Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labeled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

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214 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion

  1. jp says:

    so what’s the best way to coax a realtor at an open house to give me info on the property that they weren’t supposed to?

  2. Shore Guy says:

    BFF

  3. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Keep an eye on the food stamps number, up up & away…….. Jobless Claims: This Is Progress?

    In the week ending Sept. 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 453,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 469,000. The 4-week moving average was 458,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 464,250.

    Yeah, ok, 450k – riiight. And let’s not forget that this was a previous week revision that took off another 4,000, by (once again) revising the previous week upward. So it’s not 453, it’s 457 in terms of reality.

    But you can’t tell the monkeys that – they hit the “buy futures” button immediately, good for about 0.6% on the data release.

    This game of “blow me a bubble by lying then revising” is getting old folks. But at least it’s predictable. The entire point, of course, is for the big banks to grab a few million off the pre-market and then chuckle while your money goes down the drain (for every winner in the futures, there is an equal loser.)

    The bad news however is contained inside the report. The roll-offs from EUC (extended benefits) continue apace, and this month were nearly a quarter of a million individuals who no longer have “government cheese” coming in every week.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/227756-jobless-claims-this-is-progress?source=hp

  4. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom I gather still no number on those getting out of Dodge?

  5. Shore Guy says:

    Yesterday someone reminded me of a government program that is falsely inflating the number of private sector jobs. It is one where someone works for private companies but the USG pays the costs of that employee (shades of CETA, I suppose).

  6. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “BFF”

    Shore,

    B-Blinded
    F-Fade Away
    F-Fire

    ??

  7. Poltroon says:

    Cooked BLS numbers, Fed frontrunning, bankster-Fed collusion…this list goes on.

    One day soon, we’ll reach a tipping point at which enough Joe6s realize the gubmint is waging war on us.

  8. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [5] mike

    Not as of yesterday. Haven’t checked today. And its a new quarter, but the 3rd quarter number (which, by law, must be released by Halloween), won’t be released until closer to turkey day.

    Question is, will we see the 2nd quarter number before then? I personally think delaying it is a mistake, politically. It creates an issue for GOP/right/media to jump on, and if the number gets released closer to election day, and is huge, that also has more impact than it would otherwise.

  9. Poltroon says:

    Prez of NY FedCo saying right now that growing FedCo’s balance sheet another 500bn would be no big whoop. Just monetize every piece of crap paper available.

    We are so fcuking fcuked.

  10. Poltroon says:

    plume (9)-

    There is every probability that the number, when released, will be an outright lie.

    Every other gubmint statistic is.

  11. Poltroon says:

    Lying is how the public and private sector is dealing with the impending oblivion.

    Perfect example: yesterday, one of the mortgage guys gives me the name of an agent (noted for her years of underproduction), telling me she’s got all kinds of business lined up for him and that she told him she’d already made million-dollar club for the year. He’s all juicy for me to recruit her into the office, so I ran her numbers. Turns out, she’s done five deals since 1/1/10; too bad that million dollar club begins at a minimum of 17 transactions.

    I know any number of people in and around my business, and they should have some idea that I know what they’re doing. The hardest-hit and least productive of them are usually the ones chirping to me loudest about how good business is.

    Are we still in Kubler-Ross’ denial stage? I really hoped we were further along.

  12. jamil says:

    9 Nom:

    I doubt people care or understand the implications and State Media certainly is not going to make this an issue (other than the economic traitor populist hate monger).

    Btw, it is very difficult nowadays to renounce citizenship abroad. Waiting time for consular appointment for this is over a year (with $500 office fee) and I don’t know how flexible they are to reschedule or change time. It takes one form, 3 minutes and is a very simple procedure.

    So the actual renouncements would have much higher if it were actually possible to do it.

  13. Poltroon says:

    When I kick this country, they can come try to find my monty white ass.

  14. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Lying is how the public and private sector is dealing with the impending oblivion.”

    Doom,

    Along with delay and pray.

  15. yo'me says:

    Expats relying on SS benefits earning less than $10,000 don’t have to file income tax.
    Are they counted too?

  16. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Doom [12],

    Actually, this is how they are dealing with the inevitable oblivion;

    http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/DXY00

  17. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [13] jamil

    There are other methods, but frankly, they are more difficult or you run the risk of the US not recognizing it. As for the backlog, that is documented and may lend itself to seasonalities, suggesting that the 12/31/09 spike was really a reaction to Obama, and that there may be a much larger backlog.

    And it doesn’t account for DIYers that will simply exit with the middle finger held high and tell the IRS “want me? come get me.”

    As for state media, they will report it if they think it is a story. NYT/MSNBC will brand them traitors, and Fox will say it is evidence of the failure of Obamunism.

  18. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [16] yome

    only actual renunciants are included. Expats that don’t renounce, live off SS and other savings (and are probably not declaring offshore assets) are not in that figure. This is estimated in the tens of thousands.

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [11] troon

    Some in the expat tax community are of the opinion that the gov games this number. Unless it is over 350, I will have no faith in it.

  20. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    just checked Federal Register system at http://www.gpo.gov. Still no report.

    Now over 2 months overdue, a truly unprecedented development. Makes me wonder where else in government this is occuring.

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    International Tax News of the Day:

    “Greece’s parliament has pushed through legislation that in effect grants a tax amnesty to millions of citizens, in a move at odds with organizations overseeing the country’s bailout.

    The law will allow the government to collect about €2 billion ($3 billion) over the next two years, far short of an estimated backlog of unpaid taxes over the last decade of about €35 billion.

    The legislation has provoked sharp criticism, including from members of the governing Socialist party, which pledged when it came to power a year ago to avoid a long-standing practice by governments of agreeing across-the-board tax amnesties every three to four years.

    “The fines [in the legislation] are so small they effectively reward tax evasion … So owners of small businesses and self-employed professionals will go on disputing tax claims, hoping for another amnesty,” said George Florides, a Socialist former deputy minister.

    The measure also goes against advice from the “troika” – the European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund . . .”

  22. Poltroon says:

    BC (17)-

    Care for some cold rice and raw fish?

  23. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Nom [22],

    Heinrich Sneider will be thrilled to read that.

    By the way, when was the last time any member of the Greek parliament paid taxes?

  24. yo'me says:

    Question to the gold experts.I have a 26 grams guido 22K gold chain.How much will I expect to sell at a gold store?

  25. yo'me says:

    #25 It is really gold made from Saudi Arabia

  26. Mike says:

    In yesterday’s Star Ledger “Home Sales” under Union County NO NEW INFORMATION

  27. Shore Guy says:

    “Lying is how the public and private sector is dealing with the impending oblivion”

    Hey, Neo. I bet you are wishing you had taken the blue pill instead.

  28. Shore Guy says:

    Who is our “Mr. Smith”?

  29. Shore Guy says:

    njeescapee, are you lurking?

  30. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore 29

    That would be the banking Cartel, Gross perhaps?

  31. Confused In NJ says:

    Be interesting to see the Country divided between Wall Street, and the Soup Kitchen which replaces Main Street. Dow 50K while most of America stands in line at the Soup Kitchen.

  32. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Confused [32],

    Spot on.

    Greatest disparity since the GD. Funny, how that keeps popping up.

  33. RentinginNJ says:

    Question to the gold experts.I have a 26 grams guido 22K gold chain.How much will I expect to sell at a gold store?

    That’s 0.85 oz. Of pure gold. It’s worth about $1,100 over the exchange, but you couldn’t get this. A place like U.S. Gold Buyers would supposedly give you just under $1,000 (don’t know if they are legit). I wouldn’t take anything under $900 from a jewelry store.

  34. Poltroon says:

    yo (26)-

    You mean tungsten?

  35. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    TARP to Make Money?

    Another thing that did not work out as planned:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/business/01tarp.html?_r=1&hp

  36. PKV says:

    You made a few excellent points there. I did a search about the subject and barely found any specific details on other websites, but then happy to be here, really, appreciate that.

    – Lucas

  37. dan says:

    Can someone help me with what I am missing in this equation? I put an offer on a short sale and seller accepts so the paperwork now goes to attorney review. Seller’s lawyer says she won’t send offer to bank until I do home inspection. I fire back that I’m not doing inspection until bank agrees on price. We’re at a standstill and no one is blinking. My attorney and realtor have asked if I’m going to do the inspection otherwise I should withdraw the offer since apparently other lawyer won’t take offer to bank. I respond “Why should I withdraw offer if they’re the ones not moving forward with sending the offer to the bank?” It has been two weeks since their lawyer has said she won’t submit the offer to the bank. Anyone suggest what to do or if I’m in the wrong by not withdrawing offer since I don’t feel like paying for a home inspection and then finding out bank counteroffers $20k-30k higher later?

  38. d2b says:

    Had a conversation with a friend last week who has been unemployed for over a year sucking up extensions. She plans to start looking this month when her extended benefits run out. Important to note that she has not even been looking for work. She is thirty and has a college degree. She does not really have a field and has just decided to hang out as long as she has money coming in.

  39. d2b says:

    THad a conversation with a friend last week who has been unemployed for over a year sucking up extensions. She plans to start looking this month when her extended benefits run out. Important to note that she has not even been looking for work. She is thirty and has a college degree. She does not really have a field and has just decided to hang out as long as she has money coming in.

  40. freedy says:

    if tarp is a money maker , i’m barry obama

  41. Poltroon says:

    dan (38)-

    The seller’s lawyer shouldn’t have any part in the short sale process. The listing agent should be preparing an entire short sale package submission, of which the contract itself is only one of many elements.

    If you can’t get any traction there, call the bank’s attorney and have him give you a contact within the bank. A good loss mit person can then reach out to the seller’s side and lay down the law so you can proceed.

    The ignorance among attorneys as to the short sale process is laughable. The listing agent should’ve gotten control of this situation early on by informing everyone on the seller’s side that he is the person who will be making all applications and submissions to the bank’s loss mit department. As a rule, I will not even take short sale listings in which my client or his counsel indicate that they will pre-empt my authority or second guess my procedures.

  42. Poltroon says:

    d2b (39)-

    You might want to e-mail her a definition of the word, “monkeyhammered”.

  43. Poltroon says:

    freedy (41)-

    Just more lies, for a populace dying to hear lies.

  44. Mr Hyde says:

    Poltroon

    For the average joe, acknowledging the true nature of the current situation would cause a fatal paradox in the facade they live within. Not many people are willing to invalidate their view of the world without be forced to do so.

  45. Mr Hyde says:

    Things are looking rosy!!

    Trucking is way down, manufacturer prices are up (what the manufacturer pays) and inventories are up. I cant wait to see what commercial RE looks like after a failed holiday season.

  46. Poltroon says:

    Michael Hudson on the idiocy of protectionism:

    “The FIRE (Finance/Insurance/Real Estate) sector’s business plan has priced U.S. labor out of world markets. There seems little likelihood of making Chinese and German workers pay rents or mortgage interest as high as the United States. How can American economic strategists force them to raise the price of their college and university tuition so that they must take on the enormous student loans of the magnitude that Americans have to take on? How can they be persuaded to follow the high-cost U.S. practice of adding FICA-type wage withholding to the cost of living to save up pensions, Social Security and medical insurance in advance, instead of the pay-as-you-go basis that Germany quite rightly follows?”

    http://michael-hudson.com/2010/09/america’s-china-bashing-a-compendium-of-junk-economics/

  47. Poltroon says:

    hyde (46)-

    Got DRV?

  48. Poltroon says:

    Bojangles giving Emanuel a joyous sendoff right now. Too bad he’s not headed to the electric chair.

  49. Poltroon says:

    Hard to imagine Chicago being more of a scumpit…then I think of Rahm as mayor.

  50. Poltroon says:

    Have Rahm and his family managed to park his sister in a loony bin yet?

  51. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore [28];

    Great catch.

    You know, I know what you’re thinking, because right now I’m thinking the same thing…
    Actually, I’ve been thinking about it ever since I got here…
    (he raises his glass, and drink)
    Why, oh why, didn’t I take the blue pill ?!

    Cypher, The Matrix

  52. Al Gore says:

    Wantan,

    Whats your view on the miners? I know there are naked shorts accumulating even on the juniors now. When do you believe we will see the miners break out of the cage that holds them down and react with their righteous avengement of leverage?

    GG has an incredible balance sheet and they continue to be stuck in this trading range.

  53. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore,

    perhaps this is your Agent Smith

    William Dudley, The President of the NY Fed
    http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/67641/thumbs/s-WILIAM-DUDLEY-large.jpg

  54. Al Gore says:

    F_ckin silver is making me smile.

  55. dan says:

    Clot,

    Thanks. Maybe the banks or attorneys just aren’t interested in selling the house if they’re telling me to do an inspection before bank acceptance of my offer.

  56. Poltroon says:

    dan (56)-

    Sad thing is, the bank probably would love to see it sold short. Sounds like nobody involved knows what they’re doing.

    As a last-ditch idea, you might want to contact the bank’s attorney for the foreclosure, ask for a contact at the bank, then let that person know what’s happening. If your bank contact has some initiative, he’ll call everyone involved and tell them to pull their heads out of their arses and work together.

  57. nj escapee says:

    Shore, what’s up? been taking an online class for the past few days. boooring, like l need this at 58 :-)

  58. Poltroon says:

    The asset dwindles, the debt remains. From Lord Alan Sugar, a guy who made money in soccer, then got out:

    “How can you say anything about these foreign owners? Roman Abramovich is passionate about Chelsea and football and he is putting up the money to buy the best players in the world, and now Manchester City are doing the same. Yes, it might be unfair to everyone else, but that’s life, and it hasn’t done much harm to their football clubs, now has it?

    “But there is another type of foreign owner: The Glazers and those guys at Liverpool, Hicks and Gillett. Now, I am sorry to have to say this, but they are done. They are gone. They have big problems ahead.

    “When you buy big clubs like Manchester United and Liverpool without using your own money and lumber the club with enormous interest repayments on the debt, then you are asking for problems, and both clubs have got them.”

    Manchester City posted the second highest one year loss on Friday (at £121 million), with Abramovich’s Chelsea the top of the list in 2004-05 (at £141 million), but as Lord Sugar maintains it is meaningless in terms of the clubs’ business plan, as they are supported by their owners’ own cash.

    “Reckless lending caused the demise of the banking industry throughout the world, and banks were irresponsible in lending to these guys to enable them to buy such big football clubs,” he said. “They have used the club as an asset against the loans and that has resulted in big interest repayments on the debt.

    “Here’s the bad news: One day the Glazers, the Gilletts and Hicks will find it’s payback time and, when that day comes, if they haven’t got the money, they default, and it’s a nightmare scenario for the clubs.

    “A bank somewhere is going to own the football club and hope desperately that some investor will take over the debt. But why would they? I wouldn’t. Absolutely not. Football is not good business. An electrical company, a food chain, yes, why not, but football, you’ve got to be joking.”

    http://soccernet-assets.espn.go.com/news/story?id=828940&sec=england&cc=5901

  59. make money says:

    Question to the gold experts.I have a 26 grams guido 22K gold chain.How much will I expect to sell at a gold store?

    That’s 0.85 oz. Of pure gold. It’s worth about $1,100 over the exchange, but you couldn’t get this. A place like U.S. Gold Buyers would supposedly give you just under $1,000 (don’t know if they are legit). I wouldn’t take anything under $900 from a jewelry store.

    Let me know what you want for it. I love me some more shiny.

  60. Al Gore says:

    Hey parents! Are you raising a generation of nincompoops?

    America’s future is bright. You can add never fired a gun, never got in a fist fight, nor played sports. Just a bunch of stupid, obese, pin cushions thanks to the tax payer funded public education system and the loser parents/ teachers who graduated from them. Got vaccines?

    “NEW YORK — Second-graders who can’t tie shoes or zip jackets. Four-year-olds in Pull-Ups diapers. Five-year-olds in strollers. Teens and preteens befuddled by can openers and ice-cube trays. College kids who’ve never done laundry, taken a bus alone or addressed an envelope.

    Are we raising a generation of nincompoops? And do we have only ourselves to blame? Or are some of these things simply the result of kids growing up with push-button technology in an era when mechanical devices are gradually being replaced by electronics?

    Susan Maushart, a mother of three, says her teenage daughter “literally does not know how to use a can opener. Most cans come with pull-tops these days. I see her reaching for a can that requires a can opener, and her shoulders slump and she goes for something else.”
    http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/39387465/ns/today-parenting/

  61. homeboken says:

    61 – This protects all good beers from the amateurish hands of college kids. They can stick with the twist off Bud Light bottles and save the tastier brews for those of us that can use a bottle opener.

  62. Pat says:

    At back to school night, we were informed that the 4th grade is no longer being taught cursive. While controversial, this policy is considered to be in the best interests of the child. (B.S. – they just don’t have time for it with all the testing.)

    A really nice and intelligent mom with hardly any accent (young one – maybe early 30’s) walks out the door with me and asks why the kids would be taught cursing in the first place.

  63. chicagofinance says:

    63.Pat says:
    October 1, 2010 at 12:27 pm
    At back to school night, we were informed that the 4th grade is no longer being taught cursive. While controversial, this policy is considered to be in the best interests of the child. (B.S. – they just don’t have time for it with all the testing.)
    A really nice and intelligent mom with hardly any accent (young one – maybe early 30′s) walks out the door with me and asks why the kids would be taught cursing in the first place.

    Pat: my almost-4-year-old son came home from school and told me that they learned about “padwins” today…..I was thinking WTF is that? Then he pulls out his worksheet and shows me patterns…….I wracked my brain and came up with the teaching assistant has a heavy Staten Island accent, and padwin was my son’s best approximation of it saying pattern…..yeeech….

  64. Pat says:

    I don’t even have an accent like that and I get asked all the time down here to say words.

    One of the Dads at the pool sits behind me at meets and leans forward. His wife told me on the down-low that he loves to listen to me yell all the time at my husband and friends and daughter.

    I’m just talking to them.

  65. Mr Hyde says:

    BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. retailers’ sales will climb 3 percent to 3.5 percent this holiday season, the best performance since 2006, as the economy improves, the International Council of Shopping Centers said.

  66. Shore Guy says:

    escapee,

    I was wondering if you had any thoughts about the Gibson SG ’61. Have you played one?

  67. chicagofinance says:

    66.Pat says:
    October 1, 2010 at 12:44 pm
    I don’t even have an accent like that and I get asked all the time down here to say words. One of the Dads at the pool sits behind me at meets and leans forward. His wife told me on the down-low that he loves to listen to me yell all the time at my husband and friends and daughter. I’m just talking to them.

    Pat: my cousin is dead-on Fran Drescher; my mom will do you a “fayva” but shops for shoes at “Favors”……..

  68. yo'me says:

    #60 Make

    Make me an offer I can’t refuse.

  69. Double Down says:

    “what’s the best way to coax a realtor at an open house to give me info on the property that they weren’t supposed to”

    Just say hello.

  70. nj escapee says:

    Shore, don’t think I came across a 61 but I know I played a few mid to late 60s vintages SG standards and customs. they were all very fine solid bodies. My faves though were the les paul juniors.

  71. homeboken says:

    Snip from the Beth Cottrel MERS deposition – The last line is my favorite:

    Q. Going back to the affidavit of the amounts due and owing, please. In paragraph 2 you state that you had personal knowledge of the matters contained in the books, records, and documents kept by Chase. What books, records, and documents were you referring to there?
    A. History on the loan.
    Q. And what sort of history?
    A. Payment and where the amounts came from.
    Q. And tell me what documents you looked at concerning the payment history.
    A. That’s a system called MSP, and it’s a history screen that gives me a breakdown.
    Q. And you personally looked at that prior to signing this affidavit?
    A. No.
    Q. Did you look at anything else besides –well, I should say did you look at any books records, and/or documents before you signed this affidavit?
    A. No.

    Q. So if you didn’t review any books, records, and documents or computerized records, how is it that you had personal knowledge of all the matters contained therein?
    A. Well, I have personal knowledge that my staff has personal knowledge. That is our process.

  72. Nicholas says:

    Nom,

    Perhaps you should just contact them and ask where you can find the report? I think that this two month passive resistance thing you have going on isn’t doing you much good.

    Yes the report may be intentionally being withheld. Another more likely scenario would be that the person who normally writes and posts the report has retired (older aging gov. population) and person replacing them has no idea that the report needs to be posted. Just contact them, via email or phone, and let them know that the report was interesting and beneficial to you and others.

    If I could determine where the old reports were and how to contact the office I might have even done it for you. Dis-regard this wisdom if you have already contacted them as I don’t always get a chance to read every post on this blog.

  73. Mr Hyde says:

    ….Harrisburg Mayor Linda Thompson asked Pennsylvania to determine the city to be in municipal financial distress so it would qualify for help and oversight under the state’s Act 47 program.

    The city “stands on the precipice of full-blown financial crisis as a looming cash shortfall threatens its ability to pay vendors and meet payroll,” a statement from the mayor’s office said.

  74. Fabius Maximus says:

    #59 Clot

    Whil I think technically he made money. Bought for 8M sold for 22M during bubble years. I think Sugar came up with the best description of his time with Spurs before he sold it to a private equity firm

    http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/english-premier-league/news/938230/Sugar-I-have-failed

  75. Mr Hyde says:

    Boken 75

    Evidnece of blatant mortgage fraud. Perhaps this is the link you read.

    Two Original “WET INK” Notes Discovered in Same Foreclosure Case – Beth Cottrell JPMorgan Chase Team
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/two-original-%E2%80%9Cwet-ink%E2%80%9D-notes-discovered-same-foreclosure-case-%E2%80%93-beth-cottrell-jpmorgan-chase

    Gee i wonder if blatant alteration of notes happened large scale. Now prove who legally holds the title.

  76. homeboken says:

    Wait, so not only did she rely on her personal knowledge that her staff had personal knowledge, but they also didn’t even really sign them.

    That would be my loophole, sorry your honor, that isn’t my signature. The bank created an electronic signature and applied it without my knowledge.

  77. Fabius Maximus says:

    Talking of Sugar, this will realy avoid confusion.

    “In an effort to avoid consumer confusion and to help us all to make better decisions, the Corn Refiners Association (CRA) recently petitioned the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow the labeling of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) as simply “corn sugar.””

    http://www.examiner.com/parenting-education-in-miami/high-fructose-corn-syrup-may-soon-be-labeled-as-corn-sugar

  78. homeboken says:

    82 – Keeping with the theme, I would like to refer to bacon-cheeseburgers as “broccoli” and a bottle of Oban as “vitamin water.”

  79. Barbara says:

    Will be making on offer on a park front diamond in the rough. She’s a big craftsman and we will finish out the attic if we get it (long shot). It will be a 5 bed, 3 bath with a large first floor living space. Its an estate, the kiddies are at a fantasy price, 100k over. We will make a one shot offer and let it be know that we are making another offer on another park front home, same town, same realty, same day. My realtor says she’s got 130 properties in and nothing much is moving. This house, btw, is vacant and they just discovered that that roof from 1990ish, well….its leaking. Husband and I discovered it while looking at the attic. The listing agent got out there and email pics. Sellers say they are willing to negotiate. Here’s a funny thing, the asking is the same as the assessed and the sellers are contesting the assessment. LULZ. Wish us luck or whatever.

  80. Barbara says:

    um, ok I really need to proof read this shiz. Know = known on = an blah blah

  81. Juice Box says:

    ROFL!

    Just in case you needed a reminder to be nice to people online, here it is!

    http://gawker.com/5652787/woman-travels-four-hours-with-gun-to-kill-mean-internet-commenter

  82. Sheryl says:

    Just have to comment to say that this site is very informative and I’m very glad I found it. The comments here are rather confusing… but I’m still reading through them all.

    We bought our first home, a condo, in the Summer of 2006… since then it has totally lost value. We’re hoping to sell it now, make what we owe on the mortgage (may happen) and then score with a great deal on a bigger house in the same town. We’ll see. The potential buyers are NOT coming around. Lots of foreclosures in our community, bringing the housing prices down even more. Very depressing.

    Again, thanks for running this site! It gives me many simple truths, without all the Realtor-speak.

  83. Mr Hyde says:

    Sheryl

    We’re hoping to sell it now, make what we owe on the mortgage (may happen) and then score with a great deal on a bigger house in the same town

    Thats were your problem starts. That bigger house you want is trying to do the same thing as you and is not going to drop to “market” prices until they are financially forced to do so. As has been pointed out we are in the middle of a mexican standoff between buyers and sellers.

    The potential buyers are NOT coming around

    If you really want to sell the place, drop the price until buyers show up.

  84. Double Down says:

    Hyde, one just needs to find a house bought long ago, where the owner has lots of equity, and can keep dropping the price until a buyer materializes. These are the only real sellers in today’s market, and are unfortunately a small percentage of sellers, but they do exist.

  85. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    As a native Staten Islander, I represent, verbally, those past remarks! Hey, no matter how bad you think it is here in NJ, just remember, to 500,000 Staten Islanders and 3 million Brooklynites, this is the promised land! My favorites are:

    Off street parking so you do not have to shovel a place for your car when you make it home from work in the Winter!

    No surcharge on your Electric Bill to pay for the MTA

    No surcharge on your paycheck to pay for the MTA

    Did I mention parking?

  86. Mr Hyde says:

    Double Down 89

    I know some one in that exact situation, and from my personal experience their mindset is still 2006. They arent going give their house away.

  87. Barbara says:

    Double down,
    even in that situation most just home ec’d the shiz out of it (see C class 2 seater in driveway and/or motorboat/RV).

  88. homeboken says:

    HAHAHAHA – Try again SEC:

    From the CME:

    Futures and options markets are hedging and risk transfer markets. The report references a series of bona fide hedging transactions, totaling 75,000 contracts, entered into by an institutional asset manager to hedge a portion of the risk in its $75 billion investment portfolio in response to global economic events and the fundamentally deteriorating market conditions that day. The 75,000 contracts represented 1.3% of the total E-Mini volume of 5.7 million contracts on May 6 and less than 9% of the volume during the time period in which the orders were executed. The prevailing market sentiment was evident well before these orders were placed, and the orders, as well as the manner in which they were entered, were both legitimate and consistent with market practices. These hedging orders were entered in relatively small quantities and in a manner designed to dynamically adapt to market liquidity by participating in a target percentage of 9% of the volume executed in the market. As a result of the significant volumes traded in the market, the hedge was completed in approximately twenty minutes, with more than half of the participant’s volume executed as the market rallied – not as the market declined. Additionally, the aggregate size of this participant’s orders was not known to other market participants.

    Additionally, the most precipitous period of market decline in the E-Mini S&P 500 futures on May 6 occurred during the 3½ minute period immediately preceding the market bottom that was established at 13:45:28. During that period, the participant hedging its portfolio represented less than 5% of the total volume of sales in the market.

  89. make money says:

    Make me an offer I can’t refuse.

    Yo’me,

    I have never done that.
    If you want to move it, stop screwing around and tell me how much you want for it.

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    But, but, but, Obama said if we liked our insurers, we could keep them!

    “The Principal Financial Group announced on Thursday that it planned to stop selling health insurance, another sign of upheaval emerging among insurers as the new federal health law starts to take effect.

    The company, based in Iowa, provides coverage to about 840,000 people who receive their insurance through an employer.

    Principal’s decision closely tracks moves by other insurers that have indicated in recent weeks that they plan to drop out of certain segments of the market, like the business of selling child-only policies. State regulators say some insurance companies are already threatening to leave particular markets because of the new law. And some regulators in states like Maine and Iowa have asked the Obama administration to give insurers more time to comply with some of the new rules. . . .”

    Also, a doctor being interviewed on FBN said that the faults in PPACA that will lead to higher costs, fewer options, and fewer insurers was “by design.” He must be nuts because I said the same thing last year and the board libs questioned my sanity.

    Facts are vicious things some times, aren’t they?

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [86] juice box

    Funny, if not for the obvious tragic aspect.

    I wouldn’t waste a bullet on any of the posters here that try (operative word being try) to annoy me. That said, I might leave a Shell No-Pest strip or two hanging outside Schab’s and Fabius’ doors.

    In all seriousness, ad hominen attacks and personal attacks that are based on faulty perceptions cheapen the board, not only hurting grim but hurting us.

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [83] homeboken

    ” a bottle of Oban as “vitamin water.”

    Good news. That will make me feel better about cracking it open.

  93. bp says:

    Barbara,
    Wish you all the best. Hope you finally get what you were looking for.

    bp

  94. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [76] nick

    The woman’s name is Angie Kaminski and she works in the Philadelphia IRS office. (Philly gets a lot of these oddball data collection operations). If you want to call on my behalf, feel free. I may even be able to get you a phone number if it isn’t in the past FR releases.

    I don’t call because (1) I suspect others have so why duplicate effort; and (2) as you also suggest, the report is likely being withheld so calling would be pointless, wouldn’t it?

    As for your theory that IRS simply forgot because she retired and no one thought to pick this up, this is a report required by law (26 USC 6039G), and has an entire section of people that collect the data and compile it. In your world these things may happen; I sincerely doubt it happened at IRS.

    Also, you aren’t thinking like a political operative or lawyer here; why would I want the report released when its non-release serves my purposes?

  95. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [76] nicholas

    here you go:

    Angie Kaminski,
    Manager Team 103, Examinations
    Operations—Philadelphia Compliance
    Services.

    No phone number, but some law libraries that carry Tax Analysts services may have their directory, which may have the number. Otherwise, welcome to the machine.

  96. wtf says:

    Yes! Thank you Republicans!

    Assembly fails to override Christie veto of N.J. homebuyer tax credit

    http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/state/assembly-fails-to-override-christie-veto-of-nj-homebuyer-tax-credit

  97. the useful advises you provided do help our team’s research for my company, appreaciate that.

    – Lucas

  98. Revelations says:

    For the Short sale/Sheriff sale/foreclosure/REO crowd:

    At a sheriff sale, can the bank bid up a property beyond the judgment?
    Contacted the bank before the sheriff auction, and they said to call back a week before the sale date as they are still trying to determine the reserve. The reserve in question would have to be less than or equal to the judgment, right? Can they speculate on the property during proceedings by bidding it higher? Still tracking down the “homeowner” to cut a deal, but was trying to lay out plan B.

    Thanks for any insight.

  99. Poltroon says:

    chi (65)-

    Turning our kids into idiots is just another front in the gubmint’s war against us.

    As always, I stand ready to start shooting people.

  100. Revelations says:

    P.S. Nom, I also find the renunciation numbers you post interesting. Very relevant to the macro trends discussed here.

    Just casting my vote.

  101. Poltroon says:

    gluteus (82)-

    The equivalent of daisy cutters in TPTB’s war on us: turn everyone into fat, lethargic, diabetic bags of gristle, like the people in Wall-E.

    “In an effort to avoid consumer confusion and to help us all to make better decisions, the Corn Refiners Association (CRA) recently petitioned the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to allow the labeling of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) as simply “corn sugar.””

  102. Poltroon says:

    juice (86)-

    Too bad we couldn’t turn this girl on Frank.

  103. Revelations says:

    To add to the growing wealth of anecdata, aunt & uncle-in-laws stopped paying mortgage 2 years ago and were getting nasty grams/foreclosure notices from the bank (HELOC’d out the arse, and well over six figures underwater). Whole family was very distraught about the whole thing. Not sure what stage of foreclosure they’re in now, but they are still living there and still not paying. Has become somewhat of a family joke now.

  104. Fast Eddie says:

    Barbara,

    Good luck on the house. Don’t bend at all on the price; you know what the actual value is and not some dream figure. Give them your final price and a dead line, period. If they get insulted, tell them to come back in a few months when the pain gets too unbearable and then maybe you’ll reconsider.

  105. Poltroon says:

    Rev (104)-

    You stand a better chance being plopped into the middle of the final table at the World Series of Poker and walking off with the bracelet than making an intelligent, successful bid at a sheriff sale.

    IF- and only if- you know EXACTLY what you are doing, already know the condition of the property, already know what the upset price will be (because you have already done your own extensive title search) and already have extensive bidding experience in sheriff sales…you might stand to be successful in this situation.

    I have spent a lot of time at sheriff sales, and those guys with page after page of spreadsheets and the guys who are known to all the bailiffs and court reporters didn’t just fall off a turnip truck. Their job is to tan your hide, and they can do it in such a manner that you don’t even know your flesh is coming off the bone.

    In the interest of helping you avoid a huge mistake, I’m not even going to address your question. Please don’t do what I really hope you’re not thinking of doing.

  106. Poltroon says:

    When all those spreadsheet guys stop bidding and let you have the property, get worried. Very, very worried.

  107. Poltroon says:

    No FKs, no price discovery. No price discovery? No market and no sales.

    Folks, we are now entering the Valley of Darkness.

    Update: “Bank of America is delaying foreclosures in 23 states as it examines whether it rushed the foreclosure process for thousands of homeowners without reading the documents.”

    The third major bank joins JPM and Ally, which have already halted foreclosures, in admitting that one of its officials “signed up to 8000 foreclosure documents a month and typically didn’t read them.” Which means Bank of America is about to halt its foreclosure process. Which leaves us with the last big mortgage lender: Wells Fargo, which is quietly doing the opposite. As American Banker reports, Wells is actually curtailing extensions on residential short sales, in a last ditch attempt to accelerate the foreclosure process before it also falls under the spotlight of fraudulent foreclosure disclosure. And Wells has more than everyone else combined, courtesy of its core market on the West Coast which, as it will soon be uncovered, has more mortgage fraud than any place in the known and unknown universe. As one reader wonders: “You think Wells is trying to hide more losses or are the banks switching to 100% bulk sale liquidations?” If indeed this is nothing than a last ditch attempt to dump as much as possible before the REO spigot is shut off, then shit is really about to hit the fan.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-joins-jpmorgan-and-ally-admitting-it-never-validated-foreclosures-docs

  108. Revelations says:

    Clot,
    I know what I am doing and no intention of bidding at the sheriff sale. Only pursuing a deal before, or redemption after, the auction. I do appreciate your response and warning, but the question remains. Bank was contacted to mine for info, but I was interested by their response, which implied they were seeking true value which is significantly higher than their judgment (the mortgage and unpaid interest/penalties being the only encumbrance). I can get the answer from a lawyer, just thought I’d post the question for all.

  109. yo'me says:

    #94 Make

    I will keep you in mind when I decide to unload it

  110. grim says:

    116 – Crap…

    Prices of higher-priced homes have (generally) declined more, as measured in dollars and/or percentage of price, than have prices of lower-priced homes.

    Not quite accurate, and a bit misleading. S&P Case Shiller HPI, high tier price group has shown less of a percentage decline than the lower and middle tiers. Comparing on a dollar for dollar basis isn’t a very good comparison. Now, if we’re saying the percentage declines were equal among tiers, of course the higher priced home is going to take a larger dollar loss.

    But it’s like saying, “It’s ok to take a $50,000 loss, since the seller of the house you are buying is taking a $100k loss”. Oh, and can I represent you on both deals to get two scoops of commission?

  111. relo says:

    104: Rev,

    Have never seen a bank bid above what is owed. As to whether this is permissible, I can’t say. However, why would they do so? Are they building a version of the prop desk for RE? With the amount of $100 bids going over like a fart in church, I’d imagine they’d let go of whatever they could. Especially with the supposed halt on new FK’s to add to the future glut. Full disclosure, haven’t been to an auction since TSHTF for the reasons Clot details among others.

  112. relo says:

    Barb,

    Good luck and give ’em hell.

  113. relo says:

    2: JP,

    A bottle of Knob Creek might ply even the most stalwart.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ckFuURIWXc

  114. SeanSouth says:

    Does ANYONE comment on real estate? I get emails every time a house is sold in Bridgewater between 200k-350k. Almost none were sold in July and August, but September saw 2-5 a week go under contract. These low rates are starting to move some product – maybe in just the low range.

  115. relo says:

    121: Seany,

    Point taken. Here you go.

    http://sports.myway.com/news/10012010/v9388.html

    Does ANYONE comment on real estate?

  116. schabadoo says:

    Point taken. Here you go.

    http://sports.myway.com/news/10012010/v9388.html

    The hits just keep on coming. Bulging disks are potential disasters.

  117. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Does ANYONE comment on real estate?”

    I heard Dandy Don comment;

    Turn out the lights, the party’s over.

  118. Barbara says:

    Thanks all :) At the very least, should make for some interesting posting next week.

  119. Poltroon says:

    rev (114)-

    I’m pretty sure what they meant to tell you was that they were still calculating the upset price…the mtg. balance, plus the sum of all other liens, penalties, fees, etc.

  120. Poltroon says:

    Sorry…when I get the feeling people are going to try an bid at a sheriff sale, it scares the poo out of me. Those are shark-infested waters.

  121. Poltroon says:

    grim (117)-

    Don’t know if you have any handy graphs to prove it, but one of the hallmarks of a market in full decline is all price ranges falling at the same rate.

    If we still haven’t gotten to that “terminal velocity” in NJ yet, I’d say further declines are in order.

  122. Poltroon says:

    Further declines are in order because the market is broken, can’t clear and is mainly characterized by a surfeit of belly-up properties that were financed and repossessed via massive frauds.

  123. Poltroon says:

    So sit on that and rotate, Sue Adler.

  124. Mr Hyde says:

    Poltroon 128

    I have that data and will try and put it up tomorrow night

  125. SeanSouth says:

    117 – thanks grim for pointing out the obvious in 116. Saved someone the trouble.

  126. SeanSouth says:

    House Hunter is the Jamil of real estate.

  127. dan says:

    Clot,

    Thanks for earlier. At this point, I haven’t withdrawn the offer. I’m tempted to tell them that this will make a great story in the papers about how a lawyer doesn’t push an offer to the bank because I won’t kiss her ass to do a home inspection beforehand as if appraisals or title searches couldn’t screw it up. These clowns don’t realize that in two months, the prices of similar townhouses will be going for the same price without the hassle.

  128. Fabius Maximus says:

    #117 grim,

    There is a small point here to consider. If back in 2003 I may have had to to buy the POS Cape at 300K because I couldn’t afford the 400K in the next town up. Now a few years later, If my cape has dropped to 2000 prices and the big dog house has gone to 2000 as well. I’m getting back in and out with a discount on inflation. I’m not selling my POS at 500K to buy the trade up at 800K. I’m selling at 250K to buy up at 400K.

  129. Fabius Maximus says:

    Sorry second 400K should be around 350K.

  130. Barbara says:

    133.

    well done.

  131. Pat says:

    Wow. You must’ve paid cash for that POS Cape.

    Cause I dunno where you be getting the 400k for the big dog.

    Did you get a gubmint job recently?

  132. grim says:

    Compare green (high price tier) and blue (low price tier)

    http://njrereport.com/images/sept10_sp.gif

    The smarter arbitrage play might actually be the “move down” scenario, completely opposite of what #116 argues.

    Heck, I’d argue that the even smarter move is a lateral out-of-state play, where you plow your big Jersey equity into a similar house in a lower cost state, thereby eliminating your mortgage, lowering your taxes and car insurance. So you might need to take a bit of a pay cut, the lower costs should more than compensate.

    No worries, you can have the boys in the NYC office overnight you bagels and pizza on the corporate tab.

  133. grim says:

    From the last S&P Case Shiller:

    Low Tier (Under $289395) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 24.4% from peak

    Mid Tier ($289,395 – $450,042) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 21.0% from peak

    High Tier (Over $450042) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 14.0% from peak

    Moving from low to mid tiers is probably the least painful jump, with only a 3% delta in decline rates, versus mid to high with a 7% delta. Worst of all is the 10% hit you’d be taking from Low to High in one jump.

    I’m not saying don’t move up if the move up makes sense.

    But the argument 116 is making just doesn’t hold water.

    I’d rather they just said “if your wife likes it, buy it, because if you don’t, you are never going to hear the end of it”. At least that argument makes sense.

    And lastly, when the market recovers, it’s going to be the lower tiers that see the faster/greater appreciation. Just like back in 2001/2002 when the low tier detached itself from the market and started rocketing upwards.

  134. Fast Eddie says:

    In regards to #116,

    We’re still 15% to 20% away from the long term trend line. You can tell the sellers, “you can accept my offer now, or accept a lower one 6 months from now… or 12 months from now. Your choice.” A f*cking bilevel in Hillsdale should not be listed for more than a half million dollars. Let it rot. Your solvent, they’re not.

  135. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Morgan Stanley analysts push housing price trough to 2012

    Morgan Stanley analysts expect housing prices to continue to slide, reaching new depths in 2012, as home sales have yet to bottom and appear to be lower than two years ago.

    Analysts said owner-occupied housing hasn’t improved despite some private-sector job gains, increased household formations, and mortgage rates at generational lows. As lending standards tighten, mortgage originations backed by the Federal Housing Administration is also slowing and further hindering homeownership, according to Morgan Stanley.

    “There is a very good chance that both total home sales in 2010, as well as the average of home sales in 2009 and 2010, will be lower than in 2008,” the analysts said in the investment giant’s recent Housing Market Insights report.

    Morgan Stanley expects 2011 home prices to fall 5% to 10% from this year with four years of flat prices after that, although “the risk of slight additional downside in prices, and extension of the trough to 2012, has increased.”

  136. Fast Eddie says:

    It takes 3 components to build wealth: time, money and patience. Time and money is the easy part. Patience is lacking in 99.99% of the population because people are dolts and easily brainwashed. That’s why they’re f*cking broke. Let the sh1t rot and pick the carcass clean when everything is a smoldering mess. Again, a general rule of thumb is take 20% off the list and that is your best and final offer. Take it or leave it. If they don’t accept, wish them well in their bakruptcy proceedings and move to the next victim.

  137. grim says:

    Although this very high tier home lost 20% since 2006.

    Unfortunately this shows that it isn’t only sellers, our own government is clearly delusional as well.

    From the Record:

    Ponzi schemer’s Saddle River house sells for $4.6 million

    Ponzi schemer James Nicholson’s 21-room Saddle River chateau has sold for $4.6 million, well below the $5.75 million he paid in 2006.

    The house at 44 Oak Road was sold by federal marshals, along with other expensive properties owned by Nicholson, to repay his fraud victims. Nicholson pleaded guilty in 2009 to running a multimillion-dollar Ponzi scheme through his hedge fund, Westgate Capital Management of Pearl River, N.Y.

    Marshals put the house on the market about a year ago, starting with an asking price of $7.9 million. The asking price was later reduced to $6.3 million.

    The lower sale price reflects the downturn in the housing market since prices peaked in 2006, according to Nelson Chen, a Fort Lee real estate broker.

  138. grim says:

    Ooops! Priced it more than 70% too high.

    Idiots.

    Like a dealer pricing a Toyota Camry at $50,000 and wondering why he gets no takers.

    It must be the economy and jobless rate, look unemployment is still near 10%.

    No, it must be tight lending, nobody can get a loan anymore.

    No, no, I know what it is, it is a lack of confidence in the markets. This Camry is WORTH $50,000. I’m not just going to give it away.

  139. Poltroon says:

    What’s that I smell? Could it be the stench of oblivion?

  140. willwork4beer says:

    A tale of two neighbors:

    Interesting comparison of two neighboring houses. One aggressively cutting asking price, one trying to get back their money from 2005 purchase price.

    I’ll bet the folks at 2 York are pretty ticked off at their neighbors at 4 York.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1080961586-4-York-Rd-Pennington-NJ-08534

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3026770464-2-York-Rd-Petnnington-NJ-08534

  141. Still_Renting says:

    Grim, need some help,
    Went to an open house and after, realtor e-mailed me some listings. I can not get a straight answer on the part of the listings that states LandAsmt,ImprAsmt & TotAsmt. Does this section only pertain to the taxes or is this what the house is worth or both? Some of the listings received,the asking prices are almost $100,000.00 more than the assessment. How do you truly find out what a house is worth?

  142. Yo'me says:

    I was told by my BIL,couple of bidding war in his neighborhood in West Windsor.I told him,they were probably priced to move.Usually the buyer do their homework.

  143. grim says:

    Assessment is not the same as appraised value.

    The assessment values you see in the listing are determined by the township for tax purposes. While you can compare the assessments of similar homes in similar sections of the same town to get a feel for underlying value, it is difficult to use this figure in a vacuum.

    I can point to towns that haven’t assessed in a long while, whose assessments appear to be on par with car prices. However, the equalization rates and tax rates are significantly higher than in towns who recently assessed.

    Not to mention that the tax assessment might be way off the mark, too low or too high. Each of those represents a whole other issue. Too low, you might be in for a surprise when the town undergoes a revaluation, too high and you’ll need to fight the town to get it lowered.

    I recommend that clients take caution when listing agents tout the fact that the asking price is “under the assessed value!”. That doesn’t always mean the property is bargain priced. It could just as easily mean the property was overassessed at peak. In that case, it damn well better be under assessed value, WAY under.

  144. Still_Renting says:

    Thank you, it amazing how no one could give me a straight answer.

  145. Fast Eddie says:

    Still_Renting,

    They could not give you a staight answer because 99% of realtors are chain-smoking blockheads reeking from the same graveolent odor as the dump they’re trying to pawn off on some unsuspecting buyer who happens to be a dimwit like themselves. The 6 year business track curriculum at Compton Regional High School was difficult for them, thus the lack of understanding of the term “assessment”.

  146. Orion says:

    Grim,

    Thanks for your clarification/insight @ 150. Been pondering the same question.
    I see comments of “below assessed value” on many listings.

  147. Orion says:

    Question for Toms River residents: Is every house in your entire town for sale?
    Every single day (for several months now) it seems several houses come up for sale!

  148. schabadoo says:

    willwork4beer

    Great catch. That 2 bedroom is living in a dream world.

    BTW do people buy 2 bedroom houses anymore?

  149. Live Sex says:

    No two individuals have the same traits and characteristics.

  150. Shore Guy says:

    What the nation needs right now is a Springsteen Christmas show.

  151. Shore Guy says:

    “BTW do people buy 2 bedroom houses anymore?”

    Only in the form of condos, town houses, and beach/lake cottages.

  152. Toejam says:

    Anyone have good/bad experiences with a Honda Pilot? We’re close to grabbing one (used, obviously; yes, we have read millionaire next door). In our research, it is by far the most reliable and long-lasting SUV. They seem to retain their price well, too.

    Really like the third row of seats in the Pilot.

  153. Mr Hyde says:

    Toejam

    the Toyota 4runner is probably the best SUB fir reliability overall

  154. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “What the nation needs right now is a Springsteen Christmas show.”

    Shore,

    I’m in.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9ePvMQA20E&feature=related

  155. Al Gore says:

    I have a new bold prediction with a timespan of 1 year.

    30 year fixed at 3 3/8. That will be a 3.375 for the well qualified.

  156. Essex says:

    160. Possible subframe issues…they subcontracted that job to a US firm with some very mixed results. Often breaking frames. Google it.

  157. Shore Guy says:

    Time to crack open the warehouse and pull out the gear.

  158. NJCoast says:

    “What the nation needs right now is a Springsteen Christmas show.”

    January 15, 2011- Light of Day Concert- Paramount Theatre, Asbury Park. There will be a reunion of Kinderhook Creek along with other shore area songsters that always show up.

  159. Shore Guy says:

    NJC,

    Do you know when tickets will go on sale?

  160. cobbler says:

    grim [140]
    And lastly, when the market recovers, it’s going to be the lower tiers that see the faster/greater appreciation. Just like back in 2001/2002 when the low tier detached itself from the market and started rocketing upwards.

    Arguably, the tiers had been going together during the many years of pre-bubble market… To me, the tiers converging back to a single line will be a possible indication that the market has finally equilibrated; hard to predict when it happens, but clearly the lower tier has a long way to go down yet. Does anyone know how the tiers are set up – is it 1/3 of the total # of transactions, or 1/3 of the total RE by the value, or 1/3 of the total number of units – or not 1/3 each but some other split?

  161. Shore Guy says:

    NJC/BC,

    I suppose that soon we will be, “Just around the corner from the light of day.”

  162. Shore Guy says:

    From the San Francisco Chronicle, via sfgaate.com :

    So, CA is short $19B, the governator calls for $12B in cuts, the legislature agrees to $7 B in cuts, and they all call it a day.

    The part of the plan that relies upon economic improvement and extra aid from Uncle Sam sure seems well thought out.

    “After a record-long impasse, California legislators are set to vote this week on a no-new-taxes budget that relies on a combination of spending cuts and optimistic financial projections to close a $19 billion deficit.
    Details of the agreement between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders began emerging Saturday ahead of a vote by rank-and-file lawmakers planned for Thursday. If approved, it would end a budget stalemate that has already stretched for 94 days.
    The state would cut about $7.5 billion in spending as part of the deal, down from the $12 billion Schwarzenegger proposed earlier this year.
    To make up the shortfall, the agreement counts on an improving economy and the federal government to provide more money than previously projected”

  163. Shore Guy says:

    In essence, CA is like a family that is wildly overspending and is counting on a raise and a check from a rich uncle to make ends meet.

  164. cobbler says:

    OK, I answered my own question[167]: equal number of transaction for each tier.
    For the purpose of constructing the three tier indices, price breakpoints between low-tier and middle-tier properties and price breakpoints between middle-tier and upper-tier properties are computed using all sales for each period, so that there are the same number of sales, after accounting for exclusions, in each of the three tiers. The breakpoints are smoothed through time to eliminate seasonal and other transient variation. Each repeatsale pair is then allocated to one of the three tiers depending on first sale price, resulting in a repeat sales pairs data set divided into thirds. The same methods used for the Metro Area Indices are applied separately to each of these three data sets to produce the Low-Tier, Medium-Tier and High-Tier Indices.

    Note that the allocation into tiers is made according to first sale price. Individual
    properties may shift between price tiers from one sale date to the next. We use only the tier of the first sale, ignoring the tier of the second sale. This allocation was chosen so that each of the tier indices closely represents a portfolio of homes that could be
    constructed on each date using information actually available on that date. Thus, the tier indices are essentially replicable by forming a portfolio of houses in real time. The Low-Tier index for a metro area is an indicator of a strategy of buying homes falling in the bottom third of sale prices (while the High Tier Index as an indicator of a strategy of buying homes in the top third of sale prices) and holding them as investments for as long as the homeowner lived in the home. The trend of home price indices in each of the three tiers reflects the outcome of such an investment strategy.

    A “value effect,” has been noted in the tier indices: low-tier indices have typically appreciated somewhat more than high-tier indices. Part of this value effect may be analogous to the effect that motivates value-investing strategies in the stock market. Individual homes’ prices have shown some tendency to mean revert, so purchasing low-priced homes may have been an overall good investment strategy. We do not know whether this value effect will continue into the future, and the value effect has not been stable through time even in the historic sample that we have observed.

    The high-tier indices will tend to lie closer to the aggregate indices than do the low-tier
    indices. This is as we would expect, since the aggregate indices are value-weighted and
    hence the high-tier repeat sales figure more prominently in the aggregate indices.

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_Case_Shiller_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

  165. Shore Guy says:

    After 5:00 p.m., please slide brains through slot in door:

    http://wap.cbsnews.com/site?t=xg18VsqCveLn9uz7B6ecNA&sid=cbsnews

  166. yo'me says:

    LSU V Tenn What a game of confusion!!

  167. Poltroon says:

    Al (162)-

    At that rate, the bank will also be giving you a free Mossberg as a closing gift.

  168. nj escapee says:

    Our friend just turned us on to an organic produce buying club in South Florida. It will be a nice change since we don’t have Whole Foods or any high end super markets in Key West. Does anyone have experience with this kind of arrangement?

  169. Poltroon says:

    shore (172)-

    Shit! That’s where it is.

  170. Poltroon says:

    escape (175)-

    Hope you like zucchini.

  171. nj escapee says:

    lol

  172. Revelations says:

    118 (Relo) & 126 (Poltroon):

    Thanks for the replies. I thought as much, but was thrown by their mention of “true value”. I would think even if the bank did bid it higher, it would just add to the homeowner’s surplus. Perhaps they had not yet realized that the judgment is well below current market value. It’s an interesting case. Home was listed and expired (MLS) for way too much $, but title search reveals a modest liability. I can’t figure out why they would let the bank take it for less than its land value.
    And I agree sheriff sales in NJ are definitely not for dabblers.

  173. Revelations says:

    148 (Still Renting),

    I’ll see a lot of “offered for $X below assessed value”. And a cursory search of records in that town shows that nearly all homes are over-assessed. It’s basically saying, “You’ll be over-assessed! Now, it’s your problem to fix your tax bill.”

    From what I understand, you cannot be assessed above true value, but below is ok. That does not mean your town thinks that the ridiculously low assessment is what your house is worth. To see what the town really thinks your house is worth, you need to apply the town’s “average ratio” (google it for your county).

    http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/taxation/pdf/lpt/ptappeal.pdf

  174. NJCoast says:

    Shore-

    Not sure when tickets go on sale, but this website will give you more info. It will be their 11th annual show.

    http://www.lightofday.org/

  175. Shore Guy says:

    Thanks.

  176. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    How are you mending?

  177. Fabius Maximus says:

    #175 nj escapee

    If you can keep on top of it, ther is nothing better, in some ways it forces you to cook healthy. As soon as you get your weekly box, start to plan the meals for the week and stick to the plan. Otherwise you can get backed up and end up with a lot of spoilage.

    Stuff like beets, that take a while to cook and can sit in the fridge cooked should hit the stove as soon as they arrive.

    Clot,
    Zucchini Ice Cream, get creative!

  178. Salty Steve says:

    162 / 174

    We just officially re-financed with wells-fargo again using their 3 step refi- program… no costs and now we’re down to 4.25%.

    We bought in late 2008 and haven’t looked back. It costs $2500 to rent a decent 3 bedroom in the morris county area… Now we’re paying less than that for our current house. …with $500 overpayments, we should have it payed off by the time the kids finish high-school…

    let ‘er rip

  179. Shore Guy says:

    Steve,

    Great idea to pay extra. We did so and paid off in 10 years. Instead of picking a random anount tp overpay, we looked at the next couple of payments after the one we were making with the payment coupon and payed the principal for as many as we could aford to pay. This allowed us to use the am schedule to easily track where we were in the process.

    Good luck paying off the house.

  180. Al Gore says:

    174.

    Poltroon,

    Come December we will check our predictions from January. Crazy Al is rarely wrong because I listen to the right people whom most have never heard of. Consider it a gift.

    Re: Mossberg.

    Clickity Clack. Slide the Rack Back.

  181. Shore Guy says:

    Now a little beer news for wwfb, and other lovers of the stuff:

    ttp://wap.cbsnews.com/site?t=xNkRODWK5CMG8Zc1kY-Nnw&sid=cbsnews

  182. Al Gore says:

    187.

    Shore,

    You might want to pick up 100k in some bullsh_t mortgage. These arent traditional times. Might I suggest a 30 footer with duel outboard 250 Mercs? With suffiecient fuel hat will get you to Bermuda in a couple days.

    Its a brave new world.

  183. Still_Renting says:

    #181 (Revelations), thanks for the info, I am sure I am going to have a lot of questions for all of you soon.
    In 2005 we walked away from the market due to the “piggy back mortgages” they kept trying to give us and for the fact that we could no longer afford the areas where we wanted to live. Started looking again 2009/2010 and walked away again because we were not buying an overpriced house just for an $8000.00 credit. Now, we are not sure what to do because the way the market is going , it is unfamiliar territory for us. However, thank you, to all of you for all the free advice you post on this blog.

  184. Al Gore says:

    191.

    Renting,

    Smart moves. I might suggest getting a passport for your dependents in case you need to get the f_ck out of this sh_thole. Its going to collapse and anyone willing to put their stash on a stake in this country in its current state is absolutely insane.

    If you plan to stay get a gun.

  185. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    NJC,

    Kinderhook Creek? The Beach House, PP, Sunday afternoons at 5:oo PM. Nothing better!

  186. Poltroon says:

    shore (184)-

    By this point, Stu should be completely hooked on narcoti<s.

  187. Caveman says:

    Hey all. Long Time Lurker. A little history… me and some family bought an investment property 2 years ago. We had been trying to sell almost 6 months after we got it (needed time to flip the POS). Nearly 2 years and gotta say, reading this site was probably the most depressing thing I could put myself through as we tried selling it. It was nice to have a good dose of reality.

    We didnt know what we were doing when we got into it, but reading the blog really got me up to speed on things, and enforced the fact that we had to get out it as soon as possible. It took 2 years for an offer, and it was 40 K under what we were expecting when we bought it, but it allowed us to break even. We didnt make any profit, but I consider not losing the money I put in as a fair enough exchange.

    I had to fight my partners in crime to drop it that low, but we sold it. I glad we got out when we did, because Id hate to be a seller in this climate.

    Really just wanted to say thank you (albeit kinda late). All of you really put a lot of interesting information up here. The wife calls it the “Dooms Day Blog”, but I try to not let that stop me.

    Had some other questions for Mr. Nom about his Nompound, but its late and the Lady isnt in the best of health (just sick) so Ill find my way back later.

  188. Poltroon says:

    ManU walked thru 90 minutes and gave away another two points on the road today. They looked like the Glazers popped by the dressing room to give a pre-game speech.

    Choked it up to a bunch of sad Mackems bastards who are barely quality themselves.

    In other news, NJ State Cup 1st round: SSC 6, PDA 0. 11 Graydons taste bitter defeat.

    Sometimes the world is good.

  189. D2b says:

    I have a Honda Pilot. 260,000 miles. I hope to keep it one more year. Solid except for the trans. Don’t tow anything with it without installing a transmission cooler.

  190. Confused In NJ says:

    Public Pensions

    Washington – In 1967, Dustin Hoffman’s character in “The Graduate” received a single word of advice for his future: “Plastics!” If Hollywood were to remake that movie today, the updated scene would offer two words of counsel: “Government job!”

    After all, a number of recent studies conclude that federal workers earn 20 to 30 percent more per hour than their private sector counterparts. And where local, state, and federal government workers really come out ahead isn’t just in pay; it’s in the benefits. Most private sector workers can only dream of getting the generous lifetime pension and health benefits typical of government service.

    These dream benefits are fast becoming a nightmare for taxpayers. Federal pension payouts roll into the $13 trillion national debt. Washington seems little concerned about that, because there’s no urgency to balance the budget.

    But most state and local governments are required to produce balanced budgets, and they find themselves increasingly hard-pressed to satisfy their pension obligations.

    Unfunded pension promisesFor the past few decades, many local and state governments evaded these requirements, using an array of accounting gimmicks and rosy economic predictions to routinely understate pension fund liabilities and overstate assets. All the while, cozy arrangements between politicians and public employee unions fueled pension benefit increases. According to a study by the Pew Center, state and local governments today face at least $1 trillion of unfunded pension promises.

    The problem is exacerbated by significant differences between the laws governing public pensions and those in the private sector.

    Private sector pensions are required by federal law (Employee Retirement Income Security Act) to conform to certain minimum pension funding rules. These rules require more accurate measurement of pension liabilities and assets and prevent companies with significantly underfunded pension plans from making new promises they can’t afford to keep. State and local government plans are not subject to these federal laws, and many failed to take it upon themselves to responsibly ensure that they would be able to make good on their promises.

    The Pew Center study concluded that, during the last decade, only about one-third of states consistently made adequate annual contributions to their pension funds. Moreover, it found that “many states shortchanged their pension plans in both good times and bad.”

    pagebreak

    Different rules for public plansAnother important distinction is that, unlike private pensions, state and local government pensions are typically 100 percent guaranteed. In California, for example, 12,000 public employees are guaranteed annual pensions exceeding $100,000 apiece. Private employer pensions, by contrast, do not have an automatic draw on government treasuries. Even the most generous ones are insured up to a benefit cap well below $100,000.

    Private pension plans must also follow strict federal “fiduciary prudence” requirements – with a fundamental obligation to invest pension assets to protect the workers’, rather than the corporation’s, interests. Regretfully, not all states follow that model. Instead of putting pensioners first, many state and local governments have directed pension fund assets to so-called “social investing” or to bolster local economic development efforts, with dubious results.

    Though states can’t withdraw the promises they have already made, they could reform their civil service systems going forward to make them more affordable for taxpayers. Predictably, such reforms are bitterly opposed by public employee unions who fight even modest efforts to reign in expenses.

    Steps toward fiscal responsibilityDespite this opposition, governors in some states are moving to address the problem. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) recently signed legislation taking some first steps to rein in New Jersey’s failing system, and has indicated that more reform will be coming. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has called attention to the fact that his state already spends more each year on retirement benefits than it does on higher education. California has unfunded retirement liabilities of more than $500 billion – a sum Schwarzenegger terms “unsustainable.”

    Local and state officials find themselves between a rock and a hard place: insatiable public employee unions and tapped-out taxpayers. The unions are a formidable political force, which is why public pensions have gotten out of hand in so many states. But at some point the bill comes due. That reckoning is fast-approaching and will be excruciating in many places.

    Government at all levels has kicked the fiscal can down the road for far too long. Where public pensions are concerned, many jurisdictions are running out of road. Taxpayers should demand that their states honestly assess public pension plans, accurately measure the assets and liabilities, and take steps to provide fair benefits to public employees that limit taxpayers’ liability.

    Elaine L. Chao, who served as US Secretary of Labor from 2001-2009, is a distinguished fellow at The Heritage Foundation.

  191. Poltroon says:

    Cave (195)-

    The real doomsday set are the stupid fcuks who buy the garbage our MSM and fascist gubmint keep spewing. They will be the first to be lopped off at the knees.

    Cold comfort that they won’t really know what hit them. I’m happy you got smart fast and did what was necessary to preserve your capital.

    “The wife calls it the “Dooms Day Blog”, but I try to not let that stop me.”

  192. Al Gore says:

    195.

    Congrats Caveman for taking the red pill. Its far worse that you probably imagine. Where most folks are talking about cutting losses other are talking about expatriation. Sucks to have a stake in a country headed down the sh_thole. Count me as one of them. Texas hedge for my kids future or bust.

  193. Still_Renting says:

    #192 – Al Gore, too funny, went to the post office this morning to get applications for passports for the kids. Where do I go for the gun, post office doesn’t give out those.

  194. Al Gore says:

    201.

    Renting,

    You dont want to know how I really feel. I cant post that on the internet. Surveillance can make you paranoid.

  195. nj escapee says:

    185, Fabius, Thanks, that’s good advice. We are taking a full box of produce every other week and a full order of fruit the next week. Seems like a good deal for organic produce at $45 for the full box and $20 for the fruit. I think we spend close to that now for non-organic in Publix.

  196. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    Knock down your pos and start planting.

  197. nj escapee says:

    BC, I already have mangoes, bananas and coconuts growing in my backyard.

  198. nj escapee says:

    BC, I already live in a banana republic

  199. NJCoast says:

    Kinderhook Creek? The Beach House, PP, Sunday afternoons at 5:oo PM. Nothing better!

    BC- around 1976-77? I was probably standing right next to you.

  200. Kim says:

    LOOK! You can have this lovely, looks-like-a-trailer home in Whippany for just under $400k!! http://www.cocciarealty.com/idx.cfm?action=dsp.info&listingSystem=gsmls&mlsnum=2806284

  201. TL;DR; but you have great pictures.

  202. Mike says:

    Kim Remember all reasonable offers must be presented so the trailer look alike may be had for under 200k I just love the look on the house guide’s face when you say this to them it’s priceless! Get a real job house guide, monkey’s can be trained to open lock boxes.

  203. Smathers says:

    Oh well, so much for any sense.

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/01/real_estate/manhattan_home_prices/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin

    For what it’s worth, if the house is in a train town and a good location, price it 15% below assessed valuation and you’ll get a bidding war. Saw it happen twice in last two weeks. Guess Grim was right that we’d seen the end of the big declines. Another 5%.

    Of course once the Republicans seize control of Congress it’ll be the end of the little rally on the market so there’s always that to hope for.

  204. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    NJC -[207],

    Yep. We always had a group of 20-30. Us bennies and the locals from Bay Head and PP.

  205. grim says:

    Bumping up!

    With all the shore talk, decided to post up the Philly Inquirer shore piece this morning.

  206. Hey newbie in njrereport.com community.
    great to become member of this community

    PS Mod: Pls remove this thread if it’s not the suitable place “http://njrereport.com/index.php/2010/10/01/weekend-open-discussion-176/” category:

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