Glen Ridge (Lehman Bros) Mega Comp Killer

Ridgewood Ave, Glen Ridge, New Jersey
Upscale – Check
Desirable – Check
Great Schools – Check (Some would say best-in-state)
Train Town – Check (Jitney at your door!)
Best Street in Town – Check
Mega Comp Killer – Damn Right

This beauty was purchased in June of 2006 by a Lehman Brothers Senior VP. Built in 2002, this baby has got it all, new world materials and old world craftsmanship. 6 Bedrooms, 9 Baths, and 10 other rooms that comprise an 8,900 square foot monument to excess. Taxes? 80 grand.

Purchase price? $3,700,000.00 (Yep, three point seven million)

Fast forward to September 17th, 2008, two days after the Lehman bankruptcy was announced, coincidentally.

Back on the market, this time at a price of $3,900,000.00. Factoring in the 5% commission, the seller would be walking away with roughly $3.7 million at this asking price, two years later and you break even, not too shabby. What real estate crash?

Come October, still not sold. I don’t get it, upscale train town with a great school system? This place should have been snapped up in a.. snap? Guess not, price reduced to $3,675,000.

Another month goes by, now we’re well into November. Still no sale. Price reduced again, $3,350,000. Now we’re firmly into loss territory. Factoring in commission, we’re at roughly a half a million dollar loss here. Surely no problem for a baller of this caliber.

December? Snooze.

January? Snip, price cut to $2,999,000.

Now we’re talking about serious cash. $701,000 under what they paid for it. Factor in that pesky 5% commission and now we’re at a loss of $851,000 in a little over two years.

Comes out to roughly a 10% per year loss, 20% off peak. Not so bad I guess, outperformed the stock market. Oh, wait, one catch… It still hasn’t sold.

Note: Like Lehman, I too forgot to take LEVERAGE into account as a factor of risk. In this case, if the owner made a 20% down payment on the property, the loss would have been roughly 100%.

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433 Responses to Glen Ridge (Lehman Bros) Mega Comp Killer

  1. safeashouses says:

    If he used a mortgage with 20% down, his losses are 100%.

  2. Shore Guy says:

    Clearly, this is only because it is a new “old” house. If it were an authentic old house in an upscale train town, like most of the ones available, this price drop would not have happened. With tried and true properties value will always hold.

    Gasp, cough. Yea, right.

  3. serenity now says:

    That Lehman Bros. dude is reaping what
    he sowed.
    Beautiful house though.

  4. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, Grim. What if we all chip in a few bucks and buy it as a clubhouse? We could call the group that meets there something like “The real prudent bubble-hater’s club.”

  5. Cindy says:

    Thanks Yikes and Zach for your comments regarding my book question yesterday – a no go.

  6. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Refinancing filings up 15.8% on week-to-week basis

    The volume of applications filed to refinance mortgages increased 15.8% last week compared with the week before, as applicants looked past higher mortgage rates, yet the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.

    Applications for mortgages to purchase homes fell down a seasonally adjusted 11.2% for the week ended Jan. 30 as opposed to the previous week, according to the Washington-based MBA’s survey. It covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.

  7. BC Bob says:

    I’m surprised that Suzie didn’t mention this one yesterday?

  8. Cindy says:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7868799.stm

    “Obama wants to avoid trade war”

    Mr. Obama said he wanted “to see what kind of language we can work on this issue.”

    Time to slow down Mr. Obama and think about long-term consequences before making any more decisions…

  9. Essex says:

    Obama’s new favorite words…..”I’m sorry”….(spoken in Elmer Fudd voice)

    Expect to hear that phrase a lot….as we spiral down….OMG! But Sarah Palin can save us!!!! OMG! OMG! OMG! (sarcasm off)

  10. yikes says:

    suze orman does a complete 180 on housing on GMA (715ish)

    – sometimes it is better to rent
    – dont buy unless you have 8 months worth of mortgage payments saved up
    – we won’t see a bottom in housing until the end of this year or early next year
    – sometimes it is better to walk away than stress out about payments

  11. BC Bob says:

    “Obama wants to avoid trade war”

    Too Late. He has already started one by making the statement.

  12. Cindy says:

    (11) BC

    I was watching PBS – BBC last night and even the Caterpillar guy said it was wrong. He pointed out that they would benefit from the infrastructure spending as much as anyone else but they didn’t want to compromise their market in China, India etc.

    Maybe Obama can rein this in – no?

  13. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [12],

    He drew the line in the sand, Geithner’s statement. Why take it back? It serves a useful purpose, detracting the herd from the mess that DC is getting us into. Not to mention how he is turning the simple task of forming a government into a mockery.

  14. Cindy says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090204/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/obama_failed_nominees

    Well at least he knows how to say this:

    “I screwed up,”

    Obama said repeatedly after two top nominees withdrew their names from consideration..”

    While the bill sits in the Senate, maybe someone can point out that it comes off as paying back IOUs to send money the the unions, green folk, Hollywood…

    It looks like more of that “business as usual” crap he said he would avoid.

    I’m one of those saps that likes it when someone admits they “screwed up.”

  15. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Job cuts reach seven-year high: Challenger

    The number of planned job cuts announced in January rose to 241,749, a seven-year high, according to a report released Wednesday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. The January job-cut total was 45% higher than the 166,348 cuts announced in December. Retailers led the job-cut wave, the report said.

  16. Cindy says:

    I’m still waiting for the “Frugal Families” show to start up. That was one of my predictions back in December.

    I thought someone here was going to get right on that…

    Stu?

    Maybe a reality show pitting two families with limited funds against each other weekly?

  17. grim says:

    Maybe a reality show pitting two families with limited funds against each other weekly?

    I think you are onto something here.

  18. Pat says:

    Cindy, not bread and circuses enough. Nobody wants to see somebody exactly like them, or in better shape, doing the right thing. People are so down in the dumps right now, that they couldn’t watch a frugal person saving money.

    They want to see somebody mess up who’s dumber (“I never would have spent that much on that house.”)…

    or somebody who’s weirder (“How can midgets do that????)…

    or somebody who’s in worse shape (“8 kids- they deserve that McMansion for letting us laugh at the crazy b/tch every show”).

  19. Pat says:

    So maybe frugal midgets with multiple children and personality problems trying to save their McMansions???

  20. grim says:

    All Hail Obama and his fantastic executive compensation restrictions!

    Woo! Way to go O! Limiting compensation to $500k (not including stock bonuses).

    That’ll stick it to them!

    Oh wait, except it isn’t retroactive and won’t apply to any company that has already received TARP funds without this restriction.

  21. Cindy says:

    (18) Pat –
    “How can midgets do that?” –
    You’re cracking me up…

    Well – we need to throw around some ideas….cheap food, coupon clipping, etc…..What would entertain the masses AND be educational..

    You win a vacation? Maybe there is an elimination each week? The folks call in their votes?

  22. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Well re the comp killer, at least he has his Lehman stock and pension to fall back on.

  23. grim says:

    From CNN/Money:

    Planned job cuts at 7-year high

    Jobs took another bad beating last month, with planned cuts rising to the highest level in seven years, according to a report released Wednesday.

    Job cut announcements by U.S. employers soared to 241,749 in January, up 45% from December’s 166,348 cuts, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. That was the highest number of pink slips handed out since January 2002.

    Layoffs rose 222% – more than triple – from January 2008, when 74,986 job cuts were announced.

    On the heels of the worst holiday season in decades, the retail sector was hit the hardest. Boosted in a large part by Circuit City, 53,968 job cuts were announced.

    Following retail, the industrial goods industry cut 32,083 jobs last month, while the computer, pharmaceutical and aerospace industries also notched large losses.

  24. Cindy says:

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5655115.ece

    UK says…

    “President Obama to water down “Buy American” plan after EU trade war threat”

    If the man will think ahead – does he want to stay around for eight years? …what are the unintended consequences of the decisions you make today…I’m just asking that they think about it.

  25. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Mish on the Comp Limits:

    “Instead of being fired for incompetence, executive salaries will be capped at $500,000.

    For the record, I am not in favor of salary caps, especially caps imposed by the government. I am in favor of letting the free market work. What would happen under a free market approach is these executives would be out on their ass and their companies bankrupt and sold off in pieces.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  26. victorian says:

    Cindy(21) –

    “cheap food, coupon clipping, etc”

    And in a consumer based economy, good luck finding advertisers for that show. Maybe, cashforgold? :)

  27. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Maybe they can have a tv show with debtor vs. debtor and the winner gets bailed out. Maybe call it “Who Wants To Keep Their House?”

  28. ruggles says:

    Here’s the new show. TLC has something on now showing the foreclosure tour bus and people walking through houses that used to be 700k+ now going for 200s to 300s. Jazz it up by bringing back the families that lost the house so we can see what kind of misery they’re in.

  29. Sybarite says:

    BS that ain’t a comp killer unless I know its 2002 price. That 2006 price was a peak purchase fueled by a mega bonus wall street year. What was the 2002 price?

  30. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Hmmm, I wonder why the VP needs to sell that house anyway. Wouldn’t him/her be one of those “invaluable” employees who needed a huge bonus in order for the company to keep them? A person like that should be able to write their own ticket at any investment bank on Wall Street!

  31. grim says:

    Sy,

    Sorry, there was no 2002 price. The property was purchased in 1999 for $885,000. I believe the old home may have been torn down (I doubt the lot was vacant) and the owner built the new home.

  32. Outofstater says:

    Well, I’ve been awake since 4 am – had a horrible dream about those cats left in the house from yesterday’s thread. Yikes. Stumbling around for more coffee…

  33. victorian says:

    On Madison Avenue, Shops Pack Their Hand-Tooled Bags

    New York’s most elegant shopping corridor, the Gold Coast of Madison Avenue, from 57th Street to 72nd Street, is pockmarked with vacancies as retailers flee sky-high rents. More than two dozen retail spaces are on the market and are either empty now or about to be. Windows that once showcased hand-tooled leather suitcases are now plastered with for-rent signs.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/business/04madison.html?_r=1&hp

  34. Cindy says:

    http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/story/1597008.html

    Well they are talking in CA – but no one knows what they are saying…

    “State’s Big Five keep talks secret for fear of dooming budget deal”

  35. WickedOrange says:

    Ha ha, great blog post Grim.

  36. BC Bob says:

    Vic [33],

    Maybe Frank was confused. He saw the line, retailers handing in their keys, and thought they were shoppers.

  37. yikes says:

    “buy American”

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/trade/2009-02-03-economic-stimulus-buy-american_N.htm

    how will our debt holders (Japan, China) feel about this?

  38. DL says:

    We going to have caps on salaries, caps on medicine (prices, not bottles), caps on energy use, caps on guns, you name it.

  39. SG says:

    Looks like it can be easily converted into Multifamily small Apartment building. If Glen Ridge gives approvals that is.

  40. BC Bob says:

    DL [38],

    And desperate attempts to create floors for RE/stock prices. On the flip side, no floors for paper. Debase and destroy.

  41. DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:

    Vic,

    I am surprised it took so log for them to pack them up. Those Madison Ave stores were essentially just advertising/keeping up with the Jones’. The retailers never made money on them.

  42. Cindy says:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/banksters-in-dc/

    Did anyone post this? From yesterday’s Big Picture..

    “Banksters in DC” – Josh Rosner

  43. Rich In NNJ says:

    Wow, here’s an opportunity for Frank to jump in the market.

    OFF TOPIC:
    I’m going to do some searches but does anyone have any info or recommendations on high velocity central air conditioning units?

    Thanks, Rich

  44. Cindy says:

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/q4-homeownership-rate-declines-to-2000.html

    Calculated Risk –

    “Q4 Home Ownership Rate Declines to 2000 Level”

    If we can just stay above 1999….

  45. BC Bob says:

    Another OT;

    Anyone ever stay at the Hotel Riu Cancun?

  46. hughesrep says:

    43

    I haven’t done anything with high velocity AC in a while, but Unico has been doing it well for quite some time. Ten years ago, when I used to deal with them, they were considerd the best, everyone else just copied what they did.

  47. BC Bob says:

    “If we can just stay above 1999….”

    Cindy,

    Hot knife thru butter.

  48. Cindy says:

    (47) BC – Well….I’ll have the sucker paid off in about 3 1/2 years. It’s my home.

    Depending on how low things end up, I may start wondering about then…Should I rent the sucker out and go find some fancy digs for a monthly payment?

  49. Rich says:

    Way overpriced when it was sold. This house costs 1.3 – 1.5 to build. That means they paid 2.2 mil for lot. Lots on that street or large homes have never sold close to that price on per square foot basis. The 2006 comparables only justify this house at 2 – 2.2. This buyer was scammed to begin with.

  50. Chuck says:

    The new mastercard commercial:

    Nice “Old” House in Glen Ridge $2.99 mil
    Essex County Taxes $80,000
    Knowing that one block away are inner city people in Montclair who wil be looking to break into your house constantly: PRICELESS

  51. Steve says:

    I hope this guy didnt take an interest only loan on this one when he bought it.

    He should call Sue Adler, its on the train line, I am sure she can get it sold with her lies to all the families she has looking on her website.

  52. Hobokenite says:

    Several W Hotel Hoboken condos on realtor.com now. I wonder how many will fail to close.

  53. Shore Guy says:

    “President Obama to water down “Buy American” plan after EU trade war threat””

    The problem is, unless he is willing to veto the stumulus plan, it is quite unlikely that the Buy American provisions will be left out of the plan. There are too many members of congress who will insist on retaining the provision. B.O. can huff and puff but he can’t force congress to do anything unless the members FEAR his power. The shine is rapidly tarnishing and the mistakes are starting to pile-up. If the congress rolls B.O. by adding all sorts of non-stimulating spending to the stimulus package and he does NOT veto the bill, the perception of his power goes poof.

    This is a profoundly dangerous time for both the nation and the B.O. administration. I guess we will soon find out whether there is any “there” there.

  54. Cindy says:

    (47) BC – 1999 would be about 60-65% off 2006 highs for California.

    I actually think that is about where we will end up…
    You say lower? By how much?

  55. Shore Guy says:

    “He should call Sue Adler, its on the train line, I am sure she can get it sold with her lies to all the families she has looking on her website”

    Look. The agents are pricing things correctly. We schlubs just need to do our duty and start buying.

  56. BC Bob says:

    Cindy [54],

    That’s about right. I thought your previous post was regarding home ownership %.

  57. Sean says:

    The idea of Dollar devaluation is getting more mainstream, by the minute.

    “Big Bang” fix for financial woes.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-francis/obamas-big-bang-could-do_b_163632.html

  58. Cindy says:

    http://market-ticker.org/archives/770-To-Obama-Confidence-Levels-Critical.html

    Karl Denninger today –

    “To Obama: Confidence Levels Critical”

    “Bluntly, America doesn’t trust Washington DC and they’re not sure they trust you.”

  59. Rich In NNJ says:

    hughesrep # 46,

    Thanks!

    I found this site, hvac-talk.com
    But they seem to agree with each other on high velocity as much as Jamil and Stu do on political economics.

    Found the site above through here:
    http://reviews.houseinprogress.net/archives/000646.html

  60. Ben says:

    but it’s in a good school district. It should sell in no time.

  61. d2b says:

    TLC Show- How to strip a McMansion on your way out the door.

    Or my favorite…

    Miami Squatters.

  62. bw says:

    Serious question from a non-frequent reader: why the tone of joy to see people losing money on their houses? most of the “comp killers” likely represent hard-working people who bought their house at the wrong time (just like millions of others) and are now in a financial bind and/or losing their jobs and losing sleeping at night. even the Lehman senior VP is not necessarily a bad person because he was successful and wanted a great house for his family – he probably worked 15 years of 80-100 hour weeks to get to where he was and probably lost his job and is now bankrupt. he obviously made a bad financial decision, but why would this make anyone happy?

  63. Hobokenite says:

    bw:

    There’s an old saying. You can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.

    In order for housing to return to sane levels, some people will have to lose money when they overpaid for houses.

    Did you cheer when oil dropped from $150 to $40? What about the poor oil speculator who made a bad financial decision betting that it would go to $200 (like GS said it would)?

  64. Sean says:

    bw – not any kind of tone of Joy here that is for sure.

    The TONE is DOOM!

  65. Sean says:

    Go Gold? “Big Bang” plans are being leaked now.

    Bank Rescue Would Entail Triage for Troubled Assets
    Executive Pay Limits Planned for Some Aid Recipients

    By Binyamin Appelbaum and David Cho
    Washington Post Staff Writers
    Wednesday, February 4, 2009; D01

    The Obama administration’s emerging rescue plan for the banking system would amount to financial triage, with the Treasury Department playing the delicate role of deciding which of the trillions of dollars in troubled assets plaguing the economy to buy, guarantee or leave in the hands of banks, sources said.

    The high-stakes approach would dramatically increase the investment of taxpayer money in the financial industry, and the potential losses. The plan, which Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is set to announce Monday, is being crafted under tremendous political pressure from people who say the government is risking too much as well as from those who say it is not doing enough to end the crisis.

    Facing public anger over the rescue of firms many people blame for causing a recession, the Obama administration is focused on producing a plan that is not just effective but also politically palatable, sources said.

    Today, the administration is planning to announce tougher restrictions on compensation at companies that need massive government assistance to survive, including a $500,000 cap on executive pay. That move may not appease critics, because, sources said, most firms that get federal aid would not face severe pay conditions.

    The basic problem confronting the government is that banks hold large quantities of assets that they value on their books for much more than investors are willing to pay. Banks cannot sell these assets without recording massive losses. But holding the assets is tying up vast amounts of money, choking the financial system.

    Since the early days of the financial crisis, officials have struggled to unwind that knot. If the government buys the assets at prices that banks consider fair, the Treasury would take a huge loss when it ultimately sells the assets for much less. If, instead, the government insists on paying market prices, the banks may not survive their losses.

    Instead of taking a single approach, the Obama administration plans to divide assets and other loans into three categories, each with its own solution, according to sources familiar with the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity because the details are not finalized.

    The government would buy and hold on to those assets whose falling prices are putting banks under the most pressure. Officials want to limit these purchases because of the vast expense.

    The centerpiece of the plan would be a guarantee to limit losses on a second group of troubled assets that can be kept by the banks because they have more stable prices.

    And it would allow banks to retain and profit from their healthiest assets.

    Beyond these initiatives, the government also is likely to inject more capital into troubled institutions.

    The triage approach is a response to accounting rules.

    When banks buy assets such as loans, they must specify for accounting purposes whether they plan to hold the asset until it is repaid in full or whether they might sell the asset earlier. If the price of similar assets begins to fall, banks may be required to record a loss in value. Those rules apply much more strictly to assets that a bank has said it may sell.

    As a result, the recorded value of such “available for sale” assets has declined much more sharply in comparison with assets “held to maturity.” Two identical loans, one placed in each category, would now carry different values for accounting purposes.

    The government plans to focus on buying assets “available for sale” — those assets whose values banks have already written down substantially, sources said. Such assets are causing immediate problems for banks because they must set aside substantial amounts of capital to compensate for the losses recorded on their books.

    Assets “held to maturity” would remain with the companies, but the government would guarantee to limit any losses.

    Allowing institutions to hold those assets rather than selling them to the government would avoid a moment of reckoning because the banks will also be able to avoid acknowledging on their books the sharp declines in market prices. Government officials argue the approach is better for banks and taxpayers because the price of many assets will eventually recover after the financial crisis passes, so there is no value in forcing the banks to record losses.

    But many financial experts say that market prices deserve more respect. They argue that many assets are unlikely to recover much of their value and that the government would simply be postponing the day when banks must record losses.

    Joshua Rosner, a financial analyst at Graham Fisher, said in a recent research note that it makes no sense to accept the prices banks have assigned to assets as more accurate than the prices assigned by investors in the marketplace.

    “I would argue that it is a thinly veiled attempt to prevent losses from being recognized and which will result in larger levels of ultimate losses,” he wrote.

    Investors have been unimpressed by the government’s first forays into asset guarantees.

    In November, the government agreed to limit Citigroup’s losses on a portfolio of $301 billion of troubled assets. Last month, the government issued a similar guarantee to Bank of America covering $118 billion in troubled assets. In both cases, the companies agreed to absorb an initial increment of losses — about $30 billion for Citigroup and $10 billion for Bank of America — with the government absorbing 90 percent of any subsequent losses.

    Even after the guarantees, however, both companies’ stock prices continue to trade near historic lows. Financial analysts say that investors remain uncertain about the extent of the companies’ financial problems because the government has not disclosed which assets it guaranteed, or at what prices. “It’s a lack of confidence because of a lack of capital,” Paul Miller, a banking analyst at Friedman, Billings and Ramsey said. “Until you get that capital in, you’re going to be going from crisis to crisis to crisis.”

    To address public anger over the bailout, White House officials are set to detail today the restrictions that would be imposed on financial firms receiving what the government deems to be “exceptional” assistance. A minority of recipients would fall into this category.

    Such companies would be required to cap their executives’ pay at $500,000, a source said. Any compensation above that limit could come only in the form of restricted stock that cannot be sold until the government has been repaid. Dividend payments would be restricted to a penny. These institutions would also be banned from using federal aid to buy other firms.

    But companies receiving less than “exceptional assistance” are unlikely to face such severe conditions, largely because administration officials are concerned they would not participate in any of the government programs that are intended to promote bank lending.

    Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said the dual standards make sense. But he understands the anger of ordinary Americans against the program.

    “The average person is furious about this because they could say, ‘I go to my job and don’t mess up and yet I’m losing my health benefits and being put on furlough. Yet these guys did something wrong, why aren’t they being asked to sacrifice?'” he said. “Right now every financial institution, particularly those that are getting assistance, has to be sensitive that it’s a new world.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/03/AR2009020303782.html?hpid=topnews

  66. Hard Place says:

    DISSIDENT HEHEHE says:
    February 4, 2009 at 7:57 am
    Mish on the Comp Limits:

    “Instead of being fired for incompetence, executive salaries will be capped at $500,000.

    For the record, I am not in favor of salary caps, especially caps imposed by the government. I am in favor of letting the free market work. What would happen under a free market approach is these executives would be out on their ass and their companies bankrupt and sold off in pieces.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

    That’s pretty much spot on. The large players taking TARP funds should be happy to get 500k. Some of these firms would be underwater by now. Of course I love how they throw in the caveat that it applies to companies taking TARP funds “in the future”. They really pulled the wool over our eyes.

  67. Hard Place says:

    Hobokenite – for kicks, how much per sq ft for those W condos.

  68. Cindy says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/118179-is-foreclosure-the-solution?source=email

    Felix Salmon – “Is Foreclosure the Answer?”

    Yes –

    It has been in CA

  69. comrade nom deplume says:

    [53] shore,

    Regardless of whether there is overt “buy american” language in any bill, protectionism is absolutely required if the democrats agenda is to create a single job.

    Reason is that the dem tax policy is squarely aimed at punishing foreign earnings, and the only targets they can reach are domestic multinationals, be they corporations or partnerships. The current proposals will have the effect of forcing a lot of companies and entities to decide whether it makes sense to be an american multinational with foreign ops, or the inverse. Couple that with pro-labor policies that make it harder and more expensive to operate here, and it isn’t hard to see where a lot of companies will decide to come down. Think it was about being close to customers when Halliburton moved its HQ to Dubai? Thus, you may wake up one day to find that Exxon is a Bermuda corporation and all of its american assets are held in a C corporation that Exxon spins off 49% to its existing shareholders and holds the rest (or maybe spins off even more since it can still maintain de facto control). And Foreign Exxon now gets to rejoin all of those unrepatriated profits. Thus, the Treasury will no longer see dollar one of the income Exxon earned outside of the U.S. Further, Foreign Exxon can now operate free from U.S. restrictions, except in the US, and since the US will be a closed market, the oils, or anyone else, can charge what they want here. US shareholders will take a tax hit on dividends, but Foreign Exxon will simply keep cash and pay debt, thus boosting its share price and giving shareholders tax preferred cap gains instead of dividends. And those spun-off shares of US Exxon will benefit from the protectionism to come.

    Now that former US companies are now foreign companies (consumers hardly notice), the Dems are furious. More money and jobs than ever just went offshore. They took away tax breaks, and will take away more, but foreign cos. don’t need US tax breaks since they have no US exposure (remember, their US ops are handled through a sub). Consumers are relatively unaffected since cheap foreign goods continue to come in and they buy them.

    Fast forward to labor unrest and outrage at the expatriation of so many companies, and the stage is set for protectionism. The only way to get americans to pay more for american goods is to make foreign goods more expensive. And the only way to do that is protectionism, in any of its many forms. Thus, if Treasury depresses the dollar, or lowers the corp. tax rate on US companies, US Exxon mints money and shareholders (including the parent company) are happy. If Congress decides to strike back at foreign parents with taxes on outbound dividends, the eurozone and asian tigers do the same.

    So, unless the O man can reign in Pelos1 and Reid and Levin, we will have protectionism as further job loss will be a natural outgrowth of the squeeze that Congress will put on domestic companies, and protectionism will be the result.

  70. Cindy says:

    (65) Sean – I think that’s the same Joshua Rosner @ 42. He makes sense to me.

  71. Sean says:

    From Naked Capitalism –

    ” I heard of a suicide today, a jewelry dealer who was $400,000 in debt (also owed a lot of money but unable to collect) who threw himself off 10 West 47th Street (from someone else in the building, this is no urban legend). A tragedy, and a visible one, and there is plenty of less acute but no less real trauma afoot.”

  72. RentinginNJ says:

    Look. The agents are pricing things correctly. We schlubs just need to do our duty and start buying.

    Line of the day!

  73. BC Bob says:

    nom [69],

    Excellent post.

  74. Pat says:

    bw, “why the tone of joy…the happiness..”

    bw, there’s a difference between gallows humor and joy. If you ain’t getting it, you ain’t got it.

    Every single one of us who has been posting for any length of time here knows that it could be any of us walking in those bankrupt shoes. We’re constantly reminding ourselves of what strength of character inside of us made us NOT BUY. NOT FALL TO THE MARKETING PLOYS AND THE FALSE SENSE OF BETTER-THAN-THOU ADVICE. Free and easy money does not equal the god-given-right to success.

    It’s better to make fun of greed..over and over and over…than to forget. It’s not easy being greed – when the chips fall.

  75. Hard Place says:

    Nom – Thanks for the insight. Makes me want to book a one way flight to Costa Rica.

  76. still_looking says:

    Pat 74

    Well said!

    sl

  77. David says:

    According to Trulia the median sales price in Glen Ridge is 580k, up 23.2% year over year.

    So maybe the 3.7M outlier is not representative and the “train town, great schools, I don’t get it” sarcasm is unwarranted?

  78. Victorian says:

    “According to Trulia -”

    Stopped reading at that point. Looks like out of work RE agents are in full force here today.

  79. skep-tic says:

    so does anyone know whether this compensation cap proposal applies to all employees of TARP companies or just top executives?

  80. bw says:

    I hear you guys and i understand that prices need to/will come down from inflated levels. i also understand that some people are looking forward to prices coming down so they can buy a place. i just don’t think most of the people whose lives are being destroyed by the current economy/housing environment are ‘oil speculator-types’ or were necessarily greedy; most probably just made bad a financial decision.

    i don’t have a problem with gallows humor, just feels like a thin line between that and enjoying tragedy.

  81. Cindy says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090203/ap_on_go_co/congress_stimulus

    Anyone buy a car lately?

    “Senate votes to give tax breaks to new car buyers”

    The vote was 71-26 to allow many car buyers to claim an income tax deduction for the cost of automobile sales tax and interest payments on car loans……

    It would apply to the first $49,500 in the price of a new car purchased between last Nov. 12 and Dec. 31, 2009. Individuals with incomes of up to $125,000 and couples earning as much as $250,000 could qualify, including those who do not itemize deductions.”

  82. still_looking says:

    bw

    most of the “comp killers” likely represent hard-working people who bought their house at the wrong time (just like millions of others) and are now in a financial bind and/or losing their jobs and losing sleeping at night.

    I don’t agree. Many (maybe) most? NO. A lot of these folks are people who were looking to profit from the boom who kept MANY of us from buying as we watched normal priced houses skyrocket.

    We suffered for not being able to “live the American dream” of “homeownership” and instead used our heads and rented or bunkered with relatives til the madness abated.

    This isn’t “JOY” as you put it.

    I’m no financial guru or genius by any stretch, but I looked at the Case-Shiller graph and recognized (with lotsa help from the incredible folks here) the insanity.

    We were dissuaded numerous times from buying houses that even with my income as a doc would have put us underwater (and potentially in trouble.)

    How do I suffer? Let me tell you. I work in an ER. We aren’t salaried. If I work 80 hrs I get paid 80 hrs. We have a “new” doc. He bought and built in 07. I have no doubt he MUST “x” number of hours to pay for that.

    We have a set number of hrs. If he works more…. some of us…[read: ME] gets less hours and hence, less income.

    Am I bitter? Oh you bet I am. Many people who were prudent are suffering for those who were profligate:

    1 : completely given up to dissipation and licentiousness 2 : wildly extravagant : prodigal

    And for this I have days, no – weeks, when I think that I don’t even want to buy in NJ, let alone the US, at all.

    sl

  83. anarchy1 says:

    so i take it everyone here is already in the process of buying homes and investment properties??? given this is what you all have been wanting for such a long time…im glad to see your hating hitting you all where it hurts…YOUR WALLETS….WHY SO SERIOUSSSSSSS??? HAHAHAHAHAHA

  84. Sybarite says:

    #29 was posted by an impostor. Again. Not me.

  85. make money says:

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said Wednesday that the firm would like buy back an investment made in it by the Treasury under the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program as soon as possible, but there are certain restrictions and nuances to doing it. Viniar told listeners to a Webcast of a Credit Suisse-sponsored financial services conference that Goldman likely needs to raise Tier 1 capital before it would qualify to buy back the investment, and a common stock offering would be the most likely way to raise that capital. Viniar made it clear though that despite rumors in the market; he is not saying that the firm is planning a large common offering in March. He added that Goldman would only pay the money back with the blessing of the Fed and the Treasury

  86. BC Bob says:

    “most probably just made bad a financial decision.”

    [80]

    As did those that were long in 10/87, as did those that were long dot.com, as did those that were long in 1-/07, as those that were long Sterling in 1992, etc… The list goes on and on. You have a history of brain dead financial decisions. Nothing new here.

    Nobody takes pleasure in their situation. However, many have to look at themselves in the mirror and ask why?
    Who forced then to suck out equity and buy a vacation house, a hummer, a bowling alley in their basement? What about those that committed outright fraud? The faster we can clear the deck, the faster we can grow out of this hole. Stop delaying, freezing, hoping and manipulating. Start purging.

  87. Hard Place says:

    skep-tic says:
    February 4, 2009 at 9:57 am
    so does anyone know whether this compensation cap proposal applies to all employees of TARP companies or just top executives?

    Full details on the plan is lacking, but there was a caveat that it applies to companies receiving funds in the future (read not current TARP participants) or large fund recipients (possibly BofA, Citi, or AIG). That’s how I saw it.

  88. Hard Place says:

    Anyone buy a car lately?

    “Senate votes to give tax breaks to new car buyers”

    The vote was 71-26 to allow many car buyers to claim an income tax deduction for the cost of automobile sales tax and interest payments on car loans……

    It would apply to the first $49,500 in the price of a new car purchased between last Nov. 12 and Dec. 31, 2009. Individuals with incomes of up to $125,000 and couples earning as much as $250,000 could qualify, including those who do not itemize deductions.”

    I might be too young to remember, but wasn’t there at one point an ability to deduct interest for other things besides mortgages?

  89. still_looking says:

    BC 86

    Thank you! (I love you for saying that!)

    sl

  90. Shore Guy says:

    bw, “why the tone of joy…the happiness..”

    When it comes to addictions, whether gambling, drinking, drugs, whatever, it has been long recognized that most people cannot overcome the addiction as long as they are still enabled by well-meaning friends, relativres, coworkers, etc., who, in the interest of being compassionate, do not force the issue and MAKE the person with the addiction face up to and address their problem. This country has been suffering from an addiction to debt; and this addiction has prompted many people who sure should have known better to act in fundamentally iresponsible ways.

    As part of our “everyone else was shooting heroin” mentality, people extended themselves to buy things they did not need in order to impress people who did not care anything about them; much of this was done with borrowing — whether credit cards or the home ATM. However it was done, it was borrowing nonetheless. Society’s acceptance of this irresponsible behavior led to a massive lemming-like rush to leverage and the newfound cash flooded into equities and real estate — thus irrationally boosting prices of both.

    These price increases, especially in housing, shut-out the prudent amongst us as we could see the bubble. The imprudent shook their heads at the prudent and went on with their binge. As they did, prices continued to rise and the myth that somehow this bubble was different came to be believed by those wh HAD to have it be true because they could never cover the costs without ever-increasing prices and ever-more frequent refinancing of their millstone debt.

    As just about everyone here knew it would, the music stopped playing. Those of us who paid off our mortgages own our own chairs so we are okay. Those who rent were not weighed down by a massive home debtload, so they are okay. The imprudent, the ones who fueled the run-up, the ones who lie at the heart of this economic meltdown, are in a position of their own making. I certainly do not wish ill to any of these folks. I am sure that on an individual basis we would all be saddened to hear their tales of woe. Nevertheles, they made their own economic bed and they must sleep in it.

    Often, those with addictions must “hit bottom” before they may be cured. The same is true for the housing market; the attempts to be compassionate and prop-up prices will only prolong the agony. The assets were NEVER worth what people were paying for them, people only wanted to BELIEVE that they were.

    To fix this situation, the irresponsible will suffer. I suppose one could say this is the price of enjoying a life beyond their means in the first place. The time has come to pay the pieper and he has a really big club to rough-up those who can’t pay.

    So, excuse the long post, but neither I nor most of the people here take pleasure in the suffering of the folls who got us into the current mess. Nevertheless, we also tend not to feel any obligation to bail them out and allow them to continue to reap benefits at our expense.

  91. Outofstater says:

    $86 Yep. The Elmer’s glue ain’t gonna work on this house of cards. Let them all fall so we can start over with something more substantial.

  92. David says:

    #78 So Trulia’s recent sales statistics are rigged? Fake? A quick glance at GSMLS shows almost every listing is under 1M. Is GSMLS ok?

    Look, I come here because I’m inclined to agree with the general tone of the board, but this post sets off my BS detector. You can’t take an unrepresentative high end property and extrapolate to the whole town when the median sale is 1/6 the price. You can and should expect the most dramatic “comp killers” to happen at the high end.

    And no, I’m not now nor have I ever been a RE agent. And no, I don’t live in Glen Ridge or even in Essex County.

  93. Hubba says:

    Anyone else think Sue is MILFY?

  94. Hard Place says:

    make – re:GS

    Sounds like some dissension in the ranks and GS may have been forced into TARP, so that it didn’t look like TARP catered to bad banks causing run from depositors. This salary cap issue could get interesting.

  95. Shore Guy says:

    “. i just don’t think most of the people whose lives are being destroyed by the current economy/housing environment are ‘oil speculator-types’ or were necessarily greedy; most probably just made bad a financial decision.”

  96. kettle1 says:

    BW,

    No one forced people to buys homes. All of the information was available as to whether or not a home was affordable to a family. if a family chose to ignore traditional financial considerations and play the leverage game just like wall street was, by buying more then they could actually afford and then depending on continued level of abnormal appreciation, then they deserve no sympathy.

    yes many groups for realtors to banks and the government were heavily pushing people to buy. but in the end these people had the opportunity, whether they took it or not to sit down and run their own numbers and decide if they could afford.

    Being able to afford a home includes being able to maintain yourself through rough times with a sufficiently sized nest egg set aside for unexpected situations, from job loss to a new roof.

    I (and the rest of us on this blog) take no pleasure in seeing families suffer. but we also refuse to protect them from their own mistakes.

  97. Shore Guy says:

    “. i just don’t think most of the people whose lives are being destroyed by the current economy/housing environment are ‘oil speculator-types’ or were necessarily greedy; most probably just made bad a financial decision.”

    Okay. So how is that our problem? People make all kinds of bad — if well-meaning — economic decisions every day. Some bet their money on a horse, some a footbal game, some a slot machine, some a big diamond ring, etc. JUst because someone wrongly thought they were going to make out in a financial transaction does not mean that they should be insulated from their poor decision.

    Hey, I bet that people, back when, who bought a Yugo did so thinking it was a good decision. If they had car troubles and later had to ditch it for something more reliable and better built, why would you or anyone else thing that the Buick owners, or whatever, should extend a hand to help them overcome their economic loss?

    Look, if someone’s home burns to the ground, I say we should get them into temporary shelter, we should get them some clothing and food. We should not rebuild their house and pay for their lost furniture etc. if they failed to buy homeowner’s insurance.

  98. Qwerty says:

    RE: “now we’re at a loss of $851,000 in a little over two years”

    Don’t forget opportunity costs and mortgage interest paid.

    He’s looking at well over $1M loss.

    “Now is a great time to buy or sell.”

  99. Sean says:

    re: #93 Make and Hard – Bonus & TARP

    Based upon the 180 Billion used to save AIG actually saved GS they should have to pay that back too.

  100. Shore Guy says:

    So with this tax break on cars:

    Again, we HENRYs get left out in the cold. First, for making too much, second, at the lower end of the HENRY scale, it means that if one buys the car outright, no financing, there is no break. Sure, lets encourage MORE debt.

    Is THIS congress the best we can do?

  101. Shore Guy says:

    “now we’re at a loss of $851,000 in a little over two years”

    I bet there will not be any pictures of Suzie Sunshiine’s clients as she tells them the good news of “pricing properties properly.” Red eyes, and tears streaming down their faces might not be the best marketing tools.

  102. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, is thst what Larry at NAR is? A marketing tool.

  103. Barbara says:

    80. bw
    I’ll fess up. To a certain extent I AM enjoying the plunge. I have had significant amounts of time over the last 5-6 yrs of my life wasted while on tours with lying realtors looking at ramshackle properties. This “bubble” was played out like an illicit coke bash in Thailand, not a boo hoo just trying to make a nice life for my family, blah blah.

  104. Cindy says:

    88 – Hard Place – Yes, you could write off CC interest, car interest…

    Some started rolling those totals into HELOCS because the could write off the interest…

    99 – Shore – You could buy outright and claim the sales tax.

    Late day – meeting – Have a good one.

    BTW – my 2 cents…

    The house posted today represents the hubris we all saw. Some banker has so much money that he over-pays for the land – tears down what was probably a perfectly good house – so he can build an over-priced castle.

  105. Rich In NNJ says:

    From AdAge.com

    Automakers Report Worst January Sales in Almost 50 Years

    The last time the auto industry sold roughly 669,000 vehicles in the U.S. in January, as it did this year, was in 1963, when Chubby Checker ruled the music charts and Michael Jordan was born.

    ————–

    What a reccesion indeed.

  106. kettle1 says:

    Shore:

    “Is THIS congress the best we can do?”

    at the moment, yes.

    If the citizenry do not hold their officials to standards, then any government gets our of hand. So the question goes beyond taxation, and becomes how can we ever have a sound government, and the answer is by a principled populace. As has been said by Jefferson and Tocqueville, people get the government they deserve.

    When the average joe is more concerned with acquiring a new 50″ plasma or who is on American Idol as opposed to actually understanding what you political representatives stand for and vote for then the answer is yes. We as a nation have the government we deserve.

  107. Barbara says:

    wait, so if I pay a car full in cash, no tax break? Why not? Its just a simple deduction, why does method of payment change that?

  108. comrade nom deplume says:

    [73] bc

    thx.

    BTW, did you get yesterday’s dig re: my dog? Not everyone would get ‘beanpot’ humor but I thought you might.

  109. Shore Guy says:

    “The house posted today represents the hubris we all saw. Some banker has so much money that he over-pays for the land – tears down what was probably a perfectly good house – so he can build an over-priced castle.”

    This sounds like Ocean Ave in Spring Lake, South Belmar (or whatever we are calling it this week), and Belmar. It is amazing to drive by spec homes that have been sitting on the market for YEARS where, especially in Spring Lake, perfectly grand homes once stood. If things continue to stand empty, and the carrying costs mount, one wonders whether these structures will encounter a run of bad luck with either electrical storms or faulty wiring.

  110. comrade nom deplume says:

    [106] barbara

    Yes, pay cash and no tax break. The bill is designed to incentivize folks who would not otherwise buy. The reason for these limits and the income limit is to prevent rewarding those who can, and might, buy anyway.

    It is also an indirect state bailout since the feds are basically picking up the sales tax and fees. The thinking is that these are fees they might not otherwise see.

    And notice that it isn’t limited to domestic cars. Lotsa cars building up in the Port of Baltimore and Mikugly wants them moved.

  111. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “The penalty for buying a home over the next few years versus renting is over $700 per month – and you have to risk losses due to deflation on your home. The median rental today correlates to a home purchase price of $157,000. With the median house currently worth $230,000, this is a significant difference.”

    Good read check out link. Some nice graphs too.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/118423-better-to-rent-than-buy-a-home

    If 4% home loans are offered to home buyers, house prices would have to fall another 15% to 20% to be at the buy vs rent home break even point.

    Many will talk about the affordability index of home ownership. This simply ignores that financially there may be better uses for your money.

    Proposed solutions for the housing crisis also ignore that home ownership is in a value competition with rental homes. Clearly it is cheaper to rent, and renting provides more value in your monthly budget.

    If you are buying a home, keep in mind its rental potential – and make your offer accordingly.

    With all the economic uncertainty – you should carefully analyze the benefits of buying a home in 2009.

    Disclosure: None.

  112. Ben says:

    “No one forced people to buys homes. All of the information was available as to whether or not a home was affordable to a family. if a family chose to ignore traditional financial considerations and play the leverage game just like wall street was, by buying more then they could actually afford and then depending on continued level of abnormal appreciation, then they deserve no sympathy.”

    When I turned 23 5 years ago, everyone was telling me I was crazy to rent and I have to buy because I would be throwing money away. I looked at what the houses cost and simply proclaimed I could not take on that debt because I made the crazy assumption that the house would not appreciate at all. God knows what I would have thought had the house decreased in value. This took about 10 minutes. Maybe if these people took 10 minutes in their life to make such an important decision, we wouldn’t have had this mess.

  113. Shore Guy says:

    Barbara, if part of the deduction is based on making interest payments deductable, the lack of interest payments removes part of the benefit. Once again, we are encouraging BORROWING on depreciating assets. If they want to make a difference, give anyone who purchases a plug-in hybrid a cheque for the difference between the cost of the standard model of that vehicle type and the cost of the plug-in hybrid. It eliminates a big part of the disincentive to buying the more expensive vehicle, reduces the need for imported energy, reduces pollution, and helps jump-start demand — thus leading to more long-term employment in the so-called green sector.

  114. comrade nom deplume says:

    [99] shore,

    Remember, the cutoff is AGI, so if you can get your AGI down to under 250K married, you can get the full amount.

    This is better than a lot of income phaseouts, and it is an above-the-line deduction, which is not subject to the AGI haircut. So Mikugly did think of the HENRYs more than most democrats do.

    Bigger trick is to pay attention to the cost and weight limits

  115. Ben says:

    bw,

    “I hear you guys and i understand that prices need to/will come down from inflated levels. i also understand that some people are looking forward to prices coming down so they can buy a place. i just don’t think most of the people whose lives are being destroyed by the current economy/housing environment are ‘oil speculator-types’ or were necessarily greedy; most probably just made bad a financial decision.”

    I would disagree. I know plenty of people who were throwing it in other peoples faces about how smart they were because they owned 3 “investment properties”. If these people made bad financial decisions, then fine, they should live with it. Not beg us to get them out of their bad decisions. I understand that some people aren’t asking for help but the majority of people are looking for someone to blame other than themselves.

  116. Barbara says:

    109.
    Com
    once again Ive played the fool. I lived within my means, saved money and I will be penalized for my clear headed approach.

    This is going to happen with the child healthcare issue too. Since I have my kid on my private, self employed insurance, that must mean that “I can afford it” therefore, no free ride for me. Never mind that that chunk of change SHOULD be going towards our under funded retirement accounts. Meanwhile, neighbors with more kids than they can afford but with two 50K SUVs in the back will get it all paid for.
    Classic.

  117. still_looking says:

    Rich in NNJ

    240 Paramus…. ya know, cuz I just gotta ask :)

    sl

  118. Hard Place says:

    Barb,

    wait, so if I pay a car full in cash, no tax break? Why not? Its just a simple deduction, why does method of payment change that?

    Incentive for financing business.

  119. Hard Place says:

    And notice that it isn’t limited to domestic cars. Lotsa cars building up in the Port of Baltimore and Mikugly wants them moved.

    Nom – car market dropping like a rock. I know someone who just picked up a used 911 Turbo 4 yrs old 13k miles for 60k on a 150k new car. In the go-go days, this car probably was still valued at 120k.

  120. Shore Guy says:

    “As has been said by Jefferson and Tocqueville, people get the government they deserve.”

    Ket,

    I struggle with this whole issue. It is said that evil emerges when good people stand by and do nothing. I think that the same thing may be true of bad government; it emerges when the folks who should serve in elected office for at least some period do not run.

    Amongst others, have had a lot of contact with members of congress and the senate. There are a few elected office holders who very much impress me. Most do not.

    At times I have been encouraged to run for a House seat, but I have demured. Part of it is not wanting to commute back and forth between DC and here (it is not that far but one would not be able to avoid being in DC on Tues and Wed nights at a minimum), part of it is the salary, part of it is the savage nature of campaigns. FOr those of us who have options besides a career suckling at the public teat, why put one’s self and one’s family through the ringer of a campaign likely destined to degenerate into a savage attack on one’s honesty, motives, and integrity?

    Of course, when people who would not stoop to such levels run, they often get hammered — and not fighting back gets cast as agreement with the charges. If one gets down in the mud, one becomes what one despises.

    So, what to do? I do indeed struggle with this.

  121. Matthew says:

    What do you guys think would be a sign that house prices are back down to Earth: would sale price in 1999 adjusted for inflation through 2008 (per CPI) be a reasonable price for a home today?

  122. Ben says:

    “The only way to get americans to pay more for american goods is to make foreign goods more expensive.”

    Comrade, there is another way.

    We could just remove all the taxes on American manufacturing companies.

  123. Hard Place says:

    car market dropping like a rock. I know someone who just picked up a used 911 Turbo 4 yrs old 13k miles for 60k on a 150k new car. In the go-go days, this car probably was still valued at 120k.

    Luxury goods are so passe. Wonder what a pair of $300 jeans go for? I think some guy is probably using it as a rag to squeegee cars.

  124. comrade nom deplume says:

    [105] kettle,

    “We as a nation have the government we deserve.”

    This is consistent with my political theory that, in a representative democracy, the people will always end up with a government that, in the aggregate, represents their interests.

    That said, it doesn’t work so well on an individual basis. It also proves Tytler’s theory that a democracy is doomed once the public figures out that it can vote itself largesse from the public fisc.

    Hence my thoughts on expatriation (at least financial expatriation) and the compound, and how to live off of the tax grid (which cannot easily be avoided but can be minimized, and in some places, greatly so).

  125. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    I would not say “we should be so lucky” to get AGI down there, still, it is not going to happen. If there are ANY auto incentives, it should only go to new diesels, that get, what, 80 mpg, or something like that, and plug-in hybrids. Nothing that fails to either reduce our need to import energy, or create industrial capacity to reduce energy needs in the future, or to improve communication/productivity should be in the stimulus plan. We are borrowing from the great grand children, we better do something that benefits them. If we don’t, it will be like taking money out of one’s child’s college fund to go and buy dinner and a movie in order to stimulate the local econlmy.

  126. schabadoo says:

    now as for the cat that showed up on our back porch as a 3 month old kitten and moved into the house. he’s on day 5 of a winter mouse killing spree.

    Yeah, what’s going on? My cats have left two in the last two days.

  127. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (53)-

    We already know how this movie will end.

    O gets bum-rushed by Pelosi & Co, the Repugs take back Congress in the mid-term elections, O faces fierce primary opposition from within his own party (remember, the 2012 campaign begins in less that a year), and the Demohacks go back to the wilderness, en masse, within four years.

    One thing will remain the same, though: the dollar will still be declining and the economy will still be toast.

  128. Shore Guy says:

    “What do you guys think would be a sign that house prices are back down to Earth:”

    I remember the days when RE was not a topic of conversation in the grocery store, at back-yard parties, at cocktail gatherings. Houses were HOMES, and one might talk about someone buying a lake house or putting on an addition but it was not a topic always on the tips of peoples’ tongues. When people stop talking about RE, it will be a sign to me that things are back to where they should be.

  129. Barbara says:

    112.
    Shoreguy,
    I agree with all of this. The math for the difference in cost between a hybrid and a traditional does not work out otherwise, can take 10 years to see returns in fuel savings. Who owna a car for more than 10 years now?

  130. make money says:

    This was brought to my attention ths morning by my (SOB) attorney,

    Assuming that this stimulusackage passes at they give out a refundable tax credit of $15,000K to anyone who buys a house in 2009.

    Let’s say 5 couples decide they want to take advantage of this and purchase a condo by the water in Florida.

    5X15=75K in free money. They put in each 10K and you have 125K in cash. This should come close to buying you something in cash down there.

    Now technically it has to be your residence. So then you insure your cars down there and become exempt from State income taxes since FL does not have a state tax.

    Free vacation home and insurance and tax benefits coming out of your nose.

    Make no mistake about it, this bill will stimulate housing, especially vacation homes.

    It can’t get cheaper then free.

  131. Shore Guy says:

    From CNBC:

    Obama’s Speech on Executive Compensation
    Topics:Barack Obama | White House | Congress | Politics & GovernmentBy: CNBC.com | 04 Feb 2009 | 11:12 AM ET Text Size President Obama kicked off a campaign to rein in corporate compensation with rules limiting executive pay to $500,000 a year for firms getting bailout funds .The following is Obama’s speech on executive compensation.

    Thank you, Tim, for your hard work on this issue and on our economic recovery.

    The economic crisis we face is unlike any we’ve seen in our lifetime. It’s a crisis of falling confidence and rising debt. Of widely distributed risk and narrowly concentrated reward. A crisis written in the fine print of sub-prime mortgages, on the ledger lines of once-mighty financial institutions, and on the pink slips that have upended lives and cost the economy 2.6 million jobs last year alone.

    AP
    Barack Obama
    ——————————————————————————–

    We know that even if we do everything we should, this crisis was years in the making, and it will take more than weeks or months to turn things around.

    But make no mistake:

    A failure to act, and act now, will turn crisis into a catastrophe and guarantee a longer recession, a less robust recovery, and a more uncertain future. Millions more jobs will be lost. More businesses will be shuttered. More dreams will be deferred.

    That’s why I feel such a sense of urgency about the Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Plan that is before Congress today. With it, we can save or create more than three million jobs, doing things that will strengthen our country for generations to come. It is not merely a prescription for short-term spending—it’s a strategy for long-term economic growth in areas like renewable energy, health care, and education.

    Now, in the past few days I’ve heard criticisms of this plan that echo the very same failed theories that helped lead us into this crisis—the notion that tax cuts alone will solve all our problems; that we can ignore fundamental challenges like energy independence and the high cost of health care and still expect our economy and our country to thrive.

    I reject that theory, and so did the American people when they went to the polls in November and voted resoundingly for change. So I urge members of Congress to act without delay. No plan is perfect, and we should work to make it stronger. But let’s not make the perfect the enemy of the essential. Let’s show people all over our country who are looking for leadership in this difficult time that we are equal to the task.

    RELATED LINKS

    Current DateTime: 08:14:23 04 Feb 2009
    LinksList Documentid: 29013181
    Read the President’s Statement
    Poll: Will Pay Caps Work?
    Why Stop With Executives?
    Dimon Defends Paying Bonuses
    Obama to Target CEO Pay
    Pros: Executive Pay Caps are Bad

    At the same time, we know that this Recovery and Reinvestment plan is only the first part of what we need to do to restore prosperity and secure our future. We also need a strong and viable financial system to keep credit flowing to businesses and families alike. My administration will do what it takes to restore our financial system; our recovery depends upon it. And so next week, Secretary Geithner will release a new strategy to get credit moving again—a strategy that will reflect the lessons of past mistakes while laying a foundation for the future.

    But in order to restore our financial system, we’ve got to restore trust. And in order to restore trust, we’ve got to make certain that taxpayer funds are not subsidizing excessive compensation packages on Wall Street.

    We all need to take responsibility. And this includes executives at major financial firms who turned to the American people, hat in hand, when they were in trouble, even as they paid themselves their customary lavish bonuses. As I said last week, that’s the height of irresponsibility. That’s shameful. And that’s exactly the kind of disregard for the costs and consequences of their actions that brought about this crisis: a culture of narrow self-interest and short-term gain at the expense of everything else.

    This is America. We don’t disparage wealth. We don’t begrudge anybody for achieving success. And we believe that success should be rewarded. But what gets people upset—and rightfully so—are executives being rewarded for failure. Especially when those rewards are subsidized by U.S. taxpayers.

    For top executives to award themselves these kinds of compensation packages in the midst of this economic crisis is not only in bad taste—it’s a bad strategy—and I will not tolerate it as President. We’re going to be demanding some restraint in exchange for federal aid—so that when firms seek new federal dollars, we won’t find them up to the same old tricks.

    As part of the reforms we are announcing today, top executives at firms receiving extraordinary help from U.S. taxpayers will have their compensation capped at $500,000—a fraction of the salaries that have been reported recently. And if these executives receive any additional compensation, it will come in the form of stock that can’t be paid up until taxpayers are paid back for their assistance.

    Companies receiving federal aid are going to have to disclose publicly all the perks and luxuries bestowed upon senior executives and provide an explanation to the taxpayers and to shareholders as to why these expenses are justified. And we’re putting a stop to these kinds of massive severance packages we’ve all read about with disgust; we’re taking the air out of the golden parachute.

    We’re asking these firms to take responsibility, to recognize the nature of this crisis and their role in it. We believe that what we’ve laid out should be viewed as fair and embraced as basic common sense.

    Finally, these guidelines we’re putting in place are only the beginning of a long-term effort. We’re going to examine the ways in which the means and manner of executive compensation have contributed to a reckless culture and quarter-by-quarter mentality that in turn have wrought havoc in our financial system. We’re going to be taking a look at broader reforms so that executives are compensated for sound risk management and rewarded for growth measured over years, not just days or weeks.

    We’ve all got to pull together and take our share of responsibility. That’s true here in Washington. That’s true on Wall Street. The American people are carrying a huge burden as a result of this economic crisis: bearing the brunt of its effects as well as the costs of extraordinary measures we’re taking to address it. The American people expect and demand that we pursue policies that reflect the reality of this crisis—and that will prevent these kinds of crises in the future.

    Thank you.

  132. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (65)-

    That sure is a fancy way of saying that they will be keeping two sets of books.

    God help us.

  133. comrade nom deplume says:

    [121] ben

    Yes, however I posit that such a move is an indirect form of protectionism, and I am willing to bet that such a move would trigger a protest from our trading partner nations.

    Further, when you consider that many corporations now pay very little in the way of tax, due to writeoffs, NOLs, etc., there may not be much of a bump there, and it would be offset by the higher costs of doing business, particularly higher labor costs, enviro costs, litigation risk, etc. It isn’t just taxes that drive a business overseas, especially since taxes affect the entire market (there is a saying in tax, that you don’t let the tax tail wag the dog). Rather, it is the overall cost burden of doing business here, from mandated costs to being sued by everyone that thought their potty break wasn’t long enough, or that it violates their civil rights to wear a necktie, or that tried out bungee jumping with the bungee cord they made out of the company’s product (rubber bands).

    That said, whether US status is beneficial depends on the business. For many, it will be. ATEOTD, the companies will assess the tax goodies being tossed out and decide if they are worth it relative to other costs.

  134. Shore Guy says:

    Hold onto your wallets: “let’s not make the perfect the enemy of the essential. ”

    By saying this, B.O. is signaling that the Christmas Tree of a bil working its way to him will get his signature, even if it has massive amounts of imprudent spending in it. This will come back to haunt property owners as the feds see the need to cut aid to localities in order to pay the interest on the money borrowed for no good puropse. How will the municipalities make-up the shortfall. Well, you already know the answer to that good citizens.

  135. JoeR says:

    I’m a little late here, but that Glen Ridge house has kind of a storied history.

    This estate used to be owned by the Reynolds family of aluminum foil fame. A Reynolds heir lived there for many years. It was then sold to a local family who raised their family there (and probably sold when the last one graduated high school).

    After that, a guy named Art bought it and lived there. He was a developer, collected classic cars, and was a freeholder for about 10-12 years back in the 80s. They had some huge blowout bashes and fund raisers at the house. Art had a son (named Art) who went to GRHS.

    Spposedly, another developer had knocked on the door and offered to purchase the house. I would bet that the two knew each other as they were both developers. The guy who purchased it was renovating it (around 2001 or so) and the house ended up burning to the ground.

    This is why it is now a “new” house. It’s also a different looking house – they didn’t rebuild it in the same style.

    Gotta love the $80,000 tax bill though…

  136. Rich In NNJ says:

    SL #115,

    Last I read in the papers need to schedule another public hearing. During the last one the allotted time ran out when they opened it to public questions. They barley made it past the first item on the agenda.
    I don’t know when the next hearing is as it’s not posted on the agenda at the Ridgewood town site.

    Rich

  137. Shore Guy says:

    “What do you guys think would be a sign that house prices are back down to Earth:”

    I remember the days when RE was not a topic of conversation in the grocery store, at back-yard parties, at c0cktail gatherings. Houses were HOMES, and one might talk about someone buying a lake house or putting on an addition but it was not a topic always on the tips of peoples’ tongues. When people stop talking about RE, it will be a sign to me that things are back to where they should be.

  138. Rich In NNJ says:

    SL #115,

    Actually, the next public meeting is scheduled for February 10, 8 PM.

    Rich

  139. Clotpoll says:

    make (85)-

    GS dilute their common shareholders? They’d never do that…

    Would they?

    Bwahahahahaha!

  140. still_looking says:

    Rich, 134, 136

    Thanks! [Not that I’m looking to buy anytime soon….. I should change my handle but….why bother. Right now my main theme color is apathy.]

    sl

  141. make money says:

    this guy kristopolos is interviewwing well for a SEC job this morning!

  142. make money says:

    marcopolos that is.

  143. still_looking says:

    That is, unless Clot et al can find me a small reasonably priced farmette with reasonable taxes…..

    ….in Costa Rica.

    sl

  144. still_looking says:

    mm140

    “marcopolos that is.”

    Yeah, “Marco-Polo” is right.

    Good luck finding where the money went.

    sl

  145. Hard Place says:

    Now technically it has to be your residence. So then you insure your cars down there and become exempt from State income taxes since FL does not have a state tax.

    Free vacation home and insurance and tax benefits coming out of your nose.

    Make no mistake about it, this bill will stimulate housing, especially vacation homes.

    It can’t get cheaper then free.

    make money – sounds like it works great until you get in a car accident and the insurance company invalidates your insurance because you are not an actual resident of the state. than the person sues you and takes your FL home and NJ home. I’ve always wondered about the technicality of declaring permanent residency in a state that you own a home, however spend very little time. I’m neither a lawyer or accountant, so i don’t know the answer. Just sounds like it is a nice arrangement until the SHTF.

  146. HEHEHE says:

    Make,

    “Now technically it has to be your residence. So then you insure your cars down there and become exempt from State income taxes since FL does not have a state tax.”

    You may want to ask Jeter how that worked out for him

    http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory?id=4243762

  147. Sean says:

    After reading the latest O’Bama speech I now believe we will hit 20% unemployment in the U.S. sometime early next year, and DC may very well be on fire literally, we may not make it to the mid term elections.

  148. Sean says:

    Markopolos (Madoff whistleblower) testifying in the House, tearing everyone to piece

    SEC, NASD, FINRA all corrupt and incompetent

    Pay for play for municipal bonds in Massachusetts

    NY times is live blogging it.

    http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/live-blogging-the-houses-madoff-hearing/

  149. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (119)-

    I am still alarmed at how infrequently armed revolution is discussed as a real and viable option.

  150. kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    “I struggle with this whole issue. It is said that evil emerges when good people stand by and do nothing. I think that the same thing may be true of bad government; it emerges when the folks who should serve in elected office for at least some period do not run.”

    The issue is not that there are not technically and ethically qualified people in our nation to run the government. The issue is that the general public has become so inured to mindless entertainment outright scorns intelligence and breadth of knowledge.

    When the average joe no longer has any real interest in the critical matters of running a nation, and who wins an election boils down to simple character assassination and propaganda, Then righteous leaders have little hope of actually leading such a rabble.

    In this case no matter how good your intentions, they are pointless and almost worthless unless the general population shares those ideas to at least some minor degree. They do not. the average joe has taken wall streets lessons to heart. get yours at all cost and screw anyone in your way.

  151. Clotpoll says:

    sl (141)-

    I can refer you. I actually have a contact on both the Atlantic & Pacific coasts.

    Several clients of mine did the Costa Rica thing back in ’04. None of the SOBs told me their real reasons, though.

    One of them said the climate was better for his arthritis.

    I shoulda known you don’t expatriate just because of joint pain.

  152. kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    not an endorsement, just sharing an article

    The whole world is rioting, but why not America?

    …..Even the congressional commission charged with overseeing key parts of the banking bailout can’t get answers to basic questions like “who’s getting what?” Americans are rightfully angry about that state of affairs, but with a few small exceptions, quietly so. Why? It depends on whom you ask. In a 2006 interview with Harper’s, Barack Obama shared a subtle, but rather fundamental observation about America’s political culture: “Since the founding,” he said, “the American political tradition has been reformist, not revolutionary.” If there is to be positive change, Obama has argued, it must be gradual; “brick by brick,” as he put it in one of his final campaign speeches. Mark Ames, author of Going Postal: Rage, Murder, and Rebellion — From Reagan’s Workplaces to Clinton’s Columbine and Beyond, argues that Americans have been beaten down to a degree that they’re now a pacified population, largely willing to accept any economic outrage its elites impose on them. In a 2005 interview with AlterNet, Ames said the “slave mentality” is stronger in the U.S. than elsewhere, “in part because no other country on earth has so successfully crushed every internal rebellion.”……..

    http://www.commodityonline.com/news/The-whole-world-is-rioting-but-why-not-America-14826-2-1.html

  153. John says:

    The average joe is a deadbeat who uses more services than he pays in taxes. Thye stupid rich who made bad investments are going to raise their taxes to the moon to bail out this stuff. The 55 year old laid off GM worker ain’t never going to pay a nickle in Fed Taxes again so he does not have much reason to care.

  154. kettle1 says:

    Nom,

    every day that goes by makes me think a Costa Rica / Belize compound might make more sense. you can still have a dual purpose compound, vacation and bugout…

  155. Hard Place says:

    HEHEHE says:
    February 4, 2009 at 11:45 am
    Make,

    “Now technically it has to be your residence. So then you insure your cars down there and become exempt from State income taxes since FL does not have a state tax.”

    You may want to ask Jeter how that worked out for him

    http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory?id=4243762

    HEHEHE –
    Thanks for the article. Got my answer right here.

    Jeter was given notice a year ago. The case became public after Administrative Law Judge Timothy Alston issued an order in November telling tax officials to furnish Jeter with more detail about their claims that Tampa, Fla., was no longer his home. Alston also said the burden of proof was on the state.

    Sounds like a potential headache, but if you have the money to hire the lawyers, than it may be worth it.

  156. still_looking says:

    CLot 149

    Pros and cons? All of them from taxes, health care, local environment, endemic diseases. Are schools okay or am I stuck here til my tot is 18?

    sl

  157. #147 – Clot – For many it is an unthinkable option. For others it is probably best left unspoken, for the moment.

  158. still_looking says:

    sigh.

    we ever having another GTG?

    sl

  159. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (150)-

    Damn. And to think: I thought I was the one who coined the phrase, “burn the shit down”.

    Now, I’m depressed.

  160. lisoosh says:

    Shore – you know I love you….but

    1. Obama has been Pres for the grand total of less than 2 weeks. First day on the job he stepped into a big vat of quicksand mixed with steaming dung.
    He may prove in the end to be bad, good, rotten or fabulous, I have no way of knowing and neither do you based on the situation and limited time frame. Calm down please.

    2. You made good. Congrats. Through hard work and perseverence and good sense you and yours have done well. You grew up and lived in a country that allowed you to do that. Why are you always complaining about what you are not “getting” from the gov. So what if others “get” more? You could have been born in a poor village in Sierra Leone and kidnapped to work in a mine, or the drug trade as a young kid. Things could be worse. Enjoy your life.

  161. Clotpoll says:

    sl (154)-

    Dunno. I referred these guys down there; I didn’t research it for them.

    I do know that all of them did a lot of due diligence & none of them have come back. Nor- judging from their occasional e-mails to me- do they have any intention of ever returning.

    The one thing I constantly hear is that CR’s really like Americans.

  162. Victorian says:

    Clot (147) –
    “I am still alarmed at how infrequently armed revolution is discussed as a real and viable option.”

    Jon Stewart mentioned pitchforks on his show yesterday.

  163. still_looking says:

    vic 160, clot,

    I guess quality of life here hasn’t gotten bad enough for people to start rioting yet. Bread and circuses to keep the status quo.

    sl

  164. Rich In NNJ says:

    RE: #155 GTG,

    It’s time for a Bergen County GTG!!!

    Rich

  165. zieba says:

    Equipment for the compound:

    http://www.shnoop.com/

    50+8 shipping to NJ.

  166. kettle1 says:

    Re revolution

    Anyone who seriously considers such activitiess had best also seriously consider the consequences.

    The recent changes to US laws and rights now mean that you could be held without trial for the rest of your life as an enemy combatant if the government so chooses.

    And dont forget forget to weak you tinfoil jump suit for when they break out the ADS (Active Denial System)

  167. Seneca says:

    agreeing with kettle

    >>…take no pleasure in seeing families suffer
    >>…. but we also refuse to protect them from their own mistakes

    I feel vindicated but haven’t been screaming “rejoice, rejoice!”

    A lot of people told me I was nuts to not buy in ’04, ’05, ’06 even when mortgage lenders were looking to put me in a 7-figure house. I thought they were nuts and of course now, I realize they were just greedy.

    Even vindication ain’t so sweet though. I will be footing the bill in taxes to help those who got in over their head and the financial wizards who masterminded the whole thing.

  168. lisoosh says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 4, 2009 at 12:08 pm

    “The one thing I constantly hear is that CR’s really like Americans.”

    Will that still be the case when swarms of Americans descend?

  169. Clotpoll says:

    lisoosh (158)-

    “Obama has been Pres for the grand total of less than 2 weeks. First day on the job he stepped into a big vat of quicksand mixed with steaming dung.”

    With all due respect, here’s my problem with the above:

    1. Instead of appearing to be revolted by the quicksand/dung combo, O appears to be getting nice and comfy in it.

    2. Unless O quickly realizes that when you fall into quicksand, the only way out is for someone to help you by throwing you a line and pulling you out, he is doomed to sink. The millions who voted for O need to somehow now figure out that he’s not going to save the country. In fact, the country must now save him.

    Unfortunately, the millions who voted for this guy are now back to watching American Idol and waiting, somewhat impatiently, for their own steaming hot, pan-sized, personal 8″ bailouts…served hot, within 12 minutes or less.

  170. #150 – Mark Ames… argues that Americans have been beaten down to a degree that they’re now a pacified population, largely willing to accept any economic outrage its elites impose on them.

    I didn’t know Ames had a new book out. I’ll have to get it. Once you get past the metric ton of hyperbole he uses he has some interesting things to say. I don’t always agree with his conclusions, but they are interesting all the same.

    Matt Taibi, his former stablemate form The Exile has written some great stuff on the election.

  171. Clotpoll says:

    soosh (166)-

    Is it ever?

    Do the folks in Venice ever like the Germans in August?

  172. #160 – I saw that as well. The surprising part was Stewart wasn’t all that jokey about it.
    I did see the show at around 2am, so my sleepiness may have affected my interpretation.

  173. Victorian says:

    Confessions of a Mortgage Fraudster –
    Must Read! (At least for the entertainment value).

    http://www.triduanum.com/memo.pdf

  174. kettle1 says:

    Shore

    if you run for office, can i be on your staff? I’ll be your technical advisor.

  175. Outofstater says:

    Preaching to the choir here, but those who understand the concept of personal responsibility also understand that actions have consequences. The problem now is that some people understand neither and want to remain truly untouched by any unpleasantness, blissfully unaware that they themselves may be at fault.

  176. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (170)-

    Imagine the fun of setting up a hard perimeter around that joint…

  177. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (173)-

    I can run point on his 2nd Amendment policy position.

  178. AntiTrump says:

    #62:

    BW: That was a moving speech. I am in tears. It’s called being short my friend. There are many smart people who stood in the sidelines and didn’t get caught up in the real estate mania. Our joy is not from seeing the Senior VP in Lehman stand in line in the soup kitchen. Our happiness is from seeing home prices decline to a level that makes it affordable for the majority and not just for the people who have no sense of financial disciple.

    I hope the poor soul from Lehman is atleast able to put his family in something like a three or four bedroom 4000 sq ft house.

  179. John says:

    New boss is same as the old boss. This 500K is just a way to sedate the masses before TARP II rolls out at end of month. Go long TARP II company bonds now at 70 cents on a dollar and watch Uncle O pay you back at par.

  180. pricedOut says:

    Good post Mr. Clotpoll:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 4, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    lisoosh (158)-

    “Obama has been Pres for the grand total of less than 2 weeks. First day on the job he stepped into a big vat of quicksand mixed with steaming dung.”

    With all due respect, here’s my problem with the above:

    1. Instead of appearing to be revolted by the quicksand/dung combo, O appears to be getting nice and comfy in it.

    2. Unless O quickly realizes that when you fall into quicksand, the only way out is for someone to help you by throwing you a line and pulling you out, he is doomed to sink. The millions who voted for O need to somehow now figure out that he’s not going to save the country. In fact, the country must now save him.

    Unfortunately, the millions who voted for this guy are now back to watching American Idol and waiting, somewhat impatiently, for their own steaming hot, pan-sized, personal 8″ bailouts…served hot, within 12 minutes or less.

  181. kettle1 says:

    Nom

    This is consistent with my political theory that, in a representative democracy, the people will always end up with a government that, in the aggregate, represents their interests.

    I agree, this is essentially the bottom up concept of change.

  182. renter says:

    MLS ID # 5441616 is listed at 489,700. It is also for available for rent at $2,500.

    How would all of you work backwards from the rent price (assuming it is a reasonable market amount) to find what you think the house should cost?

  183. Shore Guy says:

    “He may prove in the end to be bad, good, rotten or fabulous, I have no way of knowing and neither do you based on the situation and limited time frame. Calm down please.”

    I disagree. Most of what any president accomplishes — especially in challenging times — occurs in the first few months in office. We have a situation, not unlike TARP, where our government seems intent on pushing through massive bills filled with massive spending with little deliberation. The time to act is NOW.

    “2. You made good. Congrats. Through hard work and perseverence and good sense you and yours have done well. You grew up and lived in a country that allowed you to do that. Why are you always complaining about what you are not “getting” from the gov. So what if others “get” more?”

    I want nothing fromthe government beyond its essential functions. Likewise, I do not want people to go homeless, hungry, or without essential medical or dental care. Tht said, it is time to stop bailing out those who make poor economic choices. Capitalism is tough, and it imposes stiff penalties on people sometimes. Unless we let it work we end up in a royal mess.

  184. kettle1 says:

    renter,

    1 quick rule of thumb is a home price historically averages about 20X annual rent.

    for the 489K home that would mean that rent would be about 2400/month.

    That of course assumes that the home price is not inflated……..

  185. kettle1 says:

    Renter,

    look at what the 2002 – 2004 price of the home might be and calculate from that

  186. Alap says:

    185- 2400 x 12 months = $28,800 x 20 = $576,000

  187. ruggles says:

    182-first you have to determine if the rent ask price is comp to other rentals in the neighborhood

  188. kettle1 says:

    anyone see this from Mish

    For Dec 2008 the CS-CPI fell to a stunning negative 5.0% year-over-year as compared to a positive 0.1% for the CPI-U. Moreover, the Government OER data continues to move higher while home prices continue to move lower amplifying the divergence between the two CPIs to its largest level ever. The CS-CPI now reflects a price level last seen in Dec 2006.

    What is equally amazing is that it was less than 2 1/2 years ago (Sep 2005) when the CS-CPI was positive 7.8% year-over-year and we’re now 1280 basis points lower. Deflation is here and it’s now even beginning to show in the government’s CPI-U data.

  189. SG says:

    Facing foreclosure? Don’t leave. Squat

    Marcy Kaptur of Ohio is the longest-serving Democratic congresswoman in U.S. history.

    She is recommending a radical foreclosure solution from the floor of the U.S. Congress: “So I say to the American people, you be squatters in your own homes. Don’t you leave.”

    The banks foreclosing on families very often can’t locate the actual loan note that binds the homeowner to the bad loan. “Produce the note,” Kaptur recommends those facing foreclosure demands of the banks.

    ‘This is contract law. The mortgage is a contract. I am one party. There is another party. What are my legal rights under the law as a property owner?’ “If you look at the bad paper, if you look at where there’s trouble, 95 to 98 percent of the paper really has moved to five institutions: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wachovia, Citigroup and HSBC. They have this country held by the neck.”

  190. kettle1 says:

    alap,

    i rounded loose and fast. did 489K/200

    489K/20/12 = 2037

  191. chicagofinance says:

    OK: Linda and I have decided on a new place. We found a 4BR rental in Colts Neck. Bargained down the rent 15% off the ask. We locked the rent in on a 36 month lease with no increases. We move 3/1.

    So, we move from Middletown to Colts Neck, get an extra bedroom, get 50% more sq. footage, drop our rent 7% from previous, and lock-in the rent for 3 years. Good deal?

  192. Clotpoll says:

    SG (190)-

    Things are getting interesting now.

    ChiFi (193)-

    Wannabe.

  193. maplewoodian says:

    Picking up this house looks liek an extreme case. It is a comparable for no one here. One expects such extravagant houses to go down. It says nothing for NJ housing or Glen Ridge for that matter.

    I am all for a correction but please do not give the wrong impression. It hasn’t happened yet.

    Pick real comparables, if you find them, that is.

  194. Clotpoll says:

    maplewoodian (196)-

    First, we get the bromide (a flurry of posts a few days ago) that luxury housing didn’t have the same kind of run-up in appreciation as “normal” housing did during the boom.

    Now, you kindly inform us that we can now expect such “extravagant” housing to go down. My assumption is that the “correction” to which you refer as having not happened yet would be in the price range of the home you currently own.

    How convenient. As always, where you sit is where you stand.

    Unless you can somehow convince us that house is a Sahara-like illusion of an oasis- and that we should dismount our camels and have a drink of water- that damn house IS a comp.

    You can’t cherry-pick this stuff. It is what it is.

  195. Clotpoll says:

    There is also a “first” house in every price range that starts the falling dominoes of declining comps.

    Can’t ignore that fact, either.

  196. kettle1 says:

    Regarding the article i posted yesterday on the FDIC new credit line of 100 billion with the treasury:

    Does anyone actually think thats enough? Citi alone currently holds about 600 billion in US deposits and more then 1 trillion in total global deposits.

    I would imagine that the US gov would use some sort of backdoor method to bailout foreign deposits as well. otherwise foriegners wouldnt touch city anymore and they would be toast.

    Oh and how about JPMorgan? They have 700 billion in deposits, about 1.8 trillion in assets (by who’s accounting?) and 77 trillion in derivative exposure

  197. John says:

    already bored with the new one term president. can’t wait to vote for our new republican president in 2012

    BTW the lowest sale in your town is your new comp.

  198. Clotpoll says:

    I’d say the USG is “backdooring” us on just about a daily basis:

    “I would imagine that the US gov would use some sort of backdoor method to bailout foreign deposits as well.”

  199. Clotpoll says:

    77 trillion? I thought JPM’s derivatives exposure was more like 89 trill.

    They’re making progress!

  200. Clotpoll says:

    John (200)-

    Why wait four years? If the Repugs can get back Congress in the midterms, we can impeach him.

    We need a good show trial right about now.

  201. veto says:

    where is john today? just bought some citi 3 yr sub notes 8.5% yield on the big bang news…

  202. make money says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ap.iU9iqfn20&refer=us

    This is alarming to me. Not sur eif it was posted yet.

  203. whocares says:

    #128 MM: The 15k credit is only for a primary residence.

  204. Rentl0rd says:

    chifi, whats the actual rent if I may ask?

  205. Zack says:

    #205

    They provide housing to 18MM homeless people free of cost. Its a good thing.

  206. ricky_nu says:

    #182 –

    Rule of thumb – I remember talking to a realtor in 1997, and the multiple to buy at was 11-12 years of rent, not 20. She was a rental income property owner at the time, and that is where she woudl buy. It

    I am assuming that the rent roll multiple increased as the bubble filled. That type of multiple put that house at $300k.

  207. David says:

    #197, #198 Clot,

    The point is there are basically no comps in that range in that town. It’s not representative of the town and its price action has nothing to do with the trains/schools.

  208. HEHEHE says:

    Here he goes with the Paulson talk:

    “Obama: Catastrophe coming if Congress doesn’t act”

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090204/ap_on_bi_ge/congress_stimulus

  209. Clotpoll says:

    David (210)-

    The absence of comps is- in and of itself- a comp.

    I also know p0rnography when I see it.

  210. Victorian says:

    Timmy is not very good at this PPT thing, is he?

  211. whocares says:

    #186 2004 = bubble price year.

  212. John says:

    You the man. Call me crazy but I bought 25 year Citi bonds today at 62 cents on the dollar with a 6% coupon. I usually like to stay short but when it is under 70 cents on a dollar and still has an A rating I am willing to go long.

    Just for stupid fun I also bought a Unisys bond with a 42% yield, I got lucky with a 40% genworth bond and my GMAC bonds a few months ago so what the heck.
    I also bought this one today.
    CITIGROUP INC SUB NT 5.00000% 09/15/2014
    Price (Ask) 77.375
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 10.434%

    This also looks good for giggles, but I have some already.
    CIT GROUP INC INTERNOTES BOOK 4.95000% 05/15/2013 CALL
    Price (Ask) 56.100
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 21.022%

    veto says:
    February 4, 2009 at 1:29 pm
    where is john today? just bought some citi 3 yr sub notes 8.5% yield on the big bang news…

  213. David says:

    #212 Clot…what?

  214. Hard Place says:

    NYC on sale!

    New units sell Costco-style

    http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/new-units-sell-costco-style-13

    For anyone that read my post from a couple days ago about NYC apts being sold at 50% discount. Here is the scoop. NYC will crash this year. This is the albatross in the coal mine.

  215. kettle1 says:

    CLot,

    My mistake, JPM has 80+ trillion in derivatives.

    see page 22 of 33

    http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-152a.pdf

    the next closest bank is BOA at 38 trillion in derivatives

  216. Ben says:

    205, make money

    “A record 19 million U.S. homes stood empty at the end of 2008 and homeownership fell to an eight-year low”

    This is what happens when you try to fix prices. Fix em above the market value, and you get a excess surplus unsold. Fix them too low, and you get shortages. You would think 19 million empty homes would mean that no one in this country would be homeless. No, the government has to come in and f up the party. I’ll buy one of those houses, just as long as you let the price come down to where it should be. I’m sure everyone else on this blog would as well.

  217. comrade nom deplume says:

    [193] Chifi

    You’re a financial planner with degrees from an Ivy League school and U of C. I expected no less.

  218. Clotpoll says:

    It just keeps getting better:

    “While the SEC is incompetent, the securities industry’s self-policing organization, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, is “very corrupt,” Markopolos charged. That organization was headed until December by Mary Schapiro, President Barack Obama’s new SEC chief.”

  219. John says:

    This one is also good for giggles, 10K bond at $3,400.

    LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES INC 6.45000% 03/15/2029 DEB
    Price (Ask) 34.320
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 19.667%

  220. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (218)-

    After 70 trill, who’s counting pennies?

  221. Clotpoll says:

    David (216)-

    Think about it; the lack of a solid colume of closed transactions in a price range speaks volumes about both the current health and future viability of that price range.

    Whenever I’m comping properties and can’t develop a solid list of recent comps, that alone leads me to devalue the subject property.

    Working from that theory has never failed me in pricing.

  222. Clotpoll says:

    colume = volume

  223. yikes says:

    dow down … could be in the 7800s by close …

  224. renter says:

    Thanks everyone..

  225. make money says:

    Clot,

    I saw that and now I’m thinking Obama is on the hot seat. This guy can’t put a gov’t together with people who can keep the closet door closed for more then a few days.

  226. Clotpoll says:

    Burn, burn, burn! Burn the m-f’er down, and start over.

  227. John says:

    chifi, what are you buying this week?

  228. BC Bob says:

    “This guy can’t put a gov’t together with people who can keep the closet door closed for more then a few days.”

    He should appoint every politician. Proceeds to TARP.

  229. David says:

    #226 Clot,

    Fair enough, but it doesn’t really address my point, which is that (a) Glen Ridge is not really a 3M+ town, and what happens with a special property 6x the median price isn’t representative of the town, and (b) things like trains and schools which are purported to shore up values for middle class homes have nothing to do with this house. So the original post is disingenuous.

  230. spam spam bacon spam says:

    HUNTERDON COUNTY GET TOGETHER

    I CALL IT.

    (caps off now)

    Clot calls the restaurant though.
    (I think Tiffany’s on Rt 31 has a big enough bar, but I avoid the restaurant: service terrible, food is gack.)

  231. yikes says:

    DW –

    I have to echo some of what is said. those who did the right thing – saved the 20% downpayment, and acted prudently with their finances are being punished.

    but before you run from the board in anger, i will say this – you will find some great, great information on this site (i’m not affiliated with it at all.) i found this site after i bought a flip in 2005. by 2006 in the fall this site was saying that the market was overheated and a major crash was coming – and i got lucky and sold my flip for a nice profit.

    guys who bought my house (in another state) – not so lucky. but several posters on this site also have been right on point with ETFs and gold, and i have followed those to profit as well.

    lotta good info here, man.

  232. veto says:

    John says “call me crazy but I bought 25 year Citi bonds today at 62 cents on the dollar”

    you’ve been screaming bank bonds for months like a risk-seeking mad man, finally convinced that you were onto something geniuous all along… this thing will take decades to play out, even if the whole world goes belly up tomorrow they’d push off any recognition of the fact to at least 2025 using endless assortment of tricks…

  233. SG says:

    spam spam bacon spam says:
    HUNTERDON COUNTY GET TOGETHER

    I will come.

  234. Seneca says:

    I might be in love:

    Markopolos testimony:

    “If you flew the entire S.E.C. staff to Fenway Park, they wouldn’t be able to find first base.”

    … this guy is like a Greek Giuliani circa his US Attorney days (only he was trying to PROTECT the Russian mob from Madoff and please don’t kill him for it fellas).

  235. Clotpoll says:

    spammy (235)-

    Can’t rule out Tiff’s. They had a great bat-swinging, broken-bottle fight there a few weeks ago.

    The bartenders there will also serve you until you fall down. I found this out by watching them do it to a friend of mine.

    Who says we can’t party in Hunterdon?

  236. Clotpoll says:

    Clinton House, anyone?

    The bar starts serving at 9 AM, and you only need to have one or two teeth to get red-carpet service.

  237. Clotpoll says:

    David (234)-

    Watch out. I take being called disingenuous as a compliment.

  238. yikes says:

    make money says:
    February 4, 2009 at 11:22 am

    This was brought to my attention ths morning by my (SOB) attorney,

    Assuming that this stimulusackage passes at they give out a refundable tax credit of $15,000K to anyone who buys a house in 2009.

    if your attorney has any power, please tell him to make this happen. i’d love this.

  239. BC Bob says:

    “If you flew the entire S.E.C. staff to Fenway Park, they wouldn’t be able to find first base.”

    I would imagine that locating the Cask ‘n Flagon would not be a problem.

  240. afe says:

    234 – David

    So do you know of any 3mm dollar towns in new jersey where this statement would not be disingenuous?

  241. still_looking says:

    Rich in NNJ’s got dibs already on the Bergen County GTG….

    sl

  242. still_looking says:

    Clot 240 “Who says we can’t party in Hunterdon?”

    Just don’t end up in my trauma bay…. :) Some nurses really really dig placing foley catheters.

    sl

  243. veto says:

    Oops freudian slip…

    From Times Online, February 4, 2009
    Gordon Brown suggests world heading for a ‘depression’
    Gordon Brown appeared to acknowledge for the first time today that the world economy was heading for a 1930s-style “depression”.

    The term “depression” refers to sustained recessions characterised by high unemployment and a severe lack of business confidence rather than regular cyclical downturns. It has not been used by British policymakers during the current downturn except by way of warning and comparison with the Great Depression of the early 1930s.

    Only two days ago, Stephen Timms, the Treasury Financial Secretary, suggested in the Commons that the UK could be facing economic conditions as harsh as in the Great Depression. Mr Timms warned the country was “facing some of the harshest economic conditions for decades, perhaps for a century”.

    George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, demanded clarification of the Prime Minister’s use of the D-word. “The Prime Minister must personally and urgently clarify whether his statement today that the world is in ‘depression’ was a slip of the tongue, or whether he knows something that we don’t know,” he said. “For the sake of confidence he should clear up this confusion. Prime Ministers in particular need to be very careful about their use of language to ensure they don’t undermine confidence.”

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5660573.ece

  244. Clotpoll says:

    BC (244)-

    Or the water cooler and coffee machine.

  245. kettle1 says:

    i think i lost what little faith i had left in the amerucan populous after eading this

    …..Specifically, we are gathered in the Chapel of Love, sandwiched between a LensCrafters and a Bloomingdale’s and tucked into a relatively quiet corner of the vast prairie of retail and amusements that is the Mall of America.

    It’s a convenient starting point for rethinking the 50-year marriage between the American shopper and the American mall. Because we’ve been married to the mall for so long that some of us are now getting married in the mall — 5,000 couples in this chapel since it opened 10 years ago.

    And one recent Sunday afternoon, Brianna and Jesse Bergmann are standing here under a white wedding arch, beside an ordained minister, having promised to cherish each other in sickness and in health. There was a homily about forgiveness, an exchange of vows and finally a kiss and some applause.

    Before everyone heads past the Foot Locker and down the escalator to the Rainforest Cafe, the bride — a cherubic 19-year-old — leans against a wall in her billowy white dress and explains why she chose this spot for her big day.

    “I love shopping,” she says, giggling. “Mostly clothing. I love Macy’s, Aero’s, American Eagle, Maurice’s.”

    “I come with her when she shops,” says her husband, a 21-year-old who loads pallets in a food warehouse, “so she doesn’t spend too much.”……

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/business/01mall.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

  246. David says:

    #242 Clot, did you make the original post? Regardless, if I accidently complimented you I apologize.

  247. Clotpoll says:

    sl (247)-

    It’d take three nurses to handle that job with me.

    There are a lot of different ways you can interpret that.

  248. Clotpoll says:

    David (251)-

    I don’t even remember. We started happy hour a little early here today.

  249. yikes says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 4, 2009 at 11:47 am

    Shore (119)-

    I am still alarmed at how infrequently armed revolution is discussed as a real and viable option.

    big fear is that the wrong mob doesn’t take over.

  250. Hard Place says:

    Seneca – this guy is just letting it rip on the SEC. I love the 3,500 chicken comment.

  251. grim says:

    David,

    Take it for what it is worth, it is a single data point. If it doesn’t apply to you, it doesn’t apply. But don’t think there aren’t others here to whom it does apply.

  252. David says:

    #245 afe, I haven’t liven in NJ all that long. But I would say that in a town that had a median sales price closer to 3M+, like Alpine (6.25M) or Essex Fells (1.9M), buyers would take the good schools as a given and be indifferent about trains. There are other factors supporting (or not supporting) these prices.

  253. chicagofinance says:

    Rentl0rd says:
    February 4, 2009 at 1:39 pm
    chifi, whats the actual rent if I may ask?

    Rent: I am not going to disclose it publicly. I already noted it privately to several people.

    Basically for two reasons, #1 in would be imprudent, #2 I think my wife would feel it would be a violation of her privacy…..I don’t think it is too hard to figure out the rough area of what the number is. Then probably drop about 10% off the number. The key for more was the 3 year lease and lock.

  254. yikes says:

    Alap says:
    February 4, 2009 at 12:49 pm

    185- 2400 x 12 months = $28,800 x 20 = $576,000

    i like this math.

  255. David says:

    liven? lived.

    #258 grim, I’m not sure what you mean. I’m questioning whether your data point applies to the town, not to me or any other individual.

  256. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (261)-

    You’ll really like this:

    In a down market (when a prudent investor should be buying), the potential one month rental price should not exceed 1% of the market value of the house.

    My pops never violated this rule when buying residential investment property. Not even once.

    $2,400 monthly rent = $240,000 value

  257. John says:

    veto, I bet that when and if citi gets nationalized they will make bondholders whole and cruch common and pref shareholders. Citi is selling crown jewels like crazy to stay afloat and I think the end result will be a much smaller banking only citi where its share price is in the dumps for a decade or more. Citi was the one bank whose bonds I did not buy till this week when it hit 10% yield. They were in as deep as the smaller banks but their brandname kept the bond price up for a year past it deserved. I am also hoping that the bill passes to allow companies to buy their own bonds that are below par and not have to claim the difference as income right away. If that happens it puts a floor under bond prices as anytime a company has bonds below 80 cents they can just buy them back and make an instant 20+ plus profit. They seemed to have already fixed the muni bond market for now so I am on to corporates. When they fix that I am on to prefs and then to common.

  258. yikes says:

    no i won’t, clot!

    ah, who cares, world is ending in dec 2012, anyway

    John says:
    February 4, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    already bored with the new one term president. can’t wait to vote for our new republican president in 2012

    anybody put palin

  259. comrade nom deplume says:

    [244] BC

    ” would imagine that locating the Cask ‘n Flagon would not be a problem.”

    Never was for me!!!!

  260. afe says:

    david – so are you saying it would be a comp killer in a place like essex fells or alpine?

  261. Sybarite says:

    268

    I think he’s iterating his version of “it’s different here.”

  262. John says:

    Dollars to donuts throw a lowball in there near closing and when the new puppet president throws up some stimulus next week get out and this zombie with rock in roll.

    Clotpoll says:
    February 4, 2009 at 3:08 pm
    BAC-H (preferred) entering the zombie zone:

    http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BAC-H

  263. Ben says:

    Speaking of school districts, this is getting pathetic.

    N.J. School Report Card results show high failure rates for middle schoolers

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/tough_new_state_tests_spur_hig.html

    “Upwards of 40 percent of the 5th and 6th graders statewide failed the language arts tests, and roughly one-quarter of them failed the math test. The results were part of the annual School Report Card and assessment statistics released today by state Department of Education.”

    Let me guess, they need more money? Can we do away with tenure already? I would be willing to teach without tenure. If the NJEA has so much confidence in their teachers, get rid of tenure and let them prove themselves for once! These results prove we are training an generation of unskilled labor. These standardized tests they have them taking are watered down and they are failing them at record levels. The sad part is, they will all go to college.

  264. Clotpoll says:

    John (270)-

    Sorry. I don’t do corpses.

    I bet you can hit dat, though.

    Just pretend it’s an onion.

  265. Clotpoll says:

    Ben, is our children learning?

  266. comrade nom deplume says:

    [271]

    I is a NJ high school graduate. I are smart.

    I’s gonna go to Rutgers.

  267. JoeR says:

    re:236 Yikes

    I was prudent. I saved up and put 20% down when I purchased my house.

    However, after purchasing, I took out a HELOC and withdrew that 20% down payment. My house is now technically 100% financed. I still have that 20% that I took out of my house at prime-1.01% (2.24%) currently earning 3.5%. Not a great money maker, but I’m happy to have the cash available for emergencies. I just hope that if I do need it, I’ll be able to withdraw it.

  268. PGC says:

    Is there anything they won’t sue over?

    http://apnews.myway.com//article/20090204/D964R1Q80.html

    EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) – A New Jersey congressman is demanding an investigation after Bruce Springsteen fans were unable to buy tickets from Ticketmaster’s Web site – which then promptly offered them more expensive tickets from a subsidiary.

    U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell of Paterson wants the Federal Trade Commission and Justice Department to investigate possible conflicts of interest involving Ticketmaster and a ticket reseller it owns, TicketsNow.

    When tickets for Springsteen’s Meadowlands show went on sale Monday, some fans got an error message on their computer screen that shut them out from buying tickets. A TicketsNow ad offered tickets for hundreds of dollars more than face value.

    A Ticketmaster spokesman says only a few fans reported problems.

  269. PGC says:

    #276 in mod

    Must be the reference to T1cketmiser

  270. kettle1 says:

    Re schools

    My son is about 2. i can already see the difference between kids from different families when a large group gets together who all have kids at about the same age.

    There are 2 main groups. One group could be called the readers, and the other called the watchers. The watchers (those raised plopped infront of a TV) definitely outnumber the readers.

  271. David says:

    #268, afe, I’m not disputing the “comp killer” aspect of the post. It’s an overpriced house deservedly taking a big haircut. What I don’t agree with is the notion that the typical middle classs train/school selling points apply to this particular property, or that because the price of this property fell the train/school selling points of this particular town–full of 500k homes–are now invalid. I think this was clearly implied in the original post.

    I’ve made the point now 3 times and nobody cares to address it directly. The echo chamber here is impenetrable.

  272. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (277)-

    That’s the way the PTB like it.

    Good little drones. Next step will be to put some weight on their bones. Can’t give ’em enough of that good HFCS.

  273. whocares says:

    #274 Do not knock Rutgers, lot’s of bright kids go there as well as morons. That is the same as any other college/university.

    Why do we always knock our own?

    I would take Rutgers any day over an institution located in the middle of no where.

  274. Clotpoll says:

    David (278)-

    I think the topic has been screwed into the ground.

  275. Clotpoll says:

    Pisc@taway is my definition of nowhere.

  276. John says:

    necrophilla is hot, you gotta convert. Bang the corpse and let Dr. O bring it back to life and get out, repeat as needed. Financials and Fundementals are for fools, I use the mentalist approach. Got to be in the head of the other person.

    Clotpoll says:
    February 4, 2009 at 3:29 pm
    John (270)-

    Sorry. I don’t do corpses.

    I bet you can hit dat, though.

    Just pretend it’s an onion.

  277. Clotpoll says:

    “Got to be in the head of the other person.”

    Here’s a visual that may require repeated Knob Creeks to erase.

  278. kettle1 says:

    interesting read, echo’s some of our discussions

    It’s Not Going to Be OK

    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20090202_its_not_going_to_be_ok/

  279. Clotpoll says:

    mentalist approach…

    must…fight…zombies…

  280. spam spam bacon spam says:

    ‘piscataway is “there” as in “anything but…”

  281. afe says:

    No I do care David. You are right. It is not a comp killer for any house not priced 3mm in GR or for that matter any other town. Carry on.

  282. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (286)-

    Wow. Brilliant author…he used to live in Hunterdon Co. His GF at the time had a kid in my daughter’s class.

    Check out some of his work. It is scary. He is scary.

  283. kettle1 says:

    Let’s look at C through fair-value eyes using the year-end 2008 data released last month. If you look at the average earning assets of $1.635 trillion, only $650 billion are bank deposits, with the remaining liabilities needed to support these assets funded from market sources. If you take a relatively conservative loss rate assumption of 30% of assets, including charge-offs and additional M2M losses, we possibly are talking about total losses at C in excess of $500 billion or a multiple of tangible equity capital, meaning that the only way to mark-to-market C’s assets is to accept that the equity is gone and begin by imposing a haircut on C’s creditors.

    http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp

  284. spam spam bacon spam says:

    So, here I am, dealing with a 70-ish property owner who ARGUES with me.

    THE @#$%^ tanks were in the ground when he bought the place, why should he have to take them out?

    Ignorance is bliss, but only if you’re the ignorant one.

    It’s heII to everyone else around you.

  285. whocares says:

    #282 May be, but it sure as heck beats alot of other places I know.

  286. kettle1 says:

    from seeking alpha

    U.S. Debt Default, Dollar Collapse Altogether Likely

    The prospect of the United States defaulting on its debt is not just likely. It’s inevitable, and imminent. The regulatory black holes into which sanity and reason disappear on a daily basis are soon to collapse under the mass of their sheer size. The circle jerk going on among G7 governments has to end – the steady advance of gold, even in the face of a managed price, exposes the real value of the U.S. dollar, as opposed to its apparent value expressed in the dollar index. Is 2009 the year that the United States formally defaults? And with that, will the dollar collapse be rolled back ten for one or more?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/118103-u-s-debt-default-dollar-collapse-altogether-likely?source=feed

  287. scribe says:

    BAC is down to 4.71.

    If the stock continues to slide, what happens next?

    What’s the crisis point – if and when the stock goes below a dollar?

  288. kettle1 says:

    Fitch cuts Russia’s credit rating

    Russia’s credit rating was downgraded on Wednesday after Fitch, the ratings agency, took fright over its haemorrhaging currency reserves and sharp drop in oil prices. The long-term credit rating was lowered a notch to triple-B, two rungs above “junk” grade, following a similar move from Standard & Poor’s in December. It would prove very costly for Russia should it lose its investment grade rating. Russia is the only G8 nation to have suffered a downgrade since the start of the financial crisis.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b3cf80a-f2ac-11dd-abe6-0000779fd2ac.html

  289. kettle1 says:

    Citigroup Leads Tumble in Hybrid Bonds as Bank-Nationalization Bets Surge

    Bond investors’ bets on bank nationalizations are hindering already reduced lending by the world’s biggest financial institutions. The market for securities with characteristics of both debt and equity that Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and other financial companies used to bolster their capital is in freefall on concern governments will stop banks that took public cash from paying interest. The hybrids, which typically count as regulatory capital to cushion against losses, fell 11 percent last month in the U.S., more than they did in all of 2008, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. Citigroup and Bank of America bonds lost as much as 34 percent of their value.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aZXBs8UOpXyY&refer=exclusive

  290. veto says:

    imposing a haircut on C’s creditors…
    ouch

    great comp killer by the way, clearly a beautiful home, truly reveals the severity of the downturn imo. when 20% discount cant move a home like this, things are obviously changing…

  291. BC Bob says:

    “Let’s look at C through fair-value eyes using the year-end 2008 data released last month”

    Kettle,

    In addition to the infusions we have guaranteed $300B of their “assets”. Their market cap is approx $19B. Any wonder why we are going into the s*it can?

  292. kettle1 says:

    Dave,,

    The fundamentals that have causes the collpase in price of the 3Mil home are the same that are at work behind the fall of the 500K homes.

    The value of these properties from 200K to 2 million were predicated on assumption that housing values and incomes would continue to go up. This 2 primary assumption have both been proven to be false.

    The only question on the table now is how far do the relative segments of the RE market fall.

    I take one of the more extreme views on this blog, i thin we will see a average of 60 – 80% drop in value from peak by the time the market bottoms.

    cheers :)

  293. Sean says:

    More than 2 Million Free meals served yesterday, they may not have jobs they may not have pensions but they sure as heck have bacon.

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/03/news/companies/dennys_breakfast.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009020411

  294. Ben says:

    “BAC is down to 4.71. ”

    Five…..Five Dolla….Five dolla bank stocks!

  295. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (296)-

    Get the feeling that something really big is about to happen?

  296. Clotpoll says:

    veto (297)-

    Now that the public will know it’s owned by a former LEH VP, that will be good for another 20% whack.

  297. Ben says:

    #280, who cares

    “#274 Do not knock Rutgers, lot’s of bright kids go there as well as morons. That is the same as any other college/university.

    Why do we always knock our own?

    I would take Rutgers any day over an institution located in the middle of no where.”

    I teach at Rutgers. The way we’ve been running our school the past 5 years, we are destroying it.

  298. BC Bob says:

    Ben,

    Can you get me Big East tourney tickets?

  299. Clotpoll says:

    Rutgers is a school? I thought it was a football club.

  300. kettle1 says:

    uhoh, to bad the industry need about 10-12 million to remain profitable.

    U.S. Auto Sales Hit 27-Year Low

    With the exception of Subaru, Hyundai, and Kia, sales plummeted in January. Could the stimulus plan stabilize the market by yearend? It’s not just Detroit that’s in trouble. The water’s also falling on the floor in Stuttgart, Munich, Toyota City, and other automotive manufacturing centers around the world. That’s because for the first month of 2009 Americans bought cars at an annualized rate of 9.57 million, the worst level for January

    http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/feb2009/db2009023_755234.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis

  301. Clotpoll says:

    BC, I think they only give tickets to the schools that make it to the tourney.

  302. kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    The more i look at this stuff the more i think Escape From NY was actually a training video left for us by time travelers.

    http://www.spike.com/video/escape-from-new/2483010

  303. BC Bob says:

    Clot [308],

    That would present a problem. Maybe if some pos is for sale, with Big East tickets, I’ll bite?

  304. kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    it gets better and better

    U.S. to auction $67 billion in quarterly refunding

    The Treasury Department will auction a record $67 billion in notes and bonds next week and plans several major changes to its auction schedule as the government struggles to come up with the funds to finance a deficit expected to top $1.6 trillion this fiscal year. In line with what the bond market expected, the Treasury said Wednesday it will auction off $32 billion in 3-year notes, $21 billion in 10-year notes and $14 billion in 30-year bonds to refund $36.3 billion in maturing securities and raise approximately $30.7 billion. Financing may prove more challenging in the months ahead. In addition to the economic-stimulus package moving through Congress, the Treasury is likely to have to finance more funds to rescue the banking sector and to help homeowners avoid foreclosure.

    The government said it will also resume issuing seven-year notes monthly after a 16-year absence. Moreover, it will auction a new 30-year bond each quarter.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-sell-record-67-billion/story.aspx?guid={55792A97-D52D-4503-B749-72FED742DC56}&dist=msr_4

  305. kettle1 says:

    Treasury provides $1.15 billion to 42 banks

    The Treasury Department on Tuesday detailed 42 local banks that recently received a combined $1.15 billion in government bailout funds. The funds, given to institutions in 25 states, were distributed through capital investments under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP

    http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/090203/020309_treasury_funds_healthy_banks.html?.v=4

  306. whocares says:

    #304:I teach at Rutgers. The way we’ve been running our school the past 5 years, we are destroying it.

    I agree and it is disgraceful. I will not however knock the school as it has always had an excellent reputation, sadly more out of state than in state.

    I know many talented successful people who have attended the university, and I myself completed my graduate work there.

    Although it is more expenseive than many other out of state state schools,(thanks Mr.Corzine) it still is an excellent value for the money vs. a private institution.

    Perhaps that is why the undergraduate school had record enrollemnt numbers for the Fall 08 academicyear.

  307. John says:

    record numbers of nappy hos

  308. kettle1 says:

    California Credit Rating Lowest in U.S.

    Standard & Poor’s Corp. cut California’s credit rating Monday to the lowest level among all 50 states because of a budget impasse between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and state lawmakers. Mr. Schwarzenegger and state legislators have been deadlocked for three months over ways to close a budget deficit expected to reach $42 billion by mid-2010. The downgrade reflects the rating agency’s view of “the lack of political progress around the budget negotiations that we believe is serving to exacerbate the state’s current and projected cash position,” said Gabriel Petek, an S&P analyst, adding that “the state’s cash position is rapidly eroding.”

  309. kettle1 says:

    grim

    313 in mod, help plz

  310. John says:

    They are talking pref stocks not bonds

    Citigroup Leads Tumble in Hybrid Bonds as Bank-Nationalization Bets Surge

  311. kettle1 says:

    CLot,

    re 286 (Sheldon S. Wolin)

    read that link and then listen to this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkuOAY-S6OY

  312. Essex says:

    Rutgers? When I heard that people take intro classes there with 500 kids I pretty much figured that it was not worth a damn. Also knowing a few of the graduates in various fields I was stunned a bit at what they did not know. Nice people really….but vacant in many ways. Thanks, but give me a decent midwestern (middle of nowhere sure) school any day over the mess out here.

  313. David says:

    #299 I agree the fundamentals of the bubble applied to homes at all price points. And I agree that how much each price point falls relative to each other is an open question.

    Clearly there is some value that is intangible in many higher end homes, especially high end homes in a mid-range town. Something other than middle class commuter values drives demand. So I don’t think a 30% cut on a boutique home is predictive of a 30% cut town-wide. There, I said it again.

    It’s like you can’t nitpick a post around here without being accused of bubble denialism or something…

  314. BC Bob says:

    kettle [311],

    Suppose they schedule an auction and nobody shows up? That is, other than the fed.

  315. kettle1 says:

    Essex,

    I am a rutgers grad…….

    wait, maybe that explains why my typing sucks…..

    A school is what you make of it.

  316. BC Bob says:

    “If you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit”

    Sir Josiah Stamp, former chief of the Bank of England in 1927.

  317. Shore Guy says:

    Humm. Dow, 7,956.xx. Before the end of the year, who expects it to: 1) hit 6,9xx or 2) close at or below 6,9xx? A year or so ago I figured 8,000 would be bottom, but now….

  318. HEHEHE says:

    I like these world affairs, Russia takes away an airbase, the west downgrades their debt.

  319. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    “Suppose they schedule an auction and nobody shows up? That is, other than the fed.”

    that’s easy

    Last Thursday, an $30 billion auction in five-year notes failed to stir the interest of traditional primary dealers. The auction itself was saved by an anonymous “indirect” bid.

    the PPT/bergabe jumps in through carribean shell corp.

  320. stan says:

    David-

    what exactly are you looking for? having trouble with your question

    I wouldnt call glen ridge middle class either

    the place is overpriced. it has taken drastic reductions..

    in regards to RU, the academic standards to get in are much higher than most public schools.

    once they got rid of the different college system and requirements, the overall reputation has risen. Livingston and cook were a drag on things.

  321. kettle1 says:

    shore 327

    5,9xx !?!?!?

    bottom will be dow 2000 – 4000 depending. i lean towards 2-3K

  322. comrade nom deplume says:

    [172, 182] kettle

    First one is too large and too expensive at over $12K an acre. Ridiculous. Would make sense only if one were to partially develop it and that is a major undertaking for amateurs like us.

    Second is doable, 45 acres is a hobby farm for some, and not clear how much acreage is row crop, but it makes sense. Problem is that it is not a suitable vacation locale, and is more of a bug out/sanctuary location.

    What we need is a combination of the best aspects of both properties: manageable size, reasonable price, and proximity to recreation/leisure.

    In either event, the farming/development aspect is necessary as there must be an active, offshore trade or business (with no income that is effectvely connected to a US trade or business) in order to take advantage of the portfolio interest exemption on US debt.

  323. schabadoo says:

    Way behind this thread today, but where’d all the Kannekt realtor types come from?

    Grim, you get posted on a NAR site?

  324. Ben says:

    High academic standards are a fallacy for every school. The measurement of student performance in high school has been distorted with grade inflation and easier standardized tests. Unless you consistently raise your GPA and SAT score requirements for the school, you are actually lowering them by keeping them where they are. While I do say that Rutgers is destroying the school’s reputation, I am 100% certain that every other school is doing the same thing, so it’s all relative and the only real losers in this debacle are the students. I just hope we can manage to turn the corner before this latest batch of students becomes your newest batch of teachers. Our educational system is in drastic need of reform yet every reform they propose ignores the problems that are blatantly obvious.

  325. Qwerty says:

    RE: “So, we move from Middletown to Colts Neck, get an extra bedroom, get 50% more sq. footage, drop our rent 7% from previous, and lock-in the rent for 3 years. Good deal?”

    With “50% more sq. footage” get ready for the heating and cooling costs.

    Much better schools though, right?

    Sounds like a nice place, good luck.

  326. annie says:

    bw –

    During the past few years, all common sense fled and now we have this global mess.

    Few questioned how can real estate appreciate 10 – 20% annually; or does my 8 year old really need a Coach pocketbook; does my 16 year old need a brand new Audi convertible; can I afford 3 vacations a year; does granite need to cover every surface; should I pay $40,000 a year college tuition for my child who is a D+ student?

    People will have to deal with the consequences of their actions when they were not exercising common sense/good judgment.

    While I used common sense and lived within my means, many relatives, friends, and co-workers very vocally questioned what was wrong with me. Nobody wanted to hear that I was cautious and gravely concerned about the future. Young people/taxpayers will be paying for their parents and/or grandparents mistakes well into the future.

    It’s time that good judgment and common sense become fashionable again.

  327. HEHEHE says:

    Re Madoff,

    I just finished skimming Markopols’ testimony. Really makes you wonder how many other Madoff’s are out there right now.

  328. nwnj1 says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 4, 2009 at 4:20 pm

    BC, I think they only give tickets to the schools that make it to the tourney.

    All 16 teams make it this year. And that wasn’t true last year either.

  329. BC Bob says:

    “Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — U.S. taxpayers may be stuck with losses on $30 billion of Bear Stearns Cos. assets owned by the Federal Reserve even though the central bank has said otherwise, according to Robert A. Eisenbeis, Cumberland Associates Inc.’s chief monetary economist.”

    “There is no prospect for a profit on the assets,” Eisenbeis wrote in a report yesterday. “Losses are mounting.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2dHh.RbAogk&refer=home

  330. #337 – The testimony was very interesting. I read his prepared stuff already. He’s practically accusing the SEC of abetting Madoff.
    Also his testimony today that,re: Madoff “an organization that big was sure to have mob and drug-cartel ties” might be a bit too honest to ever get looked into further.

  331. comrade nom deplume says:

    [172/182] kettle,

    Regarding CR,

    One of the best aspects that an organized, funded group brings to the compound idea is the ability to invest in more than one location and for different purposes. If you are able to pull together enough people and cash, then it makes sense to have a small portfolio of properties, with locations in the US and overseas. This is what one of my trust clients (a Fortune 500 family) had, with locations in the Mountain West and in New Zealand (they may have had more, but I don’t recall). Further, there is no reason that the living arrangement and farming need to be in the same place (I simply presume it for cost and security reasons). Ultimately, in a Phase II, I would want a foreign location in order to use certain tax and asset protection strategies. That’s way too complex to get into here though.

  332. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (313)-

    It’s like a festival of debt.

  333. sas says:

    Lemon brothers!
    ha ha ha

    total morons.

    SAS

  334. crossroads says:

    # 336 annie

    Have friends, relatives or co-workers given you a pat on the back for being responsible during the past few years??

    I think its a disgrace that baby-boomers have enjoyed the lifestyle they have and are willing to dump their debt on future generations

  335. sas says:

    “Really makes you wonder how many other Madoff’s are out there right now”

    bloke, how whole system is a Madoff.
    Instutional corruption up and down.

    and you think the SEC means anything?
    FDIC?

    means nada.

    and the dumb media blows smoke and slings cain to tell you otherwise…

    ha
    SAS

  336. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (315)-

    The next Barca/Real Madrid game should be an ugly little affair. The Madrid fans have started with the f@scist cheers at recent games, and Barca has practically won the title already.

  337. sas says:

    “Also his testimony today that,re: Madoff “an organization that big was sure to have mob and drug-cartel ties”

    no kidding son.

    its all tied to together, and thats the way the govt & wall st wants it.

    you think they want that money going to the singapore index? hell no, if it did…you little 401k would be worth half & the govt checks would shut down overnight.

    govt financial sovernity? ha go tweak.

    and you really think the govt doesn’t help ship it in?

    and you cops with the 1970s porno mustaches think your cool? … your not, you are just an arm to make the private prisons full (which is also owned by wall st.)

    SAS

  338. sas says:

    “Also his testimony today that,re: Madoff “an organization that big was sure to have mob and drug-cartel ties”

    no kidding son.

    its all tied to together, and thats the way the govt & wall st wants it.

    you think they want that money going to the singapore index? hell no, if it did…you little 401k would be worth half & the govt checks would shut down overnight.

    govt financial sovernity? ha go tweak.

    and you really think the govt doesn’t help ship it in?

    and you cops with the 1970s p*rno mustaches think your cool? … your not, you are just an arm to make the private prisons full (which is also owned by wall st.)

    SAS

  339. veto says:

    i did rutgers recently, mpa, ranked 10th in nation last year but honestly i wasnt impressed, not one class made me sweat and im far from nerd.
    cuny baruch undergrad finance was about ten times more challenging, sadistic foreigner professors made it a point to fail half the class. luckily i graduated when we were at full employment and investment banks ran out of ivy league poetry majors talent pool and lowered their standards, so my first job was Citi ib analyst with bonus of 60% my salary, i thought i was rich with my first bonus.
    although it probably wont happen, i’d send my own daughter to cuny baruch anyday. then buy her a mercedez upon graduation with the money saved from not sending her to drew or villanova or stockton.

  340. sas says:

    “private prisons & drugs”

    and if you think slavery was abolished, you best think again.

    SAS
    (ok, off the rant, had to deal with the god damn swiss today)

  341. comrade nom deplume says:

    Re: bloom article on Connecticut tax losses

    “According to Forbes magazine, the state’s richest residents now are hedge fund managers including Steven Cohen and Paul Tudor Jones, who live and work in and around Greenwich. Cohen earned $900 million in 2007 while Jones made $300 million, according to Institutional Investor magazine’s Alpha publication”

    Assuming that is all state taxable, and assuming a tax rate of 5%, that’s 60 mill.

    Seems to me that these guys have a tremendous amount of leverage with the state. They could go into Rell’s office, put their feet up on either side of her desk, and say “Give us an income tax break, or we’ll back up the Bekins vans and blow this clambake.”

  342. Clotpoll says:

    BC (324)-

    A regular bond vigilante vs. Fed showdown.

    This, we’ve seen before. You know how it goes, too.

  343. comrade nom deplume says:

    [348] veto

    Wanna sweat? Do the Graduate Tax Program at NYU. That place would make a Mensa member rethink his mental competency inside of 2 weeks.

  344. Clotpoll says:

    nwnj1 (338)-

    So now even the Big East is reduced to giving out trophies for trying hard.

  345. veto says:

    Graduate Tax Program…

    just the name alone makes me cross eyed

  346. Clotpoll says:

    x (344)-

    I think it is consistent will all their prior behavior.

    “I think its a disgrace that baby-boomers have enjoyed the lifestyle they have and are willing to dump their debt on future generations”

  347. spam spam bacon spam says:

    I’m still waiting for someone to let me cash out my ROTH IRA to buy a huge teevee.

    In the meantime, I get this:

    Chase can help make paying your taxes a little easier this year. You can use your Chase credit card to pay your federal, state and local taxes quickly and securely.

    Using your Chase card is the easy way to:

    • Pay your federal and state income tax, local property and real estate taxes, penalty fees and more

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    • Earn rewards for every tax dollar you charge

    There’s no delay, no hassle and no writing checks when you pay your taxes with your Chase card. Take advantage of our easy and secure tax payment service for a convenience fee as low as 2.49%

    Please visit chasepayyourtaxes.com to get started today.

    That’s my ticket! Charge my taxes! I can give the gummint my money to give to the banks so they can…oh wait, the bank ain’t giving ME money, they’re TAKING it…

    Hey! wait a minute here!!!

    ;)

  348. John says:

    screw baruch, BMCC rocks!!!!!!!

  349. Essex says:

    Schools will never be reformed until society changes…including the very core of our beliefs and work ethic.

  350. make money says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBYo-G8RePM

    This is a classic. I love this guy. He should run the SEC.

  351. Essex says:

    Ben, your full o shit bro…I can smell it on ya. The knowledge base is huge and the definition of intelligence takes more forms these days than a weeks’ worth of bowel movements.

  352. John says:

    What?

    Essex says:
    February 4, 2009 at 5:39 pm
    Schools will never be reformed until society changes…including the very core of our beliefs and work ethic.

  353. spam spam bacon spam says:

    Hunterdon GTG at Tiff’s ?

    (Route 31 in Lebanon, right by North Hunterdon HS…About an easy 3 miles to 78)

    (I do would Clinton House but last time I went there the spaghetti was like $28.00 and forgive me for being honest, but it’s #$%&ing spaghetti. Also, I will admit the class of hooker slacking at the bar is higher, but they are still wearing glitter and glitter is soooooo 80’s. If someone walks in with “10” jeans on, I’m outtie!)

    BTW – I’m MUCH stupider in person. However, if Jamil showed up, I could stand next to him and seem brighter than fu**ing Einstein all night…

    Also, we could party our butts off in the Clinton GM and/or Ford dealerships showrooms. As of Jan 1st, they’re empty.

    Just think of all the glass and mirrors!!! Also, I’m sure the car lifts still work and we could set up a lift-rodeo.

    So, I hate Tiff’s but it’s a good locale and cheap and the bar is a big, big area. Plus they’re stupid. They’d probably forget to bill us for half of what we consume….

    Should we do this March 7th or March 14th? The 14th would probably include a large influx of other HC drunks due to St Patrick’s day, which might be to our benefit. :)

  354. comrade nom deplume says:

    [354] veto

    Stuff makes your brain bleed.

  355. ruggles says:

    When was the last time a sale price in New Jersey met this criteria?

    263 –

    “In a down market (when a prudent investor should be buying), the potential one month rental price should not exceed 1% of the market value of the house.

    My pops never violated this rule when buying residential investment property. Not even once.

    $2,400 monthly rent = $240,000 value”

  356. Clotpoll says:

    spam (362)-

    Best we avoid St. Patty’s Day. If I get in a bar fight, the resulting publicity won’t go well for me.

  357. Clotpoll says:

    ruggles (364)-

    More recently than you might think.

  358. Essex says:

    John….re: ?

    We have to redefine the whole ethos….(said in Lebowski’esque accent)…

  359. comrade nom deplume says:

    Here is something fun I found in some historical research on federal property taxes (one of the requirements for a domestic compound is the legal inability of the feds to impose a property tax).

    A Little Rebellion in Pennsylvania

    One of the strange ironies of our history is that the great tax revolt of 1799, one of the first in American history, occurred in PA not because the tax was any more onerous in PA than in other places, but because of when the assessments were made. The assessors finally got to work valuing land there around the first week of March 1799. At that time there was a narrow window of about three weeks when the men of the area (Bucks and Northampton Counties near Philadephia) were idle–the Winter snow had melted and it was too early to plant the crops. Thus, snow didn’t hinder movement nor did Spring demand their planting of crops. The idle men were hanging around taverns; they became aware of the presence of federal assessors, and they chased them out of their area. Rebellion ensued, people were arrested, and a posse of men led by German-American John Fries went up to Bethlehem to release about two dozen men who had been arrested and imprisoned. . . .

    Well, after things simmered down, President John Adams ordered federal troops into the area to suppress the (by now non-existent) rebellion. They arrested Fries, and within a month the grand jury had indicted him for treason, a capital offense. He was tried in the federal Circuit Court in Philadelphia with one Supreme Court Justice (Iredell) and the District Court Judge (Peters) hearing the case. . . . Though convicted of treason and sentenced to death, he was granted a new trial because one of the jurors hinted at his bias. Then, one year later, with Justice Chase of the US Supreme Court and Judge Peters of the District court hearing the case, he was convicted again of treason and sentenced to death.

  360. comrade nom deplume says:

    [368] redux

    FWIW, if there is rebellion, it will be in rural areas first. Out in the West, there has been active rebellion against federal authority in certain areas over mostly environmental and land management issues for years now.

    The sheeple in cities will riot for food and protection, not freedom. The folks in rural america will riot to keep the rest of america out.

  361. chicagofinance says:

    whocares says:
    February 4, 2009 at 4:30 pm
    #304:I teach at Rutgers. The way we’ve been running our school the past 5 years, we are destroying it.
    Perhaps that is why the undergraduate school had record enrollemnt numbers for the Fall 08 academicyear.

    whocares: What a specious and unsupported assumption that is among other things wrong…..concurrence does not imply causation…….Rutgers reputation is warranted, although it is slightly overrated by its graduates. No question that anyone who is at the head of the class is of good quality….but you MUST be at the head of the class.

  362. chicagofinance says:

    Essex says:
    February 4, 2009 at 4:38 pm
    Rutgers? When I heard that people take intro classes there with 500 kids I pretty much figured that it was not worth a damn. Also knowing a few of the graduates in various fields I was stunned a bit at what they did not know. Nice people really….but vacant in many ways. Thanks, but give me a decent midwestern (middle of nowhere sure) school any day over the mess out here.

    SX: at this point, I consider you a troll……

  363. sas says:

    “Hunterdon GTG at Tiff’s ?”

    I’m interested in this. Its a little out of my zone, if things line up, i’d go.

    can i bring a guest?

    SAS

  364. Barbara says:

    regarding friends and family that are in a bad way now: has anyone detected some resentment, cold shoulder? We have and we were never preachy on the subject, rather we smiled and nodded when we got the “wise financial advice followed by eye roll” after we politely passed at said advice.
    Now, we “are lucky ducks.” That’s right folks, we just got lucky.

  365. PeaceNow says:

    Comrade NDP

    Forgive me if I’m dense, but is it a compound or a spa that you want to open? I mean, on the one hand you’re talking about farming and being (somewhat) self-sufficient, but on the other hand you want this place to be located near recreational areas. First of all, I doubt that any residents of the compound would have time to do much recreating, and, second of all, the whole purpose of having some kind of (armed?) compound would seem to indicate you don’t want a lot of outsiders. Now you’re adding setting this compound up somewhere outside the US…. Have you considered how anyone would be able to get to it if the doom you seem to be preparing for actually arrives?

  366. crossroads says:

    # 373 Barbara
    My family won’t even talk about whats going on it’s like nothing is happening. This after my sister inlaw sat my wife down 2 1/2 yrs ago and said don’t rent because prices only go up and you will never own another house. My wife said we have a plan don’t worry about us.

  367. sas says:

    “Hunterdon GTG”

    i will be sure to wear my Omama = Bush T-shirt.

    :P
    SAS

  368. yikes says:

    release the hounds.

    http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2009/02/crisis-is-passing-7.html

    clot, email this guy with some of your thoughts.

  369. sean says:

    Krammer again rallying against SKF, says that Mary Shapiro the new head of the SEC should ban it to save capitalism.

  370. Clotpoll says:

    sas (372)-

    Define “guest”.

  371. Clotpoll says:

    “say hello to my little friend…”?

  372. Clotpoll says:

    sean (378)-

    No surer sign that the 2x short ETFs are about to pop.

  373. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (377)-

    Whoa. Like Kudlow’s evil twin.

    Busting on this fool would be too easy. He can suffer in silence in a few months.

    Surprised his Argentinian wife didn’t tell him about her memories of the looting.

  374. sean says:

    I am starting to think Krammer is auditioning for the job of running the new Ministry for Public Enlightenment and Propaganda, same job Goebbels held.

  375. Clotpoll says:

    After what Markopolous said about Schapiro’s old outfit today, I’m sure she’s the perfect person to shut down forms of short-selling that don’t please the PPT.

  376. Clotpoll says:

    Of course, the only thing left on WS that can detect crooks and scams are the short-sellers.

  377. grim says:

    David,

    Looking at the MLS data for Glen Ridge, January 1st till now.

    3 sales year to date.

    28 Midland Ave
    Purchased: 7/27/2007
    Purchase Price: $410,000
    Sold: 1/12/2009
    Sale Price: $383,000
    Loss (including commission): ~$46,000

    87 Windsor Place
    (no prior sale history)
    Listed: $599,000
    Sold: $569,000
    DOM: 29

    443 Ridgewood Ave
    Purchased: 2/3/2004
    Purchase Price: $1,510,000
    Sold: 1/7/2009
    Sale Price: $1,385,000
    Loss (including commission): ~$194,000

  378. grim says:

    You sure that comp isn’t applicable?

  379. comrade nom deplume says:

    [374] peaceout

    I really can’t respond to that without reprising a lot of what I have posted over the past few months. Sounds like you came in during halftime. Not a rap on you, but it is a bit dogged to re-explain the criteria and intended uses. Sorry.

  380. yikes says:

    comrade nom deplume says:
    February 4, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    [368] redux

    FWIW, if there is rebellion, it will be in rural areas first. Out in the West, there has been active rebellion against federal authority in certain areas over mostly environmental and land management issues for years now.

    The sheeple in cities will riot for food and protection, not freedom. The folks in rural america will riot to keep the rest of america out.

    comrad, where would you rather be? I’ll pass on the cities, thanks.

  381. yikes says:

    Barbara says:
    February 4, 2009 at 6:16 pm

    regarding friends and family that are in a bad way now: has anyone detected some resentment, cold shoulder? We have and we were never preachy on the subject, rather we smiled and nodded when we got the “wise financial advice followed by eye roll” after we politely passed at said advice.
    Now, we “are lucky ducks.” That’s right folks, we just got lucky.

    when we told a good friend – for like 20 years – who is now “stuck” in his overpriced townhouse in another state, surrounded by foreclosures and probably 250k underwater – we were buying, and how much we were putting down so as not to have a massive mortgage, my buddy actually said, “you got lucky.”

    I was fine keeping quiet – hey whatever. My wife jumped in instantly and spelled out how this had NOTHING to do with luck. it sort of ended the conversation.

    there’s definitely tension. took some photos after we bought the place, and was actually reluctant to send them out to friends or put them on the facebook page.

    i think someone here put it best: “If you have wealth, or you’re doing OK, it’s best to hide it for a few years.”

  382. Essex says:

    “…Unintended consequences…” Meaning NYC might be ‘done’ as the financial center of the world…based not on the meltdown (of course) but on the salary limits put into place?! Discuss?

  383. sean says:

    Looks like they are bringing the band back together.

    http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/36833

  384. Clotpoll says:

    sx (391-

    Been done for a while. Now we’re just fighting over whether it’s medium-well, well or just plain burnt.

  385. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Essex Interesting premise,if the pay is down in NY the business goes elsewhere.
    I think you are on to something, agree.
    Unintended consequence but politically necessary?

  386. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot as diplomatic as usual! Not that I disagree.

  387. Clotpoll says:

    Unintended consequence #1:

    Tax-starved NYC and NY state can’t count on getting more from salary-capped WS crowd.

  388. Essex says:

    Politics will essentially make this country a third world nation if they have not already. I’m seriouzzzz.

  389. kettle1 says:

    deflation quote of the day…

    Deflation doesn’t give a damn if you are a robber baron or a union worker. It doesn’t give a damn whether you eat or starve. Deflation is relentless and will not stop until the market as a whole finally rediscovers the correct prices for everything. And foolish attempts to prop up prices will do nothing except prolong the pain.

  390. kettle1 says:

    ben,

    this ones for you:

    “More than a few educators — far more than those in my family — have noted that listening comprehension among students is markedly down. A doctor who teaches medical school has observed that even med-school students have trouble retaining material presented orally unless they take notes.

    It’s not just listening retention. I’ve noticed something else as well, as have others in various fields, but one set of examples comes to mind. Although I’m required to proof-read the galleys of my books, they also go to proofreaders as well, and I’ve noted in the past few years, more and more proofreaders are asking me to clarify references unnecessarily. For example, in a forthcoming book, a pilot refers to a vessel by name. The proofreader requested that there be more identification, and that I show that the name referred to a class of ship. That would be fine if it had been 100 or 200 pages since the name was used, but I’d given that very description in some detail a page and a half before. Another proofreader wanted clarification of a point, requesting specific information — despite the fact that that same information ended one of the key chapters. My wife the professor has noted that even “good” students often cannot remember material presented in class lectures, discussed in workshops, and included in reading assignments.

    Another example comes up in the Internet Database Forum, where readers ask me questions about books. All too often the younger readers ask questions about books of mine that they have read, when the answers were already in the books. Most of the time, older readers supply the answers even before I do; so it’s not as though the material is that obscure.”

    The essay ends with the following remarks:

    “In short, brilliantly reflecting answers back in a test-taking educational system prepares our students for quick answers and short-term decision-making. But it’s not doing them — or us — much good in the long run, because planning beyond the now requires an understanding of more than the present and the surface of the past, not to mention analytical and considered decision-making. Especially when such “brilliant” short-term decisions more often than not lead to long-term disasters.”

    http://tinyurl.com/auozlt

  391. BC Bob says:

    “Meaning NYC might be ‘done’ as the financial center of the world…based not on the meltdown (of course) but on the salary limits put into place?!”

    Wall Street was finished before the proposed exec pay limits. The world economy was held hostage by the banking cartel. Their reckless pursuit of speculation/greed/profits has precipitated a breakdown of the global financial system. They have succeeded in imploding the world economy. A Great D is now staring at them in the mirror.

    Got a toaster?

  392. Barbara says:

    392. Yikes
    Yep, we keep mum about what we have in cash,learned that lesson years ago the hard way.

  393. Shore Guy says:

    This is AMAZING to have a WH spokesman say about his boss:

    Obama aides said Wednesday the president made more than a simple mistake in trying to save Daschle’s nomination.

    “I think in the interest of getting those appointments, the president trumped the principles he laid out in the campaign and he took responsibility for that,” White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.

    “http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/02/04/obamas-vetting-process-draws-scrutiny-cabinet-withdrawals/”

  394. PeaceNow says:

    Comrade—

    Believe me, I’ve read all of your posts about this ‘compound.’ But that’s just the point: what you’re describing isn’t a compound as much as it is some kind of compoundish-like time-share that you just can’t afford to build yourself. When I last queried you about the wisdom of making high net worth individuals the ideal occupants of this ‘compound’ because they might lack the skills needed, you countered with the point(?) that such people could be hired. When spam spam expressed some of the same skepticism, you mentioned your roofing experience. I remain unconvinced that you’re talking about a compound rather than a spa or a ski resort.

  395. grim says:

    From the Post:

    BLOOMBERG TO CUT TV, RADIO STAFF

    Bloomberg LP’s long-running streak of no layoffs will end today as the company founded by Mayor Mike Bloomberg hands out pink slips to 60 people in the company’s unprofitable TV and radio operation.

    As part of the wave of cuts, the company yesterday canceled the “Night Talk” TV show hosted by Mike Schneider. More cuts are expected to be unveiled today by Andy Lack, CEO of multimedia operations, and David Rhodes, who runs Bloomberg’s TV operation.

    The cuts are expected to be evenly distributed between TV and radio, both of which are losing an estimated $20 million-plus a year.

  396. Shore Guy says:

    “Looks like they are bringing the band back together.”

    And this time the Russians are in a stronger financial condition.

  397. Essex says:

    K I S S Kettle……if you can’t say it simply…elegantly…and with purpose…then STFU…you too Ben.

  398. victorian says:

    Shore (407) –

    “And this time the Russians are in a stronger financial condition.”

    Are you sure about that? Russia ranks 4th in terms of the country most likely to default on its debt.

    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/country-default-risk-rises-across-the-board.html

  399. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Peace

    In essence, I am talking about both. Not a survivalist camp and farm, and not a ski house timeshare but a combination of each.

    Makes locating a desireablke site very hard.

  400. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom: Maybe you can’t have it both ways or do either well enough to make it worth it. Go with one & be done with it.
    Your choice.

  401. Seneca says:

    Montclair Laundromat robbed for second time in two months.

    Shots fired.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/masked_man_robs_montclair_laun.html

  402. kettle1 says:

    arizona getting all uppity with 10th amendment claims

    Be it resolved by the House of Representatives of the State of Arizona, the Senate concurring, that:

    1. That the State of Arizona hereby claims sovereignty under the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States over all powers not otherwise enumerated and granted to the federal government by the Constitution of the United States.

    2. That this Resolution serves as notice and demand to the federal government, as our agent, to cease and desist, effective immediately, mandates that are beyond the scope of these constitutionally delegated powers.

    3. That all compulsory federal legislation that directs states to comply under threat of civil or criminal penalties or sanctions or requires states to pass legislation or lose federal funding be prohibited or repealed.

    4. That the Secretary of State of the State of Arizona transmit copies of this resolution to the President of the United States, the President of the United States Senate, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate of each state’s legislature and each Member of Congress from the State of Arizona.

    http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/legtext/49leg/1r/bills/hcr2024p.htm

  403. Ben says:

    Comrade Nom,

    “Seems to me that these guys have a tremendous amount of leverage with the state. They could go into Rell’s office, put their feet up on either side of her desk, and say “Give us an income tax break, or we’ll back up the Bekins vans and blow this clambake.””

    Well, Stephen Cohen may have bit off more than he can chew. The guy is incredibly arrogant and I personally know some people who know him. I’ll be vague about the details for the time being, but I do know that certain authorities are looking to throw him in jail.

  404. chicagofinance says:

    Essex says:
    February 4, 2009 at 8:43 pm
    K I S S Kettle……if you can’t say it simply…elegantly…and with purpose…then STFU…you too Ben.

    TROLL….you are the new duckie…

  405. Hard Place says:

    In essence, I am talking about both. Not a survivalist camp and farm, and not a ski house timeshare but a combination of each.

    I’ve got the perfect place for you and there is a lake nearby too. I am partial to Lake Tahoe.

  406. Hard Place says:

    In essence, I am talking about both. Not a survivalist camp and farm, and not a ski house timeshare but a combination of each.

    Nom – I’ve got the perfect place for you and there is a lake nearby too. I am partial to Lake Tahoe.

  407. sas says:

    your cops love you, they are here for you.

    “Dashboard Video at Center of Alleged Police Brutality Case”
    http://tinyurl.com/aoo7kf

  408. Hard Place says:

    arizona getting all uppity with 10th amendment claims

    Kettle – we should tell AZ not to be sore losers after they lose the super bowl and have their senator lose the white house.

  409. Pat says:

    He who values his couth
    sometimes finds success in flattery
    And the private humor
    lasts longer than the public.

  410. Pat says:

    Old coal miner proverb

  411. sean says:

    IS it time to spread the word about Krammer?

    Judge for yourselves

    http://www.deepcapture.com/

  412. sas says:

    i should write a “tell all”.

    but, i wouldn’t know where to start, nor would i want to incriminate myself.

    ha ha
    hello FBI in Atlanta :P

    SAS

  413. sean says:

    SaS – ever met the gun toting folks that work in investment banking in NYC?

  414. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [417] hard,

    Did not think that there was much arable land out there. I did look into the Jackson Hole area but there was so much BLM and NP land that available land would be scarce and pricey.

  415. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [411] mike

    That is one way to do it, and circumstances may force that anyway.

    I am running into the same problem engineers have when desiging planes or cars or trucks. They may be good at one or two tasks, but not all of them. Further, there was the one major problem I had with a multiple owner scheme and that was how to share or provide shelter in a TEOTWAWKI scenario. So I had been giving thought to separate properties.

    I think Peace also raised the issue of getting to a remote property. That was one reason I was looking at NEPA. Eventually, if finances permit, the group could expand on an existing rural plot, or procure other sites, like Costa Rica. But that was a later phase.

    FWIW, I am seeing ads in the National Law Journal — compounds, and in one case, an entire town, for sale.

  416. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Hey, I have to copyright this — the name for my little project:

    The Nompound!

  417. Essex says:

    415….Bullshit — u got your panties in a bunch as usual….

  418. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [391] yikes

    I’ll pass on the cities, thanks. Not too happy about owning in NJ either, but I foresee NYC as having a bad 70s flashback.

  419. Essex says:

    I calls em as I see em….we got pseudo survivalists here….teacher bashers….and renters with an eye to buy in 2012….it’s all goodt….

  420. Essex says:

    NYC is gonna be interesting …. with media and Wall Street in free fall we are in for some inneresting times…

  421. Ben says:

    “if you can’t say it simply…elegantly…and with purpose…then STFU…you too Ben.”

    I was vague about it simply because there are legal implications involved. I’d hate to be the one who screws up a case for the law going after someone who has no respect for it.

  422. Brook says:

    REMEMBER; NO MATTER WHAT YOU BID ON A HOME, THE REAL ESTATE AGENT IS LIABLE TO PUT IN THE BID WITH A CONTRACT. IF SHE/HE DOESNT, YOU CAN TAKE ACTIONS TO TAKE THEIR LICENSE AWAY!!!!!!! IF THE HOUSE IS $500,000 — YOU CAN BID $250,000. THE MORE HOMEBUYERS BID ACCORDING TO PRE-BOOM PRICES, THE BETTER OFF WE ALL ARE AND WE CAN BUY HOMES, ONCE AGAIN!

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