The performance of US prime jumbo loan performance within residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) slipped again in January as serious delinquencies (60+ days past due) rose for the 32nd consecutive month and edged closer to 10%, according to the latest market commentary from Fitch Ratings.
Prime jumbo loan delinquencies began to rise in Q207 but accelerated since then. In 2009, the rate of delinquency nearly tripled during the year. The serious delinquencies rose to 9.6% in January from 9.2% in December.
“The new year has brought no relief from declining jumbo loan performance,” said Fitch managing director Vincent Barberio. “The trend line for delinquencies indicates the 10% level could be reached as early as next month.”
California spearheaded the rising delinquencies, jumping to 11.3% in January from 10.8% a month earlier. The state represents 44% of the $381bn prime jumbo RMBS market.
Four other states rounded out the top five in terms of highest volume of prime jumbo loans outstanding. New York, which represents 7% of the market, saw delinquencies rise to 6.1% from 5.8% the month before. Florida, representing 6% of the market, rose to 16.6% delinquent, from 16%. Virginia, representing 5% of the market, jumped to 5.6% delinquent from 5.4%. And New Jersey, representing 4% of the market, grew to 7.4% delinquent, from 7.1%.
From the LA Times:
People who hold jumbo loans on pricey U.S. properties continued to struggle in January as more Americans lose their jobs and property values have plummeted, according to a report released Monday.
“The deterioration in performance is really the combination of two things going on: rising unemployment that took place throughout 2009 as well as our estimate that about a third of all jumbo loans that are current are underwater in terms of the value, so [borrowers] owe more on their properties than they are worth,” Fitch managing director Vincent Barberio said. “As more of these loans become delinquent, they ultimately will come into foreclosure.”
Prime jumbo loan delinquencies began to rise in the second quarter of 2007, but accelerated in 2009 and nearly tripled over the course of the year, Fitch said. The five states with the highest volume of prime jumbo loans outstanding are California, New York, Florida, Virginia and New Jersey.
The five states with the highest volume of prime jumbo loans outstanding (California, New York, Florida, Virginia, and New Jersey) comprise approximately two-thirds of the loans in question. Prime jumbo RMBS 60+ days delinquencies for these states at January 2010 compared to December 2009, and their approximate share of the $381 billion market, are as follows:
–California: 11.3%, up from 10.8% (44% share of the market);
–New York: 6.1%, up from 5.8% (7% share);
–Florida: 16.6%, up from 16% (6% share);
–Virginia: 5.6%, up from 5.4% (5% share);
–New Jersey: 7.4%, up from 7.1% (4% share).