Wealth Effect Ball and Chain Effect

From HousingWire:

American home equity cut by one-third

The head of global securitized products research at Citi Global Markets said that home equity held by American households is down from 60% to 39%.

Mary Kane, speaking at an American Securitization Forum session about consumer trends and the state of the housing market, said residential mortgage comprised the largest proportion of debt held by families.

The massive decline in home prices in the last few years is hitting those household investments hard, especially if families don’t invest in other ways, such as with stocks and bonds. If families are not in the stock market, then recent rallies in those markets aren’t helping them.

In regards to falling home equity, Kane said it is important to keep perspective on the statistic.

“When looking at this number, it’s a very bifurcated number,” Kane said. “One-third of homeowners don’t have a mortgage, and another 20% are underwater.”

An estimated 14 million homeowners have negative equity, according to the ASF.

Kane added that total U.S. debt is on a 10-year climb. The debt held by U.S. households in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 77% greater than in 4Q 2000, when including the effect of taxpayer exposure to the federal deficit.

“I think it’s extremely important that lenders and families take responsibility for taking on debt responsibly,” Kane said, in an appeal to lenders to take a more proactive view of mortgages.

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133 Responses to Wealth Effect Ball and Chain Effect

  1. Confused In NJ says:

    So True.

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. Home Prices Fell 5.7% in April From Year Earlier, FHFA Says

    U.S. home prices fell 5.7 percent in April from a year earlier, signaling the housing market is struggling to recover as foreclosures weigh down values.

    The decline was led by an 11 percent drop in the region that includes Nevada and Arizona, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said today in a report from Washington. The second- largest slump was 8.6 percent in the area that includes Florida.

    Foreclosures have boosted the supply of available homes and reduced prices because they sell at a discount. Low interest rates have done little to stimulate demand for homes as mortgage standards tighten and unemployment hovers close to 9 percent. It would take 9.3 months to sell all the homes on the market in May at the current sales pace, up from 7.5 months in January, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    Prices rose 0.8 percent from March, the FHFA said. Economists had projected a 0.3 percent decline from the previous month, according to the average of 18 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The monthly gain was led by a 2.2 percent increase in the area that includes Massachusetts, and a 2.1 percent rise in the region that includes Texas, the report showed.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Foreclosed Inventory Shrinks as Homes Sell

    About 1.7 million U.S. homes were in the foreclosure process and expected to be put on the market as of April, down 18 percent from the peak, as fewer loans entered delinquency and more distressed homes sold, CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX) said.

    The so-called shadow inventory represented a five-month supply at the current sales pace, the Santa Ana, California- based real estate information company, said today. The inventory’s size is a barometer of housing-market health because foreclosed homes sell for lower prices and falling values discourage buying, said Sam Khater, CoreLogic’s chief economist.

    “It’s showing there are improvements in some segments of the market,” he said in a telephone interview from McLean, Virginia. “It doesn’t mean housing distress is over, but it does show that the pipeline of distress is beginning to ease.”

    Mortgage delinquencies fell to 8.32 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from a record 10.1 percent in 2010’s first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported May 19. The number of homes with mortgages at least 90 days late dropped to 1.96 million in April from a January 2010 peak of 3.06 million, Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS) reported June 1.

  5. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “The debt held by U.S. households in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 77% greater than in 4Q 2000.”
    Maybe thats because home prices are 77% higher than 2000…

  6. All Hype says:

    8:30a

    BREAKING

    Weekly U.S. jobless claims climb to 429,000
    8:30a

    U.S. jobless claims rise 9,000 to 429,000
    8:30a

    Four-week claims average flat at 426,250
    8:30a

    Continuing claims decline 1,000 to 3.7 million

  7. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Whitey Bulger caught in CA.

    Watch Obama take credit for it.

  8. seif says:

    who should take credit for it?

  9. Mikeintime says:

    The guy is 82, how long will he last anyway. Be dead before his trial gets resolved. A good team of lawyers should be able to tie this up for a couple of years.

  10. Mikeintime says:

    Hype 6 not to worry we have “Hope & Change”, more like a wing & a prayer. In the future just substitute wing & a prayer for “Hope & Change” it will be more accurate.

  11. Shore Guy says:

    “Hope and Change”

    Hope — I hope that I am left with enough to retire on after BO and his ilk tax me like crazy because Mrs. Shore and I are “rich” and some other favored demographic needs ourt hard-earned income more than we and little shore needs it; and,

    Change — I hope the change they leave in my pocket will buy a decent cup of coffee.

  12. Shore Guy says:

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1153364/1/index.htm

    “What happens to many athletes and their money is indeed hard to believe. In this month alone Saints alltime leading rusher Deuce McAllister filed for bankruptcy protection for the Jackson, Miss., car dealership he owns; Panthers receiver Muhsin Muhammad put his mansion in Charlotte up for sale on eBay a month after news broke that his entertainment company was being sued by Wachovia Bank for overdue credit-card payments; and penniless former NFL running back Travis Henry was jailed for nonpayment of child support.

    “In a less public way, other athletes from the nation’s three biggest and most profitable leagues—the NBA, NFL and Major League Baseball—are suffering from a financial pandemic. Although salaries have risen steadily during the last three decades, reports from a host of sources (athletes, players’ associations, agents and financial advisers) indicate that:

    “• By the time they have been retired for two years, 78% of former NFL players have gone bankrupt or are under financial stress because of joblessness or divorce.

    “• Within five years of retirement, an estimated 60% of former NBA players are broke.”

  13. Shore Guy says:

    Who said the iPod is not essential for the beach (May not want to open up at work).

  14. Today begins the big shank to the markets that will create the phony deflation scare that will allow for QE3 or rate-capping UST notes or whatever form the next phase of the biggest daylight bank robbery in history will take.

  15. The stench of death is becoming more palatable with each passing day. When it gets too overwhelming, you can always duct tape your nose shut for an hour or two.

    A shot or two of grain alcohol seems to help, also.

  16. gary says:

    NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks appear headed for a fall at the opening of trading Thursday after the government reported an unexpectedly sharp jump in unemployment claims.

    Where’s Hobo? At what point in time do bands of war lords start roaming route 17 as if it were Mogadishu?

  17. Shore Guy says:

    Oops, what Gary said.

  18. homeboken says:

    19 Hobo – From the same ZH article – “The last time the 1M flirted with negative territory, the S&P was trading at 666. Today, we are about double that.

    I want to be long equity right now about as much as I want to wear a cheese grater for underwear.

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Oil finally tanking. Next week, I start refilling my personal SPR, that I have drawn down. Timed perfectly.

  20. Al Mossberg says:

    Carnage.

    Im showing a 4.25% rate on 30 year conforming. 0 points.

  21. gary says:

    Al [25],

    It’s a great time to buy as interest rates are the best ever, affordibility is at an all time high and there’s plenty of inventory to choose from! I read this on a realtor’s website so I know it’s true. :o

  22. Dan says:

    Yawn,

    4.25% 30? Let me know about 3.25%. Thanks.

  23. EssexGuest says:

    Have made an offer on a Montclair house, I now see in the disclosure from the seller the house has asbestos shingle siding :( [it’s been encapsulated with insulation triage siding, a type of vinyl siding I am told]. I hear it’s safe, but I am not sure how to react to this. Is this a deal-breaker for you all? I have two toddlers. Appreciate your opinion!
    EssexGuest

  24. Al Mossberg says:

    28.

    Montclair? Asbestos siding? Didnt the World Trade Center have asbestos in it? You saw what Larry Silverstein did to that building.

  25. ricky_nu says:

    Greek solidarty tax!!!! That will bring them together!!

  26. Nicholas says:

    Abestos removal and repair.

    http://www.ehso.com/ehshome/asbestoshomeshingles.php

    This looks like it has pretty accurate information on the topic you seek. If you plan on any additions or major outside renovations then I would seriously consider your options.

  27. Informative! I totally agree with your article about American home equity cut by one-third. Beach is a very brilliant Place to spend time. Thanks for sharing!!!

  28. danxp says:

    just out of curiosity… how much would it cost to build a new house on top of an existing foundation?

    my friend suggested i do just that instead of opting for buying a fixer upper and renovating myself…

    he said i should buy a crappy house on a decent lot for $300k, then knock it down and build a “new” house for $200k more… that seems quite low… anyone have any experience trying this approach?

  29. sx guest (28)-

    Asbestos siding is, to my knowledge, not dangerous or defective. However, you might want to get a home inspector’s opinion as to the wisdom of encapsulating it. Might create excessive heat, moisture or limit how well the house “breathes” (which, IMO, is very important).

  30. danxp (33)-

    Sounds like a great way to create the best house on the block…which is exactly the one you never want to own.

  31. SoccerDad (aka DeepThroat) says:

    What’s happening now in the market has been fairly predictable. As an investor for 30 years, who now has to live off his previous hobby, since the JP Morgan acquisition of Bear Stearns, this market has been totally “event driven.” Guess the event and win a prize. Fundamental analysis out the window. Isn’t it curious that just as QE2 ends, fear overtakes the market and gives the US ready buyers for it paper?
    The market will deteriorate until another form of government stimulus is announced. We are going into an election cycle. Will electro shock work again? 60/40 the patient is dead….but you never know. REal estate? doa,, what group is going to buy the baby boomers shacks?

  32. gary says:

    SoccerDad [36],

    Bergen County is insulated due to proximity to Manhattan. In fact, certain towns are bleeding wealth. You know, those towns that expect a “certain” type of buyer.

  33. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore [13, 15];

    Nice selections (and I am at work), but my opinion remains that the SI Swimsuit issue is strictly for HS freshmen and guys without the fortitude to walk through the front door of a real adult shop and buy the genuine articles.

  34. Al Mossberg says:

    37.

    Gary,

    Im going to buy now before I’m priced out forever.

  35. gary says:

    Al,

    Interest rates are at historic lows, you better act now!

  36. gary says:

    What to do when the house doesn’t sell? Why, raise the price, of course!

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3053111050-682-Eastern-Ct-Ridgewood-NJ-07450

  37. Al Mossberg says:

    41,

    Gary,

    Abe Lincoln would be proud of that crap shack.

  38. gary says:

    Al,

    That’s the price you pay for watching Graydon and Ellery’s mom pretend to be hip and young despite the spider veins on the back of the legs and the shades and heavy makeup to cover up the pain.

  39. homeboken says:

    Gary 41 – That house was bought in 1971 for 31,000, or 3.5 years of current property tax bills (8500).

  40. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gary [41];

    Maybe the extra $900 is because they bought a rigid inflatable boat to include with the deal. Will come in handy when the river makes it way up to the window sills.

  41. gary says:

    Moose [45],

    They should include something rigid and inflatable with the deal but I’m not sure it should be a boat! ;)

  42. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, a house in a flood plain that comes with a lifeboat makes sense to me. Just ask the people in Minot, ND.

  43. Dan says:

    Speaking of JJ, I hear the rumor that the Yankees might be after JJ Hardy, currently the Orioles shortstop in the offseason. They could tell him that next year he’s a utility guy getting 500 at bats playing part-time everywhere in the field and become the full time shortstop in 2013 as Jeter spends the year listening to applause as part-time infielder and DH.

    I’m surprised a certain someone here never brought up that name as his favorite player :)

  44. danxp says:

    33

    i guess nobody knows if it’s possible to build a “new” house on an existing foundation for $200k? my guess would be no…

  45. Nicholas says:

    danxp,

    I don’t think your question was well formed thus no one took a stab at it. The answer is overwhelmingly “yes”. Yes you can build a 200k house from the rubble of a 300k house. I have seen someone take the current house, raise it 15 feet, and build a first floor under it, then drop the first house onto the second.

    The real question would be, “is this a good idea”. And that clearly comes back as a “maybe” If all the other houses in the neighborhood are nice then it gives you some room to smarten your house up a bit with a major facelift. If it turns out your house is the best on the block after renovations, you probably are going to engaging in a labor of love.

    In general, you would want to check the depth of the footers of the house. This can only be done with a shovel, don’t ever take anyones word or construction diagrams. You certainly can always replace, with similar weight and shape, a new house in place of the old one. If you are looking to add a second floor or considerable weight to the house then you will need to consult a professional, tell him the depth of the footers and he will tell you if your plans are achievable and what your risks are.

    Try asking questions that are not open ended.

  46. The only investment one should make to any existing home is to create a hard perimeter.

  47. danxp says:

    thanks nicholas… that info is helpful…

    i deliberately asked the open-ended question to see if i could get any information at all… my home search is so expansive right now, i’m considering all options… problem is, as we all know, everything is still so overpriced and the REOs and short sales usually need so much work…

    i’m considering so many towns in bergen county right now… condos, townhouses, both single and multi-family units… made some offers and the sellers were still delusional… i check njmls almost hourly for new listings and there’s more and more all the time…

    if i can snag something for $250k, knock it down and put up that new house for another $250k, that would fall within my budget… i’m just gonna have to make sure that i don’t price myself out of the neighborhood as has been alluded to…

  48. danxp (53)-

    Your chances of winning the Powerball are greater than what you propose.

  49. Wow. One day of deflation scare, and here’s a former Fed gubnor already hinting at QE3:

    BROADDUS SAYS ANY DISINFLATION MAY PROMPT FED TO CONSIDER QE3
    BROADDUS SAYS FED UNDERSTANDING OF INFLATION HAS IMPROVED
    FORMER RICHMOND FED CHIEF BROADDUS SPEAKS ON BLOOMBERG TV

    We are headed directly for a Lehman (x10) catastrophic event here. Smoke ’em if you got ’em, boys.

  50. Juice Box says:

    re# 53- Think about modular there are a few reputable modular factories in PA. It shaves approx 1/3 off the price off a brand new home.

    http://www.havenhomes.com/

  51. x-everything says:

    danxp 53
    Unless out in the country, finding a teardown sounds good on paper but it’s rarely going to happen in a neighborhood you want to live in. You might find one but, after all it’s said and done, you’ll be staring at all your other neighbor’s crappy tear-down houses wishing you had just found a decent street to live on in the 1st place.

  52. danxp says:

    54 hobo

    so you’re saying it’s not possible to do a teardown and rebuild for $500k? i’m confused… nicholas just said it WAS possible…

  53. It is, however, going to be rip-roaring fun seeing the coordinated/manipulated events needed to fuel the deflation scare cascade onto the news.

  54. danxp (58)-

    It is possible to do a teardown and rebuild. I think 500K is a pipedream, in that the whole thing will either end in massive real cost overruns or result in creating a house whose value/quality basis is far in excess of the surrounding neighborhood.

    Look around your area. If there aren’t several people already doing what you’re proposing, you have your answer.

  55. Al Mossberg says:

    58,

    Why not just rent a nice place for a few years?

  56. Confused In NJ says:

    55.Hobo With a Shotgun says:
    June 23, 2011 at 2:03 pm

    We are headed directly for a Lehman (x10) catastrophic event here. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em, boys

    Not in NYC, Bloomberg has snipers stategically placed to snuff out smokers.

  57. Mike Krieger chimes in, right on schedule:

    The Bernank Flop: Part Deux

    “That’s two press conferences laden with softball questions from “the press” and two epic flops by The Bernank. Two extremely important things that came out of the disaster that was this event yesterday. First, I want to point your attention to the quote I pasted at the top. In response to the question of where The Bernank stood on monetary policy in light of his prior arrogant and c@cksure statements a decade earlier about how the Japanese were being too passive in their methods he stated “Well, I’m a little bit more sympathetic to central bankers now than I was 10 years ago.” BINGO. That was far and away the most important thing he said the whole press conference. Why? Well, for several reasons. First, it was pretty much the only spontaneous unscripted thing he said the whole time. Second, because this is him basically admitting that sitting in an ivory tower telling others how to save the free world via monetary policy was a naive and idiotic thing to do (why people still believe in central banking, I mean planning, is beyond me). Talk is cheap and The Bernank now has had time to test his sad statist theories and guess what happened? He failed miserably in front of the entire world. By saying that he is “more sympathetic to central bankers” he is saying that theories are one thing and he now realizes that. This is HUGE. The Bernank has no clothes.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-krieger-widespread-panic

  58. Libtard in the City says:

    Gary,

    Any time a listing starts with “Location,Location,Location !!!” it really means the house is a “POS, POS, POS !!!” This is even more the case when the realtor can’t find the space bar on her keyboard.

  59. danxp says:

    61

    i’m renting right now and am totally fine with it if i don’t get what i’m looking for…

  60. grim says:

    Quick rule of thumb is to shoot for a final home value of 3x the lot price. If you buy the lot for 300k, the finished house should be around 900k. Otherwise payback is going to be tough.

  61. Show me the tungsten, said Ron Paul.

    “Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology Subcommittee Chairman Ron Paul is currently holding a hearing on legislation calling for a full audit of U.S. gold reserves. H.R. 1495, the “Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2011,” calls for an audit by the Treasury that gives a full and thorough accounting of the U.S. government’s gold reserves, requiring an inventory and assay of the gold reserves. The Treasury’s audit is subject to independent review by the Government Accountability Office, allowing them access to any pertinent records or locations, including Fort Knox. “The Treasury Department has been less than transparent with the results of its gold audits,” Paul stated. “It is asking the American people to trust that all the gold is there, while not allowing site visits and not publishing all the data it holds on its audits and assays. Since most of this gold was originally seized from the American people in the 1930s, they deserve more transparency than a handful of financial statements.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ron-paul-currently-holding-hearing-legislation-full-audit-us-gold-reserves-aka-show-me-tungs

  62. grim (66)-

    Anyone trying to build on an old foundation may also find trouble getting financing and insurance. Forget trying to obtain a NJ builder warranty, as the program won’t cover houses built on existing foundations.

  63. Oops, I forgot: we shipped all our gold-Krylon sprayed tungsten to China a few years ago.

  64. We gave China tungsten painted gold, and they gave us a bunch of lead painted toys.

  65. hughesrep says:

    69

    I think this guy ran the program?

    http://tinyurl.com/Bernanke-s-Brother

  66. Shore Guy says:

    So, Kinderhook is back in Asbury on the first?

  67. hughesrep (71)-

    If you’re going to huff spray paint, go for the gold.

    Thanks for making my week. That’s fcuking hilarious. I’m trying to figure out if the guy in that mug shot is still high on the paint, or just permanently brain damaged.

  68. Bernankicide. Kinda catchy term, eh?

    “Elliott: As you say it is kabuki theater, and as Phil says, we don’t care if the markets are rigged, we just need to know HOW the market is rigged so we can place our bets correctly.

    Lee: Exactly. All you need to know is what the Fed is doing. That’s my bread and butter. I watch what the Fed is doing every day. I’m so familiar with the data that stuff jumps out and screams at me. The margins increases were not an accident. They were completely out of character, and they followed Bernanke’s press conference where he claimed he couldn’t stop speculation. He’s so manipulative. He says one thing and does another.

    Elliott: But being Chairman of the Fed, doesn’t he have to lie? If he came out and said exactly what he’s planning to do, wouldn’t everyone and his dog get on the right side of the trade?

    Lee: That’s what he does though – he lies, but in his backchannel way. He tells the favored groups exactly what he’s going to do. You have to read between the lines. The meeting minutes are pure propaganda. That is how they send coded messages to the market.

    In the last meeting minutes, or maybe the one before, the Fed said that wage increases were to be eradicated. I went ballistic when I saw that.

    Elliott: Especially because they create all this inflation, and it trickles it’s way down. This is trickle down inflation. It’s gotten to the point where the people trying to make a living and ultimately buy things are being told that although prices are going up, we can’t allow you to earn anymore money…

    Lee: It’s a moral outrage and a terrible policy. But that’s what they want. Their purpose is to keep the bankers in business. The Fed serves the banking system. That’s why it’s there, to make sure the banking system is profitable.

    Ilene: So they are accomplishing their goal.

    Lee: For the time being. In the end they cannot fulfill their purpose because the banking system is dead. This is Frankenstein’s monster. This is another one of Bernanke’s economic science experiments, Dr. Bernankenstein. And the result of his policies is bernankicide – the financial genocide of the elderly in America.

    Elliott: Then if Dr. Bernanke is Dr. Frankenstein, then what exactly is his monster?”

    http://ilene.typepad.com/ourfavorites/2011/06/a-blinking-idiot-the-banking-system.html

  69. NJ Toast says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Layoffs-housing-data-point-to-apf-3793105661.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Sour reports Thursday on the number of people who sought unemployment benefits and buyers of new homes illustrate what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged Wednesday: Many factors weighing on the economy are proving to be more chronic than first imagined…

  70. Shore Guy says:

    If any regulars are going to be around Easton PA tomorrow let me know. Grim can get you my e-mail address.

  71. Shore Guy says:

    “number of people who sought unemployment benefits”

    Companies do not hire to put people to work, they hire to accomplish tasks. As long as we are not making enough things that people need, we will not provide a meaningful number of good jobs for people. If we stop making it so difficult for business owners to operate and make a profit, companies will be in a better position to hire people. This is not rocket science.

    I know a guy in NY State and if one of his employees disregards safety training and the direct instructions of a foreman and, as a result, falls off a roof or suffers som other injury, regardless of any preventative action his company takes, and regardless of how at fault the employee is, the employee can collect enhanced disability payments under the Scaffold Law.

  72. Shore Guy says:

    This is old but is in sync with what I have heard:

    http://www.bcnys.org/whatsnew/2007/060507-scaffoldlaw2.htm

    snip

    “The ‘Scaffold Law,’ sections 240/241 of the state’s Labor Law, imposes absolute liability on New York’s property-owners and contractors in cases of worksite injuries. This means that, in claims stemming from worksite injuries, these owners and contractors cannot even defend themselves by introducing evidence of their own commitment to safety or of worker negligence,” said Kenneth Adams, president and CEO of The Business Council.

    “In this way, New York State has abandoned the common-sense fairness standard of letting people defend themselves against accusations,” Adams added. “The effects of the Scaffold Law are nasty: inflated business insurance costs, and higher costs of goods, services, and taxes for all New Yorkers.”

    Adams argued that the Scaffold Law’s absolute-liability standard should be replaced by a fairer negligence-based standard.

    The Scaffold Law affects farmers by increasing construction costs of agricultural buildings, including dairy barns, milking parlors, cold storage facilities, packing houses, and other large structures.

    The Scaffold Law makes construction costs of agricultural buildings in New York far higher than similar structures in other states or other parts of the world. This puts New York farmers at a competitive disadvantage and forces extreme liability exposure in the agricultural community.

    snip

  73. Barbara says:

    Seeing reductions this week on “the nice houses.” Always 15k here, 10k there. Needs to be a change in that 6th digit, folks. Nobody’s biting.

    In other news, I am finishing up refis on all my properties. One company is taking care of it. Now, keep in mind I never did a fraudy mortgage during the bubble, so when it comes to paper work and documentation, I’m old school. Having said, the amount of documentation was beyond anything I experienced in the 90s, and these were investment properties. Right down to our marriage license. That one was new to me. I’m waiting for a last minute FED EX containing a blood sample kit.

  74. livinginpa says:

    #79, back when we bought our first house in the 90’s, the lender actually made me photocopy my graduate degree diploma – a transcript would not do. Not sure what that did for them, but I did oblige. Today, not sure I could locate said diploma or our marriage license.

  75. Barbara says:

    80.
    We were married in LV so we have the actual marriage license and a souvenir certificated printed over an image of Elvis. I briefly thought about sending that one.

  76. Barbara says:

    -d

  77. NJCoast says:

    Danxp-

    I bought a house in 1982 and in 1995 tore it down and built new. The original house was the carriage house to the oceanfront manse to the east. It had no basement but we ended up pulling out all the existing footings as we were not building on the same footprint and adding a basement. The total cost of demolition and carting it all away was $12,400 in 1995.

    As far as cost goes, it all depends on the finishes you put in the house. A nice home runs about $200 a sq ft, with a builder. You can save alot if you are the general contractor. Be warned it is a full time job, I was at the site or suppliers everyday, all day.

  78. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, NJC. Welcome back.

  79. Shore Guy says:

    Did you see that your old buddies Kinderhook are at the Stone Pony in a few days? We will be there the following night.

  80. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    been watching Calhoun? Multiple upstream dams near capacity and the snowpack hasn’t started it’s main melt phase yet.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    Yes,

    I was going to post a link to something earlier but the friggen android would not let me. They have a bit of a mess there and seem to be relying on a temporary water-filled berm to keep the facility safe.

    One dam release upstream or a good thunder storm and….

  82. Shore Guy says:

    By the way, who builds a nuclear power plant in a flood plain of a major river that suffers major floods and does NOT build serious berms and levees to protect it?

    About now, I would be installing some temporary diesel generators on the roof and running cables to the pumps, just in case.

  83. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    atbleast one upstream dam is at 100% discharge capacity and still has rising water levels.

    Also hearing multiple claims of fuel damage already having occured and local private rad detectors spiking briefly about a week ago.

    That plant probably faces a 50/50 chance of a major disaster right now. At least the American fukushima would only cover 1 reactor and not 4. Too bad we are in the path of the primary fallout.

  84. Shore Guy says:

    As Memphis Minnie and Kansas Joe might have sung (and Led Zep, appropriated as their own):

    If the levee breaks
    The Nuke Plant pumps are gonna fail
    If the levee breaks
    The Nuke Plant pumps are gonna fail
    If the cooling pumps fail
    Omaha will go to Hell

  85. Shore Guy says:

    Omaha, DesMoines, Iowa City, Quad Cities, Minneapolis, Madison, Rockford, Chicago, Indianapolis, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Windsor, London Ont., Toledo, Dayton, Columbus, Wheeling, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Montreal, Buffalo, the Northeast north of Baltimore, should all be nervous if any fuel starts burning.

    I am surprised they are not casking rods from the spent-fuel pool and getting the stuff off site. With Fuk-U-Shima, it is bad enough having radioactive water washing into the big-blue sea, cascading down to omaha, KC, Columbia, St. Louis and into a flooding Mississippi is far worse. “Fasten your seatbelts, it going to be a bumpy evening.”

  86. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    if Calhoun becomes inundated then the number 1 lesson from fukushima is believe nothing the government reports and assume worst case scale releases. It is the only logical response to such an event if you have loved ones who you care about.

    And just for entertainment, check out the following and don’t forget to take a few Kg of iodated NaCl with the article:

    http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/International/18-Jun-2011/US-orders-news-blackout-over-crippled-Nebraska-Nuclear-Plant-report

  87. Shore Guy says:

    If there is a problem there, I don’t care how small, I wonder how many hours it will take before masses of people start assembling in Forked River demanding Oyster Creek, a.k.a. Fukushima East, be closed immediately?

  88. Shore Guy says:

    No news blackout, just limited investigative-reporting budgets and newsrooms that are stretched thin, combined with reporters and editors who are not technically savvy or curious. We can discuss over a drink sometime.

  89. Shore Guy says:

    One last thought, beyond spoon-fed news and titilating stories, the American press is really letting down the American public. it is a bloody shame.

  90. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    off loading the spent fuel pool would be a very good idea but not feasable if they already had a fuel damage event onsite as has been claimed.

    They are already underresponding to the potential risk at Calhoun. They should have and still be building multiple layers of Temporary berms and higher then they have. Right now the risk of upstream flood control failures is very real even without additional rain. Yet they ate still forcasting potentially significant amounts of rain

  91. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    time to see whether the family prefers uraguay or chile, just inncase. If Calhoun were to be lost it’s time to think about hearing south of the equator

  92. Shore Guy says:

    They are already underresponding to the potential risk at Calhoun.

    I agree. There were private homeowners who built more substantial flood protection down in LA to mitigate flooding from the Mississippi.

    Right now we should be seeing front end loaders building multiple rings around that plant. With the poor response, one would think that Bernanke is in charge of the NRC.

  93. Shore Guy says:

    Hey, Toronto! A gift from the Midwest.

  94. Shore Guy says:

    No need to go south, just go west. Maybe somewhere near Diablo Canyon. I hear it is nice.

  95. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Fukushima East coming to the continental US, have heard nary a peep on the news. It would seem we are in deep sh*t, as usual what is important is overlooked.

  96. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Hey what is going on with the bachelorette, we must keep our priorities strait.

  97. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 101

    I hear the japanese province of Fukushima has some dirt cheap RE on the market right now.

  98. Shore Guy says:

    And the crops and certain wildlife grow HUGE.

  99. Shore Guy says:

    And, one need not have candles during dinner, just leave the salad greens in a bowl and they provide a lovely glow.

  100. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    even if we lost calhoun i am not confident people would demand the closure of places like oyster creek. The average joe doesnt have the background knowledge and the media is owned bymajor corporations that have a stake in such a response NOT occurring.

    The other nasty little catch 22 is that unless O issues an emergency edict re-opening Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, there isnt any place to move the massive amount of spent fuel to….

  101. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore 105

    The crops may grow mega sized but not the bunny ears….

  102. Shore Guy says:

    There was no need for folks in the US to bother with KI after Fuk-U-Shima; however, should anything go seriously wrong in Omaha, I will not hesitate to get a bunch for the family. I may anyway, heck, we keep other things on hand, why not that?

  103. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    Bernanke may actually be in charge of calhoun. If Calhoun goes up imagine what happens to RE prices outside of the primary fallout zone! the prices of US RE would spike due to the HUGE # of people who would be directly down wind of Calhoun!!!!

  104. babs (79)-

    Good on you. Hope they don’t follow through with the blood test thingy, although I’m sure you would “pass”.

    Welcome to the brave new world in which banksters prefer to trade in a market in which they can book profits every single day for an entire quarter rather than lend to businesses and finance performing commercial real estate.

    I hope you clearly see now how fcuking fuct we all are.

  105. Kettle1^2 says:

    ok, off to browse glow in the dark anime pron!

  106. Shore Guy says:

    “unless O issues an emergency edict re-opening Yucca Mountain ”

    If there is a big problem in Omaha, the empty-suit-in-chief will be down there digging with a spoon if he has to to get Yucca open. At that point the theoretical long-term problems with Yucca will be so vastly outweighed by the actual threat posed by SFPs that he will have to say “the heck with opposition from Nevada, I am writing off the 4 or 5 electoral votes it has.”

  107. Shore Guy says:

    Bunnies need ears no more than a whale needs a tail. Relax. Everything is under control.

  108. shore (84)-

    Ms. Finch is the owner of a massive softball training facility in Flemington, NJ (along with Jack Cust of the Oakland A’s). Hope their property taxes are current.

  109. shore (89)-

    Why take precautions when you have the opportunity to possibly cook every living thing in the Midwest?

  110. vodka (90)-

    Right about now, I wouldn’t mind being toasted in a massive fallout catastrophe.

  111. Shore Guy says:

    “I wouldn’t mind being toasted in a massive fallout catastrophe”

    I suspect that Essex and Sastry would be willing to help make it happen for you, lol. (just kidding folks).

  112. vodka (98)-

    Prefer Chile over Uruguay, by a whisker. Chile seems to have a slightly better attitude toward individual property rights.

    However, Uruguay produces a sick amount of great footballers relative to the total population of 3mm.

  113. Shore Guy says:

    Kettle,

    This photo is a week old and shows how pathetic the efforts were to keep water from the plant. At this point nobody can drive in or out, they are traveling by boat.

    http://www.omaha.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=OW&Date=20110623&Category=NEWS01&ArtNo=110629889&Ref=AR&maxw=490&maxh=275

  114. shore (113)-

    You overestimate Bojangles. This is a guy who already visited Puerto Rico in an attempt to whore whatever future votes he can get there.

  115. Shore Guy says:

    I feel better already:
    snip
    “OPPD: If you look closely in the photos, our plant, [Fort Calhoun] our substation and other buildings are dry behind berms, sandbag walls and AquaDams. The plant is secure from water to the 1,014 feet above sea level elevation (the river is now at 1,006). It also has diesel generators and additional fuel staged to provide power from on site.”
    snip

    http://nebraska.statepaper.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2011/06/23/4e0317ffcd968

  116. Shore Guy says:

    Puerto Rico was more about current votes from the diaspora, which outnumbers the number of people living on the island.

  117. Shore Guy says:

    NPPD: It is unlikely the Missouri River water will reach the reactor building. Our operational procedures and “beyond-the-design” strategies serve as protection, but we also have physically protected the reactor building from water. Four-foot-high barricades are in place both outside and inside the building. … The water would have to be above 907 feet sea level elevation before it would intrude the building. That is an approximate 7-foot rise to the river’s current water level [Wed, June 22].

    Read more: http://journalstar.com/news/local/article_6845dfa2-7096-55aa-ab9d-6ee403e1a163.html#ixzz1Q9u3sOIj

  118. Kettle1^2 says:

    shore

    The Corps of Engineers gave them about 2 weeks heads up that flooding was coming, and this is the best response they could manage? They could have and should have ring fenced the entire facility including ingress and egress routes with multiple layers of berms.

  119. Kettle1^2 says:

    it turns out that glow in the dark anime pron isnt really that exciting :(

  120. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    do you really believe that the press releases are little more then propoganda?

  121. Al Mossberg says:

    FORTESCUE, Missouri – A flash flood warning has been issued for west central Holt County in northwest Missouri after a levee breach near Fortescue.

    The breach was reported shortly after 1:30 p.m. along Levee #9 south of Fortescue.
    http://www.nbcactionnews.com/dpp/news/state/missouri/levee-breaches-near-fortescue

    Some pics in the link.

  122. chicagofinance says:

    clot: How did you whiff on this backdoor QE3? I was away today and expected you to be all over it.
    “This looks more like a perception move by the U.S. government and the Europeans to alleviate high crude prices.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-23/-head-scratcher-petroleum-release-to-inflate-u-s-crude-glut.html

    Hobo With a Shotgun says:
    June 23, 2011 at 2:03 pm
    Wow. One day of deflation scare, and here’s a former Fed gubnor already hinting at QE3: BROADDUS SAYS ANY DISINFLATION MAY PROMPT FED TO CONSIDER QE3 BROADDUS SAYS FED UNDERSTANDING OF INFLATION HAS IMPROVED
    FORMER RICHMOND FED CHIEF BROADDUS SPEAKS ON BLOOMBERG TV
    We are headed directly for a Lehman (x10) catastrophic event here. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em, boys.

  123. Dan says:

    Shore Guy,

    Top 25 SI pictures and no Cathy Ireland or Elle MacPherson??????

  124. Terrific review! This is exactly the type of post that should be shared around the web. Shame on the Google for not positioning this blog post higher!

  125. OldSchool says:

    DanXP,

    Doing a tear down right now. Bought property in great NJ town for $270 last fall. In midst of finalizing costs to build 2500 sf house–cost coming in around 400-405–including demo but no garage. Does not include the architectural fees we have paid for design. Material costs still high.

    Old School

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