Thu 30 Apr 2009
Many don’t know that Brigadoon is what Westfield-insiders refer to their town as when among locals. Really! Only outsiders call it Westfield and you’d stick out like a sore thumb if you called it that to someone familiar with the area. So don’t look like a dweeb, the next time you talk to a Brigadoon Realtor make it known that you are an INSIDER! For extra points, wink while you say it.
On to the comp killer (which must be a mistake, because Brigadoon prices never fall).
20 Woodbrook Circle, Westfield NJ
Purchased: January 1st, 2007
Purchase Price: $1,450,000
Bedrooms: 5
Baths: 4
Square Feet: 3900
Lot Size: 110×120
Taxes: $23,168
Listed for sale on January 11th, 2009
List Price: $1,325,000 (Ouch!)
Reduced to $1,275,090 on January 23rd.
Reduced to $1,199,000 on February 9th.
Reduced to $1,125,000 on February 27th.
Reduced to $1,075,000 on April 2nd.
The reduction to $1.075m was the magic number, 20 Woodbrook went into attorney review on 4/17 and went under contract on 4/30.
The big question is, what will it sell for? We won’t know until closing.
If it sells at asking price, the seller would have lost $375,000. Closer to $425,000 when you include the transaction costs associated with the sale. At asking, this property is selling at a discount of approximately 25% off it’s 2007 sale price.
Unfortunately, I don’t think it sold at asking. Westfield properties have been selling at about 95% of their last list price (on average) this year. If this property follows that trend, the closing price might be somewhere near $1.02m, and a much steeper loss for the owner.
First!
Doesn’t count! FRIST!!
If you can’t afford a 400k hit, you shouldn’t be in Brigadoon.
/off sarcasm
$1,000,000?
I think they overpaid.
“Taxes: $23,168″
and increasing.
I guess all this time when I heard some say real estate only goes up, i think they were meaning property taxes.
SAS
From the Star Ledger:
Corzine: N.J. revenue shortfall as high as $2B
State revenue projections are now off by as much as $2 billion, a deficit that could trigger at least that much in new budget cuts or tax hikes.
The potential shortfall, which legislators suggest is another sign of the bad economy, comes as lawmakers review a budget proposal that cuts the property tax rebate program and other services and raises taxes on higher incomes, cigarettes, liquor and wine.
Gov. Jon Corzine’s press secretary, Robert Corrales, confirmed today that revenue collections may now come in $1.5 billion to $2 billion short of what the governor has projected for the end of the current budget year and the new one that begins on July 1.
“This is truly unprecedented, leaving some people who’ve been in government a long time pretty shaken,” Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Barbara Buono (D-Middlesex) said.
“If it sells at asking price, the seller would have lost $375,000. Closer to $425,000 when you include the transaction costs associated with the sale. At asking, this property is selling at a discount of approximately 25% off it’s 2007 sale price.”
Drum roll, here’s Richard.
He wanted a wake up call if prices dropped 5%. Wake up call? How about a quart of plasma?
I’d like to nominate the following for the not yet created “fantasy listing hall of fame”.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Nutley-Twp_NJ_07110_1104007456
“Assembly Budget Officer Joe Malone (R-Burlington) said the public “is looking for answers from the governor.”
From # 6,
Answers from Corzine? He could sit on the bench, next to Vince Lombardi, for a year. Yet, he would look at you like a deer in headlights if you asked him how to execute 3 yards and a cloud of dust.
I’d like to nominate the following for the not yet created “fantasy listing hall of fame”.
Oh, I’ll be posting the winner of that contest tomorrow.
What are these homes worth if the bank that owns them would rather tear them down?
Asset? Or liability?
New Homes Demolished in Victorville, CA
#8 Dink,
They live in the right town. nut-ley
No cram-downs for you:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jWSp_UKkI8aWcEcfph0Be1ODXMtAD97T3T100
Clotpoll says:
April 30, 2009 at 7:55 am
The French have it all on us:
-Sloth as a virtue.
-Food, wine.
-Decent football.
-First Lady who does s@x videos and naked pics.
but i HATE small portions. enjoying a nice bordeaux with the wife now, though. we usually put down two bottles during the week.
let the good times roll. until, of course, it gets tough on us.
Does anybody know where the metal chairs are from in Dink’s house?
I need 4 of those.
re 8: Double offset door scheme in the back really keeps any potential perps guessing. Love it!
Is dark (really dark, ala 19th century) big in Nutley? I would need a miner’s helmet to see in there.
Check this out “sold to highest bidder” on Sunday night in Basking Ridge. Good luck jack ass
http://cnj.craigslist.org/reo/1148438541.html
The outside of that house is about as uninspired as can be.
No reserve, huh? I bid one dollar, perhaps.
why so much shore guy? a whole dollar - r u crazy
#8 “fantasy listing hall of fame”
They’re asking over $1.1M, and they begin the Interior Features section with “Carbon Monoxide Sensor”. Aren’t these like $10 at a Home Depot?
Another thing.. This real estate correction is like watching a glacier travel south. Looking at Grim’s charts from Tues, it seems like we have years to go yet until prices are “normal”.
Hey,
It meets the minimum standard for offer, acceptance, and consideration.
I asked this a few nights ago to no avail…
Anyone know any good mulch installers?
Rev,
I hear the oven has a metal rack in it too.
Stu,
The people who delivered it don’t have staff available at an extra fee?
None of whom I called Shore.
Fear of swine flu perhaps?
How many yards are you getting?
cubic yards, that is
Shore :)
..and the bulbs STAY in the light fixtures for the next lucky owner..
The end is nigh…the sacred vows of marriage are casually dismissed…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090501/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_saudi_child_marriage
Rev,
15 watt ones, anyway
So, if someone lists their house in today’s market, is it safe to assume that they:
1. Need to sell for financial reasons,
2. Need to sell to satisfy an estate,
3. Don’t care about money,
or
4. Have no idea what’s going on?
I’m trying, unsuccessfully, to think of other reasons..
I know that neighborhood well; I grew up on that street, at #43, which is a split-level that’s just had a family room addition put on. A number of the older 1950’s houses (there were two styles; the split and a slightly larger bi-level/ranch-ish house) have been torn down and houses like this built. There is one builder who has built a bunch of them. They are actually pretty attractive as bash ‘n’ builds go, certainly more attractive than the giant stucco monsters they’ve been building here in Bergen.
I know exactly where this house is. I was canvassing there in my old neighborhood for a Congressional race when this house was being built back in 2006. It looked like a pretty nice house and I know he was selling it for around $1.4 mil. What’s interesting is that a number of houses in that neighborhood are still the older houses and they look pretty strange next to these.
This neighborhood is really only marginally Brigadoon. It’s at the farthest fringe. The other side of Woodbrook Circle has Cranford at the end of its backyard, and Kenilworth is only a few traffic lights away. It’s Brigadoon for people who can’t really afford Brigadoon, or at least it was when I lived there from 1965-1978.
You can add the following other reasons that currently exist for sellers I know:
5. sellers are getting a divorce, or
6. need to move elsewhere due to a job transfer or change of jobs, or
7. need to move elsewhere due to a situation with their children that causes them to need to change what school district the children attend.
RE Mulch:
I need 8 yards, but the next door neighbor needs 14. I’m looking for natural cedar mulch. 22 yards should be enough for some discounting I would think.
who else is watching this triple OT game? great stuff
Jill, #34
I just took a trip of the neighborhood through google street view, and your observation is spot on. Older ranches and splits interspersed with McMansions.
This area will go in the time capsule.
http://tiny.cc/wZ5S4
Re: Mega-Comp-Killer.
I could think of a lot of others ways I’d like to spend the $24K in taxes. Even if I made the kind of money needed to buy into the neighborhood, I can’t imagine myself ever resigning myself to that bill. ..and people say renters are throwing money down the drain.
Stress tests delayed. Anybody else get the feeling that they are making this up as they go along? Shotgun weddings?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPVqgPJeDyzE&refer=home
kodiak @ 35,
Good points. I guess I didn’t think long enough. :)
regarding
5: that would mainly be financial, no? I could see if neither wants to live in a house of memories.
6: I didn’t think of a company forcing a transfer - can’t imagine it happens often in this climate. If selling to take a different job (currently have one), must be a heck of a good job to go through the trouble.
7. I don’t understand, but I don’t have children yet (tho a peanut is on the way!)
40,
Why are they even bothering at this point? Have they any credibility left with the people they are trying to convince?
#20 shore guy
I was thinking at least $5 and a slice of pizza.
Stu says:
April 30, 2009 at 8:58 am
Trust me, it was one the most difficult purchases I ever made in my life. :P
————-
Same here, then I realized that $200-$300 loss in 2-3 years is not such a big deal. Quality and handling are amazing
bi says:
April 30, 2009 at 2:04 pm
here is another sign showing that this recession is a mild one if it ever happened: soon after 5:00 pm, this board becomes a ghost city each day.
———————————–
Yeap. Working our asses on side jobs
Barbara says:
April 30, 2009 at 2:37 pm
anyone catch the Children of Chernobyl on HBO? I’ll take hampster wheels over nuke energy. Didn’t change my mind, just strengthened my resolve.
———————————-
Saw that. But do you know what actually happened there? They were doing a very stupid experiment. I know a very good site build in FLASH showing what’s hapened in real time. If anybody intrested I think I can translate it for you. My family moved in a city which was 60 miles from Chernobyl in 1986, my father came there in April (blowout happened it May), and the rest of the family had no choice but to move in August. And I’m still kicking :)
yikes (14)-
No small portions in the Sud-Ouest.
kettle1 says:
April 30, 2009 at 3:06 pm
On the night of the reactor accident at Chernobyl, the primary and secondary b safety systems were shut down and the reactor went unstable. being positively unstable by design, it went kaboom
————————-
Not exactly, but very close. After they pulled out emergency and manual graphite sticks in order to stir the reactor to the half of nominal power, while pumping double flow of water, they cut the auxulary pump to do the experiment - that’s what made it kaboom
“(blowout happened it May)”
lack of memory
For the last several months, I’ve grown more apathetic toward new gov’t initiatives/ bailouts/ “fixes” to restore “confidence”. How does all this manipulation, shady accounting, and “stimulus” restore confidence?
You can animate the dead if you jolt ‘em with enough juice.
May have been posted before. More today from Mish on brand-new CA houses facing the bulldozer. Seems to be a growing trend.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/extreme-home-makeover-depression_30.html
Forgot to mention the city I was born. Once a year my father, being a dean of a university, had to order windows cleaned up. Guess with what? Hydrogen fluoride! Nothing else was working
In Donbass area (Ukraine now) I guess it was worse in 80s than it’s now in China.
I’m still kicking..
Rev,
Congrats on your peanut on the way. For most people, once you become a parent, you will do just about anything that you think would be best for your kid, even if it causes you huge financial sacrifice. School culture, school teachers and/or administrators, and other aspects of school (which you cannot tell by school rankings etc.) can vary tremendously from one district to another, and you really can’t know which district is best (or which is a bad fit) for your particular kid until he/she/and you actually are there and experiencing it. I would not have been able to understand it before I had kids, but I understand it fully now that I do, and I actually know more than one family selling now because they became unhappy with their school district (even though they originally moved to where they are now mostly because they thought the school district was the best place for their kids).
From the previous thread, corrected
Barbara says:
April 30, 2009 at 2:37 pm
anyone catch the Children of Chernobyl on HBO? I’ll take hampster wheels over nuke energy. Didn’t change my mind, just strengthened my resolve.
———————————-
Saw that. But do you know what actually happened there? They were doing a very stupid experiment. I know a very good site build in FLASH showing what’s happened in real time. If anybody interested I think I can translate it for you. My family moved in a city which was 60 miles from Chernobyl in 1986, my father came there in April, and the rest of the family had no choice but to move in August. There was no warning, nothing. May the 1st people went to the usual parade on the streets! My father died being in a surgery room due to malpractice (56 yo), but I have a lot of friends whose parents died from cancer.
kodiak,
Thanks!
And thanks again for the info — I haven’t been considering the diff school cultures when looking at homes.. I’d just check simple stats like SAT scores, etc. Like you said, it’s probably impossible to tell until your kid is in there, but it’s good to keep in mind that our next move might not be so permanent if the school’s a bad fit.
So it looks like NJ will have a revenue shortfall of 1.5-2.0 billion this year. Should be fun to watch Corslime weasel around this one. And Carla Katz is set to join the “Jersey Guys” for a series of interviews during the election season starting on Monday. Is she going on 101.5 to defend the dirtbag or put the final nails in his coffin? Whatever, should be an entertaining few months.
I think we should try giving capitalism a try again. This gov’t-managed banking and auto industry stuff is confusing. “Cash for clunkers”. This is another gov’t econ plan, plain and simple.
From the Philly Inquirer:
Homebuilder T.H. Properties files for bankruptcy
T.H. Properties L.P., the Harleysville home builder that abruptly ceased operations last week as lenders and suppliers began closing in, yesterday filed for Chapter 11 protection in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Philadelphia.
The filing means that the builder, which has 12 working developments in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, will seek to reorganize its operation in an effort to resume business.
Buyers have hundreds of thousands of dollars in deposits on houses in THP developments, while people who went to settlement in the days and weeks before THP suspended operations still await completion of landscaping and driveways.
From the Jersey Journal:
STATE A.G. SAYS LOAN CREEPS STOLE HOMES
An 84-year-old Bayonne woman is among the victims of two Union City companies that promised to help homeowners facing foreclosure save their homes, officials say.
But instead of saving people’s homes, the companies purchased the houses at deep discounts, saddled the owners-turned-tenants with even bigger monthly payments, and in a number of cases, including that of the Bayonne woman, evicted the previous owners, officials say.
Greenspan Backs Increase in Foreign Skilled Workers
If the U.S. were to open its doors more widely to skilled foreign workers, those employees would bring their families to the country and move into vacant housing units, “the current glut of which is depressing prices of American homes,” Mr. Greenspan said at a Senate Judiciary Immigration Subcommittee hearing. The number of available temporary visas for highly skilled workers is “far too small to meet the need, especially in the near future as the economy copes with the forthcoming retirement wave of skilled baby boomers,” Mr. Greenspan said. “Greatly expanding quotas for highly skilled workers would lower wage premiums of skilled over lesser skilled,” Mr. Greenspan said. Current skill shortages in the U.S. create a “privileged elite” with noncompetitive high incomes. Those skill shortages exist because “we are shielding our skilled labor force from world competition,” he said.
Greenspan? Shrug.
Buyers Spring Back into Favorite Real Estate Markets
But the STEALS are in the Las Vegas luxury homes segment. Incredible estates in elite neighborhoods and fully furnished high rise condos in Trump Towers on the Strip are selling for literally 30 to 50 cents on the dollar. It’s not too late to buy a townhome in Lake Las Vegas that originally sold at $850k for under $200k with superb golf and lake views!
#60…
The number of available temporary visas for highly skilled workers is “far too small to meet the need, especially in the near future as the economy copes with the forthcoming retirement wave of skilled baby boomers,” Mr. Greenspan said.
—
I think it is BS. If we discount demand from body shops, the number of visas available is fairly high. Talking about shortage of labor when there is soaring unemployment is like, hmmm, cutting interest rates when credit bubbles are forming.
#62 is a press release from a set of Realtors.
Spring Home Sales Damp, But Young Buyers Bloom
Spring is the strongest season for selling homes. But after three years of dismal sales, most real estate agents are frustrated. They keep hoping this spring finally will thaw out the housing market and get sales moving again.
But two reports on homes sales suggest the market still has far more dead weeds than green shoots.
The big problem is the huge backlog of unsold homes. Builders have to wait more than 10 months to unload the new homes they have completed. It’s the same problem for owners of existing homes. Real estate agents say it still is taking nearly 10 months for a house to sell. That’s a little quicker than last year, but not by much.
#60 - I guess he is trying to sell houses. It might be NAR has hired him as consultant, after firing David Lereah.
#62 - That paragraph just gives you how much things have fallen in vacation home market.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124112509277274533.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
More on abandoned foreclosed homes in CA -
“Banks: What’d I Do Wrong, Officer? Cop: You’ve Got Algae in the Pool, Sir”
Fearing Blight, a California Town Makes it a Crime to Neglect Foreclosed Homes
“In March of last year, Mr. Gilbert penned a new law requiring banks to register homes the moment they went into foreclosure so the city could monitor if they were being maintained. Fines could pile up past $25,000 if the properties were found to be in disrepair. In a bold move that took its measures beyond mere civil offense, failure to comply was deemed a criminal misdemeanor that could lead to an arrest.”
Don’t worry folks…Larry Summers will handle this.
Essex (68) -
I never thought that I would approach the level of hatred which I felt for Paulson, but Summers has proved me wrong.
#67 Banks getting fined….
This should speed up the rate at which
foreclosed homes are dumped back on the market.
grim (61)-
You’d think he would want to spend his golden years at the dog track.
vic (69)-
They are both despicable, in their own way.
I think both should be tried on treason charges and executed.
(70) serenity -
“Banks getting fined….This should speed up the rate at which foreclosed homes are dumped back on the market.”
They have been fining banks for quite some time here. (That is why you saw the tear-downs from yesterday in a near-by community.)
These folks in Indio are threatening to throw people in jail.
I was thinking the same thing.
Cindy (73)-
Of course, in my neck of NJ, a house can be abandoned for years, be overgrown and start falling down…and no court or judge will do anything.
My affluent town sports several Munster House/Bates Motels that have been festering for decades.
Buffett gets a whole day on CNBC to talk his book.
Sheesh.
33 & 35 - The reasons you list are probably the truth, but I have been hitting some open houses here in Hoboken, and I can’t tell you how many times I hear “The Sellers don’t really need to sell, they are just testing the market.” Apparently there are almost 600 sellers in Hoboken that are just “testing” the markets.
The Sunday open house tour in Hoboken has become a terrific source of amusement for me. Every week that passes, I push my purchasing timeline out by another month. Right now, I feel comfortable not buying anything until Fall 2010.
boken (76)-
When prospects tell me on the phone that “we don’t have to sell” or “we’re not giving our house away”, I advise them not to market the home and to plan on staying put anywhere from 5-7 years.
That either gets me an appointment, or gets me a dial tone. Inevitably, the “dial-tone people” show up 1-2 weeks later as egregiously-overpriced listings.
“just testing the market” = trolling desperately for a sucker
Sellers don’t test markets like this. The market tests sellers.
76 - why someone is selling is not a material fact about the property so its not something the buyer has a right to know( unless they’re selling because of the crumbling foundation) and the listing agent actually has an obligation not to tell the buyer that information as it can put their client in a compromised position. Exception if the seller expressly directs them to tell, in which case you might see ‘motivated seller’ in the listing. therefore, you will almost always be lied to about motivation.
ruggles (79)-
Virtually every agent in NJ violates this obligation.
Why test for outcomes that any nincompoop can already predict?
If failure to maintain a home is a misdemeanor, then walking away from an underwater ATM should be a felony.
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for an epic fail:
May 1 (Bloomberg) — “The Federal Reserve is close to offering investors five-year loans to buy commercial mortgage- backed securities, granting an industry request, a person familiar with the matter said.
The decision on extending the term of such loans under the Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility isn’t yet final, the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said yesterday. The Wall Street Journal reported the state of the decision earlier yesterday. In December, the Fed lengthened the term of TALF loans to three years from one year.
Fed officials had been considering a compromise of charging higher fees after three years. That would be aimed at giving a greater incentive for investors to borrow from the Fed and helping restart markets for commercial mortgage-backed securities, while protecting the Fed’s flexibility to raise interest rates in the broader economy once consumer demand recovers.
“It continues to illustrate that it’s just a patchwork quilt of trying to shore up whichever asset du jour happens to be in trouble,” said Julian Mann, a manager of asset-backed bonds at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles. In addition, “the taxpayer is encumbered for another few years,” Mann said.
Fed policy makers had been wary of loosening limits on the TALF because longer loans would make it more difficult to tighten credit if inflation picks up. At the same time, rejecting the request may have further stymied the TALF after a slow start that’s hindering Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to revive the economy.
Averting a Meltdown
Lobbyists in the commercial mortgage-backed securities industry have said the Fed needs to provide loans of at least five years to better match debt terms and avert a meltdown in the market.
The Fed started the TALF in March, lending to investors buying securities backed by auto, credit-card, education and small-business loans. In coming months, the program will expand to include securities backed by commercial real-estate loans.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apX0Vu7khgHU
fire 48
fire,
yes i agree,
but it went kabooom because it was a positive unstable reaction which will accelerate and runaway if not properly controlled. A negatively unstable reaction would have simply shut down due to a increasing temperature decreasing the rate of reaction until it became self limiting and shut down without any intervention from the operators.
The accident was a culmination of poor design choices combined with politics dictating operation
“They keep hoping this spring finally will thaw out the housing market and get sales moving again.”
[65],
Same tune as last year and 2007. They can check their calendar for Super Bowl XLIV. Good Luck.
For the comp killer, if you are at 1.075 mil asking, will the closing price end up at $999,990 to avoid the luxury tax?
“Why test for outcomes that any nincompoop can already predict?”
Clot,
Just another version of financial engineering. Blackbox simulation can spit out any desired result you want. A bunch of worthless assumptions.
I’d like the combination of full free open immigration combined with the abolition of all welfare and state support. Those who are willing to work, will thrive. Those who think a certain standard of living is guaranteed thanks to the happy accident of being born an American, would be disappointed. But the economy would surely zoom, drawing productive people from around the world. However, the Americans who didn’t bother to invest in being globally competitive producers of economic value would surely get squeezed, and of course they would never allow such laws to be passed.
So instead, the same thing happens in the global economy, in very slow motion, as productive enterprises move to the low cost producers, since they are not allowed to immigrate here.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/weak-imports-goose-gdp/
“How Weak Imports Goose GDP”
from The Big Picture
“In other words, without the impact of slowing imports, annualized GDP contraction would have been about 12%.”
Am I understanding this correctly?
Does that mean that the 6.2% number everyone was excited about a few days ago isn’t so good after all?
“Greenspan Backs Increase in Foreign Skilled Workers”
His wisdom put us in this deep hole, imagine what this advice will do to America.
71…Why? Every bet he placed lost.
How bad is it when the banks get to fudge their numbers and they still can’t pass the government stress test?
#22 revelations; I think we have had a nice swift down turn from this time last year to now.
The 2 years prior ( from peak), I agree no real movement.
No leverage? Well, on a 500K home, where else on the street could you get leverage of 500,000-1? Actually, more like 525,000/550,000-1.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iW5qKYfqALE&ref=patrick.net
Not to brag, but since it is my only claim to fame on this blog.
I must point out, that I coined the phrase Brigadoon for Westfield,when Richard used to visit here.
“Am I understanding this correctly?”
Cindy[89],
Spot on.
Imports are subtracted from GDP. The 12% drop, represents depression level #’s.
96 - I vote we change the name to East Plainfield.
3b [95],
Yes you did. Where is that guy Richard?
95 that is
BC (98)-
Hoist by his own petard.
Or, his wife’s.
(94) BC - Re: 2005
B. Frank - What a flaming jerk!
“Missing a very important point….
Not the degree of leverage that we have seen elsewhere (dot.com)….You’re not going to see the collapse….So we continue to push for home ownership…
Yesterday, Bloomberg reiterated that it is against NY Law to question or report illegal aliens seeking Medical Care. Interesting that their is a Law against reporting people breaking a different Law. American Law has become completely dysfunctional.
Homeboken- love that….I have heard the really testing the waters as well. Always a chuckle. The last one my wife and I looked at was listed at 419k, realter told us they could not go any lower, as they would be taking a loss. If they didn’t sell it, they would just stay there or rent it Told the realtor, they would have to because I had seen better places for less.
Long story short it is now 379k for 1000 square feet. . Awkward layout two bedroom. Weird duplx. Still further to go.
#98 BC Bob: Hey, maybe the Brigadoon comp killer is Richards’ House!!
Cindy [101],
They should send Mish’s bulldozer to DC; Congress, Treasury and Fed. That’s called a start.
Other than this website I have never even heard of Brigadoon, Upper Saddle River, Alpine etc. as rich NJ towns but never Brigadoon, to me it sounds like someone who has a Loaded Ford Pinto bragging how great their car is to the base model Ford Pinto owners. Really, now bragging rights to a town no one has ever heard of in the middle of nowhere, I can see me out at a party, person A lives in Park Slope, Person B Manhasset, Person C Alpine and Person D lives in Brigadoom, plus what a horrible name, Brig means prison and Doom, what is it a doomed prision?
Stan/Homeboken,
Your comments contradict those from our resident mall expert, Frank.
Stress test results really have no business being public, after all none of the 19 banks are going under and banks that need capital or help will get it.
Lets say I am a car dealer I go to auction and buy four used Honda Accords. I do my own stress tests of all four cars. Car one is perfect, Car two is scratched, Car three needs a tune up and brakes, and car four has a bad tranni. I plan on fixing all four cars up perfectly before I sell them. If I released the results of my stress tests most people would want car one and maybe car two. Car three I would have to knock some money off and car four would be very hard to sell. A used car dealer would no do it as it makes no business sense yet this is what we want the Fed to do. Heck teh Fed do CAMELS tests right now every year and it is a FELONY to release results as banks that score low may have a run on the bank.
John,
You are absolutely correct regarding the attitude of many. I had someone from New Brunswick turn down a NJ based position because the first 4-6 weeks, training, would be based in our WS office. It was too much of a burden to travel to NY for the initial 4-6 weeks. Oh, one other item, has been unemployed for the last 6 months.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53T8X120090501?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
Well the East Coast and West Coast might have something in common. We are both being taken by the same yahoos.
“Pension Kickbacks National Problem, NY’s Cuomo Says”
“This is all across the Nation, and it’s continuing today,” says the Democratic attorney general said on a conference call,”
John [108],
The only problem with your theory; the market already knows the condition of these dead institutions.
#106 John: It is Brigadoon,w ith an n.
The most likely origin of the name is Brig as in St Brigid, and doon from the Gaelic dun which menans fort, so we get St. Brigid’s fort.
And yes, I know, I can be a fount of worthless information.
#107,
What people say and what they do are 2 different things and it’s evident in the sales data for Hoboken. Condos are still selling for 2005/2006 prices.
I take it the unemployed guy isn’t married. I don’t think turning down a job after being unemployed for 6 months would go over well at home.
Frank,
Do you appear on the Career Builder’s commercials?
Fro, today’s NY Times:
Henri Bendel will close their clothing store and lay off 8% of its 250 employees.
They plan to focus their business on gifts and accessories only as the high end clothing sector continues to suffer in the recession that is not a recession as per bi.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/134548-roubini-johnson-join-government-advisory-panel
“Roubini, Johnson Join Government Advisory Panel”
“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has added Nouriel Roubini and Simon Johnson to their advisory panel.”
“In theory, Congress should listen to their advice….”
BC is coming over with a bulldozer if you don’t start paying attention!
Anyone have an opinion about buying a new car these days….the wife wants a Honda CRV…..seems like a good car. Is there a Honda dealer that anyone could recommmend?
Frank - Yes, condos are selling for 2005/2006 prices in Hoboken. But keep in mind the velocity. Averaging 6 sales per week and approaching 600 units in inventory. The inventory does not include units held by developers at Maxwell, Harborside and Garden Street Lofts which probably bring the total to closer to 700 units. I’m not math whiz but that looks like almost 2 years of inventory. Add in the 47% tax increase (advertised, more like 35% all in) and these market testers are about to receive an F.
re102 “Interesting that there is a Law against reporting people breaking a different Law. American Law has become completely dysfunctional.”
Agreed. Why is it that we allowed our Great Nation to blow through the event horizen? Forced tolerance of the intolerable, ridiculous laws, and incompetent politicos are du jour.
The law is in place to make sure that illegal aliens do not fear seeking medical care or police assistance. Regardless of which side of the immigration issue anyone stands on, common decency and common sense dictate that we don’t instill fear in people that need help.
Too often the marginalized members of society are the starting ground for not only illness but violence and crime that gets ignored until it affects someone more mainstream or “worth” protecting.
#119,
“Yes, condos are selling”
And that creates market prices.
With economy coming back, I think you are wishing for bargain prices that you may not see.
re: #108 - “bad tranni”
John are you going to liven this one up with a crying game tale from the early 80s?
Xmonger,
Its a long standing historical pattern. Once an empire achieves suptremacy, the risk taking behavior that allowing to become preminent is often abandoned as the empire is nto willing to risk its position as top dog. Over time the people and government of said empire become soft and risk adverse.
It happened in rome, it happened in ancient china, it has happened to the US. The stereotypical boomer over protectionism is a classic example. While the boomers played with BB guns, sling shots, and played on steel jungle gyms, they insist that their children wear full body padding before even looking at a bicycle and would not ever dream of letting their precious little snow flake touch a sling shot or BB gun ( my heavens would you let a child play with a weapon?!?!?!?) and have passed laws requiring that all jungle gyms must have at least 6 inches of goose down padding so little johnny or Suzy doesnt scrap a knee if they trip.
#121,
How about a common decency and common sense that dictate that I don’t pay for these criminals?? Have you thought of that?
Don’t pay for them. I don’t care. Let them die in the streets and be victims of rape, and serial killers.
You’re the better for it.
Frank-
Check the post I put up yesterday afternoon(on bberry, cut and paste is tough).
We are in 2004 prices for some properties in Hoboken already. Your argument used to be they aren’t falling at all. Now its 05/06.
These are some big losses, and these are the people who in my opinion got ahead of the curve….
I am willing to hear how we avoid 2004 as the next level down…
silera , frank,
you have 2 main choices,
accept them or kick them out and actually enforce the law. half measures cause more problems then they solve.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. April ISM index 40.1% vs. 36.3% March
U.S. April ISM expectations were 39.0%
UMichigan consumer sentiment up to 65.1 in April
April UMichigan sentiment above 62 expected
John (108)-
I like your analogy, comparing banks to four clunker auction cars. Very apt.
Frank # 122 - You are right, I am waiting. If I am wrong, so be it, I will live with that, but I am putting my money where my mouth is and waiting.
#122 frank:With economy coming back?
How can you say the economy is coming back, when unemployment is still rising, next Friday’s April release will show another 600K+ rise in unemployment #’s.
Define coming back? So are you saying that all will be well and people will be out buying condo’s in Hoboken shortly?
Are you of the belief that we are frozen in a 2005/06 time warp as far as prices, and that they cannot go any lower because you say so.
Perhaps you adhere to bi’s theory, that there is no recession.
Stan [127],
Is this what you are referring to?
stan says:
April 30, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Frank…….Hoboken is getting crushed,
Hoboken condos 11 sold
# 1 210 Jackson street closed for 420k, identical condo paid 500k in 2007 LOST 80K
#2 1222 washington, paid 412k in 2006, closed for 320k LOST 92k
#3 626 jefferson sold for 475,000 purchased in 1998 for 220k
#4 152 6th street sold for 314k last purchased for 175k in 2000(updated recently)
(smaller place sold for 35k more last year)
#5 1300 grand street, sold for 445k, bought from builder for 317k in 2005, (dp in 2003, these places are down 10-15% from peak pricing)
#6 700 1st street, sold for 475k, bought for 515k in 2004!!! Lost 40k in five years
#7 307 first street developer release sold for 408k, neighbor paid 467k 10/08 for identical unit across the hall
#8 bought for 470k, last purchase for 580k in 2006 (110k loss)
#9 510 Monroe St, sold for 5490k, last purchased for 530k in 2004
#10 129 willow, made a profit…..342k, last sold for 280 in 2005, was remodeled however
#11 904 jefferson, sold for 499k, purchased for 481k in 2005……An acquaintance of mine paid in the 500’s, was there a few weeks ago, nice building
Kettle - I agree. Neither will happen. It’s better to have the big illegal alien boogy man to hold hands with the abortion one and the gay marriage one to form the trifecta of useless and distractionary issues.
#127 stan:I am willing to hear how we avoid 2004 as the next level down…
I believe grim and clot have pointed out that in many cases, we are already back to 2004 pricing levels, in many areas.
grim/clot correct me if I am wrong in that belief.
Actually back in my “Javitt’s” days we never looked under the hood?
Sean says:
May 1, 2009 at 9:56 am
re: #108 - “bad tranni”
John are you going to liven this one up with a crying game tale from the early 80s?
“I like your analogy, comparing banks to four clunker auction cars. Very apt.”
Clot,
I thought John was talking about off balance sheet accounting; hide the results and mark to fantasy. It’s a FASB used car dealer, no?
BC Bob [9],
3 yards and a cloud of dust
I believe you’re talking about Bobby Duhon! ;)
“I believe you’re talking about Bobby Duhon! ;)”
Gary,
Not Tucker?
Municipal Bonds Post Best April in 20 Years Amid Subsidy Deals
By Jeremy R. Cooke
May 1 (Bloomberg) — Municipal bonds posted their biggest April gains in two decades as the advent of federally subsidized taxable offerings from state and local governments reduced new tax-exempt debt issues by about 29 percent from last year.
The Municipal Master Index, a gauge of total investment return compiled by Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch & Co., rose 2.5 percent last month, the best since the April 1989 gain of 3.3 percent. Another Merrill index of U.S. Treasury and federal agency securities lost more than 1 percent.
“It’s been a pretty strong run, but I still think we’re positioned for favorable relative performance” versus Treasuries, agencies and other high-quality assets, said R.J. Gallo, who oversees $600 million of municipal bonds as portfolio manager at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh.
BC Bob,
Who can ever forget Tucker but… he’ll never replace the greatest Jint of all time, Rocky Thompson! ;)
“Too often the marginalized members of society are the starting ground for not only illness but violence and crime that gets ignored until it affects someone more mainstream or “worth” protecting.”
Silera -
Well said. A virus does not look at your paycheck before infecting you.
[120, 121]
To paraphrase Montesquieu, a society is in trouble when it abandons the priniciples on which it was founded.
Looking at current events, it is clear that the USA is going to “change” and as such, it is no longer your father’s USA (which begs the question from the secession debate about which side is engaged in treason??? My view is that neither is, for political and legal reasons). Thus, the USA we know is basically a dead man walking. Whether we will be the worse for it remains to be seen—the o’bamanauts say no, everyone else says yes.
But immigration is a hard question. The country was founded by immigrants, and there was a fair degree of lawlessness in the immigrant communities of yore. Not much has changed.
What has changed is that the US is no longer a land of limitless wealth–the pie stopped growing sometime after Manifest Destiny was interred in the history books. As many here know, I tend to reduce issues to the irreducible so here is my take: The immigration debate is one more argument between competing groups over who gets a slice of pie. That’s it. Everything else is window dressing.
the O man’s comments yesterday on the Chrysler bankruptcy were unbelievable. the holders of the debt have a fiduciary duty to act in the best interest of their LPs. O says he doesn’t want to meddle in the economy any more than necessary. Well these types of statements are highly destructive and completely unnecessary. Hundreds of companies have gone bankrupt and why shouldn’t chrysler go down the same road? how are they different from packard, nash, studebaker, etc? very troubling to see a president attempt to coerce people into going against their clients best interests
YAY!! Abby Joseph Cohen is back.
“Cohen Says S&P 500 May Rise to 1,050 in Six to 12 Months”
BC - Is this an indicator that the top is in?
Had dinner last night in the city with some family from Ireland who came to town to shop and see some Broadway shows. Seems like there may be another lost generation in Ireland as there are no jobs to be had for the recent college grads even at fast food resturants.
Unemployment is skyrocketing about 11% now and expected to go to 20%. My family fully expects tens of thousands to leave in the next two years. About 35% of the population is under 25 years old and a large percentage are college grads.
Where they will go is anyone’s guess but it looks like they won’t be coming here to the US since immigration has been regularly banning people from entry for 10 years or more if they overstay their visa, and the diversity visas are hard to win in the lottery.
[144] skep,
Agreed. O’bama’s comments should have wealth running for the exits if things don’t improve.
I smell Skadden’s hand in this move.
“Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japan’s third-largest bank, will buy Citigroup’s Japanese brokerage and key investment banking units for $5.9 billion in a deal likely to reshape Tokyo finance and create a banking powerhouse.”
Nom,
as always you are very succinct. Immigration wasnt so much an issue when there was room for people to expand. Now that there is more frontier on whcih to expand, immigration of new populations will inherently conflict with existing populations.
This country was grown in large part on immigration with the purpose on conquering and filling the frontier lands. From a cold analytical stand point it makes sense to limit immigration once you no longer have a frontier to expand within.
The other issue is that the US government has chosen to use immigration to address the decreasing birth rate amongst US citizens. But then he have the whole constant growth = exponential growth which few politicians or economists seem to grasp.
#126,
What do you think when I don’t pay for my health care?? They take my house away. Illegals get the health care for free and they get to keep their house (in Mexico).
Bloomberg is on a roll today.
“Trump Says It’s a `Great Time’ to Buy Real Estate”
Yes, advice from a guy who has gone bankrupt many times over.
Unemployment is skyrocketing about 11% now and expected to go to 20%. My family fully expects tens of thousands to leave in the next two years. About 35% of the population is under 25 years old and a large percentage are college grads.
It has got to be bad, even the plumbers are headed home.
#151 - You sure it isn’t the “gal”?
#146 sean: My family members tell me many are going to Canada and Australia, but even there it is a struggle due to the recession that is not a recession as per bi.
I know it is in the blood to leave, but at this point they are going to have to stay, and figure it out.
It is much different now than when my parents came in the late 1940’s, when there was absolutely nothing over there.
Also the Irish-American support that was there in the 1980’s for illegals, much of it has gone, due to the absolutely horrible attitude of the Irish in Ireland towards America, and Americans in general.
Plus they did not learn to save for a rainy day, and squandered a lot of opportunities to build for the future. They went from coming out of the colonial shadow of Britain, to all of a sudden fancying themselves as trendy modern West Europeans. They have no one to legitimately blame but themselves this time.
By the way the trips to NYC to see shows and shop in Century 21 are fast coming to a close for them now.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chinas-gold-buy-raises-eyebrows/story.aspx?guid=%7B13486258%2D94EA%2D44E8%2DAEC4%2D3691693D6B42%7D&siteid=yhoof
China is increasing it’s gold reserves.
me too!
Thx BC…..
Second the comments on Irish. Cousins were in recently. Two moving, one to australia, one to new zealand for work….tech
Irish real estate is in the dumps, at the peak it was as expensive as beverly hills yet all that was there was back office IT operations for US banks. I would like to buy a little farm there when it hits bottom. That new fast money needs to be cleared out.
[60]SG
“Greatly expanding quotas for highly skilled workers would lower wage premiums of skilled over lesser skilled,” Mr. Greenspan said. Current skill shortages in the U.S. create a “privileged elite” with noncompetitive high incomes. Those skill shortages exist because “we are shielding our skilled labor force from world competition,” he said.
Well, if the ultimate goal is to have Wall-Mart employees at $7/hr, bus drivers at $11/hr, software engineers at $15/hr, Ph.D scientists at $17/hr then Greenspan is right. As long as we tweak the tax system enough to bring down the pay of the CEOs, bankers and hedge fund operators to the same levels (OK, let them get $30/hr if they are really good). For some reason I think he doesn’t really mean it. And besides, at these pay levels they won’t be able to solve our housing problems…
make [155],
There’s a reason they are pushing the IMF to sell shiny.
“That new fast money needs to be cleared out.”
John,
You are also referring to WS, US housing, Spain, China, Dubai, Poland, Australia, etc.. OOPS, the world.
I just received some spam mail with the most interesting spam evading subject line…
“Your rod will be faultless weapon.”
Hey bi:
http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet-extended
Those skill shortages exist because “we are shielding our skilled labor force from world competition,” he said.
Read: We can’t compete in manufacturing, nor can we compete in services/technology. Our only hope is to open up our borders and hope they skilled come here.
An auto industry expert on a live chat yesterday at Washpost:
“William J. Holstein: I would predict that Chrysler will never come out of bankruptcy. The fight in bankruptcy court is going to be so intense and so long that no one will want to buy their cars. The idea that they can go into bankruptcy and out in 30 to 60 days is just nuts.”
[161] stu
You are just trying to bait gator, aren’t you?
Make BC
China wants the IMF to sell gold because they have never agreed to the sale limits that banks have. China could make huge individual purchase of gold from the IMF while they would have to break the same purchases up into many smaller ones if they purchased on the open market
Nom (165):
“You are just trying to bait gator, aren’t you?”
Stop trying to play the instiGATOR.
Wha Wha.
Re greenspans comments:
Those skill shortages exist because “we are shielding our skilled labor force from world competition,” he said.
anyone have any doubt about where the US standard of living is going?
More from Ireland. Everything that dies someday comes back.
“My grandfather says this reminds him of the 1930s when everyone left for America and Australia,” he adds. “There is just no work here.”
Can’t wait for John’s comments regarding the Mrs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/business/worldbusiness/04ireland.html?pagewanted=all
Nom,
is the Nom family a big fan of swaddling? that the key for baby kettle
Our only hope is to open up our borders and hope they skilled come here.
Well, this used to be effective. I’m not sure if it still is.
[168} kettle
well, the whole idea that us (and the developed world in general) could be somehow not worse off in a globalization set-up is based on the very rapid global growth. Then, the developing countries (China, India, etc.) ships are rising so fast that ours doesn't have time to sink to meet them half-way. As the global growth slows to a crawl we'll inevitably sink unless we seriously start talking tariff and non-tariff protections. The only economist I know who entertains this option to any extent is Morici, so I assume the rest of them is loud enough for him not to be heard much.
re: #154 3b - Century 21? My family isn’t shanty anymore we only shop on 5th ave when we come to town.
His last name is Dunne and his wife is certainly done with him, couple more good trades and maybe I can afford to take her on as a thropy wife.
The Irish in Ireland ain’t what they used to be, when they joined the EU all types of sludge came in.
cobbler,
the main steam sales pitch has been that globalization will not hurt US lifestyle. I have heard the equivalent of that statement over and over.
Its just a snow job to keep the sheep complacent
Q What do you call an Irish Guy who lays in your backyard?
A Patty O’Furniture
Q What is Irish Foreplay?
A Brace yourself Bridget
Q What is an Irish 7 Course meal?
A A six pack on a potato
#173 sean: Ah now Sean don’t you know Cty 21 has lovely designer clothes at fantactic prices.
Sure, Fifth Avenue of course, but no trip to NYC is complete without a stop at Century.
vic [145],
I hope she’s right.
The debate on Skilled Immigration is critical, and I think esp to NJ and most big metro housing market.
Most educated white collar job holders in US had never in past had to compete with world market. They shrugged off pains manufacturing workers had to go thru from 70’s onward, saying these people did not get educated, and hence are facing realities. That is no longer true for them now. With Globalization, there is competition for White Collared Jobs. IT was leader, and now it is spreading to other fields such as BPO, Law, Tax etc… Granted there are quality related issues, but cost savings were significant to overlook them. Having said there there are primarily 2 alternatives from Immigration perspective.
1. Become restrictive and do not allow skill based immigration.
2. Allow skill based immigration with some check and balances.
Both have pros and cons and overlaps. Most skilled workers would like restrictions, but the question is what is better for the whole country in long run. If one sees the pie as growing, option 2 is better. If one sees the pie as shrinking, option 1 is better. You just need to choose your pie.
“Q What is an Irish 7 Course meal?”
J,
A six of Guinness and a shot of Jameson’s.
There’s a reason they are pushing the IMF to sell shiny.
BC,
I regret selling a small piece of shiny to dump the money into SRS. Once SRS really takes off then it’s back to 90% shiny allocation.
From MarketWatch:
Ford U.S. April sales down 31.6% to 134,401 units
#181 - Texas hedge,
Grim,
hedging is boring. Gambling is fun.
Grim,
Have you ever met anyone who has gone broke investing opposite BI.
3b - when were shanty it used to be Woodbury Commons was the destination.
Now I am going to a wedding at Dromoland Castle over memorial day weekend.
http://www.dromoland.ie/
Some fall harder than others.
““An explanation about why the decline in imports is helping GDP growth. As you know, imports are subtracted from GDP. Because imports are declining in absolute terms, you get a positive effect from a negative negative. Just to be clear as to what this chart is telling us: the drop in imports contributed 6.05 percentage points to the GDP growth rate.
What this means is that without the contribution from imports, GDP declined at 12.15% annual rate in Q1. In other words, all of the domestic activity was, as the employment numbers suggested, in free fall! Now, this has some important implications for the profile of growth going forward. When imports stop dropping, and they will, the sign on this term will go back to its normal negative, and when it does, it will expose the true growth rate of the domestic economy. We had best hope that GPDI has gotten back on track by the time the positive effect of negative import growth wears off.””
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
May Day turns violent in Turkey, Germany, Greece
ISTANBUL (Reuters) – May Day protesters clashed with riot police in Germany, Turkey and Greece on Friday while thousands angry at the government’s responses to the global financial crisis took to the streets in France.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090501/wl_nm/us_europe_protests_2
Clot, I think you are the one who called it. Kudos.
#173 - Sean - My family isn’t shanty anymore we only shop on 5th ave when we come to town.
;) - I have no illusions, I’m absolutely shanty and like my Viktor & Rolf at least %50 off.
Speaking of shopping, has anyone heard any rumors about Saks? I really was in C21 on Sat and couldn’t help notice the metric tonnage of Versace w/ Saks labels. This wasn’t the cast offs (odd sizes, weird patterns, etc) that C21 usually has. This was all stuff in normal sizes, patterns, that sells out at Saks before it ever gets to C21. Very noticeable.
x (187)-
Somebody cue up the Internazionale.
“May Day protesters”
[187],
Actually, they were subscribers to Bi’s blackbox.
Wow, up to 3.20 on the 10y.
Recession over?
#185 sean: Sounds like a blast.
Maybe with Bush gone, and their economic problems, they might be a little nicer and have lost some of the attitude.
#191 grim:Recession over?
Depression on!
BC (190) -
“Actually, they were subscribers to Bi’s blackbox.”
ROFL!!
“Recession over?”
JB,
No, just a bull market in supply.
silera @126,
“Let them die in the streets and be victims of rape, and serial killers.”
???
I’d say that our first priority, then, is fixing our problem with rapists and serial killers.
Less Skilled Immigration is more like it.
SG says:
May 1, 2009 at 12:03 pm
The debate on Skilled Immigration is critical, and I think esp to NJ and most big metro housing market.
From MarketWatch:
Nissan U.S. April sales drop 37.8% to 47,190 units
Daimler U.S. April sales fall 30.7%
Ford U.S. April sales down 31.6% to 134,401 units
Porsche U.S. April sales drop 35.3%
P.S. I think everyone should have access to protection and medical care. But I don’t think a system whereby one group pays through the nose for other groups to pay nothing. Everyone contributes, everyone gets access.
I just didn’t think your argument was 100% fair, that’s all.
re: 187
Gotta love the greeks. No spring day is too beautiful for a good riot.
Aah, May Day, let me grab my Che t shirt and frollick amongst my comrades.
#198 - Those are some pretty ugly numbers. Especially Nissan. None of foreign manu’s have idled plants yet, have they?
While China is making deals for materials, energies, metals and ag, we are fleecing debt buried taxpayers to prop up the dead. By the way, this does not include the bill coming from the fed, to the treasury.
http://www.federalbudget.com/
#83
“The Federal Reserve is close to offering investors five-year loans to buy commercial mortgage- backed securities, granting an industry request, a person familiar with the matter said.”
with one hand they attempt to entice investors, but with the other they repeatedly attempt to smack them down.
Random thought:
Why doesn’t congress have a hearing and call in consumers and small business owners to explain to America why they’re not borrowing more money? That could get all red-faced and exclaim, “Credit is the lifeblood of our economy!! America wants to know why won’t you go out there and get a jumbo mortgage?? We gave you low interest rates, and first time home buyer credits, and increased loan limits! Why don’t you help your country emerge from this downturn!”
That’s the other side of credit coin, is it not?
Rev [205],
The other side of the coin is buried. Our disposable income/debt ratio is greater than it was during the Great D. How about a bad bank for consumer debt? Next on the agenda?
Got demand?
The immigration and housing argument is so dumb. People come here to get a job then they buy a house, but when there are no jobs, they won’t come here to buy a house. They are broke, that’s why they come here.
#206 BC Bob: Might as well. Pay off everybody’s consumer debt, and start over.
Well this isn’t pretty…
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=17523
#205,
How about congress have a hearing and call in all those people that defaulted on their mortgages and ask them why they lied to get a loan and are deadbeats??
BC,
I was reading something the other day questioning the constitutionality of some of the big $ gov’t efforts to “fix” the economy. In my opinion, it’s a valid line of inquiry. Why don’t we hear more about this?
Are the authors just making noise, or do you think their is some truth to claims that we’re dancing around the very building blocks of our system?
If so, how can it be stopped when the guardians of our laws are breaking them?
#202 toshiro: No, No, No, what is wrong with you!!
These numbers show that the recession is on the wane, and the economy is starting to turn around.
Pl
Kettle1/other energy traders/researchers-
Did anyone see this announcement?
CADDO PARISH, La. — A massive natural-gas discovery here in northern Louisiana heralds a big shift in the nation’s energy landscape. After an era of declining production, the U.S. is now swimming in natural gas.
Even conservative estimates suggest the Louisiana discovery — known as the Haynesville Shale, for the dense rock formation that contains the gas — could hold some 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That’s the equivalent of 33 billion barrels of oil, or 18 years’ worth of current U.S. oil production. Some industry executives think the field could be several times that size.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124104549891270585.html#printMode
Looks like about 10 years worth of all the US natural gas consumption (based on the chart linked below) could be produced from just this one field in LA. Some think maybe 3x that.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
grim says:
April 30, 2009 at 10:44 am
No, I’m serious, however I’m not talking short-term.
I still feel we’re in a longer-term demographic shift towards re-urbanism. My thoughts about suburbia being a failed experiment have been shared here on a number of occasions.
ex-urbs, or suburbs? are you talking about ‘failed experiment’ like driving 2 hrs to a major city daily for work? i like to think i read everything here, but i dont recall these thoughts of yours, and im certainly curious …
Pretty sure Gator can find a UofF version, but Stu may have a hard time finding Montclair State.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30350785/
Frank,
Can you point to the recession in any of these? I cant seem to find it.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/april-economic-summary-in-graphs.html
“How about congress have a hearing and call in all those people that defaulted on their mortgages and ask them why they lied to get a loan and are deadbeats??”
Frank,
Why would Congress do this? They are the perpetuators.
[189] Comrade Clotpoll
Here ya go (modern version):
Stand up, all victims of oppression
For the tyrants fear your might
Don’t cling so hard to your possessions
For you have nothing, if you have no rights
Let racist ignorance be ended
For respect makes the empires fall
Freedom is merely privilege extended
Unless enjoyed by one and all
Chorus:
So come brothers and sisters
For the struggle carries on
The Internationale
Unites the world in song
So comrades come rally
For this is the time and place
The international ideal
Unites the human race
Let no one build walls to divide us
Walls of hatred nor walls of stone
Come greet the dawn and stand beside us
We’ll live together or we’ll die alone
In our world poisoned by exploitation
Those who have taken, now they must give
And end the vanity of nations
We’ve but one Earth on which to live
And so begins the final drama
In the streets and in the fields
We stand unbowed before their armour
We defy their guns and shields
When we fight, provoked by their aggression
Let us be inspired by like and love
For though they offer us concessions
Change will not come from above
Nom,
Speaking of Snuggies. I have a few friends in Vegas who plan to go to the poker table in Snuggies. They plan to pull out all kinds of things while they play. I think when they pull out the foot-long hoagie, they will probably get the boot.
Another guy plans to tape the hijinx with a hidden camera.
I’m no legal expert, but to understand more, I found myself googling the constitution and articles about our flouting it.
IMHO, public fear should be greatest when our leaders circumvent our founding principles in the name of “unprecedented circumstances” or “systemic risk” or “economic emergency”.
Bob 206
Our disposable income/debt ratio is greater than it was during the Great D
I actually found a trove of data on this and you are 100% correct. Unfortunately its behind a paywall and i cant get full access unless someone wants the info bad enough to fund it.
Wll, I’m off in search of a green shoot.
TGIF all!
Hubba [215],
The new buzz word is stabilizing. Goodbye goldilocks, subprime, alt-a, derivatives, cdo’s, etc.. We are crashing[stabilizing] at 80 miles an hour rahter than 120 miles an hour.
Yes, the good news is the cancer is not spreading as fast. The bad news, the cancer is terminal.
grim says:
May 1, 2009 at 11:37 am
Those skill shortages exist because “we are shielding our skilled labor force from world competition,” he said.
Read: We can’t compete in manufacturing, nor can we compete in services/technology. Our only hope is to open up our borders and hope they skilled come here.
I am not sure about skill shortages….
I my field - Chemistry thousands are unemployed. The problem - they can nto afford to accept 30,000$/yars salary as for example in NJ with family it is impossible to exist on it.
Now, No offence to immigrants 0 I am one myself they come from very bad condi6ions and quality of life, they have no problem to have 5-6 families living in single family house and share expences. it is still improvements over Bamboo Huts/dormitories in China or Slums of Deli.
So in effect Greenspan suggests, that skilled american workforce should accept quality of life similar to that of China and India OR BE REPLACED WITH IMMIGRANTS FROM THOUSE COUNTRIES.
But wait it is all for the best of AMERICA! and American people!!!
There is no Gator baiting this weekend. Stu is off to AC and I will be spending time at Monmouth Medical with a friend who is likely going to be delivering a baby soon at 24-25 weeks. Anyone have any recommendations for neonatologists that practice there? If so please get my email from Grim and email me offline.
From MarketWatch:
Toyota U.S. April sales fall 41.9% to 126,540
Rev 211
Are the authors just making noise, or do you think their is some truth to claims that we’re dancing around the very building blocks of our system?
If so, how can it be stopped when the guardians of our laws are breaking them?
you know the answer to both of those. As long as you let criminals run the system you cannot expect change. jefferson directly addressed those questions on a number of occasions
#143
“The immigration debate is one more argument between competing groups over who gets a slice of pie. That’s it. Everything else is window dressing.”
totally agree. the people who don’t think illegal immigration is a problem are generally well to do liberals who do not fear getting made redundant in their jobs and have the option to live in neighborhoods where their children aren’t forced to share schools with illegal immigrants. but most blue collar workers whether dem or repud have a problem with it because it threatens their livlihood and takes resources away from their children.
Frank says:
May 1, 2009 at 1:04 pm
The immigration and housing argument is so dumb. People come here to get a job then they buy a house, but when there are no jobs, they won’t come here to buy a house. They are broke, that’s why they come here.
Frank - there are always jobs. If immigrant is willing to accept 50% of american’s citizen salary and he is here legally admitted to work - NO COMPANY WOULD KEEP AMERICAN CITIZEN. At least NO FOR-PROFIT company.
How they can accept it - see my previous posts. I live next to iselin - few weeks ago we have TV special about Iselin on local TV. Iselin issued over 1800 citations in 2008 for breaking occupancy regulations. 1800!!! Iselin si small town!
In one case there was 35!!! people living in 4 bedroom/2 bath home. neighbours actually complained to cops because there was no place to park their cars and a lot of traffic.
if you fit 35 people in one house - lets say it is 8 families - 500K mortgage for that house is shared between at least 8 working adults.
There is no babysitting expences. Utilities are shared as well.
So all of the sudden 20-30K salary is enough for living and saving.
So in effect, they chose to accept lower standard of living and also forcing everybody around them to accept this lower standard of living as well by accepting smaller salaries.
Globalization on a very local scale!
BC (203)-
Of course, all these bailouts and handouts are against the law.
There’s always been laws against robbing and desecrating corpses.
Funniest part - neighbours did not know just how many people actually lived in that house - they thought 10 people at most.
Good thing no one can outsource my job, first they would have to figure out what I do then find another person capable of collecting such large amounts of trival useless information in his brain.
Al, you hit the nail on the head the issue isn’t a shortage. It is a shortage at a price they want people who will work for less than 50k per year with an advanced degree and experience. Americans are not willing to do this, 50k a year is considered a low paying job.
Anyone have any experience with delinquent tax foreclosures? My neighbor has been MIA for the last 5 yrs. The county has foreclosed to satisfy back taxes. I have an interest in buying the place as a mother-in-law apt or rental, but I can’t seem to get any good advice on the risks of tax foreclosures (lots of info on bank foreclosures).
“In one case there was 35!!! people living in 4 bedroom/2 bath home.”
Sounds like the summer house we rented in Belmar, back in college days. However, not sure if all of the 35 can actually be described as a human being?
[222] BC
“We are crashing[stabilizing] at 80 miles an hour rahter than 120 miles an hour.”
From my perspective, we were heading toward the wall at 60, the accelerator was pushed to 120, and now it is at 80.
Doesn’t strike me as an improvement.
John (231)-
When you die, donate your brain to science.
They will spend the next 10 years slicing it into prosciutto-thin slivers, trying to figure out where the hell your wires crossed.
BC (234)-
Just like Belmar, it’s all good until somebody pisses in the sink.
[224] gator,
Given the original post and yours, I think we may have a meaning for gator-baiting, and is isn’t the one I intended.
[236] clot
Mmmm. Prosciutto.
#225 grim:Toyota U.S. April sales fall 41.9% to 126,54
And yet these dealers do not want to deal.
I was in the market for a late model Rav 4-. All priced 16k to 20k, many with 60-70k miles, and the dealers knocking maybe $1500 bucks off.
I was also considering a late model Altima, I was in a showroom on a Saturday afternoon, and I was the only person there, (recession, what recession?), the guy tells me I better grab it now or it will be gone.
Again offering cash, and getting the run around.
Now looking at the Sportage and or Sorrento. Lets see how that goes.
Are car dealers like delusional home sellers?
If you want to sell, you have got to be realistic, price your inventory to sell.
John: Most people think of Job security, and they think Outsourcing will take away my jobs or not. IMO, the issue of outsourcing is kind of overblown.
The main challenge we face is fast paced commoditization of once considered premium products or services. Globalization has reduced this even further. One such example is, in past most consulting companies made lot of money creating custom systems for each client. The industry trend changed in 90’s to buying commercial software, and consulting companies made money by implementing systems. Now the trend is to buy systems on ASP model. One can be up and running with most systems such as ERP, CRM etc… within few weeks to months. Once large scale migration from custom systems to such commodity solutions take place, large amount of consulting revenues will start disappearing.
Another example, today if I want to learn anything new, I just go to Youtube first. There probably is already video available free for area I want to learn. Why do I need to go to college or take training lessons.
Clot [237],
The sink? How about the closet. Best one, right on the cop’s foot, on our front porch. Not me.
Hubba wrote “Can you point to the recession in any of these? I cant seem to find it.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/04/april-economic-summary-in-graphs.html”
It’s pretty amazing that in global investment research, the producers of product advertising, aka “analysts” have recently stopped focusing on year over year comparisons. They only now like to talk about month on month comparisons, because these are typically up due to normal seasonality (more economic activity in spring than winter for the last 2000 years). Yoy is still down, but possibly at a slower rate than was the case November through Feb.
This is like saying that because April is warmer than January, this proves global warming is real.
Fresh Flesh Runs Screaming as Zombie Banks Drool
Here they come, with their staring eyes and outstretched arms, moaning incoherently and clutching at the air, teeth gnashing uncontrollably as their insatiable appetite for fresh flesh drives them forward. The zombie banks are demanding to be let back into the financial mall so they can pillage the global markets anew. The notion that any U.S. bank that took financial support from the government should be allowed to discharge part of its obligation to the nation and shake off the few, flimsy shackles accompanying that aid is distasteful at best, outrageous at worst. The financial system is still in intensive care, reliant on transfusions of taxpayer cash to keep its heart beating; the price of that support must be a loss of liberty.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=ao0Hxx8jSCaA
Swaddling was key for our two boys. Once we started swaddling REALLY tight, they slept noticeably longer and better. You’d be amazed how tight you can actually go with it.
From MarketWatch:
GM U.S. April sales down 33.2% to 172,150 units
BMW U.S. April sales decline 38.4%
Honda U.S. April sales down 25.3% to 101,029 units
re: #220 Kettle1 - “Our disposable income/debt ratio is greater than it was during the Great D”
Do you want the actual data or just a chart?
234/Brian-
Just some experience. I bought a piece of land in tax foreclosure in a PA. There was a public announcement in the local paper for all property in tax arrears. Many owners showed up prior/at the auction with the back taxes. I just showed up at the auction with a regular check and had the winning bid (under $1,000). You probably need to find out from someone at the tax office for the town/county/other gov’t office and ask them when the next auction is.
Brian-
Sorry, hit enter before I was finished. You should also have a title search done to see if there are any outstanding liens from any other company/landlord/property owners association, etc. There was one on my property, but it was not a big deal and I paid it off.
238 Nom - we are all just here to defy your expectations.
231 John - I have a friend, fellow gator and lurker on this board who is the true master of useless information. I’d pit his knowledge against yours any day. Don’t stop looking over your shoulder just yet.
Don’t over swaddle your baby. Trust me.
http://tinyurl.com/overswaddled
sean,
i would love to get the data, but am not willing to put out the money for it at this time.
re: the constitutional question. I am by no means an expert on this, but I suppose the issue is whether the executive branch can make so many massive spending decisions when spending is supposed to be the prerogative of congress.
well, you would think that to be the case if you just read the constitution literally (who would be dumb enough to do that), but the smart people decided long ago in the era of FDR that the constitution does not actually mean what it says in this respect.
All of the federal agencies are technically offices of the executive branch, but they direct most spending of the federal government with only the loosest of guidelines from congress.
so the bailout is really not philosophically different from how the federal government has been run since the FDR revolution.
Or even worse…
http://tinyurl.com/even-tighter
I once made the mistake of raising this issue in an administrative law class in law school (how can fed agencies be constitional when congress is supposed to control spending). it seemed an obvious question to me, and I assumed there must be a pretty easy answer that I was just missing, but the professor reacted in a very hostile manner, just saying basically, that is ridiculous, of course this is constitutional. I defer to people who know more about this topic than me, but I have generally concluded since then that a strong constitutional justification just doesn’t really exist. Apparently this is a very sensitive topic for fans of big gov’t
re: #220 Kettle1
St Louis Fed or FRED for free data and charts. Does not go back to 1913 but has lots of data.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
Household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income peaked at 14.3% in 2008.
Also run PCE vs PI, interesting charts.
skeptic,
Most responses that respond to the question of something being unconstitutional usually sound like “Well electricity and cars didn’t exist when the constitution was written”. I’ve heard it at least a dozen time in response to bank bailouts. I’m just waiting one day for someone on CNBC to scream “but banks did exist when they wrote the constitution”.
Sean,
I am very familiar with that data. Thank you though! :)
I found another data source that fairly detailed data for the period of about 1890 - 1940
check this out
El Centro, Calif., continued to claim the highest unemployment rate — 25.1 percent. The jobless rate there is notoriously high because there are so many unemployed seasonal agriculture workers. Following close behind were Merced, Calif., with a jobless rate of 20.4 percent, and Yuba City, Calif., at 19.5 percent
that puts U6 in those locations at 35-45%!!!
I don’t plan on dying, so far so good.
When immigration laws were first created, the fear was that there just wasn’t endless opportunity anymore. There was also a significant amount of disdain for the Southern and Eastern European immigrants that had immigrated between the late 1800’s and early 1900’s. That’s why the quotas were based on the census prior to the great wave.
80 yrs later, the same arguments are being made. Regardless of the outcome, the true beneficiaries of the illegal immigrant problem are businesses that get away with hiring them with minimal repercussions and politicians- on both sides- that can trot out the issue to distract.
My statement regarding the hospital and police mandates are more self preservation than political. If illegal immigrants are afraid of seeking medical attention when sick, or getting their children vaccinated, I have a greater probability of getting sick. If criminals target illegal aliens because they know that they will not report the crime- I am less safe.
Obviously, as a first generation immigrant my views are different. How is my mother to prove she is not an illegal immigrant to maniacs that shield themselves with political propaganda to simply be racist? Will her citizenship papers be requested before her accent is cause enough to be assaulted as has been on the rise? My uncle was recently beaten by two young white men in Haverstraw NY because he was a “spic”. He’s been here for at least 32 yrs.
It’s very easy to say that immigration is at its maximum and immigrants are breaking laws, when laws didn’t exist at the time that immigrants came en masse. 15 plus million immigrants in the early 19th century pales in comparison to the 10 plus million that have arrived in between 1990 to date.
Even now, the percentage of the immigrant population is at around 8-9% and at the turn of the 19th century it was at around 12% of the US Population. They were a strain then as well and the country adapted and grew and was stronger for it.
Off topic, but wondering if someone can answer.
Does anyone know if a company (public, financial services) can change an exisiting employee’s compensation (manager level employee) in a current role from full salary to commission based pay? Can this be done without requiring the employee to have to re-apply for their position, etc.?
Thanks!
Skep,
The interesting legal question to me is “are prohibitions against ’sub rosa’ plans of reorganization dead” in the wake of Lehman and Chrysler?
It’s become commonplace to sell businesses on the first day in bankruptcy, but should this practice be allowed, especially when they dictate the terms of any future plan of reorganization, as Chrysler’s does? A body of case law (related to sub rosa plans), which has largely been ignored, says it shouldn’t.
But we don’t care about that law anymore because it doesn’t suit the preferences of the banks that run our government and Obama & Co. are holding a gun to the bankruptcy judge’s head.
silera,
there is a big difference between 1900 and 2000. in 1900 the US was still expanding within its own border. The US finished its internal expansion 50 years ago.
I am not suggesting either pro or con stances for migration here, but you cannot compare the two periods without considering that with room for internal expansion you will have an increased level on cultural conflict as each group fights for what now amounts to a small slice of the pie. You will also have a increase in resentment as immigrants worker for lower standards and lower pay then americans currently do if for no other reason then the lower standards may still be higher then what they were facing in their native lands.
Silera says:
May 1, 2009 at 9:55 am
The law is in place to make sure that illegal aliens do not fear seeking medical care or police assistance. Regardless of which side of the immigration issue anyone stands on, common decency and common sense dictate that we don’t instill fear in people that need help.
Too often the marginalized members of society are the starting ground for not only illness but violence and crime that gets ignored until it affects someone more mainstream or “worth” protecting.
Their are also other laws, like not asking illegals if they are legal in registering for school. One NJ principal was chastized for doing this. Add up all the anti illegal laws and they render moot the illegal law. That is Dysfunctional.
Other way around - 10 plus million that have arrived in between 1990 to date pales in comparison to the 15 plus million immigrants in the early 19th century.
“Worse news for New York City workers: Mayor will propose 3,750 layoffs”
http://weblogs.amny.com/entertainment/urbanite/blog/2009/04/worse_news_for_new_york_city_w_1.html
re #262 - lena
My understanding is.
no contract = at will employee
Any more advise than that and you will want to ask a real Attorney.
“Sovereign Bank laying off 950 workers”
http://tinyurl.com/cwm5ck
“Bronte Capital with a Major Scoop on Alleged Fraudster”
http://tinyurl.com/dgkhxp
From MarketWatch:
Chrysler April U.S. sales drop 48% to 76,682 units
“Chrysler April U.S. sales drop 48% to 76,682 units”
conspiracy theory. doesn’t exist.
SAS
#271 - Chrysler April U.S. sales drop 48% to 76,682 units
… and scene.
Honestly, does anyone really expect them to make more than a year or two out of BK (if that)?
And wasn’t FIAT in pretty deep trouble in `02/03, to the point that GM almost acquired them just for the small car platforms?
#273 toshiro: I have read the plan,a nd it does nto make sense to me.
At the end of the day, if Daimler could not make a go of Chrysler, I highly doubt Fiat will be able to.
Kettle- In 1920 the arguments used were the same. They grow exponentially, there isn’t enough opportunity, they keep wages down. The immigrant story is always the same though. The first generation works there way up the chain. About 20-30% make their money and leave. The rest reproduce and eventually just blend into the fabric.
The arguments for formulating a realistic immigration policy, one that would monitor migrant workers that account for a great portion of that “illegal” number of immigrants would benefit everyone BUT the businesses that use them.
The true cost of illegal immigrants is almost impossible to measure. For every argument that I read saying their consumption is unmonitored and what they pay in sales tax and generate in income for business, I read another one that says they cost 60 billion a year in schooling and medical costs.
I truly think the problem isn’t with the illegal immigrant, and instead with the businesses that employ them, saving on payroll taxes, and undermining labor laws.
Every successful management policy blames up, and our political discourse always reverts to blaming down.
who cares about Chrysler?
we need Tamiflu. I’m so scared. I’m not going anywhere.
oh my gosh.. I… I …
please govt do something for me.
SAS
3b tosh
its really a simple matter of excess capacity. as BC says, got demand?
who is going to buy all these new cars?
sas, you need Calgon.
#274 - if Daimler could not make a go of Chrysler, I highly doubt Fiat will be able to.
This seems to be the developing consensus. A shame, as I was looking forward to the prospects of a 500 Abarth or an Alfa Brera.
Maybe FIAT will get part of the dealer network…
I always liked FIATs though their reputation was horrible. But man some of their cars were cool. What about Lancia!
As far as ‘making money’…that old antiquated notion…come on. This is the new America. The Tax payer funds everything.
“sas, you need Calgon”
yee.
I’m a fry short of the happy meal.
I freely admit that.
thats what happens when you work 30+ years either in or for the military.
SAS
Silera,
I am not blaming anyone for anything. reread my post, i am simply pointing out normal reactions and not characterizing them.
#280 - Essex - If there was even a chance of me getting my grubby little hands on a Lancia Stratos I would fully support continued Fed funding of the merged companies.
another 15 minutes to go. seems we have another up week (7 in 8)
“another 15 minutes to go. seems we have another up week (7 in 8)”
That’s wonderful. DJIA isn’t even back to where it was on February 9th (8270).
If you ask me. The chart of the indexes is looking absolutely toppy.
284….Yes! The silver lining…Maybe we’ll have less fugly cars on the road….
Stu you look toppy.
Essex,
“Stu you look toppy.”
Is that a come on?
Silera, Excellent points and analysis.
Kettle1: Your point is in 1900 the US was still expanding within its own border. I am not sure about that completely. One of the reason, I hear Euro zone and Japan is not growing is due to its restrictive Immigration policies. The natural birth rate is declining and aging. The advantage US has is due to immigration, US’s birth rate is kept about 2% (required to keep population same), and that is helping economy grow. Without it, US would start looking very similar to Europe or Japan.
New thread, up!
toppy or bottomy stu….?
(McGreevy Humor)
While there may be a net economic benefit for the USA as a whole from large scale illegal immigration due to lower overall cost of goods and services and higher profits for some businesses, there are significant costs to illegal immigration that are disproportionately borne by certain segments of the American citizenry.
If you are a law abiding American citizen who has seen your standard of living greatly eroded due to competition for jobs/resources from illegal immigrants, it is small comfort to say that, well, it has always been like this and you just have to deal with it.
Our government owes a duty to its own citizens first and foremost and there is nothing racist in saying so.
I know Kettle. I didn’t mean to come across like I did. The reasoning just gets so circular.
Anyone already here that is not successful is lazy and not seizing the endless opportunity available or we can’t take any more immigrants because we’ve hit the wall. GM is crushed by labor cost but we can’t get immigrants to do the work for less.
The laws in place to ensure that illegals get health care, police protection and education I personally think are necessary. The cost of preventive measures outweigh the reactive ones. We can either spend the money up front or we can do damage control with emergency hospital care, and an out of control prison population.
As far as emergency care goes- here’s a doozy:
9 patients made nearly 2,700 ER visits in Texas
Hospital trips of 5 women, 4 men over 6 years cost taxpayers $3 million
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29998460/
[250] gator
?
[251] stu
Had me going for a second. The littlest Deplume is much cuter.
[295] silera,
It always amazed me that this issue is defined as dem v. repub, lib v con. In truth, it is an econ. strata issue—the lower strata should be for controlling illegal immigration for obvious reasons, and the upper income strata (presumed to have control over means of production) should be against it for the same reasons.
Thus, the economic reasons hold no sway with the elected Worthies, who instead fight over a future pool of . . . .voters?
Yes, voters. Just as in the days of Tammany Hall, the dems want to allow more immigrants with the expectation that, as poor, multihued immigrants they will vote democratic, while the GOP opposes unrestricted immigration for the same reason.
Same thing with unions. One would think that they would be against immigration, but instead they view immigrants as a new source of membership.
Thus, the average blue collar worker is being sold out by the democrats and unions. It is in their interest to keep immigration controlled, but the two institutions in which they place their faith for more and better paying jobs also wants to cultivate their competitors.
shoot them all and let God sort them out.