Out of the factories and onto the roadways, we’re all pavers now.

From NJBiz:

Report: N.J. industrial jobs down 6.4 percent since recession start

Manufacturers’ News Inc. released a report Tuesday showing industrial jobs have shrunk by 6.4 percent in the Garden State since the start of the recession.

The 2010 New Jersey Manufacturers Register, from the Evanston, Ill., publisher, showed 29,568 such jobs have been eliminated since December 2007; the state also lost 548 manufacturers during the period.

Philip Kirschner, president of the New Jersey Business & Industry Association, said though the decline is undesirable, manufacturing in the state has weathered deeper cuts, and “is losing less than it has in previous recessions, as a percentage.”

Manufacturing in New Jersey lost 11,724 jobs for the year ended December 2008, and another 17,844 for the year ended December 2009.

The report listed Newark as the city with the most manufacturing employment in the state, with 12,428 jobs, but that figure is down some 10.5 percent over the two-year period the report covered.

From the APP:

Report: Stimulus netted N.J. 9,800 jobs

The economic stimulus bill President Barack Obama signed into law a year ago created 280,000 jobs nationwide in the transportation construction industry, according to a report released Tuesday by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.

Nearly 9,800 of those jobs were in New Jersey, according to the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee

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507 Responses to Out of the factories and onto the roadways, we’re all pavers now.

  1. grim says:

    From New Jersey Newsroom:

    N.J. state pension and benefits reforms move forward

    New Jersey Senate leaders Tuesday announced that bipartisan legislation to complete the unfinished business of what they describe as reforming the state’s public employee pension and benefits system that begun nearly four years ago was formally introduced Monday night in the upper house.

    The four bills are designed to attempt to return the pension and benefits system to its original goal of ensuring the retirements of rank-and-file public employees and constitutionally require government to meet its annual pension obligations.

    “It is time to face the facts: the pension and benefits system has been pushed to the brink of collapse,” said Senate President Stephen M. Sweeney (D-Gloucester). “Unless we reform the system now, the state will have no option but to break its promise to career public servants.”

    “New Jersey’s pension system is on life support,” said Senate Republican Leader Thomas Kean (R-Union). “If we don’t act now, it will be too late to avoid a crisis that would be costly to both taxpayers and government employees who depend on the system. These are common-sense reforms that have bipartisan support.”

  2. grim says:

    Clot, if you weren’t disgusted enough yesterday, here goes…

    From the Record:

    Lesniak, other insiders got loans at failed bank

    State Sen. Raymond G. Lesniak and five other directors of an Elizabeth bank that collapsed last year borrowed more than $2 million in mortgages and commercial loans from the thrift, records show.

    Some of those loans came after First BankAmericano was put under a July 2007 federal order to stop what authorities described as unsound banking and loan practices.

    In a report filed before it collapsed in July 2009, the bank listed $11.4 million in “insider loans,” a term used by regulators to track financing for bank employees, officers and key shareholders.

    Eight former board members, including Lesniak and several others who got mortgage money from the bank, have also been political contributors to U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, giving more than $50,000 since 1993, according to campaign-finance data.

    On Tuesday, Menendez sought to play down a report in The Wall Street Journal that revealed he tried to intervene in the FDIC’s handling of the First BankAmericano crisis as the bank neared collapse in July 2009.

  3. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Silent Second Lien Risk to RMBS Getting Louder

    Second liens, commonly made in the form of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), are so far a silent hazard to first lien bond holders in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), as many of these investors may not even know if a second lien is tied to their collateral investment.

    And as the press continues to focus on subprime fall-out, strategic default and option ARM resets, experts warn that these “silent second” HELOCs may become a much louder problem, according to converging data from a consumer credit agency and securities research.

    They say that investor claims on the underlying assets are potentially compromised by federally-subsidized modifications of first liens. In the short term, investors of RMBS may see reduced cash flow as the borrower’s second lien debt is piled onto the underwater property, further constricting household finance. Along a longer timeline, the risk of default rises as negative equity increases.

    Once house prices began to fall, the presence of second liens became a major issue to first lien holders. Not only were borrowers increasingly trapped in negative equity positions on first liens, but additional debt from second liens placed all the more financial pressure on performance. Additionally, some RMBS analysts say first lien holders also lacked clarity regarding which first lien assets are also secured by second liens. First lien RMBS investors were not automatically notified when second liens were made on the underlying property.

  4. cooper says:

    “The economic stimulus bill President Barack Obama signed into law a year ago created 280,000 jobs nationwide in the transportation construction industry”

    aren’t these jobs temporary?

  5. freedy says:

    Now where are those jobs created in NJ, besides with the Unions? high paying Hqts.
    i think not.

  6. db says:

    “Out of the factories and onto the roadways, we’re all pavers now” ….do you mean the kind of brick pavers you put down to walk on ?…

  7. freedy says:

    and i would think you will find more and
    more home owners screwing the Banks on their
    HELOC’s

  8. Jim says:

    Hey, is anyone else doing any renovation work on their homes right now? We are having a backroom addition on our old colonial style house in South Jersey fixed up. The roof was reframed and redone, they are putting a small bathroom in, and the kitchen is being redone and oak flooring has been put in. It is costing $80,000 plus the cost of the appliances, but not all that bad for the amount of work they are doing. This back part of the house was a mess because it looks like most of the former work was done without permits and was pretty jacked-up.

  9. MSP says:

    Stu and Gator,

    From the previous thread. Thanks for the info about property tax appeals. My assessment went down and is pretty close to where I think it should be… around 40K more than I paid for the house in early 2002.

  10. grim says:

    do you mean the kind of brick pavers you put down to walk on ?…

    Given that we’ve been walked over by the politicians, the unions, and the banks, maybe that works too.

  11. Shore Guy says:

    “Philip Kirschner,”

    I used to like that show he had in the 70s, Rock Concert. Do any other geezers remember it?

  12. Mr Hyde says:

    Leftwing

    sorry for the messy post last night…

    on your point:
    My point is specifically that the percentage of income earned by any one group relative to another (income disparity) should be irrelevant in an a society where all groups’ incomes are rising on a real basis. I am not arguing the data in the table you present but asserting that the measure itself is irrelevant.

    I see your point but think that there is a point at which income disparity matters.
    perhaps we could debate it over a drink.

    Perhaps you can explain, but i find it interesting that the data set you linked was so different from the trends in the census stats (not an attack, just a question i don’t know the answer to).

  13. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Reversal of fortune

    One in five housing markets entered a second leg of home price declines in late 2009, after showing price increases for nearly half of last year, according to a report released Wednesday by Zillow.com, a real-estate Web site.

    In 29 of the 143 markets tracked by the site — including Boston, Atlanta and San Diego — prices flattened or began to decrease again in the second part of last year, after five or more months of consecutive monthly increases, according to the site’s fourth quarter real-estate market report.

    Nationwide, home values fell 5% in the fourth quarter compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier. Values fell 0.5% from the third quarter of 2009.

    “While we have seen strong stabilization in home values during 2009, there are clear signs that they will turn more negative in the near-term,” said Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, in a news release.

    “What we saw in mid-2009 was a brief respite from a larger market correction that has not yet run its course,” he said.

  14. gary says:

    Shore [11],

    I remember Don Kirschner’s Rock Concert! :) After seeing Uriah Heep, I bought of copy of “Demons and Wizards!”

  15. njescapee says:

    Shore, it was Don K____. no, I don’t remember it.

  16. gary says:

    “What we saw in mid-2009 was a brief respite from a larger market correction that has not yet run its course,” he said.

    Except in Bergen County, because of its proximity to…. Bergen County… and NYC. BTW, I heard it’s sunny in BC this morning, could anyone confirm?

  17. grim says:

    Gary,

    You must have gotten a bad report, I heard that it has been raining dollars all week. No worries though, a good rain will guarantee the money trees bloom come spring.

  18. gary says:

    grim,

    All I know is that Ridgewood is bleeding wealth; a realtor told me so.

  19. serenity now says:

    Anybody see this yet?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sL-zMsRU8Y
    Talk about a CON JOB.

  20. Cindy says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0914378220100210

    Grim @ 13 – This might be from the same Zillow report.

    “One in five U.S. Mortgages “underwater” in Q4- Zillow”

    * Home value bottom expected in second quarter
    * More than 1 in 1,000 homes being foreclosed in Dec.

  21. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    One-Fifth of U.S. Homeowners Owe More Than Properties Are Worth

    More than a fifth of U.S. homeowners owed more than their properties were worth in the fourth quarter as the number of houses and condominiums lost to foreclosure climbed to a record, according to Zillow.com.

    In the fourth quarter, 21.4 percent of owners of mortgaged homes were underwater, up from 21 percent in the previous three months and down from 23 percent in the second quarter, the Seattle-based real estate data provider said today in a report. More than one in 1,000 homes were repossessed by lenders in December, the highest rate in Zillow data dating back to 2000.

    Underwater homes are more likely lost to foreclosure because their owners have a harder time refinancing or selling when they get behind on loan payments. U.S. home values dropped 5 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the 12th straight quarter of year-over-year declines, Zillow said.

    “While the next few months are likely to bring further home value declines in most markets, we do expect to see a national bottom in home prices by the middle of this year,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a statement. “Thereafter, home values are likely to bounce along the bottom with real appreciation remaining negligible for some time.”

  22. grim says:

    Dancing along the bottom…

    Where have I heard that one before?

  23. njescapee says:

    RE report from the US southernmost county. note the reader comments

    Property values may be down
    By TIMOTHY O’HARA Citizen Staff

    A Monroe County official has estimated that Florida Keys property values dropped another 15 percent in the past year, which — if it proves true when the tax rolls are finalized — would be the third consecutive year of declining values.

    Monroe County Assistant Property Appraiser Karl Borglum called the 15 percent a “rough preliminary estimate.” His office will submit a preliminary tax roll to the state by July 1 and the tax roll will be finalized in October, Borglum said.

    Monroe County Budget Director Tina Boan on Tuesday said it was too early to determine the effect on government budgets, as the exact property values need to be confirmed. A 15 percent drop would equate to a $3.3 billion loss in property value countywide, Borglum said.

    A 15 percent decrease in property value would result in about a $10 million drop in revenue for the county and $550,000 for Marathon, if the county and city don’t increase the percentage they levy in property taxes. Key West city budget officials did not return phone calls seeking the same information.

    Marathon Finance Director Peter Rosasco said he anticipated the decline, and the city already is looking at some budget cuts. On Tuesday, he did not want to elaborate on where those could be made.

    “It’s going to be another tough and challenging year for everyone,” Rosasco said. “This will definitely impact the budget. It all depends on how we go about it this year. We will figure out what needs to be done. The key is to do it without diminishing the quality of services we provide.”

    The Broward County Appraiser’s Office on Monday issued a memo to various government agencies warning that property values there have plummeted by an estimated 16 percent, agency spokesman Robert Wolf told The Citizen Tuesday. That office’s preliminary report shows that property values in the city of North Fort Lauderdale have declined by 38 percent and in Deerfield Beach, by 20 percent, Wolf said.

    Property values in Monroe County tanked in 2009 by 16 percent and in 2008 by 18 percent. Despite the grim estimate for a similar decline, Borglum and Key West Realtor Rudy Molinet speculated the Keys real estate market has hit the bottom and should begin to rebound.

    Molinet and others said they have begun to see a greater interest in people buying properties, leading them to believe that buyers think they are now getting the best prices, and that they should buy before property values increase again.

    Molinet, who specializes in resort areas in town, has had a “good January and February,” he said. He has six homes under contract since January, and he had two closings on Tuesday.

    Many of the homes he recently sold have fetched close to the asking price, he said. One Truman Annex home he recently sold was originally listed at $995,000 and the buyer paid $940,000, he said. Another home on Elizabeth Street listed for almost $1.2 million and sold for $1.1 million, he said.

    “Some of the prices were just way too high,” Molinet said. “The ones that have sold were comparable to other sales in the past six months. I understand telling people that they are asking too much is a tough conversation to have.”

    The upside to the market dropping in recent years is that it has allowed local workers in Key West to buy homes, which had not been the case in recent years, Molinet said.

    “That’s terrific,” Molinet said. “For a long time, locals could not buy homes. People who live in our community can now buy homes.”

    tohara@keysnews.com

    What a clown Molinet is. He
    Submitted on Wed, 02/10/2010 – 8:29am
    What a clown Molinet is. He said we reached bottom 2 years ago. He said it again last year. He is saying it again now! Then he has the nerve to say it is good locals can afford homes, when his entire business is about attracting outside speculators and 3rd or 4th home owners to buy here and inflate prices. He is a self serving snake. In other words, a realtor.
    reply Flag as offensive
    Looks like it’s time
    Submitted on Wed, 02/10/2010 – 7:55am
    for another property tax increase.
    reply Flag as offensive
    Cut the budget
    Submitted on Wed, 02/10/2010 – 7:20am
    Marathon needs to cut the budget and not increase taxes, the business owners can not take another hit. This summer I know of a couple of businesses that plan to close as the tax hit is too much.
    reply Flag as offensive
    Time to Lay Off and Reduce the Size Of City and County Govt.
    Submitted on Wed, 02/10/2010 – 4:50am
    STOP SPENDING OUR MONEY

    When property valuations rose our fiscally fearless ‘leaders’ hired and spent every penny of the revenue increases and ran deficits

    It’s time for our cities and county to take a haircut

    Our municipal governments can no longer be used as bubba welfare and the bloated administrations must demand some efficiency from the army of city and county employees

    If you rolled the workforce back we are still bloated because of the automatic raises government gives themselves

    Government produces nothing and is just a burden on the productive

    reply Flag as offensive
    It’s Not Just the Keys Suffering From A Double Dip
    Submitted on Wed, 02/10/2010 – 3:57am
    Just caught this one on A1ANEWS.COM titled “Early signs of a double dip in housing prices”. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/early-signs-of-a-double-dip-in-housing-
    Housing in the Keys, even Ed Swift’s so called “affordable housing” is way out of the grasp of blue collar workers down here. Most workers cannot even afford healthcare. Many blue collar workers are college grads with no source for work in the Keys other than driving taxis, turning beds, schlepping food, mixing drinks. To afford a house down here, prices must drop another 50% for most blue collar employees. We’ll get there as more shadow inventory enters the market. The banks can’t hold on to it forever.

    reply Flag as offensive
    Is it any wonder why property values are down?
    Submitted on Wed, 02/10/2010 – 2:29am
    Key West is turning into a run-of-the-mill hell hole. Corrupt and greedy politicians, high-priced mosquito gassers, crooked educational administration, over-priced homes and taxes, and theivery abound. Yeah…real paradise, eh?
    reply Flag as offensive

  24. gary says:

    “Thereafter, home values are likely to bounce along the bottom with real appreciation remaining negligible for some time.”

    This is incorrect, the NAR said we will see noticeable price appreciation in 2010 and even greater appreciation in 2011.

  25. Shore Guy says:

    “All I know is that Ridgewood is bleeding wealth”

    Is it just me but, usually “bleeding” is not used to convey positive thoughts C.f.:

    Bleeding out

    Stanch the bleeding

  26. freedy says:

    hey wait a minute , dottie herman says its
    time to buy. wonderful bargins.

  27. John says:

    Ridegewood is full of studio G’s, the real playas are in Alpine.

    Ridgewood is like buying a gray market used BMW base model 3 series from a sleezy auto wholesaler on Queens Blvd. and trying to impress the country club set, only ones you are impressing are the clerks in Shoprite.

    Hey Chifi, what do you think of GMAC pulling off a non-govt bond offering, pretty amazing.

    A broker I know says he has GMAC egg all over his face. Several of his clients wanted to buy GMAC bonds back in March at 40 cents on dollar and half told him FU buy them anyhow and half listened to him and bought conservative shrot term stuff. So half his clients are laughing at him and half are mad at him as their stupid one year investment grade stuff is getting near maturity and all he has is stuff with even lower rates. Says he also got burned on AIG. He is mad as anything, I keep giving people “right” advice that turns out to be wrong, this keeps up I will have no clients. For a tall boy and a pretzel I could have gave better financial advice.

  28. 3b says:

    #24 gary:the NAR said we will see noticeable price appreciation in 2010 and even greater appreciation in 2011.

    Did thye really say that? i must abve missed that one. Than again why would I be surprised that they said it?

  29. Cindy says:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201003/jobless-america-future

    A long – depressing article on unemployment from The Atlantic – March 2010

  30. 3b says:

    Didn’t I read somewhere that manufacturing was supposed to lead the economic recovery? I guess not in NJ, maybe Ohio?

  31. d2b says:

    Freedy-
    Not to start WW3, but how are you doing with your cc idea? What is the scope of the cramdown and terms that you are asking for?

    I was screwed by Bank of America in 2008 and I had to swtich business to TD bank in the 11th hour. No love for banks here.

  32. freedy says:

    if your past due, any bank ,, will start at 40%off what you owe, tell them no, and wait
    them out. they are doing the same thing
    with credit cards , that they do with the
    mortgages,,

    take a hit to the credit score, who cares.

    take the cash

    screw the banks,

    BOA, one of the worse, but i guess they are all the same.

    the Consumer is screwed

  33. d2b says:

    Freedy-
    Are you doing this right now with your cards?

  34. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: I don’t know about that broker, but this info is what I can tell you.

    #1 most time brokers are restricted by compliance for selling junk bonds; the AIG stuff wasn’t junk when originally purchased;

    #2 (what you won’t hear) it is a win-win proposition for the client: buy a POS bond and it goes up, you win – if it craps out, you take the broker to arbitration, besmirch his record, and get full remuneration…..the broker was right to tell them to f– off.

    #3 even the clients that told the broker FU, he could have them sign a waiver stating they knew the GMAC bonds were high risk etc., and if they lost anything, they could STILL rook him bad, and some do…why? BECAUSE THEY CAN! and get away with it….just remember that brokers reflect the population at large; there are as many dick clients as there are brokers…

    27.John says:
    February 10, 2010 at 9:04 am
    A broker I know says he has GMAC egg all over his face. Several of his clients wanted to buy GMAC bonds back in March at 40 cents on dollar and half told him FU buy them anyhow and half listened to him and bought conservative shrot term stuff. So half his clients are laughing at him and half are mad at him as their stupid one year investment grade stuff is getting near maturity and all he has is stuff with even lower rates. Says he also got burned on AIG. He is mad as anything, I keep giving people “right” advice that turns out to be wrong, this keeps up I will have no clients. For a tall boy and a pretzel I could have gave better financial advice.

  35. Yikes says:

    glad i got a snowblower this season. thanks for the Ariens tip, Grim.

    This will be its third usage. If you assume $35 to shovel the driveway (we’ve got a big one), then this thing will be paid off in about 5-6 years!

    hopefully, it’ll last for 20.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    Manufacturing IS leading the way…

    out of the nation and to help the recovery in other places.

    Clearly, there is an answer to this problem: More taxes on folks who earn more than $250,000/yr. That’ll show those folks in China and India. So there!

  37. Shore Guy says:

    Humm, storms of Biblical Proportions in DC, and now an earthquake in Chicago. How long before Pat Robertson starts asking to see if B.O. has any numbered tattoos?

  38. meter says:

    “State Sen. Raymond G. Lesniak and five other directors of an Elizabeth bank that collapsed last year borrowed more than $2 million in mortgages and commercial loans from the thrift, records show.”

    Doesn’t matter. As long as that 75k fireman’s salary stays stagnant or increases YoY – inflation adjusted of course – we shouldn’t care.

  39. John says:

    chifi that is why I buy on-line all my junk bonds and only use my broker for high grade bonds, new offerings, stuff they underwrite.

    My broker however will sell me whatever I want as once you have an MBA and are an active trader even in your own account it is tough to win an arbitration case. But his firm won’t put junk in on-line inventory and I don’t like calling him all the time.

    See you August 1st at Capital Grill.

  40. 36 Yikes
    “This will be its third usage. If you assume $35 to shovel the driveway (we’ve got a big one), then this thing will be paid off in about 5-6 years!”

    That’s it? People going around with snow blowers near me want $65-$75 bucks. Maybe you’ll have yours paid off faster then you think.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    “Ariens”

    Great machines.

  42. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    Did you get one of those spiffy reflective road-workers’ vests? Mine has not come in the mail yet.

  43. Cindy says:

    43 Shore – I wear one of those everyday when I take my life into my hands doing “parent pick-up” duty.

    Have a great day all..

  44. Essex says:

    27. John’s got a limp one for 3 series….yet the 5 is the real poseur mobile….won’t handle….won’t accelerate and failed the side impact test. Fail.

  45. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    Whitman and the Pension. Since I was around during this period (1994), let’s remember there was a pension fund SURPLUS that was used to reduce the state income tax. I am not defending the decision, but it was not like the pension fund was running a deficit when the “raid” was made.

  46. Schumpeter says:

    Snow day!

    Villa v Man U

    Spurs v Wolves

    Arsenal v Liverpool

    Inter v Parma

    Knob Creek

    Homemade pizza

    new Guns & Ammo

  47. Schumpeter says:

    1987 (46)-

    IMO, the fact there was a surplus makes the action even more indefensible.

    It’s way more of a sin to squander surpluses than fail because you could never get to break-even. Of course, our politicians are just like us: they never believe the good times will end.

  48. Schumpeter says:

    I got my grenade launcher during good times. Everybody asked me what I wanted it for. Told them it would come in handy someday.

    Of course, not even I believed “someday” would come so soon or suck so bad.

  49. grim says:

    yet the 5 is the real poseur mobile….won’t handle….won’t accelerate and failed the side impact test. Fail.

    I got the smaller engine 528 as a loaner car once. From a fitment perspective, the 5 isn’t an upgrade from a 3 at all, it is just a larger car. The loaner 3 I got the next time around was the better car in my opinion. Handled better, was more comfortable, and wasn’t woefully underpowered. The 135 and 335 really are the most interesting of the bunch.

  50. Essex says:

    I love the power of the Turbo BMW but the HPFP Failure is a real issue with those. my 330 is 50 HP shy of the e90 330…but as a sport model delimited top speed is 150 mph and it kicks ass. Normally aspirated motors last longer.

  51. Essex says:

    John is wrapped up in perception…and image….yet his is myopic. Not surprising really. Listen to him.

  52. Essex says:

    The blind guvnor of NY protests….what a douche. He was never even elected. Pathetic.

  53. Jeff says:

    Yeah its pretty sad to see what is going on. I know its all planned but still doesn’t make it good. A good place I found for news dailyjobcuts . com

  54. grim says:

    Normally aspirated motors last longer.

    Eh. Are you talking internals or just in general? Most turbo motors just end up being pushed more aggressively than their NA variants. Push the timing and compression in the NA to the moon to try to achieve similar output and you’ll likely see equivalent reliability.

    I prefer my motors to be of the boxer arrangement, and turbocharged. Especially with unequal length exhaust manifolds, and a lumpy exhaust note.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    Everyone GTG on 8/1!!!!!!!!
    http://www.thecapitalgrille.com/Locations/NYC-WallSt/Main.asp

    Cindy: please, please, please fly in!!

    John says:
    February 10, 2010 at 9:46 am
    See you August 1st at Capital Grill.

  56. chicagofinance says:

    I just shite my pants……

    check out the offering on the bottom right of the lunch menu….
    http://www.thecapitalgrille.com/menus/WallStreet_Lunch.pdf

  57. Anybody here have any experience applying for Govt (Fed really) jobs and care to share?

  58. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    No Wonder Many Americans Are Pessimistic

    At first glance, today’s report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics that job openings rose 2.6 percent in December from a month earlier could be seen as a positive sign for the labor market, especially considering that official jobless totals have declined for three straight months (through January).

    Since the downturn began, however, the ranks of the unemployed have swelled at a far faster pace than the number of job openings. Back in December 2007, for example, there were 1.8 unemployed workers per opening; at the end of last year, the ratio was 6.1, a jump of nearly 240 percent.

    This dramatic divergence suggests two things: not only are people worried about losing their jobs, they are also concerned that they will have a much harder time finding a new one than before. Given how important a paycheck is to most Americans, no wonder so many remain pessimistic about the outlook.

    http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/02/no-wonder-theyre-pessimistic.html

  59. grim says:

    Anybody here have any experience applying for Govt (Fed really) jobs and care to share?

    I tried to get a job at the NY Fed, didn’t work out.

  60. Safeashouses says:

    #57 chifi

    LMAO

  61. Mr Hyde says:

    Leftwing

    Feel free not to reply, but i cannot let bad data stand.

    You claimed that the AGI for the bottom 50% of earners had not gone down since 1980.

    I used your data source, the Tax Foundation data tables.

    You can only make that claim in NOMINAL terms, and for the period of 1987 – 2007.

    The tax foundation data has the specific comment in the middle of the data table

    Tax Reform Act of 1986 changed the definition of AGI, so data above and below this line not strictly comparable

    this note is for all data prior to 1987, that is for all data from 1980 – 1986, inclusive.

    I plotted the Nominal and “constant 2009$” trends using your AGI source here:
    http://www.scribd.com/full/26672489?access_key=key-1ea38hba05mjbiojlkz9

    this data is approximately equivalent to the Census data in terms of trend. And from what i could find the US Census actually uses portions of the IRS data to compile its income trends

    This data neither supports nor refutes you basic premise regarding the impacts of income disparity, but it directly refutes your claim that there has been no decrease since 1980.

    The only data you could reasonably use to try and take the trend back to 1980 is the US census data.

    One other observation. There is an interesting trend in the income data that ties to housing prices, which i will follow up later today.

    cheers!

  62. Yikes says:

    things to do at home on a snow day like today:

    *read
    *eat
    *download music
    *taxes

    no, shovel isn’t on the list. not with more snow coming later today.

  63. John says:

    I have my X drive 5 series for over a year, I have put 900 miles on it, mostly highway miles. I drive the damm thing at best 12 miles a week, it sits at station all day, I don’t even put it in my driveway at night. I have not even washed it in close to a year. I bought the 5 series X drive as it looks good, gets good gas mileage and when the rare occassion I need to drive to a wedding it fits in. I keep my cars ten to twelve years.So when it hits like 44K on odometer around the year 2022 I will sell it to someone. Paying an extra 15K for a better car is no big deal over 12 years. Plus it came with a great warranty and was mint and I got it wholesale. I wanted a better car but could not rationalize it. Plus my wife harrased me saying if I buy a new high end covertible I needed to sell my Mercedes 450sl convertible. S I went with a lowly 2006 525xi. However, if that is a trainstation car, what the heck is a 3 series?

    Essex says:
    February 10, 2010 at 10:05 am
    27. John’s got a limp one for 3 series….yet the 5 is the real poseur mobile….won’t handle….won’t accelerate and failed the side impact test. Fail.

  64. Mr Hyde says:

    Leftwing

    follow up:

    the average rate of inflation since 1987 on an annual basis is 3.1%

    the average rate of income increase on an annual basis has been 1.5% since 1987.

    YOY% Change for bottom 50% AGI (87-07)
    1.7%
    1.1%
    -0.3%
    -1.6%
    0.2%
    -0.4%
    2.2%
    1.7%
    1.7%
    5.2%
    6.0%
    2.4%
    3.0%
    0.5%
    -0.6%
    -1.1%
    2.1%
    1.0%
    2.2%
    3.2%

    yoy% change for annual inflation 87-07:
    1.7%
    1.1%
    -0.3%
    -1.6%
    0.2%
    -0.4%
    2.2%
    1.7%
    1.7%
    5.2%
    6.0%
    2.4%
    3.0%
    0.5%
    -0.6%
    -1.1%
    2.1%
    1.0%
    2.2%
    3.2%

  65. Mr Hyde says:

    oops… correction

    yoy% change for annual inflation 87-07:
    4.1%
    4.8%
    5.4%
    4.2%
    3.0%
    3.0%
    2.6%
    2.8%
    3.0%
    2.3%
    1.6%
    2.2%
    3.4%
    2.8%
    1.6%
    2.3%
    2.7%
    3.4%
    3.2%
    2.8%

  66. PGC says:

    Prestigious BC snowthrowers, pay for themselves in 2-3 years.

  67. PGC says:

    My boss bought a used 528. Drove it a week and then took the hit and traded it back to the dealer for a 540.

  68. Jim says:

    I have a 2000 BMW 3 series that I bought new. It has 220,000 kilometers on it and still runs great. The 5 series in my view was a lot more money with very little additional benefit. Plus since the 3 series is not as big it is easier to park.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    With this on the menu, the two following dishes become substantially less appetizing…
    Vidalia Onion Rings

    Fresh Asparagus with Hollandaise
    Fresh Creamed Spinach

  70. Mikeinwaiting says:

    No shoveling, no snow blowers, guy plows & salts my driveway for 30 bucks. Great to live in the sticks sometimes.About 110 ft with parking for 2 more cars at end plus entrance to 3 car garage. Even shovels in front of doors where plow can’t reach. You would not want to try this driveway with a snow blower. To good a deal to even consider doing myself.

  71. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Chi 70 Have a shot at John showing with that on the menu. The hole is already cut out, it’s ready to go John.

  72. John says:

    That is a slow pos. At auction I could have bought a 2007 STS V series with 8k miles for train station. I told my wife with a top speed of 200 miles an hour we could drive to Disney World in four hours. Plus the one mile to train at 200 miles and hour would be only 16 seconds instead of the nearly two minutes it takes me now. Just the fact I could drive to hollywood 15 hours in that baby turned me on. The damm 540 is lucky to hit 140. Only trouble when driving in to city I would have to hit brakes by queens border to stop in time for toll booth on midtown tunnel. But driving 20 miles to jets game would only be a 6 minute drive. The world would be great with a five passenger 200 mph car. Although having car seats in a two hundred mile per hour car with five cup holders would be weird.

    PGC says:
    February 10, 2010 at 11:45 am
    My boss bought a used 528. Drove it a week and then took the hit and traded it back to the dealer for a 540.

  73. New in NJ says:

    John (73)

    Awww, come on, man. When I lived in Germany in the mid-1990s I had an MB C220 that would do a solid 240 km/h. But it wouldn’t do that in top gear (ran out of hp before topping out), and it took a while to get it to spin up.
    The next year I got an E280 (I worked for a Daimler joint venture, so got a new car every year), and it would do about 245 km/h, again by dropping it a gear.
    You can’t tell me that a 540 can’t outrun that.

  74. John says:

    I have no clue what a KM/h is, I live in America. You krouts like to brag about 200 KM but I think that is like 60 miles per hour.

  75. New in NJ says:

    But the most amazing thing about driving that fast is how long it takes to slow the thing down.

    Occasionally when running wide open you’ll see a tractor trailer pull out to pass a 2CV, and you’re closing on those things at twice the legal speed limit in most of the USA. Sure snaps you to attention.

  76. New in NJ says:

    John, look at your speedometer and you’ll see both metrics.

    100 km/h = 62 mph

    240 km/h = approx 140 mph

    245 km/h = approx 143 mph

  77. New in NJ says:

    …and I’m not a kraut. I grew up in Alabama. I’ve got liquid red mud where most people have blood.

  78. Mikeinwaiting says:

    New 76 That is why I don’t go that fast. Good way to buy the farm , no need. Sure I could get my new one up to 140 but why.

  79. Essex says:

    A 3 series is a car that will actually take a corner. 5 series are great for fat ass cube dwelling douchebags like you johnny.

  80. Shore Guy says:

    So, one in five mortgages are underater and half of all homes have mortgages (is that right?), so, it looks like 90% of homeowners are fine. After adding in renters, it becomes clear that there is an awful lot of money and attention being lavished on a small percentage of households.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    New in NJ:

    “You got mud in your wheel.”

  82. Shore Guy says:

    It is about time:

    “The Federal Reserve could begin pulling back its unprecedented stimulus for the U.S. economy by first removing some cash from the financial system and then raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.

    The U.S. central bank has pumped more than $1 trillion into the economy after it slashed benchmark rates to near zero to combat the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

    [snip]

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/35326630

  83. joyce says:

    (81)
    the reason for all the attention is when banks, et al, are all leveraged at at least 10:1 then when more than 10% are in default… every bank is insolvent

    much more complicated than that, but i’m tired

  84. New in NJ says:

    Mike-

    I wouldn’t even think of driving that fast in the USA. Too much free-form driving here.

    In Germany everybody goes to driving school, and everybody learns to drive the same way, so driving behavior is predictable. Bad drivers get taken out of the pool fairly quickly either by fatal accident or losing ones license.

    And getting a driver’s license is expensive. Including school, testing fees and the license itself you’re probably in it for $1500 to $2000. It was funny to see all of the arrogant Americans think that they could jump past the school directly to the test. After failing two or three $200 tests they would decide that maybe school wouldn’t be such a bad investment.

  85. Essex says:

    81. No sh*t….freakin media. A lot of attention when the folks who bought at the top of the bubble feel taken.

  86. Essex says:

    I honed my driving skills on the backroads of Kentucky…..fun stuff.

  87. Shore Guy says:

    joyce,

    instead of propping up insolvent banks, and bailing out folks who scr-ew-ed up, I say the fed identifies an insolvent bank, creates a new “shadow bank” fully capitalized, and shifts all the old bank’s deposits and performing assets to the new one, and then let the old one fail. It goes poof, the shareholders get hammered, the managers lose their jobs, unless the new bank is insane enough to hire them.

    I am not suggesting letting the banking system fail, only that any bail-out money go to opening new institutions instead of throwing good money after bad trying to rehab the ones responsible for the collapse.

  88. Shore Guy says:

    Did anyone else hear that DC and MD have decided that it is “too dangerous” to plow? Time to subcontract with some Toronto firm. Or, keep it in the USA and hire Buffalo to do the job.

  89. PGC says:

    This storm will probably bailout a guy I know in town. He will be ploughing all day and should clear a fair scratch. He recently has had his hours at work cut. It wasn’t a suprise as they knew it was coming. His wife used to tutor and worked one or two days a week as things were always tight.

    Here is the kicker she was a teacher in NY schools, but hasn’t been back since she went out on her first maternity leave. She didn’t go straight back as they went for number two. So this year they had to make a decision. Go back to her job in the NY schools or go for a third child and lose the 8 years she has in and her tenure. Can you guess whos pregnant?

  90. jcer says:

    The worst BMW of all is the 7 series, bloated style, not terribly fun to drive, just an all around blah car. No style or class like a Mercedes S-Class or Jag and not really a sports car either. 528 is a weak car, the 3 series coupe or the M3 is fun. Sleekness, the look of the cars, and all wheel drive system make Audi a superior car.

  91. New in NJ says:

    Shore-

    The “too dangerous” thing might have something to do with the depth of the snow combined with the lack of signs / flags marking obstructions like fire hydrants.

    Just guessing.

  92. Mikeinwaiting says:

    New 85 Might like to open her up on nice stretch of 287 during a time of very low traffic. That would be with a police officer friend riding shotgun, no tickets that way. Otherwise just enjoy the ride, handling & great pickup. picked up a new VW CC love it,4 cyl turbo.

  93. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Essex 80 Not holding back today are we.

  94. PGC says:

    Faber just dropped “All these Gvmts will default including the US” on CNBC. Lots of gasps and Whoa! from the heads.

  95. leftwing says:

    “I see your point but think that there is a point at which income disparity matters.”

    My biggest issue with focus on income disparity is the same as I have with the fixation on ‘banksters’. They are both straw man arguments to deflect real blame for the rapidly declining standard of living from the government, federal and local, to an easier target using emotion, envy, and class warfare as tools.

    In a rising per capita real wage scenario, who cares about income disparity? It should not matter, provided there are not outside forces that devalue those earnings. Standards of living would be increasing with rising wages, as they should.

    Problem is now despite rising real incomes the standard of living has deteriorated rapidly. This deterioration has occurred, if you will, ‘below the line’ of personal earnings, in the ‘expense’ lines of every household. What caused this, since we have already adjusted for inflation?

    Basically, the totally incompetent fiscal, tax, and monetary policies of the government(s) have screwed the pooch.

    Governments (i.e. the aggregation of politicians seeking re-election regularly) are thus faced with two choices:

    1. Come clean. “You, the citizen, have kept your side of the social contract. You have worked hard, increased your earnings, and have every right to expect the increased savings and security that should accompany your actions. We, your elected officials, however, have pursued reckless monetary and spending policies that have frittered away your money at such an extraordinary rate that the increased earnings from all your hard work not only no longer exist but have actually indebted you beyond any reasonable capability to repay. Therefore, you now have to accept a lower standard of living. Sorry”

    Or

    2. “It is an affront to our great democracy and a challenge to the very foundation of our way of life that these huge disparities in income exist. Any civilized society cannot function, let alone thrive, when one segment of the population takes so much from others.” Wink, wink…”These barons stripping your wealth away from you are doing it not only by taking your rightful earnings, but they are also the same ones responsible for the debacle that caused your largest asset to become not only worthless, but a huge liability to you.”

    Which lever do you think they are going to pull?

    Which one, emotion aside, do you rationally think is closer to the truth?

    Meter, this is for you at 39 as well. The fact that emotion is blinding your realization that we agree on the common enemy underscores my point.

    But let’s all keep focusing on the banksters, bonuses, and class warfare while nothing changes in DC or statehouses. Option 2, baby. Right where they want you.

  96. jcer says:

    Mike, a great car and a great eninge, I just hope you leased it. VW is not a car to own after the warranty, too many things to break(Mechanic told me very engineered, very complicated systems, parts are expensive and remving things is a lot of work) and repairs are at the top of it’s class(i.e as expensive as mercedes/BMW not like Honda, Toyota, gm, ford). The car will get you to 75k miles in 4-5 years without trouble but most of my friends who bought vw’s regret it because while the car will keep running, the cost of keeping it running is insane.

  97. chicagofinance says:

    For JJ: John Mayer….

    John Mayer kisses, tells then draws visual aids

    If Hollywood is like a high school (as many celebrities have claimed) then John Mayer is the hot band geek popular girls sleep with under the auspices of anonymity. But as it turns out, John’s not only president of the band club, but also the AV Squad and has secretly recorded your trysts with plans to broadcast them on the school’s CCTV system. Unfortunately for all the women non-metaphorical John has slept with, his version of the school’s PA system is in the pages of Rolling Stone and Details Magazines. Now turning to Playboy to get a couple more stories out there. This time, his head cheerleader target is Jessica Simpson. “Sexually it was crazy,” he saysin the March issue. “It was like napalm, sexual napalm. Did you ever say, ‘I want to quit my life and just f***ing snort you? If you charged me $10,000 to f*** you, I would start selling all my s*** just to keep f***ing you.'” Not quite as eloquent as “something ’bout the way your hair falls in your face/I love the shape you take when crawling toward the pillowcase,” but I’m sure with the right death metal backing track, “I want to quit my life and just f***ing snort you” could be a hit! Sidenote: Am I the only one shocked that Jessica is wild in bed? Guess those 22 years of pent up sexual frustration haven’t dissipated over the last nine. What’s most interesting to me is that while John has no problem dishing out the dirtiest details of his relationship with Jessica, he uses much more respectful, reverent terms when talk turns to his other high-profile fun-buddy, Jennifer Aniston. In addition to denying that Twitter broke them up and admitting that he will always love her, John also gets upset thinking about Jen reading the article. “I’m now thinking about how bad I would feel if she read this and was like, ‘Why are you putting me in an article where you’re talking about someone else? I don’t want to be in your lineage of kiss-and-tells.'” Well, I’d hate to see how Jen reacts to this next passage. Later in the piece, the topic naturally turns to John’s inherent douchebaggery, which he defends by saying, “I come on very strong. I am a very … I’m just very. V-E-R-Y. That’s why black people love me.” So following this train of logic, the interviewer asks if black women throw themselves at him. John replies (and I kid you not), “I don’t think I open myself to it. My d*** is sort of like a white supremacist. I’ve got a Benetton heart and a f***in’ David Duke c***. I’m going to start dating separately from my d***.” Yeah, but even if John distanced himself from the appendage, I believe anyone who dates the musician will always be going out with a d***. Photo: WireImage

    * PRINT
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    February 10, 2010 ι Jarett Wieselman

    If Hollywood is like a high school (as many celebrities have claimed) then John Mayer is the hot band geek popular girls sleep with under the auspices of anonymity. But as it turns out, John’s not only president of the band club, but also the AV Squad and has secretly recorded your trysts with plans to broadcast them on the school’s CCTV system.

    Unfortunately for all the women non-metaphorical John has slept with, his version of the school’s PA system is in the pages of Rolling Stone and Details Magazines. Now turning to Playboy to get a couple more stories out there. This time, his head cheerleader target is Jessica Simpson.

    “Sexually it was crazy,” he says in the March issue. “It was like napalm, sexual napalm. Did you ever say, ‘I want to quit my life and just f***ing snort you? If you charged me $10,000 to f*** you, I would start selling all my s*** just to keep f***ing you.'”

    Not quite as eloquent as “something ’bout the way your hair falls in your face/I love the shape you take when crawling toward the pillowcase,” but I’m sure with the right death metal backing track, “I want to quit my life and just f***ing snort you” could be a hit!

    Sidenote: Am I the only one shocked that Jessica is wild in bed? Guess those 22 years of pent up sexual frustration haven’t dissipated over the last nine.

    What’s most interesting to me is that while John has no problem dishing out the dirtiest details of his relationship with Jessica, he uses much more respectful, reverent terms when talk turns to his other high-profile fun-buddy, Jennifer Aniston.

    In addition to denying that Twitter broke them up and admitting that he will always love her, John also gets upset thinking about Jen reading the article. “I’m now thinking about how bad I would feel if she read this and was like, ‘Why are you putting me in an article where you’re talking about someone else? I don’t want to be in your lineage of kiss-and-tells.'”

    Well, I’d hate to see how Jen reacts to this next passage.

    Later in the piece, the topic naturally turns to John’s inherent douchebaggery, which he defends by saying, “I come on very strong. I am a very … I’m just very. V-E-R-Y. That’s why black people love me.” So following this train of logic, the interviewer asks if black women throw themselves at him.

    John replies (and I kid you not), “I don’t think I open myself to it. My d*** is sort of like a white supremacist. I’ve got a Benetton heart and a f***in’ David Duke c***. I’m going to start dating separately from my d***.”

    Yeah, but even if John distanced himself from the appendage, I believe anyone who dates the musician will always be going out with a d***.

  98. Essex says:

    Sorry….sometimes I forget where I am.

  99. Mr Hyde says:

    Leftwing

    good points about emotional distraction.

    I agree with clot. Burn it all to the ground. There are no innocents

  100. Essex says:

    After the bimmer goes I am on to american iron…..Camaro! I wanna be 17 again.

  101. Shore Guy says:

    As Robespierre once said:

    “The Mob. Where is it going? I must find out, for I am their leader.”

    It sounds like the kind of leadership we get from Capitol Hill and too many statehouses.

  102. db says:

    Al Gore has a bone to pick wit U guy’s …news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100210/hl_time/08599196229400

  103. John says:

    So STS V goes 345 KM, not bad. I love the new camaro, wait till the convt comes out. Makes me long for old 67 Firebird Convt with the 400 ci engine, B&M rachet shifter, posi rear, G-60s and triple leaf springs. Damm near wanted to pull it out and spank it that was so fun to drive.

  104. Schumpeter says:

    grim (60)-

    Their background check on you must’ve been a howler. Can’t imagine what the synopsis of your “friends and associates” read like.

    “I tried to get a job at the NY Fed, didn’t work out.”

  105. Schumpeter says:

    mike (71)-

    Hell, for $30 that guy would probably shoot and oven-ready dress a raccoon for you. With a little pineapple ring over each eye.

  106. Essex says:

    I test drove the new Camaro…Loved it. Cept the roof is too short for anyone over 6′ The convertible will be a great ride.

  107. Schumpeter says:

    I would never buy a GM car. They are all now built on the broken back of the rule of law.

  108. Schumpeter says:

    And, I bet they all are filled with latent defects and cheap accessories.

  109. Essex says:

    Maybe I will opt for a Mustang then….I dunno.

  110. Schumpeter says:

    In fact, I think the next car I buy will be a BMW or Benz.

    Even though I’m not a car person. I at least get the feeling those two companies build something decent and are not r@ping the world in order to keep doing business.

  111. Essex says:

    I am clearly regressing….the BMW just says mature adult…completely wrong for me.

  112. Essex says:

    I should just pick an old seventies bronco or squareback VW up for cheap.!

  113. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    “The floating exchange system as it now exists is going be folded. We are moving toward a one Western world currency, and one Western world central bank of central banks. Because all Western world federal budget deficits are out of control and there is no PRACTICAL method to reverse this condition in the foreseeable future, there is no other alternative. That means the two major Western World currencies will be Gold and the SDR (type entity). “

  114. Schumpeter says:

    sx (112)-

    Dunno. I had a car crazy pal who rigged up a BMW with a gizmo that shot nitrous oxide into some stage of the exhaust before it hit the turbo (whatever the hell that means), turned the whole trunk into a giant gas tank, rigged up the suspension so the whole car got into this wedgy kind profile when it was going really fast and had what looked like submarine radar rigged up in the glove compartment.

    He used to take me out on the interstate late at night & it was like being in a Saturn rocket.

  115. Schumpeter says:

    al (114)-

    IMO, that’s a no-brainer call. Much harder is nailing the value of gold at that point and the composition of the SDR basket.

    Also, he should couple his prediction with a guess at how many millions will have died at the point when the new currency rises.

  116. Essex says:

    Crazy! They do really well at high speed. The camaro feels like a really powerful yet somewhat dangerous car to go fast in…the bimmer inspires confidence at speed. My wheels have been beaten to crap on these road though. Heck I am ‘stuck’ with it forever…at least it has comfortable seats.

  117. Essex says:

    I guess I should apologize for calling John a douche…though something tells me it is not the first time he has heard that.

    He probably has more imagination in his big toe than most people have in their entire bodies.

  118. Shore Guy says:

    “And, I bet they all are filled with latent defects and cheap accessories”

    Naw, backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, man.” GM cars are as rock-solid as the U.S. Dollar and Treasury debt.

  119. Shore Guy says:

    “He probably has more imagination in his big toe than most people have in their entire bodies.”

    Not to worry, penicillin will take care of that.

  120. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Jcer 97 leased,39 months, 48k miles upped from 36,warranty extended to cover, free maintenance.

  121. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot 106 You get that after 10 plows.

  122. New in NJ says:

    Essex 101 –

    If you take good care of it, it might be a while before that BMW gives up. My 1997 328is is approaching 179K miles now, and it still runs great.

    All I have to do to appreciate it all over is to spend a week in a rental somewhere.

  123. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Are Home Prices Headed for a Double-Dip

    by: Tim Iacono FA new report by Zillow shows that mid-2009 home price gains are increasingly turning into home price declines and that some major markets may soon see a dreaded “double-dip”.

    Here’s the summary graphic that just adds more fuel to the debate about whether home prices are now rising or falling and what the year ahead holds.
    IMAGE Recall that the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index from a few weeks ago showed that the month-to-month gains have eased and may already be reversing as index co-creator Robert Shiller has gone on record saying he thinks home prices are headed back down.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/187846-are-home-prices-headed-for-a-double-dip

  124. Essex says:

    I hope so! It’s an 06 with about 37k on it….BMW actually put a brand new head on her at 17k when I threw a valve and they really did a nice job she runs really, really well. I love winding it out.

  125. Mikeinwaiting says:

    More

    While we’ve had a brief respite in mid-2009 from home value declines in many markets, the larger market correction has still not fully run its course. The recent stabilization owed a lot to policy support in the form of tax credits, lower mortgage rates and increased Federal Housing Administration lending. The remaining correction in home values we’ll see in the first half of this year is a function of market fundamentals, such as the increasing flow of foreclosures, high levels of inventory in the market and a probable decrease in demand as the impact of the tax credit wanes and mortgage rates rise.

    While the next few months are likely to bring further home value declines in most markets, we do expect to see a national bottom in home prices by the middle of this year. Thereafter, home values are likely to bounce along the bottom with real appreciation remaining negligible for some time. This sustained period of languid real estate performance will really constitute the final leg of the housing downturn, as our possibilities are either sharper depreciation now followed by a sharper rebound off the bottom, or modest depreciation now followed by a long period of minimal appreciation. Either path results in home values getting to the same level ultimately in real, inflation-adjusted terms. The second path appears more likely at this point.

  126. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Opinions.

    This sustained period of languid real estate performance will really constitute the final leg of the housing downturn, as our possibilities are either sharper depreciation now followed by a sharper rebound off the bottom, or modest depreciation now followed by a long period of minimal appreciation.

  127. Barbara says:

    “While the next few months are likely to bring further home value declines in most markets, we do expect to see a national bottom in home prices by the middle of this year.”

    statements like these make me nuts. Can’t make that credible until you talk about shadow inventory.

  128. Yikes says:

    it is snowing so heavily in Bucks County, that if i lived in a Toll Brothers community, I couldn’t see my neighbor’s house! (even though i could touch it)

  129. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Geopolitical Thoughts: A World on the Brink
    This past weekend, world finance ministers and politicians from the recently-declared deceased G7 group of world powers met in the remote Canadian town of Iqaluit, capital and largest community of the northeastern Canadian territory Nunavut. Remote doesn’t come close to describing how out of the way this meeting is.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/187504-geopolitical-thoughts-a-world-on-the-brink

    Shore you out there,thoughts?

  130. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Barb 128 Read that part thought Ok another bottom called, knew are group wouldn’t buy it. Agree.

  131. Firestormik says:

    Just came back from a liquer store. Besides plowing trucks met probably 5 scared drivers doing 15MPH and it’s not even icy. So funny

  132. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Yikes bad but not as bad as closer suburbs here in Vernon. Seems the really heavy stuff is not getting this far north west.

  133. Mr Hyde says:

    Leftwing

    You left a little off of oneof your options from post 96

    1. Come clean. “You, the citizen, have kept your side of the social contract. You have worked hard, increased your earnings, and have every right to expect the increased savings and security that should accompany your actions. We, your elected officials, however, have pursued reckless monetary and spending policies that have frittered away your money at such an extraordinary rate that the increased earnings from all your hard work not only no longer exist but have actually indebted you beyond any reasonable capability to repay. Therefore, you now have to accept a lower standard of living. Sorry”, Now what time am I scheduled for the guillotine?

  134. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Firestormik Stocked up yesterday 1.75 of Scotch. Thinking about pouring one hell it is after 3

  135. John Mayer says:

    even though I referred my pen!s as David Duke, i still wouldn’t have relations with an onion.

    http://is.gd/86B7C

  136. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ket How is the snow by you ,home?
    Saw some pretty heavy stuff on the radar in your area. I am just outside of it so far.

  137. Kimmy says:

    Time to wake up people, now is not the time to be scared.
    http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

  138. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    116.

    Regarding gold price. Who knows, JP Morgan is shorting the sh#t out of it right now. Dollar will probably bust through the 74 mark next time. Im not trying to make money I am trying to preseve it.

    SDR’s. IMO who cares about the composition its just a global fiat currency. If it isnt backed by something why would anyone trust it. A 10-20% peg to gold would be nice.

    Regarding death toll. It wont be measured in millions. It will be measured in billions if we want to maintain our current lifestyle. Otherwise the PWTB can settle for 2-3 billion of us slaves if we dont mind being in poverty.

    Im more worried about a cashless money system. That would be a real problem.

  139. Schumpeter says:

    sx (87)-

    Are you one of the Dukes of Hazzard?

    “I honed my driving skills on the backroads of Kentucky”

  140. Schumpeter says:

    Yet another shining example of the US taxpayer’s underwriting of infinite loss:

    “McLean-based mortgage giant Freddie Mac is purchasing substantially all mortgage loans delinquent at least 120 days from the company’s related participation certificate securities, the company announced Wednesday.

    Freddie Mac’s (NYSE: FRE) purchase of the loans, which include fixed rate and adjustable rate mortgages, should be reflected in the participation certificate (PC) factor report published March 4. The corresponding principal payments would be passed through to fixed-rate and adjustable rate mortgage PC holders on March 15 and April 15, respectively, the company said.

    The company is making the purchases because the cost of guarantee payments to security holders, including advances of interest at the security coupon rate, exceeds the cost of holding the nonperforming loans in the company’s investment portfolio, the company said.

    One reason it’s less expensive to buy the loans than guarantee them: the company adopted a new accounting standard Jan. 1 for the transfer of financial assets and the consolidation of variable interest entities, the company said.

    The delinquent loan purchases also will help Freddie Mac preserve capital and reduce any additional draws from the U.S. Department of Treasury. The purchases would not affect the company’s activities under the Making Home Affordable Program, the company said.

    To date, Freddie Mac has drawn $51 million from the Treasury. Some lawmakers have called for Freddie Mac and its sister company District-based Fannie Mae to be scrapped in favor of a new mortgage financing system.”

    http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2010/02/08/daily48.html

  141. Schumpeter says:

    Chelsea loses, ManU draws, Arsenal beats Liverpool and crawls back into the EPL race.

    Best season ever, in the best league ever.

  142. PGC says:

    #143 Clot

    Great day for me. A six point cushion for Champions League next year and apart from City a fairly easy last set of fixtures.

    ManU v Chelsea should be the game of the season. A six pointer a home that they must win.

  143. Justin says:

    Man City! Let’s get a top 4 and bring in Mourinho already :-)

  144. Schumpeter says:

    Jesus will never manage City. Next move is to Old Trafford.

    Can’t wait to see Mourniho v Mancini in those derby games.

  145. Schumpeter says:

    John Terry being given “time off” after getting lit up by Saha today.

    He better make sure his wife can’t get her hands on any golf clubs, or it won’t be a nice vacation.

  146. Schumpeter says:

    PGC (144)-

    Chelsea can take ManU at Old Trafford. Also think the CL final will be Barca-Chelsea. This year, Chelsea won’t park the bus.

  147. Essex says:

    141. More Bo than Luke….but Jewish. GO figger.

  148. Justin says:

    I was hoping Mourinho would join City instead of Mancini. He is a top notch manager and I would hate to play against him.

  149. Essex says:

    136. I understand John Mayer. His little soldier just wants to punish aryan women.

  150. PGC says:

    #148 Clot

    Chelsea could take them, but that is a 94th minute winner by some 17yo wunderkid type of game.

  151. Outofstater says:

    China January Loans Surge, Property Prices Climb At Faster Pace

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU0tvaz1SPA0&pos=1

    So, did these guys not hear about the real estate bubble elsewhere? Funny, it was in all the papers.

  152. chicagofinance says:

    WSJ
    THE COUNT
    FEBRUARY 8, 2010
    Soccer Referees Hate the Tall Guys

    Many of soccer’s greatest players have been small fries. Diego Maradona is only 5’5″. Lionel Messi (pictured) is 5’7″. Pele towers over both of them at 5’8″. According to new research, these little guys have, in addition to their superhuman quickness and skill, an extra advantage: Shrimps get all the calls.

    Niels van Quaquebeke and Steffen R. Giessner, researchers at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, compiled refereeing data from seven seasons of the German Bundesliga and the UEFA Champions League, as well as three World Cups (123,844 fouls in total), and showed that on average the perpetrators of fouls were about one-third of an inch taller than the victims. When two players were involved in illicit contact, the referee was more likely to call an infraction against the taller guy, especially as the height difference increased. When the disparity was relatively small, less than two inches, the smaller players got the call 52% of the time. But when one player had at least 3.9 inches on the other, the taller one was whistled about 59% of the time.

    The researchers admit that taller players could just be bigger, stronger, and more likely to foul, but they also argue that an unconscious bias is involved in the referee’s decisions. To strengthen the claim, they performed an additional study in which sports fans were shown pictures of players of differing heights running toward the ball and were told that one of them ended up on the ground. When the smaller player hit the turf, fans were more likely to assume that he hadn’t taken a dive but had been fouled Austin Kelley

    Height Bias?
    A new study shows that when two soccer players are involved in a collision, the taller player is more likely to get called for the foul.

    HEIGHT DIFFERENCE PROBABILITY OF FOUL AGAINST TALLER PLAYER
    1-5 cm 52.0%
    6-10 cm 55.4%
    > 10 cm 58.8%
    Avg. Height of Perpetrator Avg. Height of Victim
    182.4 cm 181.5 cm

  153. leftwing says:

    Devils really suck. And they have no heart. Can’t believe I drove there tonight to see…whatever.

    Ket, I’ll trust your numbers.

    When’s the next GTG before the onionfest?

  154. Schumpeter says:

    chi (154)-

    What a bunch of horseshit. Centre-backs, fullbacks and holding mids commit the majority of fouls. Rarely do short players man these positions (the only really short centre-back that comes to mind is Cannavaro, who compensates with about a 36″ vertical leap). Players trying to dispossess in open play get whistled for the majority of fouls, and those are bigger guys trying to rake the ball away from the smaller ones…or deliver deliberate fouls to stop counterattacks.

    Perhaps the study is useful in the case of 50-50 balls, but two players charging a 50-50 all out is not a gigantic part of the game.

  155. sas says:

    now, what would happen if George W. Omama said such things?

    “Obama Doesn’t ‘Begrudge’ Bonuses for Blankfein, Dimon”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKGZkktzkAlA&pos=1

  156. sas says:

    its time some of you blokes out there wake up and smell the Folgers coffee. ain’t a dime difference btw a republican or democrat.

    Don King owns them both.

    SAS

  157. Schumpeter says:

    If I had enough money, I’d have a hit squad on call.

  158. Schumpeter says:

    Mock Argentina all you want, but personal armies and henchmen rock.

  159. sas says:

    “If I had enough money, I’d have a hit squad on call”

    depends on how you define money…

    SAS

  160. Schumpeter says:

    Marc Faber…first declares all gubmints will end up defaulting, then bitch-slaps Dennis Kneale into next week. Gotta love it:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fabers-bold-prediction-both-us-and-europe-will-default-their-debt

  161. Schumpeter says:

    sas (161)-

    My definition of money does extend to gold, silver and drugs.

  162. cobbler says:

    Slumburbia
    By TIMOTHY EGAN

    LATHROP, Calif. — Drive along foreclosure alley, through new planned communities that look like tile-roofed versions of a 21st century ghost town, and you see what happens when people gamble with houses instead of casino chips.

    Dirty flags advertise rock-bottom discounts on empty starter mansions. On the ground, foreclosure signs are tagged with gang graffiti. Empty lots are untended, cratered with mud puddles from the winter storms that have hammered California’s San Joaquin Valley.

    http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/10/slumburbia/

  163. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    You guys think you are prepared for SHTF. Check out this guy.

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  164. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    from woot…. hmmm seems familiar….

    Push Comes To Shovel
    Yeah, I moved your stupid lawn chair. I don’t care who dug the parking space out. It’s a public street.

    What, a little snow piles up and I lose my rights as a taxpayer? No, my car’s staying right here until I’m damn good and ready to move it. You had to dig your car out to go somewhere anyway. And you better not so much as smudge my windshield in retaliation. Because the second anybody lays a hand on my property, I take my little friend here out of my pocket, and things get serious.

    Whoa! Whoa! Who said anything about guns? I was talking about my Kodak C190 digital camera. With its 12MP resolution, 5x optical zoom, and 2.7” LCD, it’s perfect for documenting acts of vandalism for use in future court proceedings. Maybe I’d catch you in the act in 30fps, 640×480 VGA video. Maybe I’d use the panorama features to stitch together a full-surround tableaux of the devastation your key wreaked on my paint job. Don’t try to get away with it under cover of darkness, either. These streetlights offer plenty of light for the 1600 ISO setting.

    Now, are you gonna run along and find somewhere else to park, or do I have to get into the in-camera image enhancing and editing functions? Hey, put that hose away. Stop it – stop spraying my car! Are you nuts? I don’t want your “free car wash”! The wind chill’s like 16 below! My car’s going to be covered in a sheet of… impenetrable… ice…

    OK. Fine. You win. I’ll move. The spot’s all yours. Enjoy it. But if you think I’ll forget this, you’re crazy, Mom.

    sl

  165. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:
  166. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Wow!! Wanna freak yourself out?

    Go back to blog entries from ’05 ’06

    It’s like a bad acid trip! Wow..

    Does skep-tic still exist? Who the hell was Grim Ghost?? Chifi is there… and NJGal.

    sl (and grim used to sign his posts with a jb or a grim at the end)

  167. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    how bout this one??

    Metroplexual says:
    March 1, 2006 at 2:55 pm

    Chi-Fi,

    If you had six figures saved sitting in an account getting 4.6 %. What would you do?

    WTF??? 4.6%?????

    sl

  168. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    who could forget this??

    #
    Anonymous says:
    August 31, 2006 at 6:28 pm

    “Better take another Ambien and keep dreaming, Bob”

    Hey there big guy you sound like one of those sour puss Starving realtors getting a little cranky. Rememeber quite a few of those cranky harassing types back in 1992-1994 when I vultured some primo assets.
    So keep up the chatter little cranky no commish this month realtor.

    Tsunami wave 2 is approaching and you ain’t seen any PAIN yet.

    Going to BLEED’EM DRY WHEN THIS SUCKA HITS ROCK BOTTOM. Next March should really get ugly…really ugly. Notttt’ing selling no commish a depression for these lousy grubbers.

    BABABABA

    BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob
    #
    Anonymous says:
    August 31, 2006 at 6:31 pm

    Starting to smack the old lips waiting for a few luxury assets…cars…motorcycles…toys to vulture from a few dummies begging for a sale.

    Keep begging slugs cuz my price keeps dropping. I am going to beed every friggen concession from you til you try to just hand it over.

    This is going to be fun like the old days….bleeding the dummies Dry. And they earned the pain themselves.
    BABABABABA

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

    sl

  169. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    holy shit…..

    didn’t expect this:

    SAS says:
    October 31, 2006 at 10:15 pm

    Is John Kerry really that stupid?

    SAS

    sl

  170. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Must be Clot:

    UnRealtor says:
    October 31, 2006 at 11:30 pm

    “But as usual on this site, conservative venom and pile-on idiocy stands as the only kind of politic venom not qualified, not repudiated, not pulled from the responses. Get a life, Unrealtor.”

    LOL, no doubt the hypocrisy of your comment is lost.

    If you have some evidence to refute one of my posts, provide it. Otherwise, you’re just pissing into the wind.

    sl

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  172. tbiggs says:

    #8 Jim –

    Yep, added a kitchen and dining room. Our cost is in the same ballpark as yours. We’re in Bucks County PA, the rules and regulations aren’t as crazy as those in NJ. We had some of the same issues with old crappy construction; wanted to use the foundation part of a former addition, but most of the cinder blocks fell off when they pulled up the sill boards! Then we had all that crazy weather in Nov/Dec.

    But the kitchen is this >< close to being done, and it was all worth it.

    No granite countertops (seems everybody I know asks that first, and is surprised to hear that we don’t want or like them). And no, we’re not doing it for the “resale value”. We’ve been in the house for 21 years (right after we fled NJ) and we expect to be there for decades to come. The house is paid off (15-year mortgages are *wonderful*), and didn’t need to take out a loan to do the addition.

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