Just when you thought we’d finally started dancing at the bottom

From Yahoo News:

New Jersey Foreclosures Expected to Rise 20 Percent in 2011

CBS’s New York affiliate reported that despite improvements in the economy, foreclosures in New Jersey are expected to increase 20 percent this year.

Kevin Wolf, who works for the administrative office of the courts, estimated that prior to the economic meltdown caused in part by subprime mortgages, there were approximately 24,000 to 25,000 foreclosures each year. That number nearly tripled to 65,000 foreclosure filings in 2009. That number is set to be even higher during 2011.

Although the economy has shown marked improvement since its darkest days, common economic wisdom is that jobs are the last area of the economy to recover. With high levels of unemployment come high levels of foreclosures.

Just a few days ago the Washington Post reported the Mortgage Bankers Association had announced mortgage delinquency rates, which measure how many home owners are behind on their mortgage payments, had dropped during the last quarter of 2010, to their lowest level since 2008 when the economy began its now legendary nosedive.

Despite the cautiously optimistic tone of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s report, the news for New Jersey continued to be bleak. Approximately half of all foreclosures occur in just five states, one of which is New Jersey. The others are Florida, California, Illinois and New York.

According to Wolf, though, there is some home for New Jersey home owners in trouble. Wolf said that, “In addition to the housing counselors, we are also funding attorneys to help home owners in the mediation process.” This could mean renegotiating mortgages, lowering interest rates, extending the timing of the loan, and, hopefully, keeping people in their homes.

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118 Responses to Just when you thought we’d finally started dancing at the bottom

  1. Essex says:

    The United States. What a concept.

  2. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Allstate sues Citi, Deutsche Bank over mortgages

    Allstate Corp sued Citigroup Inc and Deutsche Bank AG , accusing the banks of causing losses by hiding the risks on more than $385 million of mortgage securities it bought.

    Allstate, the largest publicly traded U.S. home and auto insurer, has filed similar lawsuits against two other lenders, Bank of America Corp and JPMorgan Chase & Co .

    It is so far seeking to recover losses on more than $1.8 billion of securities, including more than $757 million from JPMorgan and more than $700 million from Bank of America and its Countrywide unit.

    Allstate is among a growing number of companies, such as the brokerage Charles Schwab Corp , suing lenders they believe misled them about the safety of mortgage debt that ultimately went sour during the housing and credit crises.

    In complaints filed Friday with the New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan, Allstate said it bought more than $200 million of mortgage-backed securities from Citigroup and more than $185 million from Deutsche Bank, or from affiliates of the banks.

    The Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer said it had been led to believe it was buying “highly rated, safe securities,” mostly with “triple-A” ratings, backed by high-quality loans.

    In fact, it said, both defendants knew their loan pools were “toxic,” filled with loans to borrowers who were likely to, and often did, default. This resulted in “significant losses” for Allstate, the complaints said.

  3. grim says:

    Exactly like I said…

    From the Star Ledger:

    6 of the biggest mortgage lenders say N.J. high court overstepped its boundaries

    State Supreme Court Chief Justice Stuart Rabner made a splash in December when he ordered six of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders into court to show why their foreclosure operations shouldn’t be suspended over reports of widespread irregularities.

    State attorneys general around the country have increased pressure on lenders over the past year, but New Jersey is believed to be the first state whose Supreme Court has stepped into the fray so boldly.

    Too boldly, according to the banks’ court filings. With the court hearing looming next month, the banks say they’d already begun remedial action months before New Jersey’s court order and that suspending their operations would damage already shaky housing markets and lead to further deterioration of hard-hit neighborhoods.

    They also accuse the state of overstepping its boundaries on several levels. The order violates due process and equal protection clauses because it targets six lenders while omitting others and doesn’t arise from any specific complaints, according to the filings.

    The court is trying to “remedy what it perceives as a public policy issue,” attorneys for Ally Financial’s GMAC Mortgage unit wrote. “Such powers are the province of legislators and regulators.”

    A state Judiciary spokeswoman said Rabner would not comment on the cases.

  4. yo'me says:

    Updating-the-case-shiller-100-chart-forecast.Is 130 to 140 the bottom?Affordable fair price converted to historical trend inreases of home values?Or this author suggest 110 away from previous historical values,converting to todays dollar.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/updating-the-case-shiller-100-chart-forecast/

  5. yo'me says:

    Earlier this month, Microsoft borrowed $2.25 billion in unsecured debt. What in the world possesses a company with $40 billion in cash and short-term securities to go out and borrow money?

    Rock-bottom interest rates are one reason. But the bizarre, byzantine U.S. tax code seems to be another.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703803904576152492475125636.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_markets

  6. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Yo’me Except for the post WWII period the index reverts to trend. At that point went much higher and created a new trend line. I do not see the catalyst for that now, we all know it was our great period of manufacturing as the world was in ruins, cheap energy etc etc. We are now in debt up to our eye balls with no foreseeable catalyst to increase employment or revenue on the tax side except for increases. We need growth, more taxes just make the case for the lower trend. Why would we post a new higher trend line, just don’t see it. If someone knows something I don’t that would create this please share.

  7. grim says:

    How many of these folks are going to be keeping their NJ homes?

    From the WSJ:

    Retiring Boomers Find 401(k) Plans Fall Short

    The 401(k) generation is beginning to retire, and it isn’t a pretty sight.

    The retirement savings plans that many baby boomers thought would see them through old age are falling short in many cases.

    The median household headed by a person aged 60 to 62 with a 401(k) account has less than one-quarter of what is needed in that account to maintain its standard of living in retirement, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve and analyzed by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College for The Wall Street Journal. Even counting Social Security and any pensions or other savings, most 401(k) participants appear to have insufficient savings. Data from other sources also show big gaps between savings and what people need, and the financial crisis has made things worse.

    This analysis uses estimates of 401(k) balances from the end of 2010 and of salaries from 2009. It assumes people need 85% of their working income after they retire in order to maintain their standard of living, a common yardstick.

    Facing shortfalls, many people are postponing retirement, moving to cheaper housing, buying less-expensive food, cutting back on travel, taking bigger risks with their investments and making other sacrifices they never imagined.

    “Inevitably, we find that, for the average person, there is not enough there,” says financial adviser Paul Merritt of NTrust Wealth Management in Virginia Beach, Va., who has found himself advising many retirement-age people with too little savings. “The discussion turns out to be: What kind of part-time work do you want to do after you retire?”

  8. yo'me says:

    To better understand the tangle of legal and policy issues, a history lesson is in order. It’s doubtful a state has ever gone bankrupt in the strict legal sense of the word. Many, however, were insolvent and defaulted on debt. After the Civil War, a section of the 14th Amendment banned former Confederacy states from repaying debt to those who underwrote the war. In the 1930s, Arkansas defaulted on its debts.

    Perhaps the closest a state came to bankruptcy — that’s what it was called at the time — was Indiana in the 1840s. Indiana plowed millions of dollars it didn’t have into a rash of costly, corrupt, failed public-works projects: canals, turnpikes and railroads. The state couldn’t pay its debts and defaulted in 1841. London creditors cut the debt in half twice over a five-year period and seized uncompleted projects. Alas, all of them ended up as muddy sinkholes, save the Wabash and Erie Canal.

    http://www.thedeal.com/magazine/ID/038443/2011/the-world-wonders-can-states-go-bankrupt.php

  9. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Let us add Grim’s post 7 to my reasoning in 6. With the USA’s deficits at catastrophic levels, states in no better shape, local municipalities facing less state aid & declining revenue, who is going to care for these people. The medical alone will bankrupt us 2 times over. What was the figure 19 thousand a day turning 65 for ten years. Work till you drop the new norm. Yea it is a great time to buy!

  10. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot, oblivion post please.

  11. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Snowing buckets up here in Vernon on the slopes, winter wonder land scene from my wall of widows, a bit cold with all that glass. Turning on fireplace, that should fix it.

  12. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Everyone sleeping in on this snowy day off I gather.

  13. yo'me says:

    What effect will new immigrants,kids starting to go in their own that needs housing have on pricing?Dean Baker is suggesting another 10 to 15% drop in prices which brings the Shiller 100 graph to 135 to todays dollar.It may be higher considering most people believe inflation is much higher than what the Fed post.

  14. xroads says:

    mike are you going to hit the slopes?

  15. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Looks like China ruled the roost at the G-20 meeting.
    “The agony and near collapse of negotiations—as of noon on Saturday it appeared China’s objections had led most sides to throw up their hands—illustrates how difficult and unwieldy the G-20 …”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703407304576153890049850736.html

  16. xroads says:

    mike
    my question is are we trying to bankrupt ourselves and giveaway the dollars currency reserve status? nevermind the medical what will the cable bill be for taxpayers helping all the retirees who will become low income?

    “Let us add Grim’s post 7 to my reasoning in 6. With the USA’s deficits at catastrophic levels, states in no better shape, local municipalities facing less state aid & declining revenue, who is going to care for these people. The medical alone will bankrupt us 2 times over. “

  17. Mikeinwaiting says:

    xroads, don’t do that anymore. It is really a shame as I am situated between the north & south slopes. Lift just down the block for north or walk a 100 ft or so and ski down to south lift. Bad back, multiple discs shot, no skiing.

  18. yo'me says:

    I believe the strength of a currency should be based on how big its economy and the value of its trade.If it is running a huge trade deficit,it just simply mean the currency is over valued.It will be much cheaper to buy foreign goods with a strong currency.Hence,trade deficit will be larger.

  19. safe as houses says:

    Who needs savings when you have granite?

  20. xroads says:

    mike
    sorry to hear that. I was thinking of heading up to south today

  21. Mikeinwaiting says:

    X, yes I forgot cable is right!

    Yo me 10-15% in my neck of the woods for sure. I am seeing some juicy price reductions 499 to 389 and it ain’t going any ware for that either. We are to far from any place to command a price, no public transport, major highways etc. Taxes up hear use to be dirt cheap, no longer. Our schools cost a fortune, no rateable s to speak of except the ski slopes. I would imagine folks are counting on all those rich retirees to buy up here in the freezing cold with NJ taxes, tick tick tick.

  22. xroads says:

    yo’me
    budget deficits must count for something and as mike said fed, state and local all running deficits

  23. Mikeinwaiting says:

    x roads plenty of fresh powder conditions should be great, enjoy. Board or skies?

  24. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Bairen, of course.

  25. mike (11)-

    Had to go to Sussex Co. Friday on wine business. What a fcuking wasteland your area is. Stench and look of final doom everywhere…except for on the drives between towns, which were very nice. I went into one store in Branchville (!) that gave off such a Twilight Zone vibe, I just turned around and walked out.

    Next time I come up, will give you a heads-up. We can do whiskey and foreclosures.

  26. gary says:

    Approximately half of all foreclosures occur in just five states, one of which is New Jersey.

    Let me know which part of this statement you don’t understand.

  27. gary (26)-

    Believe it or not, it’s about to get much, much worse here.

  28. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Had a little chat with our mayor , we have a class together. She is not happy with her tax bill. Told her you have to put everything on the table police , DPW. We have no fire & private trash removal, very little services at all, that is about all she has to work with in any dollar amount. I get we need the police we have crime. So puzzled I ask where did you grow up she says Hudson County, me to and you think we have a crime problem. No, no not violent crime, so I just give her a look like so cut. You can pay for as much security as you want or can afford, I put forth,I get nothing. God forbid we touch the schools enrollment down big time, we could close a school & still have plenty of room, not happening they don’t want to she told me. Glad I sold & now rent.

  29. gary says:

    It’s sort of like a horror movie, isn’t it? Tax credits, HAMP, TARP, bailouts, takeovers, mergers and yet, nothing can stop the slow, steady march of destruction. You hide under the bed, run forever in the opposite direction but it still marches forward as the footsteps of doom never cease to be heard. Dramatic? Ask the 20% additonal foreclosure victims waiting for their turn to be humiliated. Ask the guy who painfully writes a check for $125,000 at the closing just to get away from that ball and chain he “bought” in 2006 because some house agent convinced him that prices never go down here.

  30. gary says:

    Supernova (26),

    Believe me, you don’t have to twist my arm.

  31. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot you have no idea how surreal it is, give me a heads up I will take you to a few gin mills with us having a full set of teeth each we will out number the teeth in the whole place collectively even if packed. I ain’t kidding.

  32. safe as houses says:

    Debt,

    Here’s a cape listed at 20% below it’s 2003 sales price.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17-Irving-Ave-Livingston-NJ-07039/38670685_zpid/

    Is this priced to trigger a bidding war?

  33. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot you hit Vernon?

  34. gary says:

    I sit here now, two weeks away from unemployment for the second time in three years, and I have these waves of panic that hit me despite the fact that for years, I saved, invested and made the next chess move very carefully. I can’t even began to imagine the scores of people that are crushed by debt, under-employed and facing eventual doom. I shudder to think if I had to face that scenario. I’d conduct a scorched earth policy before I’d have to deal with that reality.

  35. 30 year realtor says:

    #3 Grim – Still not clear why you feel this is a State of NJ manipulation of the foreclosure rate. The same properties will ultimately be foreclosed and go to sheriff sale, this is only a delay.

    Right now the order to show cause is not the source of the delays to sheriff sales. The delay is based upon changes to the NJ foreclosure rules adopted 12/20/10:

    The adoption of amendments to the Rules of Court and a Notice to the Bar that require plaintiffs’ counsel in all residential foreclosure actions to file certifications confirming that they have communicated with plaintiff’s employees who have (a) personally reviewed documents and (b) confirmed the accuracy of all court filings, and which remind all counsel of their obligations under the New Jersey Rules of Professional Conduct.

  36. mike (33)-

    Not on Friday, but maybe the next time. Is there a Liquor Factory outlet in Vernon?

  37. 30 year realtor says:

    # 32 Safe – Short sale listing. Short answer is yes.

  38. safe (32)-

    Don’t know Livingston that well, but it seems to be what you think.

    Bet it won’t go for that much more than ask, though.

  39. safe as houses says:

    30 yea and debt.

    Thanks. I checked the map. It it’s the first house off a busy street and borders what I think is a convenience store and a small office building. Still amazing to see a 2 handle in that area.

  40. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot 36 No, Wine Country, Shop-rite liq., 5 or 6 private places in area.

  41. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Safe 39 thought the same on that 2 handle.

  42. xroads says:

    Your describing Bill Cosby’s CHICKEN HEART!

    “It’s sort of like a horror movie, isn’t it? Tax credits, HAMP, TARP, bailouts, takeovers, mergers and yet, nothing can stop the slow, steady march of destruction. You hide under the bed, run forever in the opposite direction but it still marches forward as the footsteps of doom never cease to be heard.”

  43. Confused In NJ says:

    Interesting how Wall Street is ignoring the middle east going up in flames. Ben really has them under control with his treasury dollars. And they put Bernie away for Ponzi?

  44. Outofstater says:

    #7 “Since the housing and financial markets began to collapse, about 39% of all Americans have been foreclosed upon, unemployed, underwater on a mortgage or behind more than two months on a mortgage.” Whoa.

  45. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I’m going to go ahead and question the WSJ’s assumption about retirement income levels.

    I’m wondering what makes 85% of working income a common yardstick. “It assumes people need 85% of their working income after they retire in order to maintain their standard of living, a common yardstick.”

    Your retirement should include a home with no mortgage, preferably in a low tax state. That should knock 30 – 35% off the income needs right there. The whole idea is to pay-off the house, not HELOC the hell out of it in the years leading up to retirement.

    In retirement, you can reduce the need for Car and Clothing expenses. I’m sure there are other expenses that can be trimmed. OK, so maybe Health Care spending will go up, and maybe your Heating bill is higher if you’re sitting around the house all day. But $74K per year seems high. With no mortgage…..where are they spending $6K per month ??

  46. Confused In NJ says:

    Should be some good vacation prices in Acapulco now!

    12 taxi drivers, fares killed in Mexican resort
    – Sun Feb 20, 8:12 pm ET

    ACAPULCO, Mexico – A spate of attacks on taxis in the Mexican resort city of Acapulco has left 12 taxi drivers or passengers dead, police said Sunday, just hours before the Mexican Open tennis tournament is scheduled to start.

    Acapulco has been the scene of bloody drug cartel turf wars, and taxi drivers have often been targeted for extortion or recruited by the gangs to act as lookouts or transport drugs.

    The organizers of the largest tennis tournament in Latin America said in a statement Sunday that the Mexican government has assured them that appropriate security measures have been taken for the event that starts Monday.

    Police in Guerrero state, where Acapulco is located, said that four suspects had been detained in relation with some of the attacks. The suspects had guns, a grenade and a machete that police say may have been used to decapitate some of the victims.

    The attacks began Friday, when five taxi drivers were found dead in or near their vehicles.

    The slaughter continued Saturday, when a driver was found bound and shot to death near his taxi, and two others were found dead of bullet wounds inside their vehicles. One of the drivers had been beheaded.

    Gunmen opened fire on yet another taxi, killing the driver and three passengers.

    On Sunday, the violence came closer to the city’s tourist zone, where the tennis matches are held. Five cars were set afire and a man’s body was found hacked to pieces outside an apartment building.

    Dozens of cars have been set ablaze in Acapulco in recent days, for reasons that are not entirely clear

  47. Al Mossberg says:

    Things are really heating up over there in Africa. Listened to an interview where the man said 100 people were rushed to Tripoli Medical Center with gun shot wounds to the head. He said one person got hit with an antiaircraft missle. WTF? Supposedly some mercenaries were hired by Qaddafi to put down the unrest. The protestors claim they were brutal, possibly from Chad, and that women and children were jumping off bridges to their death to avoid them.

  48. Confused In NJ says:

    N.J. lobbyist dropping bid for unemployment benefits to boost $99K pension
    Published: Monday, February 21, 2011, 8:57 AM Updated: Monday, February 21, 2011, 8:58 AM
    By The Star-Ledger Continuous News Desk

    The now-retired former head of the New Jersey Association of Counties has decided she doesn’t need unemployment benefits to supplement the $99,000 per year public pension she receives, according to a report on NorthJersey.com.

    Celeste Carpiano said she plans to withdraw her request for unemployment because “it’s not necessary,” the report said. Although Carpiano was not a state worker, she was part of the government health and pension plan as result of a 1956 law that allowed some lobbyists to join because their work was deemed valuable to the public. She also received a Lexus for use as part of her job and cashed out more than $53,000 in unused sick and vacation time when she retired Dec. 31

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Woohoo, Oil and Shiny skyrocketing overseas this morning.

    At least there is a (literal) silver lining to the descent into oblivion.

  50. Essex says:

    Only five states do not allow collective bargaining for educators. Those states and their ranking on ACT/SAT scores: South Carolina, 50th; North Carolina, 49th; Georgia, 48th; Texas, 47th; Virginia, 44th. Wisconsin, with its collective bargaining for teachers, is 2nd.

  51. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [3] grim,

    Keeping NJRER readers ahead of the curve, as usual.

  52. yo'me says:

    Currency in circulation has increased by 5.2% per year over the last two years, a bit below the average for the last decade. If you took a very simple-minded monetarist view of inflation (inflation = money growth minus real output growth), and expected (as many observers do) better than 3% real GDP growth for the next two years, you’d conclude that recent money growth rates are consistent with extremely low rates of inflation.

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/18/how-the-fed-prints-money-without-any-ink/

  53. Al Mossberg says:

    “Libyan workers in the Gulf of Sirte oil field have gone on strike and oil production has completely stopped.”

    Better buy a bicycle in Italy.

  54. yo'me says:

    Canada remained the largest exporter of total petroleum in November, exporting 2,510 thousand barrels per day to the United States, which is an increase from last month (2,345 thousand barrels per day). The second largest exporter of total petroleum was Mexico with 1,363 thousand barrels per day.

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

  55. Marilyn says:

    perhaps some of the retires can make some money on the new tv show AARP SPRINGER!!

  56. Marilyn says:

    Here is an idea, take something like Xanadu, put particians (small cubicles) add beds, a huge prison like kitchen and have stadium retirement living. Fork over your SS#, pension and assets and you get a cubicle!!

  57. sas3 says:

    #45,
    I’m wondering what makes 85% of working income a common yardstick. “It assumes people need 85% of their working income after they retire in order to maintain their standard of living, a common yardstick.”

    The loudest doom-sayers are the ones who are trying to sell you retirement plans!

    From: “Get a Life: You Don’t Need a Million to Retire Well”
    http://www.amazon.com/Get-Life-Million-Retire-Fourth/dp/0873378377

  58. Juice Box says:

    re: #59 – Let them keep their Bennies and just lay off 12,000 or so young workers.

  59. Lone Ranger says:

    “It’s sort of like a horror movie, isn’t it? Tax credits, HAMP, TARP, bailouts, takeovers, mergers and yet, nothing can stop the slow, steady march of destruction.”

    Gary,

    You can manipulate, lie, freeze, delay, commit outright fraud, distort and pimp the currency. It’s simply pissing in the wind. No country has ever been successful in printing their way to prosperity. We will not be the first. How does creating gargantuan amounts of debt solve an historic debt problem?

    We are years away from digging out of this mess. Unfortunately, the next sh#tstorm will be a bigger problem; demographics. Every day, for the next 19 years, 10,000 baby boomers will turn 65. Real Estate “was” their # 1 asset. As they prepare to dump their crap boxes, one must pose the question; Sell? Sell to whom?

    On another front, in the, last 9 months;

    Wheat- Up 70%
    Corn- Up 100%
    Cotton- Up 150%
    Coffee- Up 100%
    Sugar- Up 100%

    No neeed to worry, there is no inflation.

  60. sas3 says:

    #59, #60:

    Wisconsin had a surplus, and Walker gave it away to special interests in order to put the state into deficit.

    Phony outrage over a manufactured problem.

  61. gary says:

    Lone Ranger,

    Can’t see nothin’ in front of me
    Can’t see nothin’ coming up behind
    I make my way through this darkness
    I can’t feel nothing but this chain that binds me
    Lost track of how far I’ve gone
    How far I’ve gone, how high I’ve climbed
    On my back’s a sixty pound stone
    On my shoulder a half mile line

  62. Al Mossberg says:

    Lone,

    6 days to delivery. Comex Alert.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBA-1ENblN4

    Gold $1,406.70 $1,407.70 $18.60
    Silver $33.98 $34.03 $1.65

  63. jamil says:

    61 lone: “No country has ever been successful in printing their way to prosperity. We will not be the first. ”

    for some people, the prosperity is not even a goal. it is the spending part that is the goal.

    The Cloward-Piven strategy specifically called unsustainable spending (including excessive welfare distributions) which would collapse the “capitalist” society and hence, in the Greek style violent demonstrations, would lead to the workers paradise.
    Piven openly called for greek style mass-violence after the news that greek thugs
    murdered several people in Athens. This guy (and strategy) is still the source of
    inspiration for various groups of people, including the occupants of White House.

  64. Lone Ranger says:

    Al,

    Tonto just reminded me; Siver futures up 15K per contract in the last 3 days, 40K per contract in the last 3 weeks. Who gives a sheet about some crap box in Hoboken?

  65. Lone Ranger says:

    Gary [63],

    Woke up this morning my house was cold
    Checked out the furnace she wasn’t burnin’
    Went out and hopped in my old Ford
    Hit the engine but she ain’t turnin’
    We’ve given each other some hard lessons lately
    But we ain’t learnin’
    We’re the same sad story that’s a fact
    One step up and two steps back

  66. gary says:

    Who gives a sheet about some crap box in Hoboken?

    All the little f*ck-tards who post on Kannekt.

  67. Al Mossberg says:

    66,

    Lone,

    Harvey Organ, “all lease rates above 1%. take a close look at the 30 day lease rate where it registers 1.2% and it is higher than the 60 and 6 months and 1 yr lease rate. What does this mean? Simple!!! there is no silver at any vault.
    When you have the lease rate at 1% and investment rate at .1% per annum, you are automatically in backwardation by a full .9% per annum. I smell trouble ahead.

    As far as i can see, there is no silver available anywhere.”

    Andrew Maguire is to release some more bombshell info on the manipulation this week or next.

  68. Confused In NJ says:

    “Across the United States there is a difference of $3 trillion between the amount of money that we have promised public employees and the amount that has been set aside,” said Joshua Rauh, who teaches finance at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.

    He’s tracked the pension crisis: “Politicians are often trying to make it look like we can have our cake and eat it, too. And that’s created a situation where we just push the problem down the road. And now we or our kids are going to have to pay for it.”

  69. Dan says:

    I think Libya’s impact is overrated. Saudi Arabia, different story. US ally, different story. It’s a bigger deal for Europe than us. I remember working at Hess and the stories of Qadaffi and Hess making deals based on each other’s word.

  70. I agree with all the comments that say that it will get worse. The problem hasn’t been solved as the Government and Fed intervene in an attempt to re-inflate the bubble. Without allowing the recession to take place, the problems aren’t allowed to be addressed and solved and we only delay the inevitable.

    Here, more manipulation, more bailout in order to prevent foreclosures.
    http://www.wtffinance.com/2011/02/the-mers-bailout-more-foreclosure-delays-and-increased-consumer-spending/

    And then there is a huge hidden inventory of future foreclosures as banks do opt to not foreclose which allows them to cook their financial reports. Yes, just like Enron did as both the financial institutions today and Enron in the 90s could opt to change their accounting away from mark to market and mark their assets to imaginary bubble pricing. That’s how this stock market rally started in Spring 2009 and we haven’t looked back ever since. But ultimately, those banks will foreclose, it’s just being delayed. US Housing won’t recover for another decade.

  71. Dan says:

    I acknowledge the scoreboard says otherwise but I’m wondering if a federal holiday is playing into the market

  72. Dan says:

    Qadaffi’s pilots are defecting fighters to Malta…..

    “Dude, Where’s my Planes????”

  73. sas says:

    “Who needs savings when you have granite?”

    lol
    thats funny.

    SAS

  74. Barbara says:

    In light of all this news today, Imma assign myself a NJRERE catch phrase.

    “WHERE MY HOUSE AT?”

  75. Anon E. Moose says:

    Cat,

    I read that EDNY BK case you posted about last week. I would not cite it as authority against MERS. The court decided the case within 2 pages, for the bank and against the debtor (state court FC and sale already conducted – the BK court must take that at face value). Kind of an odd outcome if the transfer via MERS was not valid. Therefore the (in)validity of the MERS transfer did not influence the outcome of the case.

    The judge then used the opportunity and following 35 pages to expound on the MERS issue. All that discussion can be waived away by any subsequent court as ‘dicta’ – ramblings by the court that were not necessary to decide the outcome of the case before it – therefore not binding authority.

    I think this BK judge was looking for a safe outlet to express his opinion on the MERS cases that have been before him. He could do it there, because he had already ruled in favor of the bank. All his negative comment on MERS did not prejudice the outcome, hence the bank could not (and would be stupid to) appeal the decision that went their way. Its still in the public record howerever, kind of like a law review article that will get read by some, any may influence decisions at some point – just not now.

  76. grim says:

    Left,

    Sent you an email but wasn’t sure if your comment attached email was correct.

  77. Barbara says:

    New listing in Planet ‘Clair….nice house, but looky look at those taxes. Even reassessed they would be too high at 16k. I will be surprised if this sells anywhere near ask.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3043486040-411-Highland-Ave-Montclair-NJ-07043

  78. chicagofinance says:

    Was just at Cabela’s in Hambrug PA about 2PM. Had to walk through the firearm checkpoint. You have to check you guns like a coat at a restaurant now…they give you a chit with a number…have some chick with a basket etc…

  79. sas3 says:

    Sale of state-owned facilities:

    “the department may sell any state-owned heating, cooling, and power plant or may contract with a private entity for the operation of any such plant, with or without solicitation of bids, for any amount that the department determines to be in the best interest of the state. … no approval or certification of the public service commission is necessary for a public utility to purchase, or contract for the operation of, such a plant, and any such purchase is considered to be in the public interest…”

    Guess where is this happening? Hint: a regime that is overwhelmingly supported by religious fundamentalists that hate the rights of women.

  80. gary says:

    Barbara,

    It’s a beautiful house, I ride my bike in that area in the summer but geezus… the taxes are suicide. Oh my G0d!

  81. NJGator says:

    Barbara 80 -Highland Ave is pretty desirable. I’d put it at 50/50 for moving.

  82. sx (50)-

    Do you really think we’re that dumb?

  83. sx (50)-

    WI- largely white and homogeneous student pool. The kind that does well on standardized tests.

    That couldn’t explain the high ACT/SAT scores, could it?

  84. Orion says:

    (76) LOL “Where my house at?” –Is your PhD from Jeersey??!
    Correct grammer: Where my house be at?

  85. jamil (65)-

    Damn. Two days of really good posts, then you go all Glenn Beck on us again.

  86. Not that I don’t think Cloward-Piven is a strategy that is in active play worldwide; I just don’t believe the current resident of the White House is sitting there every night reviewing his action plans against it.

    My take is that Bojangles is the latest in a long line of marginally bright stuffed suits who are completely beholden to the monied interests who helped them attain the political offices they hold. Beyond appeasing those monied interests to keep the pipeline open, not much else of real substance seems to cross the politicians’ minds.

  87. al (69)-

    Do you think Maguire is the guy behind the fuzzy bears who do the funny silver videos on Xtranormal?

    “Andrew Maguire is to release some more bombshell info on the manipulation this week or next.”

  88. sas3 says:

    Clot, what’s your take on Libya? Gaddafi bombing his own f’ng capital! This is even more insane than whatever jamil can whip up.

  89. chi (81)-

    That’s heartwarming. Having a gun valet is the epitome of excellent service.

  90. sastry (91)-

    Nothing a nut like Qaddafi does surprises me. Ultimately, he showed himself as a weakling to his people when he knuckled under to us on his nuke program. In a place like Libya, a strongman showing any type of weakness pretty much sets the clock ticking on regime change. That he hires hitmen to kill women and kids then bombs his own capital only underscores the fact that he’s a feeble-minded psychopath.

  91. Essex says:

    Do I think you are that dumb. Yes. Yes, I do.

  92. Kettle1 says:

    Yome

    yo’me says:
    February 20, 2011 at 2:08 pm

    To the guru’s on this blog;Veto,Ket et al
    I see alot of bloggers are starting to get in the market looking at Schillers history of home values converted to todays dollar, is 130 to 140 the fair price converted from previous inreases of home values?Or this author suggest 110 away from previous increases.

    Fair is a relative term. Fair is what the market is currently pricing at regardless of whether or not you personally agree with existing market manipulations such as government price supports.
    If you want to know what the “Free Market” value of housing is/should be, it is well below current prices. Historically the ratio of (median home price)/(median household income) is probably one of the better indicators of the position of the market. In those terms the northeast is still way overvalued and some places such as parts of florida are in a generally stable price range at this point.
    Also consider that the fundamental dynamics behind the supply and demand in housing is changing. You have the baby boomers moving into the later stage of their life now and they hold the majority of RE. The will eventually have to sell. This suggests that supply pressure is probably going to become greater then the demand side. I think a conservative estimate would be us dropping to 110 on the chart linked.
    One last thing to consider is that if you are trying to inflation adjust the chart, how are you doing it? The most realistic method at the moment is probably to use the shadow stats data ( inflation data calculated using the same method before they made major changes to the calculation in the 80’s). Current CPI definitely understates CPI.

  93. jamil says:

    89, “Not that I don’t think Cloward-Piven is a strategy that is in active play worldwide; I just don’t believe the current resident of the White House is sitting there every night reviewing his action plans against it.”

    well, I didn’t say bambi reviews that every night. It is simply part of his political DNA, just like, say pro-growth policies are part of conservative political DNA. He has no doubt studied Cloward-Piven strategy in detail, along with Saul Alinsky’s Rule for Radicals, and whatever Karl M. material is part of the mandatory reading for any self-respected JournoList/community organiser radical.

  94. Libtard says:

    “JournoList/community organiser radical.”

    You have the originality of a Xerox machine.

  95. Barbara says:

    87. Orion
    Is your sense of humor from Bob Jones University?

    It was part of the funny. I hate explaining the funny.

  96. Confused In NJ says:

    I wonder if Bin Ladin or Iran is the instigator behind the series of mid east revolts?

  97. Barbara says:

    87.
    Orion
    apologies, I misread your correction, which was incorrect, which I read too fast and as correct, which means I got MY PhD….yadda…

  98. Al Mossberg says:

    Debt,

    “Do you think Maguire is the guy behind the fuzzy bears who do the funny silver videos on Xtranormal?”

    I doubt it. He is out in public anyway. Hell they tried to run him over in London last March. Brave guy.

  99. sx (94)-

    I am not dumb enough to believe for one moment that any amount of money- either money spent or money removed from the educational machine- influences learning much in one way or another. I think Marva Collins and the many similar efforts that have followed her model have decisively proved that the only real currency when it comes to education is desire…the desire to teach and the desire to learn.

    Even if you want to look at education from a money/business point of view, much like business enterprises, the changes that can most affect education are the ones that cost little to no money at all.

  100. al (101)-

    The way things are going, next time around that car isn’t going to miss Maguire.

  101. sas3 says:

    Clot #102,
    Pumping money into schools may not improve them rapidly, but removing funds will have a really bad impact.

    the changes that can most affect education are the ones that cost little to no money at all.
    Looks like the general respect towards teachers has been going down quite a bit and the war on science has been intensifying. It is probably not good for the kids.

  102. stan says:

    Just watched The Cartel for the first time.. NJ is fukced. Starve the beast

  103. A.West says:

    102,
    Correct, education is about desire and technique for most of what elementary and high school needs to teach. Which is exactly why the government and teachers unions are so adamant about maintaining their monopoly. If the private sector was allowed to create a Wal-Mart or Google model of education, using economies of scale and best practices to drive up efficiency and outcomes, it would blast the current education establishment all to hell and pretty soon the kids would start learning to think for themselves. The genuinely talented teachers could become mini-celbrities and start making big money. Failing schools and teachers would get wiped out and replaced.

  104. Barbara says:

    Ah, Central Jersey…..where heavy traffic and mediocrity await your personal touches!

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3032745074-30-Burnet-Walk-Robbinsville-NJ-08691

  105. Barbara says:

    Re: Summit – what do they call that area? “Skyline” or something? I kind of like the weirdness up there. Isn’t that where the old Jungle Habitat was located? Went there in the early 70s. Weird NJ covered its demise nicely.

  106. grim says:

    Jungle Habitat! Check out youtube for the old commercials/super 8 videos. When someone recently told me the story of that place I thought they were pulling my leg.

  107. Outofstater says:

    #104 Neither are teachers who lie about being sick and then picket in Madison with signs comparing their governor to Hitler. What message does that send to the children?
    And how many years has NJ had the Abbott districts? 30? Where’s Costello when we need him?

  108. Barbara says:

    grim,
    I took my kids to Wild West City over the summer. Awesome kitsch and the audio stories over the loudspeakers are original 1970s recordings and barely audible. Kids loved the place anyway. I think the local tribe owns it? Good stuff on YouTube for Jungle habitat, thanks for the suggestion.

  109. Barbara says:

    Check it out,
    a 1960s ranch is effing a roadside Victorian. Shameless!

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1005272063-301-S-Orange-Ave-South-Orange-NJ-07079

  110. Al Mossberg says:

    You want to see whats going on in Libya? Check out these horrific photos.

    WARNING. This is extremely graphic. You have been warned.

    http://yfrog.com/h3ztivxj

  111. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Debt Supernova,

    I think I have your next blog name lined up. I am watching “Armageddon” and Steve Buscemi’s character has a line, “it’s time to embrace the horror.”

    So I think your next namechange should be to Rockhound.

  112. sas3 says:

    A. West,

    If the private sector was allowed to create a Wal-Mart or Google model of education, using economies of scale and best practices to drive up efficiency and outcomes…

    I assume you are not joking about Wal-Mart model of education…

    Such an education system is widespread in India. Statistically speaking, the people who can afford get good education, people that don’t get p!ss poor education. Teachers are paid peanuts, and private tuition sessions are where the teachers make money. Everyone teaches towards some entrance exams. The whole aim of such schooling is to ace the exams, and nothing more. Kids don’t learn about anything except how to solve exam problems. Fear and uncertainty are primary driving forces. Independent thinking rarely flourishes under such settings.

    Talking about how bad the public education system is… What do you think about sending one’s kids to Pingry and the like? There are plenty of such private schools nearby, and 30k/yr/child is clearly worth it if the alternative is that the kids grow up like sheep.

  113. Bail says:

    %BLOGTITLE% I admired your article.Good Topic.

  114. Ken says:

    Came to your webblog through Stumbleupon. You know I will be subscribing to your feed.

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