Overbuilding senior communities

I don’t care if you have plans, cancel them.

What: GTG/Meet-up/Whatever
When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish (Tonight!)
Where: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link

For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.

—————————-

From the Press of Atlantic City:

Age-restricted communities popular, but still a bust in N.J.

Linda Telli needed some convincing when her husband, Ron, first suggested uprooting their lives in Bergen County to retire at the Four Seasons at Historic Smithville, an age-restricted community in Galloway Township.

While Ron liked the idea of being around people their age, Linda preferred being closer to New York City and their family. A lower cost of living in Atlantic County, however, became a major selling point. The couple bought property at the Four Seasons nearly four years ago.

“Our taxes are down about $1,500 to $2,000,” said Ron, 67.

As for Linda, “Living here is like camp for adults,” said the 60-year-old.

The popularity of adult retirement communities with the baby boomer set has grown through much of the decade, although modestly.

But housing market expert Jeffrey Otteau says boomers may not be so quick to flood those communities now – at least not in New Jersey.

For one, retirees here are choosing to move to lower-cost states, leaving a glut of age-restricted housing in the Garden State equivalent to a 16-year supply, said Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, a real estate research and appraisal firm in East Brunswick.

Legislation now is moving through Trenton that would allow developers to petition municipalities to remove age restrictions on already approved projects, instead favoring more affordable housing.

Otteau added that because of the economic meltdown, seniors may decide to save money by simply “aging in place.” So instead of retiring to an age-restricted community, they’ll retire in their current home.

The building of age-restricted housing, however, still is appealing to many towns: Seniors contribute to the local tax base without increasing school enrollment.

This entry was posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

557 Responses to Overbuilding senior communities

  1. grim says:

    Ok, so we’ve got a 16 year supply of age restricted housing. We’ve got legislation to allow developers to remove age restrictions.

    Is this even more shadow inventory?

  2. grim says:

    (Did you ever think you would see NYC real estate categorized right next to … Detroit?)

    From Smart Money:

    5 Housing Markets That Have Further to Fall

    Home buyers looking for a bottom in the real estate market may have been encouraged by housing data released earlier this week. Sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors. The increase was a little less than most analysts had expected, but it represented the second straight month of improvement. Meanwhile, sales of new homes dipped 0.6% in May, continuing a trend of fairly flat months so far this year, according to data released by the Commerce Department.

    Don’t get too excited – it’s still too early to say the housing market bottomed out, analysts and economists say. Distressed properties still account for about a third of all sales, and 29% of sales were to first-time home buyers, who are currently benefiting from an $8,000 tax credit.

    “There will be regional differences in the turnaround,” says Maureen Maitland, vice president of index services at Standard & Poor’s. “Most economists I talk to are expecting the beginning of the turnaround to be sometime next year,” she says. However, she added, “the last market may not turn around for two or three years.”

    1) Detroit

    2) New York City

    Anyone who was hoping to see Wall Street suffer from the financial crisis can relax. New York may have avoided the nationwide implosion in home prices early on, but the city saw its largest-ever monthly decline in March, at 2.5%.

    “New York may not be out of the woods,” Maitland says. “Because of what’s going on with the financial markets and the layoffs on Wall Street, New York may be one of the last places to turn around.”

    3) Phoenix

    4) Portland, Ore.

    5) Minneapolis

  3. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Unemployment Vexes Foreclosure Plan

    Rising unemployment is complicating the Obama administration’s effort to reduce foreclosures and stabilize the housing market.

    The first wave of mortgage delinquencies was sparked by borrowers who took out subprime mortgages and other risky loans that became unaffordable, causing them to fall behind on their monthly payments. But the current wave is increasingly driven by unemployment or underemployment, economists and housing counselors say.

    The Obama foreclosure-prevention plan was “built around the subprime crisis model, not the unemployment crisis model,” said Michael van Zalingen, director of homeownership services for the nonprofit Neighborhood Housing Services of Chicago.

    The Obama program provides financial incentives to mortgage-servicing companies and investors to reduce mortgage-related payments to 31% of monthly income.

    But many borrowers don’t have sufficient income to qualify for a loan modification under the plan. Mr. van Zalingen said roughly 45% of the more than 900 borrowers who sought help at two recent counseling events would fall into that category even if their interest rate were dropped to 2% and their loan term were extended to 40 years.

    Many of those unqualified borrowers suffered job losses or a reduction in income, Mr. van Zalingen said. Roughly 27% of borrowers who called the mortgage industry’s national “Hope Hotline” in the second quarter of 2009 cited unemployment as the primary or secondary reason for their mortgage problems, up from 9.7% in the second quarter of 2008.

  4. grim says:

    From the Daily Record:

    $1.2B tax hikes get OK

    State lawmakers, divided along partisan lines, approved a $29 billion state budget Thursday that relies on $1.2 billion in tax increases and $2.2 billion in federal stimulus aid as it scales back grants, programs and property tax rebates.

    The Assembly passed the budget 45-34, with all Democrats present except two in favor and every Republican against it. The tax increases passed by similar margins. The Senate passed the budget 22-17, then approved the tax increases — all but one with the minimum 21 votes needed for passage.

    Democrats said the budget cuts spending to deal with the impact of the recession but hailed it for keeping property tax rebates for all seniors and any household with income of $75,000 or less, capping tuition hikes at state colleges and universities at 3 percent and avoiding cuts other states are making to core programs.

    “This budget is a Band-Aid. It is a Band-Aid leading down a road to a disaster,” said Sen. Kevin O’Toole, R-Essex.

    “Our state is on the verge of financial collapse, not just because this year or even last year’s budget, but rather the totality of taxing, spending, borrowing that has a stranglehold not only on their wallets, but on the spirits of the people who live in this state,” said Assemblyman Joseph Malone III, R-Burlington.

  5. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    U.S. housing misery poised to enter new phase

    Signs that home prices may have bottomed have stirred hope on Wall Street that the economy is on the mend, yet tight credit and a new foreclosure wave cast doubt on any looming housing revival.

    Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose for a second straight month in May, realty data on Tuesday showed, while the U.S. government and Federal Reserve have designed a number of programs to alleviate a battered housing market.

    However, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors warned of the danger of a “delayed” recovery in housing, with prices down 32 percent nationwide from their peak three years ago.

    Big risk factors that could spur more foreclosures include expectations of rising unemployment and the forecast resetting of interest rates on 2.8 million subprime and Alt-A mortgages in the next two years.

    Delinquency rates on mortgage payments typically rise in tandem with unemployment, which is expected to top 10 percent after hitting a 25-year high of 9.4 percent in May. And when mortgages interest rates reset, they are typically at higher rates that can cause monthly payments to balloon.

    “I’m worried that the investment community is a little too sanguine about how much of the housing pain is behind us and that we might be in the all-clear,” said Ronald Temple, co-director of research at Lazard Asset Management in New York.

    Against this backdrop comes continuing tightness in housing credit. According to Amherst Securities Group LP, a severe lack of credit outside of government-sponsored mortgages has reduced loans, especially for the purchase of new homes, and is putting further downward pressure on prices.

  6. grim says:

    Ok, here is the op-ed piece that made me fall off my chair this morning:

    Open space, empty wallets
    Friday, June 26, 2009
    BY JEFF TITTEL

    Since 1892, the Sierra Club has fought for the preservation of open space. We believe that it is vital to protect the environment and provide recreational and economic opportunities. However, because of the economic crisis, we don’t believe we should be borrowing against our future to pay for open space.

    At a time when state workers may be furloughed or laid off, schools for the handicapped closed, after-school programs eliminated and Medicaid and social programs cut severely, we believe that unrestricted borrowing of such magnitude for open space is irresponsible.

  7. grim says:

    Green shoots?

    From HousingWire:

    May Delinquency Rate up 50% from 2008

    Total mortgage delinquencies are up 50% from the year-ago level and up 5% from the previous month, reaching an 8.49% rate in May, according to a monthly report released by Lender Processing Services.

    Foreclosure inventories climbed as May saw a 2.79% increase in the foreclosure rate from April. The foreclosure rate sits 88.3% above the year-ago level.

    The roll rate of loans moving from current status into delinquency rose again in the month to 637,822 newly delinquent loans, the fourth highest number on record. Ninety-day delinquencies rolling into foreclosure status edged up again after falling in April on the heels of an influx in foreclosure starts that followed the expiration of the moratorium in place at the agencies.

    New delinquencies increased across all product types, spiking among government-insured mortgages — including those insured by the Federal Housing Administration — which now sits at a level even with option adjustable-rate mortgages and just below Alt-A mortgages.

    The percentage of mortgages becoming 30 days delinquent each month this year sat above the corresponding monthly rate in the four preceding years, indicating a greater percentage of borrowers missing payments as the current economic contraction continues to unwind and joblessness increases, slashing income and making monthly payments more challenging to keep up with.

  8. DL says:

    The problem hasn’t been invented that you can’t legislate your way out of.

    “TRENTON — The Assembly on Thursday approved a bill, backed by a South Jersey legislator, that would let developers eliminate the age limit for new-home construction currently restricted to those 55 or older.”

    http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090626/NEWS01/906260335/0/newsfront2/Bill-targets-glut-of-55+-housing

  9. grim says:

    #8 – Bring it on, more inventory, lower prices.

    Lower home prices would be good for the NJ economy.

  10. grim says:

    From FirstAmerican CoreLogic LoanPerformance (they appear to enjoy concatenation):

    National HPI for April – Home Prices Down 10.2% vs 2008

    New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ
    -10.35%

    Wow! NY Metro Area falling faster than the national average. This is something many here posited would *never* occur.

  11. traveljerk123 says:

    from the BBC

    Conspiracy surrounds $134bn ‘bond’ find

    What do you get when you mix two Japanese nationals with some fake US government bonds, a slow train to Switzerland and members of the Italian financial guard?

    The answer is a $134bn (£82bn; 97bn euros) conspiracy theory which has fired up a whole realm of financial bloggers on the internet.

    But then this is a story which does have the ring of a John Le Carre novel.

    It begins with two 50-year-old Japanese men being stopped by Italy’s Guardia di Finanza – the country’s financial guard – on a train passing through Chiasso, a small border town between Italy and Switzerland.

    The Italian finance guards ask the pair if they have anything to declare on their way into Switzerland. Both insist they haven’t.

    But on a hunch, the guards decide to search their suitcase anyway.

    In it, under items of personal clothing, they find a concealed area stuffed with documents that look like dollar-denominated US government bonds apparently worth a jaw-dropping $134bn.

    That is enough to fund three Beijing Olympics, with some change leftover to boot.

    Secret mission?

    It clearly is a remarkable tale, but after the “bonds” were seized by the Italian finance police, the men, after some questioning, were let go, sparking a frenzy of conspiracy theories on the internet.

    Now questions abound: are the bonds real or counterfeit? And why were the Japanese men not arrested?

    Were they, perhaps, actually Japanese government officials on a secret mission to dump US dollar-denominated assets?

    And if so, is that just more evidence that a growing number of investors are losing faith in the US economy and the US government’s ability to repay is ballooning debt?

    Who else is involved, ask the bloggers. Is this the work of the Italian mafia? Take a trip round the web, and there is no shortage of explanations.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8113642.stm

  12. Joey says:

    Dilbert’s a good one today

  13. DL says:

    Chiasso. Passed through there on the way to Villa D’este, a great hotel on the shore of Lake Como. If they wanted to dump the bonds they should have just dumped them in the lake. That way the only charge would have been pollution.

  14. Shore Guy says:

    Live from Japan……..its…..1933:

    Record fall in Japan prices fuel deflation fears
    By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA – 59 minutes ago

    TOKYO (AP) — Deflation is clawing its way back in Japan, and that’s not good news for an economy trying to recover from its worst recession since World War II.

    Japan’s key consumer price index tumbled at a record pace in May, the government said Friday. The core nationwide CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, fell 1.1 percent from the previous year in the third straight month of decline.

    The result marked the biggest fall since the government began releasing comparable data in 1971.

    Japan appears to be “heading for another lengthy period of deflation,” said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo.

    Lower prices may seem like a good thing, but deflation can hamper growth by depressing company profits and causing consumers to postpone purchases, leading to production and wage cuts. It can also increase debt burdens.

    The drop in underlying prices is “set to be persistent” and can lead to various problems for companies and individuals because interest rates will “be too high for prevailing economic conditions,” Jerram said in a note to clients.

    snip

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jmfkCQFvxtt6IXRmfAjmFGTya2yAD992A9N00

  15. Shore Guy says:

    “concatenation”

    Isn’t that still illegal in most southern states?

  16. traveljerk123 says:

    RIP MJ

  17. Shore Guy says:

    “The roll rate of loans moving from current status into delinquency rose again in the month to 637,822 newly delinquent loans, the fourth highest number on record. Ninety-day delinquencies rolling into foreclosure status edged up again”

    Grim,

    Didn’t you recently post something about 1) the number of already foreclosed homes that banks have not yet released to the market and 2) the number of homes where people have stopped paying the mortgage but the banks have, in essence, refused to foreclose?

    If one adds these new delinquencies, it would seem that there is a huge shadow inventory out there. The USG is bailing with a teacup and cannot keep ahead of the market forces, so it would seem.

  18. Shore Guy says:

    ““TRENTON — The Assembly on Thursday approved a bill, backed by a South Jersey legislator, that would let developers eliminate the age limit for new-home construction currently restricted to those 55 or older.”

    As one who has lived in close proximity to such places, it strikes me that many of the people who have retreated from the world into these enclaves have done so to get away from younger people, especially children. If this goes through, do not be surprised if many of the people who are in these places decide to bug-out for florida.

    As 55 and older places, they may be tolerable, as all-age developments, those places would be dreadful.

  19. DL says:

    The Albany-Trenton-Sacramento Disease

    Workers in these paradises are indeed uniting — by leaving. New York ranks first, California second and New Jersey third in moving vans leaving the state.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124597150183556945.html

  20. grim says:

    As 55 and older places, they may be tolerable, as all-age developments, those places would be dreadful.

    Am I alone in feeling that age-restricted (maybe segregated is a better description) developments are discriminatory?

  21. safeashouses says:

    I got a tax refund of $16.96.

    Green Shoots!

  22. Kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    the number of homes where people have stopped paying the mortgage but the banks have, in essence, refused to foreclose?

    sounds like a fun game of chicken. stop paying the mortgage for a year demand a reduction, then start paying again?

  23. Shore Guy says:

    DL,

    When you return from Deutschland, are you going to try for a home in NJ or just skip a step and go someplace else?

  24. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I’ll not be attending the GTG, but in honor of the Gloved One I ask you to raise a glass of Jesus Juice in honor of his legacy.

  25. frank says:

    Buy a home now before price go up like in CA.

    Home Prices Rise in California Again

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124597490775357441.html

  26. relo says:

    Shadow inventory. My (much) better half was speaking to to someone in FL yesterday. They had accumulated 29 rental properties over the years and have been hangining on (the carnage started much earlier there, remember). Rents and occupancy have fallen by such a degree that they are now letting some go.

  27. frank says:

    Trade of the day, sell SRS, buy URE.

  28. Shore Guy says:

    “Am I alone in feeling that age-restricted (maybe segregated is a better description) developments are discriminatory?”

    No, I don’t think you are; however, I belive they are allowed by federal law and given an exemption from the federal age discrimination laws and thus, by definition, are not discriminatory.

  29. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    From Mish,

    “Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss; Paulson Calls Bank of America “Turd in the Punchbowl”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/bernanke-suffers-from-selective-memory.html

    Nothing to see here, green shoots!

  30. Shore Guy says:

    Stu/Gator,

    In talking about property taxes with some other parents at Little Shore’s practice yesterday it struck me that you two could make a few bucks running property tax appeal seminars.

  31. Shore Guy says:

    “Nothing to see here, green shoots!”

    Green shoots or mold? From a distance, it can be hard to tell the difference.

  32. confused in NJ says:

    Otteau added that because of the economic meltdown, seniors may decide to save money by simply “aging in place.” So instead of retiring to an age-restricted community, they’ll retire in their current home.

    Aging in place, with NJ Property Taxes. Lot’s of Luck with that one! Maybe if they eliminated School Taxes for Seniors.

  33. Shore Guy says:

    I just found out I will be tied up tonight and can’t make the GTG. Enjoy.

  34. cooper says:

    is this more NAR smoke screen to shadow the shadow inventory?

    “In addition to dubious assertions the other day about property assessors coming in too low with their valuations, thus thwarting a rebound in home prices, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) also reported a stunning decline in the percentage of distressed sales, a development that prompts the update of the chart below, first presented back in February.”

    http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/06/more-reasons-to-disbelieve-nar.html

  35. Herring123 says:

    Grim – they are discriminatory, 100 percent, but the supreme court decided that discrimination based on age (rather than race or sex) is subject to lax review, ie is permissible.

  36. Silera says:

    As mother of young kids, I would hate to live in previously age restricted housing. In addition to the stress of kids and tantrums and teenagers and tantrums, an old fogey neighbor that expects you to be asleep by 7pm and complains every time the kids laugh or play outside is miserable.

    Our next door neighbors are lovely. They have to be in their 70’s/80’s and whenever we’re outside the wife always makes sure to wave and is really sweet to the baby to the point that he calls her “other great grandma”. A few weekends ago, I made sure to apologize for a BBQ that went a little late. She said, “Oh, you guys are allowed to have fun. We were all young once.”

    Neighbor next to her is the complete opposite. He actually came over to complain at 4 pm to us that our teens were in the backyard playing hoops. Exact words “They should go to the park or play in the street. That’s why I pay taxes.”

  37. 3b says:

    #26 frank:Home Prices Rise in California Again

    Not surprising frank, considering prices in many aprt of Cal have fallen 40 and 50%.

    Must you always be so dense?

  38. Silera says:

    Can’t you get a fine or sanction for age discrimination in employment?

  39. Shore Guy says:

    Confused,

    The senior ghettos amongst the pines seem to have served as a middle ground — allowing folks to flee the higher taxes of their pre-downsizing homes, getting away from the noisy whippersnappers, and not having to completely flee familiar environs. Once one opens up those places to just anyone, it is Fort Myers Ho for a lot of the people who would otherwise consider the places.

    I bet Brick, Toms River, and Lakewood are just thrilled about the potential of thousands of housing units with children. It is like multiple Levittowns/Strathmores popping up overnight.

  40. Against The Grain says:

    Re#9

    “Lower home prices would be good for the NJ economy.’

    Agreed.

    No link, but the WSJ Economics Editor is on NPR this morning saying the the economy can’t recover until home prices rise.

    Moron.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    “WSJ Economics Editor is on NPR this morning saying the the economy can’t recover until home prices rise”

    Actually, I think he is correct; however, they cannot begin to rise until they are allowed to find bottom. Let the market work folks, and stop trying to keep the ball at its apogee.

  42. Cindy says:

    http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/mlb/photos?gameId=290621112

    Father’s Day Game -Mariners 3 Diamondbacks 2 – Safeco Field -Seattle – Alex Rodriguez pitching – Ichiro IS really fast. Ken Griffey JR was in as a PH for an inning. We won on a error overthrow to first in the bottom of the ninth. Everyone yells “I-CHI-RO.” But my son in law says it’s a whisper compared to the noise of Quest Field next door for the Seahawks games.

    Olympia Farmer’s Market yesterday – great crab cakes Benedict. We bought blueberry bushes so we have planting/gardening planned for today. Painter to finish trim this week. (Nesting instinct big time. – must have this completed.) Many trips to Ikea – A bit of reorganizing – I think we are set.

    Went to a coffee tasting room yesterday – Three Dancing Goats -Batdorf & Bronson. So beer pubs in Portland and coffee tasting here in Wash. Urraco coffee as well. Decaf with the preganat daughter – brew pubs with my youngest.

    We will all be together this weekend for a big baby shower. I’ll be able to see many old friends from OR. We are taking over a coffee /gardening/gift shop here in town for a tea party/shower.

    Grandkids – 2 1/2 and 4 keeping me very busy – fun, fun, fun. Ah – vacations!

    Enjoy!
    Talk soon…

  43. Shore Guy says:

    Grim/Clot,

    Does anyone have data on the number of agr-restricted homes in each municipality? Also, if the places get opened up to “everyone,” would that not cause the prices to rise, thus reducing one of the purported benefits of the gray ghettos?

  44. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (41)-

    Talk about unintended consequences.

    All these 55+ communities will turn into self-contained ghettoes.

  45. hughesrep says:

    Just accepted an offer on our townhouse. 10K over my wife’s 2004 purchase price. After probably 30K worth of improvements, plus all the other crap.

    Green shoots?

  46. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (45)-

    If they’re opened up, prices will plummet. Just more inventory into an already-glutted market.

    Also, many of these homes feature floorplans and amenities that are not family-friendly.

    Finally, a lot of these communities are way undercapitalized. Anyone buying in is advised to complete some heavy-duty due diligence.

  47. Clotpoll says:

    rep (47)-

    You have a contract. I’d say that makes you the luckiest guy in NJ, regardless of price.

  48. PGC says:

    “All these 55+ communities will turn into self-contained ghettoes.”

    Lets see the families with RugRats get the HOA to splash the cash on a swingset or games for the community room.

  49. hughesrep says:

    48

    It would also kill the townhome / condo market in anything nearby.

  50. Shore Guy says:

    Clot,

    I can just see families at the lowest rung of the economic scale flocking to these places, turning them into the northern equivalant of trailer parks down south. The initial influx then causing flight to 55+ places in the south, causing more inventory to come online thus causing a vicious circle.

    Am I off the wall with this thinking?

  51. Shore Guy says:

    cycle too

  52. Alap says:

    Shore Guy:

    Doesn’t the legislation apply only to communities where a house has not been sold yet? I don’t think a development where people have already started closing and moving in can be changed to all ages now. Those people would definitely have some type of legal recourse.

  53. DL says:

    Shore: Initially the plan was NJ but after being educated by this site, we’re going to do some house hunting in Oct thie year in Montgomery Co, PA. Car insurance, state and local tax savings will put at least $8k a year into our pocket. Couldn’t see why I should by the State of NJ a new BMW every five years.

  54. Kettle1 says:

    Shore 19,

    do not be surprised if many of the people who are in these places decide to bug-out for florida.

    Do they have the cash available to do so? They arent going to be able to sell without taking a potentially substantial loss. I think a fair number of the seniors could be stuck.

  55. DL says:

    BTW, I believe the proposed legislation on +55 is that it only appleis to new projects. Existing ones are grandfathered.

  56. Against The Grain says:

    Re #42

    “Actually, I think he is correct; however, they cannot begin to rise until they are allowed to find bottom. Let the market work folks, and stop trying to keep the ball at its apogee”

    His point was more that prices have fallen enough already and that low prices are the main thing that will prevent a recovery.

  57. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of images from one’s youth:

    http://popwatch.ew.com/.a/6a00d8341bf6c153ef0115715a7190970b-800wi

    A nice counterpoint to the freakish photos of the other figure who died yesterday.

  58. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (52)-

    Not at all. I think the best way to think through anything housing-related in the US is to use the negative feedback loop model.

  59. Shore Guy says:

    “His point was more that prices have fallen enough already and that low prices are the main thing that will prevent a recovery.”

    Well, then he is a putz.

  60. John says:

    I need to pull an RE 101 and defend myself. I have never every made up a single story. In fact when I was single and around 29 a guy I worked with who was also single and 29 called me out on my stories, he said none of this ever happens when he goes out. I then said well how often do you go out, he said I go with me girlfriend ever week and meet up with my friends at least once a month. So then I say well lets discount the GF so that only gives you 12 chance a year to see some crazy stuff. I then explained what I did the prior week. I went out every night except Monday, even went out at lunch. On the weekend alone I did a friday night happy hour in the city, drove to Hamptons same night hit a few bars and clubs, went to several house parties and beach clubs on Saturday and Sunday and stopped at a bar sunday night back in city to show off tan. Anyhow if you add it up I went out around 12 times that week. What he does in a a year. So I have 52 times the chances to have stories and even then I only got a good once once a month. Kinda like bartenders have great stories, you spend 40 hours a week in a bar and then go to bars and clubs on your day off you get a lot of stories, also I used to go to afterhours clubs and those you nearly always have a story. Funny part was I used to have a bs job when I was 29 working around 35 hours a week. In the summer I used to be in bars,clubs, parties etc. around 35 hours a week. I kinda did that 50/50 split for around 8 years. Funny part is my gfs used to think that was a little strange. Speaking of GFs my buddies and I had a rule wrap up saturday night by 2am and pre-cell phone we used to use my friends outgoing message on his work answering to give the meet up spot. We then would all meet at a club around 3am, best time to go, most clubs stop the cover around 3am and that is when the club is usually jumping and you don’t have to buy girls drinks as they are toasted and easy pickings.

  61. Clotpoll says:

    DL (55)-

    Yeah, but if you live in Montco, you’ll be in the same place as the uber-white trash Jon & Kate.

    John + Kate + 8 = hate

  62. 3b says:

    #58 Against:His point was more that prices have fallen enough already and that low prices are the main thing that will prevent a recovery.

    They have not fallen enough here.

  63. yome says:

    #26 Is it all psychological? Make it look like it hit bottom and everybody starts buying.What is the unempoloyment rate in Cali?Where is the mortgage approval coming from?If there is alot of cash in Cali I would think the same in NJ NY area.

  64. Shore Guy says:

    “Do they have the cash available to do so? ”

    The people who are in the process of downsizing would, and they would just bypass the Leisure Villages of NJ. The people who are already there, as the neighborhood changed, some of them would have the cash, leftover from downsizing to bug-out. Others would just live in misery, die, and then other downsizing seniors would opt to go someplace else.

    From gray ghetto to trailer park in one easy step. Leave it to the legislature.

  65. Clotpoll says:

    John, the swingin’ accountant.

    Sizes up the chances of getting lucky in an after-hours joint like Buffett’s chief actuary.

  66. x-underwriter says:

    Grim,
    You have the ability to see what the IP addresses are of each poster and what company they are registered to.
    What IP address is post #62 registered to? The O.T.B. in Flushing? The Bada Bing?

  67. DL says:

    Clot: Ouch. All I really wanted was the R5 and a little less atitude than in Bucks. (Apologies to Bucks readers.)

  68. Clotpoll says:

    x (68)-

    My guess would be a public library, but I don’t think they open this early.

  69. John says:

    Actualy was in Sec Lending back then. Now that was a slippery business, doing business with people with multiple pinky rings is a little scary.

  70. frank says:

    Where’s the recession??? Where’s the gloom and doom??

    U.S. Consumer Spending Rose, Incomes Gained in May

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6xBheN2SW.o

  71. Stu says:

    Shoreguy (31): “property tax appeal seminars.”

    I have floated that idea numerous times. We will probably gear up for it for next year. As John pointed out, we will avoid doing it in Montclair as it will hurt our own property taxes and I doubt we will ever get a fair decision from our town’s tax lawyer ever again.

    I’m figuring we could do a single night class at various town’s adult schools and then back it up with a pay to enter website. We’re not looking to create the next Google/Yahoo. We just want to make it worth our time.

    Seriously. $30 to save you an easy $1000 seems like a good enough deal to me. Especially in the light of how poorly 95% of the appealers appeared in the county court this past Monday. I’m hoping we get a huge tax cut and then we can use our personal appeal results as an example for others who might be interested in signing up for the seminar.

  72. Shore Guy says:

    “people with multiple pinky rings ”

    In my family, that was par for the course.

  73. Stu says:

    John = Wedding crasher.

  74. relo says:

    56: Loss is more palatable if moving to Ft. Myers where you can get a house for nickel.

  75. Shore Guy says:

    Not quite EFCA but an incentive to organize:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aDvu77pZr7k4

  76. DL says:

    “KB Home Loss Narrows, New Orders Increase From 1st Quarter”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124601814615460253.html

  77. Shore Guy says:

    I recall that there are some serious bike riders here. I am looking to purchase a new bike. I am not looking for gold-plated, just something that will allow a geezer like me to do road rides with Little Shore, including up and down large hills. What should I look for and what should I avoid. I prefer to spend less than $1,000.

  78. Kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    The whole over 55 community debacle sounds like a good way to accelerate the decay of the suburbs and the and the rise of re-urbanization.

    Do we head towards a more european “village” type model or stick with the north american megalopolis model with a decreasing standard of living the further from the center you go?

  79. nj escapee says:

    Shore,

    Bikes direct is a good source. Have been pretty happy with my purchase. Seem to have superior parts. Bikes are delivered pre-assembled less pedals and handlebars.

    http://www.bikesdirect.com

  80. Kettle1 says:

    Can anyone recommend a good B&B in new Hope / Lambertville?

  81. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (80)-

    I vote for the exurban slum model.

  82. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (82)-

    Go for the gusto & hit the Lambertville House.

  83. Kettle1 says:

    Clot,

    I tend to agree, It will probably be a mixed picture though. Some truly rural housing, some rural “villages” and then your exurban slums.

    Ask Mikeinwiaintg about a few of the MASSIVE condo developments in the middle of nowhere up in sussex!

  84. Kettle1 says:

    clot 84,

    worth it?

  85. Shore Guy says:

    Ket,

    If our cities were like European cities, I would love to live in one and keep a country place. It beats fighting one’s way on Rt 35, Rt 9, 287, etc., each day just to accomplish the simplest tasks.

    I had to go from Avon to Toms River one Friday, the Parkway was bumper to bumper as was 34, so I doubled back ahd headed over to 35, what to you know, bumper to bumper. So, 18th Ave to Ocean Avenue and over to Manasquan, allowing me to avoid much of the mess, then ovee to Brielle, yadda, yadda, what a friggen waste of time.

    I can see a day whren the burbs are like many in France, where the less advantaged accumulate.

  86. John says:

    commuting is much easier in France as half the country is unemployed.

  87. Kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    The american development came about in the early 1900’s when energy was so cheap and easy (not a john story) that they were trying to find was to increase oil consumption. High energy consumption levels were a good thing. now e are stuck with that legacy in a world of increasingly constrained energy resources. It wont be easy to change an infrastructure thats been 80 years in the making

  88. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (86)-

    Yes. Also, many of the B&Bs in Bucks are overpriced fleabags.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    Did anyone hear that B.O. is looking towards amnesty for illegals? Perhaps that is part of his housing-recovery plan.

  90. nj escapee says:

    Shore, looks nice. I have one of the comfort bikes. it’s been great for cruising around the lower Keys.

  91. x-underwriter says:

    Shore Guy says:
    What should I look for and what should I avoid.

    This is what I figured out when I bought a new road bike this spring.
    When you get a road bike, you’re not really getting a specific bike but a frame and a level of the components.
    Each model often a number corresponding with the quality level of components where the lower number, the better the components and higher the price.
    I bought a leftover Cannondale Six 13 – 5. The 5 means the components were middle of the road but still good. There’s also a 1, 3, and 6.

    For that price range, you’ll most likely get an aluminum frame. The disadvantage of aluminun vs. carbon fiber is that it’s stiff and you feel the bumps more. It’s also 1/2 the price.

    As usual, you don’t want the absolute cheapest one, but don’t need anything over the 1/2 way point either.

    My advice would be to try a bunch of bikes out at the bike stores and see which one you like best, figure out what frame size you need, and see if you can get one on ebay. There’s not a whole lot of negotiation pricewise in the stores.
    Here’s the best online resource for info
    http://www.bicycling.com/

  92. Painhrtz says:

    Shore not that I would recommend this as I have friends who work in bike shops and I ride a MTB. Can’t stand spandex wearing roadies either, sorry Grim. They would kill me if I let the secret out. Find a bike you like online, find it at a local bike shop, get sized, ride it see if you like. If so offer internet price minus 7 percent to account for taxes. 9 times out of 10 they will take it, if they don’t well they just did all the sizing work for you, click and save on the internet.

  93. Painhrtz says:

    X-underwriter looks like we just gave shore the same advice

  94. Kettle1 says:

    Shore 92,

    Its an attempt to increase tax revenue as well as increase the amount of cheap labor available in the US.

    Didnt they say that this wouldnt happen again and that they would enforce the immigration laws, last time the handed out amnesty????

  95. Silera says:

    Chi-Fi had posted an excerpt from Alyssa Katz new book “Our Lot: How Real Estate Came to Own Us” a few weeks ago. The following is an article from this week for Big Money. Really digestable information.

    The Dubious Birth of Mortgage-Backed Securities- How Wall Street, Ronald Reagan, and Congress created a financial time bomb.
    By Alyssa Katz

    http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/history-lesson/2009/06/25/dubious-birth-mortgage-backed-securities

  96. zieba says:

    Income Tax revenue is taking a drop commensurate with the kind of slump which we are experiencing in domestic GDP.

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/06/tax-revenues-slump-as-us-budget-deficit.html

    http://www.escapefromamerica.com/2009/06/tax-revenues-tanking/

  97. ricky_nu says:

    EPA contemplating a “gas guzzler tax” on larger homes, that won’t be a positive for prices…..

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124596554638256383.html

  98. safeashouses says:

    #87 Shore Guy,

    I would love to live in a city again. Right now it seems to me that to live in a US city with a family you need to be rich or poor.

    If we stay in NJ we are going to move to a town with a train line/or commuter bus within 45 minutes of NYC. The town also has to have a downtown.

    Having to drive 5 minutes to pick up a carton of milk is ridiculous.

  99. syncmaster says:

    safeashouses #101,

    Having to drive 5 minutes to pick up a carton of milk is ridiculous.

    You get used to it :-)

  100. Shore Guy says:

    safe,

    Having the ability to walk to get milk, walk to the library, etc., hech, just walking about and seeing and talking with people, rather than sitting in traffic cursing them, is very appealing. That said, until schools improve or the economics change, I don’t see myself doing it anytime in the forseeable future.

  101. Nicholas says:

    Talking about middle and upper class having to make tough choices?

    http://annapolis.craigslist.org/mcy/1238635471.html

    Apparently this guy has to sell his brand new Yamaha V-Max just months after he took delivery. Several thousand miles on the bike and you have to sell it? I wonder why your selling your bike?

  102. syncmaster says:

    Shore Guy #87,

    It beats fighting one’s way on Rt 35, Rt 9, 287, etc., each day just to accomplish the simplest tasks.

    You know, you don’t have to live in the City to avoid that. I live in suburbia and don’t have to get on a highway to go grocery shopping, to get a haircut, the pharmacy, Target, Home Depot or even to go to work. The only time I actually get on the highway (and I live 1 mile away from Rt 287) is when I have to go a bit far, say once a month. Rest of the time, it’s local backroads everywhere.

  103. Kettle1 says:

    nick,

    that bike is hideous. Did some take our madmax quips too seriously?

  104. hoodafa says:

    Anyone headed to the GTG from the Weehawken area and interested in car-pooling this evening?

  105. Shore Guy says:

    syncmaster,

    Come to Monmouth and Ocean Counties.

  106. Shore Guy says:

    Well, it is time to generate some revenue for B.O. to redistribute to those more deserving of the money than I. After all, it is only fair.

  107. GerryAdams says:

    Senior Housing in the state –

    The lack of information about this bill in the NJ media is infuriating. From what I have read the following rules apply:
    1. only applies if no units have been sold – i.e. the geezers wont be forced to live with youngins
    2. a developer must apply to the municipality to change from senior to other housing.
    3. the units must include affordable units. (Not so sure about this one)

    It does not sound like the developers are guaranteed a change in status and if a town fights them, it may take them years to get the change. Last nail in Corzine’s coffin? He has no idea how much suburbanites despise this bill.

    Would like to know which developments in the state are affected by this bill. Until Corzine lists them, people are going to assume the worst.

  108. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    There are a number of you that I had hoped to meet at the GTG tonight, but you won’t be there, notably Shore, HEHEHE, and some others.

    In order to stay caught up, like SAS, I have also created an email just for NJREReport posters.

    I can now be reached at my new anonymous email address, just for posters to this board: NomdeplumeNJ@gmail.com.

    Regulars, drop me a line so I have your emails, and can communicate off-line easier. Confidential emails are preferred as it makes selective sharing easier.

  109. PGC says:

    #104 Nicholas,

    I’ll raise your Anapolis and give you Ramsey

    http://newjersey.craigslist.org/mcy/1236459795.html

  110. John says:

    Ok, here is an interesting thing I noticed. I am born in NYC and the person I was talking to was born in NYC. Everyone in conversation of differenct nationalitites. Well the indian guy keeps saying “his culture”, what the heck we are all from NY. I can understand his religion, but aren’t we all the same culture? Does a guy of Gemman descent wear ladenhosen at his wedding in NY cause he is German? Kooky. Also is there a law to protect cultural rights, I mean what does that mean? Can an Irish guy say culturally I get drunk as a skunk on st. patties day adn bring a keg to work? I just ignore this stuff but it is a little weird.

  111. GerryAdams says:

    Shore-
    Kim’s in New Brunswick on French Street is a great bike store – quality bikes at a reasonable price.

  112. #108 – Shore – I made the mistake of getting on rt 35 in Middletown last Sat. I’ll never do that again. I haven’t lived in the area for a while, but good lord.
    My mom used to complain and say, ‘The traffic is getting as bad as Staten Island’. By almost any measure it’s worse. Seriously awful. 35 in Ocean is a mess, anything near Red Bank is hammered. The less said about Tom’s River the better.
    Syncmaster, if you’re in a place where you can avoid main roads congrats! The traffic is so obnoxious I don’t see why people would want to move here. Last Sat was so bad I pretty much made up my mind on moving to BK or Manhattan in 3-4 yrs.

  113. Sastry says:

    Shore #49 Previous Thread:

    There is something very wrong with a situation where our elected officials bend ober backwards to try and appease 12 million illegal aliens who all broke federal law and yet seems to work its @$$ off to prevent educated and skilled people who follow the rules from entering this country to work and contribute in high-value industries.

    I’d look at it this way… In principle, there is a quota for how many can enter legally: about 300,000 or so per year. There is a quota for illegal entry: 0. In reality, the first part is honored — and usually not reached because of how the quota has per-country limits — Indians and Chinese get over the limit quickly, professionals from other countries [including, say Taiwan, Srilanka, Indonesia, etc. are fine]. Also, the second part is quickly exceeded!

    Now, the problems arise is akin to taxing tobacco while trying to grapple with illegal drugs.

    The biggest problem is that the “legal” and “illegal” immigration portions are lumped in the same “immigration reform”. Based on what I know, the reform is supposed to help free up some additional numbers for employment-based and family-based immigration.

    My boss was from in California when he was going through the regular channels of immigration when Reagan pushed granted amnesty to illegal immigrants and pushed them to the top of the queue. My boss’ petition was pending for a while, and to this day he jokes that the lawyer told him that if he can prove that he violated his visa status somehow, he will get his green card faster.

    Oh, bad news… our movers told that one of their trucks broke down so we will move tomorrow morning. Good news is that I can come to GTG :)

    S

    Are we really that friggen stupid?

  114. scribe says:

    I will be at the GTG tonight – provided we don’t get massive thunderstorms since I have to travel via mass transit.

    Who else is planning on going?

  115. lisoosh says:

    Shore Guy says:
    June 26, 2009 at 7:56 am

    “As 55 and older places, they may be tolerable, as all-age developments, those places would be dreadful.”

    I can’t think of a single development built in the last 10 years that isn’t dreadful.

  116. Sastry says:

    Silera:

    Our next door neighbors are lovely. They have to be in their 70’s/80’s and whenever we’re outside the wife always makes sure to wave and is really sweet to the baby to the point that he calls her “other great grandma”.

    Our neighbor turned 88 last month and she is so sweet. She gets icecream for our daughter and once gave a ride to my wife after she was locked out of the car. She even comes and plays with my daughter when she is on the swing we put on a tree. My daughter ocalls her grandma…

    The new place has a 9 year old girl next door. The first day my daughter met her, she (my daughter) raised her arms to be lifted up, and the girl did oblige. My daughter keeps saying we are going to that girl’s place when we talk about the move…

    S

  117. lisoosh says:

    grim says:
    June 26, 2009 at 8:16 am

    “Am I alone in feeling that age-restricted (maybe segregated is a better description) developments are discriminatory?”

    I think the strongest case for discrimination would be zoning laws that lean heavily in favor of those developments.

    The seniors already used their political heft for a workaround regarding the developments themselves. Anyone ever go after a town?

    Course, now that over-55 is horribly over-built, the towns will reap their own “reward”.

    Social engineering, meet market forces.

  118. John says:

    Scary that the highest CD rate in the USA three years and under is only 2.8%. Even scarier that some banks are paying 1/2 of 1% on a one year cd.

    Highest Short-term CD Rates, as of June 25, 2009
    One-year Three-year Highest rate for
    Bank CD Rate CD Rate term <= 36 mos
    Highest Rates
    WFSL 2.05 2.80 2.80
    TSFG 1.33 2.75 2.75
    VLY 1.50 2.75 2.75
    Lowest Rates
    CFR 0.50 NA 1.20
    CMA 0.85 1.20 1.20
    TCB 0.50 0.70 1.20
    BOH 0.50 1.15 1.15

  119. Shore Guy says:

    A metaphor for the housing market:

    http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20090625/capt.105be6d1f1c649fdb8621e02c9112bf9.new_zealand_flying_ray_auk801.jpg?

    We must do everything possible to prevent the decline in the Ray’s altitude. It must stay up.

  120. Sastry says:

    I thought dying penniless was the best thing a man can do, but MJ outdid that by a wide margin… Unless the debt is sort of a staged thing to avoid paying large taxes.

    LOS ANGELES (AP) — Michael Jackson the singer was also Michael Jackson the billion-dollar business.

    Yet after selling more than 61 million albums in the U.S. and having a decade-long attraction open at Disney theme parks, the “King of Pop” died Thursday at age 50 reportedly awash in about $400 million in debt, on the cusp of a final comeback after well over a decade of scandal.

  121. Shore Guy says:

    Sastry,

    So he really was just like an average American.

  122. syncmaster says:

    Shore #108,

    Why? It sucks down there.

  123. Sastry says:

    John, be afraid when when people talk about their “culture”, “morals”, or “integrity”… Be very afraid!

    I think there is a great quote that goes something like, “The more he talked about his integrity, the faster the host was counting the silverware”.

    My experience has been that many general values are common across a large number of cultures: Peace, Prosperity, Good education, Respect towards elders, (some) Independent thought [this is a weak thing], etc. Of course, all guys across all cultures have only one thing on their mind!

    S

  124. NJGator says:

    Lisoosh 118 – You should see the place in Boca (Century Village West) where Stu’s folks have their winter condo. Cinder block barracks all over the place. I thought it looked like an army base, but my friend’s husband Marc summed it up the best when he said “I don’t understand why Jewish folks would want to live in a place that looks like a concentration camp.”

  125. John says:

    But it seems unusual that for instance even though he has a 9-5 job culture means mother-in-law and wife watch kids at in-laws house for first few weeks while he stays in his place feet on coach relaxing an getting a good night sleep is an interesting cultural thing.

    Sastry says:
    June 26, 2009 at 11:05 am
    John, be afraid when when people talk about their “culture”, “morals”, or “integrity”… Be very afraid!

    I think there is a great quote that goes something like, “The more he talked about his integrity, the faster the host was counting the silverware”.

    My experience has been that many general values are common across a large number of cultures: Peace, Prosperity, Good education, Respect towards elders, (some) Independent thought [this is a weak thing], etc. Of course, all guys across all cultures have only one thing on their mind!

    S

  126. PGC says:

    This ad is priceless. Oh to live the life you lead.

    http://newjersey.craigslist.org/hsh/1240217330.html

  127. Sastry says:

    Chinese Wisdom… Rivals that of the Vatican:

    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/china-eye/2009_06_25/Google_China_mess_gets_messier.html

    Google’s recent troubles began with a CCTV news broadcast that chastised the company for allowing users to find pornography and other vulgar content via the Chinese version of its search engine, Google.cn.

    The program included an interview with a young man named Gao Ye, who was described as a university student.

    Gao (shown here during the broadcast) complained that the pornographic content on Google.cn was particularly harmful. He said in the interview, ‘I have this fellow student and he’s been curious about these kinds of things. He visited porn Web sites and ended up becoming absent-minded for a while.’

  128. Sastry says:

    John:

    But it seems unusual that for instance even though he has a 9-5 job culture means mother-in-law and wife watch kids at in-laws house for first few weeks while he stays in his place feet on coach relaxing an getting a good night sleep is an interesting cultural thing.

    Admit it, you are jealous, aren’t you! Across my Indian and non-Indian friends there have been many variations of this:
    1. Wife stays at home for first few weeks and takes care of baby. Dad does auxiliary stuff [more normal]
    2. Same as 1, with in-laws visiting from India, Taiwan, etc. Typically girl’s mother — guy’s parents are difficult to tolerate [some believe that the pen.is mightier in a marriage!]
    3. Pack the kid to India as the kid is housebroken for a few months — in laws do the housebreaking [seen many cases]. Retrieve the kid when after potty training and when the kid is ready to go to kindergarten.
    4. Let the kid run around and throw some scraps of food when the kid cries loudly [my method]!

    S

  129. Kettle1 says:

    pgc,

    THE DYSON ROCKS!

    although i bought mine off the back of a truck for a song…

  130. safeashouses says:

    #130 sastry,

    I’m amazed at how many Chinese/Taiwanese/Indian parents send their kids to live with the grandparents in the old country for years.

    What’s the point of having kids if you don’t get to raise and play with them?

    Although I can see sending them back to the grandparents when they are know it all PITA teens.

  131. homeboken says:

    Via Dealbreaker – FDIC Chairman “They’re Just Like Us”

    FDIC’s Bair Cancels Listing After Cutting Home Price
    The property slump is hitting home for Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — one of the few regulators who saw trouble in the housing market before the bust.

    Last week, Ms. Bair removed her 14-room colonial in Amherst, Mass., from the market after cutting its sale price by $100,000 from an initial $795,000 in April, according to the listing sheet. It’s across the street from Emily Dickinson’s house in the college town.

    Ms. Bair, and her husband, Scott P. Cooper, paid $355,000 for the house in 2002. In “02 and “03 they received building permits valued at $89,500 to renovate the 1860s house., including new roofing and a counter-current basement pool. In 2006, President George W. Bush appointed Ms. Bair, then a professor at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst’s school of management, to the FDIC post, and she was one of the few officials to remain in their positions in the Obama administration.

    View Slideshow
    After listing the five-bedroom property in April, the couple cut the price to $745,000 less than three weeks later, then reduced it again before withdrawing the listing. Ms. Bair’s real-estate agent, Stephen Feldman, of Prudential Sawicki Real Estate, declined comment. An FDIC spokesman said Ms. Bair decided to remove the listing and wait for the market to improve on the advice of her real-estate agent. The family will continue to lease the house to its tenants. Ms. Bair and her family currently rent a house in Maryland.

    Houses in downtown Amherst are a tough sell in the current economy, said Linda Rotti, a sales manager at Jones Group Realty, another agent in town. The downtown location, extensive remodeling and size of Ms. Bair’s house — it has 3,630 square feet of living space — pose difficulties, Ms. Rotti said.

  132. Sastry says:

    Safe #133:

    This is more common (based on limited observations) when the couple has a kid within the first year or so of marriage — when they are still trying to learn how to use these thingies for birth control!

    S

  133. lisoosh says:

    #127 – That is funny.

  134. safeashouses says:

    #133

    An FDIC spokesman said Ms. Bair decided to remove the listing and wait for the market to improve on the advice of her real-estate agent. The family will continue to lease the house to its tenants.

    She spent 450k on her house. Do you expect her to give it away at anything less than a 50% increase? If she bought it with 20% down she’d only make 4 or 5 times her initial downpayment.

    And she is the best regulator we have? The end is nigh.

  135. lisoosh says:

    #132 Safe –
    I have a hard time with that too. The extended family/ several generations under one roof thing I get. Wouldn’t want to live it, but the benefits are obvious.
    Sending the kids away for the summer – that I get too.
    Sending them away for the first few years of their lives – THAT is a lot harder to come to terms with. Especially where people are actually relatively financially sound.

  136. safeashouses says:

    #134 sastry,

    My mother-in-law and her sister kept insisting we send the kids back to Taiwan. We told them no.

    MIL came to US to “help” with the second one. she drove me nuts.

  137. cooper says:

    “It’s across the street from Emily Dickinson’s house in the college town”

    I can’t believe it didn’t sell

  138. John says:

    Funny, Chinese restaurant I go to women has her son there after work a lot, last september a five year girl appears. I go is that your neice, says no it is my daughter, I send them to China as soon as they are born and they come back the week before kindergarten.

  139. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [133] homeboken

    “It’s across the street from Emily Dickinson’s house in the college town.”

    That is why it isn’t selling. The Dickinson house is on Main Street (which isn’t really the main street) and is the main route into town from all points east. There’s a lot of traffic, and that is also the intersection one would take to go directly to UMass and avoid downtown Amherst (which is just up the hill).

    Also, there is a liquor store across the street, so it is not one of the better spots on that street.

    Amherst is a beautiful town, and is on the list of my favorite places to retire. That house isn’t in the best section though.

  140. John says:

    I tell you one thing if I have a lazy son in law who expects me to watch his kids I will literally pull his ears off and crush his neck with my boot.

  141. Silera says:

    “The biggest problem is that the “legal” and “illegal” immigration portions are lumped in the same “immigration reform”. Based on what I know, the reform is supposed to help free up some additional numbers for employment-based and family-based immigration.”

    Sastry-
    I agree that this is how the immigration reform is presented and my bias as a child of Dominican immigrants probably affects my opinion.

    The fact is “illegal” immigrants were born of an immigration policy formulated to keep out Italians and Irish. The initial quotas used were biased towards Europeans of Protestant descent-Germans etc. It’s hard for me sometimes to read/hear the really disparaging, and ironically parallel remarks made about Hispanics that were made about the Irish and Italians.

    My favorite is the misnomer that their ancestors came here “legally”. Well, of course they did. At the time, there was no quota system or true restrictions on immigration.

    The current quota system inherently discriminates against Asians and Hispanics. In 1910 the foreign born population of the US made up 14.7% of the population. In 2008 it made up 12.6%. Obviously there are serious issues to grapple with but I can’t help but think that the boom in immigration in 1910′-1920’s led in part to a huge era of prosperity for the US. Why is the new wave of predominantly Hispanic immigration considered so detrimental?

  142. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [141] redux

    BTW, that liquor store was the first one my new buds and I bought beer at in Amherst. It was during freshman orientation.

  143. Sastry says:

    The Indians/Chinese are the new “WASP immigrants” and the Hispanics are the new “Irish/Italians”. The Arabs are the new commies. Rinse, lather, repeat.

    S

  144. Silera says:

    “I tell you one thing if I have a lazy son in law who expects me to watch his kids I will literally pull his ears off and crush his neck with my boot.”

    Lies. You don’t own boots as they’re are for the uncouth and laborers.

    You just knock them.

  145. jcer says:

    Traffic in monmouth and ocean county is atrocious because the road systems where never designed for the population that lives there now. Bergen, Essex,Union,Middlesex,Somerset(to a lesser extent) don’t seem to have the local traffic issues because large highways bisect the towns and either you are getting on a highway or going really locally. Rush hour is the only time you really see bad congestion in these places. Monmouth and Ocean has the parkway and …, the parkway and narrow local highways with lights that breed congestion. The highways really move the population and if the access to north/south, East/West corridors isn’t good the local roads, highways, and county roads suffer. Besides Monmouth and Ocean, NJ road system actually is pretty effective as long as you don’t have to go to NYC(From NNJ) or Philadelphia(From SNJ). I hate traffic, thus one of the reasons I may never live in suburbia again, the commute east is to much of a bear, but going anywhere else was not a huge problem.

    Monmouth needs road development, but given the way things work today and all of the people who will complain about highway spurs coming too close to their homes. I mean rt 9 needs to be a real highway with overpasses as does 18, 35, etc. Widen them and add overpasses and a lot of the could be reduced. In Monmouth parkway access seems to be the key to avoiding traffic hell. I cringe when i have to go down there to see family.

  146. BklynHawk says:

    At least NJ can be proud not to have made this list…

    25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America, Cincinnati Tops List

    Where is the most dangerous neighborhood in America? According to data compiled by Dr. Andrew Schiller and NeighborhoodScout.com the most dangerous neighborhood in the United States is in… Cincinnati, Ohio? Specifically, the “Brewery District” of the Cincinnati neighborhood known as “Over the Rhine.”

    The List of the 25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods in America contains many such surprises. Remember, this is not just a list of the most dangerous CITIES in the country, this top 25 list breaks it down to a much more specific geographical area… neighborhoods within cities.

    http://www.nowpublic.com/world/most-dangerous-neighborhood-america-top-25-list-cincinnati-1

  147. Sastry says:

    The French are the new British and the British are the new French.

    Last world cup, on July 4, I was joking that I’d be cheering for UK against France, and not many “Americans” got the joke. In fact someone told me that some of the guys may think that it was a patriotic thing to do.

  148. BklynHawk says:

    And to kind of bookend that, NJ is well represented on this list…

    Top 100 Safest Cities in the US

    http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/neighborhoods/crime-rates/top100safest/

  149. Kettle1 says:

    Silera 143

    I can’t help but think that the boom in immigration in 1910′-1920’s led in part to a huge era of prosperity for the US. Why is the new wave of predominantly Hispanic immigration considered so detrimental?

    Early 1900’s USA was an expanding industrializing nation. USA 2009 is a top industrialized nation and has reached a steady state in that expansion generally ended 20 years ago.

    A wide open policy makes no sense for a steady state nation just as a restrictive policy makes no sense for an expanding nation.

  150. jcer says:

    Brklyn, I don’t know how the NJ cities avoided the list. Too small perhaps. I was in Camden last week, that place deserves to be on the list. MLK area of Jersey City is really bad. Irvington is one of the seediest places i have ever been. I don’t doubt the places listed are bad, but how the h*ll holes in NJ are not included baffles me.

  151. Silera says:

    Kettle, I don’t necessarily disagree with that. Obviously, I’m out of my league with regards to the economics of it all. Every year though, the goal is to increase GDP.

    From everything I read and observe, what we’ve been best at lately is exporting jobs. This resulted in more consumption than production. More consumption than production turned the US from savers to debtors in the course of the last 50 yrs.

    Maybe being a steady state isn’t working out?

  152. Clotpoll says:

    boken (133)-

    Dumb bitch.

    She should call me for some RE advice…

  153. Kettle1 says:

    Silera,
    acting as a “steady state” nation in a fiat global economy would mean you would be a financial loser. the only way to win in a global fiat economy is to expand until you control the largest portion of the global economy. Its suicidal in the end, but you are forced to play the game if you want to be part of global economy.

    The US knows this and hence acts to continually expand its financial dominance,although seems to have hit a snag recently ;)

  154. skep-tic says:

    #7

    “New delinquencies increased across all product types, spiking among government-insured mortgages — including those insured by the Federal Housing Administration — which now sits at a level even with option adjustable-rate mortgages and just below Alt-A mortgages.”

    FHA dam beginning to leak

  155. Sastry says:

    BklynHawk #151

    Piscataway, the third safest city in the US (if it can be called a city)? Impressive.

    S

  156. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [150] brklynhawk

    I question their methodology. Mass. is also well-represented, and I generally agree with their picks, but there are some that struck me as odd. For example, Milton and North Andover Ma. are both decent areas but they border awfully sketchy parts of the state.

    Also my wife’s hometown of Southampton, PA was on the list but near to it was Bensalem PA. Bensalem??? I consider that area to be in or near the trashy end of Bucks county, and not all that safe.

  157. John says:

    I guess Ivory Snow Soap is next to go bankrupt!

    Sastry says:
    June 26, 2009 at 11:43 am
    The Indians/Chinese are the new “WASP immigrants” and the Hispanics are the new “Irish/Italians”. The Arabs are the new commies. Rinse, lather, repeat.

    S

  158. Kettle1 says:

    I swear this is real!!!!!

    Gazprom seals $2.5bn Nigeria deal
    Gazprom building

    Russia’s energy giant Gazprom has signed a $2.5bn (£1.53bn) deal with Nigeria’s state operated NNPC, to invest in a new joint venture.

    The new firm, to be called Nigaz, is set to build refineries, pipelines and gas power stations in Nigeria.

    Analysts say the move could further strengthen Russia’s role in supplying natural gas to Europe.

    The agreement comes during a four-day African tour by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

    As well as forming Nigaz, Russia is keen on developing a trans-African pipeline to transport Nigerian gas to Europe.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8118721.stm

  159. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [148]brkyn

    That’s because it goes by ‘hood, not municipality. Camden is perenially near the top for cities. There must be a metric that somehow excludes entire cities that may qualify, or is based on size, since all of the cities on the list were pretty big, bigger than Camden or Newark.

  160. goonsquad says:

    These safe/dangerous lists are funny. I used google maps street view to take a look at some of the neighborhoods. I tried the same in Camden and no street view photos have been taken. Doesn’t this say something if the google folks don’t feel safe enough to get off admiral wilson blvd to snap some photos?

  161. Kettle1 says:

    HAHAHAHAH those are some nice numbers.

    The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for the unemployment rate to peak at 8.7% in 2010. The Congressional Budget Office predicts it will peak at 9.0% in 2010. However, the president’s budget predicts the unemployment rate will peak at 8.1% this year and then fall to 7.9% in 2010.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/124458-obama-s-unemployment-forecast-much-too-rosy

  162. Kettle1 says:

    this is very unfortunate but hilarious

    As well as forming Nigaz, Russia is keen on developing a trans-African pipeline to transport Nigerian gas to Europe.

  163. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [154] clot,

    c’mon, that is hardly the issue. When she took the position at UMass, which has one of the best undergrad biz schools in the nation, she probably thought she wasn’t leaving. When folks like that retire to academia, that’s it. And as I indicated before, Amherst is a great place to retire to.

    Her problem is the same one all of these folks face when they take appointments in DC. I used to live there too, and that was one of the biggest issues they grappled with. It’s the reason so many of them rent.

    Now, if I were advising her, I would tell her not to sell, first because of the market, and second, she may yet live there again. Once her tenure in DC ends, you can bet that UMass will offer her a full professor spot. They’d be foolish not to.

  164. Joey says:

    159)

    Their corporate logo could be some form of gang sign

  165. safeashouses says:

    #163 kettle,

    Sounds like the rebirth of NWA.

  166. safeashouses says:

    I just applied or a job that asked me to select which ethnic group/race I most identify with. i think next time I see that I will select black/african american since I grew up in a black neighborhood.

    I wonder if that would increase my chance of getting an interview.

    It’s not asking me what I am, but who I identify with.

  167. Kettle1 says:

    Joey,

    this might work better,

    http://tinyurl.com/mrmrpb

  168. Kettle1 says:

    Green Shoots!!!

    According to the Federal Reserve, U.S. household net worth fell by $1.3 trillion in the first quarter, proving that green shoots are something of a fairy tale for the U.S. consumer, at least.

    In fact, since its peak in the third quarter of 2007, household wealth has decreased by 21.6%, or more than a fifth. That is the most dramatic fall in the series since reporting began more than 50 years ago.

  169. Kettle1 says:

    John 171

    Wilt was, right?

  170. Kettle1 says:

    More green shoots

    US Savings Rate Hits 6.9%, Highest In 15 Years
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aome1_t5Z5y8

    this will help a consumer economy right?

  171. safeashouses says:

    3 handle in Florham Park!

    http://www.trulia.com/property/price/1077686609-91-Beechwood-Rd-Florham-Park-NJ-07932

    Also FP is down 12% YOY through May 09, and down 6% in the last 3 months. I’ve noticed that in a few other towns, that half the YOY drop happened in the last quarter.

  172. HEHEHE says:

    “”Where is the most dangerous neighborhood in America? According to data compiled by Dr. Andrew Schiller and NeighborhoodScout.com the most dangerous neighborhood in the United States is in… Cincinnati, Ohio? Specifically, the “Brewery District” of the Cincinnati neighborhood known as “Over the Rhine.””

    I grew up in Cincinnati and spent 27 years there and can safely say it’s a terribly run city. Over the Rhine was always a shady neighborhood. Lot’s of poor African Americans with little or no local economic opportunity and lousy public schools. The area started to get gentrified in the early nineties. There was a movement to put the new Reds stadium in that area to further the gentrification and to create some additional jobs. Instead the knuckleheads running the town put it on the river. There’s like one bar and a couple of restaurants on the Cincinnati side of the river near the stadium and an entire enterainment complex across the river in Kentucky within walking distance of the stadium. All those jobs and money could have been Cincinnati’s. Morons.

    A few years ago there was the race riots following a white cop shooting a black teenager; a somewhat frequent occurrence in the neighborhood. After the riots the police department’s attitude was basically screw it, you are going to claim police brutality, we’ll just stay out of the neighborhood and show up after the fact. Subsequently the murder rate, and gang activity has sky rocketed in that neighborhood. There were a lot of bars, restaurants and clubs that closed in the subsequent years.

    The reality is the police brutality/subsequent police brush off is a smoke screen for the underlying problem of a particular population being isolated for decades from any economic/educational opportunity. Now its drug dealing and death.

  173. renter says:

    Asking prices are all over the place. I wonder when asking prices will become consistent within towns.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/50-Skillman-Rd_Skillman_NJ_08558_1108823222

  174. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [154] clot

    for grins, use google maps and search for this address: 232 Main Street, Amherst Ma.

    Blding on lower side of street is hers, based on pic in WSJ and location. the two Dickinson houses are across the street (the one in front of her house is not the main house, but a family house called The Evergreens).

    Interestingly, I see that Amtrak has a station just yards away, but I never remember those tracks being active for Amtrak, even though the Vermonter goes through there.

  175. veto that says:

    “The Indians/Chinese are the new “WASP immigrants” and the Hispanics are the new “Irish/Italians”. The Arabs are the new commies. Rinse, lather, repeat.”

    Sastry, please. You are getting way ahead of yourself. The Indians are more like Mexicans with computer skills. US was flooded with skilled Japanese in the eighties who also worked for half price. they didnt become the new anything.

  176. watergapnomad says:

    Here’s a real head scratcher….

    House for sale in Nutley, was listed at $599K a few months back, recently reduced to $575K.

    According to cyberhomes.com, it was appraised in 2008 @ 508K.

    Why in the world would any realtor agree to list this house for a price so much higher than it’s appraised value, esp. considering how much the market has deteriorated in the past year?

    It’s truly baffling. Even if the seller is unrealistic, wouldn’t a smart RE agent just walk away from this listing, knowing that there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of it ever selling?

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/19-Joerg-Ave_Nutley_NJ_07110_1106362174#Request

    http://www.cyberhomes.com/homes-nutley-nj-07110/19joergave/81917123.aspx

  177. Clotpoll says:

    plume (164)-

    I’m hoping her next address is Leavenworth.

  178. HEHEHE says:

    She supposedly has a lap pool in that place?

  179. skep-tic says:

    bikers out there– would it really ruin the experience to not wear spandex?

  180. Kettle1 says:

    HEHEH

    i believe it is one of these

    http://www.endlesspools.com/gallery/index.html

    i.e. a countercurrent pool

  181. HEHEHE says:

    Maybe she’ll drown.

  182. zieba says:

    You have to go spandex. It’s so much about the spandex as it is about the crotch diaper insert thing.

  183. Sean says:

    I always wanted to learn how to operate heavy equipment, perhaps it is time to run out and get one of Bulldozer Operator licenses.

    US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive

    Dozens of US cities may have entire neighbourhoods bulldozed as part of drastic “shrink to survive” proposals being considered by the Obama administration to tackle economic decline.

    The government is looking at expanding a pioneering scheme in Flint, one of the poorest US cities, which involves razing entire districts and returning the land to nature.

    The radical experiment is the brainchild of Dan Kildee, treasurer of Genesee County, which includes Flint.

    Having outlined his strategy to Barack Obama during the election campaign, Mr Kildee has now been approached by the US government and a group of charities who want him to apply what he has learnt to the rest of the country.

    Mr Kildee said he will concentrate on 50 cities, identified in a recent study by the Brookings Institution, an influential Washington think-tank, as potentially needing to shrink substantially to cope with their declining fortunes.

    Most are former industrial cities in the “rust belt” of America’s Mid-West and North East. They include Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Memphis.

    In Detroit, shattered by the woes of the US car industry, there are already plans to split it into a collection of small urban centres separated from each other by countryside.

    The local authority has restored the city’s attractive but formerly deserted centre but has pulled down 1,100 abandoned homes in outlying areas [of Flint].

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5516536/US-cities-may-have-to-be-bulldozed-in-order-to-survive.html

  184. chicagofinance says:

    veto that says:
    June 26, 2009 at 1:36 pm
    Sastry, please. The Indians are more like Mexicans with computer skills.

    veto: This comment is so funny because I know how many people I know would be thoroughly pissed off and offended by it.

  185. skep-tic says:

    Sheila Bair, yet another high level official who doesn’t get it.

  186. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    John,

    Saw a car driven by someone you probably dated back in the day.

    NJ plates: “4UMQT”

    Took me a minute to figure out the “4UM” part.

  187. skep-tic says:

    #The current quota system inherently discriminates against Asians and Hispanics. In 1910 the foreign born population of the US made up 14.7% of the population. In 2008 it made up 12.6%. Obviously there are serious issues to grapple with but I can’t help but think that the boom in immigration in 1910′-1920’s led in part to a huge era of prosperity for the US. Why is the new wave of predominantly Hispanic immigration considered so detrimental?”

    #143

    one reason is because there are massive gov’t social welfare programs that exist now that didn’t in 1910. going along with this, look at overall tax levels of U.S. citizens today vs back then

  188. Clotpoll says:

    Does anyone else find it troubling that two of the chief financial people in the gubmint (Timmay and Bairtrap) are both underwater bagholders?

  189. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [182] skep

    You can get bikewear that isn’t spandex. I have a pair of black cargo shorts with a biking insert (think swimwear with padding) so you can hop off the bike in town, walk around, and not feel as though you were trying out for a cameo in Bruno.

  190. safeashouses says:

    #191 clot

    Conflict of interest or just clueless?

  191. safeashouses says:

    Australian households have lost 36% of their wealth.

    http://business.smh.com.au/business/weve-lost-36-of-wealth-20090626-cztp.html

    Green shoots down under?

  192. Sean says:

    NJ has an Indian population of about 650k and a Mexican population of 250k.

    Are those groups starting to intermarry yet?

    Will we see a wave of Chapati Burrito joints open up?

  193. skep-tic says:

    so why doesn’t cincinati have any decent rappers?

  194. chicagofinance says:

    x-underwriter says:
    June 26, 2009 at 9:09 am

    Grim, You have the ability to see what the IP addresses are of each poster and what company they are registered to.
    What IP address is post #62 registered to? The O.T.B. in Flushing?

    x: WATCH IT BUB!

  195. skep-tic says:

    “Does anyone else find it troubling that two of the chief financial people in the gubmint (Timmay and Bairtrap) are both underwater bagholders?”

    actually, bernanke is underwater too. the brain trust.

  196. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    June 26, 2009 at 10:22 am
    syncmaster, Come to Monmouth and Ocean Counties.

    shore: agreed….Eastern Monmouth is kind of the best of all worlds if you choose carefully and have the right job.

  197. skep-tic says:

    just one of many potential perverse effects of this climate bill:

    **********

    June 26 (Bloomberg) — America’s biggest oil companies will probably cope with U.S. carbon legislation by closing fuel plants, cutting capital spending and increasing imports.

    Under the Waxman-Markey climate bill that may be voted on today by the U.S. House, refiners would have to buy allowances for carbon dioxide spewed from their plants and from vehicles when motorists burn their fuel. Imports would need permits only for the latter, which ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Jim Mulva said would create a competitive imbalance.

    “It will lead to the opportunity for foreign sources to bring in transportation fuels at a lower cost, which will have an adverse impact to our industry, potential shutdown of refineries and investment and, ultimately, employment,” Mulva said in a June 16 interview in Detroit. Houston-based ConocoPhillips has the second-largest U.S. refining capacity.

    The same amount of gasoline that would have $1 in carbon costs imposed if it were domestic would have 10 cents less added if it were imported, according to energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie in Houston. Contrary to President Barack Obama’s goal of reducing dependence on overseas energy suppliers, the bill would incent U.S. refiners to import more fuel, said Clayton Mahaffey, an analyst at RedChip Cos. in Maitland, Florida.

    “They’ll be searching the globe for refined products that don’t carry the same level of carbon costs,” said Mahaffey, a former Exxon Corp. refinery manager.

  198. Silera says:

    True Skeptic, income tax was in its infancy at the time. I think like 5% of the population paid taxes. Social Security didn’t exist at the time either. However, the elimination of a shadow workforce that doesn’t contribute to social security could very well offset that.

  199. chicagofinance says:

    jcer says:
    June 26, 2009 at 11:45 am
    Traffic in monmouth and ocean county is atrocious because the road systems where never designed for the population that lives there now. Bergen, Essex,Union,Middlesex,Somerset(to a lesser extent) don’t seem to have the local traffic issues because large highways bisect the towns and either you are getting on a highway or going really locally. Rush hour is the only time you really see bad congestion in these places. Monmouth and Ocean has the parkway and …, the parkway and narrow local highways with lights that breed congestion. The highways really move the population and if the access to north/south, East/West corridors isn’t good the local roads, highways, and county roads suffer. Besides Monmouth and Ocean, NJ road system actually is pretty effective as long as you don’t have to go to NYC(From NNJ) or Philadelphia(From SNJ). I hate traffic, thus one of the reasons I may never live in suburbia again, the commute east is to much of a bear, but going anywhere else was not a huge problem. I mean rt 9 needs to be a real highway with overpasses as does 18, 35, etc. Widen them and add overpasses and a lot of the could be reduced.

    jcer: Ever consider that you only come down here during the peak summer season when everyone else is here and it is crowded?

    Route 18 has no traffic lights or at grade crossings in Monmouth County. There is no need to drive on US-9 or 35 unless you have a specific reason to go to a local address.

    Further, I have actually driven from the GSP Exit 109 to my house (8 miles) at 7PM on a Sunday and not seen a car!

    I was actually scared that something horrible might have happened.

  200. skep-tic says:

    Silera– my view is that pretending immigrants aren’t here is the worst possible strategy. Either enforce the law for real or change it to reflect reality (latter seems to me way more practical). My only point is that people who claim that immigration issues today are the same as they ever were are over simplifying. I agree on the racial prejudice level, but otherwise, I think the circumstances are quite different.

  201. RentinginNJ says:

    Ok, so we’ve got a 16 year supply of age restricted housing. We’ve got legislation to allow developers to remove age restrictions.

    The legislation also says that 20% of the converted units must be set aside for low-income. Local zoning boards must also approve the change.

    I can see the conversation now:

    Developer: “Uhm, remember when we told you that we could bring in property tax revenues without increasing the burden on your schools”?

    Mayor: “Yes”

    Developer: “Well, things didn’t turn out quite as planned…turns out a lot of towns had the same idea. We thought that seniors would sell their capes to Wall Street tycoons and move to our retirement community, but it turns out that seniors either can’t sell or they leave NJ for lower cost states. Now “Shady Acres” is only half-full”

    Mayor: “So, how is that my problem?”

    Developer: “Well, empty dilapidated homes lead to crime and are bad for property vales”

    Mayor: “Ok, so what do we do?”

    Developer: “Well, we open “Shady Acres” up to anyone…there is a catch though, 20% will be set aside for low income…how many kids can possible move in”?

    Mayor: “Not a chance…but on the town garage has a bulldozer you can borrow”.

  202. John says:

    For You My Cutie! I like YRUAPUD and IXLR28XS

  203. John says:

    Unless the Indians are typing with the non-wiping hand I ain’t touching that keyboard.

    veto that says:
    June 26, 2009 at 1:36 pm
    “The Indians/Chinese are the new “WASP immigrants” and the Hispanics are the new “Irish/Italians”. The Arabs are the new commies. Rinse, lather, repeat.”

    Sastry, please. You are getting way ahead of yourself. The Indians are more like Mexicans with computer skills. US was flooded with skilled Japanese in the eighties who also worked for half price. they didnt become the new anything.

  204. Sastry says:

    Sean #197…

    NJ has an Indian population of about 650k and a Mexican population of 250k.

    Are those groups starting to intermarry yet?

    You probably don’t know much about the prejudices of the Indian diaspora… The closest thing for comparison would be the race/class dynamics in UK. Three is a large portion of Indian/Pakistani population and their dynamics with EliteWhite/BlueCollarWhite/Black populations are interesting to see.

    Short answer is “unlikely to see a large number of Indian/Mexican marriages”. Class seems to play a bigger role than race.

    It is sh!t, but it does exist.

    S

  205. John says:

    Re 207, so you are saying that people who work in dunkin donuts are of a higher class than landscapers?

  206. Sastry says:

    John #210. It’s probably too complex to explain, so you please go ahead and mention your observations, and I’ll concede the point. I think this stuff is serious enough for me to not say too much carelessly.

    S

  207. House Whine says:

    I stopped believing surveys that rate towns, cities, etc. when Money Magazine recently rated Franklin Twp. way up there as a great place to live. Do they not know about the drive-by shootings?? I love parts of Franklin Twp. and it is a diverse place, but I would hardly say it was one of the top places to live in the U.S.

  208. Sean says:

    re: #207 Sastry one thing this country is very good at is being a melting pot, you can expect some interbreeding. The kids of the landscapers and the Dunkin Donuts workers will all grow up together and go to school toghether and will co-mingle.

    It is only a matter of time before we have a bunch of Kumar Villanuevas running around, and the ways of the old Indian Caste system will wither as well and be replaced with the American version of a Caste system.

  209. Silera says:

    My son is 1/2 dominican, 1/4 irish, 1/8 portuguese and 1/8 german.

  210. Sastry says:

    Sean #213…

    In UK, there are more splits along the lines of class (even within a race). These things are amusing to look at statistically, and probably do not mean much on a case-by-case basis.

    S

  211. Sastry says:

    Silera #214:

    I hope he has a thick skin to not take nasty comments on any ethnicity personally…

    S

  212. Sean says:

    Amusing as any religious orthodoxy and its degenerate caste system that divides and re divides people into innumerable classes,
    groups, subgroups.

    Hopefully there won’t be any bride burning when the landscaper’s son wants to marry the dunkin donuts clerk’s daughter.

  213. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [205] john,

    I thought it was “Forum Cutie” which would suggest pron mag centerfold. Isn’t Forum a pron mag?

    wow, my interpretation went into the gutter before yours? that has to be a first.

  214. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [214] silera

    During soccer games, does he have to beat himself up?

  215. Shore Guy says:

    “Ever consider that you only come down here during the peak summer season when everyone else is here and it is crowded?”

    I am a native, and can attest to the dismal state of the infrastructure at the Shore. For example, try traveling from Hooper and Water Street in Toms River to Point PLeasant via Hooper, Brick Blvd., and 88. Winter, summer, it does not matter. The roads are undersized. Back in the late 60s and early 70s some visionary officials called for roadway expansion. What happened? People rejected it because, and I kid you not, “If we build more roads it will just attract people from North Jersey.”

    Guess what, you came down anyway. Travel on Rt 70 sucks. Route 9 is abysmal. In the winter the Parkway backs up from Lacey to Brick, this is just commuter traffic, and if there is an accident, just try getting around it as the back roads can’t handle the volume, assuming one was lucky enough to get off at one of the very few exits available in the area.

    Rt 18 is a rare bright spot, and 138 is not too bad most days, nor is Deal Road, most of the rest of the area, from Exit 105 south, has insufficient infrastructure, even in the off-season (because this is far less a seasonal economy anymore, not with people commuting to NY from Waretown).

  216. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [205] skeptic

    We’re all immigrants. Just ask any Native American.

  217. Shore Guy says:

    Any other geezers here remember when “Juan Epstein” (for you whippersnappers, a character on Welcome Back Kotter — a Sweathog, in fact) was funny? Now it is a fact of life.

  218. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    Archeological evidence seems to show that even the “Native Americans” pushed out a group (related to Lapplanders as I recall) who were here first. Only God knows who the Lapps killed off to take over the place.

  219. Shore Guy says:

    Now that the anthropology lesson is concluded, it is time to head back to the grindstone.

  220. veto that says:

    “unlikely to see a large number of Indian/Mexican marriages”.

    The blacks push their nose up in the air to mexicans and the mexicans do the same to blacks. everyone is better than everyone else.
    Same story with the english and scottish, italian and french, swedish and norwegian, irish and german, japanese and chinese.
    please.

  221. nj escapee says:

    yeah, Mr Kotta, Mr Kotta

  222. Kettle1 says:

    Shore,

    I believe that i say something about some genetic evidence pointing towards some pacific islander populations possibly arriving in south america before the native americans as well.

  223. relo says:

    Pretty sure I remember meeting a laplander in Vegas.

  224. S&P looking to downgrade $235 Billion in CMBS.

  225. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    June 26, 2009 at 3:15 pm
    “Juan Epstein”

    shore: my cousin (Jewish) married a Dominican guy…their son is Max Cruz

    Also, a good friend of mine is Venezuelan with a full-blooded Jewish European background….Andres Rabinovich…I used to call him Juan Epstein….

  226. Silera says:

    Comrade you have me laughing like a dummy.

    Whenever our son gets a knot on his big Irish head, my husband and I blame one of his ethnic alters.

    “Sosa forgot to practice with the uncorked bat Collin?”

    “Shamus hit the guinness again early today?”

    He’s almost 4 so he has no idea, he’s used to us asking dumb questions. He always replies, “No momma, I just hit my big head again.”

  227. x-underwriter says:

    skep-tic says:
    bikers out there– would it really ruin the experience to not wear spandex?

    I was hesitant to wear the tights for years due to the, uh, stigma. I saw a pair at Marshalls once about 10 years ago for cheap so I said what the heck.
    I haven’t gone riding without them since.
    My future generations thank me. They keep certain things up and out of the way and you avoid chafing your inner thighs.

  228. #212 – My son is 1/2 dominican, 1/4 irish, 1/8 portuguese and 1/8 german.

    You know, when I was a kid this would have been unusual. It’s almost common now to have very mixed heritages. For the Europeans we’re all so far removed from the old country that they’re just names now, no real connection at all.

    … unless you’re Irish. Clearly they are God’s chosen people.

  229. x-underwriter says:

    chicagofinance says:
    x: WATCH IT BUB!

    Grim already told me you work at MarthaStewart.com

  230. Kettle1 says:

    Wall Street Begins Campaign to Thwart ‘Populist Overreaction’

    Wall Street’s largest trade group has started a campaign to counter the “populist” backlash against bankers, enlisting two former aides to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to spearhead the effort.
    In memos of confidential meetings with top financial executives, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said it began this month the “execution phase” of the operation, which pledges to “embrace change” and accountability. The plan targets policy makers and the media in New York, London, Washington and Brussels and calls for a “city-by-city, grass roots” approach.

    The securities industry “must be perceived as part of the solution, which will allow it to better defend against populist overreaction,” the documents, prepared for a June 17 meeting of SIFMA’s board, said. The board meeting minutes and staff-written papers, obtained by Bloomberg News, outline the program crafted by polling, lobbying and public relations companies paid at least $85,000 a month. The memos provide a glimpse, in often candid language, into how Wall Street is grappling with its pariah status.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNBWPPxGyWaU

  231. homeboken says:

    x-under – Agreed, if you are riding any sort of real distance, you want the spandex. May not look appealing externally but your jewels and thighs will love your for it.

  232. Doyle says:

    … unless you’re Irish. Clearly they are God’s chosen people.

    As long as were on the same page…

  233. Kettle1 says:

    Judge grapples with her discovery of 15,000 unserved foreclosure cases

    A Miami-Dade Circuit Court judge discovered more than 15,000 foreclosure cases filed this year haven’t been served. It’s the latest shoe to drop in a foreclosure crisis garnering nationwide attention, and an unwelcome discovery in the face of state budget cuts that produced layoffs for courts and clerks. The backlog is critical because cases where homeowners haven’t been served within four months are subject to dismissal.

    Civil Division Administrative Judge Jennifer D. Bailey made the discovery last month as she was taking stock of the circuit’s foreclosure load. She noticed 15,219 cases with no letters of correspondence, no answers and no motions to dismiss. “In other words, no service,” she said. The circuit is scrambling to find the root of the problem, which could jeopardize most of this year’s 17,000 foreclosure filings. Most of the cases still fall within the four-month window, but no program is in place to speed things up.

    If a foreclosure proceeds to a default judgment with no service on the defendants, it could lead to a title dispute down the road

    http://www.dailybusinessreview.com/Web_Blog_Stories/2009/June/Unservd_foreclosre.html?ref=patrick.net

  234. Sean says:

    Kettle1 – Clovis hunters were the first human and they hunted the wolly mammouth. I saw a show on TV a few years ago that said a large asteroid exploded over North America about 13k years ago and plunged the whole continent into a 1,000 year ice age which killed off the first human inhabitants the Clovis,woolly mammoths, American lions, and the saber tooth tiger.

    It could happen again an asteroid the size of Manhattan is apparently heading this way.

  235. cobbler says:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8118257.stm

    (in case this important article had not been posted yet)

  236. Kettle1 says:

    interesting story by rolling stone on GS

    The Big Takeover
    The global economic crisis isn’t about money – it’s about power. How Wall Street insiders are using the bailout to stage a revolution

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/print

  237. x-underwriter says:

    homeboken says:
    June 26, 2009 at 3:36 pm
    x-under – Agreed, if you are riding any sort of real distance, you want the spandex. May not look appealing externally but your jewels and thighs will love your for it.

    I really hate walking in public with them though…you feel self concious, like everyone is wondering if you’re in a village people video

  238. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    June 26, 2009 at 3:13 pm
    I am a native, and can attest to the dismal state of the infrastructure at the Shore. For example, try traveling from Hooper and Water Street in Toms River to Point PLeasant via Hooper, Brick Blvd., and 88. Winter, summer, it does not matter. The roads are undersized. Back in the late 60s and early 70s some visionary officials called for roadway expansion. What happened? People rejected it because, and I kid you not, “If we build more roads it will just attract people from North Jersey.”

    Guess what, you came down anyway. Travel on Rt 70 sucks. Route 9 is abysmal. In the winter the Parkway backs up from Lacey to Brick, this is just commuter traffic, and if there is an accident, just try getting around it as the back roads can’t handle the volume, assuming one was lucky enough to get off at one of the very few exits available in the area. Rt 18 is a rare bright spot, and 138 is not too bad most days, nor is Deal Road, most of the rest of the area, from Exit 105 south, has insufficient infrastructure, even in the off-season (because this is far less a seasonal economy anymore, not with people commuting to NY from Waretown).

    shore: You are talking more about Ocean County. You can’t really commute to NYC from Ocean though.

    If you pick the right parts of Middletown Township, Holmdel, Colts Neck, West Long Branch, Fair Haven, Rumson, Spring Lake, Allenhurst Deal, etc. most of what concerns you does not really apply.

  239. Silera says:

    Irish genetics are like “the force”

  240. Doyle says:

    You are talking more about Ocean County. You can’t really commute to NYC from Ocean though.

    Oh yes you can, and they do… There are a lot of Toms River city commuters, I work with one, and did it myself for 6 months. It was awful and just temporary for me, but there was always a full bus of regulars that have been doing it for a looooooooong time.

    God bless them, it’s not my cup of tea.

  241. HEHEHE says:

    “”The securities industry “must be perceived as part of the solution, which will allow it to better defend against populist overreaction,””

    Expect a bunch of watered down regulation and moving of the deck chairs on the Titanic with a few dog and pony show whipping post hearings in between the end of which will leaving Joe Six Pack scratching his head and losing hsi wallet.

  242. NJGator says:

    Chifi 228 – I know a 2 year old named Shalom Gonzalez.

  243. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [228] chifi

    “Juan Epstein”

    I have a friend from my grad program named Jorge Rodriguez. Orthodox jew from South America.

  244. #241 – If you pick the right parts of Middletown Township, Holmdel, Colts Neck, West Long Branch, Fair Haven, Rumson, Spring Lake, Allenhurst Deal, etc. most of what concerns you does not really apply.

    I really have to disagree with you on this as that would be a big ‘if’. Most of those towns are traffic nightmares.

  245. Painhrtz says:

    Umm guys and gals there are bike shorts with spandy liners that look like regular shorts on the inside. Us MTBers wear them, all the support none of the franks and beans display. also some people just are not meant to wear spandex. When you are a whale on a road bike the spandies are not giving you an aerodynamic advantage your giant thighs negate it. Save the rest of the population from using eye bleach.

    When my wife and I were dating I taught her how to mtn bike. While she looked hot in the spandies I refused to ride with her while she was wearing them.

  246. Painhrtz says:

    Jeez let the ribbing begin on the last part of my comment I jsut read it.

  247. #243 – There are a lot of Toms River city commuters

    There are. That is far too long of a commute and I don’t know how they do it.

  248. Sean says:

    I remember back around 88-89 (and even 90) was a time when a fella can chill in front of his front steps or walk into a party wearing biker shorts, be complimented on his style and not get laughed at!

  249. Pat says:

    I came here and first read only your bike shorts post, pain.

    You need to be spanked with a spandie lash.

    By large people biking downhill past you at high speed.

    In spandex.

  250. Painhrtz says:

    Pat LoL struck a nerve maybe?

    At least they would be gravity assisted. Lord knows they can’t climb : )

  251. r says:

    My father in law used to commute from Jackson to Yonkers. Worst commute ever.

    Places to avoid driving on the weekends in Monmouth County.

    Rte. 36 Highlands bridge.
    Junction of 35 and 36 in Eatontown. (Formerly the Eatontown Circle of Death.)
    Red Bank
    Sea Bright
    West End Long Branch
    Little Silver Train Station Area.
    Monmouth Park Area

  252. Safeashouses says:

    Tosh and shore guy,

    I agree. The traffic in Monmouth and ocean county is horrific. I grew up in Monmouth county.

  253. chicagofinance says:

    Re: Monmouth County traffic
    ???????

  254. John says:

    That is great he can smuggle drugs, drink like a fish, walk the presidents dog and can build a mean oven.

    See you guys in around two weeks, going on vacation to support the economy!!

    Silera says:
    June 26, 2009 at 3:03 pm
    My son is 1/2 dominican, 1/4 irish, 1/8 portuguese and 1/8 german.

  255. veto that says:

    heard a funny joke:
    Dems dont want vat since its regressive and repubs dont want vat since its a blank check mass spending bill,
    but as soon as dems figure out vat is a blank check mass spending bill and repubs figure out that its regressive, it will pass with no problems.

  256. Sastry says:

    U.S. to ‘Quickly’ Sell Warrants When Banks Repay TARP

    What are the odds that GS gets a sweet deal discount on the price?

    S

  257. Shore Guy says:

    “If you pick the right parts”

    If one has to pick the right spots, it points to a general problem.

    As for O.C. commutes to NY, Toms River is now one of the shorter commutes. Folks are going up to NY from Lacey, Waretown, etc. They are insane, but they do it. Frankly, even the train from Point Pleas or even Spring Lake is dreadful.

  258. Shore Guy says:

    That huge object flying towards North America with the potential to wipe-out all life is just the USG’s debt.

  259. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [248] pain

    See my earlier post, re shorts.

    I did all my MTB riding in New Hampshire and Maine on a Gary Fisher Big Sur before it got stolen. Now I have a cheesy Specialized that I probably overpaid for.

    Westfield Police are having a bike auction tomorrow. I may see if I can get something that can shred single track without getting me laughed at.

  260. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [259] veto

    your joke is making the rounds in my tax department as we speak.

  261. JBJB says:

    I live in E. Monmouth, traffic is not bad at all. Sure, you get some slow downs in Red Bank on occasion or on the roads down to the beach in the summer, but its pretty light for the most part. However, I moved here from So. California so my expectations may be a bit different.

  262. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [252] pat

    “By large people biking downhill past you at high speed.

    In spandex.”

    Isn’t that punishment enough???

  263. Doyle says:

    Shore, the train is crazy. You’re over 2 hrs to Point guaranteed. At least the bus from Exit 98 is 1 hour 20 mins with no major issues, but that is a big “if”. A little fender bender and look out.

    I do like taking the train to Point / Bayhead with friends on Friday in the summer. A bag full of tall boys makes for a fun ride. The regular shore commuters hate us of course…

  264. moved to Vermont says:

    Eastern Monmouth was very nice. Traffic, “summer residents” and increasing property taxes are problems that will not go away. That being said, housing prices are holding up remarkably well given the economic prognosis. Monmouth has on average 50 or so new listings per day yet overall listings for sale does not increase – I don’t believe 50 or so new homes are sold on a daily basis. Sellers are in 2006/7 mode and have only moved down marginally. I would have thought prices would come down but sellers are stuborn and would rather hold on till 2006 comes back. Few bargains to be had. Sheriff sales are a joke – postponements are endless.

  265. jcer says:

    moved to vt, postponements seem like a constant in NJ sheriff sales. i have been trying to go to one in Hudson and the owners have been very successful at getting postponements on an investment property. These people haven’t paid their mortgage since before dec 2007.

    Train service to monmouth sucks, the ferry is better any day of the week. If Monmouth were more accessible the property values would be even higher because it is a nice place to live.

  266. jcer says:

    East monmouth is leagues better than west monmouth.

  267. moved to Vermont says:

    jcer, NJ sheriff sales are indeed skewing the market – I’ve been watching a house in default since July 2007 – I’m assuming the “homeowner” or should I say resident has not paid the mortgage since then – which is two years worth of monthly payments on $950K. You would think the bank would have an incentive to sell – unless they’re waiting for an upturn.

  268. Firestormik says:

    RE: GTG
    Since I have no idea how you guys look like, if you see a guy 6’1”, mid 30 with short blond hair, please shout me in.

  269. jcer says:

    The bank has it’s head somewhere you don’t want to see. I have been following these deadbeats for a while. You would think that they would want to get it through the system and get paid but it seems to be a long drawn out process. My dead beats are on their 2nd or 3rd lispendence, they cured the first few times. I think the banks are inundated and since many are held as securities they really don’t care too much about mitigating damages. I have to say watching the courts has given me new perspective to how bad it is, properties literally worth zero(run down in the ghetto) have 300k mortgages with owners who cannot nearly afford the payments. foreclosure is a waiting.

  270. jcer says:

    The sheriff sale situation is annoying how many times will I cut 100,000 plus certified checks. The bank must think I’m nuts.

  271. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    firestormik

    Easy, look for nebbish with dark hair, glasses, white dress shirt and brown pants. That’ll be me.

    The good looking one with the chest hair is grim.

  272. syncmaster says:

    Sastry #145,

    I’m 2nd generation Indian-American and your WASP comment is exactly the kind of trite garbage the 1st generation likes to say and believe.

  273. scribe says:

    I’m leaving for Penn Station.

    Wearing a navy blue t-shirt with a half moon and a fairy princess. Gray cotton sweatpants.

    See ya there!

  274. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [258] john

    “That is great he can smuggle drugs, drink like a fish, walk the presidents dog and can build a mean oven.”

    Wittily outrageous as usual. Be sure to take your old, tattered copies of Truly Tasteless Jokes I and II on vacation with you, so you can bone up for your return to the board. (I should see if I still have my copy of “Outrageously Offensive Jokes” somewhere; I’ll have to hide it to keep it away from Holder’s new PC police).

  275. Shore Guy says:

    “The sheriff sale situation is annoying how many times will I cut 100,000 plus certified checks. The bank must think I’m nuts”

    As Emily Latella used to say, “Nevermind!”

  276. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [276]

    Oooh. Brahmim smackdowns coming up.

    [277] scribe

    I remember you, so no worries. Won’t be there until later though, around 7:45-8

  277. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [279] shore

    As Emily Latella used to say: “b1tch”

  278. syncmaster says:

    Comrade #280,

    No smackdown, that line just reminded me a lot of things my dad and his buddies used to say in the 80s. It was BS then and it’s BS now.

  279. Shore Guy says:

    “As Emily Latella used to say: “b1tch'”

    Well, I just spit a mouthfull of coffee.

  280. Shore Guy says:

    “Endangered feces? Who would want to save such a thing?”

    If one has to ask, one is under 40, or more likely 45.

  281. Sastry says:

    Sync #278… My reference was with respect to “preferred immigration categories”. Not w.r.t. racial advantage.

    S

  282. Sastry says:

    And of course, in response to a parallel between why there is a disparity between “legal” and “illegal” immigration — and how the mexicans are scapegoated just like Italian/Irish, and Indian/Chinese are provided an easier treatment ala British/Germans etc.

    Of course, you are free to make up your mind about my intent…

    S

  283. Sastry says:

    And when I say something like “Indian/Mexican weddings are unlikely to happen”, it is a comment on the statistics, not advocating.

    S

  284. veto that says:

    Sastry, Nobody has suggested Indian/Chinese are provided an easier treatment.
    just stop defending. the explanations are making the initial statements worse.

  285. syncmaster says:

    What the heck is a preferred immigration category?

  286. syncmaster says:

    Indian/Chinese are provided an easier treatment

    Dude, the prevailing attitude towards people like you and me among white, black and latino people in this country is contempt. They mock the jobs we do, they mock the food we eat, the mock the way we smell and the way we drive, the way our women look, etc. There is no reason for you to feel privileged or fortunate. You, as a desi, are a TOOL, of the Amriki establishment.

  287. x-underwriter says:

    Painhrtz says:
    While she looked hot in the spandies I refused to ride with her while she was wearing them.

    c’mon share the love!!!!

  288. veto that says:

    sastry, listen to sync. it may or may not be that harsh but at least he’s tuned in.

    ok im outta here. going to brave the hail storm.

  289. syncmaster says:

    Really, what is with this freakin’ weather?

    Good thing (??) I’m still stuck in the office and will be here for hours.

  290. PGC says:

    “What the heck is a preferred immigration category?”

    If your are a physicist with a PhD (e.g. Albert Einstein) you are at the top of the pile.

    http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html#overview

    Heading to the GTG should be there a little later assuming I don’t get stopped at the Glen Ridge border for not meeting the Income and social level required to enter such a prestigious town.

  291. Silera says:

    Sync- I get the frustration but I don’t think the attitude is prevailing.

    Maybe because I grew up in the lower east side around so many different types of people, I’m wrong. Just as I married an irish guy from union city, my swiss friend married an indian doctor, my cousin married a chinese fashion designer, my greek orthodox jewish friend is currently dating a tattooed costa rican skater chick.

    When we throw a BBQ it looks like the United Nations summit.

  292. Silera says:

    Have fun at the GTG everyone!

  293. grim says:

    Anyone there yet? I’m running late.

  294. still_looking says:

    will be there, but we are running late, too….

    got home from a hellish day in the pit and need to regroup before we see the group :)

    sl (mr.&mrs.)

  295. Clotpoll says:

    Can’t do the GTG, but today I got to meet Toll’s former (20 years with the company, until the ax fell in 1/09) broker for NJ.

    He knows where the bodies are buried.

  296. nj escapee says:

    Guess builders like Toll were doing a lot of pump and dump all over NJ. Could never understand how / why all of a sudden places like Hillsborough could have so many million dollar homes.

  297. afe says:

    Shaq Finally Sells Miami Mansion
    Takes Loss on What He Paid in ’04

    http://realestate.aol.com/pictures/feature/celebrity-homes-for-sale?ncid=AOLCOMMre00DYNLsec0002&icid=main|main|dl4|link4|http%3A%2F%2Frealestate.aol.com%2Fpictures%2Ffeature%2Fcelebrity-homes-for-sale%3Fncid%3DAOLCOMMre00DYNLsec0002

  298. Firestormik says:

    I just got back home. It was pleasure to meet you guys, you are amazing!

  299. d2b says:

    Clot-
    I know some longtime residents in your area that loved Toll Bros. They made a fortune on land deals.

    John and Kate live in Berks county, not Montco.

  300. still_looking says:

    It was nice to meet you too, firestormik.

    Good to see everyone actually! :)

    sl

  301. still_looking says:

    Did anyone mention “Bank Failure Friday!! X3!

    Wilshire State Bank, Los Angeles, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Mirae Bank, Los Angeles Fri 9:52 PM 15 KB

    Sunwest Bank, Tustin, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of MetroPacific Bank, Irvine, California Fri 7:23 PM 14 KB

    Stearns Bank, National Association, St. Cloud, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Horizon Bank, Pine City, Minnesota Fri 7:23 PM 15 KB

    sl

  302. Firestormik says:

    Another “nice” bank failure Friday. Green shoots!
    Still,
    I know you’ll have to be up tonight :(, so I wish you to have a good day sleep tomorrow

  303. Clotpoll says:

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/sec-needs-your-feedback.html

    “…Please look well around you, and pray that you did not piss off any of the people close to you, who know every move you make, and every word you speak… sleep well tonight, because tomorrow your face just may make the proverbial front page of the Wall Street Journal…or Zero Hedge if the former is just a little conflicted.

    And a word of warning – please be prudent in contacting us. A major former investment bank, now bank holding company, has retaliated against an employee for daring to contact Zero Hedge. No more information will be disclosed at this point, out of respect for what will likely be a major whistleblower lawsuit. But please do not let that happen to you – after all the only way to disassemble the machine is from the inside.”

  304. Clotpoll says:

    Deflation Misinformation

    “There is so much misinformation in the above articles it’s hard to know where to begin. For starters, inflation and deflation are monetary measures not price measures. However, let’s talk about prices for a change.

    The idea that “Falling prices are a blow to households who borrow money because it makes it harder to repay debt” is preposterous. When prices fall, consumers have more money and they can pay off debts faster, provided of course they have a job. Falling prices reward the fiscally prudent, which is the way it should be.

    Falling home prices do encourage more mortgage walk-aways which is another matter. However, home prices must drop to the point of affordability before a recovery in housing can begin, so even falling home prices are desirable. The sooner home prices fall to the point of affordability, the better of everyone will be.

    In general, falling prices are good for consumer balance sheets. Imagine the problems we would have if prices were soaring with the unemployment rate approaching 10%.

    Profits are falling along with prices because demand is returning to some sense of normalcy that businesses did not plan for. In the meantime, cash strapped consumers spent recklessly for decades and need to save. They are. Proof is easy to find: US Savings Rate Hits 6.9%, Highest In 15 Years.

    This saving is not bad for business as Keynesian clowns believe. Savings provides capital for businesses to expand. For more on this as well as a rebuttal to the ridiculous concept callled “Paradox of Thrift”, please see Families Start Saving; Does This Aggravate The Nation’s Woes?.

    The only reason it appears that savings is bad is after decades of loose credit and monetary expansion by the Fed the world is awash in overcapacity. Now is payback time for misguided Fed polices and reckless consumer spending.

    This recession and a rising savings rate are both necessary ingredients to restore fiscal sanity. Deflation should not be feared; deflation should be embraced. What should be feared is the reckless expansion of consumer and corporate credit made possible by Fed policies under both Greenspan and Bernanke. Deflation is not the problem, it is the cure for those reckless policies.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/06/embrace-deflation-its-cure-not-problem.html

  305. lisoosh says:

    ” Silera says:
    June 26, 2009 at 7:13 pm

    When we throw a BBQ it looks like the United Nations summit.”

    Sounds like my kids school pictures.

    Hope everyone enjoyed the GTG. Sorry I missed yet another.

  306. chicagofinance says:

    307.Clotpoll says:
    June 27, 2009 at 6:52 am
    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com

    clot: Hate the site, but this new jaunt looks promising. I’m always willing to change my opinion. Hopefully there is as much bite as bark here…..

    I would draw an analogy to the National Enquirer. There is some tremendous investigative reporting that has occurred there…..albeit you need to dig through a mound manure for the nugget of gold……

  307. chicagofinance says:

    Sorry I missed the GTG. I was going to show up in a Cornell sweatshirt so I could be identified. I thought I could at least dispel some of my overt douchebaggery reputation.

    Can someone provide a roll call?

  308. nwnj says:

    jcer says:
    June 26, 2009 at 5:48 pm

    The bank has it’s head somewhere you don’t want to see. I have been following these deadbeats for a while. You would think that they would want to get it through the system and get paid but it seems to be a long drawn out process. My dead beats are on their 2nd or 3rd lispendence, they cured the first few times. I think the banks are inundated and since many are held as securities they really don’t care too much about mitigating damages. I have to say watching the courts has given me new perspective to how bad it is, properties literally worth zero(run down in the ghetto) have 300k mortgages with owners who cannot nearly afford the payments. foreclosure is a waiting.

    This thing has already gone Japanese. The feds pumped so much cash into these zombies – they can survive decades. It’s no longer in the bank’s interest to foreclose, so I don’t think the tidal wave in NJ will never arrive.

  309. chicagofinance says:

    312.nwnj says:
    June 27, 2009 at 9:57 am
    This thing has already gone Japanese. The feds pumped so much cash into these zombies – they can survive decades. It’s no longer in the bank’s interest to foreclose, so I don’t think the tidal wave in NJ will never arrive.

    nw: eventually the punch does get taken away….

  310. chicagofinance says:

    punch = punch bowl

  311. sas says:

    i hope you all had a dandy time at the GTG.
    I did not attend, but I am sure I was a topic of discussion at more than one table. ;)

    yesterday, while you all were at the GTG drinking the beer and eating nachos, we had the usual bank failure Friday.

    keep in mind, main street, it is always great PR to trickle back a small % of the profits in promoting the very thing you are destroying and doing it in a way that makes you money.

    Green shoots? you best think again and put away your gillies.

    SAS

  312. sas says:

    “FDIC: 104 Cease and Desist Orders through May”
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/fdic-104-cease-and-desist-orders.html

    you think FDIC will serve one to Citi, BoA, Goldman Sachs?

    like I’ve told you once before, tis not bank failure friday, but rather a takedown. Big banks get market share and cobble up smaller or community banks, while you… the nacho eating, beer drinking sap pay for it.

    Cheers:P

    SAS

  313. scribe says:

    311,

    Me, stu & gator, PGC, still_looking & her husband, firestormik, nom, sastry, gary, kettle ..

    and arriving fashionably and mysteriously late, grim :)

    Did I forget anyone?

    I can see why Glen Ridge is in vogue. Very easy commute from Penn Station – 30 minutes – with frequent trains.

  314. sas says:

    speaking of gillies….

    I’m thinking about taken a little trip across the way to Dublin and goto Gaiety Theatre.

    anyone been there before? how is the venue?

    I’d like to see Riverdance. One of my favorite shows.

    SAS

  315. nwnj says:

    #313

    It’s just my opinion, but I doubt it will happen.

    There was an article this week about people begging the bank to foreclose, so they can pick up and move on. Banks don’t have any interest in discovering a true price.

    The bankers and their politicians will do whatever is necessary to keep the paper value inflated.

    There will be a TARP 2.0. I’m not sure how they’ll spin it this time — it was suppose to stimilate new spending last time — but it will pass.

    A combination of write downs, refis and various delays will keep the foreclosures from arriving en masse.

  316. grim says:

    I can see why Glen Ridge is in vogue. Very easy commute from Penn Station – 30 minutes – with frequent trains.

    Driving (or biking/running) the length of Ridgewood Ave from Orange (south end) to Brookdale Park (north end) is a suggested route for those who enjoy house porn.

  317. Sean says:

    The energy Bill barely passed the house.
    219-212, and the Senate may vote soon too.

    Nice read on who wins and who loses.

    http://www.newgeography.com/content/00792-cap-and-trade-who-wins-who-loses

  318. PGC says:

    Thanks to all who came last night. I had a great time although I had to leave early.

    SAS the only mention I heard of you was a discussion on who will never show at a GTG (Bi,we are all still waiting). Although I wondered if you were doing a Maxwell Smart in the bushes.

    The Gaiety is more historic venue than world class venue. It is old, small and cramped, but that’s just my opinion from 20 years ago.

    Try not to blow anything up.

  319. Stu says:

    ChiFi:

    Don’t worry about having missed the GTG. I told everyone new that I was you.

  320. Stu says:

    In other news. Gator and I are boarding the NCL Dawn for Bermuda tomorrow. The battle between renting a place in LBI vs. the cruise was won when the cruise line offered me an additional 17% off since I gambles in their casino last time. I’m not complaining. Rum Swizzles will be had on all of your behalfs.

    Catch ya all online next Sunday and don’t be so tough on Sastry. He’s actually a good guy!

    And Gary, no more GTG’s unless you find a job. I’m sick of paying for your lazy @ss.

  321. willwork4beer says:

    RE advertisement in the local weekly rag (Hunterdon Observer) touts 8 Meadow Run Road, Holland Twp., as “Under Contract!!” and goes on to say:

    SELLERS: You CAN sell your home in this market. When the markets get tough…the tough get marketing! Don’t just list your house, SELL IT! Get full exposure for your listing in TWO COUNTIES!

    Do you suppose there’s a reason why she left this part out?

    SP: $635K (7/03)
    LP: $585K

    Can someone with GSMLS access find the 2009 sale price?
    Thanks in advance.

  322. willwork4beer says:

    Re #325

    I should have mentioned that I assume its sold since its not on the agent’s site anymore…

  323. grim says:

    Currently UC, won’t know until it closes. Anticipated closing date is 8/28.

  324. willwork4beer says:

    Thanks Grim.

  325. yome says:

    # 324 Stu
    A stupid question but here we go;Do you konow if a expired passport is still good to leave the US?

  326. chicagofinance says:

    323.Stu says:
    June 27, 2009 at 11:54 am
    ChiFi: Don’t worry about having missed the GTG. I told everyone new that I was you.

    Oh shite!

  327. Shore Guy says:

    As I understand it, an expired passport is always good for proving citizenship but one is not supposed (allowed?) to travel with one that is set to expire within 6 months of starting travel.

  328. yome says:

    Thanks Shore

  329. Shore Guy says:

    Stu/Gator,

    Enjoy the Dawn, she is a nice ship. Until we discovered the ones with the private courtyard (e.g the Pearl) she was aour favorite.

    Please let me know how you enjoy the trip as we have considered a Bermuda cruise before but have not made time for it.

  330. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    After a few tax increases Sastry will be to the right of me, lol.

  331. safeashouses says:

    #329 yome,

    To travel, you need a passport that doesn’t expire for at least 6 months.

    You used to be able to get a passport the same day. My wife got one same day in Philly in 2004, don’t know if you still can do that.

  332. zieba says:

    Safe,

    Same day passports are possible. I stopped by a seedy suite in Herald Square before 8AM, plunked down $375 and had my passport by 4PM same day.

  333. gary says:

    And once again, I was voted best-looking individual at the latest get-together. No really… thank you… really… I mean it… you’re all too kind… really! ;)

  334. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary you on your meds again?

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