NJ foreclosures slow, but still hit a painful 14% YOY increase

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. foreclosure rate drops for second month in a row

The number of New Jersey homeowners in various stages of the foreclosure process dropped for the second consecutive month in February, displaying a housing picture that is improving, but still behind the previous year’s estimates.

Lenders sent foreclosure fillings to 3,750 N.J. properties in February, down almost 39 percent from January, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif.-based firm that tracks real estate trends. That number, however, is still about 14 percent higher than the number of filings sent in the same period last year.

Nationwide, more than 308,524 properties received notices in February, according to RealtyTrac. That’s about a 2 percent decrease in total properties from the previous month, but a 6 percent rise from the same period a year ago.

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522 Responses to NJ foreclosures slow, but still hit a painful 14% YOY increase

  1. Essex says:

    Foreclosure is the new black.

  2. SG says:

    There are 2 houses near by me that have been foreclosed upon almost 1 year ago. The bank has not put them on market. I wonder why?

  3. SG says:

    New round of foreclosures threatens housing market

    About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale. Some economists project it could take nearly three years before all these homes have been put on the market and purchased by new owners. And the number of pending foreclosures could grow much bigger over the coming year as more distressed borrowers become delinquent and then, if they can’t obtain mortgage relief, wade through the foreclosure process, which often takes more than a year to complete.

    The rate at which J.P. Morgan Chase seized properties, for example, peaked in the middle of 2008 and fell steadily last year, according to a February investor report. But the bank expects repossessions to increase this year, nearly doubling to 45,000 by the fourth quarter.

    “Some of the positive housing data may not be signaling a true turning point, as many servicers are holding back on foreclosures and the related houses are not yet being offered for sale,” said Diane Westerback, a managing director at Standard & Poor’s. Westerback said it could take 33 months to clear the backlog.

  4. grim says:

    #3 – Don’t need to mark to market anymore, so just foreclose and hold the asset at the last (and highest) marked value. Why do something stupid like sell it and have to go through the headache of incurring a material loss?

    The financial equivalent of sitting, crouched in a corner, eyes closed and ears covered, rocking back and forth.

  5. SG says:

    From earlier article,

    The borrowers in trouble now are, for the most part, people who have better credit and safer loans and have become delinquent because they’ve lost their jobs or are dealing with other economic setbacks, economists said. More than 75 percent of the borrowers who are now seriously delinquent — meaning they have missed at least three monthly payments — have traditional prime loans, according to First American CoreLogic. Most of these borrowers have not made a mortgage payment in six months.

    These borrowers are among the most difficult to help. Homeowners with economic troubles such as extended unemployment often cannot make even reduced mortgage payments. And the longer borrowers stay delinquent, the more difficult it is to fashion a mortgage relief plan for them.

  6. grim says:

    Foreclosure and bankruptcy is the solution, not the problem. Don’t ever forget that.

  7. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Jumbo RMBS Delinquencies Nearing Third Year of Rises

    The prime jumbo mortgage market, especially in California and Florida, continues to deteriorate in the residential-mortgage backed securities (RMBS) space, posting rising 60-day or more delinquencies for the 33rd consecutive month, according to Fitch Ratings. And to jumbo market players, the trend is expected to continue for some time.

    “There is a possibility that over any upcoming given month there will be an upswing in borrowers who come current,” Grant Bailey, a senior director for the RMBS group at Fitch, tells HousingWire, “but the biggest obstacle in the private-label market remains: a high percentage of these borrows are in negative equity.”

    The jumbo market in the United States is worth an estimated $376bn and dropping. The five states with the highest volume of prime jumbo loans outstanding — California, New York, Florida, Virginia, and New Jersey — represent approximately two-thirds of total delinquencies.

  8. grim says:

    What was with the Bank Failure Thursday notification from the FDIC?

    Ha ha ha guys, you got us.

  9. Final Doom says:

    Stu, Chi (last thread)-

    Will do a Dead Bulls/Harrison barcrawl GTG anytime this Summer. Got a walk-thru of the stadium a few weeks ago. Even with 2 ft of snow on the ground, you could tell the place is unbelievable. Just as nice as one of the best mid-size EPL parks, like Eastlands, the Reebok, Stadium of Light, etc.

    The only thing they neglected to do was to honor the neighborhood by putting bars in the stadium that sell shots of rotgut whiskey and stale, flat beer chasers.

  10. Final Doom says:

    Of course, somebody needs to open a joint in Harrison where you can get a proper English fry-up and chase it with a few pints of high-octane ale.

  11. freedy says:

    how long will it take to turn the new ball park into a getto?

  12. Cindy says:


    Elizabeth @ TBP – 11 minutes.

    “I believe in contracts.” You have to give her this, she is no quitter.

  13. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Your tax dollars at work (if you were alive back then):

    French Bread Spiked with LSD in CIA Experiment
    March 11th, 2010
    Via: Telegraph:

    A 50-year mystery over the ‘cursed bread’ of Pont-Saint-Esprit, which left residents suffering hallucinations, has been solved after a writer discovered the US had spiked the bread with LSD as part of an experiment.


    If they had only known they could have had all the mind control they wanted with televised sports, soap operas and reality TV.

  14. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Instead of “If a tree falls in the woods, and nobody is around does it make a sound?”; we now have “If a homeowner is in default of his mortgage and the bank is not around is there a foreclosure?”

  15. Shore Guy says:

    ” More than 75 percent of the borrowers who are now seriously delinquent — meaning they have missed at least three monthly payments — have traditional prime loans”

    Big deal, they have conventionol loans; they still borrowed too much. A prudenr borrower does not assume they will always have the same (or more) cash coming in through the door each month during the entire length of the loan. A prudent borrower considers the possibility of job loss or disability.

    When we bought our place we only considered one of our incomes (leaving the other in reserve, as it were) and, for the one income we were using, we only counted 60% of that towards our affordability calculations. That way, were something to have happened, we could be reasonably assured of being able to pay our bills. We also under bought (got a bit less house than we could “afford”) so that we could put down 20-odd percent and still have a couple years worth of savings in the bank to draw on, if necessary.

    The proliferation of people “overbuying” and “stretching” just drove up the prices for everyone and put affordable places out of reach for the prudent among us. I shedno tears for those who gambled on always having the same income. The sooner things shake out, even with traditional loans, the better off we will all be.

  16. Shore Guy says:

    “d it could take 33 months to clear the backlog.”

    Is that clearing just the current backlog or the current and projected future additions to the inventory?

    Last year we thought we would be buying an additional this autumn. Now? I am projecting 2011 or 2012. In the interim we may buy some farm land and lease it to a local farmer.

  17. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Lies, Damn Lies, And Gubmint Statistics:

    “Statistical Color
    Although I’m not an economist, I spend a lot of time trying to figure out which way the economic winds are blowing. For a country as large, diverse, and globally connected as the United States, it can be quite challenging deciding which trends and data points are relevant at any given point in time, and which are extraneous, untimely, incomplete, or misleading. It doesn’t help, of course, that many so-called experts in Washington and on Wall Street (along with their enablers in the media) are happy to dissemble and distort instead of presenting the pertinent numbers along with a straightforward interpretation of what they mean. But even when the data is unencumbered by spin, it helps to understand its shortcomings and limitations. Below are four reports that provide some additional color on the statistics that many analysts are keying in on nowadays.”


    I especially like this tidbit”

    Our public debt is 40% of GDP according to the CIA 2009 World Factbook, down from 60% in 2007. Right? Well, they took the off-balance-sheet debt off the tally; apples-to-apples, we’re at 85%, and rising fast. Add in the GSEs, plus state and local debt, and we’re at 140% of GDP. Greece is at 115% of GDP. Add in the unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations, and we’re at 420% of GDP. Who has greasier accounting? Sadly, the US.”

  18. Shore Guy says:

    “French Bread Spiked with LSD in CIA Experiment”

    Maybe this explains congress.

  19. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “A prudenr borrower does not assume they will always have the same (or more) cash coming in through the door each month during the entire length of the loan. A prudent borrower considers the possibility of job loss or disability.”

    Yeah but if we take the 2/20 3% $650K mortgage on the $700K POS cape we can get the extra bedroom and stainless steel appliances and you know housing prices never fall so we can always sell it if we have to at $750K. Plus the realtor says we need to be aggressive and make a bid now or we may not get it!!!!

  20. Shore Guy says:



  21. Mocha says:

    2 SG. Banks are now doing with homes what DeBeers has been doing with diamonds. Face it, these banks munis and gov’s will outlive us all. They will do whatever it takes not to take a loss.

  22. Cindy says:

    Still @ 117 Shore @ 122 – Yesterday’s thread regarding terminology….How’s this for unsavory:

    Lady Licker.

    Safe @ 120 – Tenured teachers are losing jobs here right and left – layoffs.

  23. safeashouses says:

    #22 Cindy,

    I was trying to say tenured teachers can lose their job through layoffs, but it is virtually impossible to get rid of them otherwise. Also, if a tenured teacher gets laid off, when the BOE needs to rehire, even 20 years later, that laid off teacher has to be offered that spot before anyone else.

  24. PGC says:


    Sad news is that Thistle Fish and Chips closed their doors in Kerney, but I think Argyle might still be open.


    We can do take out with cans of Boddingtons in the carpark.

    Who ate all the pies?

  25. 3b says:

    #4 But aren’t not the banks paying property taxes on all these foreclosed houses that they are sitting on?

  26. Boddingtons…one of my faves along with Smithwicks and Guinness (on tap). Those Boddington’s Draught cans are one of the most important inventions of the 21st century. I’ve never been to the Argyle, but it works for me. If push came to shove, I could pick up some decent ones at the Crocket’s Fish Fry in Montclair, wrap ’em in foil and we could reheat them at the tailgate. Let’s pick a date and make this happen. I also need to pick up one of those annoying red plastic horns for the Rutger’s games.

  27. 3b says:

    Speaking of suspect numbers from discussions earlier this weerk According to Trulia the median sales price in my town has increased by 210K or over 45% in one year!!! Were this to be believed these prices would be bubbler than they were during the height before the bubble burst.

  28. Final Doom says:

    Shore (16)-

    33 months is optimistic.

    Even more problematic, the game has been rigged and distorted so badly that even when the backlog has been liquidated, it will take 20-40 years to restore public confidence in the honesty of the marketplace.

    RE is dead for the rest of our lives.

  29. 3b,

    Have been using Zillow to find out previous purchase prices of recently sold homes. In most cases, they are estimating about 20% over the recent sales price. I’m talking homes that sold a month ago. Those sites are truly useless.

  30. Final Doom says:


    Damn, Cindy, that was going to be my new handle.

    “Lady Licker”

  31. Final Doom says:

    I could go for a Smitwick’s right now.

    Excellent breakfast beer.

  32. 3b says:

    #29 Incredible!!! If I were to go by trulia the POS cape that was 500k at peak, that has recently been selling at around 400K (closed sales) is now back up to 500k,and a 45% yearly increase will be ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!! in another year or so.

  33. Final Doom says:

    3b (32)-

    OTOH, we could all be living in tent cities, surrounded by armed marauders.

    Now, I need a Smithwick’s. Check this lovely piece:

    “Presenting a detailed look at “Repo 105″ – the next soundbite sure to fill the airwaves over the next weeks and months, as more and more banks are uncovered to be using this borderline criminal accounting gimmick to make their leverage ratios look better. This is the first time we have heard this loophole abuse by a bank, be it defunct (Lehman) or existing (everyone else). There should be an immediate investigation into how many other banks are currently taking advantage of this artificial scheme to manipulate and misrepresent their cap ratio, and just why the New York Fed can claim it had no idea of this very critical component of the Shadow Economy.”


    If there’s a line forming to punch Dick Fuld in the face, I’m ready to queue up.

  34. Final Doom says:

    Here’s the short story:

    “Lehman accounted for Repo 105 transactions as “sales” as opposed to financing transactions based upon the overcollateralization or higher than normal haircut in a Repo 105 transaction. By recharacterizing the Repo 105 transaction as a “sale,” Lehman removed the inventory from its balance sheet.

    Lehman regularly increased its use of Repo 105 transactions in the days prior to reporting periods to reduce its publicly reported net leverage and balance sheet.”

  35. frank says:

    Where’s the recession??? where’s the snow???

    Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose in February


  36. chicagofinance says:

    PGC, Stu, vito & clot: It should be done. I stare at that damn thing every time I head into the city. Also, we probably get an automatic from nom as well. I say we all chip in and fly in Cindy from Fresno….she can sing the national anthem…..

    284.PGC says:
    March 11, 2010 at 10:45 pm
    #281 Chi

    Could be tempted. Family friendly? If I take a rugrat it would be an easier sell.

    286.Stu says:
    March 11, 2010 at 10:51 pm
    You know what’s funny ChiFi?

    I was thinking the same thing. I haven’t been to a Redbull match since they were the MetroStars, but I enjoyed them thoroughly, lousy skill level and all. Can we get juiced up somewhere in the ironbound prior to the game?

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Tax News of the Day:

    Record number of “taxpayers” in US had no tax obligation (or got $$$) back, including record number of above group earning more than $50,000


    So, 250K is the new rich; 50K is the new poor, and everyone in between is middle class.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [33] doom

    Here’s the BNA version:

    “Lehman Report Creates Litigation Exposure
    For Former Officers, Auditor, Attorneys Say
    NEW YORK—Allegations contained in a comprehensive report concerning the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may expose the bankrupt firm’s former officers and its former external auditor to litigation hazards, financial services lawyers told BNA March 11.
    The 2,209-page report, not counting four volumes of appendices, was prepared by court-appointed examiner and Jenner & Block LLP partner Anton Valukas, and scrutinized the circumstances surrounding the Lehman bankruptcy. In part, the report concluded business decisions that may have helped instigate Lehman’s bankruptcy “may have been in error but were largely within the business judgment rule.”
    But the report also concluded “the decision not to disclose the effects of those judgments does give rise to colorable claims against the senior officers who oversaw and certified misleading financial statements.”
    Further, the report said “[t]here are colorable claims against Lehman’s external auditor Ernst & Young for, among other things, its failure to question and challenge improper or inadequate disclosures in those financial statements.”
    An Ernst & Young statement e-mailed to BNA March 11 said the firm’s last audit of Lehman was conducted for a fiscal year ending Nov. 30, 2007, and that those financial statements were “fairly presented” in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.
    ‘Errors of Business Judgment.’
    Lehman Brothers voluntarily filed for Chapter 11 protection Sept. 15, 2008 after failing to identify a buyer or secure a federal government-financed bailout (151 DTR K-1, 8/10/09). In its bankruptcy court filing, the firm said “the onset of instability in the financial markets over the past several months created significant liquidity problems” for the company.
    “There are many reasons Lehman failed, and the responsibility is shared,” the March 11 report said. The report said Lehman executives’ behavior ranged from “serious but non-culpable errors of business judgment to actionable balance sheet manipulation.”
    Financial services lawyers contacted March 11 by BNA said the former officers who allegedly did not disclose information and manipulated financial documents may face litigation exposure because of their actions or inactions.
    The report specifically named former Lehman Chief Executive Officer Richard S. Fuld and former chief financial officers Christopher O’Meara, Erin M. Callan, and Ian T. Lowitt.
    Use of ‘Accounting Device.’
    The report also asserted that Lehman, in order to move assets off its balance sheet, used an “accounting device (known within Lehman as ‘Repo 105′) to manage its balance sheet—by temporarily removing approximately $50 billion of assets from the balance sheet at the end of the first and second quarters of 2008.”
    The effect of utilizing that repo, or repurchase agreement, permitted specific Lehman transactions to be treated as sales rather than financings, which allowed the firm to move assets off its balance sheet. “Lehman used Repo 105 for no articulated business purpose except to reduce balance sheet [assets] at the quarter-end,” the report said.
    “Lehman did not disclose its use—or the significant magnitude of its use—of Repo 105 to the Government, to the rating agencies, to its investors, or to its own Board of Directors. Lehman’s auditors, Ernst & Young, were aware of but did not question Lehman’s use and nondisclosure of the Repo 105 accounting transactions,” the report said.
    In its March 11 statement, Ernst & Young stood by its auditing practices. “Lehman’s bankruptcy, which occurred in September 2008, was the result of a series of unprecedented adverse events in the financial markets. Our last audit of the Company was for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2007. Our opinion indicated that Lehman’s financial statements for that year were fairly presented in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and we remain of that view,” the statement said.”

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [36] chifi

    I’m in. Provided there’s drinking before and after. Drunk is the only way I think I can handle that much exposure to soccer or Kearny.

  40. chicagofinance says:

    Read right before lunch….

    “You could see some woman with her head stuck in between the train [and the platform] and her arms sticking out,” recalled witness Andrew Pistella, 30. “Some guy was screaming, ‘Is this real? Is this real?’ It looked like a mannequin.”

    It was bedlam on the platform, with children, teenagers and old ladies shrieking hysterically, witnesses said.


  41. Painhrtz says:

    3B to quote beck (hansen not the faux news wack)

    dont believe everything that you read
    you get a parking violation and a maggot on your sleave

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Now here’s a group that we can all agree should be soaked:

    “Crunching the BigLaw Numbers: Equity Partner Profits Drop Less than 1%

    Equity partners at the nation’s top law firms didn’t have to take much of a financial hit last year, thanks to layoffs of associates and staffers.

    Legal consulting firm the Zeugheuser Group crunched the numbers, charting financial results reported as of March 1 for 52 of the nation’s top 100 law firms and 15 firms in the second 100. The American Lawyer collects the results and publishes them as they trickle in.

    Zeughauser’s findings (PDF): Profits per equity partner dropped an average of only .8 percent at the top law firms, while their gross revenues dropped an average of 3.8 percent.

    The results were even more impressive at the 15 law firms in the second 100. Their profits per equity partner jumped an average of 9.8 percent and gross revenues jumped an average of 2.3 percent. . . .”

    I know a decent number of in-house counsel that won’t be too happy with this report. They are paying more for the same work because work has been “upstreamed” to sr. associates and partners, who bill more for the same tasks.

    I see opportunity.

  43. chicagofinance says:

    The Jets are so desperate to move PSLs they will now throw in one of Antonio Cromartie’s kids. Has there ever been a more shameful testament to sports greed than the Jets, in a flash, blowing through a 20-year ticket waiting list, and now still unable to sell out a new stadium after a good season?


  44. jamil van jones says:

    40 “A woman dropped her gym bag on the tracks of a crowded Upper East Side subway station yesterday ”

    must have been expensive gym stuff.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [40] chi

    on the radio this morning. Hate to say it but she died of stupid.

    I dropped a cell on the tracks once when I inadvertently pulled it from my pocket along with other things while exiting a subway car. MTA had a guy with a picker there in minutes. He nabbed it on the first try, and I was able to make my Amtrak. Not often I compliment MTA but they earned it that day.

  46. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Chicago (43):

    Just have John’s Wall Street buddies buy the tickets. They are loaded with cash.

  47. 3b says:

    #35 frank: Don’t forget about the big downward revisiosn to January’s number, but so what who cares!!!

    Also analyze the various categories, I am not feeling the love there with those numbers.

    Also interesting that if these numbers are supposed to indicate a rebound yet we are told that Feb snow storms kept people unemployed, but apparently did not keep them from shopping??

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [43] chifi

    “The Jets are so desperate to move PSLs they will now throw in one of Antonio Cromartie’s kids.”

    Big deal. I can get one of those anywhere.

  49. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Frank (35):

    You are funny. The only reason retails sales were up was because the numbers for January were revised down.

    Retail sales are up 1.2% annual. Very weak. But I suppose we will see a 100 point up day on the casino, err,,I mean the stock markets.

  50. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    How not to litigate a foreclosure:

    “Kaye Scholer has agreed to pay an opponent’s legal fees after a Florida bankruptcy judge criticized the law firm for trying to “score a litigation point” in its pleadings.

    The law firm represents Bank of America in a foreclosure action against a Miami condominium developer, the Wall Street Journal (sub. req.) reports. In a motion that sought to keep developer Cabi Downtown from renting out the condo units, Bank of America contended that at least nine condos had been rented to convicted felons, including a sexual offender.

    Cabi’s lawyers responded that only two of the units were rented to residents with criminal records, and their histories don’t raise any basis for concern, the story says. Both sides now agree that none of the renters was a sexual offender.

    Judge Laurel Myerson Isicoff said the Kaye Scholer lawyers should have investigated more thoroughly before putting possibly defamatory allegations in its pleadings, according to the Wall Street Journal account. “If you truly believed there were dangerous individuals living in that building,” Isicoff wrote, “then that is something you should have brought to the debtor’s attention immediately, unless it’s more important to score a litigation point than it is to protect the safety of the people living in your collateral.”

    A Kaye Scholer lawyer told the Wall Street Journal that the information in the pleadings came from lease files provided by the developer, but some of it turned out to be inaccurate. A lawyer for Cabi countered that the assertion is “completely wrong.”

    As a student of legal history (which these guys obviously are not), it seems Kaye Scholer didn’t learn from the asswhipping they got from the FDIC a couple of decades ago.

  51. Final Doom says:

    My investment pick of the day:

    Take Duke and lay the points. Game is at noon.

  52. jamil van jones says:

    I have to hand it to Nancy. At least she is a creative thief. Now she wants to impose 2.9% tax on unearned income.

    This should be efficient way to soak the middle class. So if the government assesses your house to be 20% more valuable, you are subject to 2.9% unearned income of the 20% increase. Nancy will probably arrange a cut for local assessors so they know how to “assess” your house. Likewise, the appeal process will be “streamlined”.

  53. freedy says:

    MGM pulling out of AC, another stupid NJ
    move. one of the best operators

  54. Final Doom says:

    plume (50)-

    Idiots never learn.

    Also, I think this Miami judge has some history behind her as being defendant-friendly in FKs (was she the one who ruled for defendants in all the “produce the note” FKs about a year ago?). Gotta think all those Miami judges are predisposed not to knuckle under to banks.

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume says:


    Ooops, neither do I. It was the FHLBB (later the OTS), not the FDIC, that went after Kaye Scholer over the failure of Lincoln Savings and Loan, resulting in a $41 million settlement.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [52] JVJ

    Uh, jamil, in the past you have done a better job of reading up on the stories you comment on.

    Suffice it to say, I have no idea what you are talking about.

  57. Yikes says:

    i’d post a link but i’ve tried to do it twice and it got snagged in mod …

    only in the south.

    Constance McMillen, an 18-year-old senior at Itawamba Agricultural High School in Fulton, said Wednesday the school board’s decision to cancel the school prom rather than allow her to attend with her girlfriend is retaliation.

    McMillen and the American Civil Liberties Union of Mississippi gave the district until Wednesday to drop its objections to same-sex dates. The school board responded with a statement canceling the prom and suggesting a private group host an independent prom instead.

    “We sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this causes anyone,” the message concluded.

    McMillen was alarmed when she heard of the board’s decision to cancel the April 2 dance.

    “Oh, my God. That’s really messed up because the message they are sending is that if they have to let gay people go to prom that they are not going to have one,” she said. “A bunch of kids at school are really going to hate me for this, so in a way it’s really retaliation.”

    School officials told McMillen last month that she could not bring her sophomore girlfriend to the prom and could not wear a tuxedo. The school then circulated a memo prohibiting same-sex dates.

    “I asked my teacher about it, and she said, ‘Well, you have to remember where you are,'” McMillen said.

    But Christine Sun, the ACLU’s senior attorney for its gay rights project, said the ban on same-sex dates is a violation of McMillen’s constitutional rights.

    “We believe the law is pretty clear,” Sun said. “The school just can’t arbitrarily say you have to be an opposite (sex) date to (go to) the prom.”

    McMillen said she believes the district is trying to get around the issue by having a private group hold the dance to limit attendance.

  58. Final Doom says:

    Could be ixnay on the Dead Bulls GTG:

    NEW YORK (AP) – Major League Soccer players voted to strike if a new labor contract isn’t agreed to before the first season opener on March 25.

    The league’s first collective bargaining agreement, a five-year deal, originally was set to run out Jan. 31 but was extended twice while negotiations continued. It expired Feb. 25 after the MLS Players Union refused another extension.
    “Recent comments from players simply reflect the fact that the players are unified and, per the results of our strike vote, will not begin the new season if a new agreement with the league is not reached,” union executive director Bob Foose said in a statement Thursday.

  59. Final Doom says:

    Today, jamil has revealed himself to be nothing more than a fairly sophisticated spambot.

  60. Final Doom says:

    There are enough legitimate reasons to hate rictus-face Pelosi; why make stuff up?

  61. Mr Hyde says:

    HEHE 17

    There you go with those needless big numbers again. Do you realize that puts us at about the same level as Zimbabwe?

    Our public debt is 40% of GDP according to the CIA 2009 World Factbook, down from 60% in 2007. Right? Well, they took the off-balance-sheet debt off the tally; apples-to-apples, we’re at 85%, and rising fast. Add in the GSEs, plus state and local debt, and we’re at 140% of GDP. Greece is at 115% of GDP. Add in the unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations, and we’re at 420% of GDP. Who has greasier accounting? Sadly, the US.”

  62. RUWaiting says:

    [15] Shore, I’ve made the same point on numerous occasions only to receive a blank stare……I just shake my head and murmur WTF to myself

    I’m just happy the wife is on board….

  63. jamil van jones says:

    56 Comrade: One of the current tax additions hidden in the latest incarnation of nationalized HC bill states that for rich people ” 2.9% surtax on unearned income from interest, dividends, annuities, royalties and rents.”

    You may recall that back in the days, AMT was supposed to be only for rich 20 families or so and the taxes hidden in Nancy’s bills tend to expand pretty soon. So it is fair to say, tha pretty soon the “unearned income” will be expanded similarly to every other tax expansion in the last 50 years. So every interpretation of the “unearned income” will eventually be taxed or probably already tucked into bill after it has passed.

  64. relo says:

    I can’t imagine this was overseen administratively to the point of detriment, but further evidence that all stops are being pulled.


    Separately, noticing a bunch of HF PMs striking out on theer own from big names. This was unthinkable a year ago.

  65. borat obama says:

    Hi fivee

  66. yo'me says:

    NYT Joins Efforts to Scare Public About the Size of Government Debt

    Peter Peterson, the billionaire Wall Street investment banker, is devoting more than $1 billion to a campaign to whip up fears about budget deficits in order to force cuts in Social Security and Medicare. It almost looks as though the NYT has joined the effort.

    It printed an article today that uses a measure of government debt that is explicitly designed to be misleading. The article reports on the debt of Greece, but then adds in a discussion of the debts of other countries, including the United States.

    The calculations are misleading because they compare future obligations over many decades to the current year’s GDP. The honest way to do this calculation is to compare future obligations to projected GDP over the time horizon in which these obligations will be met. However, this calculation would produce a much lower ratio. (The debt in the case of the U.S. would be around 6 percent of GDP.)

    It is also worth noting that in the case of the United States, the vast majority of the projected deficit is due to exploding health care costs. If the country fixed its health care system it would instead have large surpluses.

    –Dean Baker

  67. Mr Hyde says:

    yome 66

    more spin. US GDP cannot continue to grow at an annualized rate of 3% for much longer. The only reason GDP growth isnt currently negative is because of massive, trillion dollar government spending. On top of that our economy is 60-70 consumption. Globalization assures that we cannot continue to leverage ourselves off of the 3rd world in order to maintain our consumer society.

    of course the GOV can rig the #’s all day, but that doesnt change reality

  68. PGC says:

    “2.9% surtax on unearned income from interest, dividends, annuities, royalties and rents”

    Doesn’t go for enough. Tax it as ordinary income.

  69. yo'me says:

    #67 Mr Hyde

    The Dollar, the Deficit, and Accounting Identities

    It would be great if people who reported on the budget deficit for major news outlets could be required to know the basic accounting identities that get taught in every introductory economics class. The key one that almost none of them seem to know is that the trade deficit (X-M) is equal to the sum of public and private savings (T-G)+(S-I). This identity means that if the United States is running a trade deficit, then the sum of public and private savings must also be negative. That has to be true — it is an identity. It’s just like 2 + 2 = 4. It is always true.

    This matters for all the nutty deficit hysteria because no one every asks the deficit hawks how they would like to see the identity met. The U.S. has a large trade deficit because of the value of the dollar. At a given level of GDP, the main determinant of the trade deficit is the value of the dollar. Politicians and even many economists like to hyperventilate about “competitiveness” and talk about how we’re going to improve our trade situation by getting a better trained and educated work force, rebuilding the infrastructure, or fixing the tax code. But even if you gave any of these characters everything they wanted in whichever direction, there is no plausible story where their policy of choice would have even half the impact on competitiveness and trade as a 10 percent reduction in the value of the dollar — and even then we would only see the impact after many years.

    So, the trade deficit is determined by the value of the dollar for all practical purposes. But, most of the deficit hawks see a fall in the value of the dollar as the worst possible outcome. This is their horror story. People will worry about whether the U.S. can pay its debts and then the dollar would fall, the horror, the horror!

    Okay, so the deficit hawks want the U.S. to run a large trade deficit. Then the next question is what the rest of the equation should look like. Since they want a balanced or near balanced budget, the deficit hawks must want very low private savings. Again, we can hope to get the identity met by having high levels of private investment, but neither they, nor anyone else, has anything in their bag of tricks that will appreciable raise the level of private investment.

    This means that Peter Peterson, David Walker and the rest of the deficit hawk crew want workers to have very low private savings, so that they will have nothing to live on in retirement when we cut their Social Security and Medicare. They may not say this, and it’s possible that they don’t even understand it themselves, but that is the logical conclusion of their position.

    That may make Peter Peterson look bad, but accounting identities are even more powerful than rich Wall Street investment bankers with a billion dollars to buy newspapers, reporters, and economists.

    –Dean Baker

  70. yo'me says:

    The U.S. health care system is possibly the most inefficient in the world: We spend twice as much per person on health care as other advanced countries, but we have worse health outcomes, including a lower life expectancy. The government, through programs like Medicare and Medicaid, pays for approximately half of the country’s health care, almost all of which is actually provided by the private sector. Thus, the bulk of our projected rising budget deficits are due to skyrocketing health care costs.


  71. jamil van jones says:

    if anybody is wondering what Jon Corzine’s campaign workers are doing nowadays:

    “FBI eyeing Al Qaeda-linked New Jersey man, Sharif Mobley, busted in Yemen for hospital shootout”

    “Campaign finance records show Mobley received $75 as an election day worker for Gov. Jon Corzine’s campaign in 2005.”


    had he been a second cousin of tea party member, Sebelius would have rounded up the tea party members already.

    god this right-wing violence is everywhere.

  72. fly-over says:

    Those weary of the constant drumbeat of realestate news may wish to investigate a technology item.

    I have been looking at the laser projector company Microvision. It seems that laser based pico-projectors may soon be available after a long series of green laser supply problems.

    This seems to me to be a technological game changer, but I’m interested in other viewpoints.


  73. veto that says:

    I’ve decided to re-adjust my nj home price forecast to be more optimistic. I was originally expecting another 10-15% crash but after reworking my model, i think we’ll be lucky to get another 10% drop from Jan 2010.

    Here is everyone’s forecast and my methodology on page two will show why im becoming more optimistic.


  74. Jamil (72):

    ““Campaign finance records show Mobley received $75 as an election day worker for Gov. Jon Corzine’s campaign in 2005.””

    Oh my f’in god. Is this true? How can I join the Right? I was recently told that the secret handshake is a bit tricky as it involves the use of your feet as well. They said if you tap your feet a few times in an airport bathroom stall, they will begin the initiation process.

    So is it true that the elephant, your parties sacred symbol, stems from the frequent elephant marches performed at teabagger rallies?

    Shore, better not look up elephant march. It might blow your mind.

  75. veto that says:

    Forget Greece: Italy derivatives bomb also ticking


  76. Anon E. Moose says:


    Kaye Scholer for run of the mill foreclosures? Kind of pricey. All the big banks and servicers in NY use some guy in Buffalo for all foreclosures in the state. He has an army of ‘paralegals’ working for him. He signs something like >50/day, carefully scrutinising every one, I’m sure.

    Damn, I picked the wrong line of work.

  77. jamil van jones says:

    Stu 75: It was big news for forum libs few days ago when some white kid whose uncle was some republican nobody had ever heard of, was involved in some shooting. State Media also reported the connection to the relative. Likewise, every incident of violence is linked to the Right, by the State Media, even when the typical connections to the Left have been found (Antrax killer, IRS suicide pilot, nutty white professor who killed minority professors etc).

    and yes, the secret handshake is there. Once you have it, you can join the Right-Wing Conspirace that rules the world. We meet on Thursdays.

  78. Shore Guy says:


    Thanks for the warning. I have concluded that therr are just some things I do not need to know, including how others do know.

  79. PGC says:

    #69 yo’me

    I think Dean Baker fails Econ 101. (T-G)+(S-I) is the Current Account Balance and while the US account is overdrawn is it is covered by the sale of UST.

    The trade defecit is the where the value of goods exported is less than the value of goods imported. The balance of trade is an indication of a trade surplus or defecit. The strength of the dollar will have a greater impact on the Balance of Trade that it has on the current account because of the level of domestic production and consumpsion.

    If the Dollar gets too weak, imports cost a lot more, but that gets balanced by the demand for the imports drop because they are too expensive.
    If the dollar gets too srong, while it helps push towards a trade surplus, demand for exports drops as the cost of the goods gets too high.

    The key is to hold the dollar at a point were you create a nice surplus but don’t stoke inflation.

  80. NJGator says:

    Chifi 40 – Must have been a day for stupid. M&E last night was delayed due to a “trespasser fatality” in East Orange.

  81. Shore Guy says:


    One of the things I find fascinating is how perceptions of liberal and conservative have changed. Thos of us who were Reagan appointees were, at least until ’94, seen as very conservative. And, given my particular views on certain national-security and anti-terrorism activities, I was still viewed that way until well into the Shrub’s administration. Now, suddenly, those of us who acknowledge the co-equal branches of government and accept the courts’ ability to stop unconstitutional actions on the part of the other two branches, and who reject the essentially-Imperial-Roman view of the POTUS being able to act as all-powerful military leader with the power to ignore therule of law, some folks would cast folks like me as liberals.

    Some people sure are odd.

  82. 3b says:

    #74 You are leaving out still dismal unemployment,and massive increase in property taxes. This year is going to be especially ugly, with many towns having increases of 10% or more. Also your charts do not factor in the removal of stimulus. I don’t see any reason to become more optimistic that prices will not fall further than another 10%. Of course I for one want them to fall further, another 20% on top of the 20% or so we have seen,and that should do it.

  83. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:



    A lot of the big money is investing in farmland. I always thought it was a good idea but was wondering if the idea is becoming mainstream.

  84. skep-tic says:


    “Boddingtons…one of my faves along with Smithwicks and Guinness (on tap).”

    don’t forget Caffrey’s.

  85. Shore Guy says:

    “Equity partners at the nations top law firms didnt have to take much of a financial hit last year, thanks to layoffs of associates and staffers”


    It is interesting when one gets up-close-and-personal with top earners at the top law firms and one sees just how overextended so many have gotten themselves.

    Whether earning 20,000/yr or 2,000,000/yr, a huge percentage of people seem to have spent well beyond their income level.

    One thing I see is pqrtners who receive their distributions and then do NOT set aside cash for quarterly estimated payments and then need to scramble at the end of the year to cover what they owe to the UST.

    Wake up folks, 60% or more of those cheques was NOT yours and you shouldn’t have spent it.

  86. veto that says:

    “#74 You are leaving out still dismal unemployment, massive increase in property taxes and the removal of stimulus.”

    3b – no thats all factored in.
    I dont think prop taxes are going up as much as you thing and i dont think unemployment will get wayworse from here. There is a good chance that it actually starts improving.
    Also, the removal of the stimulus will have very little effect. The feds will engineer it to success. It might add 50 bps onto a mortgage but who cares when fha is giving money to deadbeats like its 2006.
    I think you are too negative. But thats what makes this forecast fun!

  87. Shore Guy says:


    I like the ppssibility for simple reasons: 1) it carries lower taxes, 2) it could help feed us, and 3) the portion rented can bring in some income all while shielding the investment from drops in the value of the dollar.

  88. jamil van jones says:

    82 Shore:
    I guess the correct term is Ruth Ginsburg republicans.

    So you are ready to (with straight face) to defend your constititional views:

    a) it is perfectly legal and fine use of (Dem) President’s wartime constitutional authority of ordering indiscriminate mass-murder of civilians (high altitude nuke detonation above civilian cities, ir order to maximise civilian casualties),


    b) it is clearly illegal and unconstitutional for (GOP) President to use wartime constitutional authority of ordering limited non-lethal interrogation on illegal enemy combatants in order to expose 9/11 like plot and save civilian lifes (waterboarding is used in standard US military training, unlike nuking civilian cities).

    Ready top defend your views?

  89. Shore Guy says:

    “prices will not fall further than another 10%. Of course I for one want them to fall further, another 20% on top of the 20% or so we have seen,and that should do it”

    The prices are going to fall, quickly or slowly, to where the market can suppport them. The housing market is like a big above-ground pool that has sprung a leak that cannot be repaired until the water level drops. We can put our hand against the hole to slow down the leak, but, until the water level drops, we cannot stop it.

  90. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Mexican military copter over U.S. neighborhood
    BROWNSVILLE — The Zapata County sheriff Thursday was questioning why a Mexican military helicopter was hovering over homes on the Texas side of the Rio Grande.

    It was one of the more jarring incidents of the fourth week of border tensions sparked by drug killings, and rumors of such killings, in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas.

    Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez said he’d reviewed photos of the chopper flown by armed personnel Tuesday over a residential area known as Falcon Heights-Falcon Village near the binational Falcon Lake, just south of the Starr-Zapata county line. He said the helicopter appeared to have the insignia of the Mexican navy.

  91. Shore Guy says:


    It appears that anyone who gets involved discussing anything with you finds himself or herself in Wonderland trying to have a coherent conversation with the Mad Hatter.

    As such, I will not waste my time engaging you. So, don’t bother wasting time engaging me.

    I am done with you and, though I wish you all success, happiness, and enlightenment in the future, I shall not respond to your statements from here on out. You are not worth my time.

  92. Skep: Never had Caffrey’s. I’ll look for it on your recommendation.

    That Guinness is a funny drink. Normally, any beer that is so mass produced blows. It really has a wonderful flavor and of course an incredible consistency in manufacturing. When I found out it had only 45 calories more than the same amount of Michelob Ultra (which tastes like sh1t, I might add), I couldn’t believe it. That’s only 28%. Guinness is truly the nectar of the gods. best of all, in an average bar session, it’s hard to drink more than 3 or 4 Guinness. I could probably swallow that Ultra krap continuously while pissing it out.

  93. veto that says:

    “Of course I for one want them to fall further, another 20% on top of the 20% or so we have seen,and that should do it.”

    3b I see you’ve made your forecast more optimistic as well? or did i write it down wrong?
    I have you in the same camp as clot/kettle, looking for another 40% from here, when i asked in Jan… http://www.scribd.com/full/28262362?access_key=key-10gb0ai7lh7ed0krbm5b

    Let me know. i will change it.

    Shore, where we going from here? 10%, 20%, or 30% more? or do you not bet?

  94. Shore Guy says:


    Shades of Pancho Villa and 1916, it seems.

  95. Shore Guy says:


    If I knew the answer to that, I would have less concern for where and when to deploy assets.

    Would that I had an answer.

  96. veto that says:

    I agree with faber here (not mish)… and am factoring this concept not only into my home price forecast but that of the whole economy. But i dont know where Faber is pulling a Japan stock valuation out of his @ss. That part might be a stretch.

    Marc Faber: Don’t Expect Another Crash … Bernanke Won’t Allow it

    Mar 12, 2010
    by Peter Gorenstein

    The bulls are firmly in control on Wall Street. Heading into Friday’s session, the S&P 500 is at a 17-month high. Undaunted, the bears point to light volume as a sign of weakness and a correction to come.

    “I would rather be lightening up on positions in the next couple of weeks than heavily buying in here,” says Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report.

    Accompanied by Michael “Mish” Shedlock, the man behind the economics blog, MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis, Faber tells Tech Ticker there’s very few opportunities to make money in the market right now.

    “Mish” who also thinks it’s time to take profits, goes even further, predicting a “50-50 chance the bottom is not in yet.”

    Faber, however, is confident we won’t “see 666 on the S&P 500 ever again.” He says “if we go down by 10-20% on the S&P 500, our money printer Ben Bernanke will flood the market, weakening the dollar,” and thereby driving up stock prices.

    If you are going to put money to work in stocks both market watchers think Japan is the place to be. After a 20 year bear market and despite high-debt-to-GDP levels, the pair think the market has become too cheap to ignore. Always a contrarian, Faber believes the lack of interest in Japanese stocks makes it one of the most compelling buys in the world.

  97. Shore Guy says:

    ” I could probably swallow that Ultra krap continuously while pissing it out”

    An image worthy of an Eric Massa interview.

  98. jamil van jones says:

    92 Shore: I understand. You were exposed and your arguments were smacked down. I would probably done the same if were you. You had no actual argumements in your Yoo hatred. Maybe Yoo or somebody who looked like Yoo stole our girlfriend in high-school?
    Just remember, that this is not Obamaweek reader’s forum. When you spout absolute garbage and inconsistencies, you will be called for that BS.

    Now we have learned that your buddy Holder “forgot” to disclose to Conrgess that he wrote a Padilla brief. I’m sure your views on this are consistent with your Libby opinons (“I forgot”) as we all know that your views do not depend on partisan views. Heh.

  99. veto that says:

    Shore, after all the housing articles and analysis that you read here, you dont even have a guess??? cmon now.

    Trust me it does not have to be right.

  100. skep-tic says:


    Veto– Great analysis. I am even more optimistic than you at this point. I believe that very long term historical growth rates for house prices are not very predictive for the present day due to changes in the regulatory and financing landscape. Specifically, in the last decade or so, we entered the realm of the zero down house purchase and we are never going back. Three decades of consumer credit history show that American consumers will borrow the maximum they are allowed to borrow. This pumps up price appreciation, but makes it more volatile. I believe we are headed into another big upswing– the only missing piece is employment. When this improves in a year or so in an environment of low interest rates and zero down purchases, bubble mentality will be rampant again. I believe we could easily be back to peak prices within a few years.

  101. veto that says:

    Holy cow, i hope faber is right about japanese stocks, they need a rally like nothing ive ever seen…


  102. Shore Guy says:


    I just don’t know. Part of the unknowing has to do with the broader economy. I still would not be surprised to see Dow 5,000.

    What I can say is that everything I see that I have an interest in strikes me as 20% or more overpriced. So, with no analysis beyond that, I will say 20% additional decline — at least in terms of the current value of the dollar..

  103. skep-tic says:

    Home Depot and furniture retailers are now beating expectations as well. this is being fueled by an upturn in RE transactions.

  104. skep-tic says:


    “Skep: Never had Caffrey’s. I’ll look for it on your recommendation.”

    it’s like a blonde guinness. very thick and creamy. pub lore holds that it makes you impotent in large doses, but possibly worth it.

  105. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    “”I happen to own gold and will be happy to buy more gold because I feel certain that gold price would only go up and not down”

    Jim Rogers 3/12

    Looks like Jim is buying again. His old buddy Soros is too.

  106. John says:

    Hate to break the news but the recession is over. If one more person this week calls me about a job I will just start yelling, the cuts were deep and hard but now the street is roaring back to life!!!!!!!

    Sad part is housing’s fall has been stopped by rising bonds, stocks, bonuses and raises making a comeback, if joblesness falls below 8% look for a new bubble brewing.

  107. veto that says:

    “I believe that very long term historical growth rates for house prices are not very predictive for the present day”

    skept, this is so key to any forecasting analysis, whether is a fancy regression, monte carlo simulation or just a gut feeling. Your point that the future holds a unique environment cant be stressed enough.
    I could make an argument that we are going to break from the past history, and thats what i try to do by using a lower price appreciation rate, but that still doesnt pick up all the differences in environment.

    You’ve made your case pretty well imo. I’ll put you up there with otteau. As a best case scenario, he could be onto something. I put his chances of calling the 12/2009 bottom correctly at about 30% but thats because im ‘pessimistic’. ha.

  108. Shore Guy says:

    Hello inflation? This from the BBC:

    “China’s demand for oil jumped by an “astonishing” 28% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.
    The body added that demand for oil in 2010 would be underpinned by rising demand from emerging markets, with half of all growth coming from Asia.
    But the IEA predicted demand in developed countries would fall by 0.3%.
    The IEA has increased its global oil demand forecast for 2010 by 1.8% to 86.6 million barrels a day.

  109. 3b says:

    #101 I believe we could easily be back to peak prices within a few years.

    And than what? Are you predicting that rates will stay low over the next few years? Are you assuming the stimulus which is set to expire shortly (home buyer tax credit, Fed MBS purchases) will be renewed? The only piece missing is employment?? Well that is a big piece in my opinion. Even with FHA and 3% down, the numbers are ugly at the median price (whatever that is now), and at the median NJ salary a buyer would spend their entire monthly pay check and a big chunk of their spouses pay check just to meet the monthly nut. That and of course skyrocketing property taxes, many towns this year will be seeing 10% and more increases. How many of these new FHA buyers can afford the additional 100 to 200 a month increase in payments?

    I am not saying you are wrong, but I just don’t see it. Although of course the country could have completely gone mad, and this could be the new reality. That being said, if this is the case, than those of us wishing to purchse again that have any sense, really have to question if we should.

  110. Mr Hyde says:


    The same sorts of comments can be found regularly in late 1920’s opinion pieces…

    (not a personal attack)

    I am even more optimistic than you at this point. I believe that very long term historical growth rates for house prices are not very predictive for the present day due to changes in the regulatory and financing landscape. Specifically, in the last decade or so, we entered the realm of the zero down house purchase and we are never going back. Three decades of consumer credit history show that American consumers will borrow the maximum they are allowed to borrow. This pumps up price appreciation, but makes it more volatile. I believe we are headed into another big upswing– the only missing piece is employment. When this improves in a year or so in an environment of low interest rates and zero down purchases, bubble mentality will be rampant again. I believe we could easily be back to peak prices within a few years.

  111. Jamil,

    Who the F cares?

    Make this your mantra:

    “A sh1t-load of Republicans voted for Obama because W was a moron for starting the war in Iraq.”

    Your team lost because of the behavior of it’s leader. Get over it already. You’ll get your chance again in 2016. Everything else is inconsequential, but you buy it hook line and sinker. Did you purchase any recent books by Beck or Limbaugh? Have you ordered your limited edition coins from the Franklin Mint yet? All politicians suck. The fact that you feel one side is perfect and the other side is incompetent makes you look as ignorant as the morons who think their town is the best, their schools are the best and their kids are the best. You can spew your facts all day long. You ain’t changing a damn thing. All you are effectively proving is how very deep your ignorance runs. Go ahead, write another check to finance the campaigns of your heros in the congress and senate. They need people like you to keep them in power so they can continue to ruin the country. This goes for both teams, of course. I really hope you don’t pull a Corey Haim when you finally see the light and realize the countless hours of opportunity that you have wasted worshiping your so-called political heros. I really feel sorry for you.

  112. Doyle says:



    You keep referencing 10% property tax increases. Is this definitely happening in RE, or other towns near you? Or are you just predicting based on everything were seeing? I would love to know what towns this is going to happen in.

    Not challenging it, really want to know if you have any info.

  113. veto that says:

    3b – I think that you are missing the biggest factor of all – Supply of homes. incomes and unemployment and rates are all just secondary factors that determine affordability.

    The fact that the banks have control of the shadow inventory is a huge variable that trumps everything. I dont see the mtm being removed or anything being done that will force banks to dump the properties and create a huge glut, which is what would need to happen if you were to see a double dip.

    kettle that quote at 111 is awesome if its really from the 1920s.

  114. Mr Hyde says:


    that quote is skeptic.

  115. skep-tic says:

    veto– not trying to criticize your analysis. It is in many ways more detailed than mine. My only point is that the most bearish predictions invariably seem to hinge on tighter credit, higher unemployment or some kind of financial catastrophe (e.g., dollar collapse).

    If we were going to return to the days of 20% downpayments, it would have already happened.

    Unemployment has most likely already peaked.

    The catastrophe scenario is interesting to talk about, but I think it offers little value in terms of planning. If it happens, we are all screwed.

    For better or worse, we remain in a world of speculation and leverage.

  116. Mr Hyde says:


    I have read a fair amount of material in doing some personal research where quotes very similar tho that were common in the mid to late 20’s when people responded to claims of excessive debt and inflated RE prices

  117. PGC says:

    #82 Shore

    You missed GWB and DI crossing the Rubicon. I would say that happened with Bush v Gore

  118. 3b says:

    #113 Everything I have been seeing and reading, in the local towns around me, are pointing to a potentially 10%, in some cases more, total tax increase (municipal, schools, county). Many of these towns are broke, with their surplus monies spent over the last few years with reckless abandon.

    We have been seeing 7 and 8% increases over the last 3 years. They would have been higher without the use of deferrals and gimmicks, which have now been exhausted.

  119. skep-tic says:

    on the tax issue, I think we have reached the breaking point. Increased taxes in any substantial degree will not be tolerated by voters. I believe that public unions have finally killed the golden goose just as the UAW did to the automakers.

  120. veto that says:

    “that quote is skeptic.”

    Kettle, Sorry for the confusion. I thought you were posting a quote from the 20s.
    I think skeptic’s points are pretty right on. The reason why is because in the 1920s there was prob no govt intervention at all and no effort to contain systemic risks, complete opposite of what we have now – which i think was his point. So i dont see them as apples to apples.

  121. 3b says:

    #116 Unemployment has most likely already peaked.

    That is not saying much. The only way I believe your scenario has any kind of chance of being true, is if the gov’t becomes permanently involved in all facets of the housing market.

  122. veto that says:

    “veto– not trying to criticize your analysis”

    Skept, i didnt take it that way at all. I think your outlook is right on.

    Dont be offended because your outlook is similar to Jeff Otteau’s. Im being sincere about that.
    That guy takes a lot of heat but thats only because he called bottom too early six times already. Although, the last time he called bottom, in jan, he may have been right or at least it seems that could possibly be the case.

  123. skep-tic says:

    ” The only way I believe your scenario has any kind of chance of being true, is if the gov’t becomes permanently involved in all facets of the housing market.”

    3b– that is indeed my main assumption

  124. PGC says:


    Still waiting for a real response on #266 from yesterday.

  125. 3b says:

    #120Increased taxes in any substantial degree will not be tolerated by voters.

    We are way past that point,a and the voters have no say in the matter. These increases will be done period.

    I think you are stretching here, and downplaying the imapct of 10 to 12k a year and more in property taxes on POS Capes.

    You canont have your scenario, and rising property taxes.

  126. veto that says:

    “doing some personal research where quotes very similar tho that were common in the mid to late 20’s when people responded to claims of excessive debt and inflated RE prices”

    Ket, i think you are going back to far.
    remember we were operating on a total different economic model back then – completely different on so many levels.

  127. 3b says:

    #123 Mr. Otteau too does not factor in property taxes either. A $1000 a month payment in taxes before touching the actual mtg pymt, is to me a huge factor.

  128. skep-tic says:


    Not offended. Otteau alone wouldn’t convince me. The data shows transactions surging across the northeast. And this is in an environment with double digit unemployment. pretty amazing when you think about it.

  129. Mr Hyde says:


    yes there are some big differences, but in the end human nature rarely changes. Human markets are driven by human behavior . The exact mechanics may be different but every bubble is always “different” or so they say until it craters.

  130. 3b says:

    #114 Call me old school, but I still believe income determines house prices. Inventory to me is secondary. The fact that we are discussing the potential for prices to rise, in an environment of high unemployment and zero wage growth, is to me astounding.

  131. veto that says:

    “The only way I believe your scenario has any kind of chance of being true, is if the gov’t becomes permanently involved in all facets of the housing market.”

    No, the govt just needs to intervene during the meltdown (fear) part and then when people see home prices rising again, the sheeple get optimistic (greedy) again and the govt can pull away and claim its a ‘free’ capitalistic market.

    We are already seeing people line up to buy homes, even if they just foreclosed or just lost a job – they want a home and they want it now. That type of sick mentality is hard to break. Some of it has been embedded as the result of multi generational brainwashing.

    And once the realtors get on the soap box talking about getting rich from a condo, or risk being left out in the cold, the brainwashed hamsters will line up in droves to ride the treadmill.

  132. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    For anyone looking for job/career change advice:


    You know who you are ;)


  133. 3b says:

    #130 Yeah the old it is different this time. That was then, but this is now and on and on. How often have we heard that over the centuries,and yet history has shown time and time again that the fundamentals don’t change.

  134. NJGator says:

    3b – We have personally seen the impact of 12-15k in taxes on POS Multi-Families and it has not been pretty.

  135. PGC says:

    #120 Skep

    “Increased taxes in any substantial degree will not be tolerated by voters.”

    I don’t think they will get much choice. Pay your tax or we sell your lein. I’m in a town were the GOP have a lock on the council. No D and one independant. They are not getting voted out of anything. The council elections get decided in the GOP primaries when they decide who is running

    Also isn’t it the case that if the school budget gets voted down it goes to the council to set it?.

  136. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Cindy… (yeah, forgot the post#)

    I thought “Lady Licker” was that category of sugary, fruity, umbrella laden c0cktails…


  137. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto 132

    Where’s a hungry rattlesnake when you need one?

  138. 3b says:

    #132No, the govt just needs to intervene during the meltdown (fear) part and then when people see home prices rising again, the sheeple get optimistic (greedy) again and the govt can pull away and claim its a ‘free’ capitalistic market

    Than really if the gov’t may be in and out of the market as you describe on a regular basis, than in effect, the govt is permanently involved in the market.

  139. 3b says:

    #136Also isn’t it the case that if the school budget gets voted down it goes to the council to set it?.

    Yes it goes to the council, the council makes a symbolic 1% or so cut,and than the budget is passed. End of discussion.

  140. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Finished “Atlas Shrugged”

    Ending sorta sucked but the overall book is great.


  141. veto that says:

    “#123 Mr. Otteau too does not factor in property taxes either”

    You are assuming there will be no mergers/ layoffs/ pension/ budget cuts. Which is a huge assumption. The fact that unemployment is so high is a reason why local govts may have their hands ties in raising property taxes. thats the difference from the early 90s in my opinion.
    Look at corzine getting voted out because of property tax issues.
    People are po’d. I still cant believe that my town voted down the new middle school this week. Im shocked. We need that school so badly – we are bursting at the seems and the kids are sitting in trailers, but you know what? im proud that people are getting po’d and i think we will see changes. So dont count on your property taxes doubling just yet.
    Your income taxes, yeah maybe…

  142. jamil van jones says:

    125 PGC: #266 was your rant about my misguided policies (let me guess, your political views are the correct ones). I provided total smack-down for Shore and his liberal buddies. No more creative, embarrassing arguments from libs (“but Nakasaki was a military target!”)

    If it is constitutional for a (Dem) President to slaughter millions of civilians in an attack for civilian city, how it can be unconstitutional for (GOP) President to order limited interrogation (using non-lethal techniquies, similar to what ever marine is subjected to during training) on illegal enemy combatants?

    As we know, Shore and libs have no actual arguments here. First they tried to bluff but when countered with actual arguments and presecents they have to go back to insult or silent mode.

    This was evident in the DOJ witch hunt by Shore’s ex-comrades. For example, one accusation they invented was that Yoo focused only in legal aspects while ignoring policy and moral advise. (This is not the job of DOJ lawyer, and besides, many regulations and state laws forbid lawyer to provide that kind of advise – and had Yoo tried to use moral arguments that would surely been another accusation by Shore’s comrades).

  143. 3b says:

    #129 The data shows transactions surging across the northeast.

    That I do not buy. The data in Trulia shows that the median house prce in my town increased over 200k or 45% in one year. That would be far more bubbly than the original bubble.

  144. 3b says:

    Well lets see how the market does for the rest of the Spring selling season, once the MBS purchases stop in 19 days, and the silly tax credit ends in 49 days.

    On a fun note, I will be spending my weekend drinking Smithwicks and Guiness,and the occasional Bud Light having a good time.

  145. veto that says:

    “#130 Yeah the old it is different this time. That was then, but this is now and on and on. How often have we heard that over the centuries”

    3b, It is very different this time.

    dot com, housing, to dollar/money bubble.
    This is still the upside of the dollar/liquidity bubble. they are going to blow it to high heaven imo.

    I think they will use it to spark a contagious bought of inflation and practically hit reset on the whole thing but that is years away in my opinion and in the mean time the economy will inflate.

    They did the complete opposite in the 1920/30s. So yes its way different this time. Totally different.

  146. veto that says:

    “than in effect, the govt is permanently involved in the market.”

    Its been the case for 50 years now.

  147. veto that says:

    “Otteau alone wouldn’t convince me.”

    Skeptic, by the way, all otteau did to come up with his forecast was pick a bottom and retreace along the same path that we recovered from after the 1988 crash. And why not? The govt seems convinced thats the answer to accomodate the banks.

    They’ve already made it clear that they arent going to let the banks fail so im thinking to myself, why even get excited about a 40% crash or more?

  148. Mr Hyde says:


    I think this all comes apart at some point like Clot’s metaphorical megaton neutron bomb. I cant say when that will happen although i do posit a guess as to the likely RE bottom in “real” terms.

    What is going on now makes Enron look like like a girlscout lemonade stand

    What happens when your entire banking sector and the federal government itself have all adopted enron practices as the standard.

  149. veto that says:

    “What is going on now makes Enron look like like a girlscout lemonade stand”

    Yes there is a huge case to be made here but you cant factor in a neutron bomb event, just like you cant accurately factor in any other event that creates an enormous seizmic shift.

    You want to read about corporate cheats, book cooking, greed and corruption? Look up the railroad companies of the 1800s. That displays the definition of all things shady corporacracy.

    This same system is what has produced successful economic growth over the last century so its going to take a crystal ball to time it correctly.

    And we only know about enron because they blew up and made the papers. How many other thousands of enrons wound down quietly and got away scott free. The system accomodates it. What we are seeing with the bank giveaways is not a new concept from that perspective.

  150. morpheus says:

    Jamil. Again you did not appreciate the irony of the shooting incident. Further, since a lot of the board members would love to “tie a hog leg on”, the incident was brought up to determine the parameters of justifable self defense and the use of deadly force.

    I do not recall if responded to question of whether the shooting was justified.

    This leads me to concclude that you are not an attorney. Anyone who had taken criminal law in law school would have had their intellectual curosity picqued by the fact scenario presented.

    If you are an attorney, tell me are you in private or public practice? how many domestic violence cases, violation of probation or violation of restraining order cases have you handled? (no coaching from the attorneys in the audience… all NJ practicing attorneys know why I have asked about this)

    Why do I bother. you will not respond in any way except to mouth fox news talking points. Please think outside that box.

  151. safeashouses says:

    I just looked up the taxes on my old townhouse. Property taxes have gone up 150% in ten years. For a school district with gangs.

  152. veto that says:

    Hyde, along with the neutron bomb events, we have to include massive oil shocks, world wars, pestilence, natural disasters, earthquakes, asteroids, economic collapse.

    And anyone who can build a model to accurately forecast those events could be right up there with nastrodamous. ya know?

  153. Mr Hyde says:


    They have gangs to deal with! ITS FOR THE CHILDREN!!!

  154. veto that says:

    “Property taxes have gone up 150% in ten years”

    Safe, What was the price performance over the same time period?

  155. Mr Hyde says:


    we agree on the inability to time what will inevitably be a nasty correction. Maybe its 2 years out maybe its 20……

  156. PGC says:


    And I suppose your politcal views are beyond reproach.

    Agsin you side step the question. If your believe that the president has total pleanary power in time of war will you give up your second amenedment rights in the name of the war on terror.

    For me your arguements don’t hold. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were acts of conventional warefare. They were attacks on the military/idustrial targets simialar to the bombing of the German citys by the allies and the bombing of London and Coventry by the Germans. The only differnece was the the bomb was far more effective than a constant bombing campaign.

    As for your limited interogation techniques. Call it what it is. Torture. Outlawed by the Geneva convention at times of war and by the constitution. Go take a look at how many times SCOTUS has raked the GWB administration over the coals.

    As for the marines. They sign away their rights when they join. They also allow the govenment to vaccinate them for anything deeemd fit, without the likes of FDA oversight. But thats a different topic.

  157. 3b says:

    #147 than in effect, the govt is permanently involved in the market.”

    I assumed you knew what I meant, but I will rephrase it.

    The gov’t is the housing market. And that has not been the case in the last 50 years.

  158. 3b says:

    #149 Ket/Mr. Hyde: I do nto recall, what is your tiem frame for the real estate bottom?

  159. Mr Hyde says:



  160. 3b says:

    #146It is very different this time.

    Yeah. And I am sure that is what others said at other times over the years, in trying to justify how that time was different. History has shown that it never is different. I will stand on the side of history.

  161. John says:

    wamu bonds phat today playas

  162. willwork4beer says:

    So many beer posts, so little time…

    Boddington’s – yum

    Guinness – yum!!! (Especially on draught)

    Never had Caffrey’s but its now on my tasting short list

    Smithwick’s – very nice and an excellent choice for breakfast, Doom.

    However, might I suggest Founder’s Breakfast Stout? Double chocolate, coffee, oatmeal stout. And its a full meal at 8.3%.

    Beer: Its not just for breakfast anymore. :)

  163. 3b says:

    #160 Ket: Thanks. I do not believe it will take that long, more like 2011-12 IMO. But we shall see. It will be interesting to see what happens after the expiration of the Fed MBS purchases, and the silly tax credit.

    Still amazed there is virtually no talk of the rapidly approaching expiration of both in the MSM.

  164. Mr Hyde says:


    i have 150 years of data that puts the average RE cycle at 18 years (peak to peak ).

    this cycle predicted 1989 as a peak and 2007 as a peak. following that would put the next peak at 2025 9 years post peak for an “average” bottom is 2016.

    The trend has nothing to say about the magnitude of said peak or trough, only the timing.

  165. 3b says:

    #164 Guinness – yum!!! (Especially on draught

    Best poured pints in bars would be on Mc Lean Ave in Yonkers.

  166. 3b says:

    #166 Understand. I just believe that this time around the insanity was worse, coupled with all the gov’t intervention, and the still dismal economic environemnt and it collapses on itself, making the bottom sooner.

  167. 3b says:

    #142The fact that unemployment is so high is a reason why local govts may have their hands ties in raising property taxes. thats the difference from the early 90s in my opinion

    They have no choice, most have deferred their pension obligs, and many are borrowing to meet current expensses, coupled with debt service pymts on existing debt, to name just a couple of items.

  168. veto that says:

    “The gov’t is the housing market. And that has not been the case in the last 50 years.”

    3b –
    my preference would be to say that the govt and the free market are the same market, which then could apply to any market. That is slightly different than what you are saying.

    And im sorry but to say the govt hasnt been in the market in the last 50 years is is just dead wrong.

    Look at fanny, freddy fhfa, etc. research va mortgage loans in the 40s/50s for ww2 soldiers, fha offering subsidies to banks in the 50s and then look at how much of the housing boom the fed govt directly subsidized(through fha) going back 50-60 years, especially the enourmous westward expansion of the 1940s and 1950s.
    The loosening of subprime standards started in the 80s.
    Did you know there was federal rent control in the 1940s? Dont hear much about that anymore huh? If those are not cases of govt intervention i dont know what is.

    Most of the feds power lies in its element of surprise and coercive tactics so dont expect them to come out and say “yes we intervene in housing markets. ok everyone, we are buying a load of mbs today, ready here we come!”

    Here is a nyt article talking about the us govt interfering in the private sector as a matter of course all throughout the last century, and these are only the ‘formal intervantions’.


  169. Mr Hyde says:


    from what i have looked at bottoms tend to be flat. so even if we bottomed out in 2012 we would be likely to ride along the bottom for a few years.

    My personal opinion is that there will be a violent downward move that will put the trend back on the more historical pattern more or less. mid 2011 to 2012 could be a very possible timing for such an event.


    I have found that when i put certain types of funny tasting mushrooms in my dinner, i tend to see the future ;)

  170. veto that says:

    “History has shown that it never is different. I will stand on the side of history.”

    3b – History has shown that there has not been a bigger crash in re in the last 80 years than we are experiencing right now.
    So to say that it wont be different this time, you are actually saying that prices must go up from here.

  171. jamil van jones says:

    157 PGC

    I appreciate your efforts to justify mass-murder by (Dem) president.

    As you know, when nuking japanese cities, it was decided to do high altitude detonation in order to maximise civilian casualties. The attacks had zero military purpose apart from creating the athmoshere of terror among civilians. (Had President wanted to destroy some factories, ground level nuke detonation might have made sense).

    Geneva convention applies to certain legal combatants (clearly defined in the convention). It dos not apply to others, e.g. to some random nutcase who shows up somewhere with a suicide belt.

    It may be the view of ACLU, UN and Al-Qaida 7 (or AQ 8 if we count Holder) that rock music, female guards and waterboarding is torture. This view does not restrict President. Also, congress could have declared waterboarding torture and ban it anytime (Pelosi knew this beforehand – but waved it). It is clearly within the constitutional authority of the Commander-in-Chief when conducting war, to order limited amount waterboarding for illegal enemy combatants.

    Anyway, I’m enjoying this that hard core leftist are arguing that Hiroshima/Nagasaki were valid military targets while non-lethal waterboarding on illegal enemy combatants is unconstitutional. I suppose Tom Hanks is right: japanese were different so US wanted to annihilate them all.

    Ah the irony.

  172. veto that says:

    “Veto, I have found that when i put certain types of funny tasting mushrooms in my dinner, i tend to see the future ;)”

    Hyde, ok, well then yes, of ocurse, if magic mushrooms are the main catalyst, the forecast is most likely accurate.

  173. veto that says:

    Hyde, skept, 3b,
    im glad that our real estate debate has not sunk to the mudslinging of the sorts that jamil has been desperately attempting to start all morning on the topic of politics.

  174. Shore Guy says:

    (mouth fox news talking point)


    Don’t waste your time on what is likely a 16 year old (or older who never “launched”) living I’m mommie’s basement. I have been on Fox pleanty of times and (while there is certainly a viewpoint) there are some very smart folks there.

    The numbers of ways in which the person you are engaging is uninformed (take casuality figures from the special weapon’s attacks on Japan, for instance) is huge.

    The law, and especially the law of war, is filled with nuance, and those who fail to see the shades of gray are, in the end, groping in the dark and their observations add nothing to reasoned debate.

    I was on an MSNBC program dealing with terrorism and engaging in, let’s call it a vigerous exchange of divergent views, with a guy who held views close to 180 degrees from mine. But, as he was bright, we had a great exchange and the audiace learned something. Interestingly, a few days later, a major terrorist attack happened a few later and my position was clearly vindicated.

    When smart people of good will and different viewpoints (heck even not-so-smart people of different viewpoints) engage in reasoned debate, we shed light on a subject. The key words are “good will” and “reasoned.”

  175. veto that says:

    “My personal opinion is that there will be a violent downward move that will put the trend back on the more historical pattern more or less. mid 2011 to 2012 could be a very possible timing for such an event.”

    ket, i can see this happening. Kind of like a late stage second leg down if the govt cant sustain a long term prop up? i can see something like that happening out a few years but i would also think that if we can get out of the woods over the next year or two then the worst case scenarios become less and less likely.

  176. 3b says:

    #163 Ket: Thanks!!I have to watch that again at home;with beer.

  177. veto that says:

    testy testy,
    China, slamming us for “our own human rights issues”


  178. 3b says:

    #176 The key words are “good will” and “reasoned

    We do not have that any more in this country. It is us vs. them, or you are either with us or against us.

  179. 3b says:

    #175 im glad that our real estate debate has not sunk to the mudslinging of the sorts

    I come here exactly because it does nto. Although from time to time I get frustrated and annoyed.

    As far as jamil I just do not undestand why he cannot see that both sides are rotten to the core.

  180. 3b says:

    #172 So to say that it wont be different this time, you are actually saying that prices must go up from here.

    No. Actually what I was trying to say was that history says things are never differnt, and as such prices will continue to fall just like the last boom and bust. However, since this boom was insane, the price declines will be far larger, than in prior busts.

  181. 3b says:

    #171 I would agree with that.

  182. Shore Guy says:

    “you are either with us or against us”

    Shrub? Shrub? Is that you?

  183. jamil van jones says:

    176: no amount of BS will change it that in your view, there was nothing nuanced in any of the opinions/memos conducted by non-liberal. Your attack on Yoo was disgraceful and dishonest (maybe you did not know the final DOJ conclusion and only trusted Obamaweek article, but still). You are seriously arguing that mass-murder ordered by Dem President is clearly constitutional and waterbording illegal enemy combatants (while approved by Nancy Pelosi) is clearly unconstitutional and biggest threat to this country. The only conclusion is that you are dishonest, partisan hack.

    Given the DOJ witch hunt which was well exposed in WSJ, I’m afraid there are more people like you at DOJ.

    Your comments how you views were somewhere vindicated is just pathetic.

  184. confused in NJ says:

    Faber and Mish: We’re Doomed and Washington Can’t Do Anything About It
    Posted Mar 12, 2010 12:37pm EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Politics

    Washington is patting itself on the back for having orchestrated an amazing economic recovery. But Washington lawmakers are a delusional bunch of boneheads, say Marc Faber and Mike “Mish” Shedlock, editor of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report and investment advisor at SitkaPacific Capital Management, respectively.

    The economy is NOT recovering, they say, and the U.S. faces a depressing “eventuality” of either crushing deflation (Shedlock) or runaway inflation (Faber). The timing and type of this eventuality is uncertain, say the gurus, but they are certain it’s too late for America to change course.

    “It’s beyond repair — it’s too late,” to avert fiscal disaster, Faber declares.

    “The day of reckoning has arrived. The question is how long it takes to play out.”

    This grim outlook doesn’t mean you’re helpless. Faber recommends individuals prepare for doomsday by buying gold, owning assets abroad and buying property outside of major cities.

  185. sas says:

    got a RE question for ye gurus out there:

    my friend Rick (i call him slick rick), calls me last night about 2100 at night.

    asks me a question.

    He bought a little spread, he says after he closes on the place, its customary to give the seller 48hrs to move stuff out.

    I say no way slick Rick. If they damage the joint on the way out, or during the move….even unintentionally..your stuck with the bills. I know you can do recourse and take to court, but still…I wouldn’t do it. I want them out them out the day the joint is mine.

    so, what you all think?

    which point is more valid?


  186. safeashouses says:

    #154 Hyde,

    The kids will get a kind of schooling graydon and Ellory will never obtain.

  187. veto that says:

    3b, if someone doesnt fully agree with every aspect of my home price outlook, i usually feel an overwhelming urge to body slam them onto concrete.

    Is that a problem do you think?

  188. safeashouses says:

    #155 Veto,

    The prices went up 140% from 2000 to 2006, and are now dropping like a rock in my old development. Down to late 2003/early 2004 prices. Still about 90% more than we paid in 2000.

  189. skep-tic says:

    further decline is premised on a new catalyst since the declines have basically slowed to a stop at this point. I believe calling a bottom now accurately reflects the facts at hand today. I am curious what people think would cause further decline short of all out collapse of the federal gov’t

  190. PGC says:

    #173 Jamil

    I’m not justifing it. I am stimply saying that it was covered under conveitonal warfare. It didn’t break the Hague protocols. There has been 60 years of debate on the subject with no defintive conclusion and I don’t think there will ever be one.

    You throw up another strawman of Pelosi knowing about waterboarding. That is one of the funniest retractions I have seen in years. The allegation was that Pelosi and Bob Graham as Chair of the Senate Intelligence were briefed by the C1A. Pelosi denied it. Graham who was a ana1 retent1ve note taker, went back to his notebooks that he had donated to the University of Florida and proved the alleged meetings never took place. The C1A then came up with some Administratve Error excuse that the meetings were scheduled to take place as they had assumed they did take place.

    Again I have to remind you that I am not leftist, I am centerist, although I realise I am way to the left of you out on that tree branch.

  191. 3b says:

    #191 I believe calling a bottom now accurately reflects the facts at hand today.

    I would think you woudl at elast wait until tow of the big props are removed over the next month or so, before calling a bottom.

    As far as facts, I am not really sure what facts you are referring to. One of the so called facts for my area is a complete falsehood. The so called facts are suspect to say the least.

  192. 3b says:

    #189 Is that a problem do you think?

    Depending on who you want to body slam, it could be.

  193. veto that says:

    prices up over 100% in ten years, prop taxes up 140% in ten years.
    Where is the problem? It was for the children.

    People will still line up to buy homes like its a one way ticket to wealth.

    The higher prices go and the more prop taxes climb, will just translate into people buying smaller homes, not less homes.

    Most buyers wont even ask what the prop tax bill is until a month after they move in.

    But then again im no realtor so im prob speaking out of school.

  194. 3b says:

    #186 buying property outside of major cities.

    To which I would add outside of major cities, and their surrounding suburbs. And with low to moderate property taxes.

  195. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Im thinking Plaza Accord 87 type of deal. Currencies revalued, debt repudiated, with the dollar getting a 30-50% haircut.

    Dollar will also lose world reserve currency status which would be replaced with SDRs. The SDRs at first wouldnt be introduced as currency to the public.

    Countries would dump US treasuries in favor of SDRs. The IMF would require countries to have a certain amount of SDRs in reserve. Those that fall below that level would be charged a penalty.

    The goal of one world government and monetary system would then be complete. The only thing missing is the right crisis to get it implemented.

    Crisis: Whats the difference between a neutron bomb and a CDS bomb? They will toppple Greece and the rest of Europe followed by the Sterling and finally the US dollar by way of the states ie California.

  196. “Please think outside that box.”

    He can not. He will not. He is part of a collective. He is like a Branch Davidian. Or better yet, a kibbutz of the stupid and ignorant.

    Lt. Commander Geordi La Forge: If this works the way I think it will, once the invasive program starts spreading, it’ll only be a matter of months before the Borg suffer total systems failure.
    Captain Jean-Luc Picard: Comments?
    Doctor Beverly Crusher: Question. What exactly is “total systems failure”?
    Lt. Commander Data: The Borg are extremely computer-dependent. A systems failure will destroy them.
    Doctor Beverly Crusher: I just think we should be clear about that. We’re talking about annihilating an entire race.
    Captain Jean-Luc Picard: Which under most circumstances would be unconscionable. But as I see it, the Borg leave us with little choice.
    Commander William T. Riker: I agree. We’re at war.
    Doctor Beverly Crusher: There’s been no formal declaration of war.
    Counselor Deanna Troi: Not from us, but certainly from them. They’ve attacked us at every encounter.
    Captain Jean-Luc Picard: They’ve declared war on our way of life. We are to be assimilated.
    Doctor Beverly Crusher: But even in war there are rules. You don’t kill civilians indiscriminately.
    Commander William T. Riker: There are no civilians among the Borg.
    Captain Jean-Luc Picard: Think of them as a single collective being. There’s no one Borg who is more an individual than your arm or your leg.
    Doctor Beverly Crusher: How convenient.
    Captain Jean-Luc Picard: Your point, Doctor?
    Doctor Beverly Crusher: When I look at my patient, I don’t see a collective consciousness, I don’t see a hive. I see a living, breathing boy who has been hurt and who needs our help. And we’re talking about sending him back to his people as an instrument of destruction.
    Captain Jean-Luc Picard: It comes down to this: we’re faced with an enemy who are determined to destroy us, and we have no hope of negotiating a peace. Unless that changes, we are justified in doing anything we can to survive.

  197. confused in NJ says:

    This Blog should be interesting 12/19/2012, 24 hours before 12/20/2012, as you will finally know the right and wrong of many arguments. Of course the Great Equalizer will render many arguments moot.

  198. veto that says:

    191 – Skept,

    you’ve been saying alot of things that i wish i said. 191 is just another example. couldnt have said that better.

    I wonder why we have such a similar thought process/outlook on this subject?
    You must be a fulbright scholar too??

  199. Mr Hyde says:


    People will still line up to buy homes like its a one way ticket to wealth.

    Just one more zombie added to the horde.

    …Note to self: need more shotgun ammo.

  200. If multifamily homes in Montclair are any indicator of the greater housing market, then we are still not at bottom.

    Saw a recent one that was listed at 700K sell for 400K two or three weeks ago.

  201. Anon E. Moose says:


    The ‘custom’ as I understand it is that the buyer does their walk-through inspection the day BEFORE the closing, and should reasonably assure themselves that the place will be secure (and vacant) until after closing.

    If the sellers want to rent the place from me after closing (even for 48 hours) they better be prepared to pay a fee and leave a security deposit.

    Everything in the premises as of the closing belongs to the buyer (not true – but posession is 9/10 of the law, as they say). My FIRST stop after leaving the closing table is to the premises to have all locks changed.

  202. Anon E. Moose says:

    Bretheren Nom, Morpheus, et al.;

    In case this is of interest

    WSJ: Darby & Darby, New York IP Firm, Is Shutting Down

  203. jamil van jones says:

    192 pgc: “on the subject with no defintive conclusion and I don’t think there will ever be one”

    at least on this board the liberals were specifically defending it with dubious arguments (“military target!”).

    So potentially nuking millions of people in civilian city is gray area, but waterboarding few illegal enemy combatants (with the potential of exposing enemy’s 9/11 style mass-casualty attack) is clearly unconstitutional and lawyers who drafted the memos need to be criminally prosecuted?

    Glad we got that clear where the gray area lies. No nuances there.

    I’m also sure you and Shore have consistent view (compared to Libby incident) that Holder lied when he forgot to mention his pro-Al Qaida memo.

    As for Pelosi and waterboarding: Even State Media does not deny it anymore. Pelosi could have banned or rejected it anytime.

    “WASHINGTON (CNN) — A source close to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi now confirms that Pelosi was told in February 2003 by her intelligence aide, Michael Sheehy, that waterboarding was actually used on CIA detainee Abu Zubaydah
    This appears to contradict Pelosi’s account that she was never told waterboarding actually happened, only that the administration was considering using it.”

  204. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:



    Or bigger homes on smaller lots. Thats the trend Im seeing at the shore.

  205. veto that says:

    Confused, do not going near this blog anywhere in the vacinity of 12-2012. thats just asking for a mental break down.

  206. Mr Hyde says:


    my mentions of 2012 have nothing to do with the mayan calendar, just to be clear.


    Are you suggesting that Al’s illumiati are correct and we have protect ourselves at all costs by “dealing” with the sheep?

  207. confused in NJ says:

    Captain Jean-Luc Picard: It comes down to this: we’re faced with an enemy who are determined to destroy us, and we have no hope of negotiating a peace. Unless that changes, we are justified in doing anything we can to survive.

    He could be talking about the War on Terrorism and WaterBording.

  208. safeashouses says:

    #196 Veto,

    Check out the sold history on this condo in my old area.


    I looked at a condo in this development in 2000. It was listed for 106k.

  209. 3b says:

    #196 Well as A Rhodes Scholar t I would totally diasagree. I also totally disagree with skpetic too at 191.

    I would hope your post is in jest,and you truly do not believe that scenario.

    Poor skept, alas he has gone over to the dark side. Maybe because the Crocus is in bloom?

  210. veto that says:

    “Saw a recent one that was listed at 700K sell for 400K two or three weeks ago.”

    stu, you really must post these comp killers. There really is no greater satisfaction than a 35% haircut from peak.

  211. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:


    Confused, Im sure by 2012 (if we make it that far) most of us wont be talking about rifles and handguns.

    We will be talking about bug out bags, HAM radios, and situation reports. Of course the internet might not be available.

  212. 3b says:

    #207Or bigger homes on smaller lots

    With the same high tax rates, they just change the tax rate. They collect what they need to collect.

  213. confused in NJ says:

    Interesting that IRAQ & Afghanistan will be more expensive and time consuming then WWII. Probably because the enemy is both within and without the US. In WWII they incarcerated the Fifth Columnists.

  214. Mr Hyde says:


    Your a Rhodes Scholar as well? Can you believe the temerity of those lowly fullbrights to actually suggest they might right while one of us was wrong?

  215. veto that says:

    Al, you have to see “Life after oil” on national geographic.

    They take you through a doomsday scenario where oil runs out and it details all the side effects on the economy. It ends bye suggesting that we will all eventually live in cities along rail road tracks. Lol.

  216. confused in NJ says:

    214.Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
    March 12, 2010 at 2:14 pm

    Confused, Im sure by 2012 (if we make it that far) most of us wont be talking about rifles and handguns.

    We will be talking about bug out bags, HAM radios, and situation reports. Of course the internet might not be available

    Maybe so, more and more bad things seem to be coalescing around that date. Maybe the Mayans had Foresight? We shall see, or not. Congress will remain blissfully ignorant, working on the next election campaign, until such time as they join Ted K. stocking the Fires.

  217. Confused (210):

    I’m convinced that W formed his entire Al-Queda position based on Star Trek TNG.

    I wouldn’t have expected anything less from a draft dodging former drunk who channels Jesus and who married a librarian who had recently driven over her ex-boyfriend.

    This IS Jamil’s idol.

  218. Mr Hyde says:


    I saw that show, and while entertaining it had some big holes in their logic.

  219. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:



    There is a DVD out there called collapse that deals with oil running out.

    “A look at the life of Michael Ruppert, a former Los Angeles police officer turned independent reporter. Michael predicted the current financial crisis in his self-published newsletter”


  220. 3b says:

    #217 It is appaliing!!!

  221. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    “I believe calling a bottom now accurately reflects the facts at hand today.”

    Yep, now put it in a newsletter and become a millionaire

  222. veto that says:

    If you want to have some fun, type doomsday into your search browser and you basically wont make it to bed because each article will be more believable than the next.

  223. Mr Hyde says:


    “I believe calling a bottom now accurately reflects the facts at hand today.”

    I disagree, the seasonality patterns over the last decade would suggest to be sure that this is not a fluke you would have to wait for the increasing seasonal pattern to repeat. in other words you wouldnt have a sound argument for at least another yer

  224. jamil van jones says:

    261 confused: at that time, both political parties, media and hollywood wanted the US to win. How times change..

    Also, I remember the german saboteurs who – thank god – had their Miranda rights read on, and pro-bono representation by the fine lawyers who imediately afterwars took top-level DOJ jobs without disclosing their pro-nazi pro bono work. Now was Shore Sr one of the saboteurs or one of the DOJ lawyers donating free services to them?

  225. veto that says:

    “I saw that show, and while entertaining it had some big holes in their logic.”

    Kettle, dont tell Al that. He turned the show on and thought it was real breaking news so he freaked out, ran next door real quick and shot his neighber for stealing his rice reserves.

  226. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:


    Regarding end of the world scenarios give this one a try.


    A lot of folks believe this guy. I call BS.

  227. Painhrtz says:

    The funny thing about the oil alarmists, society won’t gring to a halt it will change but not stop. Humans adapt it is one of the things we are good at well and not seeing the forest for the trees.

    We can make diesel out of waste oil, CNG from methane collected from farm and human waste, energy from coal derivatives. Dow has been planning for the end of petrochemical for years they have a whole R&D facility devoted to biologically sourced plastics. Oil running out doesn’t worry me, the rest of the $hit going on does.

  228. Painhrtz says:

    Jamil you are aware most of those sabatouers were hung, right?

    Now back to ignoring you.

  229. veto that says:

    “I disagree, the seasonality patterns over the last decade would suggest to be sure that this is not a fluke”

    Kettle, From the data that im seeing, we already broke that seasonal pattern and then last three years are basicaly all over the place.

    On a yoy basis, April through Dec was the only 9 month period where yoy changes were all higher than Apr.

    For examople, I expect Jan prices to continue lower seasonally but the tax credit expiration will prob pump up the feb march numbers to make seasonality out of whack. Thats my guess.

    Look at these charts.


  230. 3b says:

    Retail sales up (just ignore the big downward revision for janaury), but consumer sentiment is down.

  231. relo says:

    187: I’d want everything out to enable a walk-through prior to close. I’d expect the purchaser would be on the hook for any subsequent damage.

  232. Yikes says:

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    March 11, 2010 at 12:22 pm

    Now, if you are suggesting that Mexico would intervene militarily in response to a USG crackdown on illegals (inconceivable, but hey, we raised it), well, we may see a new record for the world’s shortest war. I mean, does Mexico have an air superiority fighter??? Didn’t think so.

    mexico’s best change – send in the drug lords, they have better weapons

  233. Yikes says:

    Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
    March 11, 2010 at 12:45 pm

    I just don’t see how leasing makes sense unless you’ve got money to burn.

    Then again, I’m driving a 15 year old car that costs me next to nothing to insure and cost me $13,700. It still gets close to 40 mpg as well. Only repair outside of routine maintenance was the alternator. She’ll be going up to Windham this weekend.

    Basically an issue of giving $ to the IRS or giving money to lease a nicer car. (at least if you’re a small business owner, as i am.)

    have no car payment (haven’t had one in like 6 yrs). Tax guy said if i lease a car, he can get about 40% of the payment written off since it will be a business vehicle.

  234. Barbara says:

    its not even the prices that get me anymore, it the exceedingly crappy housing stock throughout the state the does not take the twee moldings, hollowcore doors and 80s pecan cabinets when pricing and the stupids that are buying it. I really do give up.

  235. Anyone think that the municipal layoffs across NJ are going to have a large impact on the unemployment numbers?

    Just a thought.

    If Montclair lays off 60 in the schools and probably 15 or so in the municipal government. That works out to 75 people. Montclair has a population of 38,000. If this is repeated throughout every town in NJ the numbers are staggering.

    Extrapolating the data to all of NJ, it works out to an additional 165,300 new layoffs for 2010. There were only 114,100 layoffs in 2009. I do hope my back of the envelope math is wrong, but I’m pretty sure that it is not.

  236. House Whine says:

    233- This is just a guess but do you think maybe people were spending a bit more because they have delayed purchasing and now certain items just have to be bought. For example, I can wait no longer to purchase a new mattress- I finally splurged last week on one. It’s not that I can now afford it and before I couldn’t, it’s simply that I really can’t delay it anymore. Does that make any sense?

  237. Interesting Yikes. Do you only drive your car for business? ;)

  238. skep-tic says:

    international law is BS. it is written and interpreted by those with the biggest guns. and there is no supranational enforcement mechanism short of war.

  239. I think this recovery talk that is occurring here today is complete hooey. Has anyone here, besides John who is connected to government juiced up Wall Street seen a recovery in their line of work? I will be the first to admit that the bleeding has slowed to a trickle, but we haven’t paid for the stimulus yet nor have we witnessed any kind of a recovery. Just a slowing of the pain. Or is that a numbness?

  240. veto that says:

    Barb, Bingo! That is the ultimate effect when the banks control supply of the housing.
    Im just as frustrated as you sound about that same exact thing.
    And its so obvious that the banks are hoarding. The only thing out there is crap. People go crazy for anything that is half decent.
    It reminds me of the eddie murphy stand up with the saltine and ritz cracker bit.

  241. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:



    I agree. I drive through those train towns ie Westfield, Summit, etc. The towns are nice but the houses are just terrible. How people spend 500k on those POS capes is beyond me.

    The only worse than the POS cape is the POS circa 1975 Bilevel. Those ugly bilevels are all over NJ.

  242. 3b says:

    #245How people spend 500k on those POS capes is beyond me.

    Because they are 400K POS Capes now.

  243. Barbara says:

    that bit is 2nd only to the house burger bit

  244. veto that says:

    “I think this recovery talk that is occurring here today is complete hooey.”

    Stu, everyone here seems to be in agreement that prices will continue to go down (except frank). The only disagreements are on how much more.
    And they range from 9% to 42%.

    And i see your point but i dont agree with the logic of that question you asked as a reason. If you used that to predict the stock market a year ago, it would have been misleading.

  245. Barbara says:

    those tract houses built in the late 60s-70s are what I grew up in, crap then and even crappier now. They should be bulldozed, not purchased.

  246. hughesrep says:


    It’s not Wall Street, but I’m starting to see some construction movement in very limited areas.

    Government money has been the only money moving anything for 12-18 months, hospitals and schools were the only construction work going.

    Some private money is starting to fund some hotels, senior facilities, and apartments.

    Nothing like a few years ago, but it is starting to shake loose. Are these people the early adopters or the tail end of the fools? I don’t know.

  247. 3b says:

    #242 Stu: Contrary to John’s declarations, the “street” is not doing any real hiring either. And I know that for a fact.

  248. veto that says:

    serious question for the group, if I post the most posts today, do i win anything?

  249. 3b says:

    #248 Stock market, and teh economy are too very different things.

  250. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:



    This isnt a recovery. The collapse will be total and cataclysmic. Theres no avoiding it and it will be here very soon.

    The ideal situation is as follows:
    1. Renter with a job in NJ
    2. Secondary land or home in PA.
    3. Reserves in physical bullion.
    4. Armed to the teeth with equally armed friends and family.
    5. An in demand skill set ie farming, medical, animal husbandry, gunsmith. mechanic etc.
    6. 1 year store of essentials especially fuel.

    If you have all those covered you are set and probably will be the feudalistic rulers of the decades to come.

  251. 3b says:

    #250 Hotels??

  252. chicagofinance says:

    Sister-in-law got whacked. She worked for the local school district. She made an utterly piss amount of money, but the the family will feel it because the benes were literally unbelievable. No big shakes as the husband has a great job at a large well-known publicly traded corporation.

    Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
    March 12, 2010 at 3:14 pm

    Anyone think that the municipal layoffs across NJ are going to have a large impact on the unemployment numbers?

    Just a thought.

    If Montclair lays off 60 in the schools and probably 15 or so in the municipal government. That works out to 75 people. Montclair has a population of 38,000. If this is repeated throughout every town in NJ the numbers are staggering.

    Extrapolating the data to all of NJ, it works out to an additional 165,300 new layoffs for 2010. There were only 114,100 layoffs in 2009. I do hope my back of the envelope math is wrong, but I’m pretty sure that it is not.

  253. skep-tic says:

    look at where we were a year ago vs now. all asset classes have massively recovered. all were arguably in bubble territory at one point in the last 3 yrs. so was real estate. why won’t real estate recover too?

  254. skep-tic says:

    #250 Hotels??


    yes– I know people who are starting a PE fund to flip hotels. Seriously.

  255. 3b says:

    #138 I really do give up.

    Don’t a little more patience. You may not get the quality/type of house you might like, but you will get the POS at a much lower price.

  256. veto that says:

    “#248 Stock market, and teh economy are too very different things.”

    3b – This is to my point.
    The housing market and economy are two different things.

  257. Mr Hyde says:


    I hear that john hired a new “head” assistant. So there may be some hiring going on.

  258. 3b says:

    #257why won’t real estate recover too?

    Stocks and bonds to real estate? very, very different things. Apples to oranges.

  259. prtraders2000 says:

    I was working on the financials for a small 2nd generation family owned wholesaler in Morris county this week. They had an operating loss of 250k on 3 mil in sales. The owner said things are slowly improving. There is no way they will be around next year at their cash burn rate. Other businesses are in similar shape. They survived the recession only to die a slow death during the slow climb out.

  260. Mr Hyde says:

    My wish list just got longer:

    Remington Model 750 Woodsmaster

  261. 3b says:

    #260 The housing market and economy are two different things.

    I disagree, storng economy strong housing market. dead economy, dead housing market.

  262. skep-tic says:

    I suppose I am now what was once referred to here as a “Kannekt Klown”…

  263. Housing Purgatory says:

    Some legal help needed..
    Commercial Lease – Couldn’t pay the Rent.
    LL got a posession judgement, Our company filed for BK and left the space. Now getting sued for a personal guarantee signed in 99 on the original lease for 2 years. all lease extensions since 2001.
    just cant win…
    Any ideas??

  264. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:


    I have seen POS capes go for more than 400k recently with multiple bids.

  265. 3b says:

    #261 Will he be doing a lot of hand holding?

  266. Mr Hyde says:

    Al 254

    i got 3 out of 6, how am i doing.

  267. hughesrep says:


    Yes hotels. Most of my business is in SJ and Philly. Philly is hotel deficient.


    Most posts for the day get’s an onion from John.

  268. Painhrtz says:

    Get it in 270 Hyde

  269. veto that says:


    Stu, the one significant green shoot that i see in housing is this new home development in my town, which was seized up for two years solid and then all of the suddent in the last month, since the weather started to break, they have started digging the foundation on about 10 lots.
    This is out in mercer county farm land. Where are people getting 700k-800k for these homes? And this is after recent years of many new developments so its not like it was pent up.

  270. Mr Hyde says:


    Extrapolating the data to all of NJ, it works out to an additional 165,300 new layoffs for 2010. There were only 114,100 layoffs in 2009. I do hope my back of the envelope math is wrong, but I’m pretty sure that it is not.

    For estimates like that a 50% rule isnt a bad guess. SO guess that the actual lay-offs are 50% of what you calculated, about 80K. Still pretty bad

  271. Mr Hyde says:


    my thought as well, a nice flat trajectory.

  272. Mr Hyde says:


    Can i be a warlord? I never really cared for the title of Baron….. Lord Hyde…. I like it.

  273. veto that says:

    “Most posts for the day get’s an onion from John.”

    umm, is that a used onion?

  274. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde added bonus it doesn’t get snapped up like 30/06 and is just as common. It will also take down everything from a moose to a woodchuck.

  275. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    Dude housing market isn’t anywhere near a bottom unless you expect it to drag along where it currently is for a decade or more:)

  276. veto that says:

    How convenient that just before the govt is ready to sell their stake in the bank that has sold off every asset but their ticker, they get all these rave reviews. hip hip… hurray. bravo citi. bravo.

    This is your cue that the dump phase is next up.

    How Citi, Pandit Turned Themselves Around- CNBC
    Just a year after being relegated to the pile of near-dead banks crushed by the credit crisis, Citigroup is back.


  277. veto that says:

    “Dude housing market isn’t anywhere near a bottom unless you expect it to drag along where it currently is for a decade or more”

    Juice, It bottomed in 1991, 3 years after the 1988 crash, and then price appreciated each year from there. Why couldn’t it do something similar again?

  278. Nomad says:

    #273 – activity heating up a bit but it’s no different than a child getting a small burst of energy then petering out and going to sleep.

    By June or July, it will be on the decline again – a little upswing before the 2nd dip.

    Plus, as more folks burn through their unemployment, and homes get foreclosed, and unemployment remains high and more savings gets depleted and more and more, the economy will struggle perhaps more in the later half of this year than at the bottom of the trough (sp) in dip #1.

  279. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:



    Thats about all I got covered too. No point in being wealthy if you live like a slave.

  280. Ben says:

    The only way the housing market bottoms is if they bulldoze all the current shadow inventory. Maybe I’ll shut up. I don’t want to give them any bright ideas.

  281. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [254] al

    That’s my goal for the Nompound.

  282. veto that says:

    Ben, thats true but there is no difference between bulldozing and just keeping off the market, which is what they are doing.

  283. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [267] housing purgatory,

    Yes, get a decent lawyer.

    I don’t do this sort of law myself, and our firm may be a bit pricy for you.

    But I can certainly make a referral.


  284. 3b says:

    #281 Juice, It bottomed in 1991, 3 years after the 1988 crash, and then price appreciated each year from there. Why couldn’t it do something similar again?

    Not to beat a dead horse, but it did not, at least not in Blue ribbon bergen co towns, it did not bottome until 1997.

    I purchased peak 1987, 3 years later, on several occassions and prices were awful. I would have taken a 40% hit. So I stayed until 1997 when I sold it for $2500 less than I paid for it, and that was with substanial improvements.

    I know people who sold coops/condso at 50% less than they paid, and others who finally sold their coops/condos in 1999-2000, for what they paid in 1987.

    Prices did not rise in Bergen Co every year form 1991 on. I was there I and many others lived it. The market was dead for years.

  285. 3b says:

    #268 I have seen POS capes go for more than 400k recently with multiple bids.

    That is ebcasue they used to be 500K. Silly buyers think they are getting a good deal.

  286. Barbara says:

    I’ll back up 3b in Middlesex, market bottomed in 90 and was dead till 99. DEAD. I know because that’s when I bought my stuff.

  287. 3b says:

    #279 Agreed.

  288. 3b says:

    #266 Nah, we are just sad to see you have crossed over to the dark side. You will be missed.

  289. skep-tic says:

    $10 wine of the week– portuguese red


  290. veto that says:

    “Not to beat a dead horse, but it did not, at least not in Blue ribbon bergen co towns, it did not bottome until 1997.”

    3b, that is your anectdata, im refering to the region as a whole represented by case shiller index. Certain downs may have done better or worse, Im not referring to ‘your block’ now or then. Im referring to the regional area.

    For example, MikeinWaiting is seeing 40% off peak out in vernon. does that mean nj is 40% off peak?

    Furthermore, you say you bought in 1987 (at peak) and then it took ten years to get your money back. Well that seems to support the Case shiller index performance – to a tee. Note that prices rose about 15% from 1991 to 1998.

  291. veto that says:

    “I’ll back up 3b in Middlesex, market bottomed in 90 and was dead till 99.”

    Barbara, thats pretty much exactly what Case Shiller index shows.

  292. fly-over says:


    The map of the new shoreline is amusing. The MSL over much of Wisconsin is ~ 1000ft.

    If it is going, so is much of the rest of the US, including most of the Ozarks.

  293. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:

    “Juice, It bottomed in 1991, 3 years after the 1988 crash, and then price appreciated each year from there. Why couldn’t it do something similar again?”

    First of all you’re wrong as pointed out above. Secondly I can go on for days about all the headwinds for housing (unemployment, wage deflation, lack of access to credit, end of creative financing, property tax increases, shadow inventory). All the Feds have done by taking over the GSE’s is delay the invevitable additional 30-40% haircut.

  294. Barbara says:

    I misunderstood, I thought you were saying that it slowly ticked up in the 90s according to data?

  295. Barbara says:

    ? should be . My grammar is shameful.

  296. d2b says:

    Teacher writes loser on kid’s test.


    I remember reading about a college professor who would staple Burger King applications to failing math tests.

  297. veto that says:

    Peak in 1987
    Bottom in 1991
    And then in 1998 prices were basically even with 1988.

    So yes, from the bottom in 1991, prices increased about 2% per year until 1998, although it didnt seem like it because the price of wages, bread and gas increased at around 2.5% per year.

  298. veto that says:

    “First of all you’re wrong as pointed out above.
    Secondly I can go on for days about all the headwinds for housing.”

    Juice he he,

    First of all you havent proven anything wrong but you have reverted to talking in circles.

    Secondly, we have already discussed your so called ‘headwinds’. See how that convo went above.

    Finally, i didnt call bottom so get your facts straight.

  299. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [270] hyde,

    Damn. I only got 2 of 6.

  300. Ben says:

    Mish is lying through his teeth in that interview with Faber. He claims that he went long the S&P at 700. All his writings at the time say different. In fact, he told people treasuries were a buy at the market top for treasuries and has been 100% wrong ever since.

  301. condobust says:

    #211, interesting.

    Has anybody here watched the condo market going back 20 years?

    I’m curious to know how the early 90s condo and coop bust compares to the current bust.

  302. veto that says:

    condo bust, grim posts the condo index from case shiller every once in a while but im not sure if it goes back to 1987 or not. From what i remember it pretty much tracks the overall index but im sure there was some divergeance, i just cant remember where.

  303. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:


    Can’t argue with you re Mish. He was not long at 700. Faber was saying that he expected a big drop prior to this March.

  304. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:


    Actually now that I think about it Mish did get long at 700. He had an article based on Elliot Wave; said take profits as downside had ended. I’ll see if I can dig it up.

  305. NJGator says:

    I guess this is the conservative, straight, Mormon version of Eric Massa.

    Republican State House Majority Leader Kevin Garn Admits Paying Woman, Who was 15 at the Time, $150,000 to Keep Silent

    Utah’s House majority leader said late Thursday he paid a woman $150,000 to keep silent about going nude “hot-tubbing” with her when she was minor a quarter century ago.

    In a shocking statement on the House floor, Kevin Garn, 55, a Republican from Layton, said he paid her to keep quiet about the incident during his unsuccessful U.S. congressional bid in 2002, but did not have s*xual contact with her.

    House members gave him thunderous applause for his honesty and embraced him. As majority leader, Garn was the House’s point man on a series of legislative ethics bills this year that were designed to restore the public’s faith in the Legislature after recent accusations of bribery.

    “While this payment felt like extortion, I also felt like I should take her word that the money would help her heal. She agreed to keep this 25-year-old incident confidential. Now that this issue is coming up again, it is apparent to me that this payment was also a mistake,” Garn said.

    “Although we did not have any s*xual contact, it was still clearly inappropriate – and it was my fault,” Garn said.

    “I apologize to you, my colleagues, for any shame this brings to the Utah State Legislature. I have tried my best to serve my constituents in a way that brings honor to them and makes this great state better than the way I found it. I hope to continue to do that,” Garn said.


  306. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [309] gator

    For 150K in 1985 dollars, hell, I’d get in the hot tub.

  307. Comrade Nom Deplume says:


    Krugman in Pravda, telling readers not to believe the spin against Obamacare.

    And he finishes with this gem: “For a real piece of passable legislation, however, it looks very good. It wouldn’t transform our health care system; in fact, Americans whose jobs come with health coverage would see little effect.”

    Wonder if he is willing to put some money on that?

  308. Shore Guy says:

    “House members gave him thunderous applause for his honesty and embraced him”

    In an Ironic twist, two of the people embracing him were Rahm Emmanual and Eric Massa, each fresh out of the shower and n@ked.

  309. Juice Springsteen HEHEHE says:
  310. NJGator says:

    Nom 310 – and for 150k in 2002 dollars?

  311. NJGator says:

    Shore 312 – What a stand up guy? It’s such a shame that poor girl was not healed despite his best efforts.

  312. Yikes says:

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    March 12, 2010 at 9:01 am

    Tax News of the Day:

    Record number of “taxpayers” in US had no tax obligation (or got $$$) back, including record number of above group earning more than $50,000


    So, 250K is the new rich; 50K is the new poor, and everyone in between is middle class.

    That’s garbage. the “rich” should be 500k. 250 is way too low. that’s basically two, hard-working people who make 125k.

    it’s almost incentive enough to have the wife stay home with the kids.

  313. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:


    It will be a terrible disaster. Doesnt really matter anyway. It will only radicalize more Americans.

  314. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    “In 1990, a small, round faced Canadian described a scenario to a reporter. He envisioned a small group of world leaders concluding that the rich countries were the “principle risk to the Earth.” This group then created a plan to get the rich countries to “sign an agreement reducing their impact on the environment.” When the rich countries refused, the group decided “the only hope for the planet” was for the industrialized civilizations to collapse. He pondered, “Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”

    Two years later, he helped lay the foundation for the Kyoto Protocol at the Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro. His name is Maurice Strong, and he would love to see America collapse.

  315. Anon E. Moose says:


    Yikes, that’s just here on the coasts. The median family income in America is about $50k. So when Barry singles out people making more than $250k, most people hearing him (especially in ‘clinging’ states) think — maybe rightfully — that they’ll naver make half that per year in their lifetime. He’s just playing to the cheap seats.

    His electoral problem is that upper middle class in the Blue strongholds like NY and CA (maybe even Chicago) get clipped, too.

  316. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    This article would support Doom’s prediction of “Why not zero.”

    Detroit family homes sell for just $10

    The once thriving industrial city has suffered a dramatic decline following the global economic crisis.

    According to Tim Prophit, a real estate agent, the crisis has led to a unprecedented portfolio of homes, but they are failing to sell.

    He said there were homes on the market for $100 (£61), but an offer of just $10 (£6) would be likely to be accepted.

    Speaking on a BBC 2 documentary, Requiem for Detroit, to be screened on Saturday, Mr Prophit said: “The property is listed by the city of Detroit as being worth $35,000 (£22,000), but the bank know that is impossible to ask.

    “This part of town has got a lot of bad press in the media because it featured in Eminem’s film ‘Eight Mile’, but that particular road is fifteen minutes up the road and that is a long way in Detroit.”

  317. yo.me says:

    (Reuters) – Senator Charles Schumer said on Friday he plans to move forward soon on legislation aimed at stopping China from “manipulating” its currency.

    Barack Obama | China

    “Now more than ever, there is a consensus to finally confront China’s currency manipulation,” the New York Democrat said in a statement.

    “It is the single biggest step we can take to promote U.S. job creation, particularly in the manufacturing sector. We plan to move forward with revamped legislation on this issue in the coming days,” he said.

    Schumer’s statement comes as President Barack Obama’s administration faces a decision by April 15 on whether to formally label China as a currency manipulator in a semi-annual Treasury Department report.

    Many U.S. lawmakers complain that China’s currency is undervalued by as much as 40 percent, giving its companies an unfair price advantage in international trade.

    Schumer co-authored a bill several years ago that threatened to slap a 27.5-percent across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods because of its currency policies. However, he and Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, later withdrew that plan.

    Obama, in speech on Thursday on his plan to boost U.S. exports, said it was important China move to a “more market-oriented” exchange range.

    Also on Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said China needs to move away from export and investment-driven growth and toward “strategies that rely more on domestic consumption and domestic demand for future growth.”

  318. Shore Guy says:


    I understand that the incident was hard on him too.

  319. Shore Guy says:

    And that he has been trying to come to grips with it since that night in the hot tub.

  320. Mr Hyde says:


    a prostitute seems way mire cost effective. I mean look what sort oh quality action spitzer was getting for 1/10th the price.

    Now the market in Utah may be different but it still sounds like this politico should be fired for financial inepritude if for nothing else.

    At least the prostitie would have actually ensures that certain activities ocurred.

    This politician deserves a big fat FAIL on this matter.

    Heck did he even find a way to get it covered by the taxpayers??? This guy is a first rate failure.

  321. NJGator says:

    Hyde 324 – Nah, if he were like a “smart” democrat, he’d put them on the public payroll like Massa or McGreevey.

  322. borat obama says:

    Hi fi eee

  323. veto that says:

    “I suppose I am now what was once referred to here as a “Kannekt Klown”…”

    Skeptic, after you deviated from the 60% from peak global economic collapse consensus, you basically have demoted yourself to ‘bi’ and i am no more credible than ‘re101’ for doing similar.

  324. Mr Hyde says:


    not so. Both you and skeptic can actually form a supportable logical argument….., even if you ate wrong ;)

  325. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:


    You’ve got mail.


  326. Sean says:

    Jamil, seems Sen McCain and Sen Liberman want to suspend habeaus and posse in one bill..


  327. veto that says:

    ‘even if you are wrong’

    kettle, thanks, id prob rather be wrong so hopefully i can at least buy a cheap home.

  328. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    no one wants to even acknowledge

    three more Bank Failures this Friday??

    Three, yes three…


  329. Outofstater says:

    So, does anyone know if all of the uninsured deposits of all these failed banks transferred to the new institutions or are the depositors out of luck?

  330. 3b says:

    #292 Ah Dude. No anectdata, fact. And it was not just on my block as you so glibly state I am not a moron, it was all over the NYC metro area. I know of what I speak. Ask clot,he was around at the time;if you think I am talking out of my butt. I was trying to sell my house at the time, in a blue ribbon desireable bergen co train town. This is when I get pissed off and aggravated when people who were not there tell me it did not happen. What were you in maybe middle school or high school back than? You want so called anectdata I can give you lots and lots more from real life people who went through it. When I see them I will them it was all a dream. Some in NY, some in NJ,and CT. Yeah I am going to tell my wife too; it was all a dream.

    Prices fell and fell hard,and then stayed flat for years. There is no way in hell prices rose every year from 1991 on that is how it went down grasshopper.

    And now I am done talking to you,

  331. Sean says:

    3b – no worries you aren’t the only one who remembers. The last housing bubble lasted about a decade, this one will be perhaps two decades.

    It is going to be a long walk home for the bag holders.

  332. samivel says:

    @ 77 – no such thing as a ‘run of the mill’ foreclosure anymore in NY or NJ. Legislation has been enacted to delay the standard procedural process. Huge, national anti-foreclosure network creates bogus ‘defenses’ where none in fact exist that enable defendants. Judiciary interprets rules in certain manner that result in more delay. Hence, many foreclosures take years and years. automatic BK stay is utilized as last resort.

  333. Yikes says:

    Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
    March 12, 2010 at 3:15 pm

    Interesting Yikes. Do you only drive your car for business? ;)

    of course

  334. Yikes says:

    Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
    March 12, 2010 at 3:30 pm

    4. Armed to the teeth with equally armed friends and family.

    6. 1 year store of essentials especially fuel.

    where are you storing a year’s worth of fuel? was in Loews the other day and they had a 5 gallon gasoline tanker. i’ll be getting one at some point.

    not quite a ‘year’s worth’

  335. Shore Guy says:

    The text of what could be called the Loss of Liberty in America Act of 2010:


  336. Shore Guy says:

    Well, we all know that Washington is out of touch with reality.

  337. Cindy says:

    Good Morning James –

    My semi-annual donation should be coming through…

    (Pay your taxes – pay Grim.)

    Let me know if that worked out.


  338. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore can we bring these politicians up on charges of treason.

  339. confused in NJ says:

    342.Shore Guy says:
    March 13, 2010 at 1:02 am


    Actually, they have no choice, because we insist upon migrating terrorists into this Country, and then not profiling them. So everyone has to become suspect, to protect against any perceived bias against the perpetrators imported by government into the Country. You wouldn’t want to upset the ACLU, would you. It’s contrary to Captain Picards advice though. He would say in aiding and abetting the enemy, you are guilty of Treason yourself.

  340. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    This Week’s Retail Sales BS:

    “Kind of makes your eyes well up a little, doesn’t it? But of course, every silver lining has a cloud, and this one seems to have a rather dark and foreboding cumulonimbus. February retail sales were up, but only because January’s sales were revised down by about $1.5 billion. Absent the revision, the February numbers would have constituted a decline. Meanwhile, over half of the year-over-year increase in retail sales in February is attributable to purchases of petrol; recall, again, that oil prices have essentially doubled from this time last year.”


    So for the housing/economic bulls out there, keep drinking the Kool-Aid, your Jonestown is being built right in front of you by the gubmint and the media.

  341. grim says:

    Thanks Cindy!!

  342. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [316] yikes

    “stay home with the kids”

    That’s the idea.

    Dems know (and Santorum got thrashed for suggesting it aloud) that a reduction in the number of 2 earner households would greatly improve employment stats.

  343. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [342, 343] shore

    The act defines an unprivileged belligerent as a member of al quaeda, so you are talking about a very small group affected by this.

    But consider the following story:

    “Treasury Inspector General Investigating 70 Comments Supportive of Austin IRS Attack

    About 70 instances of inappropriate remarks about the Internal Revenue Service are being investigated by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, following a Feb. 18 plane attack on an Austin building in which an IRS office was located, National Treasury Employees Union President Colleen Kelley said.

    The attack killed one IRS employee, in a building that housed 200 tax agency workers.

    The inappropriate comments have primarily been jokes or statements of support for the attack on the building, Kelley said at a recent media briefing. TIGTA has assured the NTEU that each of the instances in being thoroughly investigated, she said.

    “It is our understanding that the instances vary from comments made on the telephone to comments made in person to employees during a transaction with a taxpayer,” she said. Employees are instructed to report any comments that make them uncomfortable to their supervisors and to TIGTA.”

    I can’t spin this, the story is clear: If you make a crack to an IRS employee about the plane crash, you may well be investigated for it.

    Anyone else troubled by this?

  344. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Actually, not “may well be investigated” but “will be thoroughly investigated.”

    Which means just by engaging in speech that is otherwise protected (see Brandenberg), you are asking for an @nal probing, and most likely an audit, and possibly federal charges if they feel like making an example of you.

  345. jamil says:

    Sean 338: “Runaway Toyota Prius a hoax?”

    This is why State Media is dead. The story was suspicious from the beginning, but it fit nicely into State Media narrative (it is always about a narrative) so no questions asked. Hysteria about Toyota could be continued . It was almost like Shore’s hysterical posts on Yoo, based on some article on Obamaweek Shore just read. Narrative rules.


  346. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [355] jamil

    What will turn the tables on MSM will be if this actually gets investigated thoroughly, and cracks in the veneer appear.

    Then I suspect MSM will trip over themselves to cover the hoax, but very few will be covering the understory.

    But this whole thing works for me. I am looking forward to getting a great price and extended service on a Toyota.

  347. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    More tax news for any of you that get tips:

    “IRS to Begin Employer Tip Reporting Compliance Program, SB/SE’s Tuzynski Says

    The Internal Revenue Service is starting a new compliance program to assess the employer’s share of Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes on tips reported on Form 4137, John Tuzynski, IRS chief of employment tax operations, Small Business/Self-Employed Division, said March 12.

    Employees who receive cash and charge tips of more than $20 a calendar month and do not report them have to report them on Form 4137, Social Security and Medicare Tax on Unreported Tip Income, Tuzynski said at the American Payroll Association’s 2010 Capital Summit. Employees also must file this form if they have been allocated tips, he said, but the employers are only liable for their portion of payroll taxes on tips when the employees report the tips to them.

    “We have never made those employer assessments in the history of the IRS,” Tuzynski said, “so we’re going to be making history this year.”


  348. chicagofinance says:

    anthrax or plastic explosive?

    329.still_looking aka Tan-Less says:
    March 12, 2010 at 8:30 pm

    You’ve got mail.


  349. Yikes says:

    Shore Guy says:
    March 13, 2010 at 1:02 am



    Can’t wait to see how the radical right and Jamil spin this. I predict they don’t address it – typical.

    a) Completely ignore it.
    b) Ignore it and quickly bring up some other point – the right loves this move.

  350. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [340] yikes

    I am not sure you can store gasoline for very long. Hyde has expounded on gas storage here before. Even with stabilizers, it breaks down.

    Today, I rotated my stock. I keep 5-7 gallons on hand. But because it doesn’t keep, I periodically dump it in the car’s tank and get more, especially if prices are projected to rise. The idea is to have gas in case of price spikes, or if one ever needs to bug out.

    I have done this for a few years, and I figure that the periodic savings on gas have more than paid for the gas cans and funnel at this point. But as noted above, it is simply to have emergency gasoline, not to save money. Too much work for the savings.

    As for energy fuel storage, I am also considering getting another gas bottle for the grill. Can hook those up to other things as well, including heaters and burner rings. Propane keeps a whole lot longer than gasoline. I want to get a propane burner stand for brewing and nompound use.

    Also for emergency cooking, I have a 2 burner coleman stove. Bought it for Y2K and never used it. Dual fuel so I can use gasoline.

    Also useful for camping. In fact, a lot of my TEOTWAWKI supplies are also camping supplies. This is consistent with my view that emergency preparedness spending should be for things that will actually get used at some point. Otherwise, you are just buying insurance for what will (hopefully) be a very low probability event.

  351. jamil says:

    359 Shore: If you join the enemy, you are traitor and enemy combatant. I’m not sure we read Miranda rights for nazi spies, even if they were US citizens.

    Anyway, this is a congress controlled by libs, WH is controlled by a lib so anything that comes out is a result of dems.

    I’m also curious hearing comments that, given the fierce moral urgency, why is Guantanamo still open, Patriot Act wiretapping and assassinations on-going. If there were fierce moral urgency to stop them, dems could have done that on day 1.

  352. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [359] yikes

    While I have some concerns about the drafting, the purpose is to legitimize the way we had been grabbing and holding al quaeda.

    Legally, as I said, it affects very few people. And the bill is drafted badly enough that a court can essentially eviscerate it simply by relying on it.

    I think the issue here is more political. Obama and the left campaigned against this sort of treatment. Now McCain and Lieberman have put a fish-or-cut-bait bill out there to force the dems and admin. to either veer left (and keep their promises) or to sell out their promises and their base in order to placate the center.

  353. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [361] jamil

    “I’m also curious hearing comments that, given the fierce moral urgency, why is Guantanamo still open, Patriot Act wiretapping and assassinations on-going. If there were fierce moral urgency to stop them, dems could have done that on day 1.”

    Geez, that’s an easy one. They were lying.

    They never had any intention of following through on these promises because the unintended conseqeunces (and political fallout) would have been disastrous. They aren’t stupid people (and if you ask them, they will confirm that they are much smarter than you or I) and had to know what many of us did know, which was that the american people, and our allies, would not stand for a radical shift to the left so quickly.

    Before O was elected, I told my radical friends that O would toss them under the bus. I told them that repeatedly. I told whoever would listen that O would not close Gitmo, not pull out of Iraq when he said he would, and that, ATEOTD, the dems would re-up the Patriot Act. And this same logic can apply to other areas (ask the teachers how the drive train looks as they are staring right at it).

    In fact, O and the dems have sold out the left much more than I projected that they would. So much for my prognosticating.

  354. safeashouses says:

    #357 Nom,

    How much longer before we have to count coupons and rewards points as earned income?

  355. Jamal van Smith says:

    In fact, O and the dems have sold out the left much more than I projected that they would.

    So, he is not a soci@list??!!!?? Who the fcuk do I shoot at now with all these guns in my bedroom?

  356. jamil says:

    365: Nice try. Politicized witch trials (see Yoo) punishing political opponents, nationalized health care and state control of several industries, and increased state control through fake science cap-trade, forced unionization etc would make this admin look something between trotskyist and bolshevik.

  357. prtraders2000 says:


    NJ already charges sales tax on the rebates received on auto purchases. Next they will count as income to boot.

  358. Sean says:

    re: #361 – Jamil -As far as the Christmas Bomber why are they so afraid? They have more than enough evidence to try this guy and bring him to justice, are they really chomping at the bit because they can no longer torture this guy?

    I think this has more to do with replacing the Bush era “enemy combatant” mess and replace it with a new legal framework to strip you a US citizen if your rights without trial or access to the courts.The Supreme Court ruled against the Bush administration in the Padilla Habeas appeal, I believe they and the lower courts ruled three times against the Bush administration on this subject.

    This new McCain/Liberman Bill would create a new legal framework scrapping the piecemeal Bush system which is what Obama wants. He wants his own version where the US Citizen detainee status is determined by any members of an adhoc tribunal, and then the US citizen detainee may face indefinite detention without a trial or charges filed in a fashion similar to many of the detainees in Gitmo who were held for years upon years and still to this day witrh no trial.

    I would think this is much worse than what Bush Administration did to Padilla, remember Padilla was allowed by the courts to be represented by lawyers where in this case you would be pretty much declared a non-citizen and tossed into a brig somewhere in the US where like Padilla the military will subject you a US Citizen to torture and possibly be administered with various drugs including possibly LSD and PCP etc.

    How far down the rabbit hole do we need to go here to protect the USA? I would rather make profiling legal than this, this is messy and tramples the constitution in ways that the founders sought to prevent.

  359. jamil says:

    368: Christmas bomber case was good example how distorted O admin reaction was. He was read Miranda rights right on even before any US intelligence agencies knew about it (as they admitted in congressional hearings). He was speaking but stopped once Miranda was introduced. He was likely to have crucial life-saving information (and potentially time-critical info, eg. simultaneous plots in other flights – we did not know that at the time).

    He was clearly not criminal defendant, nor prisoner of war (in the sense of Geneve Convention) but something else (aka illegal enemy combatant). They should not have Miranda rights, but should be interrogated by the military/CIA (or, as Bill Clinton did, order them to be to tortured by foreign intel service, btw Shore: shouldn’t Clinton be prosecuted for this?) without civilian lawyer representing them as they have military lawyers. Civilian lawyers tend to be aligned with them (like the NY lawyer who was convicted of passing info to Al-Qaida) and all secret info should not be exposed in the trial. For example, if US were to have double-agent close to Al-Qaida, we would have to expose that in Holder-preferred trial.

    The most logical way to deal with
    these nutcases is military trial (with military defender, ie somebody who is not going to pass info to Al-Qaida) and applying all necessary interrogation techniques (including female guards and rock music).

  360. jamil says:

    So Shore: Clinton ordered terrorists to be tortured by foreign intel services. Should Clinton be prosecuted and does this constitute biggest threat to this country?

    Just kidding – he is a lib. No big deal – right?

  361. Sean says:

    Jamil – You are forgetting that the Supreme Court and lower courts already ruled against this, the law is NOW clear. You bring up examples from the past like Clinton and WWII but forget the rulings in the Padilla case are recent. Shall we ignore these rulings in which the courts have said definitively that
    there are constitutional limits on the president’s power to deny basic civil liberties in the name of fighting terrorism? Shall we toss the court rulings aside and ignore them?

    The slope is already slippery enough Jamil. McCain and Liberman’s bill will destroy what is left of liberty.

    I would rather we profile, I know some people that work on the government systems in this area, it is doable to make the Air Travel secure via profiling, yet we call it discrimination and we would rather take away constitutional protections entirely. It is not a fare trade off, I would rather have the government snoop in everything I do rather than give up my rights to legal representation and the rights afforded via Miranda.

  362. Cindy says:


    Volcker likes cheap cigars – who knew?

  363. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    safe, 364

    Don’t give them any ideas, ‘mmmmkay?


  364. still_looking aka Tan-Less says:

    Chi, 258

    Do you need to clean your glasses?

    I wrote Doom not Buffoon, aka Frank.


  365. Cindy says:


    Well damn…Politics vs. policy

    It doesn’t look like anything serious is being considered to rein in banking.

    I keep waiting…and waiting….

  366. Sean says:

    Cindy – there will be no action in 2010, perhaps after the elections, but I won’t hold my breath.

    I for one have stopped writing my Rep and Senator in Congress, they have shown little interest in reigning in the Casino mentality.

  367. Cindy says:

    Sean – I hear you!

    Here’s one on The Velocity of Money –


  368. veto that says:

    229 – Al, is that you in those videos?

  369. chicagofinance says:

    Goldman Sachs has adopted a new corporate anthem:
    I am the eye in the sky

    Looking at you

    I can read your mind

    I am the maker of rules

    Dealing with fools

    I can cheat you blind

    And I don’t Need to see any more

    To know that I can read your mind, I can read your mind

  370. Morpheus says:

    and thttp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4097602514885833865&ei=F-NFS9_MEITYrgKC1dG3Ag&q=Regent+University+Law+School+Professor+James+Duane&hl=en#docid=6014022229458915912he otherside:

  371. Morpheus says:


    Please tell me how this is so unamerican.

  372. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Wow, here is the Deplume family tale of NJ State Government woe for the day.

    Wife is driving back from Philly(took the turnpike, which she always does and which I always criticize).

    Near exit 7, construction debris blew off an overpass onto the highway.

    They closed the NJ turpike for 3 hours to deal with this debris. Blown debris that she said she could have picked up and moved by hand.

    They re-routed traffic at exits 6 and 7, but if you were between them, you were SOL, and they weren’t allowed to move.

    After 2 hours, she called NJSP. Was told “A team is being assembled”

    At the 3 hour mark, I tried to locate an emergency judge–there are judges on call to handle emergent matters, such as injunctions. The latest list and instructions from the court says to call the NJSP, ask for the duty officer, and he is suppposed to locate the emergent judge. Sounds like a silly procedure, but that is what it says.

    I called NJSP. I wanted to see if I could get an emergency injunction to free the folks they were holding on the highway. The sergeant who answered put me on hold, then came back on and said he didn’t have a current list and hung up on me (the current list, issued at the beginning of the year, is on the website).

    Oh, and they made my wife pay the toll.

    I think she is more motivated to take down NJ state workers than Clot is.

    In fact, she is so furious, I think now I can sell her on the PA tax residency idea. She so doesn’t want these hacks to see another dime more than she needs to pay.

    I also think that I can convince her to complete the census as having just moved to PA, thus giving them 4 more citizens, and NJ 4 less.

  373. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [364] safe

    One proposal is to tax coupons by taxing in full the pre-coupon price. It is administratively easier and there are already precedents for this, such as the fact that you pay tax on the sticker price of a car even if a rebate lowers what you actually pay.

    As for points, that has also been proposed. Again, the way to do that is to tax the value of the flight. In fact, they may do that already. Not sure.

    Based on her latest experience with NJ, we may do the tax residency thing, and then follow it up with single filings. Under the Code, if you are married but “live apart” for more than half the year, you can file single. No obligation, so you can crunch the numbers. And you don’t even have to get legally separated.

    Fcuk New Jersey.

  374. Cindy says:


    Sean – March 14 – Sunday 60 Minutes
    Michael Lewis

  375. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [365] jamal,

    Oh, he is a s0cialist, or is closer to one. He is also enough of a politician to know that you don’t get there in large bites.

    Remember the words of Norman Thomas. He predicted it correctly. Americans will happily adopt s0cialism in small doses until the job is complete.

  376. Shore Guy says:

    ” it is doable to make the Air Travel secure ”


    I cannot say much online but countering aviation terrorism is an area in which I have expertise. Suffice it to say, a determined terrorist will bypass all current and next-gen screening.

    Put another way, wan can stop the stupid and uncareful terrorists, and can get lucky here and there beyond that but, if a smart and determined rerrorist wants to bring down a plane, it can be done.

  377. Mr Hyde says:


    had a run in with NJ as well recently and feel the same way!!!!


    the only real defense is to not engage in overseas terrorism ourselves and to ignore terrorist strikes on the US. Deal with the perpitrators immediatly and hashly and then go about your day.
    It’s like dealing with a 2 yr old.

    In the end there is little alternative in a truly free society

  378. PGC says:

    Anyone know a good plumber in the Milburn area?

  379. Sean says:

    Shore my version of profiling is a little more extensive than you might think.

    Did we allow the Japanese to travel freely to the US during WWII? Did we allow planes from Germany to land in England during WWII?

    If we are at war then lets be at war, nobody who fits the profile gets to fly to the good ole USA. That would have stopped the Christmas bomber dead in his tracks, he would have been on the no fly list. While we are at it anyone who wants to fly here has to under go full scans, biometrics and bend over as well.

  380. Cindy says:


    There will be a lot more strippers in California – What’s a girl to do?

  381. Joisey Boy says:

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Fcuk New Jersey.


  382. veto that says:

    334 – ok 3b, sounds good. if homes on your block crashed 40% during the 88 bubble, as you claim, then i believe you.
    you should go ahead and post some of those comps. its all public info and most of us would love to see that.

  383. Outofstater says:

    Re: Airline security – I heard a good idea – instead of body scanners, have everyone go through a device that would immediately detonate any explosive hidden on or in their bodies. Clean up on aisle 3.

  384. SysAdmin says:

    Quick solution to get Unemployment under control.

    Currently the unemployed are supposed to fill in paper work to get their unemployment monies. If the government can define it(filling in the paperwork) as work and the payment as wages, we can rapidly bring the unemployment numbers down.

    Should I patent this idea, since it seems to have great potential in the times we live?

  385. SysAdmin says:

    Katrina Cottages anyone?

    I have heard a lot, but I haven’t seen/heard any implementations in NJ. Any pointers?

  386. Shore Guy says:

    ” no fly list”

    A worthy start but it, is only a small piece of a larger security puzzle that, despite assertions to the contrary, provides more of a penumbra of security than anything else. As much as anything, we depend on the appearance of security to keep the industry operating and to deter attacks.

    One can keep every terrorist off of every aircraft and terrorists can still bring them down.

    Remember the name Eritria and if you hear about horrific carnage in the skies one day, do not be surprised if this little garden spot turns out to be in the thick of things.

    Al Shabaab sure appreciates their assistance.

  387. Shore Guy says:


    Modesto is only about three hours from Reno, so, if the pole dancing is too taxing for her, there are likely other alternative employment opportunities open to her.

  388. Sean says:

    Shore no doubt we don’t need to fly there, after profiling we can easily restrict flights after all there have been no flights from the US to 90 miles south of Florida for decades so why not the horn?

  389. Shore Guy says:

    I am not talking about our going there but, rather, problems from the Horn (or certain other places) biting Europe, CONUS, and related places at home. Certain issues have been discussed extensively and even “tabletopped”at the WH, DHS, NORAD, NORTHCOM, FAA, FBI, and, “other government agencies” as well as with the airlines and, suffice it to say, there is a general agreement that, without setting foot on an aircraft, it is possible for terrorists to force a closure of the National Airspace and that, unlike after 9-11, the NAS might not be able to be reopened for a extensiive period.

    In some ways, the less one knows, the more secure one can feel about flying.

    Happy travels.

  390. Yikes says:

    Ruth Eldredge, 49, said she had decided on her dream ticket for 2012: Romney for president and Brown for vice president, with a promise that they’d make Palin secretary of state. “They’d be so good-looking that people would just love us,” she said, meaning Republicans. “They’re beautiful!”

    this is way down in this story. sad that someone would admit that.

    next year instead of a debate: dancing with the stars, presidential candidates square off!


  391. Final Doom says:


    Soccer in VA this weekend. More today. Repeatedly soaked, but I guess it’s way worse in NJ.

    Got your e-mail. Cosmic justice, of a sort.

  392. Final Doom says:

    I always knew skep was a Kannektoid. All those pro-bailout posts during the Fall of ’08 tipped me. The whole mentality of trying to prevent Armageddon has just assured that the one we eventually face will be cataclysmic. In fact, I’ll always believe that if we’d just let the failures occur, we’d already be on a path to recovery now. TPTB will sacrifice the whole country and condemn us to 3W status just to keep themselves and their cronies sitting pretty.

    For the past few days, I’ve been in the middle of one of the very few economic “pockets of strength” we have left: suburban DC…allegedly a land full of happy gubmint drones.

    Just from the signs I see on shuttered businesses and totally vacant office buildings, I’d say the commercial vacancy rate here is at least 25%. Also have yet to enter a full restaurant at peak Fri/Sat mealtimes. Parking lots are 1/4 full at most shopping areas around my hotel.

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  393. Final Doom says:


    By the time this is over, you’ll have your pick of even better places than that one.

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