Mon 13 Jul 2009
From the Courier Post:
A cocoa-processing plant in Glassboro and a team of money managers for the wealthy are leaving South Jersey, taking more than 100 jobs to Pennsylvania.
ADM Cocoa, which turns cocoa beans into cocoa powder, butter and chocolate for the snack food and cereal industries, will close its Glassboro plant by Oct. 31. Work will be transferred to a new facility in Hazleton, Pa.
“The company is in negotiations with United Food and Commercial Workers Local 152 regarding the effects of the closing,” said company spokesman Roman Blahoski from headquarters in Decatur, Ill.
…
Penn Capital Management, which has been in Cherry Hill since 1987, moved last Monday from LibertyView on Haddonfield Road to the Philadelphia Navy Yard, a 1,200-acre development area that is home to Tasty Baking Co. and about 75 firms.Philadelphia made Penn and its 60 workers an offer of tax incentives they couldn’t refuse, said senior managing partner Christian Noyes.
“We aggressively pursued opportunities in Jersey, but were unable to work anything out. We would have strongly considered staying put if the state had offered us anything close to Pennsylvania. We regretted leaving,” said Noyes, of Moorestown.
At the same time, Noyes said his company is happy in a new building with dramatic waterfront views.
From CNBC:
Crisis Spurs People to Work for Free
With U.S. unemployment at a 20-year high, some Americans are working for free while looking for a job, but experts are split over whether it is a sign of dedication or desperation.
Unpaid job seekers can keep their resumes fresh by boosting their experience and learning new skills, experts say, but others warn businesses may take advantage of the jobless and that it is illegal for commercial companies not to pay workers.
…
“In some cases companies might be getting the better end of it (by having unpaid workers),” she said. “But it’s nice to have something occupy yourself with and when speaking to prospective employers it’s nice to say ‘I haven’t just been sitting around all day, I’ve actually been doing something.”‘
It’s not only the unemployed taking on free work. Some employed people are being asked by bosses to go without pay.
Jobs leaving? That can mean only one thing - time to raise taxes.
MOORESTOWN — Township council will vote tonight on a budget that would raise municipal taxes $392 a year for the average homeowner.
http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090713/NEWS01/907130319
And that’s just the municipality. Wait until the county and school board get into the act.
CIT too big to fail. “Where’s my f&ckin’ bailout?” asks CIT spokesman Curt Ritter.
From Bloomberg:
CIT Group Says Its Failure Risks Demise of Customers
CIT Group Inc., the century-old lender that hasn’t been able to persuade the government to back its debt sales, says its demise would put 760 manufacturing clients at risk of failure and “precipitate a crisis” for as many as 300,000 retailers.
A collapse would ripple across the “small and medium-sized businesses who rely on CIT to operate — to pay their vendors, ship goods to their customers and make their payroll,” the New York-based lender said in internal documents obtained by Bloomberg News that make the case for its importance to the U.S. economy. CIT spokesman Curt Ritter declined to comment on the documents.
CIT executives spoke with regulators during the past two days, according to a person familiar with the talks, after its bonds and shares tumbled on concern that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. won’t allow the lender into its bond-guarantee program created last year to unfreeze debt markets. CIT may default as soon as April, when a $2.1 billion credit line matures, according to Fitch Ratings.
“A CIT default would create liquidity issues for the corporate sector,” Ed Grebeck, chief executive officer of debt consulting firm Tempus Advisors in Stamford, Connecticut. “If CIT isn’t doing trade finance and lending, its customers will look to other banks for replacement and from what I’ve seen, they aren’t willing to step up.”
Murder as a a way to get buzz for a development. What have we become?
“Yet he had to admit the killings accomplished what Blatstein and his public-relations efforts couldn’t: front-page, top-of-the-broadcast news coverage of his upscale development.”
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/real_estate/20090712_Grisly_event_puts_development_on_the_map.html
And that condo auction in Philly that was supposed to be a game changer…not so much.
“Murano auction fails to spark condo market”
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/50551332.html
From the Star Ledger:
Transit village units ready for sale in Morristown
In a bleak economy, luxury has gone on sale in Morristown.
About one-third of the 217 apartments in the town’s brand-new transit village are now being marketed to commuters looking for the good life.
…
As with most real estate, the key amenity is its location: It sits right next to the train station, which has direct service to Manhattan.
Realtors say these apartments will likely fill up despite a recent softening of the local rental market.
“Built with a certain amount of amenities, people will pay it,” said Peter Di Eduardo, a ReMax Realtor and vice chairman of the now-defunct Morristown Redevelopment Committee. “It seems like they’re pricing it right.”
…
“People want to buy into a complete lifestyle where they have everything they need,” said Debra Tantleff, vice president of development at Roseland Property Co.
Last week, they began conducting hard-hat tours for prospective renters in the five-story building at Morris Street and Lafayette Avenue. By next month, 65 apartments will be ready to rent out, Tantleff said.
One-bedroom apartments, which average about 740 square feet, start at $1,700 a month, while two-bedroom units of about 1,080 square feet start at $2,300, Tantleff said.
kettle,
You’ve got mail
bi says:
July 12, 2009 at 10:34 pm
97#, have you figure it out how to get 0.02% yet?
Why are you talking about the number of predictions you’ve had right in the last three years?
“Obama Team Sees Jobs Growth in Health, Environment”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31886806
Translation: Obama Team Sees Jobs Growth in Government and people who have to answer to government.
but i thought New York was immune?
The Billyburg Bust
A working-class neighborhood became a bohemian theme park, which in turn became a fantasyland for luxury-condo developers. Now, littered with half-built shells of a vanished boom, Williamsburg is looking like something else entirely: Miami.
http://nymag.com/realestate/features/57904/
grim (3)-
Boo fcuking hoo. CIT is a lowlife loansharking operation.
Better for a small biz to borrow from Vinnie the Mook down the corner.
Save the robots?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/japans-robots-join-ranks-of-unemployed.html
BTW,
Cruising down Jackson St near the projects in Hoboken. Big banner on a new condo building re an upcoming conso auction. Hoboken is hopping eh Frank?
From Panzer:
Undermining the Home Ownership Imperative
Although modest rebounds or moderation in the pace of decline in some housing statistics (e.g., three straight gains in monthly housing starts, existing home sales up for two months in a row, pending home sales rising for four consecutive months) has fooled convinced some observers that we’ve hit bottom in the housing market, plenty of other data suggests such optimism is misguided, to put it mildly.
Aside from the fact that inventories remain bloated and house prices relative to incomes and rents are still above historical norms (even with the declines we’ve seen already), harsh economic realities are exerting relentless downward pressure on the demand side of the equation, shrinking the pool of potential buyers and undermining the imperative that drove qualified, marginal, and unqualified prospects to make major sacrifices in their lives so they could become card-carrying members of “the ownership society.”
Below are three recent reports that suggest to me, at least, that the last thing many Americans are going to be thinking about in the immediate years ahead is the notion of taking on a mortgage and all the other obligations (e.g., taxes) and risks associated with owning a home (hat tip to reader J.C. for the first two articles):
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/07/undermining-the-home-ownership.html
Panzner 2, even better:
What They Really Think
Those who’ve spent enough time on Wall Street know there is often a wide gulf between what insiders admit to publicly and what they say to a limited circle of friends, colleagues, and acquaintances (some of whom may also be trusted clients or advisors).
Given that the financial industry is a gigantic selling machine that generally does best when clients are optimistic and have their buying boots on, this conflict means it is in outsiders’ interest to figure out if the party line matches the unofficial scuttlebutt.
Of course, that is not always easy. However, in an age where all sorts of knowledge has value, and where the old and new media are aggressively competing with each other for readers’ attentions, nonpublic insights and information — I’m not talking about the illegal kind, by the way — increasingly leak out, benefitting the greater good.
As an example, I refer you to a recent post at FT Alphaville, “Doomsville,” which details the less-than-optimistic outlook of a senior Wall Street insider that was probably not meant for dissemination to the great unwashed.
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/07/what-they-really-think.html
bi (14)-
I’m with you on the Euro/USD parity.
However, please describe for us the geopolitical and financial markets environment in which this parity will occur.
Please also describe for us which E European currencies will collapse first and construct a scenario describing the subsequent cascading collapses of W European monetary systems.
Extra credit will be given for using the term “green shoots” in at least three European languages.
You may begin now.
this week the market will make ahypothesis test on “green shoots” v.s. “yellow weed” with PPI, CPI numbers and earnings from INTC, CSX, JPM and etc. for the rest of us, it would be an interesting ride.
“Relocation means loss of jobs”
Keep taxes high and people away from NJ.
NJ Election news.
Corzine was going to have his rally with Obama on July 16th at Rutgers University in a public place Voorhees Mall Hamilton & George Streets but that was canceled because several thousand people where going to show up not to support Corzine but to protest.
So Corzine moved it to the PNC Holmdel NJ, and issued limited tickets meaning very few protestors will get in. Don’t want to make Obama look bad with protestors now do we?
Remind me why I leave this site for weeks at a time?
See ya.
#2 DL:That can mean only one thing - time to raise taxes.
It is what we do best
BC Bob,
Don’t worry. The people from the institution will find and reclaim bi-tard soon enough.
#21 BC Bob: Remind me why I leave this site for weeks at a time?
bi, frank?
Gotta admit it: Frank and bi and much more entertaining than, say, Kudlow and Kneale.
They are also- fortunately- two people of exponentially lesser influence, so you can laugh at them without having to suspend the thought that hundreds of thousands of people actually pay any attention to what they say.
I will know this recession is over when a bull can show up here and create some semblance of a reasonable argument…instead of the risible idiocy we get from bi and Frank.
CIT is an interesting case. Sheila Blair “Witch Project” wants to beat them like a red headed stepchild to show bail out nation is over. She want to elimiante moral hazzard. However, CIT has a tangible book value of 10 bucks a share even though it trades for a buck and change. The Fed themselves are creating a run on the bank in terms of credit line drawdowns by leaving them in limbo to issue FDIC bonds, the fed by giving them tarp money and saying they can be a bank and they are adequately capitalized a few months ago further cememted that theory. CIT is not systemically important. However, small business owners certainly pay a lot of tax dollars and vote. The will get crushed. From a FDIC point of view not not important. However, I think the best solution is to crucify CIT but let them survivie. That way one million businesses kep their lines of credit and financing alive. But the approach will be so horrible to the stockholders and employees no one will want to go the govt bailout route again.
For the foreseeable future (rest of my life anyway) buying a house will be like buying a car; you pay down a loan on a depreciating asset until its time to sell. Maybe Edmunds can develop a Blue Book model for houses.
#13,
What kind of auction is it?? Foreclosure??
“Geithner to Reassure Gulf Allies on Dollar Assets”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31887028
Euro dollar parity? Does anyone smell fear?
#21 BC Bob: Ah yeah never mind, I missed bi’s zillow discussion/delusion yesterday.
John (25)-
Sorta like the junkie taking one last hit before rehab, huh?
Sorry, no sale. Once the high has passed, the junkie will continue to search for more drugs.
“But the approach will be so horrible to the stockholders and employees no one will want to go the govt bailout route again.”
Meredith Whitney just got asked her opinion of NYC real estate.
Her response?
“I’m a renter.”
John - CIT has a bunch of Dunkin Donuts that have filed for Chap 11 and Eddie Bauer Stores in that book of theirs, heck even the Penn Station Dunkin’ Donuts is closing.
The coffee bubble is over, the Dunkin Dounuts I go to every morning never has a line when it used to be 20 people deep at 7am and it now seems the folks from India who work there are worried since the tip jar is nearly empty and they have no money to send home.
Eddie Bauer the store where you can return any piece of clothing a decade after it went out of style, seems like flannel and dad jeans went out with the Bush administration.
#32 sean: Just curious, what are Dad jeans?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/realestate/12njzo.html?ref=realestate
Home swapping? I don’t think we’re near the bottom yet. “You can’t sell, I can’t sell, let’s trade?”
We will be told, undoubtedly, that is is a sure sign of a robust market…
CIT gave original financing of dunkin donuts, that has nothing to do with their problems today. Sean and Clot, for a brief while they were one of my many clients. Certain things like car assemble lines, ships, Cat Scan Machines, LC, etc. they do, Those leasing and manufacturing loans are dicey things to unwind. For example a car supplier built the assembly line for the Ford Explorer adn leased it to Ford via CIT financing. CIT has right to reposses assembly line. I saw hundreds of loan where some type of manufacturing equipement was involved that if removed would shut down whol operation. Normally, you shut a bank and move. Well Blair does not have right to shut down CIT as they have no depositor assets, she has two choices bankrupt them or throw up some coin. Either one she is getting spanked in the media.
Bottom line, she should have said no to them a few months ago. She let CIT rent the limo, buy the tux and pay for the prom tickets and now she won’t put out.
re #33 - 3b - if you walk into Eddie Bauer and come out looking like like George Costanza. Usually Straight leg jeans with white sneakers.
damn, you know NJ is in bad shape when businesses jump across the Delaware to the tax heavy philadelphia.
Unisys sees swing to pre-tax profit
WHOA - Green Shoots from a Dead Plant!
Shiller is extremely credible in my opinion and this last sentance (below) scares the hell out of me.
We Need More Stimulus and More Government Borrowing, Shiller Says
Shiller’s comments stemmed from a conversation about whether there’s a “bubble” in the Treasury market, which got us talking about the corresponding fears of inflation and the U.S. government’s inability to fund its deficits.
There is “some legitimacy” to those concerns, says Shiller. “But I’m not stressing them now. It’s really important the stimulus package go ahead and the government continues to borrow.”
…the man who also wrote The Subprime Solution and helped create the S&P Case-Shiller Index believes another bubble in housing may emerge, as we’ll discuss in a forthcoming segment.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/278923/We-Need-More-Stimulus-and-More-Government-Borrowing-Shiller-Says?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,TBT,TLT,GLD&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
@4 DL,
I had lunch there the day the shootings happen. Ironically, the conversation was how safe and well secured the complex seemed to be. I suppose $100,000 cash and bad drug deal would put anyplace upside down.
clot 12,
just wait until they riot!!!
From the LA Times, via Newsday:
From the Los Angeles Times
Many underwater homeowners are deliberately walking away from mortgages
A study finds that 26 percent of defaults nationwide are calculated economic decisions to bail out of loans by borrowers who could afford to make the monthly payments
WASHINGTON - Would you, under any circumstances, default on your home mortgage, even if you could afford to make the monthly payments?
That’s a trickier question than you might assume, according to new research from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business and Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.
The study found that 26 percent of the record numbers of home mortgage defaults across the country are “strategic” — that is, calculated economic decisions to bail out of loans by owners who actually have the money to make the payments but can’t handle the negative equity they’re carrying caused by local property value declines.
Nationwide, according to data from Zillow.com, 22 percent of all homeowners were underwater, with mortgage debts that exceeded their home values, in the first quarter of 2009.
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzmort0713,0,3580115.story
#36 sean: Got it.
[37] 2ndary
Agreed, though the Navy Yard is a KOZ I think, or something similar. There are heavy tax incentives for relocating there. Same with Lehigh Valley and areas like Hazelton.
But we have been seeing it all along, and as I just said last week, Rendell is eating Corzine’s lunch.
If NJ can’t play the state tax incentive game, we will continue to see poaching by NY, CT, DE and PA. They will pick the NJ corpse clean because it is in their best interests to do so, political affiliations notwithstanding.
Should make for interesting (read: acrimonious) relations in those areas where cross-border cooperation is needed, like bridge authorities and interstate law and tax enforcement.
JOhn - a relative of mine worked for Dunkin helping the franchises open, CIT was the preferred lender for the franchises, a massive expansion program to open 10,000 new stores with CIT providing billions in new financing direct to franchisees to open their doors over the last few years.
They are getting burned now, as far as the manufacturers, it is a shame they have been calling for a bailout for quite some time now. If we lose 10-20% of our manufacturing capacity then we are screwed as a country.
Then again the robots in Japan are now getting laid off, their industrial output and exports are way way off as well.
Nom-
I don’t think that there will be a lack of cooperation when it comes to bridges.
Bridge tolls are a license to steal. Politicians will do nothing to derail that gravy train.
I sound like SAS…
I think DOJ is starting to feel a blink coming on. . . .
“A U.S. judge agreed Monday to delay the start of a trial in which U.S. tax authorities hoped to force UBS AG to reveal the identities of thousands of Americans suspected of using the bank to evade taxes.
The postponement was requested in a joint motion from UBS and the U.S. Justice Department on Sunday, as the clock ticked down to Monday’s scheduled start of the much-anticipated trial in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida in Miami. . . .”
Actually, both sides are probably stifling a blink as both will benefit from some form of deal, and if past is prologue, the Swiss are likely trying to work around their laws so as to be able to release some data, which will allow all to settle the case and save face.
Going forward, look for a huge influx of companies and other entities setting up front companies in places like Ireland, which will simply be a money conduit between the U.S. and Switzerland and the other countries on the OECD gray list. Not so much a firewall as a chain-link fence, but a barrier nonetheless.
Holmdel, NJ is richest town in NJ, why are we always talking about Alpine?
[46] d2b
I suppose, but for reasons I can’t get into, there is already a marked degree of foot-dragging in these authority projects. I don’t see it getting better.
My productivity will fall 20% with no dunkin donuts
I like how they tagged this article as “Business, Crime, Politics”
“State Senator Refuses to Fix His Chinese Drywall-Plagued Rental Home”
There are lots of stories about people living in homes with Chinese drywall and being unsure who to blame. The developers blame the suppliers, who blame the Chinese manufacturers who built the defective wall board. But Christine Miller, she knows exactly who the bad guy is.
It’s her landlord: State Sen. Dennis Jones.
Christine and husband Joe Miller entered into a lease-to-own deal with Jones a year ago for a four-bedroom, three-bath home in Cape Coral. They found out in December that the new home has Chinese drywall, which has caused the electrical system in the house to corrode so badly that half of the home lost power. They also blame constant headaches, nosebleeds, and other health problems on the sulfur-emitting drywall.
When they reported it to Jones in February, the Republican from Treasure Island said tough luck. Which is essentially what he said to me when I asked him about the Millers.
“If the place is so bad, why don’t they just move out?” said Jones, a chiropractor.
I suggested to him that the ethical thing to do is to make sure the place you’re renting to somebody is safe, so he said: “It’s a brand new home. I’m not fixing anything.”
That’s when I suggested that he seemed a bit cold about the whole thing. I mentioned that the Millers have three children living at the home. “What I want to know,” he said, “is why they want to stay in the house if it’s making them sick.”
[snip]
It’s a claim he repeated to me, saying its builder hasn’t reported other problems. But Christine says she’s got proof — toxicology reports from an inspection in February. Jones wouldn’t consider that. In response, he said to me: “I didn’t do good background checks on them. That’s the problem.”
http://blogs.browardpalmbeach.com/juice/2009/07/state_senator_dennis_jones_florida.php
See what happens when you send a women to do a man’s job. Thank you Timmy!
Geithner Says U.S. Has Authority to Address CIT (July 13 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. government has the authority and the ability to address the crisis at CIT Group Inc.
“I’m actually pretty confident in that context we have the authority and the ability to make sensible choices,” he told reporters in London at a press conference.
Geithner declined to comment on measures the government might take, such as providing a debt backstop or additional capital from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Sen. Jones obviously isn’t planning on running for re-election.
He’s got the public relations finesse of the Grinch.
Here is where timmy and sheila went wrong. Now 7 months later, they either admit this was a mistake or toss them some change.
Dec 23, 2008, 5:28 p.m. EST
American Express, CIT to receive TARP money
Companies get preliminary OK for more than $5 billion of public cash
[yesterday] yikes says:
“clot, since the end is nigh, i scooped one of these at costco
http://roadmasterusa.com/index.php?page=ultimate-labs
only $30!
i imagine Nom would probably want to grab at least a dozen for the nom-pound”
The flashlight or the seat cushions???
I am trying to think why a dozen high power rechargeable flashlights would be useful. Just need one or two for deer-jacking (yes, illegal as heck, but when one is in survival mode . . .)
And I suppose a few roadmasters are useful for perimeter patrols. But night vision goggles and laser sights would be more useful.
Or will I need a few in the watchtowers overlooking the Nompound??? (tinyurl picture of ‘Nam era watchtower would be funny right about now. Except for SAS. Too many bad memories).
http://www.seniorlendingnetwork.com/
Don’t know if this was posted earlier but it seems like Senior Lending Network is finished. Robert Wagner needs a new job promoting fraudualent products to seniors.
Reverse Morgage is predatory lending on it’s best day.
#56
I think the KGB is on to us now too.
Bye Bye Jersey jobs because 100 jobs are being moved to PA?
C’mon now.
Dolphin flogger- attach an article where nj has taken jobs from PA recently. Thanks,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKpKQJ6RaDag
Impeach Sheila Blair!!!
stan #78,
Routes I-78 and I-80 during the morning rush. Which direction do most of the commuters travel? That tells you who’s winning right there.
Re: Holmdel
O’bama is making a visit to Holmdel this Thursday to support his pal Corzine.
It will be interesting to see how the Limosine Liberals react to this duo…..these are the very people the Dimmycrats want to fund all their programs.
Let’s see if these high dollar earners want to share the wealth.
The Obama/Corzine thing is at the PNC Arts Center I beleive. Can’ be too many Corzine supporters in Holmdel, the location is likely a coincidence.
[61] dolphin,
That misses the point. In fact, it is substantial proof that PA is taking revenues away from NJ. The people living in PA and commuting to jobs in NJ don’t pay NJ taxes, they pay PA taxes.
[59] stan,
Some ground rules are in order since jobs relocate back and forth with some regularity. Nor are all such moves tax-motivated—a basic rule is not to let the tax tail wag the dog. Though it is difficult to de-select tax policy when the move is based on overall cost of doing business.
The measure ought to be when a company moves at least an entire operating unit from NJ to PA, or vice versa.
[62] Fiddy,
Wonder if the TEA party groups and local republicans will mount some counter-protests. That will make for good sound bites on the evening news!
“Routes I-78 and I-80 during the morning rush. Which direction do most of the commuters travel”
All this likely shows is that folks who used to live in NJ have abandoned NJ living (and property tax paying) for living in PA. I seriously doubt that it reflects a huge demand from natives from PA commuting into NJ.
Curses! Foiled again by Nom. I am just not quick enough on the handheld keyboard.
The place will be crawling with State Troopers and Secret Service. I’m not going near the Arts Center on Thursday.
If you don’t have a “Hope & Change” bumper-sticker on your car….the SS or the Triangle Gang will pull you over & wrestle you to the ground.
Good luck to Obama, polishing that turd Corzine is going to be tough. Hopefully the ghetto and state workers stay home on election day because then Corzine has a rats chance in hell of winning.
re: #62 # 65- They shut down the Parkway when Al Gore was running in 2000 and made a visit to the PNC.
Since the Teachers are off expect a big NJEA contingent and the CWA union workers as well, stuffing the seats at this political rally for Corzine, rally starts at 4PM too sucks for commuters.
They won’t allow any protesters near the PNC, it will be jack booted state police standing on people’s necks if any protesters show up, can’t make Obama look bad, just like the Republicans did when Bush would speak.
Jersey loses over and over again, the stupid pols in trenton think a slightly better location means they have a lock on businesses and can tax them into submission. Cody, Corzine, etc all believe this is true.
John (35)-
You can’t polish a turd. You also can’t repossess one.
“For example a car supplier built the assembly line for the Ford Explorer and leased it to Ford via CIT financing. CIT has right to reposses assembly line.”
Shut the Parkway? No big deal. We have 36 to 35 or Ocean Avenue. We have Rt.s 9, 34, and 71.
What kind of headachs could one possibly see with the USSS closing the Parkway or any other road providing a gun or portable-misse shot on Marine One?
For anyone commuting from south of Aberdeen, as an alternative to work that day, might I suggest a beach day?
John (50)-
A sugar high is not actually high energy.
“My productivity will fall 20% with no dunkin donuts”
“stupid pols in trenton think a slightly better location means they have a lock on businesses and can tax them into submission.”
C’mon. Look at the great job they did with respect to Fort Monmouth.
Yeah, because people want to drive hours to their jobs in Hoboken ::rolleyes::
They live in PA because the market has set their intrinsic worth at a level that does not allow them to live in New Jersey.
They work in NJ because there is no work in PA :-)
Yea, but this is still 50/50. Buying these bonds today at 30 cents on a dollar is all about will Timmy and Sheila link. Plus they actually have very good internal controls, when they got spun off from Tyco they spent a ton of money over three years to re-write all procedures, put controls in place and test the controls. They also did SOX and as a bankholding company just did FIDICIA. The Feds have the annual report from 2008 and 1st and 2Q numbers to decide what to do. The weird thing is made up you mind, you have real numbers unlike Fannie, Freddie, SLM, GM or GMAC. I guess since the next earnings call by CIT is 7-23 I guess the Feds thing they have ten days. CIT has no big bonds maturing for a month or two so it is not a today problem but if the FDIC causes a run on the bank with people drawing down credit lines that is a huge issue. You don’t want to be associated with causing CIT to go under, you have to let them go under on their own which is what they should have done in December. This is a real litmus test, because the Fed has to bite off their nose to spite their face. That tarp cash they gave them in December is buy buy as they did it in pref shares and CIT has a boat load of senior secured bonds that get paid first.
Pol Clot says:
July 13, 2009 at 11:06 am
John (35)-
You can’t polish a turd. You also can’t repossess one.
“For example a car supplier built the assembly line for the Ford Explorer and leased it to Ford via CIT financing. CIT has right to reposses assembly line.”
B.O. has an economy that is not cooperating, an exploding debt, and policy opposition developing in congress, even among increasing numbers of Democrats, and casualties are mounting in Afghanistan.
Rahm, et. al, must be thrilled that the Cheney issue is surfacing. In trying times, there is nothing like a distraction. Time to make an example of the unliked by nearly everyone Dick Cheney.
Dick, meet bus, you country needs you to serve one more time — this time as guilty scapegoat. Tough time to be a cardiac patient.
So where were the spiders while the fly tried to break our balls
Just the beer light to guide us,
So we bitched about his fans and should we crush his sweet hands ?
My ode to Sheila. Used a British band since Timmy is in England.
376 dolphinbeater:They live in PA because the market has set their intrinsic worth at a level that does not allow them to live in New Jersey.
That is a bunch of crap, and some of the same kind of thinking that led the state to the mess that it is in.
We pay more and are taxed more, because we are worth more? Because we are special? Good luck with that,and keep believing it. I am sure you will be able to find hundreds of thosuands of people who will be able to pay 20k a year in property taxes, on a modest house in any old town NJ, because we are special,a nd we should be honored to pay more.
3b, dolphin
nj jobs????
Nj has 2 large high paying industries providing its income base, finance and Pharma (and formerly telecom). Pharma is well out the door and have a number of plans for consolidation and relocation in the works. The finance industry is a shrinking field and rapidly moving jobs elsewhere as well. Per state stats, that ;eaves 2 major employment fields in NJ, Government jobs, and service jobs.
How exactly do you support 12K/yr property taxes, 300K median priced homes, and a runaway pension obligation on government jobs ( which are parasitic to the economy) and low paying / seasonal service jobs?
Some of that pharma is moving to PA. At least they are not seeing an exodus of major employers.
I looked at that cyber homes web site. Does anyone know where they are gathering that information from? Also the monthly changes (drops) in prices appear are very large.
[70] sean
Bridges over the parkway will be ideal protest platforms, and video of the local g-estapo kicking protesters off the bridges, or off the sides of the parkway will be priceles.
RE: “Which direction do most of the commuters travel?”
Through NJ into NY?
[80] 3b
dolphin has an agenda, and this is apparent in work I see from policy groups that have a similar agenda. They debunk the idea that there is such a thing as tax migration, and urge states not to engage in tax competition with their fellow states.
IMHO, they are deniers, but useful in that they insure that state tax regime disparities exist and stay pronounced; this insures clear winners and clear losers, which is necessary for my line of work.
#81 kettle: I have been in my melllow mood for soem months now. But really, it is just amazing to me that we still have people like dolphin making stupide moronic comments liek that.
Are there so many people that are that clueless,(yes) that dumb,(yes) that they just do not get it (you answered your own question). I mean it is just astounding to me. OK rant off back to mellowness, you cannot win. Too many morons, not enough people to simply think things through. (you knew that already).
[84] qwerty
That is hard to guage, and IMHO, folks living in PA and commuting to NYC regularly by car must have a pretty compelling reason since there is little advantage to be gained by doing that.
As I pointed out to dolphin, those working in NJ can realize tax savings by living in PA. It does not apply to those working in NY.
Thus, I suspect folks commuting from Easton are going to jobs in NJ, not NY, as that commute would be insane and offer no tax benefit.
Check this out
Freddie Buys in its Sub Debt – Heinous!
After the bell on Friday (ahem) Freddie Mac announced that it would buy in $4.4 billion of its Sub Debt. This deal is another coup for our pals at Goldman Sachs who got the Lead Manager slot on the deal. No doubt but that GS has a ton of these bonds in portfolio. Some details:
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2009/07/freddie-buys-in-its-sub-debt-heinous.html
what is wrong with buying sub debt? In tthe past few weeks, lots of companies have gone that route. I own a 5% coupon bond due next year from a TARP firm. Thing had a tender offer this week at par. They got to issue FDIC bnds at 2.5% so 5% is double to them. Best to issue some 2.% bonds and pay off 5%. Funny thing without tarp and FDIC bonds that same place would be issuing subs at 10%.
john,
read the article, the deal stinks and would appear to be another transfer of taxpayer $ to GS while helping Fannie stay afloat ( i thought they were well capitalized….)
i like how the french play hardball
French workers threaten to blow up factory
Workers at collapsed French car parts maker New Fabris threatened on Sunday to blow up their factory if they did not receive payouts by July 31 from auto groups Renault and Peugeot to compensate for their lost jobs. New Fabris was declared in liquidation in April, so the workers stand to get no redundancy money, although they are entitled to draw state unemployment benefit.
They want Renault SA and PSA Peugeot Citroen to pay 30,000 euros ($41,800) for each of the 336 staff at the factory, or some 10 million euros in total, in return for its remaining stocks of equipment and machinery. “The bottles of gas have already been placed at various parts of the factory and are connected with each other,” CGT trades union official Guy Eyermann told France Info radio. “If Renault and PSA refuse to give us that money it could blow up before the end of the month,” he added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSLC42677020090712
“Bridges over the parkway will be ideal protest platforms”
Nom,
If B.O. travels by car at all, ALL the overpasses and underpasses as well as the road in the opposite direction (parkway, Turnpike, it does not matter the size) will be closed to all traffic and people will not be allowed to staand over or under his travel route.
It is amazing to observe up close the process for getting a president from an airport (in this case I assume McGuire) to a speaking location (I assume they will come in by air, as ground from McGuire presents too many security issues). If they fly into Newark and drive down, God save the commuters. It will be a bloody mess.
Re 191, the French never build anything that works, so threatening to blow up anything is a joke.
The bus lines that go from the LV to midtown would disagree.
Those poor schmucks live in the LV because that is where they can afford to live. NJ is a small state with limited land, we’re better off if we limit ourselves to individuals of high value.
“were better off if we limit ourselves to individuals of high value”
One of Corzine’s aides said as much on the record about 18 months or so ago — something to the effect that having sub $100k earners leave the state is no big deal because, in his words, they are a drain on the state.
Re: O’bama in Holmdel
My guess is they’ll chopper him in and land right on the PNC front lawn. If not there, maybe on the old Bell Labs Heliport.
If you look up in the sky Thursday morning, you might catch a glimpse of Marine One.
#92 - If B.O. travels by car at all…
He’ll be helicoptered in. There’s a landing pad at the trooper’s barracks attached to the Arts Center.
Look at me with the redundant info…
Bye by jobs
Goodbye taxing base
Hello fiscal mess
I think I’m gonna cry
Goodbye tax base
Good bye
We taxed the people
A bit too much
Then Pennsylvania
Ate us for lunch
They offered low rates
And took our jobs
And left us facing
The angry mobs
Bye by jobs
Goodbye taxing base
Hello fiscal mess
I think I’m gonna cry
Goodbye tax base
Good bye
We’re close to NY
Oh, don’t you know
We thought that business
Would never go
But execs got fed up
With how we taxed
So New Jersey Employees
They got the ax
Bye by jobs
Goodbye taxing base
Hello fiscal mess
I think I’m gonna cry
Goodbye tax base
Good bye
Copyright © 2009 poster known here as Shore Guy, ASCAP. All Rights Reserved.
Dolphin,
to bad that state census stats show a net influx of people making less then the median income ( of about 65K) and a net exodus of those households making over 100K.
where exactly is this “sea of wealth” that all of the rich Nj citizens are going to draw from.
those are some nice talking points you have there. fortunately for you most people don’t bother to look at the actual data.
With a tip of the hat to the Everley Brothers
Kettle,
They must be houshold and personal staff to the real earners.
take a look, this was an interesting anecdote of what people are dealing with, kind of forces a perspective check.
A Homespun Safety Net
If nothing else, the recession is serving as a stress test for the American safety net. How prepared have we been for sudden and violent economic dislocations of the kind that leave millions homeless and jobless?…… the recession has done for the government safety net pretty much what Hurricane Katrina did for the Federal Emergency Management Agency: it’s demonstrated that you can be clinging to your roof with the water rising, and no one may come to helicopter you out……
Take the case of Kristen and Joe Parente, Delaware residents who had always imagined that people turned to government for help only if “they didn’t want to work.” Their troubles began well before the recession, when Joe, a fourth-generation pipe fitter, sustained a back injury that left him unfit for even light lifting. He fell into depression for several months, then rallied to ace a state-sponsored retraining course in computer repairs — only to find those skills no longer in demand. The obvious fallback was disability benefits, but — Catch-22 — when Joe applied he was told he could not qualify without presenting a recent M.R.I. scan. This would cost $800 to $900, which the Parentes do not have, nor has Joe, unlike the rest of the family, been able to qualify for Medicaid.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/opinion/12ehrenreich.html?pagewanted=all
How can anyone be a fourth generation pipe fitter. Talk about gene pool issues, been in country since 1880’s and great grandson is still fitting pipes together like an immigrant off the boat in the days of the potato famine. Bet they are proud of being a fourth generation HS dropout.
If you sink you are not a witch. If you float, you are a with and will be hanged or burned to death. Welcome to justice Salem style.
[94] dolphin
“The bus lines that go from the LV to midtown would disagree.”
Doesn’t make it any less insane.
As for lower income folks not being able to afford to live here, there are plenty of areas in NJ with “affordable” housing, and income taxes here are progressive, so lower and mod income folks in SoJo, for example, pay less income tax than Philadelphians.
Further, they are not likely to move for tax purposes. I am not aware of any study that shows tax motives for migration among lower earners. Rather, it is almost always jobs-based.
someone has to shine your shoes and light our stogies.
kettle1 says:
July 13, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Dolphin,
to bad that state census stats show a net influx of people making less then the median income ( of about 65K) and a net exodus of those households making over 100K.
where exactly is this “sea of wealth” that all of the rich Nj citizens are going to draw from.
those are some nice talking points you have there. fortunately for you most people don’t bother to look at the actual data.
[92] shore
Both of my offices in DC were in spitball distance to the WH. I have had presidential preparations up the wazoo, and have no desire to ever attend a POTUS event for just that reason. Once was enough, and that was pre-9/11 (clinton).
Besides, you don’t protest to get 0bama’s attention, you protest to get everyone else’s.
Nom,
When one has nothing, there is little as risk and, thus, no need to protect it. The folks who need to consider relocation or other tax mitigation strategies are thos funding the refundable tax credits, not those receiving them.
No, BOHICA. And don’t complain. You live close to NY, and that makes it all worth enduring.
“No” should have been “Now.”
Indeed, POTUS events are a major PITA.
Here’s a photo of what real estate prices look like right now:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1199149/Super-slow-motion-pictures-soap-bubble-bursting-stunning-detail.html
“Super-slow-motion pictures show soap bubble bursting in stunning detail”
What SAF didn’t say is that the Glazers are furiously paying down debt.
I like the twist of giving Owen CR7’s old number. Classy.
(ESPN)- Sir Alex Ferguson handed Michael Owen Ronaldo’s old shirt at Manchester United and then declared Old Trafford closed for transfer business.
Owen will wear the No.7 shirt.
After recieving £80m from the sale of the Portuguese winger to Real Madrid, it was thought Ferguson would add to the signings of Owen, Antonio Valencia and Gabriel Obertan.
But, faced with a market over-inflated by Real Madrid and Manchester City, Ferguson has decided his current squad is good enough to challenge for an unprecedented fourth consecutive league title, even though Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez have left.
He said: “It is the end of our business, so all these stories about who were are supposed to be getting - forget it. I can only placate the fans this way and say I am not going to be stupid.
“We have got that wonderful sum of money from Real Madrid but there was no way we were going to throw it away and put an extra nought on the end of the transfer which I didn’t think was value.”
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
July 13, 2009 at 12:41 pm
“[94] dolphin
“The bus lines that go from the LV to midtown would disagree.”
Doesn’t make it any less insane.
As for lower income folks not being able to afford to live here, there are plenty of areas in NJ with “affordable” housing, and income taxes here are progressive, so lower and mod income folks in SoJo, for example, pay less income tax than Philadelphians.”
Nom, I think I’m going to have to disagree with you here - you are missing the point.
The vast majority of people who moved out to areas like the Lehigh valley over the last 10 years were lower/middle income people who could buy a new 4/2.5 with a yard for less than the cost of a 1 bedroom condo in NJ “safe” neighbourhoods.
I even read about a painter from Long Island who bought out there and commuted out to LI for work every day.
Insane? Yes.
Was it the only way he felt he could give his family a better life? Yes.
I don’t know how it worked out for him in the end.
Awful as it is - commuting on 78 or 80 to NY is a lot more realistic than commuting there from South Jersey, although places such as Jackson saw a huge influx during the boom.
“Awful as it is - commuting on 78 or 80 to NY is a lot more realistic than commuting there from South Jersey, although places such as Jackson saw a huge influx during the boom”
Lisoosh,
There is something to whay you say. It can take a half an hour just to get onto the Parkway and then it is so prone to conjestion that it makes any commute from Ocean County to NY a nightmare — people do it, but it is no less crazy.
why the heck would a painter from LI move there? LI still has Levitown and Island Park, two blue collar communities that are rock solid with good schools and cheap homes. The guy is a painter, can’t he buy an estate sale that needs painting and paint it for nothing?
NY Mag has an article up on the collapse of the Williamsburg condo market. They’re already comparing it to Miami, though that may be a little too soon.
Curbed also has an blurb about how some of the halted constructions are already being squatted.
John - define a cheap home. Top of the bubble LI had only 11% of the population able to afford the median home.
To a guy making $50k, $450k isn’t cheap. Not everyone took out an interest only mortgage during the bubble.
While a rotting 1950’s capes in South Orange on a postage stamp were flying off the shelves at $550k, you could buy a spotless 1990’s ranch outside of Easton PA for around $230k.
Bit further out and voila - brand new 4 bedroom colonial on half an acre for $190k.
OF COURSE people jumped at it. They believed they were priced out of NJ forever.
Now they are stuck out in the sticks with shoddy construction and no real employment.
Shore - I had a commute which had me getting on the Parkway at 131 and off at 136.
Just that section of road took half an hour. Going home on Fridays in the summer - hour to an hour and a half just those few exits. Horrible.
Nice quote from a house listing:
“Built by a builder”.
Well my aunt on sunday told me her development had to build lower income homes, if you made under 74K a year you got the right to buy a brand new 2br home for 179K.
Most people who could not really aford a home somehow refused to buy a two family home or coop on LI or even rent. Someone making 50K a year should not be buying fixer uppers for 450K. Also considering back in the bubble days college graduates were making 50K fresh out of school a guy with a wife and kids is buying a home on the salary of a 21 year old is a little scary. When I was single and living in a rent stablized apt on 45K a year I could barely afford beer.
“Another Bubble” In Housing? It Could Happen, Says Yale’s Robert Shiller
“there could be another bubble” in housing, once the excess inventory is worked off. “This is not my more probable scenario [but] people have gotten very speculative in their attitudes toward housing,” he says.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/278952/%E2%80%9CAnother-Bubble%E2%80%9D-In-Housing-It-Could-Happen-Says-Yale%E2%80%99s-Robert-Shiller?tickers=UMM,DMM,XHB,DHI,KBH,LEN,PHM&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Yeah, 5-10 years from now when the excess inventory is worked off.
where is shiller coming up with this garbage?
is he trying to sell etfs?
L,
Imagine the commute from the bridge south, where there are few good alternate routes, and most of those are littered with stop lights.
Once one gets to Asbury, where the road narrows, it gets even worse. Nowadays, with people commuting from south of Toms River to NY, what used to be FRIDAY TRAFFIC is now daily traffic.
L,
Is built by a builder supposed to distinguish it from the places built by any warm body the contractor could scare up at the local corner?
IS this the start of the takeover by our friends from the great white north, eh?
Tim Hortons makes it to Times Square
Morning commuters walk by Tim Hortons at Penn Station in New York on Monday. Tim Hortons Inc. began serving its coffee, baked goods and soups and sandwiches for the first time in New York. (Jamie Fine/Reuters)
Starting Monday, New Yorkers can order a Tim Hortons double-double as the iconic Canadian coffee shop chain opens for business in the Big Apple.
Nine of the 10 locations in Manhattan are scheduled to open Monday, including stores on Broadway and at Madison Square Garden, Penn Station and Times Square. Two more locations will open in Brooklyn.
“New Yorkers are savvy customers. They understand good value and quality and are prepared to try new things,” chief operations officer David Clanachan said in a release.
The company plans to open three other locations in Manhattan next month in existing Cold Stone Creamery outlets as part of a co-branding test of up to 100 U.S. stores.
Tim Hortons has close to 3,500 locations in North America, including more than 500 in the U.S.
The chain sells about two billion cups of coffee annually and accounts for more than seven of every 10 cups of coffee sold in fast-food restaurants in Canada.
Last month, Tim Hortons filed a plan with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to become a subsidiary of a firm incorporated in Canada.
The company, which originated in Canada, is currently the subsidiary of a U.S. firm after being spun off by former owner Wendy’s International in 2006.
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2009/07/13/tim-hortons-new-york-manhattan-united-states-expansion.html
re: #124 - Shore - I know a bunch of loonies make that commute every day, most have hypertension and will be lucky to make it to 55 yrs old.
Sean,
But they get to live “at the Shore.”
From the WSJ via calculatedrisk; Option ARMs perfomring worse than sub-prime.
lisoosh, correct. “Affordable” neighborhoods in New Jersey are basically ghetto crevices we’d all rather pretend don’t exist. New Jersey is going in the direction of most prosperous urban societies - a large upper class supported by a large under class. The middle class just gets in the way. With the middle class comes suburban sprawl and station wagons. PA can have them.
July 11, 2009
NEW YORK CITY’S MIDDLE CLASS IS VOTING WITH THEIR FEET
America’s middle class is disappearing.
The very Americans the Obama administration is hoping will lift the economy out of recession are facing epic challenges.
As a result of a sizeable drop in home values, along with over-extended credit and rising unemployment, as many as one in four of the 31 million middle class families are in danger of dropping a rung on the economic ladder, statistics show.
That’s as many as eight million families in the last nine years, with a median income of $80,000 for a family of four, according to public-policy group Demos.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07112009/business/the_vanishing_class_178755.htm
Tosh,
from the numbers i have seen, the option arms and Prime are way bigger then the dreaded sub prime mess. batten the hatches!
Wells and JPM both have about a 100 billion worth of these dirty bombs siting in their vaults.
so obama wants to send 1 trillion on healthcare. while funding trillion dollar deficits, state bailouts, and a second inevitable bank bailout.
Veto,
Shiller is just trying to play nice with TBPT or he finally drank to much coolaide. either way its BS, who has 20% for a DP and what bank is going to loan money for a rapidly depreciating asset at this point in time?
Sean 131, good news. American society is cleansing itself. We have way too many middle-class people who think they’re entitled to the things only the rich should be entitled to. The sooner they are humbled the better.
dolpinbeater = a RE101/frank hybrid?
#132 - They certainly composed a larger percentage of the overall mortgage market. This is going to take a very long time to play out.
Speaking of traffic around POTUS visits. I decided to avoid the GSP traffic commuting to Montclair from Union a few months back. There is a great North/South route through South Mountain reservation that takes about ten minutes longer than the GSP route. Well I didn’t realize that Biden was stopping by the South Mountain Arena to stump for Corslime. Even thought the event wasn’t starting for another three hours, they were already letting one car through at a time (visual search) through much of the reservation. Needless to say, it took me an extra half an hour to commute home that day. I could only imagine what it will be like when the messiah comes through.
I must be a wimp. My walk/train/subway commute takes 1 hr. 30 min door to door each day and I hate it. Another minute more and I would need a straight-jacket.
beater (133)-
In America, it’s been a sin for quite a while to be poor. Now you say it’s a sin to be middle class?
Too bad that if we wipe out the middle class, we will descend into Third world chaos.
Many here might say it’s already happened.
Kind of a WTF article form the the Philly Enq. about children being held responsible for a parent’s debt. Article on has one example and not a great one either. The general gist; companies who are owed money are trying to enforce a bit of common law that holds the child responsible if the parent can’t pay.
Once again, all disclaimers on the article.
tosh [116]
Articles (and accompanying photos) like that make me think that playing SimCity should be mandatory for any Developer/Builder and Redevelopment Government Official.
TOSH
you thought clot and i were joking about indentured servitude????
Clot #138, it’s no sin. They’re just unhelpful, is all. The poor, on the other hand, we need. Someone’s gotta do the sh1t our kids won’t (and shouldn’t) do. The middle class, with their silly NIMBY crap and social paranoia, gets in the way of real progress. Get rid of those leaches and we’ll have NJ’s cities looking like Paris in no time with the poor pushed to the burbs (say bye bye to Morris Plains).
http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20090713sources_cubs_exploring_bankruptcy_filing/srvc=home&position=recent
Tribune is looking to shed some debt.
Found a great 2 min video on Zero Hedge showing the disparity between Median Income and Home Pricing.
Enjoy.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/housing-tunes-acme-cheap-credit-vs-wile.html#links
PJ
#140 - Articles… like that make me think that playing SimCity should be mandatory
At the very least it would make urban planners aware of the continuous threat posed by Godzilla.
#141 - I didn’t think they’d try to bring it back unadorned like that. I figured they’d dress it up with a name like, ‘Legacy Debt Divestment’ or some such.
I had the free Hortons coffee in Penn this morning nothing to write home about, even had the acknods from the old Dunkin Donuts stand serving it, think she told me to have a curry nice day. Should of had the molson girls serving it.
Also what does median income have to do with prices of single family homes, brand new S Class Benzs and 7 series are expensive when compared to mediam income too, what does that mean. Nothing.
Tosh,
i wonder if someone with the money and will could take such a ruling far enough to determine if a 200+ year old law still has standing. It seems dubious to me, but no one said the law had to make sense.
That nymag article is a great read. W’burg is going to be hurting for a loooong time. Hudson county however will remain Immune….
:)
John 146, well said. What makes the median income schmucks think they deserve sfh’s? This truly is the entitlement society. They belong in tenements, they can have better when they do better.
Wells Fargo sues itself.
Ahh, billable hours.
beater (142)-
You’re an asshole.
Warren NJ rated one of top ten places to live in the U.S. via Yahoo via Money via CNN.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/107319/best-places-to-live-2009-edition.html?mod=realestate-buy
I love our neighborhood and house and family and local eateries that we have here in NJ…
I can not stand how this state is run..too many things to list.
If my wife ever lost her job, I am out of here…
#147 - What I took away from the article is the Penns. has loose lien laws. Someone just slapped an $8k lien against the guy’s house based on his mom’s debt. It really doesn’t mean they have a leg to stand on in court, they could just be fishing for some settlement cash.
Texas used to be infamous for exactly these sort of shenanigans. I don’t know if it’s cleaned up any.
someone should lock Gary and Dolphin in a room together,
by the way dolphin, I believe that a few other regimes throughout history have come up with plans for dealing with the undesirables in their respective populations. It never really seems to work though.
kettle 155 that’s because they tried to mess with the poor. The thing with the poor is, they deal with adversity every day. They have balls of effing steel, son. And you know what happens to the poor who have the requisite fire in the belly and just the right amount of luck? They become the rich. America is full of people like that. The rich who were born poor. They’re the best kind because they kicked arse and took names every step of the way, they take no prisoners and they don’t show no mercy.
Who are the middle class? The poor who played it safe, took no risks, showed just enough drive to get that 70k job at Schering Plough but not one iota more…
IOW, it’s the middle class who are the true losers of our society. The true waste matter, deserving to be washed away to make room for others.
Do away with them and they won’t even whimper. That’s who they are, they’ll just move to PA and say thank you.
the fish is just trolling the other day he said something along the lines of soak the rich.
Dolphins are mammals.
re #158 - yes and it also can be hooked, filleted and fried.
Touché.
“Also what does median income have to do with prices of single family homes? Nothing.”
John, Dolphin Beater,
Im glad you both found each other.
I can tell there will be some more rediculously funny posts coming up.
but if anyone tries to take them for even half serious, their whole day will probably be ruined.
#139 toshiro: That is insane. Would not a court overturn that immediately?
So much for a dolphin-safe blog.
Greenpeace will be here at any moment. That and Greenspan with his Mt. Rushmore banner.
Shore - your comment earlier will probably bring a visit from the Men in Black.
Dolphin,
It’s a basic as quality of life. A client of mine just told me about the town he moved to about 20 miles south of Philadelphia called Wallingford, Pa (next town up is Swarthmore-Swarthmore College). It’s also just 25 miles from Wilmington, DE and just 10-15 miles from Villanova/Radnor etc where other corporations are HQ’d. All with in sane commuting distance for one to make a decent living and provide for their family.
Below is a listing for a 450k home or a POS Cape for it’s No. Jersey counterpart.
http://tinyurl.com/m6fjvk
Who are the foolish ones?
There are worse things. It will remove the worries about planning for retirement.
#162 - Yes, that is what usually happened in TX. The lien filer (claimant ?) is just wagering on the odds though. Sooner or later they’ll find someone who’ll fall for it and not contest. If the cost of filing a lien is small enough profits are to be had.
Secondary Market, for reasons you couldn’t even begin to fathom, the answer is you. You are foolish.
secondary, is that agent missing teeth?
i cant tell for sure. i hope its just the pixels.
Nom,
You might appreciate this legal twist, it comes via a headsup from ASCAP:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/07/09/zookz_why/
The danger of poor customer service in the internet age:
http://www.wibw.com/nationalnews/headlines/50472822.html
As Frank would say…..
What recession? Heck, banks have so much money they can sue themselves!!!!!!!!
oh please enlighten me dolphin, i mean bireinvestorfrank.
there must be so much shadow inventory out there… astonishing amounts.
Thats the only explanation that i can think of why we arent 35% off peak prices.
The foreclosures that i know of around my neighborhood, are just sitting quietly, for months. They arent even trying to sell them. Not so much as a for sale sign on the front lawn.
They actually dont want to sell them.
Does anyone know the favorable treatment that banks get by holding these rotting corpses on their balance sheets?
Whatever it is… its a total a scam that we are all paying for.
It is all the same
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-07-13-poll-health-care_N.htm
We want healthcare, but not to pay for it;
We want to be thin, but not to watch our weight;
We think our houses are worth more than thay are, with no real reason but than “it is mine.”
Are we really descended from the people who overthrew the king and conquered a continent?
[171] shore guy
from the link . . .
“The song recounts Carroll’s yearlong struggle to get compensation for what he calls “a vicious act of malice” at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago last year.
Carroll was flying between Halifax and Nebraska when he switched planes in Chicago. The passenger next to him noticed baggage handlers tossing guitar cases outside the plane”
To me, that’s deja vu all over again. We were flying back from Steamboat 2 years ago, and were horribly delayed getting into O’Hare (on American). We watched as the ground crew threw bags over the loading ramp, including my wife’s ski bag (a distinctive color), onto a truck. I started taking pictures of it so we could later claim damage.
No discernible damage, but our bags did not return from Chicago for a week.
I hate O’Hare. Never got through it without some delay or hassle. I will only fly through O’Hare at gunpoint.
[175] shore
No. you and I are descended from slothful Europeans (is that redundant?)
so timmy g speaks and CIT ended down the day just a few cents off. So lets recap bankrupt at 10 am at 4 pm just waitig for tim and ben to do the right thing. sheila you ain’t the boss of me.
veto, once the bank takes the property, they assume the taxes, fees, etc…
I’m guessing that it looks better if their balance sheet slowly bleeds than showing an instantaneous loss as the result of selling the foreclosure to someone else.
If the government truly wanted to fix the problem, they shouldn’t be giving homeowners 5 to 6 figure gifts for being underwater. They should be sponsoring short sales.
WTF is pret?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=akF7zhJ7yRjo
[139] tosh
Even for an attorney, that is a WTF moment, and one that makes estate planning in PA a bit complicated.
I am not barred in PA and have no familiarity with that concept. It’s also not the first case I have heard of, and my initial reaction is that the parent must have an interest in the house somewhere, but this statute requires no such hook except blood.
One thing that seems apparent is that it cannot be enforced on a child that lives out of state and has no connection to PA. The PA court can’t get personal or subject matter jurisdiction.
Nom,
Naw, my relatives from the 1600s through the mid 1800s, were at the forefront of pushing the nation forward. The ones that came in the later 1800s (like some of yours, I bet) were seen as alien and to be taken advantage of and instead of rolling over they banded together and formed alliances to push back, with sever force when necessary.
I am not sure what has happened since the end of WWII, or maybe it was later than that but something (Disco, perhaps?) seems to have taken a bite out of our national character and made many of us wimpy. We could use more “pick yourself up by your bootstraps” people and fewer “oh I better seek affirmation from my whatever group” people.
Look folks, life is tough and it is not by nature fun. Accept it and stop bit-ching.
this article is predicting a Fall tipping point in Nantucket when sellers will reach capitulation and start dumping their properties onto the market en masse…
Nantucket Report: Wealthy Homeowners Primed to Suffer Major Pain
…think of Nantucket as a microcosm of the next segment of the real-estate market that’s poised to collapse: The super-expensive fabulously wealthy communities at the high end who heard for years that they were immune.
Your basic 3-bedroom, 2-bath with a tiny lawn in the middle of town costs $1.5 million. Dozens of houses listed at more than $10 million. The ex-president of Goldman Sachs recently listed his for $55 million.
But, of course, that’s all fantasy, because right now houses just aren’t selling at all.
Why not?
Because sellers are still engaged in a mass-hallucination, helped along by encouraging noises from desperate real-estate agents who will say and believe anything to retain clients until the market finally recovers.
In other words, on Nantucket, as elsewhere, the current mantra of most owners is: “We’ll just rent for a year until the market comes back.”
In fact, the general feeling on the island is that the 5X+ price appreciation in the dozen years from the early 1990s was just the normal rate of wealth-creation that a Nantucket homeowner can expect and that prices will surely soon bounce back to the peak levels they hit a couple of years ago and then rocket higher.
Meanwhile, would-be buyers feel differently. They look at the prices Nantucket sellers are asking, and they wonder what on earth has been dumped into the island’s water supply. They also look at all the rental vacancies this summer, and the willingness of many homeowners to negotiate on rent, and observe that they would be nuts to buy now when renting is so relatively cheap.
So, the rare bear predicts, this fall will finally mark the sellers’ capitulation, as Nantucket sellers cut their losses and dump their houses for what the market will bear. That level is likely at least 50% below peak prices, or another 30% below most asking prices today.
One resident says unemployment hit 16% this winter and that more than a thousand families had given up and left the island. This resident also reports that the low end of the Nantucket real-estate market has already crashed: Some teachers in the local school system had listed their modest house for the island-average selling price of about $1.2 million… and ended up selling it for about $600,000. So that’s a 50% decline. And there’s likely a lot more where that came from.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/279536/Nantucket-Report-Wealthy-Homeowners-%22Primed%22-to-Suffer-Major-Pain?tickers=%5Edji,itb,kbh,tol,len,xhb&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
[182] shore
We descended from steerage trash, fleeing principalities and potato famine. My sister used to joke that “our name means ‘from the earth.’ That means we’re dirt.”
She was incorrect on the translation, but not by much.
Meet Joe Dirt
I love GS at 150 a share, that puppy was around 45 a share last Thanksgiving. I hope their employees asked for their year end 2008 bonus all in stock!!!!
GS, MS and JPM Rock on Baby!
[185]
Joe Dirt > John
At pretty much everything.
Except for bond-picking.
Thanks to Omama, Ben and Tim, Wall St. firms have made many billions trading mortgages last quarter.
Nom,
It took B@lls to be steerage trash. Weakling fradycats (sp?) did not venture into the great unknown.
This should make some folks here happy . . .
“Pelosi Says Health Care Reform Plan to Be Released July 14, Tax on Rich Included
House Democrats will unveil a roughly $1 trillion health care overhaul plan with revenue-raising offsets July 14, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said at a July 13 press conference.
A draft version of the legislation unveiled June 19 did not include any offsets to keep the plan deficit neutral. Pelosi said what will be released is not a “finished product” because three committees must still hold markups.
The release of the plan has been repeatedly delayed and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said at the press conference that there are still “a number of pay-fors in both houses on the table and we’re going to be talking about those further.”
Pelosi acknowledged that Democrats will impose a surtax on the rich to pay for the health care plan, saying “it will be at the high end and not touch the middle class.”
Pelosi, Hoyer, and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) are heading to the White House later this afternoon to discuss the health care overhaul.”
CIT GROUP INC INTERNOTE 7.900 02/15/15 33.623 36.958 Ba2 |BB- C 2010
gotta love a bond where the price and yield are around the same.
[189] shore
In our case, it was more likely arrest warrants or potential future FILs with shotguns that prompted such wanderlust.
Nom,
Perhaps they can just call the financing plan ex-lax for the HENRYS, after all, the rich can defer income and hide it.
Re: Steerage…..
I think it was Ross Perot that said “The cowards never left and the weak died along the way”
Of course, that comment was overshadowed by his Giant Sucking Analogy.
Hey is this place in midtown any good, got invited to lunch there. Piano Due
Good times: a wildfire has started in CA, and the state’s vendors to their firefighting aircraft will only accept payment by cash or credit card, as virtually all of them are still trying to collect last year’s bills.
I guess one way to fix CA’s problems would be to let the whole state go up in smoke…
If I were Arn, the first thing I’d do is secure the pot fields and make sure they don’t burn.
Yeah, they made billions trading mortgages. They take $.35 of garbage onto their balance sheet and thanks to the end of mark to market now claim it is worth $.50. In the coming years it will turn out to still be worth $.35 and what played out last fall will play out all over again.
HE (198)-
It will play out all over again, for sure.
The next time, it will take the whole economy under.
The CMBS simply cannot be fudged, obfusc@ted or disappeared.
The PPIP refi attempts will fail, and the entire CMBS market will collapse.
@200,
so buy URE and sell SRS.
Seneca says:
July 13, 2009 at 2:24 pm
“I must be a wimp. My walk/train/subway commute takes 1 hr. 30 min door to door each day and I hate it. Another minute more and I would need a straight-jacket.”
It is straightjacket worthy. Same commute from my area. Of course the RE pumpers insist that it is really 45 mins.
John says:
July 13, 2009 at 2:51 pm
“Also what does median income have to do with prices of single family homes, brand new S Class Benzs and 7 series are expensive when compared to mediam income too, what does that mean. Nothing.”
It means that you want a reasonable percentage of people to be able to afford houses to keep the market ticking along. Not too many and not too few.
veto that says:
July 13, 2009 at 3:16 pm
“I can tell there will be some more rediculously funny posts coming up.
but if anyone tries to take them for even half serious, their whole day will probably be ruined.”
Bingo. I believe Dolphinbeater is attempting satire.
“Not too many and not too few.”
you definately want too many people to be able to afford,
if thats an option.
which its not.
Just the handle alone is hillarious.
“, brand new S Class Benzs and 7 series are expensive when compared to mediam income too”
The difference is that these are not “median-priced automobiles.”
you definately want too many people to be able to afford,
if thats an option
Is that not where the bubble start?I agree with John,not too many not too few.
#186 John:MS
No Morgan dude.
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:
July 13, 2009 at 4:38 pm
“Re: Steerage…..
I think it was Ross Perot that said “The cowards never left and the weak died along the way””
Another way of looking at it is a nation populated entirely by people who couldn’t make it on their home turf :-).
another bloody day for ultrashorts!
And then grew up to be richer and stronger then the “hometown crowd,” and then had to pull their @$$es out of a sling.
Clot,
The amazing thing is the lemmings continue to buy the one off gimmicks. First the AIG conduit/bailout. Then the refi-madness. Now the pull junk onto your balance sheet and reinflate the value. Technically they have turned a “profit”.
Question is what is the next “gimmick”?
Whitney thinks it will be the underwriting fees from a tsunami of debt issuances but I don’t see who is going to be the buyers.
Aleynikov’s home sits at the foot of a hill in an exclusive street off Mountain Avenue, where homes are listed in the $1.5 million range.
http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-dealzone/2009/07/13/all-quiet-at-the-aleynikov-mcmansion/
#214 - That is what I was looking for.
Wow he bought a Hovnanian home, how appropriate.
I guess thatmakes us sort of am Island of Misfit toys, with an attitude.
DL says:
July 13, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Warren NJ rated one of top ten places to live in the U.S. via Yahoo via Money via CNN.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/107319/best-places-to-live-2009-edition.html?mod=realestate-buy
Last time I checked Warren twp had 150+ homes listed on GSMLS (out of probably 3,000 or so; amazing ratio btw), which gives a rare opportunity to the buyers to have their pick at one of the 10 top places to live…
#215 Did he own properties in passaic county too?
#215 - I presume he is trying to sell the house he owns in Little Falls.
Aleynikov’s home sits at the foot of a hill in an exclusive street off Mountain Avenue,
Arbor
Looks like he has a property in clifton city too.
Stu,
I think we found the moniker for our class. Though I draw the line at yellowtail (yech).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=aPDiwx8EVI4k
“you definately want too many people to be able to afford,”
“Is that not where the bubble start?”
Yome,
the bubble was in prices,
not in affordability.
when affordablity is high, prices are low.
#
veto that says:
July 13, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Just the handle alone is hillarious.
TunaNet
To be clear: One of the only legitimate pieces of original thought on these threads that doesn’t merely parrot the closest published doomsayer is pol clot.
He made the following singular insight that I believe to be absolutely correct, and I have virtually not heard it ANYWHERE else.
On the way up, homes in the area were consistently underpriced given supply demand imbalances. A seller would get multiple bids through asking and be lauding their realtor for a job well done. In reality, the realtor was a hack who was too limited to understand that prices should have been even more aggressive, befitting market conditions. Money was consistently left on the table by the seller in such circumstances, and it happened repeatedly.
I have decided that in the running for the theme song for this RE bust is:
When the Levee Breaks, by that fine blues band Led Zeppelin.
Oops, light changing.
3b says:
July 13, 2009 at 11:21 am
376 dolphinbeater:They live in PA because the market has set their intrinsic worth at a level that does not allow them to live in New Jersey.
That is a bunch of crap, and some of the same kind of thinking that led the state to the mess that it is in.
or, one could say they live in PA because they are wiser. on the house we bought out here, the taxes would be double in NJ.
i’m not a PA guy (just moved here for the town, the school, the lower taxes), or a NJ guy. there was just no way i was going to buy in a state that could be cali (financially) in 2 years.
As opposed to the Memphis Mini version.
#224 Veto
When there is too many buyers,prices goes up.Bubble starts.
If a community of “can afford”don’t sell their home are they affected by the downturn?No.
Most probably a bidding offer for the ones that wants to buy in the community.
OK. Let us presume that John & Tuna are correct. Middle class be dammed we should live in tenements. If an area has little rental stock & an abundance of SFH that because of the taxes you would be a fool to buy & rent out ( no multis)what will happen to the price of these homes.Easy one.
Now these prices get lower & lower as they strive to meet the affordability level (with taxes) of middle class. It will happen you will see maybe not in all of of NJ but surely out in Sussex by me.
Yesterday, someone posted stats on the number of “households” that were either underwater or behind on their mortgages (behind, I think). It was something like 20%.
Since about half of all homes do not have a mortgage (or something like that) it would seem the percentage of mortgage holders who are underwater or behind must be staggering. Has anyone seen any such stats (that excluse freely-held properties)?
Sign of the times:
Went to a business owned by African American female. On the wall was a large poster of O, with the caption CHANGE beneath his vibrant smile.
Her business is closing in 14 days.
Yeah, that’s change alright.
Shore, staggering is the word.
“dolphins”
i like dolphins (and whales too).
I went swimming one time with some dolphins, really fun.
I sometimes go whale watching too.
back in mid 80s- i use to take some of the foster kids out to Montauk point, and did whale watching tours.
Its alot of fun.
SAS
Oroin you forgot hope.
From HousingWire:
S&P Downgrades 120 Classes of Alt-A RMBS
After a review of 13 US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions, Standard and Poor’s lowered its ratings on 120 of the securities’ classes last week.
The collateral backing the vintage 2005-2007 securities are primarily Alt-A, first-lien residential mortgages.
S&P said it made the downgrades after reviewing the mortgage loan collateral in the securities and believes the investments will lose value because of an increase in delinquencies and the current negative condition of the housing market.
some of you people out there with MBA’s, you should exchange that for a professional plumber license.
SAS
“One of the only legitimate pieces of original thought on these threads that doesn’t merely parrot the closest published doomsayer is pol clot”
hugh?
i don’t parrot anyone.
haven’t i taught you blokes anything afterall this time?
shucks…
SAS
SAS I don’t know , my friend the plumber is about to lose his house . No work , be doing it for years (20). Pumping gas to get by.
“SAS I don’t know , my friend the plumber is about to lose his house”
thats a surprize to hear. I know alot of plumbers who are maken a decent wage.
not rolling up in a BMW, but maken a living, with a little scratch left over at the end of the month.
Plumbers crossed my mind cause I just doled out 1k on plumbing for my small little hacienda out near Oradell.
SAS
i need some work done in the shower units, and new toliet (no dirty jokes please).
for the shower work, i can never removed those damn spindles off correctly, i get to frusterated… then I have to count to 10.
SAS
tell you the truth, if i could rewind the clock I would of either been a plumber or a mailman.
Two professions I really envy.
Instead, i got stuck with something else.
SAS
The Plumber’s Sense of Humor….
His wife brought home a new toilet brush, but after a week he went back to using toilet paper.
BA-DA-BUMP.
Another reason why molecular gastronomy blows.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/experimental-cook-blows-hands-off-trying-molecular-gastronomy-20090714-dj0r.html
sas, You only envy those positions since the great recession started.
and dont sell your career short. 20 yrs as a mall security guard has its advantages.
;^)
SAS,
Plu.bers as in Hunt and Liddy?
safe (245)-
I’d name that dish Hand Hash.
Perhaps serve it with a nice jus of nitrogen and pan juices, thickened with a little blood and mounted with butter.
#242 sas
You’re looking for someone else to do your wetwork? Say its not so! LOL
Disclaimer: My brother is a plumber. Business is definitely off according to him…
232 Yesterday, someone posted stats on the number of “households” that were either underwater or behind on their mortgages (behind, I think). It was something like 20%.
Since about half of all homes do not have a mortgage (or something like that) it would seem the percentage of mortgage holders who are underwater or behind must be staggering. Has anyone seen any such stats (that excluse freely-held properties)?
If ther was 100 houses.50 are paid for and 50x 20%=10.So 10 for every 100 homes are underwater.10% of all homes are underwater.
“When there is too many buyers, prices goes up. Bubble starts.”
yome, i cant tell if we actually agree or are at opposite ends of the spectrum. my sense is that we’re probably splitting hairs over semantics, which is fun too.
Just because there are tons of people who can afford to buy, doesnt automatically mean we get a bubble.
But its the credit that gets flooded into the system and into the hands of those who otherwise couldn’t afford to buy that causes the abnormal price appreciation, which then leads to rabid speculative bubbles.
Veto I think we agree but just like to disagree.
buyer=sellerYesterday, someone posted stats on the number of “households” that were either underwater or behind on their mortgages (behind, I think). It was something like 20%.
Since about half of all homes do not have a mortgage (or something like that) it would seem the percentage of mortgage holders who are underwater or behind must be staggering. Has anyone seen any such stats (that excluse freely-held properties)?
This are your buyers.More buyers less sellers price goes up.
On the downturn:
More sellers less buyers.Prices goes down.
I agree affordability plays a role.You will not make an offer if you can not afford it.But both parties have to agree before there is a transaction.You can scream how this people are still holding on to 2006 prices but there is no transaction until one blinks.
8: Bi called $40/bbl oil.
Blind hogs find acorns, too, but give credit where due.
But its the credit that gets flooded into the system and into the hands of those who otherwise couldn’t afford to buy that causes the abnormal price appreciation, which then leads to rabid speculative bubbles.
This are your buyers.More buyers less sellers price goes up.
On the downturn:
More sellers less buyers.Prices goes down.
I agree affordability plays a role.You will not make an offer if you can not afford it.But both parties have to agree before there is a transaction.You can scream how this people are still holding on to 2006 prices but there is no transaction until one blinks
252 cut and paste error :)
243: If I could rewind the clock, I’d let the missile destroy Hackensack, and save Lois Lane, instead of doing vice-versa and then having to muck with the space-time continuum.
But yeah, I, too, wish I had learned a trade instead of getting by on my looks…
110: I politely suggest that you’ve either been placed in a corner with the wrong people (”Ah, lessee, Clayton, Sidney, Lonnie, Jagdish, Mohamet …”), or haven’t been to the right POTUS events.
Veto
Just because there are tons of people who can afford to buy, doesnt automatically mean we get a bubble.
It does not mean they are buyers even if they can afford to buy.yome, i cant tell if we actually agree or are at opposite ends of the spectrum. my sense is that we’re probably splitting hairs over semantics, which is fun too.
I agree buddy.
Going through the June contracts data.
Holy cow, contracts through the roof in some towns.
We’re talking above-peak-levels in some areas.
Good through the roof or through the roof and prices through the floor?
CLEVELAND—Anthony Parker, a swingman who has spent half of his 12-year pro career in the National Basketball Association, signed to serve as a backup to LeBron James next season.
Parker signed a deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers that will see him serve as a top reserve behind James, the NBA Most Valuable Player, or guards Delonte West and Mo Williams.
“Anthony will be a solid addition to our roster,” Ferry said. “He is a very good, intelligent all-around basketball player.”
The Cavaliers had the NBA’s best regular-season record last season but were defeated by Orlando in the Eastern Conference finals. Since then, Cleveland added 37-year-old superstar center Shaquille O’Neal in a trade with Phoenix.
Parker, who averaged 10.7 points and 3.4 assists last season for the Toronto Raptors, played five seasons for Maccabi Tel Aviv and another with Virtus Roma from 2000-2006 before returning to the NBA.
In 290 games over six NBA seasons, Parker has averaged 10.1 points and 3.4 rebounds with Toronto, Orlando and Philadelphia.
Wayne, NJ
June Contracts
2004 - 59
2005 - 62
2006 - 52
2007 - 47
2008 - 43
2009 - 60
“veto I think we agree but just like to disagree.”
Yo’me,
are you sure we are not married?
ha,
anyway, i see your angle.
good points.
Passaic County, NJ
June Contracts
2004 - 339
2005 - 337
2006 - 265
2007 - 255
2008 - 216
2009 - 292
(not in Morris)
Morris County, NJ
June Contracts
2004 - 662
2005 - 680
2006 - 530
2007 - 590
2008 - 440
2009 - 506
Captain Cheapo,
Are you FIOSed yet?
#248 pol clot
I’d name that dish Hand Hash.
I hear it’s good finger food.
Who in their right mind could object to CIA doing this?
ttp://twp.com/news.jsp?key=410987&rc=se_na
How about some Essex data, Grim…since we didn’t get any comp killers :)
Safe,
It is a popular Yakuza dish.
266 Shore - FIOS has to wait until we are back from Vegas so we can port our home phone over.
grim,
any way to tell what portion of the june sales were distressed?
Not that it even matters.
sales volume is sales volume.
Essex County, NJ
June Contracts
2004 - 593
2005 - 621
2006 - 487
2007 - 465
2008 - 418
2009 - 469
“Not that it even matters.
sales volume is sales volume”
Not if the prices are through the floor versus rising.
shore,
excuse my vague comments.
what i meant to say is that if you look at prices seperate from sales volume, its a fwd indicator.
like cali when sales shot up.
yeah prices were down 50%.
still, one could argue thats the beginning stages of green shoots.
i guess there’s a market for re at 50% discounts.
but this breaking news from grim is concerning. we’re not even down 20%.
but this breaking news from grim is concerning. we’re not even down 20%.
Worth noting that we saw this before in June of 2007.
Year over year contracts were up in June and July of ‘07 across Northern NJ. May 07 also saw contracts up YOY across select counties.
A good example of the increase was Morris, that saw a 9% increase in May 07, and a 12% increase in June 07. Unfortunately, by the end of the year contracts were down close to 40%.
We’re going to need to watch this one, but we’ve seen this once before already.
i guess there’s a market for re at 50% discounts.
but this breaking news from grim is concerning. we’re not even down 20%
Is this the Fair price? We are close to 2004 contracts volume.
Grim do you know what is the avarage prices paid from 2004 contracts and 2009 contracts?
#211 bi:another bloody day for ultrashorts!
Again you are only here on the up days. Go back to reading zillow porn.
#230 yome:If a community of “can afford”don’t sell their home are they affected by the downturn?No.
Sure they are, even if they did not sell. How many homeownersmade made other financial decesions in their lives, based on what the neighbor across the street sold their house for during the bubble??
Unscientific of course, but I know many who did just that.
#279 Still a paper lost until you sell.
#259 grim:Holy cow, contracts through the roof in some towns.
We’re talking above-peak-levels in some areas.
Whcih towns? Any comment/color as to why?
#281 yome:Still a paper lost until you sell
YOu need to think that comment through a little more.
#276 grim but this breaking news from grim is concerning. we’re not even down 20%.
Is that June contracts??
John says:
July 13, 2009 at 12:39 pm
How can anyone be a fourth generation pipe fitter. Talk about gene pool issues, been in country since 1880’s and great grandson is still fitting pipes together like an immigrant off the boat in the days of the potato famine. Bet they are proud of being a fourth generation HS dropout.
this is so f*cked up … but LMAO
Debt-related stress was 12 percent lower this year than in 2008, according to the poll. “People now have some optimism that the worst is behind them,” said Paul J. Lavrakas, a research psychologist and AP consultant who analyzed the results of the survey.
The recession, the longest since World War II, is prompting Americans to take steps to get their finances in better shape. It’s led to a newfound frugality that some believe will continue long after the recession ends.
“People are doing things that make them feel they are taking charge of their lives again,” said Patricia Drentea, associate professor of sociology at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, who studies debt and stress.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31892817/ns/business-personal_finance/
Contracts through the roof? It’s called distress, capitulation and short sales. The blood-letting has begun.
Monmouth County,NJ
June Contracts
2004-997
2005-1150
2006-927
2007-951
2008-847
2009-998
The masses are beginning to panic. The fear of descending into greater debt is the exponential inverse countering the desire to acquire higher levels of wealth. In other words, when your body is in f*cking flames, you’ll do anything to put it out.
Oh Gary. So Dramatic.
Hey didn’t you call yourself Bairen or am I confused?
Bairen is safeashouses, I believe.
Gator,
Are you two ever home for a six-week stretch?
gary (286)-
Yep. Wait ’til the numbers behind that volume get reported. I’m betting that the distress sales and short sales start dragging down the averages.
Buy now or be priced out forever!
brewcrew,
Or, sell now or be priced in forever!
Shore 292 - Stu will be home after this trip…well after guys weekend that is. I’m off to SF and Napa in August :)
Dear Sellers,
Your neighbor just dropped his asking price another $25,000.
#297,
I don’t think so pal, just looked around my town and prices are up by $25,000.0
#287,
“June Contracts”, where’s the recession??
RE in Monmouth county is on fire.
Speculators leave oil market as regulator mulls crackdown
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/speculators-leave-crude-oil
“we’re not even down 20%.”
3b, the 20% refers to prices.
Grim,
Disturbing news. I honestly hope this isn’t the start of an upwards trend, though my gut tells me things are going to start to flatten out around here soon.
I highly doubt a large percentage of those sales are distressed, the foreclsure rate in NJ really isn’t all that high with the exception of the big, cruddy cities like dover, newark, paterson, etc.
frank says:
July 13, 2009 at 10:04 pm
#287,
“June Contracts”, where’s the recession??
RE in Monmouth county is on fire.
let it burn.
Jamey says:
July 13, 2009 at 8:08 pm
8: Bi called $40/bbl oil.
Blind hogs find acorns, too, but give credit where due.
i have forgotten the circumstances surrounding this. wasn’t he like 2.5 years off?
June Contract numbers are real green shoots i can see! forget about the noise.
I’m not really surprised by the uptick in June contracts. There are indeed a lot of “deals” out there, meaning that you can offer 10-15% off ask and get a counter offer and maybe a contract. A lot of people think this the deal of a lifetime. I have a few colleagues who closed in June (one in NW Bergen, one in Monmouth), I would classify them as somewhat savvy professional people. They follow the market and believe that prices have or are about to bottom, but their decision to buy was more family-based. I think we could see a few months of year over year upticks before another leg down.
“Bi called $40/bbl oil”
yup, he did i recall. he was damn near spot on.
SAS
“June Contracts”
doesn’t matter at this point.
too many negative fundamentals.
I hope for good news, but this ain’t it.
SAS
“too many negative fundamentals”
also, you boys think too locally.
just cause one county has a little uptick, yer thinken green shoots?
balderdash
SAS
#@$#@%%ing re market!
Ahh, I feel better already:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE56C3WX20090713
Swearing can make you feel better, lessen pain
Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:31am EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page[-] Text [+]
LONDON (Reuters) - Cut your finger? Hurt your leg? Start swearing. It might lessen the pain.
Researchers from the school of psychology at Britain’s Keele University have found swearing can make you feel better as it can have a “pain-lessening effect,” according to a study published in the journal NeuroReport.
Colleagues Richard Stephens, John Atkins and Andrew Kingston, set out to establish if there was any link between swearing and physical pain.
“Swearing has been around for centuries and is an almost universal human linguistic phenomenon,” says Stephens.
“It taps into emotional brain centers and appears to arise in the right brain, whereas most language production occurs in the left cerebral hemisphere of the brain. Our research shows one potential reason why swearing developed and why it persists.”
Their study involved 64 volunteers who were each asked to put their hand in a tub of ice water for as long as possible while repeating a swear word of their choice.
They then repeated the experiment using a more commonplace word that they would use to describe a table.
The researchers found the volunteers were able to keep their hands in the ice water for a longer when swearing, establishing a link between swearing and an increase in pain tolerance.
Stephens said it was not clear how or why this link existed but it could be because swearing may increase aggression.
“What is clear is that swearing triggers not only an emotional response, but a physical one too, which may explain why the centuries-old practice of cursing developed and still persists today,” he said.
wow. neat.
“Odin, a white Bengal tiger”
http://tinyurl.com/ku3fpk
SAS
NJC,
Thanks for the Mon Co. numbers. Are you a RE agent as well?
SAS,
You are mistakem. That is not a tiger. That is Stu going for a cable TV discount.
“Swearing can make you feel better, lessen pain”
i knew that a long time ago.
It also helps if you want someone to do something for you, or if you wanna scare the shilt out of someone.
or, if you need to break in some little wet private.
SAS
SAS,
You are mistaken. That is not a tiger. That is Stu going for a cable TV discount.
Anyone see this? Good news for Gary, but Nom BOHICA:
U.S. mulling mortgage aid for unemployed
Mon Jul 13, 2009 9:22pm EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page[-] Text [+]
1 of 1Full SizeBy Patrick Rucker and David Lawder
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama is mulling new ways to delay foreclosure for jobless homeowners who are unable to keep up with monthly payments, an administration official said on Monday.
The official told Reuters it was reasonable for policymakers to consider options for loan forbearance — allowing borrowers to delay, defer or skip payments — that are more effective than those currently available in the private sector.
The number of failing home loans has been climbing for three years as risky borrowers have defaulted on their easy-to-get loans, property values have sunk and the unemployment rate has climbed.
But the official said the idea, which is still evolving, was difficult from a policy perspective and carries potential hazards. It could help more people struggling with economic difficulty, but it also could create perverse incentives that distort the housing market, said the official, who did not want to speak on the record about internal administration debates.
The official said such a program would be in keeping with other measures to help workers who have lost jobs in the current recession.
CONTINUED SLIDE
Officials have been frustrated as red-tape and rising mortgage rates have slowed a housing rescue plan announced in February that was meant to refinance 5 million borrowers and lower monthly payments for 4 million more.
A housing crisis of record defaults began at the end of a five-year housing boom of easy lending but the current crisis is being driven by climbing unemployment, say many analysts.
“All these numbers keep going up. We are not anywhere near the bottom,” said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Traditionally, homeowners have been tipped into default after a personal crisis, but the current downturn is worse as many borrowers have no home equity to soften the blow.
“What I don’t know is will every job loss, every divorce, every death going to lead to a foreclosure because there is just not enough equity left in the home to avoid foreclosure?” Brinkmann said.
Recent data from bank regulators present a mixed picture for the industry in responding to the foreclosure crisis as more modifications are being offered while the number of tardy loans continues to grow.
Servicers implemented 185,156 loan modifications during the first quarter of the year, up 55 percent from the prior quarter, according to data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Office of Thrift Supervision.
The report also showed that seriously delinquent mortgages, defined as loans that are 60 or more days past due, increased by nearly 9 percent from the prior quarter to 5 percent of all mortgages in the portfolio.
The Treasury Department asked the largest 25 mortgage service companies last week to appoint a special liaison officer to work directly with government officials trying to stem defaults. Continued..
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE56D04920090714
Ehh,
I would appreciate it if you guy were able to teach me on how to read and post here during the day. It seems like every one is jobless here
guy=guys :(
Blackberry
Still,
If you read it, please drop me an email @
alexey_novikov !@@@@@@ hotmail.com
Shore Guy says:
July 13, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Blackberry
———————
Shore,
I had to turn my cell phone off today completely. I was moving our warehouse today. Good luck with the blogging, while installing an access point at a celing 36 ft high.
Hate BB or iPhone, it’s even worse then a cell phone :(
John,
For you:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29960781
I got my mom to unload her apartment property she had in the city. I told her to look at every other apartment that was comparable and list it for 30k less. We got 3 people looking to put in offers in a 2 week period. One has already put in an offer pretty close to asking. Sellers holding out are seriously smoking crack. They stand to lose much less money if they drop their price immediately rather than wait out the market.