
Purchase Price: $470,000
Sold: 4/9/2008
Sale Price: $435,000 (short sale)
7% under 2004 purchase price
Bridgewater Flip Gone FLOP!
1306 Mt Vernon Road, Bridgewater NJ
Purchased: 04/24/06
Purchase Price: $562,000
As-is/Teardown/Rebuild
Purchased by a builder/flipper. Remodel work was completed, was MLS Listed:
MLS# 2459330
Listed: 11/5/2007
Original List Price: $1,400,000
No price reductions
DOM: 155
Withdrawn
Uh oh!
MLS# 2506309
Listed: 04/08/08
Original List Price: $799,000
DOM: 2
Short sale!
A $601,000 price reduction!
Renting,
Great work! Reminds me of the 1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators. The similarities; the same liars, con men and carnival barkers. Just a different time period and a different market.
Ann
hang in there…you are right that most homes were built into cookie cutter developments…look at Levvitt town out on Long Island….split levels were actually designed for the mass movememnt of Americans that began in the 50’s and 60’s…if all those millions of houses look the same it’s because they were built to the same specifications…so when the 60’s family moved the furniture would fit in the new house cause the new house was the same as the old…we lived in a development on the south shore of Long Island for one year and every single house in the 66 unit development was exactly the same…now time and renovations had changed some of them but basically…all the same…now if you want a bad housing style check out a “front to back split”…yikes…what a difficult house to live in…we lived in one of those also in our younger days…now we have what they like to call an “open floor plan colonial”…it’s probably the best floor plan we’ve ever had..
How many Chief Economists does NAR have? They have an excess inventory problem there as well.
“Hobokenite Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
We should make a similar chart for Bernanke/Paulson speak.”
Yeah I’d love to see a chart of the dollar up against quotes of eachtime Paulson was telling us how much they favor a strong dollar.
The fed balance sheet has seen its level 1 assets dwindle from 87% to 53% in just 9 months. Maybe they can hire some of the accounting pros from the IB’s.
http://www.aleablog.com/graph-of-the-day-fed-balance-sheet/
“April 10 (Bloomberg) — Financial advisers for Jefferson County, Alabama, met yesterday with Bush administration and Federal Reserve officials as the county contends with rising borrowing costs that have pushed it close to bankruptcy.”
Dang liberals over-spending again. Dang Alabama liberals.
Good times for Costco, Walmart, and BJ’s (thanks to gasoline sales and inflation).
Bad times for anyone else.
patient [103],
Didn’t they lose close to a billion in swaps?
grim (97)-
That Mt. Vernon Rd house is notorious in these parts. Can’t get it much more wrong than that.
“Bad times for anyone else.”
JB,
Not if you are a farmer or if you own contracts on those items extracted from dirt.
Didn’t they lose close to a billion in swaps?
I especially like the part where Bachus says they aren’t looking for a bailout, and then goes on to warn about the impact the bankruptcy will have on the markets…
I really wonder how that conversation went:
“No no, don’t get me wrong, we’re not asking for a bailout, I’m just sayin’, just sayin’ is all, that if we do go bankrupt, bad things are gunna’ happen, real bad.”
re: (102) BC Bob
Watch them replish their balance sheet real fast. The Fed will break all the rules and they will not wait for Congress to approve anything.
Sean [109],
Maybe they’ll create their own off balance sheet siv?
BC (102)-
Yeah, but unlike you, me or all the companies in America, the Fed can solve their Level 1 crunch with a nifty little facility that only they possess…
patient (103)-
Maybe a window can be opened for Jefferson County, so they can offload their unmarketable auction-rate securities.
Hey…after all, they’re just like cash! :)
re: (110) BC Bob
Bingo! The idea has already been floated out to the media via the WSJ.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/04/09/benefits-of-the-fed-doing-reverse-mbs-swaps/?mod=WSJBlog
Creative accounting…
Who said Enron never gave us anything of actual value?
They raised the off-balance sheet vehicle to an art form.
There is enormus pressure being put on Pelosi right now for a bail out.
I am thinking of sending her flowers, with a nice spiritual uplifiting note. Can anyone reccommend a nice selection of flowers?
If SAS were here, I think he’d recommend a horse’s head.
sean (115)-
Purslane, stinkweed and ragweed. Plus, a spray of hemp.
Don’t look now…GSMLS poised to crack 35,000 in the next day or so.
grim –
Do you know where I can get hold of a seller’s disclosure form?
#85 njpatient: Not sure what your comment in #52 was referring to.
120 3b
I was joking about bi’s frequent claim that prices in “certain towns” will rise 10%.
#118 clot Is that a record for this time of year?
I belive I posted a few months back about the new President’s working group on Financial Literacy.
Well here is a quiz created for that purpose coutesy of the Fed. (This is not a joke)
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/04/09/bernanke-backs-financial-literacy-take-the-quiz/?mod=WSJBlog
off topic,,, a few weeks ago we spoke here about getting 911 from the local telco , even if we only use cell or internet .
can some one refresh on that .
thks
#121 njpatient: Got it, long day yesterday, I guess I did not read it right. Speaking of certain towns. How about certain counties?
My local town paper in their weekly ask the realtor column had this gem yesterday.
Basically said Bergen Co. is fine and prices are not and will not be dropping.
Is that a record for this time of year?
When you take into account the normal seasonal variation, we’ve been setting records every month. While year over year increases have slowed, inventory is still increasing. My guess is that we’re going to top last year by approx. 5-10%.
#123 sean: Scary!!
#126 grim: Thanks for the read as always.
JB,
Sent you a new graph with a new label on the Y axis to correct the units.
Note: doesn’t change the graph
Ready to buy
I just emailed a seller’s disclousure to James, he could get it also. Give him your email to forward
KL
# 42 “Wag Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
So many fond memories of New Orleans. Chicory cofee at Cafe Du Monde, sitting in the center courtyard at Pat O’Briens enjoying many a hurricane, the best crab cakes the world has to offer, Jazz. Enjoy Patient, enjoy…”
The best courtyard in New Orleans, in this man’s humble opinion, is at:The Hotel Maison de Ville
727 Rue Toulouse, New Orleans, LA 70130
It is a great little hotel especially for a wekend getaway. A short walk to Jackson Square to pick up some bignets and then take them across to the Moonwalk to watch the river traffic.
#123 – If they weren’t dead serious about that quiz it would be hysterical.
Rent,
Updated
re: (126)
Grim, no way of keeping track of FSBO?
How about using the Zillow number for NJ 3,486.
Is that a record for this time of year?
Pant up demand in hiatus?
Or can’t put down payment on Costco card?
“We need to do another GTG.”
May 5 perhaps?
In case anyone missed my earlier posts, I emailed a couple of the realtors yesterday who have been sending me listings almost on a daily basis for a while now. I basically thanked them for continuously sending me listings and also stated that I felt prices were still too high and said that sellers need to realize that conditions are not the same as they were a couple of years ago. I also said that even for someone like myself with a solid FICO plus savings plus equity in a current home, it’s a stretch even to consider buying the most modest home in a decent town.
The first and only response (so far) I received was like it went in the left ear and out the right. Things are heating up, the party never ended in some towns and do you want me to assess your current home? Those are the points stated by the one realtor. It’s as if anything I said was not even up for discussion. I’ll post the response from the others but I just wanted to throw it out there as food for thought.
Clotpoll Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Who said Enron never gave us anything of actual value?
They raised the off-balance sheet vehicle to an art form.
clot: I am waiting for my settlement check….I’ll let everyone know what it is when it shows up. I would think maybe some time before Labor Day. 4/30/08 is the filing cut-off…$8.2B in the pot.
gary,
Not uncommon for Realtors to partake of their own batch of kool-aid.
dollar=toiletpaper Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
GREAT HANDLE! :)
grim Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 9:28 am
gary,
Not uncommon for Realtors to partake of their own batch of kool-aid.
Don’t they know Scarface’s rule?
#137 gary: The denial is just amazing to me, and I am as cynical as they come. I just do not get it.
What are these certain towns where the party never ended? Of course I know that here will always be buyers and sellers in a market, but I am a little amazed that it appears to realtors ansdat least some buyers, that all is well.
Lending has tightened, and yet there still appear to be people out there getting approved for mtg money.
How does that Sinclair quote go?
“It’s impossible to make a man understand something when his livelihood depends on him not understanding it.”
# 104 I hear that both Spitzer and Clinton both love BJs. It is their favorite store by far, although Silda and Hillary won’t let them shop there alone anymore.
“Prices are declining. It is inevitable.”
– Paulson
Shore
131 shore
Agree
Mrs. Patient is the native Orleanian. She doesn’t let me miss much.
Just waiting for Paulson to say that he and the Treasury support
a strong dollarstrong home prices. Then I’ll know for sure thatthe dollarhousing is done.Al Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
“Brilliant – I am thinking of making a T-Shirt and wear it while meeting realtors and looking for houses”
I’ll take 4. Where do I send the check?
Hey, I just read that book. Did the Dow ever hit 36,000?
# 115 Skunk cabbage? Or, if you really want to send a message try Amorphophallus titanum. Its common name is the “corpse flower.” It is supposed to be the world’s biggest and worst smelling flower. It is supposed to smell like a rotting corpse or, some say, an outhouse on a hot day. Ummmmm. Lovely.
grim Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Just waiting for Paulson to say that he and the Treasury support a strong dollar strong home prices. Then I’ll know for sure that the dollar housing
I was listening to his testimony on NPR this morning – HE said: that home prices are falling, that the last 4-5 years there was unsustainable growth in home prices, ad that they are focused on prevention of Avoidable foreclosures.
149 “Did the Dow ever hit 36,000”
Have you ever taken a close look at the cover? It is not 36,000, it is 3,600.00
#151 Avoidable foreclosures
Another great oxymorin
I still prefer NAR Chief eCONomist
“I’ll take 4. Where do I send the check?”
I would buy a couple T-shirts myself. I feel like renting has the copyright and should slap something together on cafe-whateveritis and make a little money off of us.
Every time I look at that chart, I get a fresh chuckle.
and 146/47 were pretty funny, too.
# 151 “HE said: that home prices are falling, that the last 4-5 years there was unsustainable growth in home prices”
When people like Paulson, who are among the chief cheerleaders for the economy are making statements like this, it is a such a stark change from the recent past that it further persuades me that things are going to get even worse than I thought even a few months ago. Maybe Dow 3,600.00 will be W’s legacy.
Concert-style t-shirt with a front and back.
Chart on front, quotes on back.
3b Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 9:02 am
“#118 clot Is that a record for this time of year?”
I kept a loose running tally of GSMLS inventory in 2007. It surpassed 35K in the late June/early July timeframe and peaked at just over 36K on September 20.
Interesting Read..
How do the economy and the market behave in an “average” recession?
http://www.hussman.net/rsi/recessduration.htm
“The time-frames backed out of this analysis are intended to provide general perspective, not to provide specific points to expect turns or make investment decisions. There is too much variance in the length of recessions and the behavior of stocks to count on their average performance. But it’s important to keep in mind that stock market declines triggered by the onset of a recession tend to be longer and the losses more severe than the results for the “average” bear market.”
Wow..huge Brigadoon reduction.
966 Woodmere Drive
List Price $1.3 Mil
Sold 3/08: $725K
DOM: 366
I know some people list way over-market but this sounds like something went very wrong.
Also, I think there are lots of buyers sitting on the sidelines. 3 guys in my group (15 people) are starting to put offers in. They were waiting for a correction.
Nice graphic of one Denver neighborhood’s foreclosure mess from USA Today.
Don’t think I’d like to be one of the homeowners surrounded on three sides by foreclosed/REO homes. Ack!
oops, here’s the link…
http://www.usatoday.com/news/graphics/foreclosure_map/foreclose.htm
Sen. Dodd urges U.S. to insure new mortgages for homeowners
http://www.city-data.com/forum/real-estate/300999-offers-sellers-2008-a.html
From MarketWatch:
Housing pain continues to spread
Ongoing weakness in the market for previously owned U.S. homes is a signal the key spring sales season is off to a poor start and a reminder that softness in residential housing is still spreading, analysts said Thursday.
“Overall, it illustrates just how much more national this housing downturn is than any other in recent memory,” Deutsche Bank wrote in a research note.
“The mortgage crisis is clearly the common culprit, sapping demand through tighter standards and accelerating home-price declines through distressed inventory,” said analysts Nishu Sood and Rob Hansen. “Most remaining housing imbalances are in the resale market, so we argue that resale trends are the most important in evaluating the housing market’s trajectory.”
…
“As resale prices decline we don’t expect a spike in volumes as the housing market has experienced in previous downturns. In short, we feel that the severe overbuilding and price appreciation is causing a prolonged downturn,” they said. “Lastly, we note that continued deterioration in the job market has the potential to exacerbate price and volume declines.”
Meanwhile, the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to rise and further dampen demand. The markets Deutsche Bank tracks saw resale listings rise nearly 2% in March, in line with seasonal averages.
“Resale listings have been rising for nearly three years, so some moderation in the pace of increase was to be expected. We expect listings to continue to follow seasonal patterns and increase in the coming months, implying a worsening months’ supply situation against dwindling volumes,” the analysts wrote in the report.
New Jersey voting machines are subpoenaed for testing
Something is rotten in the state of New Jersey
http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/04/10/jersey-voting-machines
By Egan Orion: Thursday, 10 April 2008, 11:51 AM
YESTERDAY a court subpoenaed electronic voting machines in six New Jersey counties that had exhibited discrepancies during the recent primary election.
Superior Court Judge Linda Feinberg ordered the counties’ elections officials to produce the machines no later than next Tuesday for testing by an independent computer expert.
Elections clerks had discovered vote tabulation discrepancies in 60 machines when they checked vote tallies following New Jersey’s presidential primary held on February 5th. The counts of Democratic and Republican voters recorded on cartridge printouts didn’t match the paper tape backups inside the machines.
Voting activists opposed to “black box” touch screen electronic voting machines then sought to have the machines examined. Representing them, Penny Venetis of the Rutgers University law clinic argued, “We’re entitled to this. In order to succeed in our case and show [that] Sequoia machines are insecure and can be hacked into, we need to look at these machines.”
Michelle Shafer, speaking for Sequoia Voting Systems from California, said that the company would try to have the subpoenas quashed.
Venetis shot back that Sequoia is not a party to the case and therefore lacks standing to object.
The state elections clerks’ association joined the voting activists in calling for independent testing. They asked that Princeton University computer science professors Edward Felton and Andrew Appel, both of whom have investigated electronic voting machines and testified before Judge Feinberg, examine the Sequoia machines at issue.
Sequoia has resisted calls for any independent testing of its electronic voting machines. As we reported last month, Professor Felten said the company sent him an email threatening to sue him if he conducted any testing of its machines. Sequoia also threatened to sue its customers, the counties’ elections officials, if they submitted the dodgy voting machines in question for independent testing.
County elections officials backed off, but the Constitutional Officers Association of New Jersey asked that the state Attorney General’s office have the voting machines independently examined. The state Attorney General’s office didn’t act. Meanwhile, the state Elections Division was transferred to report to the Department of State.
Sequoia then claimed that it welcomed third party independent reviews so much that it was willing to sponsor one by hiring a supposedly “independent” company named Kwaidan Consulting to perform a full review on its behalf.
When the voting activist website Brad Blog looked into Kwaidan Consulting, it found that it consisted of one Mike Gibbons, a “blonde nymphomaniac” seeking 50-year old babe magnet living in Sugar Land, Texas, according to his cached MySpace page. Who would want Princeton professors if they could have him?
We’re not lawyers here, of course. However, parties who provide information or evidence in response to court subpoenas generally can’t be sued successfully for doing so, and neither can experts who conduct court ordered examinations, we believe.
So, unless Sequoia can get those subpoenas quashed, it would appear that its “black box” touch screen electronic voting machines will get a careful looking into in New Jersey before too long.
Union County Clerk Joanne Rajoppi was disturbed to see Sequoia’s resistance to independent testing. She said, “Obviously, they feel there is something they must protect.” µ
#157 Bystander
From denial, have we bypassed anger and moved through to acceptance
#161 How can Denver go down? They aren’t making any more mountains you know.
/Sarcasm
156 grim
Yeah –
Renting, you should do it. Or license it to grim if you don’t have time.
2006 – “We can’t just give it away”
2007 – “Rebound next year”
2008 – HELP!!!!!
I feel like renting has the copyright and should slap something together on cafe-whateveritis and make a little money off of us
Please feel free to do whatever you would like with it. I would frankly be more interested in seeing it get some circulation for its educational benefits rather than making anything off of it.
If you feel compelled, please visit JB’s donation box .
If you feel compelled
#167 T-shirt slogans
“Pride of rentership”
“Bagholders of America unite”
“T-shirt $12…
Passport renewal $80
Foreign Language course $200
Not owning a home….priceless”
171…I love owning a home. FYI.
bairen Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 10:38 am
#161 How can Denver go down? They aren’t making any more mountains you know.
/Sarcasm
I just got email from a friend in denver – he said and I quote:
“Area is booming, there is a lot of construction going on, no slowdown here” – kind of clueless he is… P.S.
I am very familiar with neighborhood from link #161…
In fact one of the foreclosed homes was my other friend’s home which he sold 3 years ago to a Iraq War Veteran, for about 50K profit in 2 years of holding. He could have sold it for 610K more (he had an offer) but he said – I prefer to sell it to a war veteran as he was fighting for our country..
when he sold it he said –
“I just can not believe I can make 50K for moving into a brand new home, using it for 2 years and selling it.
If I save really hard I will save 50K in about 3 years… So I am selling. Apparently my house working harder than I do…..”
Also click on regional map on that link. Scary
#173 That’s a pretty depressing map.
Wait till gas is $4 a gallon and food is up another 10%.
I am not so sure I would like ‘selling’ a home though….
“David Bain of Bain Real Estate in Kent feels that the Connecticut market has remained healthy despite the national market’s doldrums.”
“‘Buyers are being very cautious right now,’ Mr. Bain said. ‘They’re expecting sellers to come down [on price], and sellers know they don’t have to, because they know that buyers’ mentality is because of bad press. It’s a great time for someone to buy a house. These prices are going to be ones that you will be dreaming about six months from now.’”
“‘I think we are really in a separate market than the national, and we continue to be,’ Mr. Bain continued. ‘Once it’s perceived that you’ve hit the bottom, these prices won’t be available. The sellers will dig their heels in all the more.’”
This is one mentioned previously –
“I was going to make an offer, but I’m insulted by your asking price.”
I would definetly buy that to wear to open houses.
#175 amen Essex. Especially if I bought after 2003 or have a heloc. Hard to compete on price if you have to bring a check to the closing or do a short sale.
Hi, J.B. Would you mind taking the link in 163 out of moderation? It’s a link to a ci ty-da ta forum on some negotiation strategies.
There’s a former realtor, it seems, from NNJ, with a 2nd open house coming up. It sounds like Gary went to her first open house.
She’s really P.O.’d.
#176 Gary,
How can these people sleep at night? Do they really believe that bs or do they have no conscience?
How can these people sleep at night? Do they really believe that bs or do they have no conscience?
Stupid question – it is their job to sell houses. If it is your job to sell alcohol, somebody got drunk and died – it is your faoult??
#167 T-shirt slogans
“I’m not renting, I’m arbitraging”
Or a slightly differ version:
“I’m not a renter, I’m a housing arbitrager”
“#167 T-shirt slogans”
I’m living the American dream, I rent.
#181 Al it’ not a stupid question.
Can you really sell something you don’t believe in or know is probably harmful to the consumer? I can’t. I hated some of the calls I took when I was doing home equity loans. I had no problem with people borrowing to pay for school, start a business, expand their house since their family grew and they didn’t want to move.
I hated taking calls from alleged professional investors who wanted IO loans, people borrowing 6 months pay to take a vacation, people installing granite or wanting to buy designer furniture and clothes.
I was very happy to quit.
You all laugh, but watch out for towns like Harrison and Bayonne. They are up and coming areas.
Anyone want to live at the River Park at Harrison?
http://riverparkatharrison.com/
#176 gary: These prices are going to be ones that you will be dreaming about six months from now.’”
So thos numb nuts is saying that today’s dream prices will be gone in 6 months, and prices will have risen again? He should be hung drawn ad quartered.
I was in Stamfors CT last Sunday, and there were for sale signs everywhere. And a friend who lives there tells me the market is absolutely dead.
# 171 essex:I love owning a home. FYI.
Of course as long as the home does not own you.
#159 Also, I think there are lots of buyers sitting on the sidelines. 3 guys in my group (15 people) are starting to put offers in. They were waiting for a correction.
I think those 3 guys are too early, the correction appears to be just getting started in many areas.
#157 schlivo: Thanks.
#156 grim; I would do that.
“Anyone want to live at the River Park at Harrison?”
Only if you want to live with the vagrants that are hanging out there. They’ll probably shift the entire complex westward, right into the river.
176 gary
I just called Bain’s offices.
It didn’t go well.
gary: This one is for you. Your chance to live in prestigious train town/blue ribbon River Edge. located on quaint historic Kinderkamack Rd.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07661&bd=3&bth=2&typ=2&sid=fed21a6701ee48b287179bb94407b081&lid=1086831859&lsn=3&srcnt=17
njpatient,
C’mon man, gimme some details. :)
3b,
It’s a real charmer. I better hurry and get my checkbook because this one won’t last.
I dont own a home
The State of NJ owns the land
the bank owns the house
OK, grim…what’s the scoop on this house in Ramsey: MLS ID#2809826 — address, DOM, price changes, etc. Thanks. A friend of mine is looking and really liked Ramsey.
The bank owns the borrower.
What did you think Bush was talking about when he said “Ownership Society”.
Surely we aren’t naive enough to believe he actually meant WE would own something, do you?
We aren’t the owners, we are the owned.
#196 gary Well if you do not like it (and you might not only becasue it has only one 1 window on one side, and none on the back), you might want to buy the one located directly behind it, its more modern, and it is attached to 5 more.
However when you move in, you will have to use the back door, because the first one I showed you is so close to the one behind it, that you would not be able to fit a standard size couch in the front door.
It has been reduced to $489k form its OLP of 679K.
Here’s what my tee shirt is going to say:
“Suzanne Got Lowballed”
3b: They should market that house as “General George Washington rode past here on his way to the Van Steuban house. Own a piece of NJ History”
195 gary
meh – I just told them that I was calling because I would be buying a house next year (true) and that, given his remarks in the Litchfield Press I was quite sure I wouldn’t be buying any house listed by Bain (also true). I was very polite, but all I heard on the other end was a somewhat shocked “Oh…” as I hung up.
3b,
Have you been making offers? I think you had said that you would start making offers in late Jan when the market really started tanking.
Jill
65 Maple Street
Purchased: 2/2/2005
Purchase Price: $410,000
MLS# 2805170
Listed: 2/6/2008
OLP: $440,000
DOM: 35
Withdrawn
MLS# 2809826
Relisted: 3/11/2008
OLP: $436,508
Reduced: $419,000
DOM: 31
Active
“grim Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 9:06 am
When you take into account the normal seasonal variation, we’ve been setting records every month. While year over year increases have slowed, inventory is still increasing. My guess is that we’re going to top last year by approx. 5-10%.”
Grim, does the GSMLS inventory data go back to the early 1990s, the trough of the last cycle?
good question, pret
Historical Houses in River Edge:
Ackerman-Zabriskie-Steuben House
Campbell-Christie House
Debaun-Demarest House
Demarest House
Steuben Estate Complex
Steuben House
funny, I can’t seem to locate crappy house with townhouses in the backyard!
Pre,
Unfortunately, no, 2001 is the earliest on GSMLS. NJMLS goes back earlier, but really only covers Bergen.
Great article & heat maps from WSJ on mortgage delinquencies…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120776827998402453.html?mod=hps_us_inside_today
Rate of Mortgage Delinquencies Rises
Foreclosures Are
Also Increasing,
New Report Shows
By RUTH SIMON
April 10, 2008; Page D3
Mark 124 Re 911
If you have a hardline in the house then 911 should work even if you do not have phone service. federal law requires that phone companies accept 911 calls from any phone on their network. The catch would be if the physically disconnect the hardline from the house. You can check this using a voltmeter and seeing if you get a reading from the phone line. The reading should be around 40 Volts DC, but can fluctuate quit a bit. if you really wanted to test it you could dial 911 then apologize to the operator. Dont hang up on them, they do not appreciate it.
Complements of implode lender,
This in turns FHA and the FED into sbprime lenders of a subprime currency. I just can’t see why anyone would lend US dollars with a 6% rate over 30 yrs.
This is reaaaaallly bad.
http://ml-implode.com/info/downpayment_asst.gif
According to the NAR, NJ house sales are down significantly from the 2003-2004 peak, but remain slightly above the 2000 level.
This data begins in 2000 so hard to measure current sales pace against level during previous downturns.
According to this data, 2007 sales volume was consistent with 2000-2002 – 125,000 and 150,000 houses per year.
Sorry, last part should say “between 125,000 and 150,000 houses per year.”
210 hard
pull quote: “A report released Wednesday by UBS AG suggests that foreclosures won’t peak until the middle of next year.”
gary: If modern town hosue living in a historic landmark is not to your liking, perhaps the listing below will better suit you and yoru familiies life style needs.
This could be your chance for luxurious colonial living in prestigious blue ribbon/train town/ Bergen Co/River Edge.
Charn and sophisication abound in this totally renovated Reis colonial. It is located on the corner of Kinderkamamck Rd, and Clarnedon Ct. (prestigious sounding no?
It was known for many years as the pigeon house,as the old woman who lived there had several coups in the back yard.
However this solidly constructed Reis Colonial was sold in December of 2007, for 325K.
It has been totally updated (Home Dpeot Special), and it is your chance to live in prestigious River Edge.
Additional features include bus to NYC right on the corner of you house ( I mean right on the corner). In addition you can walk to the train if you would like.
But that is not all, it is right across the street from Sanducci’s a wonderful (and it is) Italian Trattoria.
Now picture this its summer time and you and mrs.gary can put you name in with the hostess,and simply sit in you backyard and wait for the announcement to come over the PA system: “gary party of 2 yout table is ready.” (You might have to listen closely becasue Kinkerkamack Rd. is very noisy/busy)
If that is not enough you are also across the street from a wonderful Italian deli (Dante’s, and it is), and an abandoend gas station that is slated to be home to a new convenience store.
This well priced home has been recently reduced from 499K, to a wonderful new price of 469K.
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07661&typ=1&sid=eb86d928af904b9f809eb8460dabd539&pg=2&lid=1096432967&lsn=16&srcnt=59#Photo
AP: The Senate has passed a bill aimed at boosting the housing market and easing the threat of foreclosures.
# 182 “How can these people sleep at night? Do they really believe that bs or do they have no conscience”
Remember the old saying, “A stiff, ummm, realtor, has no conscience.”
Nothing personal, it is only business.
#217, any more detail? link?
njpatient,
Given job losses have just started over last 6 months, i wouldn’t doubt it maybe as late as late next year or early 2010. Foreclosures probably has strong correlation to job losses. So when unemployment peaks foreclosures will probably peak 6-12 months after given the length of foreclosure process and burn rate of homeowners remaining cash.
Layoffs Watch ’08: Citi
http://dealbreaker.com/2008/04/layoffs_watch_08_citi.php
#208 tbw: A local self-styled historian claimed that the house (facade) was historic, and as such the town would not let the developer pull it down. So he redid the inside, vinyl sided the outside, and left the facade the same.
3b [216],
I’ll only consider it if the house comes with a pony.
# 196 “better hurry because this one won’t last.”
Is that realtor speak for “termites have eaten most of the supporting structure”?
#223 gary: Maybe there are still some pigeons left, you could keep up the tradition.
223 gary
Any time you see a pile of crap that large, there’s bound to be a pony somewhere.
224 shore
I might have to call and ask. “What do you mean, it won’t last? Is it on the verge of collapse??”
227 It could be funny.
# 225 All you would need then is one of those turkey frying vats and it will help reduce the food bill in these inflationary times.
. if you really wanted to test it you could dial 911 then apologize to the operator.
Also a good way to meet your local police.
I was just looking at the denver foreclosure map. The thing that struck me is how small the mortgages were. Most are not much above a downpayment for a decent house in NJ.
230 Grim,
Once the little Grims come along and get old enough, around three, you may experience this as they try out what they learned in nursery school.
Today’s Updates
Senate Passes Housing Stimulus Bill in 84-12 Vote
Posted April 10, 2008, 12:23 PM ET
The Senate voted 84-12 on April 10 to pass legislation (H.R. 3221) intended to help reduce foreclosures and support the housing sector through new tax incentives.
With amendments that would extend certain energy tax credits and provide specific aid to home owners in the Gulf Coast region relating to grants provided following the hurricanes of 2005, the bill provides more than $18 billion in new aid.
Critics of the bill have said it does more to help businesses than the average home owner and a separate package approved by the House Ways and Means Committee on April 9 excluded a controversial $6.1 billion tax break—an extension of net operating loss carryback provision—that was the centerpiece of the Senate’s tax package.
Senate Votes to Add One-Year of Renewable Energy Tax Credits to Housing Bill
Posted April 10, 2008, 12:20 PM ET
The Senate voted 88-8 April 10 to adopt an amendment to its housing stimulus bill (H.R. 3221) that would provide $6 billion in tax incentives for renewable energy use or production.
The amendment, offered by Sens. John Ensign (R-Nev.) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), would extend the in-service date for the renewable energy production tax credit from Dec. 31, 2008, through Dec. 31, 2009, and would extend and modify a residential tax credit for home owners who can claim a personal tax credit if they buy equipment such as a solar water heater.
A separate amendment from Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) was voted down 15-79. The Alexander amendment would have extended the energy tax credits for two years and halved the wind energy tax credit.
Full news reports on today’s Daily Tax RealTime™ updates will appear in the next edition of the Daily Report. Text of all documents referenced here will be published in the accompanying edition of TaxCore®. Document links remain active for one week.
(209 / 213)
Actually, NJMLS only has historical inventory data going back to 2004
Bergen County
April 1
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
3,342 3,288 5,330 5,526 5,956
May 1
2004 2005 2006 2007
3,546 3,567 5,809 5,972
Current: 6,066
———-
Sales data goes back to 1995
Year Sold U/C
1995 7,619 8,649
1996 8,185 9,679
1997 8,961 9,564
1998 9,759 10,498
1999 9,756 9,571
2000 9,193 9,736
2001 9,022 9,460
2002 9,864 10,160
2003 10,150 10,659
2004 10,684 11,147
2005 10,612 10,973
2006 8,657 9,562
2007 8,035 8,669
“Critics of the bill have said it does more to help businesses than the average home owner”
Well, that explains why it had such broad support in the Senate.
I believe there was pet talk on the site a couple of days ago, so I thought this story was relevant to share:
Vernon Hill Ex-Commerce Bank Chairman’s new venture:
That’s right insurance for your dog or cat. A Philadelphia company called Petplan USA has named Hill its chairman.
Hill hasn’t disclosed how much he’s invested in these private ventures, and the Petplan deal is no different.
Petplan co-founder Natasha Ashton would say only that the firm raised a substantial amount of money in an investment round that included Hill and various European investors.
Ashton said she was thrilled that Hill would be lending his expertise to Petplan, calling him a “tremendous mentor.”
Ashton and her husband, Chris, met Hill through the University of Pennsylvania’s School of Veterinary Medicine. Hill, a dog lover, gave $10 million to Penn’s vet school in 2005.
The Ashtons were both MBA students at the Wharton School when their cat, Bodey, got sick and the treatment prompted them to change the business plan they were working on.
About $5,000 in veterinary care bills later, the Ashtons became convinced there is a potentially huge market for pet insurance in the United States.
They designed policies, got licenses to operate in all 50 states, and convinced the largest pet insurance provider in the United Kingdom – Petplan UK – to give them the exclusive license for the United States.
Petplan USA was launched in 2006 and now employs 11 in an office building near the Philadelphia International Airport. Ashton would not say how many policies it has sold.
She said that Petplan will benefit from Hill’s experience as it starts to ramp up on a larger scale. “He’s fanatical about customer service,” Ashton said.
For his part, Hill admits pet insurance is a departure from his emphasis on retail-oriented enterprises. “I really like these two kids,” he said. “I have tremendous admiration for what they’ve accomplished with no contacts and very little money.”
Pet insurance is well-established in Europe. But less than 1 percent of the 163 million dogs and cats in the United States are insured, Ashton said.
“There’s a very great need for this product. Maybe its time has come,” Hill said.
grim (139)-
Any Kool-Aid I drink will be of the Jim Jones Original variety. :)
Trichet needs to take a chill pill and get on board, crank up those presses.
“European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled he’s still not ready to cut interest rates even as the credit squeeze poses a greater threat to economic growth than policy makers anticipated.”
“We are experiencing a rather protracted period of temporarily high annual rates of inflation,” Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt today after the ECB kept its key rate at 4 percent. While financial-market tension may have “a broader than currently expected impact on the real economy,” ensuring price stability is “very serious for us,” he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=armg9RkeRAII&refer=home
McCain’s plan
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/10/news/economy/mccain_econ_plan/index.htm?postversion=2008041012
So under McCain’s plan, if a borrower owes $150,000 on a home worth only $100,000, the lender would have to reduce the loan to $90,000. The $60,000 difference in principal would be split three ways: The lender and federal government would get as much as $20,000 each, depending on how much the home sells for when the borrower moves, and the owner would get the rest.
The new mortgage would be a 30-year fixed rate loan, and the government would back 80% of the new loan.
>>
Sounds good to me!
So we (taxpayers) pony up ten grand for every $150k in underwater loans.
It would be better to just hand the homedebtor a check for $10 grand, hand the keys to the bank, and walk.
And it would be much more educmacational.
i am confused about McCain’s plan….are they thinking that the house is going to sell for 150K? if it sells for 90K then, the seller is out a whole lot of money…never mind the realtor’s commission is going to be drastically cut! and we know that ain’t going to happen!
“We are experiencing a rather protracted period of temporarily high annual rates of inflation,” Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt today after the ECB kept its key rate at 4 percent.
huh..protracted period of temporary inflation! Who is writing his remarks?
Write off 40% of the loan and in the process give some schmuck a 10% equity stake now and a portion of the profits made even if sold below the original loan amount? This is Fu@*ed up, and does not bode well for the future of the republic. What ever happened to the rugged individualism of Americans? Now, we all seem to ant to be protected by our nanny state. God help us if any of these harebrained mortgage plans go through.
242 Minimally large huge reductions in rich poor nations divesting investments across the interior frontiers of European globalism, was his prior statement, no?
#177
““David Bain of Bain Real Estate in Kent feels that the Connecticut market has remained healthy despite the national market’s doldrums.”
What a jack@ss. Kent is in Litchfield County which second home market for the NYC crowd. It isn’t even the most desireable second home market. There is zero urgency for buyers looking in Kent right now
Who said there is a job shortage?
http://web2.minasi.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=5161
We are seeking some poor, misguided fool to be paid next to nothing for a full-time position doing highly skilled System Administration work and Rearend Penetration Testing in a mixed Windows 2000 and Unix environment. We lost our last IT worker because he found a higher paying job standing in front of Subway while dressed as a
sandwich.
Duties and Skills required:
* At LEAST 5 years experience in the Administration of Windows 2000 Environment.
* Administration of Unix.
* The ability to speak with animals.
* SQL Server.
* The divine power of bi-location (being 2 places at once).
* Be the single point of contact for every whim project and bright idea from managers and end users pertaining to the computer systems.
* Must be able to answer stupid questions all day long.
* Must be willing to mule around computers just because the user, “…does not like the way it looks in that corner.”
* The ability to have someone lie to your face, and not call bull**** on it.
* Internet Information Server
* Must like to hear the question “When are we getting faster computers?” 3 times a day.
* Veritas Backup Exec
* Must be able to answer tech support questions, while sitting on the tiolet.
* At a moments notice, set up a complete training areas complete with Computers, LCD projector, and screen.
* Provide remedial computer training for new hires since managers neglect to ask about computer skills.
* Be the person who gets all the email hoaxes mailed to them to see if they are “real” or not.
* Single point of contact for all paper jam issues on any copiers/printers.
* Systems Management Server
* Stay late on most evenings because your boss can’t find the time to talk to YOU during business hours, unless of course HE needs something.
* Ability to explain why users can’t install the Weather Bug, or thier Daily Bible Verse screensavers.
* Provide SECURE access from the internet to email and files.
* Be the whipping boy when systems are down.
* Be able to read minds or tell what people need without actually speaking to them.
* Cisco 1600 Series Routers
* Ability to provide advice for users on picking out a new home computer.
* Be able to deduce what “thingie” and “the big box” actually translates to when providing phone support.
The position will involve the general maintenance of the servers as well as doing any old thing that has ANYTHING to do with computers. We want YOU to run EVERTHING we use to make money, but we want to give you **** for a salary.
Pay is in the range of $10-15/hr.
We are looking for a unemployed slob who doesn’t know his worth, or has kids to feed and has no choice but to run the MOST CRITICAL parts of our enterprise for peanuts.
Current question to Bernanke live is about preventing Japanese type economic stagnation.
O.K. What he says, “We have a very different situation….the market is very sharp about producing information…no possibility that we would go a decade with realizing…” Had some break up there but that’s pretty much what I heard.
Why is our market so much sharper at seeing these things than Japan’s was?
#239 njbear; And how is a potential home buyer supposed to make any realistic determination as towhat the true value of the house really is, when this kind of market distortion/manipulation might take place.
#246 – I don’t know if that’s a joke or just the most honest IT job ad I’ve ever seen.
Of course it’s a joke… I hope.
tosh…they forgot the part about the IT guy needing to be on call from 8 am to 5 pm for any copier jams as users are unable to read the pictures on the inside of the doors.
246 “Rearend Penetration Testing”
I dont think I would do that for $10-15 an hour.
Oops, no it’s there.
Of course, it makes a difference if one is the tester or the testee, I suppose.
“McCain’s plan”
this is BS an an embarrassment to the GOP (as if they needed another). isn’t this supposed to be the party of personal responsibility?
I think most politicians are underestimating the general public’s distaste for bailouts. It is not just renters who are against it– any homeowner who sensibly purchased a home is probably against bailouts as well. This is the vast majority of the country
249 3b]
IMO, the best part of this plan is that it will maintain status quo.
Banks will not want to write off more than what they really have to.
As a homeowner you want to keep 100% of the gains. 33% is not encouraging.
243 shore
agree
that proposal is seriously f*cked up.
“As a homeowner you want to keep 100% of the gains.”
this is assuming there will be gains. I would trade nonexistant equity for debt any day of the week
252 shore
“I dont think I would do that for $10-15 an hour.”
You probably don’t even think we’ve reached the bottom.
255 skep
That’d be personal responsibility for thee but not for mee.
eerie quiet…
#261 Maybe they all are inquiring how much a person dressed as a subway sandwich gets paid.
Sadly the job description does describe some companies I worked for.
Hey can someone provide me info on
MLS 5271713
How much it was purchase for
Current prop taxes
any info would be apprecaited
Clot,
How many more days to the Sales Rally?
Who the h%%l are these 28%?
Public approval of President Bush has reached a new low in the Associated Press-Ipsos poll, driven by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy.
A survey released Thursday showed just 28 percent approve of the overall job he is doing. His previous record low in the poll was 30 percent last month.
In another record low, only 27 percent are happy with his job on the economy, which threatens to enter a recession.
Hey, guys-
How about we team up and do a low ball this one?
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/rfs/625506569.html
I can afford about 1/10 on a 50% low ball. ;)
John
wouldn’t live there for free…man that’s a creepy house
Don’t know about creepy, a little institutional. Looks like they were going for English County Manor but got English country asylum/hospital instead.
#266-
Looks like the scene of a scary killer movie. Eeewww
#266
Why do so many realtor type in all caps? Man is that annoying.
HE (264)-
Dunno. I’ll have to go home tonight and see how many chalk “I” lines I’ve scribbled onto the wall next to my bed.
re: (266) Right behind that old mansion was an old Nike base (anti-nuke missle base) on Campgaw mountain. I spent some time up in the woods “hunting” there nearly 20 years ago before Rt. 287 was completed. I believe the old Nike base is now McMansions and a horse riding area.
Lots of Weird stuff in New Jersey.
Hawk (266)-
Who’s the seller, Count Dracula?
Maybe you should a construction paper chain and remove a link each day like it was a countdown to X-mas?
Maybe I should get a magazine of hollow-point bullets and remove one each day…
266
Is there a giant maze made of shrubbery in the backyard?
please, could you give me some info about MLS ID# 2470194?
thanks a lot
Shrubbery? It is a good one but not too expensive.
Stop hating that’s a beautiful home. You need at least 20 people working there full time around the clock to maintain this home.
I think it’s priced a little too cheap.
For a crowd of people who makes fun of Granire, Marble and stucco McCmansions I can’t believe you don’t like this home.
yes, Craigslist is overrun with billionaires looking to buy 10 mil homes.
Dear Readers,
The College of Staten Island, CSI/CUNY and the Urban Transportation Research Center is holding a conference tomorrow on housing and land use issues on Staten Island that might be of interest to members of this community. For more information see this link: http://www.utrc2.org/events/events.php?viewid=192
Hope you can join us.
For the full schedule and directions, email me at Flanagan@mail.csi.cuny.edu
“are” holding :)
#267 Looks like Marlboro Psychiatric
Still I would live there.
279 make
How many butlers would you need? How much work would it be to butle that place? It’s in need of a lot of butling.
I for one don’t understand what the hell everyone is jumping up and down about. So you did a chart and posted some quotes from NAR. So what? There’s no evidence that the comments you posted are linked in anyway to home sales. You, by sleight of hand, are trying to imply that at every inflection point, NAR made the quoted comments. Where exactly is your evidence?
All you did was drawn a chart on the wrong scale and posted a few quotes. That’s not a big deal but some in the gallery here are turning somersaults. Give me a damn break.
RentinginNJ Says:
April 9th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Glad everyone likes the chart
Sorry for the discrepancy on the scale. I will send a new chart to JB tomorrow. Note: this won’t change the chart. I just mislabeled the units of sales as “millions” should have been “tens of thousands”
Thanks for the catch BklynHawk
Your democratically controlled congress has an even lower approval rating. Why didn’t you bother to mention that?
You liberals kill me.
Victorian Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Who the h%%l are these 28%?
Public approval of President Bush has reached a new low in the Associated Press-Ipsos poll, driven by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy.
A survey released Thursday showed just 28 percent approve of the overall job he is doing. His previous record low in the poll was 30 percent last month.
In another record low, only 27 percent are happy with his job on the economy, which threatens to enter a recession.
#185 have you considered attending Anger Management classes?
#285
50.5,
How about this chart? The stock of our country.
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?jav=adv&vol=Y&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym=DXM8&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv
272 Right on, there is a lot of weird stuff in NJ
http://weirdnj.com/
There is even a website, not to mention several books, on just that subject.
No one here is mentioned by name, are they?
When will Home Builders start offering Happy Hour pricing, 2 for 1?
“There’s no evidence that the comments you posted are linked in anyway to home sales. You, by sleight of hand, are trying to imply that at every inflection point, NAR made the quoted comments. Where exactly is your evidence?
REBagholder,
There is no sleight of hand. Every quote was taken directly from the monthly NAR existing home sales press release coinciding with the data point indicated on the graph. Both the quote and existing sales number were in the same release.
You are free to check for yourself at: http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/index.html
The scale on the chart currently posted is correct.
290 Ray
No.
Not by name.
“Maybe I should get a magazine of hollow-point bullets and remove one each day…”
Or put one in each day
Recoward!
My favorite martian!
#286 realestatecrybaby: You real estate cry babies arm chair patriots kill me.
#286 – Ah! I found the 28% !!
#285 recrybaby: Just how dim witted are you?
# 262 “I believe the old Nike base is now McMansions and a horse riding area.”
Middletown had a similar base turned into a housing tract and a number of the homes have underground chambers beneath them. Great for Halloween.
# 284 “How many butlers would you need? ”
Answer: None.
What does one need instead? Answer: French Maids, LOTS of ’em. (For those keeping score, Mrs. Shore just wacked me so hard I can feel the bruise starting alrerady). Still, the French Maids are worth a bit of pain.
# 291 Maybe ladies night. Come to an open house before a certain hour and remain until the end, looking interested, and earn points towards upgrades in the unit you buy.
300 shore
Indeed, they go together (lost, clot?)
302
:) I think it depends who’s wearing the uniform.
Make –
That is not a beautiful home, it is a wannabe.
This is a beautiful home. OK, mansion:
http://www.castlehoward.co.uk/metadot/index.pl
I was just re-reading this:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/10/news/economy/mccain_econ_plan/index.htm?postversion=2008041012
“So under McCain’s plan, if a borrower owes $150,000 on a home worth only $100,000, the lender would have to reduce the loan to $90,000. The $60,000 difference in principal would be split three ways: The lender and federal government would get as much as $20,000 each, depending on how much the home sells for when the borrower moves, and the owner would get the rest.”
Who the aitch-ee-double-hockey-sticks is going to determine what the home is “worth”?!?
We’re going to create a new federal agency? The Bureau of Real Estate Price Fixing?
‘soosh
Thanks for the picture of the ancestral home!
303 lost
hard to argue with that.
“We’re going to create a new federal agency? The Bureau of Real Estate Price Fixing?”
yes, the U.S. is now one big episode of “My House is Worth What?”
Patient – No prob. Sure you miss it.
As for Jacobean, the hall might have that influence, but the outside, uh, no.
This is Jacobean:
http://www.residential-property-scotland.co.uk/sale_central/findynate.htm
And for sale.
These are great mansions.
http://www.newportmansions.org/
Only about a 4 hour drive from NJ.
#309
If it’s not Scottish, it’s crap!
308 skep
“My House is Worth What?”
Your house is worth what I tell you your house is worth.
This has been another episode of Simple Answers to Simple Questions.
309 ‘soosh
Actually, I was going to buy that one.
But then the dollar fell.
bairen, they are nice, as is Biltmore. There are nice mansions in the US, but that Jersey one, especially on the outside, isn’t particularly special.
Lishoosh, I agree. That NJ one looks very Adam’s familyish to me.
Biltmore is wonderful. I was there last summer. They make wines, grape juice, and some other specialty produce on the grounds. The grape juice was the best I’ve ever had.
grim pls unmoderate 316
Looking at Sothebys – the ultimate in real estate porn – on this coast the grandest old mansions are in New York and Connecticut.
I particularly liked this one:
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/PropertyDetails.aspx?R=100063469&N=12+149+4294967274+4294967219&No=8&PSeq=0
pretorius Says:
“Rhode Island used to have one of the wealthiest populations in the country. Today, the state is dramatically poorer than neighbors Connecticut and Massachusetts and other peers states like New Jersey and New Hampshire.”
It always amazes me how you can recognize Rhode Islands fall from grace but not appreciate that the same thing can happen to any other part of the country, Manhattan included.
Grim, post 318 with link disappeared.
OK people please stop with the real estate pron. My keyboard can only handle so much drool.
Love the moat…http://www.christiesgreatestates.com/properties/view_5249/
#319 lisoosh:AMEN!!!
Will someone send this to real estate ‘writers’ at the NYT, Washington Post, LA Times, etc?
This is fantastic stuff.