Will reduced loan limits kill the high-end?

From HousingWire:

Lower loan limits deadline may not boost housing prices

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is expected to reduce conforming loan limits on mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this October. The hopeful anticipation is that demand driven by buyers looking to beat the deadline this summer will also drive up prices, thereby reducing recent dips in home values.

But the rush may have less of an effect than thought, according to some analysts, and likely won’t last.

The limits were originally raised in February 2008 as part of the economic stimulus, allowing the government-sponsored enterprises to guarantee more loans and more of the market at a time when private capital had all but vanished.

Anthony Sanders, a professor of real estate finance at George Mason University said the scramble to get ahead of the conforming loan limit cuts – which would drive up costs for loans higher than the new limits – could push prices back up.

“But that will be a short-lived blip, much like the Administration’s tax credit,” Sanders said in a blog post this week.

Alex Villacorta, the senior statistician at data analytics firm Clear Capital, which called the double-dip two months before S&P/Case-Shiller, took a look a closer look at the data and found that lowering the conforming loan limits may not have such a drastic boost on prices.

Villacorta pointed to Marin, Calif. specifically. There, the conforming loan limit will like be cut to $625,500 from $729,750, which equates to a 14% drop. Since February 2008, when the new loan limits were set, Marin home prices for this upper-tier pricing segment have already dropped 25% as of the end of the first quarter.

“I think prices will rise for homes between the old and new limits,” Villacorta said. “In that range it certainly could happen. But, really, to get a better gauge is to see how many buyers are really in this segment. In that range, it’s a very small percentage.”

For these higher-end markets such as Marin, San Francisco and New York, prices might actually fall off come October as the buyer pool in these areas drop off without the government guarantee on higher-valued loans. Still, Villacorta said like the current volatility, there will be many variables to blame.

“You would be hard pressed to base another drop in prices on any decrease in the buyer pool or the conforming loan limits alone,” Villacorta said. “There’s already a significant amount of factors causing the drop.”

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128 Responses to Will reduced loan limits kill the high-end?

  1. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Lack of Mobility Hurts Job Recovery

    The hallmark of the American labor market, and consequently the wider economy, has long been the mobility of our work force.

    From “going West” to “teleworking,” we go where the jobs are.

    Unfortunately the uniquely disastrous state of the current housing market is changing all that.

    One in four homeowners with a mortgage are now “underwater” on that mortgage; their home is worth less than their debt.

    “Mobility deteriorates when you’re under water because you can’t get out from under the house without bringing money to the table,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic. “So, it reduces mobility, which has an impact on the labor markets and the efficiency of labor markets in terms of people finding new jobs and people moving to where the jobs are located.”

    Some borrowers, in good markets, can afford to rent out their homes and move to the new location. If the rent covers the mortgage payment, they can afford it, and many are doing just that. The trouble is, the bulk of those looking for new jobs are unemployed and likely behind on their mortgage payments already. For them, renting is probably not an option. Their last resort would be a short sale, where they negotiate with the bank to let them sell for less than the value of the loan, with the bank taking the hit.

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. Mike says:

    Will reduced loan limits kill the high-end? Not if the sellers compromise

  4. gary says:

    For these higher-end markets such as Marin, San Francisco and New York, prices might actually fall off come October as the buyer pool in these areas drop off without the government guarantee on higher-valued loans.

    Any questions?

  5. High end dead, middle range dead, low end dead.

    All writhing with maggots and reeking of rot and the stench of death.

    No one will be spared.

  6. Pack up your pickup truck and hit the road like the Joad family.

    It’s all turning to shit.

  7. gary says:

    Investor sentiment was jolted by news from the ADP payrolls firm that private employers only added 38,000 jobs during the month. That was far lower than the 175,000 expected in the markets, reinforcing fears that the U.S. economic recovery is quickly running out of steam and that Friday’s official government jobs data may come in lower than anticipated.

    Yes… We… Can…

  8. 30 Year Realtor says:

    #6 Hobo – Where exactly would the Joad’s be heading in their search for the promised land?

  9. Trichet calls for creation of even more sophisticated doomsday machine (an EU Finance Ministry). Euro rallies.

    Smoke ’em while you got ’em, folks. It’s gonna get hot up in here.

  10. 30 Year (8)-

    Chile.

    Or Jupiter.

  11. Anyone who doesn’t think that the Fed is blatantly manipulating all kinds of markets (especially equities) in order to set up QE3 is as dumb as a jets12/frank test tube baby.

  12. gary says:

    I think we need some new bureaucratic agencies to oversee all the other failed bureaucratic agencies.

  13. 30 Year Realtor says:

    A guy in my office was talking about all the negative economic news and complained that it was all media manipulation. I explained that I only felt it was media manipulation when the economic news was positive.

  14. Juice Box says:

    Conforming loan limits, the FHA document I posted yesterday says 3-8 percent NY Metro would be over the new limits based upon 2010 mortgage vuloume. NJ was 3%

  15. WTF is a sugar maple split? Does this mean the listing agent gets a ho to pour syrup all over you as an inducement to buy?

  16. Shore Guy says:

    Did anyone hear about some weird arboreal laws in NC where a property owner can be fined $100 per branch if they improperly trim a bush or tree?

  17. gary says:

    Hobo,

    Sugar maple splits only exist in Bergen County. It’s a byproduct of being a member of the prestigious class.

  18. Shore Guy says:

    “sugar maple split”

    Is that where one slips while climbing a tree and one’s legs straddle a branch?

  19. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Doesn’t this just make homes more affordable for the high end buyers, who don’t use mortgages, at the expense of cramming down high end borrowers into mid tier overpriced crapshacks?

  20. gary says:

    Shore,

    improperly trim a bush…

    What are the rules of engagement for this faux paux?

  21. Shore Guy says:

    With respect to the loan limits, the really-high-end areas will be just fine; the truely-rich folks who are buying in wealthy towns don’t need conforming mortgages. Who it will hurt is professionalls and small business folks who are buying more house than they should be at that moment in their economic life. If they instead follow John’s path, and the one we, and others here, have followed, they will buy less expensive homes that do not require the higher mortgage amount.

    It sounds like one more nail in the coffin of McMansion Land.

  22. Shore Guy says:

    Here it is:

    CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A Charlotte church has been fined $4,000 for excessively trimming its crape myrtles and running afoul of the city’s three decades old tree ordinance.

    The Charlotte Observer reports the city’s tree law prohibits removing or excessively trimming trees on commercial property or streets.

    snip

    http://www.wral.com/news/state/story/9658974/

  23. Shore Guy says:

    And the creeps on Wall Street laugh
    ‘Cause they understand
    That they control the congress
    With an invisible hand

    And the cash, it flows to them
    ‘Cause the’re too big to fail
    And the people out on Main Street
    Can go to hell

    Copyright 2011 poster herein known as Shore Guy ASCAP

  24. gary says:

    $930,000 for this f*cking gem. Geezus! Why not just swig a half a fifth of Four Roses and then put a glock nine to your head?

    http://www.trulia.com/property/photos/3047542218-68-Everett-St-Closter-NJ-07624#item-5

  25. gary says:

    B1tch!

  26. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    That house screams Christopher Moltisanti and Adriana La Cerva.

  27. Outofstater says:

    #23 That seems a bit excessive. I figured the fine was for trying to trim trees with a shotgun when everyone knows that the classy folks use a rifle.

  28. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Grim,

    Cut your grass yet? Do we get to come by and watch? I’ll bring my lawn chair and lemonade. The joys of Summer.

  29. Lone Ranger says:

    “Since February 2008, when the new loan limits were set, Marin home prices for this upper-tier pricing segment have already dropped 25% as of the end of the first quarter.”

    Can’t be. Pret told us that regions tied to the hip of top cities, where the highly educated roam, are immune.

  30. Shore Guy says:

    Decent film of the tornado in Springfield, MA:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43248653/ns/weather/

  31. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    It’s a given. Figure they’ll drag it out all summer.

  32. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Who runs your country? Like it or not you are all bank employees:

    From Huffington Post:

    Largest Banks Likely Profited By Borrowing From Federal Reserve, Lending To Federal Government

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/26/fed-lending-helped-wall-street_n_853884.html

    Let’s get out there and work hard today to pay our banking class masters. Get cracking you’re burning daylight!

  33. Shore Guy says:

    Awsome. The lack of dirt swirling allows one to see the tornadic circulation very well:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43248653/ns/weather/

  34. Shore Guy says:

    Out,

    Det cord was all the rage for awhile.

  35. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “Awsome. The lack of dirt swirling allows one to see the tornadic circulation very well”

    Is that link about the US credit rating?

  36. Shore Guy says:

    Tornado, whirlpool, black hole, whatever. In any event, things get sucked in and destroyed.

  37. Shore Guy says:

    Hold down the fort. I need to go feed the tax beast.

  38. tbiggs says:

    Grim’s post –

    “to guarantee more loans and more of the market at a time when private capital had all but vanished.”

    Private capital was all fictional bits in the computer before that… only in 2008 did that fiction start to be questioned.

    #32 Shore – I lived in Wilbraham MA for a few years when I was a kid. Tornadoes were something we never thought about. (Though apparently there was a serious tornado some time in the 1950s.)

    http://www.thebostonchannel.com/r/28102922/detail.html

  39. Al Mossberg says:

    39,

    “Hold down the fort. I need to go feed the tax beast.”

    Estimated tax time again. Im going to get wrecked for working hard. Time to buy more solar panels. Tangible assets with a 30% Federal tax credit.

  40. 3b says:

    #13 That guy in your office needs to get a clue, and you are right. The media relies on advertising form companies trying to sell their products and services. If the media was really being truthful, they would tell Americans ho bad things really are (although I think more and more Americans are finally waking up to that fact) however, you don’t bite the hand that feeds you

  41. 3b says:

    #14 And ugly Glen Rock taxes too.

  42. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    I thought the high end was already screwed with the exception of the magical land upon hackensack

  43. chicagofinance says:

    gary says:
    June 2, 2011 at 7:35 am
    Shore, improperly trim a bush… What are the rules of engagement for this faux paux?

    This reminds me of an interesting factoid…just read the other day that the CPI for Brazil includes bikini waxing….no joke…

  44. 3b says:

    #31 There is a place that lies serenely and flows gently down to the banks of the historic Hackensack River, whereby that comment would not be applicable.

  45. Ben Bernanke says:

    Hobo With a Shotgun says:
    June 2, 2011 at 7:08 am
    Anyone who doesn’t think that the Fed is blatantly manipulating all kinds of markets (especially equities) in order to set up QE3 is as dumb as a jets12/frank test tube baby.

    Duh. Winning.

  46. whipped says:

    OK guys,,,here’s a story from the mid-high end

    wife and I are looking for a house for over a year and currently renting in the same area
    So we come across an FSBO that we really love but touring through I’m feeling like this is way over my budget..than the seller gives me the asking price and I’m blown away ..asking about 500K less than I thought…still about 100K more than I want to pay
    So wife and I deliberate and give her an offer for about 200 K below asking which is about 12% below asking figuring we’ll meet in the middle
    Seller states “well I have two other interested parties. Last year a broker told me I could get about 700K more, this year about 200K more than my asking…but I don’t want to deal with brokers…so that is my asking and I’m not going down”
    So should I offer him 100k (which is my limit) more or just wait and see ? Please note he is not hurting for money having lived in a house for 30 years.

  47. Juice Box says:

    48 # – him or her? Which is it? FSBO old lady retiree? Offer them a trade, a night with JJ to meet you in the middle.

  48. whipped (48)-

    Tell him you will come back when his festering corpse is covered in maggots.

  49. NJGator says:

    Montclair Real Estate Market in the TV Spotlight
    Nationally, home prices have dropped 5 percent in the last year to reach their lowest level since 2002.

    Roberta Baldwin at the New Keller Williams NJ Metro Group in Montclair, whose listings include 30 Harvard Street, said that figures for the second quarter of this year aren’t in yet.

    “But I would suggest that the trend will continue,” she said. “As such, anyone who priced a house in the summer or fall of last year and brought it on in the first quarter to reflect last year’s price assessment, as so many sellers have done here, means a disconnect between buyer and seller reality.

    “If swift reductions haven’t been made, the prognosis, in my opinion, is that the value of the home is now at least 8% less than it would have been last September,” Baldwin said. “That would mean that a home priced at $800,000 based on a six- or nine-month-old price assessment, might be theoretically marketable at only around $725,000, or less.

    “That is why the sell-through is so weak; buyers do not see current value, so they are offering 5 or 10 or 15% less than asking and try to build possibly further price drops into those offers to the chagrin of homeowners; many sellers, meanwhile, are standing fast, rejecting offers, just saying no to the statistics, hoping to find that one buyer who believes a particular house is worth more,” she said.

    Baldwin said that those sellers who have to move now face a most unpleasant scenario that becomes more disagreeable every week a house lingers on the market.

    “Nonetheless, some houses, well-priced, well-located, and well-equipped, do sell,” she said. “A small number sell quickly.”

    Baldwin appeared on ABC’s “Nightline” earlier this week in a segment about a troubled U.S. housing market that has seen a 5 percent drop in prices over the past year.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2011/06/02/will-reduced-loan-limits-kill-the-high-end/#comments

  50. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Whipped tell him he can take one of the offers now or yours in 3 months which will be 50K less. and will drop 10K a month thereafter.

    Or you can do it the sensible way, show him the number of listings in said town, the number of completed sales over the last year, YOY price declines. State that your offer is fair and in line with the current state ofthe market. Pull at the heart strings by saying you and your wife look forward to rainsing a family in the wonderfully maintained home for the next thirty years. blah blah blah. that is if you really like the house.

  51. gary says:

    Baldwin said that those sellers who have to move now face a most unpleasant scenario that becomes more disagreeable every week a house lingers on the market.

    Any questions?

  52. prtraders2000 says:

    “Please note he is not hurting for money having lived in a house for 30 years.”

    What bearing does this have? Sounds like you should meet his ask. You said yourself that you were blown away by how low the price was. I never hear that on this board. Sometimes a good value does come along.

    Good luck.

  53. If it’s that good a value, it has multiple offers on it.

    Whatever you do, do not use comps or any kind of rational process to convince the seller of the value of his house…especially a FSBO. One of the biggest reasons they don’t use agents is to insulate themselves with their own delusions.

  54. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Whipped do not go out of budget, end of story. At 500k less than you thought it would be it may be a deal, but that is irrelevant. Buy less than you can afford play it smart. Leave your heart at home it is about numbers unless you want to screw yourself. Think Shore or JJ live smaller than you can.

  55. gary says:

    One of the biggest reasons they don’t use agents is to insulate themselves with their own delusions.

    My house is listed 100K over similar comps because my house is special! ;)

  56. whipped says:

    Painhrtz – Salmon of Doubt and prtraders- you guys make alot of sense–gonna go with on of those options-
    Hobo- I think this seller is rational – its the vulture brokers that push delusions on sellers

  57. whipped says:

    Mikeinwaiting says:
    June 2, 2011 at 9:56 am
    “Whipped do not go out of budget, end of story. At 500k less than you thought it would be it may be a deal, but that is irrelevant. Buy less than you can afford play it smart. Leave your heart at home it is about numbers unless you want to screw yourself. Think Shore or JJ live smaller than you can.”

    wholeheartedly agree

  58. A.West says:

    The guy will sell it to the highest bidder. The question is whether the house is worth it to you as the highest bidder. If it’s a tie at list px, the house goes to the most cooperative, most likely to close bidder.
    Very strange that you saw the house before you saw the asking price. If the ask is surprisingly low, they shouldn’t be keeping it a secret, but using it to drum up traffic.

  59. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Morning folks had to drop son in Newark earlier, ate at a little place for breakfast in Iron Bound sec.,watched old Portuguese ladies hose their side walks at 730am while I was eating, great food coffee made 1 cup at a time, cheap. PS better know some Spanish or Italian no one spoke English, “Atlas Horas” 266 Ferry.

  60. Libtard in the City says:

    Yup…Keep it within budget Whipped. Otherwise, you might end up losing your entire DP and renting your next place from some sap who fortunately doesn’t do a credit check on his tenants.

    When I was searching with Gator, one house came on the market on Ridgewood Avenue that needed mega updating, but was just an incredible value based on price. Probably could have been flipped even in this environment. Unfortunately, it was out of our price range and not really what we wanted. One thousand square feet per person is already too much. This one would have given us closer to 1333.

  61. whipped (58)-

    Keep believing that. Meanwhile, all I’ve spent the last four years doing is trying to break through sellers’ denial and delusion. And, I’m far from the only agent out there bashing his head against the wall. I can tell 30 Year is not some yes-man tour guide, as well.

    I don’t take unsellable listings and I don’t work with buyers who want next year’s price today. This is why I now work two jobs and am looking for a third. There is a price to be paid for telling people the truth in this business. I only hope my reward comes somewhere down the line, when my reputation is hopefully intact, there are far fewer agents in the game as there are now and the value of a little integrity might be considered a positive by those looking to buy or sell.

    Of course, I could take every possible listing that comes my way- at whatever fantasy ask the seller demands- and ferry buyers all over central NJ…but all I would have at the end of the day would be a broken-down car, no income and lots of angry clients.

    “Hobo- I think this seller is rational – its the vulture brokers that push delusions on sellers.”

  62. Value doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Any house for sale in NJ that represents value gets multiple offers. Immediately. That’s how starved for properly-priced inventory the market has become.

    If you’ve done your homework- and still think this place is so grossly underpriced- step up, offer the ask and get it under contract.

    My grandpa always told me: don’t steal in slow motion.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    So, Goldman has gotten a package from the Manhattan DA, huh? Must be a dinner invite.

  64. Happy Renter says:

    U.S. Buyers Too Fat for Small Cars

    http://news.drive.com.au/drive/motor-news/report-us-buyers-too-fat-for-small-cars-20110531-1fe7f.html

    OK, not really news to anyone who has left the house in the past 10 years. But to go along with the recent depressing economic news, maybe the silver lining of a Second Great Depression is that after a few years (decades?) of austerity the U.S. obesity rate will decline …

  65. Al Mossberg says:

    Im thinking about planting an extra row of tomato plants. This sh_t is getting ugly.

  66. calico1 says:

    I enjoyed reading news, opinions and exchanges in this website. I’ve been renting for the past 14 years. I pre-qual for $250K but I have no plans of going close to that range. What do you think of this for a first home? This is a manufactured home. The pictures make everything wide and spacious, but IRL, not. Thanks!

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/40-Fawn-Run_Manalapan_NJ_07726_M62204-49504

  67. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Al 67 Victory gardens!

  68. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Shore65 It’s an8 x10 of Wieners wiener.

  69. whipped says:

    Hobo (64)
    – that makes alot of sense

  70. A.West says:

    Renter, 66
    Don’t bet on it. Being poor doesn’t make you thin, especially in the US. Grain farmers will continue to be subsidized and the government scientists will tell people that cheap starches and beans are healthy. Prison/school food for all poor, (lots of bread and pasta, with potatoes standing in as vegetables, HFCS embedded in everything) with obesity combined with malnutrition, stage 2 diabetes, and flatulance exploding.
    Anyone remember the Schoolhouse Rock song of the 70s telling us that “beans and rice is nice”?

  71. Mikeinwaiting says:

    calico1 Do not know area so can’t say much, but 1 piece of info not on listing TAXES,the all important number.

  72. Juice Box says:

    re # 65 – Shore – waiting for Sen. Chucky to show up and get all indignant against the DA perhaps call it a shakedown.

  73. Happy Renter says:

    [72] True – being “poor” in the U.S. now (i.e. not having the latest model iCrap or struggling to get by with basic cable) doesn’t make you thin. But a dose of Depression-style poor will do the trick.

    The obese masses can at least cling to the hope of achieving their 15 minutes of fame by becoming America’s Biggest Loser.

  74. Happy Renter says:

    [67] Can you work in some green shoots among those tomato plants?

    Thankee.

  75. calico1 says:

    Mike (#73)
    The property history is showing these numbers. I just don’t know how reliable those numbers are:
    2010 $3,755
    2009 $4210
    2008 $4068

  76. JJ says:

    Americans don’t like being jammed in cars. Who likes sitting with three people in a backseat of a camry even if all three weigh under 150 pounds. Let alone a min car

  77. Mikeinwaiting says:

    calico1 Strange they rarely if ever go down, go to town hall & get the hard numbers. Even so lowest or highest number not bad.

  78. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JJ 78 it would depend on the gender of the three people…………………..

  79. chicagofinance says:

    Here is an example of someone who thinks they are being reasonable, but is completely off-base…..we are doomed….

    Some History on Insurance in Florida

    As a property owner in Florida, I agree we need insurance solvency but your editorial “Republican Hurricane Season” (May 21) is incomplete.

    In the 1990s, then-state Insurance Commissioner Bill Nelson and the legislature served up a mess to Florida property owners when they granted big insurance companies like Allstate, State Farm and others the authority to spin off special Florida companies that confined their risk pool only to Florida. This allowed the companies to assess risk and increase rates based on a consolidated geographic area rather than cast a wider net for risk. In 2002, Citizens Property Insurance Corp., a state government-owned insurer of last resort, was created on behalf of those unable to secure insurance.

    Next, the state legislature encouraged new insurance companies, many of which were underfunded, to enter the Florida market. These companies selected individual policies from Citizens and provided the insured with an “offer” to write that policy.

    While these companies had initial rates similar to Citizens, renewal rates often jumped 30% or more. Hundreds of these companies have been declared insolvent by the state.

    Many insurance customers are left with the choice of Citizens or nothing and with the prospect of increasing costs to homeowners and businesses with no end in sight. Others are simply unable to afford insurance. This is a catastrophe in the making for our state.

    Ayn Marie Samuelson
    Satellite Beach, Fla.

  80. 3b says:

    #78 How about a BMW X3??

  81. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Chi should not everyone share my risk if I decide to live in hurricane alley.

  82. Dan says:

    Tough call, calico. How much work needs to be done to get that c/o? Can you do it? Do you see yourself living there at least 7 years and if not, are you willing to take a loss on it after the extra money you put in.

    As tempting as it is to buy a house this cheap, something you need to consider are all the extra fees that cost the same for something larger such as legal fees, mortgage fees, county fees, town fees, appraisals, house inpsection to the point where you’re better off paying for more house than this

  83. Libtard in the City says:

    Hey,

    My homeowners went up 31% due to the floods last Spring. When I called up the insurance company, who I never had a single claim with for the 6 years I had owned the home, they said the entire county was given federal relief (didn’t have to pay fed taxes until August I think) so I was responsible for paying for all of the flooding claims. I told them I would be canceling their policy. A week later I did and signed on with Metlife for less than I originally paid for their policy prior to their increase.

  84. Libtard in the City says:

    Dan is right Calico. I’m not encouraged by the large fan I saw in one of the photos, when the place supposedly has new central air.

  85. Wendy says:

    Most of the million dollar homes are paid in cash in short hills.

  86. Double Down says:

    “I pre-qual for $250K but I have no plans of going close to that range.”

    In NJ, keep renting.

  87. Double Down says:

    “Most of the million dollar homes are paid in cash in short hills.”

    Absolutely false.

  88. Al Mossberg says:

    68.

    Calico,

    Bulldoze the home or better yet use it as target practice. Once done. Clear the debris and rework the soil. Invest in some irrigation. Then plant the property with tomato plants from head to toe.

  89. Al Mossberg says:

    90,

    Addendum,

    Save some of the wood for a road side vegetable stand.

  90. calico1 says:

    Okay, I got the point. I must be insane to see any value in that property.

  91. nj escapee says:

    chi fi re: 81 The writer is on the money. Lobbyists in Tallahassee have been gaming the market for years. They have been using BS models to pump up the revenue for years. Nothing new. In addion, use of re-insurance (all offshore companies/entities) has made rates explode. I choose higher deductibles to keep my insurance costs under control. Every additional one percent deductible = $300 / year cost saving with Citizens.

  92. calico1 says:

    Thanks for all inputs. Very much appreciated.

  93. Al Mossberg says:

    92,

    Calico,

    There is always value in property but here are the things you need to consider.

    1. Its located in NJ. This means you are vulnerable to massive property tax increases on short notice. Our state is an insolvent mess with 53 billion in underfunded pensions and a teachers union with politcal grip on the political front preventing reform.

    2. 120k for a house to live in + property wouldnt seem such a bad idea except for the fact that you will be paying 4k in property taxes that will only increase.

    3. If you are now a renter you hold a trump card which is mobility. When the SHTF, and it will, you can pick and go wherever you desire.

    Dont be a bagholder.

  94. Everything is teeming with maggots and rotting from the inside out.

  95. Dumbass REO listing agent would rather keep fielding offers from unqualified buyers and having deals fall through than entertain a qualified offer from my approved buyer.

    Of course, my buyer is making an offer based on today’s value of this black mold, vermin-infested shitbox. The buyers who can’t qualify for loans come in at the ask, hoping that the lender will give them time to obtain the mortgages they will never, ever get.

    My life is like the scene in Midnight Express where the prisoners walk in a circle like zombies.

  96. A guy like me could be up in a belltower on a beautiful day like today.

    Instead, the unquenchable rage inside me grows yet larger.

  97. Al Mossberg says:

    98.

    I suggest the state of NJ give you eminent domain rates and a bulldozer. Maybe they could set you up with one of those old M60 battle tanks with a dozer attachment.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vESIVemfG8

    That should solve the problem.

  98. NJGuest says:

    98, That’s the story of my home shopping in RE. I follow 3b, but your comment struck a nerve. I offered $309K on a $355K asking list and these people think I am low balling. Is 13% off asking a low ball? I think not. Plus I can actually get a mortgage for the darn house.
    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1114742&dayssince=&countysearch=false

    Sellers seem to hold out for that marginally qualified person who can just muster getting a mortgage because they know they’ll pay asking list.

  99. Guest, it’s all cash at the closing to the seller. Only problem is, some sellers don’t get that the deal can’t ever close at their asking price. Even if the buyer’s credit barely qualifies him for financing in some of these deals, the inevitable shortfall on the bank’s appraisal blows it all to smithereens.

  100. 3b says:

    01 NJ Guest: That house I believe has some ugly property taxes; north of 10K I believe. Also FYI, if it matters to you, east of Kinderkamack Rd is considered less desirable, as you have to navigate Kinderkamack Rd to get to the local schools.

    Also lots of new listings coming on in RE all the time, so if you are not in a rush, bide your time, if you really are set to buy in RE, because prices will continue to fall even if delusional sellers have to be dragged kicking and screaming to that reality. As well you need to follow closely the continuing funding battle with Oradell, and familiarize yourself with the town.

  101. Essex says:

    99. Sounds like it’s time to take up smoking.

  102. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Guest it is missing the magic unicorn and bucolic views of the hackensack. I would move on the seller is obviously irrational.

  103. NJ Toast says:

    Double Down says:
    June 2, 2011 at 1:51 pm
    “Most of the million dollar homes are paid in cash in short hills.”

    Absolutely false.

    The real question is how do they get a new lease the German Iron if they can’t get a HELOC to come up with the $ or for that matter, go shopping at the SH Mall.

  104. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Lowest taxes in Bergen County on this house. Until somebody buys it, that is.

    gary says:
    June 2, 2011 at 7:15 am
    $300,000 overpriced. Possibly more:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3049492316–Glen-Rock-NJ-07452

  105. Confused In NJ says:

    WASHINGTON (AP) — A credit rating agency is warning the U.S. government that it could lose its sterling credit rating if Congress and the Obama administration don’t reach an agreement to raise the nation’s borrowing limit.

    Moody’s Investors Service says if the parties fail to make progress soon, it would put the U.S. rating under review for a possible downgrade. That’s because there’s a “very small but rising risk” that the government will default on its debts.

    Moody’s warned the government could also face a downgrade if it fails to come up with a plan to control the country’s rising debt.

    The U.S. government hit its $14.3 trillion borrowing limit on May 16. The debt limit is the amount the government can borrow to help finance its operations.

  106. Happy Renter says:

    [103] “prices will continue to fall even if delusional sellers have to be dragged kicking and screaming to that reality”

    Jets12 told me that in The Little Community That Could! (TM) prices defy gravity and continue to rise along with the level of pollutants in the Hackensack River.

    Hackensack River, wider than a mile,
    I’m crossing you on my 90 minute commute some day.
    Oh, serf maker, you net-worth breaker,
    wherever your taxes are going I’m going to pay.

    Two drifters off to see the world,
    There’s such a lot of inventory to see.
    We’re after the same bagholder’s end–
    a Hobo-with-a-shotgun waiting ’round the bend,
    my huckleberry friend,
    Hackensack River and me.

  107. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    #107 – That’s the nicest neighborhood in Glen Rock, my wife grew up just a couple blocks away from that house. My inlaws sold their house for $565K…in 1992 to the next owners who are still there (new owners moved from another house in GR, it’s Brigadoony there too).

  108. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    #107 – Hey, it’s already $30K cheaper: http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1114325&dayssince=&countysearch=false

    This house has been a church parsonage since 1962. $0 taxes. It’ll go straight up to $18K when somebody buys it.

  109. chicagofinance says:

    Hobo With a Shotgun
    Movie Review

    A vigilante parody to root against: ‘Hobo With a Shotgun’ has lots of violence but little wit
    May 27, 2011|By Ty Burr, Globe Staff

    HOBO WITH A SHOTGUN Directed by: Jason Eisener

    Written by: Eisener, John Davies, and Rob Cotterill

    Starring: Rutger Hauer, Brian Downey, Molly Dunsworth

    At: Kendall Square

    Running time: 86 minutes

    Unrated (as R: graphic violence, nudity, language)

    The faux-grindhouse amuse bouche that calls itself “Hobo With a Shotgun’’ illustrates a modern B-movie principle: If you set out to parody junk, you will more than likely end up with junk. Garbage in, garbage out, as the net-heads used to say. A merrily blood-soaked homage to the vigilante action movies of the 1970s and early 1980s, “Hobo’’ is a good idea in theory that’s brought down by the banality of its practice.

    The movie does get a half-star for that efficient title — verily, there is a hobo and he has a shotgun — and one star for raising the career of Rutger Hauer back into public view. The one-time “Blade Runner’’ villain and star of “The Hitcher’’ has made an admirable 25 films in the past five years, but have you seen “Dead Tone,’’ “Goal II: Living the Dream,’’ or “The 5th Execution’’? Me neither.

    Unshaven and white-haired, Hauer plays the Hobo — no other name offered or needed — who staggers into the post-apocalyptic hamlet of Scum City and quickly realizes the need for violent retribution. The populace is cowering under the reign of local kingpin Drake (Brian Downey, foaming at the mouth) and his sadistic sons Slick (Gregory Smith) and Ivan (Nick Bateman). With their Ray-Bans and popped prep collars, the sons come off as evil versions of Tom Cruise during his “Risky Business’’ period. This may not be coincidental.

    Molly Dunsworth plays the tough-on-the-outside/mush-on-the-inside teen hooker who takes the Hobo under her damaged wing before he grabs his firearm and starts settling scores with robbers, pedophile Santas, and evil reality-video producers. The fake blood and intestines spew with aplomb, and while you’ll probably flinch when one character loses a few fingers to a power mower in glorious medium close-up, the gore is so winkingly fraudulent that it’s hard to get offended.

  110. chicagofinance says:
  111. chicagofinance says:

    Closest showings…..
    Ritz Theatres Ritz At The Bourse 82.4 mi.
    400 Ranstead Street, Philadelphia, PA 19106 | (215) 925-7900

    MTR & HWAS NJRER GTG
    This could be huge!

  112. Shore Guy says:

    Cue the sound of the law school tuition bubble bursting:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/03/business/03reverse.html

  113. Shore Guy says:

    snip

    Outsourcing firms, the companies that in recent years added to the financial woes of the American legal profession by sending work to low-cost countries like India, are now creating new jobs for lawyers in the United States.

    The American salaries for outsourced work, typically in the $50,000 to $80,000 range, may look meager compared with the six figures that new associates might still hope to draw at a big firm. But outsourcing jobs typically pay better than temp work — and certainly better than no work at all.

    And at that salary range, American lawyers start to look a bit more competitive with their offshore counterparts — and more attractive to potential American clients that might not be comfortable sending legal work overseas.

    snip

  114. Shore Guy says:

    Given that a JD is a graduate degree, so one has both undergraduate and graduate tuition, the spread between an outsourced law job at $50m, working 12 months a year, and, say, a teacher earning $35m, working 10 months, good benefits, and employers with taxing authority to fund retirement plans, evaporates. Once the teacher starts moving up and/or across the salary guide, the teacher way outpaces the outsource-firm attorney.

    Why would most people engage in the paper chase, given this trend?

  115. If calico comes back, tell him/her to stay far away from those homes on Fawns Run.

    They are the worst sort of modular crap. These homes depend on optical illusion to make them seem larger than they really are. You’ll have to duck your head to get in the front door. This particular home has been in REO twice in the past few years.

    Manalapan’s taxes are going nowhere but up. The county just agreed to “preserve” the Mayor’s farm for $1.15M

  116. Pop goes the bubble in legal education.

    Best return of all is in being able to squeeze off a Lee Harvey-quality shot at 110 yards.

    Then, you can go all over the world, kill Muslims and get treated like a rock star.

  117. calico1 says:

    Fiddy, thanks for the info. Yeah, I was wondering about the interior. I saw the exterior in person when I drove by the area last week.

    Again, thanks to everyone else who gave their feedback and advice.

  118. Somebody please shoot this crazy, corrupt bitch.

    “Moody’s reputation for leaking inside information is well-known: after all it was one of its own employees, Deep “Throat” Shah, who leaked to infamous hedge fund Galleon information of upcoming LBOs. But at least that wasn’t information originating from Moody’s: the world’s most incompetent rating agency was merely a conduit. Yet we were little surprised to learn that the firm that facilitated the housing bubble, and where such apparatchiks as Mark Zandi reside, informed none other than House Minority leader Nancy Pelosi that it likely wouldn’t downgrade the US debt as long as several weeks ago. Per Dow Jones: “Moody’s earlier Thursday took the unusual step of warning that it might place the U.S. government’s debt rating under review for a possible downgrade. The agency said the review would come if Congress doesn’t make progress on raising the country’s debt ceiling. Pelosi said she was alerted to the Moody’s report just after House Democrats met with President Barack Obama at the White House. She said a few weeks ago she was in New York and the head of Moody’s told her that it “would probably not downgrade, so this is interesting news today,” she said. “But the fact is we cannot default” on the debt.” We are relieved to learn that the head of Moody’s, a firm which only last summer received a Wells Notice from the SEC, in an investigation which was promptly scuttled by powerful and rich people, takes its responsibility of protecting material, non-public information with such passion. Yet it is the topic of another leak of non-public information, and not Moody’s criminal incompetence, that bothers us. Because as we noted last week, it is now proven scientifically that members of both Congress and Senate (especially democrats), tend to trade a little too much on inside information. And even if not Ms. Pelosi, who precisely will guarantee us that Ms Pelosi’s husband, multi-millionaire Paul Pelosi who just happens to be the owner of Financial Leasing Services, Inc., a San Francisco, California-based real estate and venture capital investment and consulting firm, did not procure the Moody’s inside information courtesy of wagging tongues at Moody’s and in his wife’s mouth, and then proceed to trade accordingly. Alas, with the regulator in charge being the same one who let the whole Moody’s investigation get deadended in record time, we are not hopeful of getting any information or justice. Ever.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/moodys-leaked-again-told-nancy-pelosi-will-probably-not-downgrade-us-weeks-ago-did-her-multi

  119. chicagofinance says:

    The stench of death covers Chile…no one will be spared….

    Would-be Chilean terrorist accidentally blows self up
    SANTIAGO, Chile — A suspected anarchist in Chile has been seriously injured when a bomb he allegedly carried exploded outside a bank.

    Police say 22-year-old Luciano Pitronello Schuffeneger lost his eyesight and may lose both his arms. He’s also suffering serious burns and is hospitalized in a drug-induced coma.

    Prosecutor Hector Barros is pursuing a terrorism case against 15 anarchists charged in similar bombings.

    Witnesses say the man’s accomplice fled on a motorcycle after the bomb exploded outside a Banco Santander office early Wednesday.

    This is the first injury in Chile’s many early-morning bomb attacks. There has been just one one death, that of a man whose backpack exploded.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FG4GWcMMtlE

  120. cobbler says:

    shore [118]
    Large part of the people starting law school do it to escape the totally dead-end career opportunities of most liberal arts BA’s (pay in the 20s-30s, and rather stupefying office job – or barista’s career). Teaching in public school for most is not an option (almost impossible to get an English, History, etc. teaching job in a “good” district w/o connections no matter how good you are; and can’t manage unruly/outright dangerous students in a “bad” one); private schools pay way less.

  121. Anyone who thinks the NBA stinks should be watching the game right now.

  122. Nowitzki scores the last 9 for Dallas (and the game winner), who were down 15 with 6 minutes left.

    Winning shot was a drive left and rolling layup off his injured left hand.

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  124. party bags says:

    People who are greatly affected by these are the ones who are in small business. Of course rich people won’t even care about this. Because they can afford the price they need to pay.

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