From the Record:
Home-price index at lowest point since 2006 bust
Home values have slid into a “double dip,” dropping more than 3 percent in March from a year earlier, the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday.
“Home prices continue on their downward spiral, with no relief in sight,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s.
Values in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, declined 3.4 percent in March from a year earlier. Nationally, home prices were down 3.6 percent.
Prices in the region have returned to the levels of January 2004, while national prices are back to the levels of mid-2002. Standard & Poor’s declared a double dip because values have dropped below the recent low point, hit in April 2009.
Prices were shored up in 2009 and 2010 by an $8,000 federal tax credit for home buyers. But after that credit expired last year, demand for homes plummeted and prices began trending down again. Hence, the double dip.
…
Case-Shiller does not break out sale prices by county, but according to the N.J. Multiple Listing Service, Bergen County single-family home prices rose 2.5 percent, to a median $410,000, from March 2010 to March 2011. According to the Garden State Multiple Listing Service, Passaic County single-family prices declined 18 percent to a median $242,040.These numbers reflect the mix of properties sold during the month, so if a large number of lower-priced homes are sold, for example, that will tend to skew values lower. Case-Shiller is considered a more reliable measure of home values because it tracks the value of the same properties over time.
Several North Jersey real estate agents said they were not surprised to hear of the lower Case-Shiller numbers.
“Since the end of the tax credit, we anticipated a slowdown and we clearly saw it,” said Linda Port, a Re/Max agent in Paramus.
“I have seen prices come down a bit,” said Maryanne Elsaesser, a Coldwell Banker agent in Wyckoff. “Sellers seem to be holding firm on what they will accept, and buyers are holding firm on the max they will pay.”
Lisa Molnar, an appraiser with Skyline Appraisals in Ringwood, said values are holding steady among the most sought-after properties — such as lakefront homes or homes in Ridgewood, with its commuter train station and well-regarded school system.
But prices are sliding, she said, in Warren and Sussex counties, as well as in Paterson and Passaic, where most of the sales are foreclosures.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Renting increases in New Jersey as housing jitters persist
Ed Van Hee plans to become a homeowner again, but the 33-year-old will be a renter until the housing market stabilizes.
“With today’s real estate market, you’re bound to lose now,” said Van Hee, who signed a lease Tuesday on an apartment at the Hamilton Greene apartment and condominium complex off the Black Horse Pike in Mays Landing. “I’m going to wait it out.”
Van Hee represents a shift in the housing landscape of New Jersey and the nation: A larger percentage of the population is renting now compared with 2004.
Van Hee, who owned a home in Runnemede, Camden County, for seven years before going through a divorce, said he expects the housing recovery to take five years.
U.S. Census Bureau statistics analyzed by The Press reveal the number of renter-occupied homes has grown in New Jersey since 2004. Meanwhile, the number of owner-occupied homes has dropped from 68 percent in 2004, the height of the housing market, to 66 percent in 2009.
“The American dream has changed a little bit because of the recession,” said Michael Scully, who owns the 416-unit Hamilton Greene, a development of one-, two- and three-bedroom homes that has a community pool, gym and lounge. Rents range from $1,005 to $1,365 per month.
Scully has seen increasing interest in rental units as well as changes in how people view homeownership. This includes segments of Generation Y, those in their 20s who may now be moving out of their parents’ house and into their own rentals.
“They’re not taught to think they have to own, own, own,” Scully said.
From CNBC:
‘Double-Dip’ in Housing Prices Even Worse Than Expected
U.S. single-family home prices dropped in March, dipping below their 2009 low, as the housing market remained bogged down by inventory and weak demand, a closely watched survey said Tuesday.
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.2 percent in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists’ expectations.
The price index was below the low seen in April 2009 during the financial crisis. The glut of houses for sale, foreclosures, tight credit and weak demand have kept the housing market on the ropes even as other areas of the economy start to recover.
The 20-city composite index was at 138.16, falling below the 2009 low of 139.26.
“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, said in a statement. “Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”
Good Morning New Jersey
Close to a deal to buy a house….been looking for over a year
Appreciate all the commentary and advice on the blog
Re: Mortgage – do you think its wise to go with a big bank that I’m affiliated with (CHase) or one of these independent operators that seem to have minimally lower rates that you would find on online computer searches? Local bank?
My bank’s GFE is huge…but it is a huge mortgage too..
4. I wouldn’t finance a bicycle through Chase.
whipped (4)-
Bob Farrell, First Valley Funding (908) 565-1640. Not only has he done several good mortgage deals for folks who post here…Dodd-Frank has essentially capped the profit potential of his entire industry segment. He couldn’t screw you even if he wanted to- and he’s an honest operator who wouldn’t do that, anyway.
Stench of death is everywhere.
No one will be spared.
From the WSJ:
Housing Imperils Recovery
Home prices have sunk to 2002 levels, effectively wiping out almost a decade’s worth of home equity across the U.S. and imperiling the fragile economic recovery as Americans confront the falling value of their biggest investment.
A closely watched home-price index released Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller National Index, showed that prices nationwide fell 4.2% in the first quarter after declining 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The index had seen increases in 2009 and early 2010.
“Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee. The report signals “a double dip in home prices across much of the nation,” he said.
That doesn’t bode well for the economy, which historically has depended on home buying and other consumer spending to rebound. Falling prices hurt economic growth in a number of ways. Not only do homebuyers curb spending when their homes are losing value, but continued price erosion keeps families stuck in homes they can’t sell because they are worth less than what they owe.
Another 5% decline in prices will increase the share of underwater homeowners with mortgages to 28%, up from 23% at the end of 2010, according to CoreLogic Inc. A 10% drop will leave more than one-third of all U.S. borrowers underwater.
From the NYT:
Bottom May Be Near for Slide in Housing
How low can the market go?
or real estate, some economists say, an end to the seemingly endless decline in housing values might be in sight.
Not immediately. At the moment, prices are still dropping. In 20 large cities, prices fell 0.8 percent in March from the previous month, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index released Tuesday. That pushed the closely watched index below its level of two years ago to a new post-bubble low, and put it 33.1 percent under its July 2006 peak.
Few analysts expect housing prices to rebound anytime soon. But quite a few are predicting that the market is close to the moment when things will stop getting worse, which will be a major improvement all by itself.
“By far the bulk of the downturn of housing prices is beyond us,” said Paul Dales of Capital Economics. He expects the market to slip 5 percent further, slightly more than he was expecting a few months ago.
“There are some amazingly favorable signs. Housing is the most undervalued it’s been in 35 years,” Mr. Dales said. “At some point, it’s going to do very well.”
Peter Muoio, senior principal of Maximus Advisors, says he thinks the market has already bottomed, although he expects it to bounce around in a narrow range for a few years rather than recovering. And James F. Smith, chief economist for the investment firm Parsec Financial and a rare housing bull, is predicting a 25 percent climb from here by mid-decade.
“There’s a lot of pent-up demand for housing and someday it will be unleashed,” Mr. Smith said, adding: “Your guess is as good as mine when it will come.”
4. Whipped: “it depends”. If it’s an easy to do deal and you’re getting a standard mortgage product (20/80 30yr fix) view the mortgage product as a commodity and go with the best deal from a competent entity. If it’s a deal with potential hang ups or snags and you’re for example getting an FHA, I would go with a local person (boutique mortgage broker or larger entity).
Generally you can get a better deal on a property if you can guarantee closing in 45 days in the offer, and generally an allowance is made to give you 60 days once the agreement comes out of attorney review. However you gotta perform and hiccups happen. For example a property might be out of compliance for an FHA at inspection/appraisal whereas it might not with a conventional 20/80, they have different standards and bars.
In my experience the highly regarded local mortgage broker is hands on and versed on all the ‘speedy fixes’ to get the property into FHA compliance – in the timeline required to close. A strong local mortgage broker can save you a lot of money and actually keep a hard to do deal together. Visible significant cracks in foundation, deck construction of 30+ years ago, homes with chimneys or exteriors that need extensive repointing, etc. It’s not hard for a property to fall out of FHA compliance at inspection, depending on how large of a bug the FHA appraiser has up their ass that particular day.
“There are some amazingly favorable signs. Housing is the most undervalued it’s been in 35 years,” Mr. Dales said. “At some point, it’s going to do very well.”
Bull Puckey!
Looks like MERS and the banksters have co-opted the Oregon legislature.
“A bid by major financial institutions to retroactively waive Oregon recording requirements blocking foreclosure sales appears in jeopardy but will get at least one more day, a legislative leader says.
The Oregon House Judiciary Committee today postponed until Wednesday a hearing on Senate Bill 519 which largely deals with publicly subsidized housing in foreclosure. But an amendment to that bill introduced last week would relieve lenders of ensuring a property’s ownership history is properly recorded in public records before foreclosing outside a courtroom.
Committee co-chair Jeff Barker, D-Aloha, said after today’s hearing that the committee supports the bill, which protects affordable housing financing in units under foreclosure. A “dash-six” amendment to the bill, allowing public agencies to buy subsidized housing in foreclosure, also garners support, he said.
But Barker said he did not find support to pass a “dash-seven” amendment put forth Thursday at the financial industry’s request. That would rid the recording requirement that has hung up foreclosures across the nation involving the Mortgage Electronic Registration System, or MERS. Federal judges in Oregon have blocked such foreclosures, saying MERS failed to record them properly.
“From the people I’ve talked to, there’s consensus to move the dash six amendments but not the dash sevens,” Barker said.
Co-chair Wayne Krieger, R-Gold Beach, could not immediately be reached for comment.
Thursday’s amendment has drawn opposition from the National Association of Independent Title Agents and 90 percent of more than 900 readers voting over the weekend on an OregonLive.com poll.
Representatives of the Oregon Financial Services Association, the Northwest Credit Union Association and the Oregon Land Title Association support the bill, saying the fix is needed to remove a cloud on many foreclosure sales and lift the housing market. The American Land Title Association, Bank of America and other large banks own shares in MERS.
An affordable housing advocate today accused the financial industry holding the affordable housing bill hostage to fix MERS’s legal problems.
“They did an end-run around a centuries-old land recording system guaranteeing that we know who owns the underlying IOU on our property,” said Angela Martin, executive director of Economic Fairness Oregon. “They did an end-around around that and now it’s backfiring and they want a do over.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mers-action-alert-oregon-fraudclosure-fix-postponed-effort-appears-jeopardy
Jets12 is Lawrence Yun.
Prices in the region have returned to the levels of January 2004, while national prices are back to the levels of mid-2002. Standard & Poor’s declared a double dip because values have dropped below the recent low point, hit in April 2009.
Any questions?
Gary, I lost a listing a couple days ago because I wouldn’t re-list a no-AC, 3 BR crapshack for the same asking price that the owner failed to sell at for 21 months…and the 21 months ended LAST AUGUST.
Naturally, she was able to immediately find a schlock agent to list the dump at her price.
3b, 30, this is what we were talking about this weekend…
“Lisa Molnar, an appraiser with Skyline Appraisals in Ringwood, said values are holding steady among the most sought-after properties —such as lakefront homes or homes in Ridgewood, with its commuter train station and well-regarded school system. But prices are sliding, she said, in Warren and Sussex counties, as well as in Paterson and Passaic, where most of the sales are foreclosures.”
“Jets12 is Lawrence Yun.”
Hobo, he claims prices in river edge is up 26% this year. Maybe frank but he is not larry yun.
Wow. Looks like grims post at 8 is huge wsj cover story…
My uncle paid 20K for the lot and to build his house on it in 1948 …..I live in this house pretty much the same with a few upgrades ,but sq is still 3100. my taxes are 23,170 ..how much longer before 1 year taxes are more than the home total cost in this friggin state ?
Stench of Death, indeed….it smells worse than Casey Anthony’s backseat !!
thanks all for the info
i head valley national is a good local bank
Another 5% decline in prices will increase the share of underwater homeowners with mortgages to 28%, up from 23% at the end of 2010, according to CoreLogic Inc. A 10% drop will leave more than one-third of all U.S. borrowers underwater.
Read the last sentence carefully. Sometime in 2012, that will be a headline statement.
My buddy who is always right is selling his huge loft in Soho soon. He is one of those guys who somehow it always works out for. My favorite, was he quit his job to go to another company for a 50K raise around 18 months before peak of job bubble, six months later he quit to go to a start up for a 50K raise, that did not work out so he got fired and he went to another company for a 50K raise and there he sits. Likewise, he graduated college in 1985 and went to IBM where he got the tech bug and he rented in in an insanely cheap rent controlled unit from from 1986 to 2000 and did not have a nickle in bank as he put 50% of his salary in tech stocks, which he sold 100% of in Feb 2000 to buy his Condo for cash. His condo it up like 300%.
He reminds me of back in the day of people who mirrored hot traders trades. Sometimes the next best thing to being smart is to copy someone who is smart.
He is going REO shipping in 2013 after he rents for one to two years.
9. Grim
“There’s a lot of pent-up demand for housing and someday it will be unleashed,” Mr. Smith said, adding: “Your guess is as good as mine when it will come.”
—
Yeah, someday. Like maybe in 50 years.
re 9
“There are some amazingly favorable signs. Housing is the most undervalued it’s been in 35 years,” Mr. Dales said. “At some point, it’s going to do very well.”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. I want a hit of what this guy is smoking.
Jim 24,
I think he meant to say PANT up demand. And that sounds awe fully familiar to comments about the fabled gold coast.
Off to Philly this morning to speak to the local congresscritter’s office critters. Was warned that they only want to hear what they can use, and don’t care to be educated. Explains why I was only allotted 15 minutes. And cuz they must put me on the cheapest trains, I have 5 hours to kill in Philly.
At least I got the gov to cover my travel costs for networking and co-counsel meeting.
(23) jj
Lemme guess. He made all his money copying you?
Nom: stop here on the way out….
http://memphistaproom.com/directions.htm
I will write up MTR later this morning…
Nope, but he is one of the few people I know who if he wrote a book I would buy it in a second. Guy’s career has always been in one direction up. I also give him credit for splitting a three bedroom rent controlled apartment all through the 90’s. Like he said in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999. Only an insane person would buy a house that only goes up in value 3% a year with all the headaches when one can leave it in tech stocks making 40% a year with no work involved. I thought he was nuts. But he got out weeks before the collaspe when he pronounced RE is about to make a huge run so I am in, now he is getting out of RE. The thing about him is zero diversification, all in. And he has been right since 1985. Funny thing he will be 100% in cash in a few weeks and back in a rental. And he is a married man with a kid. I would not have balls to sell my house and move to rental with wife and kids. I give him kudos. However, would hate to see his tax bill. He is selling his condo for a 1.4 million dollar profit.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
June 1, 2011 at 8:42 am
(23) jj
Lemme guess. He made all his money copying you?
#9 New listings coming on every day in River Edge, and this at the end of the Spring selling season, just a backlog of unsold homes. And price reductions almost every day.
We will be back to 2000 prices IMO before it is all over, maybe even late 90’s.
whipped… I used First Valley Funding (Clot’s guy) in 2009 and for the refi in 2010. Pretty good guy.
What is River Edge?….. do you mean Briggy Upon Hackey…
#14 gary I posted a new listing yesterday from River Edge, sold in 2006 for 680K. Offered today at 399K. OUCH!!!!!!
#15 Hobo – Exactly the problem with the real estate biz! If agents were responsible nobody would touch a listing like that!
(143) (prior) shore
Explains why I am getting one solicitation a day for these.
(144) shore,
That’s just one reason not to buy there. There are many.
Does that mean that clot’s guy is a communist or socialist?
sas3 says:
June 1, 2011 at 8:52 am
whipped… I used First Valley Funding (Clot’s guy) in 2009 and for the refi in 2010. Pretty good guy.
Me thinks ChiFi is a part owner in the MTR Bar and Grill.
#16 Nean: I don’t care what Linda Molinar says, the facts on the ground say something else. Blue Ribbony train townie Brig on Hack is backlogged with listings, many in the low to mid threes, and they are sitting. more in the low fours. Many of these would have sold for 500k and over at the peak. Heck you can even buy krap boxes now in the twos, simply unheard of.
As far as Ridgewood, there are over 125 SFH’s for sale, lots in the threes and fours, and they appear to be sitting. Now they need work, etc. But you can buy a 3 bed 1.5 bath house in Ridgewood now in the threes, again simply unheard of during the bubble. So Linda can go back to sleep.
#16 Neanderthal – That statement is about this moment in the crash. It doesn’t speak to what has happened prior to this moment.
It comes down to the fact that you want what is most desirable and that always gets hurt the least. The cherry houses take the least hit and that is why I say you are cherry picking.
Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:
June 1, 2011 at 7:59 am
Stench of Death, indeed….it smells worse than Casey Anthony’s backseat !!
clot: Do you want to see a cadaver sing?……too bad these guys have utterly and completely no stage presence because EE’s guitar is just great…..musically (sans zombie man on vocals) this version is rockier and superior to the studio version which sounds akin to The Killers/New Order….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqD5nPxJUsE
Chi,
on that topic… do you recognize any of these folks that used the same words a bit too frequently?
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2009/08/race-mixing-is-communism-or-race-is.html
40. 3b
You must be mistaken. Ridgewood is next to NYC and their prices never go down. Only up, up, up. You must be thinking of Ridgewood, Florida.
Whipped agree with hobo used one of his associates from First Vally, pleasent experience for signing your life away
#34 My apologies, forgot the name change.
I’ve got a good mortgage originator too if you want a second opinion.
http://www.mortgagemasterinc.com/LoanOfficers-detail.cfm?ID=864&alpha=
I shopped 13 brokers and he matched the lowest. He also was awesome in figuring out where I should setup my piggyback/Heloc. This he made no money off of, so it was definitely a bonus.
I was told by a realtor in early 2007 that Ridgewood is bleeding wealth. I really wish I remembered her name.
10-year at 3.00!
Gary now they are just bleeding
Interesting read
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article28221.htm
#49 Lib: Ugly ADP employment numbers. Good by QE 2, hellOOOOOOOOOOOO QE 3.
#44 Of course!!! Silly me.
3B, you keep your hand on the pulse of River Edge. As a close market watcher and as someone who’s offered up a $399K listing, in your opinion, what is the best deal there under $400K asking? In my opinion despite it’s nearly $12K in taxes, it’s
http://www.weichert.com/33378541/?cityid=43478&minpr=375&maxpr=400&view=gallery
I am guessing that property can be had for about $365K, around 10% off asking.
Either that listing or this listing with an asking of $329K, that I sense can be had for about $279K
http://www.weichert.com/37392582/?cityid=43478&mls=53&minpr=300&maxpr=350&view=gallery
Now knowing you, it would take a gun to your head to have to even consider the notion of buying a property now, but what say you on the best deal in town?
3B:
If I had any cash to invest, I would dump it all into equities at some point this Summer. Unfortunately, cash is short.
Jets12(53): I think this River Edge beauty definitely represents the best value…
http://tinyurl.com/riveredge-value
55, funny stuff….but that beer actually looked like a sam adams larger (a decent run of the mill amber). i figured that guy would be drinking a Pabst Blue Ribbon (to go with River Edge’s Blue Ribbony schools, as 3b would say).
Bill Gross was wrong, on treasuries and Whitney was wrong on Munis.
Crazy thing is July is the biggest month in munis for partial and full calls. With the huge bull maket run up in munis over last few months. Lots of people are going to get their juicy 5-6% tax free coupons called with nothing to re-invest into. Imagine going from a 6% tax free ten year to a taxable 3& Treasury, ouch!!! Better cancel the summer vacation.
Time to max out 401K contribuitions into equities, cause come fall stocks are headed up, wanna be done with your 16.5K by mid Sept.
I am seeing 7 year IO arms at 3%. Borrowing 500K for $1,250 a month is crazy jungle juice for the leveraged masses.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices extended gains on Wednesday, pushing 10-year yields down to 3% for the first time since December, after payroll-processing company ADP said the U.S. economy added far fewer jobs last month than economists had expected.
Yields on 10-year notes , which move inversely to prices, fell 6 basis points to 3% — the lowest level in six months and from 3.05% before the data. A basis point is 1/100th of a percent.
Wow, ING is under 3% for a adjustable rate mortgage with rate fixed for first five years.
Easy Orange
Rate:
2.990%
Payment:
$1,052.66 bi-weekly for a 500K loan
Housing imperils recovery? Bah….. We simply cannot fix this recovery without growth, everyone has been saying it all along here on this blog, blow out the investors losses and reset it, invest in recovery and not banks balance sheets.
Right now the GDP output gap is about 1 Trillon less than it should be by now. The Congressional Budget Office, predicts that over the next three years there will be a $2.9 Trillion gap between what the economy could produce and what it will actually produce.
Got Demand? Then you get growth.
Here is an interesting story on currency collapse:
http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/markets/could-a-currency-collapse-happen-here-1306426497914/?link=SM_invest_featStory
“The cause of the collapse wasn’t profit-hungry speculators or nefarious free-market bankers, but a highly authoritarian government beset by massive regulation, intervention, state-ownership of businesses and spending.”
—
Yes I know. It sounds like he is talking about New Jersey but he is referring to Belarus.
Stu, any thoughts on what specific equities? Trying to muster enough courage to buy something that isn’t an S&P index fund.
Sastry,
Join my investment club and you’ll learn everything there is that you would need to know to make investing decisions yourself. We have a meeting tomorrow night in West Orange at 7:30pm if you are indeed interested.
It’s the cheapest education you will ever receive. And have no fear, most of the group is pretty liberal :P
In Boston I’m noticing a trend where long time investors are selling their condos. These are investors who own 10-50 units across many neighborhoods who have lots of equity in the units. They are pricing them right and selling them quick.
After your next meeting give us your top three picks!
#
#
Libtard in the City says:
June 1, 2011 at 10:03 am
Sastry,
Join my investment club and you’ll learn everything there is that you would need to know to make investing decisions yourself. We have a meeting tomorrow night in West Orange at 7:30pm if you are indeed interested.
It’s the cheapest education you will ever receive. And have no fear, most of the group is pretty liberal :P
re: Housing & Recovery Pant up demand…… Housing prices may be back to 2002 levels but mortgage origination volume is back at 2000 levels. Mortgage origination could fall to $1.05 trillion in 2011, the lowest level in 11 years.
The Fed’s own report concludes that the only way around declining activity in mortgage origination because of the refinance segment (too far underwater to refinance, or too unemployed) would be to generate more activity in new home originations. Housing starts are now at 585k, about 1/3 of where we were in 2006.
Got Demand? A 3% IO no doc no income loan program might do it.
Stu, I’ve become a hardcore conservative in investment — or rather sh!t scared of things that I am not fully familiar with, bit I am repeat myself :)
I do hope that in a year or so I’ll muster enough courage. Most likely I will not be able to make it tomorrow night — an all nighter awaits me tonight, and yesterday night wasn’t good either. Will try to come to next meeting — barring out of town travel. Gator has my linkedin info, so please do drop an email (or subscribe me to your mailing list).
FYI on the investment club.
We are beating the S&P500 by a whopping .1% since 04/26/2005.
Since 1/1/2009 we are beating it by 5.4%.
If I was to cherry pick a date range like the big funds like to do, we are beating the S&P by 6.7% since 4/1/2009.
As a matter of fact, we haven’t had a single month in that we didn’t beat the indexes since 4/1/2009. It’s quite a streak that we are on currently. Surprisingly, it’s some recent small caps that we have added that has allowed us to maintain our streak.
We only invest in equities on American exchanges, but this includes ADRs. No ETFs, no mutual funds. We prefer to not pay some arrogant ahole a management fee for something that a child with about 40 hours of education can do. The returns above represent all of our costs, besides food at our meeting and gas to get you there. There was a significant start-up cost (and learning curve) which certainly hurt our performance early on.
Right about now is when ChiFi will chime in and tell me that over time, our performance will eventually settle down to meet the average of the indexes. He might even add something about confirmation bias. :P
SAS…I’ll shoot you the information. Most of our members invest between $20 and $40 per month in the club portfolio. The smart members mimic our purchases in their own portfolio. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but we can be hopeful.
Our next meeting will probably be in our new place so you can share with the group here how much RE has dropped in value. I’ll get in touch with you via your email from Gator.
I only take stock tips from Doormen and waiters.
No….the question is what is your index? and what is your risk adjusted return?
I would say that in about 2/3 of my accounts, I have underperformed the S&P 500 since 6/30/10…of course I am not targeting 100% equity allocation in the bulk of my accounts.
The S&P 500 was 1030.71 on 6/30/10…..we are up about 30% all-in from there. If I am working with a retiree and I give them a 2Q2011 report stating my trailing 12 is 30%, the shrewd ones would say to me……HTF did you pull that off cowboy?
Libtard in the City says:
June 1, 2011 at 10:17 am
Right about now is when ChiFi will chime in and tell me that over time, our performance will eventually settle down to meet the average of the indexes. He might even add something about confirmation bias. :P
Stu: so separate out all your positions by market cap as of 1/1/09 and 4/1/09 etc. , and come up with a market cap weighted index return for your portfolio to current…..it is the only apples to apples…..
Interesting, sastry’s financial sensibilities are parallel to his political ones….
Hope everyone had a great holiday. I posted here in the buyers shunning agents inquiring about not using a realtor and asking for 2.5% buyers comish back. Well we never got to put the offer in as it got multiple offers and went into attorney review two days after the open house (less than a week being listed). Fast forward to last week. A house we like gets listed, same neighborhood. We see it 2 days after it was listed, make a full pop offer the same day, no contingencies. Want this house. No effin around. Fast forward to yesterday, due to holiday etc, process has been dragged and we were informed there is another offer. Seller out of town, just got the offer, and will review today (skeptical about that). Anyway, we like the house, dont want to lose it. We dont mind increasing our offer, but by how much? We are already at full pop. Is there some common agent strategy for submitting a counter should the situation arise that we need too (we may have the highest offer now). Im just trying to be prepared.
As a general comment, what I am seeing is huge amount of money moving towards sectors/styles in favor…..as an example, for the last 6 weeks or so, if you moved money to large cap global stocks that paid a huge dividend, then you rocked….the key is that the dividend had to be robust……companies such as MSFT, CSCO, AAPL and GOOG were fcked because they are misers…..
The index I used to benchmark our results was the Vanguard500 index fund. Our portfolio currently looks like this:
Company Symbol % of Total
Apple Inc. AAPL 20.10%
Stryker SYK 11.40%
Canadian National Rail CNI 9.90%
Telefonica SA TEF 7.90%
Google GOOG 6.90%
Novo Nordisk NVO 6.10%
Advance Auto Parts AAP 5.90%
Accenture Ltd. ACN 5.30%
Global Payments (R) GPN 4.90%
Teva Pharma TEVA 4.20%
Calavo Growers* CVGW 3.60%
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG 3.40%
hhgregg* HGG 3.10%
NVE* NVEC 3.10%
Netflix NFLX 2.30%
EBIX* EBIX 1.90%
Home Depot HD 0.10%
Portfolio Averages
PAR 12.5%
Quality 74.6
Growth 11.8%
P/E Ratio 17.5
Yield 1.1%
Fin Strength 80%
EPS Stability 68
Size diversification based on sales growth:
40.7% small cap
40.1% mid cap
19.2% large cap
Sector diversification:
39.5% technology
21.7% healthcare
12.5% discretionary
9.9% industrial
7.9% telecom
4.9% financial
3.6% staples
We don’t measure risk, although we use a term called quality to help us measure our picks. We don’t pay attention to technical analysis as a matter of fact, we purchase our stocks 6 days after our Thursday meetings since we do program trades on Wednesday at noon to minimize our transaction costs. Our sells are always at the open. We hold our average equity for 3 years and add to our positions regularly. We do not plan to add any new names unless we get more members to help us follow them. We perform a study on each holding within one month after each quarterly result is posted. We are a registered general partnership and will need to incorporate once we get closer to 50K in holdings. Although we’ll probably just create a second entity (probably in NY) to get around NJ’s anti-investment tax regulations.
So how does one calculate the risk on such a portfolio, I’m always willing to learn.
Also, anyone else who is thinking about jumping into any of these equities is quite foolish. We will probably close 2 or 3 of these positions on Friday. The club will decide which ones based on valuation. Do your OWN research.
Buyingfirsthome says:
June 1, 2011 at 10:52 am
Want this house. No effin around.
YOU ARE EMOTIONAL (ALREADY DEAD IN WATER)
Fast forward to yesterday, due to holiday etc, process has been dragged and we were informed there is another offer. Seller out of town, just got the offer, and will review today (skeptical about that).
ALL LIES….WAITING TO GET AS MANY OFFERS AS POSSIBLE
Anyway, we like the house, dont want to lose it. We dont mind increasing our offer, but by how much? We are already at full pop.
WHAT DOES FULL POP MEAN?
HONESTLY…YOU ARE DEAD…PREPARE TO OVERPAY OR ELSE WALK….
YOU KNOW THE ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS…..YOU ARE PLAYING A GAME OF POKER….YOU WON’T KNOW THE FINAL ANSWER UNTIL THE SHOW…
Speculators, not lack of oil, raising the price of oil:
When oil prices surged to a ridiculous $147 a barrel in the summer of 2008, conventional wisdom held that normal supply and demand issues were the cause. … [T]hanks to Wikileaks, we now know that when the Bush administration reached out to the Saudis in the summer of ’08 to ask them to increase oil production to lower prices, the Saudis responded by saying they were having a hard time finding buyers for their oil as it was, and instead asked the Bush administration to rein in Wall Street speculators.
Matt Taibi
Oh, and ten-year is at $2.97.
Without diving into the details….you have 1/3 allocation to AAPL, GOOG and TEVA and have outperformed…how?
Answers!
Name Percent of Portfolio Return Since Annualized Internal Rate of Return
NETFLIX INC (NFLX) 2.30% 1/1/11 184.70%
HHGregg Inc (HGG) 3.10% 4/14/11 166.50%
NVE Corp (NVEC) 3.10% 4/14/11 139.70%
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) 3.40% 1/1/11 132.90%
Accenture Plc (ACN) 5.30% 1/1/11 53.20%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 9.90% 1/1/11 49.90%
Stryker Corp (SYK) 11.40% 1/1/11 46.00%
Global Payments Inc (GPN) 4.90% 1/1/11 39.40%
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) 6.10% 1/1/11 34.80%
Telefonica S.A (TEF) 7.90% 1/1/11 24.90%
Apple Inc (AAPL) 20.10% 1/1/11 17.00%
Home Depot Inc (HD) 0.10% 1/1/11 10.30%
Teva Pharm Ind Inc ADR (TEVA) 4.20% 1/1/11 5.00%
Calavo Growers (CVGW) 3.60% 2/17/11 -7.30%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) 5.90% 1/1/11 -24.40%
GOOGLE INC CL A (GOOG) 6.90% 1/1/11 -26.10%
Ebix Inc (EBIX) 1.90% 2/10/11 -49.80%
Chi…I ran an investment performance report with a date range of 1/1/2011 till today. If you want to see a different range, please let me know.
Stu: Russell 2000 is up well over 100% since 4/1/09 as is the mid cap index…
16, miw too…
Did you prune oversized positions (i.e. NFLX)?
Stu ?? AAPL is up about 5% YTD
BTW AAPL was basically flat YTD until about 2-3 days ago…..
(77) jersey girl,
That ain’t hardly news. To me, it was news that the admin did not know that.
Stu: just as an ancillary comment; to be clear I think you guys are thoughtful and patient, but given your objectives, I am surprised at some of your speculative positions and also portfolio weighting…that’s all really….
Yes…I am aware Chifi. We don’t index chase. I’ll run some benchmark reports comparing our portfolio to both the Russell2000 and a mid-cap index.
Mad Loot Investment Club 33.0%
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) 36.2%
Nuveen Mid Cap Index Cl I (FIMEX) 37.4%
Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) 26.3%
Considering our horizontal diversication, of 40/40/20 – I’d say we’re doing all right. Not blowing the roof off, but probably doing better than the average schlock who has all of their money in an age-based mutual fund.
We’ll revisit in another year or so. :P
BTW if you like SYK…then I wished I had pounded the table harder for you on MAKO…..I piled into it in early November…however it is now at joke levels…..basically GS came out and put $36 on it and then it just took off…..I think people are betting on takeout….it is really uninvestible at this point..can’t be short or long….
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mako&ql=1
Yes…Everytime we sell the momentum plays, they keep on redoubling. Had we held NFLX since we originally bought it, we would have had nearly an 800% return. We also viciously trimmed down our CMG position. Some a little early, but we are not greedy. If our study screams overvalued, then we trim our position. The Mad Loot Investment Club does not stay on 16 against a 10.
Stu: We prefer to not pay some arrogant ahole a management fee for something that a child with about 40 hours of education can do.
40 hours? You are being too harsh on that child! My “Buy SPY” trade beats many financial managers.
Chi: you think my financial sensibilities are parallel to my political ones?
I am being somewhat “conservative” in my investment choices — especially after burning through a big chunk of money through some horrible trades.
Stu, re house values… we pumped in a lot of money into the house to finish the basement, to put in a new deck, and to clean up the backyard, but haven’t been thinking of it as investment. It’s becoming a nicer place though…
Yeah… I remember you mentioning Mako. Or was it JJ who said uh oh, better get Mako.
If current housing prices existed four years ago, Mrs. Shore and I would have purchased an additional NJ home (or maybe one in NY somewhere) in a heartbeat. Now? Even with a fair run-up in net worth and yearly income, we are just not so sure we have an interest.
Why? I am glad you asked — property taxes. And, it is not the current taxes, as bad as they may be. What concerns the risk averse soul in both of us is the potential for runaway property tax increases. Add to that the potential to pay a premium in income taxes in retirement, or heck, even today, should one state jurisdiction or another decide that because the house has a bathroom and running water it is our primary residence. We are in the perverse position of being well positioned to buy but so unsure of what the future tax implications are that we have decided to deploy resources elsewhere.
We have also decided to take a couple weeks during the summer to skulk around the southern-mid-atlantic and northernmost southern coast to see if any places more or less interest us. I suspect that, once taxes start giving people like us serious pause, it is a sign of bad things to come with respect to demand. Unfortunately, I also suspect that any price drops that occur because of lower demand will be sucked up by increased taxes as people focus on “affordability” — meaning, can you pay the combined mortage and taxes today? Whether one can do so if taxes double is a matter for another day; in the meantime, buy the sucker, you can afford it.
Stu: final comment….it makes sense given QE1 & QE2, right? Smaller companies are always resource constrained and capital hungry…if you flood the market with cheap money, then the ones that are closest to a theoretical call option are going to give you more pop…..not to make excuses for Bergabe, but you can argue his position from the standpoint that most jobs are created by the smaller and growing companies and he is attempting to foster an environment for those actors……bang for the buck? debatable……
Libtard in the City says:
June 1, 2011 at 11:33 am
Yeah… I remember you mentioning Mako. Or was it JJ who said uh oh, better get Mako.
That was me :)
Libtard, I cover and like one of your companies but don’t want to tell you which one. B.Gates is a major shareholder, btw.
Sas3,
About upgrading the house. It’s great that you realize that upgrades only pay off in a sellers market and even then, it’s not always the case. When ever I do work, I try to envision what it would cost to rent a home with the upgrades in place, versus paying to have it done. I think the key to the mental equation revolves around how long one plans to stay at the current address. I know that everyone thinks they are going to stay in their new home permanently, but I’m floored by how many homes we looked at during our search that changed hands two or three times over a five or six year period. So when sinking $20,000 into a basement, keep in mind that the average homeowner will pay about $11 a day for the carpeted and sheetrocked basement privilege if they live in the home for 5 years.
I think I know which one it is A. West, and I doubt it’s Calavos Growers, the avocado company.
West: that is your space? interesting….do you publish at all?
Good thing we are in Iraq and Afghanistan when there is a war raging right below Texas, would somebody please end drug prohibition.
A little third world primer coming to a neighborhood near you
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_mexico_drugs_monterrey
Chifi,
My reports were out there from 2003 to 2006 when I was working for S&P Equity Research, and when BNSF was my top pick far before Buffet ever got around to buying it. Apparently he wasn’t interested when it was still a value stock. Went on tv a few times for that role. Now my research insights are reserved for my firm’s >$15bn client assets.
#53 jets: No you do not know me, and as far as uying or owning property, you don’t know my situation on that either. But you are right, in that I know the town well. If you want my honest opinion, I don’t think any thing with a 12k handle in property taxes has a whole lot of value in it right now, because there is no end in sight to the increases, and the Oradell funding issue of the regional schools is not going away. In addition there are 4 or 5 different plans for additional condos and rentals to be built in town, which has the potential to add more kids to the school system, which will increase taxes even more. Why do you think Oradell is challenging the funding issue in the first place after all these years? Way too much uncertainity IMO for anyone to make a committment there now. You can pretty well bank on the higher the taxes increaase, the lower the prices will go.
If I had to choose one of those listings it would be the Summit Ave, hands down at no more than 325K, and Richard Court at no more than 225K.
#54 Lib Cash on the sidelines waiting.
West: so glad you got out of there; I am dumbstruck how chronically tone deaf their equity research is….just disappointing….I wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt that they were conservative or something, but they could not have wrong-footed 2007-2009 any worse than they did….that said Sam is a great guy at least from a client relations perspective, albeit a bit inert and ineffectual….
A.West says:
June 1, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Chifi, My reports were out there from 2003 to 2006 when I was working for S&P Equity Research, and when BNSF was my top pick far before Buffet ever got around to buying it. Apparently he wasn’t interested when it was still a value stock. Went on tv a few times for that role. Now my research insights are reserved for my firm’s >$15bn client assets.
Actually both Sam and David Wyss are both really pleasant to interact with, intelligent, approachable and sadly utter devoid of value-add…..
utterly
I liked utter devoid a lot more.
#5, Whipped, we used Bob Farrell at FVF last October when we bought. Top-notch service. You want an experienced skipper navigating your boat.
The Stovalls appeared to exist entirely for marketing. Well I guess they publish some sort of “strategy” pieces. The earlier purpose of the whole organization was to give independent brokerage offices their own set of talking points. But yes, seemed like a nice enough guy when he wasn’t on the road. Wyss split his time among many groups in the firm, probably spent more time with credit than equity. He had a pretty econometric assistant back then who I suspect did more of the modelling. I remember in 06 he gave the equity side an economic review, he had some line about how the economy should be ok as long as housing held up, and there was spontaneous laughter in the room. Many of us, particularly in the industrial sector group, were particularly concerned about the housing bubble.
The tendency of all research is to be positive during good news, negative during bad news, the value-add is to see through the sentiment and be disciplined with a good process. There are some good analysts there, but it would be a waste for a good analyst to spend his/her career there. They actually force analysts to join the NY jouralist union, which creates a system which rewards the mediocre “lifer” and encourages the more innovative and ambitious to leave within a few yrs.
“not to make excuses for Bergabe, but you can argue his position from the standpoint that most jobs are created by the smaller and growing companies and he is attempting to foster an environment for those actors……bang for the buck? debatable……”
Chi,
No excuses needed for Bergabe. QE1 & 2 were targeted specifically for the banking industry under the guise of supporting a weak economy. As the system continues to teeter on the slope of a collapse, QE3, 4, etc.. will surface. Of course, the fed will use an economy/jobs in a rat hole as their alibi. Imagine if they told the truth?
Range: If you believe in that scenario, then you have your built in investment thesis for U.S. equities.
Lone Ranger says:
June 1, 2011 at 1:31 pm
Chi, No excuses needed for Bergabe. QE1 & 2 were targeted specifically for the banking industry under the guise of supporting a weak economy. As the system continues to teeter on the slope of a collapse, QE3, 4, etc.. will surface. Of course, the fed will use an economy/jobs in a rat hole as their alibi. Imagine if they told the truth?
NJ under Tornado Watch until 8 P.M.
Tornado watch is just perfect. Gator is volunteering at an ice cream social from 2:30 to 4:30 this afternoon at Applegate. There will probably be about 70 kindergartners sitting outside there. I already warned her that if she hears thunder in the far distance, she should usher the kids back to the school. Good times. Checked the radar and it looks like it should get here (if it does) right around 3:30.
“Range: If you believe in that scenario, then you have your built in investment thesis for U.S. equities.”
Chi,
I would not paint with a broad brush. There are many sectors that will continue to thrive; those that benefit from a falling dollar.
While the kindergarteners in Great Neck are studying Mandarian the kindergarteners in Jersey are stuffing their fat faces. Good news is it would take at least a 200 mph wind to pick you your gov.
Libtard in the City says:
June 1, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Tornado watch is just perfect. Gator is volunteering at an ice cream social from 2:30 to 4:30 this afternoon at Applegate. There will probably be about 70 kindergartners sitting outside there. I already warned her that if she hears thunder in the far distance, she should usher the kids back to the school. Good times. Checked the radar and it looks like it should get here (if it does) right around 3:30.
Got housing starts?
http://www.census.gov/const/startsan.pdf
Just looked up historical interest rates at HSBC. In 2006 I was earning an FDIC-insured 5.0% return, today I’m earning 0.8%.
Strange that there’s no news coverage this drastic change, do people not care?
Memphis Tap Room
Comments:
Neighborhood – Barbara is a clown….it looks like some cruddy areas of Hoboken/Jersey City….streets of nondescript crap, but residential with lived-in homes…entire blocks have been gutted so pre-fab condos have been laid it…some gutted warehouse conversions, mostly a lower middle class gentrifying neighborhood. One guy commented (was it work4beer?) that where MTR is ok, but don’t go too many blocks west. This advice appears correct. The directions take you to Trenton Avenue, which seems to have a trappings of the “dividing line” into hell. BTW the directions off the website appear to be a courtesy to neighbors keeping traffic off theri streets, so they are not as direct as they could be. As a frame of reference, there is a brand new Applebee’s that is about 4 blocks away….caveat…convenient to nothing except 95 and near nothing….nuff said…
Beers….choice of 12/16/20 oz glasses…..most 16 oz are $4-5!!??!!!
We had 5 of which I only remember 4….
Victory Prima Pils appears to be the equivalent of the tap water here;
Summit Gold Sovereign
and my wife’s favorite of the day, which was the Sierra Nevada South Hemisphere Harvest.
They also had this thing…..Eisbock Schneider Aventus Weizen in a “fert barrel” (?) on a gravity pour(?)….which I would describe as akin to a Port wine or a desert wine….
Since some of your no what the above stuff is, I will eave it to you to comment….I was just jazzed on the selection, quality and price….
Food (copy pasted off menu):
Really shockingly good
PORK RILLONS AND WATERMELON SALAD (nice)
PILSNER-BRINED HOT WINGS (just wings…but damned good)
CHARRED STRING BEANS (as advertised)
SMOKED COCONUT CLUB (Linda was floored how good this vegan dish was)
GRILLED SKIRT STEAK (steak really great…sides fine)
Cost…..5 dishes, 5 beers….$75…great value
These guys also seem to run a place called Resurrection Ale House (different chef) which is on Gray’s Ferry and Catharine. In the old days, there would be no fkin way I would go south of South/Lombard….I guess others would know better…
Also they run Local 44, which looks to be a West Philly/Penn bar….
JJ -re: conforming FHA single family loan limit change coming Oct 1 2011.
Seems it would have only have effected 3% of 29k loans issued in NJ last year. In NY it was 2% of 39k loans. CT was 8% of 12k loans.
Table 2 page 20
http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=fhaloanlmhera.pdf
Double Down,
The government doesn’t want people to save, they want you to go shopping to “stimulate the economy”. Don’t worry, you won’t need any savings anyway, nanny state will take care of you. This is an explicit foundation of Keyensian economics, which virtually all major economic policymakers adhere to. So savings rates have been dropped to confiscatory levels.
Here’s something I wrote about standard economics taught in schools that suggests the sort of insanity we’re dealing with:
http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/economics/1452-modern-keynesian-macroeconomics-an-assault-on-the-human-mind.html
Double Down,
The government doesn’t want people to save, they want you to go shopping to “stimulate the economy”. Don’t worry, you won’t need any savings anyway, nanny state will take care of you. This is an explicit foundation of Keyensian economics, which virtually all major economic policymakers adhere to.
Here’s something I wrote about standard economics taught in schools that suggests the sort of insanity we’re dealing with: http://tinyurl.com/myarticleawest
re #118 Care no coverage? Rates dropped back in 2008, and it was covered by the Media when it dropped below 4%. People have adjusted to the new norm. Sure people care about the interest rates on their cash savings but right now return of capital is much more important to them than return on capital. The risk takers are only a tiny % of the population. Try explaining a long/short equity investment strategy or buying gold to a Johnny the Welder or Grandma.
We are NOT at the bargaining stage ladies and gentlemen. POTUS does not even have a plan to cut any spending. I repeat there is no backup plan other than tax increases.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/06/a-frosty-and-frank-meeting-between-president-obama-and-house-gop.html
No visit to Philly is complete without a stop at Village Whiskey.
Double, if you don’t need the money for the next five years or so, you have many options beyond the savings account (BTW, FNBOdirect gives 1.0% APY, you can see a 25% increase in your investment return :)).
Another option is to pay more towards mortgage if you have a mortgage and don’t subscribe to the theory that one of the following will forcefully snatch your house for no reason: commies, uncle sam, and x-tian jihadists.
On the other hand, if that pot of money is basically for expenses in case there is a sudden job loss or two, there aren’t that many options!
ChiFi Summit Gold Sovereign is muy tasty, have to meet a person who does not like Prima Pils, my german FIL, drinks it like water as it is and I qoute “the only american pilsner worth drinking.
That menu looks good an the prices are nice. They offer a beer sampler?
(124) grim
Would that I had time. On train back to jersey.
(119) chifi
I lived very close to grays ferry and Catherine. There was a bbig push to gentrify that area, but to me it was getting too close to point breeze.
Back in jersey. Sigh
Juice think of that scene in Blazing Saddles “We need to keep our phony baloney jobs Gentleman, Harumph” That pretty much sums up my thoughts on this whole sham government in Washington
Stu gator blow away yet? I miss Applegates, being 10 minutes from my in-laws I was there often, lactose intolerance be damned
They telegraphed the rate decreases in 2007, people had plenty of time to roll CDs into 5 year cds or ten year treasuries. If someone sat through numerous 25-75 basis points cuts over two years and did nothing whose fault is it. When I worked at bank I always explained to old ladies when rates were declining lock in five years and break it if you have to, the extra interest makes it worth it and penalty is tax deducatable anyow.
Double Down says:
June 1, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Just looked up historical interest rates at HSBC. In 2006 I was earning an FDIC-insured 5.0% return, today I’m earning 0.8%.
Strange that there’s no news coverage this drastic change, do people not care?
ranger (111)-
The Fed won’t stop their shenanigans until every grandma and pensioner in the US is loaded to the gills with NFLX and a bunch of other toxic, high-beta/gamma equities.
Then, they will bar the doors shut and set fire to the barn.
Ranger (115)-
Friskies’ stock will be on a rocketship to the moon, then.
“There are many sectors that will continue to thrive; those that benefit from a falling dollar.”
dd (118)-
People too busy loading up on Friskies at helf price.
Wow. I can post here, and put the word “Friskies” in every single post.
Eat your heart out, Booyah Bob (guessing you are still stuck in Fla. with Listen).
“Just looked up historical interest rates at HSBC. In 2006 I was earning an FDIC-insured 5.0% return, today I’m earning 0.8%.
Strange that there’s no news coverage this drastic change, do people not care?”
ASSOCIATED BANC-CORPCALL 9.25000% 10/15/2018
Price (Ask) 112.089
Yield to Worst (Ask) 3.837%
Chifi this should make up for my Ambac call. You said don’t buy at 95 in March 2010.
Hobo -It’s not a deal right now. Wait till it drops back down to $9.60
Friskies Cat Food Classic Pate, Liver & Chicken Dinner, 5.5-Ounce Cans (Pack of 24)
$11.42 for a 24 can pack down from $18.50 in Aug 2009.
http://thetracktor.com/detail/B002CJAOOO/
The below blurb from an articel in Market Watch regarding today’s ADP #’s and how they do not bode well for Friday’s BLS #”s says it all. So called experts were dismissing the idea that the big rise in #’s in first time unemplyment claims was merely and aberation, and would be……… well read below.
“Analysts tended to dismiss the claims data as an aberration. They saw continued strength in hiring, and some were hopeful that more than 50,000 jobs created by McDonald’s Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!mcd/quotes/nls/mcd MCD -0.68% might offset any weakness in other sectors. “
Juice,
What inflation!?!? The price of Ramen is down!
http://thetracktor.com/detail/B001CUGD9Y/
4. Whipped
Chase holds all my mortgages and offered to refi in house for all the “benefits.” When I got the break down in fees it came to be about double what others were offering. Doubling up on application fees, etc. Insane. The guy said to me that the benefit was no credit check or proof of income. I have a credit score in the 800s, which he knew. This does not benefit me. I’m going with another lender who is charging 1/3 the fees. Yes, I had to do all the proof of income and I will have appraisers going through my houses, but I have nothing to hide so who cares?
Not sure about 1st mortgages, but Chase doesn’t seem like the best deal out there and their people are telephone jockeys, completely clueless about the business.
118. double down
no one cares because whether its 5% or .08%, you earn 0% on a checking account with 25 dollars.
“Sure people care about the interest rates on their cash savings but right now return of capital is much more important to them than return on capital.”
Isn’t your statement a contradiction? If people are concerned with “return of capital” they should be concerned with rates in FDIC guaranteed accounts.
JJ, no five year lock-ins for me. Though I do admire the returns you’ve claimed at The Casino.
Perhaps this is a good investment for the times:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/engineering/architecture/4325649
:)
Hobo [132],
One other item, at some point there will be a disconnect between the stock market and QE. One day the market may realize that QE is a sham, only devised for the fed’s constituents.
Hobo,
Bear & Lehman went down with approx 35-1 leverage, on worthless crap. The same shit has been transferred to the fed. At this time, they are only leveraged at 51-1. Nothing has changed but the leverage and institution.
re # 140- Double why would the banks pay you to house your money? That is so last decade.
Anyone who gives their mortgage business to Chase might as well make charitable donations to Satan.
ranger (141)-
No one will realize it’s all a sham…until it’s too late.
Then all of us will be roaming the land, sleeping in the open and warming ourselves next to trash barrel fires.
We are all basically the lobsters in that experiment where you put them in a pot of cold water and raise the temperature one degree at a time until they’re boiled to death.
I believe that is a frog, Hobo
In new york when you refinance with the same bank their is no mortgage recording tax. When I refinanced with Chase even with extra fees it was cheaper.
Barbara says:
June 1, 2011 at 4:20 pm
4. Whipped
Chase holds all my mortgages and offered to refi in house for all the “benefits.” When I got the break down in fees it came to be about double what others were offering. Doubling up on application fees, etc. Insane. The guy said to me that the benefit was no credit check or proof of income. I have a credit score in the 800s, which he knew. This does not benefit me. I’m going with another lender who is charging 1/3 the fees. Yes, I had to do all the proof of income and I will have appraisers going through my houses, but I have nothing to hide so who cares?
Not sure about 1st mortgages, but Chase doesn’t seem like the best deal out there and their people are telephone jockeys, completely clueless about the business.
salmon (147)-
My bad. Thanks for the correction.
[139] Sad but true. I heard on one of the NPR money shows last weekend that the majority of Americans couldn’t come up with $2K in cash if they needed it.
Reminds me of that old SNL skit Don’t Buy Things You Can’t Afford …
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/dont-buy-stuff/27169/
And where would you get this ‘saved money’?
Why not lock in. The fee to break a CD is only three months interest and tax deductible.
If in January 2008 you locked in a five year 5% CD you would have been way ahead of game by locking in a one year cd that matured in January 2009.
Ally bank for instance had super low CD break fees. In Ally’s case it only makes sense to go long.
The interesting thing is June, July and August are usually big full call and partial call months is rates are low for corporates and munis. Back in December, January and Feb hardly any high coupon callable bonds were called due to market conditions. Lots of cash due to called bonds in July that needs to be put to work. Rates are headed lower short term.
Double Down says:
June 1, 2011 at 4:23 pm
“Sure people care about the interest rates on their cash savings but right now return of capital is much more important to them than return on capital.”
Isn’t your statement a contradiction? If people are concerned with “return of capital” they should be concerned with rates in FDIC guaranteed accounts.
JJ, no five year lock-ins for me. Though I do admire the returns you’ve claimed at The Casino.
Coworker of mine recently went to refi and the bank came back and asked him to cut a check to them for 40k to do it. Right now he is praying for a tornado strike on his house since he figures he is at least 100k underwater since his 2006 purchase.
clot: you misunderstood…..salmon was using a slur against French-Canadians…..
149.Hobo With a Shotgun says:
June 1, 2011 at 5:03 pm
salmon (147)-
My bad. Thanks for the correction.
JJ, thanks for the Ally Bank info. I plan to transfer out of my fnbo savings account to the 5-year CD — the rates are nice (2.39% APY versus the 1.0% APY savings, and 1.9% APY on a 5-year CD at fnbo), and penalty is lower (2 months versus 6 months at fnbo). A couple of bucks extra savings… You da man! Should have asked you for input earlier…
This thing is worse than colleratal presented at Fed Window in August 2008……
35.JJ says:
June 1, 2011 at 3:52 pm
ASSOCIATED BANC-CORPCALL 9.25000% 10/15/2018
Price (Ask) 112.089
Yield to Worst (Ask) 3.837%
Chifi this should make up for my Ambac call. You said don’t buy at 95 in March 2010.
Ah the good old days. I recall an old GF with a neg am loan back in 1990, her balance actually went up every month. Had to borrow 40K from boss at 8% non-tax deducatable to refinance into a conforming mortgage.
#
#
Juice Box says:
June 1, 2011 at 5:13 pm
Coworker of mine recently went to refi and the bank came back and asked him to cut a check to them for 40k to do it. Right now he is praying for a tornado strike on his house since he figures he is at least 100k underwater since his 2006 purchase.
I sold nearly all my bank bonds, but I kept a few of the high coupon ones for shits and giggles. Just the fact an FDIC bank that loans money at 4% issued bonds at 9.25% is funny.
chi – NYC says:
June 1, 2011 at 5:38 pm
This thing is worse than colleratal presented at Fed Window in August 2008……
35.JJ says:
June 1, 2011 at 3:52 pm
ASSOCIATED BANC-CORPCALL 9.25000% 10/15/2018
Price (Ask) 112.089
Yield to Worst (Ask) 3.837%
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chi (155)-
Not true. Unless it’s in the process of defaulting.
First swim in the ocean this season today. 56 degrees. Brrrrrr.
john: those freakin’ TruPS I loaded up on last summer are now trading to 2012 & 2013 calls……lots of low 20’s now at premiums because the handles are between 6-9%; I also believe that step-up MS bond will be called……12 months at 5% was good for that target………all my BBB corporates are getting called left and right……says it all……
JJ says:
June 1, 2011 at 5:46 pm
I sold nearly all my bank bonds, but I kept a few of the high coupon ones for shits and giggles. Just the fact an FDIC bank that loans money at 4% issued bonds at 9.25% is funny.
chi – NYC says:
June 1, 2011 at 5:38 pm
This thing is worse than colleratal presented at Fed Window in August 2008……
NJCoast says:
June 1, 2011 at 6:27 pm
First swim in the ocean this season today. 56 degrees. Brrrrrr.
The thermometer in my car (accurate) said it was 101 in Red Bank at 3PM…was it that hot elsewhere? WTF?
ChiFi,
Yes, it was me. I used to hang with a friend who owned a rowhouse in that neighborhood back in my Temple days.
Salmon is right, those of us that appreciate a good Pilsner love Victory’s Prima Pils. One of the best pilsners going, regardless of continent.
As far as the Schneider Eisbock Aventinus Weiss, its one of the best Doppelbocks there is, then Eisbocked (ice beer), which means freezing and then removing water to increase flavor and alcohol content.
.
One guy commented (was it work4beer?) that where MTR is ok, but don’t go too many blocks west. This advice appears correct.
Double down…everybody knows the score on the money rates.
Little guys hunkered down and took their lashes with their cold gruel. But heads eventually will spill into the hot oil and pop like fireworks.
Don’t think I quite captured clot’s expressiveness, but the intent was there.
Chifi-
In the 60’s, hazy, and very windy on the beach in Allenhurst. Hoodie weather.
Two blocks west, in the 90’s.
John, you know what’s funny? We’ll be telling our kids about the Fed window in 20 years like we’re immigrants who came here with money rolled in carpets to escape the mafioso. Using all kinds of hand gestures trying to get the point across.
At least a hundred at the pool today. First practice and all the other parents see my back and pity me my hot flashes.
Aventinus is an absolutely delicious double. Had it the first time two years ago at Mesa Grill in Caesar’s in Vegas. Remembered it well enough to write the name down. The funny thing about is that it’s actually not pricey in the old beer store. $3.69 for a 16.9 oz at Bevmo. Why oh why don’t we have Bevmo’s here on the East coast?
A second on the Victory pilsner as well. Just about everything that brewer produces is top notch.
I’m not in Philly that often, but next time I’m there, I’m definitely stopping in.
High in Red Bank was 93 today. Newark saw 95.
121 West, one of the best essays I’ve read in a long time. Thanks for sharing… I certainly connected with your college eco 101 frustration, my professor was harvard phd academia who wrote his own book and basically wanted everyone to memorize all of it, horrible experience. I struggle with keynesian application in my own life because, unlike the us govt, we can’t print our own money, so until i can reconcile the perspective, i find it difficult to be as anti keynes as your piece suggests you are, and at the same time admire that you’ve sorted it all out so clearly. Also i think of anti keynes as hoover in 1930, so proud to balance the national budget he was… worst of two evils to me. Besides all the details and mixed emotions, I really enjoyed that read…
137:
Ramen is a luxury when you’ve routinely spent the meal plan $ on $38 round trip tix to Vegas & LA. Who knew it really was preparing me for the future. See, college was worthwhile.
NE [170]
Are you serious? The essay while written using the correct English grammar, doesn’t provide any argument against Keynesianism except for the claim it gives the author shivers. If anything, the 9 years since 2002 when this bunk had been written showed total failure of supply-side and rational expectations theories. Actually, most of the RE disasters we are monitoring on this blog have their roots precisely in these two concepts. I am always amazed at how much effort is spent to make people forget that it’s been Keynesian economics that allowed for the emergence of the U.S. middle class majority in 1940s-60s, and it’s been the supply-side “woodoo” win in 1980s that started its decline.
sas3 [154],
2.39% for a 5 year CD? Robbery. If real rates continue, as they are now, you’ll be losing approx 4-6% per year. Run the other way.
pat (164)-
I’ll give you the Clot Award for the head-pop metaphor.
I like it when skulls explode.
Pat (166)-
The irony is, the Fed window took grimy old carpets as collateral.
“We’ll be telling our kids about the Fed window in 20 years like we’re immigrants who came here with money rolled in carpets to escape the mafioso.”
Funny business at the Crimex.
“About a month ago we indicated that Comex depository Scotia Mocatta “lost” 25% of its Registered (aka Physical) silver after the vault encountered a “reporting reclassification” which saw 5,287,142 ounces of silver moved from Registered to Eligible status, dropping the vault’s true holdings from 11.8 million ounces to 6.5 million. Naturally, the response from the peanut gallery was that this was a tempest in a teacup and it was “temporary” and a-ha, any minute it would reverse, and all shall be well, everyone would live happily ever after, and the Comex would actually have silver available for delivery purposes. We decided to not hold our breath. Which after pulling today’s most recent Comex warehouse data appears to have been a prudent decision, because for the first time ever total registered silver has dropped below 30 million ounces, after experiencing a 5% overnight drop across the board, primarily driven by yet another 1,456,488 ounce “adjustment” of warehoused silver from Registered To Eligible at Scotia Mocatta. As of last night, total Scotia physical silver was now 4,740,447 ounces, a 24% drop overnight, and a massive 60% drop from the total which we captured on April 20. Still think it’s temporary?”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/scotia-mocatta-loses-60-its-physical-silver-one-month-reclassification-total-comex-registere
“Are you serious?”
cobbler, yes and I really don’t care to defend or bash the keynesian view by going tit for tat to your laundry list of why keynes=wrong, in fact my compliments and commentary to westy’s piece was purposely agnostic to that by highlighting my own conflicted indecision on the subject but i don’t need to be anti printing press to appreciate his thought process. Theres way more to that article than a diatribe on keynes.
We should dig Keynes up and kill him again.
solution to debt problem = create more debt = sheer madness
Clot,
You sooooo miss the point. The math supports using debt to solve a debt problem.
Debt is a negative value. So, since a negative times a negative is a positive. Multiplying debt gives a surplus.
Ket,
Here you go:
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/05/31/japan.nuclear.suicide/
Japanese seniors volunteer for Fukushima ‘suicide corps’
http://www.chicagotribune.com/travel/family/wpix-man-busted-masturbating-on-plane,0,4258086.story?obref=obnetwork
Why talk further, when we have Billy Idol to explain it all:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG1NrQYXjLU
Hate to be to poor schmuck who gets that guy’s seat on the next flight.
You can’t imagine how good are the crews that clean the planes in 20 minutes between the flights.
Good night NJ
Anyone hear how Cindy is making out in CA?
Wonderful blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News. Do you have any suggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Appreciate it