Positive Equity … in 2017

From the NYT:

Forecasts for Underwater Owners

FOR the New York City area’s underwater homeowners – that is, those whose mortgage debt exceeds the value of their homes – this could be a very long decade.

According to a report released last month by First American CoreLogic, www.facorelogic.com a real estate consulting business, these homeowners may not begin to see positive equity until 2017, possibly even later.

Sam Khater, a senior economist at First American and the author of the report, said the average shortfall was 39 percent. He predicted that housing prices would stabilize, then rise slowly over the next seven years, but that owners would recover equity mostly by paying down the loan during that time.

Recovery forecasts, Mr. Khater said, are based on historical data from housing market cycles and the average home-price appreciation over the last 30 years.

“The danger is that seven years might be a little optimistic,” Mr. Khater said, referring to the predicted recovery time for New York’s underwater borrowers. “We may not revert to the average long-term appreciation in the next five or six years.”

The average mortgage holder in the New York area has a loan of 70 percent of the home’s value, Mr. Khater said. (There are no estimates for the number of homes owned outright, but about half of the homes in the United States are not mortgaged.)

Of the roughly 1.1 million mortgage holders in the New York City area, including sections of northern New Jersey and Westchester County, about 116,000, or over 10 percent, are underwater, according to First American.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

495 Responses to Positive Equity … in 2017

  1. grim says:

    Only about 4 more days to use the FTHB credit (got to leave time for negotiation and attorney review)

    Get crackin’.

  2. still_looking says:

    Reminds me of “You can have $50 off your purchase if you buy $5000 worth of merchandise right now!

    I’ll wait…

    sl

  3. Final Doom says:

    FTHB credit a non-event locally. Market continues to decline & will decline even faster when the credit expires. None of the buyers I’m working with cared about this credit after one trip out to look at the wildly-overpriced cabbage swamps that Homer and Marge are trying to foist off on some greater schnook.

    The forty years in the wilderness has begun.

  4. Final Doom says:

    The buyers are all in on the secret now: they have the ability to wait longer than most sellers can stay solvent.

  5. Final Doom says:

    Therefore, “it’s a good time to buy” is falling on deaf ears.

    Rut roh.

  6. Final Doom says:

    “The cycles and very simple fundamentals are enough to predict that 2011 will be worse than 2008. The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world. The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August. This decline after the August peak should be far more serious and we believe it will be the start of a major market rout continuing into the middle of 2011, at a minimum. The deflationary recession that will accompany this market collapse, at least in the developed world, will put extreme pressure on the Eurozone and the EMU structure. The second half of this decade will witness a very different world.”

    – John Taylor of FX Concepts, biggest currency hedge fund in the world

  7. safeashouses says:

    Buyers want to buy a house, sellers have to sell a particular house. Advantage buyers.

    Although it seems houses in good locations and great shape, or good locations but need work, if priced right move in a week. (great shape = 2003-4 price, needs work 2001-2). Anything else just sits. Anyone who bought a house on a busy street, under a powerline, etc after 2002 is going to get slapped by reality.

  8. safeashouses says:

    Doom,

    Any Essex county expats exhibiting buyers remorse out in Somerset/Hunterdon?

  9. Final Doom says:

    safe (8)-

    More like relief. Virtually all the expats came here for the long-term, to get better schools for the kids & (somewhat) lower taxes. Although no one’s thrilled with the hit to equity (a lot of these folks bought in the 750K-1mm range), they’re also not going anywhere. The guys who bought way more than they could afford and then lost jobs are- for the most part- foreclosed or on the way there.

    Anxious time will hit when these folks’ kids are all out of HS, and their homes are still six-figures underwater.

  10. Final Doom says:

    Betting on nations to fail is way more fun than betting on any NFL game.

    “CDS traders are now focusing their attention on the one country which has so far slipped under everyone’s radar, yet which we disclosed is more on the hook in terms of Southern European exposure than even Germany: France, with $781 billion in total claims. Should Greece topple the PIIGS dominoes, France will implode. And this is precisely what CDS traders are betting on now, taking advantage of absurdly tight France CDS levels. Also, just in case they are wrong on France, Spain and Portugal, not surprisingly, round out the top three names in which Net Notional saw the largest increase. Also not surprisingly, Japan rounds out the top 5 deriskers.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/if-cds-traders-are-right-france-next-sovereign-shakedown-are-spain-and-portugal-greece-long-

  11. House Whine says:

    10- Back the “kids” come these days, right back home. They graduate college and often can’t find jobs that pay, or any job at all so they end up living back with Mom and Dad. I see it around my neighborhood all the time these days. So the parent’s may have a few years of respite but then the big house gets filled up all over again with even more belongings than before.

  12. reinvestor101 says:

    If naysayers on sites like this didn’t talk so damn negative, the stinking buyers wouldn’t have been scared off and we wouldn’t have a damn house problem. I begged you damn people to stop with the negative talk years ago, but did you listen to me? No, you damn liberals went and voted for a damn socialist to be the damn president. Now we’ve got some damn healthcare being shoved down our damn throats with a wild expansion of the damn government. Look at what they’re trying to do to poor Goldman Sachs. These damn liberals are going hog wild with regulation and that will futher kill the damn investment climate. People don’t need the government protecting them in the first damn place. Government needs to get the hell out of the damn way, so I can make some damn money.

  13. Yikes says:

    Grim, have you officially turned down Nashville?

  14. still_looking says:

    WASHINGTON – Can you trust Washington?

    Nearly 80 percent of Americans say they can’t and they have little faith that the massive federal bureaucracy can solve the nation’s ills, according to a survey from the Pew Research Center that shows public confidence in the federal government at one of the lowest points in a half-century.

    Link here… Shocked, I’m shocked, I tell ya…

    sl

  15. Final Doom says:

    C receiving praise for becoming a less-sick wildebeest.

    Nothing like the pleasant surprise one gets for exceeding low expectations.

  16. Final Doom says:

    sl (15)-

    Wake me up when that 80% decides it’s time to pick up a gun and do something about it.

  17. Final Doom says:

    I think that young guy is going out on Idol this week.

  18. Final Doom says:

    Is that lady with 9 kids who lets people film every minute of her life still on Dancing with the Stars?

  19. Final Doom says:

    She must have incredible stretch marks.

  20. still_looking says:

    Doom, nope. tummy tuck.

    courtesy the dad of the girl her ex started dating (hailey glassman)

    sl

  21. reinvestor101 says:

    Yeah. I hate big damn government and have no faith in it. This health care thing still has me mad as hell and I plan on joining the damn resistance and not allowing the damn government to impose tyranny on me. I WON’T PARTICIPATE IN THIS AND I’M REFUSING TO ALLOW MY KIDS TO STAY ON MY DAMN INSURANCE and I won’t sign up for any insurance that won’t consider the ailments I have already. And that’s just for starters. I plan on taking my resistance to new damn levels even after that.

    Once they get to the part where you’re mandated to have coverage or you get fined, I plan on going apeshlt and I’m prepared to DIE for my freedom rather than submit to the tyranny of goverment telling me what I have to do. I’d rather strap some C-4 on my ass, jump abroad a damn daisy cutter and dive bomb ass first into hell before I let them fine me one damn penny for healthcare.

    That will inspire people to revolt against the tyranny being imposed by the liberal scourge in Washington.

  22. Sas3 says:

    “Nearly 80 percent of Americans say they can’t and they have little faith that the massive federal bureaucracy can solve the nation’s ills”

    I can imagine the question to be on the lines of:

    “Do you believe a MASSIVE federal BUREAUCRACY will solve the national ILLS?”

    I am surprised they even got the 20% +ve response to the Q.

  23. Final Doom says:

    I’ll strip it down a little, sastry:

    gubmint = enemy

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (15) Still

    Having worked in DC and with lots of agencies, I agree that DC can’t be trusted on any level.

  25. Cindy says:

    http://retheauditors.com/2010/04/18/fraud-happened-the-no-account-accountants-stood-by/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ReTheAuditors+(re%3A+The+Auditors)

    Fraud Happened. The No-account Accountants Stood By

    “The financial crisis is now about fraud.”

    Uhhh – Wasn’t it always?

  26. Cindy says:

    http://baselinescenario.com/2010/04/19/goldman-sachs-too-big-to-obey-the-law/

    Baseline Scenario

    I just ordered “13 Bankers.” Should be a good read. Econned on the way as well.

  27. Final Doom says:

    Cindy (27)-

    Just a giant diversion. Barn door open, horses gone.

    Gotta believe the whole GS thingy was a scripted & timed kabuki, meant to bolster TPTB going into election season. GS even got to pick a sacrificial lamb and probably got advance notice of the SEC action, so they could get short themselves somehow.

    In Amerika, the fascists can do anything they want as long as they keep feeding roofies to the little people.

  28. Final Doom says:

    Simon Johnson just said all we need to know:

    “Our biggest banks, in effect, have become too big to be held accountable before the law.”

    Now I can get back to all the neighborhood gossip about our latest ped0phile kiddie p0rn dealer. Seems this guy had the Nat’l Center for Missing & Exploited Children AND Interpol after him.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    doom: you are vegetating into some bastardized version of Booya….

  30. Cindy says:

    Timing is all pretty suspect isn’t it Clot. The Dems can say, “See, we are trying to rein in the banks.”

    Don’t throw us out of office in November, we are after these guys.

    We had better pass the financial reform legislation…the Reps are holding the entire thing up – blame them if things aren’t cleaned up. Re-elect us – we have your best interest in mind.

    Clinton admitted over the W/E that he took lousy advice from Rubin and Summers – yet -there they are – still in the thick of things.

    Politics – Yuck!

  31. still_looking says:

    Nom, 25

    Did you feel the need to shower more than daily working for them?

    It was Reagan (I think) who said, “The scariest nine words in the English language: ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.'”

    sl

  32. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Armed March in Virginia today. Lets see if anything interesting happens. The event is ripe for a false flag especially on the anniversary of the OKC false flag bombing.

  33. Final Doom says:

    Cindy (32)-

    Clinton took his marching orders from the bond market. His victories and his foibles notwithstanding, he was a good prez because he understood rule #1 (how could he not, after the way the bond vigilantes monkeyhammered it into his brain):

    Yield must be paid.

    “Clinton admitted over the W/E that he took lousy advice from Rubin and Summers – yet -there they are – still in the thick of things.”

  34. JJ says:

    GS thing is big smoke screen to get the Big O’s financial overhaul passed.

    GS will be alive and well, this is just a minor distraction involving one little structured product set up by a handful of employees.

    Most likely good GS buying opportunity, also I like a lot the NY muni for the GS building downtown. Totally irrelevant this news to the muni bond, but grandma and grandpa often dump their muni bonds if the word GS is in it and they wet their Depends, as they can’t stand any form of risk.

  35. Mr Hyde says:

    Al 34

    You are right in that the armed marches and meetings are ripe for an agent provocateur. The authorities have been caught sdoing this on video at events ranging from the latest WTO meets to NYC protests.

  36. Final Doom says:

    JJ (36)-

    All we need to know, in three short paragraphs.

  37. hughesrep says:

    9

    I think I used to play high school golf against Kashkari. The only reason I remember him is the odd spelling of the firs tname.

    He went to Western Reserve, they had monogrammed sweaters, matching bags, all the accesories the well heeled future king of finace deserves. We showed up at their club in metallica t-shirts with bags we scarfed from the rental stand at the local cow pasture we played.

    They also had a Robert Something the Third. We of course called them Neel and Bob.

    They cheated, we still waxed them regularly.

  38. Cindy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704508904575192294041013802.html#articleTabs%3Dcomments

    “SEC Probes Other Soured Deals”

    Check out comment 21 – Jeesh Daram

    “Beware of Goldman. They have been shorting their own stocks while people have been pouring their IRA and 401-k money into it up to April 15th and then BANG! SEC’s news comes out. So Goldman already made billions hitting its short target on Friday. Beware of the next move.”

    He talks about a short squeeze where they will profit again. The next commenter points out that they received the Wells notice 9 months ago and said nothing.

    I am beyond trusting any of the big bankers. I want to read Simon Johnson BECAUSE he believes the only answer is to break them up.

  39. meter says:

    Spain is increasing its VAT by 2% starting in the summer.

  40. meter says:

    @12 – it may take a generation, but the smart kids will eventually come to realize that college is largely a fool’s errand any more.* In this market a parent of a child with above average common sense and drive is better off banking the cash and bankrolling the kid to kick off a start-up venture or franchise.

    * with exceptions: medical school being one

  41. Cindy says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/199280-goldman-sachs-the-sec-and-the-question-of-timing?source=email

    Another questions the “timing.”

    I’m so sick of politics I could throw up…but alas, I need to get ready for work instead.

  42. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “The second half of this decade will witness a very different world.”

    Doom, #6,

    Interesting.

    In Barron’s this weekend; “If the current situation is indicative of the the next half century, I think we’re screwed”

    Sam Zell

    Is Sam trading currencies thru FX Concepts?

  43. meter says:

    @29:

    “GS even got to pick a sacrificial lamb and probably got advance notice of the SEC action, so they could get short themselves somehow.”

    I gotta admit: as cynical and sarcastic as I am, I hadn’t dreamed up that scenario. Kudos.

  44. Nomad says:

    Hugh – he started at Stowe-Monroe Falls then transferred to WRA. Did he cheat at golf? Did you go to HHS?

  45. meter says:

    Who’s buying GS stock? Can’t decide whether to buy it or short it. Not a good sign.

  46. safeashouses says:

    #10 Doom,

    We moved form Somerset to Essex and like it better here. But then we don’t hang out with the natives, only immigrants and people who moved from other states to the area. Not into the pony tail through the baseball hat, bugaboo pushing, talking on the cell constantly, naming offspring after local pretentious towns crowd.

  47. safeashouses says:

    I don’t understand why there are still so many stranded people in Northern Europe. Can’t they be taken by bus/trains to Southern Europe and from there fly back to the US and Asia?

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [33] still

    What I took away from it was the fact that the bureaucracy, and DoJ in particular, felt that it could do prety much anything it wanted to do.

    Sometimes they would blatantly overstep and essentially dare their opponents to do something about it. Suing the government is the proverbial tar baby, and the USG uses this concept liberally as a negotiating tactic.

  49. hughesrep says:

    46

    I don’t remember playing with him, if it is Kashkari, I just rememeber the odd spelling of the first name and how we screwed with Western Reserve.

    We played them twice head to head. They were in our district and region for the state tourney, and we came across them in other tournaments fairly often.

    The whole team was notorious for their liberal use of winter rules and the foot wedge.

    I assume HHS is Hudson? I went to a little hick school out in farm country southwest of Cleveland. We just happened to have an unbelievable golf team. I carried an eight handicap and played fourth or fifth man most of the time.

  50. borat obama says:

    ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”

  51. On the fence says:

    The cynicism in here is comical. A parodic puppet-show of populist paranoia.

    Here’s a thought: if your name is followed by an ordinal suffix, and you’ve got a job that has you wearing a blue blazer and tan slacks, you’re gonna look pretty ridiculous blustering about armed insurrection and such. Imagine Thurston Howell III as a Threeper. Funny.

  52. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    A new week.

    I wonder what fraud and geological disaster awaits us.

    Oh here it is.

    Mt. Katla Is Now Getting Ready To Rumble
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-eyjafjallajokull-mt-katla-now-getting-ready-rumble

  53. jpl says:

    Doyle-

    What did you think about 229?

  54. Juice Box says:

    re: #49 – On the new last night a family from England stuck at Newark Airport, been sleeping their for days. They said they were working class and did not have the money for hotels and get this their cellphone batteries died and they could not call relatives for help.

    I was thinking about putting them up for a few days, but then I remembered the Irish hate the English…

  55. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of Airports, I recently read Ireland was expected to say okay to military flights through their airports for “the perpetual war machine” to keep their airports like Shannon Airport open. It seems there has been a 27% decline in tourism in the west of Ireland and haemorrhaging of way too many jobs at the airports. The new nickname for the airport is the “morgue”. They are nearing depression level unemployment there.

  56. Juice Box says:

    The Airlines are getting desperate they are nearing insolvency and they want to resume flights it seems, although the dangers are very real.

    A Senior Western diplomat said Monday that several NATO F-16 fighters had flown through the ash cloud, and one had suffered engine damage from glasslike deposits — evidence that the danger from the cloud is very real.

  57. Anon E. Moose says:

    RE101[13];

    Thanks for confirming how powerful we all are. Let’s open a CafePress store with the slogan:

    I Tanked the Housing Market
    and All I Got Was This Lousy T-Shirt
    njrereport.com

  58. Anon E. Moose says:

    Volcanic Ash in a nutshell:

    -The danger is real.
    -Airlines can avoid it but that requires changing routes, spending more money on fuel, using different equipment. B757/767 & A340s are certified for ETOPS (Extended-range Twin-engine Overwater OPerationS) that limits time and distance from landfall – the scheme was created to allow 2-engine aircraft to use the North Atlantic routes bet Europe & America. Re-routing over the Azores through Lisbon would require a 747 or other 4-holer.
    -Airline are flying our of Europe – eastbound. Heathrow to JFK, change planes in Perth.

    I just heard yesterday that the British Navy is dispatching ships to pick up stranded citizens and bring them home. What a concept – use military transport capacity in the service of citizens. I’m not suggesting that everyone turn the Navy into a cruise line, but we’ve used the military to get our peopole home when needed (Grenada).

  59. Final Doom says:

    fence (53)-

    The listing appointments I go on these days don’t require slacks and a blazer. The appointments also only last about 12 minutes.

    Continue to make judgments based on appearances. That way, when the .223 explodes between your eyeballs, it will be quick and painless.

  60. Nomad says:

    58 – ash and other particles go into the turbine where they get heated up, melt and bond to the fan blades – at which point turbine shuts down, you dive, hopefully get below the mess and attempt, if the pilots cannot do a restart, then its 32ft / second/second.

  61. Mr Hyde says:

    Nomad,

    Over the weekend i saw a report that the seismographs on the big volcano are acting up. If that one blows, which it usually does when the small one goes, then european air traffic is toast for a while.

  62. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [57] juice

    That explains all the ads on radio promoting Ireland, especially western Ireland.

    I’ve noticed that the ads only come out when tourism is awful, just like Quebec ads everywhere when Quebec was melting down politically.

    Unfortunately, it is a lagging indicator.

    On a side note, wonder when we will start seeing ads for Greek and Icelandic tourism.

  63. stan says:

    Cape May, early June. Anyone have any recommendations for Hotels?

    Thanks!

  64. willwork4beer says:

    #26 Cindy

    I hadn’t heard of that beer, but I’m not surprised. BrewDog is legendary for high alcohol brews after they got spanked by the British government for their 18+% ABV beer called Tokyo. Their response was epic: A 1.1% ABV beer called “Nanny State”.

    Jim Koch (Boston Beer Co/Sam Adams) and Sam Calagione (Dogfish Head) take most of the credit, or blame, for the superhigh alcohol experimental beer race among microbrews.

    FWIW, in my experience anything above 12-14% ceases to be beer. Generally the alcohol content overwhelms the flavor and it just becomes too “boozy” to be beer.

    The technique BrewDog used has been around for centuries, so I guess any brewer could use it (Morpheus?). They freeze the beer and remove the ice (water) leaving a higher concentration of alcohol. The result is referred to as Eisbock.

  65. Final Doom says:

    Gotta think the Greeks will rapidly take to kidnapping Americans for ransom as a growth industry.

  66. Final Doom says:

    I’m an advocate for any drink that contains massive amounts of alcohol.

  67. willwork4beer says:

    Clot,

    I didn’t say it was bad. I just said it doesn’t taste like beer.

    Although one of the worst tatsing beers I ever drank was a 1997 Sam Adams Triple Bock at 17%. Stuff tasted kinda like burnt teriyaki sauce.

  68. willwork4beer says:

    Dogfish Palo Santo at 12% and Samichlaus at 14% are good examples of excellent tasting high alcohol beers.

  69. Mr Hyde says:

    66 beer

    thats called freeze distillation and/or fractional freezing

  70. Mr Hyde says:

    beer

    It can also act to concentrate fusel alcohols (the bad stuff) if the brewer isnt careful.

  71. Seneca says:

    MLS 2722375

    LP 299,000
    SP 28,600,000

    Obviously an error. If the selling agent doesn’t go in and correct it, will we hear how selling prices in Cranford rose 9000%+ last month?

  72. Libtard says:

    My favorite high alcohol beer is Brother Thelonious at 9.4%. Even at this level, you can feel the burn a bit.

    http://www.northcoastbrewing.com/beer-brotherThelonious.htm

    The stuff is hard to find around here.

  73. JJ says:

    Medical school is the biggest waste of money. Doctors don’t make that much. I make more than a doctor and I got to party during High School and College and graduated from my cheap so so college loan free and start working right away.

    Plus doctors are not well rounded and generally are extremely knowledgable in their speciality but stupid otherwise. I am far far smarter than any doctor on non-doctor topics. Then again I can barely put a bandaid on nor could I every even pass one or two classes in medical school.

    meter says:
    April 19, 2010 at 9:36 am
    @12 – it may take a generation, but the smart kids will eventually come to realize that college is largely a fool’s errand any more.* In this market a parent of a child with above average common sense and drive is better off banking the cash and bankrolling the kid to kick off a start-up venture or franchise.

    * with exceptions: medical school being one

  74. JJ says:

    Actually the best beer is something called “powdered beer”. It is actually beer that is in powdered form you just add water. They sell it on internet. Great stuff for a football game, just keep making beer for free in you water bottle at the many water fountains.

  75. Nomad says:

    #63 – perhaps it’s mother nature banging her drum to remind everyone who is calling the shots.

  76. Painhrtz says:

    Intersting read for you libertarians on here regarding Dr Ron, tea party and a little blurb burried in the article on the current corporatism in DC

    http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2010/04/15/ron-paul-and-the-libertarian-moment/

  77. willwork4beer says:

    #74 Libtard

    Brother Thelonius is great stuff. One of the best Belgian-style ales brewed in the USA. Maybe the best.

  78. Mr Hyde says:

    JJ 76

    powdered beer doesnt have any alcohol in it unless you add if after the fact. if all you want is the taste, then fine, but if you want the alcohol effects the water fountain isnt going to help.

  79. willwork4beer says:

    Re: 76

    Hyde, is that even possible? Can alcohol be dried and then instantly re-hydrated? If so, why stop at beer. You could have freeze dried whiskey.

  80. hughesrep says:

    Ommegang also makes some decent Belgian styles and are usually easier to find.

  81. Libtard says:

    Thanks ww4b. Someone from this blog told me they saw it in Millburn and I brought the last six-pack. It was as dusty as an old bottle of wine but tasted fine. They used to have it on the drink menu at Mia’s in Caesar’s Palace in AC, but not any longer. Shop-Rite liquors in Lincoln Park supposedly carries it, but anytime I call them, they don’t have it in stock. Where do you get yours?

  82. Juice Box says:

    If the airlines are crying over a little volcanic ash today what are they going to do in a few more days when it get’s worse?

    Here is the prognosis for volcanic plume dispersion for the next 3 days. Seems it is going to get worse over England and Ireland.

    http://www.dmu.dk/International/Air/Models/VolcanicPlume.htm

  83. House Hunter says:

    Stan, going to Cape May with kids?

  84. willwork4beer says:

    Darn blackberry. Takes so long to post. Thanks for the answer, Hyde.

  85. Libtard says:

    I have consumed Ommegang on tap many times at better bars. Had one in Vegas on Thursday night at the M Resort. Haven’t seen it too often in the local liquor stores though. Magic Hat #9 is my local splurge among the mass produced craftless beers. Had a Sierra Nevada Torpedo that was tasty this week as well. FoOut of all of the major micros, they seem to excel.

  86. willwork4beer says:

    #83 Libtard

    I get mine from Little Brothers in Flemington or SuperSavers (Circle Liquors) in Pennington. If your travels take you near the Oak Tree BuyRite, try there. Haven’t been there for a long time, but they always had just about everything you could ask for.

    #82 Hughes

    Ommegang rocks. Period. Amen.

  87. Libtard says:

    Also had a black cherry beer at the Triple-7 Brewpub in Main Street Station. Very interesting beer. Had the nose of black cherry soda but it didn’t overpower the stout. I would expect to see more micros offering this soon.

    “Black Cherry Stout” back on tap! Our most requested special is now available. Brewed with cherry juice, this beer is a dark delight. The aroma and flavor of fresh cherries blends with the chocolate roastiness of a stout to create an unforgettable ale. 5.5%”

  88. dan says:

    Belgian beers. Hoegarden when I can find it.

  89. Mr Hyde says:

    81 berr

    No, you cannot powder alcohol in standard conditions.

    There are 2 types of beer powder. One is a freeze dried beer which supposedly tastes like the original beer but has no alcohol in it when reconstituted and the other is a freeze dried powder that includes yeast and sugar and must be allowed to sit for days-weeks in order to ferment.

  90. On the fence says:

    Doom (61):

    At a thousand yards out, I won’t be able to make judgments one way or the other. The person with the scope has all the power. So, whatever.

    I assume you were speaking in general, and not implying that you would be the shooter. Right?

  91. willwork4beer says:

    Sorry Grim. I didn’t mean to hijack your blog into the NJ Beer Appreciation Blog. Carry on, people.

    Is it beer-o-clock yet?

  92. Nomad says:

    83 – Wine Library in Millburn perhaps? If they don’t carry, they can probably order 4 U.

  93. Painhrtz says:

    Found flying fish Oktoberfish this weekend, just before expiration and still quite good had to blow the dust off of the 12 pack.

  94. JJ says:

    http://www.firebox.com/product/2313/Powdered-Beer

    They sell powder beer on line with alchol, just add a pint and in 20 seconds you are done.

    HS kids use it as they don’t proof for it.

  95. chicagofinance says:

    So I take it you agree:

    GS = Roethlisberger

    the only difference is that the Steelers don’t get the option of sitting the big slob for the Raiders and Bucs, whereas GS will get a slap on the wrist…

    Final Doom says:
    April 19, 2010 at 8:50 am

    Cindy (27)-

    Just a giant diversion. Barn door open, horses gone.

    Gotta believe the whole GS thingy was a scripted & timed kabuki, meant to bolster TPTB going into election season. GS even got to pick a sacrificial lamb and probably got advance notice of the SEC action, so they could get short themselves somehow.

    In Amerika, the fascists can do anything they want as long as they keep feeding roofies to the little people.

  96. Mr Hyde says:

    Fence

    1000 yrds? There are not many people who can consistently make a kill shot at that range or have the equipment to do so outside of military snipers. at that range its more of a “fire for effect”. 500-800yrds is more realistic for long range shooting for non-professionals.

  97. JJ says:

    Here are powder beer instructions.

    Instructions:
    1) Empty one sachet into a pint glass
    2) Fill with chilled water
    3) Drink
    4) Repeat from step 1

  98. stan says:

    House hunter-

    No kids, just my wife and I.

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    More on the edjamacation bubble:

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/19/want-a-higher-g-p-a-go-to-a-private-college/?hp

    This supports the argument that a person who goes to Penn State or UMass and gets a decent, but unspectacular, GPA is as least as talented as a tony private college honors student.

    This I know to be true: I have taken courses at Amherst, MHC and Harvard in addition to UMass. With the exception of the C I got at Amherst (from a well-known dick of a prof), my worst grades were at UMass.

    My best grades? They came from Harvard.

  100. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [98] Hyde

    I’d be hard-pressed to pip the ace at 500 yards with a Mini-14, even if it did have a decent scope.

  101. Mr Hyde says:

    JJ 96

    you cannot powder alcohol (Ethyl Alcohol) if the temperature is over -117C. those packets must container some amount of liquid alcohol in them or their claim of instant alcoholic beer is 100% BS

  102. willwork4beer says:

    JJ,

    If you read the comments for that “product”, you’ll see that it was an April Fool’s joke.

  103. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde I can hit a 6 inch paper plate at 500 consistently for an amateur 6 of 10 in good weather. Put a crosswind or variable conditions and that goes down to 2 of 10. I’m considered a damn good shot so i would have to agree with you. Most people couldn’t hit a barn at 200 so it is better to just let them get close. Saves on ammo ; )

  104. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom 102,

    a mini 14 isnt a great choice for long range shooting. The .223 round doesnt have great ballistics for that range and the rifle itself just isnt meant to perform like that.

    I’m sure there are a few who could pull it off, but its an exception, not the rule.

    If you want to shoot at that range without getting to specialized, try a remmington model 750 with 30-06 or 270. you are looking at and effective range of 800 yards and a max range of well over 1000 yards

  105. chicagofinance says:

    Stay away….no opportunity…facts are too fluid….

    meter says:
    April 19, 2010 at 9:45 am

    Who’s buying GS stock? Can’t decide whether to buy it or short it. Not a good sign.

  106. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain 105

    iron sites or scoped?

  107. JJ says:

    Details, Details.

    willwork4beer says:
    April 19, 2010 at 11:59 am
    JJ,

    If you read the comments for that “product”, you’ll see that it was an April Fool’s joke.

  108. JJ says:

    I thought Dick Fluid was the guy from Lehman?

    chicagofinance says:
    April 19, 2010 at 12:04 pm
    Stay away….no opportunity…facts are too fluid….

  109. On the fence says:

    Hyde (98):

    Okay, fine: let’s call it 500 yards, or even less. If it’s more than a football-field’s length, I still won’t be seeing the guy, let alone “judging” him based on his appearance.

  110. Final Doom says:

    fence (92)-

    Keep taking shots at me.

  111. Jamal Van Jones says:

    This supports the argument that a person who goes to Penn State or UMass and gets a decent, but unspectacular, GPA is as least as talented as a tony private college honors student.

    But this article is from state media, with an obvious liberal agenda. How can you trust this source?

  112. chicagofinance says:

    Stu: I know the Whole Foods in Middletown is overflowing with micro-beer selection. Beyond the case, they have stacks all over the store. You would do well to poke into the one in West Orange. I do know the guys in Middletown are seriously into the beers, so I think they pride themselves on the cache they have…..

    Libtard says:
    April 19, 2010 at 11:19 am

    My favorite high alcohol beer is Brother Thelonious at 9.4%. Even at this level, you can feel the burn a bit.

    http://www.northcoastbrewing.com/beer-brotherThelonious.htm

    The stuff is hard to find around here.

  113. Final Doom says:

    beer (104)-

    I give you Wall St’s best and brightest.

  114. make money says:

    FCUK GS.FCUK C. and everyone else.

    I loaded on FAZ and SKF this morning exit strategy begins when up 15%.

    DOW 11K my azz.

  115. chicagofinance says:

    Final Doom says:
    April 19, 2010 at 12:13 pm
    fence (92)-
    Keep taking shots at me.

    doom: Can the ladies do shots ON you?

  116. willwork4beer says:

    JJ,

    I’m disappointed. The “guy from Lehman” was your best line?

    I thought Dick Fluid was the guy from Lehman?

  117. SimoneNY says:

    Breaking News!
    * Real Estate Could Beat Stocks, Bonds: Gross;
    * Citigroup’s strong showing follows similarly impressive results last week by Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. That has boosted hopes that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and banks may be entering a period of sustained profitiability.

  118. Mr Hyde says:

    Fence 111

    Look on the bright side. At 500 yards, depending on weather conditions you wont hear the gunshot until after you are hit by the bullet.

    Besides at 500 yards the probability of a single shot kill isnt very good on average, unless you have an SF sniper after you :)

    cheer up you sour puss!

  119. Final Doom says:

    I was thinking of a range of more like 12 feet.

  120. Final Doom says:

    make (116)-

    You are bound for glory, my friend. Anyone who rides the FAZ is a straight-up geto boy.

    Triple Down Monday!

  121. Painhrtz says:

    3×9 scoped 7mm Rem Mag. I can wack a similar target with military sight M-1 at 250 but that is really pushing my abilities.

  122. still_looking says:

    Shocked! I’m shocked I tell ya… I hope that botox bitch gets syph.ilis. Read here if you can keep from puking…

    Now… onto more important things…

    sl

  123. JJ says:

    From Millionaire Next Door, book –

    Most of these millionaires “have been told by some authority figure or by the results of standardized test scores that we were not intellectually gifted, of law school caliber, medical school material, qualified to pursue a medical degree or smart enough to succeed.” Average GPA in college is 2.92.

  124. Final Doom says:

    (119)-

    Wiping coffee off screen. Woo-hah!

    “Real Estate Could Beat Stocks, Bonds: Gross”

    If GS ever goes away, Gross and PIMPCO will fill that space in about a nanosecond.

  125. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain,

    I fall off at about 250 with iron sites as well.

  126. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “Real Estate Could Beat Stocks, Bonds: Gross”

    The way i interpret this has nothing to do with RE. it does however, say alot about how he thinks stocks and bonds will perform. not surprising i guess.

    NAR: Buy now or lose all of your money forever.

  127. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde very admirable. One of things most people don’t understand about shooting at distance is that you have to familiarize yourself with the ballistics of the particular round you are shooting.

    snipers have an innate shooting talent but they also put in a great deal of time learning the round’s tendencies and putting lead down range. Most of us amateurs do not have the time or the monetary resources to spend as much time and ammo on the range.

  128. Pat says:

    Nom, here’s a bit of anecdata for you. I won’t bore you with my SAT scores, but they were the kind of scores that got me into every college I applied to.

    But I had to work hard to pull out a “C” at Penn State in the first math class I took. The downside to being in classes with 200 geeky brainiac engineers.

    The upside was I was in classes with 200 geeky brainiac engineers who fell over their seats to help me. Later, I would help some of those same engineers be able to finish their MBA’s. Sirendipity.

  129. chicagofinance says:

    Kay is a scumbag….

    04/19/2010 8:57 AM
    I’m a huge Yankee fan but the Mets have the best radio and tv guys. I truly envy them when it comes to their announcers. When a Yankee game ends and the Yankees have won. I change the radio station before Sterling can yell out his contrived The Yankees Win. Michael Kay’s voice is like nails on a chalk board because he doesn’t announce he whines. Like yesterday about the previous nights Met game being going 20 innings. That he wouldn’t stay. First of all you have to be fan of the game to appreciate a 20 inning game. Secondly he says maybe stay 6 or 7 innings. why bother going then.What is his rush? I doubt he has a date , to be in any such hurry. It only proves that he only bothers with the games because he’s kissed up enough Yes officals to secure a job. The voice of the Yankees, these 2 clowns are more like the voices from hell.

  130. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [106] hyde

    I would consider a 30-06, but I doubt I could justify that purchase with the spouse, seeing as I just picked up the mossberg.

    My justification for having them was the fact that I would use them for sport purposes. But since I don’t hunt, the larger rifle would be a bit much to justify.

  131. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [113] jamal

    I can trust it because it differentiates between two categories in an area deemed sacred to liberals. No opportunity to attack conservatives, so no spin.

  132. Mr Hyde says:

    Pain,

    Thanks. But to be honest i havent shot at distance in a while and would need a a day or 2 on the range to get dialed back in.

    You have to love the rush of hitting targets that your can barely see.

    And your right, its definitely not something you do without a lot of time on the rifle and a good instructor.

    A friend of min was an SF sniper. They spent 6+ hours a day on the range and in ballistics classes for weeks on end and usually shot at least once a day.

  133. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom 132

    Distance marksmanship is a sport, its a very challenging one as well! no excuse needed!

  134. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Kay is a scumbag….”

    I’m baffled. Who actually cares about an announcer?

  135. Pat says:

    JJ, do you know if the powdered beer can be used to coat fish filets?

  136. JJ says:

    Problem I have is who wants help from a guy with torn jeans, unshaven, hung-over, who can’t spell who cuts classes.

    However, very last class in grad school I got hardest teacher in school and damm dean would not let me switch, wise guy said at least for one class you are going to earn it the hard way. What an SOB, Prof rode me harder than a toothless ho at 4am. It did give me satisfaction of having to pass one course with an A grade and not miss a single class, cheat or other short cuts. Damm Prof even made you stay alert and dress in normal clothes. He was only prof in school who enforced honor code plus his only two grades the SOB game was A or Incomplete. The damm incomplete was so students would have to take the whole course over again with him as many times as it took to get an A.

    I love the time a student gave a presentation, the prof said nothing and his comment at end was “I feel sorry for your mother for having such a stupid son, NEXT”. This nut job used to teach at harvard where he got complaints for riding students too hard. JC, 99& of students would not graduate college if they had a real prof like him.

    Pat says:
    April 19, 2010 at 12:35 pm
    Nom, here’s a bit of anecdata for you. I won’t bore you with my SAT scores, but they were the kind of scores that got me into every college I applied to.

    But I had to work hard to pull out a “C” at Penn State in the first math class I took. The downside to being in classes with 200 geeky brainiac engineers.

    The upside was I was in classes with 200 geeky brainiac engineers who fell over their seats to help me. Later, I would help some of those same engineers be able to finish their MBA’s. Sirendipity.

  137. chicagofinance says:

    Mr Wantanapolous says:
    April 19, 2010 at 12:48 pm
    “Kay is a scumbag….”
    I’m baffled. Who actually cares about an announcer?

    Then you don’t like sports.

    As an example, ESPN Baseball Sunday night is unlistenable because of Morgan.

  138. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [135] hyde

    Oh, I get that, and I am not a bad shot for someone of my skill level.

    I hit what I should hit, given the distance, equipment and training, when it comes to stat targets.

    I would like to work on my skeet skills though. No experience and it shows.

  139. JJ says:

    No, but are we talking kitchen or bedroom?

    Pat says:
    April 19, 2010 at 12:49 pm
    JJ, do you know if the powdered beer can be used to coat fish filets?

  140. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde went to high school with an eventual marine sniper. The amount of “course work” they have to do is insane.

    Nom get a ruger 10/22 if you can plink clay birds at a 100 yds with iron sites you can eventually work your way up to larger rounds at distance. I have actually been thinking of buying .254 roberts for range work but can’t justify the cost.

    Sorry for highjacking grim, Real Estate Bad!

  141. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “That has boosted hopes that the worst of the credit crisis has passed and banks may be entering a period of sustained profitiability.”

    119,

    Approx 70% of earnings have been trading related. You are cheering a bunch of hedge funds. Sustained porfitability? Based on what, FASB and a record sloping yield curve? Slap a suit on a monkey.

  142. Pat says:

    JJ, you and I are THE worst spellers here, right?

    How come you never misspell anything to do with hanky pank?

  143. Pat says:

    oops. panky.

  144. scribe says:

    Is Mr. W = BC Bob?

    Is JJ = John?

  145. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [143] pain

    Have one, and had it for years. Can hit targets at 100 yard with iron, but that isn’t much of a feat. Would really like to learn distance shooting but the cost of time/money is not an option right now.

    Besides, I think better use would be to learn proper shotgun technique.

    Now, back to real estate.

  146. Pat says:

    Remember how CF calls John “JJ?”

    I think John changed his middle name from Michael to Jesus so he could be JJ.

    That’s how much he respects his gardener.

  147. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Have we started a pool yet for how many airliners the volcano is responsible for?

    The Brits are lifting the flying ban tomorrow.

  148. make money says:

    DOOM,

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsBcUlwRlaY

    Investing means you aint got a set of hairy ones. Gambling means you’re high, got a gatt your waist and trigger finger on a mouse.

    Let em burn.

  149. Pat says:

    Does anybody know how the guys in the physical Scottrade offices are comped?

  150. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    If Amercians were forced to choose where a huge volcano should erupt, it would probably be iceland.

    Still, you cant tell me this thing will have no effect in the US or its economy or climate or food supply or balance of nature, etc.

    And at what point does world stock markets start to admit this?

  151. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Veto 150:

    the Hekla volcano just erupted. The Katla eruption is just a matter of time. Hopefully the people can get to/from the EU in a small time period as the window to fly to the EU closes.

  152. Pat says:

    Veto, are you saying that the price of my Nutella is going up?

  153. Pat says:

    If the margin changes for 4/30 impact the little guys in the Scottrade offices, should I start tippng them, John?

    WWJD?

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [155] pat

    That’s it. I have to stockpile Nutella before Pat buys it all up.

  155. Pat says:

    too late. my guys are good.

  156. Pat says:

    but I’m not done with quark. Yet.

  157. chicagofinance says:

    You thought NJ was bad…..

    Wall Street Journal
    EUROPE BUSINESS NEWS
    APRIL 16, 2010

    Tragic Flaw: Graft Feeds Greek Crisis
    By MARCUS WALKER

    ATHENS—Behind the budget crisis roiling Greece lies a riddle: Why does the state spend so lavishly but collect taxes so poorly? Many Greeks say the answer needs only two words: fakelaki and rousfeti.

    Fakelaki is the Greek for “little envelopes,” the bribes that affect everyone from hospital patients to fishmongers. Rousfeti means expensive political favors, which pervade everything from hiring teachers to property deals with Greek Orthodox monks. Together, these traditions of corruption and cronyism have produced a state that is both bloated and malnourished, and a crisis of confidence that is shaking all of Europe.

    [huge article major edit]

    The cost of patronage in the public sector, which many politicians say is pervasive, is harder to quantify.

    “If you can employ any of your voters in the public service, you’ll do that,” said Mr. Papandreou in a recent interview, describing the political culture he’s trying to change.

    Under Greece’s electoral system, voters in each district choose multiple deputies, so candidates compete against party colleagues as well as the opposition.

    “Instead of running on their party’s policies, they give promises as to what they will do for their voters: ‘When I’m in government, I will make sure your daughter gets hired somewhere,'” says Stefanos Manos, a former finance minister.

    Hiring to public-administration jobs surged last year as the right-leaning government struggled to restore its popularity in the face of scandals and economic slowdown. In the month before the fall election, the government added 27,000 people to the public payroll. Many had no position to fill, and not even an office to go to, according to finance ministry officials.

    Cutting the civil-service rolls will be difficult. Under Greece’s constitution, permanent government staffers enjoy guaranteed jobs for life.

    “At the moment there is nobody who can tell you how many people work for the Greek public sector,” says Diomidis Spinellis, a university professor who joined the government in October, and who is trying to gather that information.

    The school system is notoriously bloated. For years, the education ministry hired new teachers even if they weren’t needed, says John Panaretos, a cabinet minister tasked with making the government more transparent. Greece’s 180,000 teachers give it one of the world’s best teacher-student ratios. But numbers can be deceptive, Mr. Panaretos says, noting that about 20,000 teachers are in administration because there are no classrooms for them.

    Elsewhere, schools are overstaffed. One small school on a tiny island was found to have 15 physical-education teachers, while another had more teachers than students, Mr. Panaretos says.

    [edit]

  158. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    FYI…The Hekla volcano did not erupt. They were looking at the wrong webcam.

    Sorry for the confusion….

  159. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    My Big Fat Greek Wedding
    was negotiated all cash under the table.
    And the bride stole the salt and pepper shakers.

  160. chicagofinance says:

    I just found out one my best friends is stuck in London on a business trip. His wife his home with 4 kids. :(

  161. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) – The nation’s top military officer said on Sunday that a U.S. strike against Iran would go “a long way” to delaying its nuclear program.

    “Military options would go a long way to delaying it,” Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters after speaking at a forum at Columbia University in New York.

    “That’s not my call. That’s going to be the president’s call,” he added.

  162. Mr Hyde says:

    The Iceland volcano erupted for almost a year in the late 1700’s. Go long Europe to US cruise ships???

  163. make money says:

    I just found out one my best friends is stuck in London on a business trip. His wife his home with 4 kids. :(

    Albani,

    Are you jelous?

  164. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Lava is shooting for the first time from Iceland’s erupting volcano and the ash cloud has dramatically reduced, a helicopter pilot told AFP on Monday after flying over the crater.

  165. sas says:

    looks like I might not make it to Ireland.

    always something.

    SAS

  166. Final Doom says:

    Pat (137)-

    No, but in Portugal, it is used as money.

    “JJ, do you know if the powdered beer can be used to coat fish filets?”

  167. Final Doom says:

    Pat (152)-

    They are paid in powdered beer.

    “Does anybody know how the guys in the physical Scottrade offices are comped?”

  168. Final Doom says:

    veto (153)-

    You’ll see it show up in wine prices. That volcano will mess with this year’s vintage in Europe somehow.

  169. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    This weekend I sensed real surrender from RE agents. No sales pitch, a knowing nod when peak price vs the current ask was discussed. Everyone is upsidedown, no one is buying at these prices. The staring contest continues…

  170. Final Doom says:

    Barb (172)-

    When you get the dumbass agents to the point where it’s either sell or sleep in the street, they’ll shank the sellers.

    Me? I started shanking them three years ago. Every zero sum game needs a loser, and I don’t care who that loser is.

  171. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    anectada report:

    One of the last holdouts of rediculously high asking price homes have just capitulated and lowered their ask to a reasonable level. And when i say reasonable i mean 2005 levels.

    Its funny when they first put it up for sale a year ago, they were asking $400k. I didnt put in a formal offer but told their realtor to call me if they are willing to negotatiate at the $270k level. The realtor responded with the word ‘absurd’. Thats why its funny to me that their asking price today is below $300k.

    Whats even funnier is we wouldnt take the home for $2. It’s too small for us.

  172. chicagofinance says:

    The end is nigh………..

    MoMA’s naked-art exhibit also has a growing problem

    It isn’t just visitors who are causing problems at the Marina Abramovic in stallation on the sixth floor of the Museum of Modern Art. The artist has naked men and women — eight at a time, 38 in all — taking turns on dis play. A pair face one another at the entrance close enough that visitors brush against them on the way in. Another nudist is tied to a cross. It’s been reported that several visitors were asked to leave after touching the performers. But what wasn’t reported was that one of the naked men in the show had to be removed from the gallery because he became visibly aroused!

  173. Final Doom says:

    chi (175)-

    Boy, that JJ gets around…

  174. Final Doom says:

    Wonder what the rate of pay is to stand naked in the MoMA and get a hard-on?

  175. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Interesting Comp Bunker Buster i am witnessing as we speak.

    East Windsor. We dont want to buy there but i watch that market as well as a few other surrounding towns to use it as a barometer.

    Anyway, This one new listing is asking $270K. They bought it for $450k in the middle of 2006. If they close for $250k, thats a 45% haircut.

    Hyde, Doom,
    Remind me again who called for an eventual 55-60% drop in NJ values because im starting to think that its more possible than i ever thought before.

  176. Pat says:

    Is this exhibit a franchise?

  177. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    the art establishment continues to embarrass itself with wistful enthusiasm. The only relevant visual art is film and video.

  178. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    “You’ll see it show up in wine prices.”

    i cant imagine how a continent can provide food for its people and keep an economy going with a giant black cloud of sulfer hovering over its head.

    The fact that this happened in iceland and not in Saskatchewan proves that Americans are really G*d’s chosen people.

  179. Pat says:

    Veto, sorry, it wasn’t me. I was a conservative at 50%.

  180. JJ says:

    Scores should sue them.

  181. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    173. Doom,
    I think they are already starving but can’t shank because the sellers don’t have the cash and aren’t in short sell mode. And even when they are in short sell mode, the banks and the retard agents can’t make it happen in a timely manner. Bartending schools are probably having a good year.

  182. Final Doom says:

    I actually try to avoid talking listings from sellers who are solvent. The worst are the ones who are barely solvent and not short on the mortgage.

    Their hopefulness is sickening.

  183. Final Doom says:

    JJ (183)-

    I think MoMA should provide rings at that display and allow patrons to play ring toss at any times at which it might be “appropriate”.

  184. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    I called for about 55% i dont remember what Clot called for besides Armageddon ;)

  185. Confused in NJ says:

    A very nice school board lady solicited me for my vote today, on the upcoming budget. It was the first time I was able to find out the tax impact for 2010. Unfortunately I have to vote “No”, as Governor Christie indicate I should if the teachers did not accept a salary freeze. She understood my position. I should live in Hudson County, where I could vote “early” and “often”.

  186. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    3b, Clot and I are all at about the same prediction

    http://www.scribd.com/full/28262362?access_key=key-10gb0ai7lh7ed0krbm5b

  187. safeashouses says:

    #181 veto

    Don’t worry. if the gov can contain subprime, a little volcano is child’s play.

  188. Mr Hyde says:

    Clot was at 63+% I was at 57+% and BC/Mikeinwaiting were at 52%

  189. Mr Hyde says:

    Safe 190,

    Maybe a nuclear bunker buster could be tested on the volcano!!!!!

  190. Final Doom says:

    When the wildebeest is sick enough to be caught and eaten by the lion, the degree to which the wildebeest is sick is irrelevant.

  191. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Im not changing my 30% prediction. Hyde, you’re on record at 57%
    Doom was calling for 63%
    Pat – you are not on record. Do you want to be?

    http://www.scribd.com/full/28262362?access_key=key-10gb0ai7lh7ed0krbm5b

  192. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    i cant imagine how a continent can provide food for its people and keep an economy going with a giant black cloud of sulfer hovering over its head.

    ummmm, china?

    Of course you have to expect a lower standard of living and things like cardboard rolls for dinner and melamine milk for breakfast.

  193. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Thanks hyde, beat me too it.

  194. Mr Hyde says:

    How much is europe dependent on tourism? if this volcano doesnt shut down very soon, they’re going to take a big tourism hit.

  195. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    My 27% percent forecast means we have about another 7% to go…

    Dangit.
    I forgot to allow for the economy of a whole continent to shut down as the result of a volcanic eruption in my forecast model.

    As a result I may wind up being off by 20-30%. lol.

  196. Barbara "just wait till fall" Believer says:

    hyde,
    I think Orlando and Vegas are going to have great summers

  197. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    How about the icelanding people? Does anyone care about them?
    Or are they not real people?

  198. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Doh!

    Volcanic ash from last week’s eruption in Iceland disrupted domestic flights in North America for the first time Monday, as Canadian officials cancelled nine flights out of Saint John’s, Newfoundland.

  199. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    I bet if the volcano was errupting in Haiti, we would send our soldiers into the mouth of the magma with an intent to restore order.

  200. willwork4beer says:

    #188 Confused

    A very nice school board lady “solicited” you for your vote today?

    How “nice” was she willing to be?

    I had planned to vote no on my town’s school budget increase, but maybe I should investigate how “nice” my school board is willing to be for a yes vote first…

    Now that’s “Hudson County rules”.

  201. Painhrtz says:

    Hyde my inlaws are in Germany right now. Their expected return date was May 2 I spoke to them over the weekend stressing that they may have to adjust their plans. Good thing they have family there.

  202. Mr Hyde says:

    Veto,

    we need a WAR ON MAGMA!!!! Quick, someone get on the phone to O about this!

  203. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Hyde, ha.

    If AQ claims this volcanic eruption, im going to be suspiscious.

  204. Painhrtz says:

    200 Veto they produced Bjork, form your own opions about the Icelandians from there.

    Personally, I think their bank collapse and the volcanism are punishment for that sin.

  205. Final Doom says:

    veto (200)-

    Bunch of lowlife debt monkeys. Hope they get the Pompeii outcome.

    “How about the icelanding people? Does anyone care about them? Or are they not real people?”

  206. Final Doom says:

    Bjork = sawing on my last nerve

  207. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Pain, ohhh, I see.
    No wonder why mother earth is so po’d

  208. Final Doom says:

    XL Capital owned West Ham, the soccer version of hell on earth.

  209. Final Doom says:

    “Mr. President, please show the American people the AIG emails. In the wake of the disclosures associated with Friday’s government fraud accusations against Goldman, Sachs & Co., one of our nation’s wealthiest, largest and most politically well-connected banks, it is inexcusable the U.S. government still refuses to release the thousands of emails that exist between AIG and Goldman Sachs. Unlike the Icelandic volcano, this was no natural disaster. Trillions of dollars have been defrauded from the U.S. taxpayer by a banking scam run by the top 1% of our country.” – Dylan Ratigan

  210. Final Doom says:

    Saw Ratigan on Today this morning and thought to myself that he appeared just about ready to lose it.

  211. JJ says:

    Thank God there are no volcanos in New Jersey, judging from what I have seen on that Jersey Shore TV shows there are no young virgins to sacrifice to the volcano.

  212. JJ says:

    GM to repay $4.7 bln debt ahead of schedule: WSJ

    YAAA baby!

  213. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [171] doom

    “You’ll see it show up in wine prices.”

    Already on it. Finished the third large storage chest for my wine cellar (planned to make 4 but may either alter design or just scrap it). I have capacity for up to 8 cases now, and just over halfway there in terms of filling it. Will continue to accumulate until prices spike, then enjoy my lower priced vintages.

    That said, I’m so sure you will see a major price spike. First, the growing season has to get really screwed up, and that may not happen, and second, there is overcapacity in Australia and, to a lesser degree, California.

    Not the same terrior, I know, but I still expect that if France/Germany prices go up, they are still selling wine, and the resultant demand shift soaks up the overcapacity elsewhere.

    Course, I don’t accumulate it as an investment. It will all get used someday.

  214. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Eeek. Editing alert. Meant to say “not so sure”

  215. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Anyone see Mutts in the Sunday papers? Instead, it was Jersey Mutts, with two mussels taunting each other on the beach, along with a snail called Snooki Scungilli.

  216. Pat says:

    veto, I cannot be put on record at 50% because my predictions included a timeframe that was too short.

    I can’t find the thread, but I think I was going for 50% off by 2010.

  217. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [213] Doom

    Really? I thought I saw Ratigan on MSNBC, and I was wondering what he was doing there. Is he promoting a book or something?

  218. Mr Hyde says:

    from Nasa, the iceland volcano…

    http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/image/1004/icevolcano_fulle_big.jpg

    i think we pissed god off.

  219. veto that - lawrence yun 'the panda', 'next fall' says:

    Pat, well at least there is one honest economist on this board.

    if you want to push that out to a different time frame just let me know and i’ll add it. You dont have to give an exact date. 3-5 year range is fine with me.

  220. Painhrtz says:

    Awesome shot Hyde, I was wondering when we would see shots of volcanic lightning. You have to love all those charged particles running around in th trophoshere

  221. Outofstater says:

    #221 Awesome photo. Is Mt. Katla next? What are the odds?

  222. Mr Hyde says:

    stater 224

    I believe that Katla has gone off the last several times that Eyjafjallajokull has.

    n the past, all three known eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull triggered subsequent Katla eruptions-
    http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0418/Iceland-s-Eyjafjallajoekull-volcano-is-nothing-to-Angry-Sister-Katla

  223. Mr Hyde says:

    “Eyjafjallajokull has blown three times in the past thousand years,” Dr McGarvie told The Times, “in 920AD, in 1612 and between 1821 and 1823. Each time it set off Katla.”

  224. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Dangit.
    I forgot to allow for the economy of a whole continent to shut down as the result of a volcanic eruption in my forecast model.”

    Veto,

    Not to worry. News does not determine the markets. Markets determine the news.

  225. Mr Hyde says:

    …from the Laki (another iceland volcano) 1783 eruption:

    In North America, the winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record. It was the longest period of below-zero temperatures in New England, the largest accumulation of snow in New Jersey, and the longest freezing over of Chesapeake Bay. There was ice skating in Charleston Harbor, a huge snowstorm hit the south, the Mississippi Riverfroze at New Orleans, and there was ice in the Gulf of Mexico.”

  226. Outofstater says:

    Well, if Hekla or Katla blow, it could make for some interesting weather patterns. Got food?

  227. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Rut Roh . . .

    “NFIB’s findings dovetail with those from American Express, which recently polled owners of firms with 100 or fewer employees. One in five businesses said their companies are “sinking ships,” while more than half said they were merely “staying afloat.” Just 21% reported that their business was healthy or growing.

    Business owners continue eying their payroll for cost cuts. While 28% of those Amex surveyed said they’re planning to hire new workers, most of those creating jobs said they’re looking for part-time or freelance help. Among that group, 62% said they’re avoiding taking on new full-time workers to save on the cost of benefits. . . .”

    That last point got me, especially because certain liberal voices on this board poo-pooed me for suggesting it could happen.

    Second, I don’t see this situation getting better. Right now, only 1 in 5 replied that business was good while 3 of 5 said things were static. Even though there are generous small business provisions in the health care bill to make it attractive to offer benefits (or unattractive to dump them), the fact remains that small businesses with benefits will be stuck with one cost or the other, and those without benefits will have an expensive new cost. How that is supposed to “help” them is beyond me (except to “help” incentivize them to get under the 50 person exclusion).

  228. relo says:

    230: Ha. Lagging indicators all.

  229. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [231] relo

    Yes, but I am not trying to predict anything by using this data. So your point is accurate but irrelevant.

    Instead, I am looking at why this indicator is how it is, and I don’t see anything happening now or in the future to improve their prospects, and a lot of forces are present or coming that will unimprove them.

  230. Mr Hyde says:

    I am a dynamic figure, often seen scaling walls and crushing ice. I have been known to remodel train stations on my lunch breaks, making them more efficient in the area of heat retention. I translate ethnic slurs for Cuban refugees, I write award-winning operas, I manage time efficiently. Occasionally, I tread water for three days in a row.

    I woo women with my sensuous and godlike trombone playing, I can pilot bicycles up severe inclines with unflagging speed, and I cook Thirty-Minute Brownies in twenty minutes. I am an expert in stucco, a veteran in love, and an outlaw in Peru.

    Using only a hoe and a large glass of water, I once single-handedly defended a small village in the Amazon Basin from a horde of ferocious army ants. I play bluegrass cello, I was scouted by the Mets, I am the subject of numerous documentaries. When I’m bored, I build large suspension bridges in my yard.

    I enjoy urban hang gliding. On Wednesdays, after school, I repair electrical appliances free of charge.

    I am an abstract artist, a concrete analyst, and a ruthless bookie. Critics worldwide swoon over my original line of corduroy evening wear. I don’t perspire. I am a private citizen, yet I receive fan mail. I have been caller number nine and have won the weekend passes. Last summer I toured New Jersey with a travelling centrifugal-force demonstration. I bat .400. My deft floral arrangements have earned me fame in international botany circles. Children trust me.

    I can hurl tennis rackets at small moving objects with deadly accuracy. I once read Paradise Lost, Moby Dick, and David Copperfield in one day and still had time to refurbish an entire dining room that evening. I know the exact location of every food item in the supermarket. I have performed several covert operations for the CIA. I sleep once a week; when I do sleep, I sleep in a chair. While on vacation in Canada, I successfully negotiated with a group of terrorists who had seized a small bakery. The laws of physics do not apply to me.

    I balance, I weave, I dodge, I frolic, and my bills are all paid. On weekends, to let off steam, I participate in full-contact origami. Years ago I discovered the meaning of life but forgot to write it down. I have made extraordinary four course meals using only a mouli and a toaster oven. I breed prize winning clams. I have won bullfights in San Juan, cliff-diving competitions in Sri Lanka, and spelling bees at the Kremlin. I have played Hamlet, I have performed open-heart surgery, and I have spoken with Elvis.

    But I have not yet gone to college.
    -Hugh Gallagher

  231. Anon E. Moose says:

    Renting: The new American dream?

    Like Joe Kennedy and the shoe shine boy, the unwashed masses could not be a better contrary indicator. Here’s a little taste. When ‘no one wants to own a house,’ it will be the perfect time to buy. Not there yet but getting close.

    Sad that I can’t stay to see how I know the movie ends.

  232. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “230: Ha. Lagging indicators all.”

    231,

    In a normal recession yes. In a balance sheet recession caused by excess credit and debt, one in which an old economy is buried, about as forward looking as the sight of an oncoming freight train.

  233. relo says:

    232: Nom, 231 was my writing sample for consideration for future employment as a residential/commercial realtor. All I need is a photo w/ a phone to my ear and I’m set. Accurate but irrelevant is my sweet spot.

  234. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [233] hyde

    So, you discovered the autobiography of John?

  235. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [233] hyde

    and who the fcuk takes 30 min. to make brownies?

  236. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [236] relo

    “Accurate but irrelevant is my sweet spot.

    For me accurate but irrelevant is death.

  237. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [230] redux

    I went back and looked at the bill provisions for 50 employees. Suffice it to say, there is a decent loophole there as one can staff up with part-timers, or even full time so long as you lay them off for the summer.

    Also, all those summer businesses that staff up are exempt—seasonal workers up to 4 months don’t count.

    So the businesses that get zinged are the ones that are just too large to get down to 50 employees, or that can’t afford to staff up with “part timers.” Will have to look at potential attribution rules if, say, a business with 150 people subdivide into three separate businesses.

  238. meter says:

    @240 –

    I’m sure relevant but inaccurate is too.

  239. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [241]

    Really, did I search the wrong section?

    I did see that text, defining seasonal workers and full-time employment. Did the recon bill change it?

  240. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [241] meter

    Or was that just a pun?

  241. schabadoo says:

    Gun activists rally in D.C. and Virginia in support of right to bear arms

    Ironically, it was Obama himself who made the Virginia rally possible. A year ago, he rubber-stamped a law that allows Americans to carry guns in national parks.

    Will the ammo bubble ever pop?

  242. sas3 says:

    Moose #234

    However, stocks and RE are not the same — for one, homes are very illiquid, no price discovery, blah…

    The advice I received from sages here: “buy it if you like it”, and “you can’t get tomorrow’s prices today”.

    S

  243. sas3 says:

    Texas Gov Rick Perry: Anyone Who’s Not A ‘Rank Political Hack’ Realizes That Bush Was A ‘Very, Very Good President’

    … and Sarah Palin is the smartest, kindest woman on the planet.

  244. willwork4beer says:

    #246 sas3

    Not so sure about the very, very good part. Maybe he’s saying that because Bush was Governor of Texas, too. Gotta look out for your homies.

    Mom and Pop Beer lived in Texas during the time Bush was Governor. They both said he was horrible. (Lifelong Republicans). Pop likes to quote the Ann Richards line, “George was born with a silver foot in his mouth.”

  245. bdcnyc says:

    Hi, New to this blog, would appreciate any constructive advice.

    I’m a first time buyer considering a property in Norwalk CT, which is listed around $525k. The house was sold for about $510K in 2004, it looks in decent condition and the owner claims to have made updates worth $50K. I found the property on my own and dont have a buyer’s agent.

    I’ve reviewed the recent comparable sales, which seem in line. Considering a bid of 10% below ask. Is it a good idea to work with the listing agent or another agent from the same brokerage as a dual agency, asking to rebate the buyer’s commissions? I can find a good attorney and home inspector on my own and am questioning the value of paying 3% to the buyer’s agent.

    Thanks

  246. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [244] comrade schab

    It should. At some point, if you aren’t using the product, stockpiling is counterproductive.

    I bought my stock in 2008, figuring if Obama got in, prices would climb and product would be unavailable, either due to government action or perception.

    If there was no government action, I figured prices would come down and supply would increase after a buying spasm. That may be happening, but it took a lot longer than I figured it would. Shortages persisted since the election, and in some areas persist still. Common non-handgun rounds are available and plentiful again though.

    One concrete reason the buying persisted, in my view (and apart from the well-founded mistrust of the left on this issue), is the Administration’s order in early 2009 to stop DoD from selling expended cartridges to reloaders. That led to a brass shortage and drove up prices (and probably had an effect on overall demand).

  247. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [246] sas3

    Did Perry actually say that?

    I am sure we won’t agree on the Bush legacy (Harry S Truman was about as popular when he left office), but that showed a lot of political tone-deafness. His job is to run and win, not to be a historian.

  248. Anon E. Moose says:

    Sas[245];

    The thing is I don’t plan on trading houses. I would be content if my next residence is the one where my SS checks are sent (Yeah, like that’s gonna be around when I retire!). Interest rates rise and fall, but you’re such with the purchase price until you sell. Just ask anyone who bought in 2005. Which is to say, I’ve not yet let my ‘need’ for a house outweight my reluctance to be the sucker at the closing table – but its a tight race.

    BTW, I went back and read the article I cited in greater detail. The primary source is an exec from a residential leasing outfit, talking his book. Basically just a big mainstream media wet kiss to the REITS who probably buy ad space from them.

  249. Anon E. Moose says:

    such==stuck

  250. bp says:

    We saw a house on Saturday that was just listed last week. Wanted to put an offer below the listing price of $479,000. There was an open house on Sunday. Our realtor just informed us that there were already 4 bids on the house, the highest being $495,000. Do people want to be under contract before the APril deadline??? People just don’t learn anything. The house is already 30+ years old. We will wait until fall this year before we see anything else. WIth the way things are going in the world, (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods etc) who know whether half of this world will still exist by the end of the year :(

  251. Anon E. Moose says:

    bp[253];

    Concur in the disbelief about bidding wars breaking out yet again. Stupid people with short memories are condemned to repeat the past. Thanks to Dodd’s pending unlimited bailout authority (that’s REFORM?) you and I get to go along for the ride.

  252. Anon E. Moose says:

    con’t[235];

    Can someone please explain to me the benefit of spending $20k (over ask) to get an $8k credit? This is like people who spend money on sh!t they don’t need because ‘it’s tax deductible’. You’re paying a dollar to get a quarter – and your think its a good deal?

  253. sas3 says:

    253 #bp… Asks and bids may not tell the full picture. I’ve read about some houses in 2008 that went well above the asking price (both RE-owned and normal) — simply because the asking price was set way too low.

  254. sas3 says:

    #257, make it 2009 (less than a year ago).

  255. Juice Box says:

    So the flights to the USA from Europe have resumed.

    I gather pilots are going to be able to fly around this at night?

    Orange is the plume..

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/volcano/iceland.html

  256. safeashouses says:

    #255 Moose,

    maybe the buyer is planning on spending 30 years in that house. so 20k is not that big a factor. Also if they have kid(s) in the local elementary school and don’t want to switch them to different school, even if the other school is in the same town. The 8k could be used right away to recover closing costs, replenish cash used for a down payment, or towards redoing the house (8k would give you all new mid level appliances like Bosch or LG, including washer and dryer with a bit left over)

  257. meter says:

    @243, Nom:

    Just a play on words, nothing more.

  258. schabadoo says:

    is the Administration’s order in early 2009 to stop DoD from selling expended cartridges to reloaders

    I agree, the Georgia Arms thing really set it off. The timing was the key: right in the First 100 Days. That it was a 2008 Bush policy being implemented was really immaterial: the gun-grabbing fears were coming true.

    I am shocked it still going on. Somebody made a fortune on this.

  259. Confused in NJ says:

    203.willwork4beer says:
    April 19, 2010 at 3:03 pm
    #188 Confused

    A very nice school board lady “solicited” you for your vote today?

    How “nice” was she willing to be?

    I had planned to vote no on my town’s school budget increase, but maybe I should investigate how “nice” my school board is willing to be for a yes vote first…

    Now that’s “Hudson County rules”.

    Wouldn’t have worked on me anyway, as I’m part of the the society that still had prayer in schools.

  260. bp says:

    sas3 #257

    I agree. However the same square footage and same style of houses have been sold in the range of 365,000 – 430,000 in the past 18 months. Also this house is totally updated and very well cared for. However, given the fact that the house is more than 30 years old, I think the offer price is ridiculous.

    Anon #254
    It seems that people feed off each other when they get into a bidding war. People are not sitting back to reassess the current economic condition in the US. Maybe we should look at this moment as a blessing in disguise. Who knows what is going to happen in the next few months. Everything may just come trumbling down.

  261. borat obama says:

    I hate tea

  262. sas3 says:

    bp, got the picture. Who knows, may be “RE market has bottomed” (TM).

    I would suggest moving on — plenty of fish in the sea. Of course, if you really like some place, then go for it.

  263. Final Doom says:

    It’s all turning to shit. I’m around RE every day, and- contrary to what you may hear in the media- the market is in a state of total collapse.

    The forty years in the wilderness has begun.

  264. Final Doom says:

    Your next door neighbor, who takes kids to Dorney Park and sits on the PTA, is probably peddling kiddie p0rn and being watched by Interpol.

    You have to watch out, because the real monsters are the ones who act like Ned Flinders. And they tell you they’re doing God’s work.

    That’s how you know Blankfein is Satan.

  265. njescapee says:

    Dpm, Isn’t he Elmer Fudd?

  266. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    “Not to worry. News does not determine the markets. Markets determine the news.”

    Very true mr W. In this case, there are three elements – the news, the markets and a massive volcanic. The latter seems to be getting less news than Goldman Sachs, which boggles me.

    Although, it seems that the news is catching on…

    Goldman and volcano take down oil prices

    AP


    A huge cloud of volcanic ash has shut down air traffic across most of Europe for four days — stranding passengers and scuttling international travel plans and freight services that could end up costing billions of dollars.

    At the very least, traders say the volcano crisis will lower airlines’ demand for jet fuel.

    “The market had underestimated the impact of the volcano,” said Clarence Chu, a trader with market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty about how much this will affect the overall economy.”

  267. njescapee says:

    Doom, Isn’t he Elmer Fudd?

  268. veto that - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda', 'Next Fall' says:

    Global Real Estate Looks Like the Next Bubble, Says WSJ’s Greg Zuckerman

    Apr 19, 2010

    investors have been moving from one bubble to the next over the last 10 years. Rather than a passing fad, the trend is here to stay says Gregory Zuckerman, Wall Street Journal reporter and author of The Greatest Trade Ever – a book that chronicled Jim Paulson’s multi-billion dollar bet against the housing bubble.

    Paulson made his fortune betting against the pack but that’s not how most professionals succeed, Zuckerman observes. “The incentive is not to be a contrarian on Wall Street,” he says; instead, most traders, “chase the trade way too often.”

    This herding mentality combined with ease of trading thanks to computerization and new vehicles such as ETFs, plus low interest rates explains why we’re living in the “age of bubbles,” he says.

    What’s the current bubble?

    China is always high on everyone’s list. However, Zuckerman seems more concerned about global real estate. Rising prices in China, Australia, Canada and even Israel could lead to new bubble, he says.

    “Wherever interest rates are really low and yet people don’t have too much debt – like they are in this country- real estate is actually shooting higher, which is kind of troublesome.”

    How should investors protect themselves in the age of bubbles?

    Zuckerman recommends several strategies:

    –Buy downside protection. An easy way to do this is through inverse ETFs.

    –Keep more cash. Have 6-12 months of living expenses handy instead of the traditional 3-6 months.

    –Don’t buy and hold. In this age of volatility, Zuckerman says, investors may be better of taking profits.

  269. Final Doom says:

    Fed go boom:

    “Today, Chris Whalen’s Institutional Risk Analytics carries a fantastic piece by Alan Boyce, in which the author picks up where we left off some time ago in deconstructing the DV01 of the Federal Reserve’s SOMA. As a reminder, using Jefferies data, we observed that the Fed’s DV01 on its balance sheet is about $1 billion (the potential unrealized profit/loss for every basis point move in interest rates, and with ZIRP here, rates can only go up, so make that just loss without the profit) . Alan Boyce, a former Fed member, CFC executive, and Soros portfolio manager, provides a more granular analysis of the Fed’s holdings and comes up with an even scarier DV01: one that is 50% higher, or a $1,509 million/bp. This means that the Fed faces a “$75 billion loss for the first 50 bps move in the markets.” As before, it is obvious why the Fed will do everything in its power to keep rates as low as possible for as long as possible, as the vicious cycle that will begin with increasing rates will make all future press releases of how much money the US taxpayer has “made” on the US’ bailout of the mortgage industry far more problematic. Boyce also discusses how precisely it is that the Fed has managed to maintain rates at current record low levels for so long, what the cost of an appropriate hedging portfolio would be, and, critically, the implications of what will happen when markets realize that we are caught in a state of artificial suspended and Fed-endorsed animation. The primary conclusion: look for interest rate volatility to surge by 50% even as the Fed scrambles to cover hundreds of billions in losses in its portfolio sooner or later. Boyce’s summary is basically that the countdown to the end of the Fed QE regime is now on: “If you look at forward fed funds (Eurodollar curve less basis swap), the FRB will go negative carry in March 2015, where 3 month financing rates are forecast to be over 5% (just gets worse and worse from there). The point here is that mark-to-market accounting is an iron law. You cannot escape the losses just because you do not report them. If the FRB loses $200 billion on mark to market, there will be $200 billion LESS that they remit to the Treasury Department every year. That will require legislation to either raise taxes or lower spending by $200 billion (or run up bigger Federal debt to be paid back by another generation).”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/return-rate-normalcy-will-cost-fed-hundreds-billions-fed-will-go-negative-carry-2015-d-day-a

  270. Final Doom says:

    veets, China, Australia and Canada’s RE bubbles are all going to hell. And, they are collapsing even faster than ours, since (amazingly) they were pumped even fuller of crap than anything our own geniuses could’ve cooked up.

    In Victoria, Australia, homebuyers can qualify for up to 40K in tax credits and stim.

    That will end well. Yeah.

  271. Final Doom says:

    China? Well, I guess it is impressive that a 12-storey residential tower can be constructed that will break free of its foundation and tip over in one piece. While vacant.

  272. Final Doom says:

    Canada? What can you say about a bunch of bastard French, jacked up on Molson’s and sustained on a diet of gravy-soaked fries?

  273. Final Doom says:

    My niece in Canada just paid 490K for a half-duplex in a shitball Montreal neighborhood (St. Denis) that looks like Manville and is full of toothless lorry drivers. No bubble there, right?

  274. Final Doom says:

    I saw a Toll Bros short sale today whose HVAC return ducts were made of cardboard.

  275. sas says:

    “What’s the current bubble?”

    easy. over production of cheap shilt and the middle class replaced with credit cards.

    SAS

  276. Confused in NJ says:

    280.Final Doom says:
    April 19, 2010 at 10:33 pm
    I saw a Toll Bros short sale today whose HVAC return ducts were made of cardboard

    I own one, and the building sheathing under the siding, is also foil faced cardboard. They also use OSB I joists.

  277. sas says:

    “I saw a Toll Bros short sale today whose HVAC return ducts were made of cardboard”

    anyone got a smoke?

    SAS

  278. sas says:

    where is everyone?
    down at rusty kales in edgewater, off the river road?

    SAS

  279. chicagofinance says:

    Don’t worry smartie pants….I’m there……

    From:
    Sent: Monday, April 19, 2010 3:18 PM
    To:
    Subject: Vote Tomorrow 2-9pm

    VOTE YES for the school budget tomorrow! Polls in Colts Neck are open from 2-9pm. Remind your husbands to stop at the polling place tomorrow on their way home from work.

  280. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Got my potassium iodide pills in the mail today.

    Should receive my ARK III survival packs, hand crank short wave radios tomorrow. Read the DHS’s nuclear threat plan.

    Now I just need to fill up some gas containers, find an affordable radimeter, and fill some sandbags (to block the basement windows from gamma radiation).

    Good to go unless of course the next volcano eruptions causes the midatlantic ridge to slide off causing a tsunami on the east coat in which case I should order a surf board.

    Sweet dreams. Cant wait to see what sort of calamity tomorrow brings.

  281. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Tomorrow, I will participate in the annual municipal sport of voting down the public tit suckers school budget.

    Let the UN pedophile indoctrinators eat cake.

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  283. Pat says:

    Can I just take a moment to promote the benefits of Vitamin D?

    Maybe it’s just coincidence. But I was having some issues. Weird stuff like balance and vertigo.

    So my doc sends me for some test, and I’m low V D.

    So I’ve been taking it for a week and I now feel unbelievably good.

    sl, is that kind of improvement possible in a week? No more dizzy spells while running, no falling and no short-term memory lapses?

  284. Essex says:

    287. Wow. What a putz.

  285. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    Vitamin D deficiency is getting more and more common Pat. Make sure you get some sunlight so your body can make it naturally.

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  287. Pat says:

    Al, I’ve never been one of those cork soled unshaven vitamin takers.

    I eat what I want and exercise. I didn’t even know the SPF lotion I use prevents Vitamin D absorption.

  288. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Yikes not.
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    Still sticking with my prediction. It is already there in my area on select few but more to come. Went over to the other side of town Sunday like a 25 min ride Vernon is large. So many homes for sale around 1 block the signs looked like flowers all over the place. I just started laughing my daughter thought I was crazy at 13 of course she didn’t get it.
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    Pat by the way last blood test, low D for me too. Take them now when I remember.

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