Wednesday Random Discussion

Posted on November 18, 2008 by grim

Traveling today on business, will be out of contact for most of the day. I’m planning on being out of the country for the next few days. So please, keep things clean.

Random image of the day:

Discuss.

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294 Responses to Wednesday Random Discussion

  2. Pat says:
    November 18, 2008 at 11:18 pm

    Why does it say nerds. Why do they do that?

  3. grim says:
    November 18, 2008 at 11:18 pm

    Let this one loose too early, should have set the timer for tomorrow morning.

    Night all!

  4. RayC says:
    November 18, 2008 at 11:18 pm

    Did you photoshop your ID #? Be careful, it can probably be undone. Have a nice trip.

  5. BklynHawk says:
    November 18, 2008 at 11:57 pm

    congrats Grim on the new membership and your MBA!

  6. grim says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:39 am

    congrats Grim on the new membership

    Not new, just never posted.

  7. grim says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:46 am

    From the Star Ledger:

    Keeping afloat
    Report shows New Jersey’s housing crisis is deepening

    First, the bad news.

    The New Jersey housing market still looks pretty grim, according to quarterly housing data released yesterday by the National Association of Realtors.

    And the worse news?

    As employers continue to aggressively cut jobs in the face of the nation’s economic crisis, there are jarring signs things may get even worse in a few months.

    Yesterday, the Realtors groups said existing-home sales fell 12.2 percent in New Jersey, as more homebuyers, discouraged by strict lending standards, steep declines in the stock market and a rise in unemployment, dropped out of the market. Nationally, existing home sales, which generally account for 85 percent of total home sales in this country, fell 7.7 percent during the third quarter.

    Meanwhile, home prices, which the NAR releases for metropolitan areas, rather than on a state-by-state basis, continued to fall nationwide, due to the large number of foreclosures, which dominated the third quarter.
    …
    “This decline dispels any illusions that house prices (will) reach bottom before 2009,” said Celia Chen, an economist for Moody’s Economy.com, a West Chester, Pa., research firm.
    …
    In New Jersey, home prices fell in every metropolitan area tracked by the Realtors group except the Trenton-Ewing market, where the median price rose 4.2 percent, to $342,500, thanks to the increase in expensive homes being built in that county.
    …
    Statewide, home prices fell 5 percent, to $312,437, down from $330, 396 during the third quarter, said Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, a real estate research firm based in East Brunswick, which tracks the New Jersey real estate market.

    Otteau said the conditions will deteriorate even further before getting any better.

    The third quarter officially ended on Sept. 30. But over the past two months, the housing market in New Jersey has weakened dramatically due to mounting job losses and the slowing economy.

    For example, in October alone, Otteau said the number of homes contracted for sale in New Jersey fell 28 percent, compared with the previous year, reflecting the weakening jobs picture and the souring economy.
    …
    Hudson County, which Otteau describes as “the sixth borough of New York City” is already feeling the pinch.

    During the third quarter, it was one of the best performing housing markets in New Jersey, with home prices rising a slight 1 percent, to $389,212.

    “We have seen significant weakening in Hudson County over the past two months, directly related to all the trouble in financial markets,” Otteau said.

  8. grim says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:48 am

    For example, in October alone, Otteau said the number of homes contracted for sale in New Jersey fell 28 percent, compared with the previous year, reflecting the weakening jobs picture and the souring economy.

    A drop of 28 percent in October is massive, especially when considering we’re now compounding sharp year over year declines.

    If Jeff’s data is correct, we’ve entered what appears to be the next leg down in NJ housing sales.

  9. crossroads says:
    November 19, 2008 at 6:23 am

    grim
    any predictions for a bottom in NJ real estate?

  10. cooper says:
    November 19, 2008 at 6:28 am

    Kelly Blue Book is coming out with top 10 best resale autos… surprise surprise not one American made

    WOOWOO for Grim

  11. BklynHawk says:
    November 19, 2008 at 6:58 am

    Crossroads/9-
    Not sure about a bottom in NJ real estate, but we should see the full impact of the financial service industry job losses by Oct/Nov 09.

    That doesn’t include the ripple effect in other companies that support Wall Street or indirect losses from a drop in spending. That could be a year or more later.

    With that said, you might be able to say somewhere either between those two points or short/mid-term period after the second point – Apr/May ’10 and Oct/Nov ’11.

    Just my off the cuff/pre-second cup of coffee guess…

  12. grim says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:39 am

    Mortgage apps close to an 8 year low this week. Going to be a rough winter for sellers.

  13. HEHEHE says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:44 am

    Congrats on the MBA!

  14. grim says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:45 am

    NJ unemployment numbers due out later today. Would appreciate if someone could post the numbers up later this afternoon.

    Sitting in Continental terminal C this morning. Awfully quiet here today.

    John, no line at Au Bon Pain and the elite lounge was a ghost town. Armageddon upon us?

  15. grim says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:49 am

    Not done yet, still have one more final to take.

    I’ll say I’m a little ashamed that I won’t be graduating with a four-o. Damn that A- in Monetary and Fiscal Policy. But then again, we all know my views on the topic conflict with the status quo.

  16. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:52 am

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37101d00-b511-11dd-b780-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

    In a weird world, yields on Tips point to deflation

    Would you believe that we shall actually have significant deflation in the US next year? And the year after that? And flat consumer prices for the year following? That’s happened only once in a developed country since the 1930s – when Japan recorded a negative 1.6 per cent consumer price index for 2002.

    Yet, if you believe the yields on US Treasury inflation protected bonds, or Tips, we shall have a 2.2 per cent fall in prices in 2009, a 2.5 per cent decline in 2010 and only flat prices in 2011. If that turns out to be true, the real interest rate burden on even the highest-rated borrowers will be extremely hard to bear…….

  17. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:56 am

    What keeps nj from becoming an employment and housing waste land? the 2 major employers are dead and gone, while prices are based on massive incomes???

    What does a failed NJ look like

    Grim Congrats

  18. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:58 am

    Cancel the ‘blank check’

    U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe said Saturday that Congress was not told the truth about the bailout of the nation’s financial system and should take back what is left of the $700 billion “blank check” it gave the Bush administration. “It is just outrageous that the American people don’t know that Congress doesn’t know how much money he (Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson) has given away to anyone,” the Oklahoma Republican told the Tulsa World. “It could be to his friends. It could be to anybody else. We don’t know. There is no way of knowing.

    http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?articleID=20081116_16_A1_hHecri880405

  19. Secondary Market says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:00 am

    wow, that card is fancier than an amex black.

  20. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:03 am

    http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1829290720081118

    Southern California Market – Clot once told me to watch what happens in So Cal to know the state of affairs for the entire state.

    “Home sales in Southern California in October leapt 66.7 percent from a year earlier and 5 percent from the prior month as buyers jumped on deep discounts in prices, especially for foreclosed properties, MDA Dataquick said in a report released Tuesday.”

    I am totally confused. Blair etal keep talking about “restructuring” loans yet the data shows these folks default again within months of the process. No one (but Roubini) is considering a HOLC type program –

    It is so toally obvious that the prices need to fall for the properties to sell. It is also obvious that the TARP money could have gone to a HOLC program right up front and triage at the banks before the recapitalization took place.

    I was for the bailout but expected a pragmatic, transparent program with intellegent people running it who had the taxpayer’s interests in mind AND I really believed they would put a workable mortgage facility in place and immediately address the CDS problem.

    I feel like a total idiot about now….The world must view us as the most disorganized, bumbling idiots on the face of the earth with the attention span of a gnat.

  23. Sybarite says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:48 am

    http://www.abcnews.go.com/print?id=6285739

    Big Three CEOs Flew Private Jets to Plead for Public Funds

    Auto Industry Close to Bankruptcy But They Get Pricey Perk

    By BRIAN ROSS and JOSEPH RHEE
    November 19, 2008—

    The CEOs of the big three automakers flew to the nation’s capital yesterday in private luxurious jets to make their case to Washington that the auto industry is running out of cash and needs $25 billion in taxpayer money to avoid bankruptcy.

    The CEOs of GM, Ford and Chrysler may have told Congress that they will likely go out of business without a bailout yet that has not stopped them from traveling in style, not even First Class is good enough.

    All three CEOs – Rick Wagoner of GM, Alan Mulally of Ford, and Robert Nardelli of Chrysler – exercised their perks Tuesday by flying in corporate jets to DC. Wagoner flew in GM’s $36 million luxury aircraft to tell members of Congress that the company is burning through cash, asking for $10-12 billion for GM alone.

    “We want to continue the vital role we’ve played for Americans for the past 100 years, but we can’t do it alone,” Wagoner told the Senate Banking Committee.

    While Wagoner testified, his G4 private jet was parked at Dulles airport. It is one of eight luxury jets in the GM fleet that continues to ferry executives around the world despite the company’s dire financial straits.

    “This is a slap in the face of taxpayers,” said Tom Schatz, President of Citizens Against Government Waste. “To come to Washington on a corporate jet, and asking for a hand out is outrageous.”

    Wagoner’s private jet trip to Washington cost his ailing company an estimated $20,000 roundtrip. In comparison, seats on Northwest Airlines flight 2364 from Detroit to Washington were going online for $288 coach and $837 first class.

    After the hearing, Wagoner declined to answer questions about his travel.

    Ford CEO Mulally’s corporate jet is a perk included for both he and his wife as part of his employment contract along with a $28 million salary last year. Mulally actually lives in Seattle, not Detroit. The company jet takes him home and back on weekends.

    Plants Closed, Company Jets Stay
    Mulally made his case Tuesday before the committee saying he’s cut expenses, laid-off workers and closed 17 plants.

    “We have also reduced our work force by 51,000 employees in the past three years,” Mulally said.

    Yet Ford continues to operate a fleet of eight private jets for its executives. Just Tuesday, one jet was taking Ford brass to Los Angeles, another on a trip to Nebraska, and of course Mulally needed to fly to Washington to testify. He did not address questions following the hearing.

    “Now’s not the time to do that sort of thing,” said John McElroy of the television program “Autoline Detroit.”

    “Now’s the time to be humble and show that you’re sharing equally in the sacrifice,” McElroy said.

    GM and Ford say that it is a corporate decision to have their CEOs fly on private jets and that is non-negotiable, even as the companies say they are running out of cash.

    Private jet travel is perhaps the greatest perk of all for CEOs, who say it allows them to travel more efficiently and safely, even in a recession.

    AIG, despite the $150 billion bailout, still operates a fleet of corporate jets. The company says it has put two out of its seven jets up for sale and is reviewing the use of others. Though there are no such plans by GM or Ford.

    “It appears that the senior management of the automakers simply don’t get it,” said Schatz.

  24. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:49 am

    #11 bklyn hawk: I do not think it will take that long.

    I think by the Spring 2009 selling market, prices will be rapidly falling, with excellent opportunities to buy.

    Even the most delusional sellers are starting to realize the party truly is over.

  25. Barbara says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:54 am

    20. Cindy
    my husband has been yelling at the Sirus all week, expressing your sentiments exactly. I agree with all of it too but need to understand the how and why it all happened like this. IMO, there is a stigma still amongst our reps, both liberal and conservative, that the free market knows best and in some screwed up logic based on that assumption, after approving the money it was hands of the wheels, lest any actions otherwise smack of govt interference. Irrational, sure but I truly believe this is why congress is screwing up royally on the oversight of these bailouts.

  26. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:59 am

    http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2008/11/19/is-bruce-springsteen-leaving-new-jersey-for-florida/

    Oh No!

    “Is Bruce Springsteen Leaving New Jersey for Florida?”

    “Not full time, he still has his home in Rumson, but Bruce Springsteen did buy a 4.6 million dollar home in the equestrian comminity of Wellington in Florida.”

  27. Old Stan says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:01 am

    I was in So. CA a few weeks ago – it looked like asking prices were still at 2005 +- 10% levels. Cindy, do you see much seller capitulation, or is it mostly the banks that are driving prices down?

  28. Sybarite says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:06 am

    Hilarious video dub on Real Estate bubble:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

    Apologies if it’s been posted already.

  29. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:09 am

    Read more closely, Caddie CTS best resale for a lux car. That resale report is already pointless. Most of numbers were derived when gas was 4 bucks a gallon and people were paying brand new price to get a slightly used mini or prius and you could not give away an SUV, today with 1.99 a gallon gas there is no line to buy minis or the prius.

    cooper Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 6:28 am
    Kelly Blue Book is coming out with top 10 best resale autos… surprise surprise not one American made

    WOOWOO for Grim

  30. Rich says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:19 am

    Is the shepherd leading everyone in a different direction.

  31. Victorian says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:23 am

    RE: Taleb and the Black Swan.

    I read the book with high expectations, and unfortunately came away a little bit underwhelmed. Taleb comes off as egotistical and rambles and repeats himself too often. The main point in the book is that we cannot quantify risk in a meaningful fashion and should not trust any contemporary measures of risk and there could be a “black swan” event which would nullify your previous assumptions.
    He says that we should attempt to maximize our exposure to positive black swans and eliminate our exposure to negative ones.

    Translated to determine how your portfolio should look like – 90% in cash-like instruments (Treasuries etc.) and 10% in highly speculative instruments (OTM options). Taleb’s fund is up 50% YTD. I would have thought that it would be much higher given the events of the past year or so.

    I would not call him an ignorant jack@$$ (a degree from Wharton and a highly respected book on dynamic hedging), but yes, I agree that his proposed solutions (?) do not make sense (at least to me).

  32. Rich says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:23 am

    Some positive news to share.

    Ocean City bullish on real estate investment

    Published: Sunday, November 16, 2008

    OCEAN CITY – New Jersey had the eighth-most foreclosures in the nation in October, according to RealtyTrac. The collection-data company reported that foreclosure rates were 75 percent higher this year than last year in the Garden State.
    So why are investors in Ocean City smiling?

    “I can’t say that for everyone, but we are in good spirits. We all have a positive attitude,” said Franklin Williams, president of the Ocean City Board of Realtors.

    The board’s numbers for the first three quarters of 2008 show a marked improvement over the same time last year, indicating more properties were sold on the island and for more money.

    “We’re not nearly as bad as other areas. It’s tough even to lump us in with the rest of Cape May County,” Williams said. “We’re slower to get there and a little quicker to recover.”

    This city sends its tax bills to investors all across the country. It’s not surprising that its real estate market would not follow the national patterns, he said.
    “I won’t say there aren’t some distressed situations. But the majority of property owners have the wherewithal to hang on,” he said.

    Joseph Elliott, Ocean City’s tax assessor, said the board’s numbers match his records for sales. But he prefers the term “stabilizing” to “rebounding.”

    That means the island’s homes are not losing value like they were in the past few years. But they might not be gaining it yet, either.

    “It’s a wonderful position to be in,” Mount Laurel investor and financial planner Vincent Brigandi Jr. said.

    After studying Ocean City’s market for nearly three years, he bought a single-family home off Peck’s Bay in May, hoping to catch the last of the receding market.

    “I will not tell you I’m smart enough to say I got in at the bottom. But I’m comfortable enough to say I’m within 10 percent of the bottom,” he said.

    With a buyer’s market, Brigandi and other investors had more choices and more leverage. He did not feel the same competitive pressure that buyers felt in 2004, when the island’s market was climbing at 3 percent per month. Still, some of his friends were skeptical.

    “I did have some friends tell me that I was crazy,” he said.

    Now those same friends have commandeered his bayside home for a New Year’s Eve party.

    Just how bad did the market get in Ocean City?

    “The people who bought in 2005 at the top of the market are the ones who got hit most,” agent Nicholas Marotta said. “We’ve been to settlements where sellers had to bring money to the table to the tune of $100,000 – just to get out from under. They couldn’t get anywhere near that number.”

    But Marotta said he thinks the market is showing signs of life.

    “I think we’ve hit a bottom. The prices that are being adjusted right now are basically just to get a property sold. It’s still overpriced somewhat,” he said. “We’re better than any resort market by far.”

    And investors are taking note. Upper Township resident Louis Paone and his wife, Dawn, bought an 8th Street condo in September – their first investment property. Like other investors on the island, Paone is very familiar with the resort. He works as a math teacher at the Upper Township Middle School.

    But signing a deed was a nerve-wracking decision.

    “It’s tough. You just wonder, did the market bottom out?” he said. “You always second-guess yourself. We prayed about it and felt that it was the right decision.”

    Paone said he and his wife look toward the horizon, not a short-term flip. And the stock market does not offer any more reassurance.

    “Retirement accounts are taking a beating. Where do you put your money? If you’re investing long-term, the real estate market has the best results, not the sudden fluctuations.”

    They picked Ocean City for a reason, he said.

    “Ocean City seems recession-proof. People keep coming down to the shore regardless of the economy,” he said. “The Chamber of Commerce and the merchants do a good job marketing the events and the city. You can’t always judge Ocean City as a microcosm of the economy.”

    Langhorne, Pa., resident Wendy Carpani and her husband, Dominic, sold a home here in 2003 but waited five years to reinvest in the island. Finally, in May, she bought a tear-down on the 5700 block of Asbury Avenue within strolling distance of Corsons Inlet State Park.

    Carpani said she would love to see the double-digit increases in value the island witnessed five years ago. But she is prepared for a long, happy relationship with her shore investment.

    “We’re in there for the long term,” she said. “I get relaxed when my feet hit that sand. We’re at a point in our lives when we just want to enjoy it.”

  33. nwnj1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:24 am

    Is there anyone who doesn’t think the supertanker “hijacking” is manipulation by someone(GS, OPEC, etc)?

    I find it hard to believe that $100M worth of cargo can’t be adequately defended.

  35. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:34 am

    Old Stan (27)

    The banks here (Central Valley) have FINALLY accepted that they must take $100,0000 haircuts. The foreclosure next door to me had a loan on it of $319,000 (the 2006 high – interest only – flipper loan) and just sold for $179,000.

    Apparently there are different areas in So Cal seeing smaller/larger declines. Check out Dr. Housing Bubble Blog for the latest in CA R/E. I’ll post this then go to the site and post today’s entry.

  36. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:36 am

    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

    This is dtd. 11-17 and is a more general article but check some of his archives – he highlights different areas of So Cal R/E.

  37. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:37 am

    OOpps – #36 was for Old Stan…

  38. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:47 am

    #32 Rich:Article seems to me to be filled with a lot of babble.

  39. Rich says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:57 am

    Article was from the Press of Atlantic City.

    Ocean City bullish on real estate investment

    (Published: Sunday, November 16, 2008

    http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/181/story/317350.html

  41. Ed says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:13 am

    #38 3b: That’s because Ocean City real estate is in the toilet. I actually know a couple of people who bought there during this last year. You know how they financed their down payments? They took the money out of their 401k’s. Nobody’s taking money out of their 401k’s now. Check out Realtytrac. OC real estate will continue to decline and foreclosures will continue to increase.

    People who own homes down the shore are forever optimistic that their investments will actually pay off someday. Come January, the Inquirer will run its obligatory “rent your vacation house now or it’ll be gone” article and some fools will run down there and do it while the rest of us will wait until we’re ready to leave, call around and get a place for a quarter of what the early bookers paid.

    Last summer, I rented a condo in Avalon (with pool) for under $500 for a week. The shore’s still got a long way to fall.

  42. chicagofinance says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:22 am

    This is a real business….click on the two commercials in the upper left….
    http://www.newyorkpizza.nl/

  43. Victorian says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:49 am

    Damn.. This place is dead. Have we reached the bottom in RE?

  44. chicagofinance says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:49 am

    Victorian Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 9:23 am
    RE: Taleb and the Black Swan.
    I would not call him an ignorant jack@$$ (a degree from Wharton and a highly respected book on dynamic hedging), but yes, I agree that his proposed solutions (?) do not make sense (at least to me).

    Vic: ignorant in this sense….he has the unmitigated nerve (to people such as him, anything that is not about him is useless, so there is no limit to the amount of insult he can foist on others) to brand all instruction on portfolio theory and finance faculty flawed and inherently without purpose. He makes these comments as if everyone involved doesn’t already understand the flaws and limitations of these theories and models. Fama already has proven the basis of the CAPM to be weak and further that the APT was required to fill in the gaps. Leptokurtosis was presented in my second finance lecture at Chicago. The weakness in the CAPM and APT were put out there several weeks later. The Black-Scholes was presented, but also the binomial and polynomial trees.

    What I find offensive is the idea that, either directly or indirectly, Taleb is proposing that students should be deprived the opportunity to learn the basic underpinnings of how to think financially, and therefore be empowered to critique the strengths and weaknesses of a very robust set of knowledge.

    To add, I find it very conspicuous that he is at Wharton, because everyone in academia is quite aware that as faculties go (not B-Schools), Chicago Booth far outstrips these guys despite the fact that to the vast majority of people, Wharton is the more well known name. I have generally observed this reality to be the case, because they are on the east coast, and spend more of their time trying to commercialize products versus performing research for the sake of forwarding thought. There has to be some underriding animosity here, as these insults are so thinly veiled.

  45. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:56 am

    339 Ed:Last summer, I rented a condo in Avalon (with pool) for under $500 for a week. The shore’s still got a long way to fall.

    Wow that was a gret deal!!!

    I will have to keep that in mind for next summer, although we are thinking of finally hitting the outer banks next summer as we have never been there.

  46. SIMONfromLYNDHURST says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:57 am

    Is the gsmls.com search not working for anybody else also?

  47. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:03 am

    #41 – It is very quiet…. Did I miss something big in the past week?

  48. Ed says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:06 am

    #43 3b: The trick to getting a great deal at the Jersey shore is to wait until the last minute and not to be spooked by word of mouth or articles telling you not to do that. Three years in a row we’ve rented for less than we paid the year before. Can’t imagine getting a better deal than we got last year though.

  49. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:06 am

    Also, C trading under $8 and looking even more zombie like than usual.
    Too big to fail too big to bail.

  50. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:10 am

    tosh,

    everyone busy staring at CMBX and ABX?

  52. scribe says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:13 am

    From a daily alert I get on media moves:

    The Star-Ledger
    Most of the staff on the Business Desk at The Star-Ledger in Newark, NJ will leave by the end of 2008 as part of a paper-wide buyout. Both Susan Todd, a Reporter who covers airlines and travel, and Joseph Perone, a General Assignment Reporter, are remaining.

  53. make money says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:17 am

    Scribe 50

    I wonder what will happen to whomever is covering the auto industry

  54. Victorian says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:18 am

    Chifi (42)-

    “He makes these comments as if everyone involved doesn’t already understand the flaws and limitations of these theories and models.”

    – Agree 100%. He obviously is a very smart man, but if he could put his ego aside and come up with practical solutions, it would be a much more meaningful contribution to society.

  55. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:19 am

    #46 Ed; Thanks Ed I will keep it in mind, if we decide to stay local next year. Did you use a realtor?

  56. make money says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:19 am

    Anyone check out SKF this morning? up $20 and over $200.

    Clot you stil have this baby or your’re ancipating another round of pump and dump.

  57. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:29 am

    Chinese Automakers may buy GM and Chrysler

    Chinese carmakers SAIC and Dongfeng have plans to acquire GM and Chrysler, China’s 21st Century Business Herald reports today… The paper cites a senior official of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology– the state regulator of China’s auto industry– who dropped the hint that “the auto manufacturing giants in China, such as Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, have the capability and intention to buy some assets of the two crisis-plagued American automakers.” These hints are very often followed with quick action in the Middle Kingdom. The hints were dropped just a few days after the same Chinese government gave its auto makers the go-ahead to invest abroad.

    http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2008/11/chinese-automakers-may-buy-gm-and-chrysler/

  58. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:29 am

    RE: Jersey Shore rentals.

    For the first time in three years, we are not prebooking our July 4th weekly rental at LBI. Last year, we could have booked right up to the day before and I’m sure it would have been at a significantly discounted rate.

    The owners of the Clam (our LBI rental) have actually raised their rates by about 15% for two years in a row. This will be the Summer that they will be punished for their greed. It’s really a shame as this place truly represented a wonderful value when we found it three years ago.

  59. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:30 am

    SRS is too the moon. I guess I”m gonna have to wait for the next shuttle launch.

  60. Hard Place says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:31 am

    http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/how-about-a-little-wine-with-that-condo

    I found this article mind-boggling. It’s not that I’m having an epiphany, just absolutely astonished how much RE developers and sellers are in total denial. Here we are in the midst of a financial nuclear storm with the fallout from layoffs happening daily. For some reason this developer thinks offering another perk will allow him to sell another condo. Wake up!!! The dream land RE market of two years ago is over. Have a strong cup of coffee and wash it down with a stiff bourbon, we’re in for a long deep recessionary winter.

  61. pricedOut says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:32 am

    The problem is on GSMLS side. Server Error…

    #44 SIMONfromLYNDHURST Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 10:57 am

    Is the gsmls.com search not working for anybody else also?

  62. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:34 am

    “Is the gsmls.com search not working for anybody else also?”

    Perhaps the server just noticed the CMBX graphs?

  63. RayC says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:35 am

    GSMLS hasn’t worked properly all day for me.

  64. Joey says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:38 am

    October CPI, housing starts, and building permits, since nobody else posted the info:
    CPI: -1.0% vs -0.8% expected
    Core CPI: -0.1% vs 0.1% expected
    Housing Starts: 791k vs 780k expected
    Building Permits: 708k vs 772k expected

    Welcome to deflation.

  65. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:41 am

    791,000 housing start permits. This is mind boggling.

  67. RU says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:49 am

    I was listening to the radio the other morning and they were playing clips from a Fox News broadcast of Peter Schiff in 2006 and 2007. Schiff predicted the housing bubble and the fallout on Wall St. I actually watched some of the clips last nite on Youtube. It was funny how some of the people were calling him silly and declared that the economy would turn around in 2007. At the end of one show on Fox News they ask the panel for recommendations of stocks to buy. One guy actually recommended Washington Mutual. Amazing how people stick their head in the sand.

  68. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:52 am

    #58 hardplace: Agreed. The level of denial is mind boggling, which to me is a sign of fear,and financial fragility on the part of the homeseller/consumer in general.

    During the last severe recession fot he early 90’s, people IMO were much more realistc/resigned to the recession at that time.

    I believe much of that can be explaiend by the fact that consumers were in far less debt back than, as opposed to this time around.

  69. Anon E. Moose says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:57 am

    RE: Grim’s Realtor Card

    I don’t think its disturbing, actually its prescient. Information is power, and why not work the system from the inside? I’ve recently applied for and received my NY RE Broker certification (exams waived for admitted attorneys). Ability to access true MLS data and to demand fee splits are more than worth the price of registration.

  70. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:58 am

    Wasn’t an article posted a day or two ago about how all these people predicted the housing bubble?

    Someone did some research and determined that there were many many people, including reporters that noted the existence of a housing bubble. I wouldn’t put Schiff as being the first to call housing bubble foul.

    I agree with 3b though, there is still a lot of denial going around even after 2 years of declines.

  71. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:01 pm

    I wouldn’t hire myself to be my own RE agent. I am intentionally bad at navigating the RE market so that I can focus on other things.

    If your line of work drew parallels to being a RE broker/agent then I can definitely see the benefit, otherwise get professional help.

  72. scribe says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:02 pm

    Make,

    Here’s the full list of those leaving.

    No mention of an auto reporter.

    Those leaving The Star-Ledger are:

    -Paula Paige, the Sunday Business Editor who took the buyout and was scheduled to depart November 12th, will now stay until the end of the year as Acting Business Editor.

    -Sam Ali, Real Estate and Finance Reporter

    -Judy DeHaven, the Casino Reporter

    -Tom Johnson, Energy Reporter

    -George Jordan, Pharmaceutical Reporter

    -Jeff May, Pharmaceutical Reporter

    -Greg Saitz, General Assignment Reporter

    -Ian Shearn, Commercial Real Estate Reporter

    -Edward Silverman, Drug Blog Pharmalot Writer

    -Eric Strauss, Deputy Business Editor, has already left and has taken a job at Centenary College in N.J.

  73. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:03 pm

    Oil for December delivery is 53.90$

  74. SIMONfromLYNDHURST says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:05 pm

    I’ve been watching the senate hearings on the automakers as well as the hearing on foreclosures and the housing market. it’s amazing how politicians do not attack the problem head on. On the housing/foreclosure side of things, they keep talking about finding a floor for home prices. don’t they realize that a floor will be found once homes become affordable again? As for the autos, the president of the UAW was testifying and talking about how much less new hires are making now versus the past. Why don’t they tell the guys who make $90/hour installing tires that they’re going to get a 50% paycut? isn’t it better to have a job than to not have a job? why don’t the senators go after the ridiculous Union contracts these workers are on?

  76. HEHEHE says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:10 pm

    Indices hitting new 52 week intraday lows.

  77. galgon says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:12 pm

    NJ Unemployment numbers rise by 0.2 to 6.0…

    TRENTON, November 19, 2008 – Employment losses rose in October as New Jersey employers cut 6,000 jobs from their payrolls — the third consecutive monthly loss. The state’s unemployment rate also edged higher by 0.2 percent to 6.0 percent. The October rate is the highest monthly statewide rate since July of 2003. In comparison, the national unemployment rate for October rose to 6.5 percent, a 14-year high.

    http://lwd.state.nj.us/labor/lwdhome/press/2008/approved/111908_UI_press_release.html

  78. HEHEHE says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:13 pm

    That was supposed to have a ?

  79. RU says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    #68 Wasn’t saying he was the first. I have no clue who was the first. Just found it amazing that the other financial “experts” couldn’t see that people were extending themselves too much financially to support their lavish lifestyle. They were calling him crazy. I myself couldn’t understand how people who were making less than me were affording the lavish lifestyle in which they lived. I now know b/c it’s the same people who paid for it with credit cards and HELOC’s and now must sell but can’t b/c their house isn’t worth as much.

  80. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:33 pm

    i have been hearing suggestions that pres O will bailout the auto makers as a proxy bailout of the UAW who heavily supported him. UAW calling in their chips?

  81. BB says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:37 pm

    You have got to be kidding me…..

    Governors seek aid for Wall Street workers
    by The Associated Press Wednesday November 19, 2008, 12:18 PM
    HARTFORD, Conn. – The governors of Connecticut, New York and New Jersey are asking the federal government for a $48 million emergency grant to help thousands of financial industry workers who are losing their jobs.

    Connecticut Gov. M. Jodi Rell said today that she, New York Gov. David Paterson and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine have sent a letter to U.S. Labor Secretary Elaine Chao urging her to approve the grant.

    The governors say preliminary estimates show that 82,000 financial services jobs in the New York City metropolitan area will be lost by the end of next year because of the worldwide economic downturn.

    The governors say the emergency grant would allow the states to give each laid-off worker $12,500 to help them find jobs and relocate, and provide them with other services.

  82. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:37 pm

    GS is 59! Citi has pref stock yielding 16%, way cool. GS is a buy at 30.

  83. HEHEHE says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    BB,

    I agree it’s ridiculous but the sad thing is that many of those Wall Street jobs are gone and not coming back, ever.

  84. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:41 pm

    Everyone seems concerned about the 100 million $ oil tanker seized by somali pirated recently. but can we get a few frigates in DC so we can address the trillion dollar pirates led by Capt hank… ARRRGG

  85. hughesrep says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:42 pm

    72

    I think to some degree both issues are related, especially in Midwest states like OH, IN, MI(sucks), IL, etc.

    The only thing keeping Midwestern middle class homes from hitting the foreclosure process are decent paying jobs directly or indirectly attached to manufacturing. Growing up, everyone of my buddies whose parents worked at Ford, GM, or a subsidiary had a deecent house, two new cars, and a boat.

    You also don’t get elected in those states by attacking the unions. It’s kind of like NJ in that regard.

  86. BC Bob says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    “GS is a buy at 30.”

    John,

    Thanks for that tidbit.

    You are the consummate analyst. A buy recommendation more than 80% off its high? Gutsy call, no? You must be in the wrong field. Too bad you didn’t call a $30 price target when is was trading at $230.

  87. RayC says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:55 pm

    The only people who were calling a housing bubble 3 years ago were on this blog, (or that one). The article that listed all the statistics about how many times “real estate bubble” appeared in print 2-3 years ago is lazy reporting. If they bothered to read the articles (sounds like work) they would have noticed that most of the time the term appeared under the headline, “is there one?” And then they would go on to quote NAR press releases about why there was no bubble.

  88. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    #85 Ray C: Exactly. Any one that suggested a bubble was scorned, even our departed dear Fed Chairman Greenspan pooh-poohed the notion of a bubble.

    At the end of the day all it took was common sense to realize there was indeed a bubble.

  89. BC Bob says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:03 pm

    3b [86],

    Yeah, don’t remember too many talking heads calling a bubble. When I first found this site, towards the end of 2005, I staed minimum 30-40% off peak. Even the bears thought I was delusional. Especially that guy Clot.

  90. BC Bob says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:04 pm

    stated.

  91. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:10 pm

    Someone suggested that we start taxing churches to raise the funds necessary to fill the budget gap.

  92. Barbara says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    I just remember a lot of “don’t buy the house outright, mortgage it and INVEST the money.”
    People made you feel like a depression era granny when you told them you were saving for a large DP.

  93. galgon says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    I just found out today my company is actually moving our office (about 200 people) from Bethlehem, PA to Western NJ. You don’t hear about companies moving INTO New Jersey too often.

  94. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:14 pm

    #87 BC BoB:I staed minimum 30-40% off peak.

    And the wya things are going 30-40% IS the minimum!!

  95. twice shy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:20 pm

    Harper’s Magazine, May 2006 cover story by Michael Hudson:

    “The New Road to Serfdom–An Illustrated Guide to the Coming Real Estate Collapse”

    Very prescient. Pretty much nailed the whole ugly scenario. He must have done his research here.

  96. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:39 pm

    Galgon (91):

    “You don’t hear about companies moving INTO New Jersey too often.”

    Is your company in the foreclosure servicing or credit counseling arena?

  97. ben says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:40 pm

    “The only people who were calling a housing bubble 3 years ago were on this blog, (or that one).”

    In 2003, my mom told me that the house down the block sold for 730k. I told her that was insane. She said that a lady listed her house for 1.1 million about 6 months later. I told her, if she sells for that much, you better sell, cuz these houses aren’t worth that much. I had no knowledge of the housing market and was able to identify an overpriced asset. All it took was common sense.

  98. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:41 pm

    I did not come up with that, an actual GS employee said that is what they think will be the bottom for GS before it recovers.

    BC Bob Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
    “GS is a buy at 30.”

    John,

    Thanks for that tidbit.

  99. Confused In NJ says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    Chinese Automakers may buy GM and Chrysler.

    Interesting, the Army will now get military vehicles, like tanks, from China. If that is the case, outsource the military to China. Congress doesn’t realize the Big 3 also have a Defense Role. We have some Sick Puppys running this Country into the ground.

  100. bklynhawk says:
    November 19, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    Clotpoll, KL, RE folks-

    Another RE question, if a property is in a short sale and attorney review, will the bank look at more than one offer? Or, does it depend on what’s brought them to the attorney review stage?

  101. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:00 pm

    Lets just let the big three go bankrupt and why not boeing. Once China has all are trucks, tanks and plane making capability all they need to do is to build the gas chambers for us.

  103. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:09 pm

    Cindy (20)-

    I told you from the git-go: expectations of competence from our gubmint are always shattered by the delivery of predictable incompetence.

    Ready to start building your cache yet?

    “I was for the bailout but expected a pragmatic, transparent program with intellegent people running it who had the taxpayer’s interests in mind AND I really believed they would put a workable mortgage facility in place and immediately address the CDS problem.”

  104. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    3b (24)-

    Right you are. Should be a 5-alarm fire by March. This thing is moving fast now.

  105. make money says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:14 pm

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Federal Reserve policymakers now expect the U.S. economy to contract for as much as a year, with the risk that the slowdown could persist for even longer, according to edited minutes of a closed-door meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Oct. 28 and 29.

  106. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2008/11/18/median-price-check-what-does-a-200500-house-look-like/

    Interesting article about what the average priced home looks like.

    Well FOMC call recession to at least Late Summer 2009 and Bank of Tokyo called it last month as spring 2010. Either way home builders and car makes on the edge that is a long long way away. Home prices don’t turn on a dime so we are talking spring 2011 before home prices bottomed and start to slowly rise. How many bubble buying two income families where one loses a job or both lose a job can last with 18 months unemployment with a 4K mortgage and two leased cars in the driveway and a nanny? Anyone who works in an at risk industry should have enough in the bank to last them to at least the Fall of 2009. But most people were swinging for the fences all in stock and RE while taking out debt.

  107. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:17 pm

    tosh (47)-

    Nice, juicy dinner for all the vultures circling it. These guys will get the kill shot way before my March ’09 call:

    “Also, C trading under $8 and looking even more zombie like than usual.
    Too big to fail too big to bail.”

  108. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:19 pm

    make (54)-

    As BC has eloquently said, when the lows are broached, the old low becomes the new ceiling.

    I’m not doing anything more than a roulette spin or two until Dow/S&P crash under their support lines without triggering a rebound rally.

  109. Al says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:21 pm

    unemployment with a 4K mortgage and two leased cars in the driveway and a nanny? Anyone who works in an at risk industry should have enough in the bank to last them to at least the Fall of 2009. But most people were swinging for the fences all in stock and RE while taking out debt.

    1. Please name not at-risk industry (legal one)… OK I got few – High ranking goverment official, politician, and NJ school administrators, and Big company CEOs…

    2. I have enough to last me untill 2010. but not with NJ cost of living: lost job – automatic moving out of state. I can lower my rent by 1000$/month by moving out of NJ.

  110. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:22 pm

    I think our tanks are made by Northrup Grumman. The engines are made by General Electric.

    I think that at one point in dubya dubya two that the automotive industry was retooled to make millions of crappy american tanks but to my knowledge they don’t anymore.

    Eitherway many of the parts for our tanks are sourced from many different places.

  111. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:23 pm

    C pref stock hitting 16%, back in early Spring those damm Pref stock were issued with an 8% yield.

    Even worse the few people I know who are getting bonuses, very few, who want to trade up, even fewer, are throwing their whole bonus towards their mortagage. All said don’t want to risk it in stocks or bonds and CD rates are too low. All said housing bottom is over two years away and when they jump they may not be able to sell current home so if they knock off the mortgage they don’t have to worry about two mortgages at once. Plus if their gravy train ends having a paid off house is a good safety net. Fence sitting people waiting for the bottom with good credit and cash refusing to buy is not a good sign for stocks, bonds or housing. It is the deleveraging effect. People are now getting rid of existing loans first before they commit to investments in stocks or real estate. This is 100% opposite what people like that did 36 months ago.

  112. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:25 pm

    #104 John:before home prices bottomed and start to slowly rise.

    No. Once they bottom, then they stay flat for years, just like after the burst of the last housing bubble. ( I lived through the last one,and I rememebr it well).

    No reason to think it will be any different this time excpet for the fact that it will be worse.

  113. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:26 pm

    John (80)-

    How cool will it be when all those C pf-holders get wiped out within 90 days?

    “Citi has pref stock yielding 16%, way cool.”

    For someone as admittedly risk-averse as you, your compass appears to have been exposed to a very powerful magnet.

  114. Victorian says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:27 pm

    Is Kimco the next GGP?
    Down 24% today.

  115. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    hawk (98)-

    The bank, technically, is probably not considering anything, since the property is still in attorney review. Normally, they don’t make any decisions until the contract becomes binding…which happens at the end of attorney review.

    If you offer a better, tighter deal, the seller should prefer yours to the other one, as the quality of your offer will also offer more to the lender. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a higher price; you could also have fewer contingencies, a higher DP, etc.

    The important thing to do at this point is make sure whoever is presenting your offer gets FACE-TO-FACE with the seller and works it hard. You probably have a limited amount of time to put your best foot forward.

  116. bklynhawk says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:38 pm

    Clot-
    thank you…

  117. galgon says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:42 pm

    stu 94:

    Nope a chemicals company. We are moving our call center and centralized logistics/distribution functions. Ran out of space at our current home.

  118. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    galg (155)-

    Do you know how to make C4?

  119. Ed says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    3b: We haven’t used a realtor for renting down the shore. When we’re interested in renting a condo, we call the front desk at the condo place (for Avalon that means the Windrift or Beachcombers). If we’re renting a house, we do it directly from a homeowner advertising either online or in a smaller paper, like the Philly Catholic Standard and Times. I have heard the realtors will cut the price as well, I just always prefer to cut out as many middlemen as possible.

  120. JBJB says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:47 pm

    Al [107]

    Reminds me of a scene from a certain NJ-based series:

    Tony Soprano: Sil, break it down for ’em. What two businesses have traditionally been recession proof since time immemorial?

    Silvio Dante: Certain aspects o’ show business, and our thing.

  121. 3b says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    #117 Ed; Thanks for the info.

  122. All Hype says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:56 pm

    1 hour till the market opens.

  123. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 2:59 pm

    Seems like they are having a hard time selling scrap material, I wonder what that is going to do to the commodities markets?

    Recycled waste could be stored on MoD bases
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/16/recycling-waste-military

    Mark Townsend, The Guardian
    Huge waste mountains could be sited on military bases under emergency plans to protect Britain’s recycling revolution from the economic downturn.

    Local authorities have requested government permission to site rubbish dumps on Ministry of Defence land in order to stockpile growing amounts of recyclable waste for which there is no use and no market.

    Under the proposals, thousands of tonnes of cars, tin cans, plastic bottles and glass will be temporarily stored on military-owned land because the financial crisis has induced a slump in demand for recycled raw materials from manufacturers. With landfill sites almost full, thousands of tonnes of paper, plastic and steel are piling up because councils can no longer find buyers.

    Councils say they will apply for permission to store recycled paper and cardboard inside derelict factories or abandoned airfield hangars…
    (16 November 2008)

  124. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    I love the smell of a rate cut in the morning.

    I am tempted by the C pref stock at 16% but I am on the sidelines. Had a meeting last night with some C level people on the buy side and basically order flow is dead from anyone who beat the market in 2008. They somehow managed to make enough to qualify for a bonus and in this market they don’t want to risk it in the last eight weeks. That leaves the losers adjusting positions trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat, people harvesting tax losses and hedgies managing redemptions. More sellers than buyers. All of them moved to the side. Me included. But with treasries at zero percent and muni yields slowly coming back to earth cash is building up on the side lines so January will be good, but this is going to be a long drawn out recessions so by the time they are done washing the dishes from the inauguration ball any gains in 2009 will be done and we will be in for a rough year.

  125. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:02 pm

    BYW the Auto Industy is the largest US Purchaser of metal commodities, Plat, steel, alum, cooper etc. Look out below in commodities if they go under.

  126. Zack says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:13 pm

    The PPT is back in action after 3PM. With C down 18% and GS breaking the 6 handle, its a surprise that the Dow is not down 500 points. The PPT is desperately trying to keep the Dow from closing below 8K, an important psychological barrier.

  127. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:23 pm

    What is PTT, there are too many acronyms that take those three letters for me to be able to divine it.

  128. galgon says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:25 pm

    116 Clot:

    Nope. I know how to ship hazardous materials not make them. We dont do explosives, unless you consider Hydrogen an explosive.

  129. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:25 pm

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/27719011?

    Financial Crisis Tab Already In The Trillions

    Given the speed at which the federal government is throwing money at the financial crisis, the average taxpayer, never mind member of Congress, might not be faulted for losing track. CNBC, however, has been paying very close attention and keeping a running tally of actual spending as well as the commitments involved.

    Try $4.28 trillion dollars. That’s $4,284,500,000,000 and more than what was spent on WW II, if adjusted for inflation, based on our computations from a variety of estimates and sources*. Not only is it a astronomical amount of money, its’ a complicated cocktail of budgeted dollars, actual spending, guarantees, loans, swaps and other market mechanisms by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and other offices of government taken over roughly the last year, based on government data and news releases.

  130. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:25 pm

    Plunge protection team Nicholas. This group was founded by Lipton to ensure that the coffee lobby does not get any competitive advantage over the tea lobby.

  131. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    30 ‘leading edge’ indicators of why we’ll be in Great Depression 2 by 2011

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/well-great-depression-2-2011/story.aspx?guid=%7BB28B49B5%2DEFD1%2D4941%2DB57E%2DA2BA1545BA09%7D&dist=TNMostRead

    1. America’s credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA
    2. Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new “shadow banking system”
    3. Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson’s Wall Street Trojan Horse
    4. King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
    5. Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year
    6. AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers
    7. American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money
    8. Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
    9. State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
    10. State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
    11. Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
    12. Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
    13. Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
    14. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
    15. Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
    16. Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
    17. Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
    18. Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
    19. Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
    20. Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
    21. Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930’s photos of soup lines
    22. Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
    23. China sees GDP growth drop, creates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
    24. Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
    25. The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
    26. Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
    27. New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
    28. Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
    29. The “antitaxes” message is a new bubble, a new version of the American dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises

    “leading indicator” No. 30:

    At a recent Reuters Global Finance Summit former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead was interviewed. He was also Ronald Reagan’s Deputy Secretary of State and a former chairman of the N.Y. Fed. He says America’s problems will take years and will burn trillions. He sees “nothing but large increases in the deficit … I think it would be worse than the depression. … Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody’s and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds.” It’ll get worse because “the public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs, all very costly and all done by the government.”

  132. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:28 pm

    Citi is under 7.

  133. the crazy man in the corner says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:30 pm

    Nicholas (108) –

    Abrams are made by General Dynamics, designed by Chrysler, and the turbines are made by Honeywell..

    Northrup doesn’t make land assets, mostly Naval and Air assets, along with being one of the major suppliers of C4I

  134. Victorian says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:32 pm

    What is the technical support level for the S&P? Has it been breached?

  135. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:35 pm

    Its a party…..

    Facing a Slowdown, China’s Auto Industry Presses for a Bailout From Beijing

    Do Chinese automakers need a bailout? China’s car industry is quietly pressing Beijing for government help as it copes with a jarring slowdown, top Chinese auto executives said in interviews here on Tuesday. This autumn, after six years of 20 percent or more annual growth, vehicle sales were flat or slightly negative, a shock to an industry that has borrowed heavily to build ever more factories for a market that had once seemed insatiable.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/business/worldbusiness/19chinaauto.html?_r=1&ref=business&pagewanted=all

  136. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:36 pm

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/27719011?

    Financial Crisis Tab Already In The Trillions

    Given the speed at which the federal government is throwing money at the financial crisis, the average taxpayer, never mind member of Congress, might not be faulted for losing track. CNBC, however, has been paying very close attention and keeping a running tally of actual spending as well as the commitments involved.

    Try $4.28 trillion dollars. That’s $4,284,500,000,000 and more than what was spent on WW II, if adjusted for inflation, based on our computations from a variety of estimates and sources*. Not only is it a astronomical amount of money, its’ a complicated c0cktail of budgeted dollars, actual spending, guarantees, loans, swaps and other market mechanisms by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and other offices of government taken over roughly the last year, based on government data and news releases.

  137. the crazy man in the corner says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:38 pm

    vic (131) –

    the 200-MA?

  138. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:40 pm

    Victorian,

    There is no such thing as a technical support level. Trust me.

  139. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:43 pm

    50% of US primary care doctors plan to quit or cut back

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AH1CE20081118

  140. Victorian says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:44 pm

    SRS is in orbit! Almost pulled the trigger @135. Too bad.

  141. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:44 pm

    Vic it just breached its 5-year low. In this case you must start really extending your timelines. When your support levels start stretching to decades and centuries, then you realize how small your sample becomes and how useless TA is in this (or almost any) kind of market.

    And the ^vix is back to 73. Can’t tell you how many people I heard say the Vix would not approach 80 again.

    I’m gonna continue watching from the sidelines for a while.

  142. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:45 pm

    Victorian,

    I had a rather large buy in place at 105. Got to 107 and change. I missed this train this time, but not complaining one bit.

  143. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:46 pm

    Clot,

    I’m assuming your market will stay closed again today?

  144. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:47 pm

    crazy,

    Thanks for the clarification on the issue of who makes American Tanks.

    I knew enough to rebut the claim that American tanks would be made overseas but not enough to send it home.

    I’m sure that General Dynamics will hire the entire design team if necessary.

  145. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:50 pm

    stu (140)-

    Assuredly. Plenty of chances for do-overs in the coming days. The PPT has one more bomb left in ’em, and they’ll use it.

  146. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:50 pm

    Where is your precious PPT now?

  147. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:51 pm

    Nick (142)-

    Off the beach, at their battle stations.

    No more Red Stripes. Only a heaping plate of stress for lunch these days.

  148. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    Looks like they’re in an all-out push to close the Dow above 8K.

  149. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    I agree Clot. I agree.

  150. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:52 pm

    I know this is a million dollar question but do you have any thoughts on when to move back from a cash position to stocks again?

  151. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:54 pm

    You think that there is someone out there with a CDS that essentially says if the DJIA drops lower then 8000 I will pay you XXX amount of dollars?

    What a crotch punch that would be.

  152. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:55 pm

    Nick (147)-

    Once the rubble stops smoldering.

  153. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:55 pm

    You think that there is someone out there with a CDS that essentially says if the DJIA drops lower then 8000 I will pay you XXX amount of dollars?

    What a crotch punch that would turn out to be.

  154. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:55 pm

    Nick-

    I think there are people who will give you odds on whether the sun comes up tomorrow.

  155. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:56 pm

    woopse double post

  156. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:57 pm

    Touched 7999…sheesh

  157. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:58 pm

    I have already started averaging in long on my 401K. Will add another 20% at 7500 on the DJIA. There are only two ways we can go from here. Either to heaven or to hell. I’m optimistic.

  158. Stu says:
    November 19, 2008 at 3:59 pm

    Ring the bell, Ring the bell ;)

  159. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:00 pm

    Thanks Stu,

    Your probably going ot have to pull out your checkbook tomorrow though. Looks like 7500 is only 1 day away.

    I heard a couple of estimates a while back that 6000 was the floor for the DOW. What industries are you looking at to go long on?

  160. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:04 pm

    Hasn’t been this low since 2003.

    I’m not buying in until 2000 prices!!

  161. Zack says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:06 pm

    As per my earlier post at 3 PM, I was surprised to see Dow down 170 points when C and GS were dropping like a rock. An hour later, Dow drops 420 points. AS goes C and GS, so goes the market..

  162. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:08 pm

    Stu (154)-

    Fat lady not even warming up yet. Keep that powder dry.

    The stuff I’ve started to see and hear from clients, businesspeople and friends is blowing my mind. My little corner of the world is awfully prosaic- but as a proxy for sentiment and public expectation, we’re at the center of the target.

    It is not pretty. Not pretty at all. The real pain is only now commencing.

  163. John says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:11 pm

    GM fell 10% today and C fell 20%, who is going bankrupt again?

  164. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:12 pm

    You would think that with the inflated housing market that stocks would naturally fall in line with overpricing.

    “Mortgage to the hilt and invest in the stock market” mantra comes to mind when I create this theory.

    If your looking for a correction in the housing market, you are also asking for a similar correction in the stock market.

    Are we waiting for 2000 prices in the stock market now also?

  165. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:17 pm

    GM is paying for an advertising campaign to win the hearts of America.

    The last thing I could think of to help me open my wallet is to see you SPEND money on advertising asking for money.

    I’m calling the Short Bus patrol on this one.

  166. Doyle says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    #162

    Nick,

    That $ is already spent, they can just allocate it out to win the hearts of America. Instead of running the same old spots that aren’t getting any cars sold.

  167. Sean says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    Does anyone in Corporate America now have options that are worth anything?

  168. Zack says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    When you are dealing with insolvent financial companies, their stock prices are effectively Zero. The Fed has to rebuild the balance sheets of pretty much every financial company and other companies that have leveraged against these derivatives (ie PRU,HIG etc) Unless that happens, which takes a while, we are going to see newer lows until capitulation occurs. God only know when that will happen. If you listened to Hank yesterday, he said that the risk of major financial company going belly up has been significantly reduced. A day later C loses 25% of value and enters the zombie zone. What a disaster! All the CEO’s from the past 5 years have to rounded up and all their bonuses have to taken away for causing this financial terrorism.

  169. Hobocondo says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    GM should have done that long ago.

  170. Mitchell says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:31 pm

    How’s the Clotpoll penny stock pump and dump scam going? Buy gold he meant rims and a grill cause he’s a pimp.

    Or is he just posting moronic expressions today because he thinks it makes him sound important?

  171. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:33 pm

    They could sell the advertising slot back.

  172. Doyle says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:34 pm

    Not if it’s National, that money is already spent. They can option out of a certain amount in 1-3Q, but they’re commitments are firm in 4Q.

    They own it.

  173. Doyle says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:35 pm

    That should be “their commitments”.

  174. Sean says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:43 pm

    If I’d Just Listened to My Last Wife, This Could Have Been Me!

    http://americandigest.org/mt-archives/nota_bene/rats_if_id_just.php

  175. Outofstater says:
    November 19, 2008 at 4:51 pm

    Local Chevy dealer that went broke about two months ago STILL has all of its inventory sitting on the lot. So GM couldn’t round it up and do SOMETHING with it? There must be at least fifty brand new cars just sitting there. Saw some of the hearing today. Those guys are morons, every last one of them and totally (insert Jersey epithet ending in ing here) tone deaf. Three corporate jets to DC to beg for money. Ya gotta love their chutzpah. Like murdering their parents and then throwing themselves upon the mercy of the court because they are orphans. Un (Jersey epithet) believable!

  176. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:00 pm

    They could approach another company and offer to put their advertisement in place of theirs.

    I’m just saying, put the advertising space to good use.

  177. HEHEHE says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:00 pm

    Sold my SDS at 110. Hoping for another suckers rally to load up on again. Though I don’t know what could possibly be the impetus for one.

  178. Confused In NJ says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:01 pm

    50% of US primary care doctors plan to quit or cut back.

    Interesting that they complain about seeing “Too Many Patients”, when they created 75% of the Patients with their Fake Cholesterol Disease. If the Doctors went back to treating the Actual Sick, they wouldn’t be overworked.

  179. Doyle says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:03 pm

    #172

    That’s not how it works, but okay.

  180. skep-tic says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:04 pm

    well, there were a ton of open houses in my area this past weekend so I decided to stop in on a couple.

    one was a nice cape that had been on the market for 2 months. realtor said the owners wanted to move to a bigger house in the neighborhood. timing seemed odd to me– if this was your goal, why would you list in mid-Sept? asking price was about 15% above the price they paid in 2004 (again, confusing to me why you would sell a house after less than 4 full years in it). Told the realtor in a nice way that we thought it was worth 2004 price max, and probably even less. She was indifferent and more concerned about trying to show us other places.

    Second place we went to had been marked down 20% from its original asking price. Place was empty and had a renovation project that was abandoned midway through. Realtor said she didn’t know what the story was (so why was she there?). She said sellers were offering to pay closing costs and also said that we could have it for 10% below current ask tomorrow. Funny how she knew certain details but not others. She also said she had about 30 houses in preforeclosure she could show us (this is in a rich town in CT). The tide is definitely headed out quickly…

  181. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:04 pm

    Doctors need another medical bubble to replace the one lost when “Cholesterol Disease” popped?

  182. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:06 pm

    #177 – They could jump the aisle and become psychiatrists/psychologists and medicate the crap out of people for not feeling “normal”.
    Tons-o-money there.

    Also, did you know there are wild parrots in Stamford?

  183. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:07 pm

    skep,

    All the details she knew were provided in the secret database maintained by RE agents.

    The one that we don’t know about.

  184. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:08 pm

    Tosh,

    I heard someone say that therapy and antidepressants were going to be big gainers if this recession turns into a depression.

  185. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:09 pm

    Mitchell (167)-

    What am I pumping? Haven’t been long anything in a year.

    Gold? Only in the physical, not the paper. Waiting for the paper to collapse.

    Are you sure you’re reading today’s posts? Are you sure you’ve been reading this blog?

  186. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:11 pm

    HE (173)-

    According to Mitchell, the impetus might be me:

    “Sold my SDS at 110. Hoping for another suckers rally to load up on again. Though I don’t know what could possibly be the impetus for one.”

    Imagine how sharp Mitchell will be once he’s watched 41 Charlotte Bobcats games. That’s the NBA version of a coat-hanger lobotomy.

    I predict Mitchell will start a “hire Isiah” chant in Charlotte before the All-Star break.

  187. Mitchell says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:12 pm

    #159 Clotpoll
    Fat lady not even warming up yet. Keep that powder dry.

    Foreplay tips for your wife?

  188. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:13 pm

    Nick (180)-

    If the economy is truly deflating, it’ll be hard liquor, not pills.

  189. BC Bob says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:14 pm

    Clot [181],

    The gold market has gone into backwardation?

  190. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:15 pm

    Mitchell (183)-

    More like instructions for the folks who will have to demolish your neighborhood, once it’s abandoned.

  191. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:15 pm

    What’s in a term? Contango, backwardation…let’s call the whole thing off.

  192. Mitchell says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:17 pm

    #186 LOL your such a loser.

  193. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:17 pm

    #184 – I’m not sure; Oxy, Klonopin & Ritalin are all the rage right now.

  194. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:20 pm

    Mitchell, go catch dinner at your local Outback before they shut it down.

    BTW, don’t choke on those onions they hack open and throw in a fryolater.

  195. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:20 pm

    tosh (189)-

    Those are for college kids who need to pull all-nighters.

  196. skep-tic says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:21 pm

    I think I would go with Sonny’s instead of Outback

  197. skep-tic says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:23 pm

    I am now expecting Clot to drop some bbq snobbery

  198. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:25 pm

    #191 – Clot – Only if you’re taking them as directed. Oxy, for example, is essentially synthetic heroin with a time release coating. Crush it up and it hits all at once.
    Similar results can be had with Ritalin which is an amphetamine.
    This country only cares about drugs when you buy them from the wrong people.

  199. Al says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:28 pm

    Regarding USA Physitians:

    It is funny how everybody in this country thinks that they are entitled to short hours, relaxing nice job enviroment and Huge salary….

    Whar are thouse doctors other option for employment?? what skill do they have for which they would get higher pay..

    Another statement which makes me barf by now – “Our fuield is somewhat recession proof”
    Everybody is saying this:
    hairdressers, waiters, plumbers, teachers, consulting workers, liquior store owners, Phsycologists – everybody is recession proof but Finance in NYC, Construction workers in USA, and Big 3 autopmakers.

    But Wait, Finance industry and big 3 will get bail out so they are immune as well!!!

  200. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:33 pm

    skep (193)-

    NC BBQ is ok…if you like that soupy, vinegary thing.

  201. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:36 pm

    http://www.portfolio.com/careers/features/2008/11/13/How-To-Avoid-Getting-Conned

    This article instructs you how not to get conned by lying CEOs.

  202. Nicholas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:38 pm

    At the end of that article, “It’s a sad thing to say, but lying is a recession-proof business.”

  203. skep-tic says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:42 pm

    “NC BBQ is ok…if you like that soupy, vinegary thing.”

    yes, and I like the mustard angle as well. may just be because it is harder to come by outside the region than other bbq styles

  204. BC Bob says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:47 pm

    “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.” Thomas Jefferson 1802

  205. njrebear says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:49 pm

    Who will start a blog on NJ survival?

  206. Shore Guy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 5:52 pm

    At an airport and cant read all other posts. Is the Dow now lower than when Bush took over?

  207. Steve says:
    November 19, 2008 at 6:40 pm

    Another simply brutal day.

    Meetings/conference calls all day… by the time I checked mkts couldn’t believe my eyes SKF/FAZ. Talk about a blowout.

    CMBS, GM, pick your poison. Lots to go around. Every time I go flat (two days ago), I get smacked with a reminder, being short at the casino is almost safer.

    Nowadays, I measure any gains not in dollars… but in months of future rent. I guess it’s better than cans of soup.

  208. Steve says:
    November 19, 2008 at 6:45 pm

    What are the odds…Jamie will be getting C for free, with a nice Fed backstop?

  209. BC Bob says:
    November 19, 2008 at 6:59 pm

    Steve[204],

    How about a symbolic $2.00? And, of course, with a backstop.

  210. BC Bob says:
    November 19, 2008 at 7:45 pm

    Lend? Lend to whom?

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The credit crunch is more about lack of opportunities for good loans than concern about bank capital, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday.

    “My reading of current conditions is that bank lending is constrained more now by the supply of creditworthy borrowers than by the supply of bank capital,” he commented.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Lack-solid-borrowers-causing-credit/story.aspx?guid=%7BAD6CD9ED%2DDDA8%2D4118%2DA8D9%2D32E7A817E4E7%7D

  211. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:08 pm

    BC (206)-

    11/19/08. About three years into this thing…and finally, one Fed guvnor has a sliver of a clue.

    We are totally fcuked.

  212. sas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:13 pm

    Scan these 30 “leading indicators.” Each problem has one or more possible solutions, but lacks unified political support. Time’s running out. We’re already at the edge. Add up the trillions in debt: Any collective solution will only compound our problems, because the cumulative debt will overwhelm us, make matters worse:

    America’s credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA

    Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new “shadow banking system”

    Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson’s Wall Street Trojan Horse

    King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets

    Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year

    AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers

    American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money

    Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states

    State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt

    State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps

    Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up

    Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns

    Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry

    Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars

    Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion

    Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs

    Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown

    Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer

    Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%

    Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall

    Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930’s photos of soup lines

    Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists

    China’s sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai

    Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion

    The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities

    Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode

    New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt

    Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities

    The “antitaxes” message is a new bubble, a new version of the American dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises

  213. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:19 pm

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

    Four Bad Bears

    Is the sell off at the last hour each day still hedge funds?

  214. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:20 pm

    sas (208)-

    I’m actually losing the desire to rebel. Just wanna get out of here & lay low somewhere very, very out-of-the-way.

  217. Steve says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:33 pm

    BC (205),

    Right. That would be the govt, paying JPM $2.00 for their trouble-

    I hope they don’t have to beg.

  218. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:41 pm

    tosh 189

    Was involved in an “industrial accident” ( a fluid bed ruptured) and was exposed to a room full of 100% pure oxycontin dust. the air was so thick with it it looked like a fog.

    For the next 24 hours i was pretty sure i was superman. I am fairly sure i could have taken a couple rounds and not felt anything. Coming down off of that was HELL.

    The interesting thing about it is its a very subtle high and not immediately obvious that your judgment went out the window and your pain tolerance… well what is pain?

    Someone pointed out my judgment might be effected when i took off my shirt and was standing outside to cool off…. It was February and about 5 degress outside… It felt balmy to me at the time.

  219. Confused In NJ says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:43 pm

    The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities

    Chunk Change compared to States Pension & Health Care, unfunded liabilities.

  220. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:45 pm

    Helluva job you’ve got there, vodka.

  221. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:47 pm

    why would you take oxycontin to study? didnt see that effect.

    If you want something for that look into modafinil

  222. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 8:50 pm

    clot,

    it was time release also, so i was at peak high for about 24 hrs before coming down like falling off a cliff. I can only imagine what heroin withdrawal must be like, because it was physically painful coming down in a 4 hour period.

    turns out i was probably very close to a lethal dose… yeeehhawwww

  223. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:02 pm

    We can’t keep our banks solvent; we build cars that the friggin’ Cubans wouldn’t want; and, we export debt and inflation all over the globe.

    But we can invent and manufacture time-release, synthetic heroin.

    Only in America.

  224. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:03 pm

    (101) Clot

    “Ready to start building your cache yet?”

    I’m pretty much holed up in my little spot here, Clot. I’ll have to ride it out and do the best I can.

    I’m wondering what happened to the perp walk talk – you know they must be turning up some fraud/ misrepresentation of products – something…Have you heard anything about that lately?

  225. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:08 pm

    Cindy (220)-

    A very good friend of mine works as an enforcement-prosecution liaison within the SEC.

    The one thing he has steadfastly mentioned to me, over and over, is that no one will go to jail. Ever. No one. Not even Mozilo.

  226. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:11 pm

    Looks like they’re gonna skin Mark Cuban, though.

    Hey…what a thorough job they did. Only took four years for them to bring charges!

  227. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:13 pm

    Years of insane excess…and all we get are Martha Stewart and Mark Cuban, doing chump time over personal stock sales?

    Only a moron whose education didn’t extend beyond People magazine would call this justice.

    Education? Beyond People magazine? Oops. That is the norm. I apologize.

    Justice has been served.

  228. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:15 pm

    clot,

    if we really get pragmatic and legalize drugs, the US would be the world leader and we would probably be very rich very quickly. Heck half of my college degree was essentially the study of mass production of biotech and chemical pharmaceuticals…. drugs

  229. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:16 pm

    http://www.lehmanbrothersfraudinfocenter.com/

    (221) Clot -This is an entire web site dedicated to Lehman fraud.

    A lot of folks are only going to get more angry. So many have lost so much.

  230. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:18 pm

    fraud? what about GS? isnt their entire business model pump and dump?

  231. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:21 pm

    clot,

    the entire US method is the same as a drug dealer.

    Our main product was debt, our secondary product is commercial pharma.

  232. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:23 pm

    Legalize it, tax it, control it and have it fund rehab.

    But hey…that would empty the courts, empty prisons and cripple organized crime.

    The war on drugs has always seemed to me to be one of the proofs that the #1 enemy of the US gubmint is its own citizens.

  233. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:25 pm

    Cindy (225)-

    Lots of us have been angry for a long time. My anger is actually beginning to subside; I’m just tired.

    When enough people are angry enough to spill blood, things will change. Not before.

  234. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:26 pm

    vodka (226)-

    I’d call GS’ style postmodern bucket shop.

  235. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:31 pm

    clot,

    not to get to far afield, but our drug issues are tied up with western Christianity. The thought of people being able to experience please without penitence is ingrained as an evil thing.

    heck acid and shrooms are both likely better treatments for depression and a few other conditions then any of the legit drugs as shown by some recent studies.

  236. yome says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:31 pm

    Canada’s economy

    Breaking the deficit taboohttp://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12607289

    KEEPING the budget in surplus has been a near-obsession in Canada ever since a Liberal government felt obliged to slash public spending in the mid-1990s to end almost three decades of deficits and rising public debt. In the campaign for last month’s general elections, all five party leaders vowed to maintain a budget surplus. Yet within days of winning a second term at the head of a minority government, Stephen Harper, the Conservative prime minister, admitted that “global economic instability” meant that next year’s budget might involve a deficit

  237. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:32 pm

    Nikkei having a little 4.5% hiccup right now.

  238. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:33 pm

    A doctor friend of mine tells me LSD can cure alcoholism. Says the guy who founded AA tripped several times under doctor’s care & reported it helped him greatly.

  239. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:34 pm

    If you gave me a hit of blotter & told me I wouldn’t have a taste for Knob Creek when I came to, I’d give back the acid.

  240. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:40 pm

    I used to love my scotch – now – I can’t even handle to smell of the stuff…

  241. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:43 pm

    Man that was a long time ago.

    Never got into drugs. The band members did give me a white once when I was performing in college and was too drunk to do the last set…

  242. Al says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:43 pm

    # Clotpoll Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 9:23 pm

    Legalize it, tax it, control it and have it fund rehab.

    But hey…that would empty the courts, empty prisons and cripple organized crime.

    The war on drugs has always seemed to me to be one of the proofs that the #1 enemy of the US gubmint is its own citizens.

    Don’t forget to add that it will remove a major source of funding from Terrorists, take jobs away from BOTH Law Enforcement (millions of jobs in USA) and Drug smugglers/growers and they won’t be ably to compete with big Pharma, and also make drugs less attractive (more accessible though) to general population.

  243. Essex says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:43 pm

    Scotch and whiskey — two things that make life on earth tolerable.

  244. Essex says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:45 pm

    Folks I do believe…and thanks to the rapid deployment of information in places like this….the sheets have been pulled back on just how stupid business and government really are…not to mention greedy. Oh great and mighty Oz.

  245. Essex says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:46 pm

    231….I dunno…those treatments for Depression are a little….”unpredictable”….methinks.

  246. Cindy says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:51 pm

    (240) Essex – “The sheets have been pulled back on just how stupid business and government really are…” Well on the banking/investment industry anyway. Can you blame the markets for tanking – folks have had it.

    Can someone explain that last hour sell off please. Is that hedge funds or just folks in general?

  247. sas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:54 pm

    “legalize drugs”

    I’ve always thought drugs should be legal.

    But, that will never happen. Too many people in the military, CIA/DEA, and Dixie Mafia will make damn sure that never happens. (because they are the ones that run it, profits funnel through Wall St.)

    SAS

  248. sas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:55 pm

    and brother in Watts, LA would agree with me.

    SAS

  249. Al says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:57 pm

    # sas Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 9:54 pm

    “legalize drugs”

    I’ve always thought drugs should be legal.

    But, that will never happen. Too many people in the military, CIA/DEA, and Dixie Mafia will make damn sure that never happens. (because they are the ones that run it, profits funnel through Wall St.)

    SAS

    LOL see my post 238… I did not name the agencies though..

  250. sas says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:59 pm

    if no one believes me,

    what was Richard Grasso doing with the FARC?

    Head on DEA admitted in on 60 minutes..

    What was that CIA chopper doing with all that pure stuff when it crashed going over the border?

    Opium trade at a all time high out Afganistan….

    In Vietnam, Laos, and Cambotia…saw it being funneled out with me own eyes.

    SAS

  251. Al says:
    November 19, 2008 at 9:59 pm

    # Essex Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 9:46 pm

    231….I dunno…those treatments for Depression are a little….”unpredictable”….methinks.

    I would say that we have 100’s of years of clinical observation for some “Drugs” such as morphine, pot and mushrooms vs. Some experimental pills we are having – for example search for side effect’s of “Ambien” on the web -it might scare you…

    Some effects are unknown until 10’s of years after you start using the drug.

  252. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:16 pm

    Unpredictable? Man, they used to plug you into a wall socket if you had a case of the blues.

  253. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:18 pm

    I did tons of drugs when I was young, and I’m perfectly fine.

    Except for the ant colony that won’t quit traveling through the inside of my spine.

  254. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:28 pm

    Al,

    from my experience, and from talking to some researchers, the general rule of thumb seems to be that once a drug is on the market for 7 years you will know what the full range of side effects are.

    so if you want to be anal, then just try to stick with drugs that have been on the market for 7 years or longer.

    Note: i am not a doctor

  255. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:39 pm

    …but you’ve been in a room full of Oxycontin dust.

  256. Essex says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:41 pm

    All I know is that I kind of want to party with you guys……

  257. toshiro_mifune says:
    November 19, 2008 at 10:46 pm

    #234 – Clot – The history of LSD as a clinical drug is both long and very interesting. Bill W, the AA founder did claim that LSD cured him of alcoholism. Cary Grant said it helped him through severe depression and anxiety attacks. Aldous Huxley thought so much of it he requested he be allowed to trip while he was dying. Hell, it reoriented my head when I took it in high school.

    However, it is not a drug for the weak minded, like some others, so it scared the crap out of the ham and eggers. Right now we’ve passed by decades worth of research with a pharmaceutical that has had some profound psychological affects. All because some squares couldn’t handle it and ruined the party for everyone.
    A-holes.
    There used to be a great documentary on Albert Hofmann on youtube. I can’t find that one, so instead I’ll link to a BBC one that ain’t too bad.

    fnord

  259. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    tosh

    here is a video of a discussion with Dr Humphry Osmand who worked with physcodelics…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbuG3tKt6z8

  260. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:07 pm

    So, how does a guy get the bright idea that since he drinks too much, taking some LSD will help him stop?

    This, to me, ranks right up there with the first guy to eat a tomato and the guy who thought gamma-ray laser beams could shoot down missiles.

  261. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:11 pm

    The best stuff I ever got hold of- bar none- was this stuff a UNC pharma student friend of my GF’s cooked up.

    It looked like detergent, and the thing was to just put a few granules beneath your tongue.

    We called it “broccoli”, because everything in our fields of vision was pure green for about four hours. Otherwise, we were all just happy little jars of mayonnaise.

    After a couple of times, we realized we could go sit outside in the woods, and it was exactly like being in a forest of broccoli.

    Good times.

  262. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:12 pm

    somali housing boom???

    Somali pirates transform villages into boomtowns

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081119/ap_on_re_af/af_pirate_boomtown_1

  263. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:15 pm

    Why do the pirates demand to be paid in USD?

    These schmucks should insist on gold.

  264. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:15 pm

    clot,

    did you know crystal meth is prescribed as an ADHD Med?

    Desoxyn

  265. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:15 pm

    We’re about one step away from Waterworld.

  266. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:16 pm

    vodka (260)-

    That explains a lot about a couple of kids I coach.

  267. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:17 pm

    clot,

    somali business opportunity?

    Offer to handle the finance side of the somali ransom demands?

    You can play the currency market on the given day of the ranson and add a little bullion in there and you are off to the races.

  268. Clotpoll says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:18 pm

    vodka (263)-

    I sense there might be some personal safety issues there.

  269. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:20 pm

    hey, risk and reward, one comes with the other, so pull on your dragon skin and pick up that AK

  270. kettle1 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:21 pm

    clot,

    have i mentioned that doctors hate me ….

  272. reinvestor101 says:
    November 19, 2008 at 11:47 pm

    What??? Spilling blood??

    You’re an absolute unrepentant radical. I held my tongue when you talked about voting for Angela Davis, but this is entirely too much. There’s absolutely nothing to revolt over in this great nation.

    Tell you what, why don’t you try revolting against those who decided that they’d up end the real estate markets?

    Clotpoll Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
    Cindy (225)-

    Lots of us have been angry for a long time. My anger is actually beginning to subside; I’m just tired.

    When enough people are angry enough to spill blood, things will change. Not before.

  273. reinvestor101 says:
    November 20, 2008 at 12:01 am

    What the hell?? Let me tell you something, Mr. Hate America First, our government is not responsible for bringing drugs in this damn country. Put the damn focus on where it needs to be—the punks selling that crap and the dopeheads. This conversation needs to be about damn personal responsibility and not making up some freaking “conspiracy” theory with our government. I remember that reporter Gary Webb with the San Jose Mecury News telling those lies on the CIA which were throughly debunked. He couldn’t stand it when he was uncovered and wound up killing himself.

    Get the punks off the corner selling and stop the dirtbags from buying and you solve the dman drug problem. As far as legalizing is concerned–shut up.

    sas Says:
    November 19th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
    “legalize drugs”

    I’ve always thought drugs should be legal.

    But, that will never happen. Too many people in the military, CIA/DEA, and Dixie Mafia will make damn sure that never happens. (because they are the ones that run it, profits funnel through Wall St.)

    SAS

  274. the crazy man in the corner says:
    November 20, 2008 at 2:29 am

    Nicholas (141) –

    Actually, Chrysler Defense is already owned by GD Land Systems, they were bought by GD in the 80s IIRC.

    Main military infrastructure and armament is manufactured mostly in US or by key allies (in terms of major systems, such as tanks, planes, subs, ships, etc)

    low level armament, however, comes from all sorts of places (although, they are mainly key allies also) – anywhere from belgium, uk, sweden, etc

  275. the crazy man in the corner says:
    November 20, 2008 at 2:45 am

    re101 (269) –

    if you really believe that keeping that industry on the underworld track is the best way, you obviously have no idea how big the industry is, and why they want to keep it that way.

    Between the prisons, personnel, cheap labour, the amount of total law enforcement, judiciary, hardware we sell to other nations, transport, etc, it is a very large circle of people that would basically fall if that industry were to become part of the legal world. Police forces reduced by over 50% easily, judiciary systems unclogged, complete agencies (such as DEA/BATF/FBI/etc) would fall to 40-50% of current levels – remember, that is just enforcement forces, and not support personnel and assets. Think about the complete contraction in that space – we are talking TRILLIONS of dollars.

    Do you really think that they would just let it fall? We have the most incarcerated persons as a ratio to total population – around 30% directly for drug offenses, close to 55% for drug related offenses in state prisons, and in fed pens its even higher at 55% directly for drug offenses, and close to 71% for drug-related or induced offenses!

  276. Essex says:
    November 20, 2008 at 5:51 am

    269.
    I hope my karma doesn’t run over your dogma.

  277. kettle1 says:
    November 20, 2008 at 6:01 am

    cazy man

    funny thing eh, yet nicotine, caffeine, and alcohol are all perfectly acceptable mood altering substances just because of public perception.

    and the 1st 2 can be quite addictive

  278. DL says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:01 am

    Ref why NJ. Was intrigued about why people stay. Have tried to figure why I’m returning after I left 31 years ago. Best I could come up with was:
    – medical care
    – childhood, HS, college friends still in the area
    – close to Phila (could also be a reason to stay away)
    – mid-way b/t NYC and DC
    – close to int’l airport with direct flights to Europe
    – good shopping

    We have friends from Seattle to Florida and all points in between but NJ has the critical mass necessary to make it seem like home. Anywhere else in the country and we’d be new in an unknown area with no social network.

    On the other hand, we cannot believe how bad the neighborhoods and infrastructure look, especially when you head into Phila. Seems people are either used to it or don’t care. Makes us wonder where all the money is going. Hosting out-of-country visitors will be a problem because there are not too many places you can take them and be proud of the way your country looks unless you’re looking at rocks and trees. The nature is great, the man made stuff is terrible.

  279. cooper says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:12 am

    DL 31 years, where did you live? the mrs and I were just discussing a big move- nicer weather cheaper homes and even cheaper wages! not so thrilled with the options around the tri-state these days.

  280. DL says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:15 am

    Recession proof industries or things I can do without. Not saying it will come to that but it seems much of the analysis about which stocks to buy based on consumer habits and things people can’t do without doesn’t pass the commen sense test.
    Things I can do without in a depression:
    dining out
    cable TV
    new clothes
    vacations
    lawn service
    haircuts
    internet (go to library instead)
    alcohol
    name brand groceries
    car wash
    wife (just kidding about that last one)

  281. cooper says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:17 am

    Just got back from Miami area… some properties %60 off peak. from lauderdale to delray(approx.30 miles) there are over 7000 listings under 250k & that’s along the coast

  282. DL says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:25 am

    Cooper: ref 280 – have been an expat in Europe since 1977. Italy would be my choice if I could pick anywhere in the world to live but we’re trying to plan for the future and figure we want to be near family, friends, and medicine as we get older. We also want to return in time to have some active years before the inevitable starts to happen. If we stayed here till then, it will be too late to make the move. Like markets, you can’t time this sort of thing. I’d rather leave too early than too late. We also looked at Florida around Tampa. I loved the houses and the area but the south is too hot for the spouse so we’re confined to the NE.

  283. reinvestor101 says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:35 am

    You know what? You are crazy for posting this sort of crap.

    Look, the problem we have is a bunch of criminals running amok. I suppose you want them out here breathing the same air I’m breathing. Guess what? I don’t and I want them all locked up and I don’t mind paying for that.

    The drug problem is strictly a demand problem. No one has to conspire to do a damn thing if people would stop using the damn drugs. Hell, you could park a bunch of drugs on my doorstep and I’d happily walk over them and go about my damn business. It’s demand the the illicit desire for dishonest gains that fuels that entire market and the government does not have a damn thing to do with it.

    This is the same crap that Gary Webb of the San Jose Mercury News tried to put out several years ago with his Dark Alliance series. He was trying to blame the government for the crack epidemic rather than the dealers and addicts. Even major liberal rags like the NY Times debunked this crap and his employer found that he lied and fired him. Finally, it got to much for him and the wuss killed himself.

    Hell, we got satelites that can see a damn license plate on a car from outer space, don’t you think that if we had to, we could stop the flow of illicit drugs? These punks on the corner are too slick to be caught and they’re too numerous. These criminals are the main ones reponsible for the nation’s drug problem. Once you get one, another one pops up and the only damn thing you can do is warehouse their azzes in the damn jail. He shouldn’t be breathing the same damn air I breathing.

    the crazy man in the corner Says:
    November 20th, 2008 at 2:45 am
    re101 (269) –

    if you really believe that keeping that industry on the underworld track is the best way, you obviously have no idea how big the industry is, and why they want to keep it that way.

    Between the prisons, personnel, cheap labour, the amount of total law enforcement, judiciary, hardware we sell to other nations, transport, etc, it is a very large circle of people that would basically fall if that industry were to become part of the legal world. Police forces reduced by over 50% easily, judiciary systems unclogged, complete agencies (such as DEA/BATF/FBI/etc) would fall to 40-50% of current levels – remember, that is just enforcement forces, and not support personnel and assets. Think about the complete contraction in that space – we are talking TRILLIONS of dollars.

    Do you really think that they would just let it fall? We have the most incarcerated persons as a ratio to total population – around 30% directly for drug offenses, close to 55% for drug related offenses in state prisons, and in fed pens its even higher at 55% directly for drug offenses, and close to 71% for drug-related or induced offenses!

  284. reinvestor101 says:
    November 20, 2008 at 7:45 am

    How it is that you have to sign up with every bleeding heart post that’s made here? People aren’t running around killing each other for nicotine fixes. People aren’t packing to protect their nicotine stash. Don’t try to act like there’s any moral equivalence between nicotine addiction and crack addiction.

    Go somewhere and hug a tree.

    kettle1 Says:
    November 20th, 2008 at 6:01 am
    cazy man

    funny thing eh, yet nicotine, caffeine, and alcohol are all perfectly acceptable mood altering substances just because of public perception.

    and the 1st 2 can be quite addictive

  285. cooper says:
    November 20, 2008 at 8:04 am

    Thanks DL… cant believe you said the magic word-Italy. We looked in Sorrento a few years back, just not workable.

  286. AP says:
    November 20, 2008 at 10:51 am

    “During the third quarter, it was one of the best performing housing markets in New Jersey, with home prices rising a slight 1 percent, to $389,212.”

    This is what they tell us at the office meeting.

  287. cnbc bonus bucks says:
    November 29, 2008 at 10:05 am

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    December 8, 2008 at 3:51 am

    Under the sway of the global financial crisis, the U.S. auto giants General Motors and Chrysler LLC are tottering on the brink of collapse. Japan’s Toyota Motor was previously rumored to buy them out, but now Chinese carmakers SAIC

  289. franklin township nj says:
    December 8, 2008 at 4:07 pm

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  290. centenary college says:
    December 9, 2008 at 10:54 pm

    NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Drake Reed sank a pair of free throws with .2 seconds left in the game to seal Austin Peay’s 86-84 comeback win against Belmont on Monday night. Wes Channels scored a game-high 25 points and Reed chipped in 24 for

  291. robert nardelli says:
    December 10, 2008 at 8:26 am

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  292. alan mulally says:
    December 10, 2008 at 10:09 pm

    The Dow Jones industrial average closed below 8,000 today for the first time since 2003 after poor economic news was compounded by the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showing its leaders expect economic conditions

  293. aspipgueradume says:
    December 28, 2008 at 8:45 pm

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